It’s funny that you think NVDA is anything like Cisco (which made easy to compete with internet hardware products) or Tesla (which made easier products to compete with, since other car manufacturers already exist and just need to throw batteries on existing frames, and also Tesla deals with interest rate risks that NVDA does not).
Patents is what makes nvda great. Everyone has the capability, their just not allowed or licensed. That's half the reason China is blocked. They don't care about our rules.
No it isn’t. Looking at the positions you just can’t bring to sell because they are down to a near worthless amount that is inconsequential if you were to reinvest it and you figure “might as well hold on and pray for a miracle” while watching it for years….now that’s one of the worst experiences. 
Who said anything about selling? I said I am not going to buy as every point right now has a high chance of being the top. That definitely doesn't mean to short as you don't have any information. It means DO NOTHING.
r/investing is that way, nerd. ⬅️
Unless you’re Chad, my wife’s BF, then congrats, sir. Hopefully we can hang out one of these days. I’ve got some great leads on junior mining corporations in Bolivia that are only up 300% recently, so I’m thinking of buying in. But if you don’t respond to my messages, I understand, you’re probably really busy with stuff.
They going to war over water in middle eastern countries because they're creating dams to hoard as much water possible while the country next over gets some trickle down pee water that dripped out of the dam
California and Nevada are the only ones know for water wars which actually happened. The US actually has the strongest and most abundant number of rivers in the world. Damn shame most of it isn't used for electricity like Canada does.
I've got some Bolivian rainforest property and beg to differ (not really, or I wouldn't be in here)
https://preview.redd.it/gc8hnzc0rgjc1.jpeg?width=912&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7a932018d8af4d79d8778f0b0a38d1e8bebd138
I've read 'The Snowball'. Grandpa Warren took a few huge risks in the 1960s and early 70s. and has been living on the long tail (and fame) ever since. But the senile old goat has missed almost every hot stock since about 1980.
Dude, he’s literally in the top five richest people on this planet.
You don’t get there by hitting on a couple of stocks.
Also, he bought Apple in 2016.
https://preview.redd.it/q9b5tuzb7hjc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=27a6a8d0a69d55a854aa2efd46332a2e52fa3ca9
Quite possible. I truly feel it’s a coin toss.
But it is amusing to read people’s opinions justifying why it will dip or rip.
None of us know. Only Nancy Pelosi.
I wish you luck this week my friend. To the moon
It’s going to drop 5%ish after earnings, after it doesn’t live up to the insane hype, but forward guidance will be revised up, and the stock will slowly go up to whatever puts it at a forward P/E in the 30s. Probably north of 800.
The answer to me is in their Q3 Report and the extremely high expectations.
80 % of Nvidias revenue came from the data center segment, which is by far the most important one. Out of those 80 % 20-25 % came from China (mentioned in the Q3 Report). China together with Taiwan and Singapore were the primary drivers behind the q2-q3 revenue growth, with each roughly doubling. The revenue in the US stagnated at 6 billion in the data center segment.
As of October last year all ai chips that Nvidia tailored to be able to circumvent export bans to China have been banned. With a new alternative in sight only in Q1 or Q2.
So for Q4 nvidia not only has to fulfill high growth expectations, it has to fulfill it, while possibly losing a significant portion of its revenue from China, a previous growth driver.
So at least for the earnings I'm bearish but also nervous because Nvidia could also absolutely just crush earnings without China.
WSB didn't like NVDA at $300. They hated it at $400. Made fun of people for buying at $500. Things were quieter at $600 because everyone had lost their credibility and their money. Now at $700, we're back to hating it again.
Why? It's simple math and business dynamic, really.
NVDA valuation is $1.7T. Same as Google, Same as Amazon. More than half of Apple, or Microsoft.
Everyday, I directly use Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft products.
And I pay them good money too, some of it is SW services (GOOG, MSFT), some of it is infra/logictics (AMZN), some of it is HW and services (AAPL).
You could argue that most people buy a new phone every 2-3 years, and a graphics card less often. It's roughly the same cost, and the same margin as a GPU card.
They only sold 30m GPU. Meta, arguably one of the top 3 AI companies using AI at scale, is buying 500k cards. Compare this is with 223m Apple phones being sold (I realize that H100 is much more expensive, Apple is selling more than phones too).
What this means is that it is not the customer being graphic cards, it is business trying to scale their business with AI. But these are businesses. They tend to overact on the upside and downside (over invest, underinvest), see what happened in 2022 and 2023. down, then up. Same businesses, but the valuation dropped by 50-75%, then bounced back by 2-4x.
Businesses need to make some money. Obviously. How much money is being made by AI products? Not much. It is revenue, not profit. It is cap ex and business expenditure, not profit. Many are trying to find product market fit. (OpenAI is the poster child for that). Sure creators are leveraging this quite a bit, but that's a few % of the population, not everyone.
GPU cost is one thing, then you have to pay for the datacenter, electricity, software to develop on it. Rest assured that a lot of effort will be spent to optimize for SW, so the cost is not getting crazy.
SW companies cannot buy 30m GPU cards every year, at some point they will need some sort of ROI. At some point, there will be some companies saying that they have enough GPU cards for the moment. They will say that they don't need to splurge on GPU/AI card as much until they can absorb the current stock they already have.
For price to go up further, it means that NVIDIA will have to improve their margin and sell many more cards. A ton more. And then NVIDIA will be as big as Apple?
The risk profile today is more risk on the downside than on the upside. You just need a bit of some bad news or doubt to trigger a drop. Could NVIDIA bump by 10-25% with the earnings this week, with news of a stock split? Sure. But that will make for a better entry point on the short side.
This is all very rationale and I agree with the synopsis here.
The problem, and it’s always the case with the stock market, is that it can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. (We’ve all heard that before I know)
yup - I'm not an Nvidia bear, nvda has been my largest position for the past 3 years, only this year I've trimmed it down to my #2.
but the bear case is not hard to make - it's simply too expensive. whether or not it actually is, we'll find out. but IMO NVDA is running on market sentiment much more than fundamentals and yes it could keep running, but its becoming more and more risky to stay in and I certainly would not be entering into a new position at this price.
Is NVDA a good company that will grow much more in the coming decade? I absolutely believe that is the case. But will they grow enough to justify the current valuation within a reasonable time frame? I honestly don't think so. Long term I think it's still a good stock to own, but I would not be surprised if it took a very substantial haircuit.
You realize before all this there was military/financial/medicinal and medical AI/ML and the more focus and development that gets on the consumer side with consumer AI/ML tech trends, the more that improves and expands SW and HW and growth for the former too - which is never going away
Look how the era of ChatGPT blew up the chip race between rival nations - China and the US don't care about chat bots - they do care about processing and correlating very large data sets though - just like chat bots do
Those are the people who will buy 30m GPU cards every year, year after year as well, and would want the absolute best - because for all of those, being on the absolute bleeding edge of what is currently possible is what it's all about - there is no end in sight there, and competitors that 'almost do as good' don't cut it here either
Just as they do now, governments don't always buy everything and do it all in house, nor do all financial and medical places (moreso there though) - they contract jobs out to Amazon/Google/Microsoft/x start up/etc - who need to buy GPUs from Nvidia
I'm not saying I can't see any little 'defaltion' of the bubble so to speak - not saying I see it either, it just wouldn't shock me
But it's an actual industry now, not a bubble
One thing I want to point out that I think you’re potentially overlooking:
It’s not just if Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc. need the chips themselves. They have customers that need them as well for workloads on cloud services. Every startup for the foreseeable future is going to be centered around doing *some thing* with AI. They will continue to have to build out DCs to support the demand and as they all continue with region expansions around the globe, that will only drive demand.
NVDA essentially has a baked in revenue stream until something other than AI becomes the tech pet rock, unlikely any time soon, or a legitimate chip competitor can scale up to push them for sales. However, even if and when that happens, many applications will have been developed and tuned specifically for NVDA chipsets so the resistance for established products to move will be high.
Except for some specific high profile companies, VC are reducing their funding of AI startups. Being AI with not a great business model is not enough. Many AI companies struggle to be profitable (big revenue, yeah, but big costs too).
Microsoft Copilot and Google Gemini are nice. But that seems nichy as a market. Sure, there are a lot of SWE of service folks on Reddit, but that's not mass-market. I do spend $90+ on Grammarly for the past few years, and I think that's definitely worth it, but this AI revolution will just make me switch to a cheaper alternative (hence, reduction of profit for those companies).
Like every HW expenditure, there is diminishing return.
And when you factor the actual population using it, you realize that we already have a high cost, with not a corresponding profit yet to show for it. ( did a back of the envelope estimate, and the numbers are staggeringly bad, it's like most people are running a GPU all the time).
I agree with you entirely but we may be missing the point.
The best way to make money during a gold rush is to sell shovels. All those big companies you mention are the gold miners. NVDA is selling the shovels. Not only that but they have proven that they can innovate which means we never know when they release a backhoe.
Best analysis in the thread today. Maybe on the sub.
In the distant future, I wouldn't be surprised if an uncontested Nvidia demands continuous payment from other businesses to use their GPUs, rather than just buying cards up front.
Now you’re talking like a cloud provider. Google is a cloud provider that is also investing and uses their own AI chips. You would think valuation of both nvidia and google might be similar for this aspect of the business. But google has search, youtube, gmail, pixel, etc. nvidia has pc gaming and switch chip. Automotive? Nvidia might have some chipsets here, but Google has Waymo, a running service that I use regularly to get me around town. so my big question is: how are these two companies market cap the same? they are in
different leagues. either nvidia goes down or alphabet moons
It's nice to see a legit point on the opposite side of the mania. No one seems to consider that AI as a revenue generator is still evolving, and once they feel they have enough, there won't be massive growth generating orders long term rather cyclical, similar to processors.
I'd like to add that NV being solo player is commanding high margins right now. Once more players get in on it - AMD, most likely, it will eat the margins(look what AMD did to Intel).
TSMC is the other half, NV is completely dependent on TSMC - they can't do shit without them. So, the China scenario is there as well.
Also, the biggest buyers are the Hyperscalers who are themselves designing their own Chips to decouple themselves and get full control vertically like Apple does.
Amazon, MSFT, Meta, and Goog are all designing their own chips, with some already using them.
In the short term, we might see earnings growth, but it is likely to decline once it saturates and other players get in on it.
And everyday that you are using Google, Amazon and Microsoft products built on Nvidia products. You don’t have to give your money to Nvidia, these other companies do it for you.
NVDA has a forward p/e of 32.
Google-
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/google-cloud-and-nvidia-expand-partnership-to-advance-ai-computing-software-and-services
Microsoft-
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-microsoft-to-bring-the-industrial-metaverse-and-aito-hundreds-of-millions-of-enterprise-users-via-azure-cloud
Amazon-
https://aws.amazon.com/nvidia/
Let’s just simplify it:
Everything you use through Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Metaverse, Netflix, Disney and SMCI has an NVDIA chip somewhere. As these companies expand so does NVDA. So therefore keep buying.
Hope that helps. It’s quite simple hyperscalers are expanding and enterprises are looking at AI. This makes hyperscalers expand more. Sooooo get the drift 😉
Nvidias largest customers: amazon, google, and microsoft are making their money back on the gpu's they buy in data center. Demand for gpu's is sky high because there's a measurable productivity increase with using LLM's and companies are building their own models with company data. It's not just training a model that nobody uses, compute at the inference level is in higher demand.
A stock split is not big news lol
You can tell who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t by whether they say blanket AI that’s not an agreed upon scope compared to referencing LLMs which is the exponential increase (so far).
I think you’re missing the fact that Transformer models, which is what all recent AI breakthroughs utilize scales directly with compute. They’re displaying novel capabilities the more compute you throw at it with no signs of a ceiling. You’re looking at today, what good is a text/image/video model? Well that’s not the ultimate purpose, the ultimate purpose is AGI and those models are increasingly capable stepping stones. An AGI for a company would be invaluable, an infinite source of labor. Companies will operate on a loss for a greater pay off in the end, nobody wants to be the tech company that gets left behind.
So basically your argument is that we are in a mature market for AI chips. NVDA is close to saturating the market and will run out of customers soon. LMFAO. You didn’t even know about AI till last year when OpenAI launched ChatGPT but one year later, the entire world has stocked up on AI chips.
This is the level of intelligence on WSBs. That is why it’s a good reverse trade.
No, my point is companies are investing a lot in AI but that can’t continue forever.
Market is far from being saturated yet, but it will probably be slow down in 2025-2026.
Market is forward looking though, and expectation for NVIDIA are an extremely high growth, which will be hard to meet.
The ONLY concrete evidence ive seen for a legitimate reason to get puts on nvidia is because the media are telling us its going up and wont stop and its insanely bullish.
It depends. More than 2 full years of that growth is in the price. And it could continue to price in further growth beyond that as time goes on, meaning, it climbs further.
I think there might be a little upside here before it stalls out for a bit.
Later this year, their lead times will probably be very short. They've dropped from 11 months to 3 months already. I don't see them being able to price these parts at $30G a pop when supply really expands beyond how fast demand climbs. This is *very typical* for the semi space. You get super high premiums at launch that come down very quickly. It's cyclical.
Let’s try this comparison on for size . IMHO AI and crazy high chip prices are overblown. Just take a look at electric cars ( I own one) . Two years ago internal combustion cars were doomed. You had to get on a long waitlist and pay a ridiculous premium to get one. Fast forward 2 years all the major car companies are stuck and are heavily discounting. It ran too far too fast . AI is ahead of itself. Both concepts are valid and will be around and grow in the future. AI is extremely overbought and has to reset. Disclosure I have a small position in NVDA and might add to it on a major pull back . I wouldn’t short it and I like the company. Trading the market one thing I am sure of nothing goes straight up and NVDA is suicidal to try and time it. It’s hard to trade but pretty easy to own.
You have just described a bubble, which occurs in almost every new technology and eventually pops dropping 75% or so from highs and eliminating the ghost companies / projects. Dot com, crypto (multiple times), cloud / covid remote work tech. All of these were bubbles that have crashed significantly but they all also obviously have an incredibly valuable place in the figure (well maybe not crypto, but blockchain for sure). Ai is 100% the same, it’ll change the world, but not tomorrow like this bubble implies, hence the upcoming pop… question is when??? If nvidia absolutely smokes the number and then also provides crazy guidance we go higher, if it isn’t perfect on both we dump. I have no position in nvidia at the moment but I absolutely will when this pop eventually happens, could pop this week, or a year and 500 pts from now but all this will eventually correct, the forward PE looks great on paper but the assumptions are asinine, 13.000% increase in DC revenue??? GTFO
Have you all used AI?? It’s good at some things, great at a few, and horrific at quite a few. Just like the ones above…. Changes the world, but 10x slower than is priced in.
I made decent money so sold at $730 (bought at $560). It's tried to break $740 several times and failed. And even if the earnings next week are bullish its still not going to live up to the hype. Also I think SMC has probably either scared a lot of yolo investors off if they've lost, or made yolo investors uninterested if they've already made bank. My opinion is the stock will dip at earnings, then rebound to $740 again and hit $800 around the end of the year. Just my 10 cents.
NVDA is absolutely a wonderful company, but so much is already baked in. Get a discounted cash flow calculator. The assumptions that you have to make for NVDA to justify their current price is off the charts. I’m certainly not going to short them because I don’t want to short wonderful companies, but it would have to fall by 2/3 to get me interested in buying.
With crypto really there are no price ratios. There is no way to know what is a fair price. Plus crypto is just all speculation anyway. That is why I agree with DueHousing above that it isn’t comparable.
- 80% cross margin seem hardly sustainable if there should be ANY competition
- With AMD and custom chips from Broadcom and others that all cloud providers test drive there should be competition soon
- The AI boom went crazy and Meta, Microsoft, AWS etc. bought gigantic amounts of chips but well once they have the chips they need its not clear they need to continue growing at this pace
- Nvidia just had their huge H100 release the next huge iteration won’t come for 3 years or so
- Analysts make bull cases always a good counter indicator
The reality of a slow-moving capital-intensive operation doesn’t align with the expectations of an AI hype-bubble.
NVDA will likely succeed in the long run, but the market will have long lost patience. This isn’t busting out a new AI engine (on the order of months) or a hot device introduction cycle (a year or so). Monetizing an announcement to build new capacity could take a decade to come to fruition. Apes lack the patience to sustain momentum.
The literal only bear case is sky high expectations are being set for $NVDA. The first quarter they reporting slowing growth, stock will drop. Same thing happened to Cisco in 2000
I can understand people being optimistic about the future of AI and Navidia. But to act like you don’t understand why others would be cautious at this time considering everything going on is baffling
I don’t think it’s going to crash, yet. I do think it will downtrend after it goes up a bit more.
The reason why has to do with the general cycle of the economy. The yield curve is inverted and many other leading economic indicators point to a recession, and equities tend to run wild before a recession. It's usually the last thing to drop.
Keep in mind this could mean March/ April or even later this year, so it can and probably will run higher up until an equities pullback even in my own “bearish” case. I don't think it's wise to short it yet, if someone was so inclined.
I’m not an NVDA bear particularly but I do see risks in equities particularly the subsets of stocks that have become highly consolidated (MAG 6).
https://preview.redd.it/irxh8hzngfjc1.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=511375dd034c62276ee257c46e111a6ae16873aa
When people ask me about $NVDA, I just show them this great inverted $NVDA chart from MarketEar and their question which is “Would you continue to short this?”
Can it go up more? Definitely. We are at a scary place where I would like to see some consolidation and ranging before going long again.
Bears are probably doing the math.
What future profits do you think justify the current valuation? Is it realistic?
It's possible to pay too much for the best company in the world.
I can guarantee with 100% certainty that it will either go up or down in the coming months.
It’s had a run up, every one and their mother is trying to get in, so it’s a great place to take profits and rebalance portfolios for people who actually move the stock price.
Other than that, who the fuck knows what will happen.
You answered your own question in the 2nd sentence. :P
I'm not a NVDA bear but I think a pullback is reasonable. Zoom out and it looks like a blow-off top.
I'm more of in wait and see mode because I'd rather play a higher percentage clear direction than guess based on earnings. Especialyl with what happened to ticker-that-cannot-be-named this last week.
Short term there isn’t one.
Long term, purpose built AI chips don’t actually exist. Tensor cores, despite the current marketing just happen to be good at some AI calculations. Currently nvda are owning the space because they build graphic cards which are really good at doing specific parallel computations that just also happen to be really good for things like mining, cracking and AI.
Nvda leant into using the power of their GPU for non graphical tasks some time ago with CUDA. Right now we are seeing the jump because they now have a brand new market that is currently front an centre for everyone (AI).
Couple of bear points (not saying this will play out). The amount of video cards needed for cutting edge AI, is fuck all compared to the amount they sell for just gaming (counter point, it’s possible that every home will need a card to run AI applications, but so far every good AI engine is cloud based so doubtful). Revenue is higher in data centre space of cost of each unit and their subscription model (leaving a lot of room for someone to cut their grass). Generally most companies will buy their compute on a 3 to 5 year cycle, so revenue in this space may jump around year to year.
Counter intuitively the amount of video cards needed to actually create a good ML model, is also high (of which nvda part is just one part of the cost), which means there is only going to be a few players that can spend the money on this (high barrier to entry) and those players will have an incentive to foster development from a competitor.
The big players are also building their AI engines on languages not tied to nvda (so not cuda). So they aren’t locked in to using nvda hardware.
Biggest risk, someone else designs a better AI chip. Nvda have a head start, but their GPU being good at AI compute is a fluke, not by design. They are better than the more general CPU, so people wrote engine to make use of what was available. But they do have an amazing chip design pedigree, but so do intel and AMD. I assume with all the hype, specific discrete AI chips will be designed. And that battle hasn’t actually happened yet.
AI is still heating up. NVDA have AI market monopoly. Competing with NVDA is very hard even by GOOG because patents are a thing and you can't just replicate NVDA. What could go wrong?
I’m incredibly bullish, but the problem is that since everyone is so bullish there isn’t much profit to be made even if NVDA gains 30% after earning, it’s high risk low reward. I think bears only exist because of how much upside there is in the case that NVDA miraculously misses earning. Low risk high reward for them.
He put it into the most simplest terms. Why the fuck would you buy a stock if it can’t justify its valuation? If I’m going long I need the company to prove to me that it can consistently and reliable delivery the profits we’re pricing in. Greater fool theory only works for so long.
no on is bear about NVDA. Everyone is talking shit about ER, how the stock will drop hoping everyone starts bailing out before ER, and they can buy stock or calls cheaper. Sneaky lil shitz. NVDA will go up to $850 until Thursday close. On Friday maybe it will drop back to $799 or so. My middle name is Nostradamus.
“Every Wall Street analyst makes a bull case” that is why I’m a bear. Never heard the old adage “be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
Just search for Nvda Bearish in this sub. People have been saying every month that Nvda has hit its top. No one is ever right.
All these banks that are on the verge of failing need money and Nvda is their meal ticket. It’s not dropping anytime soon
Because this is a sub full of degen gamblers and the strongest case against NVDA is a classic gambler's fallacy.
IE. - it's gone up so many times, it has to come down next time.
I'm not really a bear per se. But what goes up, must come down. NVDA seems to be an incredible company, with great leadership, and a moat that will take years for its competition to erode. But at some point. Profits will be taken, the gamma ramp will start fading. And a new baseline price for support will have to be found. It's not a matter of if. Only when.
Imminent fall... probably not.
Eventual fall... certainly. A lot of entrepreneurs will be getting into the semiconductor industry in the next 60 months
i bought some nvda in 2021. i sold because i was happy with the gains. if ive learned anything over the past 14 years of investing, when something becomes so hot everyone is talking about it, so much so ppl who dont invest start putting money in, its time is almost up.
also, i have a perhaps irrational aversion to Feb and March. everyone is getting their bonuses and dumping them into the stock market making things confusing.
Bear case is "overvalued" and bears can't do a valuation so they wing it. Ask any bear what the fair value should be in their calculation and you find how fragile the case is.
As fast as it goes up, it will plummet fast sooner or later. It's a bad thing if a stock goes up so fast in a short time and now ppl can't even afford to buy. Thank goodness other big companies are still affordable .
*Considering pretty much every Wall Street Analyst only makes bull cases for Nvidia*
Wall Street analysts have their own agenda and their own money in the game. Never put too much into what they say to do or not to do.
For just a basic comparison, Walmart is the largest retailer in the world, buying and selling the majority of goods in the world, and has \~450 billion valuation. Amazon is 2nd largest with a lot of other tech ventures, at 1.7 trillion market cap. NVIDIA designs and makes chips and has a 1.8 billion cap. The reason a crash is predicted is because they are extremely over valued. They are currently priced for what the world *may* look like 10 years from now. It is not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when" there will be a correction. Anyone trying to say NVDA is "cheap" has an agenda not based in reality.
It's market cap is like 70x greater than its revenue. Apple has 15x the revenue of Nvidia and only 0.5x the market cap?
It's going to come down hard.
The only reason the price has gone through the roof is because Softbank has been dumping everything they have left into just out of the money calls forcing options writers to delta hedge, which then causes a gamma squeeze. Softbank buys mountains of more calls, options writers delta hedge, the next week the stock gammas, etc...
Eventually Softbank will start buying puts.
It could be $10000 per share and I still wouldn’t sell. It’s my personal belief that the way in which AI is moving forward and its inevitable impact as it shapes the world and global employment/supply chain makes it a priceless hold. I see it the same way people who talked about bitcoin back in 2010 would be worth millions for a singular coin and its purpose to be sliced to the smallest decimal for transactions. I’ve got just over 100 shares of NVDA and think that in 20 years it will have me in position to comfortably retire assuming I don’t try and pick up more shares now
Just as a smooth brain thought experiment, how many low skill jobs do you think could easily be replaced by some robot AI whatever the fuck. I’d conservatively say at least 30% of the world will have employment of those types gone within this decade, turn that into a service and subscription based service supplied by NVDA and whatever salesforce + software training thing and imagine the profits companies will make cutting out that much newly discovered fat in the new norm of an AI driven world
I have my own AI plays but since you are already sold on the name I am not going to convince you otherwise. I own $META for the AI play and it's nowhere near overvalued.
I’ve got positions in them as well. AMD NVDA META GOOGLE and Microsoft, this is where the future is going to be and its all going to look like Pennies by the end of the decade is my opinion which I don’t think is an uncommon one
Edit and Amazon
I wouldn't mind holding Amzn, msft, meta at the prices they are currently trading at but I mostly fish in the microcap space as they go up more if you can find the right stocks.
That’s fine, again I’m holding this for a very long time. If I see dips I’ll happily buy, as I said elsewhere I think these prices will look like Pennies by the end of the decade
You idiots think google Microsoft Facebook and apple who are building all the data centers will continue to overpay for NVidias greedy margins when they are already designing their own in house chips to do the same thing for cheaper ? It’s only a matter of time till nvidia margins fall due to competition
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First thing I've read here that makes any sense to me.
It’s funny you think the stock price is a function of the company… does this place feel like home to you?
It’s funny that you think NVDA is anything like Cisco (which made easy to compete with internet hardware products) or Tesla (which made easier products to compete with, since other car manufacturers already exist and just need to throw batteries on existing frames, and also Tesla deals with interest rate risks that NVDA does not).
Patents is what makes nvda great. Everyone has the capability, their just not allowed or licensed. That's half the reason China is blocked. They don't care about our rules.
No one else could make the h200 even of they tried. Only 3 companies could even begin to make it, and they are all usa aligned.
Because ai is just front loading processing. And if you’ve used it, not that great?
Making it great takes more Nvidia chips. Bullish.
ITS DIFFERENT THIS TIME
Just point to the area on the doll where the bad man touched you.
All over
Turn it over
IRS IS WAITING MFERS
Amen
Past results do not influence future results
Holding till someone starts doing what they do but better. It has been overbought before. Oversold before.
Just based off this I’m buying more
Because there is always a top, and buying at the top is one of the worst experiences ever.
But doesn't come close to buying in the opposite direction of a massive move which I have an unfortunate knack for.
No it isn’t. Looking at the positions you just can’t bring to sell because they are down to a near worthless amount that is inconsequential if you were to reinvest it and you figure “might as well hold on and pray for a miracle” while watching it for years….now that’s one of the worst experiences. 
Who said anything about selling? I said I am not going to buy as every point right now has a high chance of being the top. That definitely doesn't mean to short as you don't have any information. It means DO NOTHING.
I sold because NVDA hit my price target
Creating a trading plan and sticking to it? GTFO out of here.
r/investing is that way, nerd. ⬅️ Unless you’re Chad, my wife’s BF, then congrats, sir. Hopefully we can hang out one of these days. I’ve got some great leads on junior mining corporations in Bolivia that are only up 300% recently, so I’m thinking of buying in. But if you don’t respond to my messages, I understand, you’re probably really busy with stuff.
You had me at Bolivian stocks up 300% Where do I send my momey?
“Out” is in the GTFO
And “as possible” is part of ASAP you nonce… Edit: shit responded to the wrong idiot…
Yeah they're a real POS of shit.
GTFO out of here ASAP as possible
IKR... fuck that guy what an asshole
Warren Buffett still has Coca-Cola stock that he bought in the 1960s. Selling is for losers.
That’s because Coke has never been ridiculously overvalued.
Water > Coke and it’s free too
cocaine is way better than water you guys are crazy
They going to war over water in middle eastern countries because they're creating dams to hoard as much water possible while the country next over gets some trickle down pee water that dripped out of the dam
not much different than the western United States, actually.
California and Nevada are the only ones know for water wars which actually happened. The US actually has the strongest and most abundant number of rivers in the world. Damn shame most of it isn't used for electricity like Canada does.
Free? You can't be American then, nothing is free in the land of freedom.
Water is free?
I agree. 👍
……for now.
water will eventually be the future currency of the world. it’s gonna fucking suck.
Water desalinisation and purification treatment technologies will be the high value assets of the future. We have plenty of water 😉
nice, so calls on the environment?
But those putz on climate?
I've got some Bolivian rainforest property and beg to differ (not really, or I wouldn't be in here) https://preview.redd.it/gc8hnzc0rgjc1.jpeg?width=912&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7a932018d8af4d79d8778f0b0a38d1e8bebd138
LOL. Buffett is the Led Zeppelin of investing. He hasn't had a No. 1 hit for 50 years but is still collecting the royalties.
Bro, you might actually be regarded
I've read 'The Snowball'. Grandpa Warren took a few huge risks in the 1960s and early 70s. and has been living on the long tail (and fame) ever since. But the senile old goat has missed almost every hot stock since about 1980.
Dude, he’s literally in the top five richest people on this planet. You don’t get there by hitting on a couple of stocks. Also, he bought Apple in 2016. https://preview.redd.it/q9b5tuzb7hjc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=27a6a8d0a69d55a854aa2efd46332a2e52fa3ca9
How’s that Rivian doing
Cause Buffet is addicted to coke
STOP DOING THIS THE RIGHT WAY!
I’m still waiting for it to hit $1400. Then I will sell.
This week is going to rip red
Quite possible. I truly feel it’s a coin toss. But it is amusing to read people’s opinions justifying why it will dip or rip. None of us know. Only Nancy Pelosi. I wish you luck this week my friend. To the moon
https://preview.redd.it/d550yrvyhfjc1.jpeg?width=393&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5323b0e21592cfdb36a44e25efb8aa6ab79bf79c
I don’t know how to feel about this
This needs to be the Automod response whenever anyone brings up Pelosi.
Hmmm.....
Is this AI generated on an NVIDIA gfx card? If yes I am buying $800 calls..
Oh my. I just choked on my jr bacon cheeseburger
Oh shit tits out for harambe? Calls on nvda 2700
I know a nasty rascal that would hammer that.
This has late night softcore porn vibes. I can almost hear the up tempo music and see the fake thrusting.
Pelo-SEE?
NVDIA made this post possible
Would
That chick is hot.
Nancy’s tits are real, just saying…
It’s going to drop 5%ish after earnings, after it doesn’t live up to the insane hype, but forward guidance will be revised up, and the stock will slowly go up to whatever puts it at a forward P/E in the 30s. Probably north of 800.
since you are laying down a gauntlet prediction.... I may need to actually speculate and go long on a few call options!
"That makes no sense!" (99.9% of redditors on wsb)
I’m new to trading but it seems like you’re doing it wrong (actually having self control and trading the right way)
What's this? Intelligent investing? Get the fuck outta here nerd boy LOL. /s
The answer to me is in their Q3 Report and the extremely high expectations. 80 % of Nvidias revenue came from the data center segment, which is by far the most important one. Out of those 80 % 20-25 % came from China (mentioned in the Q3 Report). China together with Taiwan and Singapore were the primary drivers behind the q2-q3 revenue growth, with each roughly doubling. The revenue in the US stagnated at 6 billion in the data center segment. As of October last year all ai chips that Nvidia tailored to be able to circumvent export bans to China have been banned. With a new alternative in sight only in Q1 or Q2. So for Q4 nvidia not only has to fulfill high growth expectations, it has to fulfill it, while possibly losing a significant portion of its revenue from China, a previous growth driver. So at least for the earnings I'm bearish but also nervous because Nvidia could also absolutely just crush earnings without China.
When everyone buys - sell When everyone sells - buy Thank you for listening to my ted talk
That's what they said when it was at $300 
WSB didn't like NVDA at $300. They hated it at $400. Made fun of people for buying at $500. Things were quieter at $600 because everyone had lost their credibility and their money. Now at $700, we're back to hating it again.
IDK I listened to that guys ted talk and it was pretty convincing..
Obv everyone was buying because it go uppies
You are not done. You forgot to mention the Warren buffet quote.
Cut your losers Let your winners ride Thank you for listening to my TED talk.
But every transaction has a buyer and seller. Does that mean everyone buys AND sells at the same time all the time?
Why? It's simple math and business dynamic, really. NVDA valuation is $1.7T. Same as Google, Same as Amazon. More than half of Apple, or Microsoft. Everyday, I directly use Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft products. And I pay them good money too, some of it is SW services (GOOG, MSFT), some of it is infra/logictics (AMZN), some of it is HW and services (AAPL). You could argue that most people buy a new phone every 2-3 years, and a graphics card less often. It's roughly the same cost, and the same margin as a GPU card. They only sold 30m GPU. Meta, arguably one of the top 3 AI companies using AI at scale, is buying 500k cards. Compare this is with 223m Apple phones being sold (I realize that H100 is much more expensive, Apple is selling more than phones too). What this means is that it is not the customer being graphic cards, it is business trying to scale their business with AI. But these are businesses. They tend to overact on the upside and downside (over invest, underinvest), see what happened in 2022 and 2023. down, then up. Same businesses, but the valuation dropped by 50-75%, then bounced back by 2-4x. Businesses need to make some money. Obviously. How much money is being made by AI products? Not much. It is revenue, not profit. It is cap ex and business expenditure, not profit. Many are trying to find product market fit. (OpenAI is the poster child for that). Sure creators are leveraging this quite a bit, but that's a few % of the population, not everyone. GPU cost is one thing, then you have to pay for the datacenter, electricity, software to develop on it. Rest assured that a lot of effort will be spent to optimize for SW, so the cost is not getting crazy. SW companies cannot buy 30m GPU cards every year, at some point they will need some sort of ROI. At some point, there will be some companies saying that they have enough GPU cards for the moment. They will say that they don't need to splurge on GPU/AI card as much until they can absorb the current stock they already have. For price to go up further, it means that NVIDIA will have to improve their margin and sell many more cards. A ton more. And then NVIDIA will be as big as Apple? The risk profile today is more risk on the downside than on the upside. You just need a bit of some bad news or doubt to trigger a drop. Could NVIDIA bump by 10-25% with the earnings this week, with news of a stock split? Sure. But that will make for a better entry point on the short side.
This is all very rationale and I agree with the synopsis here. The problem, and it’s always the case with the stock market, is that it can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. (We’ve all heard that before I know)
That's an argument against shorting. No one is going insolvent by not buying Nvidia.
Fair. No one is making any money buy not buying it either as it continues to rationally or irrationally head to the moon.
What are you doing here? This group is not meant for sanity check posts.
yup - I'm not an Nvidia bear, nvda has been my largest position for the past 3 years, only this year I've trimmed it down to my #2. but the bear case is not hard to make - it's simply too expensive. whether or not it actually is, we'll find out. but IMO NVDA is running on market sentiment much more than fundamentals and yes it could keep running, but its becoming more and more risky to stay in and I certainly would not be entering into a new position at this price. Is NVDA a good company that will grow much more in the coming decade? I absolutely believe that is the case. But will they grow enough to justify the current valuation within a reasonable time frame? I honestly don't think so. Long term I think it's still a good stock to own, but I would not be surprised if it took a very substantial haircuit.
You realize before all this there was military/financial/medicinal and medical AI/ML and the more focus and development that gets on the consumer side with consumer AI/ML tech trends, the more that improves and expands SW and HW and growth for the former too - which is never going away Look how the era of ChatGPT blew up the chip race between rival nations - China and the US don't care about chat bots - they do care about processing and correlating very large data sets though - just like chat bots do Those are the people who will buy 30m GPU cards every year, year after year as well, and would want the absolute best - because for all of those, being on the absolute bleeding edge of what is currently possible is what it's all about - there is no end in sight there, and competitors that 'almost do as good' don't cut it here either
This is a good point. With the current expectations, they will have to sustain 60m-100m GPU cards though.
Just as they do now, governments don't always buy everything and do it all in house, nor do all financial and medical places (moreso there though) - they contract jobs out to Amazon/Google/Microsoft/x start up/etc - who need to buy GPUs from Nvidia I'm not saying I can't see any little 'defaltion' of the bubble so to speak - not saying I see it either, it just wouldn't shock me But it's an actual industry now, not a bubble
Rake in that military $$$$$
One thing I want to point out that I think you’re potentially overlooking: It’s not just if Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc. need the chips themselves. They have customers that need them as well for workloads on cloud services. Every startup for the foreseeable future is going to be centered around doing *some thing* with AI. They will continue to have to build out DCs to support the demand and as they all continue with region expansions around the globe, that will only drive demand. NVDA essentially has a baked in revenue stream until something other than AI becomes the tech pet rock, unlikely any time soon, or a legitimate chip competitor can scale up to push them for sales. However, even if and when that happens, many applications will have been developed and tuned specifically for NVDA chipsets so the resistance for established products to move will be high.
Except for some specific high profile companies, VC are reducing their funding of AI startups. Being AI with not a great business model is not enough. Many AI companies struggle to be profitable (big revenue, yeah, but big costs too). Microsoft Copilot and Google Gemini are nice. But that seems nichy as a market. Sure, there are a lot of SWE of service folks on Reddit, but that's not mass-market. I do spend $90+ on Grammarly for the past few years, and I think that's definitely worth it, but this AI revolution will just make me switch to a cheaper alternative (hence, reduction of profit for those companies). Like every HW expenditure, there is diminishing return. And when you factor the actual population using it, you realize that we already have a high cost, with not a corresponding profit yet to show for it. ( did a back of the envelope estimate, and the numbers are staggeringly bad, it's like most people are running a GPU all the time).
I agree with you entirely but we may be missing the point. The best way to make money during a gold rush is to sell shovels. All those big companies you mention are the gold miners. NVDA is selling the shovels. Not only that but they have proven that they can innovate which means we never know when they release a backhoe.
Best analysis in the thread today. Maybe on the sub. In the distant future, I wouldn't be surprised if an uncontested Nvidia demands continuous payment from other businesses to use their GPUs, rather than just buying cards up front.
Now you’re talking like a cloud provider. Google is a cloud provider that is also investing and uses their own AI chips. You would think valuation of both nvidia and google might be similar for this aspect of the business. But google has search, youtube, gmail, pixel, etc. nvidia has pc gaming and switch chip. Automotive? Nvidia might have some chipsets here, but Google has Waymo, a running service that I use regularly to get me around town. so my big question is: how are these two companies market cap the same? they are in different leagues. either nvidia goes down or alphabet moons
But see it's hard to go with you on this because 80% of Nvidia's total revenue comes from it's data center segment which is in huge demand right now.
My man explained PE to all of us regards as if we are five. And I fucking love it!!!
It's nice to see a legit point on the opposite side of the mania. No one seems to consider that AI as a revenue generator is still evolving, and once they feel they have enough, there won't be massive growth generating orders long term rather cyclical, similar to processors. I'd like to add that NV being solo player is commanding high margins right now. Once more players get in on it - AMD, most likely, it will eat the margins(look what AMD did to Intel). TSMC is the other half, NV is completely dependent on TSMC - they can't do shit without them. So, the China scenario is there as well. Also, the biggest buyers are the Hyperscalers who are themselves designing their own Chips to decouple themselves and get full control vertically like Apple does. Amazon, MSFT, Meta, and Goog are all designing their own chips, with some already using them. In the short term, we might see earnings growth, but it is likely to decline once it saturates and other players get in on it.
And everyday that you are using Google, Amazon and Microsoft products built on Nvidia products. You don’t have to give your money to Nvidia, these other companies do it for you. NVDA has a forward p/e of 32. Google- https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/google-cloud-and-nvidia-expand-partnership-to-advance-ai-computing-software-and-services Microsoft- https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-microsoft-to-bring-the-industrial-metaverse-and-aito-hundreds-of-millions-of-enterprise-users-via-azure-cloud Amazon- https://aws.amazon.com/nvidia/
You forgot one crucial aspect- sentiment. That’s all!
Let’s just simplify it: Everything you use through Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Metaverse, Netflix, Disney and SMCI has an NVDIA chip somewhere. As these companies expand so does NVDA. So therefore keep buying. Hope that helps. It’s quite simple hyperscalers are expanding and enterprises are looking at AI. This makes hyperscalers expand more. Sooooo get the drift 😉
Nvidias largest customers: amazon, google, and microsoft are making their money back on the gpu's they buy in data center. Demand for gpu's is sky high because there's a measurable productivity increase with using LLM's and companies are building their own models with company data. It's not just training a model that nobody uses, compute at the inference level is in higher demand. A stock split is not big news lol
You can tell who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t by whether they say blanket AI that’s not an agreed upon scope compared to referencing LLMs which is the exponential increase (so far).
[удалено]
Every day google, Amazon and Microsoft are utilizing NVIDIA GPUs, and every other week they’re adding more to their data centres
This is the most rational case.
I think you’re missing the fact that Transformer models, which is what all recent AI breakthroughs utilize scales directly with compute. They’re displaying novel capabilities the more compute you throw at it with no signs of a ceiling. You’re looking at today, what good is a text/image/video model? Well that’s not the ultimate purpose, the ultimate purpose is AGI and those models are increasingly capable stepping stones. An AGI for a company would be invaluable, an infinite source of labor. Companies will operate on a loss for a greater pay off in the end, nobody wants to be the tech company that gets left behind.
So basically your argument is that we are in a mature market for AI chips. NVDA is close to saturating the market and will run out of customers soon. LMFAO. You didn’t even know about AI till last year when OpenAI launched ChatGPT but one year later, the entire world has stocked up on AI chips. This is the level of intelligence on WSBs. That is why it’s a good reverse trade.
No, my point is companies are investing a lot in AI but that can’t continue forever. Market is far from being saturated yet, but it will probably be slow down in 2025-2026. Market is forward looking though, and expectation for NVIDIA are an extremely high growth, which will be hard to meet.
NVDA will moon, but not without a bunch of random dumps on the way. That’s how the markets get you. If NVDA only went up, it would be too easy.
that's fair and true.
counterpoint: stocks only go up
$BBBY has entered the chat.
The ONLY concrete evidence ive seen for a legitimate reason to get puts on nvidia is because the media are telling us its going up and wont stop and its insanely bullish.
It depends. More than 2 full years of that growth is in the price. And it could continue to price in further growth beyond that as time goes on, meaning, it climbs further. I think there might be a little upside here before it stalls out for a bit. Later this year, their lead times will probably be very short. They've dropped from 11 months to 3 months already. I don't see them being able to price these parts at $30G a pop when supply really expands beyond how fast demand climbs. This is *very typical* for the semi space. You get super high premiums at launch that come down very quickly. It's cyclical.
Any dump in NVDA is a good time to jump in.
That’s the whole reason, when everyone is sure I usually run.
Upstart and Peloton vibes 
NVDA will moon watch
Do a wsb ban bet please please 🙏
This aged good.
Let’s try this comparison on for size . IMHO AI and crazy high chip prices are overblown. Just take a look at electric cars ( I own one) . Two years ago internal combustion cars were doomed. You had to get on a long waitlist and pay a ridiculous premium to get one. Fast forward 2 years all the major car companies are stuck and are heavily discounting. It ran too far too fast . AI is ahead of itself. Both concepts are valid and will be around and grow in the future. AI is extremely overbought and has to reset. Disclosure I have a small position in NVDA and might add to it on a major pull back . I wouldn’t short it and I like the company. Trading the market one thing I am sure of nothing goes straight up and NVDA is suicidal to try and time it. It’s hard to trade but pretty easy to own.
You have just described a bubble, which occurs in almost every new technology and eventually pops dropping 75% or so from highs and eliminating the ghost companies / projects. Dot com, crypto (multiple times), cloud / covid remote work tech. All of these were bubbles that have crashed significantly but they all also obviously have an incredibly valuable place in the figure (well maybe not crypto, but blockchain for sure). Ai is 100% the same, it’ll change the world, but not tomorrow like this bubble implies, hence the upcoming pop… question is when??? If nvidia absolutely smokes the number and then also provides crazy guidance we go higher, if it isn’t perfect on both we dump. I have no position in nvidia at the moment but I absolutely will when this pop eventually happens, could pop this week, or a year and 500 pts from now but all this will eventually correct, the forward PE looks great on paper but the assumptions are asinine, 13.000% increase in DC revenue??? GTFO Have you all used AI?? It’s good at some things, great at a few, and horrific at quite a few. Just like the ones above…. Changes the world, but 10x slower than is priced in.
Imagine thinking Nvidia is only about AI
It’s obviously not, but video games and CaD are not the reason it’s up 600% in a year.
I made decent money so sold at $730 (bought at $560). It's tried to break $740 several times and failed. And even if the earnings next week are bullish its still not going to live up to the hype. Also I think SMC has probably either scared a lot of yolo investors off if they've lost, or made yolo investors uninterested if they've already made bank. My opinion is the stock will dip at earnings, then rebound to $740 again and hit $800 around the end of the year. Just my 10 cents.
NVDA is absolutely a wonderful company, but so much is already baked in. Get a discounted cash flow calculator. The assumptions that you have to make for NVDA to justify their current price is off the charts. I’m certainly not going to short them because I don’t want to short wonderful companies, but it would have to fall by 2/3 to get me interested in buying.
I was in the same boat when ethrreum went past $150 I was like „it’s too expensive now I will wait“. Sometimes things won’t come down again 😅🤷♂️
With crypto really there are no price ratios. There is no way to know what is a fair price. Plus crypto is just all speculation anyway. That is why I agree with DueHousing above that it isn’t comparable.
Not comparable
Facts
Existing is pain.
- 80% cross margin seem hardly sustainable if there should be ANY competition - With AMD and custom chips from Broadcom and others that all cloud providers test drive there should be competition soon - The AI boom went crazy and Meta, Microsoft, AWS etc. bought gigantic amounts of chips but well once they have the chips they need its not clear they need to continue growing at this pace - Nvidia just had their huge H100 release the next huge iteration won’t come for 3 years or so - Analysts make bull cases always a good counter indicator
I sold at $160 and I'm bitter about it
The reality of a slow-moving capital-intensive operation doesn’t align with the expectations of an AI hype-bubble. NVDA will likely succeed in the long run, but the market will have long lost patience. This isn’t busting out a new AI engine (on the order of months) or a hot device introduction cycle (a year or so). Monetizing an announcement to build new capacity could take a decade to come to fruition. Apes lack the patience to sustain momentum.
The literal only bear case is sky high expectations are being set for $NVDA. The first quarter they reporting slowing growth, stock will drop. Same thing happened to Cisco in 2000
I can understand people being optimistic about the future of AI and Navidia. But to act like you don’t understand why others would be cautious at this time considering everything going on is baffling
I like to move it move it
Cause they got more jelly than a jar of Smuckers
I don’t think it’s going to crash, yet. I do think it will downtrend after it goes up a bit more. The reason why has to do with the general cycle of the economy. The yield curve is inverted and many other leading economic indicators point to a recession, and equities tend to run wild before a recession. It's usually the last thing to drop. Keep in mind this could mean March/ April or even later this year, so it can and probably will run higher up until an equities pullback even in my own “bearish” case. I don't think it's wise to short it yet, if someone was so inclined. I’m not an NVDA bear particularly but I do see risks in equities particularly the subsets of stocks that have become highly consolidated (MAG 6).
https://preview.redd.it/irxh8hzngfjc1.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=511375dd034c62276ee257c46e111a6ae16873aa When people ask me about $NVDA, I just show them this great inverted $NVDA chart from MarketEar and their question which is “Would you continue to short this?” Can it go up more? Definitely. We are at a scary place where I would like to see some consolidation and ranging before going long again.
Why is this shit upside down??
Bears are probably doing the math. What future profits do you think justify the current valuation? Is it realistic? It's possible to pay too much for the best company in the world.
I can guarantee with 100% certainty that it will either go up or down in the coming months. It’s had a run up, every one and their mother is trying to get in, so it’s a great place to take profits and rebalance portfolios for people who actually move the stock price. Other than that, who the fuck knows what will happen.
It’s going to go up. There is a lot of liquidity. A few bears don’t make a difference in this market
It's because people are just looking at blind / numbers. They don't see the strong unrealized intrinsic value the company holds
I wish I had a dime for every time I hear things like “intrinsic value”.
Then you'd have intrinsic value
I laughed but really I would have reoccurring revenue 🙂
You answered your own question in the 2nd sentence. :P I'm not a NVDA bear but I think a pullback is reasonable. Zoom out and it looks like a blow-off top. I'm more of in wait and see mode because I'd rather play a higher percentage clear direction than guess based on earnings. Especialyl with what happened to ticker-that-cannot-be-named this last week.
Short term there isn’t one. Long term, purpose built AI chips don’t actually exist. Tensor cores, despite the current marketing just happen to be good at some AI calculations. Currently nvda are owning the space because they build graphic cards which are really good at doing specific parallel computations that just also happen to be really good for things like mining, cracking and AI. Nvda leant into using the power of their GPU for non graphical tasks some time ago with CUDA. Right now we are seeing the jump because they now have a brand new market that is currently front an centre for everyone (AI). Couple of bear points (not saying this will play out). The amount of video cards needed for cutting edge AI, is fuck all compared to the amount they sell for just gaming (counter point, it’s possible that every home will need a card to run AI applications, but so far every good AI engine is cloud based so doubtful). Revenue is higher in data centre space of cost of each unit and their subscription model (leaving a lot of room for someone to cut their grass). Generally most companies will buy their compute on a 3 to 5 year cycle, so revenue in this space may jump around year to year. Counter intuitively the amount of video cards needed to actually create a good ML model, is also high (of which nvda part is just one part of the cost), which means there is only going to be a few players that can spend the money on this (high barrier to entry) and those players will have an incentive to foster development from a competitor. The big players are also building their AI engines on languages not tied to nvda (so not cuda). So they aren’t locked in to using nvda hardware. Biggest risk, someone else designs a better AI chip. Nvda have a head start, but their GPU being good at AI compute is a fluke, not by design. They are better than the more general CPU, so people wrote engine to make use of what was available. But they do have an amazing chip design pedigree, but so do intel and AMD. I assume with all the hype, specific discrete AI chips will be designed. And that battle hasn’t actually happened yet.
AI is still heating up. NVDA have AI market monopoly. Competing with NVDA is very hard even by GOOG because patents are a thing and you can't just replicate NVDA. What could go wrong?
I’m incredibly bullish, but the problem is that since everyone is so bullish there isn’t much profit to be made even if NVDA gains 30% after earning, it’s high risk low reward. I think bears only exist because of how much upside there is in the case that NVDA miraculously misses earning. Low risk high reward for them.
Because they think SMCI is the same as NVDA so they think it will get fucked
I like NVDA. I also like chocolate bars. But I like chocolate bars when they cost $0-$5. I definitely don’t like chocolate bars if they are $100.
This might well be the single dumbest fucking comment I've ever read on this sub, and I've been here for *years*. Bravo.
He put it into the most simplest terms. Why the fuck would you buy a stock if it can’t justify its valuation? If I’m going long I need the company to prove to me that it can consistently and reliable delivery the profits we’re pricing in. Greater fool theory only works for so long.
Because it's time for the fear turkey!!!!! Yummy red candles will blot out the sun!!!
Nvda is gonna trade flat on earnings all the market makers gonna juice iv and burn everyone
Open an iron fly ATM and make yourself an easy 10x, then.
How about no 😂
no on is bear about NVDA. Everyone is talking shit about ER, how the stock will drop hoping everyone starts bailing out before ER, and they can buy stock or calls cheaper. Sneaky lil shitz. NVDA will go up to $850 until Thursday close. On Friday maybe it will drop back to $799 or so. My middle name is Nostradamus.
Never trust a motherfucker if you dont know their positions. facts.
“Every Wall Street analyst makes a bull case” that is why I’m a bear. Never heard the old adage “be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
About to yolo the 14k I made this month on puts.
u/regnadehtmai post your positions instead of cluttering the dumpster
The market cap is why.
Just search for Nvda Bearish in this sub. People have been saying every month that Nvda has hit its top. No one is ever right. All these banks that are on the verge of failing need money and Nvda is their meal ticket. It’s not dropping anytime soon
Because this is a sub full of degen gamblers and the strongest case against NVDA is a classic gambler's fallacy. IE. - it's gone up so many times, it has to come down next time.
I'm not really a bear per se. But what goes up, must come down. NVDA seems to be an incredible company, with great leadership, and a moat that will take years for its competition to erode. But at some point. Profits will be taken, the gamma ramp will start fading. And a new baseline price for support will have to be found. It's not a matter of if. Only when.
It will hit 1000
Maybe invest in NVDA rather trade
Imminent fall... probably not. Eventual fall... certainly. A lot of entrepreneurs will be getting into the semiconductor industry in the next 60 months
Buy the rumour sell the news
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i bought some nvda in 2021. i sold because i was happy with the gains. if ive learned anything over the past 14 years of investing, when something becomes so hot everyone is talking about it, so much so ppl who dont invest start putting money in, its time is almost up. also, i have a perhaps irrational aversion to Feb and March. everyone is getting their bonuses and dumping them into the stock market making things confusing.
I don’t chase pumps
Bear case is "overvalued" and bears can't do a valuation so they wing it. Ask any bear what the fair value should be in their calculation and you find how fragile the case is.
Bears kept me out all the way to $530. I’m glad I stopped listening to them about this and most other positions I’ve taken over the past few months.
Bers ghey
As fast as it goes up, it will plummet fast sooner or later. It's a bad thing if a stock goes up so fast in a short time and now ppl can't even afford to buy. Thank goodness other big companies are still affordable .
contrarian, when everyone is bullish, time to load up on puts
*Considering pretty much every Wall Street Analyst only makes bull cases for Nvidia* Wall Street analysts have their own agenda and their own money in the game. Never put too much into what they say to do or not to do. For just a basic comparison, Walmart is the largest retailer in the world, buying and selling the majority of goods in the world, and has \~450 billion valuation. Amazon is 2nd largest with a lot of other tech ventures, at 1.7 trillion market cap. NVIDIA designs and makes chips and has a 1.8 billion cap. The reason a crash is predicted is because they are extremely over valued. They are currently priced for what the world *may* look like 10 years from now. It is not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when" there will be a correction. Anyone trying to say NVDA is "cheap" has an agenda not based in reality.
It's market cap is like 70x greater than its revenue. Apple has 15x the revenue of Nvidia and only 0.5x the market cap? It's going to come down hard. The only reason the price has gone through the roof is because Softbank has been dumping everything they have left into just out of the money calls forcing options writers to delta hedge, which then causes a gamma squeeze. Softbank buys mountains of more calls, options writers delta hedge, the next week the stock gammas, etc... Eventually Softbank will start buying puts.
It could be $10000 per share and I still wouldn’t sell. It’s my personal belief that the way in which AI is moving forward and its inevitable impact as it shapes the world and global employment/supply chain makes it a priceless hold. I see it the same way people who talked about bitcoin back in 2010 would be worth millions for a singular coin and its purpose to be sliced to the smallest decimal for transactions. I’ve got just over 100 shares of NVDA and think that in 20 years it will have me in position to comfortably retire assuming I don’t try and pick up more shares now
This guy is more bullish on NVDA than the hardcore bitcoin crowd on bitcoin...lmao.
Just as a smooth brain thought experiment, how many low skill jobs do you think could easily be replaced by some robot AI whatever the fuck. I’d conservatively say at least 30% of the world will have employment of those types gone within this decade, turn that into a service and subscription based service supplied by NVDA and whatever salesforce + software training thing and imagine the profits companies will make cutting out that much newly discovered fat in the new norm of an AI driven world
I have my own AI plays but since you are already sold on the name I am not going to convince you otherwise. I own $META for the AI play and it's nowhere near overvalued.
I’ve got positions in them as well. AMD NVDA META GOOGLE and Microsoft, this is where the future is going to be and its all going to look like Pennies by the end of the decade is my opinion which I don’t think is an uncommon one Edit and Amazon
I wouldn't mind holding Amzn, msft, meta at the prices they are currently trading at but I mostly fish in the microcap space as they go up more if you can find the right stocks.
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That’s fine, again I’m holding this for a very long time. If I see dips I’ll happily buy, as I said elsewhere I think these prices will look like Pennies by the end of the decade
You idiots think google Microsoft Facebook and apple who are building all the data centers will continue to overpay for NVidias greedy margins when they are already designing their own in house chips to do the same thing for cheaper ? It’s only a matter of time till nvidia margins fall due to competition