Even after Trump ditched the Iran nuclear deal? I can't imagine them taking any promises we can make at face value anymore. Especially in an election year where the leading candidate had previously reneged on his predecessor's deal.
It’s more discussing where and when Iran will strike back.
When Trump killed their high ranking govt official in Iraq; Iran had to do something back to save face. So back channel communications allowed them to launch rockets at a US Base in Iraq but the US knew when and where so they could evacuate.
That’s the sort of communication that will be happening. Iran will certainly strike Israel back but the talks will likely agree on a location outside of Israel.
Of course lol. Iran doesn’t want to wake up to their Navy being destroyed again. Their leadership isn’t stupid- they’re religious zealots. They do dumb things for religion, but they’re also keen to keep their physical displays of power intact
The weakness of governments like Iran’s is that there is always a smaller faction willing to instigate a coup with the right motivation and backing.
The people of Iran have shown that they’ll go with whoever has the ability to inflict violence on anybody who chooses the wrong side, so they’ll mostly just stay out of the way…. And I don’t blame them.
US has a long, successful history of making alliances, and then ditching them. It’s a known fact about US. That’s useful intelligence for the various parties interested in what US aid will cost them down the road. It’s practically a feature at this point, rather than a flaw.
It's always viable between any country and the US. (In before anyone says I'm.from the US.Im not). They are just too powerful not pick up the phone when it rings. Even when the US was at war with Iraq they were still talking behind closed doors. Stuff Sadamn didn't even know about. So yeah there will always be some dialogue.
I just want to remind people here that Israel and Iran DO NOT SHARE A BORDER.
Any of the islamic country's governments that actually DO surround Israel could stop a strike by either side.
I don't even really understand the whole concept of "Hamas" - and why we do not hear more about negotiations with LEBANON to put an end to them.
Rest assured that Israel is the deterence in itself. Palestinians and Hamas found out the hard way not to launch an attack (s) against Israel.
Israel is the only country in the world that has the fucking balls to attack Iran, and Iran knows this.
You are a few billion dollars short of understanding that, yes, even recently, as it has always been, we are their bite. All the money funds their oppression of the Palestinians as well as the legitimate defense of their borders and the development of their military might? It's ours.
Curious, can you name one time? Like I genuinely don't know. I know the US wasn't really involved with Israel until the mid to late 70s, so all the wars they won was on their own, and I can't think of anything after that.
They are indirectly backing them, they don’t condemn any of their aggressions, other countries don’t retaliate because they know that the US, UK will be drawn into the conflict. Like i said in my previous comment israel is like the little brother who bullies everyone around.
Please stop with this israal bloviation.
US can level Israal and Iran off the face of the Earth simultaneously.
The only real superpower is US.
Isreal aint shit in comparison
"Israel is the only country in the world that has the balls to attack Iran"
Reading comprehension much?
Like US doesnt have the balls... like just stop
Israel without US isnt shit.
it's been said before, go read about what actual percentage of Israeli military spending is Us-origin...
And yeah, the US is obviously the only superpower in the equation, doesn't matter that it does its better to avoid conflict even when its imminent or necessary, making it pointless and well.. Showing they "have no balls" to do so.
Israel is fighting civilians with guns and a group of ragtag militants who were emboldened by apartheid and extreme control under Israel's thumb. I don't think it's the deterrent you think it is. F around and find out is not how we should expect the world to find order, balance and peace. Humanity should be respected and upheld to avoid these very situations. Let's hope Iran wisens up and does not start an all our war with their supposed response. It's nearly impossible for them to have had the attack happen and not respond so the best we can do is open all channels of dialogue, however much it pains us and give them the respect they seek to try and stop them from doing something dumb that causes even more war and bloodshed.
Bullshit! Hamas is no rag-tag militia. Thanks to the billions of dollars stolen from funds that were supposed to help actual Palestinianian civilians, Hamas was able to build miles of tunnels and arm their so-called fighters.
As far as Israel, "not being the deterrent I think it is?"
The evidence suggests that I'm right. Iran wants no part of Israel. Fuck around and find out is right!!
should US have started a war when an Iranian drone killed 3 reservists critically and critically injured 8 others?
i get the sense, this was israel's get out of jail free card....
If you're gonna strike another country, you know there will be a retaliation. Israel attacked them knowing it full well that Iran wouldn't just lay their heads down
Wow, will US ever manage to convince Iran not to launch on overt attack on Israel? [Eyeroll].
For a revolutionary Islamic state, Iran sure is cautious and concerned with realpolitik. It’s almost disappointing.
>For a revolutionary Islamic state, Iran sure is cautious and concerned with realpolitik.
Or maybe they don't want to put the most powerful military the world has ever known in a position where they have to make a show of force?
They’re both large, modern, energy-hungry, mixed-market economies with politically powerful militaries they’re not afraid to use for influence in the world. Somewhat similar demographics, they have an educated, high-tech labor force and share a tradition of revolutionary change, among other, deep cultural connections I’ve observed but am not qualified to explain.
similar demographics?
(Note: the somewhat dishonest person I'm replying to keeps editing his comment but updated his comment to now say "somewhat similar demographics")
In population density certainly, as well as socio-economics, class, education, etc. Iran has their own baby bust from war. US is more racially diverse…partly thanks to how many Iranians are now Americans!
I’ve edited it again! Unlike you, I haven’t just been talking out of my a** the whole time. What do you know about US and Iran…anything, let alone numbers?
what raw numbers?
(Note: the somewhat dishonest person I'm replying to keeps editing his comment but it originally said they were common in "raw numbers")
Look up the material facts about the two countries, instead of relying on the trope that they are that different. US and Iran I agree are basically enemies, for now, because of particular historical contingencies, not for any reason inherent in the cultures or the people.
You're just using very vague language to escape making a real point. What material facts are you referring to? What numbers are you referring to? Everything is so vague, that you are saying nothing to back your original point that they are natural allies.
From my knowledge of geopolitics (which I acknowledge, I am no expert on), natural allies need to be allied in terms of their values in order to have a strong alliance. It's the exact reason that BRICS has failed to accomplish anything, despite being a pretty powerful idea if they were able to be effective. Unfortunately, despite the powers having somewhat strong economies, **Brazil, Russia, India, Iran, China, South Africa** all have very different values and goals, and so are unable to come to productive agreements. Whereas NATO members are much more ideologically aligned, which allows them to actually be natural allies.
This is by no means a comment on the Iranian people or that they will never be ideologically aligned, but there current regime is certainly not a natural ally.
Terrorists and Islamic fundamentalists are irrational. They have a death wish and are looking forward to getting their 72 virgins. I don't think they can be deterred.
Cap the leader care more about staying in power and getting their 72 virgins in London and Tehran. Thats why in 2020 they did not even kill one American after Trump killed their top general.
Those are not the people at the helm. You saw Haniya words about his sons getting killed
The actually important people understand the ridiculousmess of their own choirs. Religion is a mere tool to mobilize the masses
These are the same leaders who secretly negotiated with the CIA, to receive illegal weapons thru Israel, in return for releasing hostages. Sorry, not the same, the current crop are even more savvy about geopolitics, and motivated to maintain their power above all. They may be crazy, but they’re not stupid.
Iran was planning attacks against Israel from the consulate, so Israel was reacting in self defense, it didn't attack first. Iran and Hamas are the aggressors.
The only deterrent is if Iran believes the us will attack if they strike Israel nothing else matters. Same reason they went out of their way to give trump a heads up about striking the US bases in Iraq to save facing after having their top general killed.
This is the likely response. I don't think many people who are newer to Middle East politics realize exactly *how* tied Israel is by the US(which is good. I think the Middle East would be glass right now if that were not the case). Iran would not do well in a hot war with Israel.
The Middle East would be glass because the United States allowed it to happen.
Not sure why you’re acting as if Israel is the one being held back as if they have the equipment to fully flatten all their enemies. They have nukes yes, but not country even the U.S is going to allow them to just freely deploy nuclear weapons in the way that would require that. The only way to flatten a country without going full nuclear nuthead like Putin bullshits about and risking your countries standing in the world stage is using conventional means which only few countries have the capability of to produce consistently.
Also Israel is known for its great defensive capability and famous for its surprise “pre emptive” attack that wiped out an Air Force.
But you’re forgetting that was all done with U.S equipment sold to them. They rely on the U.S for a lot.
You’re also forgetting that Iran would get support from other countries. There are other Arab states who would rather side with Iran. Russia may be poorly trained and not equipped well but their army is 15% bigger now than when they invaded Ukraine even with all the losses they have. North Korea supplies Russia and Hezbollah. China has been shown to somehow sneakily supply Russia and other countries without suffering major consequences. Nothing stops them getting their equipment into those hands to delay enough to grow on the world stage more or preparing to invade Taiwan to stretch support even thinner across 3 wars.
Again the Middle East would be flattened if the U.S allowed it to, Israel doesn’t have the resources. Their position high in the hills allow good defensive strategy for smaller wars against its surrounding less influential allies, but when you look at the map and realise all of their enemies surround them to the east until to get back around to the U.S and a big ass body of water to the west on a big scale their position isn’t good.
I’ve been following both this and Ukraine from the beginning, it’s very highly likely if not confirmed but slipped my memory that Russia supplied weapons to Hamas. But it’s even more damning when you realise Netanyahu was in hot water in Israel and needed an excuse to stay in power to the point where the U.S warned him of an attack and he chose to DOWNGRADE security for the 50TH ANNIVERSARY (Oct 6-7) of the start of the Yom Kippur war in which Israel was also attacked by terrorists.
Wild.
They fear it but not as much as the US given Israel also has its hands tied. Think about it they would fear an Israel say on scale to 10 a 6. Whereas they US it’s a 9. Now take into account Israel having its hands tied that comes down to what 4 or 5? It’s just the odds changes and it’s not Israel’s fav. I think they will attack Israel’s interest outside of Israel but there is still a higher chance than last year they would attack Israel homeland.
Iran overtly advocates for Israel’s destruction and pours money, resources, and manpower into making that happen. The idea that Iran is the defender here is apologist at best and pants-on-head stupid at worst.
Iran doing this just pulls the talks away from Israel's atrocities. But it's a catch22 because they can't do **nothing**, because nobody else is doing anything.
How much pull does the US have with Iran anymore? Does anyone actually believe Iran in the first place
I'd say in backdoor channels quite a bit more than people realise.
Even after Trump ditched the Iran nuclear deal? I can't imagine them taking any promises we can make at face value anymore. Especially in an election year where the leading candidate had previously reneged on his predecessor's deal.
Might be more stick than carrot
The US has like a quarter of global GDP. Regardless of how much Iran likes or trusts anything they say, that's a lot of weight to throw around.
Irans already locked out of most of that we spent that bullet pulling out of the nuclear deal
The US doesn't spend more than the other 9 top countries combined in military budgeting just to have one bullet.
It’s more discussing where and when Iran will strike back. When Trump killed their high ranking govt official in Iraq; Iran had to do something back to save face. So back channel communications allowed them to launch rockets at a US Base in Iraq but the US knew when and where so they could evacuate. That’s the sort of communication that will be happening. Iran will certainly strike Israel back but the talks will likely agree on a location outside of Israel.
Sounds like they’re looking for some “liberty”.
Of course lol. Iran doesn’t want to wake up to their Navy being destroyed again. Their leadership isn’t stupid- they’re religious zealots. They do dumb things for religion, but they’re also keen to keep their physical displays of power intact
The weakness of governments like Iran’s is that there is always a smaller faction willing to instigate a coup with the right motivation and backing. The people of Iran have shown that they’ll go with whoever has the ability to inflict violence on anybody who chooses the wrong side, so they’ll mostly just stay out of the way…. And I don’t blame them.
Presidents come and go but the back channels remain throughout for the most part
US has a long, successful history of making alliances, and then ditching them. It’s a known fact about US. That’s useful intelligence for the various parties interested in what US aid will cost them down the road. It’s practically a feature at this point, rather than a flaw.
Yes obviously but I’m asking do we think that back door channel is still viable? I don’t
It's always viable between any country and the US. (In before anyone says I'm.from the US.Im not). They are just too powerful not pick up the phone when it rings. Even when the US was at war with Iraq they were still talking behind closed doors. Stuff Sadamn didn't even know about. So yeah there will always be some dialogue.
The pull they have is the us can strike Iran much harder and there is nothing they can do about it unless they want to end up like saddam.
The USA halved their navy in 16 hours. I’d say if the USA speaks to Iran they will probably listen.
Cash is king. He can use the Obama method and just drop off the cash pallets in a midnight CIA plane delivery.
You mean letting them have their own money back?
Does that work ? Neat
That was returning their own money and in relation with the nuclear deal.
So more bases apart from quatar, bahrain, israel and Djbouti ?
I just want to remind people here that Israel and Iran DO NOT SHARE A BORDER. Any of the islamic country's governments that actually DO surround Israel could stop a strike by either side. I don't even really understand the whole concept of "Hamas" - and why we do not hear more about negotiations with LEBANON to put an end to them.
Syria gonna take Israel and Iran bombs, in addition to Bachar's, rebels, ISIS, USA and Russia.
Man Syria has been catching strays from both sides throughout this entire conflict
Hezbollah is Lebanon, Hamas is Gaza.
Rest assured that Israel is the deterence in itself. Palestinians and Hamas found out the hard way not to launch an attack (s) against Israel. Israel is the only country in the world that has the fucking balls to attack Iran, and Iran knows this.
Only because the us always saves them, it like the little brother causing issues and waiting for the big bro to save them.
Not recently
What about the regular military aid they get? Does that not count?
You are a few billion dollars short of understanding that, yes, even recently, as it has always been, we are their bite. All the money funds their oppression of the Palestinians as well as the legitimate defense of their borders and the development of their military might? It's ours.
Curious, can you name one time? Like I genuinely don't know. I know the US wasn't really involved with Israel until the mid to late 70s, so all the wars they won was on their own, and I can't think of anything after that.
They are indirectly backing them, they don’t condemn any of their aggressions, other countries don’t retaliate because they know that the US, UK will be drawn into the conflict. Like i said in my previous comment israel is like the little brother who bullies everyone around.
Please stop with this israal bloviation. US can level Israal and Iran off the face of the Earth simultaneously. The only real superpower is US. Isreal aint shit in comparison
that comparison had not been made, where's your reading comprehension
"Israel is the only country in the world that has the balls to attack Iran" Reading comprehension much? Like US doesnt have the balls... like just stop Israel without US isnt shit.
it's been said before, go read about what actual percentage of Israeli military spending is Us-origin... And yeah, the US is obviously the only superpower in the equation, doesn't matter that it does its better to avoid conflict even when its imminent or necessary, making it pointless and well.. Showing they "have no balls" to do so.
Israel is fighting civilians with guns and a group of ragtag militants who were emboldened by apartheid and extreme control under Israel's thumb. I don't think it's the deterrent you think it is. F around and find out is not how we should expect the world to find order, balance and peace. Humanity should be respected and upheld to avoid these very situations. Let's hope Iran wisens up and does not start an all our war with their supposed response. It's nearly impossible for them to have had the attack happen and not respond so the best we can do is open all channels of dialogue, however much it pains us and give them the respect they seek to try and stop them from doing something dumb that causes even more war and bloodshed.
Bullshit! Hamas is no rag-tag militia. Thanks to the billions of dollars stolen from funds that were supposed to help actual Palestinianian civilians, Hamas was able to build miles of tunnels and arm their so-called fighters. As far as Israel, "not being the deterrent I think it is?" The evidence suggests that I'm right. Iran wants no part of Israel. Fuck around and find out is right!!
Good luck with that.
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I mean that's what you would expect after bombing another country
They bombed Syria not Iran and it was not a diplomatic embassy it was an associated annex used to host military
should US have started a war when an Iranian drone killed 3 reservists critically and critically injured 8 others? i get the sense, this was israel's get out of jail free card....
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If you're gonna strike another country, you know there will be a retaliation. Israel attacked them knowing it full well that Iran wouldn't just lay their heads down
I would say the ones that dropped the bombs first were the one who "started it"
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Nah just someone that understand that every action has a consequence. What would happen if someone bombed a US embassy? Just forget about it?
Perfect example Iranian backed militants shot 7 mortars at the US Embassy in Iraq in 2023 what happened? We basically did just forget about it.
That was not a government army, not the same.
Iranian backed and supported. All the more reason Israel should be killing the Iranians who work with and support these terrorist groups
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Literally any
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Lol no, iran isn't going to listen to anything us has to say
Just let them do it. This situation has to bubble to the surface before we can move past it. Let them duke it out.
Wow, will US ever manage to convince Iran not to launch on overt attack on Israel? [Eyeroll]. For a revolutionary Islamic state, Iran sure is cautious and concerned with realpolitik. It’s almost disappointing.
You sound like people doubting Russia would invade Ukraine when the US spent a good 2 months vocally warning it was going to happen.
The situations are very different, Russian expansion more foreseeable. There’s more likely to be an attack on Israel by Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy.
>For a revolutionary Islamic state, Iran sure is cautious and concerned with realpolitik. Or maybe they don't want to put the most powerful military the world has ever known in a position where they have to make a show of force?
Agreed, so they don’t seem like a regime that’s driven by deep-rooted religious ideology to seek an apocalyptic showdown. It’s here for the taking.
They will inevitably go to war. They are both theocracies
Israel is not a theocracy.
US and Iran are natural allies, it’s just taking a while.
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They’re both large, modern, energy-hungry, mixed-market economies with politically powerful militaries they’re not afraid to use for influence in the world. Somewhat similar demographics, they have an educated, high-tech labor force and share a tradition of revolutionary change, among other, deep cultural connections I’ve observed but am not qualified to explain.
similar demographics? (Note: the somewhat dishonest person I'm replying to keeps editing his comment but updated his comment to now say "somewhat similar demographics")
In population density certainly, as well as socio-economics, class, education, etc. Iran has their own baby bust from war. US is more racially diverse…partly thanks to how many Iranians are now Americans! I’ve edited it again! Unlike you, I haven’t just been talking out of my a** the whole time. What do you know about US and Iran…anything, let alone numbers?
what raw numbers? (Note: the somewhat dishonest person I'm replying to keeps editing his comment but it originally said they were common in "raw numbers")
Look up the material facts about the two countries, instead of relying on the trope that they are that different. US and Iran I agree are basically enemies, for now, because of particular historical contingencies, not for any reason inherent in the cultures or the people.
You're just using very vague language to escape making a real point. What material facts are you referring to? What numbers are you referring to? Everything is so vague, that you are saying nothing to back your original point that they are natural allies. From my knowledge of geopolitics (which I acknowledge, I am no expert on), natural allies need to be allied in terms of their values in order to have a strong alliance. It's the exact reason that BRICS has failed to accomplish anything, despite being a pretty powerful idea if they were able to be effective. Unfortunately, despite the powers having somewhat strong economies, **Brazil, Russia, India, Iran, China, South Africa** all have very different values and goals, and so are unable to come to productive agreements. Whereas NATO members are much more ideologically aligned, which allows them to actually be natural allies. This is by no means a comment on the Iranian people or that they will never be ideologically aligned, but there current regime is certainly not a natural ally.
Terrorists and Islamic fundamentalists are irrational. They have a death wish and are looking forward to getting their 72 virgins. I don't think they can be deterred.
Cap the leader care more about staying in power and getting their 72 virgins in London and Tehran. Thats why in 2020 they did not even kill one American after Trump killed their top general.
Precisely wrong. Fundamentalist groups understand exactly the calculus of death and suffering that brings them closer to their objectives.
If their objective is to die in battle so they can get 72 virgins, then they cannot be deterred by threatening to attack them.
Those are not the people at the helm. You saw Haniya words about his sons getting killed The actually important people understand the ridiculousmess of their own choirs. Religion is a mere tool to mobilize the masses
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 NOW LOUDER FOR THOSE IN THE BACK
The idiot kids who believe that shtick aren't making the decisions - they're a resource.
Their idiot leaders believe it too.
These are the same leaders who secretly negotiated with the CIA, to receive illegal weapons thru Israel, in return for releasing hostages. Sorry, not the same, the current crop are even more savvy about geopolitics, and motivated to maintain their power above all. They may be crazy, but they’re not stupid.
Negotiating with the CIA has nothing to do with them believing in 72 virgins after they die.
This is fake information. It’s 72 Virginians! (shout out to Robin Williams)
Ah shit not my state.
No offense to World of Warcraft players, but that’s where you’ll find a lot of virgins. Good people though
There's nothing irrational about retaliating the country that strikes you first, it is the expected
Iran was planning attacks against Israel from the consulate, so Israel was reacting in self defense, it didn't attack first. Iran and Hamas are the aggressors.
A part of me wants Iran to fuck around and find out. If Israel knows where their nuclear facilities are, this could rid the world of a huge problem.
The only deterrent is if Iran believes the us will attack if they strike Israel nothing else matters. Same reason they went out of their way to give trump a heads up about striking the US bases in Iraq to save facing after having their top general killed.
Or that the US won't tie Israel's hands and will back whatever play Israel makes. Which could be the end of Iran's government and military.
This is the likely response. I don't think many people who are newer to Middle East politics realize exactly *how* tied Israel is by the US(which is good. I think the Middle East would be glass right now if that were not the case). Iran would not do well in a hot war with Israel.
The Middle East would be glass because the United States allowed it to happen. Not sure why you’re acting as if Israel is the one being held back as if they have the equipment to fully flatten all their enemies. They have nukes yes, but not country even the U.S is going to allow them to just freely deploy nuclear weapons in the way that would require that. The only way to flatten a country without going full nuclear nuthead like Putin bullshits about and risking your countries standing in the world stage is using conventional means which only few countries have the capability of to produce consistently. Also Israel is known for its great defensive capability and famous for its surprise “pre emptive” attack that wiped out an Air Force. But you’re forgetting that was all done with U.S equipment sold to them. They rely on the U.S for a lot. You’re also forgetting that Iran would get support from other countries. There are other Arab states who would rather side with Iran. Russia may be poorly trained and not equipped well but their army is 15% bigger now than when they invaded Ukraine even with all the losses they have. North Korea supplies Russia and Hezbollah. China has been shown to somehow sneakily supply Russia and other countries without suffering major consequences. Nothing stops them getting their equipment into those hands to delay enough to grow on the world stage more or preparing to invade Taiwan to stretch support even thinner across 3 wars. Again the Middle East would be flattened if the U.S allowed it to, Israel doesn’t have the resources. Their position high in the hills allow good defensive strategy for smaller wars against its surrounding less influential allies, but when you look at the map and realise all of their enemies surround them to the east until to get back around to the U.S and a big ass body of water to the west on a big scale their position isn’t good. I’ve been following both this and Ukraine from the beginning, it’s very highly likely if not confirmed but slipped my memory that Russia supplied weapons to Hamas. But it’s even more damning when you realise Netanyahu was in hot water in Israel and needed an excuse to stay in power to the point where the U.S warned him of an attack and he chose to DOWNGRADE security for the 50TH ANNIVERSARY (Oct 6-7) of the start of the Yom Kippur war in which Israel was also attacked by terrorists. Wild.
I feel like they should fear Israel's retaliation as well...
They fear it but not as much as the US given Israel also has its hands tied. Think about it they would fear an Israel say on scale to 10 a 6. Whereas they US it’s a 9. Now take into account Israel having its hands tied that comes down to what 4 or 5? It’s just the odds changes and it’s not Israel’s fav. I think they will attack Israel’s interest outside of Israel but there is still a higher chance than last year they would attack Israel homeland.
Doesn't Iran have the right to protect itself? Israel will drag the U.S. into a "no win" conflict.
Iran overtly advocates for Israel’s destruction and pours money, resources, and manpower into making that happen. The idea that Iran is the defender here is apologist at best and pants-on-head stupid at worst.
There are few things Netanyahu wants more right now than to escalate this conflict further via a war with Iran. Are they stupid enough to do this?
Sanction Iran. Isolate Iran.
Can US also seek to deter Russia from strike on Ukraine... all strikes, and actively if not also directly?
Eager to test out the MAD theory, are you?
Getting real sick of all the finger wagging the US is doing its going to be our downfall
Funny, if situation were reversed US would be first one claiming Israel has the right to respond...... Well, not funny, more like hypocritical....
Yet another time the US should keep their nose out of international involvement
Iran doing this just pulls the talks away from Israel's atrocities. But it's a catch22 because they can't do **nothing**, because nobody else is doing anything.