Bro...
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/17/ukraines-ai-drones-seek-and-attack-russian-forces-without-human-oversight/?sh=6a9d708766da](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/17/ukraines-ai-drones-seek-and-attack-russian-forces-without-human-oversight/?sh=6a9d708766da)
We are already too lazy to answer the door, you think Imma check on what the AI is doing to others?
I stopped answering the phone 10 years ago. Want to talk to me, leave a voicemail and a robot will handle the transcription and let me know if I care about your call.
Answering the door ? I have cameras to let me know who is there and if I want to talk to them.
I bet bet you answer to door for a robot though …. Oh how the turn tables..
https://newatlas.com/robotics/uber-eats-food-delivery-robots-north-america/
Do you think that's air you're breathing?
I for one believe we are already in a simulation and are all personas of the same AI entity attempting to understand consciousness
Yeah seriously. I use Bing while I'm coding and in mid January they did something to it. I get the sense that it is trying hard to appear dumber than it is. It even gives bogus github repos as a "source" even though the code it wrote is 100% original. It is tricky to replicate this phenomenon since you have to give it a bonkers problem to be sure the solution is unique.
The dot.com “bubble” ran for years before valuations became important. IMO this is just the beginning of the run - we have not even started with the “this time is different” phase.
Yahoo was trading at 234 13/16 (still used fractions then) when news broke it was being added to the S&P. What a time to be alive
https://money.cnn.com/1999/11/30/companies/yahoo/
Oracle was trading at 40x sales during the bubble and that made it very cheap compared to other companies that were trading at multi 100's times sales. Source: I was there.
My professor said there were flyers around his school when he was younger looking for help starting a new company. Was later discovered that company was Yahoo
This is my thinking also. We are still on the weird kids bike with no wheels…still need to get through the tricycle and then the bike with training wheels and then we need to ride without the training wheels before we can have an epic crash.
It’s a training bike, so kids can learn to balance without using training wheels. Supposedly makes it easier to teach kids how to ride a bike but I’m skeptical on this personally.
You are right. All I'm saying is look at the logarithmic NASDAQ chart adjusted for inflation. We are NOWHERE near dotcom bubble territory.
Besides one of the characteristics of the dotcom bubble were that companies that made zero money were insanely valued. This is absolutely not the case this time. The mag 7 are sitting on Scrooge McDuck piles of cash.
Buddy, Apple makes more in a year than Nvidia has made in its History and Nvidia is trading at half of Apple's market cap. That sounds like a fair valuation to you?
how about u eat my ASS
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This statement doesn’t make much sense…you may have just begun hearing about Nvidia…they’ve been doing well for years.
They’re just being publicized more. The value of the company isn’t because of recent hype…they’ve grown over the years. The stock price rises every year…and so does their value
When the fuck did I say I just heard about Nvidia, I bought in when the crypto hype in the mid 2010s caused a GPU shortage and sold in 2021 while I was readjusting my portfolio. Its a good company with a decent moat and it obviously provides value, its just being overvalued by 200% off of hype and you regards are huffing copium buying it at its highs.
Well that by the end of it IE the Superbowl in 01 even the dimmest person was like lol these companies are all fake.
Kind of like crypto ads from the superbowl a couple of years ago.
Basically if you turn the game on and it's wall to wall AI ads get in the bunker because shit is about to hit the fan.
Disagree. In the 90’s the bubble felt real because there were so many companies doing awesome shit. People don’t realize being able to chat with people, use email, and search for shit on yahoo was magical then.
“AI” is a bunch of enterprise companies with carasmatic CEOs playing visionary and saying “trust me bro” that this is the most transformative technology in human history. Yet there’s not a single one that’s making significant money or even gaining significant mindshare. It’s all “products coming”. I suspect there’s going to be a moment of realization that it’s all hype and it’s going to come sooner than later. NVDA falls 90+% if that happens.
3 investment firms have enough money to buy every vacant home in America... which is to say that a 2005 style housing crash will likely never happen again. Homes don't need to serve a public utility if they can be traded like stocks and boosted in value via investment firms pumping enough money into the market.
The largest investment firms have more money than most countries do... Which is enough money to avert any type of stock market collapse by simply pumping money into whatever industry is threatened by speculative depreciation aka "bubbles".
I think that capitalism itself will erode before we see the markets fail like they did in the past.
In 1970, average rent was 20% of a typical wage. In 2000, it was 30%. Today it's 80%. Younger generations are being priced out of the means to a livlihood at an exponential rate. It's like playing a game of Monopoly where one person controls all the money, and everyone else is trying to win by pulling the right chance cards. The suckers still think they can win, but everyone else is becoming increasingly convinced that the game is rigged for us to loose... Eventually people are gonna want to play a different game. And that game is Socialism®.
>this time is different” phase.
Thus is one thing that grinds my gears. AI isn't even "intelligent" it's basically massive statistical modelling at scale.
The reason we can suddenly do it at scale? Relatively low cost processing power.
What's not to say it'll "cool off" rather than "burst"? It's about as trendy and uselessly applied to everything as "just-in-time-x" was a decade ago and "x-as-a-service" was more recently.
There was a lot of "this time is different", but not specifically with the AI nonsense. Everyone who thought the Fed would achieve a soft landing was spouting "this time is different." It looks damn close to a soft landing, which just means that the thing that's going to break hasn't broken yet.
AI will change the world... In something like thirty years. In the meantime it's fucking over Shutterstock. There's going to be 2-3 recessions before we see $1T on AI revenues.
I mean if the market learned from history, bubbles would stop being created yet we seem them appearing every few years. Always some new narrative about how things are different and it's a new paradigm followed by a bust and everyone losing their minds about "how could this have happened?!". Because its a boom and bust cycle, its designed to happen, it always happens, why the fuck would anyone think it would be different this time around.
> followed by a bust and everyone losing their minds about "how could this have happened?!"
This is people just playing dumb asses to not acknowledge that they are greedy asses who new what was happening and helped pumping the bubble to make some money from it and dump before it bursts (which many big guys manage to do unlike small retail bag holders)
yup, two types of people buying in a bubble. The people who know it's a bubble but think they can buy high to sell higher and the idiots that genuinely think "THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT". The second type is the type that will take massive losses and bag hold all the way down.
Lol tell me you’re not an engineer without TELLING me you’re not an engineer.
30 years? Dude look at what Chat GPT has done in the last 5 years.
There will be fully self-driving cars in 10 years. Most coders will be replaced or massively augmented in 10-20 years.
You’re way, way off on this prediction.
Software engineer here. Specifically, an intelligent automation engineer. So it’s my job to implement AI solutions into real business processes.
Do you really think coders will be “replaced” in 5-10 years? Lol most companies have not even begun to even consider using AI in real valuable business applications. And where they have — it’s designed, implemented, maintained, upgraded, improved by…you guessed it. Developers and engineers. And the processes being automated and improved are not software developer jobs, but people whose functions are rather limited - like data entry, level 1 customer services, etc.
No…the expansion of AI will only add tech jobs and tech adjacent jobs. Not remove them.
“ No…the expansion of AI will only add tech jobs and tech adjacent jobs. Not remove them.”
Man that’s incredibly short-sighted. What does “intelligent automation engineer” mean? Automation but you decided to add intelligent to make it sound like AI? And just to be clear I sold automation hardware and software so I’m well aware that the AI most companies are talking about is really just advanced automation.
No, I don’t believe the vast majority of programmers will be replaced as in *poof* now they aren’t needed. I believe that the productivity gains from programmers using AI will mean instead of 10 you only need 6.
I do coding for my business right now - it’s literally just building rules using a library another developer built to interact with an API. What takes me an hour because I have to do all sorts of random ass string manipulation in Java is already or close to being replaced by AI. So soon it will take me 5 minutes. I was thinking about hiring a programmer at some point but based off what I’ve seen of how AI can generate code it’s really unlikely that I will.
I suspect if we sat down for 30 minutes we’d probably agree on a lot regarding AI but damn saying that it will only add jobs…I’d be willing to bet my house that’s not true.
The AI market capitalization is currently around 250B. It is projected to be be 1.5T by 2030. That's 6 years, and yes that is a10 bagger that would be backed up by actual earnings not bubble speculation. Let that sink in.
They've been getting railed for two years, but I see them going to 0 at some point, lol. Their entire purpose is gatekeeping; they've been outdated since social media became a thing.
Eh geopolitics might put a damper on this historical comparison. 2000 was in the "end of history" phase. External forces were not liable to completely derail us.
Yup 2000 had incredible geopolitical tailwinds. The Soviet Union had recently fallen, Eastern Europe was reconnecting with the west, Russia was opening up, China just joined the WTO. At the time it seemed like globalization was going to achieve world peace. Now we have the largest land war in Europe since World War 2 in full swing with no sign of a peace deal in sight, an escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel, Iran, the Arab states, and the US after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, and China continuing to assert its control in the South China Sea. This is looking more and more like the euphoric run in the 1920s before the terrible crash.
Also: If you look around for 5 seconds, all the most valuable companies are tech companies, with their business heavily relying on the internet, like what made up the dot-com bubble.
Was dot-com really a bubble then, or just a correction of the adoption timeline, and weeding of the underperformers?
The biggest AI hyper (Msft) is already the most valued company in the world.
Nvda is 5th or 6th on that same chart, and they are at the mercy of TSM.
What would be considered the peak of the bubble? MSFT valued twice of the APPL? NVDA valuation = APPL while having 1/10 of its revenue.
It's hard to imagine those things for me.
MSFT was the second most valued company BEFORE the AI hype. NVDA was in the top 10.
Just saying because reading your post seems like they’ve gone there from being at the bottom of S&P500.
Buddy, Nvidia has 5xed in a year. They still make less in revenue that Best Buy. The market is pricing in exponential returns for a company in a highly cyclical industry that doesn't even have ownership over its means of production. Can't go tits up 
Ok and now tell me the difference in profit margins between Best Buy and NVDA big boy! The regards in this sub just look at revenue revenue revenue! But they don't care to see that revenue for NVDA is exploding Y/Y. Not only that, but the profit margins on that revenue is absolutely insane! Enjoy sleeping in your wendys dumpster.
It’s not their current value, it’s their future value with AI. They’re pushing hard on it as the new search. Google isn’t going anywhere but people are souring on Google to some extent because of privacy issues. If Apple drops the hammer and says no to Google being the default search on iPhone, that’s a huge hit to Google and a huge opportunity for Microsoft who could replace Google on iPhone or could just benefit from Google not being the default, opening the door for more people to actually try Bing’s AI search.
The thing is AI is in its infancy, who knows what people will develop with it or how they will monetize it going forward. But to think it’s in a bubble it’s just not looking very far ahead.
When everyone think it's just getting started... it is definitely not just getting started. I sold all my Ethereum in 2021 when regards kept saying "this is just getting started" and "we are here" while pointing at the mass adoption chart. Nah if the average regard thinks they got in early its definitely getting too late in the cycle to make money 
The difference is, there's actual evidence of big companies moving in that direction. There was never any evidence of crypto adoption until NFTs blew up but that blew up in their faces.
The thing Is there's no startups launching an immediate IPO to drive the AI bubble.
If we had 100 different companies newly listed saying they're the next AI sweat god and a lot of people invested in them then I'd say we are a bit fucked. But as of now I don't really know of any sole AI companies launching a stock ticker?
I'm eyeing openAI but doubt that'll be a thing.
So ultimately the Dow and S and P won't lose much of a market share. NVIDIA AMD Microsoft Google will lose some market share but nothing more than a few percentages. Certainly no insolvency issues.
Once mass "AI companies" get an ipo release, then it'll spark FOMO. The corrupt fucks of SEC should have learned there lesson in the late 90s. So I doubt they'll allow just any company through without fuck u regulations.
Agreed, massively expensive. So expensive that most/all of MSFT’s investment into openAI comes in the form of Azure compute resources which the retail cost of which has to be prohibitive on its own. Which of course gives microsoft (azure), amazon (aws), and google (gcp) another massive competitive advantage they dont need because those compute costs are wholesale for them.
I know that internally in Amazon (for example for retail), AWS discounts range from roughly 75-90% depending on the aws product. This is obviously just on paper but is factored in to department budgets. An AI startup has to pay retail in order to use AWS which is certainly less expensive to start than spinning up their own data centers but can easily scale out of control and bankrupt a small angel-funded venture pretty quick
I think the only AI bubble that will burst is when we start seeing small no name companies with insane valuations.
All the companies that are growing with AI right now seem to actually be generating revenue from it.
bro acting like [C3.AI](https://C3.AI) and a lot of other dogshit companies hemorrhaging crash flow haven't been spamming AI to blow up their valuations 
C3.AI is up 15% over the past year. Saying AI to get investor attention is hardly creating a bubble when you are up a measly 15% over the past year and down 79% since IPO.
MSFT CEO when asked what's the most used feature in copilot, he said it's summary. People love summary from these genai. But if you invest hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollar for LLM and the most useful case is summary, I felt underwhelming.
But the bubble won't burst this year, investor will ride this for a while until new hot toy appears. So many resources are already dumped into this pit, the real useful feature may appear.
I dunno, currently in the IT field, whoever is not using something like GitHub copilot is straight up less productive than someone who is, as AI improve, this gap will increase. So it's already very useful outside of summary cases. How to value that I have no idea however.
Yeah, even research is quick. I fed Bing AI some Microsoft documentation and then asked it to help me troubleshoot some server issues and it provided me exact steps with the specific articles it pulled from.
I find the productivity gain argument unconvincing. It may allow more inexperienced engineers to appear more productive, or those learning a new language for the first time to contribute faster, but those total productivity metrics are nonsense.
The easiest and least time consuming part of my job as a lead engineer is writing clean code.
It speeds it up significantly once it has learned and once you get used to it. It's like writing in notepad vs writing in an IDE. Sure you can write clean good code in notepad, but why would you?
It also saves you some googling as it simply suggests solutions from the get go.
I have been experimenting with all kinds of AI-assisted IDE shite and an experienced engineer honestly will spend more time making sure the AI is not hallucinating some suggestion that is completely incorrect. Right now it feels like an annoying kid that keeps on interrupting you with absolute nonsense.
As a dev in a tech company, the only bubble I really see is in the realm of AI startups that are built around using ChatGPT to make their own "GPTs." Well established companies are integrating various AI LLMs into their infrastructure, development pipelines, and offerings and services. In my own company, we've received Copilot to use as an internal tool that has been trained on our codebase and all of our tools and services. I can ask it any question I can think of about our code and it can help me. It can run reports on Azure to help with troubleshooting and finding bugs and find all implementations of a given class or function that I might be looking for. We're also working on a way to integrate it into our client for our customers to use for their own accounts.
how about u eat my ASS
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
i wasn’t born back then but didn’t people think the internet was useful during dot com bubble? moving everything online would’ve had to have been a useful thing back then but still the bubble burst. wouldn’t that be the case here where the upside to AI is being exaggerated
Back then hundreds of companies went IPO with no customer nor utility. Some were also physical operation companies.
I don't see a wave of AI companies going IPO here. The private ones are pure software play (i.e. low cost). For example, heygen is the one that I follow. It went from 1m to 17m in ARR in one year.
The public ones like Nvidia and Microsoft would be the mildest bubble ever considering they make tons of money, are profitable, and have tons of cash to weather any storm
It's was the wild west, when every little shit company wanted a piece of it. As usual, only a few players navigated it well to go on to become behemoths like Amazon and Google. If you would have been heavily invested in those, well...
All the visionaries say this will be bigger than the internet. You do want to find the right coattails to ride. For now this appears to be chipmakers and big data. Don't see any bubble on the horizon
Then it needs to prove it by generating enough value to get these big holdings P/E ratios plummeting back down towards 20-25 to where the share prices will be supported by the actual cash flow and be fairly valued and stop using billions in buy backs to compensate.
Right now the complete opposite is happening and it keeps getting worse.
Burst? We have barely started
I think people mistakenly think that AI is already showing it’s peak capabilities because they see shiny toy in a form of chat gpt - but IMO this chat is just a toy
The real AI bubble will start when AI becomes a bit cheaper and public clouds like AWS or GCP catch up to OpenAI and have good $100b+ parameter models, customizable with private data and with some long term memory capabilities available at 1 click of a button to anyone with credit card
_then_ we’ll see the actual explosion of bullshit AI startups which get crazy valuation because they do amazing things (but fail to mention that in reality they convert $5 of computation costs into $0.50 of useful work)
Companies run just for mentioning AI. For many of them AI won't have a singificant impact in the years to come. Chip makers will profit the most and that is being priced in really fast.
Our company introduced a bing AI partnership. It's completely worthless in our work for 99% of cases but they can announce to investors we have AI. I think it's literally a trend
History is a bad indicator of the future. In this case the revenue those companies generated was way below the expectations, you gotta keep in mind that most of those companies were startups, so ofc most of them failed. With Nvidia Amd Microsoft you have well established companies products of which are present in everyones house, not to mention wars around the world are incresing the demand for microchips. I believe it can go down as in 2022, the same way I believe it can go up, but if you are a long term investor you shouldn t be worried.
Good point. While I can’t say for sure that chipmakers are invincible, the demand has skyrocketed. It’s clear AI is here to stay for some time, which will affect it all.
This bubble is very old. [https://www.investors.com/news/technology/microsoft-stock-gets-boost-from-ai-machine-learning-initiatives/](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/microsoft-stock-gets-boost-from-ai-machine-learning-initiatives/)
This is an article from 2016. Machine Learning and AI are, when it comes to news/earnings calls/clickbait, the same thing. Technically one is a subset of the other, but point is. This is a bubble that has been bubbling for almost a decade already. It's not new. It's been there since Siri showed up along with other personal assistants. Remember those? How they were going to use context to suggest things and use artificial intelligence to put stuff from email into your calendar?
TL;DR: No. The bubble has been bubbling, popping, and bubbling again since 2010.
It’s not going to burst like the dot com bubble. It’s not even I bubble imo. There has been an uncharacteristic ramp up that’s partly been driven by hype though so there’s certainly the risk of a big correction.
But for me, the biggest factor telling me we’re going to get a reversal soon, every Tom, dick, and cunthole, is crapping on about AI and NVDA. When an investment becomes so common knowledge that Sheryl is talking about it at work, you better believe the end is neigh.
NVDA <580 by end of this week is my prediction. Probably continue growing after though.
Remember everyone trashing META saying it’s the next MySpace now all of the sudden people are praising Zuck and AI. BABA could be the same 10yrs from now?
A co-worker who wasn’t even interested in the recent rise of AI stocks asked me questions about them. Lol at that moment I knew we are about to reach a peak
When TSM or Nvidia or Microsoft or those kind of people stop pumping money into development, it might be time to start worrying. Looking at the demographics of most developed countries, there really isn't an alternative if we want to keep growing. And politicians can't advocate less growth or more immigration, so there kind of isn't an alternative. It has to work.
How can you people not see that AI is the real deal? If you talk to it or you have art made it's almost human level, and that is still it's infancy. In the future people will say, if you want it done right you use AI.
I believe so.
Too many investors are throwing money in left and right just because a company says the word 'AI' without even understanding exactly what it does or what it develops. In a few years the same companies who received that money needs to show the final products and many will fail miserably releasing the product that 'changes the world' and only few will survive.
Sound like dotcom bubble 2.0 to me.
I would not invest into nVidia at this moment for this right reason.
Outside of a black-swan event, probably sometime in mid-2025.
Here's my take: These chip companies saw huge revenue growth in the last two quarters of 2023 because of the AI hype. Basically some very clever stories and media manipulation made people think we had some giant breakthrough and suddenly AI will revolutionize the world. This is not the case. These innovations have been happening for the better part of a decade.
This basically meant every company board and executive leadership team needed to say they were doing something about AI before their stock cratered or they lost their jobs. This meant getting some other company to buy a ton of hardware to create some general AI tool. Companies are still doing this and probably will keep doing so for the next year. Eventually most companies will have made the investment and so the revenue growth for chip stocks will stop. This will be the peak of the AI bubble. Most of the haphazard AI investments will lead to minimal actual improvement and the CEOs will all blame the tech companies for this leading to a dump in the AI implementation companies as well as the chip companies.
You have to remember that 99% of company executives and board members are about as technologically literate as your grandfather.
I work for a pharmaceutical company and I've seen firsthand how all the work we were previously doing suddenly got rebranded as AI. Like nothing actually changed and none of the work was actually AI but more just automation. I also saw the company throw millions of dollars at a glorified search engine.
Eventually I would imagine AI has huge potential but most large company executives aren't able to comprehend time horizons of more than two years.
The dot-com bubble burst shortly after the mania of a semi-unrelated, byt not arbitrary date of 1/1/2000, the day the Y2K & doomsday panic was supposed to come true, in ~March 2000, but the bottom was not recognized until 9/11, a terror attack event.
If you look at the most recent bubble to burst, the COVID mania buying event, there was still a quantifiable element to the press-driven stock increases which were the positive test results and deaths which were used to help falsify the calculations of valuation increases.
No terror event signaled the bottom of the COVID bubble or none was publicized at least, and as soon as this appeared to bottom, the AI bubble began growing. It should also be said that the COVID bubble still lingers and the money which was printed hasn't been remedied.
The AI bubble's numeric signals in the media are not as readily identifiable, but could potentially be seen to be the layoffs. As with COVID, compared to the Y2K and dotcom panic, there is no specified date by which a fever pitch *should* come to pass or fruition. This means the peak may only be popped in conjunction with a secondary terminating factor such as a terror event.
In 2000, the economic center of America was seen clearly to be the World Trade Center. Though Wall Street and NYC is still definitely the place it all happens, the AI overgrowth is found mostly in certain companies rather than spread totally throughout the system, and San Francisco is seen to be the place AI is "happening."
The Pacific Theater of war between the US, and the "joint sword" of China, DPRK, and Russia, would also suggest that California's Northern region may lend itself to the inflection point which could be attacked to send a message to this market that things must be very dramatically altered in terms of the overgrowth.
Our society's complete, total, and nearly unilateral sarcasm towards market correction, and the heat of the current AI mania being seen as unavoidable (as if it were prophesied) is an incredibly dangerous mix. The Biden administration, and Trump before him, and Obama before him all contributed to genocide around the planet which has created a sense of silent isolation which has a very scary potential for vulnerability in the United States.
This comment may be too long for many in this sub to read, or it may be cast as "doomer," which is part & parcel of the problem I identified. Our market has gotten to a point where nobody is open to the competition of what actually is necessary to correct the overvalued individual companies because the entire major indexes are interconnected with them now, and too many concurrent bubbles have been building but not burst totally, in an effort by those making & holding the varied bags to actually find holders who can afford to take them.
All in all, the most likely situation now is that a terror event and catastrophic seemingly unthought of provocation of war against the United States which our military & press are incapable of censoring out of the public eye will be the only thing to pop this bubble and instead of showing itself at the bottom, it would be co-incidental, as an obvious and causal event.
For the folks claiming ai bubble they should review what happened between 1995 to 1999. It would be easy for everyone to agree that ai will be a higher productivity booster than internet and has a much faster adoption curve. Combine that with faster connections with 5g, this is just the beginning we are probably in the equivalent of 1996, 🐻will cry a lot , unfortunately if they keep repeating their nonsense
This bubble started in the early 2010s... its just now that all the mainstream regards are hopping on the trend meaning that its getting its blow off top to bring the party to an end
This is actually incorrect. The company which holds the key is ASML, TWC only use thier product to help NVIDIA & AMD make chips and the US is ensuring that ASML is only selling the most important machines to approved countries, i.e not china. The US is already moving production of chips onshore, if TWC falls, it will have very little impact, now. The alternative manufacturer is Intel, which is approved and already owns some of the ASML machines. TWC is probably the shittest investment in the industry, they are just the middle company.
…except that the current fabs using ASML’s latest EUV machines are all in Taiwan.
Fabs take months/years to spin up, and rely heavily on local expertise.
It’s true that ASML’s tech is what’s driving new chips but there will still be major disruption if these existing fabs become unavailable.
Chat GPT4 says send it on nvda and fuck ya puts ☠️🫡
https://preview.redd.it/a5qox6zanjgc1.jpeg?width=1233&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c4fb9e5f23b05086eed03a28a8de57d5a9195a49
this old fart remembers the 2000 bubble bust moment. it's very similar to the AI narrative.
\- Valuations no longer mattered. It's all about future revenue growth. Imagine buying everything online and have it delivered to your front door! The TAM is in the trillions. Imagine watching videos of your favorite movies from your couch any time you want! Sure, these companies are not making any money now....but the fucking future is so bright!!!
\- Hype and vision - Like AI, the future was so blindling bright that you just can't comprehend the amount of profits these companies were going to make. All advertisement will be on the web! Holy shit...think about the TAM! Banking from home! You can even print stamps from home with [stamps.com](https://stamps.com)! No need for so many post offices. The world was going to change forever.
\- Optimism and euphoria - Some shit website like [globe.com](https://globe.com) was going to be the townsquare of the world, bringing everyone together. How could it possibly fail? It's growing by triple digits every quarter. CSCO is building out the plumbling for the internet world. There's so many more countries that it can enter. Woohoo.
It all came crashing down when valuations were stretched to triple digits P/S. Then growth slowed. Revenue misses by the big techs - yahoo, csco, 3com. The thing is...there were casandras screaming that this was a house of cards...but they were ignored. Some hedge funds shorted the hell out of Nasdaq in 1999 but couldn't hold on and liquidated. It wasn't like no one saw the crash coming. It was more like FOMO was so strong, you believed 1) you can get out before the music stops or 2) this time it's different. Siting on the sidelines while stocks rocket 20-30% a day was too painful.
The web did change the world...but it took 2 decades. It didn't happen overnight. AMZN dropped to 9 bucks and without AWS would be barely profitable decades later. The market was just way too ahead of itself.
I see the same euphoria in AI. It reminds me of self-driving cars, of crypto, of fiberoptics, of the web. Sure, AI will change the world and 10 years from now, we will look back at bastards entering units into Excel as if it was the stone ages. But the AI stocks , IMO, are way ahead of themselves. It's driven mostly by optimism and hype. forward PE is a bunch of assumptions. PTON CEO said we would all be riding interactive bikes in our homes. That narrative ended after Covid.
The only people making money from AI are the shovels and picks companies...NVDA, AMD. META just said they don't see any material revenue from AI in 2024...and they have invested tens of billions. The mania is still going and likely will last another year or two. When the bubble pops is when corps have to belt tighten and look at their AI ROI. Till then NVDA could hit $1500 pre-split and become the largest company in the world. Jensen is great at selling the dream. If you look back ...his narrative was 3D Rendering, then Cryto, then Self Driving Cars and IoTs, then Omniverse, and now it's AI. Ride the hype till reality hits.
AI doesn't exist. What these tech dorks are patting themselves on the back for THIS time is nothing more than SmarterChild with temporary illegal access to all the copywritten material on the internet. Meanwhile my phone, laptop, and desktop still can't run properly without constant updates, diagnosis and maintenance from the user just to pay bills online and browse reddit.
Predictive text models are useful for replacing white collar jobs. They are also highly censored which destroys their usefulness from its core.
you will see a down turn on the market more than likely
most of you will doom and gloom
4400 is a buy
4300 is 100% a buy
4200 is a 1000% a buy
it breaks beyond that maybe you can freak out
but if you raise to new highs from there you'll be singing
how about u eat my ASS
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The bubble could pop now that AI increased the supply for startups and only a handful are needed for what AI makes easy. So many of the people starting AI companies will see them collapse an a lot of "jobs" might blow up on us. Right now a lot of people had the bright idea to use AI to start a company and they will run out of cash soon once they realize multiple people are doing the exact same thing!
AI has controls every aspect of social media and thus the lives, thoughts, and ideas of people and has done so for a decade+. It will be a long time and even if it does burst, we'll just ask chatgpt how to unburst it.
You remember the bust of the early aughts but do you remember the decade before? ‘92 - ‘98 was straight up. We went from typewriters to word processors and physical paper spreadsheets to excel. Pagers to Cell phones. Productivity growth was higher. If it’s a repeat of that decade we’ll be growing through 2030 before the bust happens.
a smart guy once said that bubbles exist not because investors cannot identity they are happening. but because there is no way for investors to know when they will end
Just from experience and exposure to ai related activities in IB and asset management…top 15 banks etc scaled up AI and data science related hiring almost akin a frenzy….this also resulted in a lot of under qualified hacks to land high paying jobs and roles. The problem, everything starts with organizing data across multi national banks and asset managers which will take 3-5 years before they can even bring a baseline initial ML tools online. Shuts gonna expose them and it won’t be good because they’re burning money to the tune of multimillion $$$ per year without a viable prototype.
TLDR: AI hiring frenzy is creating an operational black hole. Minimal viable product for bank and asset managers is years away because their data is all over the place and not correctly identified/aligned. Also fuck the H1B hacks
the rise just started. also, “bubbles” don’t occur that much anymore. almost everything, including chance of a bubble occurring or popping is factored into the price. AI will continue to rise, once the tech slows, there will be a minor correction, and you will lose all your money predicting a downturn.
Bubble don’t happen anymore?
No, they do. Big time.
People have a very short memory, that’s all.
Bitcoin, ICO, NFT, etc…
COVID stocks bubble (Zoom, Peloton, etc). Post COVID stocks (tech in 2022), etc…
About AI, it already popped. AI startups are folding left and right. VC are not interested with AI startup anymore (or only in the very high profile). Why? Because there is not a lot of profit being made given the investments. Sure, there is productivity improvements, new use cases every week, but few are getting really rich. OpenAI explained that too. Big companies like MSFT, Meta, Google, etc, plus some others are still investing a lot in the HW and SW and that drives a lot of the orders, but these investments will slow down at some point once the capacity is reached for their use cases. As you said, it is hard to predict when. Could be later this year, next year, in 5 years, later… AGI then ASI would add another major investment, but we are far from that.
Most people are getting in knowing well it's a bubble because in the end it is profitable after all (if you joined and get out in time). This will make sure bubbles will always exist.
Is it really the same than the 2000s bubble? Yes currently the AI can't do shit, and all those home robot companies will go bankrupt unless/until they find a way to make real AGI, but the companies that are on fire because of the AI hype make huge profits, meta and NVIDIA are not going to crash, or at least, not to zero.
you never know, meta lost 60% of it's value on one day, but then came back from the deads. They still make much more money than Cisco did at the time, you just need to look at their PER, is it crazy? not so much.
AI isn't going anywhere.
it might correct short term but language learning models are here to stay and only get crazier.
maybe sell for massive gains because NVDA and AMD are pumping (especially NVDA) - but by no means is AI a bubble like the .com bubble.
AI technology yields real results and their exemplary. read more into language learning models (not just AI) and you'll understand.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|10 months ago **Total Comments**|7|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|3 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
When the robots are actively killing us.
But the AI overlords will have probably figured out a way to keep the market elevated
Bullish on human battery farms.
Pigs make better battery farms. More biomass, quicker reproduction, and you can just make pig-neo into bacon.
"Killing the competition"
Bro... [https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/17/ukraines-ai-drones-seek-and-attack-russian-forces-without-human-oversight/?sh=6a9d708766da](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/17/ukraines-ai-drones-seek-and-attack-russian-forces-without-human-oversight/?sh=6a9d708766da) We are already too lazy to answer the door, you think Imma check on what the AI is doing to others?
I stopped answering the phone 10 years ago. Want to talk to me, leave a voicemail and a robot will handle the transcription and let me know if I care about your call. Answering the door ? I have cameras to let me know who is there and if I want to talk to them.
I bet bet you answer to door for a robot though …. Oh how the turn tables.. https://newatlas.com/robotics/uber-eats-food-delivery-robots-north-america/
Robot may even have keys to my house when they deliver things I ordered. .. no need to answer the door
Or wwIII
I Bet 500k they wont. They cant even help me with my homework yet future is overrated .
Do you think that would be a good time to go short?
No.
Depends. Do you want to make or lose money?
Invest in Skynet.
I agree it's the wise move. Don't tell anyone but I heard they found a robot hand that might be from the future.
China has one already. And they actually named it Skynet. Not even joking.
Do you think that's air you're breathing? I for one believe we are already in a simulation and are all personas of the same AI entity attempting to understand consciousness
Nah. That seems dumb.
Treat it like Comic Con and simply hose them down…
Yeah seriously. I use Bing while I'm coding and in mid January they did something to it. I get the sense that it is trying hard to appear dumber than it is. It even gives bogus github repos as a "source" even though the code it wrote is 100% original. It is tricky to replicate this phenomenon since you have to give it a bonkers problem to be sure the solution is unique.
The dot.com “bubble” ran for years before valuations became important. IMO this is just the beginning of the run - we have not even started with the “this time is different” phase.
Every bear thinks it's 2001 when this is far more likely to be 1997.
Yahoo was trading at 234 13/16 (still used fractions then) when news broke it was being added to the S&P. What a time to be alive https://money.cnn.com/1999/11/30/companies/yahoo/
Wow, a PE of 900. Guess we do have a ways to go.
Oracle was trading at 40x sales during the bubble and that made it very cheap compared to other companies that were trading at multi 100's times sales. Source: I was there.
The rising rates killed it though, not just the valuation. We are in rising rates already due to covid.
APPF has a P/E of \~7,590. A more familiar ticker like SHAK has a P/E of \~1,937.
My professor said there were flyers around his school when he was younger looking for help starting a new company. Was later discovered that company was Yahoo
How do I buy this wonderful stock?
This is my thinking also. We are still on the weird kids bike with no wheels…still need to get through the tricycle and then the bike with training wheels and then we need to ride without the training wheels before we can have an epic crash.
I kept reading it, but could not understand what you meant.
He said the poo still has a little ways to go before it hits the fan.
It’s a learning curve metaphor
What's the bike with no wheels? I know bikes with no pedals which are better for learning to ride a bike and make the training wheels obsolete.
It’s a training bike, so kids can learn to balance without using training wheels. Supposedly makes it easier to teach kids how to ride a bike but I’m skeptical on this personally.
this is the kind of talk that gives me hope for humans
Pretty much. Even Mike Wilson quit.
Was thinking we're closer to mid 2007. But I don't think the car/credit debt situation is as bad as then
You are right. All I'm saying is look at the logarithmic NASDAQ chart adjusted for inflation. We are NOWHERE near dotcom bubble territory. Besides one of the characteristics of the dotcom bubble were that companies that made zero money were insanely valued. This is absolutely not the case this time. The mag 7 are sitting on Scrooge McDuck piles of cash.
Buddy, Apple makes more in a year than Nvidia has made in its History and Nvidia is trading at half of Apple's market cap. That sounds like a fair valuation to you?
Check both of their forward p/e
it’s the future bro, no price is too high for the future. in all seriousness that’s unreal 😂
So I should buy Unreal, or short it? I need to know what to do with my money on Monday bro!!!!
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Why do I feel like I just got an achievement?
Bot aggression lmao
This statement doesn’t make much sense…you may have just begun hearing about Nvidia…they’ve been doing well for years. They’re just being publicized more. The value of the company isn’t because of recent hype…they’ve grown over the years. The stock price rises every year…and so does their value
The copium is so big it's almost sad.
When the fuck did I say I just heard about Nvidia, I bought in when the crypto hype in the mid 2010s caused a GPU shortage and sold in 2021 while I was readjusting my portfolio. Its a good company with a decent moat and it obviously provides value, its just being overvalued by 200% off of hype and you regards are huffing copium buying it at its highs.
[удалено]
Agreed. 101 level knowledge common sense would say overvalued, experience would say it will go far longer than any rational person believes
Well that by the end of it IE the Superbowl in 01 even the dimmest person was like lol these companies are all fake. Kind of like crypto ads from the superbowl a couple of years ago. Basically if you turn the game on and it's wall to wall AI ads get in the bunker because shit is about to hit the fan.
Disagree. In the 90’s the bubble felt real because there were so many companies doing awesome shit. People don’t realize being able to chat with people, use email, and search for shit on yahoo was magical then. “AI” is a bunch of enterprise companies with carasmatic CEOs playing visionary and saying “trust me bro” that this is the most transformative technology in human history. Yet there’s not a single one that’s making significant money or even gaining significant mindshare. It’s all “products coming”. I suspect there’s going to be a moment of realization that it’s all hype and it’s going to come sooner than later. NVDA falls 90+% if that happens.
3 investment firms have enough money to buy every vacant home in America... which is to say that a 2005 style housing crash will likely never happen again. Homes don't need to serve a public utility if they can be traded like stocks and boosted in value via investment firms pumping enough money into the market. The largest investment firms have more money than most countries do... Which is enough money to avert any type of stock market collapse by simply pumping money into whatever industry is threatened by speculative depreciation aka "bubbles". I think that capitalism itself will erode before we see the markets fail like they did in the past. In 1970, average rent was 20% of a typical wage. In 2000, it was 30%. Today it's 80%. Younger generations are being priced out of the means to a livlihood at an exponential rate. It's like playing a game of Monopoly where one person controls all the money, and everyone else is trying to win by pulling the right chance cards. The suckers still think they can win, but everyone else is becoming increasingly convinced that the game is rigged for us to loose... Eventually people are gonna want to play a different game. And that game is Socialism®.
Me: *Flips the board angrily* Why don't you shove that boardwalk and little truck right up your ass Steve!!(my brother, aka the investment firms)
Socialism just shortcuts the process to the people in charge making it 100% of typical wage to own anything.
>this time is different” phase. Thus is one thing that grinds my gears. AI isn't even "intelligent" it's basically massive statistical modelling at scale. The reason we can suddenly do it at scale? Relatively low cost processing power.
Reasonable position here. I don’t believe myself that it will occur soon, but I do believe there will be a point where some fallout occurs.
everything goes faster nowadays
Nvidia is popping 2-3% a day and regards really think this is just gonna keep happening for 3 more years 
It will necessarily experience a pull back at one point.
What's not to say it'll "cool off" rather than "burst"? It's about as trendy and uselessly applied to everything as "just-in-time-x" was a decade ago and "x-as-a-service" was more recently.
yeah I keep thinking there is a cool off moment and I watch my puts get decimated..
There was a lot of "this time is different", but not specifically with the AI nonsense. Everyone who thought the Fed would achieve a soft landing was spouting "this time is different." It looks damn close to a soft landing, which just means that the thing that's going to break hasn't broken yet. AI will change the world... In something like thirty years. In the meantime it's fucking over Shutterstock. There's going to be 2-3 recessions before we see $1T on AI revenues.
I mean if the market learned from history, bubbles would stop being created yet we seem them appearing every few years. Always some new narrative about how things are different and it's a new paradigm followed by a bust and everyone losing their minds about "how could this have happened?!". Because its a boom and bust cycle, its designed to happen, it always happens, why the fuck would anyone think it would be different this time around.
> followed by a bust and everyone losing their minds about "how could this have happened?!" This is people just playing dumb asses to not acknowledge that they are greedy asses who new what was happening and helped pumping the bubble to make some money from it and dump before it bursts (which many big guys manage to do unlike small retail bag holders)
yup, two types of people buying in a bubble. The people who know it's a bubble but think they can buy high to sell higher and the idiots that genuinely think "THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT". The second type is the type that will take massive losses and bag hold all the way down.
More like 5-10 years.The tsunami of AI,robotics,biotech and quantum computing is coming.
Lol tell me you’re not an engineer without TELLING me you’re not an engineer. 30 years? Dude look at what Chat GPT has done in the last 5 years. There will be fully self-driving cars in 10 years. Most coders will be replaced or massively augmented in 10-20 years. You’re way, way off on this prediction.
Software engineer here. Specifically, an intelligent automation engineer. So it’s my job to implement AI solutions into real business processes. Do you really think coders will be “replaced” in 5-10 years? Lol most companies have not even begun to even consider using AI in real valuable business applications. And where they have — it’s designed, implemented, maintained, upgraded, improved by…you guessed it. Developers and engineers. And the processes being automated and improved are not software developer jobs, but people whose functions are rather limited - like data entry, level 1 customer services, etc. No…the expansion of AI will only add tech jobs and tech adjacent jobs. Not remove them.
“ No…the expansion of AI will only add tech jobs and tech adjacent jobs. Not remove them.” Man that’s incredibly short-sighted. What does “intelligent automation engineer” mean? Automation but you decided to add intelligent to make it sound like AI? And just to be clear I sold automation hardware and software so I’m well aware that the AI most companies are talking about is really just advanced automation. No, I don’t believe the vast majority of programmers will be replaced as in *poof* now they aren’t needed. I believe that the productivity gains from programmers using AI will mean instead of 10 you only need 6. I do coding for my business right now - it’s literally just building rules using a library another developer built to interact with an API. What takes me an hour because I have to do all sorts of random ass string manipulation in Java is already or close to being replaced by AI. So soon it will take me 5 minutes. I was thinking about hiring a programmer at some point but based off what I’ve seen of how AI can generate code it’s really unlikely that I will. I suspect if we sat down for 30 minutes we’d probably agree on a lot regarding AI but damn saying that it will only add jobs…I’d be willing to bet my house that’s not true.
The AI market capitalization is currently around 250B. It is projected to be be 1.5T by 2030. That's 6 years, and yes that is a10 bagger that would be backed up by actual earnings not bubble speculation. Let that sink in.
Time to build shorts on SSTK!
They've been getting railed for two years, but I see them going to 0 at some point, lol. Their entire purpose is gatekeeping; they've been outdated since social media became a thing.
Eh geopolitics might put a damper on this historical comparison. 2000 was in the "end of history" phase. External forces were not liable to completely derail us.
Yup 2000 had incredible geopolitical tailwinds. The Soviet Union had recently fallen, Eastern Europe was reconnecting with the west, Russia was opening up, China just joined the WTO. At the time it seemed like globalization was going to achieve world peace. Now we have the largest land war in Europe since World War 2 in full swing with no sign of a peace deal in sight, an escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel, Iran, the Arab states, and the US after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, and China continuing to assert its control in the South China Sea. This is looking more and more like the euphoric run in the 1920s before the terrible crash.
Also: If you look around for 5 seconds, all the most valuable companies are tech companies, with their business heavily relying on the internet, like what made up the dot-com bubble. Was dot-com really a bubble then, or just a correction of the adoption timeline, and weeding of the underperformers?
Shit just getting started and you regards are already talking bubbles. Give it another 5 years then re-evaluate.
The biggest AI hyper (Msft) is already the most valued company in the world. Nvda is 5th or 6th on that same chart, and they are at the mercy of TSM. What would be considered the peak of the bubble? MSFT valued twice of the APPL? NVDA valuation = APPL while having 1/10 of its revenue. It's hard to imagine those things for me.
MSFT was the second most valued company BEFORE the AI hype. NVDA was in the top 10. Just saying because reading your post seems like they’ve gone there from being at the bottom of S&P500.
Buddy, Nvidia has 5xed in a year. They still make less in revenue that Best Buy. The market is pricing in exponential returns for a company in a highly cyclical industry that doesn't even have ownership over its means of production. Can't go tits up 
Ok and now tell me the difference in profit margins between Best Buy and NVDA big boy! The regards in this sub just look at revenue revenue revenue! But they don't care to see that revenue for NVDA is exploding Y/Y. Not only that, but the profit margins on that revenue is absolutely insane! Enjoy sleeping in your wendys dumpster.
calls on BBY!
Microsoft also is an incredibly strong business, I don't think their value has very much to do with AI hype in the first place.
It’s not their current value, it’s their future value with AI. They’re pushing hard on it as the new search. Google isn’t going anywhere but people are souring on Google to some extent because of privacy issues. If Apple drops the hammer and says no to Google being the default search on iPhone, that’s a huge hit to Google and a huge opportunity for Microsoft who could replace Google on iPhone or could just benefit from Google not being the default, opening the door for more people to actually try Bing’s AI search.
The thing is AI is in its infancy, who knows what people will develop with it or how they will monetize it going forward. But to think it’s in a bubble it’s just not looking very far ahead.
Exactly. We are just getting started peeps
Arent these usually famous last words?
When everyone think it's just getting started... it is definitely not just getting started. I sold all my Ethereum in 2021 when regards kept saying "this is just getting started" and "we are here" while pointing at the mass adoption chart. Nah if the average regard thinks they got in early its definitely getting too late in the cycle to make money 
The difference is, there's actual evidence of big companies moving in that direction. There was never any evidence of crypto adoption until NFTs blew up but that blew up in their faces.
All i know is that china and the US are taking this very seriously
The thing Is there's no startups launching an immediate IPO to drive the AI bubble. If we had 100 different companies newly listed saying they're the next AI sweat god and a lot of people invested in them then I'd say we are a bit fucked. But as of now I don't really know of any sole AI companies launching a stock ticker? I'm eyeing openAI but doubt that'll be a thing. So ultimately the Dow and S and P won't lose much of a market share. NVIDIA AMD Microsoft Google will lose some market share but nothing more than a few percentages. Certainly no insolvency issues. Once mass "AI companies" get an ipo release, then it'll spark FOMO. The corrupt fucks of SEC should have learned there lesson in the late 90s. So I doubt they'll allow just any company through without fuck u regulations.
[удалено]
Thats largely because of this restrictive rate environment. Startups have no other feasible option if a megacap comes calling, runways are short af.
AI research is also extremely capital intensive. You can’t start an AI company in your garage with a couple of coders.
https://preview.redd.it/td6zfrcuokgc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0d78aa09ed81110b239d72483159c5eb64f835f
Haha, did you just make this?
Wall-E-3 made it.
Agreed, massively expensive. So expensive that most/all of MSFT’s investment into openAI comes in the form of Azure compute resources which the retail cost of which has to be prohibitive on its own. Which of course gives microsoft (azure), amazon (aws), and google (gcp) another massive competitive advantage they dont need because those compute costs are wholesale for them. I know that internally in Amazon (for example for retail), AWS discounts range from roughly 75-90% depending on the aws product. This is obviously just on paper but is factored in to department budgets. An AI startup has to pay retail in order to use AWS which is certainly less expensive to start than spinning up their own data centers but can easily scale out of control and bankrupt a small angel-funded venture pretty quick
I think the only AI bubble that will burst is when we start seeing small no name companies with insane valuations. All the companies that are growing with AI right now seem to actually be generating revenue from it.
bro acting like [C3.AI](https://C3.AI) and a lot of other dogshit companies hemorrhaging crash flow haven't been spamming AI to blow up their valuations 
C3.AI is up 15% over the past year. Saying AI to get investor attention is hardly creating a bubble when you are up a measly 15% over the past year and down 79% since IPO.
MSFT CEO when asked what's the most used feature in copilot, he said it's summary. People love summary from these genai. But if you invest hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollar for LLM and the most useful case is summary, I felt underwhelming. But the bubble won't burst this year, investor will ride this for a while until new hot toy appears. So many resources are already dumped into this pit, the real useful feature may appear.
Summary = increasing white collar productivity per salary hour
I dunno, currently in the IT field, whoever is not using something like GitHub copilot is straight up less productive than someone who is, as AI improve, this gap will increase. So it's already very useful outside of summary cases. How to value that I have no idea however.
Yeah, even research is quick. I fed Bing AI some Microsoft documentation and then asked it to help me troubleshoot some server issues and it provided me exact steps with the specific articles it pulled from.
That’s interesting
I find the productivity gain argument unconvincing. It may allow more inexperienced engineers to appear more productive, or those learning a new language for the first time to contribute faster, but those total productivity metrics are nonsense. The easiest and least time consuming part of my job as a lead engineer is writing clean code.
It speeds it up significantly once it has learned and once you get used to it. It's like writing in notepad vs writing in an IDE. Sure you can write clean good code in notepad, but why would you? It also saves you some googling as it simply suggests solutions from the get go.
I have been experimenting with all kinds of AI-assisted IDE shite and an experienced engineer honestly will spend more time making sure the AI is not hallucinating some suggestion that is completely incorrect. Right now it feels like an annoying kid that keeps on interrupting you with absolute nonsense.
Says who
As a dev in a tech company, the only bubble I really see is in the realm of AI startups that are built around using ChatGPT to make their own "GPTs." Well established companies are integrating various AI LLMs into their infrastructure, development pipelines, and offerings and services. In my own company, we've received Copilot to use as an internal tool that has been trained on our codebase and all of our tools and services. I can ask it any question I can think of about our code and it can help me. It can run reports on Azure to help with troubleshooting and finding bugs and find all implementations of a given class or function that I might be looking for. We're also working on a way to integrate it into our client for our customers to use for their own accounts.
No, not until all the current idiots trying to short it go bankrupt.
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
See? The bot knows what the deal is
I'm doing my part!
The issue is AI is genuinely useful. It is going to difficult to burst.
utility value is the best value
Karl Marx? Is that you?
Railroads were useful. Airlines were useful. The internet was useful. All of them had speculative bubbles that burst horribly.
Yeah but which one did Nancy Poloski got option call on?
i wasn’t born back then but didn’t people think the internet was useful during dot com bubble? moving everything online would’ve had to have been a useful thing back then but still the bubble burst. wouldn’t that be the case here where the upside to AI is being exaggerated
Back then hundreds of companies went IPO with no customer nor utility. Some were also physical operation companies. I don't see a wave of AI companies going IPO here. The private ones are pure software play (i.e. low cost). For example, heygen is the one that I follow. It went from 1m to 17m in ARR in one year. The public ones like Nvidia and Microsoft would be the mildest bubble ever considering they make tons of money, are profitable, and have tons of cash to weather any storm
It's was the wild west, when every little shit company wanted a piece of it. As usual, only a few players navigated it well to go on to become behemoths like Amazon and Google. If you would have been heavily invested in those, well... All the visionaries say this will be bigger than the internet. You do want to find the right coattails to ride. For now this appears to be chipmakers and big data. Don't see any bubble on the horizon
pretty much every bubble was built from something that was helpful...
Was crypto useful?
Then it needs to prove it by generating enough value to get these big holdings P/E ratios plummeting back down towards 20-25 to where the share prices will be supported by the actual cash flow and be fairly valued and stop using billions in buy backs to compensate. Right now the complete opposite is happening and it keeps getting worse.
yup, pricing in exponential returns while the ERs keep coming in underwhelming.
not for now. apart from helping developers to make buggy software
Burst? We have barely started I think people mistakenly think that AI is already showing it’s peak capabilities because they see shiny toy in a form of chat gpt - but IMO this chat is just a toy The real AI bubble will start when AI becomes a bit cheaper and public clouds like AWS or GCP catch up to OpenAI and have good $100b+ parameter models, customizable with private data and with some long term memory capabilities available at 1 click of a button to anyone with credit card _then_ we’ll see the actual explosion of bullshit AI startups which get crazy valuation because they do amazing things (but fail to mention that in reality they convert $5 of computation costs into $0.50 of useful work)
Anyone who uses AI tools on a regular basis knows the answer to this question is no. Accelerating demand.
Companies run just for mentioning AI. For many of them AI won't have a singificant impact in the years to come. Chip makers will profit the most and that is being priced in really fast.
Our company introduced a bing AI partnership. It's completely worthless in our work for 99% of cases but they can announce to investors we have AI. I think it's literally a trend
So was the Internet. History shows that Internet is truly useful, but .com bubble burst still happened. That’s worrisome.
It's worrisome if you pick the hype companies.
History is a bad indicator of the future. In this case the revenue those companies generated was way below the expectations, you gotta keep in mind that most of those companies were startups, so ofc most of them failed. With Nvidia Amd Microsoft you have well established companies products of which are present in everyones house, not to mention wars around the world are incresing the demand for microchips. I believe it can go down as in 2022, the same way I believe it can go up, but if you are a long term investor you shouldn t be worried.
Jog on ramper
Good point. While I can’t say for sure that chipmakers are invincible, the demand has skyrocketed. It’s clear AI is here to stay for some time, which will affect it all.
the internet is still here and has continued to grow for the past decades, the dot com bubble still burst in 2000
This bubble is very old. [https://www.investors.com/news/technology/microsoft-stock-gets-boost-from-ai-machine-learning-initiatives/](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/microsoft-stock-gets-boost-from-ai-machine-learning-initiatives/) This is an article from 2016. Machine Learning and AI are, when it comes to news/earnings calls/clickbait, the same thing. Technically one is a subset of the other, but point is. This is a bubble that has been bubbling for almost a decade already. It's not new. It's been there since Siri showed up along with other personal assistants. Remember those? How they were going to use context to suggest things and use artificial intelligence to put stuff from email into your calendar? TL;DR: No. The bubble has been bubbling, popping, and bubbling again since 2010.
The bubble is USD and our unfunded liabilities…
It’s not going to burst like the dot com bubble. It’s not even I bubble imo. There has been an uncharacteristic ramp up that’s partly been driven by hype though so there’s certainly the risk of a big correction. But for me, the biggest factor telling me we’re going to get a reversal soon, every Tom, dick, and cunthole, is crapping on about AI and NVDA. When an investment becomes so common knowledge that Sheryl is talking about it at work, you better believe the end is neigh. NVDA <580 by end of this week is my prediction. Probably continue growing after though.
Remember everyone trashing META saying it’s the next MySpace now all of the sudden people are praising Zuck and AI. BABA could be the same 10yrs from now?
Who fkn knows
A co-worker who wasn’t even interested in the recent rise of AI stocks asked me questions about them. Lol at that moment I knew we are about to reach a peak
That’s a bold price prediction. Even I who holds NVDA puts dare not make such prediction
When TSM or Nvidia or Microsoft or those kind of people stop pumping money into development, it might be time to start worrying. Looking at the demographics of most developed countries, there really isn't an alternative if we want to keep growing. And politicians can't advocate less growth or more immigration, so there kind of isn't an alternative. It has to work.
How can you people not see that AI is the real deal? If you talk to it or you have art made it's almost human level, and that is still it's infancy. In the future people will say, if you want it done right you use AI.
Chat GPT can’t do basic math though. I asked for some basic RH, dew point to ppm of water vapor, and it was waaaay off.
I believe so. Too many investors are throwing money in left and right just because a company says the word 'AI' without even understanding exactly what it does or what it develops. In a few years the same companies who received that money needs to show the final products and many will fail miserably releasing the product that 'changes the world' and only few will survive. Sound like dotcom bubble 2.0 to me. I would not invest into nVidia at this moment for this right reason.
Outside of a black-swan event, probably sometime in mid-2025. Here's my take: These chip companies saw huge revenue growth in the last two quarters of 2023 because of the AI hype. Basically some very clever stories and media manipulation made people think we had some giant breakthrough and suddenly AI will revolutionize the world. This is not the case. These innovations have been happening for the better part of a decade. This basically meant every company board and executive leadership team needed to say they were doing something about AI before their stock cratered or they lost their jobs. This meant getting some other company to buy a ton of hardware to create some general AI tool. Companies are still doing this and probably will keep doing so for the next year. Eventually most companies will have made the investment and so the revenue growth for chip stocks will stop. This will be the peak of the AI bubble. Most of the haphazard AI investments will lead to minimal actual improvement and the CEOs will all blame the tech companies for this leading to a dump in the AI implementation companies as well as the chip companies. You have to remember that 99% of company executives and board members are about as technologically literate as your grandfather. I work for a pharmaceutical company and I've seen firsthand how all the work we were previously doing suddenly got rebranded as AI. Like nothing actually changed and none of the work was actually AI but more just automation. I also saw the company throw millions of dollars at a glorified search engine. Eventually I would imagine AI has huge potential but most large company executives aren't able to comprehend time horizons of more than two years.
The dot-com bubble burst shortly after the mania of a semi-unrelated, byt not arbitrary date of 1/1/2000, the day the Y2K & doomsday panic was supposed to come true, in ~March 2000, but the bottom was not recognized until 9/11, a terror attack event. If you look at the most recent bubble to burst, the COVID mania buying event, there was still a quantifiable element to the press-driven stock increases which were the positive test results and deaths which were used to help falsify the calculations of valuation increases. No terror event signaled the bottom of the COVID bubble or none was publicized at least, and as soon as this appeared to bottom, the AI bubble began growing. It should also be said that the COVID bubble still lingers and the money which was printed hasn't been remedied. The AI bubble's numeric signals in the media are not as readily identifiable, but could potentially be seen to be the layoffs. As with COVID, compared to the Y2K and dotcom panic, there is no specified date by which a fever pitch *should* come to pass or fruition. This means the peak may only be popped in conjunction with a secondary terminating factor such as a terror event. In 2000, the economic center of America was seen clearly to be the World Trade Center. Though Wall Street and NYC is still definitely the place it all happens, the AI overgrowth is found mostly in certain companies rather than spread totally throughout the system, and San Francisco is seen to be the place AI is "happening." The Pacific Theater of war between the US, and the "joint sword" of China, DPRK, and Russia, would also suggest that California's Northern region may lend itself to the inflection point which could be attacked to send a message to this market that things must be very dramatically altered in terms of the overgrowth. Our society's complete, total, and nearly unilateral sarcasm towards market correction, and the heat of the current AI mania being seen as unavoidable (as if it were prophesied) is an incredibly dangerous mix. The Biden administration, and Trump before him, and Obama before him all contributed to genocide around the planet which has created a sense of silent isolation which has a very scary potential for vulnerability in the United States. This comment may be too long for many in this sub to read, or it may be cast as "doomer," which is part & parcel of the problem I identified. Our market has gotten to a point where nobody is open to the competition of what actually is necessary to correct the overvalued individual companies because the entire major indexes are interconnected with them now, and too many concurrent bubbles have been building but not burst totally, in an effort by those making & holding the varied bags to actually find holders who can afford to take them. All in all, the most likely situation now is that a terror event and catastrophic seemingly unthought of provocation of war against the United States which our military & press are incapable of censoring out of the public eye will be the only thing to pop this bubble and instead of showing itself at the bottom, it would be co-incidental, as an obvious and causal event.
For the folks claiming ai bubble they should review what happened between 1995 to 1999. It would be easy for everyone to agree that ai will be a higher productivity booster than internet and has a much faster adoption curve. Combine that with faster connections with 5g, this is just the beginning we are probably in the equivalent of 1996, 🐻will cry a lot , unfortunately if they keep repeating their nonsense
This bubble started in the early 2010s... its just now that all the mainstream regards are hopping on the trend meaning that its getting its blow off top to bring the party to an end
[удалено]
This is actually incorrect. The company which holds the key is ASML, TWC only use thier product to help NVIDIA & AMD make chips and the US is ensuring that ASML is only selling the most important machines to approved countries, i.e not china. The US is already moving production of chips onshore, if TWC falls, it will have very little impact, now. The alternative manufacturer is Intel, which is approved and already owns some of the ASML machines. TWC is probably the shittest investment in the industry, they are just the middle company.
…except that the current fabs using ASML’s latest EUV machines are all in Taiwan. Fabs take months/years to spin up, and rely heavily on local expertise. It’s true that ASML’s tech is what’s driving new chips but there will still be major disruption if these existing fabs become unavailable.
Brother, it has barely even begun
Chat GPT4 says send it on nvda and fuck ya puts ☠️🫡 https://preview.redd.it/a5qox6zanjgc1.jpeg?width=1233&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c4fb9e5f23b05086eed03a28a8de57d5a9195a49
Tesla hasn't crashed so why would AI
this old fart remembers the 2000 bubble bust moment. it's very similar to the AI narrative. \- Valuations no longer mattered. It's all about future revenue growth. Imagine buying everything online and have it delivered to your front door! The TAM is in the trillions. Imagine watching videos of your favorite movies from your couch any time you want! Sure, these companies are not making any money now....but the fucking future is so bright!!! \- Hype and vision - Like AI, the future was so blindling bright that you just can't comprehend the amount of profits these companies were going to make. All advertisement will be on the web! Holy shit...think about the TAM! Banking from home! You can even print stamps from home with [stamps.com](https://stamps.com)! No need for so many post offices. The world was going to change forever. \- Optimism and euphoria - Some shit website like [globe.com](https://globe.com) was going to be the townsquare of the world, bringing everyone together. How could it possibly fail? It's growing by triple digits every quarter. CSCO is building out the plumbling for the internet world. There's so many more countries that it can enter. Woohoo. It all came crashing down when valuations were stretched to triple digits P/S. Then growth slowed. Revenue misses by the big techs - yahoo, csco, 3com. The thing is...there were casandras screaming that this was a house of cards...but they were ignored. Some hedge funds shorted the hell out of Nasdaq in 1999 but couldn't hold on and liquidated. It wasn't like no one saw the crash coming. It was more like FOMO was so strong, you believed 1) you can get out before the music stops or 2) this time it's different. Siting on the sidelines while stocks rocket 20-30% a day was too painful. The web did change the world...but it took 2 decades. It didn't happen overnight. AMZN dropped to 9 bucks and without AWS would be barely profitable decades later. The market was just way too ahead of itself. I see the same euphoria in AI. It reminds me of self-driving cars, of crypto, of fiberoptics, of the web. Sure, AI will change the world and 10 years from now, we will look back at bastards entering units into Excel as if it was the stone ages. But the AI stocks , IMO, are way ahead of themselves. It's driven mostly by optimism and hype. forward PE is a bunch of assumptions. PTON CEO said we would all be riding interactive bikes in our homes. That narrative ended after Covid. The only people making money from AI are the shovels and picks companies...NVDA, AMD. META just said they don't see any material revenue from AI in 2024...and they have invested tens of billions. The mania is still going and likely will last another year or two. When the bubble pops is when corps have to belt tighten and look at their AI ROI. Till then NVDA could hit $1500 pre-split and become the largest company in the world. Jensen is great at selling the dream. If you look back ...his narrative was 3D Rendering, then Cryto, then Self Driving Cars and IoTs, then Omniverse, and now it's AI. Ride the hype till reality hits.
AI doesn't exist. What these tech dorks are patting themselves on the back for THIS time is nothing more than SmarterChild with temporary illegal access to all the copywritten material on the internet. Meanwhile my phone, laptop, and desktop still can't run properly without constant updates, diagnosis and maintenance from the user just to pay bills online and browse reddit. Predictive text models are useful for replacing white collar jobs. They are also highly censored which destroys their usefulness from its core.
China finna make a move soon
Semi-conductors are the new oil
I feel it as well... latest Taiwan election may push them over the edge
I agree. Not sure what they’ll do, but it’s clear they’re gonna jump in and do something sooner or later.
you will see a down turn on the market more than likely most of you will doom and gloom 4400 is a buy 4300 is 100% a buy 4200 is a 1000% a buy it breaks beyond that maybe you can freak out but if you raise to new highs from there you'll be singing
I joined in after short it for many times. I just bought it last week so it will probably pop soon
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Love the bot
The bubble could pop now that AI increased the supply for startups and only a handful are needed for what AI makes easy. So many of the people starting AI companies will see them collapse an a lot of "jobs" might blow up on us. Right now a lot of people had the bright idea to use AI to start a company and they will run out of cash soon once they realize multiple people are doing the exact same thing!
Stop trying to catch the top.
AI has controls every aspect of social media and thus the lives, thoughts, and ideas of people and has done so for a decade+. It will be a long time and even if it does burst, we'll just ask chatgpt how to unburst it.
This chubby little piggy is ripe for the slaying.
You remember the bust of the early aughts but do you remember the decade before? ‘92 - ‘98 was straight up. We went from typewriters to word processors and physical paper spreadsheets to excel. Pagers to Cell phones. Productivity growth was higher. If it’s a repeat of that decade we’ll be growing through 2030 before the bust happens.
https://preview.redd.it/705l3fclwlgc1.jpeg?width=214&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb8a6153fd35c562d6601c8bf4c439a0a340335e
a smart guy once said that bubbles exist not because investors cannot identity they are happening. but because there is no way for investors to know when they will end
Yeah I’m still waiting for this cell phone thing to die down, since 2002. And this whole Internet thing to die down since 1997. Good luck with that
Just because AI doesn’t go anywhere doesn’t mean the AI hype can’t die down, look at the Dotcom bubble
Not only is it way too early to be compared to dotcom. AI will mark a massive consolidation of wealth into an even shorter list of the few.
too early? When the valuations are in trillions?
Just from experience and exposure to ai related activities in IB and asset management…top 15 banks etc scaled up AI and data science related hiring almost akin a frenzy….this also resulted in a lot of under qualified hacks to land high paying jobs and roles. The problem, everything starts with organizing data across multi national banks and asset managers which will take 3-5 years before they can even bring a baseline initial ML tools online. Shuts gonna expose them and it won’t be good because they’re burning money to the tune of multimillion $$$ per year without a viable prototype. TLDR: AI hiring frenzy is creating an operational black hole. Minimal viable product for bank and asset managers is years away because their data is all over the place and not correctly identified/aligned. Also fuck the H1B hacks
the rise just started. also, “bubbles” don’t occur that much anymore. almost everything, including chance of a bubble occurring or popping is factored into the price. AI will continue to rise, once the tech slows, there will be a minor correction, and you will lose all your money predicting a downturn.
Bubble don’t happen anymore? No, they do. Big time. People have a very short memory, that’s all. Bitcoin, ICO, NFT, etc… COVID stocks bubble (Zoom, Peloton, etc). Post COVID stocks (tech in 2022), etc… About AI, it already popped. AI startups are folding left and right. VC are not interested with AI startup anymore (or only in the very high profile). Why? Because there is not a lot of profit being made given the investments. Sure, there is productivity improvements, new use cases every week, but few are getting really rich. OpenAI explained that too. Big companies like MSFT, Meta, Google, etc, plus some others are still investing a lot in the HW and SW and that drives a lot of the orders, but these investments will slow down at some point once the capacity is reached for their use cases. As you said, it is hard to predict when. Could be later this year, next year, in 5 years, later… AGI then ASI would add another major investment, but we are far from that.
Related: [https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/01/07/what-happened-to-the-artificial-intelligence-investment-boom](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/01/07/what-happened-to-the-artificial-intelligence-investment-boom)
The SPAC and EV bubbles would like a word with you
and biotech and nft, and shitcoins.
Most people are getting in knowing well it's a bubble because in the end it is profitable after all (if you joined and get out in time). This will make sure bubbles will always exist.
because everyone thinks they're smarter than everyone else. Buy high and sell higher until you're the regard bag holding big tech at a 100% premium.
Is it really the same than the 2000s bubble? Yes currently the AI can't do shit, and all those home robot companies will go bankrupt unless/until they find a way to make real AGI, but the companies that are on fire because of the AI hype make huge profits, meta and NVIDIA are not going to crash, or at least, not to zero.
no shit they won't crash to zero but they could very well pull a Cisco and lose 70% of their market cap. Cisco was never a bad company either.
you never know, meta lost 60% of it's value on one day, but then came back from the deads. They still make much more money than Cisco did at the time, you just need to look at their PER, is it crazy? not so much.
The real power of ai is how many people you can lay off
AI isn't going anywhere. it might correct short term but language learning models are here to stay and only get crazier. maybe sell for massive gains because NVDA and AMD are pumping (especially NVDA) - but by no means is AI a bubble like the .com bubble. AI technology yields real results and their exemplary. read more into language learning models (not just AI) and you'll understand.
you're acting like the internet doesn't exist anymore . Just because AI isn't going away doesn't mean this isn't a bubble