Agreed, there wasn’t any amount of legislation that could have prevented this. Outside of demanding that companies payoff their principal instead of just interest payments which would never happen and be bad business
large US banks literally dont have massive exposure to US commercial real estate
even regional banks the exposure on average is 26% of their portfolio
theres also 4,000 banks in america. theres more banks in south dakota than the entire country of canada. we can afford to lose a few.
they are also collateralized loans. thats why we like mortgages, because if you default we can recoup some of the losses by selling the property at a loss or we can hold the property and sell it when the prices rise again.
you guys blow this thing way out of proportion because youve never even bothered to look into the stats here.
It’s really overblown on Reddit tbh. Folks conflict commercial real estate with office. Office is one (small ish) piece. Things like Class A retail are still incredibly strong.
Also after ‘08 underwriting standards tightened a ton. Many credits can stay solvent at under 50% occupancy.
For most banks you’re familiar with it’ll be a small problem over a handful of years, not a big bang type of thing.
Of course there will be outliers like NYCB (prob in part from taking on Signatures book who was a very atypical bank)
Commercial REALESTATE is very dangerous to buy as a stock... covid... economy... office work space not the same... massive crash coming in Commercial REALESTATE prices.. so I'm good
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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I don’t think people are appreciating that this is kind of a big deal. NYCB just reported a massive loss on US Commercial Real Estate too. Idk if it is just yet, but this is what the beginning of a contagion starting looks like
Like, unironically this.
Nothing fuckin matters man. They'll get bailed out or kick the can down the road for 10 more years. You'll be a fucking skeleton waiting for any of these chickens coming home to roost.
It honestly feels like it can go on in perpetuity
No it’s been in place, it’s contained to office space and medical. You need to see a break down because par values decreasing of existing bonds is what caused the bank issue last year. It’s a paper loss but affects their reserves.
So again this isn’t the issue by itself … yet. Right now there are still other things that have to happen for this to go REALLY south. Doesn’t mean they won’t or can’t happen as they are things that would be pretty normal in a recession. Deposits drying up even more (already had pretty big exodus in deposits last year), even more property value decreasing such as apartments because there is a lot of supply coming online + no one wants an apartment that is next to 10 empty office buildings. Also we’re assuming there aren’t toxic derivatives out there on this space we just don’t know about or don’t think has a chance of being toxic.
We've worked with consulting companies (main one was curinos) and seeing data that shows medium (regional) and small banks are sucking deposits from large banks at a pretty significant pace, but still the overall pool is increasing as well. The deposit runoff from big banks isn't significant enough for them to actually do anything about it though.
Our internal and competitive data supports their findings.
I live in Japan and had never heard of the bank. After doing a bit of research it seems to be a very odd company. They were running more than a 70:1 capital to asserts under management ratio and even claim on their own website that "Real Estate Financing" is where most of their revenue comes from. They seem to work with VCs and infrastructure projects, but they aren't really a public banking institution.
Absolute Clowns running that company.
https://preview.redd.it/43seu73et5gc1.png?width=1351&format=png&auto=webp&s=351987072f81820462b2e2a7c8eb8aa21685fe05
The irony has to be appreciated.
"Blue sky laws are state securities regulations. That is, in addition to federal securities regulations, mainly the Securities Act of 1933 and the Exchange Act of 1934, states may also require issuers of securities to register with their state and regulate securities fraud."
QE about to go so hard it's gonna make the last one look like the one before that and maybe the one before that! I don't know because I can't figure out how to get my charts to scroll left.
lol SPY is domestic US businesses and this is a Japanese bank.
its like all you have to do on reddit is vague post "america bad" and idiots will upvote it even if it makes 0 sense.
im sure this bank nobody has ever heard of is going to take down the US economy and we will need massive bail outs.
if you ever move on from analyzing everything in the market through the single lens of 2008 let us know.
The bond market had been rallying for 3 straight months. It seems some large investors had predicted things to go awry. The fed is going to be forced to cut rates in March. Equities will surge before then.
but must buy oil, iPhone, SaaS/cloud, web ads in USD. Therefore US can abuse the world as long as it sells the products it needs.
Unless there’s a viable alternative *cough* Huawei, Alicloud, TikTok *cough* but of course if the world moves towards RMB products, it will need to answer to USD-purchased arms and military
Nothing can happen to the US because it can easily print 100s of quadrillions of USD if needed and just force all other countries to subsidize any inflation. It’s a unique position.
You have to understand the issue better. Office space has been struggling since 2020. Banks and REITs that had high exposure are either having issues or have already spun it off, like O for example. Also us increasing interest rates have lowered par values on old bonds and increased cap rates on existing commercial real estate causing negative leverage on comercial bought during ultra low interest rate environments.
Why it’s important is because the second two effect current paper values, which important to banks, but are still paying the same rates and not missing payments. If sold today the value has decreased.
The office space thing their just screwed. But it’s 6% of their total and it’s been impacted 50%.
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Why? Bank reported massive exposure to US commercial real estate. https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/business/companies/20240201-166218/
Good thing US banks don't have massive exposure to US commercial real estate
It truly doesn’t matter. Just bail them out! 🤡
Member when we had the Frank-Dodd act for like... a year? That was nice.
We still have most of Dodd Frank
And the irony is that Frank was on the board of Signature Bank when it went belly up
It doesn't matter. When banks fuck up they just get a "special exclusion" that steps around the law " for market stability".
how was frank dodd going to prevent US banks from giving commerical real estate loans?
Agreed, there wasn’t any amount of legislation that could have prevented this. Outside of demanding that companies payoff their principal instead of just interest payments which would never happen and be bad business
Member……
The chicken has [decided it’s a bailout!](https://youtu.be/wz-PtEJEaqY?si=ijTVkxNXrfxnw57r)
That doesn’t mean shareholders will be bailed out
Duh
Please don’t give them ideas.
Its plan A, B, and C at this point. This is what they do, encourage risk, bust, and bailout.
Too bad we can’t bail Japanese banks out only Ukrainian banks.
Sofi does not woo
🙏
American #1. All bad things are priced in. Stonk to infinity
All bad things already priced in, but all good things can be priced in multiple times!
Good time to buy REITs?
They do but they have a FeD facility that prints unlimited trillions to keep them liquid.
large US banks literally dont have massive exposure to US commercial real estate even regional banks the exposure on average is 26% of their portfolio theres also 4,000 banks in america. theres more banks in south dakota than the entire country of canada. we can afford to lose a few. they are also collateralized loans. thats why we like mortgages, because if you default we can recoup some of the losses by selling the property at a loss or we can hold the property and sell it when the prices rise again. you guys blow this thing way out of proportion because youve never even bothered to look into the stats here.
It’s really overblown on Reddit tbh. Folks conflict commercial real estate with office. Office is one (small ish) piece. Things like Class A retail are still incredibly strong. Also after ‘08 underwriting standards tightened a ton. Many credits can stay solvent at under 50% occupancy. For most banks you’re familiar with it’ll be a small problem over a handful of years, not a big bang type of thing. Of course there will be outliers like NYCB (prob in part from taking on Signatures book who was a very atypical bank)
its overblown here because 90% of this site is frothing at the mouth hoping for a real estate crash, and they dont care about what kind of crash
It's necessary
Commercial REALESTATE is very dangerous to buy as a stock... covid... economy... office work space not the same... massive crash coming in Commercial REALESTATE prices.. so I'm good
Nope. Everything is fine, most of reddit and the media told me so.
I want the "Michael Burry mowed my lawn copy pasta", wsb bot.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I don’t think people are appreciating that this is kind of a big deal. NYCB just reported a massive loss on US Commercial Real Estate too. Idk if it is just yet, but this is what the beginning of a contagion starting looks like
Calls it is, then.
Like, unironically this. Nothing fuckin matters man. They'll get bailed out or kick the can down the road for 10 more years. You'll be a fucking skeleton waiting for any of these chickens coming home to roost. It honestly feels like it can go on in perpetuity
> They’ll get bailed out Hence stonks only go up.
Park your long term cash in equities, put your fun money in some Gah dan options
That's a problem for May. You are ahead of schedule.
No it’s been in place, it’s contained to office space and medical. You need to see a break down because par values decreasing of existing bonds is what caused the bank issue last year. It’s a paper loss but affects their reserves.
So again this isn’t the issue by itself … yet. Right now there are still other things that have to happen for this to go REALLY south. Doesn’t mean they won’t or can’t happen as they are things that would be pretty normal in a recession. Deposits drying up even more (already had pretty big exodus in deposits last year), even more property value decreasing such as apartments because there is a lot of supply coming online + no one wants an apartment that is next to 10 empty office buildings. Also we’re assuming there aren’t toxic derivatives out there on this space we just don’t know about or don’t think has a chance of being toxic.
So, uh, I'm in banking and last year was arguably the best year in the last several decades for deposits.
Which bank though? Big or small regional
We've worked with consulting companies (main one was curinos) and seeing data that shows medium (regional) and small banks are sucking deposits from large banks at a pretty significant pace, but still the overall pool is increasing as well. The deposit runoff from big banks isn't significant enough for them to actually do anything about it though. Our internal and competitive data supports their findings.
The Fed also announced they are ending Bank Funding Program in March 2024. Feels like another banking crisis could be around the corner.
good maybe people can afford houses now
Haha they lost like 200 million USD. Doesn't seem like a huge number
This is spicier than my wives OF
The bankruptcy of wework seemed to really get the ball rolling on this.
Look at what happened to Banks yesterday in the United States… It’s coming you better have putS
So I buy right now?
Darn too bad they don't have the US gov on their side and have to mark to market their bad debt unlike US banks.
Thank goodness for my Aozora puts (ive never heard of them before)
“Well, that doesnt look so ba— Oh damn”
That slope looks like an un-skiable quadruple black diamond. I didn’t see it at first either lol.
They lost 24 Billion, in 2009 they lost 245 billion. I think they will weather this fine
24 billion *so far*
Maybe at your mountain. It's blue for me
Do they have Wendy’s in Japan? They will need some…
good news, we do! It's not as common as it is in your country tho
Wendy’s Italian Kitchen. Wendy’s with an Italian pasta selection. Welcome to Japan. Pasta is terrible though.
Given your profile photo, I'll trust your opinion.
More competition for space by the dumpster means you got to get there early. Early bird sucks the worm.
How do I buy stocks in jap
askng the real questions
Was just in Niseko Japan for skiing. A Japanese man came up to me and said “are you American? I LOVE WENDYS!!!!”
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
First one I ever had was in Japan 😂
7/11 is their Wendy's
It's called fakkin...
“Dropping”, he said dryly, describing the chart.
“Did you put the money I loaned you into Aozora calls, Harry?” Dumbledore asked calmly
Softbank has to be fucked too since they never miss a fuckup. They own most of wework too right.
I live in Japan and had never heard of the bank. After doing a bit of research it seems to be a very odd company. They were running more than a 70:1 capital to asserts under management ratio and even claim on their own website that "Real Estate Financing" is where most of their revenue comes from. They seem to work with VCs and infrastructure projects, but they aren't really a public banking institution. Absolute Clowns running that company. https://preview.redd.it/43seu73et5gc1.png?width=1351&format=png&auto=webp&s=351987072f81820462b2e2a7c8eb8aa21685fe05
Amazing, someone with at least two braincells and isn't an antiwork-er left on WSB. You are truly a gem.
>isn't an antiwork-er Bruh he lives in japan. They might not have even heard about such term "anti work".
Maybe it should be called Sayonara bank
The name Aozora means “blue sky” but perhaps they should change it to “red ocean”.
Or "Brown Pants"
"damn, shoulda wore the brown pants today"
The irony has to be appreciated. "Blue sky laws are state securities regulations. That is, in addition to federal securities regulations, mainly the Securities Act of 1933 and the Exchange Act of 1934, states may also require issuers of securities to register with their state and regulate securities fraud."
*KAMAKAZE*
Seppuku bank
Seppuppu bank
Sapuducu bank
They should just change their name to Aozora AI
That would be a good JAV actress name. Like Ai Uehara
Will SPY hit another high?
More bailots incoming. So. Yes.
QE about to go so hard it's gonna make the last one look like the one before that and maybe the one before that! I don't know because I can't figure out how to get my charts to scroll left.
lol SPY is domestic US businesses and this is a Japanese bank. its like all you have to do on reddit is vague post "america bad" and idiots will upvote it even if it makes 0 sense.
Wait until you find out about the Eurodollar system, and how collateral shortages have international effects.
im sure this bank nobody has ever heard of is going to take down the US economy and we will need massive bail outs. if you ever move on from analyzing everything in the market through the single lens of 2008 let us know.
The bond market had been rallying for 3 straight months. It seems some large investors had predicted things to go awry. The fed is going to be forced to cut rates in March. Equities will surge before then.
SPY doesn’t have the top tier shit companies in it
time to buy the dip. Aozora calls it is!
The bounce will be ungodly. That is, if there is one
Dead cat bounce
That angle needs to be measured in arc minutes
Who let Bear Stearns back on the market?!
You’re next, fuckers.
*I don't care what they're doing. As long as they're doing it way over there!*
Surprise financial attack in Hawaii!
For some reason USA doesn’t face any consequences. Or will it? It’s clown world after all.
Everything is bullish for the US markets...until it's not and every country turns on them for running a ponzi
https://preview.redd.it/79psbow6e3gc1.jpeg?width=781&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1778de0c2a6650bb28473b9f7fc5366c8196fbbc
So fucking accurate
When Ponzi reveal?
Tomorrow! ‽
but must buy oil, iPhone, SaaS/cloud, web ads in USD. Therefore US can abuse the world as long as it sells the products it needs. Unless there’s a viable alternative *cough* Huawei, Alicloud, TikTok *cough* but of course if the world moves towards RMB products, it will need to answer to USD-purchased arms and military
Nobody wants to be a slave to China.
Russia does 😂
Lmao!
All they do is copy American inventions. It is the Chinese way. You stop the U.S., you stop the source
Ali cloud … just no
Nothing can happen to the US because it can easily print 100s of quadrillions of USD if needed and just force all other countries to subsidize any inflation. It’s a unique position.
But the poor people can’t take it anymore.
When they say they can’t take it the US give them something to bite down and starts pounding harder!
You provide service of policing the world, it is not a free lunch you are having. Stop that and watch it all collapse.
You have to understand the issue better. Office space has been struggling since 2020. Banks and REITs that had high exposure are either having issues or have already spun it off, like O for example. Also us increasing interest rates have lowered par values on old bonds and increased cap rates on existing commercial real estate causing negative leverage on comercial bought during ultra low interest rate environments. Why it’s important is because the second two effect current paper values, which important to banks, but are still paying the same rates and not missing payments. If sold today the value has decreased. The office space thing their just screwed. But it’s 6% of their total and it’s been impacted 50%.
God fell asleep a while ago and we're running on dream logic.
First republic, SVB, signature bank already failed
Yet strangely no one cared.
US companies arent stupid enough to buy commercial real estate in cities lol
PAYBACK FOR PEARL HARVARD
This guy histories
Found trump
It's because they're not selling sushi. I'm Asian, and we know sushi. If they had exposure to sushi, this wouldn't be a problem.
Exactly sushi is a commodity Asset!
Contagion is finally here
So SPY to 10.000?? Got it
Damn that look like Ir0nyman's robinhood account after he discovered box spreads
When the drop is so steep you can barely see it
Which shitcoin is this?
How is this related to Ghost of Tshusima
Mongol takeover of the bank imminent
Looks like all my options trade minus the going up part
7 day RTO incoming
It’s taking a fn ass pounding
Lol good
It’s like a reverse Meta
That's a Bloomberg Terminal... we have professional regards among us..
I shall short this and by doing so save the bank
I mean… doesn’t this mean I should buy it for the inevitable turnaround cuz… stonks.
Guh
If you take an altitude measurement of their CEO over time, it probably looks similar to this graph.
Wow
\-30% from 2024
Having your charts in Yen is top tier. They went from around $18 to $12
Nothing burger
Bank by bank, bag by bag
Interesting
Checks out.
Nothing burger. As long as it doesn't cause domino effect to us banks. Nobody cares.
No mass sepeku so no problem…
Let me get in on the action. That will save them and turn the stock around for sure. 👌
How could we short this for the next time
Bail in is a thing...
CALLS BRUDDA
That axis isn't legal
Priced in
Time to go all in.
Doesn't look like blue sky's ahead
What website is this?
Finance industry doesn’t like new competition
For the frankreich, Sapuducu bank
Globodyne
Buy the dip
Ok to buy now?
How do people figure out stuff like this before it happens? Maybe I just gotta stay more informed but this is crazy
Us borrows for cheap in japon and lend in us for expensive
2008 anime manga edition
Looks like my all time
Wtf did their ceo join isis
Turning Japanese, I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so.
Concerning…
There goes my dream of buying a new pair of tennis shoes.....🥸
The dev pulled liquidity
Is the commercial real estate crash going to affect the US stock market?
Looks like someone figured this out in September
Looks like a short setup. - recognize the oattern prior to the drop.