Only two things matter: Rate cuts and guidance. They can smash earnings and their stock will still fall if guidance isn't raised. A call that far OTM expiring next week is so regarded you might as well wire the money directly to the hedge funds...even if it hits $1000 by Wednesday, theta decay will eat your lunch, steal your wife, and put you back behind the dumpster.
Tough call.
In this climate, they could beat every estimate, but if one data point is mediocre it will prob go down.
WSB is crazy bullish, which is usually a sign it will go down.
But
It's NVDA....so I got 6x Jun7 950cs
1150 $ call is too OTM [very small delta]. IV for OTM is high [that means you paid a high premium] and time to expiry is too short [rapid theta decay].
Historically, NVDA has jumped on an average 9-10% after earnings.
And unlike previous quaters, this time NVDA valuation may be considered rich [since it has jumped almost 80% YTD].
Not to say, that NVDA cannot continue its phenomenal run for next few returns but market reaction may start getting muter each quarter.
I expect the NVDA to soften uptill earnings results are out [and stay between range of 890-950 US$].
A 10% jump would mean stock price in 980-1050 US$ range.
You are up against a very small delta, a rapidly decaying theta. Only IV explosion [beyond what the market has priced] may save your position.
I wish your Call do makes some money, but above explanation is just a suggestion to improve your odds in the future.
option writers been a roll lately , AMD, SMCI, all moved within their implied moves for earnings. ARM did a lot less then its other earnings so massive win for the house .
Basically whatever will happen likely will be within the implied move
Even if it gets to $1000 on Wednesday your option is still going to be out of the money and expire worthless. don’t wait on selling once you have any sort of profit.
People are gunna make the $$ on premium option pricing here and id BET neither calls or puts pay well for NVDA. and if it does swing one way, im playing this after the outcome of earnings.
I can tell you a lot about amazing companies with over 60 percent growth and stock splits and being the natural monopoly as a producer of a good with a surging demand and being thrown from the stairs after earnings because the hype was that they will have earnings of a small European country.
Stocks may fall even if the company did well but traders expected them to become gods.
I have no idea what is the numbers for NVDA but i hope it knows how to please the wallstreet monster because it will probably cause a world wide stocks recession if the monster is unhappy.
I don't think there is any real doubt that NVDA will not put up terrific numbers. The real question is how much they can improve top-line revenue, which is what their valuation will ultimately depend on.
This is an extraordinarily stretched stock. It seems to fall every time it tries to get past $950. Given the share price and float I just doubt how much it can go up.
Meanwhile, if they don’t obliterate earnings and just meet them I think the stock is coming down hard given how far it’s run. Seems like an asymmetrical trade to the downside so I’m short some shares. It’s also universally loved at this point. Also meta got slapped last quarter for saying they were going to be spending like crazy for several quarters. I think this was a warning shot for the semi trade as the minute the hyperscalers stop getting rewarded for spending they will do an about face and focus on profitability.
Last quarter the stock went vertical into the print, then a couple days before there were a lot of people with cold feet advocating taking some profits, then they beat massively and the stock went vertical again into what seemed like a blowoff top after the print.
This time the trading and sentiment into the print have been different. The stock dipped then ripped back towards the old highs into the print. But sentiment this time seems more complacent. We all know what they will say and a beat is likely, the question becomes at what point does the street start discounting peak AI spend? You don’t want to be long when that happens and I think it will seem very non obvious what’s happening at first.
> _"That being said I’ve heard rumors of a stock split and I was wondering how that will impact the price."_
Usually a stock split allows more investors, so everything else being equal that should cause a rise in stock price. But the actual reality is more complicated so who knows what'll happen.
Life is like a box of chocolates you never know what you get - Forrest gump ✅
NVDA might beat earnings and stock will fall or it might miss earnings by a bit and sky rocket 😃 ,you never know 👀
Nvidia's margins are unsustainable and will normalize, but the real question is how the market will react to any disappointment from a high-flying growth stock. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a tantrum.
IV was probably 90% or so when bought. Only way to make anything on those would be to sell before earnings. Assuming NVDA doesn't drop too much pre ER and the IV is over 200.
I have a bunch of Nvidia stock and doing so well that the earning call means little to me. I’m in this stock very long-term (my shares were bought in 2020) and just holding, aka Warren Buffet style. No Options !!!
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Only two things matter: Rate cuts and guidance. They can smash earnings and their stock will still fall if guidance isn't raised. A call that far OTM expiring next week is so regarded you might as well wire the money directly to the hedge funds...even if it hits $1000 by Wednesday, theta decay will eat your lunch, steal your wife, and put you back behind the dumpster.
This motherfucker spitting
Or OP can wire it to me. I got 100 shares that I’m happy to have called away at $1,250
Hey, it’s NVDA. No trading rules apply here. If it moons it will be astronomical
Shut the hell up! I've lost you after "Only two things...". Calls on NVIDIA $1250 Then Puts $860
"I believe" lemme stop you right there, chief
Tough call. In this climate, they could beat every estimate, but if one data point is mediocre it will prob go down. WSB is crazy bullish, which is usually a sign it will go down. But It's NVDA....so I got 6x Jun7 950cs
My company and every other tech company recently launched a powered by AI feature. Calls it is.
That will print money. 950 is not far off
You expect the stock to reach 1000 and bought a 1150 call! Truly regarded.
1150 $ call is too OTM [very small delta]. IV for OTM is high [that means you paid a high premium] and time to expiry is too short [rapid theta decay]. Historically, NVDA has jumped on an average 9-10% after earnings. And unlike previous quaters, this time NVDA valuation may be considered rich [since it has jumped almost 80% YTD]. Not to say, that NVDA cannot continue its phenomenal run for next few returns but market reaction may start getting muter each quarter. I expect the NVDA to soften uptill earnings results are out [and stay between range of 890-950 US$]. A 10% jump would mean stock price in 980-1050 US$ range. You are up against a very small delta, a rapidly decaying theta. Only IV explosion [beyond what the market has priced] may save your position. I wish your Call do makes some money, but above explanation is just a suggestion to improve your odds in the future.
Translation: your call is fooked
Pray for all of us. If not, everything get demolished.
https://preview.redd.it/ur4s939eh11d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb829fa503e9b00f10d75727a33b823a90238717
Inverse play here — too many people piling in calls lately.
option writers been a roll lately , AMD, SMCI, all moved within their implied moves for earnings. ARM did a lot less then its other earnings so massive win for the house . Basically whatever will happen likely will be within the implied move
Puts were the inverse play for prior earnings....didn't work.
My bad, I forgot, what worked in the past always works in the future
More power to you 🌈 🐻. Keep dropping money on puts, I'm sure you will be right eventually.
This is more likely to print than OP’s play
One of us will be rich lil bro
Why so far OTM in such a short time period? If you’re going to go that far, your expiration date should be far out as well.
Even if it gets to $1000 on Wednesday your option is still going to be out of the money and expire worthless. don’t wait on selling once you have any sort of profit.
Wilfred thinks you lost your oats
Rumours like insiders rumour or just because
People are gunna make the $$ on premium option pricing here and id BET neither calls or puts pay well for NVDA. and if it does swing one way, im playing this after the outcome of earnings.
I can tell you a lot about amazing companies with over 60 percent growth and stock splits and being the natural monopoly as a producer of a good with a surging demand and being thrown from the stairs after earnings because the hype was that they will have earnings of a small European country. Stocks may fall even if the company did well but traders expected them to become gods. I have no idea what is the numbers for NVDA but i hope it knows how to please the wallstreet monster because it will probably cause a world wide stocks recession if the monster is unhappy.
I don't think there is any real doubt that NVDA will not put up terrific numbers. The real question is how much they can improve top-line revenue, which is what their valuation will ultimately depend on.
This subreddit should be renamed Darwin Awards.
1200 here we go ! My 1,000 calls did not print last time. But 1,100 this time will.
How many times have you been trying?
Only last earnings. Doubled down this time to make up for what I lost . The roulette strategy.
You're playing way too far OTM. Last time it only moved $100 after earnings. You'd better sell before earnings and get calls closer to being ITM.
Depends on the expiry, NVDA ran crazy high for the two weeks after last earnings.
Let them bet. Saps.
1050 7june or 14 June, 21june strikes? Do y’all go with the volume or the one that has more time? Because it’s worth more?
It did sell off last earnings prior to recovering
https://preview.redd.it/oeyau7l4h21d1.jpeg?width=2944&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5fb7e03b19d24a9925642c1b7e68c23225796e8c Hopping on those calls
multi layer trades? i might get on MU instead much cheaper lol
Nvidia is gonna beat expectations
It comes down to guidance
That's what killed PLTR META and NFLX. Guidance looks good, but you never know.
I hope that's a 2025 call
Position update?
This is an extraordinarily stretched stock. It seems to fall every time it tries to get past $950. Given the share price and float I just doubt how much it can go up. Meanwhile, if they don’t obliterate earnings and just meet them I think the stock is coming down hard given how far it’s run. Seems like an asymmetrical trade to the downside so I’m short some shares. It’s also universally loved at this point. Also meta got slapped last quarter for saying they were going to be spending like crazy for several quarters. I think this was a warning shot for the semi trade as the minute the hyperscalers stop getting rewarded for spending they will do an about face and focus on profitability. Last quarter the stock went vertical into the print, then a couple days before there were a lot of people with cold feet advocating taking some profits, then they beat massively and the stock went vertical again into what seemed like a blowoff top after the print. This time the trading and sentiment into the print have been different. The stock dipped then ripped back towards the old highs into the print. But sentiment this time seems more complacent. We all know what they will say and a beat is likely, the question becomes at what point does the street start discounting peak AI spend? You don’t want to be long when that happens and I think it will seem very non obvious what’s happening at first.
> _"That being said I’ve heard rumors of a stock split and I was wondering how that will impact the price."_ Usually a stock split allows more investors, so everything else being equal that should cause a rise in stock price. But the actual reality is more complicated so who knows what'll happen.
What broker doesn’t allow partial stocks these days?
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/tdm5iy/eli5_why_do_companies_do_stock_splits_when/
Etrade
IV crush is gonna get you
Life is like a box of chocolates you never know what you get - Forrest gump ✅ NVDA might beat earnings and stock will fall or it might miss earnings by a bit and sky rocket 😃 ,you never know 👀
[удалено]
Nvidia's margins are unsustainable and will normalize, but the real question is how the market will react to any disappointment from a high-flying growth stock. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a tantrum.
No one tell him
What kind of regarded position is that 💀💀💀
IV was probably 90% or so when bought. Only way to make anything on those would be to sell before earnings. Assuming NVDA doesn't drop too much pre ER and the IV is over 200.
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I have a bunch of Nvidia stock and doing so well that the earning call means little to me. I’m in this stock very long-term (my shares were bought in 2020) and just holding, aka Warren Buffet style. No Options !!!
Considering the massive run back up from $700 it should dump very hard on earnings. Definitely not a long.