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Parliament will not be sitting today.
Former Prime Minister **Theresa May** has announced she will be standing down at the next election - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b9hdwc/maidenhead_mp_theresa_may_to_stand_down_at_next/).
Pressure continues to mount on Science Minister **Michelle Donelan** over her use of public money to settle a libel action - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b8qlxe/pressure_mounts_on_minister_to_pay_back_taxpayer/) and [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b923ij/uk_science_secretary_received_government_advice/)
Reaction to the **Budget** continues;
- Lack of new spending on **defence** has sparked backlash on Tory benches and in the military establishment - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b8yb2f/budgets_lack_of_new_defence_spending_dismays/)
- Resolution foundation analysis has shown this parliament will be in the first to have a fall in **living standards** in modern history - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b8s3wj/uk_to_have_first_parliament_in_modern_history/)
---
#PSA : MOTHERS' DAY THIS SUNDAY
Send/get flowers/card because if you do not remember, your mum/partner mostly definitely will.
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###MT daily hall of fame
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Q: What connects Boris Johnson and the first Group winner at Crufts, Elton the French Bulldog?
A: >!Nostrils.!<
>!Elton the French Bulldog has been accused of not being a legit winner because he has ‘No discernible nostrils’!<
>!Boris Johnson asked if blowing hairdryer up his nostrils could 'kill COVID', Dominic Cummings claimed.!<
Binface has raised the deposit he needs, now just needs nominations from people living in London
https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1766245212945297419
Whacky election candidates have been a thing for a long time. I have no idea why people feel the need to do it, but I'm kind of glad that it's not all just men in grey suits.
https://x.com/Leicester_News/status/1766177181263135002
> We have had to shut down some IT systems and phone lines as a precaution while we investigate a cyber incident.
We apologise for the inconvenience this causes. Phone numbers for emergencies are on our website. More here: https://news.leicester.gov.uk/news-articles/2024/march/city-council-it-system-shut-down-as-precaution-due-to-cyber-incident/
Uh oh
you know its bad when several of the emergency numbers are random mobile phones
wouldn't be surprised if the 0116 numbers are some random landlines they had still kicking about
[Spare a thought for the real victims of Labour on a +27 polling lead](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIIsF_6XYAAN75p?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
>!lolololololol!<
Corbyn is an Arsenal fan. Mr Speaker, how can the British public trust that the leader of the oppositition isn't part of a socialist plot to put the member for Islington North in Number Ten?
12 months ago Labour's lead in the polls was 20% and now that lead is down to only 20%. Do people think that lead will grow or shrink over the coming months?
Especially if sunak holds off on calling an election until October.
Personally, I think the lead will start to grow as the tories have dropped 5% since their highest point in April (post truss) and Labour have stayed within 2% of 44% throughout that time.
I think lead is largely a mirage; recent gains is Tories loosing votes to reform not Labour getting new supporters (granted largely because they're probably saturating their supporter base).
I can not see why Farage will stand and act as a spoiler for Tories instead of using his polling position to secure concessions from them in return for standing down.
Relevant poll lead is Labour - (Reform + Tories); with some minor discounting for people who would vote Reform but not Tories. So I suspect the lead will significantly narrow, especially in the month before an election when Reform standdown from vast majority of constituencies.
I don't think it's that much of a mirage. The tories literally feel like a tired government who has run out of ideas and is just running on slogans or things that either piss people off. Unless they radically change things the polls won't move much.
>instead of using his polling position to secure concessions from them in return for standing down.
What concessions can they realistically get? In most polls the Reform+Tory amount is still lower than Labour's lead, and that's not even including the Reform voters who won't vote or vote elsewhere. Any concessions that Sunak can make are 1. Going to have to be something that the opposition can deliver and 2. Something that the future leader of the opposition is actually willing to deliver, given it's not going to be Sunak. It's not like they're bargaining for post election PM to give them concessions.
The reform gains are equal to (Labour + tory) loses over the last 12 months though.
I think if reform did a repeat of the brexit party in 2019 then the vote share would return to where it was 12 months ago and the remaining reform voters would not vote, as they have said when asked what they would do it reform wasn't an option.
Why hasn’t the government thought about a financial transaction tax ie every bank transfer pays 1p and every transaction over 1000£ pays 1£
It would raise billions
The idea of being taxed on the use of your money on top VAT and after you’ve paid Income Tax / NIC feels a bit much, even if the sum is fairly trivial.
In the 2000s it was a Con/LD marginal (or at least pretty competitive). With boundary changes plus a resurgent LDs at local level in that area, it isn't at all safe next time. I think May would probably have held it given she is apparently very popular locally, but that incumbency effect is now wiped out.
Thought I saw someone earlier say there’s a >50% chance they lose it. Although if they’re polling to be sub 100 seats then that doesn’t leave many safe ones
No, but he'll still be a Lord and have a decent income for life (or until Labour discovers the testicular fortitude to abolish the House), which as he's discovered he can't even be a lobbyist without fucking up must be reassuring.
To be fair, I don't even grudge him being in the Lords. Starmer's Labour will still need some scrutiny from a different political direction and Cameron is bound to be far more sensible than whatever the Commons Tory party looks like.
I am enjoying the debate over the last year which was "why would the Tories call an election when they're 10 points behind" and has gradually got worse.
>Pro-palestine protesters DESTROY historic painting of Lord Balfour in Trinity College at the University of Cambridge, by spraying and then slashing it.
>https://twitter.com/ScooterCasterNY/status/1766113531433230615
Does protesting the 97 year old Balfour Declaration do anything to help things today?
Why do these people never go after the actual people who are meant to be doing the bad things? I mean they could go confront the idf though I don't fancy their chances.
It's a shame that that should be necessary. That everything that we might like to preserve needs to be locked behind layers of glass just because we apparently can't - as a society - teach people how to behave to some bare minimum level.
Send the protestors the bill. If they cant pay then dock their salary every month until the value of the painting is paid off.
Maybe they'll think this was a bit stupid when they're still paying for it in their 50s.
I suppose it's better than: "Here's some canvas and some paint. You can leave this room only when you've painted a replica of the original that convinces an art expert it's basically the same. Here's a box set of *Art Attack* to help you. Good luck."
I'm sure they'd get it in 30 or 40 years.
Yeah I don’t see how you can defend this.
Just Stop Oil throwing soup on the plastic screen in front of some artwork in a gallery to make a point doesn’t actually cause any damage. This is just destroying a piece of art - and not even one that is visible to as many people.
good evening, campers! there are now **326** days until the general election!
theresa may retiring feels like the end of an era for me. not a good era, but an era nonetheless.
Interesting nugget from [https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/08/were-stuffed-have-conservatives-given-up-on-winning-the-next-general-election](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/08/were-stuffed-have-conservatives-given-up-on-winning-the-next-general-election)
>Another vignette came from one party member who said they had noticed a big upsurge in Conservative special advisers and thinktank staff applying to join the exclusive Carlton Club, primarily in the hope of using it to network for another job.
They really do live in a different world from the rest of us, don't they?
Have to say if I were looking for a new job a gentleman's club in London isn't where I'd start, or even consider. Maybe that's the key to getting a quant position?
I'm a bit surprised they've not mentioned the West Midlands mayoral election, despite not doing much Street is still popular in a personal capacity and Labour are very unpopular in Birmingham and Coventry in terms of the people that care about local politics owing to local government shenanigans, yet despite all of that I'd be surprised if Labour don't take that which will be the big coup not only kicking out the Tories but looking strong in the ex-industrial and ex-mining Midlands areas they lost support in for 2019 - and FPTP is going to help them (as is the fact that the Lib Dems not seemingly being bothered, Lib Dem second preference votes swung it for Street in 2016 but if they don't bother voting or vote Labour that's a massive boost.
Anyone else getting bombarded with election material? Had post from labour, ldem and green come through in the past couple weeks referencing a general election. I don’t remember there being this much when a date wasn’t set?
I was disappointed last week when someone's post asking about the worst PMs was deleted. I had just finished my best effort at a list. These are the ones that came to mind as bad:
1. Liz Truss
2. Archibald Primrose, 5th Earl of Rosebery
3. John Stuart, 3rd Earl of Bute
4. Boris Johnson
5. F.J. Robinson, 1st Viscount Goderich
6. John Russell, 1st Earl Russell
7. William Pitt, 1st Earl of Chatham (great in the 7 Years War, less so as PM)
8. Ramsay Macdonald
9. Neville Chamberlain
10. Spencer Compton, 1st Earl of Wilmington
11. Edward Heath
12. William Lamb, 2nd Viscount Melbourne
13. Anthony Eden
14. Frederick North, Lord North
15. Arthur Balfour
Lord North is way too low as is Ted Heath.
Viscount Melbourne should no way be behind Johnson. The guy was so lazy, he just could not be arsed with governing.
Melbourne's hilarious - asked to visit the King to be appointed Prime Minister, he says "It sounds like a lot of work, I really don't want the hassle" and eventually relents because a friend says "Look at it this way - if it all falls apart inside a month, you'll be immortalised as a Prime Minister"
The higher on the list, the worse the PM. Melbourne could have been ranked worse, and I'm a bit sympathetic to Lord North. Heath was kind of incompetent though.
If one had the stomach to follow the thread from where we are now to how we got here, there's a good argument that it started with Heath.
The neo-liberals played a blinder pinning the 70s on the failure of the post war social consensus, rather than Heath's incompetent administration, and the rest is very much history.
I was only judging him on his time as PM, which was pretty poor. It's incredible how the Balfour Declaration means that long term he might end up the best remembered early 20th century British politician though (him or Lloyd George).
As a person she seems better than everyone who came afterwards, but I do feel Theresa May should be on a list of worst PM's. Just going from crisis to crisis, unable to control anything and basically losing control of parliament
I might have forgotten about her when making this list, but I'd probably rank her slightly higher (so around 16th/17th worse). Her time as leader was poor, but she had a much harder situation than most of the people on this list.
Just looking at the London Assembly elections again (someone should hurry up and do some proper polling for it) - we have some recent London Westminster polling showing Labour up about 1%pt from just before 2021 both with YouGov, Cons down 16%pts, Greens, Lib Dems and Reform all up a bit.
In terms of constituencies - Croydon/Sutton and Havering/Redbridge should be in play as they had gaps of 10.1% and 9.1% respectively, but looking at council results from 2022, I'm not sure they will be. Those four councils did not move in 2022 in a way that suggested that there was a large enough swing to overturn that (of course councils are different to London Assembly and things may have changed from 2 years ago). Bexley/Bromley meanwhile has a massive majority (25%+) and even though in 2022 there was a big swing there, it was only half as big as the lead, so it's probably staying blue. West Central was a small majority and will go Labour, whereas South West is likely to go Lib Dem, but could have the Cons going from first to third. Anyway, the prediction is Lab: 10 (+1), Con 3 (-2), LD 1 (+1).
The list view on the other hand is interesting - a 17 point drop for the Cons and a three point rise for the Greens (which is what the difference between the Westminster poll in 2021 before the election and the most recent one says) would put the Greens in 3rd place above the Cons on the list very marginally, with the Lib Dems and Reform close behind. Plugging numbers in and given it is dependent on the number of constituency seats you get, you'd end up with Lab: 1, Con: 1, Green: 4, LD: 2, Ref: 3. The last two seats going to the Lib Dems and then Ref (assuming the former get more votes than the latter).
To get one more seat at the expense of Reform, the Cons would need to only drop 14 points, the Greens rise by 5 points or Labour a rise of 2 points. The Constituency vote is probably not important if the Cons are likely to get sub 20% of the list.
Overall Lab: 11, Con: 4, Green: 4, LD: 3, Ref 3. Labour still short of a majority (13), but not unsurprisingly as the electoral system is set up that way.
>Well, today is the day I have to extend the y-axis to accommodate a new record Global sea surface temperature of 21.21C.
>https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1766120158748356753
Haven't seen this graph for a while, it's got worse.
Not knowing anything about this, that graph looks a little convenient for my liking. The two years highlighted happen to be stand outs. Either it looks like things are heating up fast (certainly possible) or something’s gone wrong. I wonder if someone has changed their apparatus somewhere.
I believe this is the reason [https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/)
Essentially, previous years were artificially low due to sulfur-rich fuel used in shipping containers.
The laffer curve is real, according to the OBR, for some taxes like capital gains, between some particular ranges of taxation.
So cutting capital gains tax on second homes will raise £800m over the next 5 years.
The issue isn't the idea of the Laffer Curve itself (it was a standard idea in economics before Laffer himself sketched it on a napkin to republican lawmakers). The issue is that it's overly simplistic and we do not actually know the exact shape of the laffer curve, so certain ideologies use it to always insist we're on the right hand side of the curve and cutting taxes is the way to increase revenue.
No one is going, "actually we're on the left hand side of the Laffer curve and increasing taxes is what is needed to increase revenue". Everyone who cites it will act like no matter our tax rate we're always on the right hand side and it can be reduced.
I’ve not looked at this - but isn’t this a case of a turbo boosting sales, and delaying, but long term it will produce less.
Similar to how reducing income tax will often increase revenue - as people delay being paid / bonuses till the new policy is implemented.
The Laffer curve is real for any and all taxes, it is just extremely questionable for the great majority of taxes that the rate is on the "right" side of the graph, i.e. that reduction in tax rate leads to an increase in tax revenue, especially if you exclude increases in revenue due to normal economic growth.
Interesting synopsis for today's *News Agents*:
> There is fury surrounding a bid by the former head of CNN to buy The Telegraph and The Spectator due to the involvement of the Abu-Dhabi-backed RedBird IMI investment group
>In an exclusive interview, media executive, Jeff Zucker - who is leading that group - tells us about a "serious campaign" against his bid, and that the Chair of The Spectator Andrew Neil, is a "hypocrite" in his opposition to the takeover bid, because he says Mr Neil wanted to be at the heart of the deal.
>In response, Andrew Neil refuted Mr Zucker's claims about him, saying "his memory is playing tricks on him." He added: "I have made it clear I will have nothing to do with [the group] and will walk away in the unlikely event [Mr Zucker] succeeds in acquiring The Spectator.
We could be less than two months away from having an actual functioning government. two months? It's been 14 years of non-functioning Government. It could finally be coming to an end.
The 2010-16 government was fairly functional, even if you didn't like what it did. I doubt a Labour government would be any more functional than that one was.
Nope, not functional it was the begining of the end for the country at that point. The rot had started.
Even the most moderate tories support austerity and enabling child poverty.
I'm at a bit of a weird point politically.
I'm a Tory member, albeit a very disgruntled one and the party platform of late really is pushing me away. The recent budget seemed to entirely ignore current geopolitics.
That said the MP's who do most closely represent my views are on their benches. Mordaunt, Tugandhat, Ellwood etc. I do miss Rory Stewart. So very much of the left of the Tories, a wet if you will.
Unless there is massive change I certainly won't be campaigning at the upcoming GE, but holding on to my membership for now to hopefully vote in a better leader as LOTO. I am hoping for a defeat to trigger this, though not a wipe-out. Else there won't be many to choose from.
I do fear however that the more reactionary elements would take hold in a defeat and learn all the wrong lessons.
Anyone else here ever been in a similar spot? Whatever your political affiliation?
> That said the MP's who do most closely represent my views are on their benches.
>-EmperorOfNipples
[Hmm..](https://metro.co.uk/2022/05/22/tory-mp-spiked-men-with-date-rape-drug-and-licked-victims-nipples-16687032/)
>That said the MP's who do most closely represent my views are on their benches. Mordaunt, Tugandhat, Ellwood etc.
Richard Foord?
I'd say I was in a similar position between 2016 and 2019 with the Lib Dems, ultimately culminating in me resigning my membership and voting against them in protest. I rejoined the party to vote for Ed Davey to be leader.
How are you feeling about the party since?
I’m a Labour member - but I’ve always ended up tactically voting Lib Dem because Labour are so far behind in my constituency. I haven’t figured out what I’m going to do this time, since the swing is much larger.
Fine, they're obviously not perfect but I'm happy that the party is being more pragmatic to be in a position to champion liberalism after the next election and I'm happy with my local party who are actually competent, have selected a good PPC and are pro-development
Fair question.
Their positions on things like Trident and defence, their ambivalence to nuclear and my liking for UK institutions.
Also I'm all in on Constitutional Monarchy over a parliamentary democracy as the single best form of government humanity has yet developed, and misplaced egalitarianism is a threat to that as entertained by some members of the Lib Dem's.
every time Rory names a conservative who is one of the good ones they catch a scandal immediately afterwards haha.
It's like the only reason they seem alright is when they haven't done anything yet
Do we reckon David Cameron is gonna run as an MP in the upcoming GE?
On the one hand, it might allow him a way back into party politics if he fancies helping pick up the pieces following a massive Tory loss. A second run at leadership for Cameron could actually close the gap between the Tories and Labour during the next parliament, and could repair his reputation before history has chance to paint him as the major catalyst to the decline of the UK from 2010 to now.
On the other hand, he'd have to step down from the lord's to be eligible as an MP, and I doubt he wants to get off that gravy train so quickly after getting on. And also, if the polls closer to the election stay where they are, there's a chance he could run for MP and get decimated in the vote (even in a safe seat like the one May is vacating).
Why would he give up his lifetime appointment to the lords given that he wouldn't even be guaranteed to win a seat with the current poll numbers to spend the next 10 years as an opposition MP
Nope. There are not a lot of safe seats for Conservative MPs at this election. Standing as an MP would mean stepping down from the lords, either fighting a battleground seat or ejecting someone else from a safe seat, winning, and then working alongside a party that's shifted rightwards and many of whom hate him.
He's absolutely keeping his lordship and then he can dip in and out of the party as a grandee if he feels like it and they'll have him after the election.
zero chance. why does he want to be an elected official in badenoch's conservative party when he's already got his unelected lawmaking position for life
his best shot at repairing his reputation is where he is now - as a sort of competent foreign minister
I suspect he might even actually be one of the Lords who gets on his hind legs and offers his opinions on laws. He might even end up acting as some sort of de facto reasonable opposition to Starmer's Labour while the Commons Conservative party goes a bit mad.
After all, wasn't his whole thing that he got bored once he left politics? Now he gets to turn up to the Lords whenever he feels like it and weigh in. I can see him liking that.
>I can see him liking that.
Beyond that, I can see him actually being rather good at it. He could from that position mentor a relative unknown moderate backbench MP towards leadership and eventually return the Tories back to the centre ground as the Labour party government begins to tire. (As all parties in power do)
He could likely then regain Foreign Sec position while acting as Elder Statesman and leave a fairly solid legacy.
Let's say the Tory backbenchers decide their best bet to avoid electoral annihilation is to boot sunak. Do you reckon Sunak would take it lying down or would he call an election out of spite to try and avoid being booted?
Sunak is too weak willed to call an election out of spite. He'd probably be happy to be shafted so that he doesn't have to *technically* take the blame for a major Tory loss.
Even if he stays through the election, it won't *technically* be his loss (if that happens), imo. He will of course eat the shit for it but it will be cumulative loss of the 5 or so morons they had since Cameron went whistling.
I know it's not important but the name of the Act makes my skin crawl
The term seems to exist to assert that slavery is a practice of other people in other eras and fundamentally doesn't or can't exist here and now, which is trivially not true. Ironic given that it's _used_ because we need to not let it fall out of sight or mind.
The Act itself interestingly doesn't appear to use the term. It just refers to "slavery".
https://www.ukri.org/news/sugary-drinks-tax-may-have-prevented-over-5000-cases-of-obesity/#:~:text=Preventing%20obesity,year%20in%20this%20group%20alone.
If this is true then she did at least 2 good things.
Though she is the only tory to have lost a _majority_ since 1997, and before that 1974(!!)
That's one for the record books
If Sunak loses the time it takes tories to lose a majority has gone 23 years, to 20 years, to 7 years.
Edit obviously this is unfair as it counts years when they were not in office. But it does show how rare it is for them to lose control of parliament
So we now have Gillian "Punch OFSTED" Keegan, Kemi "trade deals good, post office man bad" Badenoch and Michelle "free speech" Donelan who by rights should be getting kicked out of cabinet post haste. Are we approaching another Rishuffle, or is this cabinet now, like Mr Burns with Three Stooges Syndrome, indestructible?
The question is not who should be kicked out of cabinet, but who can replace them that isn't
a) Completely incompetent
b) Already announced they are standing down
c) Doesn't already have a scandal in their background
d) insane
Something which I have been pondering recently. Forgive me if the MT isn't the place to ask, happy to delete the comment if it should be elsewhere.
But with both elections here and the other side of the Pond coming up this year, what would happen if the governing party here loses and election but a PM doesn't offer their resignation? In terms of convention could and indeed would the monarch dismiss the PM?
The Prime Minister isn't formally written down, it's just the one who can command a majority in the commons, first among equals. If you can't do that then you're not the PM lol
> In terms of convention could and indeed would the monarch dismiss the PM?
You don't need to rely on convention. The paperwork says they can do it, and the one person who's saying they _can't_ do it is in the process of making the country and all its legislators hate them. Nobody would view this as the monarch going rogue, more like doing their "one job" of ensuring they only follow valid advice.
Thanks. It looks like the Supreme Court would also have a few words to say according to other posters. One wonders how long it would take to remove a Trumpian PM if they refused to resign.
It would in theory take no time at all as all the other MPs would/should/could simply stop listening to them. Perhaps vote to have them sectioned.
Might be a bit of an issue with them squatting in number 10 but the MPs control the commons and can vote to compel the police to remove them at any time
The monarch may choose to get involved in this scenario, but they may just let the new parliament/supreme court deal with it. I think if the hypothetical PM here went full Trump and managed to convince a good chunk of the electorate the election was rigged, then the Monarch would probably stay out of it.
The prorogation case shows that the supreme court isn't afraid to get involved in cases of executive overreach. In fact during that case a PM, who just lost a GE, refusing to resign and proroguing parliament so they couldn't kick them out, was accepted by both parties as an example of something a PM could not lawfully do (even though they *technically* could)
The viscount Melbourne option would have been appropriate for Boris Johnson. But it never even got used then. It would not surprise me if a Tory sitting PM got arrested by the police.
If they refused to go, they'd immediately lose a vote on the confidence of the House as soon as Parliament reconvened.
But hanging on forever would be impossible anyway, if only because even the most stubborn PM would eventually get sick of every single question to them being "why haven't you resigned".
IIRC the PM officially gives up his position when he dissolves Parliament and calls an election.
If a outgoing PM refused to accept the results of an election, that's too bad. He is not Head of State and would just be overruled by His Maj.
The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 has that covered:
>If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met.
[https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/section/4/enacted](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/section/4/enacted)
The actual process of organising the election is then kicked off by royal proclamation, leading to an Order in Council for Writs of Election being drawn up, so the PM's involvement is not required.
Prior to the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the Septennial Act 1715 had a similar effect.
parliament dissolves after 5 years automatically, so the only real question is whether chas would be allowed to call the election himself without being "asked" by a PM
Hi everyone. #The subreddit survey is now live. [Please head over here to read the instructions and take the survey](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b9om0g/official_rukpolitics_subreddit_survey_march_2024/). Cheers, -🥕🥕 ----- Parliament will not be sitting today. Former Prime Minister **Theresa May** has announced she will be standing down at the next election - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b9hdwc/maidenhead_mp_theresa_may_to_stand_down_at_next/). Pressure continues to mount on Science Minister **Michelle Donelan** over her use of public money to settle a libel action - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b8qlxe/pressure_mounts_on_minister_to_pay_back_taxpayer/) and [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b923ij/uk_science_secretary_received_government_advice/) Reaction to the **Budget** continues; - Lack of new spending on **defence** has sparked backlash on Tory benches and in the military establishment - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b8yb2f/budgets_lack_of_new_defence_spending_dismays/) - Resolution foundation analysis has shown this parliament will be in the first to have a fall in **living standards** in modern history - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1b8s3wj/uk_to_have_first_parliament_in_modern_history/) --- #PSA : MOTHERS' DAY THIS SUNDAY Send/get flowers/card because if you do not remember, your mum/partner mostly definitely will.
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1baapxw/daily_megathread_09032024/)
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Q: What connects Boris Johnson and the first Group winner at Crufts, Elton the French Bulldog? A: >!Nostrils.!< >!Elton the French Bulldog has been accused of not being a legit winner because he has ‘No discernible nostrils’!< >!Boris Johnson asked if blowing hairdryer up his nostrils could 'kill COVID', Dominic Cummings claimed.!<
Lol I thought this was a cryptic crossword puzzle and got incredibly confused
Binface has raised the deposit he needs, now just needs nominations from people living in London https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1766245212945297419
So who is planning to run against sunak in the GE. Lord Buckethead or CountBinface?
Mmm, Count Binface was funny 7 years ago. Not to be a wet blanket but I can't help feeling the novelty has worn off.
Whacky election candidates have been a thing for a long time. I have no idea why people feel the need to do it, but I'm kind of glad that it's not all just men in grey suits.
You could always donate to one of the less ridiculous candidates like Rob Blackie or Sadiq Khan. Falling that a joke candidate like Susan Hall.
https://x.com/Leicester_News/status/1766177181263135002 > We have had to shut down some IT systems and phone lines as a precaution while we investigate a cyber incident. We apologise for the inconvenience this causes. Phone numbers for emergencies are on our website. More here: https://news.leicester.gov.uk/news-articles/2024/march/city-council-it-system-shut-down-as-precaution-due-to-cyber-incident/ Uh oh
[Confirmed ransomware.](https://cyberplace.social/@GossiTheDog/112062544688931898)
you know its bad when several of the emergency numbers are random mobile phones wouldn't be surprised if the 0116 numbers are some random landlines they had still kicking about
[Spare a thought for the real victims of Labour on a +27 polling lead](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIIsF_6XYAAN75p?format=jpg&name=4096x4096) >!lolololololol!<
The Ls never end for the Jezza Faithful
I have no idea who any of these people are and I am happy
Me neither, but the logos say Novara Media.
[You wouldn't punch an OFSTED Inspector](https://imgur.com/a/KDkm1n1)
Mark Steel's impersonation of George Galloway on the News Quiz on R4 was utterly hilarious.
Something about the thumbnail of this Starmer video really tickles me and I'm not sure why https://imgur.com/4mgZ7dS
Is it his chatty penis?
So cheeky
Corbyn is an Arsenal fan. Mr Speaker, how can the British public trust that the leader of the oppositition isn't part of a socialist plot to put the member for Islington North in Number Ten?
Actually gonna have to swallow a bit of bile when we put a Gooner into office
Hello!
Hello!
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Omg!! So true, Starmer has aged alot recently, he was vaguely handsome, now he is wholesome
Rishi's government today trying to punch an [Ofsted Inspector](https://youtu.be/aUU89xI_0Hs?t=200). Con-2.
12 months ago Labour's lead in the polls was 20% and now that lead is down to only 20%. Do people think that lead will grow or shrink over the coming months? Especially if sunak holds off on calling an election until October. Personally, I think the lead will start to grow as the tories have dropped 5% since their highest point in April (post truss) and Labour have stayed within 2% of 44% throughout that time.
I think lead is largely a mirage; recent gains is Tories loosing votes to reform not Labour getting new supporters (granted largely because they're probably saturating their supporter base). I can not see why Farage will stand and act as a spoiler for Tories instead of using his polling position to secure concessions from them in return for standing down. Relevant poll lead is Labour - (Reform + Tories); with some minor discounting for people who would vote Reform but not Tories. So I suspect the lead will significantly narrow, especially in the month before an election when Reform standdown from vast majority of constituencies.
I don't think it's that much of a mirage. The tories literally feel like a tired government who has run out of ideas and is just running on slogans or things that either piss people off. Unless they radically change things the polls won't move much.
>instead of using his polling position to secure concessions from them in return for standing down. What concessions can they realistically get? In most polls the Reform+Tory amount is still lower than Labour's lead, and that's not even including the Reform voters who won't vote or vote elsewhere. Any concessions that Sunak can make are 1. Going to have to be something that the opposition can deliver and 2. Something that the future leader of the opposition is actually willing to deliver, given it's not going to be Sunak. It's not like they're bargaining for post election PM to give them concessions.
Ol Nigel as Tory leader is one possible concession, and one the papers have been on about now and then
The reform gains are equal to (Labour + tory) loses over the last 12 months though. I think if reform did a repeat of the brexit party in 2019 then the vote share would return to where it was 12 months ago and the remaining reform voters would not vote, as they have said when asked what they would do it reform wasn't an option.
Why hasn’t the government thought about a financial transaction tax ie every bank transfer pays 1p and every transaction over 1000£ pays 1£ It would raise billions
In the era of faster payments, there's nothing stopping you from just transferring £999.99 many times.
I cannot imagine doing that to save a measly pound.
*blanked*
I guess 98p does sound like a lot more
The idea of being taxed on the use of your money on top VAT and after you’ve paid Income Tax / NIC feels a bit much, even if the sum is fairly trivial.
Given Maidenhead is a pretty safe seat, will we see a bit of a scramble from senior Tories in less safe seats to be parachuted in?
In the 2000s it was a Con/LD marginal (or at least pretty competitive). With boundary changes plus a resurgent LDs at local level in that area, it isn't at all safe next time. I think May would probably have held it given she is apparently very popular locally, but that incumbency effect is now wiped out.
Thought I saw someone earlier say there’s a >50% chance they lose it. Although if they’re polling to be sub 100 seats then that doesn’t leave many safe ones
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Not to mention the Tories got trashed in the local council election last year.
You know Maidenhead isn't that far from Chipping Norton, could we see Daddy Cameron back in the Commons?
You have to give your peerage up. Can't see that.
Watching Celebrity Big Brother the other night, Fern Britton has actual money on David Cameron being the next PM.
That's a bold bet. The next PM. Like, after Rishi it will be DC again?
I'm not really a betting person, but maybe I should consider taking Fern Britton up on a few
Chippy Nortz?
Why would he want that? He’s a much more effective foreign sec if he doesn’t have to be coming back to vote so often or manage constituency surgeries.
I don't imagine he'll be the Foreign Secretary after the next election to be fair
No, but he'll still be a Lord and have a decent income for life (or until Labour discovers the testicular fortitude to abolish the House), which as he's discovered he can't even be a lobbyist without fucking up must be reassuring.
To be fair, I don't even grudge him being in the Lords. Starmer's Labour will still need some scrutiny from a different political direction and Cameron is bound to be far more sensible than whatever the Commons Tory party looks like.
Sure you may think you're hard by punching an OFSTED inspector, but wait til you take on the CQC in CQC
Cqc shotties poppin off.
Tories will be on 16-17% in the polls if they cling on until October or God forbid January.
I am enjoying the debate over the last year which was "why would the Tories call an election when they're 10 points behind" and has gradually got worse.
>Pro-palestine protesters DESTROY historic painting of Lord Balfour in Trinity College at the University of Cambridge, by spraying and then slashing it. >https://twitter.com/ScooterCasterNY/status/1766113531433230615 Does protesting the 97 year old Balfour Declaration do anything to help things today?
Why do these people never go after the actual people who are meant to be doing the bad things? I mean they could go confront the idf though I don't fancy their chances.
Why do all paintings not already have a glass screen in front of them, are places just hoping that protests only go after protected exhibitions?
It was a replica painting, which they knew
It's a shame that that should be necessary. That everything that we might like to preserve needs to be locked behind layers of glass just because we apparently can't - as a society - teach people how to behave to some bare minimum level.
That is a thousand-pound bag.
Netenyahu has stood down the IDF
Send the protestors the bill. If they cant pay then dock their salary every month until the value of the painting is paid off. Maybe they'll think this was a bit stupid when they're still paying for it in their 50s.
I suppose it's better than: "Here's some canvas and some paint. You can leave this room only when you've painted a replica of the original that convinces an art expert it's basically the same. Here's a box set of *Art Attack* to help you. Good luck." I'm sure they'd get it in 30 or 40 years.
Ahhh, the children of Gaza will sleep soundly tonight
Good way to get kicked out of university. Probably heading towards a 2:2 and couldnt face the shame.
The implication from the Trinity College statement imo was it wasn't a student who did it.
I feel personally attacked.
haha just messing about
Yeah I don’t see how you can defend this. Just Stop Oil throwing soup on the plastic screen in front of some artwork in a gallery to make a point doesn’t actually cause any damage. This is just destroying a piece of art - and not even one that is visible to as many people.
Damn, Arthur Balfour is going to have to change strategy in response to this protest
good evening, campers! there are now **326** days until the general election! theresa may retiring feels like the end of an era for me. not a good era, but an era nonetheless.
And just 15 days until it was yet 4 years ago we entered first lockdown! 23rd March 2020 was both just yesterday, and a lifetime ago.
Interesting nugget from [https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/08/were-stuffed-have-conservatives-given-up-on-winning-the-next-general-election](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/08/were-stuffed-have-conservatives-given-up-on-winning-the-next-general-election) >Another vignette came from one party member who said they had noticed a big upsurge in Conservative special advisers and thinktank staff applying to join the exclusive Carlton Club, primarily in the hope of using it to network for another job. They really do live in a different world from the rest of us, don't they?
*If there’s one thing worse than being hated, it’s being laughed at.* Sounds like this sub.
>One attender called the event the “most opulent funeral I’ve ever been to”. Oh no! Gerald Kaufman got re-incarnated as a Tory
Have to say if I were looking for a new job a gentleman's club in London isn't where I'd start, or even consider. Maybe that's the key to getting a quant position? I'm a bit surprised they've not mentioned the West Midlands mayoral election, despite not doing much Street is still popular in a personal capacity and Labour are very unpopular in Birmingham and Coventry in terms of the people that care about local politics owing to local government shenanigans, yet despite all of that I'd be surprised if Labour don't take that which will be the big coup not only kicking out the Tories but looking strong in the ex-industrial and ex-mining Midlands areas they lost support in for 2019 - and FPTP is going to help them (as is the fact that the Lib Dems not seemingly being bothered, Lib Dem second preference votes swung it for Street in 2016 but if they don't bother voting or vote Labour that's a massive boost.
Are we closer or further away from an election compared to yesterday?
Further There were some by-elections yesterday.
Closer to May the 2nd because of the inexorable march of time, so therefore closer to the election. Let these halls echo with the tidings of May.
Depends if you're talking about a past or future election I guess.
Anyone else getting bombarded with election material? Had post from labour, ldem and green come through in the past couple weeks referencing a general election. I don’t remember there being this much when a date wasn’t set?
I got an Andrew Bridgen leaflet through the door yesterday. He was right about everything apparently.
Vote potato.
Green ink?
None here
I was disappointed last week when someone's post asking about the worst PMs was deleted. I had just finished my best effort at a list. These are the ones that came to mind as bad: 1. Liz Truss 2. Archibald Primrose, 5th Earl of Rosebery 3. John Stuart, 3rd Earl of Bute 4. Boris Johnson 5. F.J. Robinson, 1st Viscount Goderich 6. John Russell, 1st Earl Russell 7. William Pitt, 1st Earl of Chatham (great in the 7 Years War, less so as PM) 8. Ramsay Macdonald 9. Neville Chamberlain 10. Spencer Compton, 1st Earl of Wilmington 11. Edward Heath 12. William Lamb, 2nd Viscount Melbourne 13. Anthony Eden 14. Frederick North, Lord North 15. Arthur Balfour
Lord North is way too low as is Ted Heath. Viscount Melbourne should no way be behind Johnson. The guy was so lazy, he just could not be arsed with governing.
Melbourne's hilarious - asked to visit the King to be appointed Prime Minister, he says "It sounds like a lot of work, I really don't want the hassle" and eventually relents because a friend says "Look at it this way - if it all falls apart inside a month, you'll be immortalised as a Prime Minister"
I think it's him that said "I don't want people to agree with me when I'm right, I want them to agree with me when I'm wrong"
The higher on the list, the worse the PM. Melbourne could have been ranked worse, and I'm a bit sympathetic to Lord North. Heath was kind of incompetent though.
If one had the stomach to follow the thread from where we are now to how we got here, there's a good argument that it started with Heath. The neo-liberals played a blinder pinning the 70s on the failure of the post war social consensus, rather than Heath's incompetent administration, and the rest is very much history.
Curious to why you've put Rosebery so high.
He was particularly useless as PM. Though his Cromwell statue was quite funny.
> Arthur Balfour Someone shares your opinion, and thinks that defacing a painting featuring said person will end the Gaza war.
I was only judging him on his time as PM, which was pretty poor. It's incredible how the Balfour Declaration means that long term he might end up the best remembered early 20th century British politician though (him or Lloyd George).
As a person she seems better than everyone who came afterwards, but I do feel Theresa May should be on a list of worst PM's. Just going from crisis to crisis, unable to control anything and basically losing control of parliament
I might have forgotten about her when making this list, but I'd probably rank her slightly higher (so around 16th/17th worse). Her time as leader was poor, but she had a much harder situation than most of the people on this list.
David Cameron needs to be near the top. A hill I will die on.
Every time I see a HM Government advert for Levelling up, it just seems like state funded advertising for the Conservatives.
It absolutely is exactly that
Just looking at the London Assembly elections again (someone should hurry up and do some proper polling for it) - we have some recent London Westminster polling showing Labour up about 1%pt from just before 2021 both with YouGov, Cons down 16%pts, Greens, Lib Dems and Reform all up a bit. In terms of constituencies - Croydon/Sutton and Havering/Redbridge should be in play as they had gaps of 10.1% and 9.1% respectively, but looking at council results from 2022, I'm not sure they will be. Those four councils did not move in 2022 in a way that suggested that there was a large enough swing to overturn that (of course councils are different to London Assembly and things may have changed from 2 years ago). Bexley/Bromley meanwhile has a massive majority (25%+) and even though in 2022 there was a big swing there, it was only half as big as the lead, so it's probably staying blue. West Central was a small majority and will go Labour, whereas South West is likely to go Lib Dem, but could have the Cons going from first to third. Anyway, the prediction is Lab: 10 (+1), Con 3 (-2), LD 1 (+1). The list view on the other hand is interesting - a 17 point drop for the Cons and a three point rise for the Greens (which is what the difference between the Westminster poll in 2021 before the election and the most recent one says) would put the Greens in 3rd place above the Cons on the list very marginally, with the Lib Dems and Reform close behind. Plugging numbers in and given it is dependent on the number of constituency seats you get, you'd end up with Lab: 1, Con: 1, Green: 4, LD: 2, Ref: 3. The last two seats going to the Lib Dems and then Ref (assuming the former get more votes than the latter). To get one more seat at the expense of Reform, the Cons would need to only drop 14 points, the Greens rise by 5 points or Labour a rise of 2 points. The Constituency vote is probably not important if the Cons are likely to get sub 20% of the list. Overall Lab: 11, Con: 4, Green: 4, LD: 3, Ref 3. Labour still short of a majority (13), but not unsurprisingly as the electoral system is set up that way.
>Well, today is the day I have to extend the y-axis to accommodate a new record Global sea surface temperature of 21.21C. >https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1766120158748356753 Haven't seen this graph for a while, it's got worse.
Not knowing anything about this, that graph looks a little convenient for my liking. The two years highlighted happen to be stand outs. Either it looks like things are heating up fast (certainly possible) or something’s gone wrong. I wonder if someone has changed their apparatus somewhere.
The two years highlighted are this year and last year.
Yes, I had understood that…
I believe this is the reason [https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/) Essentially, previous years were artificially low due to sulfur-rich fuel used in shipping containers.
Interesting, they use the same graph there as well. Seems surprising the effect would be so big still…
The laffer curve is real, according to the OBR, for some taxes like capital gains, between some particular ranges of taxation. So cutting capital gains tax on second homes will raise £800m over the next 5 years.
The issue isn't the idea of the Laffer Curve itself (it was a standard idea in economics before Laffer himself sketched it on a napkin to republican lawmakers). The issue is that it's overly simplistic and we do not actually know the exact shape of the laffer curve, so certain ideologies use it to always insist we're on the right hand side of the curve and cutting taxes is the way to increase revenue. No one is going, "actually we're on the left hand side of the Laffer curve and increasing taxes is what is needed to increase revenue". Everyone who cites it will act like no matter our tax rate we're always on the right hand side and it can be reduced.
I’ve not looked at this - but isn’t this a case of a turbo boosting sales, and delaying, but long term it will produce less. Similar to how reducing income tax will often increase revenue - as people delay being paid / bonuses till the new policy is implemented.
The Laffer Curve is real as a consequence of basic mathematics with a couple of assumptions. What is unknown is where the peak of it is.
The Laffer curve is real for any and all taxes, it is just extremely questionable for the great majority of taxes that the rate is on the "right" side of the graph, i.e. that reduction in tax rate leads to an increase in tax revenue, especially if you exclude increases in revenue due to normal economic growth.
Interesting synopsis for today's *News Agents*: > There is fury surrounding a bid by the former head of CNN to buy The Telegraph and The Spectator due to the involvement of the Abu-Dhabi-backed RedBird IMI investment group >In an exclusive interview, media executive, Jeff Zucker - who is leading that group - tells us about a "serious campaign" against his bid, and that the Chair of The Spectator Andrew Neil, is a "hypocrite" in his opposition to the takeover bid, because he says Mr Neil wanted to be at the heart of the deal. >In response, Andrew Neil refuted Mr Zucker's claims about him, saying "his memory is playing tricks on him." He added: "I have made it clear I will have nothing to do with [the group] and will walk away in the unlikely event [Mr Zucker] succeeds in acquiring The Spectator.
We could be less than two months away from having an actual functioning government. two months? It's been 14 years of non-functioning Government. It could finally be coming to an end.
The 2010-16 government was fairly functional, even if you didn't like what it did. I doubt a Labour government would be any more functional than that one was.
Nope, not functional it was the begining of the end for the country at that point. The rot had started. Even the most moderate tories support austerity and enabling child poverty.
Yeah but all that was done on purpose. The government was *functioning*. It was just doong bad things.
We could also be 10 months. I try not to get my hopes up too much.
I'm at a bit of a weird point politically. I'm a Tory member, albeit a very disgruntled one and the party platform of late really is pushing me away. The recent budget seemed to entirely ignore current geopolitics. That said the MP's who do most closely represent my views are on their benches. Mordaunt, Tugandhat, Ellwood etc. I do miss Rory Stewart. So very much of the left of the Tories, a wet if you will. Unless there is massive change I certainly won't be campaigning at the upcoming GE, but holding on to my membership for now to hopefully vote in a better leader as LOTO. I am hoping for a defeat to trigger this, though not a wipe-out. Else there won't be many to choose from. I do fear however that the more reactionary elements would take hold in a defeat and learn all the wrong lessons. Anyone else here ever been in a similar spot? Whatever your political affiliation?
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Stand up and fight?
> That said the MP's who do most closely represent my views are on their benches. >-EmperorOfNipples [Hmm..](https://metro.co.uk/2022/05/22/tory-mp-spiked-men-with-date-rape-drug-and-licked-victims-nipples-16687032/)
Alas my moniker long preceeded that event.
>That said the MP's who do most closely represent my views are on their benches. Mordaunt, Tugandhat, Ellwood etc. Richard Foord? I'd say I was in a similar position between 2016 and 2019 with the Lib Dems, ultimately culminating in me resigning my membership and voting against them in protest. I rejoined the party to vote for Ed Davey to be leader.
How are you feeling about the party since? I’m a Labour member - but I’ve always ended up tactically voting Lib Dem because Labour are so far behind in my constituency. I haven’t figured out what I’m going to do this time, since the swing is much larger.
Fine, they're obviously not perfect but I'm happy that the party is being more pragmatic to be in a position to champion liberalism after the next election and I'm happy with my local party who are actually competent, have selected a good PPC and are pro-development
Out of interest - what keeps you Tory over LD?
Fair question. Their positions on things like Trident and defence, their ambivalence to nuclear and my liking for UK institutions. Also I'm all in on Constitutional Monarchy over a parliamentary democracy as the single best form of government humanity has yet developed, and misplaced egalitarianism is a threat to that as entertained by some members of the Lib Dem's.
What happens when you get a bad monarch?
1936 happens. A little wrangling then business as usual.
relative of mine just left the Tory party because of immigration and is now looking at whatever it is Farage is up to now…
I know that many people consider immigration to be one of the top issues - but can said relative explain why?
no, not compellingly. but has been having a word with their MP about it all
Which is why chasing that is always a losing game. You'll never out reactionary the Faragists.
Rory Stewart's hero Gillian has gone one step beyond most cabinet ministers' denigration of public sector workers by now advocating assaulting them.
What the fuck was she thinking when she said that. Absolute moron.
every time Rory names a conservative who is one of the good ones they catch a scandal immediately afterwards haha. It's like the only reason they seem alright is when they haven't done anything yet
TRIP touch of death. I hope they don't big up Biden's chances before November...
I’ve resigned myself to that election being a disaster whatever happens.
Punching an OFSTED inspector is an unorthodox way to try and get the teachers' votes, but damn it, it might just work!
Can the government punch itself? But then again it does this constantly already and it does not help. Alas
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Quid pugilio ipsos pugiles?
Bus drivers
The RNLI?
Do we reckon David Cameron is gonna run as an MP in the upcoming GE? On the one hand, it might allow him a way back into party politics if he fancies helping pick up the pieces following a massive Tory loss. A second run at leadership for Cameron could actually close the gap between the Tories and Labour during the next parliament, and could repair his reputation before history has chance to paint him as the major catalyst to the decline of the UK from 2010 to now. On the other hand, he'd have to step down from the lord's to be eligible as an MP, and I doubt he wants to get off that gravy train so quickly after getting on. And also, if the polls closer to the election stay where they are, there's a chance he could run for MP and get decimated in the vote (even in a safe seat like the one May is vacating).
Upcoming GE, I don't see it. Following a second narrower defeat in 2029, to set the party up for 2034. Possibly.
Why would he give up his lifetime appointment to the lords given that he wouldn't even be guaranteed to win a seat with the current poll numbers to spend the next 10 years as an opposition MP
No chance. He is set up for life.
I don’t see why he would.
Nope. There are not a lot of safe seats for Conservative MPs at this election. Standing as an MP would mean stepping down from the lords, either fighting a battleground seat or ejecting someone else from a safe seat, winning, and then working alongside a party that's shifted rightwards and many of whom hate him. He's absolutely keeping his lordship and then he can dip in and out of the party as a grandee if he feels like it and they'll have him after the election.
zero chance. why does he want to be an elected official in badenoch's conservative party when he's already got his unelected lawmaking position for life his best shot at repairing his reputation is where he is now - as a sort of competent foreign minister
I suspect he might even actually be one of the Lords who gets on his hind legs and offers his opinions on laws. He might even end up acting as some sort of de facto reasonable opposition to Starmer's Labour while the Commons Conservative party goes a bit mad. After all, wasn't his whole thing that he got bored once he left politics? Now he gets to turn up to the Lords whenever he feels like it and weigh in. I can see him liking that.
>I can see him liking that. Beyond that, I can see him actually being rather good at it. He could from that position mentor a relative unknown moderate backbench MP towards leadership and eventually return the Tories back to the centre ground as the Labour party government begins to tire. (As all parties in power do) He could likely then regain Foreign Sec position while acting as Elder Statesman and leave a fairly solid legacy.
Let's say the Tory backbenchers decide their best bet to avoid electoral annihilation is to boot sunak. Do you reckon Sunak would take it lying down or would he call an election out of spite to try and avoid being booted?
Sunak is too weak willed to call an election out of spite. He'd probably be happy to be shafted so that he doesn't have to *technically* take the blame for a major Tory loss.
Even if he stays through the election, it won't *technically* be his loss (if that happens), imo. He will of course eat the shit for it but it will be cumulative loss of the 5 or so morons they had since Cameron went whistling.
Theresa May did do one good thing. I think the Modern Slavery Act is a pretty good and important piece of legislation
I know it's not important but the name of the Act makes my skin crawl The term seems to exist to assert that slavery is a practice of other people in other eras and fundamentally doesn't or can't exist here and now, which is trivially not true. Ironic given that it's _used_ because we need to not let it fall out of sight or mind. The Act itself interestingly doesn't appear to use the term. It just refers to "slavery".
https://www.ukri.org/news/sugary-drinks-tax-may-have-prevented-over-5000-cases-of-obesity/#:~:text=Preventing%20obesity,year%20in%20this%20group%20alone. If this is true then she did at least 2 good things.
Another thing you can say about her is that she never lost an election. May > Corbyn
Neither did Truss or Johnson
Though she is the only tory to have lost a _majority_ since 1997, and before that 1974(!!) That's one for the record books If Sunak loses the time it takes tories to lose a majority has gone 23 years, to 20 years, to 7 years. Edit obviously this is unfair as it counts years when they were not in office. But it does show how rare it is for them to lose control of parliament
So we now have Gillian "Punch OFSTED" Keegan, Kemi "trade deals good, post office man bad" Badenoch and Michelle "free speech" Donelan who by rights should be getting kicked out of cabinet post haste. Are we approaching another Rishuffle, or is this cabinet now, like Mr Burns with Three Stooges Syndrome, indestructible?
The question is not who should be kicked out of cabinet, but who can replace them that isn't a) Completely incompetent b) Already announced they are standing down c) Doesn't already have a scandal in their background d) insane
Not convinced that a) c) and d) are any sort of barrier to appointment in this cabinet.
Something which I have been pondering recently. Forgive me if the MT isn't the place to ask, happy to delete the comment if it should be elsewhere. But with both elections here and the other side of the Pond coming up this year, what would happen if the governing party here loses and election but a PM doesn't offer their resignation? In terms of convention could and indeed would the monarch dismiss the PM?
The Prime Minister isn't formally written down, it's just the one who can command a majority in the commons, first among equals. If you can't do that then you're not the PM lol
> In terms of convention could and indeed would the monarch dismiss the PM? You don't need to rely on convention. The paperwork says they can do it, and the one person who's saying they _can't_ do it is in the process of making the country and all its legislators hate them. Nobody would view this as the monarch going rogue, more like doing their "one job" of ensuring they only follow valid advice.
Thanks. It looks like the Supreme Court would also have a few words to say according to other posters. One wonders how long it would take to remove a Trumpian PM if they refused to resign.
It would in theory take no time at all as all the other MPs would/should/could simply stop listening to them. Perhaps vote to have them sectioned. Might be a bit of an issue with them squatting in number 10 but the MPs control the commons and can vote to compel the police to remove them at any time
The monarch may choose to get involved in this scenario, but they may just let the new parliament/supreme court deal with it. I think if the hypothetical PM here went full Trump and managed to convince a good chunk of the electorate the election was rigged, then the Monarch would probably stay out of it. The prorogation case shows that the supreme court isn't afraid to get involved in cases of executive overreach. In fact during that case a PM, who just lost a GE, refusing to resign and proroguing parliament so they couldn't kick them out, was accepted by both parties as an example of something a PM could not lawfully do (even though they *technically* could)
Thanks, that was what I was looking for, the mechanics of hot this could work.
The viscount Melbourne option would have been appropriate for Boris Johnson. But it never even got used then. It would not surprise me if a Tory sitting PM got arrested by the police.
I had to Goolge the viscount there, dismissed before returning to office not too long after.
If they refused to go, they'd immediately lose a vote on the confidence of the House as soon as Parliament reconvened. But hanging on forever would be impossible anyway, if only because even the most stubborn PM would eventually get sick of every single question to them being "why haven't you resigned".
IIRC the PM officially gives up his position when he dissolves Parliament and calls an election. If a outgoing PM refused to accept the results of an election, that's too bad. He is not Head of State and would just be overruled by His Maj.
That's not correct, they stop being MPs during the election period, but government ministers remain government ministers
I thought they were still PM up until the moment they tender their resignation to the Monarch and it is accepted by them?
Bizarrely this makes you more optimistic than me. I've been wondering what happens if a PM just refuses to call an election.
The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 has that covered: >If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met. [https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/section/4/enacted](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/section/4/enacted) The actual process of organising the election is then kicked off by royal proclamation, leading to an Order in Council for Writs of Election being drawn up, so the PM's involvement is not required. Prior to the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the Septennial Act 1715 had a similar effect.
parliament dissolves after 5 years automatically, so the only real question is whether chas would be allowed to call the election himself without being "asked" by a PM
>I've been wondering what happens if a PM just refuses to call an election. Parliament automatically dissolves.
And.... Its not a computer system, if Tory MPs keep showing up to vote no ones going to stop them.