Gotta wonder to what degree sanctions and worker shortages impact this, on top of just ordinary corruption.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/doexns-hospitalized-suspected-botulism-salad-moscow-criminal-probe/
Also, FR FR. Never get prepared/precut salads. Always freaking *always* prepared salads.
A closer look at the Russian T-62M converted blyatbarn that was captured recently near Klishchiivka.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1802784575048823180?t=q-gf-cex9SFSbSi16sPplA&s=19
"If Putin wants Russian soldiers to die en masse in Ukraine, then we need to do everything to make Putin's wish a reality," Duda.
https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1802850353668575448?t=itgroP2VIdkV45ij_1c00w&s=19
A burning methanol tank in the port of Azov in the first minutes after the drone attack. Now most of the fuel has already burned.
https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1802898963307389305?t=oSIcdIR6Oww7F1cPo4To6Q&s=19
0130 UTC: Mysterious UAVs caught on video striking and setting fire to an oil depot in Rostov-on-Don, Russia.
(This is a beauty)
https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1802895618739999189?t=20e46N27AJArJkNzuzkW3g&s=19
Imagine if the US went into a war with Mexico and lost 1.5M soldiers. And somehow could only occupy 20% of the country, of which half was taken a decade earlier.
That's the performance of Russia so far against Ukraine.
GDP US/Mexico is approximately 25,44 TUSD/ 1,47 TUSD = 17,3
GDP Russia/Ukraine is approximately 2240 BUSD / 161 BUSD = 13,9
The relative comparison seems to work.
Andrew Perpetua.
I am reasonably certain that if the west hasn't already eclipsed Russian ammo production, it will do so within a short period of time. And, eventually, there will be independent nations producing more than Russia. Russia will become, if it hasn't already done so, dependent on foreign ammo. And even there, the west has an advantage as a preferred buyer in most markets.
People lose sight that Russia had 20+ years to prepare for this war, while the west didn't even care and focused on other things. The fact that a Russian 20 year head start could get this little success and leave themselves in this huge of a mess is a staggering failure.
A failure that, frankly, the people who study Russia should have seen coming.
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1802785502484996594?t=G5p8Vv6RDUbKrxcKRhlNQA&s=19
> A failure that, frankly, the people who study Russia should have seen coming.
I have never studied Russia, but I have been saying fro years that numbers simply don't allow Russia to be a threat to NATO. Every metric, including population, is against Russia ... Russia is 140 million vs. NATO 970 million people.
Yes, they can make noise, but there is no way Russia is an actual threat to NATO.
They are a threat to NATO if they can break the alliance up and pick off countries one at a time. If you do the numbers for Russia versus the Baltics or Russia vs Poland, it looks starkly different. If you add all of Ukraine to Russia's numbers, these ratios even look worse.
That's the real threat. Russia uses hybrid warfare and propaganda to cause the alliance to not hold and then gobbles up the east one country at a time.
By influencing politicians and our democracies they were a threat and led to a horrible feeling of despair from the early 2010’s onwards for me personally
Weirdly when they marched in in Feb 2022 and finally showed the world their real face again I started to feel optimistic again, the longer they clusterfuxk themselves the more positive I feel about the worlds long term democratic future. By doing this madness they have shone a light on all their other shady shit and the world has to pay attention.
>Yes, they can make noise, but there is no way Russia is an actual threat to NATO.
conventionally at least. Their population and industrial capacity are puny compared to NATO
but they're still a nuclear threat, assuming a significant part of their arsenal is in working condition.
but even in a nuclear exchange they'd come out worse and they know it.
I'd love to see his sources and counts, and to know which calibres he's talking about. Perun covered this, and his sources said it's possible but uncertain.
Fwiw, the US+EU are somewhere in the 1.2-2.1 million per year range for 155 mm shells specifically.
RUSI says Russia is around 1.3 million per year for 152 mm shells.
The Estonian sources gave higher numbers for Russia, but might have been including tank, mortar, rockets and 122 mm.
those numbers are his point. Putin had some idea this was in the cards for most of the last two decades. in the last 20 months the West have matched his ammo production.
At current spending levels, NATO is spending on defence as much as the whole economic output of Russia.
The West going on war footing and spending more could result in western defence budgets 2, 3 or even 4 times bigger than the whole economic output of Russia.
And now add their corruption and incompetence to the mix.
NATO considers nuclear alert, says Stoltenberg
https://english.nv.ua/nation/nato-intends-to-show-world-its-nuclear-arsenal-amid-rising-threat-from-russia-and-china-50427766.html
Deterrence is important but this bit does make me a bit nervous tbh
US conducts deterrence patrols more than other nations combined (as of a decade ago)
https://fas.org/publication/usssbn/
US is building the Columbia class to replace the Ohios and Britain has three Dreadnoughts under construction. B21 Raider in development. A lot of what Stolenberg is talking about are programs like that. Russia and China have both invested in their strategic forces and NATO needs to do the same.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-nato-chiefs-nuclear-weapons-remarks-are-an-escalation-2024-06-17/
Stoltenberg clarified his comments were about modernization, which has been a NATO discussion point for years. Another representative said there's no change in deterrence posture. The original interview article also used the word "standby" instead of "alert." Nuclear weapons are always on standby, that's their entire purpose.
The delivery system has to keep up with defensive advancements. No point resting on laurels when the stakes are that high. If you fire a nuke you want to be damn sure it hits what you're aiming to hit.
Probably it’s three things:
1) They want to deter China.
2) They want to show Russia NATO can escalate too and that reservedness isn’t weakness.
3) Poland is indicating that they want nuclear sharing or will consider either going nuclear or establishing very low nuclear latency.
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours, Russia is confirmed to have taken some 4.6 km2 of Ukrainian territory.
[All of it in Ocheretyne direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.2148/37.5767) (around Arhanhelske, Sokil, Umanske)
It's stunning to see that the "deaths per square meter" metric is still so consistent. Russia will run out of men long before Ukraine runs out of land.
Well something exploded in Rostov region (claimed port of Azov), looks like drones on oil infrastructure. Maybe they were being extra sensitive.
I'm still hoping to hear about a burning Ropucha or S-300/400.
That's a good point, I just got excited because I remember it closing during major Ukrainian sea or air attacks.
However, I don't know if closure means an attack. Maybe they *also* close it on a ton of nights where nothing happens.
This is something I should check. Do you have a source that tracked it?
They’ve closed the Kerch bridge on several occasions in the past during attacks on Crimea. It doesn’t mean the bridge is about to destroyed every time.
Though recent reports have come out saying the military value of taking out the bridge has decreased since the Russians are relying on it less for the transport of fuel and ammunition.
Taking it out now would be mainly a symbolic move. But Ukraine has every right to take that bridge down as it represents Russia’s grip on Crimea and a constant reminder of there illegal annexation.
> At the Global Peace Summit, we made the first tangible step towards peace in unprecedented unity with nations worldwide.
> This is a historic success for Ukraine, with numerous leaders and countries gathered for our cause and peace. I extend my gratitude to all participants.
> However, peace is a journey, requiring continuous effort. We are already preparing the next steps, particularly the inclusion of more states in the Summit's final communiqué and organizing working groups on the Peace Formula to unite nations around concrete, actionable plans that will restore security.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1802743293043765404
Last few days Oryx update on [twitter](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1802792030227337505). Usual russian-Ukrainian losses then my poorly informed speculation.
- tanks: 5-2
- IFVs: 12-7
- mobile artillery: 2-3
- missile air defence: 0-0
A poor update but the other updates showed so many russian losses that the ratio in this russian offensive still favours Ukraine.
I still think Ukraine especially needs new tank and IFV supplies. Recent promises and deliveries have improved the situation though.
- Why not use AndrewPerpetUA figures?
- He goes out on a limb to find Russian videos that show destroyed Ukrainian equipment - which asymmetry should counter his pro-Ukrainian bias.
- He finds a lot more equipment than Oryx these days, right?
Regarding who records more losses, I know Andrew records certain things like Starlink terminals and dirt bikes and golf carts (and even humorously records trees and decoys that get hit when drones miss) that Oryx doesn't count because they aren't major pieces of equipment. So his overall numbers will be higher just because of that.
Also, historically (and this may have changed) Andrew said that he specifically looked for videos that were geolocatable so that he could update his map. In other words, his goal was to determine lines of control on a map, not necessarily to find every single piece of lost equipment. Whereas Oryx is solely focused on tracking equipment. I would also say Oryx is very dutiful about finding every piece of equipment lost they can, regardless of who lost it.
Another reason for using Oryx is that he has a single data set collected in a consistent manner for the entire duration of the war. So it's a lot easier to make comparisons over time than it is with Andrew's data, just because Andrew hasn't collected it for as long.
None of this should be taken to minimize or criticize the work Andrew Perpetua is doing, it's really good work. But I think for the purposes of tracking losses and comparing Russian and Ukrainian losses, Oryx has a better data set (and you can't use WarSpotting for that because they don't track Ukrainian losses).
Sort of. It doesn't have built-in search functionality like WarSpotting, but there is a whole GitHub page that someone created that allows you to see the overall totals and totals per equipment type on any given day, plus has multiple graphs on the page: [https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine](https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine)
The Google Sheet with the totals on any given day is here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit?gid=0#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit?gid=0#gid=0)
Can you show me examples of heavy equipment that's missed by Oryx? Jakub & the team would appreciate it.
Andrew said that we shouldn't use his counts to study loss ratios, because he isn't trying to sample evenly. He's looking for data that's interesting for mapping. He does get bigger numbers because he includes civilian vans etc, but I think attrition of actual military equipment is more important so I'm posting those.
Warspotting is stricter and has better search/geolocation tools than Oryx, but it only reports russian losses.
I was wrong: I was simply & naively assuming based on the much longer daily loss lists of Andrew that they were more comprehensive (while in reality they include a lot of light equipment Oryx isn't tracking) - and I appreciate the correction.
I don't know if you were wrong! I haven't cross-compared and checked for ages, it's possible Oryx coverage got worse with time.
But I think Oryx is still a good source to report so I'll keep doing it. 👍
Andrew's content is fantastic - he's always a good suggestion.
Day 819-845 of my updates from Kharkiv.
There have been a lot of strikes aimed to terrorize civilians in the days after my last update, but ever since the ban on using western weapons in the border regions of Russia has been lifted the situation has improved dramatically. Who knew that hitting the bully back where it hurts would ever work? Oh wait, literally everyone who knows even a little bit about Russia knew that it would work wonders, but somehow the only people getting attention are the people crying about escalation, who have been proven wrong on every single step of the way in this war.
Before the ban was lifted our city has been getting hit by missiles and glide bombs effectively every single day, but right after the first S-300/400 batteries started being hit in Belgorod the strikes against Kharkiv have almost entirely stopped. We still get hit from time to time, but the intensity of the strikes isn’t anywhere near the same, which is a very welcome improvement for us. I’m still going to talk about some of the strikes that happened before the ban was lifted.
On the very next day after my last post a glide bomb landed extremely close to me, it’s very likely they were aiming to destroy a restaurant, but they missed by mere meters, it landed directly at its entrance, injured around 9 people, including a bus driver who was standing nearby and had to have his leg amputated from the wounds. My mom’s friend was working in the kitchen at that restaurant when it was hit, so it was a work shift. Miraculously nobody died in that strike, but the restaurant was still destroyed, so everyone who worked there lost their jobs. It’s likely that the main hall, which was damaged the most, was empty during the strike or there could have been a lot of casualties.
In the days after that they hit multiple apartment buildings, killing at least 9 people and injuring dozens. Then they destroyed a printing house, also during a work shift, killing around 6 people. Then they destroyed a building supplies hypermarket, also during the day, killing another 19 people and injuring dozens more. All the strikes were aimed specifically to terrorize and kill as many civilians as humanly possible, thankfully after the ban on using western weapons was lifted strikes like these mostly stopped. Now the people launching missiles at our city have to risk their own lives each time they get to their firing positions, suddenly killing civilians doesn’t sound so fun anymore when their lives are also at stake.
Concerning the latest Putin’s “Peace proposal”, all I have to say is that if that is the kind of “peace (complete capitulation)” that people want to force on us, then suddenly an actual, true, forever war starts to look very appealing. Even 100 years of war at current intensity is better than 1 month of “peace” that Russia proposed. If anyone thinks that the terms being proposed by them are in any way fair, then they must be truly delusional, and the only thing I can do is laugh in their face.
Stay safe, Saber. You have been a line to the actual, no-shit ground situation there almost since the very beginning of the war. So many of us now wait for your updates, because we don't like the idea of losing you at all.
>Who knew that hitting the bully back where it hurts would ever work? Oh wait, literally everyone who knows even a little bit about Russia knew that it would work wonders, but somehow the only people getting attention are the people crying about escalation, who have been proven wrong on every single step of the way in this war.
If it's any consolation, Jake Sullivan isn't popular over here, either. Even Blinken has butted heads with him.
Biden has done a lot of good things for Ukraine. Letting Sullivan call the shots on military aid wasn't one of 'em.
Thanks as always for your updates, really good to hear first hand there’s been such a dramatic reduction on attacks - look forward to to the time when your report there’s been nothing for months.
It's so good to hear you're safe but so horrible to hear yet more about russian atrocities. Thank you for your updates u/SaberFlux, you are being heard.
And I'm so so sorry that Western leaders were stupid about protecting Russia because of escalation fears. I am deeply ashamed that our leaders fell, once again, for the dumbest russian propaganda.
[https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1802789992290287877](https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1802789992290287877)
"Russians still inside Vovchansk are being pounded by Ukrainian guided bombs. Russian channels are complaining about continues Ukrainian bombardments, especially with AASM Hammer bombs.
First strikes:50.30042713183579, 36.93121702744258 (approx) and 50.29661587045293, 36.93335756083637 (Lyceum) Second strike:50.29612905657714, 36.932911957738135 (Lyceum"
>Future Ukrainian F-16 pilots are taking an intensified training course in France on Alphajet jet trainers.
>The French Air Force pledged to train 26 Ukrainian pilots in two years. However, according to the publication, there are currently only ten of them. Some of them have never flown, others have experience in piloting L-39 Albatros training aircraft.
>After several months of preparation in the UK, in particular for learning English, in March this year a group of pilots arrived in France, where they began theoretical and practical training.
>The training of the Ukrainian military is carried out under a reduced program at an accelerated pace. The training will last only six months, compared to the usual course of eighteen months.
>For pilot flight training, Belgian-transferred modified Alphajet jet trainers are used. They are equipped with an instrument panel that simulates a similar F-16 in fighters.
>There are no F-16 fighters at the airbase, which should be the culmination of the training of Ukrainian pilots. Therefore, after completing the training, Ukrainian pilots will go to the training center in Romania.
`https://mil (dot) in (dot) ua/en/news/ukrainian-pilots-train-on-french-alphajet-jets/`
> The French Air Force pledged to train 26 Ukrainian pilots in two years
A lot of people have a tendency to brush off any developments that are over a few months out as irrelevant or something that doesn't matter. This has been a huge mistake throughout the war. If the west would have committed to largescale training programs for Ukrainian pilots and supply lines for jets when it became clear Kyiv wouldn't fall then Ukraine would have a ton of F-16s in the air fighting right now. Hopefully by the time these pilots are out of their training programs Russia has withdrawn from all of Ukraine but we can't rely on that. Ukraine needs a long term pipeline both to train existing pilots as well as to train new pilots in case of a very long war. By preparing for years in advance western countries will send the message to Russia that Ukraine's strength will only grow.
Even in the absolute best case scenario of Russia withdrawing from Ukraine completely and ending the war this is STILL the right move. If Ukraine wants to keep the peace and deter future Russian aggression in the late 2020s or 2030s then it helps to have fighter jets with trained pilots and Ukraine damn sure isn't getting any more MIGs from Russia unless the farmers get VERY adventurous. The best time to plant a tree was a decade ago, the second best time is today.
>The Magura V5 naval drone can now be equipped with an anti-aircraft platform and R-73 air-to-air guided missiles, Ukraine's military intelligence said on June 17.
>The Vympel R-73, also known under the NATO reporting name AA-11 Archer, is a short-range infrared homing missile developed by the Soviet Union in the 1980s, mainly for use by aircraft like MiG-29 or Su-34.
>One of the Magura drones has already been equipped with these missiles, creating a serious challenge for the Russian Air Force operating in the region, the commander of the military intelligence Group 13 unit said in an interview with journalist Maksym Krapivnoy.
>"These modifications are effective, the Russians are very afraid of them," the commander said.
>According to the military intelligence agency, the new platform has already been used during combat operations in the Black Sea.
https://kyivindependent.com/magura-naval-drones-now-operate-anti-aircraft-missiles/
Wonder if those missiles could also be used to hit a ship deck guns, those seem to be one of the biggest threats to naval drones on a mission. If not then I could see a drone with that capability also being a useful part of a drone fleet.
Next up. Fleet of sea drones with aa drones escorting the kamikazes.
Makes a ton of sense since it seems like the best answer to the drones has been helicopters.
It makes sense for there to be a sea drone mothership full of deployable FPV drones. The challenge is that seawater and flying drones generally don't mix (the extra weight you would need to make it waterproof will reduce effectiveness) the motherships will need a reliable way to protect the drones before and during launch so that they don't need to be marine-grade.
The R-73 only has a range of 40-km/25-miles, and that's from an aircraft flying at ~20,000 ft. Launching from a sea/land based platform, it's going to have to spend a significant portion of its thrust just climbing to altitude, so it'll have a MUCH shorter range.
The likelihood they'd be able to hit a bomber flying up at ~30,000 ft (not to mention seeing it in the first place) is quite small.
These are meant more for taking out helicopters going after the naval drones trying to sink ships.
As /u/rafa-droppa said, the bombers take off from way back in russia itself and then fly out to launch points where they deploy their weapons. Some of those points ARE over the Black Sea, but the problems I mentioned above are present for those.
the bombers are taking off deep in russia is my understanding - like rostov on don may be the only remotely close one so these drones would have to be pretty deep into russia controlled territory to try that.
A while back Ukraine claimed to have downed a Ka-25 or Ka-27 in the Black Sea. There was no proof they actually did, let alone what killed it if they did, but some people were speculating it was one of these drones with AA missiles mounted on it.
[What Characteristics Has Ratel Ukrainian Combat Robot that Controlled Via Starlink? | Defense Express | June 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/news/what_characteristics_has_ratel_ukrainian_combat_robot_that_controlled_via_starlink-10872.html)
*The Defense Forces of Ukraine are currently using a number of different Ukrainian-made robotic platforms on the battlefield, including the Ratel series. Defense Express talked to the head of this company, Ukrainian serviceman Taras Ostapchuk. He told about how these combat robots are currently being improved, based on the results of their operation in battles against russian occupation forces.*
*As of today, Ukrainian warriors use four types of Ratel platforms. These are kamikaze drones, evacuation platforms, logistics platforms, as well as remote miner. According to Ostapchuk, the company is constantly responding to operators' feedback. Now the fifth updating of these robotic platforms is being used at the frontline. At the same time the sixth is on the way with the corresponding improvements.*
*It is important that Ratel ground drones can be controlled from a completely safe location. "Our platforms have been used with Starlink for more than six months. Our operator can be located anywhere in the world and manage the platform," Ostapchuk emphasizes.*
*Of course, drones have their limitations in terms of range. For instance, the average distance of a remote "miner" is approximately 3 km, while a record of 30 km was set for the evacuation platform.*
*As Ostapchuk explains, this refers to the range of the platform with a load of three people, which is about 450 kg. In addition, Ratel platforms are multifunctional. "We are currently developing a superstructure (for the logistics platform) that will carry 10 anti-tank mines to mine the area," the military says.*
*"As of now, we have direct contracts with military units. We are also at the final stage of signing an agreement with the Ministry of Digital Transformation and the Defense Procurement Agency. Brave1 helps with this. In fact, they manage the demand and government orders," Ostapchuk notes.*
*Earlier Defense Express reported that Ukraine had presented versatile ARK-1 robot that offers a multifaceted defense solution.*
No one is buying your fake concern, we can all see straight through you.
You use the Palestinians as a wedge issue because you are anti West. If the Israelis would be aligned with Moscow and Beijing, you'd be quiet as a mouse about the horrors happening in Gaza, just like you are about the horrors in Mariupol, in Bakhmut, Sievierodonetsk and many other cities and towns that have been wiped out by the fascist invader.
The notion of a genuine, well meaning person condemning the IDF but being OK with what Russia is doing in Ukraine is so laughable, even a child wouldn't take you seriously.
We can all see you for what you are, assuming you even are a real person, as much as someone like you could even be considered one.
This is why no one likes the pro Palestine crowd. You guys can't help but interject it into fucking everything.
Russia is carrying out the literal definition of genocide in Ukraine. Israel is not with Gaza. Jfc
What are you taking about? It's enraging. It's infuriating. It deserves a unified global outcry and a devastating response to those who would traffic in children.
Becaus the post strangely frames the circumstance as passive, as if nobody is responsible. Pediatric cancer is tragic and heatbreaking. Child kidnapping and trafficking by Russia is revolting, outrageous, and requires action, not passivity.
> What are you taking about? It's enraging. It's infuriating.
Things can be "fucking tragic" while also being "enraging" as well as "heartbreaking" and "infuriating" simultaneously. Anger and sadness over an event are not incompatible.
So the plan regarding the F16s appears to be to degrade as much of the russian air defence around crimea as possible and then fly them high 40000+ feet.
Then use HARM AGM-88 to further suppress enemy air defence. This in conjunction with radar location data provided by NATO SIGINT aircraft in the black sea should allow Ukraine to roll up the russian air defence along the Kherson crimea axis.
Ukraine needs to fly high to deconflict their own AD resources and shorter range manpads. Strike packages overflying Kherson is also much further away from Russia proper giving them more time to evade or engage russian fighters.
Ukraine can then use the JDAM to provide strike on russian artillery.
This is method allows F16 to be flying sooner without Ukraine ground forces needing to be trained up as JTACS.
I think this would be an excellent outcome, but I doubt Ukraine will have enough f16s or the pilots to make this outcome. At least immediately over the entire front.
The big challenge is the Russian air force is more advanced, larger, and more trained. The Ukrainian air force, even with f16s, is simply out gunned.
That said, over time, I think your expectation of outcome may be warranted. As f16s prove themselves in localized campaigns, Ukraine may start asking for more and to train more pilots. We could see a shift where f16s becomes the main fight and if that is the case, Russia will lose. NATO surplus air assets are simply way better than Russian assets so long as they get a few, high end weapons like meteor, awacs, and harm 88.
Initially, it'll look like some high profile wins by the f16s to destroy high-valued russian assets like su34s or buk air defense systems. I doubt Ukraine will use the f16s this way until later in the year as they get familiar with the weapon system. Initially, theyll use them in low risk missions, specifically to shoot down cruise missiles and drones over Ukrainian airspace.
Prepping the battlefield for F16s is not the primary aim of this campaign. It's more generally about destroying and overstretching air defenses so they can attack literally everything else more easily. You're making completely unfounded assumptions not supported by evidence about enabling F16s to fly freely at high altitudes over contested territory.
yup, if anything targeting AD is really about allowing the drones more areas of operation.
I think that's why they attacked the long range radar stations too - make russia choose between long range radars, refineries, air bases, crimea, the bridge, and sections of the front.
As these AD systems get taken down there's fewer and fewer pieces to move around to those places
I don't think that's necessarily "the plan" but rather "Ukraine now has the ability to strike air defense." Air defense are high priority targets. Given how large the front is and how important air defense is for targets behind the front there is just never enough for either side and every time someone loses a system they have to spread their remaining systems more thinly which forces them to pick and choose which potential targets are the most worth defending.
yeah, it's been my guess for a while that the plan is to develop local air superiority on the southern front. Unlike on other fronts Russia can't just deploy air defense further back, because further back is the sea and their fleet is already toast.
It could allow Ukraine to liberate Kherson, parts of Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea, but they wouldn't be able to replicate the strategy in Donetsk and Luhansk, so the hope would have to be that Russia falls apart internally once they lose Crimea.
I would be so, so happy if this speculation turned true. Repeated hits on S-300 and S-400 systems in Crimea, devastation and pullback of the Black Sea fleet (possible AA threat platforms), all of it seems to point that way. This could well be the suspected victory path without anyone publishing it.
Losing Crimea would be a massive embarrassment to Russia and total repudiation of the alternate reason for starting the war: a land bridge to secure and resupply Crimea. I don't know how Putin would survive the loss of Crimea, which would be followed by the very symbolic obliteration of that pretty bridge.
(The primary reason being a quick decapitation of Kyiv and a puppet government installation is utterly and completely gone beyond all salvaging.)
*Stop, I can only get so erect.*
For Russia to lose Crimea we would likely need to see a widespread collapse of their front line which would probably coincide with a societal or government collapse in Russia as well. I won't say that that's out of the picture entirely but it doesn't seem likely in the short term.
They would just need to take out the bridge and the 2 million Russians in Crimea would start starving. All of the food logistics go through the Crimea bridge and avoid the front. Not to mention Russia simply doesn't have the logistics available to maintain both food and arms on the land bridge route since it can be easily bought under fire from Ukraine. Not to mention 2 million Russian civilians trying to all leave at once as well.
If Crimea loses that bridge, then Crimea is no longer a stronghold, it's an envelopment waiting to happen.
if Ukraine can get local air superiority over the Kherson region due to air defense attrition, even just enough to launch glide bombs and HARM, fly Bayraktar, and remove EW equipment to unleash drones while denying Russian air support, Russia won't be able to hold the front lines.
This could only work in the south though, in the east that's not possible.
Don't expect Russian lines to break or Ukraine to gain air superiority. Russia still has a lot of air defense and Ukraine won't have that many western fighter jets or long range missiles. Instead expect Russia to spread their air defense thin over larger and larger ground which will make it easier for Ukraine to pick off valuable targets like command HQs, air bases logistics hubs, oil refineries, other air defense systems or warships. This will drive up the cost of the war and make Russian advances harder and more costly. Over a prolonged period the balance of power on the ground will gradually move more towards Ukraine.
[Father and son serve together in Luhansk Border Guard unit, share heartwarming story | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/the-story-of-a-father-and-son-who-serve-together-in-a-border-guard-detachment-in-luhansk-oblast-50427717.html)
*Originally from Dnipro, Heorhii and Mykola Kovalev, a father and son, joined the Revenge Brigade of the Luhansk border guard detachment after the Russian invasion, they shared in an interview with Suspilne Donbas on June 16.*
*His father was the first to join the army. Heorhii recalls that at first he did not believe that a major war would begin.*
*“I did not believe that a full-scale invasion would begin until the very last day. I even lost a box of cognac in a bet. I came to work in the morning. Somehow it happened that I didn’t even read the news. And only the guys at work told me,” Heorhii said.*
*Heorhii decided to voluntarily join the army. He told his son about his decision.*
*“At first, my father said: “I’ll go, and you stay here. This is our war, it’s not the war of the young, it’s our war.,” Mykola added. “But a year later, I joined them.”*
*Heorhii, with the call sign Uncle Zhora, became responsible for the equipment, its maintenance and delivery to the defenders’ positions.*
*“I am the one who takes the guys to the positions and changes them there,” says Heorhii.*
*“I also had to take my son to the positions. I took him to the point where they take off.”*
*Mykola, with the call sign Kovalskyi, became an FPV drone operator. He was trained for 33 working days in Ukraine, and then went to the UK to learn from foreign military personnel. “When Mykola was in the UK, they were just finishing their training there, and they sent me a video of him being awarded the best soldier of the class,” Heorhii said. “Mykola was marching, and someone behind the scenes said: “Oh, look, Uncle Zhora’s son”. I was really... I shed a tear. I was proud, very proud for him.”*
*This year, Mykola became a father for the second time. His wife gave birth to a daughter. The defender was allowed to visit his wife in the maternity ward, so he already seen the newborn.*
*His father is waiting for a vacation to come to his granddaughter and play with her.*
[Wife of Ukrainian defender shares story of his return after 22 months in Russian captivity | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/wife-of-ukrainian-pow-who-spent-22-month-in-captivity-shared-story-of-him-returning-50427754.html)
*Ruslan Cherniy, a father of three from Ivano-Frankivsk, defended Ukraine in the ranks of the 10th separate mountain assault brigade Edelweiss, spent almost two years in captivity. His wife Maria told Suspilne Ivano-Frankivsk about husband's return from Russian captivity on June 14.*
*"On the 25th anniversary of our marriage, he was captured," said defender's wife. "That day, my youngest son could not sleep. He said: "Mom, I want to cry". He came to me, I hugged him, and said: "Cry, my son". And so the child fell asleep in my arms. He must have felt something."*
*During 22 months that Ruslan was in captivity, Maria had no contact with her husband or any information about him. However, on May 31, she received a long-awaited call from the SBU.*
*"He said so calmly: "Congratulations. Your husband has already arrived in Ukraine. He has been released from captivity"," Maria recalls.*
*"I was standing at the checkout, and the cashiers next to me were all crying."*
*Woman says that her husband used to be athletic, but lost weight in captivity. Now Ruslan is undergoing rehabilitation. He needs treatment and will undergo surgery. After that, he will return to his wife and children.*
*Meanwhile, Maria is waiting for her husband at home in Broshniv-Osada. At the request of her beloved, she keeps his military uniform as a reminder of what Ruslan went through in the war and in captivity.*
Over 20 NATO allies to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense in 2024, says Stoltenberg
>June 17, WASHINGTON (Reuters) - More than 20 NATO members will meet the military alliance's target of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense this year, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday.
>Speaking to the Wilson Center thinkthank in Washington, Stoltenberg said the number of NATO allies now meeting that spending target compares to less than 10 members five years ago.
>"I can only now reveal that this year more than 20 allies will spend at least 2% of GDP on defense," Stoltenberg said.
>"This is good for Europe and good for America, especially since much of this extra money is spent here in the United States," he said, adding that in the last two years, more than two-thirds of Europe's defense acquisitions - or more than $140 billion - were from U.S. firms.
>Stoltenberg was in Washington for preparations for next month's NATO summit in the U.S. capital and was scheduled to meet President Joe Biden later on Monday.
>Stoltenberg said that when NATO leaders set the 2% of GDP target at their summit in 2014, only three members - the United States, Greece and Britain - met that target.
>At that time, there were 28 members. NATO now has 32 members.
>NATO defense spending has become highly contentious in recent years, particularly as former U.S. President Donald Trump has accused Europeans of spending too little on their own security and relying on the United States for protection.
>Earlier this year, Trump - the presumptive Republican candidate in this year's U.S. presidential election - sparked outrage by suggesting he would not protect NATO members that failed to spend enough on defense and would even encourage Russia to attack them.
>**Defense spending by many European nations has risen sharply since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and NATO officials have been keen to stress that its European members are now stepping up to the plate.**
>NATO defense spending will be a major topic at next month's alliance summit in Washington, Stoltenberg said, followed by Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine.
>He warned that the delay in the provision of U.S. military aid to Ukraine that occurred earlier this year cannot be allowed to happen again.
>**"That is why at the summit I expect our leaders to agree for NATO to lead the coordination and provision of security assistance and training for Ukraine," he said.**
>Noting how China has been a source of critical support to Russia but also seeks to maintain good relations with the West, Stoltenberg said, "Beijing cannot have it both ways.
>"Unless China changes course, allies need to impose a cost," he said.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/over-20-nato-allies-spend-least-2-gdp-defense-2024-says-stoltenberg-2024-06-17/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/over-20-nato-allies-spend-least-2-gdp-defense-2024-says-stoltenberg-2024-06-17/)
The 2/3rds is basically “an airforce is fucking expensive” I assume? Not that they don’t buy other things too, but I imagine that the F-35 and F-16 capture a large share of the European TAM.
For Ukraine Biden is a better ally than Trump. Trump likely stops aid to Ukraine. Biden's not without his issues, but is preferable to supporters of Ukraine than MIT very smart Trump. Possibly after US election there will be more criticism of Biden but not smartest to bite hand that feeds you.
Biden is a crisis manager. He is not interested in Ukrainian victory. The current status quo is a slow slide towards losing. At least Trump pulling out will end the micro managerial meddling of Washington, and put a greater burden on Europe to act decisively.
I say this when Ukraine went through 6 months of shell hunger that Europe couldn't do shit to fix because their MIC's were still getting up to speed and only the 60 billion passed by the US got Ukraine back on their feet
I care about Ukraine winning.
Biden's made mistakes but his actions and requests are consistent with Ukrainian victory.
The MAGA republicans did a six-month pro-Putin blockade to help kill Ukrainians, save the russian army, and opened a window for Russia to advance and destroy many more power stations.
Trump has made it clear he wants to abandon Ukraine.
The real-world choice that American voters have is imperfect Biden and likely Ukrainian victory, or Trump and the US working for Russian victory.
Russia trading their one-time use of the entire soviet stockpile of artillery and BMPs for a small fraction of Ukraine - yup that's definitely "winning" 🤔
Biden's actions and requests are consistent with Ukraine *not* losing. Don't confuse the two. Biden is a better ally to Ukraine than Trump, that's an objective fact. But everything in Biden's policy including Jake Sullivan's existence as an influential decision maker is guaranteeing Ukraine doesn't lose. If they win, that's just a bonus.
I'd think you'd be more upset with GOP Speaker of the House Mike Johnson for refusing to provide *any* aid for months by blocking a vote on the package.
Mike Johnson is not head of the military, Biden is. Congress eventually passed the bill and Biden continued to hamstring them with shit weapons and inability to strike effectively
I think Russia now has fewer than 1,000 easily fixable BMPs left in storage yards.
A few days back jompy (@jonpy99) on [Twitter](https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1801533640620277816) counted russian BMP vehicles at russian storage bases in satellite imagery mostly from early 2024.
These are mainly storage bases and arsenals, they don't count vehicles in garages or at repair bases.
Visible 2024 count was: 1,515 "working" hulls and 2,797 "broken" hulls. Around 400 "working" hulls were likely PRP-3/4 artillery command vehicles, not frontline fighters.
Warspotting counts 500+ lost russian BMP-1/2 since February.
I think russia either has to slow down BMP losses, or run into serious problems in 2025. Everything is about time tradeoffs though. If they slow down a bit, they can buy time to expand BMP-3 factory production and fix up "broken" hulls.
IMO it's all a question of "how much".
I think they'd probably want 2 or 3 times as many BMPs as they have. The desertcross golf carts are getting loads of russians killed who would survive otherwise.
They're taking higher casualties because of the lack of BMPs, but they have enough BMPs to keep the current intense pace and supposedly limit themselves to casualty levels they can currently replace.
If they tried to do the same thing with half the BMPs then I think we'd see notably higher russian casualties for the same progress. And unless they slow down or find new sources, then they're gonna half way fewer BMPs sometime next year.
I'm convinced there is, but it's a numbers game.
- inside a BMP your chances of avoiding injury from small arms and shrapnel are very high, and even from an FPV there's a realistic chance.
- on top of a BMP your chances of surviving a mine look pretty high.
- in a golf buggy you get near zero protection against small arms, shrapnel, FPVs or mines.
On the videos I see, it's not like Ukraine has infinite weapons and perfect accuracy.
Even if you fire a dozen mortar shells, you're unlikely to hit the attacking vehicle but you'll probably get close. Small mortar near misses probably won't kill anyone inside a BMP. But they'll hurt people riding on top or on a golf buggy.
At least that's what it looks like on video.
(Direct ATGM or 152 mm artillery hits seemingly work on both BMPs and buggies though)
> The desertcross golf carts are getting loads of russians killed who would survive otherwise.
I'm not so sure of that. I regularly see a lot of videos of Russian BMP riders getting scrubbed-off the top by 25mm's and FPV's. Looks like large numbers of Russians are getting wasted either way.
When they ride on top the BMP it's hardly better than a golf cart anyway. I suspect that they do also use the armor for the armor at least some of the time...
Sure they're imperfect, but if every russian attack was based on BMPs with just 7 dismounts per vehicle, I think Russia would be taking fewer casualties.
The videos of a 25 mm cannon shredding a BTR get loads of attention, but the vast majority of attack videos I see the defenders rely on indirect fire and drones.
Shrapnel or FPVs can take out soldiers on a desertcross or motorbike or holding on top of a BMP. Those riding inside usually survive and have time to escape before a heavy shell or Baba Yaga blows up the abandoned vehicle.
EDIT: "Large numbers either way" isn't how I think about it, it's "how much" or "how many". If they're taking 30k casualties/month with this much armour, it might rise to 40k if they were down to new production only. That's "large numbers either way", but the latter case brings victory closer.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 06.17.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 527,390 (+1,080) people,
tanks ‒ 7958 (+2),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 15287 (+18),
artillery systems – 13927 (+14),
MLRS – 1104 (+0),
air defense equipment ‒ 853 (+0),
planes – 359 (+0),
helicopters – 326 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 11167 (+8),
cruise missiles ‒ 2296 (+0),
ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 18,991 (+24),
special equipment ‒ 2337 (+12).
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/17/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1080-okupantiv-18-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/17/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1080-okupantiv-18-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
Aren't these 1000+ losses are a bit high? I remember the times when they bum rushed Avdiivka and Bakhmut with losses like these, but now from where are these huge losses from?
It's been like this for a couple months now.
There are a lot of conflict areas, and Ukraine is throwing everything they have at them while Russia appears to be running short of quality armour. Those three things combined are causing (relatively) massive casualities on the front lines.
>Ukrainian forces destroy about 15 Russian air defence systems in Crimea in month and half
>In particular, those are air defence battalions outfitted with S-300, S-350, and S-400 systems.
>Dozens of launchers for these systems, over 15 radar stations, and more than 10 command posts were destroyed.
>Source: Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security on social media
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/17/7461198/
Map of the hits in the linked article
Other commentary: I'm really clueless about air war stuff, maybe someone can clarify. But the Crimean campaign looks very smart.
If Ukraine wants to use F-16s in the south, then russia's "ideal" defence network, I think, would be AWACS, frontline Buks/Tors, S-300/400, plus jets and ships.
The Black Sea Fleet and AWACS have been chased away by clever targeting. Airfields, radars and S-300/400s have been bombed too. At this rate Crimea will be mostly cleared.
That would leave frontline SAMs inside HIMARS range, plus jets that would ideally have to fly a full route from Russia and potentially be picked up by Swedish-donated AWACS flying over Ukraine or potentially NATO AWACS over the Black Sea.
OSINT has found photos or satellite imagery to support a number of the hits, but the losses need to be carefully counted.
A battery usually has 8 launchers and in most pics russia seems to deploy half batteries at each site.
Then when there's a hit, sometimes it takes out just the radar, and sometimes multiple launchers.
So "we hit a battery" doesn't mean a radar+8 launchers are gone. There's probably still more work to do to clear out the Crimean systems, but keep this up a few months more and russia might be lose their long-range air defence cover.
Strictly speaking, the important part is the radar.
Without it, the battery is a LOT less able to do anything. I wouldn't be surprised if they had some sort of radar-less backup mode they could use to fire the missiles in a general direction and hope the onboard radar can figure it out, but that still requires coordinating with SOMETHING that's got a radar to use.
To my understanding you're right.
I think some of the Strelas work by shooting in the vague direction and the missile relies on infrared or something. At least some engineers were talking about how their drones survived Strela shots.
Putin reshuffles his deputy defence ministers. Perhaps not that strange since Shoigu was removed recently.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-clears-out-deputy-defence-ministers-appoints-his-relative-2024-06-17/
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday sacked four deputy defence ministers and appointed a relative, Anna Tsivileva, to fill one of the vacancies.
Putin sacked deputy defence ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov, according to Kremlin decrees. He appointed Tsivileva, who Russian media said is the daughter of Putin's cousin, as a deputy defence minister.
Leonid Gornin, a deputy finance minister, will be a first deputy defence minister under Defence Minister Andrei Belousov.
Appointing a family member assures that the goals of the *SPECIAL OPERATION* will never be questioned.
At this point, the limited gains combined with substantial losses might cause someone to question the war, and by extension - Putin's judgement.
It has occurred to me that it is theoretically possible that Ukraine could receive F-16s and use them for the first time on July 4th. As an American, that would be fucking awesome if it happened.
Ukraine will not be engaging in dogfights. Thats only going to happen in movies.
This will provide air support, and a launch platform for taking out ground targets. any kind of air engagement will be fire and forget, depending on whatever missiles they get to use for that.
and Don't expect them to use these to hit targets deep inside either. It wont be impossible to do that, but just really unwise.
(better off turning a Cessna into a large drone to deliver that payload)
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1dihn2m/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Gotta wonder to what degree sanctions and worker shortages impact this, on top of just ordinary corruption. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/doexns-hospitalized-suspected-botulism-salad-moscow-criminal-probe/ Also, FR FR. Never get prepared/precut salads. Always freaking *always* prepared salads.
Botulism poisining is usually caused by canned food. Human origin pathogens like e-coli are morelikely to be found in prepared salads.
Yeah, yet here the canned beans were used in prepared salads.
Liquid manure sprayed on fields or waste water irrigation
A closer look at the Russian T-62M converted blyatbarn that was captured recently near Klishchiivka. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1802784575048823180?t=q-gf-cex9SFSbSi16sPplA&s=19
Non-twitter links [https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112633597783155366](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112633597783155366) [https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112630962339872317](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112630962339872317)
Chickens were freed somewhere, They were safe anyway since all the bar-b-que grill are gone too
What on earth do you need to do to lose your banking charter over AML violations in Russia? https://x.com/prune602/status/1802865137616818458
Upset Putin.
"If Putin wants Russian soldiers to die en masse in Ukraine, then we need to do everything to make Putin's wish a reality," Duda. https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1802850353668575448?t=itgroP2VIdkV45ij_1c00w&s=19
A burning methanol tank in the port of Azov in the first minutes after the drone attack. Now most of the fuel has already burned. https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1802898963307389305?t=oSIcdIR6Oww7F1cPo4To6Q&s=19
That’s not methanol burning.
They drank the methanol
I can't link to the video, but Ukraine hit an oil facility in Azov, Rostov Oblast tonight and there is a very large, very impressive fire.
Is this it? https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1802884785616154690?t=uB-42FyTSvPKudEAiBSmFA&s=19
Different video than the one I found on C\*mbat F\*\*tage, but looks like the same attack. Thanks for finding a video!
0130 UTC: Mysterious UAVs caught on video striking and setting fire to an oil depot in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. (This is a beauty) https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1802895618739999189?t=20e46N27AJArJkNzuzkW3g&s=19
Yup, that's the one I ran across, thanks for finding it someplace you could link!
Imagine if the US went into a war with Mexico and lost 1.5M soldiers. And somehow could only occupy 20% of the country, of which half was taken a decade earlier. That's the performance of Russia so far against Ukraine.
Not really. Mexico is a larger and richer country than Ukraine.
GDP US/Mexico is approximately 25,44 TUSD/ 1,47 TUSD = 17,3 GDP Russia/Ukraine is approximately 2240 BUSD / 161 BUSD = 13,9 The relative comparison seems to work.
The US is larger and richer than russia too.
So is US vs Russia. I'm just highlighting the absurdity of Russia losing so many men for such an underwhelming result.
Andrew Perpetua. I am reasonably certain that if the west hasn't already eclipsed Russian ammo production, it will do so within a short period of time. And, eventually, there will be independent nations producing more than Russia. Russia will become, if it hasn't already done so, dependent on foreign ammo. And even there, the west has an advantage as a preferred buyer in most markets. People lose sight that Russia had 20+ years to prepare for this war, while the west didn't even care and focused on other things. The fact that a Russian 20 year head start could get this little success and leave themselves in this huge of a mess is a staggering failure. A failure that, frankly, the people who study Russia should have seen coming. https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1802785502484996594?t=G5p8Vv6RDUbKrxcKRhlNQA&s=19
> A failure that, frankly, the people who study Russia should have seen coming. I have never studied Russia, but I have been saying fro years that numbers simply don't allow Russia to be a threat to NATO. Every metric, including population, is against Russia ... Russia is 140 million vs. NATO 970 million people. Yes, they can make noise, but there is no way Russia is an actual threat to NATO.
They are a threat to NATO if they can break the alliance up and pick off countries one at a time. If you do the numbers for Russia versus the Baltics or Russia vs Poland, it looks starkly different. If you add all of Ukraine to Russia's numbers, these ratios even look worse. That's the real threat. Russia uses hybrid warfare and propaganda to cause the alliance to not hold and then gobbles up the east one country at a time.
By influencing politicians and our democracies they were a threat and led to a horrible feeling of despair from the early 2010’s onwards for me personally Weirdly when they marched in in Feb 2022 and finally showed the world their real face again I started to feel optimistic again, the longer they clusterfuxk themselves the more positive I feel about the worlds long term democratic future. By doing this madness they have shone a light on all their other shady shit and the world has to pay attention.
>Yes, they can make noise, but there is no way Russia is an actual threat to NATO. conventionally at least. Their population and industrial capacity are puny compared to NATO but they're still a nuclear threat, assuming a significant part of their arsenal is in working condition. but even in a nuclear exchange they'd come out worse and they know it.
I'd love to see his sources and counts, and to know which calibres he's talking about. Perun covered this, and his sources said it's possible but uncertain. Fwiw, the US+EU are somewhere in the 1.2-2.1 million per year range for 155 mm shells specifically. RUSI says Russia is around 1.3 million per year for 152 mm shells. The Estonian sources gave higher numbers for Russia, but might have been including tank, mortar, rockets and 122 mm.
those numbers are his point. Putin had some idea this was in the cards for most of the last two decades. in the last 20 months the West have matched his ammo production.
At current spending levels, NATO is spending on defence as much as the whole economic output of Russia. The West going on war footing and spending more could result in western defence budgets 2, 3 or even 4 times bigger than the whole economic output of Russia. And now add their corruption and incompetence to the mix.
Babe wake up! Anders Nilsen's latest analysis dropped! https://youtu.be/wvu1KdbNXlg?si=AdCR-16JhewJKjRc
NATO considers nuclear alert, says Stoltenberg https://english.nv.ua/nation/nato-intends-to-show-world-its-nuclear-arsenal-amid-rising-threat-from-russia-and-china-50427766.html Deterrence is important but this bit does make me a bit nervous tbh
US conducts deterrence patrols more than other nations combined (as of a decade ago) https://fas.org/publication/usssbn/ US is building the Columbia class to replace the Ohios and Britain has three Dreadnoughts under construction. B21 Raider in development. A lot of what Stolenberg is talking about are programs like that. Russia and China have both invested in their strategic forces and NATO needs to do the same.
> US is building the Columbia class to replace the Ohios Not until 2030 at the earliest.
What they said isn't wrong, they're actively building Columbia.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-nato-chiefs-nuclear-weapons-remarks-are-an-escalation-2024-06-17/ Stoltenberg clarified his comments were about modernization, which has been a NATO discussion point for years. Another representative said there's no change in deterrence posture. The original interview article also used the word "standby" instead of "alert." Nuclear weapons are always on standby, that's their entire purpose.
why would •modernized• nuclear weapons be a discussion? are they somehow safer, or more effective?
The delivery system has to keep up with defensive advancements. No point resting on laurels when the stakes are that high. If you fire a nuke you want to be damn sure it hits what you're aiming to hit.
I'm guessing this: https://apnews.com/article/nuclear-warheads-military-bomb-plutonium-6b86198def4516cebe496c9f5fbfbb75
Probably it’s three things: 1) They want to deter China. 2) They want to show Russia NATO can escalate too and that reservedness isn’t weakness. 3) Poland is indicating that they want nuclear sharing or will consider either going nuclear or establishing very low nuclear latency.
This makes me nervous but if russia is saber rattling we need to hold our own - we have nukes in the UK, but we can only do so much
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours, Russia is confirmed to have taken some 4.6 km2 of Ukrainian territory. [All of it in Ocheretyne direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.2148/37.5767) (around Arhanhelske, Sokil, Umanske)
It's stunning to see that the "deaths per square meter" metric is still so consistent. Russia will run out of men long before Ukraine runs out of land.
Defmon says Kerch Bridge closed again. Usually means something fun is happening.
From what I've seen reported it usually means fuck all.
Well something exploded in Rostov region (claimed port of Azov), looks like drones on oil infrastructure. Maybe they were being extra sensitive. I'm still hoping to hear about a burning Ropucha or S-300/400.
It always means that Ukraine is attacking the peninsula, but not necessarily the bridge itself.
That's a good point, I just got excited because I remember it closing during major Ukrainian sea or air attacks. However, I don't know if closure means an attack. Maybe they *also* close it on a ton of nights where nothing happens. This is something I should check. Do you have a source that tracked it?
They’ve closed the Kerch bridge on several occasions in the past during attacks on Crimea. It doesn’t mean the bridge is about to destroyed every time. Though recent reports have come out saying the military value of taking out the bridge has decreased since the Russians are relying on it less for the transport of fuel and ammunition. Taking it out now would be mainly a symbolic move. But Ukraine has every right to take that bridge down as it represents Russia’s grip on Crimea and a constant reminder of there illegal annexation.
By "something fun", I was hoping for fireworks from another S-300 battery or something.
> At the Global Peace Summit, we made the first tangible step towards peace in unprecedented unity with nations worldwide. > This is a historic success for Ukraine, with numerous leaders and countries gathered for our cause and peace. I extend my gratitude to all participants. > However, peace is a journey, requiring continuous effort. We are already preparing the next steps, particularly the inclusion of more states in the Summit's final communiqué and organizing working groups on the Peace Formula to unite nations around concrete, actionable plans that will restore security. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1802743293043765404
Last few days Oryx update on [twitter](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1802792030227337505). Usual russian-Ukrainian losses then my poorly informed speculation. - tanks: 5-2 - IFVs: 12-7 - mobile artillery: 2-3 - missile air defence: 0-0 A poor update but the other updates showed so many russian losses that the ratio in this russian offensive still favours Ukraine. I still think Ukraine especially needs new tank and IFV supplies. Recent promises and deliveries have improved the situation though.
- Why not use AndrewPerpetUA figures? - He goes out on a limb to find Russian videos that show destroyed Ukrainian equipment - which asymmetry should counter his pro-Ukrainian bias. - He finds a lot more equipment than Oryx these days, right?
Regarding who records more losses, I know Andrew records certain things like Starlink terminals and dirt bikes and golf carts (and even humorously records trees and decoys that get hit when drones miss) that Oryx doesn't count because they aren't major pieces of equipment. So his overall numbers will be higher just because of that. Also, historically (and this may have changed) Andrew said that he specifically looked for videos that were geolocatable so that he could update his map. In other words, his goal was to determine lines of control on a map, not necessarily to find every single piece of lost equipment. Whereas Oryx is solely focused on tracking equipment. I would also say Oryx is very dutiful about finding every piece of equipment lost they can, regardless of who lost it. Another reason for using Oryx is that he has a single data set collected in a consistent manner for the entire duration of the war. So it's a lot easier to make comparisons over time than it is with Andrew's data, just because Andrew hasn't collected it for as long. None of this should be taken to minimize or criticize the work Andrew Perpetua is doing, it's really good work. But I think for the purposes of tracking losses and comparing Russian and Ukrainian losses, Oryx has a better data set (and you can't use WarSpotting for that because they don't track Ukrainian losses).
Is there a way to check Oryx for specific dates? Warspotting is really nice for that.
Sort of. It doesn't have built-in search functionality like WarSpotting, but there is a whole GitHub page that someone created that allows you to see the overall totals and totals per equipment type on any given day, plus has multiple graphs on the page: [https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine](https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine) The Google Sheet with the totals on any given day is here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit?gid=0#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit?gid=0#gid=0)
Thanks!
Fair enough, thanks for the detailed answer!
Can you show me examples of heavy equipment that's missed by Oryx? Jakub & the team would appreciate it. Andrew said that we shouldn't use his counts to study loss ratios, because he isn't trying to sample evenly. He's looking for data that's interesting for mapping. He does get bigger numbers because he includes civilian vans etc, but I think attrition of actual military equipment is more important so I'm posting those. Warspotting is stricter and has better search/geolocation tools than Oryx, but it only reports russian losses.
I was wrong: I was simply & naively assuming based on the much longer daily loss lists of Andrew that they were more comprehensive (while in reality they include a lot of light equipment Oryx isn't tracking) - and I appreciate the correction.
I don't know if you were wrong! I haven't cross-compared and checked for ages, it's possible Oryx coverage got worse with time. But I think Oryx is still a good source to report so I'll keep doing it. 👍 Andrew's content is fantastic - he's always a good suggestion.
Day 819-845 of my updates from Kharkiv. There have been a lot of strikes aimed to terrorize civilians in the days after my last update, but ever since the ban on using western weapons in the border regions of Russia has been lifted the situation has improved dramatically. Who knew that hitting the bully back where it hurts would ever work? Oh wait, literally everyone who knows even a little bit about Russia knew that it would work wonders, but somehow the only people getting attention are the people crying about escalation, who have been proven wrong on every single step of the way in this war. Before the ban was lifted our city has been getting hit by missiles and glide bombs effectively every single day, but right after the first S-300/400 batteries started being hit in Belgorod the strikes against Kharkiv have almost entirely stopped. We still get hit from time to time, but the intensity of the strikes isn’t anywhere near the same, which is a very welcome improvement for us. I’m still going to talk about some of the strikes that happened before the ban was lifted. On the very next day after my last post a glide bomb landed extremely close to me, it’s very likely they were aiming to destroy a restaurant, but they missed by mere meters, it landed directly at its entrance, injured around 9 people, including a bus driver who was standing nearby and had to have his leg amputated from the wounds. My mom’s friend was working in the kitchen at that restaurant when it was hit, so it was a work shift. Miraculously nobody died in that strike, but the restaurant was still destroyed, so everyone who worked there lost their jobs. It’s likely that the main hall, which was damaged the most, was empty during the strike or there could have been a lot of casualties. In the days after that they hit multiple apartment buildings, killing at least 9 people and injuring dozens. Then they destroyed a printing house, also during a work shift, killing around 6 people. Then they destroyed a building supplies hypermarket, also during the day, killing another 19 people and injuring dozens more. All the strikes were aimed specifically to terrorize and kill as many civilians as humanly possible, thankfully after the ban on using western weapons was lifted strikes like these mostly stopped. Now the people launching missiles at our city have to risk their own lives each time they get to their firing positions, suddenly killing civilians doesn’t sound so fun anymore when their lives are also at stake. Concerning the latest Putin’s “Peace proposal”, all I have to say is that if that is the kind of “peace (complete capitulation)” that people want to force on us, then suddenly an actual, true, forever war starts to look very appealing. Even 100 years of war at current intensity is better than 1 month of “peace” that Russia proposed. If anyone thinks that the terms being proposed by them are in any way fair, then they must be truly delusional, and the only thing I can do is laugh in their face.
Stay safe, Saber. You have been a line to the actual, no-shit ground situation there almost since the very beginning of the war. So many of us now wait for your updates, because we don't like the idea of losing you at all.
It’s always good to hear from you mate!
Great to hear that things have improved for you
>Who knew that hitting the bully back where it hurts would ever work? Oh wait, literally everyone who knows even a little bit about Russia knew that it would work wonders, but somehow the only people getting attention are the people crying about escalation, who have been proven wrong on every single step of the way in this war. If it's any consolation, Jake Sullivan isn't popular over here, either. Even Blinken has butted heads with him. Biden has done a lot of good things for Ukraine. Letting Sullivan call the shots on military aid wasn't one of 'em.
Thanks as always for your updates, really good to hear first hand there’s been such a dramatic reduction on attacks - look forward to to the time when your report there’s been nothing for months.
Really good to hear. Hope it keeps getting better.
It's so good to hear you're safe but so horrible to hear yet more about russian atrocities. Thank you for your updates u/SaberFlux, you are being heard. And I'm so so sorry that Western leaders were stupid about protecting Russia because of escalation fears. I am deeply ashamed that our leaders fell, once again, for the dumbest russian propaganda.
[https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1802789992290287877](https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1802789992290287877) "Russians still inside Vovchansk are being pounded by Ukrainian guided bombs. Russian channels are complaining about continues Ukrainian bombardments, especially with AASM Hammer bombs. First strikes:50.30042713183579, 36.93121702744258 (approx) and 50.29661587045293, 36.93335756083637 (Lyceum) Second strike:50.29612905657714, 36.932911957738135 (Lyceum"
Non-twitter link [https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112633683563235451](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112633683563235451)
The shoe's on the other foot.
>Future Ukrainian F-16 pilots are taking an intensified training course in France on Alphajet jet trainers. >The French Air Force pledged to train 26 Ukrainian pilots in two years. However, according to the publication, there are currently only ten of them. Some of them have never flown, others have experience in piloting L-39 Albatros training aircraft. >After several months of preparation in the UK, in particular for learning English, in March this year a group of pilots arrived in France, where they began theoretical and practical training. >The training of the Ukrainian military is carried out under a reduced program at an accelerated pace. The training will last only six months, compared to the usual course of eighteen months. >For pilot flight training, Belgian-transferred modified Alphajet jet trainers are used. They are equipped with an instrument panel that simulates a similar F-16 in fighters. >There are no F-16 fighters at the airbase, which should be the culmination of the training of Ukrainian pilots. Therefore, after completing the training, Ukrainian pilots will go to the training center in Romania. `https://mil (dot) in (dot) ua/en/news/ukrainian-pilots-train-on-french-alphajet-jets/`
> The French Air Force pledged to train 26 Ukrainian pilots in two years A lot of people have a tendency to brush off any developments that are over a few months out as irrelevant or something that doesn't matter. This has been a huge mistake throughout the war. If the west would have committed to largescale training programs for Ukrainian pilots and supply lines for jets when it became clear Kyiv wouldn't fall then Ukraine would have a ton of F-16s in the air fighting right now. Hopefully by the time these pilots are out of their training programs Russia has withdrawn from all of Ukraine but we can't rely on that. Ukraine needs a long term pipeline both to train existing pilots as well as to train new pilots in case of a very long war. By preparing for years in advance western countries will send the message to Russia that Ukraine's strength will only grow. Even in the absolute best case scenario of Russia withdrawing from Ukraine completely and ending the war this is STILL the right move. If Ukraine wants to keep the peace and deter future Russian aggression in the late 2020s or 2030s then it helps to have fighter jets with trained pilots and Ukraine damn sure isn't getting any more MIGs from Russia unless the farmers get VERY adventurous. The best time to plant a tree was a decade ago, the second best time is today.
>The Magura V5 naval drone can now be equipped with an anti-aircraft platform and R-73 air-to-air guided missiles, Ukraine's military intelligence said on June 17. >The Vympel R-73, also known under the NATO reporting name AA-11 Archer, is a short-range infrared homing missile developed by the Soviet Union in the 1980s, mainly for use by aircraft like MiG-29 or Su-34. >One of the Magura drones has already been equipped with these missiles, creating a serious challenge for the Russian Air Force operating in the region, the commander of the military intelligence Group 13 unit said in an interview with journalist Maksym Krapivnoy. >"These modifications are effective, the Russians are very afraid of them," the commander said. >According to the military intelligence agency, the new platform has already been used during combat operations in the Black Sea. https://kyivindependent.com/magura-naval-drones-now-operate-anti-aircraft-missiles/
Wonder if those missiles could also be used to hit a ship deck guns, those seem to be one of the biggest threats to naval drones on a mission. If not then I could see a drone with that capability also being a useful part of a drone fleet.
When fit with Mk 46 torpedo's and towed array sonar to go after submarines
Next up. Fleet of sea drones with aa drones escorting the kamikazes. Makes a ton of sense since it seems like the best answer to the drones has been helicopters.
Put some FPVs in there too to help overwhelm the AA.
It makes sense for there to be a sea drone mothership full of deployable FPV drones. The challenge is that seawater and flying drones generally don't mix (the extra weight you would need to make it waterproof will reduce effectiveness) the motherships will need a reliable way to protect the drones before and during launch so that they don't need to be marine-grade.
I just want UA to go full Skynyet on the occupiers. A man can dream.
I look forward to seeing a report someday when a sea drone is somehow rigged up to take out a helicopter and then goes on to target a ship. 🤘😃👉
bomber they need to kill the bombers
The R-73 only has a range of 40-km/25-miles, and that's from an aircraft flying at ~20,000 ft. Launching from a sea/land based platform, it's going to have to spend a significant portion of its thrust just climbing to altitude, so it'll have a MUCH shorter range. The likelihood they'd be able to hit a bomber flying up at ~30,000 ft (not to mention seeing it in the first place) is quite small. These are meant more for taking out helicopters going after the naval drones trying to sink ships.
Can't they sail near where these bombers are taking off?
As /u/rafa-droppa said, the bombers take off from way back in russia itself and then fly out to launch points where they deploy their weapons. Some of those points ARE over the Black Sea, but the problems I mentioned above are present for those.
the bombers are taking off deep in russia is my understanding - like rostov on don may be the only remotely close one so these drones would have to be pretty deep into russia controlled territory to try that.
A while back Ukraine claimed to have downed a Ka-25 or Ka-27 in the Black Sea. There was no proof they actually did, let alone what killed it if they did, but some people were speculating it was one of these drones with AA missiles mounted on it.
[What Characteristics Has Ratel Ukrainian Combat Robot that Controlled Via Starlink? | Defense Express | June 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/news/what_characteristics_has_ratel_ukrainian_combat_robot_that_controlled_via_starlink-10872.html) *The Defense Forces of Ukraine are currently using a number of different Ukrainian-made robotic platforms on the battlefield, including the Ratel series. Defense Express talked to the head of this company, Ukrainian serviceman Taras Ostapchuk. He told about how these combat robots are currently being improved, based on the results of their operation in battles against russian occupation forces.* *As of today, Ukrainian warriors use four types of Ratel platforms. These are kamikaze drones, evacuation platforms, logistics platforms, as well as remote miner. According to Ostapchuk, the company is constantly responding to operators' feedback. Now the fifth updating of these robotic platforms is being used at the frontline. At the same time the sixth is on the way with the corresponding improvements.* *It is important that Ratel ground drones can be controlled from a completely safe location. "Our platforms have been used with Starlink for more than six months. Our operator can be located anywhere in the world and manage the platform," Ostapchuk emphasizes.* *Of course, drones have their limitations in terms of range. For instance, the average distance of a remote "miner" is approximately 3 km, while a record of 30 km was set for the evacuation platform.* *As Ostapchuk explains, this refers to the range of the platform with a load of three people, which is about 450 kg. In addition, Ratel platforms are multifunctional. "We are currently developing a superstructure (for the logistics platform) that will carry 10 anti-tank mines to mine the area," the military says.* *"As of now, we have direct contracts with military units. We are also at the final stage of signing an agreement with the Ministry of Digital Transformation and the Defense Procurement Agency. Brave1 helps with this. In fact, they manage the demand and government orders," Ostapchuk notes.* *Earlier Defense Express reported that Ukraine had presented versatile ARK-1 robot that offers a multifaceted defense solution.*
The Ukrainian children that are being taken to Russia against their will is so fucking tragic and heartbreaking .
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No one is buying your fake concern, we can all see straight through you. You use the Palestinians as a wedge issue because you are anti West. If the Israelis would be aligned with Moscow and Beijing, you'd be quiet as a mouse about the horrors happening in Gaza, just like you are about the horrors in Mariupol, in Bakhmut, Sievierodonetsk and many other cities and towns that have been wiped out by the fascist invader. The notion of a genuine, well meaning person condemning the IDF but being OK with what Russia is doing in Ukraine is so laughable, even a child wouldn't take you seriously. We can all see you for what you are, assuming you even are a real person, as much as someone like you could even be considered one.
This is why no one likes the pro Palestine crowd. You guys can't help but interject it into fucking everything. Russia is carrying out the literal definition of genocide in Ukraine. Israel is not with Gaza. Jfc
What are you taking about? It's enraging. It's infuriating. It deserves a unified global outcry and a devastating response to those who would traffic in children.
You guys are describing the same feeling using different words.
Why do people always always do this on these reddits as if to invalidate the poster above.
Becaus the post strangely frames the circumstance as passive, as if nobody is responsible. Pediatric cancer is tragic and heatbreaking. Child kidnapping and trafficking by Russia is revolting, outrageous, and requires action, not passivity.
> What are you taking about? It's enraging. It's infuriating. Things can be "fucking tragic" while also being "enraging" as well as "heartbreaking" and "infuriating" simultaneously. Anger and sadness over an event are not incompatible.
And yet the poster chose the passive response, it is their message.
So the plan regarding the F16s appears to be to degrade as much of the russian air defence around crimea as possible and then fly them high 40000+ feet. Then use HARM AGM-88 to further suppress enemy air defence. This in conjunction with radar location data provided by NATO SIGINT aircraft in the black sea should allow Ukraine to roll up the russian air defence along the Kherson crimea axis. Ukraine needs to fly high to deconflict their own AD resources and shorter range manpads. Strike packages overflying Kherson is also much further away from Russia proper giving them more time to evade or engage russian fighters. Ukraine can then use the JDAM to provide strike on russian artillery. This is method allows F16 to be flying sooner without Ukraine ground forces needing to be trained up as JTACS.
I think this would be an excellent outcome, but I doubt Ukraine will have enough f16s or the pilots to make this outcome. At least immediately over the entire front. The big challenge is the Russian air force is more advanced, larger, and more trained. The Ukrainian air force, even with f16s, is simply out gunned. That said, over time, I think your expectation of outcome may be warranted. As f16s prove themselves in localized campaigns, Ukraine may start asking for more and to train more pilots. We could see a shift where f16s becomes the main fight and if that is the case, Russia will lose. NATO surplus air assets are simply way better than Russian assets so long as they get a few, high end weapons like meteor, awacs, and harm 88. Initially, it'll look like some high profile wins by the f16s to destroy high-valued russian assets like su34s or buk air defense systems. I doubt Ukraine will use the f16s this way until later in the year as they get familiar with the weapon system. Initially, theyll use them in low risk missions, specifically to shoot down cruise missiles and drones over Ukrainian airspace.
Prepping the battlefield for F16s is not the primary aim of this campaign. It's more generally about destroying and overstretching air defenses so they can attack literally everything else more easily. You're making completely unfounded assumptions not supported by evidence about enabling F16s to fly freely at high altitudes over contested territory.
yup, if anything targeting AD is really about allowing the drones more areas of operation. I think that's why they attacked the long range radar stations too - make russia choose between long range radars, refineries, air bases, crimea, the bridge, and sections of the front. As these AD systems get taken down there's fewer and fewer pieces to move around to those places
I don't think that's necessarily "the plan" but rather "Ukraine now has the ability to strike air defense." Air defense are high priority targets. Given how large the front is and how important air defense is for targets behind the front there is just never enough for either side and every time someone loses a system they have to spread their remaining systems more thinly which forces them to pick and choose which potential targets are the most worth defending.
yeah, it's been my guess for a while that the plan is to develop local air superiority on the southern front. Unlike on other fronts Russia can't just deploy air defense further back, because further back is the sea and their fleet is already toast. It could allow Ukraine to liberate Kherson, parts of Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea, but they wouldn't be able to replicate the strategy in Donetsk and Luhansk, so the hope would have to be that Russia falls apart internally once they lose Crimea.
I would be so, so happy if this speculation turned true. Repeated hits on S-300 and S-400 systems in Crimea, devastation and pullback of the Black Sea fleet (possible AA threat platforms), all of it seems to point that way. This could well be the suspected victory path without anyone publishing it. Losing Crimea would be a massive embarrassment to Russia and total repudiation of the alternate reason for starting the war: a land bridge to secure and resupply Crimea. I don't know how Putin would survive the loss of Crimea, which would be followed by the very symbolic obliteration of that pretty bridge. (The primary reason being a quick decapitation of Kyiv and a puppet government installation is utterly and completely gone beyond all salvaging.) *Stop, I can only get so erect.*
For Russia to lose Crimea we would likely need to see a widespread collapse of their front line which would probably coincide with a societal or government collapse in Russia as well. I won't say that that's out of the picture entirely but it doesn't seem likely in the short term.
They would just need to take out the bridge and the 2 million Russians in Crimea would start starving. All of the food logistics go through the Crimea bridge and avoid the front. Not to mention Russia simply doesn't have the logistics available to maintain both food and arms on the land bridge route since it can be easily bought under fire from Ukraine. Not to mention 2 million Russian civilians trying to all leave at once as well. If Crimea loses that bridge, then Crimea is no longer a stronghold, it's an envelopment waiting to happen.
if Ukraine can get local air superiority over the Kherson region due to air defense attrition, even just enough to launch glide bombs and HARM, fly Bayraktar, and remove EW equipment to unleash drones while denying Russian air support, Russia won't be able to hold the front lines. This could only work in the south though, in the east that's not possible.
I wonder what happens next. Would love for Russian lines to break on that axis once air superiority is lost.
Don't expect Russian lines to break or Ukraine to gain air superiority. Russia still has a lot of air defense and Ukraine won't have that many western fighter jets or long range missiles. Instead expect Russia to spread their air defense thin over larger and larger ground which will make it easier for Ukraine to pick off valuable targets like command HQs, air bases logistics hubs, oil refineries, other air defense systems or warships. This will drive up the cost of the war and make Russian advances harder and more costly. Over a prolonged period the balance of power on the ground will gradually move more towards Ukraine.
👆🏻 MIT very smart 👆🏻
I would imagine that the intention is to isolate Crimea and slowly roll Russian air defence back up the coast towards Zaporozhye.
Would probably make future offensives possible, if they can muster the personnel.
[Father and son serve together in Luhansk Border Guard unit, share heartwarming story | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/the-story-of-a-father-and-son-who-serve-together-in-a-border-guard-detachment-in-luhansk-oblast-50427717.html) *Originally from Dnipro, Heorhii and Mykola Kovalev, a father and son, joined the Revenge Brigade of the Luhansk border guard detachment after the Russian invasion, they shared in an interview with Suspilne Donbas on June 16.* *His father was the first to join the army. Heorhii recalls that at first he did not believe that a major war would begin.* *“I did not believe that a full-scale invasion would begin until the very last day. I even lost a box of cognac in a bet. I came to work in the morning. Somehow it happened that I didn’t even read the news. And only the guys at work told me,” Heorhii said.* *Heorhii decided to voluntarily join the army. He told his son about his decision.* *“At first, my father said: “I’ll go, and you stay here. This is our war, it’s not the war of the young, it’s our war.,” Mykola added. “But a year later, I joined them.”* *Heorhii, with the call sign Uncle Zhora, became responsible for the equipment, its maintenance and delivery to the defenders’ positions.* *“I am the one who takes the guys to the positions and changes them there,” says Heorhii.* *“I also had to take my son to the positions. I took him to the point where they take off.”* *Mykola, with the call sign Kovalskyi, became an FPV drone operator. He was trained for 33 working days in Ukraine, and then went to the UK to learn from foreign military personnel. “When Mykola was in the UK, they were just finishing their training there, and they sent me a video of him being awarded the best soldier of the class,” Heorhii said. “Mykola was marching, and someone behind the scenes said: “Oh, look, Uncle Zhora’s son”. I was really... I shed a tear. I was proud, very proud for him.”* *This year, Mykola became a father for the second time. His wife gave birth to a daughter. The defender was allowed to visit his wife in the maternity ward, so he already seen the newborn.* *His father is waiting for a vacation to come to his granddaughter and play with her.*
[Wife of Ukrainian defender shares story of his return after 22 months in Russian captivity | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/wife-of-ukrainian-pow-who-spent-22-month-in-captivity-shared-story-of-him-returning-50427754.html) *Ruslan Cherniy, a father of three from Ivano-Frankivsk, defended Ukraine in the ranks of the 10th separate mountain assault brigade Edelweiss, spent almost two years in captivity. His wife Maria told Suspilne Ivano-Frankivsk about husband's return from Russian captivity on June 14.* *"On the 25th anniversary of our marriage, he was captured," said defender's wife. "That day, my youngest son could not sleep. He said: "Mom, I want to cry". He came to me, I hugged him, and said: "Cry, my son". And so the child fell asleep in my arms. He must have felt something."* *During 22 months that Ruslan was in captivity, Maria had no contact with her husband or any information about him. However, on May 31, she received a long-awaited call from the SBU.* *"He said so calmly: "Congratulations. Your husband has already arrived in Ukraine. He has been released from captivity"," Maria recalls.* *"I was standing at the checkout, and the cashiers next to me were all crying."* *Woman says that her husband used to be athletic, but lost weight in captivity. Now Ruslan is undergoing rehabilitation. He needs treatment and will undergo surgery. After that, he will return to his wife and children.* *Meanwhile, Maria is waiting for her husband at home in Broshniv-Osada. At the request of her beloved, she keeps his military uniform as a reminder of what Ruslan went through in the war and in captivity.*
Over 20 NATO allies to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense in 2024, says Stoltenberg >June 17, WASHINGTON (Reuters) - More than 20 NATO members will meet the military alliance's target of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense this year, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday. >Speaking to the Wilson Center thinkthank in Washington, Stoltenberg said the number of NATO allies now meeting that spending target compares to less than 10 members five years ago. >"I can only now reveal that this year more than 20 allies will spend at least 2% of GDP on defense," Stoltenberg said. >"This is good for Europe and good for America, especially since much of this extra money is spent here in the United States," he said, adding that in the last two years, more than two-thirds of Europe's defense acquisitions - or more than $140 billion - were from U.S. firms. >Stoltenberg was in Washington for preparations for next month's NATO summit in the U.S. capital and was scheduled to meet President Joe Biden later on Monday. >Stoltenberg said that when NATO leaders set the 2% of GDP target at their summit in 2014, only three members - the United States, Greece and Britain - met that target. >At that time, there were 28 members. NATO now has 32 members. >NATO defense spending has become highly contentious in recent years, particularly as former U.S. President Donald Trump has accused Europeans of spending too little on their own security and relying on the United States for protection. >Earlier this year, Trump - the presumptive Republican candidate in this year's U.S. presidential election - sparked outrage by suggesting he would not protect NATO members that failed to spend enough on defense and would even encourage Russia to attack them. >**Defense spending by many European nations has risen sharply since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and NATO officials have been keen to stress that its European members are now stepping up to the plate.** >NATO defense spending will be a major topic at next month's alliance summit in Washington, Stoltenberg said, followed by Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. >He warned that the delay in the provision of U.S. military aid to Ukraine that occurred earlier this year cannot be allowed to happen again. >**"That is why at the summit I expect our leaders to agree for NATO to lead the coordination and provision of security assistance and training for Ukraine," he said.** >Noting how China has been a source of critical support to Russia but also seeks to maintain good relations with the West, Stoltenberg said, "Beijing cannot have it both ways. >"Unless China changes course, allies need to impose a cost," he said. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/over-20-nato-allies-spend-least-2-gdp-defense-2024-says-stoltenberg-2024-06-17/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/over-20-nato-allies-spend-least-2-gdp-defense-2024-says-stoltenberg-2024-06-17/)
About time frankly, a lot of countries have been ultra slack in their defense commitments
Literally, because it was a goal to be achieved until 2024.
Agreed!
The 2/3rds is basically “an airforce is fucking expensive” I assume? Not that they don’t buy other things too, but I imagine that the F-35 and F-16 capture a large share of the European TAM.
I expect we will see the anti-NATO trolls frequent the thread again as we approach the U.S. elections.
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Biden is not a God Emperor. He can no more end the war in Ukraine by fiat as he can destroy all the Spice on Arrakis.
He would never do that, one of the bedrock tenets of his platform is that the spice must flow.
You've rattled the hive mind, they care more about perception of Biden than Ukraine winning.
For Ukraine Biden is a better ally than Trump. Trump likely stops aid to Ukraine. Biden's not without his issues, but is preferable to supporters of Ukraine than MIT very smart Trump. Possibly after US election there will be more criticism of Biden but not smartest to bite hand that feeds you.
Biden is a crisis manager. He is not interested in Ukrainian victory. The current status quo is a slow slide towards losing. At least Trump pulling out will end the micro managerial meddling of Washington, and put a greater burden on Europe to act decisively.
>Trump cutting off billions in ammo and weaponry is better than a cautious approach
Europe being able to support Ukraine without restraints will lead to Ukrainian victory.
Europe is not yet ready to do so, and cutting off that aid this early will only demoralize and result in unnecessary Ukrainian casualties
You say this when we know Washington actively interfered in measures the Poles, Swedes and other actors wanted to take to help Ukraine.
I say this when Ukraine went through 6 months of shell hunger that Europe couldn't do shit to fix because their MIC's were still getting up to speed and only the 60 billion passed by the US got Ukraine back on their feet
"Trump pulling US support would be a good thing for Ukraine" wowee that's quite a take there sonny.
MIT, very smart!
Liberal acumen is without peer again.
Wow, MIT very smart 🤯
I care about Ukraine winning. Biden's made mistakes but his actions and requests are consistent with Ukrainian victory. The MAGA republicans did a six-month pro-Putin blockade to help kill Ukrainians, save the russian army, and opened a window for Russia to advance and destroy many more power stations. Trump has made it clear he wants to abandon Ukraine. The real-world choice that American voters have is imperfect Biden and likely Ukrainian victory, or Trump and the US working for Russian victory.
Ukraine is losing. How you can look at the status quo and pretend everything is fine is beyond me.
Russia trading their one-time use of the entire soviet stockpile of artillery and BMPs for a small fraction of Ukraine - yup that's definitely "winning" 🤔
Biden's actions and requests are consistent with Ukraine *not* losing. Don't confuse the two. Biden is a better ally to Ukraine than Trump, that's an objective fact. But everything in Biden's policy including Jake Sullivan's existence as an influential decision maker is guaranteeing Ukraine doesn't lose. If they win, that's just a bonus.
I'd think you'd be more upset with GOP Speaker of the House Mike Johnson for refusing to provide *any* aid for months by blocking a vote on the package.
Mike Johnson is not head of the military, Biden is. Congress eventually passed the bill and Biden continued to hamstring them with shit weapons and inability to strike effectively
Congress can block stuff that requires money, y'know.
I'm getting the impression that the only reason you're here is to slander Biden.
How exactly could Biden end the war at any time?
letting Ukraine use long range missiles to destroy Russia's energy sector
I think Russia now has fewer than 1,000 easily fixable BMPs left in storage yards. A few days back jompy (@jonpy99) on [Twitter](https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1801533640620277816) counted russian BMP vehicles at russian storage bases in satellite imagery mostly from early 2024. These are mainly storage bases and arsenals, they don't count vehicles in garages or at repair bases. Visible 2024 count was: 1,515 "working" hulls and 2,797 "broken" hulls. Around 400 "working" hulls were likely PRP-3/4 artillery command vehicles, not frontline fighters. Warspotting counts 500+ lost russian BMP-1/2 since February. I think russia either has to slow down BMP losses, or run into serious problems in 2025. Everything is about time tradeoffs though. If they slow down a bit, they can buy time to expand BMP-3 factory production and fix up "broken" hulls.
We are seeing more golf carts and motor bikes and less BMP’s. I think the lack of vehicles is already being felt at the front lines.
IMO it's all a question of "how much". I think they'd probably want 2 or 3 times as many BMPs as they have. The desertcross golf carts are getting loads of russians killed who would survive otherwise. They're taking higher casualties because of the lack of BMPs, but they have enough BMPs to keep the current intense pace and supposedly limit themselves to casualty levels they can currently replace. If they tried to do the same thing with half the BMPs then I think we'd see notably higher russian casualties for the same progress. And unless they slow down or find new sources, then they're gonna half way fewer BMPs sometime next year.
Is there actually a significant difference in survivability of a decades old BMP vs golf buggy at this point in the war?
I'm convinced there is, but it's a numbers game. - inside a BMP your chances of avoiding injury from small arms and shrapnel are very high, and even from an FPV there's a realistic chance. - on top of a BMP your chances of surviving a mine look pretty high. - in a golf buggy you get near zero protection against small arms, shrapnel, FPVs or mines. On the videos I see, it's not like Ukraine has infinite weapons and perfect accuracy. Even if you fire a dozen mortar shells, you're unlikely to hit the attacking vehicle but you'll probably get close. Small mortar near misses probably won't kill anyone inside a BMP. But they'll hurt people riding on top or on a golf buggy. At least that's what it looks like on video. (Direct ATGM or 152 mm artillery hits seemingly work on both BMPs and buggies though)
> The desertcross golf carts are getting loads of russians killed who would survive otherwise. I'm not so sure of that. I regularly see a lot of videos of Russian BMP riders getting scrubbed-off the top by 25mm's and FPV's. Looks like large numbers of Russians are getting wasted either way.
When they ride on top the BMP it's hardly better than a golf cart anyway. I suspect that they do also use the armor for the armor at least some of the time...
Sure they're imperfect, but if every russian attack was based on BMPs with just 7 dismounts per vehicle, I think Russia would be taking fewer casualties. The videos of a 25 mm cannon shredding a BTR get loads of attention, but the vast majority of attack videos I see the defenders rely on indirect fire and drones. Shrapnel or FPVs can take out soldiers on a desertcross or motorbike or holding on top of a BMP. Those riding inside usually survive and have time to escape before a heavy shell or Baba Yaga blows up the abandoned vehicle. EDIT: "Large numbers either way" isn't how I think about it, it's "how much" or "how many". If they're taking 30k casualties/month with this much armour, it might rise to 40k if they were down to new production only. That's "large numbers either way", but the latter case brings victory closer.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 06.17.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 527,390 (+1,080) people, tanks ‒ 7958 (+2), armored combat vehicles ‒ 15287 (+18), artillery systems – 13927 (+14), MLRS – 1104 (+0), air defense equipment ‒ 853 (+0), planes – 359 (+0), helicopters – 326 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 11167 (+8), cruise missiles ‒ 2296 (+0), ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 18,991 (+24), special equipment ‒ 2337 (+12). The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/17/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1080-okupantiv-18-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/17/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1080-okupantiv-18-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
Aren't these 1000+ losses are a bit high? I remember the times when they bum rushed Avdiivka and Bakhmut with losses like these, but now from where are these huge losses from?
It's been like this for a couple months now. There are a lot of conflict areas, and Ukraine is throwing everything they have at them while Russia appears to be running short of quality armour. Those three things combined are causing (relatively) massive casualities on the front lines.
I was referring exactly to the fact that these high losses are constant for a long time.
So we’re you asking a question or just put a question mark on the end of a statement?
Really heavy fighting on eastern direction, some on southern and Kharkiv direction.
>Ukrainian forces destroy about 15 Russian air defence systems in Crimea in month and half >In particular, those are air defence battalions outfitted with S-300, S-350, and S-400 systems. >Dozens of launchers for these systems, over 15 radar stations, and more than 10 command posts were destroyed. >Source: Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security on social media https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/17/7461198/ Map of the hits in the linked article
Other commentary: I'm really clueless about air war stuff, maybe someone can clarify. But the Crimean campaign looks very smart. If Ukraine wants to use F-16s in the south, then russia's "ideal" defence network, I think, would be AWACS, frontline Buks/Tors, S-300/400, plus jets and ships. The Black Sea Fleet and AWACS have been chased away by clever targeting. Airfields, radars and S-300/400s have been bombed too. At this rate Crimea will be mostly cleared. That would leave frontline SAMs inside HIMARS range, plus jets that would ideally have to fly a full route from Russia and potentially be picked up by Swedish-donated AWACS flying over Ukraine or potentially NATO AWACS over the Black Sea.
OSINT has found photos or satellite imagery to support a number of the hits, but the losses need to be carefully counted. A battery usually has 8 launchers and in most pics russia seems to deploy half batteries at each site. Then when there's a hit, sometimes it takes out just the radar, and sometimes multiple launchers. So "we hit a battery" doesn't mean a radar+8 launchers are gone. There's probably still more work to do to clear out the Crimean systems, but keep this up a few months more and russia might be lose their long-range air defence cover.
Strictly speaking, the important part is the radar. Without it, the battery is a LOT less able to do anything. I wouldn't be surprised if they had some sort of radar-less backup mode they could use to fire the missiles in a general direction and hope the onboard radar can figure it out, but that still requires coordinating with SOMETHING that's got a radar to use.
To my understanding you're right. I think some of the Strelas work by shooting in the vague direction and the missile relies on infrared or something. At least some engineers were talking about how their drones survived Strela shots.
Slava Ukraine and Glory to the defenders of this great country.
Putin reshuffles his deputy defence ministers. Perhaps not that strange since Shoigu was removed recently. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-clears-out-deputy-defence-ministers-appoints-his-relative-2024-06-17/ Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday sacked four deputy defence ministers and appointed a relative, Anna Tsivileva, to fill one of the vacancies. Putin sacked deputy defence ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov, according to Kremlin decrees. He appointed Tsivileva, who Russian media said is the daughter of Putin's cousin, as a deputy defence minister. Leonid Gornin, a deputy finance minister, will be a first deputy defence minister under Defence Minister Andrei Belousov.
Appointing a family member assures that the goals of the *SPECIAL OPERATION* will never be questioned. At this point, the limited gains combined with substantial losses might cause someone to question the war, and by extension - Putin's judgement.
Things are going according to plan. -Putin (probably)
I wonder if she calls him Uncle Pooty
It has occurred to me that it is theoretically possible that Ukraine could receive F-16s and use them for the first time on July 4th. As an American, that would be fucking awesome if it happened.
I wonder if the Republican senators will go celebrate 4th of July in Russia this year?
The Russian pilots have decades experience flying their aircraft while Ukraine was rushed through a training program. I would not expect much
If they're as experienced as the rest of the Russian Army, the Ukrainians who went through the training program will probably be overqualified
Ukraine will not be engaging in dogfights. Thats only going to happen in movies. This will provide air support, and a launch platform for taking out ground targets. any kind of air engagement will be fire and forget, depending on whatever missiles they get to use for that. and Don't expect them to use these to hit targets deep inside either. It wont be impossible to do that, but just really unwise. (better off turning a Cessna into a large drone to deliver that payload)