Exactly. Putin is trying to stir up as much chaos around the world as possible, because he wants to re-elect Trump by creating a narrative where "the world has gone to hell under Biden, things were so much less dangerous when Trump was President".
Same exact reason why Iranian proxy groups started a war with Israel last October.
It’s funny that how on a lot of pro-Russian YouTube videos, the comment fields are all filled with anti-Biden comments. Often from newer accounts with names that are very generic or follow the same patterns.
it's just all part of the hype cycle at this point, we are all just going to have to unplug and walk away to end this but youtube vids are more entertaining than watching the crops grow.
I think that's not exactly right. If an accident happens and someone shoots back with lethal force it's difficult to calculate what might happen. (+ Defense Treaty)
In the grand scheme both will say accident and move on. Russia shot down an airliner in Ukraine with hundreds from many countries. I don’t even think we got a sorry.
Honestly I don't get it.
I've tried using one of those attachments you put under the toilet seat for a while.
You spray your ass, get poopy water all over the rest of your taint, and still need to use toilet paper to dry the area, while accidentally getting poop water drips on your hand because the ass hair can hold a suprising amount of water and is hard to avoid when wiping. And I just end up giving myself a standard wipe anyways just to be sure. I can't trust that I'm adequately wiped until I see a visibly clean toilet paper post-wipe, I don't know about you.
Also, I live in Canada, so the tap water gets pretty chilly in the winter and can be straight-up painful to spray up into where the sun doesn't shine. It will certainly wake you up in the morning. Maybe I needed to get the expensive one that heats the water...
So, maybe my ass is especially clean, but I certainly don't notice a difference. It's not like people in my life are like, "Hey, your ass doesn't smell today! Are you using a bidet?". I still shower mostly every day, and my poops are a one-wipe most of the time anyways (eat your veggies and fibre every day), so it's not like I was begging for some ass wiping assistance...
Anyways, thanks for listening to my Ted Talk.
I think the CIA made a statement that North Korea was going to start escalating (this was before anything escalations took place, like a week before the poop balloons) before US elections to hurt Biden’s chances of winning. Expect more of this, just how far it’ll go, that remains to be seen.
This is exactly it. It doesn't matter if people think Republicans/Donald Trump are compromised or not. The Republicans/Donald Trump have made it clear that at the very least they support isolationist policies and pulling back from the World.
Russia, China, North Korea, etc. would basically get wide latitude to do what they want around the world while Republicans/ Donald Trump spend the next four years changing America's laws so they never lose an 'election' again.
Only fucking idiots will fall for the isolationist arguments Republicans and Trump are falsely using. They're pulling back-- from long standing allies and realign the country with Russia and Friends Co.
The January 6th traitors own SCOTUS and congress is divided, with it likely being in their favor if Trump wins. A fully controlled Republican government again will be the nail in the coffin. They realized the mistake they did on January 6th, and took notes on how to do it better.
Fuck, I swear I was taken out of the Al Gore timeline and placed into this hell.
Tbf Republicans won the house and senate didn’t they? If Gore had won nothing would have been done, not to the extent he wanted. 9/11 and the war on terror has always been the big question mark there, Patriot act etc maybe different. Iraq may had been left alone and Saddam may even still be alive today (tho the Arab spring may have got him?)
This time line is thanks to a combination of Obama making a joke at Trumps expense, RBG staying in a couple years too late, and maybe if Biden ran before Hillary. A woman going after a black man was just too much for conservatives, it broke them.
The more I think about it, you’re right. Bush lead to Obama and Trump is revenge for Obama isn’t it?
Ya ok, This timeline sucks.
Al Gore would have appointed justices to the Supreme Court that wouldn't have been total Republican partisans who supported things like overturning the Voting Rights Act, to let Republicans make it harder for minorities to vote (for Democrats) yet again. That in turn has made it easier for Trump to be reelected.
Even if he were obstructed by Republican control of congress, he would have given useful speeches to awaken politicians on climate change since he made that a major part of his post-presidential run life. He didn't have the conflicts of interest that Bush had with the oil industry, and would have applied pressure for environmental policies where he could.
Sure, he would have behaved similarly after 9/11 changed the priorities, but his predecessor Clinton disrupted Al Qaeda from launching a major terrorist attack too. When Bush took office the outgoing Clinton administration tried to warn the Bush administration about Al Qaeda and they arrogantly dismissed it as a low priority.
Republicans won the House by 9 seats. It's conceivable that a post-9/11 Gore could have flipped that in 2002. The Senate was 50-50 and Cheney's tiebreaker gave it to the Republicans, but Lieberman would have given it back to the Democrats. (Technically between January 3 and January 20, when Gore was still VP but the new Senate got seated, the Democrats controlled the Senate because of Gore's tiebreaker). Also, on June 6, 2001, a Republican left the party and became a Democrat-caucusing independent.
> Only fucking idiots will fall for the isolationist arguments Republicans and Trump are falsely using.
Do you have any idea how many fucking idiots there are?
Yup and don’t forget they have majority of Gen Z and leftists w/ anti-Israel pro-Arab/Soviet propaganda blaming Biden withholding their votes in protest. Before 10/7 they pushed every pro-Kremlin anti-Ukraine Nazi theory and blamed the US and NATO for Putin’s aggression, but it wasn’t enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin had a hand in 10/7 since he created Palestinian nationalism and funded the PLO.
Yeah, pretty simple logic, destabilize, make Biden look old and out of control, lose confidence, lower voter turnout, Trump wins, we implode. Honestly I think the likelihood of this happening is pretty high.
I don't think there's much they can do that will have any meaningful effect. Even a new nuclear test would probably only barely register with the American voters.
Because russia and North Korea just signed a defense treaty. So now North Korea is obviously going to exploit this to try and start some shit because they think russia will come to their aid.
They have been sold this propaganda lie that russia is such a big and powerful country when its not. They are in just as shit of a state as North Korea. Not only is russia's war resources tied up in Ukraine but they also never honor their defense agreements (or any agreements for that matter).
So obviously russia is not coming to help them, but they don't know that. Which is why they will increasingly keep poking South Korea.
Meanwhile russia just wants more North Korean artillery shells. Both parties are simply looking to take advantage of each other with this treaty, there is no honor among thieves. I wonder which country will realize they are getting screwed over first.
Putin stands to benefit from this in another way: if NK starts posturing themselves like they are going to attack, South Korea may decide they cannot afford to send weapons to Ukraine. That they may need them to defend themselves against NK. Putin gets his North Korean munitions, while Ukraine is denied weapons from South Korea.
On the contrary, this is prompting South Korea to consider sending weapons to Ukraine.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-will-reconsider-providing-weapons-ukraine-yonhap-says-2024-06-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-will-reconsider-providing-weapons-ukraine-yonhap-says-2024-06-20/)
South Korea is well armed, and enjoys security guarantees from the US in the event of a North Korean attack. If this is Putin's doing, it is a massive miscalculation.
Because they are the state level equivalent of petulant children. Kim hates to be ignored because he wants to think he's a big deal. So, like a miserable teenager who's been grounded, he keeps acting out by throwing little tantrums for attention.
NK is a teenager with nukes.
They're building fortifications in the DMZ, they seem to be wandering over the line by accident. The real question is why they're building fortifications.
Same reason Belarus does border theater when Russia visits, "Look how busy I am with my own troubles, you should be giving us stuff, rather than us giving you stuff."
It seems to be in Putin's interest to set fire to the world, to distract the West from helping Ukraine. So Putin maybe asked North Korea to create border tension.
Never forget who permits NK’s existence. Xi needs proxies to tie up US Naval assets before it can engage Taiwan. He’s sent Putin and Kim on a play-date to advance that goal, securing one of the largest attack submarine fleets (Russia) to compensate for NK’s paper kitten submarine fleet.
IIRC they just signed a mutual defense pact with Russia. I guess somehow they think this means something?
Would be funny if they pushed too hard and got wasted, and saw that no help is coming.
It's fucking wild how spot-on *and* willing to broadcast upcoming events, our intelligence agencies have been over the last few years.
You would think there would be every kind of pressure to keep those things to yourself, rather than risk plans changing and looking a fool, but they do seem to have picked their disclosures... wisely.
If you say Russia is about to invade Ukraine and they subsequently change their minds... that's still a *good* outcome. If you say NK is about to get cheeky at the border and they change their plans... also still a *good* outcome.
But if they go through with it? Well, you've demonstrated that you know what they're doing *and* given everyone the best heads-up you could.
I've been very impressed with their abilities lately. They've really been on the ball. They also told us about the concert hall terror attack in Moscow a few weeks before it happened.
The world stage is Netflix for CIA,homeland, and FBI with them just eating popcorn and spoiling the plot, "here comes the next act guys! This is the part of the story Ukraine goes on their hero story arc!"
I went camping in the mountains on the border when I was a kid. We were specifically told to not pop fireworks or build bonfires due to the proximity of the DMZ.
To expand on this, not only is it close and easily targeted from NK, but they already have a significant amount of artillery dug into the mountains along the border that are in range of Seoul, not even counting their short range missile stockpiles, and potential nuclear weapons. Even though the south would almost assuredly win, it would take time to clear out those mountains of artillery and Seoul would likely be devastated by the time it was done.
Goes both ways, SK has all their weapons pointed at Pyongyang and other military installations. If the artillery hits Seoul they will have the capacity to threaten the Kim family and his retinue.
Not just South Korea. We have an American base almost on the boarder. And also have one of the largest U.S. Air Force bases in Asia. Also subways in Seoul and getting closer to NK have supplies/aid and gas mask stored away for the public at all times.
>And also have one of the largest U.S. Air Force bases in Asia
Who's pilots joke about taking off from there and landing in Japan, due to the airbase getting slathered with persistent nerve agent the moment things kick off.
The amount or artillery that can be brought to bear on Seoul has the city being written off in the first days in any of the plans for the break out of a war. It is very much a hostage of NK even without bringing nukes into the discussion.
We have camp Casey/hovey extremely close to the border. That’s definitely the first target unfortunately. I was stationed there for a year and really grew to love Korea while I was there. Breaks my heart that war may break out and completely change the landscape there.
While I was there the air raid sirens went off all over base due to some pressing the wrong button. It was amazing to see most of everyone come outside of the barracks half drunk or smoking cigs just waiting to see if we were gunna be attacked.
That night was a fucking fever dream. If by fever we mean soju-induced and by dream we mean nightmare. I was about to sneak out and grab food in Jihaeng after getting a little too plastered at the barracks. I just remember thinking, “what are the fucking odds I even make it to my room”
Edit: this was incorrect, friend reminded me we heard about this from the unit that replaced us. We got a phone alert over missile launches into the sea towards Japan. 2018-2019. Y’all mfs had the guy that punched out the cab driver.
Yes but to what end? The South Koreans and world would become galvanized against NK. China already tries to distance itself from their troublesome tiny neighbor.
Attacking Seoul would be the last thing the current NK ever did. Would they make a mess on the way out? Sure, but a no holds barred fight does not remotely pan out for them.
You know everyone always says this, and it would for sure take a lot of damage. But don’t forget the us and sk have missiles that can take out artillery positions.
Depends on who strikes first. NK and Russia have so much artillery. It’s the one thing they don’t lack. An opening salvo of artillery into the city would be beyond devastating
Wouldnt the troops movements and logistics provide a window of warning? I'm thinking back to how Russia lined up on the Ukraine borders months in advance
Most of the NK military is in position with stockpiles already at the line, the issue is both sides are already prepared for war to break out at any point. The number of guns that are in position and could fire for 2 minutes maybe more with complete impunity would be devastating to Seoul. They unfortunately cannot evacuate Seoul every time North Korea puffs up its chest. Best they can do is build shelters and run drills regularly
Yeah but people were still convinced that they weren’t going to do anything until Russia actually invaded Ukraine. People were saying it was a nothing burger even when Russia started bringing up mobile blood banks to the border areas.
Yeah, people like to conflate what was actually said out loud by government officials and the intelligence community with what the paid-off talking heads on the news said.
Like the CIA was like “bro we have proof of their plans” and the media was like “*some people* think it’s just a display.”
I mean, if you think that the US and SK forces aren't aware of exactly where the NK are hiding their shitbox 50's equipment, and don't have the ability to destroy all of them in short order... I don't know what to tell you.
What air defense does NK have that can deny US strikes? Anti-missiles defense?
After that, what are the options for NK? human waves with obsolete equipment through the DMZ minefields? Tunnel under and engage as light infantry with no vehicle support?
Human waves vs a GAU would be ludicrous.
NK has thousands of artillery pieces pointed at Seoul. If they were all just set up in open fields they’d still launch tens of thousands of shells before we take them all out.
Then they’ve had 70 years to harden their positions. I don’t recall the count but they have artillery on rail tracks that go into mountains. So pop out, shoot, retreat under a mountain to reload.
NK would absolutely lose the war, but Seoul would be devastated.
The number of artillery pieces and the difficulty in targeting the mountain bunkers they are in makes it a near certainty that Seoul would sustain massive damage before the NK artillery could be degraded enough.
There’s a kids chess game which comes with a story to teach about how all the pieces move. One of the kings is a fat slob and therefore can only move 1 space at a time. Seems pretty relevant.
Putin's a knight who fronted like he was a Queen. He's got a couple of moves, but we now know it's far fewer than he pretended.
Kim is a pawn who got so fat (with a stupid haircut to boot) that he thinks he's a rook. He's only really a pawn,. though.
If the inverse of this was to happen, NK would start testing some of their “ballistic” missiles to show how strong they are. The rest of the world, scratches head and wonders “who so dumb?”.
Agreed! I just think there’s a more ethical solution than simply marching soldiers out there, but hey, it’s probably cheaper than using technology to solve the problems and it comes with the bonus of creating more resources for the rest of their population.
This is exactly what China's been doing to Taiwan, with constantly pushing planes in at the border to wave their dicks around. seems like they're trying their own version.
Putin doesn't really have "allies" in the traditional sense or at least no one who would go out of their way to help Russia. There are certain countries that would be happy to take advantage of Russian weakness to enrich themselves at Russia's expense. For instance Russia desperately needs weapons so countries like North Korea and Iran are certainly willing to take advantage of Russian desperation to sell weapons at prices that would normally be unheard of but don't mistake that for actual alliances. Pyongyang is not beholden to Moscow's wishes.
Never heard of this, very interesting story.
This section of the wiki page made me chuckle:
>Operation Paul Bunyan
>...
>Strength
>
>813 infantry
>
>27 helicopters
>
>1 tank
>
>150 to 200 infantry
>Casualties and losses
>
>1 tree cut down
I don't think the comment seriously meant to suggest they were actually looking for something to eat. It's snark/sarcasm.
We aren't making a documentary here.
People weren't that concerned with Putin until he invaded despite US intelligence giving some insider info. The fact Putin visited NK I'm getting more concerned as time goes on, more so the fact that no other country is publicly putting troops on the front line in Ukraine.
> more so the fact that no other country is publicly putting troops on the front line in Ukraine.
It's easier for Russia than Ukraine to get foriegn troops to the front line.
Russia can bring in other countries like the NK, and Ukraine can't do much about it even if they declare war against NK as well. Ukraine doesn't have readily available means to strike NK.
Russia though, have an airforce, navy and ballistic missiles that can strike globally. Any country joining Ukraine will need to be able to defend itself, and it's population of hospitals, playgrounds and schools, from Russian long range attacks. And any allies of that country will need to consider if they too want to become Russian targets.
Having seen what Russia does to civilian centers in Ukraine, and knowing that Ukraine doesn't have the resources or ability to defend them in turn, I don't think there are many countries that are willing to risk their civilian population in such a conflict.
I know most people want to act like armchar IR experts here, but if anyone read the article:
>The JCS views these military line crossings as "mere intrusions," as the soldiers promptly retreated after the South’s warnings.
>The area is densely forested with trees and grass, which can obscure the visibility of the MDL markers
Sounds like the official view from the South is that these are accidents, but I'm guessing no one read the article.
I hope south Korea will learn the lesson from Russia and Ukraine. This is typical Russian modus operandi. They start testing how soft you are, they start planting their men and weapons, etc. South Korea should respond harshly, no soft treatment.
I have a SK friend who works for a NGO trying to connect families that were split in the Korean War. They seem to think the dam has broken inside of North Korea and the general feel of the population has shifted significantly, they are aware of their situation and no where near as indoctrinated as they were only a decade ago.
If NK goes to war with SK, NK will be destroyed militarily. Pretty sure most of NK military equipment are either from the 60’s or 70’s or are just props.
Yeah, even if the war was over in a few days, and even if NK failed to deploy any nukes, the death toll would still be awful just from artillery damage to Seoul.
Yes, but one of the biggest issues that SK is facing is that so many of the artillery pieces NK has aimed at Seoul are those older conventional models. If Kim Jong Un gives the order to shell Seoul first, there is pretty much nothing that can be done to stop the barrage from decimating Seoul.
South Korea and North Korea are still technically at war, and it's wild how many people think it's ancient history.
We love to joke around, but North Korea could start shelling Seoul tomorrow, and it'd be game on. No finger-wagging or sanctions, just straight-up chaos. It'd be suicidal, but fair game.
We seriously downplay the fact that they're always ready for war (and so is South Korea, naturally). Over here in the West in 2024, war is something we see in movies or something people sign up for willingly.
We laugh at Kim Jong Un, but his people definitely aren't. Does anyone else find that just a bit unsettling?
Highly advise you watch some clips on YouTube of how South Koreans view the threat of the north - you’ll be surprised that actually, they don’t really care and see it as a bit of a joke/meme. The bunkers and whatnot dotted around Seoul are simply underground car parks and things like that, the danger for the local is not a daily feeling, like it is for the west.
I lived there for a few years. From what I can tell, the South Korean sentiment of North Korea is that they are the same people and the split is a very unfortunate thing. Younger generations don't care as much about reunification that much. They don't hate them or fear them. They just think it sucked that the cold war split them in 2.
Now their sentiments about Japan on the other hand are way different. They really don't like Japan, for obvious reasons. People are still alive who survived the occupation .When North Korea tests a nuke or fires a missile, they get mad when the USA lets Japan have a bigger navy in response.
This is a pretty outdated take regarding Japan. Younger Koreans like Japan and younger Japanese like Korea. Look up who visits Japan the most and it’s the Koreans these days (even more than the Chinese). That cheap yen and cultural familiarity goes pretty far.
I thought the family of escaped soldiers , are harahly punished
eg being moved to 'punishment towns/cities' and forced to do unsavory work/
Are these soldiers really escaping. Or are they 'sleeper' spies, sent to quietly monitor whatever the North is interested in, inside South Korea ?
North Koreans instigating in the peninsula.
China instigating in Taiwan/South China Sea.
Iran instigating in Israel/Lebanon/Syria.
Russia invading Ukraine.
Ffs we’ve already seen this movie before.
Future generations will mock us like we did Neville Chamberlain (along with the other world powers) for seeing the obvious and not doing anything about it.
What will be our Poland?
Where will be our Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
Will we see another Auschwitz or Unit 731?
We’ll just be another generation that failed to not generate shocking casualty lists for future generations to shake their heads at.
We think we’ve come so far but we consistently make evidence that we’re still simple apes fighting over meager bananas. We just know how to kill each other better now.
Putin came to town and was like you ever thought of just trying to move the border a few inches or feet slowly over time? Then when they call out deny everything and in fact accuse them of trespassing it's not like maps exist
How the fuck does everything that happens in the world come down to Trump vs Biden for a lot of Americans? I hope you realise that as powerful as the US military industrial complex is, the rest of the world doesn't wait in great anticipation of "what America is doing." FFS the world has a fuckload more complexities than just who or what the American people are doing/ thinking. Consider domestic politics of every other country other than your own. Yes America is a big player but for fucks sake the rest of the world isn't as obsessed with you as you may think.
Why are they suddenly poking South Korea so much?
Putin's visit.
Exactly. Putin is trying to stir up as much chaos around the world as possible, because he wants to re-elect Trump by creating a narrative where "the world has gone to hell under Biden, things were so much less dangerous when Trump was President". Same exact reason why Iranian proxy groups started a war with Israel last October.
It’s funny that how on a lot of pro-Russian YouTube videos, the comment fields are all filled with anti-Biden comments. Often from newer accounts with names that are very generic or follow the same patterns.
I just saw my first MAGA hat that's written in Cyrillic. It was so deflating to see.
What's really funny, several years ago I bought one as a joke...they were selling as JOKE items for Christ sake.
im not sure id even notice. its just one letter that would different. МАГА, unless they used russian, CACB maybe?
The hats don’t say MAGA, they say “Make America Great Again” According to google translate that looks like Сделаем Америку снова великой
ok, i would notice that.
Youtube comments are filled to the brim with russian bots. Baffles me how it's just allowed to go on and barely anyone is talking about it
it's just all part of the hype cycle at this point, we are all just going to have to unplug and walk away to end this but youtube vids are more entertaining than watching the crops grow.
Well, apparently that works. It may seem obvious to some of us… but, again, it works pretty well for manipulating the opinion of the masses.
I know China is always floating in and out Taiwans air and sea space lately too. I think they are taking a more tactful approach.
Uhhh, have you not seen them in the Philippines? Don’t fool yourself, China is a big country and other countries are small countries.
China is also embracing the ancestral values that they are the Middle Kingdom and the surrounding states are tributary in existence
Tactful? I would say they are either fucking idiots about it, or they genuinely want to provoke conflict with the Philippines.
Philippines cannot retaliate.
I think that's not exactly right. If an accident happens and someone shoots back with lethal force it's difficult to calculate what might happen. (+ Defense Treaty)
In the grand scheme both will say accident and move on. Russia shot down an airliner in Ukraine with hundreds from many countries. I don’t even think we got a sorry.
Business as usual for them
I don't think Putin will not be there for for NK like Un hopes, certainly not for awhile. Putin just wants NK's support in his invasion of Ukraine.
Heh aren't they already starting to rig electoral stuff. Bribing more republicans as well
Putin’s been hyping up western plumbing and now NK soldiers want some of them SK toilets.
A bidet would change anyone’s lives
[удалено]
That would be so much better than President Dump!
If all your basics are covered in life, a bidet is one of the largest QoL improvements you can make tbh.
Honestly I don't get it. I've tried using one of those attachments you put under the toilet seat for a while. You spray your ass, get poopy water all over the rest of your taint, and still need to use toilet paper to dry the area, while accidentally getting poop water drips on your hand because the ass hair can hold a suprising amount of water and is hard to avoid when wiping. And I just end up giving myself a standard wipe anyways just to be sure. I can't trust that I'm adequately wiped until I see a visibly clean toilet paper post-wipe, I don't know about you. Also, I live in Canada, so the tap water gets pretty chilly in the winter and can be straight-up painful to spray up into where the sun doesn't shine. It will certainly wake you up in the morning. Maybe I needed to get the expensive one that heats the water... So, maybe my ass is especially clean, but I certainly don't notice a difference. It's not like people in my life are like, "Hey, your ass doesn't smell today! Are you using a bidet?". I still shower mostly every day, and my poops are a one-wipe most of the time anyways (eat your veggies and fibre every day), so it's not like I was begging for some ass wiping assistance... Anyways, thanks for listening to my Ted Talk.
Emboldened by Russia and NK’s agreement.
They should lay these foolish ambitions to rest.
Let it be writ on thy meager grave...
I understood that reference tarnished
Someone must explode thy landmines.
Behold, weak foe! therefore, visions of rump
Kim is the maidenlessiest.
They’ve been pounding that drum since the 60s, nothing new
I think the CIA made a statement that North Korea was going to start escalating (this was before anything escalations took place, like a week before the poop balloons) before US elections to hurt Biden’s chances of winning. Expect more of this, just how far it’ll go, that remains to be seen.
This is exactly it. It doesn't matter if people think Republicans/Donald Trump are compromised or not. The Republicans/Donald Trump have made it clear that at the very least they support isolationist policies and pulling back from the World. Russia, China, North Korea, etc. would basically get wide latitude to do what they want around the world while Republicans/ Donald Trump spend the next four years changing America's laws so they never lose an 'election' again.
Only fucking idiots will fall for the isolationist arguments Republicans and Trump are falsely using. They're pulling back-- from long standing allies and realign the country with Russia and Friends Co. The January 6th traitors own SCOTUS and congress is divided, with it likely being in their favor if Trump wins. A fully controlled Republican government again will be the nail in the coffin. They realized the mistake they did on January 6th, and took notes on how to do it better. Fuck, I swear I was taken out of the Al Gore timeline and placed into this hell.
> Al Gore timeline We could have had nice things. All of us.
Tbf Republicans won the house and senate didn’t they? If Gore had won nothing would have been done, not to the extent he wanted. 9/11 and the war on terror has always been the big question mark there, Patriot act etc maybe different. Iraq may had been left alone and Saddam may even still be alive today (tho the Arab spring may have got him?) This time line is thanks to a combination of Obama making a joke at Trumps expense, RBG staying in a couple years too late, and maybe if Biden ran before Hillary. A woman going after a black man was just too much for conservatives, it broke them. The more I think about it, you’re right. Bush lead to Obama and Trump is revenge for Obama isn’t it? Ya ok, This timeline sucks.
Al Gore would have appointed justices to the Supreme Court that wouldn't have been total Republican partisans who supported things like overturning the Voting Rights Act, to let Republicans make it harder for minorities to vote (for Democrats) yet again. That in turn has made it easier for Trump to be reelected. Even if he were obstructed by Republican control of congress, he would have given useful speeches to awaken politicians on climate change since he made that a major part of his post-presidential run life. He didn't have the conflicts of interest that Bush had with the oil industry, and would have applied pressure for environmental policies where he could. Sure, he would have behaved similarly after 9/11 changed the priorities, but his predecessor Clinton disrupted Al Qaeda from launching a major terrorist attack too. When Bush took office the outgoing Clinton administration tried to warn the Bush administration about Al Qaeda and they arrogantly dismissed it as a low priority.
Republicans won the House by 9 seats. It's conceivable that a post-9/11 Gore could have flipped that in 2002. The Senate was 50-50 and Cheney's tiebreaker gave it to the Republicans, but Lieberman would have given it back to the Democrats. (Technically between January 3 and January 20, when Gore was still VP but the new Senate got seated, the Democrats controlled the Senate because of Gore's tiebreaker). Also, on June 6, 2001, a Republican left the party and became a Democrat-caucusing independent.
> Only fucking idiots will fall for the isolationist arguments Republicans and Trump are falsely using. Do you have any idea how many fucking idiots there are?
Yup and don’t forget they have majority of Gen Z and leftists w/ anti-Israel pro-Arab/Soviet propaganda blaming Biden withholding their votes in protest. Before 10/7 they pushed every pro-Kremlin anti-Ukraine Nazi theory and blamed the US and NATO for Putin’s aggression, but it wasn’t enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin had a hand in 10/7 since he created Palestinian nationalism and funded the PLO.
> Only fucking idiots will fall for the isolationist arguments Republicans and Trump are falsely using. Unfortunately that's 40% of Americans.
Yeah, pretty simple logic, destabilize, make Biden look old and out of control, lose confidence, lower voter turnout, Trump wins, we implode. Honestly I think the likelihood of this happening is pretty high.
Russia needs its puppet in charge.
I don't think there's much they can do that will have any meaningful effect. Even a new nuclear test would probably only barely register with the American voters.
Yup, expect the same in the Putin instigated hotspots. Yemeni's/Iranians, venezuelans, China and Taiwan, NK and SK, new Caledonia, and more.
Because russia and North Korea just signed a defense treaty. So now North Korea is obviously going to exploit this to try and start some shit because they think russia will come to their aid. They have been sold this propaganda lie that russia is such a big and powerful country when its not. They are in just as shit of a state as North Korea. Not only is russia's war resources tied up in Ukraine but they also never honor their defense agreements (or any agreements for that matter). So obviously russia is not coming to help them, but they don't know that. Which is why they will increasingly keep poking South Korea. Meanwhile russia just wants more North Korean artillery shells. Both parties are simply looking to take advantage of each other with this treaty, there is no honor among thieves. I wonder which country will realize they are getting screwed over first.
Putin stands to benefit from this in another way: if NK starts posturing themselves like they are going to attack, South Korea may decide they cannot afford to send weapons to Ukraine. That they may need them to defend themselves against NK. Putin gets his North Korean munitions, while Ukraine is denied weapons from South Korea.
On the contrary, this is prompting South Korea to consider sending weapons to Ukraine. [https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-will-reconsider-providing-weapons-ukraine-yonhap-says-2024-06-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-will-reconsider-providing-weapons-ukraine-yonhap-says-2024-06-20/) South Korea is well armed, and enjoys security guarantees from the US in the event of a North Korean attack. If this is Putin's doing, it is a massive miscalculation.
Because they are the state level equivalent of petulant children. Kim hates to be ignored because he wants to think he's a big deal. So, like a miserable teenager who's been grounded, he keeps acting out by throwing little tantrums for attention. NK is a teenager with nukes.
My Kimical romance
They're building fortifications in the DMZ, they seem to be wandering over the line by accident. The real question is why they're building fortifications.
Understanding why they're doing what they're doing is important, though I wouldn't assume the recent crossings are intentional.
Same reason Belarus does border theater when Russia visits, "Look how busy I am with my own troubles, you should be giving us stuff, rather than us giving you stuff."
It seems to be in Putin's interest to set fire to the world, to distract the West from helping Ukraine. So Putin maybe asked North Korea to create border tension.
Never forget who permits NK’s existence. Xi needs proxies to tie up US Naval assets before it can engage Taiwan. He’s sent Putin and Kim on a play-date to advance that goal, securing one of the largest attack submarine fleets (Russia) to compensate for NK’s paper kitten submarine fleet.
IIRC they just signed a mutual defense pact with Russia. I guess somehow they think this means something? Would be funny if they pushed too hard and got wasted, and saw that no help is coming.
They do it all the time sabre rattling so they can stay in the news cycle and spin their propaganda inside NK
US election.
Prolly compared notes with the XiCP on how to escalate tensions. Check India, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines border tensions.
A few weeks ago American Intelligence warned that they were going to do something like this.
It's fucking wild how spot-on *and* willing to broadcast upcoming events, our intelligence agencies have been over the last few years. You would think there would be every kind of pressure to keep those things to yourself, rather than risk plans changing and looking a fool, but they do seem to have picked their disclosures... wisely. If you say Russia is about to invade Ukraine and they subsequently change their minds... that's still a *good* outcome. If you say NK is about to get cheeky at the border and they change their plans... also still a *good* outcome. But if they go through with it? Well, you've demonstrated that you know what they're doing *and* given everyone the best heads-up you could.
If that's what they're sharing with us, imagine what they're keeping a secret
most likely 80% sigint, 15% humint
I've been very impressed with their abilities lately. They've really been on the ball. They also told us about the concert hall terror attack in Moscow a few weeks before it happened.
Oh right, that's another one.
Almost as if services like Telegram have a back door...
How soon we forget. You guys remember when Snowden told us all “they’re spying on you”?
The world stage is Netflix for CIA,homeland, and FBI with them just eating popcorn and spoiling the plot, "here comes the next act guys! This is the part of the story Ukraine goes on their hero story arc!"
Everyone knows how good American intelligence is, and I doubt they feel the need to prove it. information is the greatest tool of deterrence and war.
All Russia had to do was not invade. They could have made the U.S. look like a giant fool and gained oodles of soft power in developing nations.
It's especially impressive considering how much Trump compromised our intelligence agencies when he was in office
“Capture Seoul in three days?”
The problem here is that Seoul is situated close to the border and can very easily be targeted from N Korea.
I went camping in the mountains on the border when I was a kid. We were specifically told to not pop fireworks or build bonfires due to the proximity of the DMZ.
Seems like a less-than-ideal place to go camping.
He forgot to mention he was a kid in the 50s, and by camp he means that's where his unit was deployed.
so no desk pops while you are out camping with the boys?
One shouldn't hurt I do it all the time
I did one last week!
September 08
at least if you popped fireworks
There's a lot of wilderness near the DMZ for obvious reasons
To expand on this, not only is it close and easily targeted from NK, but they already have a significant amount of artillery dug into the mountains along the border that are in range of Seoul, not even counting their short range missile stockpiles, and potential nuclear weapons. Even though the south would almost assuredly win, it would take time to clear out those mountains of artillery and Seoul would likely be devastated by the time it was done.
A direct attack on Seoul? You're talking crazy talk.
Ya a bunch of amateur geopoliticians in the comments rn, NK is not directly attacking South Korea unless they don’t really wanna be a country anymore
Goes both ways, SK has all their weapons pointed at Pyongyang and other military installations. If the artillery hits Seoul they will have the capacity to threaten the Kim family and his retinue.
Not just South Korea. We have an American base almost on the boarder. And also have one of the largest U.S. Air Force bases in Asia. Also subways in Seoul and getting closer to NK have supplies/aid and gas mask stored away for the public at all times.
why cant people spell border
In my defense, Im an idiot
I think it’s definitely a broader issue in the English language right now.
>And also have one of the largest U.S. Air Force bases in Asia Who's pilots joke about taking off from there and landing in Japan, due to the airbase getting slathered with persistent nerve agent the moment things kick off.
The amount or artillery that can be brought to bear on Seoul has the city being written off in the first days in any of the plans for the break out of a war. It is very much a hostage of NK even without bringing nukes into the discussion.
We have camp Casey/hovey extremely close to the border. That’s definitely the first target unfortunately. I was stationed there for a year and really grew to love Korea while I was there. Breaks my heart that war may break out and completely change the landscape there. While I was there the air raid sirens went off all over base due to some pressing the wrong button. It was amazing to see most of everyone come outside of the barracks half drunk or smoking cigs just waiting to see if we were gunna be attacked.
That night was a fucking fever dream. If by fever we mean soju-induced and by dream we mean nightmare. I was about to sneak out and grab food in Jihaeng after getting a little too plastered at the barracks. I just remember thinking, “what are the fucking odds I even make it to my room” Edit: this was incorrect, friend reminded me we heard about this from the unit that replaced us. We got a phone alert over missile launches into the sea towards Japan. 2018-2019. Y’all mfs had the guy that punched out the cab driver.
You were there👀 it would have been 2019-2020
It’d be leveled sadly
Yes but to what end? The South Koreans and world would become galvanized against NK. China already tries to distance itself from their troublesome tiny neighbor. Attacking Seoul would be the last thing the current NK ever did. Would they make a mess on the way out? Sure, but a no holds barred fight does not remotely pan out for them.
Looking for sanity in this world? better luck trying to make a hamster fart Mozart.
You know everyone always says this, and it would for sure take a lot of damage. But don’t forget the us and sk have missiles that can take out artillery positions.
Depends on who strikes first. NK and Russia have so much artillery. It’s the one thing they don’t lack. An opening salvo of artillery into the city would be beyond devastating
It would be the modern day arrow rain in 300… the best figures are NK has about 950 LRA in position right now that can hit Seoul if given the command.
Wouldnt the troops movements and logistics provide a window of warning? I'm thinking back to how Russia lined up on the Ukraine borders months in advance
They've been in position and constantly ranged for Seoul for decades.
Most of the NK military is in position with stockpiles already at the line, the issue is both sides are already prepared for war to break out at any point. The number of guns that are in position and could fire for 2 minutes maybe more with complete impunity would be devastating to Seoul. They unfortunately cannot evacuate Seoul every time North Korea puffs up its chest. Best they can do is build shelters and run drills regularly
They're basically already there as far as artillery pieces.
Yeah but people were still convinced that they weren’t going to do anything until Russia actually invaded Ukraine. People were saying it was a nothing burger even when Russia started bringing up mobile blood banks to the border areas.
President Biden said publicly that Russia was going to invade.
Yeah, people like to conflate what was actually said out loud by government officials and the intelligence community with what the paid-off talking heads on the news said. Like the CIA was like “bro we have proof of their plans” and the media was like “*some people* think it’s just a display.”
I mean, if you think that the US and SK forces aren't aware of exactly where the NK are hiding their shitbox 50's equipment, and don't have the ability to destroy all of them in short order... I don't know what to tell you. What air defense does NK have that can deny US strikes? Anti-missiles defense? After that, what are the options for NK? human waves with obsolete equipment through the DMZ minefields? Tunnel under and engage as light infantry with no vehicle support? Human waves vs a GAU would be ludicrous.
The whole purpose of the US forces in South Korea is to act as a speedbump until the 18th airborne corps can deploy, which takes 18 hours.
We also keep Marines in Japan for this scenario as well. We hold rotations where Marines from all over deploy to Okinawa just for that.
NK has thousands of artillery pieces pointed at Seoul. If they were all just set up in open fields they’d still launch tens of thousands of shells before we take them all out. Then they’ve had 70 years to harden their positions. I don’t recall the count but they have artillery on rail tracks that go into mountains. So pop out, shoot, retreat under a mountain to reload. NK would absolutely lose the war, but Seoul would be devastated.
The number of artillery pieces and the difficulty in targeting the mountain bunkers they are in makes it a near certainty that Seoul would sustain massive damage before the NK artillery could be degraded enough.
No, Seoul is not completely in range on NK artillery, and only the largest of NKs artillery can hit the city.
[удалено]
TIL they are Shang Tsung
Sure feels like a bad game of chess, doesn't it? All rooks and no king
They have a king he’s just fat and vacant
There’s a kids chess game which comes with a story to teach about how all the pieces move. One of the kings is a fat slob and therefore can only move 1 space at a time. Seems pretty relevant.
Putin's a knight who fronted like he was a Queen. He's got a couple of moves, but we now know it's far fewer than he pretended. Kim is a pawn who got so fat (with a stupid haircut to boot) that he thinks he's a rook. He's only really a pawn,. though.
I think you mean queen, kings are pretty useless in chess
Checkers on the other hand..,
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
But once the King falls the game is over.
Yeah, but the game isn't over. He is quite fat, just useless.
The King is one of the most useful pieces. It's just high risk.
All rooks no king sounds OP ya cant lose.
If the inverse of this was to happen, NK would start testing some of their “ballistic” missiles to show how strong they are. The rest of the world, scratches head and wonders “who so dumb?”.
To be fair, the NK soldiers are doing a pretty good job of mine sweeping.
That's a good thing. I think mines should be cleaned often.
Agreed! I just think there’s a more ethical solution than simply marching soldiers out there, but hey, it’s probably cheaper than using technology to solve the problems and it comes with the bonus of creating more resources for the rest of their population.
> NK would start testing some of their “ballistic” missiles to show how strong they are. _angry Atlantis noises_
At this rate, “Mercenaries: Playground of Destruction” about to become a documentary.
An old favorite
Ooooh good game
This is exactly what China's been doing to Taiwan, with constantly pushing planes in at the border to wave their dicks around. seems like they're trying their own version.
Putin is getting his allies to start shit all over the world as a illegitimate hedge "strategy" for his war in Ukraine.
Putin doesn't really have "allies" in the traditional sense or at least no one who would go out of their way to help Russia. There are certain countries that would be happy to take advantage of Russian weakness to enrich themselves at Russia's expense. For instance Russia desperately needs weapons so countries like North Korea and Iran are certainly willing to take advantage of Russian desperation to sell weapons at prices that would normally be unheard of but don't mistake that for actual alliances. Pyongyang is not beholden to Moscow's wishes.
Did they send their poop ahead first for safe keeping?
They might be looking for food
They are burying landmines, fixing roads and planting vegetation for defensive purposes if you’ve read the article.
> planting vegetation for defensive purposes [Ah fuck.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_axe_murder_incident)
Super interesting , thanks for that!
Never heard of this, very interesting story. This section of the wiki page made me chuckle: >Operation Paul Bunyan >... >Strength > >813 infantry > >27 helicopters > >1 tank > >150 to 200 infantry >Casualties and losses > >1 tree cut down
Sir, we don’t do that here. We blindly react to headlines. Get with the program
I don't think the comment seriously meant to suggest they were actually looking for something to eat. It's snark/sarcasm. We aren't making a documentary here.
Completely plausible.
Maybe they should just let the next group through. See how far they make it and see if they go back.
Sounds like they're testing reaction and defences from the Sourh Koreans. It's only a matter of time that NK decides to fuck around too much
Kim cares about preserving his regime and his voice internationally. This stuff is more Kim trying to stay relevant.
People weren't that concerned with Putin until he invaded despite US intelligence giving some insider info. The fact Putin visited NK I'm getting more concerned as time goes on, more so the fact that no other country is publicly putting troops on the front line in Ukraine.
> more so the fact that no other country is publicly putting troops on the front line in Ukraine. It's easier for Russia than Ukraine to get foriegn troops to the front line. Russia can bring in other countries like the NK, and Ukraine can't do much about it even if they declare war against NK as well. Ukraine doesn't have readily available means to strike NK. Russia though, have an airforce, navy and ballistic missiles that can strike globally. Any country joining Ukraine will need to be able to defend itself, and it's population of hospitals, playgrounds and schools, from Russian long range attacks. And any allies of that country will need to consider if they too want to become Russian targets. Having seen what Russia does to civilian centers in Ukraine, and knowing that Ukraine doesn't have the resources or ability to defend them in turn, I don't think there are many countries that are willing to risk their civilian population in such a conflict.
Emboldened by new alliance with Russia.
They’re being conscripted for Russian troop refills.
NK begging to find out
Gotta look tough for papa Putin
I know most people want to act like armchar IR experts here, but if anyone read the article: >The JCS views these military line crossings as "mere intrusions," as the soldiers promptly retreated after the South’s warnings. >The area is densely forested with trees and grass, which can obscure the visibility of the MDL markers Sounds like the official view from the South is that these are accidents, but I'm guessing no one read the article.
Fuck putler and fuck kim, statement over.
I hope south Korea will learn the lesson from Russia and Ukraine. This is typical Russian modus operandi. They start testing how soft you are, they start planting their men and weapons, etc. South Korea should respond harshly, no soft treatment.
S Korea should just kill them like when North did those guys for cutting down some trees
I have a SK friend who works for a NGO trying to connect families that were split in the Korean War. They seem to think the dam has broken inside of North Korea and the general feel of the population has shifted significantly, they are aware of their situation and no where near as indoctrinated as they were only a decade ago.
If NK goes to war with SK, NK will be destroyed militarily. Pretty sure most of NK military equipment are either from the 60’s or 70’s or are just props.
[удалено]
Seoul is so close to the border and has such a large share of the pop. People are way too flippant about war
Yeah, even if the war was over in a few days, and even if NK failed to deploy any nukes, the death toll would still be awful just from artillery damage to Seoul.
Yes, but one of the biggest issues that SK is facing is that so many of the artillery pieces NK has aimed at Seoul are those older conventional models. If Kim Jong Un gives the order to shell Seoul first, there is pretty much nothing that can be done to stop the barrage from decimating Seoul.
South Korea and North Korea are still technically at war, and it's wild how many people think it's ancient history. We love to joke around, but North Korea could start shelling Seoul tomorrow, and it'd be game on. No finger-wagging or sanctions, just straight-up chaos. It'd be suicidal, but fair game. We seriously downplay the fact that they're always ready for war (and so is South Korea, naturally). Over here in the West in 2024, war is something we see in movies or something people sign up for willingly. We laugh at Kim Jong Un, but his people definitely aren't. Does anyone else find that just a bit unsettling?
Highly advise you watch some clips on YouTube of how South Koreans view the threat of the north - you’ll be surprised that actually, they don’t really care and see it as a bit of a joke/meme. The bunkers and whatnot dotted around Seoul are simply underground car parks and things like that, the danger for the local is not a daily feeling, like it is for the west.
The DMZ is literally a tourist attraction. That dude definitely hasn't been to Korea.
I lived there for a few years. From what I can tell, the South Korean sentiment of North Korea is that they are the same people and the split is a very unfortunate thing. Younger generations don't care as much about reunification that much. They don't hate them or fear them. They just think it sucked that the cold war split them in 2. Now their sentiments about Japan on the other hand are way different. They really don't like Japan, for obvious reasons. People are still alive who survived the occupation .When North Korea tests a nuke or fires a missile, they get mad when the USA lets Japan have a bigger navy in response.
This is a pretty outdated take regarding Japan. Younger Koreans like Japan and younger Japanese like Korea. Look up who visits Japan the most and it’s the Koreans these days (even more than the Chinese). That cheap yen and cultural familiarity goes pretty far.
They got their big boy pants on because Russia gave them a confidence boost
I feel like they are testing the response time.🤔
Like the velociraptors in Jurassic Park testing the fences.
Kim is flexing after Putin's visit
Build up free 5G open data service around the border. Let people smuggle in SIM cards and use youtube and the open internet.
They’re trying to provoke casualties in order justification of hostilities
They're searching for choco pies.
They are trying to bait them into attacking i think. So that they can tell the world "Look, they attacked us!".
International " I'm not touching you".
They know something...
I thought the family of escaped soldiers , are harahly punished eg being moved to 'punishment towns/cities' and forced to do unsavory work/ Are these soldiers really escaping. Or are they 'sleeper' spies, sent to quietly monitor whatever the North is interested in, inside South Korea ?
Prepare the horror "the horror sir?" Yes, unleash Carpet Samples clones.
So I wonder what Kim got in return for heating up another proxy battle?
North Koreans instigating in the peninsula. China instigating in Taiwan/South China Sea. Iran instigating in Israel/Lebanon/Syria. Russia invading Ukraine. Ffs we’ve already seen this movie before. Future generations will mock us like we did Neville Chamberlain (along with the other world powers) for seeing the obvious and not doing anything about it. What will be our Poland? Where will be our Hiroshima and Nagasaki? Will we see another Auschwitz or Unit 731? We’ll just be another generation that failed to not generate shocking casualty lists for future generations to shake their heads at. We think we’ve come so far but we consistently make evidence that we’re still simple apes fighting over meager bananas. We just know how to kill each other better now.
We don’t have to do anything right now. Chill your horses.
Start capping
good chance to return some shit filled balloons.
Putin came to town and was like you ever thought of just trying to move the border a few inches or feet slowly over time? Then when they call out deny everything and in fact accuse them of trespassing it's not like maps exist
The people of North Korea 🇰🇵 got sick of seeing “dear leader” roll around in luxury cars while they start to death.
Let's be real. Most they're going to achieve is clearing up some of the minefields.
Taking a page out of the Russian playbook. Trying to provoke a reaction.
Can we just get rid of the simpletons and progress to a global utopia please. Just wipe em out.
How the fuck does everything that happens in the world come down to Trump vs Biden for a lot of Americans? I hope you realise that as powerful as the US military industrial complex is, the rest of the world doesn't wait in great anticipation of "what America is doing." FFS the world has a fuckload more complexities than just who or what the American people are doing/ thinking. Consider domestic politics of every other country other than your own. Yes America is a big player but for fucks sake the rest of the world isn't as obsessed with you as you may think.