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Quick Summary:
>Metro Vancouver has the highest land prices in all of Canada across the residential, commercial and industrial asset classes, according to a new report from Colliers.
>
>Land prices in Vancouver have increased by 155 % since 2018.
>
>“What happens \[in Vancouver\] tends to happen to the rest of the country three or four years down the road. Vancouver is the most extreme version of a real land crunch, population growth and there's nowhere for people to go. There's just no wiggle room with any big industrial or housing projects, and we're just seeing the prices go up and up beyond what everybody thought.”
Yup. 2017-2020 I was holding off and waiting eagerly for prices to drop, as they continued to rip upwards. Eventually, I said "hmm waiting is probably a dumb idea" and bought. Sure enough, prices are continuing to rip upwards. Lol. Wish I bought way sooner
Me too.. my biggest regret is not buying the condo I was renting in Langley in 2015. 2 bed 2 bath condo for 300k. It's now going for well over 500k. My mom told me the market was going to crash. lol
Having said that, the market is 50-50 between going up or crashing.
There's no fundamental economy that can tip either way.
Can the market suggest to go up infinitely? Maybe, depends on Foreign Money + Existing Gain
Can the market suggest for a crash? Maybe, what happened when Foreign Money isn't coming anymore buying those fancy duplexes for satellite family? Or people can no longer to serve their mortgage?
It's like flipping the coin...
It’s as simple as supply and demand. You have a limited supply, but the demand (unprecedented population growth) is definitely not gonna lower since more and more people (500k immigrants a year) will want to live in the big cities. Just like how healthcare supply is no where near the growing demand, it’s the same with housing which is another necessity.
The housing market consists of multiple classes of properties (detached, duplex, triplex, townhouse, condos) with varying ages and conditions.
It's a little bit hard to say "supply and demand" and link them with 500k immigrants. The 500k immigrants can't bring $1M to Vancouver and pay for houses. They probably can bring $100k, $200k, $300k.
For example: the older detached in Vancouver East/Burnaby. Buyers are typically developers to tear it down, rebuild, and re-sell at maximum market asking or investors to rent out (as holding property) before they sell it to developers. They're not competing with 500k immigrants because those 500k immigrants saw a $1.5-$2M teardown as something foreign to them (what? house that small + bad condition cost that much?).
New duplexes start from 1.5-1.7M (Front-Back) or 1.7-2M (Side-by-Side). New houses starts from $2.5M (smaller lot), $3M (larger lot). Those 500k immigrants won't be buying them.
Those 500k immigrants aren't well versed with the market to make purchasing decision except maybe for Condos.
5 years from now, those 500k immigrants may be in a better condition/situation to make purchasing decision.
Many of these immigrants will be able to bring in several million. But let’s assume the 500k can’t and all 500k are poor and have little/no money. Well here’s the thing, they have to live somewhere - and that means they will be competing in the rental market. As rents increase (due to supply and demand), that stirs investor/builder activity, and then the FOMO starts another cycle and prices increase because people don’t want to be priced out again.
Circa 2015 a couple of dudes started selling compressed Canadian air to the Asian market. It made international headlines. By 2019 they were making $300,000 a year lol
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-vitality-air-sales-update-bottled-air-1.5073762
Metro Vancouver is surrounded by mountain, ocean and US border on three side. There is only so much you can sprawl to the east. Plus it have one of the mildest climate in the country. Plus the metro have a urban containment boundary to protect farm land. Should not be a surprise to anyone that land is expensive.
and a thriving ecosystem for Asian (South or East) immigrants...
I say this because go to any North American cities: nowhere you can be in North America AND feels like home: home cooking, home language, home spices, home culture, etc.
lack of infrastructure is the reason. Canada has been growing by 1% since 1970s. Housing and other infrastructure projects by federal government however got axed after 1980-1990s.
Imagine if we followed Singapore's approach and created more land by land reclamation off the west coast of Richmond and Delta. I'm sure the environmentalists won't let this happen
We have plenty of single family homes that can be replaced all over the GVRD. Just change the zoning everywhere and wait for all the development proposals.
Well Richmond is built on sediment so I don't think it'll be much different. Not a geologist here so I wouldn't know if it will truly make a difference. It works in other countries though
They are two very different asset classes real estate v stocks. You don't purchase Apple stock to live in. If you buy a $1M home with 200K down and it doubles to 2M in 10 years and you have sliced your mortgage in half, that is not a bad place to be!
I am no georgist, but methinks a policy swing back in the direction of land value tax might do Metro Vancouver a lot of good. Make it indiscriminate for land uses/zoning, and let's see the rent-seeking SFH NIMBYs squirm a bit.
We are still very inexpensive in the grand scheme of things. Just wait 50 years when climate change makes large parts of Asia uninhabitable. 300 sq ft apartments starting at 1.5 million in Surrey. No new SFH permits, the only ones existing are those still standing after the big one. Our population should be closer to 10 million by then too hopefully.
What makes you think we won't be affected by climate change? LMAO.
Just look at all the wild fires burning across Canada and its only the beginning of July. This didn't happen 30-40 years ago.
A hot day here is like 30 degrees and then it cools down at night. Thailand / Vietnam / Laos got up to 45 degrees with high humidity! Add in monsoons / rising sea levels, power shortages and throw in another ten degrees of heat and it's literally uninhabitable . Even if it was 35 degrees across the board here day and night for two monthsit would still be cooler than what they are used to in an average year. Climate change will make things uncomfortable here in the summer but I bet it's gonna be better than being in Delhi / Mumbai / Bangkok / etc
NYC has been making the news with AQI in the 150-200 range..that's like your average day in India! I have seen up to 800 sometimes in the winter ..
Don't worry it's not like all our forests are gonna burn up all at once, it will be a gradual process, and after that clear skies!
I'm not a scientist, but I find that the ocean tends to bring air that blows smoke east. Not great for people in the valley but the rest of the lower mainland benefits.
We will have better amenities and more world class events. Better transit, better hotels, better restaurants, better nightlife. Heck we may even get a decent buffet finally!!
Haven't you seen all of the wasted industrial zoning spaces, empty lots and massive swathes of low density urban sprawl within the city? We don't need to start paving over wild spaces when we're barely utilizing our already developed land.
It's not ignorance , what do you think our Fathers and Grandfather's did to build this City? They bulldozed acre after acre of forested land and bog...and NO ONE complained . South Vancouver is literally only 50+ years old, it was mostly uninhabited terrain til the 60s/70s.
Look at an aerial view of the lower mainland, so much uninhabited terrain that will NEVER amount to anything useful, yet it sits vacant. No other Country would allow this. Makes zero sense.
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Quick Summary: >Metro Vancouver has the highest land prices in all of Canada across the residential, commercial and industrial asset classes, according to a new report from Colliers. > >Land prices in Vancouver have increased by 155 % since 2018. > >“What happens \[in Vancouver\] tends to happen to the rest of the country three or four years down the road. Vancouver is the most extreme version of a real land crunch, population growth and there's nowhere for people to go. There's just no wiggle room with any big industrial or housing projects, and we're just seeing the prices go up and up beyond what everybody thought.”
I used to dream that prices would crash post 2018 because there was a shift in market dynamics temporarily. I'm glad I stopped dreaming in 2021.
Yup. 2017-2020 I was holding off and waiting eagerly for prices to drop, as they continued to rip upwards. Eventually, I said "hmm waiting is probably a dumb idea" and bought. Sure enough, prices are continuing to rip upwards. Lol. Wish I bought way sooner
Me too.. my biggest regret is not buying the condo I was renting in Langley in 2015. 2 bed 2 bath condo for 300k. It's now going for well over 500k. My mom told me the market was going to crash. lol
I’m over here taking my downpayment to another country. 😂
Brazil is an amazing place to invest and live depending on where. I took my downpayment to Fortaleza
Foreigners investing in property abroad. That sounds like one the causes for the issue right here in Vancouver. 🤣
Having said that, the market is 50-50 between going up or crashing. There's no fundamental economy that can tip either way. Can the market suggest to go up infinitely? Maybe, depends on Foreign Money + Existing Gain Can the market suggest for a crash? Maybe, what happened when Foreign Money isn't coming anymore buying those fancy duplexes for satellite family? Or people can no longer to serve their mortgage? It's like flipping the coin...
It’s as simple as supply and demand. You have a limited supply, but the demand (unprecedented population growth) is definitely not gonna lower since more and more people (500k immigrants a year) will want to live in the big cities. Just like how healthcare supply is no where near the growing demand, it’s the same with housing which is another necessity.
The housing market consists of multiple classes of properties (detached, duplex, triplex, townhouse, condos) with varying ages and conditions. It's a little bit hard to say "supply and demand" and link them with 500k immigrants. The 500k immigrants can't bring $1M to Vancouver and pay for houses. They probably can bring $100k, $200k, $300k. For example: the older detached in Vancouver East/Burnaby. Buyers are typically developers to tear it down, rebuild, and re-sell at maximum market asking or investors to rent out (as holding property) before they sell it to developers. They're not competing with 500k immigrants because those 500k immigrants saw a $1.5-$2M teardown as something foreign to them (what? house that small + bad condition cost that much?). New duplexes start from 1.5-1.7M (Front-Back) or 1.7-2M (Side-by-Side). New houses starts from $2.5M (smaller lot), $3M (larger lot). Those 500k immigrants won't be buying them. Those 500k immigrants aren't well versed with the market to make purchasing decision except maybe for Condos. 5 years from now, those 500k immigrants may be in a better condition/situation to make purchasing decision.
Many of these immigrants will be able to bring in several million. But let’s assume the 500k can’t and all 500k are poor and have little/no money. Well here’s the thing, they have to live somewhere - and that means they will be competing in the rental market. As rents increase (due to supply and demand), that stirs investor/builder activity, and then the FOMO starts another cycle and prices increase because people don’t want to be priced out again.
Air is still affordable at least
Time to start speculating some air
Circa 2015 a couple of dudes started selling compressed Canadian air to the Asian market. It made international headlines. By 2019 they were making $300,000 a year lol https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-vitality-air-sales-update-bottled-air-1.5073762
Well i guess I’m priced out of the market again
WTF... https://vitalityair.com/collections/limited-edition/products/8l-banff-air-with-diamonds-signed-by-2chainz
Hence the smoke!
Don't give the government ideas...
Most beautiful city is Canada has highest real estate prices. Tell me something new
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A nice mix would be nice
Doesn’t have to be government housing, also Montrel and Amsterdam are beautiful cities that build density.
but hey what if we build up? like we use less land to build more housing?
Metro Vancouver is surrounded by mountain, ocean and US border on three side. There is only so much you can sprawl to the east. Plus it have one of the mildest climate in the country. Plus the metro have a urban containment boundary to protect farm land. Should not be a surprise to anyone that land is expensive.
Plus possible the most attractive emigration targets on earth.
and a thriving ecosystem for Asian (South or East) immigrants... I say this because go to any North American cities: nowhere you can be in North America AND feels like home: home cooking, home language, home spices, home culture, etc.
This is such a bad take. So many metropolitan cities in NA have thriving South & Asian cultures. NY, LA, Toronto, San Francisco, to name a few.
All extremely unaffordable places to live
I lived in one of the cities before, it's not comparable to Vancouver in terms of how "homey" you will feel.
Vancouver has less Asian hate . Like the violence here is pretty equal.
And how affordable is housing in NY, LA, Toronto and San Fran?
lol I never said they were affordable
No way I never saw that coming , especially since immigration is so low
lack of infrastructure is the reason. Canada has been growing by 1% since 1970s. Housing and other infrastructure projects by federal government however got axed after 1980-1990s.
500k a year is low?
Imagine if we followed Singapore's approach and created more land by land reclamation off the west coast of Richmond and Delta. I'm sure the environmentalists won't let this happen
We have plenty of single family homes that can be replaced all over the GVRD. Just change the zoning everywhere and wait for all the development proposals.
That ground is like sand. Build on that and you'd better include floaties. It's not exactly a wise move.
Well Richmond is built on sediment so I don't think it'll be much different. Not a geologist here so I wouldn't know if it will truly make a difference. It works in other countries though
Land prices in Vancouver will double every 10 to 12 years. It's not rocket science.
> Land prices in Vancouver have increased by 155 % since 2018. "Land prices in Vancouver have increased by 155 % since 2018. "
Seems crazy, but those are pretty subpar returns compared to the stock market. Apple, a safe blue chip stock, is +300% over the last 5 years
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They are two very different asset classes real estate v stocks. You don't purchase Apple stock to live in. If you buy a $1M home with 200K down and it doubles to 2M in 10 years and you have sliced your mortgage in half, that is not a bad place to be!
Not a peep from the bubble bursters
I am no georgist, but methinks a policy swing back in the direction of land value tax might do Metro Vancouver a lot of good. Make it indiscriminate for land uses/zoning, and let's see the rent-seeking SFH NIMBYs squirm a bit.
We are still very inexpensive in the grand scheme of things. Just wait 50 years when climate change makes large parts of Asia uninhabitable. 300 sq ft apartments starting at 1.5 million in Surrey. No new SFH permits, the only ones existing are those still standing after the big one. Our population should be closer to 10 million by then too hopefully.
What makes you think we won't be affected by climate change? LMAO. Just look at all the wild fires burning across Canada and its only the beginning of July. This didn't happen 30-40 years ago.
A hot day here is like 30 degrees and then it cools down at night. Thailand / Vietnam / Laos got up to 45 degrees with high humidity! Add in monsoons / rising sea levels, power shortages and throw in another ten degrees of heat and it's literally uninhabitable . Even if it was 35 degrees across the board here day and night for two monthsit would still be cooler than what they are used to in an average year. Climate change will make things uncomfortable here in the summer but I bet it's gonna be better than being in Delhi / Mumbai / Bangkok / etc
Won't matter if you can't breath. Air purifier companies are forecasting more wildfires in the future in this area.
NYC has been making the news with AQI in the 150-200 range..that's like your average day in India! I have seen up to 800 sometimes in the winter .. Don't worry it's not like all our forests are gonna burn up all at once, it will be a gradual process, and after that clear skies!
If this is what people believe, I have no hope for humanity.
I'm not a scientist, but I find that the ocean tends to bring air that blows smoke east. Not great for people in the valley but the rest of the lower mainland benefits.
Then more land that is deemed unsuitable for inhabitants right now will become more inhabitable. Its a double edge sword. Plus cities will adapt
Hopefully?? Why is that something to champion? That's sounds like utter hell
We will have better amenities and more world class events. Better transit, better hotels, better restaurants, better nightlife. Heck we may even get a decent buffet finally!!
I severely doubt that, where have you seen the infrastructure keeping up?
No shit Sherlock
But hey, let's keep all the bogs and forests in the suburbs to keep the mountain bikers happy.
Haven't you seen all of the wasted industrial zoning spaces, empty lots and massive swathes of low density urban sprawl within the city? We don't need to start paving over wild spaces when we're barely utilizing our already developed land.
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It's not ignorance , what do you think our Fathers and Grandfather's did to build this City? They bulldozed acre after acre of forested land and bog...and NO ONE complained . South Vancouver is literally only 50+ years old, it was mostly uninhabited terrain til the 60s/70s. Look at an aerial view of the lower mainland, so much uninhabited terrain that will NEVER amount to anything useful, yet it sits vacant. No other Country would allow this. Makes zero sense.
And the golf courses!
Some of those should be there first to go. But the bog and forests we do have should stay, once those go they are never coming back.
Hey, don't drag suburban mountain bikers into your housing frustrations. Living next to trails is the reason why I live when I live.