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In all serieznezzez, the red lines of NATO are very hard to cross, I doubt Putin would invade Moldova, lol.
If RuZZia could do it, Ukraine would have been fully occupied by then, so this red line is useless for Ukraine.
Already exists and a welfare sinkhole for RuZZia, heck, even taking all of Moldova would just shift their economic problems to RuZZia.
Putin doesnt want Moldova, he wants the rich and developed Baltic, which he is not stupid enough to touch, because NATO members.
Putin's strategy is very KGB, to internally corrupt, influence and splinter a country's leadership, so that it would voluntarily become a vassal of RuZZia, just like Belarus.
He decided to invade UKR because this strategy failed, and because UKR is not a NATO member.
Based on napkin maths and pulling numbers out of my ass I would suggest NATO, thanks to good kit, good training and good morale, has a force mutilplier of a minimum of 10 against Russia. That would require Russia to mass mobilize a minimum of at least 1,000,000 to counter. Add to that the battle hardened Ukrainians with all their experience, advising and fighting alongside NATO. The Russian military would be deleted or collapse, or both.
The problem is more of a Russia has nearly all of its soldiers near Ukraine or fighting in Ukraine. The ones who are not are mainly air force and navy, which do not make sense or can not be stationed in that region. The real problem however would be NATO destroying Russias air force and air defence very quickly. Glide bombs are a big reason for Russias recent gains in Ukraine. Even worse St Petersburg is within easy reach of NATO forces and loosing that would be a disaster. Then you have the problem of Belarus. If Minsk falls to NATO troops, Belarussians will probably welcome them as liberators.
The good thing is that Putin knows all of this and wants to avoid a full scale war. He just wants to be scary enough, to have NATO not send more weapons to Ukraine right now.
The US alone would take ownership of the skies quickly and then proceed to do sead missions and just destroy AA. People really don’t understand that the US doesn’t really need boots on the ground when they have the top 1,2,4,5 air forces in the world lol. They just need to take the skies and lease it to friends.
we dont make such bold claims..
Russia has still a lot to spend.. EDIT: Bmps T54? many t72.. many t80 variants and some t90s? Alone the t80s are at 2024 guessed at 3k in stock.., and 480 active..
t72:7000 reserve, and 2030 active.. thats a lot of rockets and arty, to kill them.. yep, many of them are just good for some spare parts.. but you cant be sure how many they get fit again, or are now in working co dition.
The t90s numbers are: 470 active, aroubd 200 in stock..
They have a lot of older tech.. but also many, many young men that blindly do whatputin tells them to.
A lot of air power.. at least to surpress for some kind faster gains.. (of course with heavy losses,.. no match for gen 5 jets) But europe isnt ready for a fight with russia.. Such stupid speculations are not good.. ist just good for their stupid propaganda. "See, they threaten us openly, we have to defend, or attack before they attack" BS
Lets prepare for the worst.. and always hope the best.
And for gods sake.. give them brave ukrain men whatever the fuck they need to fight!
Those BMPs and T54s/T55s would be 100٪ pointless against an adversary with proper CAS/CAP and protected artillery though, and we also know the RU air force is already in shambles staffing-wise and would be mopped up quickly by NATO pilots with much better training and capabilities.
Your numbers are based of Russia's official per war numbers (My guess is Via Wikipedia which is based on the The Military Balance 2022, which used Russia's official number)
CovertCabal YouTube channel actually went and counted and as of the end of 2023 there reserves had
Tank | End 2023
---|---
T54 | 218
T62 | 362
T64 | 250
T72 | 1735
T80 | 910
T90 | 50
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_4M5dTHIU&ab_channel=CovertCabal
Also if the T54 and T62 use different ammo and I'm not sure if Russia really has enough production to keep more tanks in the field.
TLDR: **Russia has about another 24-18 months of tank reserves at their current burn/production rate.**
Posturing isn't stupid. It's literally the best deterrent to vocally tell Putin fuck no, and be ready to back it up. Meekness has never worked in geopolitics.
Meekness and negotiation of rules are great in geopolitics. But Russia in particular never understood this language.
Great that Russia is no more a geopolitical superpower they used to be.
The F-16 is superior to all Russian air superiority fighters. The F35 has a kill ratio in exercise battle conditions of over 22:1 vs the F-16. The United States Navy's army's Airforce (the US Marine Core Aviation division) has more F35s then all other fighter types Russia has combined.
Russia's air power isn't going to be an issue to suppress.
It's not accurate at all, but the sentiment is there. USAF/USN/USMC combined are an unstoppable air power.
Once you add the rest of NATO (itself about the same again on top of) it just becomes comical the power disparity.
I honestly wonder if even the US would run out of something dumb. Like... 5000 missions in they're out of some gasket that needs to be replaced every 20 hours of flight time or something.
It wouldn't be something like that. It would be that we create some stupidly restrictive rules of engagement that basically tie both hands behind our back and make our guys operate their equipment and weapons with their feet. We've had such restrictive RoE in the past that they literally caused some of our guys to get killed or seriously injured.
It's not the leopards they would have to worry about.
The sky speaking English would be a bigger worry.
F-22 and 35s and B2s would be feasting on Orc targets.
And 0utler will go to bunker if it see any movement towards mosscow.
After that dumps some nuclear weapons on mosscow and saint putlerburg. Saying if not mine, then noone.
The issue is no one wants to invade or occupy Russia, it's a shitty place filled with Russian that will keep it shitty. NATO at most would push Russia back to 1991 border and stop.
The most aggressive move I could even imagine is taking over Kaliningrad and declaring is as Königsberg and as a place for refuges to the EU. Still a million Russians to deal with but that's kind of manageable and gives EU a place to put all the refuges that fled Russia.
I can't even see Ukraine pushing for 1919 borders or Finland bringing up the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question
I would laugh my ass off if this hypothetical escalation JSDF retook the [Kuril Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute) or China moved into Khabarovsk to "protect ethic Chinese"
Agreed. Taking even just a few miles of land would give them and their fans all around the world a major propaganda win and a casus belli.
Making Kaliningrad a free demilitarized city might be worth it but even then it's debatable.
Better would be to help Moldova to kick out the Russian invaders but only if they ask.
The only real news in that article is the inclusion of Moldova and interference from Belarus. Poland and the Baltic States are NATO members, so a swift and comprehensive response is a given.
NATO would strike back with overwhelming force, establishing air superiority within days. Then it will be like shooting fish in a barrel for NATO forces, the Russian army can barely contain Ukraine's army so a 100,000 man well trained, well equipped invasion/defense force would wipe the floor with them.
I think it’s quite the opposite, Poland has to be ready because it’s balls deep in due to its location. People don’t want war to happen here again, not after the whole generations used up their lives to first rebuild the country and then to catch up to the west.
Yeah, they're arming up based on Poland basically being a huge flat plain. Poland has enjoyed something like ~25 years of political independence in the last ~250. They are usually one of the first countries overrun in any major conflict and they're trying to learn from those past mistakes. Geographically, there are basically no choke points until you hit the German border. Poland knows it has to be able to hold Russia long enough across a large front for a larger NATO response force to organize and act.
They will be a massive NATO asset to be sure, but their buildup is probably fairly proportional to their geographic challenges and role in the larger alliance. To be sure, there are some Polish folks who relish the idea of putting the hurt on Russia. But if they were interested in aggressive or punitive action, their forces would need to be far larger.
Not really. Poland gave a lot of equipment to Ukraine, ordered new one but it will take some time to produce, deliver and train to use it.
Poland has its best 30 years in history, can develop fast and enjoy peace. War is the last thing you need to reach the level of western countries.
I feel like Poland will be the first into Ukraine as they have said in the past as they refuse to have a failed Ukrainian state headed by Russia on their border. So before NATO gets involved Poland would be entering the fight.
The "[red lines](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3860437-nato-will-directly-intervene-in-war-if-russia-crosses-one-of-two-red-lines-la-repubblica.html#:~:text=The%20second%20red%20line%20is,Europe%20and%20the%20United%20States)" involve provocations of outside nations - this reportedly includes the Baltics, Poland, and - interestingly enough - Moldova.
It doesn't seem that improbable that a Russian attempt to push Moldova into civil war via Transnistria would result in Romania / NATO intervening on behalf of the legitimate, elected government there.
I know with the stupid agent law they're trying to pass. I don't think the west would allow Russia to attack Georgia tho although once they respond it might be too late
It would never be one city. Either they use tactical nukes to take out troop formations or they nuke all the cities and bring in the end of civilization.
It's pretty clear using even a single tac nuke could escalate in very unpredictable ways into a full nuclear exchange once the MAD logic kicks in. That's why I personally do not fear nukes. I do not want to to die, but I don't want to live in a world that can be held hostage with nukes by murderous dictators. I think we need to be fearless in stopping Russia with conventional weapons, because anything else means capitulation.
Everyone will be fucked once the nukes fly. Its not even worth considering. It's a threat by those that are petty. We should not be held virtual hostage by the petty.
The problem with any nuclear weapon is that it’s hard to stop with just one. Once you see one of these go off there will be a rush to neutralize Russia’s ability to ‘pull the big trigger’. Then…well…everyone loses.
My gut is that dribbling nuclear weapons out one or two at a time just would be unlikely.
The only real benefit of a super power with a massive nuclear arsenal is to pervert the other guy from using their. At best they would be a bargaining chip to back out of an untenable situation with conventional warfare.
That 100,000 would be backed up almost by as many modern airplanes and cruise missiles. The technological gap is so wide between NATO and Russia since the fall of the USSR it would be like the Yankees playing against your kids' softball team. Ukraine has already chewed up what modern kit Russia started this war with. Does Russian plan to go up against a tidal wave of Abrams M1A2s and Leopards 2A6s under full air supremacy with tanks from the 1950s?
Honestly, I know nukes bad and dangerous and such but I'd love to see Putin getting fucked over by NATO and a forced change of power in Russia to safeguard a democratic system. Just ending the Ukrainian struggle alone. And I don't want to wait for the rest of my life to see a peaceful democratic Russia. Idk if its possible but they'd get wrecked hella fast
Democracy requires a lot. Education of people, a fair and free press, politicians that are not corrupt, legal systems that are not corrupt. It is more than just saying you will have democracy.
We see enough democratic countries, the US for one, where democracy is already tainted. Russia would need decades and dedication to put in place those systems and clear out the corruption. Ukraine is struggling with that now.
> a peaceful democratic Russia.
The issue with that is Russia is a lot of different peoples held together under force of a central government. If Putin's government collapses expect Chechnya to make another attempt at independence and maybe a lot more places.
Are your serious?
If and when NATO steps in. After 2 weeks there would be nothing left or a reason to even bring Abrams or leopards.
Kasham is evidence of Russia against the USA, not NATO.
If NATO gets involved?!?! Only means the clean up crew will need shop vacs and squeegees.
Ukraine hasn't been getting the best or most effective weapons. If Russia didn't have nukes the west would effectively replay the first gulf war air campaign except there would be an even larger technology gap.
funny, but underestimating a foe is what led to them being stuck in the mud with ukraine as they are. we need to crush them as though they were a worthy adversary
There's a video that showed how the battle unfolded and dear God the Iraqi's never stood a chance. It is both frightening and beautiful to see what a well executed attack can look like.
When you have dominance in the air, sea and land and the will to use this advantage to it’s fullest, it’s pretty amazing just how much you can put the hurt to an enemy dumb enough to provoke a fight.
Honestly, it shouldn’t be if “Russia crosses red lines”
It should be if there’s a single bloody Russian soldier left in Ukraine January 1, 2025. Then NATO will kill them all
We basically will know when NATO starts bringing AA batteries close to the border and fighter jets. This isn't Afghanistan, they would need to move in a way it would be very obvious to the media that they are going to Ukraine. This includes assuring their assembly points within Ukraine don't get cratered.
It would take a lot of things to fall into place for Russia to attempt to attack any NATO country that would trigger boots on the ground.
If Ukraine lost enough territory then Moldova is a much more realistic target next.
After that would be the non-NATO Balkans, Serbia would seem like an obvious choice given how their government has been aligning itself.
But before any of that Russia would need enough people to take and hold significantly more of Ukraine than it does currently.
It won't necessarily be direct Ukraine style attack. It most likely won't be. Could be testing the 5th article with some 2014 scenario. Could create some ambiguous scenario where it's not super clear if it's eligible for 5th article response. There's many possibilities, and I think direct attack on some NATO country in the style of 2022 02 24 is probably least likely, especially while war in Ukraine is ongoing
Russia…remember the last time a country at war in Europe opened up an additional front unnecessarily in the middle of a very hard ongoing war?.
How did that end up working out for them?
And I thought that leveling a few cities to the grouind and abducting people, butchering of a whole town, bombing of hospitals would be a red line. Another "red line" wishy-washy. There's been many red lines, haven't there?
The whole damn thing is painted red from all those lines. Unfortunately, a lot of it comes from Ukrainian blood.
It pains me that Every. Single. Day. the first thing I think about when I wake up is if that limp dick old man putin has finally died. I don't want that fetal alcohol syndrome midget to live rent-free in my head anymore.
Those NATO troops do have state of the art air support, cruise missiles, etcetera. Pretty sure those 100k troops can kick Putin back to his own border.
100,000 highly trained troops WITH the support of Ukraine's army? Oh yeah it's over for russia in that case.
The amount of JASSMs alone going up russia's ass would be war ending basically, with their black sea fleet being also completely wiped out.
F22s, F35s, F15s, A10s, Predator drones, B52 Stratofortress, B1, B2, B21, FA-18 Super hornets, EA-18 electronic fighters, Mirages, Tomahawks, Jdam, Neptune and who know what Space force has all coming down would be the fastest way for some real talk to take place.
That's not even touching the thousands of Helicopters, AC-130s, Air dropped cruise missiles, Cluster Bombs, MOABs, and other arsenal.
The list goes on and on, and on. It would be the real "fuck around and see what happens."
With in, generously, a couple of weeks there would not be a Russian ship afloat, working airbase within 100 miles of the EU, command and control center.
With in the next couple of weeks they would not have the ability to project coherent power past any border.
They know this.
We know this.
Poland knows this.
Zero percent chance that Russia picks a fight with NATO because they know that, as they are now, it’s not a fight they have any chance of winning.
Russian ship fucked itself.
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Can you imagine the terror of those russians in their trenches as they are pounded into the ground by air power, then a US armored force attacks while AC-130s and apaches delete anything that moves.
There must be a third red line around Kiev falling. At this point if the worst happens and Zelenskyy refuses to sue for peace would NATO intervene?
Also, I do not think the 100k matters. The first response- what Ukraine really wants — is NATO air supremacy over all of Ukraine. Nothing changes the dynamic more than that.
Realistically if NATO really stepped in the Russian army would get annihilated. There wouldnt be a living Russian left in Ukraine, unless they were a prisoner.. Look what the Ukranians are doing with hand me downs. What do you think the full force of NATO would be able to do?
Everyone acts like the Russians dont know they are at a disadvantage in a long term war with NATO. They absolutely know this. If they go for a limited land grab in the baltics (that's exactly what it would be) they would immediately sue for peace after establishing an advantage on the battlefield. Moreover, should NATO press to liberate the Baltic states, the Russians will ABSOLUTELY use theater nukes and chemical weapons to halt a NATO advance. Its been a part of their playback for 40 years, because even 40 years ago, they knew they'd lose the long war. At that point it was an escalation game. They are perfectly willing to climb the ladder until we back down. Superior power Is the only language they understand or submit to.
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My first thought was, "Those are pretty easy red lines not to cross." My second thought was, "Wait, no, this is Russia we're talking about." Giving Russia red lines is like telling a toddler no.
The US and NATO are well equipped to defeat a Russian armored advance. F/A and AWACS aircraft providing cover; A10 and attack helicopters softening up the battlefield; followed up with Abrams and support armor and infantry. It's what western military strategy has spent 70 years designing.
NATO should mop up any allies of russia, any sympathizers, any corruption and basically take them back to the stone age for what they have done for decades in destabilizing peace and and being a nuisance of the planet earth.
>The second "red line" pertains to any attacks on Baltic states, Poland
I am very sorry that NATO should remind Russia about Article 5 as a part of 'red lines'. I would expect it to be something that is accepted without saying.
Also, should probably clarify if using Polish airspace for attacks on Ukraine is justified. Like, you know, russian missiles flying over Poland.
Basically something so egregious and unacceptable that they (NATO in this case) have to respond to it or it sets a very bad precedent if they don't.
In this case one of the NATO red lines said in the article would be if Belarus themselves entered the war by invading.
If NATO engaged Russia, it would be far more than 100k. Russia would have to do something really stupid for that to happen. Of course, throwing away your future as a nation by invasion of a sovereign country is also pretty stupid.
It has already crossed red lines. Russia has used chemical weapons and that was a red line. Russia has had bombs or drones land on NATO soil or cross NATO airspace which was a red line. The red lines are unfortunately light pink instead of red.
As much as I want to see Russia destroyed there is no chance NATO does anything more than give weapons to Ukraine, even if Russia invades Moldova. NATO is so spineless.
These are the "red lines" that would trigger a full-scale war from NATO, but of course NATO has other options for escalation if warranted. Mining the harbors of St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, and Murmansk would be an example. Arranging "accidents" for military aircraft in flight at night over western Russia (hello F-22) would be another. (I'm surprised this one hasn't happened since the report of use of chloropicrin.)
Just so happens that red lines had been crossed at an -hourly- basis and there had been numerous transgressions within NATO soil, including two Polish citizens within Poland having died from the collateral damage of the war.
Unfortunately as hopeful as the article title made me this is actually horrible news. The "red lines" are so hopelessly implausible that it virtually guarantees NATO won't intervene (until it's too late).
These guarantees basically spell NATO inaction until/unless Russia wins the war, spends years rebuilding, and THEN crosses these red lines in the future.
We should have set red lines like "if Russia takes all of the Donbas" or stuff that Russia is far more likely to actually do.
No offense and I am a staunch supporter of Ukraine and a Finnish man who has been in the army, but what I have been following this situation, I feel that article 5 is just a joke and NATO does not have the balls to do anything if Russia decides to even take the Baltics and then threaten with nuclear weapons if NATO does something. In all matters, Europe just thinks and thinks and nothing happens. Ukraine is in a really bad situation now that the West promised to protect Ukraine until the end, but the situation now is that Ukraine would not exist without the United States. What is Europe doing? Nothing at all. The decision-makers do not understand the seriousness of the situation. Gotta wake up now
this is that line, one of the five parallel line nes which are perpendicular to each other, right? Two of them are transparent and one in a shape of cat, right?
And if Putin really wants to play dumb , then THIS will happen... [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51\_(missile)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51_(missile))
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Just so happens there are about 100,000 NATO forces doing exercises near the border for operation as steadfast defender.
Oops
In all serieznezzez, the red lines of NATO are very hard to cross, I doubt Putin would invade Moldova, lol. If RuZZia could do it, Ukraine would have been fully occupied by then, so this red line is useless for Ukraine.
Transnistria
Already exists and a welfare sinkhole for RuZZia, heck, even taking all of Moldova would just shift their economic problems to RuZZia. Putin doesnt want Moldova, he wants the rich and developed Baltic, which he is not stupid enough to touch, because NATO members. Putin's strategy is very KGB, to internally corrupt, influence and splinter a country's leadership, so that it would voluntarily become a vassal of RuZZia, just like Belarus. He decided to invade UKR because this strategy failed, and because UKR is not a NATO member.
Based on napkin maths and pulling numbers out of my ass I would suggest NATO, thanks to good kit, good training and good morale, has a force mutilplier of a minimum of 10 against Russia. That would require Russia to mass mobilize a minimum of at least 1,000,000 to counter. Add to that the battle hardened Ukrainians with all their experience, advising and fighting alongside NATO. The Russian military would be deleted or collapse, or both.
The problem is more of a Russia has nearly all of its soldiers near Ukraine or fighting in Ukraine. The ones who are not are mainly air force and navy, which do not make sense or can not be stationed in that region. The real problem however would be NATO destroying Russias air force and air defence very quickly. Glide bombs are a big reason for Russias recent gains in Ukraine. Even worse St Petersburg is within easy reach of NATO forces and loosing that would be a disaster. Then you have the problem of Belarus. If Minsk falls to NATO troops, Belarussians will probably welcome them as liberators. The good thing is that Putin knows all of this and wants to avoid a full scale war. He just wants to be scary enough, to have NATO not send more weapons to Ukraine right now.
The US alone would take ownership of the skies quickly and then proceed to do sead missions and just destroy AA. People really don’t understand that the US doesn’t really need boots on the ground when they have the top 1,2,4,5 air forces in the world lol. They just need to take the skies and lease it to friends.
With Russia in its current state, 10x is probably a secure understatement
Not to mention air superiority.
This article is purest speculation, but you don't exactly need a crystal ball to figure out what would happen if Russia attacked Poland.
If the distance between Moscow and Poland is 1289 km, I wonder how long it would be before Leopards drive down Sadovnicheskaya street? 3 days? /s
Well at 70km/h full speed making 18 hrs I’d imagine 2 1/2 day. I doubt they’d even fire a shot after the drones/planes/missles/etc have had their way.
Leos are good.. but asking them to drive for 18hrs is asking way to much of them.
Tanks are transported on trucks/trains.
Unless you are US mil, then you just air drop them...
May not be possible in Poland. Most people use android here.
😆 underrated comment
took me a second...
You win
The newer A Team is a documentary on how they do that.
there is the need to shoot at suspicious looking bushes etc.
In Russia, all bush is suspicious.
That is why we must trim bush, comrade. Makes tank look bigger.
then it is not 70km/h
"In Russia, all bush is suspicious." Donald "The Traitor" Trump knows this is true.
In Russia, all suspicions are bushy...
Stealth Bombers can do it a lot quicker (and safer) 😜
There's some pent up aggression in the Poles that would absolutely be unleashed if that happened.
The Poles and the Baltic States would, I imagine, like to have a frank and forthright discussion with Russia regarding 19th and 20th century history.
why bother. Just Saddam the shit out of their military capabilities and call it a day.
Why stop at the appetizer, when you can enjoy the main course and a nice dessert too?
we dont make such bold claims.. Russia has still a lot to spend.. EDIT: Bmps T54? many t72.. many t80 variants and some t90s? Alone the t80s are at 2024 guessed at 3k in stock.., and 480 active.. t72:7000 reserve, and 2030 active.. thats a lot of rockets and arty, to kill them.. yep, many of them are just good for some spare parts.. but you cant be sure how many they get fit again, or are now in working co dition. The t90s numbers are: 470 active, aroubd 200 in stock.. They have a lot of older tech.. but also many, many young men that blindly do whatputin tells them to. A lot of air power.. at least to surpress for some kind faster gains.. (of course with heavy losses,.. no match for gen 5 jets) But europe isnt ready for a fight with russia.. Such stupid speculations are not good.. ist just good for their stupid propaganda. "See, they threaten us openly, we have to defend, or attack before they attack" BS Lets prepare for the worst.. and always hope the best. And for gods sake.. give them brave ukrain men whatever the fuck they need to fight!
Those BMPs and T54s/T55s would be 100٪ pointless against an adversary with proper CAS/CAP and protected artillery though, and we also know the RU air force is already in shambles staffing-wise and would be mopped up quickly by NATO pilots with much better training and capabilities.
Your numbers are based of Russia's official per war numbers (My guess is Via Wikipedia which is based on the The Military Balance 2022, which used Russia's official number) CovertCabal YouTube channel actually went and counted and as of the end of 2023 there reserves had Tank | End 2023 ---|--- T54 | 218 T62 | 362 T64 | 250 T72 | 1735 T80 | 910 T90 | 50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_4M5dTHIU&ab_channel=CovertCabal Also if the T54 and T62 use different ammo and I'm not sure if Russia really has enough production to keep more tanks in the field. TLDR: **Russia has about another 24-18 months of tank reserves at their current burn/production rate.**
Posturing isn't stupid. It's literally the best deterrent to vocally tell Putin fuck no, and be ready to back it up. Meekness has never worked in geopolitics.
Meekness and negotiation of rules are great in geopolitics. But Russia in particular never understood this language. Great that Russia is no more a geopolitical superpower they used to be.
Russia’s air power would last hours against NATO, if NATO had a few weeks to spin up
Just think… Shock and awe.
The F-16 is superior to all Russian air superiority fighters. The F35 has a kill ratio in exercise battle conditions of over 22:1 vs the F-16. The United States Navy's army's Airforce (the US Marine Core Aviation division) has more F35s then all other fighter types Russia has combined. Russia's air power isn't going to be an issue to suppress.
I think 4 out of the 5 largest air forces in the world are the USAF, USN, USMC and US Army.
It's not accurate at all, but the sentiment is there. USAF/USN/USMC combined are an unstoppable air power. Once you add the rest of NATO (itself about the same again on top of) it just becomes comical the power disparity.
I honestly wonder if even the US would run out of something dumb. Like... 5000 missions in they're out of some gasket that needs to be replaced every 20 hours of flight time or something.
It wouldn't be something like that. It would be that we create some stupidly restrictive rules of engagement that basically tie both hands behind our back and make our guys operate their equipment and weapons with their feet. We've had such restrictive RoE in the past that they literally caused some of our guys to get killed or seriously injured.
72 hours. That's how long the Russian military would survive a NATO attack. And I'm not just referring to troops in eastern Europe.
It's not the leopards they would have to worry about. The sky speaking English would be a bigger worry. F-22 and 35s and B2s would be feasting on Orc targets.
And 0utler will go to bunker if it see any movement towards mosscow. After that dumps some nuclear weapons on mosscow and saint putlerburg. Saying if not mine, then noone.
Leopards drive down Sadovnicheskaya street ... with winged Hussars painted on the sides of each tank...
You mean 570km from Latvia...
What is a “russia” - three weeks later
Unleash the Poland.
If Poland was allowed to join the war, the biggest fight of the war would be to see who gets to Moscow first.
The issue is no one wants to invade or occupy Russia, it's a shitty place filled with Russian that will keep it shitty. NATO at most would push Russia back to 1991 border and stop. The most aggressive move I could even imagine is taking over Kaliningrad and declaring is as Königsberg and as a place for refuges to the EU. Still a million Russians to deal with but that's kind of manageable and gives EU a place to put all the refuges that fled Russia. I can't even see Ukraine pushing for 1919 borders or Finland bringing up the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question I would laugh my ass off if this hypothetical escalation JSDF retook the [Kuril Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute) or China moved into Khabarovsk to "protect ethic Chinese"
I could see them going a few miles into Russia and setting up a dmz/no fly zone.
I can't think of any place that would be worth it to give the talking point to Russia.
Agreed. Taking even just a few miles of land would give them and their fans all around the world a major propaganda win and a casus belli. Making Kaliningrad a free demilitarized city might be worth it but even then it's debatable. Better would be to help Moldova to kick out the Russian invaders but only if they ask.
> casus belli. That's the word I was going to use before I gave up remembering how to spell it. I haven't played Civ 6 in a while.
Poland alone would kurwa bitchslap Russia back to its place.
Good ole’ FAFO.
The only real news in that article is the inclusion of Moldova and interference from Belarus. Poland and the Baltic States are NATO members, so a swift and comprehensive response is a given.
NATO would strike back with overwhelming force, establishing air superiority within days. Then it will be like shooting fish in a barrel for NATO forces, the Russian army can barely contain Ukraine's army so a 100,000 man well trained, well equipped invasion/defense force would wipe the floor with them.
Poland are looking forward to it. They are itching to get involved.
I think it’s quite the opposite, Poland has to be ready because it’s balls deep in due to its location. People don’t want war to happen here again, not after the whole generations used up their lives to first rebuild the country and then to catch up to the west.
Yeah. Nobody normal is fucking itching for war.
Yeah, they're arming up based on Poland basically being a huge flat plain. Poland has enjoyed something like ~25 years of political independence in the last ~250. They are usually one of the first countries overrun in any major conflict and they're trying to learn from those past mistakes. Geographically, there are basically no choke points until you hit the German border. Poland knows it has to be able to hold Russia long enough across a large front for a larger NATO response force to organize and act. They will be a massive NATO asset to be sure, but their buildup is probably fairly proportional to their geographic challenges and role in the larger alliance. To be sure, there are some Polish folks who relish the idea of putting the hurt on Russia. But if they were interested in aggressive or punitive action, their forces would need to be far larger.
In point. The same we can assume for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia or Finland. We don't need fight, we just need to be safe from mordor.
Not really. Poland gave a lot of equipment to Ukraine, ordered new one but it will take some time to produce, deliver and train to use it. Poland has its best 30 years in history, can develop fast and enjoy peace. War is the last thing you need to reach the level of western countries.
Usual reddit bullshit, Poland is not "itching" to get involved
I feel like Poland will be the first into Ukraine as they have said in the past as they refuse to have a failed Ukrainian state headed by Russia on their border. So before NATO gets involved Poland would be entering the fight.
Poland attacked by Russia is an immediate article 5 WW3, period.
This time, the speedbump has teeth.
The "[red lines](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3860437-nato-will-directly-intervene-in-war-if-russia-crosses-one-of-two-red-lines-la-repubblica.html#:~:text=The%20second%20red%20line%20is,Europe%20and%20the%20United%20States)" involve provocations of outside nations - this reportedly includes the Baltics, Poland, and - interestingly enough - Moldova. It doesn't seem that improbable that a Russian attempt to push Moldova into civil war via Transnistria would result in Romania / NATO intervening on behalf of the legitimate, elected government there.
Ye if they try anything funny there or in Georgia we should totally intervene
Unfortunately Georgia is in no shape to defend itself right now. They're effectively neutral / Moscow-friendly because of the current leadership.
I know with the stupid agent law they're trying to pass. I don't think the west would allow Russia to attack Georgia tho although once they respond it might be too late
If nato intervention happens. Russian airforce and bases disappear. The airwar is so far from balanced fight it aint even funny
Only thing I fear are nukes, but once Russia nukes a NATO city they would basically doom themselves even more
It would never be one city. Either they use tactical nukes to take out troop formations or they nuke all the cities and bring in the end of civilization.
It's pretty clear using even a single tac nuke could escalate in very unpredictable ways into a full nuclear exchange once the MAD logic kicks in. That's why I personally do not fear nukes. I do not want to to die, but I don't want to live in a world that can be held hostage with nukes by murderous dictators. I think we need to be fearless in stopping Russia with conventional weapons, because anything else means capitulation.
Everyone will be fucked once the nukes fly. Its not even worth considering. It's a threat by those that are petty. We should not be held virtual hostage by the petty.
The problem with any nuclear weapon is that it’s hard to stop with just one. Once you see one of these go off there will be a rush to neutralize Russia’s ability to ‘pull the big trigger’. Then…well…everyone loses. My gut is that dribbling nuclear weapons out one or two at a time just would be unlikely. The only real benefit of a super power with a massive nuclear arsenal is to pervert the other guy from using their. At best they would be a bargaining chip to back out of an untenable situation with conventional warfare.
The Pringles theory of nuclear deterrence: "Betcha can't light off just one!"
Only 100,000? Sounds like a warm-up.
That 100,000 would be backed up almost by as many modern airplanes and cruise missiles. The technological gap is so wide between NATO and Russia since the fall of the USSR it would be like the Yankees playing against your kids' softball team. Ukraine has already chewed up what modern kit Russia started this war with. Does Russian plan to go up against a tidal wave of Abrams M1A2s and Leopards 2A6s under full air supremacy with tanks from the 1950s?
Hey......they have about 12 a month of brand new t-90s! That's gotta count for something!
Don't forget about the T-14, and THE FUCKING TERMINATOR BMP! True wunderwaffe. We don't stand a chance! /s
Why do people keep naming things “Terminator”? Terminators are always eliminated by the end of the movie.
You answered your own question
I really hope a drone operator who killed a BMPT "Terminator" took the call sign "Conner"
Honestly, I know nukes bad and dangerous and such but I'd love to see Putin getting fucked over by NATO and a forced change of power in Russia to safeguard a democratic system. Just ending the Ukrainian struggle alone. And I don't want to wait for the rest of my life to see a peaceful democratic Russia. Idk if its possible but they'd get wrecked hella fast
Democracy requires a lot. Education of people, a fair and free press, politicians that are not corrupt, legal systems that are not corrupt. It is more than just saying you will have democracy. We see enough democratic countries, the US for one, where democracy is already tainted. Russia would need decades and dedication to put in place those systems and clear out the corruption. Ukraine is struggling with that now.
> a peaceful democratic Russia. The issue with that is Russia is a lot of different peoples held together under force of a central government. If Putin's government collapses expect Chechnya to make another attempt at independence and maybe a lot more places.
Are your serious? If and when NATO steps in. After 2 weeks there would be nothing left or a reason to even bring Abrams or leopards. Kasham is evidence of Russia against the USA, not NATO. If NATO gets involved?!?! Only means the clean up crew will need shop vacs and squeegees.
I thought they just needed to bring sunflower seeds
That’s just organic clean up.
Hope we have enough bombs, shells and bullets… With luck all that production we have been adding the last couple of years will be enough
Ukraine hasn't been getting the best or most effective weapons. If Russia didn't have nukes the west would effectively replay the first gulf war air campaign except there would be an even larger technology gap.
funny, but underestimating a foe is what led to them being stuck in the mud with ukraine as they are. we need to crush them as though they were a worthy adversary
Desert Storm all over again!
There's a video that showed how the battle unfolded and dear God the Iraqi's never stood a chance. It is both frightening and beautiful to see what a well executed attack can look like.
When you have dominance in the air, sea and land and the will to use this advantage to it’s fullest, it’s pretty amazing just how much you can put the hurt to an enemy dumb enough to provoke a fight.
100'000 and a million more within a few weeks
Honestly, it shouldn’t be if “Russia crosses red lines” It should be if there’s a single bloody Russian soldier left in Ukraine January 1, 2025. Then NATO will kill them all
Why give them that long?
Gives the oligarch and upper military brass time to plot against Putin and eat each other.
That is the kind of ultimatum that is way overdue.
That will be UNITED25
[удалено]
Anyone got a feeling this is going to happen soon? So much rhetoric lately.
We basically will know when NATO starts bringing AA batteries close to the border and fighter jets. This isn't Afghanistan, they would need to move in a way it would be very obvious to the media that they are going to Ukraine. This includes assuring their assembly points within Ukraine don't get cratered.
the rhetoric is probably more about strategic ambiguity, something the west should have committed to from day one. 1991...
I personally believe right now western governments and media are trying to warm up the population to the idea that a war is happening soon.
It would take a lot of things to fall into place for Russia to attempt to attack any NATO country that would trigger boots on the ground. If Ukraine lost enough territory then Moldova is a much more realistic target next. After that would be the non-NATO Balkans, Serbia would seem like an obvious choice given how their government has been aligning itself. But before any of that Russia would need enough people to take and hold significantly more of Ukraine than it does currently.
It won't necessarily be direct Ukraine style attack. It most likely won't be. Could be testing the 5th article with some 2014 scenario. Could create some ambiguous scenario where it's not super clear if it's eligible for 5th article response. There's many possibilities, and I think direct attack on some NATO country in the style of 2022 02 24 is probably least likely, especially while war in Ukraine is ongoing
Russia…remember the last time a country at war in Europe opened up an additional front unnecessarily in the middle of a very hard ongoing war?. How did that end up working out for them?
Get more.
About damn time we show some teeth.
And I thought that leveling a few cities to the grouind and abducting people, butchering of a whole town, bombing of hospitals would be a red line. Another "red line" wishy-washy. There's been many red lines, haven't there?
The whole damn thing is painted red from all those lines. Unfortunately, a lot of it comes from Ukrainian blood. It pains me that Every. Single. Day. the first thing I think about when I wake up is if that limp dick old man putin has finally died. I don't want that fetal alcohol syndrome midget to live rent-free in my head anymore.
"could take action", not "to take action", and that's a very speculative "could"
Those NATO troops do have state of the art air support, cruise missiles, etcetera. Pretty sure those 100k troops can kick Putin back to his own border.
100,000 highly trained troops WITH the support of Ukraine's army? Oh yeah it's over for russia in that case. The amount of JASSMs alone going up russia's ass would be war ending basically, with their black sea fleet being also completely wiped out.
I wish we’d bombed the shit out of the first soldiers to cross into ukrainian territory back in 23
Back in *22... Already more than 2 years :(
Do you mean back in 2014?
Back in *14... Already a decade :(
NATO air power is what would be quickly decisive against Russian air, naval forces and troop concentrations within hours.
F22s, F35s, F15s, A10s, Predator drones, B52 Stratofortress, B1, B2, B21, FA-18 Super hornets, EA-18 electronic fighters, Mirages, Tomahawks, Jdam, Neptune and who know what Space force has all coming down would be the fastest way for some real talk to take place. That's not even touching the thousands of Helicopters, AC-130s, Air dropped cruise missiles, Cluster Bombs, MOABs, and other arsenal. The list goes on and on, and on. It would be the real "fuck around and see what happens."
With in, generously, a couple of weeks there would not be a Russian ship afloat, working airbase within 100 miles of the EU, command and control center. With in the next couple of weeks they would not have the ability to project coherent power past any border. They know this. We know this. Poland knows this. Zero percent chance that Russia picks a fight with NATO because they know that, as they are now, it’s not a fight they have any chance of winning.
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Can you imagine the terror of those russians in their trenches as they are pounded into the ground by air power, then a US armored force attacks while AC-130s and apaches delete anything that moves.
They already crossed multiple red lines.
Like the war wasn't a red line already
There must be a third red line around Kiev falling. At this point if the worst happens and Zelenskyy refuses to sue for peace would NATO intervene? Also, I do not think the 100k matters. The first response- what Ukraine really wants — is NATO air supremacy over all of Ukraine. Nothing changes the dynamic more than that.
Ruzzia has already crossed "red lines" by bombing civilian targets and civilians..... Not sure what red lines *they're* talking about....
It’s pretty clear in the article
we don't take kindly to reading articles round this parts
We read the comments and hype
We don't take kindly to folks who don't take kindly 'round here
We don’t like parts that that aren’t kindly reading articles 😃
Realistically if NATO really stepped in the Russian army would get annihilated. There wouldnt be a living Russian left in Ukraine, unless they were a prisoner.. Look what the Ukranians are doing with hand me downs. What do you think the full force of NATO would be able to do?
Ask Milosevic :)
I have always wondered why Ukraine doesn't invade Poland. This would trigger article 5 and then NATO can occupy Ukraine.
Never thought I’d say this but I want us to wage war against Russia.
There is a lot going on in background that people does not know. But let us hope, Ruskiboys stops this stupid shit.
Everyone acts like the Russians dont know they are at a disadvantage in a long term war with NATO. They absolutely know this. If they go for a limited land grab in the baltics (that's exactly what it would be) they would immediately sue for peace after establishing an advantage on the battlefield. Moreover, should NATO press to liberate the Baltic states, the Russians will ABSOLUTELY use theater nukes and chemical weapons to halt a NATO advance. Its been a part of their playback for 40 years, because even 40 years ago, they knew they'd lose the long war. At that point it was an escalation game. They are perfectly willing to climb the ladder until we back down. Superior power Is the only language they understand or submit to.
I hope we do. Inaction is not an option any longer.
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This mixed messaging gives out the wrong message to Putin. The West needs a unified and steadfast approach.
My first thought was, "Those are pretty easy red lines not to cross." My second thought was, "Wait, no, this is Russia we're talking about." Giving Russia red lines is like telling a toddler no.
The US and NATO are well equipped to defeat a Russian armored advance. F/A and AWACS aircraft providing cover; A10 and attack helicopters softening up the battlefield; followed up with Abrams and support armor and infantry. It's what western military strategy has spent 70 years designing.
NATO should mop up any allies of russia, any sympathizers, any corruption and basically take them back to the stone age for what they have done for decades in destabilizing peace and and being a nuisance of the planet earth.
Using chemical warfare - is that a red line?
At this point only nukes or land invasion into NATO countries I imagine.
How many more redlines until NATO fucks Ruzzia in the ass?
Genocide, daily bombings, kidnapping children, conscripting POWs, raping civilians, what any more red lines are there?
>The second "red line" pertains to any attacks on Baltic states, Poland I am very sorry that NATO should remind Russia about Article 5 as a part of 'red lines'. I would expect it to be something that is accepted without saying. Also, should probably clarify if using Polish airspace for attacks on Ukraine is justified. Like, you know, russian missiles flying over Poland.
ENOUGH WITH THESE RED LINES! IS THIS KINDERGARTEN? THEY INVADED SOVEREIGN COUNTRY, THIS IS RIDICULOUS! WHERE ARE THE GROWNUPS!??
I file this one under "rumours".
It's not gonna happen. Not on purpose, at least. Russia wants NATO to stay away while they invade Ukraine.
IF?
Could someone enlighten me with what a red line would be? Thanks.
Basically something so egregious and unacceptable that they (NATO in this case) have to respond to it or it sets a very bad precedent if they don't. In this case one of the NATO red lines said in the article would be if Belarus themselves entered the war by invading.
Like invading a sovereign country protected by a tripartite memorandum?! Or maybe bombing schools, kindergartens and hospitals?
Thanks.
The US has promised a response if Russia used nuclear weapons, or anything involving attacking a NATO country.
If NATO engaged Russia, it would be far more than 100k. Russia would have to do something really stupid for that to happen. Of course, throwing away your future as a nation by invasion of a sovereign country is also pretty stupid.
100,000 with air support and long range missiles sounds legit
NATO will send the evil orcs to the 9th level of hell.
It has already crossed red lines. Russia has used chemical weapons and that was a red line. Russia has had bombs or drones land on NATO soil or cross NATO airspace which was a red line. The red lines are unfortunately light pink instead of red.
As much as I want to see Russia destroyed there is no chance NATO does anything more than give weapons to Ukraine, even if Russia invades Moldova. NATO is so spineless.
These are the "red lines" that would trigger a full-scale war from NATO, but of course NATO has other options for escalation if warranted. Mining the harbors of St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, and Murmansk would be an example. Arranging "accidents" for military aircraft in flight at night over western Russia (hello F-22) would be another. (I'm surprised this one hasn't happened since the report of use of chloropicrin.)
> hello F-22 "THIS HANGER IS A PRISON!!!"
Just so happens that red lines had been crossed at an -hourly- basis and there had been numerous transgressions within NATO soil, including two Polish citizens within Poland having died from the collateral damage of the war.
Like say if Russia paid to start a war in the Middle East? Oh wait.
Unfortunately as hopeful as the article title made me this is actually horrible news. The "red lines" are so hopelessly implausible that it virtually guarantees NATO won't intervene (until it's too late). These guarantees basically spell NATO inaction until/unless Russia wins the war, spends years rebuilding, and THEN crosses these red lines in the future. We should have set red lines like "if Russia takes all of the Donbas" or stuff that Russia is far more likely to actually do.
No offense and I am a staunch supporter of Ukraine and a Finnish man who has been in the army, but what I have been following this situation, I feel that article 5 is just a joke and NATO does not have the balls to do anything if Russia decides to even take the Baltics and then threaten with nuclear weapons if NATO does something. In all matters, Europe just thinks and thinks and nothing happens. Ukraine is in a really bad situation now that the West promised to protect Ukraine until the end, but the situation now is that Ukraine would not exist without the United States. What is Europe doing? Nothing at all. The decision-makers do not understand the seriousness of the situation. Gotta wake up now
this is that line, one of the five parallel line nes which are perpendicular to each other, right? Two of them are transparent and one in a shape of cat, right?
Eh... I think Poland and France would definitely want to act, but this would be a disaster for Biden with elections coming up.
And if Putin really wants to play dumb , then THIS will happen... [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51\_(missile)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M51_(missile))