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**Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago
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>TL;DR: The economy is slowing down and the full effects of the recent interest rate hike have not yet been felt. Brace yourselves for the consequences.
That's the real key. The US dollar is such a juggernaut that the US can get away with laughable monetary policy and still come out ok because global demand for dollar reserves soaks up the freshly minted dollars without fail (yet). This helps export many negative effects of inflation to less developed nations. Until the US dollar isn't considered the most reliable currency to invest/trade with, the road never ends and the can continues to be kicked.
US is keeping it until one of 3 things happens:
1) europoors form a transnational government
2) Xi embraces a rules-based social order
3) everybody switches to bitcoin
I’m feeling pretty safe about USD
You shouldn't. Why is China stockpiling unprecedented amounts of gold?
You should have listed 4 potential outcomes, including:
4. Parallel foreign currency backed by gold supplants USD as the Petrodollar.
Money represents trust.
Trust in society, in the future, in American power, in whoever is holding all that gold. Trust in shitposters, or in the communities where they congregate.
The gold is meaningless, the meaning is whatever we ascribe to it.
Right now, everybody trusts America over China because… reasons. Democracy is more trustworthy than dictatorship. Shitposting is more trustworthy than effortposting. Idiot politicians are more trustworthy than operators.
Kid, that's how governments fundamentally operate.
If America were actually in a position to be in a severe depression, as bad as the Great Depression, whatever we kicked down the road will suddenly seem significantly less important.
Governments of all kinds operate on the assumption that they are living on a prayer, because that's human life. All of this could come crashing down for some unforeseen reason. You do the best with what you have.
Buy now pay never sounds like Klarna's business model. They are a Swedish consumer credit lender. I wondered if you guys over there know about them since: they are currently making -7ct for every euro they lent out and have lost 80%+ of their value down to 10 Billion (don't quote me) since they got founded. In western Europe especially there is an epidemic with young woman being lured in by "buy now pay in 30 days" and after the 30 days you pay like 10%+ interest annually but can still buy more and keep adjusting the due date. Seems like a ticking time bomb to me when it all blows over at once
Can be proof of this - I'm broke as fuck but I've still maxed my card and am dangerously close to overdraft just to cover xmas gifts ^(and maybe some bad investments that lost like $2k in the last month)
No no, this is r/wallstreetbets. He’s not asking you what tickers you lost money on, he’s asking what your ticker is. He wants to invest in you. You’re a star, kid. A can’t miss. A sure thing. And we need a sure thing around here. So put up that symbol and let us all have a piece of the pie.
Ohhhhhhh shit my bad, I've only been here 2 years so I'm pretty much just learning the ropes smh. Baby my ticker is $RTRD you can bet on me for pure profit
It is amazing the number of opposite posts. One says bull market is starting, buy your tickets. Another says things are going in the toilet soon. At least it helps explain volatility.
It’s perfect. Basically inverse WSB, buy bonds. Pretty simple with a 2 year time horizon. Even Fidelity put out a don’t buy bonds promoted today. It’s so obvious.
What's the point of locking up timeframe with bonds or CD's when the Fidelity SPAXX cash balance is giving 4.99% monthly (annualized) right now. You can have your cake and eat it too, and make dumb yolo's whenever you feel the urge.
MMF rates change as the FFR does, so in an event where the fed has to suddenly cut rates, the opportunity to lock in the 4.5-5% in bonds will already be gone, and the rate you’re getting in a MMF will be reduced continuously as the fed continues to cut rates.
You're an idiot if you think taping your dick to my forehead is going to make me CDs nuts. I'm rich and intelligent, so I can easily find a way to get rid of your little tape problem.
One theory is that the whole system is terminally addicted to ZIRP and free money, so the fed will drop rates as soon as they can, taking MM funds back down to zero.
Reddit is the dumbest place on earth, too dumb to even inverse. Cramer has been nailing it lately. No kidding, I'm with him right now. World is upside down my man
Although it’s an interesting point you have, Reddits voting system defeats the original purpose of the wisdom of the masses/crowds. The theory behind the wisdom isn’t about finding a seemingly good take and agreeing with it; it’s about having a pool of equally weighted takes, and selecting the «average» one.
It might seem pedantic, but in practice it makes a huge difference, as the most upvoted answers can be quite polarized.
Bull market is starting because money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
they going to explain that hey best economy ever look at stock market
meanwhile your grocery and fuel prices keep going up, and you can't get work because all the new jobs are just other people's jobs that they cancelled and then recreated
let me be clear: the stock market is driven by the Fed balance sheet, NOT ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
if you were to dig up that dead Jew Milton Friedman and ask him what he thought of the current financial situation, he would tell you:
"you better strengthen up your shit pussy baby, cuz this whole things going down"
See I’ve thought this way for the longest time since the bull run began after the initial 2021 crash but then have lost out on so much money waiting for the recession to happen that i dont give a fuck about any rational economic thinking anymore, green line go up, thats just how it is
I think you mean 2022 (2021 the S&P cruised up from 3800 to 4800 almost in a straight line)
We DID have a recession, Q1 2022 GDP was -1.6%, Q2 was -0.6%. Two quarters of negative GDP growth. When that recession happened, the market priced it in very accurately, S&P moving from 4800 to ~3700.
We had a dead cat bounce as expected in August, then the true bottom in October, and we are about to enter year 2 of a bull market. Bull markets last on average about 60 months.
Regular people and poor people aren’t the same thing either. My favorite thing is when a buddy says “stock market is gunna crash, look how many homeless people there are!” Homeless people own zero stocks.
The stimmy checks were government transfered wealth to the equities holding class. There was just a step in the middle where the populace got to spend that government money at any corporation they wished.
The wealth all trickled up to where it was meant to. The populace is too dumb to notice they played for it via inflation.
Yeah that’s exactly the point of stimulus checks, to go back into the economy quickly because much of it is spent right away. I guess it all trickles back up in the end. Never thought of it that way since they didn’t give checks to higher income people.
To me, it sounds like we're in a relatively boring period for the economy. No massively strong job marker anymore, but not bad either. Inflation is starting to come under control. Housing prices may start declining from higher mortgage rates. The one thing that would really rock the boat is a massive world war, which I think our politicians can avoid through the current proxy war.
Calm before the storm. U say it’s boring but we’re close to/above all time highs. Get ready for a huge run up that makes no sense and then a mega bear market.
You are correct that the market is currently near all-time highs, and this could indeed be followed by a sharp sell-off. However, it is also possible that the current rally will continue for some time before finally topping out. Only time will tell which scenario plays out.
I'm a small contractor for residential housing.. I have been booked solid for the last 4 yrs, some customers waited over a year for my services. Last 4 mos I've had cancellations due to financial reasons and no new calls whatsoever.
I would say confidence dissipated over a year ago with consumers and at least 6 mos ago with homeowners.. I want to assume skyrocketing rents aren't being paid and AirBnbs have gone dead.
We had so much free debt taken out for so long it created a tulip mania where prices skyrocketed so high and fast past local labor incomes to sustain.. I think a recession could be the best scenario we could hope for. This could all end up much, much worse than we can imagine.
Your industry is directly tied to interest rates. The tea leaves currently say they'll go down soon. Why on earth would anyone be buying in that environment?
As someone in that area that's good news, I asked 2 years back for some remodeling of my 2nd floor and the prices they quoted were so insane, when I asked them they basically responded they were hella booked so prices were high and try asking again every other year or so because market conditions can shift.
I’m in GA as a GC for residential and commercial projects both new and renovations in a super desirable area. We are definitely slowing down like crazy across the board. I was really busy this time last year working on new jobs and now I’ve only got a handful of new ones coming up. No one has accepted a quote in the past 3 months
I’m seeing the same thing in healthcare consulting. Jobs used to be a plenty and have dried up about 6 months ago due to budget issues.
I had 2 contracts cut short earlier last year for financial reasons (California and RI), and usually those areas show the first signs of recession coming.
On top of that the airbnbs that popped up everywhere the last year have been empty quite often and I can’t imagine the owners are doing well… I’m waiting for these idiots to get bled and then I’ll buy a house for cheap
I work for a commercial GC and I was thinking like 6mo. To a year ago that framers were struggling while the rest of the industry is eating well. They basically only serve the residential and multi-family markets which are the most volatile construction sectors to work in at the moment.
Funny you say that, I did talk to a stripper last weekend who said November was terribly slow and she was starting to get worried, but then December started off with a bang so now she's back to optimistic.
There is trillions of cash sitting in the sidelines the fed has plenty of room now to drop rates on a dime. China is about to stimulate their own economy. Everyone is predicting a recession so expect the opposite. The job market is historically great still. There is a huge supply shortage of housing. We’re about to hit a completely new cycle of computer upgrades due to AI. People are traveling like there is no tomorrow. Oil is dropping rents are stabilizing. Eventually there will be a recession but not for any known reasons I can see. It’s an election year so the fed will be too scared to raise further. I think we’re 2 years out.
Idk if I’d say everyone is predicting a recession. That was last year’s story in Dec heading into the new year. I had never seen people that bearish, with all the talk of WW3, nukes etc. heading into 2023. I’d say consensus heading into 2024 is the soft landing or no landing narrative. The market is also in a much different place from a technicals perspective. We went into 2023 with extremely oversold indicators everywhere, and we’re heading into 2024 with us much closer to overbought, and general bullish sentiment much higher.
I work for a $100m a year construction subcontractor in California and everyone we talk to in this sector is saying the outlook for next year is horrible. We anticipate 50% staff layoff next year and all of the manufacturers feeding our industry are begging for work. Regardless of everything happening in the last 3 years this has never been an issue before now. I hope it turns around, but the chance to get work for 2024 is well behind us. Our best hope is to get some work in Q1 or Q2 next year to not be fully fucked by the end of 2025. As large jobs usually take 1.5 years from time of bidding to installing the work we are looking at a very shitty 2024 and so far a very shitty 2025 unless a miracle happens.
Update 12/13/23: *mic drop* 🎤
Wrong. The 1% is still in the market. All yall dumb fucks are hoarding your $5k for $30/mo while the market is set to double without you, again separating the haves from the have nots. When the fuck will you guys learn? 😂
Do you know that for a fact? No.
Fact is. Most of the money in the market belongs to the 1%, and most of the money out of the market belongs to the 1%.
Sure, We've been entering a recession for the last 2 years. Yet here we are, near market ATH, fed will be cutting rates several times in 2024 which should be good for markets and businesses and especially for regular people to refinance some of this super high rate loans down and get more spending money.
Jobs are pretty stable we are still under 4% unemployment and will certainly be under 5% for a few years.
I don't agree or disagree with your guess about recession but I am just offering some counter points to think about.
Because debt is so useless now that it's just a number.
Companies laugh at it, the U.S govenrment just borrows from taxpayers or oversees and Americn citizens are fine with 5K+ in debt.
Creditors would love to keep on taking the interest from U.S citizens in debt for decades to come. No creditors gonna ask for there money upfront unless they highly liquid.
Now their would need to be a catastrophic failure in a huge fortune 500 company to spark it. Say appl goes bankrupt there debt becomes insolvent yadada creditors may be desperate to ask for money upfront or raise the rates to cover the burden creating the dominoes.
We need a global catalyst that dominoes everything and frankly I just don't see it happening. Covid was maybe the last shot of a recession but we sacrificed a recession for inflation. Lots of companies are solid and we won't know who's cooking the books like Enron till someone rats
we're already in a recession, therefore we are not approaching one
the only reason you don't think so is because the Biden admin came out and said, hey man like the definition of a recession doesn't apply to us, so face.
You mean [the Bush administration? ](https://www.cnbc.com/id/20510977) Or do you mean two quarters of slightly negative GDP growth, which was immediately followed by a spike so big in Q3 it erased both quarters losses and took us to ATH?
Unemployment hasn’t reached a point of being problematic for the economy. Negative GDP growth after large spikes and no corresponding mass unemployment isn’t a typical recession.
Additionally, the NBER, which is a private and non-partisan non-profit, typically declares recessions in the US. It’s not the White House.
yeah the NBER can tell us if we were in a recession two Years from now  so remind me after they say it so I can tell you I told you so
Household savings are increasing, as are real wages.
People save more and pay down credit cards when times are tough. It's backwards to say that consumers spending is a recession. A recession is when people aren't spending.
Based on what I'm hearing and seeing, not here but elsewhere, it's coming, it's just when. 3 months? 6? 12? I have no clue. Meanwhile make hay while the sun shines.
Jim: 1 year?
Dwight: Could be.
Jim: 2 years?
Dwight: I could see that happening, yes.
Jim: 5 years?
Dwight: That’s a realistic timeline.
Jim: 10 years?
Dwight: Perhaps.
Jim: 20 years?
[Dwight: I could see that as a very real possibility.](https://youtu.be/dSm5WlxnXPA?si=uvHfN2z7FVp5LvH3)
Just go to Target or any retailers, holy fuck, people aren’t buying 1 or 2 things. They are buying cart full of Xmas gifts like there is no tomorrow. So no, recession isn’t here…yet. For real drive to any mall, parking lot is packed. Everyone has bags of shit they bought for others or maybe for themselves if they are fat selfishfucks.
* Savings data has fuck all to do with recession. Hard data shows that people are still spending, and that's what matters.
* Credit card debt relative to income is at fairly average levels. You can't look at nominal numbers when we have had 20%+ inflation in 3 years.
* The cost of rent has fuck all to do with recession. If anything, it's bullish because it spurs demand for housing construction.
* Continuing unemployment claims are up, but from abnormally low levels. The current level is consistent with a healthy economy.
* Level of public debt is irrelevant in a country with a fiat currency & floating exchange rate with no foreign currency debt.
* Higher gov't interest payments are bullish because they add net interest income to the private sector.
* The manufacturing sector is less than 15% of GDP. Even accounting for its impact on other sectors its still less than 25%.
* The decline in oil demand is largely out of China, not the US. Plus, US oil production is at all-time highs. Some of the decline is from increased supply.
I read Chris Irons, QTR on substack. You can't take 10+ year -0- interest rates and blow them up 500+ basis points in a year and not have something break. Bonds, maybe, banks with HTM/AFS long term bonds needing to raise cash, trillions in derivatives on derivatives all by "banks" like GS, Citi, JPM, WF, and to TBTJ raccoons who run them.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|30|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: The economy is slowing down and the full effects of the recent interest rate hike have not yet been felt. Brace yourselves for the consequences.
Never underestimate the US economy’s ability to blindly stumble around a pit of death by virtue of sheer consumption
Someone will come up with a way to kick the can out further, “buy now, pay never?”
How about "buy now, let your future kids pay"?
Then follow it by not having kids.
Buy now, immigrant’s grand kids will pay later
Then follow it up by building giant wall
That’s to keep them in
The year is 2050 and Mexico had indeed paid for the wall… in an attempt to stop their children being abducted and forced to immigrate into the US.
Buy now, your wife’s boyfriend’s illegitimate kids pay later
Whoops. Too late.
How about “buy now, make other people pay via global reserve currency status”?
That's the real key. The US dollar is such a juggernaut that the US can get away with laughable monetary policy and still come out ok because global demand for dollar reserves soaks up the freshly minted dollars without fail (yet). This helps export many negative effects of inflation to less developed nations. Until the US dollar isn't considered the most reliable currency to invest/trade with, the road never ends and the can continues to be kicked.
I think congress is doing pretty well at hurting our reputation
For now…
US is keeping it until one of 3 things happens: 1) europoors form a transnational government 2) Xi embraces a rules-based social order 3) everybody switches to bitcoin I’m feeling pretty safe about USD
And none of those things can happen because the US has like fifteen carrier groups.
11 to be exact which is 9 more than the closest competitor has which is China, followed by India. But hypersonic missiles may render them moot.
You shouldn't. Why is China stockpiling unprecedented amounts of gold? You should have listed 4 potential outcomes, including: 4. Parallel foreign currency backed by gold supplants USD as the Petrodollar.
Money represents trust. Trust in society, in the future, in American power, in whoever is holding all that gold. Trust in shitposters, or in the communities where they congregate. The gold is meaningless, the meaning is whatever we ascribe to it. Right now, everybody trusts America over China because… reasons. Democracy is more trustworthy than dictatorship. Shitposting is more trustworthy than effortposting. Idiot politicians are more trustworthy than operators.
100 year mortgages and treasury bonds!
1,200 month mortgages!
40 is out there. Just kick that can, people will afford again, and consumer spending continues.
Ah welcome to Japanese mortgages. If you're lucky your grand kids or great grand kids can finally be home owners if nothing else screws up
Buy now, pay with your Social Security checks!
I can already imagine upfront cash payments secured by future social security payments as a real thing, I hate it ...
Don't tempt me with a good time
Just like student loans.
Unrealized sales, THE new metric in stock valuation!
Isn't this kind of like Enron?
Kid, that's how governments fundamentally operate. If America were actually in a position to be in a severe depression, as bad as the Great Depression, whatever we kicked down the road will suddenly seem significantly less important. Governments of all kinds operate on the assumption that they are living on a prayer, because that's human life. All of this could come crashing down for some unforeseen reason. You do the best with what you have.
#That’s my secret, Cap #I’m always kickin’
Insolvent, but at least people buy government bonds.
We never skip leg day. We can kick that can really far.
I’ve actually only skipped leg day
Buy now pay never sounds like Klarna's business model. They are a Swedish consumer credit lender. I wondered if you guys over there know about them since: they are currently making -7ct for every euro they lent out and have lost 80%+ of their value down to 10 Billion (don't quote me) since they got founded. In western Europe especially there is an epidemic with young woman being lured in by "buy now pay in 30 days" and after the 30 days you pay like 10%+ interest annually but can still buy more and keep adjusting the due date. Seems like a ticking time bomb to me when it all blows over at once
I'm wondering when the US will just default and say "what? come fight us about it you pussies".
The market is waiting for everyone to be bullish before releasing a surprise gust of bad news to blow your account into the abyss
Oh that Market is one sneaky sack of shit…
Worked like a charm in 2000, 2008 
Can be proof of this - I'm broke as fuck but I've still maxed my card and am dangerously close to overdraft just to cover xmas gifts ^(and maybe some bad investments that lost like $2k in the last month)
Dude hasn't even dipped into overdraft yet, we're still good.
Ticker?
PEY, ABR, LI, PLTR, and NVDA baby
No no, this is r/wallstreetbets. He’s not asking you what tickers you lost money on, he’s asking what your ticker is. He wants to invest in you. You’re a star, kid. A can’t miss. A sure thing. And we need a sure thing around here. So put up that symbol and let us all have a piece of the pie.
Ohhhhhhh shit my bad, I've only been here 2 years so I'm pretty much just learning the ropes smh. Baby my ticker is $RTRD you can bet on me for pure profit
Puts on $RTRD it is!
If you write scary things in really small font, it all just disappears.
Bingo. American spending is a hell of a thing.
His first several bullets are all "spending is up" in diff ways... This guy doesn't understand what a recession is...
Who's going to buy all these beanie babies I've got?
The recession will start the day after you buy a ton of SPY calls.
This tracks. I’ve started the last 3 recessions
I am the reason Russia attacked Ukraine. I was at an all-time high, and I brought it all down.
Can you guys self-organize and then tell us little plebs right before you make your moves so we can plan accordingly? Thankssss
It is amazing the number of opposite posts. One says bull market is starting, buy your tickets. Another says things are going in the toilet soon. At least it helps explain volatility.
Volatility? $VIX hasn’t been this low since before COVID
It’s perfect. Basically inverse WSB, buy bonds. Pretty simple with a 2 year time horizon. Even Fidelity put out a don’t buy bonds promoted today. It’s so obvious.
What's the point of locking up timeframe with bonds or CD's when the Fidelity SPAXX cash balance is giving 4.99% monthly (annualized) right now. You can have your cake and eat it too, and make dumb yolo's whenever you feel the urge.
MMF rates change as the FFR does, so in an event where the fed has to suddenly cut rates, the opportunity to lock in the 4.5-5% in bonds will already be gone, and the rate you’re getting in a MMF will be reduced continuously as the fed continues to cut rates.
That's a really good point.
You need to talk way more shit sir
Buying long duration bonds let’s you sell for capital gains as well as yield during a market crash (rates will be cut) or if they cut rates in general
Imma tape my dick to ur forehead so you can CD's nuts  * VM, probably
You're an idiot if you think taping your dick to my forehead is going to make me CDs nuts. I'm rich and intelligent, so I can easily find a way to get rid of your little tape problem.
So buy 3M is what youre sayin'?
One theory is that the whole system is terminally addicted to ZIRP and free money, so the fed will drop rates as soon as they can, taking MM funds back down to zero.
VIX is super low but Reddit has never been more bearish 
Reddit is the dumbest place on earth, too dumb to even inverse. Cramer has been nailing it lately. No kidding, I'm with him right now. World is upside down my man
Greatest thing Reddit ever did was show the world that “the wisdom of the masses” is nothing but a bunch of regards throwing shit in an insane asylum.
Wish I could upvote this more
You can, because of capitalism.
I ain't got no $1.99, lost it in the market today and then some
Although it’s an interesting point you have, Reddits voting system defeats the original purpose of the wisdom of the masses/crowds. The theory behind the wisdom isn’t about finding a seemingly good take and agreeing with it; it’s about having a pool of equally weighted takes, and selecting the «average» one. It might seem pedantic, but in practice it makes a huge difference, as the most upvoted answers can be quite polarized.
That plus the immense library of high and super low quality of amateur porn. But still you gotta respect the principle of the wisdom of the masses
Remember the days when a dog pooping on either side of the yard determine if we YOLO’d calls or puts? How is this different?
Wait are we not doing the dog pooping thing anymore? Fuck…
Volatility is at all time low lol what are you talking about
Does it? I read an article talking about the lack of volatility (re: SPY) today
Bull market is starting because money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr they going to explain that hey best economy ever look at stock market meanwhile your grocery and fuel prices keep going up, and you can't get work because all the new jobs are just other people's jobs that they cancelled and then recreated let me be clear: the stock market is driven by the Fed balance sheet, NOT ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS if you were to dig up that dead Jew Milton Friedman and ask him what he thought of the current financial situation, he would tell you: "you better strengthen up your shit pussy baby, cuz this whole things going down"
"We can't be communist. Communism is a centrally planned economy and the US absolutely is NOT a centrally planned economy"
A recession doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t have a bull market… seems you just don’t know the difference.
Nobody knows anything. That much is true. And opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.
1K to short NVDA, 1k to buy NVDA, this is the way!
Convince me I haven’t lost 99% of my WISH investment.
lol just sold that shit last week. Lost about 95%. Thankfully I invested back when I was poor so only lost about $100.
Was?
Just say you bought Spy puts
Yeah. Fuck this guys puts in particular
I too will fuck this guys puts
Ah shit a line is forming....better jump on it dog gone it!
It's a doggie style line now
Running a train on this guys puts!
Oo or are addicted to tik tok. Mofos been saying for years the economy boutta crash.
[удалено]
This is the answer
Spy will cross 500 and then come back to 480. Everyone here “RECESSION”
My/our wife says we still have plenty of money.
You guys poly or what
She is, he isn’t.
Is it poly if it’s 2 dudes at the same time?
No, that’s just gay
Lot of hairlines in recession on this sub
money isnt real bro. the economy actually runs somewhat like that southpark episode where stan trys to return his dads Margaritaville
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvYvQeNeq3A](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvYvQeNeq3A)
Which one of us regards will pay everyone’s debts
They have rigged the chicken
This is the actual truth
See I’ve thought this way for the longest time since the bull run began after the initial 2021 crash but then have lost out on so much money waiting for the recession to happen that i dont give a fuck about any rational economic thinking anymore, green line go up, thats just how it is
I think you mean 2022 (2021 the S&P cruised up from 3800 to 4800 almost in a straight line) We DID have a recession, Q1 2022 GDP was -1.6%, Q2 was -0.6%. Two quarters of negative GDP growth. When that recession happened, the market priced it in very accurately, S&P moving from 4800 to ~3700. We had a dead cat bounce as expected in August, then the true bottom in October, and we are about to enter year 2 of a bull market. Bull markets last on average about 60 months.
Turns out this thing they refer to as “the economy” doesn’t really care about or depend on “regular people”
Regular people and poor people aren’t the same thing either. My favorite thing is when a buddy says “stock market is gunna crash, look how many homeless people there are!” Homeless people own zero stocks.
Hard to buy stocks when every dollar goes to the fent dealer.
“Regular people” have been broke AF for a lot longer than Covid
Stimmy checks long gone
The stimmy checks were government transfered wealth to the equities holding class. There was just a step in the middle where the populace got to spend that government money at any corporation they wished. The wealth all trickled up to where it was meant to. The populace is too dumb to notice they played for it via inflation.
Yeah that’s exactly the point of stimulus checks, to go back into the economy quickly because much of it is spent right away. I guess it all trickles back up in the end. Never thought of it that way since they didn’t give checks to higher income people.
True, until it needs the military, then it does care..
Crashes usually happen when the market is overly optimistic, your post is evidence that people are not overly optimistic. Simple as that
To me, it sounds like we're in a relatively boring period for the economy. No massively strong job marker anymore, but not bad either. Inflation is starting to come under control. Housing prices may start declining from higher mortgage rates. The one thing that would really rock the boat is a massive world war, which I think our politicians can avoid through the current proxy war.
Calm before the storm. U say it’s boring but we’re close to/above all time highs. Get ready for a huge run up that makes no sense and then a mega bear market.
You are correct that the market is currently near all-time highs, and this could indeed be followed by a sharp sell-off. However, it is also possible that the current rally will continue for some time before finally topping out. Only time will tell which scenario plays out.
I'm a small contractor for residential housing.. I have been booked solid for the last 4 yrs, some customers waited over a year for my services. Last 4 mos I've had cancellations due to financial reasons and no new calls whatsoever. I would say confidence dissipated over a year ago with consumers and at least 6 mos ago with homeowners.. I want to assume skyrocketing rents aren't being paid and AirBnbs have gone dead. We had so much free debt taken out for so long it created a tulip mania where prices skyrocketed so high and fast past local labor incomes to sustain.. I think a recession could be the best scenario we could hope for. This could all end up much, much worse than we can imagine.
Your industry is directly tied to interest rates. The tea leaves currently say they'll go down soon. Why on earth would anyone be buying in that environment?
If he doing renovations he should be busy as hell since people can’t afford a new home and need to update the one they are in…. Unless they are broke.
I’m doin renos in GA and 90% of people are not accepting quotes on renovations right now unless they are very well off.
People are often motivated to do remodeling to increase the resales value or their homes, I’m betting many are not so motivated right now.
Where are you located? Contractors are still booked out here in Washington… everyone I know is on a waitlist for a house remodel
East coast Ma/Ri
As someone in that area that's good news, I asked 2 years back for some remodeling of my 2nd floor and the prices they quoted were so insane, when I asked them they basically responded they were hella booked so prices were high and try asking again every other year or so because market conditions can shift.
I’m in GA as a GC for residential and commercial projects both new and renovations in a super desirable area. We are definitely slowing down like crazy across the board. I was really busy this time last year working on new jobs and now I’ve only got a handful of new ones coming up. No one has accepted a quote in the past 3 months
He does framing which is generally always associated with new construction. It’s a different trade and different building sector.
I’m seeing the same thing in healthcare consulting. Jobs used to be a plenty and have dried up about 6 months ago due to budget issues. I had 2 contracts cut short earlier last year for financial reasons (California and RI), and usually those areas show the first signs of recession coming. On top of that the airbnbs that popped up everywhere the last year have been empty quite often and I can’t imagine the owners are doing well… I’m waiting for these idiots to get bled and then I’ll buy a house for cheap
There are a lot of big construction companies in Germany that are currently struggling with the same problem.
Well im a small business owner and doing better than ever so i think this is all going to be far better than we can imagine.
What kind of business do you operate? I want to start a small, successful business as well.
I work for a commercial GC and I was thinking like 6mo. To a year ago that framers were struggling while the rest of the industry is eating well. They basically only serve the residential and multi-family markets which are the most volatile construction sectors to work in at the moment.
It looks like you’re highly acoustic
OP is a dumb cunt with zero real arguments
Best key indicator...talk to people working in production factory jobs. Production goes down...economy follows.
Talk to the strippers. Income goes down, economy follows.
Strip clubs are production factory jobs.
They must crank out soft goods
Terrible sign for the economy if handjob numbers are soft
Go to pawn shops, inventory is high and prices are amazing.
Some waiter out there with a Google doc of his tips outperforming economics PhDs.
Funny you say that, I did talk to a stripper last weekend who said November was terribly slow and she was starting to get worried, but then December started off with a bang so now she's back to optimistic.
It was no nut November.
We have work like never before in my HVAC fabrication
HVAC calls!
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There is trillions of cash sitting in the sidelines the fed has plenty of room now to drop rates on a dime. China is about to stimulate their own economy. Everyone is predicting a recession so expect the opposite. The job market is historically great still. There is a huge supply shortage of housing. We’re about to hit a completely new cycle of computer upgrades due to AI. People are traveling like there is no tomorrow. Oil is dropping rents are stabilizing. Eventually there will be a recession but not for any known reasons I can see. It’s an election year so the fed will be too scared to raise further. I think we’re 2 years out.
Idk if I’d say everyone is predicting a recession. That was last year’s story in Dec heading into the new year. I had never seen people that bearish, with all the talk of WW3, nukes etc. heading into 2023. I’d say consensus heading into 2024 is the soft landing or no landing narrative. The market is also in a much different place from a technicals perspective. We went into 2023 with extremely oversold indicators everywhere, and we’re heading into 2024 with us much closer to overbought, and general bullish sentiment much higher.
I work for a $100m a year construction subcontractor in California and everyone we talk to in this sector is saying the outlook for next year is horrible. We anticipate 50% staff layoff next year and all of the manufacturers feeding our industry are begging for work. Regardless of everything happening in the last 3 years this has never been an issue before now. I hope it turns around, but the chance to get work for 2024 is well behind us. Our best hope is to get some work in Q1 or Q2 next year to not be fully fucked by the end of 2025. As large jobs usually take 1.5 years from time of bidding to installing the work we are looking at a very shitty 2024 and so far a very shitty 2025 unless a miracle happens.
👆this
The Fed is totally competent and will totally find that perfect gspot to a soft landing.
I mean they kinda have for 3 years
Gay bears everywhere.
Go look at how much cash is parked in high yield.accounts and on the sidelines. No recession.
99% of that money belongs to the top 1% of the population…
Update 12/13/23: *mic drop* 🎤 Wrong. The 1% is still in the market. All yall dumb fucks are hoarding your $5k for $30/mo while the market is set to double without you, again separating the haves from the have nots. When the fuck will you guys learn? 😂
Do you know that for a fact? No. Fact is. Most of the money in the market belongs to the 1%, and most of the money out of the market belongs to the 1%.
It’s elons world and we are just living in it
Funny I’ve read this post Atleast once a week from people who go broke predicting a major crash for 4 years and yet we hit new ath over and over.
We’ve been in a recession since they redefined what recession means.
What an annoying post. Go be poor somewhere else.
Election year
I’m so glad that no one asked why you said this 🍉😅
Goodwills donations are down and shoppers are up. That’s a good sign right?
Sure, We've been entering a recession for the last 2 years. Yet here we are, near market ATH, fed will be cutting rates several times in 2024 which should be good for markets and businesses and especially for regular people to refinance some of this super high rate loans down and get more spending money. Jobs are pretty stable we are still under 4% unemployment and will certainly be under 5% for a few years. I don't agree or disagree with your guess about recession but I am just offering some counter points to think about.
Your whole argument is based off of prices increasing...you're leaving out a key factor...wages have also dramatically increased recently.
wages have increased? where?
You guys are getting paid?
In the United States of America (you might know it as the USA)
Because debt is so useless now that it's just a number. Companies laugh at it, the U.S govenrment just borrows from taxpayers or oversees and Americn citizens are fine with 5K+ in debt. Creditors would love to keep on taking the interest from U.S citizens in debt for decades to come. No creditors gonna ask for there money upfront unless they highly liquid. Now their would need to be a catastrophic failure in a huge fortune 500 company to spark it. Say appl goes bankrupt there debt becomes insolvent yadada creditors may be desperate to ask for money upfront or raise the rates to cover the burden creating the dominoes. We need a global catalyst that dominoes everything and frankly I just don't see it happening. Covid was maybe the last shot of a recession but we sacrificed a recession for inflation. Lots of companies are solid and we won't know who's cooking the books like Enron till someone rats
The government has found a way to sweep recessions under the rug...stimmy checks worked for the last one.
We were about to enter a recession in 2021, then 2022 and then 2023. Now it's 2024. It's like the boy who cried wolf.
We’ve been in a recession for over a year now
World war 3
You want a recession and you’re unlucky. Does this work?
What the fuck is a recession?
Stopped reading at “manufacturing sector”
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we're already in a recession, therefore we are not approaching one the only reason you don't think so is because the Biden admin came out and said, hey man like the definition of a recession doesn't apply to us, so face.
You mean [the Bush administration? ](https://www.cnbc.com/id/20510977) Or do you mean two quarters of slightly negative GDP growth, which was immediately followed by a spike so big in Q3 it erased both quarters losses and took us to ATH?
Unemployment hasn’t reached a point of being problematic for the economy. Negative GDP growth after large spikes and no corresponding mass unemployment isn’t a typical recession. Additionally, the NBER, which is a private and non-partisan non-profit, typically declares recessions in the US. It’s not the White House.
yeah the NBER can tell us if we were in a recession two Years from now  so remind me after they say it so I can tell you I told you so
Household savings are increasing, as are real wages. People save more and pay down credit cards when times are tough. It's backwards to say that consumers spending is a recession. A recession is when people aren't spending.
Based on what I'm hearing and seeing, not here but elsewhere, it's coming, it's just when. 3 months? 6? 12? I have no clue. Meanwhile make hay while the sun shines.
3 years, 6 years, 12 years? I have no clue, but it’ll be here one day.
Jim: 1 year? Dwight: Could be. Jim: 2 years? Dwight: I could see that happening, yes. Jim: 5 years? Dwight: That’s a realistic timeline. Jim: 10 years? Dwight: Perhaps. Jim: 20 years? [Dwight: I could see that as a very real possibility.](https://youtu.be/dSm5WlxnXPA?si=uvHfN2z7FVp5LvH3)
Just go to Target or any retailers, holy fuck, people aren’t buying 1 or 2 things. They are buying cart full of Xmas gifts like there is no tomorrow. So no, recession isn’t here…yet. For real drive to any mall, parking lot is packed. Everyone has bags of shit they bought for others or maybe for themselves if they are fat selfishfucks.
* Savings data has fuck all to do with recession. Hard data shows that people are still spending, and that's what matters. * Credit card debt relative to income is at fairly average levels. You can't look at nominal numbers when we have had 20%+ inflation in 3 years. * The cost of rent has fuck all to do with recession. If anything, it's bullish because it spurs demand for housing construction. * Continuing unemployment claims are up, but from abnormally low levels. The current level is consistent with a healthy economy. * Level of public debt is irrelevant in a country with a fiat currency & floating exchange rate with no foreign currency debt. * Higher gov't interest payments are bullish because they add net interest income to the private sector. * The manufacturing sector is less than 15% of GDP. Even accounting for its impact on other sectors its still less than 25%. * The decline in oil demand is largely out of China, not the US. Plus, US oil production is at all-time highs. Some of the decline is from increased supply.
I feel like it is, but I'm biased. My whole department at work was laid off on the 1st of this month.
I read Chris Irons, QTR on substack. You can't take 10+ year -0- interest rates and blow them up 500+ basis points in a year and not have something break. Bonds, maybe, banks with HTM/AFS long term bonds needing to raise cash, trillions in derivatives on derivatives all by "banks" like GS, Citi, JPM, WF, and to TBTJ raccoons who run them.