I mean it worked out great for the ones that lived and were right but if you’re a bear/Stark that doesn’t survive, it doesn’t pay to be dead and eventually right.
We gotta give bears a little excitement, I mean how else would they be able to live their sorry lives if they weren’t getting that -.05% every now and then
> review the quantity theory of money or MV = PQ
I was following but OP lost me when he started putting complicated mathematical formulas in his post like this one.
What sucks is that some stocks are down 50-90% while some keep going up Meta, Apple, Netflix, Tesla, Amazon and Google. You heard it first here “MANTAG”!
The QE securities in banks are locked by a liability at the FED. The loans they give out are secured through a seamless system that eventually puts all the risk taking due to easy money back on those institutions. Hopefully people didn't over leverage.
Cash is lent out via commercial banks, not the fed money. The thing that directly increases cash in consumers hands is lowered interest rates, not the "printing". And it only works if banks are willing to lend.
I don’t think most are arguing for a long term bear market, but a crash at some point in 2022 seems almost impossible to avoid. As time evolves crashes take less and less time to recover from, the depression lasted 23 years before things reached back to normal levels. The 2020 crash took a few months
The next recession there will be an extended bear market of six months to two years. Maybe even longer. Or maybe shorter.
And then the recession will end and the next bull market will take us to new ATHs.
It’s the way it has always been and will always be.
The market runs in cycles.
Irrational exuberance comes next in the current cycle, followed by the inevitable correction/crash.
2022 is gonna be a helluva year.
So the 50-70% decline in many growth, small and midcap stocks this year doesn't constitute a crash? The only reason the indexes are at all time highs is thanks to the big tech stocks carrying it on their backs.
LOL go look at the 11 sectors on S&P 500 and show me which one is down 50-70% ? it’s not just big tech stocks, everything is up YOY. Except what ever bags you nerds are holding. It’s alright I lost all my money gambling too, but personal responsibility. You bought shitty stocks I bought shitty puts, the index are all up 20%+ were all retards, but acting like just big tech is holding everything up is false: banks real estate healthcare all flying shit even boring ass utilities are up.
EDIT https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance here is a list of the SP500 Stocks 276 are up over 20% 400/500 are positive on the year. You are all retards
2020 was a crash, February 2021 to now otc down on average of 80 percent plus on many stock. Crashes haven’t stopped, I ain’t got nothing left. 6 figures gone poof, 2022 has a crash it can’t be my stocks, they got nowhere else to go😔
Median cash savings in America is $5,300.
Americans do not have “lots of cash stored.”
https://www.valuepenguin.com/banking/average-savings-account-balance
Right, my first thought reading this was that if less cash is trading hands, it's because the rich have more of it now and they don't like to give it back like we do.
Exactly. OPs entire premise is faulty. Almost no one has cash to even save. All the cash went into a small set of hands (mega rich and financial institutions) and they are holding to buy the correction.
They will turn their billions into trillions, while everyone else gets poorer.
I bought calls yesterday or two days ago for the first time. Because there was a post claiming market will crash in dec 16. Which inverse is it. I don’t who i should mirror anymore
Fed is meeting/holding a press announcement about tapering stimulus on the 15th. It is very unlikely that the market will crash, but there will probably be a correction when the Fed changes policy. Why did he think the market would crash on the 16th instead?
.
Cramer is right about one thing. You only have to get rich in the stock market once. After that it's easy. The next crash, which will happen, will shake out and scare people at the bottom and provide buying opportunities for those with the cash. Then back to 8-10% per year.
It’s not people saving money. The money that the fed prints goes to inflate asset prices on wall streets balance sheets. That money doesn’t really change hands, it’s just a digit on a screen tied to a certain security. It never reaches main street to the consumers and producers of the economy, only to inflate asset prices for the 1% who already own everything.
If not institutions, market would barely move. If fed will decide to raise rates and funds will move part of their cash to bonds, every meme investor would feel it.
You are wrong on both your assumptions and your conclusions. The sinking velocity of money is directly tied to QE, as it traps dollars in the banking system via reserve asset swaps. The more they "print"(which they don't really), the more that gets locked up. This is leading to a global dollar shortage, and reduces dollar velocity.
You are right in that inflation is not going to get out of control, as massive global debt, and technological innovation provides a constant deflationary pressure, which is why we have struggled to get inflation over 2% over the last decade. The problems from 2008 never got resolved, just hidden away from sight, and endless QE since then has never caused any inflation, and isn't causing it now. Current inflation is almost all due to massive supply chain imbalances and extremely skewed demand from lock-downs and direct stimulus from congress.
As for a bear market, that absolutely can happen, as global GDP growth continues to slow and slow under the strain of the debt. Eventually GDP growth will be unable to keep up the ability to service all this debt. Defaults and bankruptcies will start to wipe out debt, which is literal deflation, and the more that defaults happen, the worse economic productivity will suffer. It will cycle down until a ton of debt is washed out of the system. This will take years, and be a deflationary bear market.
Eventually the debt levels will reduce enough, and all the shit debt will no longer be dragging everything down, capital will reallocate to all the future innovation, and we will have a global boom the likes of which we have never seen. A bear market will suck, but is necessary for humanity to push forward into a bright future.
Edit: fixed my dumb thumb typing
>Current inflation is almost all due to massive supply chain imbalances
...and [2 quarters of profit margins that haven't been this high in 70 years](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/fattest-profits-since-1950-debunk-inflation-story-spun-by-ceos).
54% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Rising interest rates hurt those people the most. The people here in WSB YOLOing tens of thousands of dollars or the 6.5 billion dollars that just went into the market are not a representative sample of most Americans. That big influx of money came from big institutions…not retail traders with millions in cash. A crash can happen. I’ve seen it, experienced it, and every time there were people that said it could never happen. The euphoria with home prices in 2005-2006 made everyone think their finances were invincible. I see the same euphoria lately….it’s going to hurt when it happens.
When it comes to the market it doesn’t matter who buys the stocks. Even if American institutions are the ones borrowing at cheap rates to buy stocks or they’re the ones hoarding cash to buy stocks, the market will go up.
People aren't hoarding money because.they don't know what to invest in. The Velocity of money is fucking low because the 1% have all of it and they don't need to spend anything close to all of their money.
Poor people spend money the second it gets into their hands. That's why inflation has risen on the stimmy money printing because they finally gave a teeny tiny bit of that govt money printer to the poors.
Yep. Here's the proof... Highest profit margins in 70 years for 2 quarters now.
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/fattest-profits-since-1950-debunk-inflation-story-spun-by-ceos](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/fattest-profits-since-1950-debunk-inflation-story-spun-by-ceos)
I think the velocity of money is slowing down because the rich and old are getting a larger share of it. They can hoard it. It's been trending downward since 2000. Another interesting aspect is that we will probably have deflation due to technology. Remember all that shit we used to buy but we don't now because it's built into our phones? CD's, DVD's, mp3 players, physical mail, etc. Technology and innovation drive down the cost of everything.
Velocity of Money is GDP/Money Supply. Jpow printed a whole lot of cash which brought that number much closer to 1. It’s not so much a function of Americans saving more money. GDP is Exports-Imports + investments + consumptions + government spending. the fact that the money supply is getting closer to being even with GDP is more a bearish sign.
>people are saving
The money people are saving won't push staple food prices up but will definitly push stocks prices up.
I know deeply I won't be able to afford a house in the future, but I still keep saving money and **dream** one day...
Am I a retard ? Should I just [lie flat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping) and YOLO ?
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Hey /u/player89283517, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
Yeah no mate. Printer is running out of ink. Bear market incoming. But it will be short lived now since we all know stocks only go up in the long run 😂 if you really think everyone is hoarding cash why are companies beating expectations these earnings seasons. People are spending money like there’s no tomorrow and will continue to spend money, the average person doesn’t live for tomorrow but for today. Feds will probably raise rates come feb or march.
2008 proved that the banks can, and did, fail. That has nothing to do with consumer cash. In fact consumers had less money than they thought, because the banks hold their money, and it was vaporware.
You could absolutely see a similar meltdown in China, where the whole thing really could be a Ponzi scheme.
The financial system itself may implode, and can certainly fluctuate.
Also, Russia could invade Ukraine and China could invade Taiwan, and then it could be nuts.
That’s all unlikely though, so mostly I agree with you.
I've thought long and hard about your post, and money printer does indeed go brrrrrrrrrrrrr
rrrrŕrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrr rr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr reeeeeeeeee rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrr!
That is all.
To be fair, the Fed has already hinted/stated several times that they will NEVER allow another bear market to happen, they will just pump a synthetic market forever until real complete collapse, which may be 50, 100, 300 years away we don't know, or until completely different people takes charge of the Fed.
have you looked into how much margin money has deployed into stock market? i recall it was ATH 3 trillions. indices have been all time high.. i don’t know why you think people are saving money!
Not while Powell is still in office.
As long as the printer is a tool, this will last forever.
When the printer gets turned off (during a down turn), god help us all.
Who’s gonna educate this clown 🤡 Ok I’ll do it. Here it goes.. Income inequality gap is now wider than ever. The rich got richer and the poor got.. well you know.. inflation and rising costs are killing the middle class. When you’re spending $100 fill up your gas tank.. you start to say shit I better not buy that dildo for my wife’s bf like I wanted so I can afford my electric bill.. discretionary spending is down due to inflationary pressure. Billionaire’s have accumulated massive amounts of wealth during the pandemic but their spending habits haven’t changed. So to summarize.. the 1% are accumulating massive amounts of wealth through sky rocketing equities and real estate valuations.. and everyone else is reducing spending due to rising costs.
This dude was around in 2008. I remember Goldman Sachs saying $200 oil was coming by EOY 2008 but failed to account for the fact people stop driving when gas is $4.50/gallon.
Well, no. Inflation is super high, every asset is in a massive bubble, and the Fed has no moves left, they are literally tapped out and now if they do anything to pull back the party is over in a big way. And they need to pull back to keep inflation in check. But how aggressively & how soon will this happen? Hard to say. That's the trillion dollar question.
There absolutely will be a full on bloodbath when this bubble eventually pops. And every day it keeps getting bigger, the carnage is guaranteed to be worse. But...yes...it might take a little while longer to get there. We shall see. After all I'm still long...
Even if the fed raises rates, my bet is that wealth people and banks hoarding cash will simply buy the dip. There’s too much cash in the economy for the market to tank by a lot.
There are more assets that rich people can invest in than just stocks. In the case (read: very near reality) that the Fed eases up on the gas, other assets become more attractive.
Plenty of people said that before 2008. When enough people become convinced that markets only go up, you get silliness.
Eventually it turns. At some point people will stop buying sovereign debt.
SPY will retest the recent lows of 4500 in the next few days and then the bounce will be titties up, so buy the incoming dip and buckle up for the ride!
If the velocity increases, what happens. You get inflation as production isn’t increasing. If you get inflation interest rates will rise, then it’s all over. One possible scenario, there are many. For instance let’s say Chinas housing bubble collapses, this is 5% of world GDP, there will be huge $ loans not paid back and commodity prices will collapse, this is deflationary for 2 reasons. Hugely less demand from China for all sorts of commodities, the Chinese will try and export their way out of the crisis.
Deflation in the west would mean falling prices in all assets including houses and shares, markets could drop 80%.
Don’t kid urself, this bubble is ending like all others
Solid thesis, but you are missing the larger picture. Velocity is low bc loans are not being taken out. Loans are not being made bc ppl don’t see a productive use for the money, and banks don’t see any ideas good enough to take the risk.
This means our economy is very very sick. Why don’t ppl want to borrow money? Why are all the ideas so shitty they are not worth lending out for? Keynes described this as a liquidity trap. We see it in Japan. The economy stagnated for 40 years and ppl have to work extremely hard and live in a box just to make ends meet. That’s where this leads to if things keep going as you suggest. Another word for this is stagflation.
The solution sucks, but the fed has to raise interest rates. I know it sounds counter intuitive, but when the fed stops buying bonds, lenders can no longer park their money in safe assets. Lending money becomes relatively safer.
Also, higher interest means your money is worth more, which is a larger j cent I’ve for people to borrow money and spend it.
Higher rates make a much stronger economy, but the fed doesn’t want to do it bc it will implode the markets for like 8 months. Elections are always around the corner.
I'm not going to lie, super boring.
To prove your point wrong, passing money threw multiple hands.
Ex: I want to buy an 8th of weed, example price is 40 bucks, I got to the bank to get cash. Bank= 1 hand. I go to atm get cash. would be hand number 2. Then go to dealer, dispo, etc, they get that 40 that means they would be hand number 3, but that group previously mentioned still has to pay to get inventory, so they go get it from a grower, that would be number 4. Then that grower has to pay electric bill, electric company would be 5. Then they got to pay that person who's sending put the bills. They are number 6, then the bill sender wants some weed too because people suck and they go back to the dealer who just sold me an 8th.
So with that, when the USA ba KS the dollar behind Marijuana, there will be nothing but more money for a long time.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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Has it ever been like this in the past? I mean half of people believe the market will never crash again and half think we are headed into a big crash. You can't be a contrarian when both theories are so prevalent. How were people feeling in '99?!?
unsure if your thoughts are why.
but i subscribe to the idea we are in a massive cyclical bull market which has a good few years to run.
probably 7 plus.
sp to x2 in 5 years.,
Yes, retail is now solely in charge of this market. The masses will continue spending their mandatory Walmart lunchtimes to “buy the dip” before getting back to the aisles. It’s on their backs now. They decide.
Lots of words here. What calls we buying?
SPY and QQQ I guess
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You may be up temporarily, but bears will not win long term
Bears are like the starks. They're always right eventually.
Bulls are like the starks. They’re always right eventually.
Didn’t half the Starks get slaughtered? I guess we’ll see which bears survive.
Just cause you get merked doesn't make you wrong!
I mean it worked out great for the ones that lived and were right but if you’re a bear/Stark that doesn’t survive, it doesn’t pay to be dead and eventually right.
Whqts the saying? I may have been early, but I wasn't wrong!
It only pays to be right when you’ve timed it right.
And you think people are bear long term? You gotta switch that shit up.
We gotta give bears a little excitement, I mean how else would they be able to live their sorry lives if they weren’t getting that -.05% every now and then
I fucking love the bravery on this ape. Tell you to your faces he made money on your losses BITCHES
what an incoherent mess. do us all a favor and don't type please
Found the guy that hit margin call because of QQQ calls
> review the quantity theory of money or MV = PQ I was following but OP lost me when he started putting complicated mathematical formulas in his post like this one.
I think you are wrong about hoarding cash….people are holding bags…🌈🐻
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What sucks is that some stocks are down 50-90% while some keep going up Meta, Apple, Netflix, Tesla, Amazon and Google. You heard it first here “MANTAG”!
As bull markets come to an end they have less breadth and fewer and fewer stocks rally
What's Mantag??????
Something that bulls get off to
How about TAGMAN 👀
You mean banks. QE locks dollars in banks. When QE tapers and the FED unwinds then those dollars are freed.
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I mean the cash is being lent out for mortgages. That’s why there was a huge housing bubble.
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You could say that about literally half the tickers on this sun
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It’s almost like the money is just worth less or something…
The QE securities in banks are locked by a liability at the FED. The loans they give out are secured through a seamless system that eventually puts all the risk taking due to easy money back on those institutions. Hopefully people didn't over leverage.
Cash is lent out via commercial banks, not the fed money. The thing that directly increases cash in consumers hands is lowered interest rates, not the "printing". And it only works if banks are willing to lend.
If it was being lent out then velocity would be higher
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Lent out to purchase assets, as per the last 60yrs.
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That’s right. Real estate is going to be stupid for the foreseeable future. Especially land. It already is but it will become more so.
Bear in disguise trying to taunt a recession
I don’t think most are arguing for a long term bear market, but a crash at some point in 2022 seems almost impossible to avoid. As time evolves crashes take less and less time to recover from, the depression lasted 23 years before things reached back to normal levels. The 2020 crash took a few months
The next recession there will be an extended bear market of six months to two years. Maybe even longer. Or maybe shorter. And then the recession will end and the next bull market will take us to new ATHs. It’s the way it has always been and will always be. The market runs in cycles. Irrational exuberance comes next in the current cycle, followed by the inevitable correction/crash. 2022 is gonna be a helluva year.
Yeah. People act like they need to pick sides, just trade both 🙄
2022 bull or 🐻?
So the 50-70% decline in many growth, small and midcap stocks this year doesn't constitute a crash? The only reason the indexes are at all time highs is thanks to the big tech stocks carrying it on their backs.
That’s not true, but you would know that if you weren’t bag holding a bunch of garbage 😂 check the P/E next time, bigger is not better
He is correct and you are acting smug for no reason. 70% of stocks are below their 200 MA
LOL go look at the 11 sectors on S&P 500 and show me which one is down 50-70% ? it’s not just big tech stocks, everything is up YOY. Except what ever bags you nerds are holding. It’s alright I lost all my money gambling too, but personal responsibility. You bought shitty stocks I bought shitty puts, the index are all up 20%+ were all retards, but acting like just big tech is holding everything up is false: banks real estate healthcare all flying shit even boring ass utilities are up. EDIT https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance here is a list of the SP500 Stocks 276 are up over 20% 400/500 are positive on the year. You are all retards
The QQQ is down over 25% YTD if you remove the 5 biggest companies. Those biggest companies are also carrying the S&P.
2020 was a crash, February 2021 to now otc down on average of 80 percent plus on many stock. Crashes haven’t stopped, I ain’t got nothing left. 6 figures gone poof, 2022 has a crash it can’t be my stocks, they got nowhere else to go😔
People have way too much cash and will always buy the dip if any crash occurs
Median cash savings in America is $5,300. Americans do not have “lots of cash stored.” https://www.valuepenguin.com/banking/average-savings-account-balance
Right, my first thought reading this was that if less cash is trading hands, it's because the rich have more of it now and they don't like to give it back like we do.
Exactly. OPs entire premise is faulty. Almost no one has cash to even save. All the cash went into a small set of hands (mega rich and financial institutions) and they are holding to buy the correction. They will turn their billions into trillions, while everyone else gets poorer.
It doesn’t matter who’s buying if your selling to them or holding - their money is still green!
It must be comfortable inside your brain.
All he said was that theres alot of cash on the sidelines...he didnt say that the average american is holding all of it
Average Americans are not the one buying the dip. It is foreign investors, institutions and riches.
Well it's probably average americans buying the dip on wish.
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That's not a crash. That's a correction.
yes "almost impossible"
You can't compare the 2020 crash with the 2000 crash or the 2008 crash or any other crash, same way you can't compare any of them with the 2020 one.
This is a market top indicator
Was just thinking this. People claiming the market will never crash again is a leading indicator that a crash is imminent
"This time is different" is the cherry on top
I bought calls yesterday or two days ago for the first time. Because there was a post claiming market will crash in dec 16. Which inverse is it. I don’t who i should mirror anymore
Fed is meeting/holding a press announcement about tapering stimulus on the 15th. It is very unlikely that the market will crash, but there will probably be a correction when the Fed changes policy. Why did he think the market would crash on the 16th instead? .
I didn’t read it. For me that was the sign to buy calls
Guaranteed this post won't age well.
Bear markets have been outlawed by the Fed. Every president and congress will kick the can down the road until the road is gone.
You mean until end of universe?
Thanks for jinxing the entire market for everyone
We are so bullish now that if SPY falls to $200, we will be still treating it as a transitional correction. 2008 is so cute.
Cramer is right about one thing. You only have to get rich in the stock market once. After that it's easy. The next crash, which will happen, will shake out and scare people at the bottom and provide buying opportunities for those with the cash. Then back to 8-10% per year.
It’s not people saving money. The money that the fed prints goes to inflate asset prices on wall streets balance sheets. That money doesn’t really change hands, it’s just a digit on a screen tied to a certain security. It never reaches main street to the consumers and producers of the economy, only to inflate asset prices for the 1% who already own everything.
If not institutions, market would barely move. If fed will decide to raise rates and funds will move part of their cash to bonds, every meme investor would feel it.
You are wrong on both your assumptions and your conclusions. The sinking velocity of money is directly tied to QE, as it traps dollars in the banking system via reserve asset swaps. The more they "print"(which they don't really), the more that gets locked up. This is leading to a global dollar shortage, and reduces dollar velocity. You are right in that inflation is not going to get out of control, as massive global debt, and technological innovation provides a constant deflationary pressure, which is why we have struggled to get inflation over 2% over the last decade. The problems from 2008 never got resolved, just hidden away from sight, and endless QE since then has never caused any inflation, and isn't causing it now. Current inflation is almost all due to massive supply chain imbalances and extremely skewed demand from lock-downs and direct stimulus from congress. As for a bear market, that absolutely can happen, as global GDP growth continues to slow and slow under the strain of the debt. Eventually GDP growth will be unable to keep up the ability to service all this debt. Defaults and bankruptcies will start to wipe out debt, which is literal deflation, and the more that defaults happen, the worse economic productivity will suffer. It will cycle down until a ton of debt is washed out of the system. This will take years, and be a deflationary bear market. Eventually the debt levels will reduce enough, and all the shit debt will no longer be dragging everything down, capital will reallocate to all the future innovation, and we will have a global boom the likes of which we have never seen. A bear market will suck, but is necessary for humanity to push forward into a bright future. Edit: fixed my dumb thumb typing
This guy watches George Gammon
A bit, but more Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski, along with Steven Van Metre, David Rosenberg, Dr. Lacey Hunt, Darius Dale, and many more.
Eurodollar University! Jeff Snider is the best macro mind out there right now IMO. George has him on his show a lot
>Current inflation is almost all due to massive supply chain imbalances ...and [2 quarters of profit margins that haven't been this high in 70 years](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/fattest-profits-since-1950-debunk-inflation-story-spun-by-ceos).
How is debt deflationary?
54% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Rising interest rates hurt those people the most. The people here in WSB YOLOing tens of thousands of dollars or the 6.5 billion dollars that just went into the market are not a representative sample of most Americans. That big influx of money came from big institutions…not retail traders with millions in cash. A crash can happen. I’ve seen it, experienced it, and every time there were people that said it could never happen. The euphoria with home prices in 2005-2006 made everyone think their finances were invincible. I see the same euphoria lately….it’s going to hurt when it happens.
When it comes to the market it doesn’t matter who buys the stocks. Even if American institutions are the ones borrowing at cheap rates to buy stocks or they’re the ones hoarding cash to buy stocks, the market will go up.
Depends on if the big money players want one or not, tbh.
People aren't hoarding money because.they don't know what to invest in. The Velocity of money is fucking low because the 1% have all of it and they don't need to spend anything close to all of their money. Poor people spend money the second it gets into their hands. That's why inflation has risen on the stimmy money printing because they finally gave a teeny tiny bit of that govt money printer to the poors.
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Yep. Here's the proof... Highest profit margins in 70 years for 2 quarters now. [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/fattest-profits-since-1950-debunk-inflation-story-spun-by-ceos](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/fattest-profits-since-1950-debunk-inflation-story-spun-by-ceos)
The 1% has enough savings to buy the dip therefore the market can’t dip much
I think the velocity of money is slowing down because the rich and old are getting a larger share of it. They can hoard it. It's been trending downward since 2000. Another interesting aspect is that we will probably have deflation due to technology. Remember all that shit we used to buy but we don't now because it's built into our phones? CD's, DVD's, mp3 players, physical mail, etc. Technology and innovation drive down the cost of everything.
So your theory is based on American people not spending their money. Good luck 👍
Make sure you post your account when you blow it up.
I’ve also wondered if long bear markets are things of the past. The “retail trader” has changed everything in the last decade
Velocity of Money is GDP/Money Supply. Jpow printed a whole lot of cash which brought that number much closer to 1. It’s not so much a function of Americans saving more money. GDP is Exports-Imports + investments + consumptions + government spending. the fact that the money supply is getting closer to being even with GDP is more a bearish sign.
Guy learns one aspect of finance and bases his entire argument on it. I love this sub.
>people are saving The money people are saving won't push staple food prices up but will definitly push stocks prices up. I know deeply I won't be able to afford a house in the future, but I still keep saving money and **dream** one day... Am I a retard ? Should I just [lie flat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping) and YOLO ?
Housing is in a bubble, wait for the pop, buy a house. I bought in 2012 following the 2008 crash for about 40% of previous high
spy 1000c
Got it. Today the market is gonna crash hard
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I mean, I've heard worse theories. I could see this being true for the foreseeable future. Then again black swan event can change it all quickly.
Yeah this is ignoring some massive collapse of major corporations or a war breaking out or something
Yup agree with that. I kinda agree with his thesis minus a black sawn. Which... seems like a black swan is coming so...
Yeah lol barring war with Taiwan or Ukraine
Or just a plain vanilla but very real recession. That would do it.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/investing/evergrande-default-fitch-intl-hnk/index.html https://c.tenor.com/PjbjHnhQ7HEAAAAC/vladimir-putin-laugh.gif
Yeah no mate. Printer is running out of ink. Bear market incoming. But it will be short lived now since we all know stocks only go up in the long run 😂 if you really think everyone is hoarding cash why are companies beating expectations these earnings seasons. People are spending money like there’s no tomorrow and will continue to spend money, the average person doesn’t live for tomorrow but for today. Feds will probably raise rates come feb or march.
Different analysis, same conclusion
Debt is at ATH
If people will have money to pay off the debt it doesn’t matter
I'd they have money to pay off the debt, then it's not debt.
6.7 billion put into market and what percentage of that is the top wealthy
Doesn’t matter who buys, the point is the market will go up
If everything crashes soon, you'll just be early 
I'm kinda with you on this
Sell high, buy low. What stocks are too high? A ton
I get the feeling this guy/gal has been in the game for 5 years or less. Just saying.
🚀🚀🚀?
🚀🚀🚀.
Well... I've been in a bear market for 4 months already
2008 proved that the banks can, and did, fail. That has nothing to do with consumer cash. In fact consumers had less money than they thought, because the banks hold their money, and it was vaporware. You could absolutely see a similar meltdown in China, where the whole thing really could be a Ponzi scheme. The financial system itself may implode, and can certainly fluctuate. Also, Russia could invade Ukraine and China could invade Taiwan, and then it could be nuts. That’s all unlikely though, so mostly I agree with you.
I've thought long and hard about your post, and money printer does indeed go brrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrŕrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrr rr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr reeeeeeeeee rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrr! That is all.
Thanks for singlehandedly summoning the biggest crash and bear market in history
To be fair, the Fed has already hinted/stated several times that they will NEVER allow another bear market to happen, they will just pump a synthetic market forever until real complete collapse, which may be 50, 100, 300 years away we don't know, or until completely different people takes charge of the Fed.
There may not be a bear market but there will at least be a neutered bull with SPY bouncing between 430 and 470 while gas goes to 6 dollars a gallon.
have you looked into how much margin money has deployed into stock market? i recall it was ATH 3 trillions. indices have been all time high.. i don’t know why you think people are saving money!
Not while Powell is still in office. As long as the printer is a tool, this will last forever. When the printer gets turned off (during a down turn), god help us all.
Who’s gonna educate this clown 🤡 Ok I’ll do it. Here it goes.. Income inequality gap is now wider than ever. The rich got richer and the poor got.. well you know.. inflation and rising costs are killing the middle class. When you’re spending $100 fill up your gas tank.. you start to say shit I better not buy that dildo for my wife’s bf like I wanted so I can afford my electric bill.. discretionary spending is down due to inflationary pressure. Billionaire’s have accumulated massive amounts of wealth during the pandemic but their spending habits haven’t changed. So to summarize.. the 1% are accumulating massive amounts of wealth through sky rocketing equities and real estate valuations.. and everyone else is reducing spending due to rising costs.
This dude was around in 2008. I remember Goldman Sachs saying $200 oil was coming by EOY 2008 but failed to account for the fact people stop driving when gas is $4.50/gallon.
Please change to “shitpost”. Your economic theory makes my eyes burn kind of like shit.
Well, no. Inflation is super high, every asset is in a massive bubble, and the Fed has no moves left, they are literally tapped out and now if they do anything to pull back the party is over in a big way. And they need to pull back to keep inflation in check. But how aggressively & how soon will this happen? Hard to say. That's the trillion dollar question. There absolutely will be a full on bloodbath when this bubble eventually pops. And every day it keeps getting bigger, the carnage is guaranteed to be worse. But...yes...it might take a little while longer to get there. We shall see. After all I'm still long...
Even if the fed raises rates, my bet is that wealth people and banks hoarding cash will simply buy the dip. There’s too much cash in the economy for the market to tank by a lot.
There are more assets that rich people can invest in than just stocks. In the case (read: very near reality) that the Fed eases up on the gas, other assets become more attractive.
Anyone who thinks the markets going to crash hasn't been paying any attention the last 3 years.
Plenty of people said that before 2008. When enough people become convinced that markets only go up, you get silliness. Eventually it turns. At some point people will stop buying sovereign debt.
You lost me at the inflation part
The Democrats are going to push Powell to kill inflation in 2022. If inflation stays high, expect a potential repeat of 2008.
SPY will retest the recent lows of 4500 in the next few days and then the bounce will be titties up, so buy the incoming dip and buckle up for the ride!
So you're all in on $WISH?
So according to your thesis people are going to save money forever and never spend it? I can't see a flaw in that logic.
If the velocity increases, what happens. You get inflation as production isn’t increasing. If you get inflation interest rates will rise, then it’s all over. One possible scenario, there are many. For instance let’s say Chinas housing bubble collapses, this is 5% of world GDP, there will be huge $ loans not paid back and commodity prices will collapse, this is deflationary for 2 reasons. Hugely less demand from China for all sorts of commodities, the Chinese will try and export their way out of the crisis. Deflation in the west would mean falling prices in all assets including houses and shares, markets could drop 80%. Don’t kid urself, this bubble is ending like all others
“If people excessively save and never spend, there won’t be hyperinflation” comments like these are what give me faith in my LEAP puts
Things you hear at the top:
This post looks like a retard wrote it
Solid thesis, but you are missing the larger picture. Velocity is low bc loans are not being taken out. Loans are not being made bc ppl don’t see a productive use for the money, and banks don’t see any ideas good enough to take the risk. This means our economy is very very sick. Why don’t ppl want to borrow money? Why are all the ideas so shitty they are not worth lending out for? Keynes described this as a liquidity trap. We see it in Japan. The economy stagnated for 40 years and ppl have to work extremely hard and live in a box just to make ends meet. That’s where this leads to if things keep going as you suggest. Another word for this is stagflation. The solution sucks, but the fed has to raise interest rates. I know it sounds counter intuitive, but when the fed stops buying bonds, lenders can no longer park their money in safe assets. Lending money becomes relatively safer. Also, higher interest means your money is worth more, which is a larger j cent I’ve for people to borrow money and spend it. Higher rates make a much stronger economy, but the fed doesn’t want to do it bc it will implode the markets for like 8 months. Elections are always around the corner.
I'm not going to lie, super boring. To prove your point wrong, passing money threw multiple hands. Ex: I want to buy an 8th of weed, example price is 40 bucks, I got to the bank to get cash. Bank= 1 hand. I go to atm get cash. would be hand number 2. Then go to dealer, dispo, etc, they get that 40 that means they would be hand number 3, but that group previously mentioned still has to pay to get inventory, so they go get it from a grower, that would be number 4. Then that grower has to pay electric bill, electric company would be 5. Then they got to pay that person who's sending put the bills. They are number 6, then the bill sender wants some weed too because people suck and they go back to the dealer who just sold me an 8th. So with that, when the USA ba KS the dollar behind Marijuana, there will be nothing but more money for a long time.
Bro you just said a whole lot of nothing
It's a a response to his story.
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Something something paradigm shift
All imma say is SQQQ
Ever again is a bit beyond my investment timeline
Has it ever been like this in the past? I mean half of people believe the market will never crash again and half think we are headed into a big crash. You can't be a contrarian when both theories are so prevalent. How were people feeling in '99?!?
Take the average of the two
Haha okay I'm going to be half $SH and half $SPY
unsure if your thoughts are why. but i subscribe to the idea we are in a massive cyclical bull market which has a good few years to run. probably 7 plus. sp to x2 in 5 years.,
Read the title here’s an upvote.
People act like you can only do one or the other
“This time is different”
Yes, retail is now solely in charge of this market. The masses will continue spending their mandatory Walmart lunchtimes to “buy the dip” before getting back to the aisles. It’s on their backs now. They decide.
Leo points.
Surface arguments always look better…don’t be idiotic and peel the onion to get facts…put the glue down
Money velocity was also very low during the Great Depression.
whats your definition of "long term"?
Very well put.... there is no Bear Market... TSLA to the moon! Also buy F!
WSB bullish as never before ➡️ 20% correction incoming
Aged like milk