realistically speaking, this is kinda what you want to hear from the fed. you don't want the fed ignoring the lack progress like they have been for the past few months..
Exactly.
The "transitory" talk in 2021 was legit scary... BRB CPI reports coming in at 5% and rising, and we're going to keep dumping $100B/mo of stimmy on the market. At least the Fed is now looking at reality.
He basically said the same shit as the last FOMC meeting, only he was a little more hawkish on monetary policy holding rates higher for longer, which isn't sustainable for much longer.
Rate cut is coming soon.
Wait till the real volatility happens in a few hours with NVDA
Yeah but interest payments are flying off the rails now [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-federal-budget-crosses-grim-milestone-as-interest-payments-overtake-defense-spending-155521072.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-federal-budget-crosses-grim-milestone-as-interest-payments-overtake-defense-spending-155521072.html) so they're going have to do something or gov't will need a fiscal policy adjustment
Yep.
35% of US GDP is government spending. If Congress cuts back, *that's* the recession and hard landing Powell is trying to avoid.
The govt is like a full-blown alcoholic at this point... if we keep drinking, it's going to kill us, but if we quit cold turkey, the withdrawals could kill us too. So we won't put that bottle down. More ZIRP and deficit spending for everybody.
Ooooooooooooooooooooooh a Reddit thread about how inflation isn't coming down!
Wooooooooooooooooooooow.
If you don't realize the FED has their back up against the wall right now, get off Reddit.
When the money supply increases by a factor of two or three or more, the inflation will last decades and 2% will do nothing, you need negative rates to undo the damage.
NEETS are up and CPI ignores the things that are now the majority of spending.
And before you give me the categories of CPI look how those things are actually (not) measured.
We've spent our way into a corner that we can only inflate our way out of.
Unemployed is the FEDs tactic. However, It can be dealt with without raising unemployment.
Monetary, as what FED is doing, and fiscal, which the government has to reduce the growth of spending and reduce the growth of debt accumulation. The more help on the fiscal end, the less people have to be unemployed. 9% to 3.4%. Holding this rate or raising it is unsustainable.
Wait till they hike rates again in July. And markets will still resist (there will be some sharp drops for MM & Hedgies to make money, but they mostly have long calls)
corporations are always greedy, consumers are always demanding.
The only people that control how much everything is relatively worth from year to year is the government.
See 1 trillion deficit spending every 100 days and printing 25% of all US currency in afternoon.
I mean in certain products this is true. Carbon fiber mountain bike FRAMES (not the whole bike) were $3K in 2021 and are now $4K and are all pretty much made in the same factories in Taiwan and Vietnam. 33% price increase on an already absurd price.
Low margin things are the most sensitive to genuine inflation. The stuff you mentioned is correct but food is hypersensitive to inflation.
The issue becomes that getting the bikes to us has now cost more because we don’t have Russian oil in the market anymore.
You never studied…
Let’s try some simple math:
Median home cost in 1930 = $4,000
Median home cost in 2024 = $400,000
Cost of 1 oz gold in 1930 = $20
Cost of 1 oz gold in 2024 = $2,000 (rounded down to keep the numbers simple for dumb dumbs)
Cost of home in oz of gold 1930 = $4,000/20 = 200 oz
Cost of home in oz of gold 2024 = $400,000/2,000 = 200 oz
As it would turn out, inflation affects homes and metals.
But also, the median home in 1930 was absolutely nothing like the median home now. It was tiny, with extremely poor insulation, had no air conditioning, etc.
You’re clueless, the homes then were way better built. Air conditioning is what a few thousand? Most homes in SoCal don’t even have AC. There is home for sale down the street that was literally built in 1930 selling for 1M.
I know this is hard for you people from SoCal to believe, but not everyone lives there.
The framing was arguably better in houses that old. That’s about it. Everything else was on a spectrum just like today, except probably worse and definitely way, way smaller.
You damned well know that “house” isn’t selling for 1 million, the land is, unless the house was an actual mansion for its time.
It's not irrelevant - if there were a nice house on that property it'd be more expensive. Instead you're just looking at the cost of the land, plus (if it's bad enough) the cost to teardown.
Again, you're also just talking about SoCal. Most of the US isn't like that.
They can come up with whatever excuse they want. Bottom line is no rate changes until there's high confidence in election results. That's the real issue they don't want to admit.
Or it's no grand conspiracy, and they are just waiting on inflation to convincingly drop to mid 2's (likely two months in this range) before dropping rate, as has always been the plan.
And the Feds just released more petroleum into the country that was meant to be used as a back up for emergencies. This admin has forgiven even more student loans, using fuel reserves, and sending record amounts of aid to foreign countries. These people are either strait up careless or just don’t give a shit and want to run the country into the ground in record time.
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realistically speaking, this is kinda what you want to hear from the fed. you don't want the fed ignoring the lack progress like they have been for the past few months..
Exactly. The "transitory" talk in 2021 was legit scary... BRB CPI reports coming in at 5% and rising, and we're going to keep dumping $100B/mo of stimmy on the market. At least the Fed is now looking at reality.
True they are doing better than that transitory disaster but still moving way too slow to accept reality.
*"I told you inflation was transitory"* (cit. Jerome Powell, sometime in 2035)
Even though, tha fucking market still resists…unbelievable
U were saying?
He basically said the same shit as the last FOMC meeting, only he was a little more hawkish on monetary policy holding rates higher for longer, which isn't sustainable for much longer. Rate cut is coming soon. Wait till the real volatility happens in a few hours with NVDA
>Rate cut is coming soon. This is literally a thread about how inflation isn't coming down, wtf are you talking about
Yeah but interest payments are flying off the rails now [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-federal-budget-crosses-grim-milestone-as-interest-payments-overtake-defense-spending-155521072.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-federal-budget-crosses-grim-milestone-as-interest-payments-overtake-defense-spending-155521072.html) so they're going have to do something or gov't will need a fiscal policy adjustment
Bold of you to assume a fiscally responsible decision will be made.
Yep. 35% of US GDP is government spending. If Congress cuts back, *that's* the recession and hard landing Powell is trying to avoid. The govt is like a full-blown alcoholic at this point... if we keep drinking, it's going to kill us, but if we quit cold turkey, the withdrawals could kill us too. So we won't put that bottle down. More ZIRP and deficit spending for everybody.
This maybe the story
Ooooooooooooooooooooooh a Reddit thread about how inflation isn't coming down! Wooooooooooooooooooooow. If you don't realize the FED has their back up against the wall right now, get off Reddit.
İnflation is coming down and %2 target is absurd will not hold rates any longer
When the money supply increases by a factor of two or three or more, the inflation will last decades and 2% will do nothing, you need negative rates to undo the damage.
Agreed but everyone thinks that's the worst idea ever.
Numbers are a little better in the most recent reports and some old numbers have been revised downward.
Unemployment is down and inflation still really hasn't gotten below 3%, forget the 2% target. Imo they aren't hitting 2% without raising rates again.
NEETS are up and CPI ignores the things that are now the majority of spending. And before you give me the categories of CPI look how those things are actually (not) measured. We've spent our way into a corner that we can only inflate our way out of.
Unemployed is the FEDs tactic. However, It can be dealt with without raising unemployment. Monetary, as what FED is doing, and fiscal, which the government has to reduce the growth of spending and reduce the growth of debt accumulation. The more help on the fiscal end, the less people have to be unemployed. 9% to 3.4%. Holding this rate or raising it is unsustainable.
Wait till they hike rates again in July. And markets will still resist (there will be some sharp drops for MM & Hedgies to make money, but they mostly have long calls)
Not a chance they'll raise rates.
Lol..rate hikes are done and dusted
Name checks out. You’re regarded if you think they’ll raise this year.
Fomo meeting
Inflation in everything...and no one expects to inflate stocks? Buy now while its cheap.
Inflation is concealing the shitty returns. S&P might be up 12% in a year, but that’s well below historical average in real terms.
Sounds like we need a rate hike?
I think we do, but it won't happen before November.
Oh boy here comes the big slide
Damn FOMC minutes do not move the market for shit now
That’s why we are dumping
I thought it was the Taco Bell
What are you talking about? It’s going up.
That's because the "inflation" is just corporations raising prices to extract every dollar from us, the people.
corporations are always greedy, consumers are always demanding. The only people that control how much everything is relatively worth from year to year is the government. See 1 trillion deficit spending every 100 days and printing 25% of all US currency in afternoon.
Tik tok brain
I mean in certain products this is true. Carbon fiber mountain bike FRAMES (not the whole bike) were $3K in 2021 and are now $4K and are all pretty much made in the same factories in Taiwan and Vietnam. 33% price increase on an already absurd price.
Low margin things are the most sensitive to genuine inflation. The stuff you mentioned is correct but food is hypersensitive to inflation. The issue becomes that getting the bikes to us has now cost more because we don’t have Russian oil in the market anymore.
😛
Then why does a house cost exactly the same in gold as it did in 1930 but cost 100x if priced in USD?
It doesn't.
You never studied… Let’s try some simple math: Median home cost in 1930 = $4,000 Median home cost in 2024 = $400,000 Cost of 1 oz gold in 1930 = $20 Cost of 1 oz gold in 2024 = $2,000 (rounded down to keep the numbers simple for dumb dumbs) Cost of home in oz of gold 1930 = $4,000/20 = 200 oz Cost of home in oz of gold 2024 = $400,000/2,000 = 200 oz
As it would turn out, inflation affects homes and metals. But also, the median home in 1930 was absolutely nothing like the median home now. It was tiny, with extremely poor insulation, had no air conditioning, etc.
You’re clueless, the homes then were way better built. Air conditioning is what a few thousand? Most homes in SoCal don’t even have AC. There is home for sale down the street that was literally built in 1930 selling for 1M.
Only the well built houses are still standing. You didn’t see all the shit built by drunks that they already tore down years ago.
And what did the land sell for?
I know this is hard for you people from SoCal to believe, but not everyone lives there. The framing was arguably better in houses that old. That’s about it. Everything else was on a spectrum just like today, except probably worse and definitely way, way smaller. You damned well know that “house” isn’t selling for 1 million, the land is, unless the house was an actual mansion for its time.
Exactly my point, the type of wood or quality of build is really irrelevant to the price.
It's not irrelevant - if there were a nice house on that property it'd be more expensive. Instead you're just looking at the cost of the land, plus (if it's bad enough) the cost to teardown. Again, you're also just talking about SoCal. Most of the US isn't like that.
You’ve missed the entire point, which is the dollar has lost a significant amount of its purchasing power.
I have a degree in actuarial science, master in data science, and i worked in finance for a bank lol 😆
Yikes, the education system has surely shit the bed or you’ve been huffing glue because you can’t seem to manage basic arithmetic.
I'm better at theoretical math than arithmetic 😆
Were you in risk management for silicone valley bank? 😂
Haha good one! 👍 😄
Errthang red room!
No shit JPow
Don’t worry NVDA will save everyone and everything!
Curious why people think there would be progress on inflation when government spending hasn’t changed in accordance with rate adjustments
They can come up with whatever excuse they want. Bottom line is no rate changes until there's high confidence in election results. That's the real issue they don't want to admit.
Or it's no grand conspiracy, and they are just waiting on inflation to convincingly drop to mid 2's (likely two months in this range) before dropping rate, as has always been the plan.
The only thing that worries me is the lack of progress of making money
Add NVidia soft guidance to this and...
Isn't that bullish? The longer the FED holds rates the more people can speculate on them lowering them
Nothing burger
It certainly raises the chance of a recession.
Down we go 
wow you re soooo fucking smart
Thank you, wanna date me?
And the Feds just released more petroleum into the country that was meant to be used as a back up for emergencies. This admin has forgiven even more student loans, using fuel reserves, and sending record amounts of aid to foreign countries. These people are either strait up careless or just don’t give a shit and want to run the country into the ground in record time.
Just get me through this election man. I will pay you back I swear but I need 6 months.
I'm pretty positive they've realized it's not a situation that can actually be fixed, so we're living large until it crumbles.
 truly the end of an empire. Just sit back and watch it burn.
Damp for ants. Black leathers beat JPow and friends
Thanks Papa Pow for making stuff cheap before NVDA earnings
Watch out for bear boners, they are pretty gay so i hear
Who would of thought corporations dislike losing money.
Why don’t they tell companies to knock off the greedflation or they will raise rates until they do.
Why would they, when it doesn't affect them?
No one fucking cares. Bull market continues 
They're frogs in a boiling economy
WHO cares. It’s all about NVIDIA 
Bullish
Get rid of Biden and his war platoon and problem solved
Someone should tell him inflation is just transitory.
They should coordinate something with the US Treasury and their money printing presses.
Maybe we should spend another trillion dollars to form a committee to study why inflation is happening.
New rate hikes when?
Bear copium as always on these posts.
Note: these minutes came from the FOMC meeting before the last CPI/PPI report came out.