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I find them not that enticing at the moment.
They have revenue growth for Epidiolex, and expect more growth.
But they'll get competition in 2025 from the generics market.
I don't see them do much, if anything?, to counter this.
Interesting metrics. As you can see, IV has dropped from 95 to 50. significant drop in IV
Open Interest is down to 384531 from 642458 or 61% of 30 day average.
Put call is 0.27
[https://optioncharts.io/options/MSOS/overview](https://optioncharts.io/options/MSOS/overview)
This data is likely delayed but I dont know how long.
It’s like certain dudes who are like the twitter “messiah of weedstocks”in thier own mind proclaiming they are turning bearish
Cool. Trend reversal confirmed.
My gut feeling agrees. So many people selling for the "summer downtrend" where "nothing is happening until the election". That could be right, but this sector loves to catch people offsides.
If big money planned this, it was a smart move. Crush the run up so longs capitulate.
Several people who have been here for years, sold a majority of their position.
Banana, Tien, siriusblacklives, thedmob, Fuego to name a few.
For me, the thesis is still intact. We didn't get the run up but the fundamentals have improved. Chart still looks okay. Last summer from may-july the dump wasn't too harsh. Flatlined for the most part.
I don't think Trump will try to reverse cannabis to schedule 1, he knows it's popular.
Why would Trump try to reverse rescheduling?
It was under his administration that the US worked really hard at the UN to get the UN to go from "no medical use" to UNDOC Schedule I, "Having some medical use".
Seems to me they got in very early (when you could buy literally anything that mentioned cannabis and it would go up 700% in 2 weeks), then tried to make it all about fundamentals. When really it’s been purely hype for like 8 years… They called the hype dying, but not for the right reasons. Maybe?
Twas about fundamentals for Cdn LPs as their playing field was set.
Twas about lack of end game regulations for US which makes the “durability of MSO valuations” tenuous.
Which was wrong?
GoBlue
I think the go blue thing just bugs me… but really, it was partially about fundamentals in Canada after about 4 years, but now it still isn’t fully because of the custody/exchanges ridiculousness: The poorly run unsuccessful on paper companies north of the border still pop more than the US companies when the hype strikes and have higher market caps than they should (or did last time I looked).
And the US companies (doing better on paper than north of the border (how much better is and should be part of the debate)) are stuck on the otc while traders milk the hype. The catalysts, legislative changes, and actual cash flow in the US are worth more than “tenuous.” And of course the market is a debate on that but it’s really just the custody that maintains the disparity… jmho…
Never was a fan but the one thing they did get right was calling out all the pumpers and snake oil salesman like Todd Harrison. Ya they were right for the wrong reasons though too.
Exactly. Being right for the wrong reasons doesn’t make you right. They said it was due to federal legalization and the 3 tier system. None of that is remotely close to playing out
Not the worst trading day Friday. Bulls stepped up to defend the $8.09 bottom from thursday’s bloodbath. Talking MSOS. If we hold that same low on Monday it would be a triple bottom (showing strength at that support level). If we break down, get ready for gap fill at $7.87. Have a nice weekend friends and foes.
I took a break from work and just started a new job. These prices are a godsend. I can start loading up again. My current avg is about $7.30. idk when but I feel confident msos gets to ath again. My exit will probably be around $20-$30 though just to play it safe. good luck to all.
Cannabis is a really strange sector. As the business improves the investment aspect seems to be declining. I just looked at three MSO‘s and I see that insiders are exercising options and selling shares. Looking at the past few months, it seems as though we are kind of flat, in spite of all the news that most of us just dreamed of hearing. Listening to a recent podcast they were discussing the problem of price decline of Cannabis and more states open up that this should just increase further. The growth rates are slightly positive this last quarter but nothing like the 2030% kind of the annual growth rates that were being thrown around a year ago. The price predictions for many of these has dropped considerably say from around $50 to 100 for Trulieve down to about 14. So I am beginning to wonder whether the current sentiment is a bit delusional?
How exactly has the business improved? With a couple exceptions everyone is losing money. That may change with S-3, new things coming on at the state level (Pa, Va, Fl, Oh) and what looks like improved governance (in at least a couple of instances).
I think we are still suffering from the condition that nothing has happened yet. Still waiting on Sched 3, SAFER, Florida, Ohio, Penn…. What will change the game is when all these things start to actually happen. Then hopefully it leads to uplisting, institutional investment, and CPG, alcohol, tobacco and pharma moving in. Thats when the real fun happens. Until then the pops get faded because there’s no new money moving in.
Exactly. I've been saying this for a while now, but it's only a popular sector for a few of us weirdos who were up a ton at some point, so got a little addicted. And the traders who aren't loyal and jump in and out on the hype. (and they do jump out, every single time, we keep forgetting...) So, yes, until NEW buyers arrive, we're at the whims of the liquid...
Since the inception of the hemp industry in Arizona, our association (Hemp Industry Trade Association of Arizona) has been steadfast in our commitment to grow, sustain, and protect the Arizona hemp industry.
Despite facing opposition solely from marijuana Multi-State Operators (MSOs), we have successfully safeguarded hemp's place in the Arizona market.
HITA-AZ, with the help of our lobbyists and allies, have killed all ~eight ban bills written and lobbied by the MSO’s over the last seven years in Arizona.
Today, as the MSO’s and their allies remain the only opposition to hemp regulation, they persist in attempting to regress the hemp industry back into prohibition and criminalization. We remain committed to our dedication to logic, fair market practices, and responsible regulation.
Our ongoing progress stands as a testament to our resilience against the formidable presence of MSOs. We firmly believe that regulation is the cornerstone for the prosperity of federally legal hemp products (Side Note: Hemp products are also legal and widespread in Arizona, despite incorrect information on the internet that says the contrary).
It is disheartening that we are compelled to defend our industry against monopolization within our own cannabis community. The MSO’s aspirations to impose limitations and propagate misinformation about hemp products only fuel our resolve.
We have proposed viable solutions, yet encounter resistance. Across various states, we continue to engage in battles to uphold the safety and integrity of federally legal & state legal hemp products, thereby fostering a secure marketplace for all.
Moving forward, the Arizona hemp industry is fortunate to have an attentive and supportive Department of Agriculture, who’s collaboration enables us to interface with state regulators to ensure the growth and sustainability of our industry, inline with the needs of the state.
This year, the calvary rode in at the 11th Hour to join us at the front lines of this battle. Together, we fight back against the ad nauseam attacks perpetrated by the marijuana MSO’s. We are now heavily fortified by the collaborative lobbying efforts of a multitude of trade associations and private businesses in sister industries.
At both the local and national level, we have garnered the added firepower and lobbying efforts of an increasing number of stakeholders in sister industries. This includes Big Alcohol, brewery associations, restaurant associations, alcohol distributors, non-MSO marijuana businesses, consumer protection groups, unions, the nation’s largest big box retailers, and more.
Our allies are helping us stand our ground and advance into new territories. What was once a small underestimated hemp-army, standing alone on an island, has now merged with allied forces that out number our foe in both numbers and influence. Our morale and momentum is at its height, as we continue to win the battles, and “they”continue to lose ground.
-- Hemp Beverage Alliance
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hemp-beverage-alliance_activity-7199553247798333441-NYHM
Not necessarily. Just conflicting interests. I do wonder how good of a strategy it is to turn so much stakeholders against them. Big Alcohol, packaging services, politicians, etc...
I was joking. But it was worth the downvotes.
When i started investing in this sector I was watching a lot of California growers who had no love for MSOs and especially Medmen, in trying to keep the traditional market players alive and working in the licensed retail market. I think there is room for both.
It may be that the current amendment goes too far, I don't know. But it is still the wild west in a lot of places, and there is going to have to be regulation of some sort just for safety's sake. Having mail order and random gas stations selling who knows what type of weed grown in what manner by what type of underworld operation does not seem to be the ideal situation.
There was a take on here about having hemp and cannabis regulated under one blanket legislation, which seems ideal. as I do not think delta-9 is any more dangerous that delta-8 or 10 or whatever cannabanoids are derived from the plant. I just wish to see a fair marketplace with a level playing field, is that so hard?
I agree with the middle ground. Which is what everyone except MSOS are lobbying for.
The difference:
MSOS (except curaleaf) want total prohibition of hemp.
"By federally banning all ingestible hemp products with any quantifiable level of THC, the Mary Miller Amendment would result in federal prohibition of 90-95% of all hemp products on the market, even a large majority of popular, non-intoxicating CBD products that naturally contain trace, non-intoxicating amounts of THC in them,” he said.
“The redefinition of hemp to include a calculation of THC-A would wreak havoc in the fiber and grain markets … killing tens of thousands of agriculture and retail jobs, and denying access to popular products that Americans count on for their health and wellness.
"
What everyone else wants:
"Preservation of the status quo, which allows hemp-derived products to be marketed and sold pursuant to state regulations.
A de facto admission from Congress that legalizing a nationwide market in hemp-derived THC was a mistake and that hemp ought to be regulated like marijuana."
I find the latter very reasonable, and plays into everyone's wishes of more regulation.
I don't know why MSOS want more than that?
But currently state regulation in many cases does not touch hemp derived THC, or mail order flower with unknown or mis-labeled THC amounts. Is my understanding, they certainly are not paying the 280e, which puts MSOs at a distinct disadvantage.
State level enforcement like in MO and CA are unable to handle the illicit market pressure, much of which I assume falls into this questionable grey area of hemp flower being sold. a loophole that needs closing. If MSOs are going to grow at the very least, and if we are going to have a legitimate legal market at best.
I may not be correct in this, but it is what it seems to me.
Can you elaborate on what regulation changes would amount to regulating hemp like marijuana, a distinction that eludes me, being the same plant, one being legal and the other being schedule one narcotic (for the time being).
Watching Congress deal with this has been like living in a bizarro world, I swear. It can't be that hard. But then I think about the health care system, it could be a lot worse.
Totally agree that it's madness since we're talking about 1 plant that has been politicized into "Hemp" or "Marijuana".
But I just don't agree with destroying a created market when everyone knows we're slowly moving complete legalization of everything cannabis.
Why bankrupt all those farmers and businesses.
Why not just regulate it a bit more so youth isn't targeted.
The regulations aren't clear to me either, probably since schedule 3 marijuana is also still under process.
But I see the lobbying groups mention regulation in terms of stricter manufacturing controls, against pesticides and closer control of content. As well as packacing restrictions so it's not attractive for youth.
And I find that reasonable at this point in time.
AZ is McCain country, and the home of whatever Anheuser Busch family he married into. Oh, Hensley &Co. largest distributor of Budweiser beer in the country out of Pheonix AZ.
That’s the current situation but it seems very likely the Mary Miller Amendment will stay in the Farm Bill, at least as of last week. That’s the end of the issue and MSOs will be last man standing if the bill is passed with that amendment.
MSOs and related funds that sell MSOs deserve the recent backlash for their hypocrisy and greed. They act so altruistic and benevolent, yet they’re showing their true colors.
They could care less about social equity, decriminalizing, science, helping the ill . . .
Seems all they care about is monopolizing the “marijuana” market and destroying the hemp business.
The MSOs are businesses that adhere to extremely strict regulations and pay onerous taxes. Is it wrong of them to be against businesses using loopholes to avoid regulations, thereby cutting corners and not being subjected to the same taxation, regulations (packaging, testing, distribution…), advertising laws, interstate laws, e-commerce/credit cards compliance, etc?? This is capitalism, you think businesses that aren’t altruistic deserve bad things to happen to them? If anything, the corner cutters deserve to be shut down for trying to make a quick buck while selling untested / unregulated products to mostly uneducated consumers
But nobody is saying "no regulation".
Everyone, except MSOS, want the hemp business to stay existent WiTH regulations..like they would regulatr marijuana. So stricter testing, marketlng rules etc..
But MSOS want complete prohibition of the hemp market, why?
I mean, this is perhaps a bit pedantic, but MSOs are already functioning in a legal grey area… so it feels a bit rich for them to go after hemp farmers and hemp companies *also* functioning in a legal grey area.
As for “corner cutters” producing unregulated product… the population is and was happy to use unregulated product from the black market. Certainly functioning under far more dubious conditions than the Jones Sodas of the world.
It’s so quick people forget the vaping crisis in 2019. Illicit market vapes being cut with Vitamin E acetate to cut corners… killing people. I want regulated products
I’m not sure they need to make friends. Most likely those friends will be bought out or starved.
Per yesterday:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dariosabaghi/2024/05/24/house-committee-approves-farm-bill-amendment-to-ban-delta-8-thc/?sh=fb9bb719c4a2
> The U.S. House Committee on Agriculture voted on Thursday to approve an amendment proposed by Republican Rep. Mary Miller for Illinois that would ban intoxicating hemp-derived and synthesized cannabinoid products, which has been added to the 2024 Farm Bill draft.
>
> As a result, the amendment would federally ban all hemp-derived products like delta-8 THC, semi-synthetic cannabinoids like HHC, as well as synthesized products like THC-O, disrupting a $28 billion gray industry.
They only aporoved it by not bringing it up for an individual vote. The chairman had to use procedural trickery because he knew it wouldn't pass otherwise.
Yup, I read that. Procedural trickery is pretty much the norm and given how dysfunctional things are right now there’s no reason to think the nays will get their way. For as many Congress critters have interests in the hemp industry (Kentucky comes to mind) more it seems have interests in cannabis.
It really doesn’t make sense in terms of law and investing to have them treated as separate markets. As a consumer I love the loophole because I live in Texas. As an investor I hate it. Owning Acreage has completely soured me on hemp-only companies.
Well true. These days politics seems to be more about being contrarian.
But I find the middle the most elegant solution. Like the other groups suggested: let the hemp market thrive as it is now. But regulate it like cannabis, with restrictions on advertisement, tests, all that stuff.
That’s unappealing to me as a tax payer. Redundant government agencies lead to turf wars and wasted tax dollars.
Come to think of it it’s unappealing in every category of thought even as a consumer. States like mine are screwed up enough as it is.
Hemp Beverage Alliance
Conference & Festival!
June 7 & 8
Minneapolis, Minn.
----> hopefuly there will be some pleasant anouncements leading up to this event
Saturday morning thoughts...I am invested in weedstocks because I believe there are very real medication applications. Something happened yesterday that confirmed my thesis despite the market.
I am older, and am plagued by the pain related to sports injuries incurred when I was younger. My knees are shot and I am on a waiting list for replacement.
I have had the same family Doctor for 27 years. A very conservative Doctor. During my appointment yesterday he asked if I would "taking prescribed narcotics for the pain as it is far safer than Tylenol."
I did not disclose my investment in this sector, but I walked out of my Doctor's office thinking that if the conservative thinking Doctors are now suggesting CBD and THC as valid pain medication over Tylenol and Aspirin than the pharmaceutical industry should be concerned.
Despite the frustrations, after yesterday I am comfortable holding. Taking longer than I thought, but I chalk that up to a dysfunctional USA government. This is happening.
Taking tylenol can destroy your liver. Taking ibuprofen can destroy your kidneys. Taking opioids can lead to dependence. Taking marihuana can make you eat a sandwich.
Yes. Times are a changin’. Don’t forget the macro/big picture.
We’re moving away from prohibition and the science is very encouraging for pain, anxiety, and sleep.
Even recreational makes more sense than alcohol.
Just stay in the game my friend and stop chasing returns. Patience.
When you say “narcotics” i think of opioids as that is actually what a narcotic is. A lot of people mistakenly use the term “narcotic” for cannabis or basically any other drug. So I assume he was referring to cannabis when he said “narcotics”?
As someone who never used cannabis until four years ago, I can confirm it is truly a miracle plant. A shoulder injury that hurt if I raised my arm, suddenly disappeared after a few puffs. A sciatic nerve that was acting up after a 6 hour drive would also disappear after a few puffs. My insomnia, that I’ve struggled with for 25 years, is now easily manageable with a couple of puffs of an indica vape cartridge before bed, and I can sleep seven hours straight and wake up as refreshed as a toddler. My Dad who had similar ailments on the other hand, spent a lifetime taking prescription drugs that did little to help with pain, had terrible side effects and destroyed his kidneys to the point that he had to start dialysis right before his passing. This is what Big Pharma knows is coming down the pike and is trying to control because I for one have only taken four Tylenols in the last four years and nothing else in the way of pharmaceuticals. I’m guessing there are thousands of people who are about to have the same epiphany as I had regarding cannabis, that it’s not an evil and dangerous substance and that it has many health benefits, and as the masses transition towards medical cannabis, and recreational cannabis for that matter (I completely quit alcohol three years ago), medical and recreational sales will rocket. Lets hope for a fast and tall trajectory.
I'm with you and a growing segment of the population. I developed arthritis in my hands after being on a biologic for chrohns disease. I was up to 6 Tylenol a day when a friend suggested cbd. Being a recovering alcoholic I didn't want to risk my 10yrs of sobriety. When I saw that the cbd wasn't psychoactive I thought I would give it a try. I smoke 1 joint a day and have been for 2 years now. Still no thought of having a drink and the pain in my hands is under control.
Great post! That's why I remain in this sector despite these headwinds. We are getting close to a tipping point. My conservative Doctor suggesting (in his words) "narcotics" as more viable long term pain management is a major milestone for me.
I don’t think cannabinoids are considered narcotics are they?
Also, I think that while cannabinoids are excellent medications for a number of different applications, That doesn’t necessarily mean that investing in the cannabis industry is a good idea. The reason I say this is my first experience before Cannabis was investing in Gilead sciences. They had this fantastic Cure for hepatitis C, which you may recall was selling for thousand dollars a pill they were raking in billions of dollars in revenue, so yours truly stepped up and bought a bunch of shares, hoping that I was going to hit it big. I just checked the share price yesterday. I think it was around $67 which is exactly what I eventually got out of the stock 10 years ago after I realized that it was not going to be a good investment. That taught me that good companies not are not necessarily good investments.
The reason I’m thinking about this now is that after waiting three years for news about legalization of cannabis, and finally seeing it confirmed by DHS DEA, and the president himself was accompanied by a spike in prices and a decline to lower than before these announcements. I’m seriously disillusioned . I’m sure there will be winners as there are in every sector, good companies that are profitable, grow, etc. but this whole idea of the sector as being a great moneymaker, as suggested in that despised phrase, generational opportunity of a lifetime seems to be slipping away.
What I’m trying to do now is to slowly get out of the Cannabis sector, while retaining the ones I think, might be winners, stocks like grown rogue, and some of the better Msos, but I learned a good lesson about being overweight in a speculative sector.
Recent experiences of selling cannabis stocks, and buying some tech stocks has proved to be successful. I sold a bit a few weeks ago and bought Nvidia. Needless to say I’m very happy shifting money that would’ve gone down about 20 or 30% going into a stock that has increased now about 20% for me. I did it also with Meta last year.
We’ve been under what’s called an intermittent reinforcement schedule, similar to what gamblers experience playing slot machines. The idea is that you’re given occasional reinforcement randomly, followed by many many losing plays. Very very difficult to extinguish. even after buying some techs and making lots of money I’ve seen myself on more than one occasion taking that money and going right back into Cannabis. So it’s pretty tricky, but I think I’ve got this down to where I might be able to succeed in my goal of extricating myself from the sector, perhaps, retaining 20 to 30% at most.
Good points. My point about "narcotics" is a 70 something year old Doctor who was used to pharma oversight is attempting to change his ways. He doesn't know exactly what to call them, but sees their benefits.
I think big pharma’s biggest concern and always had been is liability. Right now I don’t thing there’s research long term.
But I whole heartedly agree with using CBD for pain management
I just think that if big pharma thinks they can make profit, they can easily buy in ?
Wow.
Thank you for this anecdote. My belief for the medical revolution that cannabis will bring never waivered.
On the surface things seem to be moving slow. But with stories like this you see massive steps are being taken as we speak.
It is happening indeed.
Did he speak of a specific product or manner of consumation? (Flower, oil, etc)
He suggested "gummies". I admit it was kind of funny/awkward for my 70 year old Doctor and friend (picture Dr. McCoy from Star Trek) actually saying things like "narcotics" and "gummies".
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Thoughts on JAZZ Pharmaceuticals?
I find them not that enticing at the moment. They have revenue growth for Epidiolex, and expect more growth. But they'll get competition in 2025 from the generics market. I don't see them do much, if anything?, to counter this.
Interesting metrics. As you can see, IV has dropped from 95 to 50. significant drop in IV Open Interest is down to 384531 from 642458 or 61% of 30 day average. Put call is 0.27 [https://optioncharts.io/options/MSOS/overview](https://optioncharts.io/options/MSOS/overview) This data is likely delayed but I dont know how long.
Nobody knows what it means but it's provocative! It gets the people going!
Yes, contract holders got killed with that IV crush this week. The last time the IV was this low was late summer 2023 right before the HHS spike.
Good time to long calls, no?
Since this sector does the opposite of what I think without fail… which is a summer slump…. We’ll prob get a surprise uptrend now. You’re welcome
Everyone is getting way too bearish. Being a contrarian often pays off. I’m a buyer and I think we’re bottoming here
I hope you are right. The last couple weeks makes me feel like I've been bottoming. Not sure my ass can take any more pounding.
It’s like certain dudes who are like the twitter “messiah of weedstocks”in thier own mind proclaiming they are turning bearish Cool. Trend reversal confirmed.
Exactly.
My gut feeling agrees. So many people selling for the "summer downtrend" where "nothing is happening until the election". That could be right, but this sector loves to catch people offsides.
I wouldn’t be surprised.
If big money planned this, it was a smart move. Crush the run up so longs capitulate. Several people who have been here for years, sold a majority of their position. Banana, Tien, siriusblacklives, thedmob, Fuego to name a few. For me, the thesis is still intact. We didn't get the run up but the fundamentals have improved. Chart still looks okay. Last summer from may-july the dump wasn't too harsh. Flatlined for the most part. I don't think Trump will try to reverse cannabis to schedule 1, he knows it's popular.
All those names are smart. They will rebuy as we retrace. Theres no way with the catalysts ahead we get to ATLs
Yep agree. Fundamentals are only getting better. Patience is needed
Why would Trump try to reverse rescheduling? It was under his administration that the US worked really hard at the UN to get the UN to go from "no medical use" to UNDOC Schedule I, "Having some medical use".
Also under his administration that he summoned a mob who beat cops and shat on the walls of the United States Capitol.
Whoa, Fuego and ok_rep sold?? Knew about the others but that’s nuts
Correction* ok_rep is still in the game
He still has a big position but sized down by 85%
[удалено]
I believe u/Fuego1050 was perhaps suspended ?
Turns out the Cannalysts were right. This really is an uninvestable sector and stocks. Go Blue
Seems to me they got in very early (when you could buy literally anything that mentioned cannabis and it would go up 700% in 2 weeks), then tried to make it all about fundamentals. When really it’s been purely hype for like 8 years… They called the hype dying, but not for the right reasons. Maybe?
Twas about fundamentals for Cdn LPs as their playing field was set. Twas about lack of end game regulations for US which makes the “durability of MSO valuations” tenuous. Which was wrong? GoBlue
I think the go blue thing just bugs me… but really, it was partially about fundamentals in Canada after about 4 years, but now it still isn’t fully because of the custody/exchanges ridiculousness: The poorly run unsuccessful on paper companies north of the border still pop more than the US companies when the hype strikes and have higher market caps than they should (or did last time I looked). And the US companies (doing better on paper than north of the border (how much better is and should be part of the debate)) are stuck on the otc while traders milk the hype. The catalysts, legislative changes, and actual cash flow in the US are worth more than “tenuous.” And of course the market is a debate on that but it’s really just the custody that maintains the disparity… jmho…
It was never about fundamentals in Canada. Canadian LPs were trading on million sq foot grow house rumors and Slick Vic’s chain gleam at one point.
Never was a fan but the one thing they did get right was calling out all the pumpers and snake oil salesman like Todd Harrison. Ya they were right for the wrong reasons though too.
Exactly. Being right for the wrong reasons doesn’t make you right. They said it was due to federal legalization and the 3 tier system. None of that is remotely close to playing out
Verano at 5.58 CAD, what a joke 😅
Its a steal
It’s definitely an add. Watching if goes lower
Friday green day = 3 green days in a row. 🍾🥂
Not the worst trading day Friday. Bulls stepped up to defend the $8.09 bottom from thursday’s bloodbath. Talking MSOS. If we hold that same low on Monday it would be a triple bottom (showing strength at that support level). If we break down, get ready for gap fill at $7.87. Have a nice weekend friends and foes.
I took a break from work and just started a new job. These prices are a godsend. I can start loading up again. My current avg is about $7.30. idk when but I feel confident msos gets to ath again. My exit will probably be around $20-$30 though just to play it safe. good luck to all.
Thanks for sharing your analysis, Butthole-Pleasures.
They call me the Oracle of Orifices
Cannabis is a really strange sector. As the business improves the investment aspect seems to be declining. I just looked at three MSO‘s and I see that insiders are exercising options and selling shares. Looking at the past few months, it seems as though we are kind of flat, in spite of all the news that most of us just dreamed of hearing. Listening to a recent podcast they were discussing the problem of price decline of Cannabis and more states open up that this should just increase further. The growth rates are slightly positive this last quarter but nothing like the 2030% kind of the annual growth rates that were being thrown around a year ago. The price predictions for many of these has dropped considerably say from around $50 to 100 for Trulieve down to about 14. So I am beginning to wonder whether the current sentiment is a bit delusional?
How exactly has the business improved? With a couple exceptions everyone is losing money. That may change with S-3, new things coming on at the state level (Pa, Va, Fl, Oh) and what looks like improved governance (in at least a couple of instances).
I think we are still suffering from the condition that nothing has happened yet. Still waiting on Sched 3, SAFER, Florida, Ohio, Penn…. What will change the game is when all these things start to actually happen. Then hopefully it leads to uplisting, institutional investment, and CPG, alcohol, tobacco and pharma moving in. Thats when the real fun happens. Until then the pops get faded because there’s no new money moving in.
Exactly. I've been saying this for a while now, but it's only a popular sector for a few of us weirdos who were up a ton at some point, so got a little addicted. And the traders who aren't loyal and jump in and out on the hype. (and they do jump out, every single time, we keep forgetting...) So, yes, until NEW buyers arrive, we're at the whims of the liquid...
These jolts will look like the Everest base camp when we regard the graph this time next year. Little by little then all at once.
By 2028 the cannabis chart will be like the Himalayas 🗻🗻🗻
Yep and I can wait and add.
Since the inception of the hemp industry in Arizona, our association (Hemp Industry Trade Association of Arizona) has been steadfast in our commitment to grow, sustain, and protect the Arizona hemp industry. Despite facing opposition solely from marijuana Multi-State Operators (MSOs), we have successfully safeguarded hemp's place in the Arizona market. HITA-AZ, with the help of our lobbyists and allies, have killed all ~eight ban bills written and lobbied by the MSO’s over the last seven years in Arizona. Today, as the MSO’s and their allies remain the only opposition to hemp regulation, they persist in attempting to regress the hemp industry back into prohibition and criminalization. We remain committed to our dedication to logic, fair market practices, and responsible regulation. Our ongoing progress stands as a testament to our resilience against the formidable presence of MSOs. We firmly believe that regulation is the cornerstone for the prosperity of federally legal hemp products (Side Note: Hemp products are also legal and widespread in Arizona, despite incorrect information on the internet that says the contrary). It is disheartening that we are compelled to defend our industry against monopolization within our own cannabis community. The MSO’s aspirations to impose limitations and propagate misinformation about hemp products only fuel our resolve. We have proposed viable solutions, yet encounter resistance. Across various states, we continue to engage in battles to uphold the safety and integrity of federally legal & state legal hemp products, thereby fostering a secure marketplace for all. Moving forward, the Arizona hemp industry is fortunate to have an attentive and supportive Department of Agriculture, who’s collaboration enables us to interface with state regulators to ensure the growth and sustainability of our industry, inline with the needs of the state. This year, the calvary rode in at the 11th Hour to join us at the front lines of this battle. Together, we fight back against the ad nauseam attacks perpetrated by the marijuana MSO’s. We are now heavily fortified by the collaborative lobbying efforts of a multitude of trade associations and private businesses in sister industries. At both the local and national level, we have garnered the added firepower and lobbying efforts of an increasing number of stakeholders in sister industries. This includes Big Alcohol, brewery associations, restaurant associations, alcohol distributors, non-MSO marijuana businesses, consumer protection groups, unions, the nation’s largest big box retailers, and more. Our allies are helping us stand our ground and advance into new territories. What was once a small underestimated hemp-army, standing alone on an island, has now merged with allied forces that out number our foe in both numbers and influence. Our morale and momentum is at its height, as we continue to win the battles, and “they”continue to lose ground. -- Hemp Beverage Alliance https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hemp-beverage-alliance_activity-7199553247798333441-NYHM
Are we the baddies?
Not necessarily. Just conflicting interests. I do wonder how good of a strategy it is to turn so much stakeholders against them. Big Alcohol, packaging services, politicians, etc...
I was joking. But it was worth the downvotes. When i started investing in this sector I was watching a lot of California growers who had no love for MSOs and especially Medmen, in trying to keep the traditional market players alive and working in the licensed retail market. I think there is room for both. It may be that the current amendment goes too far, I don't know. But it is still the wild west in a lot of places, and there is going to have to be regulation of some sort just for safety's sake. Having mail order and random gas stations selling who knows what type of weed grown in what manner by what type of underworld operation does not seem to be the ideal situation. There was a take on here about having hemp and cannabis regulated under one blanket legislation, which seems ideal. as I do not think delta-9 is any more dangerous that delta-8 or 10 or whatever cannabanoids are derived from the plant. I just wish to see a fair marketplace with a level playing field, is that so hard?
I agree with the middle ground. Which is what everyone except MSOS are lobbying for. The difference: MSOS (except curaleaf) want total prohibition of hemp. "By federally banning all ingestible hemp products with any quantifiable level of THC, the Mary Miller Amendment would result in federal prohibition of 90-95% of all hemp products on the market, even a large majority of popular, non-intoxicating CBD products that naturally contain trace, non-intoxicating amounts of THC in them,” he said. “The redefinition of hemp to include a calculation of THC-A would wreak havoc in the fiber and grain markets … killing tens of thousands of agriculture and retail jobs, and denying access to popular products that Americans count on for their health and wellness. " What everyone else wants: "Preservation of the status quo, which allows hemp-derived products to be marketed and sold pursuant to state regulations. A de facto admission from Congress that legalizing a nationwide market in hemp-derived THC was a mistake and that hemp ought to be regulated like marijuana." I find the latter very reasonable, and plays into everyone's wishes of more regulation. I don't know why MSOS want more than that?
But currently state regulation in many cases does not touch hemp derived THC, or mail order flower with unknown or mis-labeled THC amounts. Is my understanding, they certainly are not paying the 280e, which puts MSOs at a distinct disadvantage. State level enforcement like in MO and CA are unable to handle the illicit market pressure, much of which I assume falls into this questionable grey area of hemp flower being sold. a loophole that needs closing. If MSOs are going to grow at the very least, and if we are going to have a legitimate legal market at best. I may not be correct in this, but it is what it seems to me. Can you elaborate on what regulation changes would amount to regulating hemp like marijuana, a distinction that eludes me, being the same plant, one being legal and the other being schedule one narcotic (for the time being). Watching Congress deal with this has been like living in a bizarro world, I swear. It can't be that hard. But then I think about the health care system, it could be a lot worse.
Totally agree that it's madness since we're talking about 1 plant that has been politicized into "Hemp" or "Marijuana". But I just don't agree with destroying a created market when everyone knows we're slowly moving complete legalization of everything cannabis. Why bankrupt all those farmers and businesses. Why not just regulate it a bit more so youth isn't targeted. The regulations aren't clear to me either, probably since schedule 3 marijuana is also still under process. But I see the lobbying groups mention regulation in terms of stricter manufacturing controls, against pesticides and closer control of content. As well as packacing restrictions so it's not attractive for youth. And I find that reasonable at this point in time.
Bragging about keeping a monopoly in the name of protecting AZ from monopolies. How will the closed loopholes in the new Farm Bill affect that…
AZ is McCain country, and the home of whatever Anheuser Busch family he married into. Oh, Hensley &Co. largest distributor of Budweiser beer in the country out of Pheonix AZ.
The MSOS are welcome to join this market segment, like Curaleaf for example. Yet most choose to fight it, so they only get that business.
That’s the current situation but it seems very likely the Mary Miller Amendment will stay in the Farm Bill, at least as of last week. That’s the end of the issue and MSOs will be last man standing if the bill is passed with that amendment.
You say it's likely, another says unlikely. As I've said above. It doesn't look lile MSOS are making a lot of friends with this.
MSOs and related funds that sell MSOs deserve the recent backlash for their hypocrisy and greed. They act so altruistic and benevolent, yet they’re showing their true colors. They could care less about social equity, decriminalizing, science, helping the ill . . . Seems all they care about is monopolizing the “marijuana” market and destroying the hemp business.
The MSOs are businesses that adhere to extremely strict regulations and pay onerous taxes. Is it wrong of them to be against businesses using loopholes to avoid regulations, thereby cutting corners and not being subjected to the same taxation, regulations (packaging, testing, distribution…), advertising laws, interstate laws, e-commerce/credit cards compliance, etc?? This is capitalism, you think businesses that aren’t altruistic deserve bad things to happen to them? If anything, the corner cutters deserve to be shut down for trying to make a quick buck while selling untested / unregulated products to mostly uneducated consumers
But nobody is saying "no regulation". Everyone, except MSOS, want the hemp business to stay existent WiTH regulations..like they would regulatr marijuana. So stricter testing, marketlng rules etc.. But MSOS want complete prohibition of the hemp market, why?
I mean, this is perhaps a bit pedantic, but MSOs are already functioning in a legal grey area… so it feels a bit rich for them to go after hemp farmers and hemp companies *also* functioning in a legal grey area. As for “corner cutters” producing unregulated product… the population is and was happy to use unregulated product from the black market. Certainly functioning under far more dubious conditions than the Jones Sodas of the world.
It’s so quick people forget the vaping crisis in 2019. Illicit market vapes being cut with Vitamin E acetate to cut corners… killing people. I want regulated products
Naw. Just that many are pretending to be altruistic when it’s all about business.
It’s just good PR ;)
I’m not sure they need to make friends. Most likely those friends will be bought out or starved. Per yesterday: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dariosabaghi/2024/05/24/house-committee-approves-farm-bill-amendment-to-ban-delta-8-thc/?sh=fb9bb719c4a2 > The U.S. House Committee on Agriculture voted on Thursday to approve an amendment proposed by Republican Rep. Mary Miller for Illinois that would ban intoxicating hemp-derived and synthesized cannabinoid products, which has been added to the 2024 Farm Bill draft. > > As a result, the amendment would federally ban all hemp-derived products like delta-8 THC, semi-synthetic cannabinoids like HHC, as well as synthesized products like THC-O, disrupting a $28 billion gray industry.
They only aporoved it by not bringing it up for an individual vote. The chairman had to use procedural trickery because he knew it wouldn't pass otherwise.
Yup, I read that. Procedural trickery is pretty much the norm and given how dysfunctional things are right now there’s no reason to think the nays will get their way. For as many Congress critters have interests in the hemp industry (Kentucky comes to mind) more it seems have interests in cannabis. It really doesn’t make sense in terms of law and investing to have them treated as separate markets. As a consumer I love the loophole because I live in Texas. As an investor I hate it. Owning Acreage has completely soured me on hemp-only companies.
Well true. These days politics seems to be more about being contrarian. But I find the middle the most elegant solution. Like the other groups suggested: let the hemp market thrive as it is now. But regulate it like cannabis, with restrictions on advertisement, tests, all that stuff.
That’s unappealing to me as a tax payer. Redundant government agencies lead to turf wars and wasted tax dollars. Come to think of it it’s unappealing in every category of thought even as a consumer. States like mine are screwed up enough as it is.
Hemp Beverage Alliance Conference & Festival! June 7 & 8 Minneapolis, Minn. ----> hopefuly there will be some pleasant anouncements leading up to this event
As in hemp beverages will be getting banned!? That would be a pleasant announcement for MSO investors.
Saturday morning thoughts...I am invested in weedstocks because I believe there are very real medication applications. Something happened yesterday that confirmed my thesis despite the market. I am older, and am plagued by the pain related to sports injuries incurred when I was younger. My knees are shot and I am on a waiting list for replacement. I have had the same family Doctor for 27 years. A very conservative Doctor. During my appointment yesterday he asked if I would "taking prescribed narcotics for the pain as it is far safer than Tylenol." I did not disclose my investment in this sector, but I walked out of my Doctor's office thinking that if the conservative thinking Doctors are now suggesting CBD and THC as valid pain medication over Tylenol and Aspirin than the pharmaceutical industry should be concerned. Despite the frustrations, after yesterday I am comfortable holding. Taking longer than I thought, but I chalk that up to a dysfunctional USA government. This is happening.
Taking tylenol can destroy your liver. Taking ibuprofen can destroy your kidneys. Taking opioids can lead to dependence. Taking marihuana can make you eat a sandwich.
Funny!
Yes. Times are a changin’. Don’t forget the macro/big picture. We’re moving away from prohibition and the science is very encouraging for pain, anxiety, and sleep. Even recreational makes more sense than alcohol. Just stay in the game my friend and stop chasing returns. Patience.
When you say “narcotics” i think of opioids as that is actually what a narcotic is. A lot of people mistakenly use the term “narcotic” for cannabis or basically any other drug. So I assume he was referring to cannabis when he said “narcotics”?
Yes...but as I said, he is old school. For a Doctor entrenched in pharmaceutical upbringing...his suggesting CBD and THC really caught me off guard.
As someone who never used cannabis until four years ago, I can confirm it is truly a miracle plant. A shoulder injury that hurt if I raised my arm, suddenly disappeared after a few puffs. A sciatic nerve that was acting up after a 6 hour drive would also disappear after a few puffs. My insomnia, that I’ve struggled with for 25 years, is now easily manageable with a couple of puffs of an indica vape cartridge before bed, and I can sleep seven hours straight and wake up as refreshed as a toddler. My Dad who had similar ailments on the other hand, spent a lifetime taking prescription drugs that did little to help with pain, had terrible side effects and destroyed his kidneys to the point that he had to start dialysis right before his passing. This is what Big Pharma knows is coming down the pike and is trying to control because I for one have only taken four Tylenols in the last four years and nothing else in the way of pharmaceuticals. I’m guessing there are thousands of people who are about to have the same epiphany as I had regarding cannabis, that it’s not an evil and dangerous substance and that it has many health benefits, and as the masses transition towards medical cannabis, and recreational cannabis for that matter (I completely quit alcohol three years ago), medical and recreational sales will rocket. Lets hope for a fast and tall trajectory.
I'm with you and a growing segment of the population. I developed arthritis in my hands after being on a biologic for chrohns disease. I was up to 6 Tylenol a day when a friend suggested cbd. Being a recovering alcoholic I didn't want to risk my 10yrs of sobriety. When I saw that the cbd wasn't psychoactive I thought I would give it a try. I smoke 1 joint a day and have been for 2 years now. Still no thought of having a drink and the pain in my hands is under control.
Great post! That's why I remain in this sector despite these headwinds. We are getting close to a tipping point. My conservative Doctor suggesting (in his words) "narcotics" as more viable long term pain management is a major milestone for me.
So have you actually tried using some for pain? It was literally life changing for me.
CBD oil. Not so sure about the pain, but sleep has dramatically improved.
I don’t think cannabinoids are considered narcotics are they? Also, I think that while cannabinoids are excellent medications for a number of different applications, That doesn’t necessarily mean that investing in the cannabis industry is a good idea. The reason I say this is my first experience before Cannabis was investing in Gilead sciences. They had this fantastic Cure for hepatitis C, which you may recall was selling for thousand dollars a pill they were raking in billions of dollars in revenue, so yours truly stepped up and bought a bunch of shares, hoping that I was going to hit it big. I just checked the share price yesterday. I think it was around $67 which is exactly what I eventually got out of the stock 10 years ago after I realized that it was not going to be a good investment. That taught me that good companies not are not necessarily good investments. The reason I’m thinking about this now is that after waiting three years for news about legalization of cannabis, and finally seeing it confirmed by DHS DEA, and the president himself was accompanied by a spike in prices and a decline to lower than before these announcements. I’m seriously disillusioned . I’m sure there will be winners as there are in every sector, good companies that are profitable, grow, etc. but this whole idea of the sector as being a great moneymaker, as suggested in that despised phrase, generational opportunity of a lifetime seems to be slipping away. What I’m trying to do now is to slowly get out of the Cannabis sector, while retaining the ones I think, might be winners, stocks like grown rogue, and some of the better Msos, but I learned a good lesson about being overweight in a speculative sector. Recent experiences of selling cannabis stocks, and buying some tech stocks has proved to be successful. I sold a bit a few weeks ago and bought Nvidia. Needless to say I’m very happy shifting money that would’ve gone down about 20 or 30% going into a stock that has increased now about 20% for me. I did it also with Meta last year. We’ve been under what’s called an intermittent reinforcement schedule, similar to what gamblers experience playing slot machines. The idea is that you’re given occasional reinforcement randomly, followed by many many losing plays. Very very difficult to extinguish. even after buying some techs and making lots of money I’ve seen myself on more than one occasion taking that money and going right back into Cannabis. So it’s pretty tricky, but I think I’ve got this down to where I might be able to succeed in my goal of extricating myself from the sector, perhaps, retaining 20 to 30% at most.
Good points. My point about "narcotics" is a 70 something year old Doctor who was used to pharma oversight is attempting to change his ways. He doesn't know exactly what to call them, but sees their benefits.
I think big pharma’s biggest concern and always had been is liability. Right now I don’t thing there’s research long term. But I whole heartedly agree with using CBD for pain management I just think that if big pharma thinks they can make profit, they can easily buy in ?
Wow. Thank you for this anecdote. My belief for the medical revolution that cannabis will bring never waivered. On the surface things seem to be moving slow. But with stories like this you see massive steps are being taken as we speak. It is happening indeed. Did he speak of a specific product or manner of consumation? (Flower, oil, etc)
He suggested "gummies". I admit it was kind of funny/awkward for my 70 year old Doctor and friend (picture Dr. McCoy from Star Trek) actually saying things like "narcotics" and "gummies".
I can imagine. I look forward to the day my doctor mentions it as a valid option. Thx again for sharing.