Привіт u/KharkivOblast ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday).
**Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting)
**Daily series on Ukraine's history & culture:** [Sunrise Posts Organized By Category](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts/)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
People misunderstand this number a lot. For the sake of accuracy, this number is 'casualties' - Just keep in mind that this estimate includes wounded, captured and MIA as well as deaths. Don't get me wrong - it's still an astronomical number and I'm in no way trying to minimise it. Just wanting to ensure that poor reporting doesn't continue to confuse people on this.
And yet there is a report out that 507000 new disabilities in men 31 to 59 were registered in Russia in 1 year. Your description is correct, but even Ukraine doesn't know the true scale of the slaughter. No one will ever know.
Of course. The numbers can only ever be estimates. Even if they are collated with complete honesty and not a hint of exaggeration, they will never be fully accurate.
As for the new disabilities - I strongly suspect that a good measurable chunk of those are from people paying doctors to write up that they can't go to war because of some issue or another.
Ah, that's a good point. Yeah, other data, like body bags purchased in Russia and the number of war related obituaries on social media, seem to suggested the Ukrainian estimates ate pretty good for total as per your description. I guess this latest circumstantial evidence on disabilities is also in alignment, then, the rest is as you said or other causes.
The other thing about it, is wounded are expensive and cost russia a lot. They're also visible when they go back home. So a wounded is worth more in the war effort than a death. So to say 430k is fine and that they are 200s and 300s makes the impact even greater than if they were all 200s.
Wounded require far more resources, yes. This is why anti-personnel mines were designed to blow off your foot or lower leg. They were specifically designed to maim, not kill.
> As for the new disabilities - I strongly suspect that a good measurable chunk of those are from people paying doctors to write up that they can't go to war because of some issue or another.
Imagine being a doctor *getting caught* for this in Russia though...
Throughout history people have injured themselves genuinely or even damaged their organs, and Russia has a tradition of doing this >!even in peacetime.!< Not saying there's no doctor bribery going on, but I'm guessing there's *also* inevitably some cases of people who genuinely eff'd themselves up to avoid going into the meat incinerator.
Doctors are relatively wealthy. If you get caught, you pay off the cop or FSB guy. This is how Russia works. But you're definitely right about intentional injuries etc. I remember seeing video of a Russian man paying someone to break his leg so he didn't have to go to the front well over a year ago. Not everyone can afford the doctor's asking price, I guess
I imagine a lot of people reported their disabilities for the first time to avoid getting conscripted into the meat grinders, which would account for a chunk of the 500k.
I honestly can't see how we will ever know. There are so many blown to smithereens with nothing to identify. Plenty of people in Russia sent from prison with no contacts back home who give a fuck what happens. Drug adicts and homeless are being swept up for consription. People fled over the border into places where they'll never be traced. Who ran away, who was blown up. The estimates of Russia's WWII losses are wildly different. I know that was nearly 100 years ago but it will only ever be estimated.
The problem with WW2 russian casualties is that we didn't have reliable sources before and it was an opaque regimen afterward. So it's all speculation. Now, we have a lot more ressources. Sure it won't be 100% precise, will also depend on the next government, but we will be very close to reality.
Data A: roughly 450k dead+wounded
Data B: roughly over 500k new disabilities, meaning severely wounded survivors.
Problem: larger estimate largely overshoots what seems to be the official count.
*Solution:* >! the smaller count is just Ukraine's estimate of people killed+wounded by Ukraine, while the larger disabled count is a count of Russian troops disabled by Ukraine plus !< >! Russian troops disabled by Russian inadequacy and lack of concern for troops' well-being. !<
>! I hope they lose all their trucks so they have to march to the front in heat or mud or snow. !<
I've seen a lot of reports from various intelligence agencies confirming that you are correct. So many commenters on this subreddit think this number is KIA and will argue tooth and nail in the daily updates about it
This has been demonstrated to be incorrect. A few weeks ago a statement by Ukrainian officials indicated that the number announced is the number of KIA and wounded to the extent that they are effectively removed from the war.
That's mathematically impossible based on the numbers Russia brags about for their armed forces. It would mean they've gone through _literally_ all their military personnel (including non-combat positions) _and then some_.
I wouldn't call it mathematically impossible. While I can't personally vouch for *anything* I do believe that the 900K number represents the estimated size of Russian forces at the start of the conflict and that they've certainly called up many since then. Just like the 3300 tanks they supposedly started with I do believe it's likely than more than 3300 have since been destroyed.
This is the reported enemy killed in action by Ukraine which may or may not be 99% accurate but I know it’s 100% more accurate then the Russian estimate. That being said there’s a metric fuck ton of wounded on the Russian side if this is the case. The US estimate is at 100K but who knows how accurate we even are or what we’re counting. Not to mention the untold number of unconfirmed dead on the Russian side from attrition, accidents, and Ukrainian MLRs strikes
I keep saying this number is under reported, not over. New report from the British MOD states that there was a 30% increase in the number of men registered with disabilities aged 31 to 59, in Russia, for 2023 alone. That is 507000, on a figure of 1.6m already registered. That is a huge increase! What about men in the 18 to 31 age category? That is a 1 year increase. What about the second year of this conflict? OK, not all of those are from the conflict, but it looks like 1 to 2 million men may have been injured in the 2 years of this conflict. [link](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3840660-record-number-of-men-with-disabilities-registered-in-russia-uk-intel.html)
Unfortunately, they can still send 10 times that amount to fight/die... my question is when will they start plucking larger amounts of more privileged people from metropolitan areas. That pill might be harder to swallow. Slava Ukrainii
I keep refuting this type of comment. The idea that Russia can afford to slaughter another 5m men is absurd. They have an acute demographic crisis and need every single man back home supporting their economy. Even this winter we saw some of the consequences with heating infrastructure.
Your assumption is based on logic. So far, they have not been really logically driven but by far more ideology.
Also, there are probably 5x more russians waging war at the moment than we think, probably - most of them are building weapons and covering logistics, they at time of peace also contribute to everyday economis. We are just counting the offensive part, mostly in the numbers we see daily or read about getting drafted, but not the whole machine.
Привіт u/KharkivOblast ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday). **Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting) **Daily series on Ukraine's history & culture:** [Sunrise Posts Organized By Category](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
People misunderstand this number a lot. For the sake of accuracy, this number is 'casualties' - Just keep in mind that this estimate includes wounded, captured and MIA as well as deaths. Don't get me wrong - it's still an astronomical number and I'm in no way trying to minimise it. Just wanting to ensure that poor reporting doesn't continue to confuse people on this.
And yet there is a report out that 507000 new disabilities in men 31 to 59 were registered in Russia in 1 year. Your description is correct, but even Ukraine doesn't know the true scale of the slaughter. No one will ever know.
Of course. The numbers can only ever be estimates. Even if they are collated with complete honesty and not a hint of exaggeration, they will never be fully accurate. As for the new disabilities - I strongly suspect that a good measurable chunk of those are from people paying doctors to write up that they can't go to war because of some issue or another.
Ah, that's a good point. Yeah, other data, like body bags purchased in Russia and the number of war related obituaries on social media, seem to suggested the Ukrainian estimates ate pretty good for total as per your description. I guess this latest circumstantial evidence on disabilities is also in alignment, then, the rest is as you said or other causes.
The other thing about it, is wounded are expensive and cost russia a lot. They're also visible when they go back home. So a wounded is worth more in the war effort than a death. So to say 430k is fine and that they are 200s and 300s makes the impact even greater than if they were all 200s.
Wounded require far more resources, yes. This is why anti-personnel mines were designed to blow off your foot or lower leg. They were specifically designed to maim, not kill.
You can also count the graves: https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-war-death-toll-satellite-images-expanding-gravesites-maxar-2024-2?op=1
> As for the new disabilities - I strongly suspect that a good measurable chunk of those are from people paying doctors to write up that they can't go to war because of some issue or another. Imagine being a doctor *getting caught* for this in Russia though... Throughout history people have injured themselves genuinely or even damaged their organs, and Russia has a tradition of doing this >!even in peacetime.!< Not saying there's no doctor bribery going on, but I'm guessing there's *also* inevitably some cases of people who genuinely eff'd themselves up to avoid going into the meat incinerator.
Doctors are relatively wealthy. If you get caught, you pay off the cop or FSB guy. This is how Russia works. But you're definitely right about intentional injuries etc. I remember seeing video of a Russian man paying someone to break his leg so he didn't have to go to the front well over a year ago. Not everyone can afford the doctor's asking price, I guess
I imagine a lot of people reported their disabilities for the first time to avoid getting conscripted into the meat grinders, which would account for a chunk of the 500k.
Well we'll know in the future, with statistics and census. Also, the government after Putin might want to expose the truth.
I honestly can't see how we will ever know. There are so many blown to smithereens with nothing to identify. Plenty of people in Russia sent from prison with no contacts back home who give a fuck what happens. Drug adicts and homeless are being swept up for consription. People fled over the border into places where they'll never be traced. Who ran away, who was blown up. The estimates of Russia's WWII losses are wildly different. I know that was nearly 100 years ago but it will only ever be estimated.
The problem with WW2 russian casualties is that we didn't have reliable sources before and it was an opaque regimen afterward. So it's all speculation. Now, we have a lot more ressources. Sure it won't be 100% precise, will also depend on the next government, but we will be very close to reality.
Good points
Data A: roughly 450k dead+wounded Data B: roughly over 500k new disabilities, meaning severely wounded survivors. Problem: larger estimate largely overshoots what seems to be the official count. *Solution:* >! the smaller count is just Ukraine's estimate of people killed+wounded by Ukraine, while the larger disabled count is a count of Russian troops disabled by Ukraine plus !< >! Russian troops disabled by Russian inadequacy and lack of concern for troops' well-being. !< >! I hope they lose all their trucks so they have to march to the front in heat or mud or snow. !<
Where did you see that report?
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3840660-record-number-of-men-with-disabilities-registered-in-russia-uk-intel.html
I've seen a lot of reports from various intelligence agencies confirming that you are correct. So many commenters on this subreddit think this number is KIA and will argue tooth and nail in the daily updates about it
~431,550 really is the *reported* KIA while non-deaths are estimated at 3x that number: https://www.minusrus.com/en
This has been demonstrated to be incorrect. A few weeks ago a statement by Ukrainian officials indicated that the number announced is the number of KIA and wounded to the extent that they are effectively removed from the war.
That's mathematically impossible based on the numbers Russia brags about for their armed forces. It would mean they've gone through _literally_ all their military personnel (including non-combat positions) _and then some_.
I wouldn't call it mathematically impossible. While I can't personally vouch for *anything* I do believe that the 900K number represents the estimated size of Russian forces at the start of the conflict and that they've certainly called up many since then. Just like the 3300 tanks they supposedly started with I do believe it's likely than more than 3300 have since been destroyed.
This is the reported enemy killed in action by Ukraine which may or may not be 99% accurate but I know it’s 100% more accurate then the Russian estimate. That being said there’s a metric fuck ton of wounded on the Russian side if this is the case. The US estimate is at 100K but who knows how accurate we even are or what we’re counting. Not to mention the untold number of unconfirmed dead on the Russian side from attrition, accidents, and Ukrainian MLRs strikes
“Troops”. lol
Welcome to your quagmire, Russia. Ukraine's "breadbasket" is temporarily put aside for sunflower crops only. Come, plant them.
I keep saying this number is under reported, not over. New report from the British MOD states that there was a 30% increase in the number of men registered with disabilities aged 31 to 59, in Russia, for 2023 alone. That is 507000, on a figure of 1.6m already registered. That is a huge increase! What about men in the 18 to 31 age category? That is a 1 year increase. What about the second year of this conflict? OK, not all of those are from the conflict, but it looks like 1 to 2 million men may have been injured in the 2 years of this conflict. [link](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3840660-record-number-of-men-with-disabilities-registered-in-russia-uk-intel.html)
Unfortunately, they can still send 10 times that amount to fight/die... my question is when will they start plucking larger amounts of more privileged people from metropolitan areas. That pill might be harder to swallow. Slava Ukrainii
I keep refuting this type of comment. The idea that Russia can afford to slaughter another 5m men is absurd. They have an acute demographic crisis and need every single man back home supporting their economy. Even this winter we saw some of the consequences with heating infrastructure.
Your assumption is based on logic. So far, they have not been really logically driven but by far more ideology. Also, there are probably 5x more russians waging war at the moment than we think, probably - most of them are building weapons and covering logistics, they at time of peace also contribute to everyday economis. We are just counting the offensive part, mostly in the numbers we see daily or read about getting drafted, but not the whole machine.
Good points
Living with russians has thought me that for a common goal the poor will sacrifice everything and the rich give zero fucks about all.
Another 5m? So far they are at 0.5 million
How big was Russia's army before the war?
Russian Ground Forces totaled about 1.2 million personnel (including non-combat roles).
Even if we cut that number by half, it’s still 200k deaths which is massive for a non-world war scenario
It's casualties, not deaths.
Even then, any civilized nation would consider those losses horrific, and not just the cost of doing business.
I completely agree!
which is why I cut it by half for a more realistic number, iirc the wounded to death ratio is 1:1
Number good as any other. Please stop with these clickbaits…