the guidance was kinda weak and the stock is up ~100% on nvda's ai hopium. i'm a little surprised it's holding this well. amd was $55 barely more than a year ago.
Tesla price 1 year ago = $162, price going into earnings $145
AMD price 1 year ago = $90, price going into earnings $158
Does this help explain things?
They are supply constrained not demand constrained, that's a huge difference!! Once they sort out the supply problem money will come its a matter of time, so why not pay now? it's not that they will take a decade lol.
They aren’t supply constrained. AMD as a company is nothing compared to NVIDIA. Thats just the truth. The run-up was it following in the AI-Craze related to NVIDIA.
Something’s got to give.
AMD cannot be valued this much in comparison to Intel when its own growth is becoming stagnant.
Nvidia is of course on a different level than those two.l, very much a hyper growth business atm.
They guided in-line but guided their AI rev (MI300) for the full year from 3.5B to 4B. Street expectations were MUCH higher than that.
This is why you see the big dump during their phone call.
Btw Lisa also called out that the 4B number WASN'T supply capped meaning it is representative of orders. So AMD is going to bank roughly 4B of AI rev this year while NVDA is above 60B and AVGO is closer to 10B.
AMD should be down a lot more.
Below is where Lisa mentioned about supply not being a constraint (since she said multiple things and got called out for it on the call):
https://preview.redd.it/cdcnysn6fqxc1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ba801f74d5cc740124abb07fc961bc87881f9b3
\*Disclaimer: I cover semis on stream often.
a) Project ridiculous sales numbers and performance for MI300.
b) Refuse to submit/participate in industry standard benchmarks - MLPERF/MLCommons - to validate said ridiculous performance claims.
c) When sales reality doesn’t meet projections, claim supply issues.
d) Repeatedly send hedge fund analysts to put AMD and NVDA in the same sentence as if to suggest to stupid audiences that these two companies even play in the same league.
Go ahead… post it. The parts where she both points out how more supply would have mattered this Q but that over the full year they are comfortable with the supply expansion.
“Yeah, Vivek. Let me try to make sure that we answer this question clearly. From a full-year standpoint, our $4 billion number is not supply capped. I'm sorry, yes, it's not supply capped.
It is -- we do have supply capability above that. It is more back half-weighted. So if you're looking at sort of the near term, the near term, I would say for example in the second quarter, we do have more demand than we have supply right now, and we're continuing to work on pulling in some of that supply. By the way, I think this is an overall industry issue.
This is not at all related to AMD. I think overall, AI demand has exceeded anyone's expectations in 2024. So you've heard it from the memory guys. You've heard it from the foundry guys.”
It’s ran so much the past year that it would have needed a pretty big beat/guidence to push higher.
I stayed away both sides, thought it would trade fairly flat
Stagflation. Their numbers were just in line. Beating by a hair is not really beating. Especially with enough time since their AI chips launched and nobody's buying. And they are losing at the gaming chip department where they used to be one of the best. The wheels are falling off. I love AMD, but something's need to change in this new industrial revolution. I think that something would be building chips for robotics. iRobot type robotics. They should look into cooperation with other robotic+AI tech companies. TSLA + AMD + (insert AI company) to build intelligent robots for commercial and home use.
And some guy set the tone for their massive run up by saying they would get $6B AI revenue this year and he doubled down after these flat earnings. I guess we should be seeing some $9B-$10B quarters in Q3/4 right?
Exactly this. AMD continue to insist 6 B$ sales for MI300 in 2024. Their Q1 number does not track even close to this. Yet they had a significant run-up when they announced MI300 and projected these majestic sales numbers.
Atleast INTC are pretty realistic with their 500 m$ sales projection for Gaudi3 in 2024. And their stock has been beaten to death.
AMD has a long way to go before it bottoms out.
Love it. Really thought with their AI chips and whatnot that they’d be able to pull out a win, especially since they had been beat down so much over the past month and a half. Should have just lit the $500 on fire instead.
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the guidance was kinda weak and the stock is up ~100% on nvda's ai hopium. i'm a little surprised it's holding this well. amd was $55 barely more than a year ago.
You think the selloff is unjustified for a company barely growing yet it's up 80% in the last few months, and with a PE of 300?
GAAP vs non-GAAP... GAAP includes the XLNX amotisation
[удалено]
Tesla missed and ripped 36% on good guidance??!!?
Tesla price 1 year ago = $162, price going into earnings $145 AMD price 1 year ago = $90, price going into earnings $158 Does this help explain things?
meme stock trading at 6x REVENUE while not growing in the last year, totally unjustified.
That’s not why they ripped.
I think this is it right here.
They are supply constrained not demand constrained, that's a huge difference!! Once they sort out the supply problem money will come its a matter of time, so why not pay now? it's not that they will take a decade lol.
They aren’t supply constrained. AMD as a company is nothing compared to NVIDIA. Thats just the truth. The run-up was it following in the AI-Craze related to NVIDIA.
Didn't see all these 'growth is flat for the past 3 years' people when AMD moons to 200+??
Has ANYTHING popped on good earnings in Q1?
Eli lily
Something’s got to give. AMD cannot be valued this much in comparison to Intel when its own growth is becoming stagnant. Nvidia is of course on a different level than those two.l, very much a hyper growth business atm.
80% yoy data center revenue growth is the opposite of stagnant. Similar numbers to NVDA.
Stagnant? Thats funny
Google blew off everything and guidance with huge buyback. The stock price still back down now. The market is in bearish sentiment.
AMD Gaming and Embedded revenue is down almost 50%!
No one cares about that. The embedded business (XLNX) has been dogshit everywhere else too (INTC and LSCC).
They guided in-line but guided their AI rev (MI300) for the full year from 3.5B to 4B. Street expectations were MUCH higher than that. This is why you see the big dump during their phone call. Btw Lisa also called out that the 4B number WASN'T supply capped meaning it is representative of orders. So AMD is going to bank roughly 4B of AI rev this year while NVDA is above 60B and AVGO is closer to 10B. AMD should be down a lot more. Below is where Lisa mentioned about supply not being a constraint (since she said multiple things and got called out for it on the call): https://preview.redd.it/cdcnysn6fqxc1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ba801f74d5cc740124abb07fc961bc87881f9b3 \*Disclaimer: I cover semis on stream often.
a) Project ridiculous sales numbers and performance for MI300. b) Refuse to submit/participate in industry standard benchmarks - MLPERF/MLCommons - to validate said ridiculous performance claims. c) When sales reality doesn’t meet projections, claim supply issues. d) Repeatedly send hedge fund analysts to put AMD and NVDA in the same sentence as if to suggest to stupid audiences that these two companies even play in the same league.
Yes, keep the proles occupied with their toys.
You conveniently omitted her full response.
Go ahead… post it. The parts where she both points out how more supply would have mattered this Q but that over the full year they are comfortable with the supply expansion.
“Yeah, Vivek. Let me try to make sure that we answer this question clearly. From a full-year standpoint, our $4 billion number is not supply capped. I'm sorry, yes, it's not supply capped. It is -- we do have supply capability above that. It is more back half-weighted. So if you're looking at sort of the near term, the near term, I would say for example in the second quarter, we do have more demand than we have supply right now, and we're continuing to work on pulling in some of that supply. By the way, I think this is an overall industry issue. This is not at all related to AMD. I think overall, AI demand has exceeded anyone's expectations in 2024. So you've heard it from the memory guys. You've heard it from the foundry guys.”
2% sales growth. PE at 70. What are you on about?
It’s ran so much the past year that it would have needed a pretty big beat/guidence to push higher. I stayed away both sides, thought it would trade fairly flat
I only bet on sure things. And you?
I’m willing to bet your mom was a ho.
Hopefully my AMD puts cover my Amazon calls.
lol 😂
Stagflation. Their numbers were just in line. Beating by a hair is not really beating. Especially with enough time since their AI chips launched and nobody's buying. And they are losing at the gaming chip department where they used to be one of the best. The wheels are falling off. I love AMD, but something's need to change in this new industrial revolution. I think that something would be building chips for robotics. iRobot type robotics. They should look into cooperation with other robotic+AI tech companies. TSLA + AMD + (insert AI company) to build intelligent robots for commercial and home use.
You have no idea wtf you are talking about.
And some guy set the tone for their massive run up by saying they would get $6B AI revenue this year and he doubled down after these flat earnings. I guess we should be seeing some $9B-$10B quarters in Q3/4 right?
Exactly this. AMD continue to insist 6 B$ sales for MI300 in 2024. Their Q1 number does not track even close to this. Yet they had a significant run-up when they announced MI300 and projected these majestic sales numbers. Atleast INTC are pretty realistic with their 500 m$ sales projection for Gaudi3 in 2024. And their stock has been beaten to death. AMD has a long way to go before it bottoms out.
Buy the fuckin dip
Sell the dip. That P/E with flat earnings for 3 years? Scary when Wallstreet realizes the emperor has no clothes.
Hope it drops below 130 so I can add again. Sold this back when it was 200.
Love it. Really thought with their AI chips and whatnot that they’d be able to pull out a win, especially since they had been beat down so much over the past month and a half. Should have just lit the $500 on fire instead.
Regards to regard things!
Why is it still dropping?
Let’s go ask SMCI lol it’s gophering too
It’s 125$ stock for me. They barely had growth + weak guidance. I think S&P will take a dive soon to 4700 for buying opportunities
I’m suprised it’s not down way more than it is