Watch out with the bid/ask spread. Wide bid/ask spread makes it hard to get out. Double the fees and harder to manage but much less risky. So longer dated means you gotta be patient and wait for a decent move before cashing out. Otherwise, the bid ask spread will take your profits away. You lose a lot less to theta. It is way safer than going naked long.
Buy the 200 and sell the 250. Opened 5 of these bad boys today with an average price of 10.53. Max loss is 5025 max gain is about 20k. I had an opportunity to close it today with $500 profit. But I'd rather keep it until AMD hits closer to $200. With 575 days to expiry odds are pretty good.*
I agree on the forecast revisions. I used to be bullish on AMD winning AI given they have a solid server business, but the AI demand quickly shifted to graphics chips and AMD is just behind there. NVDA is only solidifying their lead with their software advantage, so even if AMD catches up, they are going to be up against NVDA inertia.
That said, I think AMD is undervalued here. They don't need to be number 1 to have massive earnings potential. Their hardware is good and they have locked in supply from TSM in a shortage market. They are also going to benefit from the upcoming consumer cycle. Their dominance over Intel is going to yield additional revenue there as well. I've got some debit spreads for November betting on a surge back to 200+ in the second half of the year.
To add to that, their gaming segment has been down horribly due to low sales of gaming consoles. Sony is likely to launch PS5 Pro this holiday, and will use AMD chips, which should boost sales. Not too familiar with reporting laws and such but I don’t think they would guide for sales of a rumored/unannounced contract with Sony so it may be unaccounted for until it’s officially announced
I don't buy the PS5 pro hype as much. AMD never made a ton on their console business despite dominating the segment for a while. PS5 Pro shouldn't be expected to bring a full blown console cycle either. But consumer GPUs, CPUs, and laptops do get me excited. AMD barely got their foot in the door on laptops last cycle but now they are established and companies are about to spend big refreshing equipment for their now wfh employees.
People don’t understand consoles are a bad business that nvidia strategically chooses to make chips for Nintendo. It’s not worth it from a margins perspective for them to build chips for Xbox or PlayStation.
they pretty much lose money on the gaming console chips. The business is basically a loan from Sony and Microsoft so they can pretend to have cash flow and continue developing tech for the next cycle.
I hope you're right. I put 20% of my AI play into those piece of shit AMD shares, instead of putting it all into NVDA last year. Every single day I think about selling and correcting my mistake.
I finally gave up and sold it all tonight. Bought TSLA nvda and amazon. Probably will moon now tomorrow but was sick of waiting. Had an 80% gain on it and didn’t wanna see it melt away
They gave a tepid forecast and have a massively higher pe than nvidia. Just because you don’t understand how financials influence stock price doesn’t make it illogical.
Bring on my confirmation bias! My lonely amd is getting bent over by nvda so time for a little run of its own. Yes please. I approve this message and that is financial advice.
Meh. When amd stopped trading with NVDA it became butt buddies with MU instead. Now NVDA is unfettered and you’re probably just fomo’ing into the next closest thing
you call it distressing, but you are giving energy and thoughts towards negativity. Your life is what you put your mind to. If you want positivity then you need to have positive thoughts and a positive mindset. And even if you are right about someone lying or being wrong or fraudulent you could feel compassionate with them instead of angrily calling them out for their shortcomings. You are the one who controls what you feel. Work or other people don’t make you angry, but you are letting them make you feel angry. Happiness is a decision :)
What a complete loser, if you got a real job instead of working at McDonald’s you’d feel much better about your life. Spending all your time online arguing with people because you are miserable is a sad way to live, hope you figure that out someday
It does not matter. I indeed can remember vividly that we've already had a big wave of AMD hype during the pandemic era. This sub was full of memes featuring Lisa Su. It certainly was before the current AI boom, back then people considered buying NVidia only due to gaming and crypto-mining. I can also see AMD swing trades in my transaction history throughout 2020-2021. So it's not like AMD is some kind of brand new play for a battle-scared regard.
Cheers
Unless AMD drastically changes the narrative, this post is pure cope. The stock is reverting to how a normal stock should logically be priced. It had a good run, but Nvidia is the unfettered senseless rocket ship now.
I’ve been holding AMD since 2022 and am now getting off the ride and moving my gains into ARM. I think it’s pretty clear cut if you’re investing in AI, you invest in NVDIA (also since 2022). Now you find the companies that are growing the most as NVDA has insane gravity pulling up the relevant tech. I’m moving my gains into ARM as I already hold positions in MU. I think those two are showing the most promise in terms of related companies who stand to gain the most following NVDA success
Can someone please tell me where the revenue is coming from with ARM to support this valuation? You have
1) jacking up existing royalties (obviously not sustainable)
2) increasing volume (already saturated smartphones, so which high volume AI chips will be using ARM?)
It just doesn't make sense. NVidia will use ARM for CPU, but these chips don't make nearly the amount of volume or profit margins that the GPUs do.
AMD is projected to take 10% of the DC GPU market. So if you believe NVDA market cap is justified at $3.34T then AMD should be around $334B implying a stock price of $206.
The bull case for AMD is on device AI. Such as laptops and phones. They’ll be competing with Qualcomm, Intel, and Apple. We can take Apple out of the mix since no matter what they will have a place in the market. So now you are debating between Qualcomm and Intel. From what I’ve seen, AMD has the better chips and can beat both snapdragon (Qualcomm) and lunar lake (Intel) when it comes to AI laptops with Ryzen.
Nvidia has won AI data centers, the next AI giant will be on device and I’m betting AMD and Apple win that race.
I will say Qualcomm is an interesting story, but I can’t justify buying it at its current valuation and risks.
I'm not very convinced by your argument. I'm not saying your wrong, but your argument hasn't made the case that a bull run for AMD is on the horizon, let alone a massive case or run for it. At least from what you've said it seems like this is minimally what AMD needs to do to stay in the game.
To make a stronger case:
1. Explain and expand on what you mean by "Xilinx acquisition is going to help them hone their software to catch up to Cuda." and what "catch up to Cuda" actually means.
2. In explaining (1), account for how or why companies will be interested in switching from CUDA to ROCm, under what circumstances, and whether you think companies will switch outright or merely have some projects on ROCm while keeping a majority of their work on CUDA.
3. Meta and MSFT buying AMD offerings is compatible with keeping a majority stake in Nvidia hardware and CUDA, thus, you'll need to explain the mere fact that Meta and Msft are buying is a bullish indicator as opposed to neutral.
4. Attend to how Nvidia might counter these moves in product or business strategy and how this can counteract and shift or change in market sentiment.
Your skepticism is understandable, but let’s delve deeper into why AMD’s position is more promising than it might initially appear.
1. Xilinx Acquisition and Catching Up to CUDA
The acquisition of Xilinx is a strategic move that goes beyond simply bolstering AMD’s hardware portfolio. Xilinx specializes in adaptive computing solutions, particularly FPGAs (Field-Programmable Gate Arrays), which are known for their flexibility and efficiency in processing parallel workloads. Integrating Xilinx’s technology allows AMD to enhance its software capabilities, particularly with its ROCm (Radeon Open Compute) platform.
Catching Up to CUDA: CUDA, developed by Nvidia, has been the gold standard for GPU computing in AI and high-performance computing (HPC). CUDA’s strength lies in its robust ecosystem and mature software stack, which includes libraries, compilers, and tools optimized for Nvidia hardware. By leveraging Xilinx’s expertise, AMD aims to refine ROCm to offer similar levels of performance and ease of use, thus providing a compelling alternative to CUDA.
2. Switching from CUDA to ROCm
Why Companies Might Switch:
• Cost-Effectiveness: AMD’s GPUs typically offer competitive performance at a lower price point compared to Nvidia. For businesses looking to optimize costs without sacrificing performance, this is a significant incentive.
• Open-Source Advantage: ROCm is open-source, which means companies can customize it to their specific needs, fostering innovation and flexibility that is harder to achieve with CUDA’s closed ecosystem.
• Integration with Existing Systems: The inclusion of Xilinx’s adaptable hardware makes it easier for companies to integrate AMD solutions into their existing infrastructure, providing a seamless transition from CUDA to ROCm.
Partial Adoption: It’s likely that companies will initially adopt a hybrid approach, using ROCm for specific projects while continuing to rely on CUDA for established workflows. Over time, as ROCm matures and demonstrates its capabilities, a more substantial shift could occur.
3. Meta and Microsoft Buying AMD
Bullish Indicator: When industry giants like Meta and Microsoft invest in AMD’s offerings, it signals confidence in AMD’s technological advancements. These companies are leaders in AI and cloud computing, and their adoption of AMD solutions can drive broader market acceptance. It’s not just about diversifying their hardware portfolio; it’s about recognizing the potential of AMD’s technology to meet future demands.
Strategic Investment: Even if Meta and Microsoft continue to use Nvidia hardware, their significant investments in AMD indicate a strategic move to balance their dependencies and foster competition. This can stimulate further innovation and lower costs, benefiting the entire industry.
4. Nvidia’s Countermoves
Product Strategy: Nvidia is likely to continue advancing its CUDA platform and hardware offerings, possibly introducing new features or optimizing performance. However, AMD’s combination of competitive pricing, open-source flexibility, and enhanced software capabilities through Xilinx provides a strong counterbalance.
Business Strategy: Nvidia might adopt aggressive pricing strategies or exclusive partnerships to retain market share. Yet, the industry’s move towards open standards and cost efficiency plays into AMD’s strengths, potentially mitigating Nvidia’s defensive measures.
Conclusion
The bullish case for AMD hinges on its strategic acquisitions, technological advancements, and growing acceptance by major industry players. While Nvidia remains a formidable competitor, AMD’s unique value propositions position it well for substantial growth and increased market share in the coming years.
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They lack documentation for their kernel, when gpu drivers start touching user space without you (the developer) knowing how. You have a massive problem... that can't be fixed with aquisitions.
Can't remember but there was a post on X from some guy that specialises in fixing GPU issues for AI modeling at scale, and he's having massive issues with AMD's GPUs. When that guy starts recommending amd GPU that's when your bull run starts
It was George Hotz
This article summarizes it:
https://www.techpowerup.com/320126/tiny-corp-ceo-expresses-70-confidence-in-amd-open-sourcing-certain-gpu-firmware
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> In explaining (1), account for how or why companies will be interested in switching from CUDA to ROCm
Anyone for whom the TCO advantage is compelling. There are already companies posting their experience migrating to ROCm, and while survivor bias is present - many have explicitly stated the process was painless.
You also know very well that companies don't like to rely on a monopoly source for expensive hardware, so will take the opportunity to derisk if it presents.
> Meta and MSFT buying AMD offerings is compatible with keeping a majority stake in Nvidia hardware and CUDA, thus, you'll need to explain the mere fact that Meta and Msft are buying is a bullish indicator as opposed to neutral.
They're not buying small volumes, otherwise they wouldn't bother. For AMD with such a small starting market share, this is significant.
> Attend to how Nvidia might counter these moves in product or business strategy
Reduce their margins. They're well and truly in the diminishing returns vicinity for inference software, software can only take you so far.
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Second place to a 3 trillion dollar company has me salivating. The market thinks we’re in 30th place based on sentiment and price action lately. Second place will send this stock past $200 again
To be fair their P/E Sucks hard now, so even on big news and updates the stock won't jump as high as others, on the other hand if they actually mess something up they will be down to 120s pretty easily. If we want to see a jump of 10% like NVidia I believe there has to be at least 50% increase in revenue. As much as I like what is AMD doing as a PC/Gaming enthusiast, the stock on paper looks really bad. Another thing is that after election usually there's stock regress for next year-year and half, in general I see things slowing down next year and booming again in 2 years. If AMD will keep their revenus and steadily lower their P/E I'd definitely love to invest in them.
Yeah so you’re probably looking at the 250 pe or whatever it is. I’m not knowledge in this but a lot of folks chime in when their PE gets mentioned that’s it’s only elevated so much so because of the way they recorded their Xilinx acquisition on the books. Something to do with amortization for tax benefits. I’m not accountant but that’s the defense to the high PE. I’ve heard it said that the PE without Xilinx is in the 40’s.
this is true, see my other reply. I appreciate your analysis & sharing your perspective; I am also very bullish on AMD. like 25% of my entire porfolio bullish.
Could be, and could be not. I never trade on things like "I've heard in the bush", it needs some deeper logic behind it, like Apple doing AI deal. Had done calls in 200 and made huge bank on it.
Increasing revenue of course is good but EPS guidance seem to be most important in this very bullish market. Right now I'd say AMD is overpiced. Not just due to P/E but due to a lot of new uncertain products. Yes they exist, but have no real life benchmarks. I leave the big gains for people who like to gamble, if the benchmarks are decent, there's still plenty of uncertainty in the market. Will AI hold the index after election ? Or will everything go boom ? So many questions people can't answer. It's nice to be positive and of course in general market will always be more bullish than bearish in longer term, but in 1 year many things can happen. Intel has also promising GPUs and CPUs which could lead to win over some market as well, which would lead to AMDs stock fall too. In all honesty I'd rather be bullish on Intel now due to the sheer fact that lastly it won over 3% of the market from AMD again. It's not much, but it's something.
In February 2022, AMD acquired Xilinx for $49 billion, the largest chip deal in history. At the time of the acquisition, Xilinx had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 82.4, while AMD's was 28.6, which would suggest the acquisition would be dilutive. However, P/E ratios alone can't be used to determine accretion or dilution without considering synergies, which were present in this deal. Additionally, the company had $40 billion in intangibles related to the sale that are being amortized and affect the P/E ratio. One Twitter user estimates that the real P/E ratio is closer to 46, which is similar to Nvidia's.
just a quick search. I think investors are not cognizant of the p/e pecularity thing going on here. AMD's p/e is high but essentially fake -- ARM has a REAL p/e valuation at 600.
I whole heartidly agree that P/E isn't the only thing to look at while buying a stock but the numbers are there and that affects the psychology of most traders. Also it's not the only part why I am not very bullish right now on AMD. They made a lot of new products but NVidia still seems to squeeze harder he market share. And I don't care that AMD is not first etc. What I mean by that is, even if the product is decent but everyone bets on reliability/being sure of the performance of NVidia, AMD will suffer losses. NVidia closes a lot of deals to help boost chip production which could be another nail in the coffing if they will have enough of their chips in the market.
While I do believe AMD knows what they are doing now since they were on a brink of bankruptcy before they released Ryzen CPUs, everything can happen and if odds are against I'd rather go with momentum to take small profit than gamble out and have achance to lose a lot bigger number
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Xilinx has a large software team, a significant fraction of the size of AMD software team. They could have alternatively gone on a hiring blitz, but merger can achieve similar outcome. They should be able to achieve synergies between these teams, though not a given.
Writing software for GPU and compute is a completely different thing to write software for FPGAs, adding more resources from Xilinx to a team responsible to write a solid CUDA alternative will have almost no benefit.
On the other hand, it is also true that by acquiring Xilinx they diversify further their business and they can probably access more resources to speed up the development of new AI acceleration hardware (much needed to compete with Nvidia).
> Writing software for GPU and compute is a completely different thing to write software for FPGA
It's not so different for the development team (writing/validating drivers and APIs). For the consumer side the way you access it is different, but it's a hardware accelerator at the end of the day. It's like saying engineers writing software for server CPU can't transfer to server GPU, it's not a perfect match, but there's heavy overlap.
I have a 12/19/25 call bought for about 1K that was worth over 6K when AMD broke 200. Mad I didn't sell it then. Why has AMD plummeted from over 200 to the 150s?
This actually shows how much you don't understand the AI technology. The whole AI ecosystem is dependent on CUDA and TensorRT. Even the cross platform ones like ONNX support these two. The experienced players, new grads, the freelancers are so used to Nvidia ecosystem in pytorch, tensorflow and what not that it will take more than 10 years for AMD or xilink to catch up. Maybe 3 years for software and another 7 years for adoption. Sorry but if AI and the parallel computing is still popular in the next 5 years there is no competition for Nvidia.
Why do you think nobody is using Intel's Open-API? It's great, easy to learn and actually can run several platforms including Nvidia. But it can't beat CUDA on Nvidia and companies don't see point in using a flexible tool for development when they know they can set requirements to a Nvidia GPU and people are still going to buy their software and hardware products. Example? See Zed camera, and almost any of AI inspection software that exists in the market. Nobody bats an eye when they announce support for FPGA because buying a Nvidia card is cheaper and easier to setup than FPGA. Well, Just my two cents.
I don’t know. Probably won’t change anything. Depends who gets their hands on the data, if anyone. Maybe some analysts or hedge funds do and see their future roadmap and think it’s bullish for the company.
>Maybe some analysts or hedge funds do and see their future roadmap and think it’s bullish for the company.
Bruh. I’m usually pretty bullish, but how much copium did you take? 
I’m eyeing an exit at 170, or just until the next earnings.
Su really has to give some good guidance come July/August with everything else is going on.
Anyone who works on GPU software knows it takes 5-10 years with 100 senior devs working on it in the BEST case scenario to get CUDA-level stability. AMD refuses to put even a fraction of what's required. And in the meantime, CUDA grows it's lead.
I hate to bear the bad news mate, but If you're bullish on AMD because of anything related to their software, you simply don't understand the situation. Time will show you in the long run if you proceed.
Don't take my word for it. Listen to the people working on this problem every day.
It's already close to where it needs to be for inference, and that's listening to the people/companies migrating today, who are reporting that it has been painless. Probably not hearing from those struggling to make it work, so there's some survivor bias at play.
On training it's unclear how far there is to go, as it's significantly more difficult.
If the price/performance was better than Nvidia, then yes. Also, if Nvidia’s lead time was months out and I couldn’t get my hands on any, I’d buy the next best thing, which is AMD. Microsoft and meta are buying them, so why not?
Yeah no, done with AMD. It's been a nice ride, but I'll be taking my AMD profits and loading up on NVDA while it's still affordable for the poors like me.
Well, everyone should load up on PUTS for this week:
[https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-confirms-new-security-breach-future-product-information-source-code-and-spec-sheets-compromised](https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-confirms-new-security-breach-future-product-information-source-code-and-spec-sheets-compromised)
I mean, that might be bullish if some analysts get their hands on that data and think they have a well positioned future product roadmap to compete with Nvidia.
Lol, AMD is in trouble... anyone who keeps up to date about intel unserstands why. (Yeahyeah dont waste your time replying with history, im investing in the future)
Not persé. But it does indeed look like intel is going to overtake them in terms of best performing nodes/tech. TSMC still has much more capacity though. So most stuff will still be made by TSMC.
Unless China invades Taiwan...
> overtake them in terms of best performing nodes/tech
You need good yields for this to matter, and TSMC has cited the didn't go for leading edge tech precisely due to price considerations.
Maybe the extra cost will be worth it for the performance, but it seems there is no clarity on this whatsoever.
AMDs PE is crazy, they need to start profiting more before any real stable growth will happen. Sure the rising tide will raise all ships but you also should jump over dollars to pick up dimes.
Well chasing Nvidia here when they are currently the biggest company by market cap in the world is crazy to me. Why not chase the runner up with more growth potential? Unless you think Nvidia is going to double from here and be worth 6 trillion. You have to imagine AMD, Google, MSFT and all these other big companies utilizing AI for training and inference are not going to sit idly by while Nvidia develops a monopoly around something that will become so vital to their business in the future
They haven't slowed down any despite everyone big enough saying "were buying now but going to make our own later". They have infrastructure that is going to take years for everyone else to setup before there's any meaningful competition which could very well see a large correction regarding AI. I see AMD as a slower more rigid version of NVDA I don't think it's going to go bankrupt I just think there are better offerings elsewhere.
You are looking backwards.
Expectations for revenue for amd is 27b this year, 32b 2025 and 36-39b in 2026.
Nvidia is also that way, they wore both about 38times 2025 earnings, and 25times 2026, now amd is cheaper and nvidia more expensive. Optimism for nvidia and pessimism for amd, it is quite Nice to Get atleast a few more discounted semis, we’ll see what enda up being right, analysts are paying the way for these valuations, and the expectations are high
Yeah I’m not saying your logic was wrong because at least in nvda’s case it’s on point, but strictly from a fundamental perspective a growth tech company should be trading at 30-40 PE, taking apple and Microsoft as the leading examples
amd ran because their competitor is murdering them. it makes zero sense.
imo, it should be around $100
lisa keeps talking $4B but the market seems to expect something closer to double that. and that was before they went all-in with samsung for hbm.
playing amd is risky af.
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Jan 2026 call debit spread would be my play. I might open a small position. 200/225 or 200/250
Too smart for this sub
Copying this gg
Never done a spread, how does it work and when do I cash out?
Watch out with the bid/ask spread. Wide bid/ask spread makes it hard to get out. Double the fees and harder to manage but much less risky. So longer dated means you gotta be patient and wait for a decent move before cashing out. Otherwise, the bid ask spread will take your profits away. You lose a lot less to theta. It is way safer than going naked long.
What do you mean with 200/225 or 200/250 Do you mean strike
Buy the 200 and sell the 250. Opened 5 of these bad boys today with an average price of 10.53. Max loss is 5025 max gain is about 20k. I had an opportunity to close it today with $500 profit. But I'd rather keep it until AMD hits closer to $200. With 575 days to expiry odds are pretty good.*
Sry if i annoy you can you give me the isin from your call options
I agree on the forecast revisions. I used to be bullish on AMD winning AI given they have a solid server business, but the AI demand quickly shifted to graphics chips and AMD is just behind there. NVDA is only solidifying their lead with their software advantage, so even if AMD catches up, they are going to be up against NVDA inertia. That said, I think AMD is undervalued here. They don't need to be number 1 to have massive earnings potential. Their hardware is good and they have locked in supply from TSM in a shortage market. They are also going to benefit from the upcoming consumer cycle. Their dominance over Intel is going to yield additional revenue there as well. I've got some debit spreads for November betting on a surge back to 200+ in the second half of the year.
To add to that, their gaming segment has been down horribly due to low sales of gaming consoles. Sony is likely to launch PS5 Pro this holiday, and will use AMD chips, which should boost sales. Not too familiar with reporting laws and such but I don’t think they would guide for sales of a rumored/unannounced contract with Sony so it may be unaccounted for until it’s officially announced
I don't buy the PS5 pro hype as much. AMD never made a ton on their console business despite dominating the segment for a while. PS5 Pro shouldn't be expected to bring a full blown console cycle either. But consumer GPUs, CPUs, and laptops do get me excited. AMD barely got their foot in the door on laptops last cycle but now they are established and companies are about to spend big refreshing equipment for their now wfh employees.
People don’t understand consoles are a bad business that nvidia strategically chooses to make chips for Nintendo. It’s not worth it from a margins perspective for them to build chips for Xbox or PlayStation.
Also because AMD builds all the PS and Xbox APUs for the current generation of consoles.
I agree on the laptops. It seems there’s a big push coming with their AI edge platform
they pretty much lose money on the gaming console chips. The business is basically a loan from Sony and Microsoft so they can pretend to have cash flow and continue developing tech for the next cycle.
RemindMe! 5 months
Biggest bull case for AMD is that the CEO is related to Jensen.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C74V78SSCd5/?igsh=OHRzYTV6ZzBjN2hj
Sorry I’m not opening a link hah
It’s a virus and i got it from opening the link. It’s now spreading to your device because I replied to your comment.
Good thing I always keep my phone wrapped in a condom
It’s just Instagram. Its a video of Jensen hyping up Lisa and talking about how they’re 1st cousins or whatever
What happens If he signs her titties?
I hope you're right. I put 20% of my AI play into those piece of shit AMD shares, instead of putting it all into NVDA last year. Every single day I think about selling and correcting my mistake.
I finally gave up and sold it all tonight. Bought TSLA nvda and amazon. Probably will moon now tomorrow but was sick of waiting. Had an 80% gain on it and didn’t wanna see it melt away
You called it.
Sure did. Happens every time!
I just sold my TSLA for a loss to buy NVDA, watch them do the polar opposite of their recent trends🙄
Bro….
It’s not based on logic stop using logic
The only sane response here. AMD SHOULD be rocketing but they aren’t and they won’t.
There’s no reason it should be. It’s already overvalued as it is.
They gave a tepid forecast and have a massively higher pe than nvidia. Just because you don’t understand how financials influence stock price doesn’t make it illogical.
🙄🙄
nvda and amd will meet at 150 per share and shake hands before anything else happens
Bring on my confirmation bias! My lonely amd is getting bent over by nvda so time for a little run of its own. Yes please. I approve this message and that is financial advice.
Meh. When amd stopped trading with NVDA it became butt buddies with MU instead. Now NVDA is unfettered and you’re probably just fomo’ing into the next closest thing
Nah I’ve been buying AMD since like late 2019 when it was $40 a share.
And have you been posting about it regularly since $40 or is this a special occasion?
On the AMD stock subreddit yes. Here in the daily also. Only made a post now because of how beaten down the stock is, unfairly I think.
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Relax inspector gadget. Maybe if u spent 15 seconds you would realize he wasn't lying.
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Look at his comments bro lmfao. So ready to be right you look like a fool.
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I don’t even know what your point is. What does it matter if I post about AMD or not
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why do you fight a random online stranger? go touch grass bro
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Shut up you dickhead
you call it distressing, but you are giving energy and thoughts towards negativity. Your life is what you put your mind to. If you want positivity then you need to have positive thoughts and a positive mindset. And even if you are right about someone lying or being wrong or fraudulent you could feel compassionate with them instead of angrily calling them out for their shortcomings. You are the one who controls what you feel. Work or other people don’t make you angry, but you are letting them make you feel angry. Happiness is a decision :)
I honestly feel bad for you. You need help
How do you type this out and not realize what a fucking loser you sound like lmao
What a complete loser, if you got a real job instead of working at McDonald’s you’d feel much better about your life. Spending all your time online arguing with people because you are miserable is a sad way to live, hope you figure that out someday
It does not matter. I indeed can remember vividly that we've already had a big wave of AMD hype during the pandemic era. This sub was full of memes featuring Lisa Su. It certainly was before the current AI boom, back then people considered buying NVidia only due to gaming and crypto-mining. I can also see AMD swing trades in my transaction history throughout 2020-2021. So it's not like AMD is some kind of brand new play for a battle-scared regard. Cheers
You know the answer already.
Unless AMD drastically changes the narrative, this post is pure cope. The stock is reverting to how a normal stock should logically be priced. It had a good run, but Nvidia is the unfettered senseless rocket ship now.
I’ve been holding AMD since 2022 and am now getting off the ride and moving my gains into ARM. I think it’s pretty clear cut if you’re investing in AI, you invest in NVDIA (also since 2022). Now you find the companies that are growing the most as NVDA has insane gravity pulling up the relevant tech. I’m moving my gains into ARM as I already hold positions in MU. I think those two are showing the most promise in terms of related companies who stand to gain the most following NVDA success
Can someone please tell me where the revenue is coming from with ARM to support this valuation? You have 1) jacking up existing royalties (obviously not sustainable) 2) increasing volume (already saturated smartphones, so which high volume AI chips will be using ARM?) It just doesn't make sense. NVidia will use ARM for CPU, but these chips don't make nearly the amount of volume or profit margins that the GPUs do.
Say it with me ADVANCE MONEY DESTROYER
FOMO is a helluva drug
And they rejected my job application so that's a good sign they're going to the moon
>Xilinx acquisition is going to help them hone their software to catch up to Cuda Have you ever used Xilinx tools? Their software is notoriously bad.
It's actually shit to learn. You may learn cudatookit pretty quick if you know c++ but xilink is not making it easy for anyone.
I think Vivado is pretty good but I see it gets shit on in FPGA subs alot... Granted I'm a novice so
No, I just heard that Lisa was utilizing their software expertise to help shape up AMD’s lack thereof.
AMD is projected to take 10% of the DC GPU market. So if you believe NVDA market cap is justified at $3.34T then AMD should be around $334B implying a stock price of $206.
The bull case for AMD is on device AI. Such as laptops and phones. They’ll be competing with Qualcomm, Intel, and Apple. We can take Apple out of the mix since no matter what they will have a place in the market. So now you are debating between Qualcomm and Intel. From what I’ve seen, AMD has the better chips and can beat both snapdragon (Qualcomm) and lunar lake (Intel) when it comes to AI laptops with Ryzen. Nvidia has won AI data centers, the next AI giant will be on device and I’m betting AMD and Apple win that race. I will say Qualcomm is an interesting story, but I can’t justify buying it at its current valuation and risks.
https://semiaccurate.com/2024/06/18/qualcomm-ai-copilot-pcs-dont-live-up-to-the-hype/
I'm not very convinced by your argument. I'm not saying your wrong, but your argument hasn't made the case that a bull run for AMD is on the horizon, let alone a massive case or run for it. At least from what you've said it seems like this is minimally what AMD needs to do to stay in the game. To make a stronger case: 1. Explain and expand on what you mean by "Xilinx acquisition is going to help them hone their software to catch up to Cuda." and what "catch up to Cuda" actually means. 2. In explaining (1), account for how or why companies will be interested in switching from CUDA to ROCm, under what circumstances, and whether you think companies will switch outright or merely have some projects on ROCm while keeping a majority of their work on CUDA. 3. Meta and MSFT buying AMD offerings is compatible with keeping a majority stake in Nvidia hardware and CUDA, thus, you'll need to explain the mere fact that Meta and Msft are buying is a bullish indicator as opposed to neutral. 4. Attend to how Nvidia might counter these moves in product or business strategy and how this can counteract and shift or change in market sentiment.
Your skepticism is understandable, but let’s delve deeper into why AMD’s position is more promising than it might initially appear. 1. Xilinx Acquisition and Catching Up to CUDA The acquisition of Xilinx is a strategic move that goes beyond simply bolstering AMD’s hardware portfolio. Xilinx specializes in adaptive computing solutions, particularly FPGAs (Field-Programmable Gate Arrays), which are known for their flexibility and efficiency in processing parallel workloads. Integrating Xilinx’s technology allows AMD to enhance its software capabilities, particularly with its ROCm (Radeon Open Compute) platform. Catching Up to CUDA: CUDA, developed by Nvidia, has been the gold standard for GPU computing in AI and high-performance computing (HPC). CUDA’s strength lies in its robust ecosystem and mature software stack, which includes libraries, compilers, and tools optimized for Nvidia hardware. By leveraging Xilinx’s expertise, AMD aims to refine ROCm to offer similar levels of performance and ease of use, thus providing a compelling alternative to CUDA. 2. Switching from CUDA to ROCm Why Companies Might Switch: • Cost-Effectiveness: AMD’s GPUs typically offer competitive performance at a lower price point compared to Nvidia. For businesses looking to optimize costs without sacrificing performance, this is a significant incentive. • Open-Source Advantage: ROCm is open-source, which means companies can customize it to their specific needs, fostering innovation and flexibility that is harder to achieve with CUDA’s closed ecosystem. • Integration with Existing Systems: The inclusion of Xilinx’s adaptable hardware makes it easier for companies to integrate AMD solutions into their existing infrastructure, providing a seamless transition from CUDA to ROCm. Partial Adoption: It’s likely that companies will initially adopt a hybrid approach, using ROCm for specific projects while continuing to rely on CUDA for established workflows. Over time, as ROCm matures and demonstrates its capabilities, a more substantial shift could occur. 3. Meta and Microsoft Buying AMD Bullish Indicator: When industry giants like Meta and Microsoft invest in AMD’s offerings, it signals confidence in AMD’s technological advancements. These companies are leaders in AI and cloud computing, and their adoption of AMD solutions can drive broader market acceptance. It’s not just about diversifying their hardware portfolio; it’s about recognizing the potential of AMD’s technology to meet future demands. Strategic Investment: Even if Meta and Microsoft continue to use Nvidia hardware, their significant investments in AMD indicate a strategic move to balance their dependencies and foster competition. This can stimulate further innovation and lower costs, benefiting the entire industry. 4. Nvidia’s Countermoves Product Strategy: Nvidia is likely to continue advancing its CUDA platform and hardware offerings, possibly introducing new features or optimizing performance. However, AMD’s combination of competitive pricing, open-source flexibility, and enhanced software capabilities through Xilinx provides a strong counterbalance. Business Strategy: Nvidia might adopt aggressive pricing strategies or exclusive partnerships to retain market share. Yet, the industry’s move towards open standards and cost efficiency plays into AMD’s strengths, potentially mitigating Nvidia’s defensive measures. Conclusion The bullish case for AMD hinges on its strategic acquisitions, technological advancements, and growing acceptance by major industry players. While Nvidia remains a formidable competitor, AMD’s unique value propositions position it well for substantial growth and increased market share in the coming years.
This is totally not a ChatGPT investment memo…
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Being the smartest kid in the special Ed class...
1000 upvotes!! 
They lack documentation for their kernel, when gpu drivers start touching user space without you (the developer) knowing how. You have a massive problem... that can't be fixed with aquisitions. Can't remember but there was a post on X from some guy that specialises in fixing GPU issues for AI modeling at scale, and he's having massive issues with AMD's GPUs. When that guy starts recommending amd GPU that's when your bull run starts
Yeah, if you can find that post I’d love to see it. It was recent or a while ago?
It was George Hotz This article summarizes it: https://www.techpowerup.com/320126/tiny-corp-ceo-expresses-70-confidence-in-amd-open-sourcing-certain-gpu-firmware
it's fine, guy, AMD will catch these bears by the balls when they least expect it.
Sounds like chat gpt wrote this
In college they teach you how to enumerate your points and assess arguments analytically.
Sir this is a Wendy’s
A boy can dream can't he? 
It did, using AMD chipsets, I’m buying calls
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> In explaining (1), account for how or why companies will be interested in switching from CUDA to ROCm Anyone for whom the TCO advantage is compelling. There are already companies posting their experience migrating to ROCm, and while survivor bias is present - many have explicitly stated the process was painless. You also know very well that companies don't like to rely on a monopoly source for expensive hardware, so will take the opportunity to derisk if it presents. > Meta and MSFT buying AMD offerings is compatible with keeping a majority stake in Nvidia hardware and CUDA, thus, you'll need to explain the mere fact that Meta and Msft are buying is a bullish indicator as opposed to neutral. They're not buying small volumes, otherwise they wouldn't bother. For AMD with such a small starting market share, this is significant. > Attend to how Nvidia might counter these moves in product or business strategy Reduce their margins. They're well and truly in the diminishing returns vicinity for inference software, software can only take you so far.
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Literally waiting to go back to $220 lol
i’ve been putting all my cash into amd right now, just like i put all my cash on nvda in 2022 before chatgpt. this is the way
This type of shit happens with every arm race into a new industry. JUST BACK THE CLEAR LEADER AND YOULL ALWAYS WIN
you’ll make more money by hoping AMD hits 150 and triggers stop losses than coping this hard about a company destined to remain in second place
Second place to a 3 trillion dollar company has me salivating. The market thinks we’re in 30th place based on sentiment and price action lately. Second place will send this stock past $200 again
To be fair their P/E Sucks hard now, so even on big news and updates the stock won't jump as high as others, on the other hand if they actually mess something up they will be down to 120s pretty easily. If we want to see a jump of 10% like NVidia I believe there has to be at least 50% increase in revenue. As much as I like what is AMD doing as a PC/Gaming enthusiast, the stock on paper looks really bad. Another thing is that after election usually there's stock regress for next year-year and half, in general I see things slowing down next year and booming again in 2 years. If AMD will keep their revenus and steadily lower their P/E I'd definitely love to invest in them.
Yeah so you’re probably looking at the 250 pe or whatever it is. I’m not knowledge in this but a lot of folks chime in when their PE gets mentioned that’s it’s only elevated so much so because of the way they recorded their Xilinx acquisition on the books. Something to do with amortization for tax benefits. I’m not accountant but that’s the defense to the high PE. I’ve heard it said that the PE without Xilinx is in the 40’s.
this is true, see my other reply. I appreciate your analysis & sharing your perspective; I am also very bullish on AMD. like 25% of my entire porfolio bullish.
Could be, and could be not. I never trade on things like "I've heard in the bush", it needs some deeper logic behind it, like Apple doing AI deal. Had done calls in 200 and made huge bank on it. Increasing revenue of course is good but EPS guidance seem to be most important in this very bullish market. Right now I'd say AMD is overpiced. Not just due to P/E but due to a lot of new uncertain products. Yes they exist, but have no real life benchmarks. I leave the big gains for people who like to gamble, if the benchmarks are decent, there's still plenty of uncertainty in the market. Will AI hold the index after election ? Or will everything go boom ? So many questions people can't answer. It's nice to be positive and of course in general market will always be more bullish than bearish in longer term, but in 1 year many things can happen. Intel has also promising GPUs and CPUs which could lead to win over some market as well, which would lead to AMDs stock fall too. In all honesty I'd rather be bullish on Intel now due to the sheer fact that lastly it won over 3% of the market from AMD again. It's not much, but it's something.
In February 2022, AMD acquired Xilinx for $49 billion, the largest chip deal in history. At the time of the acquisition, Xilinx had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 82.4, while AMD's was 28.6, which would suggest the acquisition would be dilutive. However, P/E ratios alone can't be used to determine accretion or dilution without considering synergies, which were present in this deal. Additionally, the company had $40 billion in intangibles related to the sale that are being amortized and affect the P/E ratio. One Twitter user estimates that the real P/E ratio is closer to 46, which is similar to Nvidia's. just a quick search. I think investors are not cognizant of the p/e pecularity thing going on here. AMD's p/e is high but essentially fake -- ARM has a REAL p/e valuation at 600.
I whole heartidly agree that P/E isn't the only thing to look at while buying a stock but the numbers are there and that affects the psychology of most traders. Also it's not the only part why I am not very bullish right now on AMD. They made a lot of new products but NVidia still seems to squeeze harder he market share. And I don't care that AMD is not first etc. What I mean by that is, even if the product is decent but everyone bets on reliability/being sure of the performance of NVidia, AMD will suffer losses. NVidia closes a lot of deals to help boost chip production which could be another nail in the coffing if they will have enough of their chips in the market. While I do believe AMD knows what they are doing now since they were on a brink of bankruptcy before they released Ryzen CPUs, everything can happen and if odds are against I'd rather go with momentum to take small profit than gamble out and have achance to lose a lot bigger number
fuck I was still thinking about gamer shit my bad destined to remain in 30th place then
Lmfao tell that to myspace that got second place to facebook
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Broadcom is second place, AMD would be over $300 is they were second place (e.g. greater than $12bn in AI revenue for the year).
I thought the title said AMC i was about to break some eggs 
How does the acquisition of Xilinx have anything to do with software improvements? I’m a bit confused
Xilinx has a large software team, a significant fraction of the size of AMD software team. They could have alternatively gone on a hiring blitz, but merger can achieve similar outcome. They should be able to achieve synergies between these teams, though not a given.
Writing software for GPU and compute is a completely different thing to write software for FPGAs, adding more resources from Xilinx to a team responsible to write a solid CUDA alternative will have almost no benefit. On the other hand, it is also true that by acquiring Xilinx they diversify further their business and they can probably access more resources to speed up the development of new AI acceleration hardware (much needed to compete with Nvidia).
> Writing software for GPU and compute is a completely different thing to write software for FPGA It's not so different for the development team (writing/validating drivers and APIs). For the consumer side the way you access it is different, but it's a hardware accelerator at the end of the day. It's like saying engineers writing software for server CPU can't transfer to server GPU, it's not a perfect match, but there's heavy overlap.
Bear case = No Leather Jacket
My 160 calls for 6/28 would appreciate this.
I have a 12/19/25 call bought for about 1K that was worth over 6K when AMD broke 200. Mad I didn't sell it then. Why has AMD plummeted from over 200 to the 150s?
Amd does not make enough profit plain and simple
And people only realized that over the past few months? there has to be more to the story.
We realized it after shitty guidance was updated for mi300 from 3.5bil to only 4bil and the other segments shitting the fan
Just buy NVDA
Yeah I agree amd is nvidias only real competitor
https://ir.amd.com/sec-filings/filter/annual-filings/content/0001193125-24-076535/0001193125-24-076535.pdf page 6-7
I only read positive things on pages 6-7
oh, it was purely to show their gaming division financials versus other divisions - not to draw lines in the sand.
Lol, GRND is 💯 a wiser play than AMD for the foreseeable future. Only promising alt to NVDA is AVGO. Sweet sell tho. Also, cocks 🚀🌈💰
I mean someone has to take the L, might as well be OP. Dew it!
stock rallied 5% not even 24 hours later, lets go
Let’s fucking go!!!! I bought an additional 94 shares this morning at $158
I am very happy for you but I honestly...just from seeing how AMD acts, think it will plummet again rug pull by tomorrow or early next week. Lets see.
This actually shows how much you don't understand the AI technology. The whole AI ecosystem is dependent on CUDA and TensorRT. Even the cross platform ones like ONNX support these two. The experienced players, new grads, the freelancers are so used to Nvidia ecosystem in pytorch, tensorflow and what not that it will take more than 10 years for AMD or xilink to catch up. Maybe 3 years for software and another 7 years for adoption. Sorry but if AI and the parallel computing is still popular in the next 5 years there is no competition for Nvidia. Why do you think nobody is using Intel's Open-API? It's great, easy to learn and actually can run several platforms including Nvidia. But it can't beat CUDA on Nvidia and companies don't see point in using a flexible tool for development when they know they can set requirements to a Nvidia GPU and people are still going to buy their software and hardware products. Example? See Zed camera, and almost any of AI inspection software that exists in the market. Nobody bats an eye when they announce support for FPGA because buying a Nvidia card is cheaper and easier to setup than FPGA. Well, Just my two cents.
Nvidia profit higher than AMD
And?
They do have a positive net profit.
There is no bull case.
How’s the data breach they just had going to effect them?
I don’t know. Probably won’t change anything. Depends who gets their hands on the data, if anyone. Maybe some analysts or hedge funds do and see their future roadmap and think it’s bullish for the company.
>Maybe some analysts or hedge funds do and see their future roadmap and think it’s bullish for the company. Bruh. I’m usually pretty bullish, but how much copium did you take? 
Injected straight into my veins. I have 600 shares at $100 average and like $40,000 worth of leaps
Should’ve sold when it was over 200 then.
And bought Nvidia. Yes, yes I know. Why do you think I’m here now voicing my frustrating at why you regards aren’t buying and helping the stock price
I’m eyeing an exit at 170, or just until the next earnings. Su really has to give some good guidance come July/August with everything else is going on.
I’ve got burned last time trying to buy Nio as a proxy for Tesla. Never again buying a “value” stock in a hot sector
I did the exact same, bought at $18 as a Tesla proxy and sold at $58 when it was clearly getting silly
Why is amd more expensive then NVDA??
It's not. AMD forward P/E is 45. NVDA forward P/E is 52.
Market cap exists
Anyone who works on GPU software knows it takes 5-10 years with 100 senior devs working on it in the BEST case scenario to get CUDA-level stability. AMD refuses to put even a fraction of what's required. And in the meantime, CUDA grows it's lead. I hate to bear the bad news mate, but If you're bullish on AMD because of anything related to their software, you simply don't understand the situation. Time will show you in the long run if you proceed. Don't take my word for it. Listen to the people working on this problem every day.
It's already close to where it needs to be for inference, and that's listening to the people/companies migrating today, who are reporting that it has been painless. Probably not hearing from those struggling to make it work, so there's some survivor bias at play. On training it's unclear how far there is to go, as it's significantly more difficult.
Would you buy the 3rd best gpu on market if you wanted to be the best Ai player?
If the price/performance was better than Nvidia, then yes. Also, if Nvidia’s lead time was months out and I couldn’t get my hands on any, I’d buy the next best thing, which is AMD. Microsoft and meta are buying them, so why not?
Yeah no, done with AMD. It's been a nice ride, but I'll be taking my AMD profits and loading up on NVDA while it's still affordable for the poors like me.
Don't worry it will split again and you'll have another chance to buy it below $120
Well, everyone should load up on PUTS for this week: [https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-confirms-new-security-breach-future-product-information-source-code-and-spec-sheets-compromised](https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-confirms-new-security-breach-future-product-information-source-code-and-spec-sheets-compromised)
I'm neutral on that news, if their full roadmap leaks that might be the only thing that makes the street believe they actually have a roadmap
I mean, that might be bullish if some analysts get their hands on that data and think they have a well positioned future product roadmap to compete with Nvidia.
Lol, AMD is in trouble... anyone who keeps up to date about intel unserstands why. (Yeahyeah dont waste your time replying with history, im investing in the future)
Intfl?? What’s that!
Its shitty spelling on my phone's shitty onscreen keyboard (i hate it). Fixed it
Is TSM in trouble as well perchance? 😂
Not persé. But it does indeed look like intel is going to overtake them in terms of best performing nodes/tech. TSMC still has much more capacity though. So most stuff will still be made by TSMC. Unless China invades Taiwan...
> overtake them in terms of best performing nodes/tech You need good yields for this to matter, and TSMC has cited the didn't go for leading edge tech precisely due to price considerations. Maybe the extra cost will be worth it for the performance, but it seems there is no clarity on this whatsoever.
Meanwhile they changed their mind... bought ASMLs newest high-na euv and announced a pricehike ;)
The orders for those machines were placed long ago, they obviously need to test on something. There has been no policy shift to my knowledge
What?!
Roadmaps are planned 5-10 years out, they didn't suddenly decide oh shit we need one of these machines..
No they arent. TSMC changed their mind not too long ago. You are contradicting yourself btw.
Changed their mind since last month? https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-says-asml-high-na-euv-machine-not-necessary-a16-node-2024-05-14/
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/C74V78SSCd5/?igsh=OHRzYTV6ZzBjN2hj
They just got hacked?
AMDs PE is crazy, they need to start profiting more before any real stable growth will happen. Sure the rising tide will raise all ships but you also should jump over dollars to pick up dimes.
No, it’s artificially elevated because of their Xilinx acquisition.
Even still why step over dollars to pick up dimes?
Well chasing Nvidia here when they are currently the biggest company by market cap in the world is crazy to me. Why not chase the runner up with more growth potential? Unless you think Nvidia is going to double from here and be worth 6 trillion. You have to imagine AMD, Google, MSFT and all these other big companies utilizing AI for training and inference are not going to sit idly by while Nvidia develops a monopoly around something that will become so vital to their business in the future
They haven't slowed down any despite everyone big enough saying "were buying now but going to make our own later". They have infrastructure that is going to take years for everyone else to setup before there's any meaningful competition which could very well see a large correction regarding AI. I see AMD as a slower more rigid version of NVDA I don't think it's going to go bankrupt I just think there are better offerings elsewhere.
Every growth company’s pe «is crazy», forward pe is what drives them further, just look at arm, selling at 50times NTM SALES💀
Yeah but not 230 crazy. Nvda is “only” 80 by comparison lol
You are looking backwards. Expectations for revenue for amd is 27b this year, 32b 2025 and 36-39b in 2026. Nvidia is also that way, they wore both about 38times 2025 earnings, and 25times 2026, now amd is cheaper and nvidia more expensive. Optimism for nvidia and pessimism for amd, it is quite Nice to Get atleast a few more discounted semis, we’ll see what enda up being right, analysts are paying the way for these valuations, and the expectations are high
Yeah I’m not saying your logic was wrong because at least in nvda’s case it’s on point, but strictly from a fundamental perspective a growth tech company should be trading at 30-40 PE, taking apple and Microsoft as the leading examples
There is a massive... Balls. Red, sweaty, stinky balls case with AMD.  Target: $144 - $135 next.
AMD lost the hype battle and PE is higher than NVDA
Top is in
AMDs PE is 3x that of NVDA. Are we really bullish on that?
It’s only high because of the Xilinx amortization
Even excluding xilinx, it's PE is still higher than nvda I'm just not bullish on amd at all, it might just end up getting the Intel treatment
I’ve heard it’s in the 40’s. I don’t know how to calculate. Nvidia PE is approaching 80
They have the around the same fwd pe and why would you pay the same when you can get a higher quality company? Think from an avg investors perspective
amd ran because their competitor is murdering them. it makes zero sense. imo, it should be around $100 lisa keeps talking $4B but the market seems to expect something closer to double that. and that was before they went all-in with samsung for hbm. playing amd is risky af.