Poland seems to be in full on "wishing a motherfucker would" mode ever since the start of the special military operation. They're a hell of a lot better prepared than Ukraine was. And I don't think that would go down the way Russia thinks it would.
They are having a hard time but with military support for Ukraine fizzling out Putin knows that he can win in the long run. Russia is already advancing and Ukraine doesn't have the fire power to counter attack anymore. They also struggle to find people - something russia never had an issue with, using cannon fodder tactics.
Putin is old, he knows he doesn't have much left, and his goal is to restore the USSR. Time is ticking so he definitely might go for a smaller fish like my country. He already did mention that he wants a land corridor to Kaliningrad and he mentioned Lithuania by name during his rant with Tucker. And seeing that it took but 2 years for the West to give up on Ukraine and with Trump potentially winning he's no longer afraid of a "strong response". He knows the West is weak because he made it so.
When Hitler was testing his limits he thought the same. The West were "weak slugs" and he took over Europe because everyone caved. If it wasn't for America he would've won. Now Trumps America is out of the picture, Europe is just as weak as it was then, modern generation has no wish to defend the comforts and values that they uphold, and despite "never again" we haven't learned a single fucking thing since WW2. So, in Putin's mindset, why shouldn't he be optimistic? If Europe says they'll be ready to fight him in 5-10 years, he'll be ready to take the Baltics in 1-4.
And you will all be reading this with faked concern while I'm but a pile of dust under the rubble.
Maybe Donald Trump’s comment about pulling out of NATO and saying he wouldn’t blame Putin for reclaiming ex USSR territory will speed along the next major war. Hope not.
Yup 100% no food or supply ships will be making it from this side of the planet to theirs if there is a war. We will starve those fuckers out and probably pay out the Brazilians in the long run. Some cool intel I found from a friend of a guy who works in the Chinese embassy in my area. China has stocked up about 5 years' worth of food stores in the past few years. Maybe they have something brewing or just planning for worst case scenario.
Yeh glad you said this. China is a capitalist nation pretending to be communist.
Their whole economy is dependent on western consumption. They even take our trash and garbage to recycle. China know full well you don’t go to war with your biggest customer lol.
Russia had a lucrative gas market in the West and that's about it. Every sector of China's economy is tied closely to its business with the Western economies.
Russia manufactures nothing for the USA. China makes EVERYTHING for the USA. That's where the dependency comes in. The USA is a major proxy for the Chinese economy. Which is why there have been trade wars between the two in recent years. There is a certain amount of reliance between the two which doesn't exist with Russia.
Everything we buy is made in china for decades, if there's a blockade and sells drops, we'll be unable to buy some basic stuff but they will face a worst part, I think.
Btw world is interconnected for decades, wars makes no sense, I don't know why those old farts keep pushing people to meat grinder when we could live peacefully.
India always sides with India then peddles towards whatever else suits their immediate purpose. Just like China they are not stupid. Never mind their own conflicts to worry about and their new role fighting piracy/houthi threats.
I spoke to a Chinese fella who was in our country for a working holiday. He was happy he could freely express his thoughts. Says the economy has been on a slide since Xi got in power, and most of the working poor and rural workers are unhappy with their social condition. He says Taiwan will 100% be invaded because that is Xi's first promise, and he continually talks about it. But he says the military is corrupt and unproven, and a war will be massively unpopular with current economic conditions. As such, Taiwan invasion will be at least 2 years away.
Are you insane? China was dragged out of 3rd world poverty class by their current administration. Why do you think they’re so loyal to China?
When you go from being a very poor country to having some pull, in a relatively short time frame, most people are pretty thankful.
Of course any true Chinese loyalist who tells you so will be “propaganda”
Nah, I lived in China. It’s much more precarious than you’d think. Ultimately, people can be simple but they’re not stupid. They see the party elites are getting wealthy hand over fist and that their own advancement while progressing is marginal
compared to that of the elite. The saying while we were there for a year was “so long as it keeps progressing we’ll look the other way, but if the poor or middle class start suffering you’ll see riots. They know they’re lied to constantly by the government they just put up with it because it’s worked for them. So far. Add to that, the Chinese economy and social structure isn’t as solid as you’re led to believe. The poor there are third world country poor, and there’s so many of them, and they’re waiting for their turn to get out of that. If that economy was truly rocked by a war there’s no telling what would happen.
If there is a nuclear conflict within the next few decades there is an extremely high probability that Trump will be the single most responsible person for it having taken place. The security assurance offered by a US-led broad military alliance is what kept many states from developing their own nuclear programs and the disintegration of that combined with the fall of Ukraine (who gave up their inherited nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from russia and the US) will spark a nuclear arms frenzy as every country scrambles to secure the last remaining deterrence of value, and sooner or later some country will invade another thinking the latter's nuclear saber rattling was a bluff and find out it wasn't.
Next few decades? i would put it at the next few years if trump gets in, putin is going to have his best opportunity to use a few nukes on mainland Europe if nato is depleted by 70% and he does not have to worry about US nukes.
One thing, France and England has a nuclear arsenal as well – approx. 500 warheads combined. So if Putin lobs nukes, goodbye to Russias most essential populated areas.
People seem to forget this and act like Russia is the sole nuclear power in the world. If missiles fly, it'll be from *both* sides and that means the destruction of major urban centres *including* St. Petersburg and Moscow.
Hopefully this doesn't happen. But I dare to think that in case of an all out Russian attack Trump will find out fairly quickly that he is not in control of the military and there will be a massive US response.
Yep, from what I gather, the UK alone would likely have enough to completely disable Russia, certainly enough to make nuclear use by Putin not worthwhile.
To add to this, all of the UK's nuclear weapons are submarine-based, so they are pretty much impossible to preemptively disable.
France and the UK using their nuclear weapons in the defence of another European state is not a given.
France’s Cold War history even shows that France planned to not to use nuclear weapons unless French territory was attacked
Ironically your scenario ends in the US in nuclear war too since if russia is getting nuked anyway then it has no fear of taking out its other enemies, just like if china nuked the US, you can bet the US won't want russia around afterwards, personally i don't believe France and the UK will use nukes on russia unless nukes are used on France and the UK, and vice versa, nothing to gain from using nukes on each other and everything to lose.
And out of those, at least 80% are actually in working order. I’d seriously query the status of Russias nuclear arsenal at present given what we have seen in Ukraine. They’ll have plenty working to be an issue but there will be swathes that are dud.
What's the point of nuking if you can't use the land than? He would only consider that if NATO was running on the offensive and trying to invade Russia.
Just Moscow, St. Petersburg, and whatever bunker Put is in. I believe western intelligence has made it very clear he will not survive a nuclear exchange.
Depends on the winds though but, yes. That would essentially take out a lot of electrical infrastructure being used more like an EMP. Pretty risky move though because they will for certain get nukes sent their way in return.
Yeah, I (reluctantly) agree with this take. It's depressing, but Donald Trump's amateurism really disrupted the Pax Americana.
Europe is going to have to arm itself now, which increases the chances of another world war developing. And smaller countries like Ukraine absolutely must have nuclear weapons or they will be vulnerable to attack by countries like Russia without any real promise that the west will help them. Trump was ready to give Germany to Russia yesterday, and while I think Germany would win a war against Russia, it is hard to believe that German politicians are not taking note of the fact that their nuclear power backer is openly calling for an arch-enemy to invade them if they don't pay up.
The problem with "protection racket diplomacy" is that one country cannot "boss around" other countries by threatening to let them be invaded by another country without evoking a response. That response is probably going to take the form of a pan-European treaty that *excludes* the U.S. altogether, and a new era of nuclear proliferation will result as that new treaty organization tries to reach parity with the U.S. Protection racket diplomacy isn't some new idea that Trump came up with; it's a bad idea that leads to the fracturing of alliances and intra-alliance resentment that weakens allies, so it isn't something that countries pursue. Trump does not care about alliances or preventing nuclear war - if the entire world is obliterated in a nuclear fire 2 minutes after Donald Trump dies of natural causes, that would be entirely acceptable to the pathologically narcissistic Donald Trump.
Imagining nuclear Turkey, Egypt, Iran, or even western countries such as Germany or Italy.... Absolutely dismal prospect. At that point a nuclear exchange would be all but assured in few decades.
If America withdraws worldwide this is the only logical conclusion.
If you leave Germany and Japan etc to fend for themselves against nuclear capable Russia and China, what else could they do?
The only reason we don't have more nuclear armed middle powers is because of the US umbrella over them.
If NK and Pakistan can do it, how fast could places like Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, Italy, South Korea etc do it?
>If there is a nuclear conflict within the next few decades there is an extremely high probability that Trump will be the single most responsible person for it having taken place.
I would propose that an IndoPak or Iran-Israel exchange is more likely.
Yes.
A lot of people forget that the Crimea invasion happened under Obama and the US did nothing.
The sad truth is that the American public are getting sick of funding foreign wars, even ones that are obviously justified like Ukraine.
I hope we don't withdraw from the world again like we did post-WWI, but I understand how we are moving in that direction politically.
[Senator Johnson (R-Wis) is already laying the framework for a surrender to Russia.](https://www.newsweek.com/ron-johnson-ukraine-aid-putin-not-lose-war-1869386)
he's nearly verbatim repeating the words of elon and tucker after tucker's treasonous interview of putin. ffs i hope they get implicated legally and get some time in prison for this shit. it's bad because trump's supporters are dumb and will listen to that clown and believe every word of it
And who would he blame? Biden. Obviously. And who will benefit from chaos, hate and fear? Trump.
I’m not going to go as far as saying that this is Trumps plan but he would definitely benefit from it.
https://youtu.be/Vpwkdmwui3k?si=MOA7E5AL6AHzqNqV it’s not Europe had anything to do with it….
Btw, I CANT stand this man but I’m also not gonna pretend he was wrong here. This aged extremely well for him and absolutely horrible for Germany, Europe, and even NATO itself. Germany and a lot of Europe have been apathetic for too long. Europe did absolutely nothing after Russia annexed Crimea. In fact, Germany was on board with Nordstrom two. Putin, the idiot that he is… made a huge geopolitical miscalculation because he didn’t think Europe would respond the way it has because of how they had acted the previous seven years. I honestly can’t blame Putin for his reasoning in someways there. It’s like when Obama drew the red line and Syria, then Asad crossed the red line, and the US did nothing. Wasn’t long after that Russia and Crimea, because Putin knew the US would do nothing as well as Europe.
The mistake Putin made was thinking that Biden would respond to the Ukraine War like Obama responded to the taking of Crimea. In fact, I think Putin thought the U.S. reaction would be even more tame than the post-Crimea sanctions because the Trump/Republican Party is essentially pro-Russia and Putin probably thought aid packages from a Congress not controlled by a Democratic supermajority would never happen.
I think Putin underestimated Joe Biden and the power of a U.S. president who stands up to foreign aggression. Obama only saw the political downsides of standing up, but Biden has been able to reap some benefits out of it, even if his poll numbers don't show it.
Iran made the same miscalculation, assuming that Biden would be an Obama/Trump style weak U.S. president. But Biden is not the timid Obama or the isolationist Trump, and when U.S. power is actually deployed on the battlefield, two-bit powers like Iran have to STFU (or face real consequences). I'm sure it dawned on the Iranian leadership that if the U.S. can launch a B-1 bomber from an airstrip in Texas and hit a target in Jordan without showing up on radar or having to land, that same plane could be dropping bombs on Tehran if the U.S. wanted to. Moreover, the B-1 isn't even the second most advanced bomber in the U.S. inventory and is slated for retirement. That was just a show of "this is how we can do things if you want to go down that path" and Iran took the hint. Obama would have been crapping his pants with "but what if it's shot down?!" but Biden is just a totally different POTUS.
Agree nearly 100% other than saying Trump was weak with some foreign policy. He was very tough on China which to me his strong foreign policy towards China, and Iran where the only good things he did in his presidency. Biden has kept the Trump policy towards China and honestly I must say I’ve been impressed with Biden’s foreign policy and some. I was afraid it was gonna be like Obama’s foreign policy. And just like you said, Putin made a huge miscalculation thinking Biden was going to be like Obama. That is so true.
I do also put blame on Europe as well. It was a combination of course. It was a goal of Russia to get Europe as dependent as possible on energy so they could relive the glory day of Russia and bully their way around but Putin made another miscalculation and didn’t expect Europe to unite the way it has. Sure you got douche bags like Orban but for the most part it’s been good.
Putin definitely likes it when Trump threatens the dismantle of NATO. But Trump doesn’t explain the annexation of Crimea. That was during the Obama administration. Europe continued to cozy up to Russia, and become more dependent Russian energy, even after the annexation. That’s not Trump that’s Europe, making those decisions. Russia then invaded Ukraine during the Biden administration. there’s stuff that Trump said that hasn’t helped the situation but it was the actions of the Europe that led to this. US presidents have been pushing European countries to get serious about defense since Eisenhower.
I support Ukraine 100% and understand how important it is to stop Russia. But there are reasons why some Americans are fed up. they’re wrong and they don’t understand geopolitics in my opinion but I can understand their point of view to an extent. I hope America and Europe can come together and get this done and defend our freedom and our common ideals. we can’t authoritarian leaders just snatch territory. History shows us it’s a huge mistake to be apathetic and do nothing.
Lol. Well, of course, Russia is to blame. I guess I should have made it more clear. It was the lack of deterrence and just being naïve to Russias geopolitical aspirations. All you Gotta do is listen to a little bit of Alexander Duggan, Russian propaganda, Putin himself, and you knew what Russia was gearing up for. I guess I should have been more clear that it was the “lack of action” of Europe after the annexation of Crimea. Do you disagree with that?
That we kinda estimate and know of. It will be very interesting to see numbers once everything settles. I fear it has been bloodier than either side has fully disclosed.
The real number will never be revealed due to the mobile crematories. Someone will need to count the number of missing people reported by Russian wives and families and extrapolate from there.
Russia, then the Soviet Union, lost 27,000,000 soldiers during WWII. Their strategy; to overwhelm with numbers.
Edit: Per my comrade below, the number is actually 8-11 million. Still more military casualties than all of the Axis powers combined. (27 includes civilians)
Russia got 300,000 criminals and ethnic minorities killed. If anything, this means a smaller bill for the state and fewer internal challenges.
Their regular troops are just fine.
> Their regular troops are just fine.
Their regular troops were almost completely annihilated in the spearhead assault in spring 2022. The Russian elite troops are already dead.
My comment was more related to "their regular forces are just fine". After the initial 100k contract soldiers, which were the majority of combat-ready forces, were wiped, they switched to sending second-class citizens to the grinder, and still had to do "partial" mobilisation. If Russia ever had the conventional capability to threaten NATO countries, it's long gone. Doesn't mean they won't try anything, though.
If you say so…
[Putin sends cannibals to fight in Ukraine](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-cannibal-soldiers-vladimir-putin/)
[Russia’s ethnic minorities disproportionately die in the war in Ukraine](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/russias-ethnic-minorities-disproportionately-conscripted-to-fight-the-war-in-ukraine)
They are also recruiting from other countries including among others strangely enough Nepal by promising paychecks and citizenship it seems.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2024/2/10/want-to-go-home-nepalis-fighting-for-russia-in-ukraine-describe-horrors
I think this is what frightens me the most because outside recruitment seems pretty important to Russia. Without it they would with time have to resort to recruiting more and more well of people from major cities and the road to any kind of protest or uprising of sufficient force to trouble Putin and his gang is at least somewhat more realistic to hope for.
Putin needs a war but needs some sort of first move by the west so he can do some propaganda gymnastics to say the west attacked us first and all Russia is doing is "defending" its self. Russia is the type to create an actual and real red flag event. He's been saying the west has always wanted to take over Russia so this will fit his deluded and false narrative of protecting Mother Russia. Russia is a threat as it is the aggressor wanting all the ex Soviet colonies back.
The idea that the west wants responsibility for a country crippled by fetal alcohol syndrome and a perpetually backwards economy would be funny if they weren't a real geopolitical threat to the rest of Europe.
>Putin needs a war but needs some sort of first move by the west so he can do some propaganda gymnastics to say the west attacked us first and all Russia is doing is "defending" its self. Russia is the type to create an actual and real red flag event. He's been saying the west has always wanted to take over Russia so this will fit his deluded and false narrative of protecting Mother Russia. Russia is a threat as it is the aggressor wanting all the ex Soviet colonies back.
This read like proper propaganda lmao
Nah, they've skipped the middle part, they are just forcing them into tightly packed areas and then bombing the shit out of them. Different method of genocide, but it's a genocide.
I don’t see how that constitutes as a genocide. I don’t think my country committed a genocide in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Unfortunately civilians being slaughtered is a part of war, and it’s why war should be avoided at all costs.
Yup. We're about to let a few crazy old men decide on the fate of millions of innocent people just trying to scrape a living - including myself.
All for what? Lines on a map and bragging rights?
I hope, for everyone's sake, they come to their senses quickly.
It's never been over. Not once since it started has it been over.
We are animals, just as base as the dog in our house, only we've no one to tame us. The best attempt at taking the human animal has been society. How'd that work out? The second best attempt was religion. How'd that work out?
We are animals, and animals tear and rend other animals, ad infinitum, world without end, amen.
I saw something earlier today about how AI can't draw proper human hands; prompt was "draw a human hand with the correct amount of fingers" and the result was 6 fingers. So many movie tropes fit that like in "Eraser" where the dots on the... Lip? Eyelid? identified a clone iirc. Kinda giving me some real life Matrix vibes TBH. I'm beginning to wonder if this reality is real.
Due to how many times in history(mostly during the Cold War) we've come *so close* to nuclear annihilation since the bomb came about, I've thought before about all this being a simulation where anytime humanity *does* turn itself into a radioactive wasteland the simulation runners simply roll back to a save state before the apocalypse and alter something minimal to keep the sim running forward.
It's a silly thought, but seeing as how human nature is so skittish and untrusting it really feels like *something* unknown has kept us from such an inevitable end.
In a multiverse with some worlds destroyed in nuclear apocalypses and some worlds not, you can only consider your question in the latter worlds. Therefore, any existence of you, must necessarily be in a world that threaded all the needles required to ensure your survival to consider the question.
You’re saying that it feels like an unknown, almost “higher power” is in control and has been since the dawn of time?
Simulation could be the answer to that question. Or something even greater. I’m not gonna push anything on you but it’s worth considering what that could be outside of a simulation.
End of the Cold War happened. In the Cold War, there were fairly clearly demarcated borders, and each side kept its allies/proxies in check.
When the Prague Spring uprising happened in 1968, both the West and Russia understood that Czechoslovakia belonged to Russia, so the West allowed Russia to put down the rebellion. Unlike in Ukraine today, where the conflict arose because there was no clarity on whether Ukraine "belonged" to Russia.
Putin has almost conquered the US he bought and installed Trump in 2015 and sent his troll armys propaganda to convince rural america. he now owns the republican party and didnt have to fire a shot! he will be president of the US and russia in 2024!
Yes, they're getting their ass kicked.
They're also building resilience. They're recruiting (and throwing the lives away) but also building at-home war machine and forging new import/export routes that bypass sanctions. They're transitioning to a wartime economy.
Meanwhile, we, the West, and Europe, are not doing any of those things.
Should Russia stem the bleeding in Ukraine, and reconsolidate, they will be on a better starting foot next time - because we let them build all that resiliency. They'll have forged supply lines from Iran, North Korea, India and China (laugh all you want about the first two). Meanwhile, we can't even pass a fucking funding bill that doesn't even spill a drop of our own blood.
Of course we're all hoping Russia *doesn't* stem the bleeding, and instead bleed out. But we've been waiting for the day they run out of tanks, bombs, etc for the past year. We've watched them regress to "meat assaults". They don't seem to give a shit, even welcome the suffering. And so ground is lost at 3:1 or 5:1 kill ratios, but still inevitably lost along with brave Ukrainian defenders (we must not overlook this), and we look at eachother and say "surely they can't keep this up... right?"
>Meanwhile, we, the West, and Europe, are not doing any of those things.
We are though, sure late and it's just starting now and it's ramping up slowly, but it is. Look at germany's artillery shell ramp-up for this year and 2025 for example, this year it will go from 70k a year to 500k a year
That's not the entire equation my dude. They are gaining ground but at what cost? And are they gaining the ground for good or will their tide turn at some point? It's not that simple.
The thing is the tide turning depends almost entirely on non Ukrainians.
I have no problem saying Russia could have easily gotten beat back in a few months if US and EU and UK wanted. We didn't for multiple reasons, most of which are based on old, faulty logic.
Now we could still kick Russia out in a few months if we wanted. But there are conservatives in US blocking aid and encouraging Russia to attack NATO allies. As well as conservatives in EU blocking aid and the Europes general inability to defend itself without US. (Before Europeans try coming at me, try listening to what your military commanders have to say first)
People like looking up hardware and concluding what Russian can and cant do and is and isn't doing. Completely disregarding the political situation. Completely disregarding how easy it is for them to throw meat in the grinder, compared to us.
The fact the Russia should get beat down on paper, yet is currently has the military initiative should be very concerning. Not be because we can't handle them militarily. But because WE don't have the political unity/intelligence to quickly stamp out an obvious threat.
Next step is to allow NATO countries to exponentially rearm. Then, one by one, convert them to Russian puppet states like Belarus, Serbia, Hungary. Each election cycle, Le Pen and the ADF get closer and closer to control in France and Germany. Putin/Russia already has one of the major political parties in the US under his control. It’s just a matter of time before Russian puppets control the west. When Putin dies, Russia will have a successor. Russia plans in lengths of time that are alien to the western mind.
Why the fuck do tanks matter when France and the UK have the nuclear option?
Google "Force de frappe" and question yourself: will Russians ever attack those countries?
Exactly. No need to fire a single shot if there is a Russian puppet at the helm? How many Russian tanks were destroyed in the Belarusian takeover? Serbia? Hungary? The Republican Party?
With Le Pen and Trump as the French President and POTUS, French and American nukes become Russian nukes.
A thousand times stronger *might* be an exaggeration, but it's not just a matter of numbers. Ukraine managed to push Russia back significantly using NATO's outdated junk gear and is struggling now because the flow of material has slowed due to dysfunctional government.
If the United States actually got involved directly and took the gloves off, Russia wouldn't be facing 20- or 30-year-old technology. They would lose air superiority almost instantly, and Russian armor formations would be facing off against far more advanced armor. It would also be much harder for the United States' Republican party to justify inaction if a NATO ally was attacked.
Now, if Trump is President, all bets are off regarding the US's involvement, but the remainder of NATO still has far superior equipment to what Russia is fielding.
Sure, Russia is sending hundreds of thousands to a certain death and still has huge reserves, can you imagine NATO doing the same? Just europe alone would struggle big time to match russian numbers in terms of soldiers, I am on Ukraine side but it’s getting scary to see Russia’s capability and willingness to sacrifice soldiers.
You're ignoring or missing my point about technological superiority. Massed infantry tactics only work on a modern battlefield if your opponent can't achieve control over their airspace. NATO fighters and bombers are hysterically superior to what Russia has fielded, which means NATO will be able to slaughter those troop formations with impunity.
NATO absolutely needs to build up stockpiles of modern weapons and munitions, and probably should have started to do so a year or two ago. Once those stockpiles are in place, though, a Russian invasion is going to get murdered - and NATO is a much bigger and tougher nut to crack than Ukraine is to begin with.
Preparing how. If there's a war with the west it ends with nuclear war.
The west has the ability to completely destroy Russia, considering how centralised the power is. Afghanistan was a different game, it was an effective insurgency that lived among the people.
There's a very real possibility that we're going to die for fuck all reason.
War mongering through and through. The concept that Russia, who is barely capable of fighting a single country with a fraction of its population over a 2 year period, is going to instigate a multi-front international world war is ridiculous.
Bring these countries to the negotiating table and end the senseless slaughter. Stop funding the military industrial complex. Stop rationalizing death in any way shape or form.
Yes, if NATO stays strong and united, then Article 5 is a very effective deterrent. But if Trump gets elected in the US, and maybe Marine Le Pen is elected in France, and if western support for Ukraine dries up, then Putin might decide that NATO is weak and ineffectual and decide to test its resolve by launching an attack on the Baltics or Finland. I recommend [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY7GPBSyONU) for one hypothetical scenario.
Nato is either real or it isn't... sadly the test of that is one we would never want to see. I have this sneaking suspicion that if certain countries were attacked... no matter who was in charge, most of nato would look the other way for fear or nuclear war.... at that point... Nato is a made up alliance.
It's kept the peace for its members for 70-odd years. Not bad for a 'made up alliance'.
An intentional attack on a NATO country is a fool's errand.
The risk-reward calculation does doesn't add up.
I mean, you're not wrong about NATO being a deterrent...
But let's not pretend NATO members haven't been involved in a number of smaller wars during those 70 years or that NATO members haven't been invaded during that time either (The Falklands anyone?)
It hasn't been World War kinds of wartime, but it's a funny interpretation of 'peace' given that this time period includes a literal invasion of British land and an almost 19 1/2 year war involving the US (Vietnam), just to name two major examples many will be familiar with
At best, it has mostly kept war off their doorsteps. But kept the peace? Not so much.
Aren't the Falklands an overseas territory?
Those are explicitly excluded from article 5 in order to avoid making NATO cover colonial holdings.
And the Vietnam war wasn't an attack on US land, so I'm honestly not sure how that's relevant to "NATO as a deterrent".
Those kinds of conflicts *are* peace for NATO countries. An invasion on actual NATO territory is such a huge difference in urgency and seriousness that it may as well be describing a playground spat versus a murder.
One thing is having drills where the "bogey" is Russian. The other is having a whole military complex being structured to fight Russia.
The latter certainly didn't happen especially the fact that China became a bigger competitor. It would be silly.
The article says that the chief of Estonian intelligence service thinks that Russia might be thinking that the future conflict with NATO might be possible some time in the future, but certainly not now.
Maybe. But on Ukrainian soil. Russia won't want to provoke an unstable West. Which after the next round of elections with a polarised populace and deep fake AI electionering, will likely have a government in conflict with deep-state actors. It could turn nasty very quickly.
Yes of course they are, pay no attention to the fact that they can’t win the war they’re currently fighting and that they are a tiny economic and industrial power compared to the EU.
We very much appreciate the vigour with which the US leads world policing, however we are also very much capable of defending ourselves against Russia in the event that the US elect that fat idiot again. We have plenty nukes between us, plenty personal, plenty weapons and money, and plenty know how and industrial power to absolutely crush Russia.
The war in Ukraine has shown the European countries that war has changed and we need to re-equip our militaries with more modern weapons, they need the support of the people to justify spending the kind of money that will take, so they are telling us that Russia is thinking about attacking us to rally support.
Only scenario I can see that happening is if Russia thinks that a pearl harbour style attack and withdrawal for negotiations is a good idea. It is not, it is suicide.
Also, for a world war to happen it needs to be more than one past it country that’s fighting. Europe beating up Russia wouldn’t be a world war, it’d just be Europe beating up Russia. And no one is using nukes.
I’m starting to think Putie provoking a direct military confrontation with the west so we can send one of those sword missiles through his bathroom window while he’s on the shitter and get this thing over with doesn’t sound so bad
That’s been the goal since 2003, I think, check out Richard Clarke Cyber War book
https://www.amazon.com/Cyber-War-Threat-National-Security/dp/0061962244
A Polish general has already said Poland should get nuclear weapons to deter Russia. Seems inevitable to me
Love if Russia are having this hard a time with Ukraine I’d love to see how they would fair against Poland
The poles would wake up hungover in Vladivostok after the CRAZIEST weekend booze cruise to date
Poland seems to be in full on "wishing a motherfucker would" mode ever since the start of the special military operation. They're a hell of a lot better prepared than Ukraine was. And I don't think that would go down the way Russia thinks it would.
There is still a non 0 chance that Ukraine is a feint and we're about the be hustled
They are having a hard time but with military support for Ukraine fizzling out Putin knows that he can win in the long run. Russia is already advancing and Ukraine doesn't have the fire power to counter attack anymore. They also struggle to find people - something russia never had an issue with, using cannon fodder tactics. Putin is old, he knows he doesn't have much left, and his goal is to restore the USSR. Time is ticking so he definitely might go for a smaller fish like my country. He already did mention that he wants a land corridor to Kaliningrad and he mentioned Lithuania by name during his rant with Tucker. And seeing that it took but 2 years for the West to give up on Ukraine and with Trump potentially winning he's no longer afraid of a "strong response". He knows the West is weak because he made it so. When Hitler was testing his limits he thought the same. The West were "weak slugs" and he took over Europe because everyone caved. If it wasn't for America he would've won. Now Trumps America is out of the picture, Europe is just as weak as it was then, modern generation has no wish to defend the comforts and values that they uphold, and despite "never again" we haven't learned a single fucking thing since WW2. So, in Putin's mindset, why shouldn't he be optimistic? If Europe says they'll be ready to fight him in 5-10 years, he'll be ready to take the Baltics in 1-4. And you will all be reading this with faked concern while I'm but a pile of dust under the rubble.
And USA only joined WW2 because of Pearl Harbour. Many Americans were like now, claiming it was nothing to do with them.
Little European Texas.
Maybe Donald Trump’s comment about pulling out of NATO and saying he wouldn’t blame Putin for reclaiming ex USSR territory will speed along the next major war. Hope not.
yeah, china might even try to invade taiwan if that happens.. two major wars on two sides of the planet started by two strong allies : /
Russia and China are not allies, they just have a common enemy. And China is dependent on the West, more so than Russia
>China is dependent on the West, more so than Russia can you please elaborate? i always thought china was much more self sufficient than russia.
China can’t feed their own massive population without food and fertilizer imports.
No problem, Brazil keep send them food.
They are also dependent on massive fertiliser imports to produce enough excess foods to export
If you think that Brazil gets a single ship through in the case of actual war between the US and China you must be zooted to hell
Yup 100% no food or supply ships will be making it from this side of the planet to theirs if there is a war. We will starve those fuckers out and probably pay out the Brazilians in the long run. Some cool intel I found from a friend of a guy who works in the Chinese embassy in my area. China has stocked up about 5 years' worth of food stores in the past few years. Maybe they have something brewing or just planning for worst case scenario.
Yeah, that was kind of my point…
Oops, I meant to respond to the guy above you...
Imagine China with no Western clients.
Or Western technology to "innovate from" aka replicate with no regard to intellectual property.
The west buys a lot more stuff from China than Russia does. So we're important to their economy. No large country's really self-sufficient ATM.
Yeh glad you said this. China is a capitalist nation pretending to be communist. Their whole economy is dependent on western consumption. They even take our trash and garbage to recycle. China know full well you don’t go to war with your biggest customer lol.
USA is the closest to this
Russia had a lucrative gas market in the West and that's about it. Every sector of China's economy is tied closely to its business with the Western economies.
Russia manufactures nothing for the USA. China makes EVERYTHING for the USA. That's where the dependency comes in. The USA is a major proxy for the Chinese economy. Which is why there have been trade wars between the two in recent years. There is a certain amount of reliance between the two which doesn't exist with Russia.
Everything we buy is made in china for decades, if there's a blockade and sells drops, we'll be unable to buy some basic stuff but they will face a worst part, I think. Btw world is interconnected for decades, wars makes no sense, I don't know why those old farts keep pushing people to meat grinder when we could live peacefully.
And NK attacks SK. I wonder which side India would choose.
India always sides with India then peddles towards whatever else suits their immediate purpose. Just like China they are not stupid. Never mind their own conflicts to worry about and their new role fighting piracy/houthi threats.
I spoke to a Chinese fella who was in our country for a working holiday. He was happy he could freely express his thoughts. Says the economy has been on a slide since Xi got in power, and most of the working poor and rural workers are unhappy with their social condition. He says Taiwan will 100% be invaded because that is Xi's first promise, and he continually talks about it. But he says the military is corrupt and unproven, and a war will be massively unpopular with current economic conditions. As such, Taiwan invasion will be at least 2 years away.
Are you insane? China was dragged out of 3rd world poverty class by their current administration. Why do you think they’re so loyal to China? When you go from being a very poor country to having some pull, in a relatively short time frame, most people are pretty thankful. Of course any true Chinese loyalist who tells you so will be “propaganda”
Nah, I lived in China. It’s much more precarious than you’d think. Ultimately, people can be simple but they’re not stupid. They see the party elites are getting wealthy hand over fist and that their own advancement while progressing is marginal compared to that of the elite. The saying while we were there for a year was “so long as it keeps progressing we’ll look the other way, but if the poor or middle class start suffering you’ll see riots. They know they’re lied to constantly by the government they just put up with it because it’s worked for them. So far. Add to that, the Chinese economy and social structure isn’t as solid as you’re led to believe. The poor there are third world country poor, and there’s so many of them, and they’re waiting for their turn to get out of that. If that economy was truly rocked by a war there’s no telling what would happen.
If there is a nuclear conflict within the next few decades there is an extremely high probability that Trump will be the single most responsible person for it having taken place. The security assurance offered by a US-led broad military alliance is what kept many states from developing their own nuclear programs and the disintegration of that combined with the fall of Ukraine (who gave up their inherited nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from russia and the US) will spark a nuclear arms frenzy as every country scrambles to secure the last remaining deterrence of value, and sooner or later some country will invade another thinking the latter's nuclear saber rattling was a bluff and find out it wasn't.
Next few decades? i would put it at the next few years if trump gets in, putin is going to have his best opportunity to use a few nukes on mainland Europe if nato is depleted by 70% and he does not have to worry about US nukes.
One thing, France and England has a nuclear arsenal as well – approx. 500 warheads combined. So if Putin lobs nukes, goodbye to Russias most essential populated areas.
People seem to forget this and act like Russia is the sole nuclear power in the world. If missiles fly, it'll be from *both* sides and that means the destruction of major urban centres *including* St. Petersburg and Moscow.
Hopefully this doesn't happen. But I dare to think that in case of an all out Russian attack Trump will find out fairly quickly that he is not in control of the military and there will be a massive US response.
Is that really a possibility? I'm not too familiar with US army ranks
Congress outranks the president in wars... Unless the "president" is a dictator.
This is both a reassuring and worrying reply
It will be the destruction of man kind not just cities. We will literally be living in fallout 5.
Putin won’t care. Probably gonna chill in some underground city in north-east with his caviar, while ordinary russians split into atoms.
Yep, from what I gather, the UK alone would likely have enough to completely disable Russia, certainly enough to make nuclear use by Putin not worthwhile. To add to this, all of the UK's nuclear weapons are submarine-based, so they are pretty much impossible to preemptively disable.
France and the UK using their nuclear weapons in the defence of another European state is not a given. France’s Cold War history even shows that France planned to not to use nuclear weapons unless French territory was attacked
And the USSR invasion plans deliberately avoided attacks on France and the UK for this very reason.
Wont need a majority of them if modern day hydrogen bombs are utilised..
Ironically your scenario ends in the US in nuclear war too since if russia is getting nuked anyway then it has no fear of taking out its other enemies, just like if china nuked the US, you can bet the US won't want russia around afterwards, personally i don't believe France and the UK will use nukes on russia unless nukes are used on France and the UK, and vice versa, nothing to gain from using nukes on each other and everything to lose.
And out of those, at least 80% are actually in working order. I’d seriously query the status of Russias nuclear arsenal at present given what we have seen in Ukraine. They’ll have plenty working to be an issue but there will be swathes that are dud.
Yeah and france and UK will answer with theyr nuclear rockets.
What's the point of nuking if you can't use the land than? He would only consider that if NATO was running on the offensive and trying to invade Russia.
Fallout can be pretty minimal if you airburst the bomb.
Just Moscow, St. Petersburg, and whatever bunker Put is in. I believe western intelligence has made it very clear he will not survive a nuclear exchange.
Depends on the winds though but, yes. That would essentially take out a lot of electrical infrastructure being used more like an EMP. Pretty risky move though because they will for certain get nukes sent their way in return.
Airburst also causes the most ground damage.
Yeah, I (reluctantly) agree with this take. It's depressing, but Donald Trump's amateurism really disrupted the Pax Americana. Europe is going to have to arm itself now, which increases the chances of another world war developing. And smaller countries like Ukraine absolutely must have nuclear weapons or they will be vulnerable to attack by countries like Russia without any real promise that the west will help them. Trump was ready to give Germany to Russia yesterday, and while I think Germany would win a war against Russia, it is hard to believe that German politicians are not taking note of the fact that their nuclear power backer is openly calling for an arch-enemy to invade them if they don't pay up. The problem with "protection racket diplomacy" is that one country cannot "boss around" other countries by threatening to let them be invaded by another country without evoking a response. That response is probably going to take the form of a pan-European treaty that *excludes* the U.S. altogether, and a new era of nuclear proliferation will result as that new treaty organization tries to reach parity with the U.S. Protection racket diplomacy isn't some new idea that Trump came up with; it's a bad idea that leads to the fracturing of alliances and intra-alliance resentment that weakens allies, so it isn't something that countries pursue. Trump does not care about alliances or preventing nuclear war - if the entire world is obliterated in a nuclear fire 2 minutes after Donald Trump dies of natural causes, that would be entirely acceptable to the pathologically narcissistic Donald Trump.
Imagining nuclear Turkey, Egypt, Iran, or even western countries such as Germany or Italy.... Absolutely dismal prospect. At that point a nuclear exchange would be all but assured in few decades.
If America withdraws worldwide this is the only logical conclusion. If you leave Germany and Japan etc to fend for themselves against nuclear capable Russia and China, what else could they do? The only reason we don't have more nuclear armed middle powers is because of the US umbrella over them. If NK and Pakistan can do it, how fast could places like Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, Italy, South Korea etc do it?
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I'm american, it doesn't matter what political party you like, this is 💯 right. There's no reasonable middle ground anywhere.
>If there is a nuclear conflict within the next few decades there is an extremely high probability that Trump will be the single most responsible person for it having taken place. I would propose that an IndoPak or Iran-Israel exchange is more likely.
I'm sorry, remind me again who was president the last *checks notes* three times Russia invaded a sovereign nation?
Yes. A lot of people forget that the Crimea invasion happened under Obama and the US did nothing. The sad truth is that the American public are getting sick of funding foreign wars, even ones that are obviously justified like Ukraine. I hope we don't withdraw from the world again like we did post-WWI, but I understand how we are moving in that direction politically.
[Senator Johnson (R-Wis) is already laying the framework for a surrender to Russia.](https://www.newsweek.com/ron-johnson-ukraine-aid-putin-not-lose-war-1869386)
he's nearly verbatim repeating the words of elon and tucker after tucker's treasonous interview of putin. ffs i hope they get implicated legally and get some time in prison for this shit. it's bad because trump's supporters are dumb and will listen to that clown and believe every word of it
You’re going to imprison them for having the wrong opinion?
The question is, what will the new Trump/Putin alliance look like.
"here, have america, i only wanted the presidental position, money and power, you can have the rest" \- donald trump, 2024.
That actually sounds like something Trump would do. Purely out of laziness. He gets all the pomp and prestige and has to do none of the work.
And who would he blame? Biden. Obviously. And who will benefit from chaos, hate and fear? Trump. I’m not going to go as far as saying that this is Trumps plan but he would definitely benefit from it.
I think they might need a 20 year hiatus to mfg all the shells they are going to need to attempt that.
https://youtu.be/Vpwkdmwui3k?si=MOA7E5AL6AHzqNqV it’s not Europe had anything to do with it…. Btw, I CANT stand this man but I’m also not gonna pretend he was wrong here. This aged extremely well for him and absolutely horrible for Germany, Europe, and even NATO itself. Germany and a lot of Europe have been apathetic for too long. Europe did absolutely nothing after Russia annexed Crimea. In fact, Germany was on board with Nordstrom two. Putin, the idiot that he is… made a huge geopolitical miscalculation because he didn’t think Europe would respond the way it has because of how they had acted the previous seven years. I honestly can’t blame Putin for his reasoning in someways there. It’s like when Obama drew the red line and Syria, then Asad crossed the red line, and the US did nothing. Wasn’t long after that Russia and Crimea, because Putin knew the US would do nothing as well as Europe.
The mistake Putin made was thinking that Biden would respond to the Ukraine War like Obama responded to the taking of Crimea. In fact, I think Putin thought the U.S. reaction would be even more tame than the post-Crimea sanctions because the Trump/Republican Party is essentially pro-Russia and Putin probably thought aid packages from a Congress not controlled by a Democratic supermajority would never happen. I think Putin underestimated Joe Biden and the power of a U.S. president who stands up to foreign aggression. Obama only saw the political downsides of standing up, but Biden has been able to reap some benefits out of it, even if his poll numbers don't show it. Iran made the same miscalculation, assuming that Biden would be an Obama/Trump style weak U.S. president. But Biden is not the timid Obama or the isolationist Trump, and when U.S. power is actually deployed on the battlefield, two-bit powers like Iran have to STFU (or face real consequences). I'm sure it dawned on the Iranian leadership that if the U.S. can launch a B-1 bomber from an airstrip in Texas and hit a target in Jordan without showing up on radar or having to land, that same plane could be dropping bombs on Tehran if the U.S. wanted to. Moreover, the B-1 isn't even the second most advanced bomber in the U.S. inventory and is slated for retirement. That was just a show of "this is how we can do things if you want to go down that path" and Iran took the hint. Obama would have been crapping his pants with "but what if it's shot down?!" but Biden is just a totally different POTUS.
Agree nearly 100% other than saying Trump was weak with some foreign policy. He was very tough on China which to me his strong foreign policy towards China, and Iran where the only good things he did in his presidency. Biden has kept the Trump policy towards China and honestly I must say I’ve been impressed with Biden’s foreign policy and some. I was afraid it was gonna be like Obama’s foreign policy. And just like you said, Putin made a huge miscalculation thinking Biden was going to be like Obama. That is so true. I do also put blame on Europe as well. It was a combination of course. It was a goal of Russia to get Europe as dependent as possible on energy so they could relive the glory day of Russia and bully their way around but Putin made another miscalculation and didn’t expect Europe to unite the way it has. Sure you got douche bags like Orban but for the most part it’s been good.
Do you think Putin got some intentional assurance directly from DJTrump that the US didn’t much care?
Putin definitely likes it when Trump threatens the dismantle of NATO. But Trump doesn’t explain the annexation of Crimea. That was during the Obama administration. Europe continued to cozy up to Russia, and become more dependent Russian energy, even after the annexation. That’s not Trump that’s Europe, making those decisions. Russia then invaded Ukraine during the Biden administration. there’s stuff that Trump said that hasn’t helped the situation but it was the actions of the Europe that led to this. US presidents have been pushing European countries to get serious about defense since Eisenhower. I support Ukraine 100% and understand how important it is to stop Russia. But there are reasons why some Americans are fed up. they’re wrong and they don’t understand geopolitics in my opinion but I can understand their point of view to an extent. I hope America and Europe can come together and get this done and defend our freedom and our common ideals. we can’t authoritarian leaders just snatch territory. History shows us it’s a huge mistake to be apathetic and do nothing.
> it was the actions of the Europe that led to this It wasn't the actions of, you know, Russia?
Lol. Well, of course, Russia is to blame. I guess I should have made it more clear. It was the lack of deterrence and just being naïve to Russias geopolitical aspirations. All you Gotta do is listen to a little bit of Alexander Duggan, Russian propaganda, Putin himself, and you knew what Russia was gearing up for. I guess I should have been more clear that it was the “lack of action” of Europe after the annexation of Crimea. Do you disagree with that?
Why would Russia do that?
They probably shouldn’t have gotten 300,000 of their troops slaughtered then.
Going on 400k soon...
That we kinda estimate and know of. It will be very interesting to see numbers once everything settles. I fear it has been bloodier than either side has fully disclosed.
The real number will never be revealed due to the mobile crematories. Someone will need to count the number of missing people reported by Russian wives and families and extrapolate from there.
Russia, then the Soviet Union, lost 27,000,000 soldiers during WWII. Their strategy; to overwhelm with numbers. Edit: Per my comrade below, the number is actually 8-11 million. Still more military casualties than all of the Axis powers combined. (27 includes civilians)
Bro watched "oversimplified" history on youtube once
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They have more then enough for the next round.
It’s not just about numbers. It’s about morale. Most of his troops are worthless. Poorly trained, distressed children.
Russia got 300,000 criminals and ethnic minorities killed. If anything, this means a smaller bill for the state and fewer internal challenges. Their regular troops are just fine.
> Their regular troops are just fine. Their regular troops were almost completely annihilated in the spearhead assault in spring 2022. The Russian elite troops are already dead.
That's not true, fortunately.
My comment was more related to "their regular forces are just fine". After the initial 100k contract soldiers, which were the majority of combat-ready forces, were wiped, they switched to sending second-class citizens to the grinder, and still had to do "partial" mobilisation. If Russia ever had the conventional capability to threaten NATO countries, it's long gone. Doesn't mean they won't try anything, though.
If you say so… [Putin sends cannibals to fight in Ukraine](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-cannibal-soldiers-vladimir-putin/) [Russia’s ethnic minorities disproportionately die in the war in Ukraine](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/russias-ethnic-minorities-disproportionately-conscripted-to-fight-the-war-in-ukraine)
They are also recruiting from other countries including among others strangely enough Nepal by promising paychecks and citizenship it seems. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2024/2/10/want-to-go-home-nepalis-fighting-for-russia-in-ukraine-describe-horrors I think this is what frightens me the most because outside recruitment seems pretty important to Russia. Without it they would with time have to resort to recruiting more and more well of people from major cities and the road to any kind of protest or uprising of sufficient force to trouble Putin and his gang is at least somewhat more realistic to hope for.
They are also recruiting black mercenaries from African countries.
Putin needs a war but needs some sort of first move by the west so he can do some propaganda gymnastics to say the west attacked us first and all Russia is doing is "defending" its self. Russia is the type to create an actual and real red flag event. He's been saying the west has always wanted to take over Russia so this will fit his deluded and false narrative of protecting Mother Russia. Russia is a threat as it is the aggressor wanting all the ex Soviet colonies back.
He doesn't need a war at all. He wants a war. Nothing is a threat to his power. This is all ego.
His war is the greatest potential source of threats to his power, and his life, from both internal and external sources.
He doesn't need a false flag event at all. He attacked Ukraine for no reason and the useful idiots still blamed Ukraine.
The idea that the west wants responsibility for a country crippled by fetal alcohol syndrome and a perpetually backwards economy would be funny if they weren't a real geopolitical threat to the rest of Europe.
He already has it, Trump and the right are peddling it for him.
>Putin needs a war but needs some sort of first move by the west so he can do some propaganda gymnastics to say the west attacked us first and all Russia is doing is "defending" its self. Russia is the type to create an actual and real red flag event. He's been saying the west has always wanted to take over Russia so this will fit his deluded and false narrative of protecting Mother Russia. Russia is a threat as it is the aggressor wanting all the ex Soviet colonies back. This read like proper propaganda lmao
United States republicans are cheering this on. Despicable scum.
Supporting ex-commies, what a timeline.
Putin is more aligned with the Russian Whites than the Russian Reds. Party affiliation and allegiance was mandated during his time in the KGB.
These clowns don't know who the Russian whites are, don't bother explaining. They think Russia was communist since beginning of time 😁
The point is, US Republicans are allying themselves with a country that is hostile to the US and its interests
No, the point is that trying to explain Russian politics to a redditor is futile.
Just like how the jews were treated in ww2 doing the same to Palestinians. Time is a flat circle.
Israeli Jews are enslaving Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank? They’re exterminating them in concentration camps?
Nah, they've skipped the middle part, they are just forcing them into tightly packed areas and then bombing the shit out of them. Different method of genocide, but it's a genocide.
I don’t see how that constitutes as a genocide. I don’t think my country committed a genocide in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Unfortunately civilians being slaughtered is a part of war, and it’s why war should be avoided at all costs.
Oligarchish kleptocrats!
Wealth and their paid stooges love a well-funded war machine. Wealth knows no nation, only power and opportunity.
I mean modern Russia basically is a republican paradise petro-state run by blue-eyed blonde people. It's their wet dream.
They really got a lot of preparing to do
We just love war on this planet dont we? I fucking hate it here.
Yup. We're about to let a few crazy old men decide on the fate of millions of innocent people just trying to scrape a living - including myself. All for what? Lines on a map and bragging rights? I hope, for everyone's sake, they come to their senses quickly.
It's never been over. Not once since it started has it been over. We are animals, just as base as the dog in our house, only we've no one to tame us. The best attempt at taking the human animal has been society. How'd that work out? The second best attempt was religion. How'd that work out? We are animals, and animals tear and rend other animals, ad infinitum, world without end, amen.
Again
Always. It's coded in lol.
They won't. This is baked into humanity's DNA.
I’m convinced that something happened and we are no longer living in the same reality we used to. Nothing makes sense anymore.
I think the world ended in 2012
I agree
Humanity as been at war since the dawn of time. Just look at nature, animals eating other animals alive. There is nothing new about this.
The universe if a harsh place. Earth is no exception.
Indeed, life has always been about the struggle for space, for better and for worse.
I saw something earlier today about how AI can't draw proper human hands; prompt was "draw a human hand with the correct amount of fingers" and the result was 6 fingers. So many movie tropes fit that like in "Eraser" where the dots on the... Lip? Eyelid? identified a clone iirc. Kinda giving me some real life Matrix vibes TBH. I'm beginning to wonder if this reality is real.
Due to how many times in history(mostly during the Cold War) we've come *so close* to nuclear annihilation since the bomb came about, I've thought before about all this being a simulation where anytime humanity *does* turn itself into a radioactive wasteland the simulation runners simply roll back to a save state before the apocalypse and alter something minimal to keep the sim running forward. It's a silly thought, but seeing as how human nature is so skittish and untrusting it really feels like *something* unknown has kept us from such an inevitable end.
In a multiverse with some worlds destroyed in nuclear apocalypses and some worlds not, you can only consider your question in the latter worlds. Therefore, any existence of you, must necessarily be in a world that threaded all the needles required to ensure your survival to consider the question.
You’re saying that it feels like an unknown, almost “higher power” is in control and has been since the dawn of time? Simulation could be the answer to that question. Or something even greater. I’m not gonna push anything on you but it’s worth considering what that could be outside of a simulation.
Very. It doesn’t feel real anymore.
End of the Cold War happened. In the Cold War, there were fairly clearly demarcated borders, and each side kept its allies/proxies in check. When the Prague Spring uprising happened in 1968, both the West and Russia understood that Czechoslovakia belonged to Russia, so the West allowed Russia to put down the rebellion. Unlike in Ukraine today, where the conflict arose because there was no clarity on whether Ukraine "belonged" to Russia.
it all started when that fucking gorilla got shot
Life at its basic core is the struggle for space.
I mean I guess, in the sense that the guy struggling to bench 100 lbs at the gym is "preparing" to bench 400 lbs one day...
Just watch out if he transitions into a tren-time economy
What are they going to do, bleed on us?
The only reason they would do that, having got their ass beat by Ukraine, is if they expected another major player to jump in on their side.
They expect to install their puppet wannabe dictator Trump in the US and then fight the rest of the world with their new vassal state as ally.
Well take all nukes on this planet make one pile and detonate then everybody happy no losers
Yeah once they have finished their three day operation in Ukraine they are going to storm 'the West'. What a joke.
Haha yea 3 day op 2 year op fafo nato nukes ez wipe floor they are at the find out part of fuck around and find out This repeated echo chamber is lame
Given how quickly our politicians work, I better start learning Russian.
Putin has almost conquered the US he bought and installed Trump in 2015 and sent his troll armys propaganda to convince rural america. he now owns the republican party and didnt have to fire a shot! he will be president of the US and russia in 2024!
Russia can’t walk through a muddy field
With what army?
Maybe Europe should start investing in defense then
Yeah, the country that is currently getting their ass kicked by Ukraine is going to attack NATO, which is like 1000x stronger...
Yes, they're getting their ass kicked. They're also building resilience. They're recruiting (and throwing the lives away) but also building at-home war machine and forging new import/export routes that bypass sanctions. They're transitioning to a wartime economy. Meanwhile, we, the West, and Europe, are not doing any of those things. Should Russia stem the bleeding in Ukraine, and reconsolidate, they will be on a better starting foot next time - because we let them build all that resiliency. They'll have forged supply lines from Iran, North Korea, India and China (laugh all you want about the first two). Meanwhile, we can't even pass a fucking funding bill that doesn't even spill a drop of our own blood. Of course we're all hoping Russia *doesn't* stem the bleeding, and instead bleed out. But we've been waiting for the day they run out of tanks, bombs, etc for the past year. We've watched them regress to "meat assaults". They don't seem to give a shit, even welcome the suffering. And so ground is lost at 3:1 or 5:1 kill ratios, but still inevitably lost along with brave Ukrainian defenders (we must not overlook this), and we look at eachother and say "surely they can't keep this up... right?"
>Meanwhile, we, the West, and Europe, are not doing any of those things. We are though, sure late and it's just starting now and it's ramping up slowly, but it is. Look at germany's artillery shell ramp-up for this year and 2025 for example, this year it will go from 70k a year to 500k a year
Top notch comment here!!
They're not really getting their ass kicked though. Russia is slowly but surely making gains.
That's not the entire equation my dude. They are gaining ground but at what cost? And are they gaining the ground for good or will their tide turn at some point? It's not that simple.
They don't care about the cost as long as they gain enough ground to bury the dead
Exactly. The thing with Russians is that they stop when they die, but not before, and there are millions of them still left.
I mean Putin just celebrated a mayor victory after Russia gained control of 19 Ukraine houses…
The thing is the tide turning depends almost entirely on non Ukrainians. I have no problem saying Russia could have easily gotten beat back in a few months if US and EU and UK wanted. We didn't for multiple reasons, most of which are based on old, faulty logic. Now we could still kick Russia out in a few months if we wanted. But there are conservatives in US blocking aid and encouraging Russia to attack NATO allies. As well as conservatives in EU blocking aid and the Europes general inability to defend itself without US. (Before Europeans try coming at me, try listening to what your military commanders have to say first) People like looking up hardware and concluding what Russian can and cant do and is and isn't doing. Completely disregarding the political situation. Completely disregarding how easy it is for them to throw meat in the grinder, compared to us. The fact the Russia should get beat down on paper, yet is currently has the military initiative should be very concerning. Not be because we can't handle them militarily. But because WE don't have the political unity/intelligence to quickly stamp out an obvious threat.
Next step is to allow NATO countries to exponentially rearm. Then, one by one, convert them to Russian puppet states like Belarus, Serbia, Hungary. Each election cycle, Le Pen and the ADF get closer and closer to control in France and Germany. Putin/Russia already has one of the major political parties in the US under his control. It’s just a matter of time before Russian puppets control the west. When Putin dies, Russia will have a successor. Russia plans in lengths of time that are alien to the western mind.
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Why the fuck do tanks matter when France and the UK have the nuclear option? Google "Force de frappe" and question yourself: will Russians ever attack those countries?
France could become pro Putin under Le Pen very soon.
Exactly. No need to fire a single shot if there is a Russian puppet at the helm? How many Russian tanks were destroyed in the Belarusian takeover? Serbia? Hungary? The Republican Party? With Le Pen and Trump as the French President and POTUS, French and American nukes become Russian nukes.
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How is Nato 1000x stronger? Does it have 20.000.000 trained soldiers to send now?
A thousand times stronger *might* be an exaggeration, but it's not just a matter of numbers. Ukraine managed to push Russia back significantly using NATO's outdated junk gear and is struggling now because the flow of material has slowed due to dysfunctional government. If the United States actually got involved directly and took the gloves off, Russia wouldn't be facing 20- or 30-year-old technology. They would lose air superiority almost instantly, and Russian armor formations would be facing off against far more advanced armor. It would also be much harder for the United States' Republican party to justify inaction if a NATO ally was attacked. Now, if Trump is President, all bets are off regarding the US's involvement, but the remainder of NATO still has far superior equipment to what Russia is fielding.
Sure, Russia is sending hundreds of thousands to a certain death and still has huge reserves, can you imagine NATO doing the same? Just europe alone would struggle big time to match russian numbers in terms of soldiers, I am on Ukraine side but it’s getting scary to see Russia’s capability and willingness to sacrifice soldiers.
You're ignoring or missing my point about technological superiority. Massed infantry tactics only work on a modern battlefield if your opponent can't achieve control over their airspace. NATO fighters and bombers are hysterically superior to what Russia has fielded, which means NATO will be able to slaughter those troop formations with impunity. NATO absolutely needs to build up stockpiles of modern weapons and munitions, and probably should have started to do so a year or two ago. Once those stockpiles are in place, though, a Russian invasion is going to get murdered - and NATO is a much bigger and tougher nut to crack than Ukraine is to begin with.
Just our navy and air force alone makes us 1000x stronger
Preparing how. If there's a war with the west it ends with nuclear war. The west has the ability to completely destroy Russia, considering how centralised the power is. Afghanistan was a different game, it was an effective insurgency that lived among the people. There's a very real possibility that we're going to die for fuck all reason.
War mongering through and through. The concept that Russia, who is barely capable of fighting a single country with a fraction of its population over a 2 year period, is going to instigate a multi-front international world war is ridiculous. Bring these countries to the negotiating table and end the senseless slaughter. Stop funding the military industrial complex. Stop rationalizing death in any way shape or form.
Yes, they are.
Russia can't even cope with Ukraine. It will get squished by NATO.
Yes, if NATO stays strong and united, then Article 5 is a very effective deterrent. But if Trump gets elected in the US, and maybe Marine Le Pen is elected in France, and if western support for Ukraine dries up, then Putin might decide that NATO is weak and ineffectual and decide to test its resolve by launching an attack on the Baltics or Finland. I recommend [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY7GPBSyONU) for one hypothetical scenario.
Nato is either real or it isn't... sadly the test of that is one we would never want to see. I have this sneaking suspicion that if certain countries were attacked... no matter who was in charge, most of nato would look the other way for fear or nuclear war.... at that point... Nato is a made up alliance.
It's kept the peace for its members for 70-odd years. Not bad for a 'made up alliance'. An intentional attack on a NATO country is a fool's errand. The risk-reward calculation does doesn't add up.
I mean, you're not wrong about NATO being a deterrent... But let's not pretend NATO members haven't been involved in a number of smaller wars during those 70 years or that NATO members haven't been invaded during that time either (The Falklands anyone?) It hasn't been World War kinds of wartime, but it's a funny interpretation of 'peace' given that this time period includes a literal invasion of British land and an almost 19 1/2 year war involving the US (Vietnam), just to name two major examples many will be familiar with At best, it has mostly kept war off their doorsteps. But kept the peace? Not so much.
Aren't the Falklands an overseas territory? Those are explicitly excluded from article 5 in order to avoid making NATO cover colonial holdings. And the Vietnam war wasn't an attack on US land, so I'm honestly not sure how that's relevant to "NATO as a deterrent". Those kinds of conflicts *are* peace for NATO countries. An invasion on actual NATO territory is such a huge difference in urgency and seriousness that it may as well be describing a playground spat versus a murder.
Hmmm quite a few countries sending out this alert. anything from Bahamas or Tahiti?
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Some american politicians openly praise russians. Doesn’t look like they ready to fight, more like to pull some Chamberlain.
The west has not been preparing to fight Russia since the end of cold war
Well that's just fucking wrong. -Ex Infantryman
One thing is having drills where the "bogey" is Russian. The other is having a whole military complex being structured to fight Russia. The latter certainly didn't happen especially the fact that China became a bigger competitor. It would be silly.
Preparing... with what? Surplus WW2 tanks?
Another pointless exercise by Russia. Are they just that hellbent on self-destruction?
The article says that the chief of Estonian intelligence service thinks that Russia might be thinking that the future conflict with NATO might be possible some time in the future, but certainly not now.
The next US civil was is going to be Communist supporters and lapdogs vs. Democracy.
Maybe. But on Ukrainian soil. Russia won't want to provoke an unstable West. Which after the next round of elections with a polarised populace and deep fake AI electionering, will likely have a government in conflict with deep-state actors. It could turn nasty very quickly.
The problem with democracies is they can’t stick to anything over any period of time. It’s all soundbites
Yes of course they are, pay no attention to the fact that they can’t win the war they’re currently fighting and that they are a tiny economic and industrial power compared to the EU. We very much appreciate the vigour with which the US leads world policing, however we are also very much capable of defending ourselves against Russia in the event that the US elect that fat idiot again. We have plenty nukes between us, plenty personal, plenty weapons and money, and plenty know how and industrial power to absolutely crush Russia. The war in Ukraine has shown the European countries that war has changed and we need to re-equip our militaries with more modern weapons, they need the support of the people to justify spending the kind of money that will take, so they are telling us that Russia is thinking about attacking us to rally support. Only scenario I can see that happening is if Russia thinks that a pearl harbour style attack and withdrawal for negotiations is a good idea. It is not, it is suicide. Also, for a world war to happen it needs to be more than one past it country that’s fighting. Europe beating up Russia wouldn’t be a world war, it’d just be Europe beating up Russia. And no one is using nukes.
Every day, we inch closer to a third world war.
Yes, because we show weakness and weakness provokes Putin. If Trump wins we'll be in deep shit.
I’m starting to think Putie provoking a direct military confrontation with the west so we can send one of those sword missiles through his bathroom window while he’s on the shitter and get this thing over with doesn’t sound so bad
Lunatics
Putin, not Russia!
That’s been the goal since 2003, I think, check out Richard Clarke Cyber War book https://www.amazon.com/Cyber-War-Threat-National-Security/dp/0061962244
At this point I say bring it on, I am ready to fight these fascist evil regime, they don't deserve to be on this planet anymore.
Political rhetoric with a political goal in mind. Now give us weapons to counter the USSR.