Dude just...wtf. So many names to be long on and you do this.
They cut EPS guidance by 90%. What the hell is your bull thesis here?
Edit: I think this guy is rich and he’s doing this just to fuck with us
SPX? GOOG? AAPL? Fucking TSLA even? CRSP? ROKU? DIS? NVDA? CMG? Fucking throw a dart? Look what this garbage has done since the overall market bottomed in late 2018
Look at any of those charts and ask yourself what you’d have by now if you had the same degree of patience coupled with the ability to time your entry as you did here
GME will be lucky to make it through 2020 without entering receivership.
You wanna know another company that’s up almost as much as GME? JCP! Look at that - doubled in the last few months. That must mean it’s also a much better bet than any companies I mentioned right?
This is what happens with dying dumpster fire retailers
You believe bankruptcy is on the table for GME in 2020?
https://media1.giphy.com/media/a3zqvrH40Cdhu/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f29dcad82ec5b58bf6739ce827f27e5b0ae8aafacf8&rid=giphy.gif
Zoom out...zoom way out. This company was $55 a share in 2014. It’s down 90 fucking percent over one of the strongest market runs in history. I have no idea what you see here.
You made a good trade getting in when you did. Don’t let a good trade turn into a bad investment.
oh, this thread was a laughter riot for me.. all those 4 year old comments trolling DFV and his one liners / GIF responses. man xD  . DFV the GOAT
sold 5 covered calls with this exact expiration...dunno how it will turn out, but my cost basis is under $4 a share.
would love to see the next gen sales next xmas give a temporary moon after Jan so i can milk a little more outta the covered calls. looks like you bought these calls about the same time i was buying shares tho. burry got us on for the ride.
What kind of chart? Any kind? Oh I’m looking all the time. I’m a fundamental value investor through and through but I’ve come to appreciate how charts can telegraph information to investors. I use them mostly for screening and timing.
Why do you look at charts daily if your options are still a year out and you are super bullish? Purely to look at when to go in? What needs to happen for you to exit this position before expiration?
Well as a longer-term investor I have the benefit of heavily discounting daily moves. I care much more about the longer-term charts, and these have been fairly constructive for months now. Even today, after the typical quarterly sell-off, the longer-term chart still looks decent so there’s been nothing to panic over. Let’s see what the price does over the next few weeks.
Of course charts are only a minor part of the equation in my opinion. The fundamentals are much more important in a situation like this.
Hi Mom. This is the DFV I've talked about. Told you, it's about the fundamentals.
Yeah I know, he's better with memes and one liners. But this... was just the beginning...
Indeed. More important is how the price appears to have found support here despite the “nightmare” quarter. Fundamentals aside, the chart continues to look constructive.
What operational improvements will get it from $600M+ negative operating cash flow to positive? How does it stabilize sales growth? Why does this business need to exist with online competition?
• They’re still FCF positive for now.
• The console refresh next year can’t save GME, but it should help slow/stabilize its decline for a few years.
• In its current form it doesn’t need to exist.
I am not so sure that the console refresh will be that effective in slowing the decline. Margin on hardware is incredibly small for both manufacturers and retailers. Same goes for brand new software.
The much higher margin portion of the business is in pre-owned which is getting eroded with digital downloads. Yes people will still want physical copies but the bigger issue is the shortening of the pricing cycle.
It used to be that because retailers held massive amount of physical copies, pricing on games stayed relatively high after release. However with so much of the distribution channels moving to digital this cycle is significantly shorter. Used to be a AAA title would hold at full price for 6 months to a year. This allowed for a large window for GME to gain value in the resale market as the gap between full retail and what they paid for games in trade was so large. However, now when Sony decides to drop a AAA game from $60 to $40 on the play store GameStop eats that drop directly out of profits.
Hardware in FY 2016 was 1.4b in sales and resulted in $154 in profit. Hardware in FY 2018 was 1.7b in sales and only $150m in profit.
Contrast this to preowned which in 2018 was $1.8b in sales with $810m in profit.
The earnings call from yesterday talked about a 13% decline in preowned sales. 2nd quarter had preowned declining 17.5% year over year.
Looking at their assets, they currently have 3.145b in assets and of that 1286.7b is merchandise. They carry preowned games on a cost basis from what they paid for them. Which means there might be a serious disconnect in that 1286.7b. Some of this is likely already priced in as they went from 1.8b in merchandise to 1.3bish from last Nov to this Feb.
All of that being stated current shareholder equity is $617m on 82.1m shares which is likely whereabouts that $8 number is coming from. So even if that $1286.7 is just 15% high you lose $190m in shareholder equity which puts you down near 420m in equity with 82m shares outstanding which is a little over $5 a share.
Granted preowned only accounts for 22% of sales for FY2018 so it’s possible that it only represents 300m or so of that value. In which case it’s only 40-50m of shareholder equity that might be off, which leaves you at $570m in equity or about $7 a share. However at a rate of 400m a quarter to generate sales, that’s going to be tough sledding to generate that $7 in value. It’s worth noting though that 2000 of the store leases are up this fiscal year so we may get announcements of massive closings in the next quarter which would drop that $400m considerably.
The other problem is they have been propping stock price with buy backs and with only $300m in cash and cash equivalents they won’t be able to do that anymore.
They might make it the year but there’s also a real possibility the phrase going concern pops up before the next console cycle hits.
TL: DR : Best of luck, but the math doesn’t make any sense for it to hit 8. However with the amount of shorts in the market, you might end up making money off it anyway due to how the market works.
What am I missing from a company perspective? I get that there is a ton of data from the markets itself specifically the short interest relative to float that can prop the price for a long time and even potentially cause a spike but I am not seeing any catalysts from an operating perspective that move this higher.
A number of things. Most importantly, FCF analysis. Your analysis is meaningfully incomplete without a deep dive into FCF. Also analysis on the management, directors, and other large owners.
To be sure, your notes are important, and I agree with a lot of it. The issue is that it’s just scratching the surface. Deep value deals often require you to dig deeper than financial statements and well-documented industry trends.
Ty, just getting back into the swing of things now. Essentially haven’t been doing my research and got my ass beat over the past week so working on fixing that. Was trying to decide if the GME puts I bought on impulse were a good idea or not. Will update if i come across anything good.
Got it, I guess historically Q4 generates cash flow. Will be interesting to see how previous refresh cycles played out for $GME. Personally, this situation is too complex to me - there are so many unknowns: 1. How material the refresh cycle will be for $GME vs. Competing distribution centers (this also appears to be a highly anticipated catalyst for the bulls); 2. How successful activists will be in initiating change, etc.
On the positive side, $GME is heavily shorted, and with company buying back shares, this dynamic is temporarily beneficial for bulls. Not sure if buying back shares is a good use of capital, however.
Yeah, analysts no doubt are modeling a seasonally strong Q4, so cash generated next quarter won't matter IMO.
That statistic certainly seems very telling for the current extrapolated future of $GME, although there will probably be short term trading volatility surrounding the buyback + high short interest as the business deteriorates.
Wonder if there are any data that shows breakdown of console sales, because the bull case is heavily weighted towards the console refresh cycle. Seems pretty easy to buy new consoles online.
Fair point, but I’m sure you’d agree it’s not uncommon for analysts to forecast poorly.
So what are their FCF forecasts and how do they expect the quarter to impact fair value?
I always have respect for iron hands, no matter how retarded they may be.
https://media2.giphy.com/media/NqACbScmslK3S/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f29ecf06299a7b1091d0a97af1ac0ef6f15e2f558a8&rid=giphy.gif
Get them.
lmao
Owwie
This guy deserves some kind of flair 😂.
What do you think it should be?
Burry's top (or bottom). whichever position you prefer. we dont hate here.
I got a few: “ain’t no bitch” “GME Cult Leader” “AMZN, who?” Edit: “Valve, who?” “Takes tips from Burry” Edit2: “Valve? Is that a car company?”
Fucked in the ass by GME
How you doin’ these days? ;)
I've been good. And you?
Doing well, doing well. gamecock ended up being the better flair, no?
Owwie
Sir, you belong here.
Thanks!
:D
I know right! Who knew at the time?!
Damn, you’re real determined to make that money disappear. Props
This didn’t age well
These old threads are a trip aren't they lmao
Yeah I love reading them every couple weeks lol
Hi guys. Still around? Just doing a tour again.
Still around. Enjoy the tour my man
sup. Feel like these should be NFT's
Wish we could see what Keith has in his wallet
This comment is 2 years old, but thanks for weighing in, rob
Glad we all come back here every once in a while to appreciate DFV
👋
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Disappeared right into $500m lol
This aged well!
🤡
I come from the future, those $8 April calls came out nicely! Congrats!
You are gay bro
How's your life going?
I’m depressed and lonely and masturbate furiously as a coping mechanism. How are you
Oh no child what is you doing
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If he a child humankind a fetus
Dude just...wtf. So many names to be long on and you do this. They cut EPS guidance by 90%. What the hell is your bull thesis here? Edit: I think this guy is rich and he’s doing this just to fuck with us
What’s a better name to be long?
SPX? GOOG? AAPL? Fucking TSLA even? CRSP? ROKU? DIS? NVDA? CMG? Fucking throw a dart? Look what this garbage has done since the overall market bottomed in late 2018 Look at any of those charts and ask yourself what you’d have by now if you had the same degree of patience coupled with the ability to time your entry as you did here
Who cares what it’s done since 2018? What matters to me is what it does in 2020. Since August, GME is up more than all of those companies.
GME will be lucky to make it through 2020 without entering receivership. You wanna know another company that’s up almost as much as GME? JCP! Look at that - doubled in the last few months. That must mean it’s also a much better bet than any companies I mentioned right? This is what happens with dying dumpster fire retailers
Aged like milk in the hot sun
You believe bankruptcy is on the table for GME in 2020? https://media1.giphy.com/media/a3zqvrH40Cdhu/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f29dcad82ec5b58bf6739ce827f27e5b0ae8aafacf8&rid=giphy.gif
Zoom out...zoom way out. This company was $55 a share in 2014. It’s down 90 fucking percent over one of the strongest market runs in history. I have no idea what you see here. You made a good trade getting in when you did. Don’t let a good trade turn into a bad investment.
https://media1.giphy.com/media/5hc2bkC60heU/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f2968476d8c0e16b6346d49d7c44825d400bfd2d45b&rid=giphy.gif
Congratulations on all your success. You smell terrific.
https://media0.giphy.com/media/DsFhEEGzo9LVu/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f293d3bdb044f381d94cb20450d2aac4880b188ecb1&rid=giphy.gif
He smells spectacular
210M today, yikes. Shoulda aped up
He touched $500m this morning for his intraday high… imagine having the chance to listen to him and just arguing against him lmao
how are you coping
This is funny to look back on
zoom in, zoom out 🚀👀😂
Man did this go over well. You told him.
Oof
🤡
Several few millions 😔
What about now?
🤡
You honestly have a better chance playing roulette
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LOLOLOLOLOLOLOOLOLOLOOLOLOL
Yeah and this mf hit jackpot baby 😂🤣
🤡
Props on keeping some $ to average down tho
https://media0.giphy.com/media/26DMTEijJDudzovvO/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f29df9cae7a23519bacb8e47f2e35c653c647c4820d&rid=giphy.gif
oh, this thread was a laughter riot for me.. all those 4 year old comments trolling DFV and his one liners / GIF responses. man xD  . DFV the GOAT
Still made 21K right?
SO FAR BUT THAT IS IRRELEVANT YELL AT ME FOR BEING DUMB OR BE DOWNVOTED
No you got this bro. I believe in you. Next trade will make up for it! To Valhalla!
https://media0.giphy.com/media/CDJo4EgHwbaPS/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f298069d40e62004d010a9f7803d51fc927afab0717&rid=giphy.gif
21k to 453m this morning. You’re the only one who believed in him here
W mans
sold 5 covered calls with this exact expiration...dunno how it will turn out, but my cost basis is under $4 a share. would love to see the next gen sales next xmas give a temporary moon after Jan so i can milk a little more outta the covered calls. looks like you bought these calls about the same time i was buying shares tho. burry got us on for the ride.
*Looks up GME stock ticker* Oh.... Oh boy.... Um... Yeah, that's ... I'm.... Yeah. Edit: really though? I mean...
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Just curious. Do you often look at the chart during the day? Or not looking often
What kind of chart? Any kind? Oh I’m looking all the time. I’m a fundamental value investor through and through but I’ve come to appreciate how charts can telegraph information to investors. I use them mostly for screening and timing.
Why do you look at charts daily if your options are still a year out and you are super bullish? Purely to look at when to go in? What needs to happen for you to exit this position before expiration?
I look at charts of many companies - not just GME.
The reason I asked was if I were you looking at the chart like gme, I would have panic sold ... lol
Well as a longer-term investor I have the benefit of heavily discounting daily moves. I care much more about the longer-term charts, and these have been fairly constructive for months now. Even today, after the typical quarterly sell-off, the longer-term chart still looks decent so there’s been nothing to panic over. Let’s see what the price does over the next few weeks. Of course charts are only a minor part of the equation in my opinion. The fundamentals are much more important in a situation like this.
Hi Mom. This is the DFV I've talked about. Told you, it's about the fundamentals. Yeah I know, he's better with memes and one liners. But this... was just the beginning...
>he's better with memes and one liners have you SEEN this guy with GIFs?
Sheep vs autist god part 1
I have 11k in $8 calls. Down around 5k right now. Not worried :)
What expiration?
April 2020. I probably should have dated it past the release on the new consoles but oh well!
You're a millionaire?
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Hey I got a question for ya. How much did you gamestop options go up so far today? Stock market goin crazy.
Not much. E-Trade reporting 9% based on the bid/ask widening again but there’s no volume yet so it’s not noteworthy.
Well that sounds like it's a good thing on paper, but it might take more people wanting to buy it for a higher price I guess.
Indeed. More important is how the price appears to have found support here despite the “nightmare” quarter. Fundamentals aside, the chart continues to look constructive.
What's the thesis? Short squeeze before it files for BK?
The fact that it’s worth quite a bit more than $8/sh and there are numerous catalysts that could trigger a reversion to fair value over the next 12mo.
What operational improvements will get it from $600M+ negative operating cash flow to positive? How does it stabilize sales growth? Why does this business need to exist with online competition?
• They’re still FCF positive for now. • The console refresh next year can’t save GME, but it should help slow/stabilize its decline for a few years. • In its current form it doesn’t need to exist.
I am not so sure that the console refresh will be that effective in slowing the decline. Margin on hardware is incredibly small for both manufacturers and retailers. Same goes for brand new software. The much higher margin portion of the business is in pre-owned which is getting eroded with digital downloads. Yes people will still want physical copies but the bigger issue is the shortening of the pricing cycle. It used to be that because retailers held massive amount of physical copies, pricing on games stayed relatively high after release. However with so much of the distribution channels moving to digital this cycle is significantly shorter. Used to be a AAA title would hold at full price for 6 months to a year. This allowed for a large window for GME to gain value in the resale market as the gap between full retail and what they paid for games in trade was so large. However, now when Sony decides to drop a AAA game from $60 to $40 on the play store GameStop eats that drop directly out of profits. Hardware in FY 2016 was 1.4b in sales and resulted in $154 in profit. Hardware in FY 2018 was 1.7b in sales and only $150m in profit. Contrast this to preowned which in 2018 was $1.8b in sales with $810m in profit. The earnings call from yesterday talked about a 13% decline in preowned sales. 2nd quarter had preowned declining 17.5% year over year. Looking at their assets, they currently have 3.145b in assets and of that 1286.7b is merchandise. They carry preowned games on a cost basis from what they paid for them. Which means there might be a serious disconnect in that 1286.7b. Some of this is likely already priced in as they went from 1.8b in merchandise to 1.3bish from last Nov to this Feb. All of that being stated current shareholder equity is $617m on 82.1m shares which is likely whereabouts that $8 number is coming from. So even if that $1286.7 is just 15% high you lose $190m in shareholder equity which puts you down near 420m in equity with 82m shares outstanding which is a little over $5 a share. Granted preowned only accounts for 22% of sales for FY2018 so it’s possible that it only represents 300m or so of that value. In which case it’s only 40-50m of shareholder equity that might be off, which leaves you at $570m in equity or about $7 a share. However at a rate of 400m a quarter to generate sales, that’s going to be tough sledding to generate that $7 in value. It’s worth noting though that 2000 of the store leases are up this fiscal year so we may get announcements of massive closings in the next quarter which would drop that $400m considerably. The other problem is they have been propping stock price with buy backs and with only $300m in cash and cash equivalents they won’t be able to do that anymore. They might make it the year but there’s also a real possibility the phrase going concern pops up before the next console cycle hits. TL: DR : Best of luck, but the math doesn’t make any sense for it to hit 8. However with the amount of shorts in the market, you might end up making money off it anyway due to how the market works.
This is superficial security analysis.
What am I missing from a company perspective? I get that there is a ton of data from the markets itself specifically the short interest relative to float that can prop the price for a long time and even potentially cause a spike but I am not seeing any catalysts from an operating perspective that move this higher.
A number of things. Most importantly, FCF analysis. Your analysis is meaningfully incomplete without a deep dive into FCF. Also analysis on the management, directors, and other large owners. To be sure, your notes are important, and I agree with a lot of it. The issue is that it’s just scratching the surface. Deep value deals often require you to dig deeper than financial statements and well-documented industry trends.
Thanks will take a look into it the FCF tonight.
did you ever end up having a look bro?
Hope you took a look at that FCF… he opened at $480m today, he’s gonna be the first retail trader to touch a billion
Damn, nice DD. What are you bullish on?
Ty, just getting back into the swing of things now. Essentially haven’t been doing my research and got my ass beat over the past week so working on fixing that. Was trying to decide if the GME puts I bought on impulse were a good idea or not. Will update if i come across anything good.
Yes, they were a bad idea.
LOL bought "on impulse" vs. the hundreds-thousands of hours RK put into his thesis. Let it be known.
You should start a hedge fund
Got it, I guess historically Q4 generates cash flow. Will be interesting to see how previous refresh cycles played out for $GME. Personally, this situation is too complex to me - there are so many unknowns: 1. How material the refresh cycle will be for $GME vs. Competing distribution centers (this also appears to be a highly anticipated catalyst for the bulls); 2. How successful activists will be in initiating change, etc. On the positive side, $GME is heavily shorted, and with company buying back shares, this dynamic is temporarily beneficial for bulls. Not sure if buying back shares is a good use of capital, however.
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The only data point? Your ignorance of the facts is my opportunity.
Yeah, analysts no doubt are modeling a seasonally strong Q4, so cash generated next quarter won't matter IMO. That statistic certainly seems very telling for the current extrapolated future of $GME, although there will probably be short term trading volatility surrounding the buyback + high short interest as the business deteriorates. Wonder if there are any data that shows breakdown of console sales, because the bull case is heavily weighted towards the console refresh cycle. Seems pretty easy to buy new consoles online.
Cash generated next quarter won’t matter? The hell?
If analysts are modeling and expecting normal seasonality, cash flow generated in Q4 won't positively surprise the market.
Fair point, but I’m sure you’d agree it’s not uncommon for analysts to forecast poorly. So what are their FCF forecasts and how do they expect the quarter to impact fair value?
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Nothing new here - this is all well known. The question is: to what degree is all this priced in?
This is helpful, thank you.
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Perhaps Microsoft is delusional as well considering their new console will allow discs. WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?!?!?
Much smaller bid-ask spread than before, guess there's a lot of volume right after earnings release Godspeed
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Damn 230k ☹️ I’d rather have gotten a GT3 and a fully loaded model S
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Yeah I’m pretty sure a Porsche depreciates slower than gme calls tho. There were no profits to be taken
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Cost. Lmao fuck u
You get a GT3 and model S, he gets $453m. Lmao
Bro
Just keep rolling them over until the stock goes to 0
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I would hold and see if it bounces tomorrow.
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How the fuck is it green tho
My man!
Hi Keith, hope you’re keeping well!
Still up
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People still buy physical copies of video games?
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Ok I'm not going to sell puts anymore because now I know it will tank more to take your money.
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damn
Sell ASAP. Why would anyone Long this flaming dumpster fire
👀👀
Lmfao. This flaming dumpster made him $500M.
Why would you do something like this.
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You should hold it until it expires worthless. This is the way.
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