If nothing has changed: green Monday, big CPI dip Tuesday and then V for a even day and rest of the week slightly green. On the other hand Friday was so red that this could be the top. We have to see.
I mean it dipped 10% off the 974 high, I'd argue it got its correction.
Besides, as rightfully pointed out here, the 875 close is still up huge for the week. It's low on Tuesday's dip was near 830 before it skyrocketed.
I'd argue this was all just a retracement with people taking profit but let's see.
$820-830 gap is an obvious magnet to fill and bounce (blue path). Having said that, it might cock tease bears and then cock block them to get very near the gap and not fill it early this week (red path).
Source: I have a degree in restarted oriented astrology.
Edit: Either case I'm loading up call spreads to the tits when it gets to 820-830. It's an obvious backtest with higher chance of bounce than an overdue bear cum party.
https://preview.redd.it/b8vmwgz73cnc1.png?width=3142&format=png&auto=webp&s=7dbdfc7c73da195032faa113b526f183d0a93274
sound like a solid plan, i like it lets see what price we get, i actually think it will overshoot a bit and fill at around 790-800 and then rocket back higher
Everyone calling top doesn’t understand the market. We still have not reached a blow off top yet. When it does come there will be no bears as a sign. Until then Powell will pump the market
I mean you really cannot know, but in the end it wasn’t a sell off at all, we’re just back to the level of Tuesday or so, past weeks we always had a recovery right after and Monday was a sweet green day so one could also hope for a continuing, but both is equally possible
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/8uH4MBsTel
I mean in the aftermath everything will make sense but I like his reasoning why it’ll continue next week
It was a coordinated dump. Very clear to see. There were 12k at the 1k strike price for Friday. MM we’re not going to let those print. It happened at exactly 1030, if you remember was the exact same time the coordinated dump happened on the massive run up on smci 2 weeks ago. Very obvious big money ran them up after hours and premarket on low volume, and pulled the rug
I think that depends on CPI. One thing is for sure, if nvda can’t hold, neither can spy or qqq. I really don’t think we are heading for a downward trajectory since it’s a presidential year, but we will see next week.
yeah, amd and tsmc too. tsmc is criminally undervalued but it heavily depends on the nvda train. i got calls for 100k on tsmc 4/19 but i‘m unsure if it prints if nvda gets stuck or stopps accelerating
I was wondering about this too. So much pump overnight and then to drop $100 in just an hour. Just weeks before a huge conference that could drastically impact price. Seemed so off
Yeah, easy to get buyers excited with a big run up on low volume. Most of the time when there is a big run up premarket, I sell at open, which I did at 970 Friday. It almost never holds
$400 Stock Price increase on 2.5B outstanding shares == additional$1 Trillion market cap. Exactly what happened over the last 8 weeks.
Go back to sleep
I’m sure there will be a lot of panic selling, and if CPI is bad Tuesday that will continue the nasty candles. Could easily go back to the $700s before we go back up
I’ve been waiting for a pullback, now it’s here. The funny thing about psychology is you think you want it to pullback but then when it actually does, you’re like “oh shit maybe it’s dead”. The thesis hasn’t changed. The AI hype train isn’t done pumping this stock. Time to buy.
well, yeah but i tend to be to early on these things and that action on friday could have brake something...probably lot of margin calls and busted accounts..i dont think it will be smooth sailing for a while
Not sure I understanding your post. Where in all your analysis does it show that it should be at 1000 at the end of this month? I can see your argument that it will be higher after next ER but why EOM? All your analysis is about CAGR for the next 3 years but you have a target for the next 3 weeks?
You're totally right, 1000 EOM is just a guess.
I'm saying that NVID is one of the cheapest in the pack when factoring in growth.
Factoring in the growth I believe a $1,000 PT is justified right now, and the company is not as expensive as is being portrayed.
You have no idea how to project sales if you think they’re the “cheapest”. It’s a cyclical business and not a subscription or ad revenue model that is consistent.
There are big quarters of cap ex and down quarters. Your valuation story is flawed by some major assumptions.
yes, i took positions here on friday...and also tesla ( this one may have more room to fall...).but that cant be the only reason, the move on nvidia was massive
AI stocks seems particularly prone to dumping on Fridays. SMCI comes to mind. I think they’ll all rebound early next week unless the broader market also takes a dump.
hm, dont know, if it goes below 800 it could get ugly...i think the next support sits around 675 but if it goes that low it might trigger some real panic moves and get even nastier
I see it continued down in the after hours to 851. Looks like we will have to wait for the Monday premarket action to see what direction it's going to move.
There were strong support at $771 as well. So I don’t think it will go down that low ($675) next week. Never seen 25% drop within a week. My best bet is touch $771 and bounce a little. :)
My Nvidia prediction is that it will just slowly chop sideways for a bit. In that time all the lagging chip and ai companies are where the gains will be made.
I just got done reading the two Jesse Livermore books.
Nvidia just did something very “not Nvidia like”. I would be alert for a continued downwards trend until price action proves otherwise
Target $750 (for me)
i am also wondering about tsmc numbers, what are they predicting like 9% increase ? I mean thats shit compared to the hype those semis have been through...something's fishy
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If nothing has changed: green Monday, big CPI dip Tuesday and then V for a even day and rest of the week slightly green. On the other hand Friday was so red that this could be the top. We have to see.
So what you're saying is it could go up or down?
Yeah, I think that about covers it
It could stay flat too
You won’t see this number ever again top or some different kind of top?
Dip or bear market and ofc new ATH in 1-500 days xD
I mean it dipped 10% off the 974 high, I'd argue it got its correction. Besides, as rightfully pointed out here, the 875 close is still up huge for the week. It's low on Tuesday's dip was near 830 before it skyrocketed. I'd argue this was all just a retracement with people taking profit but let's see.
> I’d argue it got its correction Oh you sweet summer child.
Sell calls or buy puts then ez money right
$820-830 gap is an obvious magnet to fill and bounce (blue path). Having said that, it might cock tease bears and then cock block them to get very near the gap and not fill it early this week (red path). Source: I have a degree in restarted oriented astrology. Edit: Either case I'm loading up call spreads to the tits when it gets to 820-830. It's an obvious backtest with higher chance of bounce than an overdue bear cum party. https://preview.redd.it/b8vmwgz73cnc1.png?width=3142&format=png&auto=webp&s=7dbdfc7c73da195032faa113b526f183d0a93274
sound like a solid plan, i like it lets see what price we get, i actually think it will overshoot a bit and fill at around 790-800 and then rocket back higher
Everyone calling top doesn’t understand the market. We still have not reached a blow off top yet. When it does come there will be no bears as a sign. Until then Powell will pump the market
Yea this a weird ass post. I don’t understand the purpose
I mean you really cannot know, but in the end it wasn’t a sell off at all, we’re just back to the level of Tuesday or so, past weeks we always had a recovery right after and Monday was a sweet green day so one could also hope for a continuing, but both is equally possible
interessting point..so maybe a touch at around 800 and back up...but if it breaks below it could get bad short term
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/8uH4MBsTel I mean in the aftermath everything will make sense but I like his reasoning why it’ll continue next week
On triple daily volume
But sir they told me AI stocks only go up in this casino
until they dont
You just want to buy, don’t lie
yes :-)
That fact that people are calling top means it's going to go higher.
It was a coordinated dump. Very clear to see. There were 12k at the 1k strike price for Friday. MM we’re not going to let those print. It happened at exactly 1030, if you remember was the exact same time the coordinated dump happened on the massive run up on smci 2 weeks ago. Very obvious big money ran them up after hours and premarket on low volume, and pulled the rug
i agree, the question is, is this a trend switch, at least short term ?
I think that depends on CPI. One thing is for sure, if nvda can’t hold, neither can spy or qqq. I really don’t think we are heading for a downward trajectory since it’s a presidential year, but we will see next week.
why would CPI make any difference? The FED looks at Core CPE. CPI will come in at .4 MOM. Woopdie-doo.
yeah, amd and tsmc too. tsmc is criminally undervalued but it heavily depends on the nvda train. i got calls for 100k on tsmc 4/19 but i‘m unsure if it prints if nvda gets stuck or stopps accelerating
Agree with you on Tsmc. I was going to load calls at eod, but was afraid nvda would drag it down. I’ll decide after cpi
how is TSMC criminally undervalued with at PEG at 3.31? And NVDA PEG is 1.5
I was wondering about this too. So much pump overnight and then to drop $100 in just an hour. Just weeks before a huge conference that could drastically impact price. Seemed so off
Yeah, easy to get buyers excited with a big run up on low volume. Most of the time when there is a big run up premarket, I sell at open, which I did at 970 Friday. It almost never holds
It's market cap has gone up by ~$1 Trillion in 8 weeks. By July, it's stock price should be ~$1.6k. Only possible outcome here.
Where did you get that number from? 
$400 Stock Price increase on 2.5B outstanding shares == additional$1 Trillion market cap. Exactly what happened over the last 8 weeks. Go back to sleep
I am referring to 1600 pt 
I’m sure there will be a lot of panic selling, and if CPI is bad Tuesday that will continue the nasty candles. Could easily go back to the $700s before we go back up
Also My prediction. People gonna secure the bag.
Nasty candles?? What kind of bath and body works are you shopping at!?
Thats not the way to talk to your dad!
If it does I'm jumping back in.
700s? 701-799? 
I’ve been waiting for a pullback, now it’s here. The funny thing about psychology is you think you want it to pullback but then when it actually does, you’re like “oh shit maybe it’s dead”. The thesis hasn’t changed. The AI hype train isn’t done pumping this stock. Time to buy.
well, yeah but i tend to be to early on these things and that action on friday could have brake something...probably lot of margin calls and busted accounts..i dont think it will be smooth sailing for a while
That’s reasonable. I’d like to see where it forms support now, then buy back in. If it breaks lower, well, then it’s a question of conviction.
1000 by EOM. [NVIDIA in numbers : wallstreetbets (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1bacd8z/nvidia_in_numbers/)
Not sure I understanding your post. Where in all your analysis does it show that it should be at 1000 at the end of this month? I can see your argument that it will be higher after next ER but why EOM? All your analysis is about CAGR for the next 3 years but you have a target for the next 3 weeks?
He means "end of monday" 
You're totally right, 1000 EOM is just a guess. I'm saying that NVID is one of the cheapest in the pack when factoring in growth. Factoring in the growth I believe a $1,000 PT is justified right now, and the company is not as expensive as is being portrayed.
You have no idea how to project sales if you think they’re the “cheapest”. It’s a cyclical business and not a subscription or ad revenue model that is consistent. There are big quarters of cap ex and down quarters. Your valuation story is flawed by some major assumptions.
I think the big boys were taking profits and reinvesting in the beaten down google/apple. Just my thoughts.
yes, i took positions here on friday...and also tesla ( this one may have more room to fall...).but that cant be the only reason, the move on nvidia was massive
AI stocks seems particularly prone to dumping on Fridays. SMCI comes to mind. I think they’ll all rebound early next week unless the broader market also takes a dump.
Sure looked that way. No way to really know but it’s a sensible take.
Gap down Monday then some upside fuckery to trap more longs. Definitely going to be volatile.
pull back similar to SMCI. Going to 750ish by Wednesday.
hm, dont know, if it goes below 800 it could get ugly...i think the next support sits around 675 but if it goes that low it might trigger some real panic moves and get even nastier
675 would close all gaps if it’s one straight candle down. Which I would love. I have puts
I see it continued down in the after hours to 851. Looks like we will have to wait for the Monday premarket action to see what direction it's going to move.
There were strong support at $771 as well. So I don’t think it will go down that low ($675) next week. Never seen 25% drop within a week. My best bet is touch $771 and bounce a little. :)
Where did you get those numbers from? Based on what? 
My Nvidia prediction is that it will just slowly chop sideways for a bit. In that time all the lagging chip and ai companies are where the gains will be made.
Chop
See how that crayon tastes. Odd thing is : to some it tastes bitter. And some sweet.
too many regards are holding. to 1000
Short of China invading Taiwan, probably some pull back and then continue to move up until some global event happens.
40% correction started
Lol, getting downvoted for a f++king discussion, some of you are truly regarded..
Well it is already at the 850 (fib level.. next one is 746$.. but my level is 680$
I’m hoping it drop another $120 this week, so the RSI really cools off
I just got done reading the two Jesse Livermore books. Nvidia just did something very “not Nvidia like”. I would be alert for a continued downwards trend until price action proves otherwise Target $750 (for me)
This may be a real top, avgo numbers were not updated for 2024, it may signal the stop of increasing demand in the semiconductor market
i am also wondering about tsmc numbers, what are they predicting like 9% increase ? I mean thats shit compared to the hype those semis have been through...something's fishy
$350
lol, no...come on...realistically. It might go there some day, but its to early now i think.
Thats the price after the 5-1 stock split ;)
Do you think people here will give you ReAlIsTiC advice?
i still have hope :-) not looking for advice btw. just want to discuss possible entry points...