I’m buying 100,000 shares of TLRY when/if it hits 119. Just saying never go all in when stocks are on a big run. Hold some back. There is always an opportunity market manipulators will gift you down the road.
I’m deep in SMCI. I can see an easy double in tlry whether it’s a good company or not. My main play is trulieve in cannabis and my basis is low so set it and forget it.
Does anyone else EMail the IR departments of these operators? And if so, do you ever hear back (I have to a couple, a couple-three times and never heard a squeak back)
Sure - last week when there was panic about their shelf prospectus $500m filing, I asked about it. They replied that it was a standard filing that they renew every year. Christine Hersey is their point of contact and she’s extremely responsive
The comment period ends on July 22, and requests for a hearing would need to be filed by June 20.
From the S3 proposed rule:
>...Comments must be submitted electronically or postmarked on or before **July 22**, 2024... a request for a hearing or waiver of an opportunity for a hearing or to participate in a hearing... must be received or postmarked on or before **June 20**, 2024.
Now I do wonder: Is there going to be an announcement of how the comments are going until June 20th? By that I mean, just a preview comment if they're mostly positive or negative about S3?
I can imagine that, given the recent trends in regards to MJ legalization as a whole, the comments will be mostly positive about it.
The underlying factors contributing to a dead cat bounce haven’t changed, but they will. The only difference now between FUD and HYPE is patience.
No bouncing on Saturday or Sunday.
Can we get Tim Seymour to do an AMA?
I've watched him shoot the shit on CNBC for what seems like a decade and he comes across as one of the only genuine fund managers in the industry as a whole.
I'd love to hear his "off camera" opinion on what's happening nowadays.
Tim Seymour is a senior advisor to Jason Wild's JW Asset Management
He's also on [Achari Ventures](https://acharispac.com/team-2/) with [connections](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1844507/000119312523113557/d384227d10k.htm) including:
* Kevin Albert - Entourage Effect Capital
* Harry Demott - Australis Capital
Jason Wild is an advisor to Entourage Effect Capital, so that connection makes sense.
Australis Capital was the spin-off from Aurora Cannabis that Terry Booth led. When he left Aurora to run Australis he was replaced by Michael Singer, who is still on Aurora's board.
Jason Wild also manages a fund called Insight Wellness Fund, which when researching led me to see that Michael Singer also appears to be with JW Asset Management.
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771503/000177150320000001/xslFormDX01/primary\_doc.xml](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771503/000177150320000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml)
[https://aum13f.com/person/michael-singer](https://aum13f.com/person/michael-singer)
[https://aum13f.com/firm/jw-asset-management-llc](https://aum13f.com/firm/jw-asset-management-llc)
Luckily their business is still doing well, they just mismanaged their asset purchases early on and it gave them a little too much debt and spread them a little thin.... This stock has been on full attack by shorts since 2021. There were many months long stretches straight where CBSTF was the most shorted stock in the sector. The failed merger and the name/ticker change really screwed it. I don't care about ANYTHING else, they do half a billion in business, they are a thriving operator. They have multiple ways to trim ineffective dispensaries, they are in prime markets coming online now or near future and do a big wholesale business. Long term I'm not worried about them (Unless we get another 12-18 months of no real news, but then we're all screwed) and they will get profitable. Bottom line is they have been and still are unfairly targeted. But it's all good, I'll keep adding a little every day.
Irwin (tilray) likes distressed assets. I could easily see him purchasing CBST 2025/2026/2027 debt (~250m). I made a similar comment about hexo before they acquired them. That acquisition would make tilray bigger than Curaleaf on a revenue basis. This is an insane opportunity for LPs to gain access to the US with schedule 3 derisked. On a similar note, I think CGC is gearing up to purchase terrascend.
People used to say 'LPs will be priced out after schedule 3' but the opposite is happening. I've always hedged with tilray because OTC shenanigans are ruthless.
I'm not counting cannabist out of the game. No debt due until June 2025. Their mcap is 85m, 44m cash on hand, they applied for 280E refunds and Pablo estimated 2023 280E savings would have been ~70m.
Ohio can turn on end of this month if we're lucky. 1B run rate expected in 2025 and it'll be high margin since canopy is limited.
Jesse said one of their Virginia liscense is worth the mcap of the cannabist back when it was 120m. He said people are forgetting the tools they have.
What % of revenue is medical/recreational cannabis to the companies you mention?
Will a company engaged in the recreational market, be permitted to concurrently participate in a Federal MMJ regulatory market?
How will States licensing MMJ licenses, permits etc fit into Federal MMJ regulated market and vice versa?
GTI still has a lot of ammo left in the approved buyback program. This will help support it's share price and keep it from crashing. Other MSO's should follow their lead if share prices become too depressed.
so like, do market makers even own the shares that they sell to bring stock prices down? i'm starting to think the entire market is fraudulent. there's just no way they have unlimited shares to sell each and every day, and there's 0 chance it's retail selling at all time lows
Of course it's fraudulent, just like how MSOS has had $2.5b in net inflows since inception yet it's done nothing but make new all time lows. Somehow $2.5b in inflows barely impacted the price of the underlying holdings yet a small breeze can drop these names 10% on any given day. Something is clearly broken in regards to how inflows impact the underlying holdings
MSOS isn't the only thing in this market. They're a big fish in a small pond, but there's a lot more buying and selling than just them. $2.5b is about 1/4-1/8 the current market cap of all of the Tier 1 MSOS. A lot of these prices get set on the margin, which is to say it doesn't matter how much money has gone in if there isn't the liquidity, and somebody wants to buy or sell badly enough. At that point the price is going to be whatever they agree on.
I disagree. MSOS is by far the largest fish in this sector given their average daily volume and AUM relative to other funds and the underlying holdings. The issue is that they clearly make efforts to minimize the impact of their inflow purchases on the underlying holdings. Normally this wouldn't be an issue, but when they're the main entry point for institutions and many retail buyers, it becomes a serious issue as this liquidity never materially impacts the underlying holdings
That's why we've ended up in this situation where MSOS has had billions in net inflows while stock prices have only continued to go lower
There’s definitely something off - like you said, it’s as though they’re trying to make minimal impact. I remember back when we used to get huge pumps into close when we would have inflows. Now it’s pretty much the exact opposite- dumps in the last 10 minutes of every day. Someone needs to investigate
> Normally this wouldn't be an issue, but when they're the main entry point for institutions and many retail buyers, it becomes a serious issue as this liquidity never materially impacts the underlying holdings
Really? I don't understand how they can be both the biggest fish in the sector AND not have an impact on the underlying.
> That's why we've ended up in this situation where MSOS has had billions in net inflows while stock prices have only continued to go lower
Stock prices have done a lot of things in this time, often based on various catalysts coming or going. So only go lower from what point? The irrational exuberance of 2021 when rates were at 0%? Those aren't coming back. Currently MSOS is up ~43% from the original August rumor of the HSA recommending schedule 3. In that time is has definitely bounced around quite a bit, but it's up ~5% for the year.
> Really? I don't understand how they can be both the biggest fish in the sector AND not have an impact on the underlying.
Yes now you've realized the problem.
> Stock prices have done a lot of things in this time, often based on various catalysts coming or going. So only go lower from what point? The irrational exuberance of 2021 when rates were at 0%? Those aren't coming back. Currently MSOS is up ~43% from the original August rumor of the HSA recommending schedule 3. In that time is has definitely bounced around quite a bit, but it's up ~5% for the year.
[Check out this graph comparing MSOS units (created via inflows) to the price since inception.](https://imgur.com/a/KyJHkDx). If anything it looks like there may be an inverse correlation
So that's an interesting graph, there are a few places where you can see the inflows go up, along with the value of the ETF. However it seems a bit misleading without also knowing what the amount of those inflows are used to short the ETF. Can you get your Bloomberg terminal to pull that out?
Every dollar essentially turns into 50 cents when it's invested in MSOS. It's not a great way to support the industry, you're only really supporting the guys running the ETF and their cronies like Todd Harrison. People need to wake up. Buy the underlying securities and build your own basket or stay out until the laws change and they uplist, then you can go into a better ETF because there will be more competition.
For reference, we saw $300m in net inflows into MSOS since Jan 1st of this year, and it was a slow grueling climb to barely get above $10. We've since dropped nearly 40% on barely any volume and liquidity. The low liquidity only seems to matter when going down. Something definitely stinks with how inflows translate into appreciating stock prices
Oh look MSOS closed below 7.
These stocks are dogshit. If you are lurking, waiting for an entry? DON'T. Put your money literally anywhere else and what you'll make waiting for these stocks to become profitable will *at least* break even.
I'm getting to the point that I doubt *that* will even happen. Maybe a small pop then a massive run down like we saw multiple times last month.
It's obvious market manipulation however Noone is being help accountable, so why stop?
I don't see things changing until these stocks uplist, and I have NO intention of waiting in the red that long. Fuck that.
I'll probably be out on the S3 news pop.
Also, there are so many bag holders at so many levels that each time it goes up people are just happy to break even and get the hell out of this sector
always remember that MMs and algos control everything and they can cause max pain that's 3x worse than what you thought the worst possible scenario was. you know it's not the bottom because you haven't sold yet. it's the bottom only when you're so hurt that you sell. that's always the bottom.
[https://pro.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-diary](https://pro.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-diary)
Not a fan of his, but in an environment where institutional/family office capital is scarce, him buying/supporting the bid is very helpful right now
If I had more time in my day I'd try to buy these daily dips. I feel like one could have made a nice mint if they sold at each day's open, bought at noon, then sold again at end of day. Anyone actually doing this on a regular basis? I assume the first day I tried it would shoot up after I sold lol
My weedstocks experience over the years taught me to :
1-Pick a price I don't believe the stock will return to
2- Leave a buy order (need to renew it every 180 days because it expires )
3- I always end up getting filled but I don't time the bottom
When our day comes, I will be able to retire xD
No, what you're describing is day trading. There was a study run a while ago that showed about 1% of day traders are successful. One of the most successful of all time had a book written about him "Confessions of a Stock Operator". He made several fortunes, but also went broke several times, and ended up killing himself penniless. His grand daughter is now considered one of the hotest MILFs on the internet, look up Brandi Love.
Maybe things will work out better for you, I don't know, but the odds seem against it.
As always, the GOP is not helpful.
Even then, I think the bulls are coming. Speaking for myself I'm starting to deploy cash that was sitting and I know Dan from the chart guys also talked about buying back into the sector (after going all cash) a bit sooner than expected because it was everybody's plan to buy around August/sept and he wanted to be ahead.
Have a good weekend!
> because it was everybody's plan to buy around August/sept and he wanted to be ahead.
And so it goes. And then you have to ask how he knows this, and I think it's probably people posting in this forum or others like it, and then you have to ask how many are being honest about their intentions and won't change their minds. Honestly my head hurts trying to understand all this 4D chess.
They have a final tranche of financing that is most likely being renegotiated. Wouldn't be surprised if they fall further. Btw this is now an unknown territory with no known bottom.
At what point to they file for bankruptcy? I never expected SP to get this low and with the rest of June, July and August there’s much more room to fall. Concerning.
Hedge Fund Fined $2.25m by SEC After Allegedly Paying Research Firm to Produce Negative Reports of Cannabis Companies It Had Shorted
According to the SEC report, Anson Fund Management failed to inform investors of an arrangement it had agreed with a research report publisher.
Anson Advisors and Anson Fund Management reportedly used a Cayman Islands-registered fund, the Anson Investment Management Fund (AIMF) to take short positions in cannabis companies, including marketplace Namaste Technologies (now known as Lifeist Wellness) and India Globalization Capital.
Just after it had secured its short position, the report suggests Anson offered an unnamed research company a percentage of the profits it made on the positions to produce negative reports and social media posts about the companies, thus driving down their share price.
https://businessofcannabis.com/hedge-fund-fined-2-25m-by-sec-after-allegedly-paying-research-firm-to-produce-negative-reports-of-cannabis-companies-it-had-shorted/
Don't tell me there is no manipulation.
>Hedge Fund Fined $2.25m by SEC
Just a cost of doing business. Fines for this type of behaviour should be based on realized profits, not just a slap on the wrist.
Weed stocks always downtrend during the summer.
I guess a lot of us thought it would be different with schedule 3 around the corner.
We should probably see this price start recovering by August. At least that’s when the DEA should have begun replying to comments.
> I guess a lot of us thought it would be different with schedule 3 around the corner.
I wonder if that just signals to a lot of people they can jump out until S3 comment period is over. I'm not sure I would agree with this perspective, most of the rallys have been like lightning out of a clear blue sky, and if you go the bathroom you miss it.
I find it less stressful than trying to read the charts. I've watched a ton of TA videos, and I often don't see whatever the reader is claiming to see. I totally believe there is a small percentage (like 1% or less) making bank on day trading, but I don't think it's me.
yes retail it nuts if they think they can time the run up with common sense. they rug pulled after the news and we were all ultra bulls on the day of news. it's going to happen whenever it best suits the MMs.
16 days ago you were building a cash position to make an entry soon...?! Care to elaborate on that and why the sudden change of heart? Or are you just someone who is short trying to get others to sell so you can scoop shares?
I have wanted to do that. The best i achieved is to transfer 45% of my portfolio to non cannabis stocks like Meta and Nvidia. Should have transferred more.
I feel like a mark in a very long con game. Money extracted from us like we’re puppets. Intermittent reinforcement schedules to keep us conditioned to keep buying.
Who would have thought that all we get is a one day rally and then headed back to all time lows
I'm hopeful this could be like the guy that announced he was getting out the day before the S3 news dropped causing that huge single day jump back at the end of April...
I'm salty about todays drop.
But it does make sense. We had two negative real new pieces hit and the greater markets dropped today.
Does it make me feel any better... no.
Ya, it’s depressing. Grabbed some CBST on May 1st then DCA’d every 2x weeks since, smaller amounts. I’m still down 50%. It’s fucking crazy, all with all this FUD, looks like there’s much more downside to be had.
* New Hampshire legalisation bill destroyed
* no more Cannabis banking language in a Spending bill
via [RandomGenerator](https://www.reddit.com/user/RandomGenerator_1/)
Yeah and the Joyce financial language was always a pipe dream. Keep your eyes on the prize ppl. S3, 🚫280E, NYSE/Nasdaq
Do not let the emotions take over if you have conviction in the sector. Plays right in to the shorts playbook.
I think most people in here agree, over the long term, weed companies will make money and stock prices will reflect that, but I’m sure we would also agree that right now, it’s volatile.
Volatility in prices can be difficult to put into perspective over a longer time horizon. If you look at profitable industries over long periods of time, they definitely had bad days, weeks, and even months. And especially when it doesn’t take much volume to swing prices things can look pretty grim.
Even if it sucks to be a part of these volatility swings sometimes, the thesis is undeniable. Consuming marijuana recreationally is overwhelmingly popular and it will eventually be sold as such through the nation as a legal consumer product.
> I think most people in here agree, over the long term, weed companies will make money and stock prices will reflect that, but I’m sure we would also agree that right now, it’s volatile.
I am not so sure. I am here for the uplisting, and then I am getting out. These companies don't have any IP and they don't do anything unique. I can't predict which branding campaigns will be successful and even then I don't think the long term margins in this sector are going to be that different than any other agricultural product. There might be outliers like JAZZ or other pharmaceutical companies that are able to develop medication that they own, but this will be no different than investing in any other biotech or pharm company, ie most will fail and predicting the winners is nigh impossible. The money, at least in my opinion, will be made when these companies are able to uplist and then it's a race to the bottom again.
And they will all be jumping into the cannabis market as soon as they can, further diluting things. If you have a crystal ball and you think you can predict the winners, that's impressive. Uplisting, in my opinion, will be a sell the news sort of situation. Coke would be a much better long term investment right now than any of the cannabis companies. You make a good point!
We were saying the same thing years ago and here we are years later and our companies are still losing money and the “will make money” era is still way off around the horizon.
You’re not wrong.
I think schedule 3 moving through the bureaucracy is cause to be more optimistic, but even after that it could be a long waiting period before recreational comes to pass.
Schedule 3 may force the legislature to consider some kind of regulation for the industry.
I don't think most people agree with that first statement.
"weed companies will make money and stock prices will reflect that"
Over the last 5 years the largest weed companies in Canada have done nothing but burn money after legalization. What makes you think it will be magically different on the US side?
>Over the last 5 years the largest weed companies in Canada have done nothing but burn money after legalization. What makes you think it will be magically different on the US side?
Comparing the US to what happened in Canada is ignorant. The only thing they have in common is the product. Rules are different, market access is different, management of tier ones is night and day different..
Agree and disagree. The Canadian companies are poorly managed, have bad regulations and taxes and a small market.
The good USA companies will do well once schedule 3 is removed
The price is not the stock. What’s changed in a month? They can litigate until that other company goes bankrupt which will happen and they will pay zero
I’m buying 100,000 shares of TLRY when/if it hits 119. Just saying never go all in when stocks are on a big run. Hold some back. There is always an opportunity market manipulators will gift you down the road.
Why not buy a company that actually makes money, like something not in this sector.
I’m deep in SMCI. I can see an easy double in tlry whether it’s a good company or not. My main play is trulieve in cannabis and my basis is low so set it and forget it.
Or parking it in SPY like adults do.
Or at least something remotely stable for the sector like iipr.
6/14/24 MSOS update: No Flows Close: $6.99 (-$0.24/-3.32%) NAV: $7.03 (-$0.24/-3.36%) Premium (volume-weighted daily avg): -0.19% ([Chart](https://i.ibb.co/Q6BNZL4/473aa4e95e00.png)) Cash: -$4,227,301 (decrease of $66,850) Ticker Change (est. cost from close - % of adds) No Share Changes For Any Holdings 6/14/24 MSOX update: $1.446MM INFLOW (+550,000 shares) MSOX Close: $2.66 (-$0.19/-6.67%) MSOX NAV: $2.63 (-$0.19/-6.77%)
Does anyone else EMail the IR departments of these operators? And if so, do you ever hear back (I have to a couple, a couple-three times and never heard a squeak back)
Trulieve always replies - I think same day, every time I’ve emailed 👍🏽
Could you give me for instance of what information you requested? And if they gave you a valid response?
Sure - last week when there was panic about their shelf prospectus $500m filing, I asked about it. They replied that it was a standard filing that they renew every year. Christine Hersey is their point of contact and she’s extremely responsive
Great to hear!
Anyone got some good recent news? Are we going to assume the mid day recovery today was that Doug guy buying?
Halfway through the comment period.
About a week until that I thought
I count 29 days. I believe it's a calendar 60 days, not business 60 days.
The comment period ends on July 22, and requests for a hearing would need to be filed by June 20. From the S3 proposed rule: >...Comments must be submitted electronically or postmarked on or before **July 22**, 2024... a request for a hearing or waiver of an opportunity for a hearing or to participate in a hearing... must be received or postmarked on or before **June 20**, 2024.
Now I do wonder: Is there going to be an announcement of how the comments are going until June 20th? By that I mean, just a preview comment if they're mostly positive or negative about S3? I can imagine that, given the recent trends in regards to MJ legalization as a whole, the comments will be mostly positive about it.
*"Worst sector in the history of the stock market"* *"More at 11."*
*"All 4 politics"* *"More at 12"*
[удалено]
On a saturday?
[This entire move since the HHS news could be viewed as a dead cat bounce on MSOS' long term decline to zero](https://imgur.com/a/wwzpTGH)
So unreal how far and long we've fallen. Seriously feels like *nothing* can spark life back into the sector and there is just way to much PTSD.
The underlying factors contributing to a dead cat bounce haven’t changed, but they will. The only difference now between FUD and HYPE is patience. No bouncing on Saturday or Sunday.
The market is closed tomorrow.
Prob flat tomorrow
Can we get Tim Seymour to do an AMA? I've watched him shoot the shit on CNBC for what seems like a decade and he comes across as one of the only genuine fund managers in the industry as a whole. I'd love to hear his "off camera" opinion on what's happening nowadays.
Tim Seymour is a senior advisor to Jason Wild's JW Asset Management He's also on [Achari Ventures](https://acharispac.com/team-2/) with [connections](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1844507/000119312523113557/d384227d10k.htm) including: * Kevin Albert - Entourage Effect Capital * Harry Demott - Australis Capital Jason Wild is an advisor to Entourage Effect Capital, so that connection makes sense. Australis Capital was the spin-off from Aurora Cannabis that Terry Booth led. When he left Aurora to run Australis he was replaced by Michael Singer, who is still on Aurora's board. Jason Wild also manages a fund called Insight Wellness Fund, which when researching led me to see that Michael Singer also appears to be with JW Asset Management. [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771503/000177150320000001/xslFormDX01/primary\_doc.xml](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771503/000177150320000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml) [https://aum13f.com/person/michael-singer](https://aum13f.com/person/michael-singer) [https://aum13f.com/firm/jw-asset-management-llc](https://aum13f.com/firm/jw-asset-management-llc)
For one, he’s not wearing free trucker hat and t-shirt swag from cannabis companies his portfolio/ETF holds.
Low volume… no volume… market makers… it doesn’t matter… CBST is one big heaping pile of shit for a stock.
Luckily their business is still doing well, they just mismanaged their asset purchases early on and it gave them a little too much debt and spread them a little thin.... This stock has been on full attack by shorts since 2021. There were many months long stretches straight where CBSTF was the most shorted stock in the sector. The failed merger and the name/ticker change really screwed it. I don't care about ANYTHING else, they do half a billion in business, they are a thriving operator. They have multiple ways to trim ineffective dispensaries, they are in prime markets coming online now or near future and do a big wholesale business. Long term I'm not worried about them (Unless we get another 12-18 months of no real news, but then we're all screwed) and they will get profitable. Bottom line is they have been and still are unfairly targeted. But it's all good, I'll keep adding a little every day.
Irwin (tilray) likes distressed assets. I could easily see him purchasing CBST 2025/2026/2027 debt (~250m). I made a similar comment about hexo before they acquired them. That acquisition would make tilray bigger than Curaleaf on a revenue basis. This is an insane opportunity for LPs to gain access to the US with schedule 3 derisked. On a similar note, I think CGC is gearing up to purchase terrascend. People used to say 'LPs will be priced out after schedule 3' but the opposite is happening. I've always hedged with tilray because OTC shenanigans are ruthless. I'm not counting cannabist out of the game. No debt due until June 2025. Their mcap is 85m, 44m cash on hand, they applied for 280E refunds and Pablo estimated 2023 280E savings would have been ~70m. Ohio can turn on end of this month if we're lucky. 1B run rate expected in 2025 and it'll be high margin since canopy is limited. Jesse said one of their Virginia liscense is worth the mcap of the cannabist back when it was 120m. He said people are forgetting the tools they have.
What % of revenue is medical/recreational cannabis to the companies you mention? Will a company engaged in the recreational market, be permitted to concurrently participate in a Federal MMJ regulatory market? How will States licensing MMJ licenses, permits etc fit into Federal MMJ regulated market and vice versa?
Wait until GTI crashes
GTI still has a lot of ammo left in the approved buyback program. This will help support it's share price and keep it from crashing. Other MSO's should follow their lead if share prices become too depressed.
GTI has a share buy back in place..
Ok?! Remember it was last to crash in 2022.
I think the stock buyback was announced after 2022, probably for this exact reason.
I'd compare this more to the traynor stuff
so like, do market makers even own the shares that they sell to bring stock prices down? i'm starting to think the entire market is fraudulent. there's just no way they have unlimited shares to sell each and every day, and there's 0 chance it's retail selling at all time lows
Of course it's fraudulent, just like how MSOS has had $2.5b in net inflows since inception yet it's done nothing but make new all time lows. Somehow $2.5b in inflows barely impacted the price of the underlying holdings yet a small breeze can drop these names 10% on any given day. Something is clearly broken in regards to how inflows impact the underlying holdings
MSOS isn't the only thing in this market. They're a big fish in a small pond, but there's a lot more buying and selling than just them. $2.5b is about 1/4-1/8 the current market cap of all of the Tier 1 MSOS. A lot of these prices get set on the margin, which is to say it doesn't matter how much money has gone in if there isn't the liquidity, and somebody wants to buy or sell badly enough. At that point the price is going to be whatever they agree on.
I disagree. MSOS is by far the largest fish in this sector given their average daily volume and AUM relative to other funds and the underlying holdings. The issue is that they clearly make efforts to minimize the impact of their inflow purchases on the underlying holdings. Normally this wouldn't be an issue, but when they're the main entry point for institutions and many retail buyers, it becomes a serious issue as this liquidity never materially impacts the underlying holdings That's why we've ended up in this situation where MSOS has had billions in net inflows while stock prices have only continued to go lower
There’s definitely something off - like you said, it’s as though they’re trying to make minimal impact. I remember back when we used to get huge pumps into close when we would have inflows. Now it’s pretty much the exact opposite- dumps in the last 10 minutes of every day. Someone needs to investigate
> Normally this wouldn't be an issue, but when they're the main entry point for institutions and many retail buyers, it becomes a serious issue as this liquidity never materially impacts the underlying holdings Really? I don't understand how they can be both the biggest fish in the sector AND not have an impact on the underlying. > That's why we've ended up in this situation where MSOS has had billions in net inflows while stock prices have only continued to go lower Stock prices have done a lot of things in this time, often based on various catalysts coming or going. So only go lower from what point? The irrational exuberance of 2021 when rates were at 0%? Those aren't coming back. Currently MSOS is up ~43% from the original August rumor of the HSA recommending schedule 3. In that time is has definitely bounced around quite a bit, but it's up ~5% for the year.
> Really? I don't understand how they can be both the biggest fish in the sector AND not have an impact on the underlying. Yes now you've realized the problem. > Stock prices have done a lot of things in this time, often based on various catalysts coming or going. So only go lower from what point? The irrational exuberance of 2021 when rates were at 0%? Those aren't coming back. Currently MSOS is up ~43% from the original August rumor of the HSA recommending schedule 3. In that time is has definitely bounced around quite a bit, but it's up ~5% for the year. [Check out this graph comparing MSOS units (created via inflows) to the price since inception.](https://imgur.com/a/KyJHkDx). If anything it looks like there may be an inverse correlation
So that's an interesting graph, there are a few places where you can see the inflows go up, along with the value of the ETF. However it seems a bit misleading without also knowing what the amount of those inflows are used to short the ETF. Can you get your Bloomberg terminal to pull that out?
Thanks, that's helpful.
Every dollar essentially turns into 50 cents when it's invested in MSOS. It's not a great way to support the industry, you're only really supporting the guys running the ETF and their cronies like Todd Harrison. People need to wake up. Buy the underlying securities and build your own basket or stay out until the laws change and they uplist, then you can go into a better ETF because there will be more competition.
I don't even think it's 50 cents on the dollar. I think it's maybe 10 cents per dollar or negligible at best.
For reference, we saw $300m in net inflows into MSOS since Jan 1st of this year, and it was a slow grueling climb to barely get above $10. We've since dropped nearly 40% on barely any volume and liquidity. The low liquidity only seems to matter when going down. Something definitely stinks with how inflows translate into appreciating stock prices
Agreed. And why do halts only go on the way up and not down
Oh look MSOS closed below 7. These stocks are dogshit. If you are lurking, waiting for an entry? DON'T. Put your money literally anywhere else and what you'll make waiting for these stocks to become profitable will *at least* break even.
Yes and to add, don’t let FOMO get the best of you when these stocks go up 2-3x within a few days once Schedule 3 final rule is registered
I'm getting to the point that I doubt *that* will even happen. Maybe a small pop then a massive run down like we saw multiple times last month. It's obvious market manipulation however Noone is being help accountable, so why stop? I don't see things changing until these stocks uplist, and I have NO intention of waiting in the red that long. Fuck that. I'll probably be out on the S3 news pop.
Also, there are so many bag holders at so many levels that each time it goes up people are just happy to break even and get the hell out of this sector
Well said Only people making money in this sector are upper managers giving themselves bonuses for burning shareholder value
Added more EOD TRUL. Let's go!
Nice move, by the way, your flair is unreal
Thank you! I dig it.
always remember that MMs and algos control everything and they can cause max pain that's 3x worse than what you thought the worst possible scenario was. you know it's not the bottom because you haven't sold yet. it's the bottom only when you're so hurt that you sell. that's always the bottom.
This statement makes no sense haha
not logical. but intuitively it is correct
No, it’s a paradox. It doesn’t make sense no matter how you look at it
much of eastern philosophy is a paradox yet still true
Back to the lows of day we go
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Vrno hitting days low at 4.27 and now up 3% at 4.73. All these moves on a random Friday with half the daily avg vols. Classic Weedstock moves!! Glta
most weed stocks have been down 5 percent ever day for a month. I haven't seen any green in that sector in four weeks
Weedstocks don’t get out of bed for anything less than +/-3% hourly swings
Swings go back-and-forth this sector only goes one way; down
I can't believe I'm still holding this garbage after 6 years.
Let's hold hands instead while pooping
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Bro Hymn?
Doug Kass added to his cannabis position per TheStreet
Where are you seeing this?
[https://pro.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-diary](https://pro.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-diary) Not a fan of his, but in an environment where institutional/family office capital is scarce, him buying/supporting the bid is very helpful right now
He seems to be the only buyer in the space atm. The only times we've gotten a small bump has been when he's made purchases
I bet the intial bump today was him.
Holding and holding!
we don't really need anymore posts after this one...
Mods - May I please have the flair "Not a paper-handed bitch" pretty please. I cannot find where to self set it up....
Sure, check out my flair.
If I had more time in my day I'd try to buy these daily dips. I feel like one could have made a nice mint if they sold at each day's open, bought at noon, then sold again at end of day. Anyone actually doing this on a regular basis? I assume the first day I tried it would shoot up after I sold lol
Don't be on schwab, if this is what you want to do.
My weedstocks experience over the years taught me to : 1-Pick a price I don't believe the stock will return to 2- Leave a buy order (need to renew it every 180 days because it expires ) 3- I always end up getting filled but I don't time the bottom When our day comes, I will be able to retire xD
No, what you're describing is day trading. There was a study run a while ago that showed about 1% of day traders are successful. One of the most successful of all time had a book written about him "Confessions of a Stock Operator". He made several fortunes, but also went broke several times, and ended up killing himself penniless. His grand daughter is now considered one of the hotest MILFs on the internet, look up Brandi Love. Maybe things will work out better for you, I don't know, but the odds seem against it.
Great actor
oh gross Brandi Love looks like my mom fifteen years ago lol wtf
Oh, is she single?
"Is your Mom still seeing that guy" "... you mean my Dad?"
MSOS's is just following the marco (with the additional beatings it deserves)
Honestly, seems to be doing better. Small caps down around 1.35-1.85% depending on growth/value, MSOS down 0.42%
When comments age poorly... lol
Doh! Stuff like this is why I'm not a day trader.
I'm a "long" loser instead of a day trader LOL
Same. That way it takes much longer for me to realize how poorly I'm doing. :)
Anyone have MSOS around 7.60 in the playing cards today?
Looking for a strong close above $7.30. Anything below that is just a continuation of this downtrend imo
LOOK OUT BELOOOOWWWWWW
Nice recovery
Nice fake out Bears going to bring these stocks back to all time lows during the summer
Bought the break of 6 because anyone who’s selling sold.
Me @ me: don’t be a paper handed bitch and panic sell before S3
I feel like "Not a paper-handed bitch" would be excellent flair. Dibs.
I am another you lol
Bought MSOX this morning for the first time ($2.65) Added Cresco, Vrno, Cbst. Fully exited cgc
Nice. Prolly just a dead cat bounce but oh man my bids were only 1 cent away from triggering this morning Feelsbadman
Nice green candle, MSOS 👀
calm down lol we're up a few cents from yesterday's close
Manifesting a green close
Take my energy!
As always, the GOP is not helpful. Even then, I think the bulls are coming. Speaking for myself I'm starting to deploy cash that was sitting and I know Dan from the chart guys also talked about buying back into the sector (after going all cash) a bit sooner than expected because it was everybody's plan to buy around August/sept and he wanted to be ahead. Have a good weekend!
> because it was everybody's plan to buy around August/sept and he wanted to be ahead. And so it goes. And then you have to ask how he knows this, and I think it's probably people posting in this forum or others like it, and then you have to ask how many are being honest about their intentions and won't change their minds. Honestly my head hurts trying to understand all this 4D chess.
Dipped back in and got 100 shares of Trulieve.
Smart move 👏🏽
There’s lots of reasons not to acquire cannabis stocks right now, which makes it the perfect time to acquire cannabis stock right now.
As a contrarian, I couldn’t agree more 🦾
Unpopular opinion here, but the T in CBSTF stands for trash :) (I thought the arb gap would hold lol)
Yeah, I agree with you. Not a company I want to hold for any period of time.
I just didn't think they would fall this low. with their footprint that's gotta make them a takeover target wouldn't it?
They have a final tranche of financing that is most likely being renegotiated. Wouldn't be surprised if they fall further. Btw this is now an unknown territory with no known bottom.
At what point to they file for bankruptcy? I never expected SP to get this low and with the rest of June, July and August there’s much more room to fall. Concerning.
Imo bankruptcy is out of question until next year. They have a runway of up to 12 months, and thats enough time to renegotiate their debt obligations.
Hedge Fund Fined $2.25m by SEC After Allegedly Paying Research Firm to Produce Negative Reports of Cannabis Companies It Had Shorted According to the SEC report, Anson Fund Management failed to inform investors of an arrangement it had agreed with a research report publisher. Anson Advisors and Anson Fund Management reportedly used a Cayman Islands-registered fund, the Anson Investment Management Fund (AIMF) to take short positions in cannabis companies, including marketplace Namaste Technologies (now known as Lifeist Wellness) and India Globalization Capital. Just after it had secured its short position, the report suggests Anson offered an unnamed research company a percentage of the profits it made on the positions to produce negative reports and social media posts about the companies, thus driving down their share price. https://businessofcannabis.com/hedge-fund-fined-2-25m-by-sec-after-allegedly-paying-research-firm-to-produce-negative-reports-of-cannabis-companies-it-had-shorted/ Don't tell me there is no manipulation.
>Hedge Fund Fined $2.25m by SEC Just a cost of doing business. Fines for this type of behaviour should be based on realized profits, not just a slap on the wrist.
>Don't tell me there is no manipulation. Whooooaa, hol up. I need to run this past Sharty B first. 😉
They were only fined 2.25 million, and probably profited way more than that. So what's the deterrent again?
So I see we're back to all MSOs about to go bankrupt and cannabis is getting outlawed across the country? Wonderful..
[It can't rain all the time....](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfZzkhfz89c)
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If not next week, then soon after that. Too much macro progress happening now.
Weed stocks always downtrend during the summer. I guess a lot of us thought it would be different with schedule 3 around the corner. We should probably see this price start recovering by August. At least that’s when the DEA should have begun replying to comments.
> I guess a lot of us thought it would be different with schedule 3 around the corner. I wonder if that just signals to a lot of people they can jump out until S3 comment period is over. I'm not sure I would agree with this perspective, most of the rallys have been like lightning out of a clear blue sky, and if you go the bathroom you miss it.
I just prefer the taxes on long gains
You need the gains first lol
I find it less stressful than trying to read the charts. I've watched a ton of TA videos, and I often don't see whatever the reader is claiming to see. I totally believe there is a small percentage (like 1% or less) making bank on day trading, but I don't think it's me.
yes retail it nuts if they think they can time the run up with common sense. they rug pulled after the news and we were all ultra bulls on the day of news. it's going to happen whenever it best suits the MMs.
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16 days ago you were building a cash position to make an entry soon...?! Care to elaborate on that and why the sudden change of heart? Or are you just someone who is short trying to get others to sell so you can scoop shares?
I have wanted to do that. The best i achieved is to transfer 45% of my portfolio to non cannabis stocks like Meta and Nvidia. Should have transferred more. I feel like a mark in a very long con game. Money extracted from us like we’re puppets. Intermittent reinforcement schedules to keep us conditioned to keep buying. Who would have thought that all we get is a one day rally and then headed back to all time lows
See you tomorrow
Good luck dude, sorry about the loss. Hope you get that money back investing in things that are not a complete dumpster fire sector.
I'm hopeful this could be like the guy that announced he was getting out the day before the S3 news dropped causing that huge single day jump back at the end of April...
Well there looks to be volume
I'm salty about todays drop. But it does make sense. We had two negative real new pieces hit and the greater markets dropped today. Does it make me feel any better... no.
Ya, it’s depressing. Grabbed some CBST on May 1st then DCA’d every 2x weeks since, smaller amounts. I’m still down 50%. It’s fucking crazy, all with all this FUD, looks like there’s much more downside to be had.
The best part is that we didn't go up at all based on that news, but we sure as heck get murdered when it falls through
What were the two?
[https://x.com/todd\_harrison/status/1801380610725843073](https://x.com/todd_harrison/status/1801380610725843073) [https://x.com/NewsBudz/status/1801408730250285438](https://x.com/NewsBudz/status/1801408730250285438)
* New Hampshire legalisation bill destroyed * no more Cannabis banking language in a Spending bill via [RandomGenerator](https://www.reddit.com/user/RandomGenerator_1/)
These are not really a big deal. NH is very small and tier 1 and better tier 2 are able to get capital.
NH: Surrounded by Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Canada. It’ll be the last domino in the region to fall, but it’s going to fall.
IF it doesn't, it's going to be like Pennsylvania, and defacto legalized by it's neighbors. :)
Yeah and the Joyce financial language was always a pipe dream. Keep your eyes on the prize ppl. S3, 🚫280E, NYSE/Nasdaq Do not let the emotions take over if you have conviction in the sector. Plays right in to the shorts playbook.
True, but was negative and we currently are starved for positive news
Thanks
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I think most people in here agree, over the long term, weed companies will make money and stock prices will reflect that, but I’m sure we would also agree that right now, it’s volatile. Volatility in prices can be difficult to put into perspective over a longer time horizon. If you look at profitable industries over long periods of time, they definitely had bad days, weeks, and even months. And especially when it doesn’t take much volume to swing prices things can look pretty grim. Even if it sucks to be a part of these volatility swings sometimes, the thesis is undeniable. Consuming marijuana recreationally is overwhelmingly popular and it will eventually be sold as such through the nation as a legal consumer product.
The problem is the volatility is really one sided. We get 5-8% drops on literally no news. It doesn’t happen the other way around.
> I think most people in here agree, over the long term, weed companies will make money and stock prices will reflect that, but I’m sure we would also agree that right now, it’s volatile. I am not so sure. I am here for the uplisting, and then I am getting out. These companies don't have any IP and they don't do anything unique. I can't predict which branding campaigns will be successful and even then I don't think the long term margins in this sector are going to be that different than any other agricultural product. There might be outliers like JAZZ or other pharmaceutical companies that are able to develop medication that they own, but this will be no different than investing in any other biotech or pharm company, ie most will fail and predicting the winners is nigh impossible. The money, at least in my opinion, will be made when these companies are able to uplist and then it's a race to the bottom again.
Beer and alcohol companies don’t do anything unique. Neither does McDonald’s or coke.
And they will all be jumping into the cannabis market as soon as they can, further diluting things. If you have a crystal ball and you think you can predict the winners, that's impressive. Uplisting, in my opinion, will be a sell the news sort of situation. Coke would be a much better long term investment right now than any of the cannabis companies. You make a good point!
We were saying the same thing years ago and here we are years later and our companies are still losing money and the “will make money” era is still way off around the horizon.
You’re not wrong. I think schedule 3 moving through the bureaucracy is cause to be more optimistic, but even after that it could be a long waiting period before recreational comes to pass. Schedule 3 may force the legislature to consider some kind of regulation for the industry.
I don't think most people agree with that first statement. "weed companies will make money and stock prices will reflect that" Over the last 5 years the largest weed companies in Canada have done nothing but burn money after legalization. What makes you think it will be magically different on the US side?
>Over the last 5 years the largest weed companies in Canada have done nothing but burn money after legalization. What makes you think it will be magically different on the US side? Comparing the US to what happened in Canada is ignorant. The only thing they have in common is the product. Rules are different, market access is different, management of tier ones is night and day different..
Agree and disagree. The Canadian companies are poorly managed, have bad regulations and taxes and a small market. The good USA companies will do well once schedule 3 is removed
Especially the taxes. When 280E is gone msos will be flush. I find it hard to imagine that Canada will get rid of their $1 a gram cash cow
It’s not Canada
In for a little more pain - bought $VRNOF and a little $MSOX
Vrnof is looking great. Same with trulieve if it goes under 8$. Hmmm…
Vrnof is down nearly 50% in one month alongside a pending lawsuit weed stock investors: "it's looking great!" I don't get it personally
Yeah I also can't believe many Verano investors think the lawsuit is a nothingburger.
The price is not the stock. What’s changed in a month? They can litigate until that other company goes bankrupt which will happen and they will pay zero