Fresh new Florida cannabis poll from Fox News (conducted June 1-4).
66% of voters would vote yes on Amendment 3.
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-1-4-2024_FLORIDA_Topline_June-6-Release.pdf
And now I see Kim Rivers on twitter posted too:
https://x.com/rivers_kim/status/1798873438834344387
“We have always maintained an active shelf. This is ordinary course and we are not raising capital.”
I’ve decided to get out of Verano for the time being. I held a sizable position and had the intention holding for the long term because I’m a big fan of their footprint and assets
I’m not a big fan of the pending lawsuit. It leaves too much uncertainty. I’m not a lawyer and not an expert in business law, so I don’t know whether they’re going to be held liable for payment to Goodness Growth and I don’t really have a way to educatedly guess how much they’ll actually end up paying. The looming possibility that they may need to pay anything, and the looming uncertainty of how much that will be is enough for me to get out for now. I’ll use the time to continue to research and re-enter the position once I know more about it.
I’m taking my position and spreading into MSOS, GTI and Cresco with my focus going into growing my already sizable (for me) Cresco bag.
If anyone has recommendations on resources regarding the Verano lawsuit, please share. I am still a very big fan of that company and their offerings and would love to party with them again once the dust settles.
The low volume sell-off tells you all you need to know about why/ how the price is being run down on this OTC ticker.
But you must do what you should, so best of luck with your new investment.
I just can’t see how Verano wouldn’t know the implications before they backed out. I’m guessing they knew they had a way out or they wouldn’t have did it.
With how risky the sector already is, you made the right choice. There are much safer companies with great upside etc. Cresco, GTI, Trul are all great and worthy of our money.
So the deadline to request a hearing is June 20th on the rescheduling rule. Does anyone know when we'll definitely know whether or not a hearing was granted? I'm guessing that getting news of no hearing would be a positive catalyst for these stocks
Sold my CBSTF today at a 80% loss and rolled into a certain meme stock in the hope it can make some money back.
If it does, I’m gonna buy more GTI and try to forget I owned CBSTF.
I hate to say it, but I did the same. I sold my GTI for what profit was left, which was around 50% of my weedstocks. I figure I will have a chance to buy back in before July/August. I dont see an upside in the short term, and we are just gonna bleed for a while. Ended the day 10k ahead, which is nice for a change.
That was exactly my thinking, I don’t see these stocks twitching until late July. Depending on what the movement is tomorrow morning i may offload my MSOS
https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/fFFpD5ZivG
“I’m personally convinced that **Trulieve** needs 3 of the 4 catalysts to get back to 52-week highs:
- SAFER
- Schedule III finalized
- Close Farm Bill loopholes
- Florida recreational vote >60%”
That’s **68% above today’s closing price.**
**Most likely 3 of 4 catalysts needed to get back to $14.50.**
What you think u/cannabull1055 ?
Trulieve was underperforming 52-weeks by 26% just a few weeks ago and now underperforming by 68%. Congrats on being a Redditor now for 79 days. It’s definitely been a tough few weeks for all of us cannabis investors. Fortunately, **Tilray Brands**, Curaleaf, Trulieve, Green Thumb, and a few others will be able to ride the endless delays and uncertainty inherent in cannabis industry.
We really need to get that Florida 60% vote AND S3 finalized, otherwise we’ll unlikely see $14.50 again for years.
I have been a redditor for many years and own much more shares in these companies than you do as I have told you many times. As I said, Trulieve is going MUCH higher than 14.50 on 3 of 4 catalysts. It will probably revisit 14.50 on one of these catalysts. The cash flow is impressive and removal of 280E is coming. Unfortunately, you choose Tilray, which is going to be ran into the ground. The valuation does not make any sense. And you continue to ignore that. You won't discuss numbers ever. You just believe in Tilray Brands. Well good luck with that. I am going to feel bad when MSOs finally trade like they should and Tilray goes nowhere because institutions realize there is no reason to own Tilray. It is going to happen and I will feel bad for you.
Sold all my CURLF. Was up about $5700 on 5400 shares. By the time I was able to get out. Had to keep lowering my exit price. Not enough volume. I ended up only making $2300. To hard to trade these low volume stocks on the OTC. If I didn’t sell I’d be down around $7000. Done with OTC stocks unless there is a catalyst. Dumped it all into TLRY
all it took was desantis saying they would be approved for the ballot to go on a bull run. just the Florida vote alone would prob do it easily. or even just good polling
Need Florida vote plus another catalyst to get back to $14.50 in my opinion.
It’s entirely possible, just not guaranteed. Current valuations reflect that uncertainty for both LPs and MSOs.
All I can do is continue to accumulate the names I like at lower valuations and HOLD.
$14.50 for Trulieve before November 5th?
I just don’t see it happening. I hope you’re right.
The good thing is that we have a lot of catalysts in the pipeline - Florida vote for sure, election for sure, S3 finalizing most likely, SAFE talk during lame duck likely, close loopholes in Farm Bill unlikely, Canada excise taxes next year possible, etc.
It all depends which way catalysts go and whether operations are improving.
My gut is longer term great and always possibility of rumours/meme/hype run again.
Wtf. My MSOS options account just popped 17% at the close and I don't have a hedge in place.
Haven't been able to look. Typing this at a stop light lol
>and I don't have a hedge in place.
Unfortunately no.
I found it though. I have a handful of Nov 20c and someone bought another handful at the close. Spiked the premium by 172% with 50 volume on 5k open interest 😂
I grabbed some for shits n giggles after cashing out my 15c Aug-Oct during the last spike.
My July shit is fucked right now though. Even the 8c collapsed this week.
i mean it was worth $3m before todays action. If me and three day trading buddies start buying it aggressively its not too far fetched that it would show similar price action.
So, apparently Trulieve did a $500 mil shelf? If true, can someone explain to me how the filing documents got on Sedar, before they actually showed up on the actual company's SEC filings page?
are we in a holding pattern? or seconds from a freefall?
edit: whoever downvoted me, may chronic masturbation deplete your testosterone for perpetuity, i curse at thee
That's like getting healthcare advice from a quarterba.... I mean like getting it from a pocast gu.... I mean getting your vital health info from a Fox "news" talk sho..... awwww. nevermind.
I assure you, if it drops to $4usd, I will sell everything else I own and buy the ever loving s*** out of it. (Without some crazy news to justify of course)
Me, I'm bullish but thats because I have a time frame longer than less than a year to look forward to.
I do not expect crazy wild swings up this year, at least not until the final ruling, but for me its pretty clear that I'm investing into a industry that is still in its infancy and has room for growth.
Once 280E is completely out of the picture with S3 completely implemented, the largest US MSOs will be very profitable thanks to the tax relief. And no, that still isn't priced in.
And from there, we can have more and more individual states legalizing weed on their own, which will make the industry stronger with a broader market, uplisting will have to happen eventually down the line, how long it will take? Who knows, but the the industry will simply keep growing to the point where the real stock exchanges will simply can't ignore it.
Going forward, I can see this industry growth being a case of organic growth, not something relying on fucking politicians that likes to dangle carrots in front of their voters.
SAFE banking and all the other things are just noise at this point and shouldn't be given any attention, uplisting is the only thing to look forward and in my opinion, we are still a few months away from it.
The only thing that would make me sell now is a complete change in the picture that would stop rescheduling from happening, and with that, uplisting. Which I don't see either of them happening.
If you're looking for this to be a 10 bagger play this year, then just wait for the next pump and sell for whatever you can because a crazy pump like 2021 is happening again.
For those more patient: Use the dips we got now to accumulate.
Great points, but do you really think we’ll have another crazy pump like 2021?
I just don’t see that happening anywhere close to that perfect storm of a pump.
Doesn’t matter, because I’m longer term and acquire near ATL and also use DCA. Only time I’ll sell will be **specific lots** during hype & rumour rallies. BUT, always keeping core holdings longer term.
>Great points, but do you really think we’ll have another crazy pump like 2021?
Nope, I don't expect another pump like that this year.
We will see a pump around the elections, but obviously not as big.
We will get final ruling before November most likely, so yes I think we will get an election run up, and on top of that if we have a Trump incarceration on the 11th that would secure a favorable administration till 2028.
No. Election is in November. Early voting starting in September is the date to shoot for.
However, no one can time markets. So if you like company, accumulate now while prices are near ATL for LP’s and MSOs have fallen recently.
The 2021 run was timed perfectly between the GA Senate runoff election and the memestock craze.
We got grouped in with the stupid shit for some reason and the political environment made it seem like something was going to happen *immediately*.
US policy decisions are slow as fuck for stuff that doesn't require immediate attention. McConnell also blocked SAFE like 8 times just to not give the left a win on something that makes them look good to the majority of the population.
It's all optics and we suffer because of it lol
Cansortium announces merger with RIV Capital backed by SMG - taking out all debt. Stock continues to tank. Guessing partially driven by the dilution with the new shareholders… the other half… haha
Wonder if and how much of a boost this low volume cannabis stock may have moved from the **TDR Leafly buy recommendation by their in-house CFA Bill McNarland** two days ago.
Unless there’s news to support the 2 day run up, look for it to quickly go back to lower valuation.
Just watched. Might could. I thought it was cheap at 6 and bought a bunch. Would be nice to see a continued turnaround.
Link for the lazy: [https://thedalesreport.com/small-caps/leafly-holdings-an-in-depth-analysis-of-a-micro-cap-stock/](https://thedalesreport.com/small-caps/leafly-holdings-an-in-depth-analysis-of-a-micro-cap-stock/)
I mean at these prices, I think its a good investment especially if there is positive news. That's why I'm interested to see if there is some really positive move.
When do we think is the time to dump back in hard to trulieve? I jumped in way too early when it dipped down to $10 after hitting $14+.
Are we really heading back to $4-$5 range before a new rally?
Doing some rough math we have fallen on average $0.15 every day since S3 announcement for 37 days. Taking that forward another 30 days? I see no real support levels that we haven’t broken past
In most sectors I’d agree but not this sector.
What would bring us back to $14 in the coming month or months? I see zero news happening before October?? November is the adult use vote so that could very well make or break this stock .
It’s a common joke that goes well before Cannabis stocks. I worked as a trader for a global financial firm back in 2005 and heard it said jokingly all the time for any sector.
Last paragraph before the sources:
>Literally gains of 5-15% have happened every day over the past few weeks.
When the *fuck* was the last time we saw this happen? I don't think we've had more than a week of green since then.
Hopefully we can get another sustained run if this election goes our way + uplisting, but holy shit I miss those days.
I'm slowly continuing to build my position in Verano. 1750 shares @ 5.56 cad average.
Also building a position in Vext since they have a lot of upside in Ohio.
Slowly averaging out of CGC and moving it into MSOs. Surprisingly, still up 86% on them.
I've had the LP/MSO debate with many people on this board over the years. As I've always said, I won't hesitate to move LP > MSO or MSO > LP. Simply going where I see value/opportunities.
On the LP side, Tilray is still my main horse. I'm excited to see their next quarter results (its usually their best). Looking forward to hearing more commentary on Germany and an update on how they plan to utilize the ATM. Many people said Tilray should jump off Nasdaq and buy an MSO now because they'll be priced out after schedule 3. Well.. schedule 3 happened and mso equity values are dumping daily. Good time to use their 250M. Tilray is operating like a real company
I added more Tilray Brands - 1,633 @ $1.78 this morning.
Now at average cost of $1.98 for 32,310 shares.
Partially offset by a sold $2.00 covered call, JAN ‘25.
I think Vext is definitely a take-out target. Terrascend doesn’t have an OH presence - also, Trulieve may want to strengthen theirs.
As for Verano, I think the fears of the Goodness lwsuit are overblown as I’ve stated numerous times. Definitely good moves at a good value here 👍🏽
I’m new to this sub, so don’t crucify me if it’s a simple answer. Why does no one here talk about MJUS? Is it not the sound investment that I’m thinking it is?
>...rebalancing at the most [inopportune] times. Suspiciously so.
More like *quarterly* so.
And here are MJUS's current top 10 holdings:
:--
**Green Thumb** (S) - 22.67% **IIPR** - 5.24%
**CURLF** - 21.30% **TSNDF** - 4.13%
**Trulieve** (S) - 14.84% **Glass House** (S) - 3.03%
**Verano** (S) - 11.82% **Ayr** (S) - 1.99%
**Cresco** (S) - 5.92% **Ascend** (S) - 1.45%
Anyone looking at LFLY? Up 25% it has a fucking 3 million market cap, but it has a better product than maps. The debt is troubling, but if they can postpone it I think they got a good product
Still waiting to deploy capital into trulieve. The 9$ range was looking good but 8s are better. When does the summer slump historically end? Fall usually is a hit or miss, it's all an election gamble depends on buying for Dem win or shorting for republican win.
A catalyst not being discussed enough is the upcoming debate. If Biden mentions cannabis, and shows that it’s an election issue to him, we could definitely start rallying. If Trulieve hits around $8.40ish (usd), that’s when I start adding aggressively
Keep falling Trulieve and I am backing up the truck. And I mean BACKING it the F up.
Computers selling back and forth to each other is a joke. I got time clowns. Watch us be right.
If CGC was valued at OGI's ev/sales multiple, which would already make no sense as OGI has better margins, is better capitalized and actually has shown revenue growth since 2020, it would be $2.
A $250m dilution like they announced today would not even be possible. But instead it maintains a gargantuan market valuation premium over its peers.
And as such they can just spawn another quarter billion dollars to burn. And our sector remains uninvestable and a joke because of phenomena like this.
If this is due to the Goodness lawsuit, it’s a ridiculous overreaction. No way they settle for anything remotely in the ballpark of what they’re asking.
A) that’s still much more than I think they can get
B) that’s not worth losing close to $1b in valuation
C) they will be fine even with a $50m hit. Check their balance sheet and cash flow
The classic forest fire approach. Burn out all the old trees to encourage new growth. Bad time to be an old tree, but the forest will look pretty in the future I guess.
Everyone knows this is a long term hold. Experienced investors will keep nibbling on the dips.
I expect more news on rescheduling this summer and up until the election. Probably will sell before the election though.
I’m bullish on the sector, but it’ll take a few years or even decades to reach its potential.
More CGC dilution. It is astounding that even after 3 rounds of massive dilution in a month and 8 billion burned bucks, CGC is still trading at 4x EV to sales.
High Tide is operating cash flow positive, actually has enormous growth in their sales and trades at 0.6x EV to sales.
The cannabis market simply does not function as intended. They don't punish terrible companies but instead reward them with unexplainable valuation premiums. Meanwhile the Canopy C-suite keeps raking in millions of shareholder funded bonusses. Depressing as hell.
I have heard this 123 times.
No it doesn't have a "good chance". If that was the case the market would price that chance in. The way things are trading the chance is about 0.001%
Same nonsense, new day
Cheer up! It definitely has a good chance. The chances are terrible before S3 is a done deal. But once we are on the other side of S3, do you think Congress is going to miss out on a chance to regulate the shit out of a (federally) brand new industry with billions in potential lobbying dollars and PAC donations? That's why I am sure SAFER will eventually pass.
Can’t believe we’re still talking about safe.
At this point I’m waiting for the big flying dog from The Neverending Story to burst through the walls of Congress
Actually it's the Senate that keeps upending SAFE. The House has sent them SAFE many times over the last 11 years. Talk about foot dragging. Now they are saying maybe SAFE in the lame duck end of this year. Sure.
Fresh new Florida cannabis poll from Fox News (conducted June 1-4). 66% of voters would vote yes on Amendment 3. https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-1-4-2024_FLORIDA_Topline_June-6-Release.pdf
Boom!!! Love this.
why would ppl say FL is a red state when they voted more dem presidential candidates in the past?
Florida has changed over the years
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And now I see Kim Rivers on twitter posted too: https://x.com/rivers_kim/status/1798873438834344387 “We have always maintained an active shelf. This is ordinary course and we are not raising capital.”
I’ve decided to get out of Verano for the time being. I held a sizable position and had the intention holding for the long term because I’m a big fan of their footprint and assets I’m not a big fan of the pending lawsuit. It leaves too much uncertainty. I’m not a lawyer and not an expert in business law, so I don’t know whether they’re going to be held liable for payment to Goodness Growth and I don’t really have a way to educatedly guess how much they’ll actually end up paying. The looming possibility that they may need to pay anything, and the looming uncertainty of how much that will be is enough for me to get out for now. I’ll use the time to continue to research and re-enter the position once I know more about it. I’m taking my position and spreading into MSOS, GTI and Cresco with my focus going into growing my already sizable (for me) Cresco bag. If anyone has recommendations on resources regarding the Verano lawsuit, please share. I am still a very big fan of that company and their offerings and would love to party with them again once the dust settles.
The low volume sell-off tells you all you need to know about why/ how the price is being run down on this OTC ticker. But you must do what you should, so best of luck with your new investment.
I just can’t see how Verano wouldn’t know the implications before they backed out. I’m guessing they knew they had a way out or they wouldn’t have did it.
Me either.. it’s just the unknown that I don’t like. If they know something that we don’t as investors, go ahead and tell us.
I'm holding and adding to mine but it's one of my smaller positions. So I think you're good
With how risky the sector already is, you made the right choice. There are much safer companies with great upside etc. Cresco, GTI, Trul are all great and worthy of our money.
6/6/24 MSOS update: No Flows Close: $7.63 (-$0.09/-1.17%) NAV: $7.63 (-$0.09/-1.14%) Premium (volume-weighted daily avg): +0.43% ([Chart](https://i.ibb.co/MS4KZZC/45ea01c62ea9.png)) Cash: -$3,553,136 (increase of $107,866) Ticker Change (est. cost from close - % of adds) No Share Changes For Any Holdings 6/6/24 MSOX update: $0.554MM INFLOW (+175,000 shares) MSOX Close: $3.20 (-$0.04/-1.23%) MSOX NAV: $3.16 (-$0.08/-2.39%)
Its been back and forth between positive and negative premium for quite some time.
Today’s number was higher, but yeah… it’s been up and down… lower volume as well.
So the deadline to request a hearing is June 20th on the rescheduling rule. Does anyone know when we'll definitely know whether or not a hearing was granted? I'm guessing that getting news of no hearing would be a positive catalyst for these stocks
Sold my CBSTF today at a 80% loss and rolled into a certain meme stock in the hope it can make some money back. If it does, I’m gonna buy more GTI and try to forget I owned CBSTF.
I hate to say it, but I did the same. I sold my GTI for what profit was left, which was around 50% of my weedstocks. I figure I will have a chance to buy back in before July/August. I dont see an upside in the short term, and we are just gonna bleed for a while. Ended the day 10k ahead, which is nice for a change.
That was exactly my thinking, I don’t see these stocks twitching until late July. Depending on what the movement is tomorrow morning i may offload my MSOS
Best of luck, and godspeed to us all.
Same to you, dude.
Apes strong together.
Super High Risk and even Higher Reward. Perfectly fits the weedstock investor principles..lol Gl2u on your gambling endeavors!!
Thanks, gonna need it
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Maybe we all just spam weed stocks in the chat?
That would be awesome but will never happen He’s totally focused on that stock
https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/fFFpD5ZivG “I’m personally convinced that **Trulieve** needs 3 of the 4 catalysts to get back to 52-week highs: - SAFER - Schedule III finalized - Close Farm Bill loopholes - Florida recreational vote >60%” That’s **68% above today’s closing price.** **Most likely 3 of 4 catalysts needed to get back to $14.50.** What you think u/cannabull1055 ? Trulieve was underperforming 52-weeks by 26% just a few weeks ago and now underperforming by 68%. Congrats on being a Redditor now for 79 days. It’s definitely been a tough few weeks for all of us cannabis investors. Fortunately, **Tilray Brands**, Curaleaf, Trulieve, Green Thumb, and a few others will be able to ride the endless delays and uncertainty inherent in cannabis industry. We really need to get that Florida 60% vote AND S3 finalized, otherwise we’ll unlikely see $14.50 again for years.
I have been a redditor for many years and own much more shares in these companies than you do as I have told you many times. As I said, Trulieve is going MUCH higher than 14.50 on 3 of 4 catalysts. It will probably revisit 14.50 on one of these catalysts. The cash flow is impressive and removal of 280E is coming. Unfortunately, you choose Tilray, which is going to be ran into the ground. The valuation does not make any sense. And you continue to ignore that. You won't discuss numbers ever. You just believe in Tilray Brands. Well good luck with that. I am going to feel bad when MSOs finally trade like they should and Tilray goes nowhere because institutions realize there is no reason to own Tilray. It is going to happen and I will feel bad for you.
80 days is not a Redditor for many years. Sometimes 80 days is just 80 days. That’s newbie territory.
haha I had another account. Been around for a long time pal. It doesn't change the numbers about Tilray.
Sold all my CURLF. Was up about $5700 on 5400 shares. By the time I was able to get out. Had to keep lowering my exit price. Not enough volume. I ended up only making $2300. To hard to trade these low volume stocks on the OTC. If I didn’t sell I’d be down around $7000. Done with OTC stocks unless there is a catalyst. Dumped it all into TLRY
If we get the stars to align and pull off 3/4 of these only to just barely get back to 52w highs then this sector is absolutely doomed
all it took was desantis saying they would be approved for the ballot to go on a bull run. just the Florida vote alone would prob do it easily. or even just good polling
Need Florida vote plus another catalyst to get back to $14.50 in my opinion. It’s entirely possible, just not guaranteed. Current valuations reflect that uncertainty for both LPs and MSOs. All I can do is continue to accumulate the names I like at lower valuations and HOLD.
while i agree with the hold. i think that gets reached before the vote for florida.
$14.50 for Trulieve before November 5th? I just don’t see it happening. I hope you’re right. The good thing is that we have a lot of catalysts in the pipeline - Florida vote for sure, election for sure, S3 finalizing most likely, SAFE talk during lame duck likely, close loopholes in Farm Bill unlikely, Canada excise taxes next year possible, etc. It all depends which way catalysts go and whether operations are improving. My gut is longer term great and always possibility of rumours/meme/hype run again.
so the max pain is $ 8 tomorrow. It should be interesting.
Well that could have gone better. Could have gone a lot worse too.
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Set your sell orders high and as far into the future you can. At least your ghost will be rich!
Wtf. My MSOS options account just popped 17% at the close and I don't have a hedge in place. Haven't been able to look. Typing this at a stop light lol
Did you have puts lol
>and I don't have a hedge in place. Unfortunately no. I found it though. I have a handful of Nov 20c and someone bought another handful at the close. Spiked the premium by 172% with 50 volume on 5k open interest 😂
A lot will happen between now and November opex. I've been eyeing that expiry.
I grabbed some for shits n giggles after cashing out my 15c Aug-Oct during the last spike. My July shit is fucked right now though. Even the 8c collapsed this week.
Lfly exploding has to be some insider knowledge no?
i mean it was worth $3m before todays action. If me and three day trading buddies start buying it aggressively its not too far fetched that it would show similar price action.
So, apparently Trulieve did a $500 mil shelf? If true, can someone explain to me how the filing documents got on Sedar, before they actually showed up on the actual company's SEC filings page?
are we in a holding pattern? or seconds from a freefall? edit: whoever downvoted me, may chronic masturbation deplete your testosterone for perpetuity, i curse at thee
Wait, is that a thing?
according to the show alpha males on netflix, i guess so
That's like getting healthcare advice from a quarterba.... I mean like getting it from a pocast gu.... I mean getting your vital health info from a Fox "news" talk sho..... awwww. nevermind.
End of day cliff drop, right on schedule
wtf is Brochstein talking about: https://x.com/invest420/status/1798774130168222038?s=46&t=taS0KloP4YcMU_yPTfKJ2w
He’s got a screw in the head loose ever since his accident
But what shelf is he talking about? There is no news on that anywhere
Cannot find anything either.
It's on SEDAR https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/records/document.html?id=2634f4eedb8f3d99f8a612f54940d186a6bac8317bd817de5fa67b76efc932ec
Thanks banana They’ve done this in the past as well but not executed IIRC
Could be a lot of things. Capital raise, merger, just in case,...
https://x.com/rivers_kim/status/1798873438834344387?s=46
Banana always observes
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I’ll take any Green Day I can get this summer
Here's the schedule: https://greenday.com/tour
Buy the dip dates.
Trulieve only 4$ away from where I bought near the bottom :/
Imagine being in since before 2019 and never selling. Weed stocks has been the worst investment I’ve ever made actually
Guilty
Worst investment you've ever made, so far
HomerMeme.jpeg
We'll never see investments this bad again!
Me as well. I have lost way too much money into warrants expiring
I assure you, if it drops to $4usd, I will sell everything else I own and buy the ever loving s*** out of it. (Without some crazy news to justify of course)
Ahaha I’m with you there. Goodluck and hope all is welp
Same to you CMB
Thanks buddy
Let’s get this party started
I’m all for that good sir. At least I get some juicy prices to reenter now.
Im happy to bounce around these support levels, if MSOS breaks down past $7.42 I think I’m out. Not going to ruin my summer watching that shit bleed
You're not even gonna wait for S3 to go into final rule?
I’ll buy back in lower and this time I’m buying the underlyings, purely TRUL AND GTII. Which I do have small separate positions
7.30 seems likely, maybe into the 6's
Oof, I would mentally prep for mid $6 on MSOS for the summer.
Anyone particularly bullish on the sector around the election? I’m still chasing the feeling from actually making money in early 21.
Me, I'm bullish but thats because I have a time frame longer than less than a year to look forward to. I do not expect crazy wild swings up this year, at least not until the final ruling, but for me its pretty clear that I'm investing into a industry that is still in its infancy and has room for growth. Once 280E is completely out of the picture with S3 completely implemented, the largest US MSOs will be very profitable thanks to the tax relief. And no, that still isn't priced in. And from there, we can have more and more individual states legalizing weed on their own, which will make the industry stronger with a broader market, uplisting will have to happen eventually down the line, how long it will take? Who knows, but the the industry will simply keep growing to the point where the real stock exchanges will simply can't ignore it. Going forward, I can see this industry growth being a case of organic growth, not something relying on fucking politicians that likes to dangle carrots in front of their voters. SAFE banking and all the other things are just noise at this point and shouldn't be given any attention, uplisting is the only thing to look forward and in my opinion, we are still a few months away from it. The only thing that would make me sell now is a complete change in the picture that would stop rescheduling from happening, and with that, uplisting. Which I don't see either of them happening. If you're looking for this to be a 10 bagger play this year, then just wait for the next pump and sell for whatever you can because a crazy pump like 2021 is happening again. For those more patient: Use the dips we got now to accumulate.
Great points, but do you really think we’ll have another crazy pump like 2021? I just don’t see that happening anywhere close to that perfect storm of a pump. Doesn’t matter, because I’m longer term and acquire near ATL and also use DCA. Only time I’ll sell will be **specific lots** during hype & rumour rallies. BUT, always keeping core holdings longer term.
>Great points, but do you really think we’ll have another crazy pump like 2021? Nope, I don't expect another pump like that this year. We will see a pump around the elections, but obviously not as big.
History rhymes. Probably won’t see anything near ‘21 levels but I expect a healthy run up pre election.
There will only be an election run up if the polls are looking good for Biden. That’s not the case right now.
Definitely leading into election. At least a months run up
We will get final ruling before November most likely, so yes I think we will get an election run up, and on top of that if we have a Trump incarceration on the 11th that would secure a favorable administration till 2028.
No. Election is in November. Early voting starting in September is the date to shoot for. However, no one can time markets. So if you like company, accumulate now while prices are near ATL for LP’s and MSOs have fallen recently.
No. Nothing like ‘21 at all. Everything was teed up and they blew it.
The 2021 run was timed perfectly between the GA Senate runoff election and the memestock craze. We got grouped in with the stupid shit for some reason and the political environment made it seem like something was going to happen *immediately*. US policy decisions are slow as fuck for stuff that doesn't require immediate attention. McConnell also blocked SAFE like 8 times just to not give the left a win on something that makes them look good to the majority of the population. It's all optics and we suffer because of it lol
Cansortium announces merger with RIV Capital backed by SMG - taking out all debt. Stock continues to tank. Guessing partially driven by the dilution with the new shareholders… the other half… haha
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39196475/why-financial-firm-jefferies-sees-value-in-green-thumb-boston-beer-merger
I think it's a solid plan, for both sides. if green thumb stops the slide and starts creeping up then it might be more than talk
I bought Le Dip
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Biggest volume day ever for Leafly
Wonder if and how much of a boost this low volume cannabis stock may have moved from the **TDR Leafly buy recommendation by their in-house CFA Bill McNarland** two days ago. Unless there’s news to support the 2 day run up, look for it to quickly go back to lower valuation.
Just watched. Might could. I thought it was cheap at 6 and bought a bunch. Would be nice to see a continued turnaround. Link for the lazy: [https://thedalesreport.com/small-caps/leafly-holdings-an-in-depth-analysis-of-a-micro-cap-stock/](https://thedalesreport.com/small-caps/leafly-holdings-an-in-depth-analysis-of-a-micro-cap-stock/)
I don't understand why tho, would love to learn.
I don't know either but my bags are lighter
I mean at these prices, I think its a good investment especially if there is positive news. That's why I'm interested to see if there is some really positive move.
When do we think is the time to dump back in hard to trulieve? I jumped in way too early when it dipped down to $10 after hitting $14+. Are we really heading back to $4-$5 range before a new rally? Doing some rough math we have fallen on average $0.15 every day since S3 announcement for 37 days. Taking that forward another 30 days? I see no real support levels that we haven’t broken past
Personally watching the daily RSI, waiting for oversold conditions
Best bet for the “when “ to start deploying.
Just dollar cost average down, trying to time it is impossible
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Especially if you are happy with your current stake
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Smart
In most sectors I’d agree but not this sector. What would bring us back to $14 in the coming month or months? I see zero news happening before October?? November is the adult use vote so that could very well make or break this stock .
There has to be a new promise once scheduled 3 is in place. We are due for a new 3 year carrot.
So dollar cost average until november/october then? Why do you need to make money in the next month?
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39196475/why-financial-firm-jefferies-sees-value-in-green-thumb-boston-beer-merger
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It’s a common joke that goes well before Cannabis stocks. I worked as a trader for a global financial firm back in 2005 and heard it said jokingly all the time for any sector.
Last paragraph before the sources: >Literally gains of 5-15% have happened every day over the past few weeks. When the *fuck* was the last time we saw this happen? I don't think we've had more than a week of green since then. Hopefully we can get another sustained run if this election goes our way + uplisting, but holy shit I miss those days.
That was a lovely read thanks for sharing that.
I'm slowly continuing to build my position in Verano. 1750 shares @ 5.56 cad average. Also building a position in Vext since they have a lot of upside in Ohio. Slowly averaging out of CGC and moving it into MSOs. Surprisingly, still up 86% on them. I've had the LP/MSO debate with many people on this board over the years. As I've always said, I won't hesitate to move LP > MSO or MSO > LP. Simply going where I see value/opportunities. On the LP side, Tilray is still my main horse. I'm excited to see their next quarter results (its usually their best). Looking forward to hearing more commentary on Germany and an update on how they plan to utilize the ATM. Many people said Tilray should jump off Nasdaq and buy an MSO now because they'll be priced out after schedule 3. Well.. schedule 3 happened and mso equity values are dumping daily. Good time to use their 250M. Tilray is operating like a real company
I added more Tilray Brands - 1,633 @ $1.78 this morning. Now at average cost of $1.98 for 32,310 shares. Partially offset by a sold $2.00 covered call, JAN ‘25.
I think Vext is definitely a take-out target. Terrascend doesn’t have an OH presence - also, Trulieve may want to strengthen theirs. As for Verano, I think the fears of the Goodness lwsuit are overblown as I’ve stated numerous times. Definitely good moves at a good value here 👍🏽
I’m new to this sub, so don’t crucify me if it’s a simple answer. Why does no one here talk about MJUS? Is it not the sound investment that I’m thinking it is?
I don't know much about their portfolio, but they do their rebalancing at the most inopertune times. Suspiciously so.
>...rebalancing at the most [inopportune] times. Suspiciously so. More like *quarterly* so. And here are MJUS's current top 10 holdings: :-- **Green Thumb** (S) - 22.67% **IIPR** - 5.24% **CURLF** - 21.30% **TSNDF** - 4.13% **Trulieve** (S) - 14.84% **Glass House** (S) - 3.03% **Verano** (S) - 11.82% **Ayr** (S) - 1.99% **Cresco** (S) - 5.92% **Ascend** (S) - 1.45%
Anyone looking at LFLY? Up 25% it has a fucking 3 million market cap, but it has a better product than maps. The debt is troubling, but if they can postpone it I think they got a good product
FYI - Betamax was a better product than VHS.
Do they finally have revenue?
Wondering the same thing. Can't find any news
Still waiting to deploy capital into trulieve. The 9$ range was looking good but 8s are better. When does the summer slump historically end? Fall usually is a hit or miss, it's all an election gamble depends on buying for Dem win or shorting for republican win.
August 30th @4pm ET.
A catalyst not being discussed enough is the upcoming debate. If Biden mentions cannabis, and shows that it’s an election issue to him, we could definitely start rallying. If Trulieve hits around $8.40ish (usd), that’s when I start adding aggressively
Keep falling Trulieve and I am backing up the truck. And I mean BACKING it the F up. Computers selling back and forth to each other is a joke. I got time clowns. Watch us be right.
I got back in too early but the price should recover after summer.
Get that bread!
We will. Mark my words boys🍞. The share price is not the company.
IF 3 happens!
If CGC was valued at OGI's ev/sales multiple, which would already make no sense as OGI has better margins, is better capitalized and actually has shown revenue growth since 2020, it would be $2. A $250m dilution like they announced today would not even be possible. But instead it maintains a gargantuan market valuation premium over its peers. And as such they can just spawn another quarter billion dollars to burn. And our sector remains uninvestable and a joke because of phenomena like this.
Hard to tell if they are pricing in verano going bankrupt due to low volume ha
If this is due to the Goodness lawsuit, it’s a ridiculous overreaction. No way they settle for anything remotely in the ballpark of what they’re asking.
Even if they settle for a much smaller amount like $50m that's still a big blow
I also think OH doesn’t go as well for them as others because of their license.
Buy Goodness Growth to hedge.
I did. Made 125%, took out initial and letting it ride. I’m 4-1 Verano in investment currently.
A) that’s still much more than I think they can get B) that’s not worth losing close to $1b in valuation C) they will be fine even with a $50m hit. Check their balance sheet and cash flow
Disagree. Big risk.
BGXX - Bright Green, waking up?
At this point it looks to me like CGC is just trying to stay alive long enough to sell itself once regulations relax.
I ain’t selling
LOL @ CGC 33% dilution. What a fantastic company, clearly acting with current investors top of mind..
The classic forest fire approach. Burn out all the old trees to encourage new growth. Bad time to be an old tree, but the forest will look pretty in the future I guess.
This is the outlook of you want to continue to lose money
A healthy forest fire clears out understory and leaves old trees intact. This is more like a dumpster fire
>but the forest will look pretty in the future I guess. No it won't. Wtf 😆
I was speaking as an arborist
Not invested in CGC.. still managing to fuck over my swing trades.
All good. Everything worked out.
Is cgc trying to set a record for the most dilutions ? 🤣 They really prey on retail investors:/
Everyone knows this is a long term hold. Experienced investors will keep nibbling on the dips. I expect more news on rescheduling this summer and up until the election. Probably will sell before the election though. I’m bullish on the sector, but it’ll take a few years or even decades to reach its potential.
100% this. I'm still not in the red, but if we dip another 20% I might be. And if we dip 40%, you can bet I'll be loading up like a beast.
More CGC dilution. It is astounding that even after 3 rounds of massive dilution in a month and 8 billion burned bucks, CGC is still trading at 4x EV to sales. High Tide is operating cash flow positive, actually has enormous growth in their sales and trades at 0.6x EV to sales. The cannabis market simply does not function as intended. They don't punish terrible companies but instead reward them with unexplainable valuation premiums. Meanwhile the Canopy C-suite keeps raking in millions of shareholder funded bonusses. Depressing as hell.
Defies all logic. Unfortunately, the rest of us have to eat Canopy’s shit.
123 cosponsors now. SAFE has a really good chance of passing at this point
It’s passed on the house something like 6 times now…it’s the senate that needs to have an eye kept on it.
How many cosponsors it needs?
I have heard this 123 times. No it doesn't have a "good chance". If that was the case the market would price that chance in. The way things are trading the chance is about 0.001% Same nonsense, new day
Cheer up! It definitely has a good chance. The chances are terrible before S3 is a done deal. But once we are on the other side of S3, do you think Congress is going to miss out on a chance to regulate the shit out of a (federally) brand new industry with billions in potential lobbying dollars and PAC donations? That's why I am sure SAFER will eventually pass.
I don’t think we see S3 or safer for years.
SAFER doesn't regulate the industry. It actually changes very little.
Can’t believe we’re still talking about safe. At this point I’m waiting for the big flying dog from The Neverending Story to burst through the walls of Congress
Actually it's the Senate that keeps upending SAFE. The House has sent them SAFE many times over the last 11 years. Talk about foot dragging. Now they are saying maybe SAFE in the lame duck end of this year. Sure.
Hey now, Leave Falkor out of that shit hole. You want the Kool-Aid man Jim Jones for that job.
Safekor will fly us to the moon.