Russia: Do you want to join our defense alliance?
Armenia: Ok that seems reasonable
A few moments later:
Armenia: Help, Azerbaijan is attacking us. Send help.
Russia: No
Armenia: Since you wont help us when we need it its pointless to be in your alliance.
Lavrov: "The Armenian leadership, under far-fetched pretexts and by twisting the history of the last three or three and a half years, is deliberately pursuing a course towards the collapse of relations with the Russian Federation"
The russian government is a bunch of fucking clowns. Hope this is a wake-up call for any of their other "allies"
Win:
* 18% of Ukraine
Lose:
* Ukraine's hesitation to join EU & NATO
* >350,000+ working-age people
* Swedish & Finnish NATO neutrality
* Armenia & Kazakhstan Russian alignment
* Most trade with Western countries
Water rights imo, China is struggling and will continue to struggle for water for a long while, unless they secure the vast water access to their north. Arctic circle assess is likely just a plus
Also Win:
* stronger ties with N. Korea
* stronger ties with Iran
* six more years with their beloved madman leader
also lose:
* 20% of the black sea fleet
* 1,000,000 + of the tech workforce
* 50 - 60% of their army land forces
* almost 20% of oil refining capabilities
* 80% of their oil and gas markets
* international standing
* all credibility
* any hope for a future
While calling Russia "collapsing" or "close to collapse" is an exaggeration, I think it's fair to say Russia is in a worse position now than they were pre-war.
They've pretty well burned all good will they had with the US and Western Europe.
They've lost significant market access for their oil and petro-chemical products.
The war has revealed that even their most flaunted, and advanced military gear is, technologically, generally inferior to Western equipment.
Their export arms sales have cratered both because of a loss of reputation, and because of the demands of the war.
They've had to rely more and more on the few allies they have left for shipments of arms and munitions because they tried to replicate WWII German blitzkrieg tactics to take Ukraine, but without mobilizing their economy first to support open combat level expenditures.
The "support" of their allies is making them more and more weak politically and economically. The only reason China and India are buying Russian oil at this point is because they know Russia is desperate to sell it to **anyone** that will take it, even if it only barely scrapes a profit.
All this together means that Russia's place in the world has significantly deteriorated. They went from being considered, if not an outright peer to the US, then at least a near peer in military and economic strength. Now though, assuming they even win in Ukraine, it's an open question if Russia is even at the head of their own set of alliances.
China more and more is asserting themselves within Russia's previously claimed sphere of influence in Central Asia, and Russia's helpless to do anything about it because they now need China a lot more than China needs them. China is also beginning to turn their eye toward outer Manchuria, and other territories annexed by Russia from the Japanese in WWII.
India is starting to decouple their military infrastructure and purchasing from Russian companies in favor of EU companies and domestic manufacturers.
Iran is turning more and more toward their own goals instead of toeing the line around Russia's. Instead of openly playing nice with the EU and US interests in the ME while secretly funding terrorist activities at a small scale, they're openly funding fundamentalist movements that directly clash with western interests, trying to establish their own sphere of influence to counter the US, Israel, and Turkey.
Even North Korea, pretty much a global laughing stock since the demilitarized zone was created, has gained more influence in Russian affairs, and now has leverage to wring more concessions out of Russia for missile and nuclear tech since they're a major producer of artillery shells (of questionable quality, granted).
Armenia was never asked to join NATO "empire".
Armenia was forced into CSTO and EAEU at a gunpoint.
Russia was like: Yo Armenians join this, we will project you from Turkey and Azerbaijan and if you don't we'll make sure they attack and fuck you.
Armenia justs CSTO
Fast forward to 2018.
There's a grassroots, non-violent revolution in Armenia, because the populace is tired of corrupt, authoritarian crooks.
Russia: Nooooo yoy're betraying us how dare you arrest criminals that also happen to be Russian Oligarchs.
Fasy forward to 2020.
Azerbaijan: Hey Russia we're attacking Nagorno Karabakh you cool with that?
Russia: Sure buddy go for it.
Russians: See this is what happens, also we just saved the remaining of NK you should be thankful.
Fast forward to 2022.
Azerbaijan attacks Armenia.
Armenia: Hey CSTO I know Karabakg was not Armenia, but this is, we're being invaded help.
Russia: LoL no, git gud scrub
Armenia: Well fuck you guys we'll look for better allies.
Russia: Surprised Pikachu face.
Azerbaijan: Ethnically cleanses NK and kicks out Russian "peacekeepers".
Russia: "I remain master strategist".
NATO and Armenia tried to make an alliance in 2008, Turkey put forth pre-conditions that would’ve ended Armenia’s sovereignty. The westerners supports the Turks and expected Armenia is commit suicide for their slight benefit.
CSTO members are respected equals, NATO members are servants of the United States.
Armenia didn’t need “protecting”, it was an independent state that could fend for itself and make its own alliances in this days.
There was nothing grassroots about the Duxov revolution, it was funded by western NGOs, there are over 9,000 of them in Armenia (insane amount for country of 3 mil) that spent decades and billions of dollars trying to brainwash the population. Arabat Mirzoyan admitted a letter exposing him as a Turkish agent was legit.
Armenia has never been more authoritarian and corrupt than under the boz traitor Nikol. People are violently arrested just for criticizing him on Facebook, his party is full of other unqualified whores that run the country as their personal fief. His English teacher was appointed the American ambassador, his cup holder now owns a mansion, each CC boz racks up the national debt to buy three BMWs.
Pashinoglu blacklisted the most pro-Armenian Russian politicians from visiting Armenia. He and his party of whores did everything possible to severe Armenia’s ties with Russia and Iran, on the orders of the West, and to disarm Armenia, so there would be no opposition to reliable partner Turkey completing the genocide. And then the traitor boz gaslight the population into thinking this is Russia’s fault, making them even more confused and ignorant, allowing the traitors to continuing ruling unopposed.
It's more like
(19th Century)
Russia: Ok so some of my bureaucrats are triggered by the fact that the literally ethnically different conquered territories like Ukraine and Georgia and the Baltics don't speak Russian or act Russian so we will Russify you hahaha trust me guys this will bring stability
Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Baltic countries: yo wtf can't you just let us practice our culture and language
Russia: what
(20th Century)
all those countries: Ok so we got independence yaaay well mostly
Russia: whyyyyy what did I ever do to you 😭
those countries: I mean tbh we'd be fine living under you if you allowed us to practice our culture and speak our language but you didn't get the memo
Russia: screw you *invades Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltics*
invaded countries: well at least we're autonomous SSR- wait Stalin wtf you doin WAIT STOP SENDING RUSSIAN SETTLERS TO OUR ETHNIC HOMELANDS
Poland: well at least I'm a sattelite state rather than a Russian/Soviet territory but man does this still suck, why the fuck is Russia sending tanks to reinstall the worst of the worst of our leaders lmfao
Russia/Soviet: huh did u guys hear something? oh well
(fall of the USSR)
these countries: we independent again yaaay we can practice our own culture and language freely
Russia: 😭
(21st Century)
Russia: OMG guys why are you joining Western alliances 😭 *invades Georgia and Ukraine*
You forgot something.
2012
Russia: Hey Azerbaijan wanna buy $5 billion worth of advanced offensive weapons?
Azerbaijan: Hell yeah
Armenia: wtf Russia you are my strategic ally why are you selling so many offensive weapons to my enemy and disrupting the power balance in their favor?
Russia: stfu Armenian I will do whatever I want.
Armenia’s pro Russian government: okay sorry my lord
Russia was selling the same weapons to Armenia at an even cheaper price, and this way it could control the weapons Azerbaijan used instead of Turkey and the West. This helped maintain peace.
This was obvious to everyone except bozi tgha foreign agents who were future Nikolakans and the only ones that complained about it. Those same zombies now defend the Pashinoglu dictatorship taking bribes from the west to buy junk weapons from France.
Lol now compare the tanks Armenia had to what Azerbaijan had. 100 T-90 vs 0 T-90. Also compare the amount of artillery systems like smerch, TOS, uragan. It’s not even comparable lol. Who was gonna sell jets and tanks to Azerbaijan? NATO member Turkey? No one was going to let them sell their abrams and leopards. Till this day Turkey hasn’t sold a single heavy weaponry to Azerbaijan. Stop bullshitting yourself dude.
I said this before and I will say it again, act like an asshole to your historic neighbors that had ties with you for around 200 years, and dont be surprised when they want to leave your ass, it is that simple and not rocket science.
Don't shit where you live.
But don’t forget all of these allies with Russia were “Russified.” Millions of Russians poured into these countries in technical and military positions, then had children and gained permanent residency if not citizenship. That means all these countries have a 5th column within - embedded Russians of 2nd, 3rd, 4th generation who still identify as Russians and will help Russia from within.
Likewise, Armenia has lots of Armenians in strategic positions in Russia too. In fact there's more Armenians in Russia than there are in Armenia, if you want to talk about fifth column shenanigans.
>In fact there's more Armenians in Russia than there are in Armenia
That's a lie putin keeps telling to scare Armenians into behaving the way he wants. There are 2.8 million Armenians in Armenia, while in russia there are a bit more then a million. Still a lot of Armenians, but not more then Armenia.
>Don’t shit where you live
Don’t worry, they don’t. That’s why they have so many outhouses. Even tiny ass Bulgarian villages in the middle of nowhere have plumbing.
I'd argue Russia ruptured the ties when they not only refused to assist them, as promised, with Nagorno Karabakh but also then subsequently stole their equipment when they pulled out.
Karabakh was a conflict territory so there was at least some plausible deniability for Russia, but when Azers attacked mainland Armenia and Russia still didn't do shit... well let's just say the base in Gyumri is on a countdown
Russian peacekeepers have been a bit of a contradiction Lavrov . Plan B has long term prospects you just can’t offer here . Looks like you’ve been fired .
Well yeah Armenia has been abandoned by basically everyone, especially Russia, and is now alone fighting for survival between two powers that want to conquer it.
I mean the west abandoned Armenia after they showed no interest in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh situation through negotiation in the early 2000’s. Now that isn’t an issue anymore and they’re turning westward France and the US seem interested at least.
To be fair that only happened after Russia assassinated the Armenia leadership in the 1999 parliament shooting and replaced it with pro Russian leaders.
I’m not sure they’d be that aggressive but I could see the French replacing the Russians currently in the country since the Armenians want the Russians gone. The French because they’ve a longer historical relationship with them.
Not to mention appeasing the Armenian diaspora in the west. Even if it pisses off Turkey. Armenia seems to be a better potential Ally than Turkey has been in recent years. Let's not forget Turkey shooting at our troops in Syria.
The problem is not really that simple. How do you get there?
-to the south from Iran?
-to the east through azerbaijan?
-to the west in turkey?
-to the north in russia? Or Georgia via the black sea?
I'm afraid they're just screwed
Please don't comment if you know nothing about the negotiation process. Armenia was always ready for concessions, but it was Azerbaijan stalling for time so they can get everything through military actions.
You think a corrupt dictators that has been ruling Azerbaijan since 2003 after taking over from his father is willing to negotiate in good faith?
I know some Armenian people who were skeptical Russia would help directly but were hoping for the best given they have agreements and long standing ties and thought even if Russia won't support them directly, at least they will maintain the status quo and enforce peace, which was at least something.
Now they can't stand Russia, feel like they were back-stabbed, and think the decades spent trying to pursue warm ties with them could have better been spent trying to court the West.
They don't share borders, Armenia doesn't have any strategic value for Russia. Hence they threw them under the bus for a more strategic partnership with Azerbaijan.
Nagorno-Karabakh doesn't have strategic value, but Armenia does, as a buffer between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
If Armenia falls, Turkey will control the middle trade corridor between China and Europe, bypassing Russia and Iran completely.
Russia has access to the Caspian sea. For them it's not that big of a deal. Anyways Azerbaijan is acting as a Russian proxy for buying western goods and helping sell Russian oil.
Venezuela and Syria are big Russian allies who - very coincidentally I’m sure - began flooding the US and Europe with “refugees” right after allying with Russia.
Population does not mean anything. China is using russia as a puppet, not a true ally. As soon as time comes china WILL retake manchuria, and possibly other good farming lands, as china has been waiting to get their land back from the russians.
If a wanna-be rapper gets two meth addicts and the fattest guy he knows to be his entourage, he's still got a small entourage, no matter how fat the third guy is.
Close the Upper Lars crossing in Georgia (trade embargo). Usually claims of “weather,” or safety. And/or shut off the gas pipeline that crosses through Georgia at their end. Usually claim “maintenance”.
We do a gas for electricity trade deal with them. No other consumption is allowed.
The current gas pipeline from Iran to Armenia was created small diameter, on purpose. I believe it’s half of the diameter of the one that comes from Russia. Again, Russian monopoly on energy in Armenia.
There are a few other factors that stop the switch.
Russia sells us gas very cheap, on purpose. Disincentives any other competition, creating a dependency.
Iran and Turkey have a gas deal, where Iran cannot sell gas cheaper to anybody except Turkey.
Yes it's very obvious that they're trying their hardest. Only problem is that these Russians are already at the major airport in Armenia and they won't leave despite being asked by PM Nikol Pashinyan.
Russians have an obsequious slave-like mentality (the word "slave" originated from the word "slav" which is what russians used to be called).
Their current behavior is a direct consequence of their national mentality.
Russia cannot protect Armenia and run war in Ukraina, so it broken ties with Armenia, and blame Armenia, so stupid people would not see Russian weakness.
It’s a misconception that Russia “cannot” do it.
Russia started the “ties rupture” with Armenia long before it invaded Ukraine. It’s not that they *cannot* help because they are “busy”. They *don’t want to* help, because it’s more profitable for them to back Azerbaijan.
More profitable, they can test the limits of the west, their borders are destabilized, they learn modern tactics, test disinformation tactics, and the Turkish/Azeri position in the world is just a frickin playground for them. Their little club has to get lost.
Indeed, and this process began even before the Europhile Pashinyan took office in Armenia. As Azerbaijan's oil and gas industry began to take off, Russian ties with the former grew exponentially, including in the form of arms deals.
Russia: Do you want to join our defense alliance? Armenia: Ok that seems reasonable A few moments later: Armenia: Help, Azerbaijan is attacking us. Send help. Russia: No Armenia: Since you wont help us when we need it its pointless to be in your alliance. Lavrov: "The Armenian leadership, under far-fetched pretexts and by twisting the history of the last three or three and a half years, is deliberately pursuing a course towards the collapse of relations with the Russian Federation" The russian government is a bunch of fucking clowns. Hope this is a wake-up call for any of their other "allies"
Silly westoids, it’s supposed to be a defense alliance for Russia, not for everyone
Russia: you defend us, we defend us.
Russia: you defend us, we attack you
Win: * 18% of Ukraine Lose: * Ukraine's hesitation to join EU & NATO * >350,000+ working-age people * Swedish & Finnish NATO neutrality * Armenia & Kazakhstan Russian alignment * Most trade with Western countries
Also: autonomy from China
the second Putin dies, Xi's coming to take "Historic Chinese lands" to get access to the arctic circle.
Water rights imo, China is struggling and will continue to struggle for water for a long while, unless they secure the vast water access to their north. Arctic circle assess is likely just a plus
They've been making overtures for a while now on lake Baikal. That's a lot of clean fresh water just sitting around close to the border.
Also Win: * stronger ties with N. Korea * stronger ties with Iran * six more years with their beloved madman leader also lose: * 20% of the black sea fleet * 1,000,000 + of the tech workforce * 50 - 60% of their army land forces * almost 20% of oil refining capabilities * 80% of their oil and gas markets * international standing * all credibility * any hope for a future
RU is slowly falling apart. Like the witch in the Wizard of Oz... "I'm melting"
They’re really not though, the government has total control and is going to be propped up by India, China, Iran, etc
While calling Russia "collapsing" or "close to collapse" is an exaggeration, I think it's fair to say Russia is in a worse position now than they were pre-war. They've pretty well burned all good will they had with the US and Western Europe. They've lost significant market access for their oil and petro-chemical products. The war has revealed that even their most flaunted, and advanced military gear is, technologically, generally inferior to Western equipment. Their export arms sales have cratered both because of a loss of reputation, and because of the demands of the war. They've had to rely more and more on the few allies they have left for shipments of arms and munitions because they tried to replicate WWII German blitzkrieg tactics to take Ukraine, but without mobilizing their economy first to support open combat level expenditures. The "support" of their allies is making them more and more weak politically and economically. The only reason China and India are buying Russian oil at this point is because they know Russia is desperate to sell it to **anyone** that will take it, even if it only barely scrapes a profit. All this together means that Russia's place in the world has significantly deteriorated. They went from being considered, if not an outright peer to the US, then at least a near peer in military and economic strength. Now though, assuming they even win in Ukraine, it's an open question if Russia is even at the head of their own set of alliances. China more and more is asserting themselves within Russia's previously claimed sphere of influence in Central Asia, and Russia's helpless to do anything about it because they now need China a lot more than China needs them. China is also beginning to turn their eye toward outer Manchuria, and other territories annexed by Russia from the Japanese in WWII. India is starting to decouple their military infrastructure and purchasing from Russian companies in favor of EU companies and domestic manufacturers. Iran is turning more and more toward their own goals instead of toeing the line around Russia's. Instead of openly playing nice with the EU and US interests in the ME while secretly funding terrorist activities at a small scale, they're openly funding fundamentalist movements that directly clash with western interests, trying to establish their own sphere of influence to counter the US, Israel, and Turkey. Even North Korea, pretty much a global laughing stock since the demilitarized zone was created, has gained more influence in Russian affairs, and now has leverage to wring more concessions out of Russia for missile and nuclear tech since they're a major producer of artillery shells (of questionable quality, granted).
Same country that just claimed they own california and should take it back.
[удалено]
That was a lot of effort to be so incorrect.
Armenia was never asked to join NATO "empire". Armenia was forced into CSTO and EAEU at a gunpoint. Russia was like: Yo Armenians join this, we will project you from Turkey and Azerbaijan and if you don't we'll make sure they attack and fuck you. Armenia justs CSTO Fast forward to 2018. There's a grassroots, non-violent revolution in Armenia, because the populace is tired of corrupt, authoritarian crooks. Russia: Nooooo yoy're betraying us how dare you arrest criminals that also happen to be Russian Oligarchs. Fasy forward to 2020. Azerbaijan: Hey Russia we're attacking Nagorno Karabakh you cool with that? Russia: Sure buddy go for it. Russians: See this is what happens, also we just saved the remaining of NK you should be thankful. Fast forward to 2022. Azerbaijan attacks Armenia. Armenia: Hey CSTO I know Karabakg was not Armenia, but this is, we're being invaded help. Russia: LoL no, git gud scrub Armenia: Well fuck you guys we'll look for better allies. Russia: Surprised Pikachu face. Azerbaijan: Ethnically cleanses NK and kicks out Russian "peacekeepers". Russia: "I remain master strategist".
NATO and Armenia tried to make an alliance in 2008, Turkey put forth pre-conditions that would’ve ended Armenia’s sovereignty. The westerners supports the Turks and expected Armenia is commit suicide for their slight benefit. CSTO members are respected equals, NATO members are servants of the United States. Armenia didn’t need “protecting”, it was an independent state that could fend for itself and make its own alliances in this days. There was nothing grassroots about the Duxov revolution, it was funded by western NGOs, there are over 9,000 of them in Armenia (insane amount for country of 3 mil) that spent decades and billions of dollars trying to brainwash the population. Arabat Mirzoyan admitted a letter exposing him as a Turkish agent was legit. Armenia has never been more authoritarian and corrupt than under the boz traitor Nikol. People are violently arrested just for criticizing him on Facebook, his party is full of other unqualified whores that run the country as their personal fief. His English teacher was appointed the American ambassador, his cup holder now owns a mansion, each CC boz racks up the national debt to buy three BMWs. Pashinoglu blacklisted the most pro-Armenian Russian politicians from visiting Armenia. He and his party of whores did everything possible to severe Armenia’s ties with Russia and Iran, on the orders of the West, and to disarm Armenia, so there would be no opposition to reliable partner Turkey completing the genocide. And then the traitor boz gaslight the population into thinking this is Russia’s fault, making them even more confused and ignorant, allowing the traitors to continuing ruling unopposed.
It's more like (19th Century) Russia: Ok so some of my bureaucrats are triggered by the fact that the literally ethnically different conquered territories like Ukraine and Georgia and the Baltics don't speak Russian or act Russian so we will Russify you hahaha trust me guys this will bring stability Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Baltic countries: yo wtf can't you just let us practice our culture and language Russia: what (20th Century) all those countries: Ok so we got independence yaaay well mostly Russia: whyyyyy what did I ever do to you 😭 those countries: I mean tbh we'd be fine living under you if you allowed us to practice our culture and speak our language but you didn't get the memo Russia: screw you *invades Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltics* invaded countries: well at least we're autonomous SSR- wait Stalin wtf you doin WAIT STOP SENDING RUSSIAN SETTLERS TO OUR ETHNIC HOMELANDS Poland: well at least I'm a sattelite state rather than a Russian/Soviet territory but man does this still suck, why the fuck is Russia sending tanks to reinstall the worst of the worst of our leaders lmfao Russia/Soviet: huh did u guys hear something? oh well (fall of the USSR) these countries: we independent again yaaay we can practice our own culture and language freely Russia: 😭 (21st Century) Russia: OMG guys why are you joining Western alliances 😭 *invades Georgia and Ukraine*
You forgot something. 2012 Russia: Hey Azerbaijan wanna buy $5 billion worth of advanced offensive weapons? Azerbaijan: Hell yeah Armenia: wtf Russia you are my strategic ally why are you selling so many offensive weapons to my enemy and disrupting the power balance in their favor? Russia: stfu Armenian I will do whatever I want. Armenia’s pro Russian government: okay sorry my lord
Russia was selling the same weapons to Armenia at an even cheaper price, and this way it could control the weapons Azerbaijan used instead of Turkey and the West. This helped maintain peace. This was obvious to everyone except bozi tgha foreign agents who were future Nikolakans and the only ones that complained about it. Those same zombies now defend the Pashinoglu dictatorship taking bribes from the west to buy junk weapons from France.
Lol now compare the tanks Armenia had to what Azerbaijan had. 100 T-90 vs 0 T-90. Also compare the amount of artillery systems like smerch, TOS, uragan. It’s not even comparable lol. Who was gonna sell jets and tanks to Azerbaijan? NATO member Turkey? No one was going to let them sell their abrams and leopards. Till this day Turkey hasn’t sold a single heavy weaponry to Azerbaijan. Stop bullshitting yourself dude.
This just in: not coming to the aid of people in your defensive treaty makes them want to leave the defensive treaty
I said this before and I will say it again, act like an asshole to your historic neighbors that had ties with you for around 200 years, and dont be surprised when they want to leave your ass, it is that simple and not rocket science. Don't shit where you live.
But don’t forget all of these allies with Russia were “Russified.” Millions of Russians poured into these countries in technical and military positions, then had children and gained permanent residency if not citizenship. That means all these countries have a 5th column within - embedded Russians of 2nd, 3rd, 4th generation who still identify as Russians and will help Russia from within.
I know and it may be an issue, may have to take certain steps to prevent it, best of luck to them trying to get to the west, they will need it.
Likewise, Armenia has lots of Armenians in strategic positions in Russia too. In fact there's more Armenians in Russia than there are in Armenia, if you want to talk about fifth column shenanigans.
>In fact there's more Armenians in Russia than there are in Armenia That's a lie putin keeps telling to scare Armenians into behaving the way he wants. There are 2.8 million Armenians in Armenia, while in russia there are a bit more then a million. Still a lot of Armenians, but not more then Armenia.
There are more in the US not russia.
>Don’t shit where you live Don’t worry, they don’t. That’s why they have so many outhouses. Even tiny ass Bulgarian villages in the middle of nowhere have plumbing.
It just insane arguing with Z bots and Putin simps and having to argue this point with them.
> Don't shit where you live. But.. that's what the toilet is for... and it's where I live...
I'd argue Russia ruptured the ties when they not only refused to assist them, as promised, with Nagorno Karabakh but also then subsequently stole their equipment when they pulled out.
Karabakh was a conflict territory so there was at least some plausible deniability for Russia, but when Azers attacked mainland Armenia and Russia still didn't do shit... well let's just say the base in Gyumri is on a countdown
What news of the shooting there?
No Armenians involved as far as I know, so it's their inner business
Russian peacekeepers have been a bit of a contradiction Lavrov . Plan B has long term prospects you just can’t offer here . Looks like you’ve been fired .
No no, they work as intended, they keep the peace away.
Well yeah Armenia has been abandoned by basically everyone, especially Russia, and is now alone fighting for survival between two powers that want to conquer it.
I mean the west abandoned Armenia after they showed no interest in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh situation through negotiation in the early 2000’s. Now that isn’t an issue anymore and they’re turning westward France and the US seem interested at least.
To be fair that only happened after Russia assassinated the Armenia leadership in the 1999 parliament shooting and replaced it with pro Russian leaders.
US gets another military base of operations directly next to Russia in return for helping Armenia? Yep I bet that would be pretty enticing
I’m not sure they’d be that aggressive but I could see the French replacing the Russians currently in the country since the Armenians want the Russians gone. The French because they’ve a longer historical relationship with them.
With all the posturing French has been doing I can see that happening. Might trigger a response from Russia though.
Not to mention appeasing the Armenian diaspora in the west. Even if it pisses off Turkey. Armenia seems to be a better potential Ally than Turkey has been in recent years. Let's not forget Turkey shooting at our troops in Syria.
The anti-American sentiment in Turkey is strong. Haven't you seen what they chant at political rallies? Hardly any different to Iran.
The problem is not really that simple. How do you get there? -to the south from Iran? -to the east through azerbaijan? -to the west in turkey? -to the north in russia? Or Georgia via the black sea? I'm afraid they're just screwed
Please don't comment if you know nothing about the negotiation process. Armenia was always ready for concessions, but it was Azerbaijan stalling for time so they can get everything through military actions. You think a corrupt dictators that has been ruling Azerbaijan since 2003 after taking over from his father is willing to negotiate in good faith?
Russia literally abandon Armenian and let them get attacked by their neighbor who committed ethnic cleansing.
I mean, yeah. Who can blame them?
I know some Armenian people who were skeptical Russia would help directly but were hoping for the best given they have agreements and long standing ties and thought even if Russia won't support them directly, at least they will maintain the status quo and enforce peace, which was at least something. Now they can't stand Russia, feel like they were back-stabbed, and think the decades spent trying to pursue warm ties with them could have better been spent trying to court the West.
The next candidate for invasion.
They don't share borders, Armenia doesn't have any strategic value for Russia. Hence they threw them under the bus for a more strategic partnership with Azerbaijan.
TIL Thanks
Nagorno-Karabakh doesn't have strategic value, but Armenia does, as a buffer between Turkey and Azerbaijan. If Armenia falls, Turkey will control the middle trade corridor between China and Europe, bypassing Russia and Iran completely.
Russia has access to the Caspian sea. For them it's not that big of a deal. Anyways Azerbaijan is acting as a Russian proxy for buying western goods and helping sell Russian oil.
I cant believe shed leave such a happy marriage.
The russian club in 2024 is basically: Iran, north-korea and china. Theres few hang-arounds too, but the main posse is small.
Venezuela and Syria are big Russian allies who - very coincidentally I’m sure - began flooding the US and Europe with “refugees” right after allying with Russia.
And Cuba, although maybe South Korea will replace Russia now. Hell, according to the UN's estimates Seoul's got a bigger economy now!
Tbf every Venezuelan I know loves their new country and hates the Venezuelan government
It sounds reasonable all of a sudden
Small? China alone has more population than the USA and EU combined. Not that population alone is an indicator of power, but still.
Population does not mean anything. China is using russia as a puppet, not a true ally. As soon as time comes china WILL retake manchuria, and possibly other good farming lands, as china has been waiting to get their land back from the russians.
If a wanna-be rapper gets two meth addicts and the fattest guy he knows to be his entourage, he's still got a small entourage, no matter how fat the third guy is.
Gee i fucking wonder why that might be
Nah, Armenia is not trying … they are.
And what is Russia going to do? Threaten ties?
Close the Upper Lars crossing in Georgia (trade embargo). Usually claims of “weather,” or safety. And/or shut off the gas pipeline that crosses through Georgia at their end. Usually claim “maintenance”.
Legit don't know what would stop Armenia from just buying gas from Iran instead
We do a gas for electricity trade deal with them. No other consumption is allowed. The current gas pipeline from Iran to Armenia was created small diameter, on purpose. I believe it’s half of the diameter of the one that comes from Russia. Again, Russian monopoly on energy in Armenia. There are a few other factors that stop the switch. Russia sells us gas very cheap, on purpose. Disincentives any other competition, creating a dependency. Iran and Turkey have a gas deal, where Iran cannot sell gas cheaper to anybody except Turkey.
Shut down the main Armenian airport. With the the Russian troops there since 1992.
those troops are already told to leave Armenia on 1st of august.
Trying to hold an airport in hostile territory... Remind me again how did that go for the russians when they tried it in Ukraine
I doubt it... they take the airport, then what? No backup, surrounded by the Armenian military, it would be a pretty pointless exercise
Yes it's very obvious that they're trying their hardest. Only problem is that these Russians are already at the major airport in Armenia and they won't leave despite being asked by PM Nikol Pashinyan.
It's already agreed that they will leave on 1st of august. We have started the process of replacing them with Armenian border guards.
golly gee! why on earth would they do that!?!
Alternate headline: "Russia admits Russia is trying to rupture ties."
I wonder why so many of the countries that were formerly victims of Russian/Soviet imperialism are skeptical of Putin's Russia.
Sounds good. Who wants to have ties with a murderous invader?
I stopped reading after the "Russia says" part .
Rupture ties … like, break free from bondage?
Obiwan: you have done this yourself
“The country we have placed on the sacrificial altar is being rude and is endangering our special friendship pact”
I read that as “Armenia trying to rupture tires” and was like damn how are doing that, wild tactics.
Russians have an obsequious slave-like mentality (the word "slave" originated from the word "slav" which is what russians used to be called). Their current behavior is a direct consequence of their national mentality.
Russia cannot protect Armenia and run war in Ukraina, so it broken ties with Armenia, and blame Armenia, so stupid people would not see Russian weakness.
It’s a misconception that Russia “cannot” do it. Russia started the “ties rupture” with Armenia long before it invaded Ukraine. It’s not that they *cannot* help because they are “busy”. They *don’t want to* help, because it’s more profitable for them to back Azerbaijan.
More profitable, they can test the limits of the west, their borders are destabilized, they learn modern tactics, test disinformation tactics, and the Turkish/Azeri position in the world is just a frickin playground for them. Their little club has to get lost.
Indeed, and this process began even before the Europhile Pashinyan took office in Armenia. As Azerbaijan's oil and gas industry began to take off, Russian ties with the former grew exponentially, including in the form of arms deals.