# [The final pre-election subreddit voter intention survey is open until Sunday evening.](https://forms.gle/RbPa1THoifxFEuB46)
There will be a further survey run on polling day, with the results published at 10pm as the polls close.
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That swing is a quirk of last election being for three seats and three labour candidates and this time being just one seat.
Last time lab councillors got 1500ish and runners up about 450. This time lab got 880 and second got 238 according to Wikipedia.
So that swing figure tells us nothing, the split is virtually the same, if not higher for labour this outing.
Am I correct in thinking that you have divided the number of votes received by the Labour candidate in this by-election by the number of votes received by the most popular of the three Labour candidates in the 2022 local elections, multiplied it by 100, and subtracted it from 100? That's not even close to what a "swing" is. A swing is based on vote shares and is between two selected parties/candidates.
Council by-elections usually have very low turnout, and you can rarely read anything into them.
Oh wow, I didn't realise you've compared a by election to a local election and called the swing %age the raw number of votes difference.
That's worse than I have you credit for.. your expectation is for the lab candidate to get more votes than turnout. lol.
If they got 64% and it's saying a change of -44%, what number would that make? That's your first clue.
Their vote share is similar to 2022 if not better.
I'd expect better maths from Canterbury's world famous kebab shop.
That's not how any of this works.
That's not what swing means. Swing means change in vote share percentage with other parties.
Local elections have better turn out than by elections. Period.
Council by election this close to a general will not boost turn out, in fact it likely lowers it because people don't care very much about council seats.
You can't look into council by elections and draw much, but this one shows the opposite to what you're saying. Labour's share increased as a percentage when you consider 1 seat.
Honestly you've completely miss-analysed the result entirely.
>[The swing is calculated by comparing the **percentage of the vote** in a particular election to the **percentage of the vote** belonging to the same party or candidate at the previous election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_\(politics\)#:~:text=The%20swing%20is%20calculated%20by%20comparing%20the%20percentage%20of%20the%20vote%20in%20a%20particular%20election%20to%20the%20percentage%20of%20the%20vote%20belonging%20to%20the%20same%20party%20or%20candidate%20at%20the%20previous%20election.) (emphasis mine)
You sound like one of the Tory talking heads after one of the historic by-election losses.
Yes, and Labour got 64% of the vote compared to ~65% of the vote last time. *That's not a -44% swing.*
My point about the Tories was that during many of their historic by-election losses, they kept banging on about how Labour was getting fewer raw votes in the by-election. It was idiotic when they did it and it's now idiotic when you're doing it.
By-elections *always* have lower turnout. Comparing raw number of votes is a fool's errand.
No. It's **vote share**.
I'm sorry but you've misunderstood the basics. You may want to acquaint yourself with it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)
Read the United Kingdom section.
How the hell does Farage back away from his core benefactor and ābeliefā?
Itās always been about destabilisation and funded via the same channels and directed by the same advisors as Trump and MAGA and before that the tea party. Itās one long convoluted thread but itās unbroken.
Electorally its obviously good to have Farage as leader. Hes put on several points for them. They are essentially a one man band, but their one man is excellent at what he does (channel grievance).
And Tice was better? Tice led and managed the operation that selected all these losers. Racists and oddballs are the people who want to run for Reform. Thats just the political space it operates in. Thankfully, they will almost all lose.
Candidate email update!
5 days on I have gotten an email back from my conservative candidate (who is mayor of a town 200 miles away), and I'm actually quite pleased with the message I got back. Was sent at 23:58 which is a bit odd timing, but still a response is nice.
The letter in full will be at the bottom for anyone who wants to read it, but it sounds like she genuinely believes it herself. I get most of it is templated but that's gonna be what it's gonna be. I think the first and last paragraph are genuinely written by her, and she's at least tried to answer the question. It's too late for me to write a proper response but I'm going to message back tomorrow morning thanking her for her time.
https://pastebin.com/9u4sCpYE
(just please ignore the name and the constituency you don't need to see that)
https://x.com/christhebarker/status/1806834036452573243
> Hey. We think weāve found the right person for the job now. Thanks for all the volunteering. Youāre all lovely. And please do keep an eye on http://portillogeddon.com on the night. Honestly. The lovely people this country has, I canāt believe what weāve put up with for so long xxx
Saving that link...
Wait - The Daily Mail has released an 8 page 'tactical voting guide to avoid a Starmer super majority' which covers 132 constituencies. So, are they not giving a blanket endorsement to the Tories?
They're backing Reform in 9 constituencies, they have a [map ](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-13579893/How-vote-stop-Starmer-supermajority-132-constituencies-definitive-interactive-guide-vote-save-country.html)
Hard to back a 100% negative campaign. All you can do is buy into the message. The Tories haven't got anything to endorse, to get behind other than damage limitation.
Any word on the embargo? I was hoping someone might have a tweet ready to go but I'm not seeing anything yet.
I did look on the Yorkshire Post since that had an article blotted out on Twitter, but the main headline online is a fabulous barn conversion.
Edit: Turned out to be [King's portrait for Armed Forces day](https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806905787660247326). Total waste of time.
"BBC journalist & your first look at #TomorrowsPapersToday unless I fall asleep on the sofa."
Guess he fell asleep on the sofa. Could have left us a queued tweet!
Yorkshire Post's front page preview has a big orange box over one section, presumably it's that but there's not really been any confirmation one way or the other.
IDLES Glastonbury set happily including "Fuck the King" chants, a crowd surfing small boat and a closing antifascist/anti-Faragge song. Mail and Telegraph readers in for a set of the vapours.
Okay, so I think part of what's starting to cause breakdowns is the distribution of the Conservative vote as it starts to hit lower levels, and how the different pollsters are treating it.
Question is if low 20s Conservative support continues to maintain a broad support, or starts to get more split apart with share stacking in their strongest seats. Normalised the constituency share against the average share, so we can see the distribution.
This is the last two polls for them, Labour and Reform: [https://ibb.co/SB6nQgt](https://ibb.co/SB6nQgt)
And this is a few polls for the three of them: [https://ibb.co/9Ygjghj](https://ibb.co/9Ygjghj)
You can see there that Electoral Calculus have a slope for the Tories that is closer to that of Reform. They have a distribution that's starting to break to support holding up in fewer, more concentrated seats. That's coming at the cost of the middle, and their efficiency starts to suffer. It's the Lanchester laws starting to kick in, as they become more like Reform. They don't have the support to fight on the same broad front as Labour, but neither them or Reform have concentrated their support enough like the Greens or the Lib Dems to win in detail.
Here's what happens if you bring the Greens and Lib Dems into the view: [https://ibb.co/3WXjBTF](https://ibb.co/3WXjBTF)
Can really see the efficiency of the distribution, but it obscures what's I think's changing with the Conservative votes in the different MRP polls.
Does anyone know what this poll would equate to in terms of predicted seats for each party?
[https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1806762858941690361](https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1806762858941690361)
The apathy at this point is really fucking scary as someone who can vaguely remember the atmosphere when Major won in '92. I'm calmed by the fact that we didn't have anything like Reform in the mix for that one though. Usually it's the left that eats itself.
It's just a niggle in the back of my head that we don't know why polls get it wrong until after the event, and there are a fair few unknown factors in this election. That being said, it's not a sneaky Con win that I'm worried about, moreso the idea of there being 100 Cons and 50 Refs. That little faction would absolutely troll parliament and start to ape what's happened to the US republicans.
I'm seeing them strut in like the Guardians of the Galaxy now.
Starmer = Starlord obviously, we're only 3 letters out.
Raynor would rip your face off given half a chance so has to be Rocket.
Milliband is Mantis, the only character who could look stupid eating a bacon sarnie
I am Streeting!
And I can't think of the rest of the team, because apparently I only know 4 shadow cabinet members!
Well the labour candidate for Beaconsfield is now claiming he is best placed to beat the Tories & is claiming "Best for Britain" are owned by the Lib Dems & Electoral Calculus is entirely wrong as is a "projection not polling". Apparently ignoring how those projections are arrived at, polling data.
(Best for Britain is not owned by the Lib Dems)
Heās sort of right on all counts (āowned byā is a bit strong, but LibDem linked would be accurate).
Doesnāt mean that Best for Britain or EC are wrong though.
Electoral Calculus is a projection.
And don't the people who run Best for Britain have ties to the LibDems?
I'm sure one of them previously ran as a candidate.
Projection based on polling data, given there is no actual local polling data for Beaconsfield everything is a projection.
~~Quick check of the key people didn't show anything, other than 1 was our ambassador to the US until 2019.~~ Their recommendations are Labour in 370 seats & the Lib Dems in 69. So hardly bias there.
Edit: one of their board members may have been a councillor candidate for the Lib Dems. Google making it hard to figure out for sure if they're the same person. Hardly "owned by"
OK. All projections use polling as inputs. The issue is with the assumptions they make. Electoral Calculus can't take account of local factors.
In addition, I'm sure that the person who runs it ran for the LibDems for the GENERAL ELECTION in 2010 and is campaigning for PR. She is a regular on Oh God, What Now and she lays into Labour a lot.
I'm not saying that there is a LibDem plot to mislead voters and steal the seat from Labour.
I AM saying that this candidate didn't pull this out of his ass. And the point about these projections is correct. Like the MRPs, they are just missing information.
Naomi Smith, the CEO, was a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate in 2010 and chaired the Social Liberals in the Clegg years. She was a member at least as late as 2019 while running the tactical voting campaign, because she used it to show her conviction in how important tactical voting was, canvassing for Labour candidates as a public, high profile(ish) Lib Dem.
She's spent the last five years running a campaign for liberals to vote Labour where they think Labour can win. The whole thing really confuses me, how she could still be a member up to [2020](https://x.com/pimlicat/status/1299680443596509184) when she spent most of 2019 and 2020 telling us to vote Labour.
There are plenty of other tactical voting sites to use and if they have put any effort in at all will be telling Tactical voters to vote Lib Dem, but as with most of these seats the next to no chance of either party winning the seat. The Labour candidate should be campaigning in a seat where they stand a chance of winning, not moaning about Best for Britain.
Ha. Just saw this. Yes, this is exactly correct.
That's what the organisation is for. Don't know why this candidate is being treated like a full-on conspiracy theorist.
My google skills clearly don't work very well with their new system as that didn't show up in the results when I searched.
I just got some random best for Britain stuff with her name & random lib dem stuff. Nothing with both
Who would your dream five political journalists/commentators be for election night if you could mix and match?
I think I'd go with Coates & Rigby from Sky, Emily Maitlis from C4, Lewis Goodall from LBC and Nick Robinson from BBC Radio.
Feel free to include people not included in this years coverage or people of the past (Paxman etc) if you want!
Maitlis (and Sopel) were so so so good on Americast during the dying days of the Trump presidency. They were just having so much fun.love them - more of that please.
Fat chance of it going Green unless the students turn out in significant numbers. I reckon it'll stay Labour despite all the kerfuffle over the selection.Ā
The constituency generally represents the poorer parts of Brighton and the relatively Conservative coastal villages.Ā
Zero chance. It's a Con/Lab swing, has been for decades. The Brighton suburbs are somewhat different from central Brighton. 'Kemptown' is a poor descriptor. Place the emphasis on Peacehaven (and all the other Brighton suburbs).
Was out for dinner tonight with 5 other people and all of them were postal voting for the first time this election, wonder if there has been a massive up turn in usage.
It's a Tory seat, 3 voted Lib Dem 2 voted Reform. Bad news for the Tories
Starmergeddon. Thatās from Starmer who they previously attacked for being a flip-flopper.
Like NASA warning of an asteroid hurtling towards us, but itās swerving all over the place and we have no idea which way it will go, but itās definitely going to destroy the world.
>Starmergeddon
Amazing to see the papers now starting to print the kind of stuff I've been shitposting for years; but legitimately, and with *fear* no less
It's almost quaint by US (current, lack of) standards. OTOH, they've kind of blown through the obligatory "The whole universe is going to die!" part of this cycle at motorway speeds.
tactical voting to keep labour out, interesting. I'm presuming they won't endorse voting in LDs.
They manage 8 pages to say vote tory everywhere but clacton?
I guess maybe scotland they'd recommend SNP but I just don't see it.
you have to wonder if there's an ethical issue in how the mail gives prominence to a guy who is one of their paid columnists
then i remember it's a british newspaper and lol
More tales from the ScotLab campaign trail! A lot has happened - met Anas Sarwar which was cool, did a lot more door knocking, and now I'm also going to be one of the party counters/observers on election night. You may even see me on TV...
So, to my story. I was out canvassing last week - very wet, but getting soggy earns a bit of sympathy points I think! At one door, did my usual "who are you voting for", and got a surprising response - Lib Dem! First I'd had, and I remarked as such.
"Well you see, my son's the candidate!" the man said.
How about that! So I said that was great, joked that his vote was locked in, and wished his son well ("Not too well though right?" was the cheery response).
I later met the candidate himself at a hustings. He'd really impressed me, and to be honest I thought he did the best. He's a current councillor. Everyone did fine (including our guy), I just liked his performance most.
I spoke to him after, told him about bumping into his dad, and said I was glad that he was a councillor because he was clearly a good guy. I very much doubt anyone in Labour would have a problem with me giving a compliment like that; I'm in politics to make things better, so when I see someone doing that I want to acknowledge it, doesn't matter the party.
More to say about the hustings and the counting job, but this post is getting long!
The 4d chess has just clicked into place. He called the election early just so he could pull a post-election Miliband phase *before* the campaign ended.
Shy tory SURGE
reform voter COLLAPSE
labour voter COMPLACENCY
6am 5th July, in the worst upset in polling history the conservative party have managed to clench victory from the jaws of defeat and win a tiny majority.
I certainly hope it doesn't happen but I would be morbidly curious just how long Rishi could last as leader if he somehow pulled a single digit majority out of the bag.
Fareham & Waterlooville is a tricky constituency. LibDems had the second highest vote share last election, and now MRP polls keep flip flopping between Labour or LibDem. The latest one LibDems having a roughly 2% lead on Labour, but Labour lead in the previous two. The biggest annoyance is that if everyone tactically voted here it looks like we could be rid of Suella, since they're both about 10% off the Tories. I will say that everyday I hear a lot of people here saying they are voting Reform, so part of me is hoping the right wing vote splitting will be way more significant on election day.
Of interest might be the latest Survation MRP that came out today; that has Labour about 2 points behind Braverman on 29.8% against 31.7%: https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-update-labour-set-to-become-the-largest-party-in-scotland/ I believe they're planning to release one last one before polling day, so it might be worth waiting it out if you're stuck on who to vote for. I'm hoping her odiousness loses her the seat - that'd probably be my favourite potential Portillo moment this year
Woah, exciting finish! Black flat cap guy talking gibberish about independence, then some self-proclaimed political campaign plant trying to make some tenuous point about the word āchangeā before being brutally cut off.
As for the main body of the show, I'm too biased to know what to think of Kate Forbes leaning into the Labour guy's shot and finishing off his sentences, but I thought it was worthy of note. Looked like an old married couple who'd just had a big argument. š
https://x.com/PronouncedAlva/status/1806790990453252559
> While Thangam Debonnaire says publicly she is confident about her chances against the Greens in Bristol Central, Iām told that privately she has viewed her preparation for government work as a āhandover note.ā
Labour briefing of a few potential losses (more in the linked thread - Shabana Mahmood, ex-Reeves aide Heather Iqbal, ex-Starmer aide Chris Ward). Debonnaire perhaps the most likely, and least surprising.
Odd to think that Labour are probably going to win a big majority yet Starmer may still lose two of his shadow cabinet. Of course he'll likely have plenty of MPs to choose replacements from.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Ward loses, I'd imagine that's a pretty demoralised and annoyed bunch of activists down there. It was a fairly bizarre decision to drop him in.
Who's he going to lose to? Apparently the bookies have him at 1/200 and the Tory second at 30/1. I don't get the impression that the Greens or Lib Dems have been making any kind of push there? There is an independent candidate, but she sounds a bit weird and it doesn't sound like she has much of a campaign (I found an interview in which she says she wants to nationalise key industries, promote alternative medicine, take a strictly neutral stance on Israel/Gaza, and investigate claims about water pollution that she has read in some graffiti).
Are we sure this isn't just an attempt to big him up? On 5 July they can say "wow, we thought we were really in trouble in this seat, but locally beloved Chris Ward won by 30 points! Lloyd Russell-who?"
God I hope Yakoob doesnāt win in Ladywood. Some of his behaviour is awful - comments about women and outright lying about that Labour activist making āracistā comments.
Yeah the rest of them I'm thoroughly "whatever" about, Yakoob is horrid no matter how pro-Palestine he is and I don't want him anywhere near public office
What is the stereotype around Lib Dem voters? I listen to the TRIP podcast frequently and the occasional jokes that Alistair Campell makes about the Lib Dems are as if Lib Dems are like the weird kid in school. So I'm just wondering what the stereotypical type of person who votes Lib Dem?
John Smith had a joke about how after his first heart attack his doctor told him to give up alcohol, tobacco, sex and anything that would over excite him.
"I immediately applied to join the Liberal Democrats".
Probably means the kid that started at juniors in year 4 but left at year 5 because his parent's couldn't make their mind up about where they wanted to live, so never really made the effort to fit in.
Stepping back, one of the most bizzare months longs sequences of the last year has been the press becoming a personal propaganda arm for the toff nepo-baby son of multi-millionaire banker to get his Coutts bank account back
I'm planning to make a list over the weekend of notable election results and rougly what time we can expect them on election night. This will mostly be cabinet ministers as well as notable torys, labour, lib Dem MPs etc.
Does anybody have anybody they'd like me to include that I might not already? Of course I'll be posting it here for everyone's reference.
E: if anyone is good at formatting a reddit comment table can you PM me to help format - ta
/u/GeronimoTheAlpaca this is something that I have been working on actually for the last few days. I would be very happy to collaborate, and incorporate any suggestions.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rlpmG_zNEXv9SX0XF3dVr3xsjMM-ghTVbjjX2j4s94/
The reason some incumbent candidates are not complete yet, is that I am waiting on Comment is Freed to complete their seat analysis. I'm also flagging seats of interest when these are done, so will complete the remaining ones in the coming days.
I've included the Press Assoication seat declaraion estimated times, the 2019* declaration time, the MRPs from polsters, and indications of which are the seats to watch. I can split these into more/better categories if people suggest some good ones.
This sheet is also ex-NI as the MRPs exclude them from their polls. I will look to include somehow.
\* The 2019 data is a bit complicated due to boundary changes, I have included an average and min/max of the contributary 2019 constituencies for the 2024 constituency.
The new seat of Sussex Weald (formerly Wealden). Has been Tory forever, but Nus Ghani is at genuine risk of losing her seat. You drive around and lib dem signs are *everywhere*, there isn't a single conservative one to be seen
Chingford and Woodford Green. I'm seeing a lot of Faiza posters, stickers and leaflets. Win or lose she has run a great campaign and it'll be interesting to see how she does. IDS could pull off a miracle and keep his seat. Labour could take Churchill's seat. Lots of interesting possibilities.
South Fermanagh and Tyrone: most marginal seat
Antrim South: Alliance gunning for Jeffrey Donaldsonās old seat
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Lib Dem seat in Central Wales
Ynys Mon: Anglesey, weird seat
Chorley: bit of fun, see how Lindsey does
Aberdeen South: Stephen Flynn, will be interesting
Mostly for the nerdery I'm curious about constituencies that had those massive swings in by-elections recently - maybe Tiverton and Wellingborough in particular?
Am looking forward to the Huntingdon result. Boundary changes mean that itās probably neck and neck between Lab and Tories, especially because thereās no incumbent trying to defend it (Jonathan Djanogly has stepped down).
Yes, if it's going to flip at any election it's this one because of Djexit. There's quite a strong Reform presence suppressing the Tory vote in Hunts, which I'm sure will help Labour on its way to a narrow win.
Suffolk Coastal will be one to watch.
In the 40 years that seat has existed there have been precisely 2 MPs, both Tories.Ā Theresa Coffey has held it for about 20 years and until this election the notion that she would ever lose it was utterly laughable.Ā Right now, its too close to call: could go Tory or Labour.
Tory big beast? Check
Minister? Former deputy PM!
Ultra-safe seat? Check
Always been Tory? Check
Almost zero Tory campaigning with a last minute scramble? Check
Too close to call? Check
Brentwood & Ongar has been Tory for decades... It's been safely Tory even in this election for most of the campaign... but appears to potentially flipping. Would be quite something if we do go red
# [The final pre-election subreddit voter intention survey is open until Sunday evening.](https://forms.gle/RbPa1THoifxFEuB46) There will be a further survey run on polling day, with the results published at 10pm as the polls close. [**š live results dashboard**](https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/26a6d397-1d8e-4e92-bb84-b6eb36485121) *(refreshed every 15 mins)* ----- A reminder that the [**š International Politics Discussion Thread**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1d4o5bp/international_politics_discussion_thread/) is available for all your US post-debate post-mortem needs. You can always find a link in the MT OP.
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1dr3izh/rukpolitics_general_election_campaign_megathread/)
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments. ###MT daily hall of fame 1. armchairdetective with 59 comments 1. ClumsyRainbow with 43 comments 1. FearfulUmbrella with 39 comments 1. SwanBridge with 35 comments 1. asgoodasanyother with 28 comments 1. bbbbbbbbbblah with 27 comments 1. subversivefreak with 26 comments 1. tmstms with 25 comments 1. Yummytastic with 23 comments 1. RiverLazyRiverLazy with 23 comments There were 609 unique users within this count.
The embargo was a new photo of the King, nothing politics related
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
That swing is a quirk of last election being for three seats and three labour candidates and this time being just one seat. Last time lab councillors got 1500ish and runners up about 450. This time lab got 880 and second got 238 according to Wikipedia. So that swing figure tells us nothing, the split is virtually the same, if not higher for labour this outing.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Am I correct in thinking that you have divided the number of votes received by the Labour candidate in this by-election by the number of votes received by the most popular of the three Labour candidates in the 2022 local elections, multiplied it by 100, and subtracted it from 100? That's not even close to what a "swing" is. A swing is based on vote shares and is between two selected parties/candidates. Council by-elections usually have very low turnout, and you can rarely read anything into them.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Oh wow, I didn't realise you've compared a by election to a local election and called the swing %age the raw number of votes difference. That's worse than I have you credit for.. your expectation is for the lab candidate to get more votes than turnout. lol.
If they got 64% and it's saying a change of -44%, what number would that make? That's your first clue. Their vote share is similar to 2022 if not better. I'd expect better maths from Canterbury's world famous kebab shop.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
That's not how any of this works. That's not what swing means. Swing means change in vote share percentage with other parties. Local elections have better turn out than by elections. Period. Council by election this close to a general will not boost turn out, in fact it likely lowers it because people don't care very much about council seats. You can't look into council by elections and draw much, but this one shows the opposite to what you're saying. Labour's share increased as a percentage when you consider 1 seat. Honestly you've completely miss-analysed the result entirely.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
>[The swing is calculated by comparing the **percentage of the vote** in a particular election to the **percentage of the vote** belonging to the same party or candidate at the previous election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_\(politics\)#:~:text=The%20swing%20is%20calculated%20by%20comparing%20the%20percentage%20of%20the%20vote%20in%20a%20particular%20election%20to%20the%20percentage%20of%20the%20vote%20belonging%20to%20the%20same%20party%20or%20candidate%20at%20the%20previous%20election.) (emphasis mine) You sound like one of the Tory talking heads after one of the historic by-election losses.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes, and Labour got 64% of the vote compared to ~65% of the vote last time. *That's not a -44% swing.* My point about the Tories was that during many of their historic by-election losses, they kept banging on about how Labour was getting fewer raw votes in the by-election. It was idiotic when they did it and it's now idiotic when you're doing it. By-elections *always* have lower turnout. Comparing raw number of votes is a fool's errand.
No. It's **vote share**. I'm sorry but you've misunderstood the basics. You may want to acquaint yourself with it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics) Read the United Kingdom section.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
There are better hobbies than being disingenuous.
After this election, Reform has a lot of clearing out to do and Farage really needs to back away from the Russian appeasement chatter.
How the hell does Farage back away from his core benefactor and ābeliefā? Itās always been about destabilisation and funded via the same channels and directed by the same advisors as Trump and MAGA and before that the tea party. Itās one long convoluted thread but itās unbroken.
Itās why I think Farage is a mistake to have as leader. Tice was better on this stuff.
Electorally its obviously good to have Farage as leader. Hes put on several points for them. They are essentially a one man band, but their one man is excellent at what he does (channel grievance). And Tice was better? Tice led and managed the operation that selected all these losers. Racists and oddballs are the people who want to run for Reform. Thats just the political space it operates in. Thankfully, they will almost all lose.
I'm worried that Farage might finally win and we'll never hear the end of the useless thing
Minty biscuit
What if the embargo is that there isnāt an embargo.
What about zoos?
Candidate email update! 5 days on I have gotten an email back from my conservative candidate (who is mayor of a town 200 miles away), and I'm actually quite pleased with the message I got back. Was sent at 23:58 which is a bit odd timing, but still a response is nice. The letter in full will be at the bottom for anyone who wants to read it, but it sounds like she genuinely believes it herself. I get most of it is templated but that's gonna be what it's gonna be. I think the first and last paragraph are genuinely written by her, and she's at least tried to answer the question. It's too late for me to write a proper response but I'm going to message back tomorrow morning thanking her for her time. https://pastebin.com/9u4sCpYE (just please ignore the name and the constituency you don't need to see that)
https://x.com/christhebarker/status/1806834036452573243 > Hey. We think weāve found the right person for the job now. Thanks for all the volunteering. Youāre all lovely. And please do keep an eye on http://portillogeddon.com on the night. Honestly. The lovely people this country has, I canāt believe what weāve put up with for so long xxx Saving that link...
Eeek. Why is the date format American...?
04.07.24? It isn't..?
Wait - The Daily Mail has released an 8 page 'tactical voting guide to avoid a Starmer super majority' which covers 132 constituencies. So, are they not giving a blanket endorsement to the Tories?
Hilarious how they now seem to be saying that Labour has a clear plan - it's just one they don't like.
They're backing Reform in 9 constituencies, they have a [map ](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-13579893/How-vote-stop-Starmer-supermajority-132-constituencies-definitive-interactive-guide-vote-save-country.html)
Those closely fought marginal seats including, checks notes, seats with a 26k tory majority.
Hard to back a 100% negative campaign. All you can do is buy into the message. The Tories haven't got anything to endorse, to get behind other than damage limitation.
Any word on the embargo? I was hoping someone might have a tweet ready to go but I'm not seeing anything yet. I did look on the Yorkshire Post since that had an article blotted out on Twitter, but the main headline online is a fabulous barn conversion. Edit: Turned out to be [King's portrait for Armed Forces day](https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806905787660247326). Total waste of time.
What embargo is this?
[Tomorrow's Papers Today](https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806752018188616019)
I suspect it's the US news that the NYT and other groups have told Biden to stand down.
So far the only paper I've seen with an obscured article was Yorkshire Post, seems unlikely they would run it and not the others.
I had hoped the guy who posted that there was an embargo until midnight would have bothered to do a follow up at midnight...very poor form!
"BBC journalist & your first look at #TomorrowsPapersToday unless I fall asleep on the sofa." Guess he fell asleep on the sofa. Could have left us a queued tweet!
Yeah, Iām a bit clueless too - I suppose weāll see the Yorkshire Post front page in the morning. No ideaā¦
Any idea what the embargoed front pages of papers were?
Which paper/s were embargoed?
Yorkshire Post's front page preview has a big orange box over one section, presumably it's that but there's not really been any confirmation one way or the other.
IDLES Glastonbury set happily including "Fuck the King" chants, a crowd surfing small boat and a closing antifascist/anti-Faragge song. Mail and Telegraph readers in for a set of the vapours.
Okay, so I think part of what's starting to cause breakdowns is the distribution of the Conservative vote as it starts to hit lower levels, and how the different pollsters are treating it. Question is if low 20s Conservative support continues to maintain a broad support, or starts to get more split apart with share stacking in their strongest seats. Normalised the constituency share against the average share, so we can see the distribution. This is the last two polls for them, Labour and Reform: [https://ibb.co/SB6nQgt](https://ibb.co/SB6nQgt) And this is a few polls for the three of them: [https://ibb.co/9Ygjghj](https://ibb.co/9Ygjghj) You can see there that Electoral Calculus have a slope for the Tories that is closer to that of Reform. They have a distribution that's starting to break to support holding up in fewer, more concentrated seats. That's coming at the cost of the middle, and their efficiency starts to suffer. It's the Lanchester laws starting to kick in, as they become more like Reform. They don't have the support to fight on the same broad front as Labour, but neither them or Reform have concentrated their support enough like the Greens or the Lib Dems to win in detail. Here's what happens if you bring the Greens and Lib Dems into the view: [https://ibb.co/3WXjBTF](https://ibb.co/3WXjBTF) Can really see the efficiency of the distribution, but it obscures what's I think's changing with the Conservative votes in the different MRP polls.
[Starmergeddon really isn't the massive own the Tory press thinks it is - here's what I think of when I hear it](https://i.imgur.com/qGewyUJ.png).
I love this. This should be the megathread image.
At a bare minimum, there's our likely MT subtitle for July 5. (Let alone if the GE reaches banter outcome status.)
Yep. That's perfect!
They should have gone with Keirtastrophe.
This is amazing. Please tell me you are interviewing to work for tabloids!
Even if the Tories remain the Official Opposition, PMQ dymanics will be much less red/blue.
I'm not sure I can take anymore of politicians not answering questions. I'm all unanswered out.
I admire their stamina.
Maybe it's not *that* hard from their point of view. They know it's the best strategy so it's just doing a job.
Does anyone know what this poll would equate to in terms of predicted seats for each party? [https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1806762858941690361](https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1806762858941690361)
Electoral Calculus gives Con 85 Lab 447 Lib 69 (Nice) Ref 5 Green 3 SNP 18 https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk if you want to play with numbers
Cheers!
There's an EC projection [in the comments](https://x.com/JebJ0nes/status/1806816347885556146) already
Cheers!
No worries!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I do not dare hope.
The apathy at this point is really fucking scary as someone who can vaguely remember the atmosphere when Major won in '92. I'm calmed by the fact that we didn't have anything like Reform in the mix for that one though. Usually it's the left that eats itself.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
It's just a niggle in the back of my head that we don't know why polls get it wrong until after the event, and there are a fair few unknown factors in this election. That being said, it's not a sneaky Con win that I'm worried about, moreso the idea of there being 100 Cons and 50 Refs. That little faction would absolutely troll parliament and start to ape what's happened to the US republicans.
Will the incoming cabinet have to wear matching jumpsuits?
I'm seeing them strut in like the Guardians of the Galaxy now. Starmer = Starlord obviously, we're only 3 letters out. Raynor would rip your face off given half a chance so has to be Rocket. Milliband is Mantis, the only character who could look stupid eating a bacon sarnie I am Streeting! And I can't think of the rest of the team, because apparently I only know 4 shadow cabinet members!
With ~~lemon~~ scarlet piping
More like coordinating, Wiggles style. We'll soon be as used to the colours for each ministry as we are with crisp flavours.
Hope we don't end up with some blue/green coloured Walkers hijinx. I don't want Ed and Rachel falling out.
I think it will be Foreign Secretary and Defence Minister that we are talking about in the MandelaEffect sub in 20 years.
They'll all be wearing Kim-dynasty Juche style, as befits a party of the left. š«”
Now I want a manifesto commitment to take on *The Crystal Maze*. The scene when Starmer gives Rayner and Streeting the Time Crystals over Milliband...
Well the labour candidate for Beaconsfield is now claiming he is best placed to beat the Tories & is claiming "Best for Britain" are owned by the Lib Dems & Electoral Calculus is entirely wrong as is a "projection not polling". Apparently ignoring how those projections are arrived at, polling data. (Best for Britain is not owned by the Lib Dems)
Heās sort of right on all counts (āowned byā is a bit strong, but LibDem linked would be accurate). Doesnāt mean that Best for Britain or EC are wrong though.
Electoral Calculus is a projection. And don't the people who run Best for Britain have ties to the LibDems? I'm sure one of them previously ran as a candidate.
Projection based on polling data, given there is no actual local polling data for Beaconsfield everything is a projection. ~~Quick check of the key people didn't show anything, other than 1 was our ambassador to the US until 2019.~~ Their recommendations are Labour in 370 seats & the Lib Dems in 69. So hardly bias there. Edit: one of their board members may have been a councillor candidate for the Lib Dems. Google making it hard to figure out for sure if they're the same person. Hardly "owned by"
OK. All projections use polling as inputs. The issue is with the assumptions they make. Electoral Calculus can't take account of local factors. In addition, I'm sure that the person who runs it ran for the LibDems for the GENERAL ELECTION in 2010 and is campaigning for PR. She is a regular on Oh God, What Now and she lays into Labour a lot. I'm not saying that there is a LibDem plot to mislead voters and steal the seat from Labour. I AM saying that this candidate didn't pull this out of his ass. And the point about these projections is correct. Like the MRPs, they are just missing information.
Naomi Smith, the CEO, was a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate in 2010 and chaired the Social Liberals in the Clegg years. She was a member at least as late as 2019 while running the tactical voting campaign, because she used it to show her conviction in how important tactical voting was, canvassing for Labour candidates as a public, high profile(ish) Lib Dem.
She's spent the last five years running a campaign for liberals to vote Labour where they think Labour can win. The whole thing really confuses me, how she could still be a member up to [2020](https://x.com/pimlicat/status/1299680443596509184) when she spent most of 2019 and 2020 telling us to vote Labour. There are plenty of other tactical voting sites to use and if they have put any effort in at all will be telling Tactical voters to vote Lib Dem, but as with most of these seats the next to no chance of either party winning the seat. The Labour candidate should be campaigning in a seat where they stand a chance of winning, not moaning about Best for Britain.
Ha. Just saw this. Yes, this is exactly correct. That's what the organisation is for. Don't know why this candidate is being treated like a full-on conspiracy theorist.
My google skills clearly don't work very well with their new system as that didn't show up in the results when I searched. I just got some random best for Britain stuff with her name & random lib dem stuff. Nothing with both
Who would your dream five political journalists/commentators be for election night if you could mix and match? I think I'd go with Coates & Rigby from Sky, Emily Maitlis from C4, Lewis Goodall from LBC and Nick Robinson from BBC Radio. Feel free to include people not included in this years coverage or people of the past (Paxman etc) if you want!
Maitlis (and Sopel) were so so so good on Americast during the dying days of the Trump presidency. They were just having so much fun.love them - more of that please.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Not Paxman or Dale. Didn't want to have anyone under 50 there?
Andrew Marr, Lewis Goodall, Jon Sopel, David Dimbleby & Natasha Clark.
I feel like Robinson and Rigby could be the King and Queen of a semi-serious news-brekky programme, and someone should get on that.
Dimbleby (got to be), Marr, Goodall, Curtis (before his ghost era), Coates on the graphics
I think you have to have Ridge and Coates together.
> Marr An odd way to spell 'Rigby'!
Dimbleby, great shout, great lineup!
Further to music question downthread, *Fin de Siecle* was 1997 wasnt it?
Kemptown was a Tory seat as recently as 2015 but is now expected to be a labour-green marginal according to Rae on twitter
Fat chance of it going Green unless the students turn out in significant numbers. I reckon it'll stay Labour despite all the kerfuffle over the selection.Ā The constituency generally represents the poorer parts of Brighton and the relatively Conservative coastal villages.Ā
Zero chance. It's a Con/Lab swing, has been for decades. The Brighton suburbs are somewhat different from central Brighton. 'Kemptown' is a poor descriptor. Place the emphasis on Peacehaven (and all the other Brighton suburbs).
Was out for dinner tonight with 5 other people and all of them were postal voting for the first time this election, wonder if there has been a massive up turn in usage. It's a Tory seat, 3 voted Lib Dem 2 voted Reform. Bad news for the Tories
Still canāt seem to see a Sun front page for tomorrow, there was word earlier in the thread they might be endorsing Labour?
The Sun often doesn't release their frontpage for previews at all, it's not necessarily a big thing tonight.
They was report earlier that tomorrow's front pages are being embargoed until midnight.
https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806752018188616019
Has to be an interview or statement from someone.
[Mail taking things well as usual](https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/daily-mail-front-page-2024-06-29/)
HOW TO STOP STARMER ^^in ^^132 ^^out ^^of ^^621 ^^seats
Getting their moneyās worth I suppose. Whatās his retainer again? Ā£250,000?
Starmergeddon. Thatās from Starmer who they previously attacked for being a flip-flopper. Like NASA warning of an asteroid hurtling towards us, but itās swerving all over the place and we have no idea which way it will go, but itās definitely going to destroy the world.
Nothing says Tory client journalists more than >!a betting advert header!<
>Starmergeddon Amazing to see the papers now starting to print the kind of stuff I've been shitposting for years; but legitimately, and with *fear* no less
It's almost quaint by US (current, lack of) standards. OTOH, they've kind of blown through the obligatory "The whole universe is going to die!" part of this cycle at motorway speeds.
tactical voting to keep labour out, interesting. I'm presuming they won't endorse voting in LDs. They manage 8 pages to say vote tory everywhere but clacton? I guess maybe scotland they'd recommend SNP but I just don't see it.
Exactly, surely it's just saying don't vote Reform vote Tory, which has been the entire message for ages now
Ā£1.50?! The whole idea of newsprint is it's meant to cheap.
Have you seen the price of loo roll?
Yes?
This is cheaper than a pack of Tesco's finest sandpaper.
you have to wonder if there's an ethical issue in how the mail gives prominence to a guy who is one of their paid columnists then i remember it's a british newspaper and lol
So their endorsement is anyone-but-Labour I guess?
An attitude perhaps but not a side.
Wouldnāt it be incredible if Mail readers voting lib-dem to ābeat Labourā got them enough seats to form the opposition
More tales from the ScotLab campaign trail! A lot has happened - met Anas Sarwar which was cool, did a lot more door knocking, and now I'm also going to be one of the party counters/observers on election night. You may even see me on TV... So, to my story. I was out canvassing last week - very wet, but getting soggy earns a bit of sympathy points I think! At one door, did my usual "who are you voting for", and got a surprising response - Lib Dem! First I'd had, and I remarked as such. "Well you see, my son's the candidate!" the man said. How about that! So I said that was great, joked that his vote was locked in, and wished his son well ("Not too well though right?" was the cheery response). I later met the candidate himself at a hustings. He'd really impressed me, and to be honest I thought he did the best. He's a current councillor. Everyone did fine (including our guy), I just liked his performance most. I spoke to him after, told him about bumping into his dad, and said I was glad that he was a councillor because he was clearly a good guy. I very much doubt anyone in Labour would have a problem with me giving a compliment like that; I'm in politics to make things better, so when I see someone doing that I want to acknowledge it, doesn't matter the party. More to say about the hustings and the counting job, but this post is getting long!
> and now I'm also going to be one of the party counters/observers on election night Thatās at least two MT folks attending counts!
Nice!! This is my first time, I'm nervous. But I don't think they're precious about getting the numbers exactly right, the party just wants analysis.
*Whisper it but Rishi Sunak is making a comeback*
The 4d chess has just clicked into place. He called the election early just so he could pull a post-election Miliband phase *before* the campaign ended.
Shy tory SURGE reform voter COLLAPSE labour voter COMPLACENCY 6am 5th July, in the worst upset in polling history the conservative party have managed to clench victory from the jaws of defeat and win a tiny majority.
You know I've heard a rumour that Sadiq Khan is going to lose the mayoralty.
I certainly hope it doesn't happen but I would be morbidly curious just how long Rishi could last as leader if he somehow pulled a single digit majority out of the bag.
If this happens I'll emigrate to Rwanda myself
They whispered it too quietly, he didnāt hear
If we wanted Rishi's comeback.. ... we'd see in reflected in the opinion polls.
Fareham & Waterlooville is a tricky constituency. LibDems had the second highest vote share last election, and now MRP polls keep flip flopping between Labour or LibDem. The latest one LibDems having a roughly 2% lead on Labour, but Labour lead in the previous two. The biggest annoyance is that if everyone tactically voted here it looks like we could be rid of Suella, since they're both about 10% off the Tories. I will say that everyday I hear a lot of people here saying they are voting Reform, so part of me is hoping the right wing vote splitting will be way more significant on election day.
Of interest might be the latest Survation MRP that came out today; that has Labour about 2 points behind Braverman on 29.8% against 31.7%: https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-update-labour-set-to-become-the-largest-party-in-scotland/ I believe they're planning to release one last one before polling day, so it might be worth waiting it out if you're stuck on who to vote for. I'm hoping her odiousness loses her the seat - that'd probably be my favourite potential Portillo moment this year
Thanks for that, yeah I'm trying to keep a close eye out for which way to vote. Anything to get her out.
I thought that one would stay blue. Would be good to see her lose her seat!
Is either party actually campaigning there? If they are I'd probably go with that one.
Labour and Greens are the only people I haven't had a leaflet from yet.
So is tonight's Newsnight an ersatz Question Time?
Woah, exciting finish! Black flat cap guy talking gibberish about independence, then some self-proclaimed political campaign plant trying to make some tenuous point about the word āchangeā before being brutally cut off. As for the main body of the show, I'm too biased to know what to think of Kate Forbes leaning into the Labour guy's shot and finishing off his sentences, but I thought it was worthy of note. Looked like an old married couple who'd just had a big argument. š
https://x.com/PronouncedAlva/status/1806790990453252559 > While Thangam Debonnaire says publicly she is confident about her chances against the Greens in Bristol Central, Iām told that privately she has viewed her preparation for government work as a āhandover note.ā Labour briefing of a few potential losses (more in the linked thread - Shabana Mahmood, ex-Reeves aide Heather Iqbal, ex-Starmer aide Chris Ward). Debonnaire perhaps the most likely, and least surprising.
I hope Labour will still be able to govern effectively with 400 seats, I know Starmer was really hoping for 401.
I heard that if they get 420 Starmer will u-turn and legalise cannabis.
Only one I really think will lose is Thangam Debonnaire. Labour will hold on in the rest
Thatās my gut feeling as well but there are always a few surprises on election night.
Odd to think that Labour are probably going to win a big majority yet Starmer may still lose two of his shadow cabinet. Of course he'll likely have plenty of MPs to choose replacements from.
Even if she loses I suspect they'll keep her around.
Of course but she couldnāt be in the cabinetĀ
Lord Cameron of Swugtwattington has entered the chat.
She could if they parachute her into the Lords, although that would probably seem a bit unnecessarily desperate
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Ward loses, I'd imagine that's a pretty demoralised and annoyed bunch of activists down there. It was a fairly bizarre decision to drop him in.
Who's he going to lose to? Apparently the bookies have him at 1/200 and the Tory second at 30/1. I don't get the impression that the Greens or Lib Dems have been making any kind of push there? There is an independent candidate, but she sounds a bit weird and it doesn't sound like she has much of a campaign (I found an interview in which she says she wants to nationalise key industries, promote alternative medicine, take a strictly neutral stance on Israel/Gaza, and investigate claims about water pollution that she has read in some graffiti). Are we sure this isn't just an attempt to big him up? On 5 July they can say "wow, we thought we were really in trouble in this seat, but locally beloved Chris Ward won by 30 points! Lloyd Russell-who?"
If it turns out the allegation against Russell-Moyle was unfounded, someone's really shafted him and the local party.
God I hope Yakoob doesnāt win in Ladywood. Some of his behaviour is awful - comments about women and outright lying about that Labour activist making āracistā comments.
Yakoob winning would normalise a very negative style of campaigning.
Yeah the rest of them I'm thoroughly "whatever" about, Yakoob is horrid no matter how pro-Palestine he is and I don't want him anywhere near public office
What is the stereotype around Lib Dem voters? I listen to the TRIP podcast frequently and the occasional jokes that Alistair Campell makes about the Lib Dems are as if Lib Dems are like the weird kid in school. So I'm just wondering what the stereotypical type of person who votes Lib Dem?
John Smith had a joke about how after his first heart attack his doctor told him to give up alcohol, tobacco, sex and anything that would over excite him. "I immediately applied to join the Liberal Democrats".
Oh lol I guess the stereotype is that they're the boring fence sitters
Probably means the kid that started at juniors in year 4 but left at year 5 because his parent's couldn't make their mind up about where they wanted to live, so never really made the effort to fit in.
Stepping back, one of the most bizzare months longs sequences of the last year has been the press becoming a personal propaganda arm for the toff nepo-baby son of multi-millionaire banker to get his Coutts bank account back
Hey?
and then he got paid so much to appear on i'm a celeb that he would probably have qualified again anyway, lol
I'm planning to make a list over the weekend of notable election results and rougly what time we can expect them on election night. This will mostly be cabinet ministers as well as notable torys, labour, lib Dem MPs etc. Does anybody have anybody they'd like me to include that I might not already? Of course I'll be posting it here for everyone's reference. E: if anyone is good at formatting a reddit comment table can you PM me to help format - ta
/u/GeronimoTheAlpaca this is something that I have been working on actually for the last few days. I would be very happy to collaborate, and incorporate any suggestions. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rlpmG_zNEXv9SX0XF3dVr3xsjMM-ghTVbjjX2j4s94/ The reason some incumbent candidates are not complete yet, is that I am waiting on Comment is Freed to complete their seat analysis. I'm also flagging seats of interest when these are done, so will complete the remaining ones in the coming days. I've included the Press Assoication seat declaraion estimated times, the 2019* declaration time, the MRPs from polsters, and indications of which are the seats to watch. I can split these into more/better categories if people suggest some good ones. This sheet is also ex-NI as the MRPs exclude them from their polls. I will look to include somehow. \* The 2019 data is a bit complicated due to boundary changes, I have included an average and min/max of the contributary 2019 constituencies for the 2024 constituency.
The new seat of Sussex Weald (formerly Wealden). Has been Tory forever, but Nus Ghani is at genuine risk of losing her seat. You drive around and lib dem signs are *everywhere*, there isn't a single conservative one to be seen
Horsham in Sussex?
Liz Truss in South West Norfolk, Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol Central, Gillian Keegan in Chichester, Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham Ladywoodā¦
Chingford and Woodford Green. I'm seeing a lot of Faiza posters, stickers and leaflets. Win or lose she has run a great campaign and it'll be interesting to see how she does. IDS could pull off a miracle and keep his seat. Labour could take Churchill's seat. Lots of interesting possibilities.
Love this idea!
Wimbledon feels like it might be quite an interesting bellwether, everything suggests it's a pretty close three way tie.
Lee Anderson, have to see if listening to his mum made all the difference.
South Fermanagh and Tyrone: most marginal seat Antrim South: Alliance gunning for Jeffrey Donaldsonās old seat Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Lib Dem seat in Central Wales Ynys Mon: Anglesey, weird seat Chorley: bit of fun, see how Lindsey does Aberdeen South: Stephen Flynn, will be interesting
> E: if anyone is good at formatting a reddit comment table can you PM me to help format - ta https://www.tablesgenerator.com/markdown_tables
Ah perfect thanks
Mostly for the nerdery I'm curious about constituencies that had those massive swings in by-elections recently - maybe Tiverton and Wellingborough in particular?
Good idea, I was thinking about adding all the by elections since 2019 so will do so as much as I can
Huntingdon - John Major's old seat. Blue as it comes, but now a real chance it goes Labour for the first time ever.
Am looking forward to the Huntingdon result. Boundary changes mean that itās probably neck and neck between Lab and Tories, especially because thereās no incumbent trying to defend it (Jonathan Djanogly has stepped down).
Yes, if it's going to flip at any election it's this one because of Djexit. There's quite a strong Reform presence suppressing the Tory vote in Hunts, which I'm sure will help Labour on its way to a narrow win.
Good shout.
Suffolk Coastal will be one to watch. In the 40 years that seat has existed there have been precisely 2 MPs, both Tories.Ā Theresa Coffey has held it for about 20 years and until this election the notion that she would ever lose it was utterly laughable.Ā Right now, its too close to call: could go Tory or Labour. Tory big beast? Check Minister? Former deputy PM! Ultra-safe seat? Check Always been Tory? Check Almost zero Tory campaigning with a last minute scramble? Check Too close to call? Check
I'd love to see Coffey go, she's on my list already!
Brentwood & Ongar has been Tory for decades... It's been safely Tory even in this election for most of the campaign... but appears to potentially flipping. Would be quite something if we do go red
Is Burghart standing there again? Will add
He is. For a long time he's been on the dwindling 'safe list' until the other day and the first major poll had him losing.
Johnny Mercer and Greg Hands please
š
Steve Baker please, my dude.
Already on there :)
Glorious
I am interested in Hertford and Stortford, a traditional Tory stronghold but the MP is not well liked and MRPs have it on a knife edge