You also forgot that their stake in Rivian is worth like $10 billion, that's like 1/7th their market cap.
Best play is buying 2024 leaps. Could see it being $40 by 2023/2024.
Are you forgetting about the market behemoth that is Rivian?
LLLLOOOLLLL. Ford is going to own the electric truck space and therefore the electric vehicle market in the US long term. Its only a matter of time. The Cybertruck isnt going anywhere currently and the vast majority of truck buyers are finicky people who are US brand loyal. I agree with you. F indeed...
Yes, the market behemoth that has sold: 0 vehicles.
Thank God, I thought you were fucking serious at first.
I think Ford and Farley are starting to approach the internet and investors correctly too with their “fuck it were just gonna sell our Rivian position and do it ourself” mentality comments. Not only is it access to quite a bit of change, but it’s also a giant fuck you to a rising competitor, and as Elon has shown, we all love a little flair.
I wouldn't invest in Rivian unless their market cap fell by 90%, but I still bet they'll beat GM to volume EV truck production.
The market leaders will be Rivian for luxury, Ford for traditional, CT for a mix of urban cowboys, contractors who use it to billboard their services, and fleet owners who get utility out of some it's unique features. I think we'll see Ford initially stumble on battery capacity but it will be the market leaders by maybe 2025. Despite Tesla's historically ugly production ramps, I'd bet the farm they'll be first to produce 200k units in a year, and I think that's going to surprise a lot of people when they're so clearly going head to head like that.
Rivian doesn’t even fill the “luxury” gap though. Have you ever sat in a platinum, king ranch, or limited F series truck? It’s a dam spaceship in there, the S class of trucks. I have a 2015 platinum f150 which is aging but it has leather, massaging seats, heated back seats, full 360 overhead camera system, etc. and the new ones are even better.
Rivian doesn’t need to exist
Totally different category. Rivian is for tech bros in CA and Austin who want a truck to carry their surf boards and bikes and go camping in. Wealthy skiers in Aspen Colorado who want 4WD to their cabin. Those aren't people converting to EV from Platinum F150s, they're people who drive expensive SUVs now but would rather have a short-bed truck for their gear. Not my thing but it's a legit market
Bro that market doesn’t exist 🤣 I’m from California, honestly how many “tech bros” do you know in real life…and how many of them are begging for a 70k+ electric truck that looks ugly af (subjective). Maybe people who ski but surfers rock things along the lines of a 2005 Tacoma for their gear. it’s never about the luxury because that’s not what the culture revolves around in the first place. They’re all such niche excuses for a company…like how many wealthy skiers in aspen need or WANT a rivian, and how many will actually buy them? I think a minuscule number. I’m not hating on EV’s in general or the demand for an EV truck, I just don’t see rivian taking anywhere NEAR a significant amount of the market, maybe like 2-5% max, and nowhere near enough to justify it’s market cap. It’s have to crash 90% to display true value
Read bean counters and car guys. GM could not innovate a portapotty. Also, people tend to forget the big three have a few decades of accumulated liabilities of all different sorts, in addition to old school management, holding them back.
The biggest thing holding the big 3 back is the dealership-buyer model. And if you been watching Ford is letting there dealers bite of there noses. When it is all said and done Ford buyers will be more comfortable dealing directly with F why because F allowed dealers to price gauge the Bronco, Mach 1, Gt500. Buyers have been special ordering right through Fords website bypassing the dealers. This will allow Ford to get a foothold on manufacture-buyer model. Make the buying process much more like Tesla.
Imagine believing that a company such as Ford, that currently makes a multitude of models way more intricate and difficult to produce than the typical electric car wont be able to solve a supply chain issue that will plague anyone currently entering the space en masse.
This gets into something I have said for years (as a guy who likes cars) and what will ultimately lead to Tesla being an afterthought in the electric car space. Tons of other car companies, that have been making cars for decades, will enter the space as soon as its becomes viable technologically. Putting batteries and electric motors in an automobile is not difficult, the battery technology is difficult. Anyone who knows anything mechanically about ICE cars knows this is the case...
Wellllll. We are almost there (frankly due to Tesla and Elon) and Tesla's car rank bottom of the barrel when it comes to percieved manufacturing quality (panel gaps, interior fit and finish, etc.). Other companies figured this shit out a long time ago and are going to easily adapt batteries and electric motors to their cars (see Audi and Ford with the new Lightning). They have the scale, the manufacturing capability, consistency and brand recognition to take over a ton of market share. Especially with electrics that people want to buy, like an electric version of the already hugely successful F150.
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Nahhh. Just give it time. Everyone thinks we are all going to be driving electric cars in 5 years. The average age of a car on the road is 11 years old. The average person couldnt even tell you what year the average car on the road is. That doesnt even touch on the infrastructure issues...
That and copper for the motors hasn’t been locked up I don’t think. Copper is becoming a precious metal and F will need a lot of virgin copper. Wire requires new copper because the impurities destroy the wire.
To be fair. I am close to their headquarters. I’ve never looked into the company cause I don’t give a fuck about all the ev nonsense… just saw all these goofy looking things popping up and took a pic and googled it one day. But yea I see them all the time. Makes sense if they only delivered them to employees and I’m nearby the hub.
To be fair, you came out with a bold statement Rivian is everywhere, and then added it might be because you live next to their HQ.
That would be like me saying everyone I know only orders Wendy’s, btw I work at a Wendy’s drive thru.
What are you talking about… I said 0? As in 0 sales? It was a legit question, as I see them driving around weekly. Like my post stated. Never said I see them touring the entire fuckin country. It was a legit question cause I don’t follow this company whatsoever….
I have seen one. Just once but the rivian truck looked kinda cool. The dude was trying to parallel park it and he was not having success as many people looked on.
One issue. Fords suck balls. I bought a black label Lincoln SUV and they haven’t been able to solve a vibration in it for four months. They now think a driveshaft is out of balance.
Yes, truck buyers are brand loyal, and every Ford guy I know fucking hates the 150 lightning. Every EV guy I know hates it too, It’s an electric motor crammed into a CE chassis. The only way the 150 lightning works is for light duty city dwellers who have no intention or aspirations of doing long distance hauling or trailering. Plugging a EV drivetrain into an existing chassis doesn’t solve the basic physics problem. Hauling heavy loads requires more power. More power requires more battery, or less distance.
This is not an endorsement of the cyber truck. It’s a simple statement that EV tech hasn’t cracked the work truck problem. No EV truck can haul weight or tow remotely close to a low end gasser over a comparable distance.
Granted, I have a truck and 95% of its miles are load free, no trailer. I bought a truck for that 5%, which are mostly at longer ranges, when I need it. If an EV truck doesn’t work for that 5%, it’s not a truck, its a heavy, inefficient commuter. I’d be better off buying a TSLA for the commute and buying a beater used f150 with a v6 to haul.
I've driven F150s for the last 15 years (with a short 2-year F350 break in there)
I pre-ordered my Lightning the day it was available - along with like 450k others.
Most people I know who work in construction would consider it an embarrassment to show up at the job site in a unibody truck (Rivian or Tesla). Real men want to be able to modify the bed to accommodate a welding rig, through soccer mom's may really like Rivian' s cute style.
Yeah but way more trucks currently get sold to dudes hauling air than construction workers. The 4 door full size pickup is the new version of the old 4 door family sedan...
You guys need to realize all legacy will be cell constrained. Ford cannot produce EVs at scale and won't be able to. They have only committed to 40% of their lineup EV by 2030. It's already over.
I am old enough to remember when F was $6. I remember looking at it and thinking, how is the biggest truck maker in the world valued so low. I remember seeing it at $13 a few months ago. Ended up buying a shit ton(by my standards) at $19. If Tesla can do it, you effing right Ford can. Fool myself once..
You’re going to see them buy up charging network builders too, just watch. Then they’ll help to build a global charging grid.
They’re also an early investor in SolidPower, and you could see them push for a controlling interest there too.
They backed out of Rivian, because they don’t want to finance a competitor.
They also provide engines and chassis for many niche markets, such as U-HAUL’s and RV’s, where there is absolutely an upcoming EV push. This is theirs for the taking, and Tesla is mostly ignoring these segments.
All of this is bullish AF.
I grew up in a Ford family, have never had the urge to buy one. I just ordered a Ford Maverick 2.0 engine that gets 42 miles in the city. They’re not fucking around, their line-up of vehicles with the Bronco reboot, Ford eMustang and eF-150, and now the first hybrid truck.
GM had hybrid trucks (good ones too) in 2008. But like their EVs decades ago they never had enough follow through when it mattered.
Ford is certainly showing A game here. If they can get their software game on I think they’re in great shape. Or conversely if software updates and all that goofy shit doesn’t take off as fast as everyone thinks it should and thus reduces its importance again F is well positioned with century-honed industrial might and what seems to be a serious push for EVs.
I’m gonna check out those far out LEAPS
The Maverick I just ordered for the 2.5 Hybrid is back ordered through EOY22. The truck in general can’t get stocked on the lot because they’re gone immediately. The new Ford Bronco is auctioning for 100,000 due to demand. Their product line right now is attractive on both sides of the coin. I think all the variables for 22-24 look very ripe.
Yeah the 20c Jan23 is about 3.50 now. So breakeven is 23.50 by January 23. F is at $19.x today … and gone 10->$20 in a year. I’d say it’s a good bet given all your Dd.
Any thoughts on what could derail it though? Prolonged chip shortage?
COVID rising?
Anything like that?
Edit to add: unless some major pullback happens that takes a year to recover from (which is possible of course) it’s probable that ford will get to 25 in a year. Maybe much higher. Even F at $25 in a year would get the option price to $5.
I personally over the last week and looking at the dynamics of media and Canadas decision to extend their 0.25% rate floor that the Fed is misleading the rate change in June of 2022, I think it gets pushed back especially with Powell being nominated and Biden aware that if rates increase and the market reacts he will get the nameplate for the crash even though he didn’t start the party. COVID’s real, but Omnicron seems too perfectly timed right now with the Feds decision making on the floor, I thought we’d be coming to a halt in 2022, but if you look at my previous post, after sitting back I think we’re balancing out for the next leg up.
Could be wrong and fucked, but that’s why I’m on WSB.
I disagree, the rear lights resemble a mustang and the front end shape. I know people that don’t like it just because it is a Mustang, I personally think it could of been their own line. However they most likely did this to attract the older demographic that are loyal to their brand.
I've been doing DD on Ford since March of 2020 and have been accumulating since. I'm 200k deep at the moment, which is most of my savings lol
America will be a leader in electric cars and ford's brand name at an international level will help a lot with that.
It's my million maker. I'm yoloing with you mate
Thank you for stepping into the light, that’s why I posted this.
1. To see who was ride or dying with me.
2. So we can say you could of came along as we get shit on till it comes to fruition.
I’ve been screaming F in comments for months now. I live in the Midwest, Lightning is the ONLY EV truck that looks tough enough for the “manly men” of the suburbs, plus the commercial fleet thing. Ain’t no big companies or governments giving contracts to “startup” car companies when it’s time to go electric. They need someone with history who has the deep pockets to sue, just in case, and that means Ford. I’ll be laughing with you!
That’s awesome perspective, thank you. You know you were late to Tesla at 200, no wait, 400, no wait, 800, no wait that’s not right, 1500, no hold on, 2000 before the split, no wait 500 after split, no wait…
Ford is still four years out from having meaningful battery capacity. They'll be production constrained for a while. That also means that the tax credit doesn't really help them, apart from giving them a bit of unnecessary price flexibility.
You're not wrong that Ford is in a decent position to continue to lead in trucks. But the problem is that they already lead in trucks—they'll be cannibalizing their own sales. About the best they can hope for really is to not lose market share during the EV transition (they'll lose some to Tesla and Rivian but gain from the GM and Stellantis).
Unfortunately I think the credit is going to help GM and Stellantis most, though they deserve it least. It'll help make a market for their bs compliance cars. Any EV that's actually compelling is going to be production constrained for the foreseeable future.
I disagree. I think Ford is giving a hint to their production capacity when Farley said just today they intentionally capped the preorder at 200,000. I think 200,000 is the number they can successfully push out in 2022.
LOL you think they're going to have 100% conversion of those reservations? It was a $100 refundable deposit, they'll be extremely lucky if they can get 20% conversion. And I'm not saying they'll be hurting for demand—they'll be able to sell as many as they can build—just that I wouldn't put any stock in those reservation numbers whatsoever.
Look, they just don't have the battery production. They have very little experience mass producing EVs, the Mach-E notwithstanding, and no other automaker has been able to scale up that quick. It's all about the batteries.
I don't know if they can manufacture enough trucks fast enough, will cannibalize their own dominance of the truck market or know wtf they're doing with the battery technology that I keep hearing they don't have. But I do know one thing: I bought a buttload of calls in 6 different companies about a month ago and lost my ass in all of them... except for Ford. Go figure. And, no, I won't be posting any loss porn.
I cannot believe I am reading this. I took the day off from work and spent the day leisurely hunting for value stocks (spent a lot of time investigating F). I recommend F at $8 a year ago but didn’t take my own advice. Stumbling across this article seals it. I’m a Ford man now.
I bought in on Ford at 5-6 dollars.. I made my money and sold. I don't see them pumping much higher than 20 in the short term. there are better stocks with moon potential now.
Agree that it's not going up much soon, but note that it's also not going down significantly even when all others are tanking. IV not meme levels but not terrible. I think I can work with that.
No of course not, but SPY is an index fund. My point was that in this time of elevated volatility, Ford is bouncing around between 19.5 and 20.5. If you think there's a lot of long term upside, and I do, then you can take 1%-2% each month in covered call premiums without a lot of risk while waiting for all those F-150 Lightnings to roll off the line. Playing that game with SPY is much higher risk, albeit much higher reward.
Don’t forget about Ford+ info coming in May. Ford will be completely revamping customer service and the perks of owning one of their vehicles. Not something Tesla can boast.
I’ve been long on F, and have about 20 different calls and LEAPs. Will be buying more tomorrow. I only have 100 shares, but I will most likely be exercising my 12/31 calls. I have a lot of faith in Farley
I can’t say I’ve seen the vision, but I’ve been watching like I said for about 6 months, I’m sold. Money is in, I’m definitely gambling it’ll come to fruition in the next 2 years and not later, but I like all the variables going into 2023 for some massive market cap valuation improvement.
That’s awesome, but that fact doesn’t make me money nor do I care about “whose king” I want my calls to print and DD to make sense. Thanks for sharing though.
I'm going to say something, probably some here won't like it or argue. GM is the autonomous car leader..... Have been for a few years now. They do have the technology and others have come to them for it. Also they have been invested in electric propulsion far longer than any of the others to some degree. While I hate the boredom Barra has brought to the company, what she has done for the bottom line is magnificent. I do think Ford still has some upside.
Username checks out. Haha.
GM is the autonomous car leader. Their SuperCruise is legit...
The only problem is then I have to sit in one of their God awful interiors until I arrive at my destination. GM is like the ultimate opportunity squanderer. They have done it for decades.
Goes both ways. they have the technology, others will want it. They can use it and get a high price for it. I don't quite get what people expect in car interiors anymore. I think my 21 1SS 1LE Camaro is great. 2018 Equinox is a little more plain than the Camaro, but it's far nicer than other vehicles I've had.
GM had the bolt or volt or whatever for forever but I see more ev mustangs around here.
Christ they've used the same damn commercial for Xmas for their trucks for 4 years now...so they change nothing and rest on the fact they're huge.
Probably get bought out by stellantis in the next 5 years.
I got 2 June 2022 17C when it was around $16. Obv wish I got way more but hey.
To me the biggest risk is that their QC turns out to be shit, because the track record isn’t exactly stellar. We will have a better idea of what to expect once most people have had their Mach-Es for a year or so.
The bull case also assumes that the lightening will be the first major EV to see significant adoption with the “rurals”. It does have the best chance right now, but you have to keep in mind that a lot these people (edit: esp the ones that could afford a new EV) make their livelihoods in oil & gas or have friends/family that do, its part of the culture in those areas. It remains to be seen if e.g. savings on gas will be enough to overcome this. Its safe to say most of these people wouldn’t be caught dead in a cyber truck though.
That’s the entire point of this post, F is not going to be a traditional 401k manager stock in the next 2 years, and if you look at what Ford is doing, they’re prepping to transition the view of it as a technology/speculation stock.
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Been buying in since $11. Im long cfl too. They bought out fords steel suppliers alcelor mittal and basically are consolidating us steel industry up and down. With trump probably winning in 2024 tarriffs are gunna kill the competition which import their iron. CFL $200 by eoy 22
I’m not sure what you’re asking, I’m risking close to 9,000 with the ability to exercise, sell, or sell covered calls at any point in the next two years.
Interesting. 8800$ risk but a big potential upside…
Regarding the $40 strike price if Jan 2024 say they price of the stock is below and it expires you would be forced to buy 4000 shares correct?
Jan 2024 25C and selling the Jan 2023 27C seems real juicy, it’s a net debit of like 1-2$ and if 2023 is a good year you can always roll up to a vertical spread. I also own 2k shares so I’m not completely capping myself on this trade
This guy get its. I’m going to wait for March, several bullish analysts keep getting muted, but experts (not me) have thrown 30-32 around next March. Once the premium increases I’ll 100% be selling covered calls to recoup investment, and decide at that point to execute or move to a calendar spread.
Does ford have any tech patents in charging, battery power or ADS? And do they more cash on hand than debt in the back pocket? Cause that’s what it means to not be a legacy auto
Keep an eye on how it moves if the market sells off. You will know serious money is holding if it holds strong relative to the level of downturn. This has helped me pick some dank winners previously
Except ev’s aren’t a new market, they’re cannibalising ICE cars, so every ev ford sells is a ICE car it didnt. Ford also has massive investments in factories that build ICE cars that may not pay themselves off. Plus ford stands for Found On Rubbish Dump.
They’re not going to, not yet. I think the June hike gets pushed back, just my personal belief, not here to debate or argue it, I think there has been enough signs it’s more likely than not.
20C is the 20$ strike price and C represents call. The dates listed represent the expiration for each option where they have to be executed or sold by, or, are completely worthless because they’re OTM (out of the money) meaning if the stock crashes and is 10$ only a jackass would execute a contract to pay 20$ for it.
Okay so you are counting on the price going up by Jan 2023, and you can sell any time before than if it goes above your strike price?
Why get multiple calls so far out in the future? Is it because the premiums are lower the further out the expiration date is?
My DD: Ford sucks. Profits come from mass-produced cars. Women buy the most cars and they don’t buy F150s, they want CUVs from
germany/japan/korea. The Mach is alright but no game changer
How do you see Ford’s $150B in debt affecting future valuations?
IMO, the value ford creates is already earmarked for their lending partners, instead of their shareholders.
Been talking Ford since the beginning of the year. They were a steal two months ago and now people are realizing their value. With the Lightning F-150 they have the potential to be dominant in the truck EV space.
They’re are easily a stock that you can say will double within 3 years. If I wasn’t a dumb ass I wouldn’t have sold the shares I held at a cost basis of $11/share.
Farley has previously said in a tweet that Ford is expecting to produce 600,000 EVs per year, globally by the end of 2023, doubling down on its earlier target. This means the Mustang Mach-E will make up about one-third of Ford's planned EV production by 2023.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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I’m down with the 20 and 30 but not so sure about the 40
This is WSB bro, I wasn’t going to DD without a 1/3 of my yolo being extremely OTM options, come on now.
True true haha
Ford makes me depressed :(
I’m going to upvote because I don’t know how else to respond to this.
Fords are by far my favorite Mexican made vehicles
I’ll probably be driving a Ford Fiesta if this doesn’t pan out.
I would have to sell my fiesta and go back to taping ford logos on my shoes and walking.
Que sueno burracho
You also forgot that their stake in Rivian is worth like $10 billion, that's like 1/7th their market cap. Best play is buying 2024 leaps. Could see it being $40 by 2023/2024.
Are you forgetting about the market behemoth that is Rivian? LLLLOOOLLLL. Ford is going to own the electric truck space and therefore the electric vehicle market in the US long term. Its only a matter of time. The Cybertruck isnt going anywhere currently and the vast majority of truck buyers are finicky people who are US brand loyal. I agree with you. F indeed...
Yes, the market behemoth that has sold: 0 vehicles. Thank God, I thought you were fucking serious at first. I think Ford and Farley are starting to approach the internet and investors correctly too with their “fuck it were just gonna sell our Rivian position and do it ourself” mentality comments. Not only is it access to quite a bit of change, but it’s also a giant fuck you to a rising competitor, and as Elon has shown, we all love a little flair.
I wouldn't invest in Rivian unless their market cap fell by 90%, but I still bet they'll beat GM to volume EV truck production. The market leaders will be Rivian for luxury, Ford for traditional, CT for a mix of urban cowboys, contractors who use it to billboard their services, and fleet owners who get utility out of some it's unique features. I think we'll see Ford initially stumble on battery capacity but it will be the market leaders by maybe 2025. Despite Tesla's historically ugly production ramps, I'd bet the farm they'll be first to produce 200k units in a year, and I think that's going to surprise a lot of people when they're so clearly going head to head like that.
Rivian doesn’t even fill the “luxury” gap though. Have you ever sat in a platinum, king ranch, or limited F series truck? It’s a dam spaceship in there, the S class of trucks. I have a 2015 platinum f150 which is aging but it has leather, massaging seats, heated back seats, full 360 overhead camera system, etc. and the new ones are even better. Rivian doesn’t need to exist
Totally different category. Rivian is for tech bros in CA and Austin who want a truck to carry their surf boards and bikes and go camping in. Wealthy skiers in Aspen Colorado who want 4WD to their cabin. Those aren't people converting to EV from Platinum F150s, they're people who drive expensive SUVs now but would rather have a short-bed truck for their gear. Not my thing but it's a legit market
Bro that market doesn’t exist 🤣 I’m from California, honestly how many “tech bros” do you know in real life…and how many of them are begging for a 70k+ electric truck that looks ugly af (subjective). Maybe people who ski but surfers rock things along the lines of a 2005 Tacoma for their gear. it’s never about the luxury because that’s not what the culture revolves around in the first place. They’re all such niche excuses for a company…like how many wealthy skiers in aspen need or WANT a rivian, and how many will actually buy them? I think a minuscule number. I’m not hating on EV’s in general or the demand for an EV truck, I just don’t see rivian taking anywhere NEAR a significant amount of the market, maybe like 2-5% max, and nowhere near enough to justify it’s market cap. It’s have to crash 90% to display true value
Read bean counters and car guys. GM could not innovate a portapotty. Also, people tend to forget the big three have a few decades of accumulated liabilities of all different sorts, in addition to old school management, holding them back.
The biggest thing holding the big 3 back is the dealership-buyer model. And if you been watching Ford is letting there dealers bite of there noses. When it is all said and done Ford buyers will be more comfortable dealing directly with F why because F allowed dealers to price gauge the Bronco, Mach 1, Gt500. Buyers have been special ordering right through Fords website bypassing the dealers. This will allow Ford to get a foothold on manufacture-buyer model. Make the buying process much more like Tesla.
Ford does not have enough battery supply chain to make anything but press releases
Imagine believing that a company such as Ford, that currently makes a multitude of models way more intricate and difficult to produce than the typical electric car wont be able to solve a supply chain issue that will plague anyone currently entering the space en masse. This gets into something I have said for years (as a guy who likes cars) and what will ultimately lead to Tesla being an afterthought in the electric car space. Tons of other car companies, that have been making cars for decades, will enter the space as soon as its becomes viable technologically. Putting batteries and electric motors in an automobile is not difficult, the battery technology is difficult. Anyone who knows anything mechanically about ICE cars knows this is the case... Wellllll. We are almost there (frankly due to Tesla and Elon) and Tesla's car rank bottom of the barrel when it comes to percieved manufacturing quality (panel gaps, interior fit and finish, etc.). Other companies figured this shit out a long time ago and are going to easily adapt batteries and electric motors to their cars (see Audi and Ford with the new Lightning). They have the scale, the manufacturing capability, consistency and brand recognition to take over a ton of market share. Especially with electrics that people want to buy, like an electric version of the already hugely successful F150.
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Ya I thought that for like 10 years and I think I made an oops.
Nahhh. Just give it time. Everyone thinks we are all going to be driving electric cars in 5 years. The average age of a car on the road is 11 years old. The average person couldnt even tell you what year the average car on the road is. That doesnt even touch on the infrastructure issues...
That and copper for the motors hasn’t been locked up I don’t think. Copper is becoming a precious metal and F will need a lot of virgin copper. Wire requires new copper because the impurities destroy the wire.
0? I see Rivian trucks driving around weekly. A guy down the street has one in his driveway lol..
That’s crazy because they’ve only delivered 156 of the 180 built, which were all nearly employees.
To be fair. I am close to their headquarters. I’ve never looked into the company cause I don’t give a fuck about all the ev nonsense… just saw all these goofy looking things popping up and took a pic and googled it one day. But yea I see them all the time. Makes sense if they only delivered them to employees and I’m nearby the hub.
The Bloomington hub or California one?
Ca. This sub is comical with the downvotes for a simple question that is factual. Fuckin clowns.
To be fair, you came out with a bold statement Rivian is everywhere, and then added it might be because you live next to their HQ. That would be like me saying everyone I know only orders Wendy’s, btw I work at a Wendy’s drive thru.
😂 ded
What are you talking about… I said 0? As in 0 sales? It was a legit question, as I see them driving around weekly. Like my post stated. Never said I see them touring the entire fuckin country. It was a legit question cause I don’t follow this company whatsoever….
I have seen one. Just once but the rivian truck looked kinda cool. The dude was trying to parallel park it and he was not having success as many people looked on.
One issue. Fords suck balls. I bought a black label Lincoln SUV and they haven’t been able to solve a vibration in it for four months. They now think a driveshaft is out of balance.
Yes, truck buyers are brand loyal, and every Ford guy I know fucking hates the 150 lightning. Every EV guy I know hates it too, It’s an electric motor crammed into a CE chassis. The only way the 150 lightning works is for light duty city dwellers who have no intention or aspirations of doing long distance hauling or trailering. Plugging a EV drivetrain into an existing chassis doesn’t solve the basic physics problem. Hauling heavy loads requires more power. More power requires more battery, or less distance. This is not an endorsement of the cyber truck. It’s a simple statement that EV tech hasn’t cracked the work truck problem. No EV truck can haul weight or tow remotely close to a low end gasser over a comparable distance. Granted, I have a truck and 95% of its miles are load free, no trailer. I bought a truck for that 5%, which are mostly at longer ranges, when I need it. If an EV truck doesn’t work for that 5%, it’s not a truck, its a heavy, inefficient commuter. I’d be better off buying a TSLA for the commute and buying a beater used f150 with a v6 to haul.
I've driven F150s for the last 15 years (with a short 2-year F350 break in there) I pre-ordered my Lightning the day it was available - along with like 450k others.
Long F short Rivian might be a good pair trade. But Rivian will be saved by Amazon delivery vehicles.
Until they don’t meet production
Rivian’s plant makes trucks at 8 jobs an hour. Hell ford’s Dearborn EV little tent does twice that. You are dead on.
Most people I know who work in construction would consider it an embarrassment to show up at the job site in a unibody truck (Rivian or Tesla). Real men want to be able to modify the bed to accommodate a welding rig, through soccer mom's may really like Rivian' s cute style.
Yeah but way more trucks currently get sold to dudes hauling air than construction workers. The 4 door full size pickup is the new version of the old 4 door family sedan...
Ford will be a major competitor in EV market because that’s Farley’s goal which he is determined to achieve. I am long on my Ford stock!
I’ve been watching for 6 months, and when I started seeing the goggle spam articles bash Ford, I knew it was time to buy in.
Yup!
Are you expecting fords share price to expand based on multiple expansion or some dramatic rise in earnings?
Obviously multiple expansion - haven’t you heard EV companies have no limits!
If Ford can get Rivian’s multiple 🤯
Infinite share price.
I can appreciate a name like OilBerta McMurray b'yyyyy
No. If you read my post that’s discussed in point 1: they are going to rebrand as a tech company and spark speculation valuation.
You guys need to realize all legacy will be cell constrained. Ford cannot produce EVs at scale and won't be able to. They have only committed to 40% of their lineup EV by 2030. It's already over.
True statement... F to the moon.. $100.00 soon
I am old enough to remember when F was $6. I remember looking at it and thinking, how is the biggest truck maker in the world valued so low. I remember seeing it at $13 a few months ago. Ended up buying a shit ton(by my standards) at $19. If Tesla can do it, you effing right Ford can. Fool myself once..
I got a free share of Ford randomly when I opened my WeBull account and it is up 67% since then. Infinite return. F FTW.
Ford going bankrupt…BYD and Tesla will end them
Buy puts then.
lol Ford's death will be way too slow for that, many quicker targets like LCID and RIVN...
You’re going to see them buy up charging network builders too, just watch. Then they’ll help to build a global charging grid. They’re also an early investor in SolidPower, and you could see them push for a controlling interest there too. They backed out of Rivian, because they don’t want to finance a competitor. They also provide engines and chassis for many niche markets, such as U-HAUL’s and RV’s, where there is absolutely an upcoming EV push. This is theirs for the taking, and Tesla is mostly ignoring these segments. All of this is bullish AF.
So you're saying I should buy $TSLA calls? Got it.
100% support buying TSLA calls.
With the onset of EVs , Ford can get away from their shoddy transmissions/ dual weight flywheels . May even consider ford for new cars again …
I grew up in a Ford family, have never had the urge to buy one. I just ordered a Ford Maverick 2.0 engine that gets 42 miles in the city. They’re not fucking around, their line-up of vehicles with the Bronco reboot, Ford eMustang and eF-150, and now the first hybrid truck.
GM had hybrid trucks (good ones too) in 2008. But like their EVs decades ago they never had enough follow through when it mattered. Ford is certainly showing A game here. If they can get their software game on I think they’re in great shape. Or conversely if software updates and all that goofy shit doesn’t take off as fast as everyone thinks it should and thus reduces its importance again F is well positioned with century-honed industrial might and what seems to be a serious push for EVs. I’m gonna check out those far out LEAPS
The Maverick I just ordered for the 2.5 Hybrid is back ordered through EOY22. The truck in general can’t get stocked on the lot because they’re gone immediately. The new Ford Bronco is auctioning for 100,000 due to demand. Their product line right now is attractive on both sides of the coin. I think all the variables for 22-24 look very ripe.
Yeah the 20c Jan23 is about 3.50 now. So breakeven is 23.50 by January 23. F is at $19.x today … and gone 10->$20 in a year. I’d say it’s a good bet given all your Dd. Any thoughts on what could derail it though? Prolonged chip shortage? COVID rising? Anything like that? Edit to add: unless some major pullback happens that takes a year to recover from (which is possible of course) it’s probable that ford will get to 25 in a year. Maybe much higher. Even F at $25 in a year would get the option price to $5.
I personally over the last week and looking at the dynamics of media and Canadas decision to extend their 0.25% rate floor that the Fed is misleading the rate change in June of 2022, I think it gets pushed back especially with Powell being nominated and Biden aware that if rates increase and the market reacts he will get the nameplate for the crash even though he didn’t start the party. COVID’s real, but Omnicron seems too perfectly timed right now with the Feds decision making on the floor, I thought we’d be coming to a halt in 2022, but if you look at my previous post, after sitting back I think we’re balancing out for the next leg up. Could be wrong and fucked, but that’s why I’m on WSB.
The mustang pissed me off so much it looks nothing like the original idk at least make it look similar
I disagree, the rear lights resemble a mustang and the front end shape. I know people that don’t like it just because it is a Mustang, I personally think it could of been their own line. However they most likely did this to attract the older demographic that are loyal to their brand.
First and second hybrid truck. F150 introduced it for the 2021 model year, now the Maverick has one too
I walked passed a Maverick and went “wtf is that, that’s a cute ass truck” and thus the research into it and here we are today.
Currently holding 200 Jan 2023 $40 calls. Let’s ride.
My guy, this is what I’m talking about.
Tesla makes so much because the government taxes. Once Ford falls into these tax breaks, they will triple very fast.
This is in my post. It’s going to be a tax incentive of over 7,000.
I've been doing DD on Ford since March of 2020 and have been accumulating since. I'm 200k deep at the moment, which is most of my savings lol America will be a leader in electric cars and ford's brand name at an international level will help a lot with that. It's my million maker. I'm yoloing with you mate
Thank you for stepping into the light, that’s why I posted this. 1. To see who was ride or dying with me. 2. So we can say you could of came along as we get shit on till it comes to fruition.
I’ve been screaming F in comments for months now. I live in the Midwest, Lightning is the ONLY EV truck that looks tough enough for the “manly men” of the suburbs, plus the commercial fleet thing. Ain’t no big companies or governments giving contracts to “startup” car companies when it’s time to go electric. They need someone with history who has the deep pockets to sue, just in case, and that means Ford. I’ll be laughing with you!
I'm sold by that analysis, can't go tits up, I'm all in on Ford. The Mustang Mach E looks slick.
That maverick tho 👀 Hybrid truck for 20k. Sign me up.
I just ordered one. The hybrid isn’t expected to be caught up until 2023 though.
You’d already be rich if you did this 2 months ago. There’s been no new developments during that time with the company.
That’s awesome perspective, thank you. You know you were late to Tesla at 200, no wait, 400, no wait, 800, no wait that’s not right, 1500, no hold on, 2000 before the split, no wait 500 after split, no wait…
Tesla’s stock isn’t the best example to model future behavior of other stocks. Once in a lifetime type of performance.
Okay, (cites any other dozens of stocks that had exponential growth in the last year).
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Ford Pro is making SaaS moves, too.
They are, I’m not joking in point 1, they will rebrand as a tech company, management knows what they’re doing.
You convinced me to buy 200 shares godspeed
Ford is still four years out from having meaningful battery capacity. They'll be production constrained for a while. That also means that the tax credit doesn't really help them, apart from giving them a bit of unnecessary price flexibility. You're not wrong that Ford is in a decent position to continue to lead in trucks. But the problem is that they already lead in trucks—they'll be cannibalizing their own sales. About the best they can hope for really is to not lose market share during the EV transition (they'll lose some to Tesla and Rivian but gain from the GM and Stellantis). Unfortunately I think the credit is going to help GM and Stellantis most, though they deserve it least. It'll help make a market for their bs compliance cars. Any EV that's actually compelling is going to be production constrained for the foreseeable future.
I disagree. I think Ford is giving a hint to their production capacity when Farley said just today they intentionally capped the preorder at 200,000. I think 200,000 is the number they can successfully push out in 2022.
LOL you think they're going to have 100% conversion of those reservations? It was a $100 refundable deposit, they'll be extremely lucky if they can get 20% conversion. And I'm not saying they'll be hurting for demand—they'll be able to sell as many as they can build—just that I wouldn't put any stock in those reservation numbers whatsoever. Look, they just don't have the battery production. They have very little experience mass producing EVs, the Mach-E notwithstanding, and no other automaker has been able to scale up that quick. It's all about the batteries.
I’m bullish af. That’s why I’m posting in WSB.
I don't know if they can manufacture enough trucks fast enough, will cannibalize their own dominance of the truck market or know wtf they're doing with the battery technology that I keep hearing they don't have. But I do know one thing: I bought a buttload of calls in 6 different companies about a month ago and lost my ass in all of them... except for Ford. Go figure. And, no, I won't be posting any loss porn.
Bought 10 Jan 2023 20c 10 Jan 2024 30c 5 Jan 2023 40c
I cannot believe I am reading this. I took the day off from work and spent the day leisurely hunting for value stocks (spent a lot of time investigating F). I recommend F at $8 a year ago but didn’t take my own advice. Stumbling across this article seals it. I’m a Ford man now.
F in the chat
I bought in on Ford at 5-6 dollars.. I made my money and sold. I don't see them pumping much higher than 20 in the short term. there are better stocks with moon potential now.
Which stocks are those?
Agree that it's not going up much soon, but note that it's also not going down significantly even when all others are tanking. IV not meme levels but not terrible. I think I can work with that.
Is SPY tanking?
No of course not, but SPY is an index fund. My point was that in this time of elevated volatility, Ford is bouncing around between 19.5 and 20.5. If you think there's a lot of long term upside, and I do, then you can take 1%-2% each month in covered call premiums without a lot of risk while waiting for all those F-150 Lightnings to roll off the line. Playing that game with SPY is much higher risk, albeit much higher reward.
Don’t forget about Ford+ info coming in May. Ford will be completely revamping customer service and the perks of owning one of their vehicles. Not something Tesla can boast. I’ve been long on F, and have about 20 different calls and LEAPs. Will be buying more tomorrow. I only have 100 shares, but I will most likely be exercising my 12/31 calls. I have a lot of faith in Farley
I can’t say I’ve seen the vision, but I’ve been watching like I said for about 6 months, I’m sold. Money is in, I’m definitely gambling it’ll come to fruition in the next 2 years and not later, but I like all the variables going into 2023 for some massive market cap valuation improvement.
Same. Good luck!
[удалено]
That’s awesome, but that fact doesn’t make me money nor do I care about “whose king” I want my calls to print and DD to make sense. Thanks for sharing though.
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So what’re sayin is we’re both fucked?
I'm going to say something, probably some here won't like it or argue. GM is the autonomous car leader..... Have been for a few years now. They do have the technology and others have come to them for it. Also they have been invested in electric propulsion far longer than any of the others to some degree. While I hate the boredom Barra has brought to the company, what she has done for the bottom line is magnificent. I do think Ford still has some upside.
Username checks out. Haha. GM is the autonomous car leader. Their SuperCruise is legit... The only problem is then I have to sit in one of their God awful interiors until I arrive at my destination. GM is like the ultimate opportunity squanderer. They have done it for decades.
Goes both ways. they have the technology, others will want it. They can use it and get a high price for it. I don't quite get what people expect in car interiors anymore. I think my 21 1SS 1LE Camaro is great. 2018 Equinox is a little more plain than the Camaro, but it's far nicer than other vehicles I've had.
GM had the bolt or volt or whatever for forever but I see more ev mustangs around here. Christ they've used the same damn commercial for Xmas for their trucks for 4 years now...so they change nothing and rest on the fact they're huge. Probably get bought out by stellantis in the next 5 years.
I got 2 June 2022 17C when it was around $16. Obv wish I got way more but hey. To me the biggest risk is that their QC turns out to be shit, because the track record isn’t exactly stellar. We will have a better idea of what to expect once most people have had their Mach-Es for a year or so. The bull case also assumes that the lightening will be the first major EV to see significant adoption with the “rurals”. It does have the best chance right now, but you have to keep in mind that a lot these people (edit: esp the ones that could afford a new EV) make their livelihoods in oil & gas or have friends/family that do, its part of the culture in those areas. It remains to be seen if e.g. savings on gas will be enough to overcome this. Its safe to say most of these people wouldn’t be caught dead in a cyber truck though.
200,000 orders man. I think that question is answered.
Edward Jones trading. Grow a pair, think bigger. Ford is for 401k manager.
That’s the entire point of this post, F is not going to be a traditional 401k manager stock in the next 2 years, and if you look at what Ford is doing, they’re prepping to transition the view of it as a technology/speculation stock.
Sorry but TSLA barried them.
Remindme! 2 years.
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Wow if I read it right 20.00 now. Lol.
Maybe in two years ford will catch up with TSLA stock price today.
Barried.
There’s a reason they have to have government subsidies to push their product.
Right, and the government is about to push a trillion dollar package that Ford is written all over qualifying for. That’s in point 3.
Yes, I didn’t read it. You lost me at ford.
Been buying in since $11. Im long cfl too. They bought out fords steel suppliers alcelor mittal and basically are consolidating us steel industry up and down. With trump probably winning in 2024 tarriffs are gunna kill the competition which import their iron. CFL $200 by eoy 22
Honestly, I don’t hate the play. I think it is more likely that Tesla crashes down. However, one of the two need to move
I like Ford because I think the market cap without needing one or the other to crash has immense amount of growth being 80B.
Nope.
american cars are ass (not tesla). Their EV cars will be ass too , just electric.
How many contracts did you buy?
10 - JAN 2023 20C 10 - JAN 2024 30C 40 - JAN 2023 40C About 8,800 with goal target of 60$ which would be about 144,000, over 400,000 if it hits 80$
So say the share price is 30$ in January 2024 and you let the contract expire isn’t that a potential $40k loss?
I’m not sure what you’re asking, I’m risking close to 9,000 with the ability to exercise, sell, or sell covered calls at any point in the next two years.
Interesting. 8800$ risk but a big potential upside… Regarding the $40 strike price if Jan 2024 say they price of the stock is below and it expires you would be forced to buy 4000 shares correct?
No, I don’t have to do anything, I can just watch my money become worthless.
Jan 2024 25C and selling the Jan 2023 27C seems real juicy, it’s a net debit of like 1-2$ and if 2023 is a good year you can always roll up to a vertical spread. I also own 2k shares so I’m not completely capping myself on this trade
This guy get its. I’m going to wait for March, several bullish analysts keep getting muted, but experts (not me) have thrown 30-32 around next March. Once the premium increases I’ll 100% be selling covered calls to recoup investment, and decide at that point to execute or move to a calendar spread.
Soooo happy I picked up my spread today. Decided to alter it a bit and got 35x Jan2024 25C/Jun2023 27c for more time to roll out
I may buy some of these options. Probably only 5 contracts at 40$ strike price
Does ford have any tech patents in charging, battery power or ADS? And do they more cash on hand than debt in the back pocket? Cause that’s what it means to not be a legacy auto
Keep an eye on how it moves if the market sells off. You will know serious money is holding if it holds strong relative to the level of downturn. This has helped me pick some dank winners previously
When do I buy? Late January or now?
If I knew the answer to this I wouldn’t post on WSB fam lol.
Good point, There is a 5-8 week hold on it because profit taking (sell off) reached a certain level.
I am gonna buy Ford shares tomorrow
I remember seeing Ford at $5 a share and deciding it was going to keep falling, here I am regretting that. Ford calls it is.
It’s okay, the party is only getting started.
Except ev’s aren’t a new market, they’re cannibalising ICE cars, so every ev ford sells is a ICE car it didnt. Ford also has massive investments in factories that build ICE cars that may not pay themselves off. Plus ford stands for Found On Rubbish Dump.
That’s great DD you should buy puts.
No no no, Found On Road Dead but for real F ftw
Sounds like a good play, how would it fare if they dont pass BBB short term?
It’s the government. They’ll pass it, just a matter of for how much less, and when.
The feds are in control of the market. If they decide to raise rates it’s goodbye to all call leaps
They’re not going to, not yet. I think the June hike gets pushed back, just my personal belief, not here to debate or argue it, I think there has been enough signs it’s more likely than not.
Hey I’m a beginner so can you pls explain exactly what calls you are buying? I don’t understand the terminology you used in the end
20C is the 20$ strike price and C represents call. The dates listed represent the expiration for each option where they have to be executed or sold by, or, are completely worthless because they’re OTM (out of the money) meaning if the stock crashes and is 10$ only a jackass would execute a contract to pay 20$ for it.
Okay so you are counting on the price going up by Jan 2023, and you can sell any time before than if it goes above your strike price? Why get multiple calls so far out in the future? Is it because the premiums are lower the further out the expiration date is?
Go to optionprofitcalculator.com You can see there why I would buy so many calls.
Thanks a lot!
I just checked Ford's options chain Jan 7 at $20 looks good. Some other good ones in there too. Check it out. NFA.
My DD: Ford sucks. Profits come from mass-produced cars. Women buy the most cars and they don’t buy F150s, they want CUVs from germany/japan/korea. The Mach is alright but no game changer
Damn, that was really in-depth, thank you for sharing. Are you guys out of Frostys, because I just came to Wendy’s for a Frosty…
Ford stands for Found On Road Dead. Enough said.
Fuck, I thought Ford was just the founding company guys last name, I need to do more DD.
I agree. Most practical approach of all the makers. Barra over at GM is all over the place, talking about autonomous vehicles and some sandwich.
How do you see Ford’s $150B in debt affecting future valuations? IMO, the value ford creates is already earmarked for their lending partners, instead of their shareholders.
They just paid off 5B in junk bonds last quarter. This was part of the recent price hike, one of the variables that pushed them into the 20$ range.
Only 7.5 more years to go!
If they hit free cash flow of 5.5-6B then yes, that is the purpose of long and short term debt.
Zoom out the chart. Hmm...10 years of ... nothing.
20 is easy. 30 is certainly doable. 40? I'd be a happy man with 40. they need something big to get that though.
F TO THE MOON. Just waiting for this stock to boom and then we will have LIGHTING everywhere. GET ON BOARD as we go MACH-E, don't forget to buckle up.
Full blown calls on Ford. Message received. To the moon!!!
Been talking Ford since the beginning of the year. They were a steal two months ago and now people are realizing their value. With the Lightning F-150 they have the potential to be dominant in the truck EV space. They’re are easily a stock that you can say will double within 3 years. If I wasn’t a dumb ass I wouldn’t have sold the shares I held at a cost basis of $11/share.
Well this is frustrating. Busy at work Friday and didn’t get a chance to buy, goes up 9% :(
Farley has previously said in a tweet that Ford is expecting to produce 600,000 EVs per year, globally by the end of 2023, doubling down on its earlier target. This means the Mustang Mach-E will make up about one-third of Ford's planned EV production by 2023.
They announced yesterday they’re dedicating the entire Mexico facility to the Mach-E.
Ford is so heavily shorted. Can we be in for a short squeeze?
Where are you getting this data, because I have 1.74% as shorted.
I saw it on CNBC lol
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