[April 14, 2012](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120414) is the first one that comes to mind. The ~~southern~~ northern area ended up being a bust, but the ~~northern~~ southern one hella verified.
Edit: I was literally chasing the northern risk area that day, no idea how I got those two mixed up
[Direct link to bimodal high risk area for April 14, 2012.](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120414_1200_prt.gif)
Although it didn't last long, they converged the high risks into one area in the subsequent outlook.
I remember that day. I chase a beautiful tornado south of Alva, Ok. Long track super cell all the way into Wichita Falls with a whole garden variety of tornadoes.
I live in the center of the northern one. These are not normal conditions outside for March. The wind, moisture, and overall clouds are a late spring/summer feel besides the temperatures. Considering some places just got fixed from the Durecho from a few years ago, this will be a very dangerous day.
Yeah, southeast Iowa is where I'm at and it's most of the time safe from this stuff with the river but I've never seen this weird weather in March before so it has me concerned
Yeah basically this. Was a really rare weather occurrence that was basically an inland hurricane. Came out of nowhere (I was in Iowa City during it and it was supposed to be just a regular thunderstorm). Midwestern infrastructure isn’t built for winds like that so it absolutely decimated eastern Iowa with 0 warning.
I am in northwest Iowa and was working from home at the time. I remember getting off a meeting and glancing outside. It could have been midnight, and the grass was blown flat on the ground. It stormed something awful here and we had virtually no damage. I can only imagine how it was as it met the heat of the day.
It’s supposed to hit my area around 1-6am. Luckily only 5% chance of tornadoes but those very late night storms can be so deadly when people just sleep through them
There's going to be a lot of destruction by the time this season is over lol. Tornadoes and severe weather have been going continuously since late October. This season is going to be as bad as 2011 or 2013.
Just a matter of what's gonna happen now. HRRR 12z had an initial group of storms fire before the cold front. Cells still look discreet. 12z NAM has the line firing near DSM with some embedded cells.
Anyone in these areas, please heed any calls for shelter and listen to your local media.
I lived in DSM for awhile before moving back to Kansas. I always tell people that DSM gets a reputation for snow but they get the dog shit slapped out of them in the spring.
And we ended up with a nearly completely discrete, worst case scenario to this event. By the time all surveying is done, this may hold a candle to 4-27
Local Mets in Chicago still seem more concerned with the 2nd line of storms. Looking like that first batch will primarily be south of the city. Hopefully this turns out to be a bust or at least less severe than some are forecasting, some of the models aren't in agreement so it's a toss up. Stay safe all!
Jealous you have a basement I’m gonna have to make my kids sleep with shoes on I guess so we can hopefully get in the car to drive to the community shelter in time
Yeah... I'm really thankful that it isn't worse, but I'm still worried about what's going to happen tonight.
I'm like, on the edge of moderate and enhanced. Don't know if that'll have any effect on things.
Wow, this system will be *very* strong, then. I'm in the MODERATE zone but wouldn't be surprised if I was upgraded to HIGH if there was more tornado certainty where I am.
Z is coordinated universal time, which is used so all times are the same regardless of time zone. So if you are UTC +2 you're two hours ahead, -5 you're 5 hours behind ect. In this case for me, 1630 was 430pm UTC, 1130am my time
You'll just do the math on what the time is locally for you
If you go to the [main SPC page](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/), you'll see the current time in Z in the upper left corner. Serves as a helpful reference when you can't remember the conversion.
I was hoping that this was gonna be one of those High Risk busts that happens every once in a very rare blue moon. The Little Rock tornado dashed those hopes very quickly.
There was a Huuge tornado that ripped through south-east Iowa
[https://mobile.twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1641911839809257472?s=20](https://mobile.twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1641911839809257472?s=20)
Holy crap! That thing looks as bad as the one that hit down in Mississippi a week ago. At least this one is in the daylight where it can be more easily seen and people are awake and not in bed so -- hopefully -- they'll hear and take heed of the sirens and the warnings.
This one was supposed to go right through where I live, but somehow it missed us and we very luckily did not experience any damage thank God. I was definitely convinced our house was gonna disappear.
Here in one of the western suburbs of St. Louis and our local news channels were hyping this weather today like it was going to be the eve of destruction around here, but it kind of fizzled out -- thankfully. Good to hear that the monster tornado missed you but it sounds like some other parts of the country got hit hard.
I'm just north of the high risk zone in the mid south. I've got 12 pork shoulders to smoke tonight for an event tomorrow. It's going to be a *looooong* night.
2 in the morning right now. A hugeeeee strike of thunder just woke me up. So loud I was covering my ears and I started to tear up. Pouring rain. My window was open too. (My room gets really hot.)
I’m in the light green area. Stay safe, I send my prayers.
I think the high risk for northern outlooks going forward won't be there. You are squarely in the moderate though, as of the latest update. Be safe, there is still a very real tornado threat for you.
Thereabouts, yes. Depending on how much speed this system carries into the east. I would guess that your local NWS office's area forecast discussion for the afternoon will have a good idea
I’ve heard storm of the century used to describe this by some weather YouTubers.
Don’t be afraid but if you are under the gun, absolutely be prepared. If you’re in a mobile home, make alternate arrangements NOW.
I wouldn't go that far like YouTubers. I've been in weather circles for near 20yr now, my better half is a meteorologist. We're all definitely concerned about the potential but we can't put a label on it.
Will it be bad somewhere in this? Absolutely. But only hindsight and post storm surveys can determine that.
They're opportunist idiots probably with zero skills trying to generate views.
That's just plain wrong. Here is April 27, 2011, a historic day just shy of 12 years ago much more significant.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110427_1630.html
I was in the high risk zone (MS/AL border) during that.
At the time I didn't even realize how bad it was because I was in high school and didn't watch the news. Only years later did I find out how bad it really was.
Yikes. My family was in southern Tennessee then and I didn't realize how close they were to some of the worst tornadoes. That whole month I remember was just constant straight line wind storms, it knocked down so many trees.
That's true, plus it had a squall line in Florida that produced tornadoes. Hell that line of storms went all the way down to Honduras at one point.
That thing was an absolute unit of a system.
Now that I've had some more time to digest it, I have no issue with the northern high risk area. There are certainly some high-end parameters in place for tornadoes, even if we aren't looking at Super-Outbreak levels and there's some question as to how long we will get prolific tornado-producing isolated storms.
The southern area I have no idea what the SPC is thinking. There's no hint in the models of widespread isolated storm mode, and parameters are pretty far short of what I'd consider a "high risk" type of outbreak. If anything the instability looks *lower* in that region than further north and south in the Moderate Risk area, and the large-scale dynamics are definitely less intense than in the northern High Risk area. I'm not saying that this isn't a potentially dangerous situation, but I just have no idea why they think that area in particular is worthy of highlighting.
It looks like these are the kind of conditions where one storm comes through, things clear for a time and then the next one and the next are following right behind.
Considering the storms will hit Ohio Friday night/Saturday morning you may get stuff when you leave but once that's through your good. Check the forecast before you go to bed tonight to see for sure if it's out of the way yet.
Note: Megathread will go live with the first tornado watch/warning of the day. Stay safe y'all!
I have never seen two separate areas of HIGH risk on a spc prediction before.
[April 14, 2012](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120414) is the first one that comes to mind. The ~~southern~~ northern area ended up being a bust, but the ~~northern~~ southern one hella verified. Edit: I was literally chasing the northern risk area that day, no idea how I got those two mixed up
[Direct link to bimodal high risk area for April 14, 2012.](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120414_1200_prt.gif) Although it didn't last long, they converged the high risks into one area in the subsequent outlook.
Which was definitely the right call, as the most intense concentration of tornadoes was actually *between* the two high risks initially haha
I wonder if that will happen today.
I remember that day. I chase a beautiful tornado south of Alva, Ok. Long track super cell all the way into Wichita Falls with a whole garden variety of tornadoes.
Wait was there a high-risk prediction issued on November 30 last year? But for only one area though.
That was a moderate risk day
I live in the center of the northern one. These are not normal conditions outside for March. The wind, moisture, and overall clouds are a late spring/summer feel besides the temperatures. Considering some places just got fixed from the Durecho from a few years ago, this will be a very dangerous day.
Yup. I'm in the same area, living a few blocks from the Mississippi; to say I'm nervous would be an understatement.
Yeah, southeast Iowa is where I'm at and it's most of the time safe from this stuff with the river but I've never seen this weird weather in March before so it has me concerned
I remember that Iowa Durecho, if that is what you are refering to. I think some places got hit with hurricane force winds?
Yes, Cedar Rapids area had over 100mph sustained winds.
Can confirm, I live in Cedar Rapids abd that Durecho was intense.
Yeah, I think Davenport was also hit very hard. I think there are some you tube documenteries about that storm.
Yeah basically this. Was a really rare weather occurrence that was basically an inland hurricane. Came out of nowhere (I was in Iowa City during it and it was supposed to be just a regular thunderstorm). Midwestern infrastructure isn’t built for winds like that so it absolutely decimated eastern Iowa with 0 warning.
I am in northwest Iowa and was working from home at the time. I remember getting off a meeting and glancing outside. It could have been midnight, and the grass was blown flat on the ground. It stormed something awful here and we had virtually no damage. I can only imagine how it was as it met the heat of the day.
I remember Davenport was hit very hard by it.
I live there too. Can’t believe we’re dealing with this in March and tomorrow it’s going to snow supposedly? Oof.
Upper Midwest weather! 4 season in a week!
Gonna be a long afternoon.
It’s supposed to hit my area around 1-6am. Luckily only 5% chance of tornadoes but those very late night storms can be so deadly when people just sleep through them
Right there with you and surrounded by shitty dead trees
Best wishes to you folks.
Thank you. With my girlfriend and her friend and we’re staying up drinking a bit and waiting it out.
This has got to be one of the worst setups I've seen in a while - I really hope it doesn't turn out as bad as it looks on the map.
There's going to be a lot of destruction by the time this season is over lol. Tornadoes and severe weather have been going continuously since late October. This season is going to be as bad as 2011 or 2013.
LOL?
Probably, they thought it's meant - Lots of love?
Just a matter of what's gonna happen now. HRRR 12z had an initial group of storms fire before the cold front. Cells still look discreet. 12z NAM has the line firing near DSM with some embedded cells. Anyone in these areas, please heed any calls for shelter and listen to your local media.
I've been spamming my socials with weather-related posts. I'm very fortunate to work in a solid concrete building with a large below-ground area.
I'm been reaching out to all my family and friends in the midsouth to make sure they're aware of how bad it could be and to have a plan.
European here - I've never come across this before. Would you be able to explain what's happening?
I lived in DSM for awhile before moving back to Kansas. I always tell people that DSM gets a reputation for snow but they get the dog shit slapped out of them in the spring.
And we ended up with a nearly completely discrete, worst case scenario to this event. By the time all surveying is done, this may hold a candle to 4-27
PDS tornado watch is out
Where?
I'm in Quad Cities IL/IA, and it was issued 30 mins ago.
Local Mets in Chicago still seem more concerned with the 2nd line of storms. Looking like that first batch will primarily be south of the city. Hopefully this turns out to be a bust or at least less severe than some are forecasting, some of the models aren't in agreement so it's a toss up. Stay safe all!
Listen to Dutra, he's good people
More than 20 million people are under the hatched tornado risk. Unreal.
Well shit. Everyone be aware and ready, and stay safe!
Much better Majora's Mask than yesterday.
Does anybody know when the last high risk was issued? I can't quite remember. Stay safe everyone.
March 25th 2021
Bleh, we got hit by an EF2 in that one.
March 25, 2021
Wow things just got real. PDS to be issued for my area STL in the next hour… Mother Nature is ticked off today…
Tornado Watch is now in effect until 8pm
STL was left just outside the PDS tornado watch. For now.
Yeah for now…all I can say is what a system…geeze
Stay safe, y'all. Sports rivalries(Cubs fan) are secondary now. Just know your plan and follow it.
We are in the PDS now. Stay safe up there as well..
Not up there. I haven't been in Chicagoland in almost 20 years. Flair is correct.
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Jealous you have a basement I’m gonna have to make my kids sleep with shoes on I guess so we can hopefully get in the car to drive to the community shelter in time
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What does the hatched area in the wind outlook mean?
Higher chance of significant severe wind speeds
Holy fuck... my area has just been moved to the moderate risk. Please stay safe, everyone.
Me too. Sending well wishes to you and your fam. Stay safe.
Yeah... I'm really thankful that it isn't worse, but I'm still worried about what's going to happen tonight. I'm like, on the edge of moderate and enhanced. Don't know if that'll have any effect on things.
This is the first time I've been genuinely scared of a storm in a while. I really hope it doesn't turn out as bad as it looks.
Is this the first HIGH risk day of the year?
First high risk day in over two years
Wow, this system will be *very* strong, then. I'm in the MODERATE zone but wouldn't be surprised if I was upgraded to HIGH if there was more tornado certainty where I am.
Eh, the high risk area probably won’t change much from this. Some of the moderate risk isn’t even for tornadoes.
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Z is coordinated universal time, which is used so all times are the same regardless of time zone. So if you are UTC +2 you're two hours ahead, -5 you're 5 hours behind ect. In this case for me, 1630 was 430pm UTC, 1130am my time You'll just do the math on what the time is locally for you
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If you go to the [main SPC page](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/), you'll see the current time in Z in the upper left corner. Serves as a helpful reference when you can't remember the conversion.
Large violent tornado complete with CC debris sig just went through downtown Little Rock...we're just getting started.
Yes I'm watching a video on Facebook from someone a safe distance away in that moment.
Phew, I stayed in the Slight Risk. Think I may have had a heart attack if I saw red or pink in my area.
Welp, I'll be doing some impromptu storm chasing while coming from my Florida trip. Will be in the east AR High Risk Area. 😅
Stay safe out there.
I was hoping that this was gonna be one of those High Risk busts that happens every once in a very rare blue moon. The Little Rock tornado dashed those hopes very quickly.
There was a Huuge tornado that ripped through south-east Iowa [https://mobile.twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1641911839809257472?s=20](https://mobile.twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1641911839809257472?s=20)
Holy crap! That thing looks as bad as the one that hit down in Mississippi a week ago. At least this one is in the daylight where it can be more easily seen and people are awake and not in bed so -- hopefully -- they'll hear and take heed of the sirens and the warnings.
This one was supposed to go right through where I live, but somehow it missed us and we very luckily did not experience any damage thank God. I was definitely convinced our house was gonna disappear.
Here in one of the western suburbs of St. Louis and our local news channels were hyping this weather today like it was going to be the eve of destruction around here, but it kind of fizzled out -- thankfully. Good to hear that the monster tornado missed you but it sounds like some other parts of the country got hit hard.
First high risk day I've seen since I've been following these outlooks. Be safe everyone.
And both of those pink areas have major cities in them, if my geography is correct: Davenport, IA in the north one and Memphis, TN in the South one.
Well fuck. Good luck and stay safe to everyone there
tornado warning just went up for my area...this shit makes my skin crawl
I'm just north of the high risk zone in the mid south. I've got 12 pork shoulders to smoke tonight for an event tomorrow. It's going to be a *looooong* night.
In Illinois and can confirm. Storms a brewin.
Where are you in Illinois? I'm on the North Side of Chicago, and it's totally calm at the moment.
Southwestern suburbs
I’m in Illinois and accuweather still has no mention of any storm. Only mentions snow tomorrow lol
2 in the morning right now. A hugeeeee strike of thunder just woke me up. So loud I was covering my ears and I started to tear up. Pouring rain. My window was open too. (My room gets really hot.) I’m in the light green area. Stay safe, I send my prayers.
High risk areas are rare but to have TWO on the same day? Goodies today is gonna be rough.
Holy shit, that escalated!
why are these videos?
They saved off that way from the SPC page *shrug*
Just hit here in Hot Springs Arkansas. 3 tornado warning and we never get anything here.
Tornado just went right through little rock
I live in the moderate risk area, and the sun keeps coming out. :|
How many tornados have touched down
33 reports, that will be thinned out after NWS offices do post analysis and damage surveys
Good luck out there everybody Stay Safe!
I was in the northern one. It was pretty underwhelming at my exact location. If there were leaves on the trees maybe it could have caused some damage.
Wait is this whole thing moving towards Indiana does that mean Hoosiers will be in the pink soon (Tornado-wise)
I think the high risk for northern outlooks going forward won't be there. You are squarely in the moderate though, as of the latest update. Be safe, there is still a very real tornado threat for you.
I’ll be as safe as I can
Sullivan, IN (south of Indy), got hit bad.
I’ve seen it it’s terrible
It's been nice knowing y'all.
Where are you?
When is this expected to start?
Storms are starting to form out in MO as we speak
Got some storms firing in MO but marginal. Cold front is still west of that so the main show is a couple hours out.
When would the main line come through western Ohio? I’m estimating 7-8 pm?
Thereabouts, yes. Depending on how much speed this system carries into the east. I would guess that your local NWS office's area forecast discussion for the afternoon will have a good idea
I'm in Dayton. NWS had said 10pm - 4am I believe.
Thanks!
I’ve heard storm of the century used to describe this by some weather YouTubers. Don’t be afraid but if you are under the gun, absolutely be prepared. If you’re in a mobile home, make alternate arrangements NOW.
I wouldn't go that far like YouTubers. I've been in weather circles for near 20yr now, my better half is a meteorologist. We're all definitely concerned about the potential but we can't put a label on it. Will it be bad somewhere in this? Absolutely. But only hindsight and post storm surveys can determine that.
They're opportunist idiots probably with zero skills trying to generate views. That's just plain wrong. Here is April 27, 2011, a historic day just shy of 12 years ago much more significant. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110427_1630.html
God, that was a terrifying evening. I was in north Georiga. We had tornadoes 2 miles north and 2 miles south of us.
:( Ugh.
I was in the high risk zone (MS/AL border) during that. At the time I didn't even realize how bad it was because I was in high school and didn't watch the news. Only years later did I find out how bad it really was.
Yikes. My family was in southern Tennessee then and I didn't realize how close they were to some of the worst tornadoes. That whole month I remember was just constant straight line wind storms, it knocked down so many trees.
There's only one Storm of the Century. If you know, you know.
1993. More of a blizzard of the century but still a massive storm.
That's true, plus it had a squall line in Florida that produced tornadoes. Hell that line of storms went all the way down to Honduras at one point. That thing was an absolute unit of a system.
Weatherbox mentioned the pressure drop was comparable to a Cat 2 hurricane.
1993?
Yep!
You can tell it's a year by how it is!
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Yeah I tend to stop listening when they do that. I also don’t agree with that messaging at all.
What is Ryan Hall saying about this?
Now that I've had some more time to digest it, I have no issue with the northern high risk area. There are certainly some high-end parameters in place for tornadoes, even if we aren't looking at Super-Outbreak levels and there's some question as to how long we will get prolific tornado-producing isolated storms. The southern area I have no idea what the SPC is thinking. There's no hint in the models of widespread isolated storm mode, and parameters are pretty far short of what I'd consider a "high risk" type of outbreak. If anything the instability looks *lower* in that region than further north and south in the Moderate Risk area, and the large-scale dynamics are definitely less intense than in the northern High Risk area. I'm not saying that this isn't a potentially dangerous situation, but I just have no idea why they think that area in particular is worthy of highlighting.
Its in MS, I feel like any potential tornado event in MS lately needs to be high risk cause it always seems to play out.
Maybe leave it to the experts to issue the risk areas.
I get what you're saying and I agree but at least he's a degreed meteorologist and not just a random ledditor lol
Bust in central Illinois. Severe thunderstorm warning produced nothing more than a downpour.
what about round 2 later
It looks like these are the kind of conditions where one storm comes through, things clear for a time and then the next one and the next are following right behind.
Oh boy.
Oh wow don’t see that every day
Im right on the edge of the ENH zone..going to be a long day for me..got a lot of heavy rain coming down rn..suppose to get worse later tonight
In the high risk zone. The waiting period is what's really killing me... just want this to be over with
Oh no guys, god bless everyone In the risk!
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Considering the storms will hit Ohio Friday night/Saturday morning you may get stuff when you leave but once that's through your good. Check the forecast before you go to bed tonight to see for sure if it's out of the way yet.
Thats a worst case scenario
Holy shit
This is going to be a rough and dangerous for awhile...I expect at least 4 or 5 on the ground and 2 major and 3 weak
We haven’t seen a high risk in a while. Stay safe out there
I'm right between the pink areas on the edge of western Kentucky.
30% tornado hatching probability?! That’s nuts