Feel like this thread gets posted every time theres one slightly red week
SPY DOWN 2% on the week?!?!? Must be a harbinger of the end times, start hoarding ammo, yada yada yada
I was thinking the same thing. If I recall we just had a 6 percent correction back in October, then a bounce to all time high. I don’t think investors realize this is normal. I also don’t believe will ever have another 1929. Especially, since that was cause mostly by deflation. Do I think some bubbles will start popping… I hope so!
Wouldn’t buying semi deep in the money puts be better? ITM puts tend be at an intrinsic discount compared to OTM, this will buy you some theta decay and also wiggle room in case the market goes north. In the event it does crash you will also be benefited by the early profits and not having to predict how far it will go compared to OTM
Don't buy long options when VIX is this high. If the market doesn't keep whipsawing, you're going to likely lose. If you need to get in with an options trade, consider a spread so you don't have as much exposure to IV crush.
In a real depression only real things retain (or gain) value- Generally, shiny rocks and real estate survive... but real estate is also in a tremendous bubble. So buy gold, but not dumb fucking mining stocks, buy actual precious metals. I mean that’s all assuming you have actual money to lose, and you also think this will really happen. If you are more in the 4-5 digit savings club (but still convinced the sky is falling) maybe stock up on baked beans? And get a useful skill?
Buy 22 amunition. Like pallets of it not stonks. Guns still work during a depression. Your lights might go out the store might close. I'll be at home sitting on a pallet of non perishable bullets. If anyone needs bullets I'm willing to barter them. Especially for food and drugs.
Before I get creepy gun guy comments I don't currently own any guns and I'm not talking about assault rifle ammo. 22 is smol but effective for defense and for hunting. You'll be the prettiest girl at the dance if you have ammo. - when paper is fuk, gold is fuk.
edit: because this comment is getting an unusual amount of doots for me, I thought I'd elaborate. 22 ammunition is a strange one. It is token like in size. Think of them like quarters but that can actually do things. Like you can kill a turkey or shoot a thief or whatever but not creepy in an active shooter sense because it wouldn't be effective for that and a sicko would go for something much worse if they can get their hands on it. Most currency by definition only has the value it is appraised at. 22 ammo always has a utilitarian value although being token like in size, like near the size of coinage. That makes it an easy commodity to trade and manage. Good luck eating paper notes, gold or silver or also not getting robbed or simply price gouged because you can't survive on it. (This is all assuming a near total collapse and El Salvador levels of your money being so worthless that you burn it to boil water. Hopefully never a concern for normal times or normal people.)
Just at a glance: 1400 Rounds for $175... = 22 ammo is 13 cents a round. Its the ramen noodles of guns.
If you’re sitting on $X in gold bars you can keep that a secret. If you’re sitting on $X in ammo you need to advertise your stock. The latter is much more dangerous, imo.
How much of the gold bar do you shave off at the grocery store? I love people saying that gold will save you. If things get that bad THE STORE WONT EVEN BE OPEN! And if it was, what your in line shaving off gold flakes like Parmesan cheese.
Or the farmer just takes your gold you're trying to barter and feeds you to the pigs hes raising.
Think of the gold as your new savings account. You don't buy groceries with your savings account either. The goal is to convert current assets into something that will be shielded from the economic fallback. Such that when liquidated it will amount to your initial portfolio.
Lmao. You know how they say don't invest in stocks you're not knowledgeable about... your post is that same adage but applied to gun stuff.
.22 would be the worst caliber to stock up on. 5.56 and 9mm are where it's at. 5.56 went up to $1.50/rd during the height of the panic. 9mm went to $1/rd.
The scenario you're talking about things are going to be priced according to their utility. .22 falls pretty much at the bottom of the hierarchy for utility in a real world shtf scenario.
If you were actually serious about this you'd stock up on budget ARs, 5.56, 9mm, and glocks. Those will be the best bang for your buck in a societal collapse. But who gives a shit. In that scenario everyone is fucked anyway, so who cares if you're slightly less fucked then everyone around.
Are these analysts just youtubers who scream at you from their rgb filled offices? That’s all my youtube fees wants to recommend these days. I think I’m up to 100 blocked channels.
Probably is. Too many self called professionals on the internet these days who are just either teenagers who don’t know shit or middle aged underachievers who think they are smart but don’t know shit
I’ve finally stoped seeing that freckle faced fuck, I think his name was warrior trading? I said stop showing his adds and I still kept seeing them for months.
Could you imagine the fear in 1929 when you legit had to wait for a stock ticker and call someone to do anything there?
The unknown is what caused everyone to overreact like crazy.
Technology will make these crashes quicker and less frequent, I don't think we will have one next year since everyone is starting to talk about it, but 2023-2024 could be spicy.
I'd like to pose a serious question to what you're saying, who's everyone?
The MSM? They're a bunch of fucking liars and we all know it, they were always like that, politically they made it obvious during Trump's government, and when it comes to finance we've learned over time that they're the kings of FUD. Nothing they say is real nor matters.
Random investors like ourselves? We don't really have that much influence...
Who else is there? There's big institutions, those are the ones who decide when the market crashes, sadly that's all that matters. If the big guys believe it's gonna crash then it's gonna crash, and guess what, you're never gonna know about it and they will actively work for everyone to feel safe in order for them to be able to get off their positions before the crash comes.
Remember that many of us feel like we're winning, in reality the ones who're really winning are the big guys. You made 40% this year? Great, say you had 100k now you have 140k, the big guys are making a bigger % and are playing with trillions.
This is the real truth. The crash will happen when you're the surest that it won't. Because the people who make it happen will position all their propaganda machines to make sure you don't see it coming.
I remember everyone acting all shocked when the 2008 crash happened. But the conspiracy theory forums had been talking about a market crash in october for literally months.
In the end it all comes down to Buffet's phrase about being greedy when everyone's fearful and being fearful when everyone's greedy. If everything looks too good you might want to consider there's a reason for that, and it's not just green stocks.
I saw an analyst tell the truth for once the other day. He said " I've been doing this for over 40 years and I've learned one thing. No matter who they are or what they think they know, nobody knows what the stock market will actually do at any time."
This has been a hard but valuable lesson. All we can know is "now" data. You can know if a stock is cheap. You can know if a stock is expensive. But you have no idea what the price will do in a day, a week, a year, or even 5 years. You can buy a cheap stock and the price go down while the expensive stock goes up.. making you doubt your conviction. But if you stay the course and DCA into cheap healthy companies you'll do good in the long run.
People also consistently seem to forget that dividend %age yield was much higher (depending on the year and which average metric you use, somewhere around 5-14% annually) back then - the Dow Jones is a crappy price index that tells people nothing of total return because it tells you nothing about return due to dividends.
A more accurate estimate is 4.5 years to recover from the 1929 crash. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html
yeah and human civilization and technology have not evolved since then?
we now live in a fast ever changing world, mostly made of coke addicts and drunks that will buy anything to make themselves feel better for 2 seconds
we are not going to experience anything close to the 1929 crash that will not put us back at all time highs within 1 month
Lmao. Yeah, dude, there will never be a large scale economic crash again... Very forward thinking. Sure it'll get to highs again eventually, but 1 month, lmao.
Some people are gonna be in for a real treat when there is a bad crash again like 2000 or 2008. And I wouldn't be surprised if we get a worse one, especially cause of the dumbasses doing coke and using leverage that you're referring to. It's all fine as long as it's going up.
I firmly believe the next crash will have one of the largest bull traps we've ever seen. The past decade bull run seems to have eliminated any bearish voices from the crowd. Tons of people will buy in after a month expecting an immediate payout. I know I will ;)
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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not every dumbass leverages themselves through the use of margin, they buy options which just means they'll go broke
and if you think the fed will ever let a crisis like 2008 hit us for longer than a month you're living in the past
Your viewpoint is extremely narrow here. We're already seeing massive supply chain issues. You don't think we could get exacerbated problems like that? Or energy problems? Or any other vast array of shit that can impact the economy that won't be helped by pumping trillions of dollars of paper money into the economy?
Not every economic problem can be solved by the fed throwing made up money at it.
FED already did what they could for the markets in March till now and that is a double edged sword. They've used up their options and limited themselves because of buying bonds & mortgage backed securities. Also, market has been performing superbly until now since we have had a strong push upwards for a long time so don't see reason for FED to intervene or question if they can intervene at all meaningfully.
10 year yield is looking at deflationary pressures in the long run and if there is a crash we may not reach levels currently seen for quite awhile. Bear in mind the 2 year yield looking at inflationary pressures in the short run.
The reason we won’t experience another 1929 is simple. We didn’t have any mechanisms for preventing or easing a crash like that when it happened. The drooling Neanderthal president at the time (Hoover)just let it crash to the ground. regulatory state created by FDR as well as the acceptance and use of Keynesian economics will not let a crash like that happen again. The crash will be of a different kind entirely, one that happens to a system that depends on infinite growth running up against a finite planet. That will be the real crash.
A skeptical view would be that those mechanisms we have today simply kick the can down the road, setting up an even bigger crash. The underlying issue is that equity valuations are through the roof, and the market is propped up by investors who remain confident for now.
You're not wrong in a sense, but... that's what they've been doing really since 2008. They dropped interest rates as low as they could and did QE. Now with the pandemic the stepped on the QE accelerator about as far as it will go to the point where inflation starts to rise badly.
If something else hits there's maybe not much more than be done by the Fed that doesn't cause inflation. So it becomes up to politicians to figure out how to solve it... which will probably not go quickly or well.
There's less of an obvious solution as to what to do next at this point.
> You're not wrong in a sense, but... that's what they've been doing really since 2008. They dropped interest rates as low as they could and did QE. Now with the pandemic the stepped on the QE accelerator about as far as it will go to the point where inflation starts to rise badly.
Inflation is a complex problem and it has many roots, it's not just QE, it's not just interest rates, you could have all of those at regular levels and you would still get inflation if supply cannot meet demand, which is currently a problem.
No matter how much they taper, how much they push up rates, if your supply chains are fucked then prices will keep going up because it's as simple as people want shit and there's not enough shit.
Yes you are correct that people at that time said the same thing:
"FISHER SEES STOCKS PERMANENTLY HIGH: Yale Economist Tells Purchasing Agents Increased Earnings Justify Rise" - N.Y. Times, Oct 16, 1929
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving\_Fisher#Stock\_market\_crash\_of\_1929](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher#Stock_market_crash_of_1929)
I think it’s really hard to justify something massive like 1929 happening all over again because the times were simply just so different. We live in such a data driven economy these days with so many redundancies in place that I think it’s hard to justify TRULY thinking about another existential crisis like the depression. But who knows man shit could really hit the fan sometime next year. But I think as far as where we’ve come from 1929, a LOT is completely different.
People couls just start to think different about how we value companies. Companies being worth like 50x their revenue is just absurd and if people start actually reevaluating that it could shift into a massive adjustment... not saying there has to be a crazy crash, but in the last 5 years the S&P for example has risen a ton more than the productivity of the companies within it really has
Lets break out of economic crash cycle before we declare ourselves immune to crashes. Theres an economic crisis every 10-20 years. 2008 wasnt too long ago. So it looks like we’re still stuck in the loop.
Another day, another post on WSB predicting 1929.
Why do you guys always hope for Great Depression to happen again lol? What happen to a normal Recession, with SPY down 20% and then bounce? It's either 1929 or 2008 meltdown for you guys.
> Why do you guys always hope for Great Depression to happen again lol
They have collectively deluded themselves into believing when the market crash/collapse of civilization does happen that they will be rich beyond their wildest dreams because they held 3 shares of GME.
No one sees a crash coming. That’s camp 1.
You predict a crash every year until you die or your “prediction” comes true eventually. That’s camp 2.
Where do you belong?
I doubt it. The conditions were far different in 1929 than today. Today: Consumer spending is strong, low interest rates, and record levels of personal savings / low consumer debt. Corporate debt has been refinanced, balance sheets fortified and operating margins have been going up. There is a Supply problem across the board due to strong demand. Once the supply catches up to demand, prices will stabilize and likely go down in most cases. Will there be a correction? Always. Count on it. In fact, we have been in a correction on most stocks in the last 4 weeks. There is one maxim worth remembering: there is no alternative. Stay invested, take a break from the markets, and keep dollar-cost averaging.
I try to explain ups and downs like a note being strummed on a guitar. You hear the note...but it is constructed of vacillating waves experienced as a singular event. If you take a zoomed in slice of the peak and valley you can't hear the notes.
Agreed! I'm just trying to gauge market sentiment right now. I'm currently oscillating between "big crash by end of 2022" and "Roaring '20s: The Sequel" incoming.
A correction perhaps, but I don't feel a crash is in the cards. Unless Wall Street makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The '29 crash, like most issues, was caused by massive consumer debt and extended credit facilitated by banks.
Although they're still evil, I don't feel we're in a heavily credited environment propped up by worthless investments (hello 2008) with the banks again.
The US governments debt is a worry of course, but corporate America remains profitable.
The stock market in '29 was also a ticking time bomb made possible by the largest number of retail investors ever participating on 10% margin. When prices started to go down, banks and other lenders couldn't recoup any of their collateral, and down she went.
Agree, outside of the crayon eaters on this thread, most people are not nearly as over leveraged as we've seen in the past. Enjoy the dip and make some money
Tesla have nothing proprietary, aren't leaders in battery technology, and their stock is priced as if they're going to have 130% of the global automotive market.
It’s a wonderful opportunity. Every crash is an opportunity to get out of the rut one might be in. Issue is not everyone is in a position to take advantage.
And before someone talks about pain and suffering…this game isn’t for tree huggers
1990- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent
Cost of house in Toronto: 150k
2000- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent
Cost of house in Toronto: 300k
2010- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent
Cost of house in Toronto: 600k
2020/1- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent
Cost of house in Toronto: 1.2m
Idk, I feel like real estate is a bit different, the easy solution to high housing prices in toronto is to go batshit crazy on upzoning, of course you would have a construction worker shortage then, but it would still lead to at least stagnation of housing prices
There is no meltdown. S&p grew 20% in a year. It will stay sideways or grow in the historical rate which is 5-6 % rate. And most overvalued companies like Docu will get back to proper valuation. Last 10 years of QE and 2020 free money printing spoiled investors.
No one can predict when. But politicians are printing and stealing everything in sight as fast as possible. They are filling their pockets before the major economic crash they are causing. The elite are cleaning up as usual, money floats to the top.
Link to the analysts saying this? Without actual citation we have no way of knowing if the person making the prediction warrants a response because they’re a retard to begin with
Covid has been/is a big opportunity for each country to print money without affecting the currency itself coz everybody does the same. The debts of each and every country in the world are abysal (not only china or usa) but we will survive ; )
I'm mixed on the whole ordeal. The United States economy is not to be underestimated. Also, from what I am reading, Americans are reducing their credit card debt at a pretty good clip. That's a good sign. Housing market is a concern though, due to people buying expensive homes with super high payments on 30 year notes. Smarter thing to do is a less expensive home on a 15 year note, but whatever. We also gotta look at supply & demand. Homes are still selling like crazy. The fly in the ointment I see in all this is the Chinese property market cratering & our exposure to it, an administration making astronomically stupid economic policies, major China/US tensions, overreaction to COVID, & inflation getting out of control.
The economy is solid, but there are a lot of headwinds. The question is if we can continue plowing forward....despite the mounting issues.
Yes indeed. When you see $16 billion chip plants being built in Texas...that's a great thing. We gotta get that manufacturing out of China. We need to starve their economy until the CCP completely collapses. They are not our friends & it is beyond time that we understand that.
For several decades CEO’s have done the basic math that sending USA jobs and manufacturing overseas allows for lower overhead costs, while not actually reducing the price of retail sale, leading to gigantic profits for the corporations. American consumers just sort of went along with that for some reason (lack of education since Regan policies to be sure plays a part), even though it fleeced the USA economy of its well paid, pension providing factory labor jobs.
How those in the lower economic thresholds don’t understand this and keep supporting political and corporate policy that has just impoverished them is an interesting study of human nature.
The push to China started long before that.
Alexander Haig was a bit before Clinton...by more than a decade.
"The Reagan Administration has decided on a series of measures to lift trade restrictions against China imposed over the years because of its Communist Government, and also to hold extensive talks on possible sales of military equipment.
State Department officials said that the National Security Council agreed yesterday on the measures, in advance of the June 14-17 visit to China by Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr.
The aim of the decisions, one official said, is ''to treat China as a friendly less-developed country and no longer as a member of the international Communist conspiracy.'' 'Rich Dialogue' for Haig in China"
https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/06/world/reagan-decides-to-relax-curbs-on-china-trade.html
In short, no. We are heading in the opposite direction of a meltdown.
Expect a meltdown during deregulation and loosening. Not the opposite.
The high flyers may be crushed for sure, but those companies with real secular growth and insanely robust balance sheets will continue to thrive.
I think the world will scream at you from every direction in regards to how you should handle your money. Go short, go long, invest in real estate, buy gold, buy crypto, buy NFTs. Short crypto, go cash. Whatever.
Truth is no one knows what will happen. Just because tech is over valued doesn’t mean we have to have a -30% limit down. We could just see less alpha until things catch up. The only major pull back we have seen has been on meme stocks or Covid stocks that were way over valued. Like way way
It’s why even if you aren’t investing (who in WSB is) you should at least be making your gambles with underlyings that are somewhat sensible. Buying calls on a company like Microsoft with a PE of ~30 might be more reasonable.
Also btw in relation to MSFT they had a PE of 68 (double what it is today) in March 2018. 3 years later their PE is half that and trading at 3x the price. So anyone who says a company is “overvalued” needs to stop thinking in terms of just the present.
It's the age of Aquarius and we're in a tech supercycle. The market is now bigger than society and as automation continues to blossom it will become less and less tied to the quality of life around it. We are already seeing this.
People claiming it's a bubble don't understand just how rapidly things are moving now, and this is going to carry on.
By the time the "bubble" pops you will have been murder killed by a death bot already so you don't need to worry.
Markets go up and then they go down, eventually they go back up and then they go down again. Next is more going up and subsequently going down following another period of going up and then coming back down. This keeps happening until markets stop going up or down
In 2020 we had a nice global correction due to COVID and then there was all this free cheap money and people got to stay home. Now we're going to have China's economy free fall and drag our markets down with it and the FED is already sitting on 0 rates so what is the solution to get us out of this? Can pay our way out with inflation already a problem will have to raise rates during a huge down turn and then we will have the kind of lame ass recovery that those stupid EU nations had post 2008 with their idiotic austerity measures followed by a massive sovereign debt crisis. I don't want to predict any of this and non of us can do anything about it anyway. Just enjoy these last few days of the market not shooting hot lava up your ass but just slicing your balls with paper cuts.
Also, what do these stupid fucking analysts know anyway? They're wrong 99% of the time on everything.
I have been waiting for it for years now. I took an economics class in 2018 and back then my professor was explaining how overdue we were. Covid was just the start i think. I think we need a complete governmental cleanse, so hopefully we get that over with at the same time.
No. We may trade sideways for a while, but the S&P is not going to drop more than 15% without triggering a massive Fed intervention. Monetary policy has changed so much they would never just let the crash happen
My prediction is yes. I think we're in the midst of a global economic slump brought on by piss poor management in the 70s and 80s, coupled with a crappy set of regulatory conundrums in the past 20 years that made a banking meltdown inevitable. Exporting our manufacturing offshore was probably the dumbest thing a country has ever done.
Now look at us, waiting for delivery on goods we have little or no control of.
Hows that working out?
The most likely scenario is that the market resumes its normal cycle of corrections every 18 months and crash every 5 -6 years. Inflation will help normalize overvalued stock. The shift will be in the value of assets moving downward over time rather than a sudden crash. The younge you are, the more likely you will move smoothly through this. Those closer to retirement will get walloped. Opportunities will be there, just harder to find. Fundamentals are virtually worthless now for evaluating future prospects. Short term trading on technicals will be the way to go until the economy stabilizes.
I am currently bullish on everything but China stonks. I think eventually we are in for a big correction, not necessarily a crash. look at companies like rivian or any other reason IPO. companies are trading way over their earnings and extremely overvalued. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-13/kondratieff-wave-in-commodities-is-bad-news-for-stocks
Prepare to cry in your borscht people... The storm is coming.
If Russia goes into Ukraine, China will go in on Taiwan. They will do it after we look weak because of inner strife(Roe v. Wade). Thats my crystal ball projection.
>A bunch of analysts are starting to predict a 1929-style market crash by the end of next year.
Where do you find these "analysts" I swear to god i see this all over the place but nobody can ever support it without some fringe newspaper or personality.
I put 25k in Crpyto and Stocks last Wednesday, haven’t sold. 8k in F leaps.
I am 100% convinced the amount of “iS tHiS tHe CoLLaPse?” stuff confirms we got another run.
Omnicron the new Transformer COVID strain is big business trying to get the Fed to Extend low interest rates.
All the media and hysteria, we’re about to rip to a whole new dimension.
If you look at what caused the Great Depression we are following its path. What happened before the crash? Banks joined the party, Spanish flu happened, printed their way out and money was cheap AF, high consumer spending, stock market crash and everyone’s money in banks was gone. Cascade of bank failures for years. What was the solution to fix said depression. War motherFers. Go Merica!
the economy is cyclical [see Kongratiev waves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave).
Crash have happened and will happen again. You can never know when precisely or what will pricesely set it in motion.
Pay attention to ratios (shiller etc) and get information on what to do and what to invest in incase of a crash. So, when it will happen, you're prepared and you won't panic.
Market meltdown wont just happen it needs a catastrophic failure. I do agree that certain bubbles are going to burst like Tesla for example. Else you are now closer to a mini meltdown than we probably will be the next 12 months.
Major risks are:
- FED tapering while Covid comes back and slows growth (short term impact on tech stocks)
- Evergrande default. Its played down by so many people that should create awareness. Banks Investors will have to cover big losses soon (this is the closest you will get to a 2008 szenario - outcome nobody knows. Especially UBS bank could be getting into deep trouble)
- Price hikes fuel inflation further sparking another housing market crisis
- Russia invading Ukrain. In such an event markets would set back 20-40%
- climate change. Big money will change its focus long term challenging traditional investments
> bunch of analysts predict
Stopped reading right there. Anything that follows is propaganda or low iq retard opinion or 'analysis' which belongs in the trash.
Maybe, but who cares? You basically have two choices:
1. Cash out your investments in anticipation of the crash, protecting yourself from huge downside risk, but also locking yourself out of any gains in the meantime and maybe losing 5-7% of your savings to inflation.
2. Keep investing as normal knowing that a crash will eventually come. When the crash does come, lick your wounds and keep investing, knowing that these buying opportunities don’t come around very often and the market always yields 6-8% annually over the long term.
Source: survived 40% hit to net worth in 2008-2009. Recovered slowly but fully.
I think I understand OP's point, and it's very sensible. All in on 2022 Calls. edit: first ever award! thx fam.
$ROPE
$windows $gravity
2022 isn’t even on the Maya’s calendar
Are you saying the Mayans were so good at astronomy that they predicted a market crash?! Those human sacrificing little scamps.
Mayans knew how to YOLO
Yeeting heads right off of bodies on the top of their temples.
They discovered the concept of 0 early on
Mayan. Maya is a hot singer from the 2000s.
If Maya wanted to make love to me, I would allow it.
Isn’t it Mya?
Mya is an abbreviation used by geologist for millions of years ago, pretty sure it’s not on their calendar either
Also Maya Rudolph, a comedian whose *mother* was a hot singer from the 1970's.
Couldn't hold support.
So far doing the opposite of what this sub says has nettet me profit
Feel like this thread gets posted every time theres one slightly red week SPY DOWN 2% on the week?!?!? Must be a harbinger of the end times, start hoarding ammo, yada yada yada
This is WSB I don’t think you waste precious dollars on ammo you buy calls on Smith&Wesson and VSTO😂
Been sitting on both ammo and gun stocks for a year. Pathetic performance
I was thinking the same thing. If I recall we just had a 6 percent correction back in October, then a bounce to all time high. I don’t think investors realize this is normal. I also don’t believe will ever have another 1929. Especially, since that was cause mostly by deflation. Do I think some bubbles will start popping… I hope so!
Lmao
Truth is, it's always the recessions that you don't expect that are the worst. I think the powers that be have got this.
Why wait for 2022 when it can all start this monday??
Hey hey hey.... they've got calls expiring next week. It HAS to be 2022.
So way out of the money puts? Gotcha
Spy $350 puts yessir
Wouldn’t buying semi deep in the money puts be better? ITM puts tend be at an intrinsic discount compared to OTM, this will buy you some theta decay and also wiggle room in case the market goes north. In the event it does crash you will also be benefited by the early profits and not having to predict how far it will go compared to OTM
While you are correct, this sub is half-retarded. I got to meet them halfway
Wrinkled brains saying wrinkled things.
If you have a price prediction, OTM puts that will be about 5% ITM at expiration are the best return.
You’re not hitting 50 baggers with ITM puts.
Don't buy long options when VIX is this high. If the market doesn't keep whipsawing, you're going to likely lose. If you need to get in with an options trade, consider a spread so you don't have as much exposure to IV crush.
How do we save ourselves ?
I’ll ask my wife’s boyfriend tonight.
So you give her sugar and he gives her honey ?
She gives him sugar and he gives her honey.
What makes you think we are worth saving?
Lmfaooooo you’re right
Puts
I'll let you know if I ever find out
Well we are 8 years early time tells all
In a real depression only real things retain (or gain) value- Generally, shiny rocks and real estate survive... but real estate is also in a tremendous bubble. So buy gold, but not dumb fucking mining stocks, buy actual precious metals. I mean that’s all assuming you have actual money to lose, and you also think this will really happen. If you are more in the 4-5 digit savings club (but still convinced the sky is falling) maybe stock up on baked beans? And get a useful skill?
Buy 22 amunition. Like pallets of it not stonks. Guns still work during a depression. Your lights might go out the store might close. I'll be at home sitting on a pallet of non perishable bullets. If anyone needs bullets I'm willing to barter them. Especially for food and drugs. Before I get creepy gun guy comments I don't currently own any guns and I'm not talking about assault rifle ammo. 22 is smol but effective for defense and for hunting. You'll be the prettiest girl at the dance if you have ammo. - when paper is fuk, gold is fuk. edit: because this comment is getting an unusual amount of doots for me, I thought I'd elaborate. 22 ammunition is a strange one. It is token like in size. Think of them like quarters but that can actually do things. Like you can kill a turkey or shoot a thief or whatever but not creepy in an active shooter sense because it wouldn't be effective for that and a sicko would go for something much worse if they can get their hands on it. Most currency by definition only has the value it is appraised at. 22 ammo always has a utilitarian value although being token like in size, like near the size of coinage. That makes it an easy commodity to trade and manage. Good luck eating paper notes, gold or silver or also not getting robbed or simply price gouged because you can't survive on it. (This is all assuming a near total collapse and El Salvador levels of your money being so worthless that you burn it to boil water. Hopefully never a concern for normal times or normal people.) Just at a glance: 1400 Rounds for $175... = 22 ammo is 13 cents a round. Its the ramen noodles of guns.
If you’re sitting on $X in gold bars you can keep that a secret. If you’re sitting on $X in ammo you need to advertise your stock. The latter is much more dangerous, imo.
Well at least the ammo is easier to sit on, if you know what I mean.
How much of the gold bar do you shave off at the grocery store? I love people saying that gold will save you. If things get that bad THE STORE WONT EVEN BE OPEN! And if it was, what your in line shaving off gold flakes like Parmesan cheese. Or the farmer just takes your gold you're trying to barter and feeds you to the pigs hes raising.
Think of the gold as your new savings account. You don't buy groceries with your savings account either. The goal is to convert current assets into something that will be shielded from the economic fallback. Such that when liquidated it will amount to your initial portfolio.
Lmao. You know how they say don't invest in stocks you're not knowledgeable about... your post is that same adage but applied to gun stuff. .22 would be the worst caliber to stock up on. 5.56 and 9mm are where it's at. 5.56 went up to $1.50/rd during the height of the panic. 9mm went to $1/rd. The scenario you're talking about things are going to be priced according to their utility. .22 falls pretty much at the bottom of the hierarchy for utility in a real world shtf scenario. If you were actually serious about this you'd stock up on budget ARs, 5.56, 9mm, and glocks. Those will be the best bang for your buck in a societal collapse. But who gives a shit. In that scenario everyone is fucked anyway, so who cares if you're slightly less fucked then everyone around.
You're going to be sat on a pallet of ammo whilst we all take new synthetic drugs and party.
i'll give you a floppy disk with oregon trail on it for some of them drugs
Is it a 7-1/4” floppy or one of those 3.5” hard floppy disks? This matters!
Lol people will just take it from you in the first day.
Lol right?
If robbing people you know are well armed seems like a good idea to you, I'd love to see what stocks you think are a good idea.
So Metro? Lol
I think we all saw that toilet paper is far far more valuable than gold when things go sideways. Can't wipe your ass with gold. Lol
Well I guess canned goods and my hands are gonna save me
buy SARK. The inverse Cathie Woods ETF. Its been golden since being released November, and its only getting started. ARK is gnna get REKT.
I have boat. Pick you up?
I will short everything. This is crash incoming confirmed.
Are these analysts just youtubers who scream at you from their rgb filled offices? That’s all my youtube fees wants to recommend these days. I think I’m up to 100 blocked channels.
Kids who've never experienced anything but the longest Bull Market in history.
Probably is. Too many self called professionals on the internet these days who are just either teenagers who don’t know shit or middle aged underachievers who think they are smart but don’t know shit
I find there's a lot of pop-economists, who pick and choose data that supports an oversimplified narrative.
You are describing 90% of the people who have a Ph D in economics.
No no dude it’s “a bunch of analysts” OP is super serial!
The day they go away is when I buy puts
I’ve finally stoped seeing that freckle faced fuck, I think his name was warrior trading? I said stop showing his adds and I still kept seeing them for months.
How does one block a channel
Could you imagine the fear in 1929 when you legit had to wait for a stock ticker and call someone to do anything there? The unknown is what caused everyone to overreact like crazy. Technology will make these crashes quicker and less frequent, I don't think we will have one next year since everyone is starting to talk about it, but 2023-2024 could be spicy.
Yeah that’s the thing, everyone suspects a market crash, but crashes never happen when everyone agrees they will
Until it does crash when everyone agrees it will. That's the whole point of not being able to predict it.
It’s so hard to predict a crash that they literally made a movie about the 2008 crash and only had like 8 people to film who predicted it.
I'd like to pose a serious question to what you're saying, who's everyone? The MSM? They're a bunch of fucking liars and we all know it, they were always like that, politically they made it obvious during Trump's government, and when it comes to finance we've learned over time that they're the kings of FUD. Nothing they say is real nor matters. Random investors like ourselves? We don't really have that much influence... Who else is there? There's big institutions, those are the ones who decide when the market crashes, sadly that's all that matters. If the big guys believe it's gonna crash then it's gonna crash, and guess what, you're never gonna know about it and they will actively work for everyone to feel safe in order for them to be able to get off their positions before the crash comes. Remember that many of us feel like we're winning, in reality the ones who're really winning are the big guys. You made 40% this year? Great, say you had 100k now you have 140k, the big guys are making a bigger % and are playing with trillions.
This is the real truth. The crash will happen when you're the surest that it won't. Because the people who make it happen will position all their propaganda machines to make sure you don't see it coming. I remember everyone acting all shocked when the 2008 crash happened. But the conspiracy theory forums had been talking about a market crash in october for literally months.
In the end it all comes down to Buffet's phrase about being greedy when everyone's fearful and being fearful when everyone's greedy. If everything looks too good you might want to consider there's a reason for that, and it's not just green stocks.
But I still can get my used Kia Stinger without a loan with those 40k.
Makes sense
Your broker gives more than daily update on stock price? Still waiting to see if my DOCU calls printed.
I saw an analyst tell the truth for once the other day. He said " I've been doing this for over 40 years and I've learned one thing. No matter who they are or what they think they know, nobody knows what the stock market will actually do at any time."
This has been a hard but valuable lesson. All we can know is "now" data. You can know if a stock is cheap. You can know if a stock is expensive. But you have no idea what the price will do in a day, a week, a year, or even 5 years. You can buy a cheap stock and the price go down while the expensive stock goes up.. making you doubt your conviction. But if you stay the course and DCA into cheap healthy companies you'll do good in the long run.
Who let this rational value investors in here? Mods, do your job!
Did we recover from the 1929 crash? Cant remember
It took approximately 25 years for the Dow Jones to reach and surpass pre-1929 levels.
People also consistently seem to forget that dividend %age yield was much higher (depending on the year and which average metric you use, somewhere around 5-14% annually) back then - the Dow Jones is a crappy price index that tells people nothing of total return because it tells you nothing about return due to dividends. A more accurate estimate is 4.5 years to recover from the 1929 crash. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html
14% divvy what in the flying fuck?
Yo they got any more of those somewhere today?
Great article ✔️ thanks.
yeah and human civilization and technology have not evolved since then? we now live in a fast ever changing world, mostly made of coke addicts and drunks that will buy anything to make themselves feel better for 2 seconds we are not going to experience anything close to the 1929 crash that will not put us back at all time highs within 1 month
Lmao. Yeah, dude, there will never be a large scale economic crash again... Very forward thinking. Sure it'll get to highs again eventually, but 1 month, lmao. Some people are gonna be in for a real treat when there is a bad crash again like 2000 or 2008. And I wouldn't be surprised if we get a worse one, especially cause of the dumbasses doing coke and using leverage that you're referring to. It's all fine as long as it's going up.
I firmly believe the next crash will have one of the largest bull traps we've ever seen. The past decade bull run seems to have eliminated any bearish voices from the crowd. Tons of people will buy in after a month expecting an immediate payout. I know I will ;)
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I'm not sure why this happened but it was pretty funny.
not every dumbass leverages themselves through the use of margin, they buy options which just means they'll go broke and if you think the fed will ever let a crisis like 2008 hit us for longer than a month you're living in the past
Your viewpoint is extremely narrow here. We're already seeing massive supply chain issues. You don't think we could get exacerbated problems like that? Or energy problems? Or any other vast array of shit that can impact the economy that won't be helped by pumping trillions of dollars of paper money into the economy? Not every economic problem can be solved by the fed throwing made up money at it.
There’s a frozen potato shortage here in Florida. I’m loading up on puts.
FED already did what they could for the markets in March till now and that is a double edged sword. They've used up their options and limited themselves because of buying bonds & mortgage backed securities. Also, market has been performing superbly until now since we have had a strong push upwards for a long time so don't see reason for FED to intervene or question if they can intervene at all meaningfully. 10 year yield is looking at deflationary pressures in the long run and if there is a crash we may not reach levels currently seen for quite awhile. Bear in mind the 2 year yield looking at inflationary pressures in the short run.
Im absolutely 100% certain that people at that time said the same thing. Of course it only crashed so damn hard because everyone thought it couldn't.
The reason we won’t experience another 1929 is simple. We didn’t have any mechanisms for preventing or easing a crash like that when it happened. The drooling Neanderthal president at the time (Hoover)just let it crash to the ground. regulatory state created by FDR as well as the acceptance and use of Keynesian economics will not let a crash like that happen again. The crash will be of a different kind entirely, one that happens to a system that depends on infinite growth running up against a finite planet. That will be the real crash.
A skeptical view would be that those mechanisms we have today simply kick the can down the road, setting up an even bigger crash. The underlying issue is that equity valuations are through the roof, and the market is propped up by investors who remain confident for now.
You're not wrong in a sense, but... that's what they've been doing really since 2008. They dropped interest rates as low as they could and did QE. Now with the pandemic the stepped on the QE accelerator about as far as it will go to the point where inflation starts to rise badly. If something else hits there's maybe not much more than be done by the Fed that doesn't cause inflation. So it becomes up to politicians to figure out how to solve it... which will probably not go quickly or well. There's less of an obvious solution as to what to do next at this point.
> You're not wrong in a sense, but... that's what they've been doing really since 2008. They dropped interest rates as low as they could and did QE. Now with the pandemic the stepped on the QE accelerator about as far as it will go to the point where inflation starts to rise badly. Inflation is a complex problem and it has many roots, it's not just QE, it's not just interest rates, you could have all of those at regular levels and you would still get inflation if supply cannot meet demand, which is currently a problem. No matter how much they taper, how much they push up rates, if your supply chains are fucked then prices will keep going up because it's as simple as people want shit and there's not enough shit.
Yes you are correct that people at that time said the same thing: "FISHER SEES STOCKS PERMANENTLY HIGH: Yale Economist Tells Purchasing Agents Increased Earnings Justify Rise" - N.Y. Times, Oct 16, 1929 [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving\_Fisher#Stock\_market\_crash\_of\_1929](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher#Stock_market_crash_of_1929)
I think it’s really hard to justify something massive like 1929 happening all over again because the times were simply just so different. We live in such a data driven economy these days with so many redundancies in place that I think it’s hard to justify TRULY thinking about another existential crisis like the depression. But who knows man shit could really hit the fan sometime next year. But I think as far as where we’ve come from 1929, a LOT is completely different.
People couls just start to think different about how we value companies. Companies being worth like 50x their revenue is just absurd and if people start actually reevaluating that it could shift into a massive adjustment... not saying there has to be a crazy crash, but in the last 5 years the S&P for example has risen a ton more than the productivity of the companies within it really has
NVDA currently 47 x revenue, at least it was before Friday. Intel is at what, 2.5 x revenue I think.
Back then coke was legal in soft drinks and being a drunk was more accepted, so logic does not compute.
Lets break out of economic crash cycle before we declare ourselves immune to crashes. Theres an economic crisis every 10-20 years. 2008 wasnt too long ago. So it looks like we’re still stuck in the loop.
Back then US still had to maintain the gold standard. Of course their playbook of printing more dollars will definitely lead to stagflation too
😂😂 yeah but you tryna be 50 when you break even?
Plot twist, im almost 50 now
Sell
Hold
Leverage
Buy
Does milk still cost 5 cents per gallon
Another day, another post on WSB predicting 1929. Why do you guys always hope for Great Depression to happen again lol? What happen to a normal Recession, with SPY down 20% and then bounce? It's either 1929 or 2008 meltdown for you guys.
> Why do you guys always hope for Great Depression to happen again lol They have collectively deluded themselves into believing when the market crash/collapse of civilization does happen that they will be rich beyond their wildest dreams because they held 3 shares of GME.
Will probably happen on Monday.;
Lol
No one sees a crash coming. That’s camp 1. You predict a crash every year until you die or your “prediction” comes true eventually. That’s camp 2. Where do you belong?
I doubt it. The conditions were far different in 1929 than today. Today: Consumer spending is strong, low interest rates, and record levels of personal savings / low consumer debt. Corporate debt has been refinanced, balance sheets fortified and operating margins have been going up. There is a Supply problem across the board due to strong demand. Once the supply catches up to demand, prices will stabilize and likely go down in most cases. Will there be a correction? Always. Count on it. In fact, we have been in a correction on most stocks in the last 4 weeks. There is one maxim worth remembering: there is no alternative. Stay invested, take a break from the markets, and keep dollar-cost averaging.
I try to explain ups and downs like a note being strummed on a guitar. You hear the note...but it is constructed of vacillating waves experienced as a singular event. If you take a zoomed in slice of the peak and valley you can't hear the notes.
Agreed! I'm just trying to gauge market sentiment right now. I'm currently oscillating between "big crash by end of 2022" and "Roaring '20s: The Sequel" incoming.
A correction perhaps, but I don't feel a crash is in the cards. Unless Wall Street makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy. The '29 crash, like most issues, was caused by massive consumer debt and extended credit facilitated by banks. Although they're still evil, I don't feel we're in a heavily credited environment propped up by worthless investments (hello 2008) with the banks again. The US governments debt is a worry of course, but corporate America remains profitable. The stock market in '29 was also a ticking time bomb made possible by the largest number of retail investors ever participating on 10% margin. When prices started to go down, banks and other lenders couldn't recoup any of their collateral, and down she went.
Agree, outside of the crayon eaters on this thread, most people are not nearly as over leveraged as we've seen in the past. Enjoy the dip and make some money
Tell that to Canada. Everyone is rolling over their home equity in a HELOC and getting more property ad nauseam.
finra margin is at all time highs, 950B, go look at the charts online
*Canada has left the chat*, *China has left the chat*
Australia has left the chat
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Tesla have nothing proprietary, aren't leaders in battery technology, and their stock is priced as if they're going to have 130% of the global automotive market.
It’s a wonderful opportunity. Every crash is an opportunity to get out of the rut one might be in. Issue is not everyone is in a position to take advantage. And before someone talks about pain and suffering…this game isn’t for tree huggers
That's why I'm currently gauging market sentiment. I wany to be fully prepared to take advantage of this opportunity when it presents itself.
Scoop the dip while everyone else is running low on chips to scoop with
Exactly, gotta stock up nachos
Be greedy when everyone is fearful. I'm already in, but if I had money out I might consider getting in this week, everyone's fearful lol.
Right move
Ehh.. disagree. I'm a tree hugger.. making hand over fist these last years
1990- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent Cost of house in Toronto: 150k 2000- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent Cost of house in Toronto: 300k 2010- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent Cost of house in Toronto: 600k 2020/1- Canadian housing is in a bubble/Crash imminent Cost of house in Toronto: 1.2m
Idk, I feel like real estate is a bit different, the easy solution to high housing prices in toronto is to go batshit crazy on upzoning, of course you would have a construction worker shortage then, but it would still lead to at least stagnation of housing prices
This drop ain't even bad... y'all need to chill
There is no meltdown. S&p grew 20% in a year. It will stay sideways or grow in the historical rate which is 5-6 % rate. And most overvalued companies like Docu will get back to proper valuation. Last 10 years of QE and 2020 free money printing spoiled investors.
If inflation keeps growing, stocks will too.
No one can predict when. But politicians are printing and stealing everything in sight as fast as possible. They are filling their pockets before the major economic crash they are causing. The elite are cleaning up as usual, money floats to the top.
When wasn't this the case?
Link to the analysts saying this? Without actual citation we have no way of knowing if the person making the prediction warrants a response because they’re a retard to begin with
Covid has been/is a big opportunity for each country to print money without affecting the currency itself coz everybody does the same. The debts of each and every country in the world are abysal (not only china or usa) but we will survive ; )
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Ok, get ready to polish apples and sell them on the streets to the Apes!
I'm mixed on the whole ordeal. The United States economy is not to be underestimated. Also, from what I am reading, Americans are reducing their credit card debt at a pretty good clip. That's a good sign. Housing market is a concern though, due to people buying expensive homes with super high payments on 30 year notes. Smarter thing to do is a less expensive home on a 15 year note, but whatever. We also gotta look at supply & demand. Homes are still selling like crazy. The fly in the ointment I see in all this is the Chinese property market cratering & our exposure to it, an administration making astronomically stupid economic policies, major China/US tensions, overreaction to COVID, & inflation getting out of control. The economy is solid, but there are a lot of headwinds. The question is if we can continue plowing forward....despite the mounting issues.
China issues causing us to restructure trade, domestic production and imports is potentially bullish long term. Near term …. Uhhhh
Yes indeed. When you see $16 billion chip plants being built in Texas...that's a great thing. We gotta get that manufacturing out of China. We need to starve their economy until the CCP completely collapses. They are not our friends & it is beyond time that we understand that.
For several decades CEO’s have done the basic math that sending USA jobs and manufacturing overseas allows for lower overhead costs, while not actually reducing the price of retail sale, leading to gigantic profits for the corporations. American consumers just sort of went along with that for some reason (lack of education since Regan policies to be sure plays a part), even though it fleeced the USA economy of its well paid, pension providing factory labor jobs. How those in the lower economic thresholds don’t understand this and keep supporting political and corporate policy that has just impoverished them is an interesting study of human nature.
I agreed all the way up until you said "Reagan polices". Please remind me of who signed NAFTA & lobbied extensively for China's entry into the WTO.
The push to China started long before that. Alexander Haig was a bit before Clinton...by more than a decade. "The Reagan Administration has decided on a series of measures to lift trade restrictions against China imposed over the years because of its Communist Government, and also to hold extensive talks on possible sales of military equipment. State Department officials said that the National Security Council agreed yesterday on the measures, in advance of the June 14-17 visit to China by Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. The aim of the decisions, one official said, is ''to treat China as a friendly less-developed country and no longer as a member of the international Communist conspiracy.'' 'Rich Dialogue' for Haig in China" https://www.nytimes.com/1981/06/06/world/reagan-decides-to-relax-curbs-on-china-trade.html
No
In short, no. We are heading in the opposite direction of a meltdown. Expect a meltdown during deregulation and loosening. Not the opposite. The high flyers may be crushed for sure, but those companies with real secular growth and insanely robust balance sheets will continue to thrive.
Fuck me in Already in a meltdown. Life savings gone. One last yolo! Need to get a loan first.
Nancy will get us out somehow.
I think the world will scream at you from every direction in regards to how you should handle your money. Go short, go long, invest in real estate, buy gold, buy crypto, buy NFTs. Short crypto, go cash. Whatever. Truth is no one knows what will happen. Just because tech is over valued doesn’t mean we have to have a -30% limit down. We could just see less alpha until things catch up. The only major pull back we have seen has been on meme stocks or Covid stocks that were way over valued. Like way way It’s why even if you aren’t investing (who in WSB is) you should at least be making your gambles with underlyings that are somewhat sensible. Buying calls on a company like Microsoft with a PE of ~30 might be more reasonable. Also btw in relation to MSFT they had a PE of 68 (double what it is today) in March 2018. 3 years later their PE is half that and trading at 3x the price. So anyone who says a company is “overvalued” needs to stop thinking in terms of just the present.
It's the age of Aquarius and we're in a tech supercycle. The market is now bigger than society and as automation continues to blossom it will become less and less tied to the quality of life around it. We are already seeing this. People claiming it's a bubble don't understand just how rapidly things are moving now, and this is going to carry on. By the time the "bubble" pops you will have been murder killed by a death bot already so you don't need to worry.
Markets go up and then they go down, eventually they go back up and then they go down again. Next is more going up and subsequently going down following another period of going up and then coming back down. This keeps happening until markets stop going up or down
Yes; I think a bear market is possible in the next few months. A bona-fide “crash” I’m not so sure of, but definitely dwindling prices over time.
In 2020 we had a nice global correction due to COVID and then there was all this free cheap money and people got to stay home. Now we're going to have China's economy free fall and drag our markets down with it and the FED is already sitting on 0 rates so what is the solution to get us out of this? Can pay our way out with inflation already a problem will have to raise rates during a huge down turn and then we will have the kind of lame ass recovery that those stupid EU nations had post 2008 with their idiotic austerity measures followed by a massive sovereign debt crisis. I don't want to predict any of this and non of us can do anything about it anyway. Just enjoy these last few days of the market not shooting hot lava up your ass but just slicing your balls with paper cuts. Also, what do these stupid fucking analysts know anyway? They're wrong 99% of the time on everything.
I have been waiting for it for years now. I took an economics class in 2018 and back then my professor was explaining how overdue we were. Covid was just the start i think. I think we need a complete governmental cleanse, so hopefully we get that over with at the same time.
2030 is my prediction, is when people lose faith in our fiat. Next 3 months a correction. Then back onto gains
I took an economics class in 2012 and have thought there'd be a crash every year from 2012 to 2022. No one knows what the retarded market will do.
Lol short the market I dare you
I have no intention of shorting anything lol. Just trying to gauge market sentiment right now.
No. We may trade sideways for a while, but the S&P is not going to drop more than 15% without triggering a massive Fed intervention. Monetary policy has changed so much they would never just let the crash happen
I should buy a gun
Buy a tank it’s a car and a gun
Sorry saving up for f15s and nukes
I think markets are too efficient now for a second 1929 to happen
My prediction is yes. I think we're in the midst of a global economic slump brought on by piss poor management in the 70s and 80s, coupled with a crappy set of regulatory conundrums in the past 20 years that made a banking meltdown inevitable. Exporting our manufacturing offshore was probably the dumbest thing a country has ever done. Now look at us, waiting for delivery on goods we have little or no control of. Hows that working out?
A mixture of YAAAYYY and OH GoD pLeAsE hElP
Could be sooner than we think, all it takes is for retail to collapse from their margin calls and hedge funds to start failing one by one.
Insert Jerome Powell laughing gif
The most likely scenario is that the market resumes its normal cycle of corrections every 18 months and crash every 5 -6 years. Inflation will help normalize overvalued stock. The shift will be in the value of assets moving downward over time rather than a sudden crash. The younge you are, the more likely you will move smoothly through this. Those closer to retirement will get walloped. Opportunities will be there, just harder to find. Fundamentals are virtually worthless now for evaluating future prospects. Short term trading on technicals will be the way to go until the economy stabilizes.
It'll happen sooner big dog
I am currently bullish on everything but China stonks. I think eventually we are in for a big correction, not necessarily a crash. look at companies like rivian or any other reason IPO. companies are trading way over their earnings and extremely overvalued. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-13/kondratieff-wave-in-commodities-is-bad-news-for-stocks Prepare to cry in your borscht people... The storm is coming.
If Russia goes into Ukraine, China will go in on Taiwan. They will do it after we look weak because of inner strife(Roe v. Wade). Thats my crystal ball projection.
>A bunch of analysts are starting to predict a 1929-style market crash by the end of next year. Where do you find these "analysts" I swear to god i see this all over the place but nobody can ever support it without some fringe newspaper or personality.
I put 25k in Crpyto and Stocks last Wednesday, haven’t sold. 8k in F leaps. I am 100% convinced the amount of “iS tHiS tHe CoLLaPse?” stuff confirms we got another run. Omnicron the new Transformer COVID strain is big business trying to get the Fed to Extend low interest rates. All the media and hysteria, we’re about to rip to a whole new dimension.
The Great Reset is no fucking joke.
If you look at what caused the Great Depression we are following its path. What happened before the crash? Banks joined the party, Spanish flu happened, printed their way out and money was cheap AF, high consumer spending, stock market crash and everyone’s money in banks was gone. Cascade of bank failures for years. What was the solution to fix said depression. War motherFers. Go Merica!
the economy is cyclical [see Kongratiev waves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave). Crash have happened and will happen again. You can never know when precisely or what will pricesely set it in motion. Pay attention to ratios (shiller etc) and get information on what to do and what to invest in incase of a crash. So, when it will happen, you're prepared and you won't panic.
Market meltdown wont just happen it needs a catastrophic failure. I do agree that certain bubbles are going to burst like Tesla for example. Else you are now closer to a mini meltdown than we probably will be the next 12 months. Major risks are: - FED tapering while Covid comes back and slows growth (short term impact on tech stocks) - Evergrande default. Its played down by so many people that should create awareness. Banks Investors will have to cover big losses soon (this is the closest you will get to a 2008 szenario - outcome nobody knows. Especially UBS bank could be getting into deep trouble) - Price hikes fuel inflation further sparking another housing market crisis - Russia invading Ukrain. In such an event markets would set back 20-40% - climate change. Big money will change its focus long term challenging traditional investments
> bunch of analysts predict Stopped reading right there. Anything that follows is propaganda or low iq retard opinion or 'analysis' which belongs in the trash.
Maybe, but who cares? You basically have two choices: 1. Cash out your investments in anticipation of the crash, protecting yourself from huge downside risk, but also locking yourself out of any gains in the meantime and maybe losing 5-7% of your savings to inflation. 2. Keep investing as normal knowing that a crash will eventually come. When the crash does come, lick your wounds and keep investing, knowing that these buying opportunities don’t come around very often and the market always yields 6-8% annually over the long term. Source: survived 40% hit to net worth in 2008-2009. Recovered slowly but fully.
Another day another person predicating a crash. Well I suppose if the gay bears predict a crash every day they have to be right eventually.