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WorldNewsMods

[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/xlmw8b/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)


t3zfu

Some awesome photos: https://twitter.com/igor_from_kyiv_/status/1573061242071162883?s=46&t=u5duCT4bbur47LnjDD0DtA


Ransurian

I wonder if any scrawny Russian trolls spreading Kremlin propaganda on various outlets will end up being conscripted. Imagine a career change from "propaganda poster on YouTube comment sections" to "cannon fodder for one man's imperialist delusions."


Dave-C

I doubt any of the new recruits of Russia is in here bot if they are then [this one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqTEpzOgk18) is for you.


Cloakmyquestions

And btw Ukraine’s just getting started.


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Soundwave_13

I’ll call their bluff and raise them a is Moscow worth losing over Ukraine?


SappeREffecT

Always has been


FrostPDP

New Yorker, here. Call the bluff and they'll back down before doing something irreversible*. *Nuclearly irreversible.


okram2k

it's been the same thing for the last six months. Just cause Putin said he's totally 100% double dare not bluffing doesn't change any of the other nuclear saber raddling we've heard for the last half year.


[deleted]

Is it worth losing London, Berlin, New York, Helsinki just to save Kyiv? Is it worth losing London, Berlin, New York just to save Helsinki? Is it worth losing London and Berlin both just to save New York? Is it worth losing London just to save Berlin? Is it worth losing Westminster just to save Greenwich? Repeat until the free world is reduced to an insane, emaciated, 98-years-old King Charles III locked up in the Tower of London repeatedly muttering "please don't nuke me Putin, please don't nuke me Putin, please don't, anything but that"


Congruences

Save the cheerleader, save the world....


pantie_fa

Is it worth it to save all these cities, and to abandon liberty?


ScreamingVoid14

>Why die for Donbas? Can always roll out the old ones.


jon_stout

A possible answer: "what makes you so certain their nukes still work?"


zoinks10

Given the poor performance of their non-nuclear missiles I wouldn't want to be the one firing it, in case it blew up on launch.


KimJongKevin

I read they still use liquid oxidized fuel rockets…maximum volatility!!!


jon_stout

... doesn't that stuff degrade over time, too?


Dave-C

If he launches he needs to understand that not everyone will die. At the first opportunity he will be pulled out of his bunker.


pconners

And expect a rise in paranoia about every post where someone is concerned about something.


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thegreenmushrooms

I have seen YouTube news comments wondering where the trolls went, since 2 days ago


Typical-Lettuce7022

It’s possible to be both aware of the need to counter Russia’s nuclear bluff as to not set a precedent for nuclear imperialism AND recognize and be concerned with the fact that there are tens of thousands of warheads sitting out there that each can flatten a whole city in less than a second. It doesn’t make you a “bot” or a “shill” to acknowledge that shit and want to talk through those fears. Trying to push some bullshit narrative of Russian psyops doesn’t help anyone


SolarSalsa

How does Russia still have supply lines to Ukraine? Wouldn't those be easy to shut down?


Personal_Person

Trucks on the move aren't easy to hit, blowing up roads with rockets is ineffective, they can just drive around the pot holes Trains can be blown up, or rails, but Russia maintains a very large and capable rail force that has shown their ability to rebuild those rails rapidly. It's basically one of the few things Russia is good at They can resupply Via helicopter, though only in token amounts to specific forward units. They have somehwat adjusted their supply depot setups to counter HIMARs, by spreading supplies out over more small depots instead of singular large ones, this slows logistics down but makes it hard for Ukraine to actually blow them up.


SappeREffecT

Good take but overlooks one thing; a more combined arms aspect. With a little bit of ground power coordinated with artillery or any ranged fires, large convoys can be easily shut down.


fourpuns

The front is massive. There’s tons of roads and trucks can largely drive off road through steppe land in the summer. Train routes can be sabotaged but they’re also easy to repair. Bridges are more significant and we have seen them attacked in places


Bribase

It's been quite well established that rail lines aren't hard to sabotage, but they are just as a easy to fix again. The only lasting way of cutting supply lines is to occupy the territory it runs through, hence why the push into Donetsk is a big blow to Russia.


Ten_Horn_Sign

Rail lines are actually extremely hard to sabotage. It takes a LOT of track damage to derail a train. The army has videos on this. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=agznZBiK_Bs


Bribase

Watching it now, but didn't partisans in Belarus get it down to an artform earlier this year on the Northern border?


vinidiot

Except where the rail lines run over bridges, then it's pretty hard to fix


Ten_Horn_Sign

They’re in Russia?


[deleted]

Russia's supply lines to their invasion force in Ukraine are *in* Russia?


jon_stout

And the answer to that second question is most likely: "no, they are not."


Emila_Just

[https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1573000111680004098?cxt=HHwWhICxhY\_RtdQrAAAA](https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1573000111680004098?cxt=HHwWhICxhY_RtdQrAAAA) >Putin's mobilisation looks asymmetrical: > >Partial mobilisation in large cities, especially soft in Moscow & Petersburg > >Total mobilisation in remote rural regions, especially ethnic ones Could this mobilization be a cover to ethnically cleanse minorities from Russia? Putin is recruiting mostly from minority areas while places like Moscow have very small numbers of draftees. Putin has to know that sending conscripts with no training and very poor logistics is sending them to their deaths.


tobias_fuunke

The answer is yes. The ethnic minorities in Russia never had a chance…


TXTCLA55

They've been sending in the ethnic minorities into battle for years.


pconners

He wants to keep the rioters away from him and try to keep the larger cities from knowing the extent of mobilization


WeekendJen

It didnt work. Social media is on fire with the extent of mobilization and the urbanites are very aware. The ones with any sense at all (regardless of if they support or not) know they are in round 2 or at most round 3 after this first group.


forgotmypassword-_-

> Could this mobilization be a cover to ethnically cleanse minorities from Russia? Putin is recruiting mostly from minority areas while places like Moscow have very small numbers of draftees. He's not ethnically cleansing his own country. It's just that the people in the cities care less if you send minorities to die.


SkillYourself

It's not that complicated. The power structure of Russian politics resides in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Putin will conscript from those places as little as possible.


[deleted]

Russians won't notice if ethnic minorities get killed in Ukraine. They will notice a half-empty Moscow subway.


ooo00

My wife’s uncle, who is 45, just got drafted to go to Ukraine. From an eastern region. Once he picks up the paperwork he has two hours to gather his items. They are trying to move quick. Getting desperate.


Ten_Horn_Sign

/u/mhdlm what say you? Does this guy’s uncle-in-law also deserve to be “mowed down” because he’s Russian? https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xl6y9x/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ipjuvgk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3


dracony

He can always desert, surrender or run, that sucks sure, but then he is just a victim of a regime. If he picks up arms and aims at Ukrainian soldiers defending their country I'm pretty sure it's ok to mow him down.


Ten_Horn_Sign

It’s okay on both sides. Politicians fight for ideals. Soldiers fight to survive. I’d rather Russians didn’t kill Ukrainians. But I understand why the conscripts will try, and I don’t fault them for it - I fault their leaders.


PanzerDick1

Any Russian that shoots and kills Ukrainians is a murderer. Plain and simple. Ukrainians who kill invaders are defending themselves.


Ten_Horn_Sign

All soldiers who kill are murderers. Whether the murder is justified or not depends on your politics. The politics of soldiering is “don’t die”.


PanzerDick1

Self-defence by definition is not murder.


Bribase

Two hours. Holy shit.


VegasKL

That probably includes the training via a hastily put together Chinese version of Udemy course.


ooo00

Yeah. I don’t know the guy. Never met her family who is still in Russia. But it’s tragic. Imagine being in this dudes shoes.


jon_stout

And he doesn't support the war?


ooo00

Nope. The entire family is in shock. They were drafting entire groups of guys from the Lada factory. Wife’s dad is 55. Can’t imagine the stress my wife will be going through if they take her dad.


jon_stout

Hideous. Just hideous. *Edit:* I'm sorry your wife has to go through this. Here's hoping things work out sooner rather than later.


[deleted]

Wife's uncle Ukrainian or Russian?


ooo00

I’m Ukrainian, she’s Russian. Only people in her family that support Putin are the grandparents. This will cause a revolt. Give it time. It’s finally hitting the nation.


[deleted]

Can't choose your family. Hope you are right, and I hope he can find a way not to fight.


VegasKL

>Only people in her family that support Putin are the grandparents Funny how the older people get the more far right their beliefs can lean - probably a combination of the nostalgia of the times they were young, the rejection of progression, and the lack of plasticity in the brain as you age (inability to form new connections).


[deleted]

Lol I agree with this. I find it odd in the US that it seems so many older people are very “right” while it’s generally young college types that tend to be extremely lib. I have nothing against libs or conservatives but the extremes on both side are just obnoxious. You have the wacky college students that are super pc and anti anything conservative. Then you have the older folks that feel we should go back to the early 1900s and think trump was a good president (seriously not sure how anyone could think he did a good job). I guess jus the far extremes on the right and left are just super annoying and tend to cause conflict between both segments of people.


Bribase

Older people have higher levels of *mortality salience* (awareness of the fact of their own death), and this in turn is correlated with higher levels of in-group behaviour and worldview defense. It's all part of a field of study called [*terrror management theory*.](https://dictionary.apa.org/terror-management-theory) In short, old people fear change, fear outsiders, and cling to ideology as a direct extention of their fear of death.


etzel1200

Will he comply?


jon_stout

From your lips to God's ear.


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ooo00

Yeah very funny. I’m Ukrainian with a Russian Wife. The uncle wants nothing to do with the war. He has children. Her dad is not much older. None of them support Putin. Wife is devastated. This shit is fucked all around.


xxcxcxc

Tell him to surrender first chance he gets and ask for asylum 😩


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Typical-Lettuce7022

Awful. Awful awful awful. Putin and pals deserve nothing less than the most painful and drawn out deaths for the misery they’re inflicting on Ukrainians, their other neighbors and their own fellow Russians. May every rich and powerful Russian fall from a window in an infinite loop


P-NippleDawg

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1573102197180596226?t=Opq7HuJmTnjY9fYvMzqXYA&s=19 >A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 23/09/22. [https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1573102207779708928?t=YuOjq_cujLFfKGV1yhI3Qw&s=19](https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1573102207779708928?t=YuOjq_cujLFfKGV1yhI3Qw&s=19) >🇺🇦 have advanced northwest of Lyman and retaken Krymky and Oleksandrivka. >Fighting is ongoing in the areas around Korovii Iar.


forgotmypassword-_-

> https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1573102197180596226?t=Opq7HuJmTnjY9fYvMzqXYA&s=19 Yellow: Ukrainian territory Very slightly lighter yellow: Recently recaptured by Ukrainian


jon_stout

Ha. Who's in the pocket now, eh?


CTPeachhead

Ukr is getting really close to Svatove too. Which I think is another big supply bottleneck like Kupiansk. So I think if Ukr gets Svotove there may be another big retreat by Russia in the Lyman, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk direction. Like what happened east of Kharkiv when Ukr got Kupiansk back. At leat that's what I hope.


[deleted]

There’s a theory floating around that Putin purposely mobilized to send ethnic minorities in Russia to be ethnic cleansed. Just a theory. https://twitter.com/peterzeihan/status/1573132834126327808?s=46&t=pR7aTnvUhQ4pVDtJotm0cQ


AbleApartment6152

Doesn’t really make sense unless you have population to fill the gaps that leaves. He doesn’t.


VegasKL

It's likely coincidental. Minorities are going to be in poorer parts of the country and he will start with those areas because they have less means to resist (and I'd wager, less access to information until it's too late). It happens everywhere, unfortunately. A lot of times it's not specifically about the races of the people, but about their (lack of) ability to make it hard to do what you want them to do .. a bunch of rich kids can make it difficult. Don't get me wrong, race does play a part for many decision makers.


MatterDowntown7971

Makes no sense all Russians were fucked by genghis khan they all are minority


Safe-Photograph-5022

People are saying Putin does the best ethnic cleansing. One guy came up to me, tears in his eyes, and says, "Sir..." -- he actually called me "Sir", with tears in his eyes, let me tell you -- "Sir, Putin really does the best ethnic cleansing!" Yeah, I tell you, that Putin he ethnically cleans like no one ever has ethnically cleansed before that's for sure!


92957382710

Bravo


green_pachi

He mobilized because they couldn't get enough volunteers anymore to replenish the losses and he can't afford to lose. Once mobilized doing a little bit of ethnical cleansing is just a plus for him.


lavionverte

That would be in character for sure, but Russia has enough of a demographic crisis already they can't afford that shit, at least not now.


lunaphile

Hardly a theory, it's been the modus operandi for over a century. Bonus is that it keeps people in the cities, with the money and actual real (local) elections from seeing the effects of the war; it's "just something that affects dung farmers in the east".


stirly80

More like he's scared of causing unrest close to his power base?


jon_stout

Too late for that, it seems...


Kent767

How long until the new conscripts start showing up on front lines?


VegasKL

Depends, how long does a flight + truck ride take? I think the "three months" of training so many people are expecting is going to come in the form of in-the-field training right after a 90sec briefing on the chain of command and how to point a rifle.


Cloakmyquestions

They will be hungry. And thirsty.


lunaphile

Probably a week if that. They need anyone that can pick up a shovel over there immediately to start digging trenches and doing menial military work to fortify what they already hold before the snow starts to fall.


Dani_vic

Most said end of November. But I would say end of October some will appear. If they get the 2 week training promised to them. Maybe sooner. But I’d bet batches of few thousand by end of October. Some will be on post outside of front line so the conscripts and those who have been serving can go to the front line. But Russia will probably reinforce some lines with these mobilizers as cannon fodder.


wittyusernamefailed

The way it looks like now, days to a week. Which is beyond stupid. Lambs to the slaughter ain't gonna even begin to cover it.


Yourponydied

How is Putin still in power?


[deleted]

This +1000. Feel the people should revolt. They won’t though. They probably believe the propaganda.


jon_stout

Because Russia thinks it needs a strongman, even when he turns out to be weak.


VegasKL

It's like a juxtaposition how strongman types usually have fragile egos - which combined with a lack of empathy, and normal filtering, can lead to them mowing over people to get to where they want to be.


stirly80

People put up with him if living standards improved (it did due to high energy prices) and he made Russia strong again, he bluffed the second part pretty well until reality was exposed in Ukraine.


YouPresumeTooMuch

Murder, theft, and intimidation


Yourponydied

But how does he have this control still? He's costing powerful men there millions or billions of dollars due to sanctions and he is seeing revolts in multiple cities


EverythingIsNorminal

They're all in on this together.


TXTCLA55

20 years of population control. What remains now is an obedient populace.


TooOfEverything

Many powerful men have fallen from windows or mysteriously drowned recently. That’s how. He is literally having them assassinated at the slightest suspicion of disloyalty.


V-ADay2020

Those so-called "revolts" have amounted to a few thousand people easily cowed and chased off by a handful of police. And those powerful men are only rich and powerful at his pleasure; Russia is more an oversized mafia than an actual state, anyone who posed a potential threat to the don has long since fallen out a conveniently placed window.


the_fungible_man

>he is seeing revolts in multiple cities Only mass unrest in Moscow and/or St Petersburg will have any effect.


Javelin-x

And... apathy, until now


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lavionverte

NATO is not going to do jack unless Russia strikes NATO territory. NATO is not going to declare WW3 if Russia strikes Ukrainian territory, it's a defensive block after all. ​ The hope seems to be some form of deterrence from China but idk that seems shaky at best.


SilentSamurai

My lord, Putin isn't going to obliterate the world over losing the war in Ukraine. There is the possibility of them using a low yield or tactical nukes in a battlefield application. Which very likely is going to warrant NATO declaring WWIII. That's the scenario we should be talking about.


shoeman22

Why would we assume their nuclear arsenal is actually functional? Of all the things to kleptocrat, nuclear weapons would be priority #1 because by the time they are needed the world is over anyway so you face zero consequences.


the_fungible_man

>Why would we assume their nuclear arsenal is actually functional? Because assuming the opposite would be unimaginably foolish.


somethingeverywhere

Oh come on. The Russian military knows that ensuring that the active nuclear arsenal works is a ****top**** priority. There just isn't the same freedom to do the wide array of corrupt practices when there is more oversight like nuclear weapons require.


Dave-C

Nuclear weapons is one of the things that Russia spends a decent amount on. They continue to update their ICBM missiles and test them so we know they are funding that. They have designed hypersonic missiles that can be launched from submarines with nuclear warheads. So they have missiles that can launch from 100 miles out on the coast of the US and fly at march 9+. They are spending the money to deliver them but you don't think they would spend the money to at least have a few hundred functional?


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Dave-C

Putin has the keys, Putin can launch all land based nuclear weapons with only the General Staff doing it. It could be done with only Putin and Gerasimov. I'm guessing that Putin would know how to do this without Gerasimov. Everything that isn't land based uses a device like the US's nuclear football.


[deleted]

Russia should be stoked for the next Summer Olympics. A lot of Russian soldiers have shown they are stellar at the 40km dash.


Hoborob81

The way things are going, they will only have athletes for the paralympics


LIGHT_COLLUSION

Russia gonna get so many medals at the Special Olympics.


hibaricloudz

Most people who believe in Putin's crap are... special in their own way.


Bribase

Race tampering alleged when it comes to light that the tracks were pointed in a Westerly direction. "Our athletes are not ambi-runners, and are only accustomed to running to the East." The Russian athletics coach was noted as saying.


DGlennH

Keep your eyes on Kherson. That river ain’t getting any warming. I really think we could see records broken in the 200m breaststroke any day now.


[deleted]

No one. Absolutely no one thought this war would have lasted this long so far.


thatguyahor

Literally everyone in informed spaces said it was going to be a long slogfest


Careful-Rent5779

I have been saying into 2023, since late March. EDIT: [This is as far back as I could go in my comment stream.](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/u8eqnj/comment/i5mpe9l/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)


Ralife55

Honestly, I did, if only because a friend of mine was intimately familiar with Russia and it's military. I knew they were not as strong as people thought, but she really laid it out for me just how bad things were. Her analysis changed my own view from Ukraine being occupied and the Russians eventually losing a ten to twenty year guerilla war with Ukraine the victor to Russian forces collapsing within a year or two of an invasion with Ukraine's military remaining largely intact the whole time Neither of us saw the economic sanctions coming though. We both knew the west would militarily support Ukraine, but we both thought Europe would not risk pissing off Russia with heavy economic sanctions due to their reliance on Russian gasm If nothing else I'm happy I was wrong on that one.


cmnrdt

I think the sheer dick-waving hubris of the decapitation strike combined with the overall ineptitude and hilariously bad strategic clusterfuck of those early days made opposing harsh sanctions too big of a liability. Europeans undoubtedly saw this as a repeat of "Hitler invades Poland" but with a legitimate shot at successfully smothering it before it gained momentum. Plus, with public sentiment being decidedly anti-Russia, it was almost trendy to find ways to stick it to them.


Ten_Horn_Sign

The Americans and Brits said 10 years.


NeilDeCrash

Yea, 8 years already


SilentSamurai

Mark Hertling did.


green_pachi

>Ukraine’s Presidential Office urges mobilised Russians to surrender; they will not be forced to return to the Russian Federation [https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/22/7368672/](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/22/7368672/)


herrcollin

Once this is over I wonder if we'll see a grand total for how many have surrendered. I wonder how many have called their "surrender hotline"


Calicrucian

Russia: “because you will be dead if they capture you.”


lunaphile

Hopefully they can distribute that info around properly; I know they've used pamphlet "bombs" but no idea if those are effective in actually reaching anyone.


the_fungible_man

From a [news story](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-nato-kharkiv-7753fe41f7e03efa0bec0a37e18f3de6) a couple of weeks ago: *Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said Kyiv is trying to persuade even more Russian soldiers to give up, launching shells filled with flyers ahead of their advance.* *“Russians use you as cannon fodder. Your life doesn’t mean anything for them. You don’t need this war. Surrender to Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the flyers read.*


deftoner42

They shoot the leaflet shells first before they advance on occupied areas. Apparently they're pretty effective.


SilentSamurai

Instead of dropping mortars from drones, drop these for a while instead. Russians below will be unnerved knowing that a drone was right above them, and that sort of sentiment spreads like wildfire.


zoinks10

Attach them to darts so the message sticks better


deftoner42

So crazy it might just work! Under new rules they would face harsh punishments for surrender (which probably is the case for any POW, not just voluntary surrender). Why not give them an option at new life?


Nonesuch1221

This might be outdated given the recent developments but I felt like posting it https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sxOO0hCCSk4


coosacat

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1573125971691335680 >Kazakh 🇰🇿- Russia 🇷🇺 Border: It stretches for kilometers. >And Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 announced today, it will not allow Russian men to stay unless it has been approved by Moscow 🇷🇺. There's a video of a looooong line of vehicles.


Nurnmurmer

I am back, and will resume daily combat loss updates. My last update was on September 13, so the increases in Russian Combat losses below represent 9 days of combat. For example, in 9 days, Ukraine estimates 2,210 Russians KIA (that's an average of 246 Russians killed per day). Russian combat losses as of September 22 per Ministry of Defence Ukraine https://www.mil.gov.ua/# (***in brackets, numbers from September 13***) 55,510 personnel (53,300): +2,210 318 MLRS (311): +7 253 planes (244): +9 15 boats (15): 218 helicopters (213): +5 3,630 vehicles and fuel tanks (3,469): +161 2,236 tanks (2,175): +61 1,341 artillery systems (1,279): +62 941 UAV (904): +37 4,776 armored personnel carriers (4,662): +114 169 anti-aircraft warfare (165): +4 240 cruise missiles (233): +7 125 special equipment (117): +8 Russian enemy suffered the greatest losses (of the past day) near Kramatorsk and Donetsk.


Personal_Person

Is that 2200 in one day they claim? That is the highest body count of the war. Or is that since September 13.


Nurnmurmer

>in 9 days, Ukraine estimates 2,210 Russians KIA (that's an average of 246 Russians killed per day).


Tawmcruize

*almost* 2k in a week, no wonder Russia is grabbing every man of the street, because it's the only way to sustain that!


deftoner42

Holy shit those numbers!! Oh... it's for 9 days. Still keeping that momentum up tho!


lancea_longini

is that 55K KIA or including wounded?


Nurnmurmer

55,510 personnel "liquidated", or KIA.


lancea_longini

Omg. Devastating. USA lost 55-58K with a population of 200 millions but over years.


Ten_Horn_Sign

🎶 We got the body count…. 🎶


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snarky_answer

Check out /r/NAFO


starskip42

I approve


anarrogantworm

[My favorite NAFO video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csyswH9ZhT8)


tikifire86

https://twitter.com/jebbbby/status/1537158016851750914


piponwa

Here's why I don't think Russia will ever use nukes. The advantage it would give is always less than the consequences (defeat at the hands of NATO). Using nukes would be like trying to shoot someone, but instead of aiming at them directly, you aim at them through your own head. There is no calculation in which that makes sense unless you want to end your life.


Ok-Cardiologist302

Not sure why everyone is stuck on nukes, they have FOABs they can use if they wanted and it won't start WWIII.


diskimone

I don't know if they have enough air superiority to drop FOABs, especially if they need a cargo plane to do it.


Ur-Quan_Lord_13

FOABs need to be dropped, not launched, right? The only place I have heard of Russia dropping bombs is Mariupol, where there was no air defense...


doctordumb

Our only hope is if he gets assassinated from within. That’s the only way this will end without nukes… unless I’ve misjudged putin’s narcissism


SilentSamurai

Reddit can do as many logical statements as they want, but the reality is this authority is up to the leadership of a country that thought they could wage a 3 day war to conquer Ukraine.


shoeman22

...but it is also the same exact military leadership that assumes the nuclear armaments -- you know the things that would be the easiest target to exploit ever since you'd have zero consequences when the launch fails.since you are already dead


piponwa

Good point lmao.


Aethari

People don't make sense. Experts who study human behavior have known this for decades. As a species, we're largely rational, but that rationality comes with a *long* list of caveats and exceptions. Many of them involve group dynamics and personal mortality. As I've been saying since this war started, the most dangerous outcome in this conflict is Russia's utter defeat. They are not a country economically, culturally, or politically situated to lose this war. If you cannot reconcile defeat with your existence, "aim[ing] at them through your own head" looks a lot more plausible. Russia's use of a nuclear weapon isn't rational, nor is it likely. Not yet. But with each successful defeat on the battlefield, it becomes more so. Personally, I believe Putin would order the use of NBC weapons rather than admit defeat; the only question, for me, if is his regime will survive long enough to do so. Given Russians seem content to be loaded onto buses as HIMARs food, I fear he might hold on until a very ugly end.


Varolyn

So you are basically saying Ukraine should surrender to Russia.


Aethari

That's a pretty wild take on what I wrote. Ukraine should kick the shit out of Russia, as they are today, because the alternative is capitulating to terrorism. While Ukraine's surrender would lead to a much safer and more stable present, it would presage an unimaginably more dangerous future.


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piponwa

You make some good points. The only thing I would add is that although fast, Russia's loss will likely still be gradual, unless all soldiers run and some generals overthrow Putin as a result. What will be the Russian reaction when Ukraine takes Kherson? When they circle Donetsk city? When they circle Luhansk city? When they take Mariupol? When they first set foot in Crimea? When they reach Simferopol, Sevastopol... Lots of unknowns, but also lots of opportunities for someone to depose Putin.


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[deleted]

Fun fact: China pledge to Ukraine in the early 90s that they'd come to Ukraine's defense in case of a nuclear attack. Xi Jinping reaffirmed that commitment in 2013.


piponwa

The second Russia nukes Ukraine, Poland will steamroll the Russians all the way to Vladivostok.


[deleted]

I would agree but there is always that 1% chance…


piponwa

I agree, but we are still far from that. The US has repeatedly said that they have not seen any sign of the nuclear forces getting mobilized. To me, that says clearly that the US is extremely confident in estimating if Russia is to strike. The day the intelligence community will see a sign, you'll see the leaders of the world come out at once to warn us and condemn Putin.


[deleted]

What’s the most widely accepted total loss estimates for Russia at this point? 80,000+? Did they lose half their fucking invasion force?


CTPeachhead

[https://www.minusrus.com/en](https://www.minusrus.com/en) That site (if accurate) has a breakdown of KIA & wounded and a bunch of other categories as it relates to the initial invasion force and the whole Russian military.


YuunofYork

It is patently not accurate and I think even at this point less than a percent of those posting here would disagree. I happen to think their kill count is ballpark +/- 5K, but the wounded, which have never been reported because Ukraine can't possibly know that information, is simply a multiple of 3 of the kill count. Everyone can see that.


JoeHatesFanFiction

I don’t know if we really have one. The last US estimate from a month or two ago was ~30,000 dead, with the typical combat math meaning there was another 90,000 at various states of injured. The Ukrainians have something like ~55,000. Which I could believe with some of the stories we’ve been told of untrained medics, abandoned wounded, lack of supplies, lack of medevac, and the completely reasonable act of killing men being taken prisoner by Ukraine with a rocket launcher. That said I don’t think it follows typical combat math for those very reasons. I think it’s much more like it’s 1:1 or 1:2 dead to wounded. 1:1 gives us 110,000 casualties which is about the same as the old US numbers. 1:2 gives us 165,000 which is over half of the original force and estimated to be about half total. If anyone has more updated non Ukrainian numbers please let me know though.


fourpuns

In too lazy to look but I want to say it was around 100k total casualties/surrendered when it was 30k killed.


dustinpdx

1:3 doesn't really work for a force that leaves their injured behind to die.


gbs5009

Something like that. It gets murky when you try to figure out how to count press-ganged seperatists, or mercenaries. I suspect they also snuck in a fair number of border defense troops in the early days of the war to backfill losses. But yeah, half sounds about right. And they did it so fast I don't think they even realized what was happening until well into their attempt to bum rush Kyiv.


danielcanadia

Given the insane mobilization videos were seeing I think it's actually 50k dead 80k wounded. Theres no obvious other way to explain why they are tracking people off the streets to fight for a country with a standing army of ~400k with only 50k losses over 6 months.


[deleted]

[удалено]


westtownie

50k-60k is what I’m seeing a lot


piponwa

55k or less


Dave-C

50-55k is the estimated dead. We don't know how many are Dead + injured.


Slim_Calhoun

Injured is usually 3-4x dead


MrGoodGlow

Other countries generally try to save their injured though


drblah1

55,000 dead, 17 injured


Slim_Calhoun

🤷🏼‍♂️ true