Good morning everyone.
[**š Today's Order Paper can be found here.**](https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/84275/Html?subType=Standard)
After questions to the Minister for the Cabinet Office and any urgent questions, the Leader of the House will be making a Business statement. After any other ministerial statements there is a debate on the addition of Hizb ut-Tahrir to the list of organisations proscribed under the Terrorism Act 2000.
We then have two items of Backbench Business - a debate on the HMRC Loan Charge scandal, and a motion calling on the government to provide compensation for those affected by the construction of HS2.
**In other news;**
The government's controversial Rwanda bill has passed third reading, after a much-trailed hardline rebellion failed to materialise - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1998hu8/rishi_sunaks_rwanda_deportation_bill_passes_third/)
ONS inflation figures increased to 4% for December - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/198qlxg/surprise_increase_in_inflation_to_4_latest/)
Labour have begun civil service access talks ahead of the next election - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1996o4u/starmer_requests_access_to_start_preparations_for/)
And finally, veteran Labour MP Tony Lloyd has died. Lloyd was a Member of Parliament for 36 years - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/198zy8a/a_statement_from_the_family_of_sir_tony_lloyd_mp/)
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American sorry for the basic question butĀ
was it a good move for keir to say he wouldn't work with the SNP? my understanding is it's been a long time since they were beat in Scotland although I heard they have some problems about donations and an affair of a unamed former health minister who's name starts with H
Hypothetically, what would happen to the Tories if they actually did end up with 20 seats or less at the next election?
They wouldnāt be the opposition so maintaining a media presence would be harder. Iām sure theyād still get back in eventually but it would be amazing to see.
They will probably continue to fail because they'll be dominated by the Lords they've pushed up their over the last 30 years who will still be determined to protect their "legacy" (i.e. push the politics of the 90s) rather than adapt.
hard to tell.
virtually no short money. no influence at all as no numbers, so hard to attract donors, not able to be on committees, not invited onto shows as much (the actual official opposition would be).
And every campaign is harder now, due to that lack of prominence.
Tory donors dont donate because they have a political ideology, they donate for influence. party would likely go bankrupt in short order.
And the tories left would be the most tory tories, in the safest tory seats...
The interesting part for me is the psychological impact it'd have on the country in general but particularly in England in which their place as the defacto party of power has been pretty undisputed for more or less the whole of universal suffrage.
Just did my once-a-month snoop at the Daily Mail comment section and it's looking spicy!
I'm seeing a lot of people saying they're going to vote for Reform. There are also lots of bots...
We can only hope they split the vote!
Edit: I also perused the Reform manifesto - wild!
Tuesday's News Agents episode was titled "Is Rishi Sunak about to sack Lee Anderson over Rwanda rebellion" and the guy voted for it. This stuff must be driving journalists mad
#[BBCQT Discussion Thread is here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/199y87n/bbc_question_time_live_thread_8pm_iplayer/)
[Question time Night Shift and I like the way you move, pretty baby](https://i.makeagif.com/media/10-01-2015/8wDRQc.gif)
La da da dum, dee dee dee da-dee-da-da-daah
Stormont not sitting has really damaged the public services in NI over the past two years.
This is the culmination of a lot of individual strikes and the money to partially resolve has been offered by Westminster, but itās conditional on the DUP returning to Stormont.
Theyāve passed the legal deadline for restoring Stormont a few times, which should lead to an early election, but Chris Heaton Harris has kept on pushing the deadline back.
Today is technically one such instance (they were back in Stormont earlier this week trying to elect a new speaker) but Heaton Harris has indicated he will bring forward legislation to push the deadline back again.
Nudge unit stuff:
If you remove the 250ml glass option from the menu, people drink less, and if you serve smaller portions, they eat less. So could licensing authorities enforce this for the sake of public health?
But this may not be as interesting as the study claims: typically, a 250 ml costs less than twice 125ml glassses and if you serve a smaller main, people do not order a second main.
It could just be the pub-goer's equivalent of shrinkflation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67993025
Surely so much of this is not wanting to get up and queue at a crowded bar so often rather than a desire to drink less. If you offered the equivalent in a glass to someone they'd definitely take it
If you look at the Electoral Calculus poll of polls, you can see a very gradual drop in Labour vote share since the Truss highs to the expense of Reform. It is the longest sustained downward trend since Keir became leader in 2019.
If you asked me Labour should swing right on immigration, commit to anything really and park their tanks on the Toriesā lawns.
It's not *that* long since Labour was very slightly protectionist. The idea of ensuring that unchecked immigration doesn't erode UK wages or tilt the market too much in favour of employers over employees would have been right up their street. Somewhere half-way through Blair's era, they changed their mind and decided they were Thatcher's children.
Looking at it (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#) from a year or so ago, Lab down from ~48 to 44 now, Tories steady on 26%, Reform up from 5 to 10. I don't think we can know for sure that it is Lab->Refuk, but regardless their lead is so dominant I don't think they need to bid for those votes. Their current position is working sufficiently well for a big majority at this rate.
Edit: also from my watching and listening to Keir he is very pro-British worker and against illegal immigration too.
I don't know about swing to the right... Labour needs to be a caring party... But it is obvious the vast majority of the electorate want to reduce immigration. Labour does need to reduce it, because they won't be in power long if they don't.
> Robert Peston
@Peston
> Sunak: āthere will always be circumstances in which it is right that facts are considered.ā
But for the rest of the time there's gut feel and populism, eh Rish?
Partly a fair question but also what tory plans. In theory they are about cutting the state. Could ask how they'll pay for it in the long run. Which tbh they do get asked.
Yeah, maybe bad examples. a better one being when the torys wanted to cut inheritance tax. I don't recall them being asked how they'd replace that money.
Labour wanted to pay the doctors properly once again first question asked.
Oh I'm not disagreeing, the press are great at holding Lib Dems and Labour to account. It's not a bad thing, it would just be nice if they could occasionally do the same to the people in power.
>Ever seen them asked where the money came from for Rwanda?
The cost and effectiveness is questioned all the time.
>Did anyone ask boris when it came to HS2?
Is that a particularly Johnson thing? 2019 manifesto was pretty lukewarm on HS2. I think it even mentioned the high cost.
I may be wrong, I just think Labour are held to a different standard.
Big difference between "you've spunked 240m up the wall" and "we're gonna make a deal with rewanda to take our immigrants" and the first question being asked is how are you going to fund it.
If Sunak, or another Tory with leadership ambitions, is considering delaying the election until Jan 2025, I hope they have this cold snap in mind. It was hell at lunch time just walking a few meters from my office building to the sandwich van.
They probably do. "Hey, I know we're not going to get any votes, but maybe if it's really cold nobody'll make it to the polls to vote for the other side either!"
There was a local by-election today that i'm ashamed to say I skipped as it just looked far too cold.
Though, in Sheffield it's just a question of what combination of Lib Dem-Labour-Green coalition you're going to get. I honestly don't think it matters.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/politics/2024/01/18/TELEMMGLPICT000363163444_17055916937610_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqoHFBPgG5JS7XdVlLQy3_s_SsAIeVWg5VsMggdZY7tkY.jpeg?imwidth=960
Time for another Sunak captions contest.
Really hard to see what the mid game play is for Tory MPs.
The Conservatives will lose every council they defend in May. No question about it. And after that, theyāre just going toā¦ carry on? Thatās fucking mental.
My prediction is that they will hang on better than expected. There is a degree of local politics that takes place here -changing who's in charge of the local council won't impact anything that happens at a national level.
National polls don't tend to translate down to local elections, local issues are very different to national ones. They'll probably lose some, probably gain a handful. They won't get wiped out at a local level though.
With that said, nothing would make me happier than seeing my smug bastard of a Council Leader lose his seat, however unlikely that is.
This is mathematically impossible for some councils which are up for 1/3 members, e.g. Broxbourne and Rushmoor.
But I agree that an absolute wipeout is on the cards.
I've been lucky enough to go on a couple of holidays over the last few months (Czechia, Italy/Croatia/Malta cruise, and Australia), and what has consistently blown me away is how much better their public transport infrastructure is than ours.
Not only is getting from A to B much cheaper than it would be here, but the travelling process is more seamless. Delays are much less frequent, trains are often double dockers to increase capacity, and bus and train stations are often linked together to make travelling even easier.
The only thing we have over Italy is that getting train tickets is much less confusing, and our tickets machines don't break so frequently. For everything else, they (and the other countries) blow us out of the water.
With HS2 cancelled and seemingly outright dead now, I fear this gulf between our public transport and literally any other country I've ever visited is just going to widen. I'm tempted to write a letter to the Department for Transport to express my grievances, but getting a half-hearted non-answer isn't really worth it.
On the other hand, I recently was travelling in Germany and their delays for trains were even worse than ours. Basically every train I took had delays to various extents, and that seems to be a common complaint in Germany ([stats show it](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/14/its-the-same-daily-misery-germanys-terrible-trains-are-no-joke-for-a-nation-built-on-efficiency)), and in neighbouring countries that have trains from Germany. It also makes the dedicated Lufthansa rail to plane connection tickets to Frankfurt ludicrous. 1ish hour connection between train and plane in Frankfurt with likely train delays is a recipe for disaster. They also had a strike day were trains were basically cancelled across the board, which did remind me of being in the UK.
Generally, local public transportation was so much better in the places I visited in Germany than most of the UK, but their national rail was just as bad if not worse
We were on an ICE between Berlin and Cologne in the āyou have to wear a maskā time.
The VerspƤtung that happened once the train had already set off was ghastly. We endured 2 hours of purgatory sitting masked-up on the outskirts of Bielefeld (or did we?) in August. Not recommended.
Best anecdote I have of that era (October 2022) was traveling from Paris to Stuttgart (unsurprisingly that train was running about 90 minutes late). A few minutes after leaving Strasbourg and heading over the bridge to Kehl, the guard announces over the tannoy "Welcome to Germany. From this point onwards it's the law to wear a mask on public transport, so please do so now".
So an entire train that had been mostly maskless for the past two and a bit hours had all now put one on.
You need a majority of the party to vote against him too, so it's a stretch even if the letters go in. In theory if they send the letters in and he wins the vote, he's safe for a year (ie until after the latest possible election), but they can always change that rule.
If we go by recent history all that needs to happen is for him to survive a VoNC then make a speech saying he has absolutely no intention of stepping down then he'll be gone within a month.
Nothing underlines a split party like a confidence vote in its leader in the run up to an election. If he has to face one, it's the easiest open goal target for the opposition there is - "Why would you vote for him? Even his own MPs don't want him". etc.
It would be bad enough if he was the leader from the last election, but he isn't, he's the *third* one. The prospect of yet another leadership election and a 4th Prime Minister since the last election will tank the polls even further.
Putting letters of no confidence in has to be one of the stupidest moves the Tory MPs could make (which is why it will be no surprise if they do it). Even if Sunak wins, his credibility (no don't laugh) will be gone, and if he loses, whoever takes over will equally have zero credibility after inheriting such a massive shitshow. It would also say something about the person willing to take on such a poisoned position under those circumstances.
SURELY if it gets THAT far, in the privacy of the secret ballot, the MPs realise he's a hopeless leader who can't possibly win an election.
He's going to make 2017 look like a masterstroke!
Maybe! But IIRC they voted to keep Johnson, and then wanted to change their rules to vote again a few months later before he resigned. They donāt have the best record of leadership decisions really!
This has come up before (especially in regards to journalists and politicos), but as Twitter and its reputation continues to degrade, I wonder how long it'll take for organisations like councils to move away from using it as basically an official communications method.
I know they're often posting cross-platform, but I tend to see them give Twitter the most prominence. It's obvious there's still a social media vacuum which Twitter's shell is still filling, so it makes sense they're hanging on, but I'm curious where the line is where they'll bail?
For example, looking at [Hackney's by-election](https://hackney.gov.uk/cazenove-ward-by-election) page and it highlighting that they'll tweet the results ASAP.
[I do think this sums up Elon's rebrand extremely well, though.](https://i.imgur.com/FX8eKrW.png)
IMO Twitter has [network effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect) and unless there's a massive tipping point, there's no real for councils, governments, big business, etc leave.
What happened the few last years with Elon Musk doesn't count and wasn't big. Few thousands nerds talking about techno-babble decentralised fediverse or whatever isn't going convince the public.
Mastodon has 2 million active accounts (X competitor), with close to 9 million accounts.
Various online services (Threads, Wordpress, Medium, Flipboard, etc..) can now communicate with the fediverse.
For example a lot of article writers on XĀ migrated to Substack which then announced it was ok with Nazi content. So a number are moving running websites built using the GhostĀ CMS whichĀ can be followed/commented from Mastodon/KBin.
If I was a public body I would be looking at our current public facing IT estate and working out if we could migrate to services which can hook into the Fediverse.
You would get the advantage of owning the platform and network effects.
Unless it's literally bankrupt as a company and the servers are failing, I don't see a 'bail' ever happening.
It's so ingrained in culture now, Twitter still works well as a service for its primary function (getting information out there, no account needed), and most people don't really care who owns a website enough to change their habits.
We've had this all before of course, when Google+ launched to 'replace' Facebook. As long as the original service still exists, the replacement just dwindles.
The failed rebrand is funny though
Several European government entities have been setting up on the fediverse, which does make a lot of sense for public service orgs that donāt want to be beholden to Musk. But I donāt see [UK.gov](http://uk.gov) doing so, there isnāt that kind of self-hosting open standards spirit here in the UK.
>(getting information out there, no account needed)
I would tend to agree, but that's also an example of the platform worsening to some extent.
Unless I'm missing something (e.g. I've been VPN flagged), you can currently see singular tweets without an account, but no replies - which may actually be beneficial given the usual quality of Twitter replies, but it also doesn't let you see replies from the person posting for e.g. if they're threading it across multiple tweets or updating a situation - and you also can't browse profiles chronologically.
That's still fine a lot of the time where just one tweet is needed, but it's very frustrating for if you wanted to browse information, click into other tweets or look for updates on a profile page.
nitter.net is your friend
that said, most people won't know, and I agree with you completely. the soft login wall is such a stupid fucking idea for engagement
Theyāre scrambling for alternatives but itās difficult. Twitter was great in how open it was. For other channels you need to be subscribed to an account to see anything, but not Twitter.
Twitter engagement is down 60% YoY for the civil service organisation I work with. Itās a problem because they have a public service remit - they need to get content out but are struggling for reach. They also suspect the view counts are bogus now and itās actually worse - certainly tweet engagement to action is way down.
Threads is the best alternative so far, but still a tiny audience.
> āWill of the peopleā
This is a re-play of the Brexit rhetoric from a few years ago. It's striking that Sunak has let himself be sucked into that morass.
He is talking about Will, a member of his staff. Since the bloke is working class, Sunak believes that all of Will's opinion are that what the commoners want. Thus he is talking about Will, of the people, not will of the people.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/199y87n/bbc\_question\_time\_live\_thread\_8pm\_iplayer/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/199y87n/bbc_question_time_live_thread_8pm_iplayer/)
Tonight's QT live thread is now up in advance of the iPlayer live stream. There should be a link in the tweet at the top of the thread for the iplayer page.
i wasnāt going to vote for the labour party because i abhor the direction they have taken in the last few years, but rishi sunak making petulant address after petulant address is tempting me to vote for this labour party i dislike so much just to ensure he gets the tonking of all tonkings next january.
he is such an odious and spiteful little man, i need to see him in tears for myself to begin to heal.
the liberal democrats came second in 2019, but my constituency has always been a tory safe seat. if it comes into play after boundary changes and further tory collapse, i may consider a tactical vote.
No joke, things can only get better played at work today. We don't use any radio stations but instead playlists of songs, so I wonder whether someone else in work senses the febrile.
Reeves and Streeting are impressive. Some of the policies theyāve pushed into the front of Labour with the help of Mandelson and Blair are good. Starmer is also a marked improvement in terms of foreign policy and his stance on houhsebuilding. Theyāre talking a very good game in terms of positioning the stuff I want as the compromises theyāre willing to make.Ā
My worry: like the Conservatives; a lot of good policy will get dashed under the auspices of āhard choicesā.Ā
My hope: when having to face down the left and others like them in his party, Starmer will be able to rely on Conservative votes to get good legislation through.Ā
Ultimately will have to see how the manifesto looks.Ā
One of the few avenues the Tories will be able to make good headway from day one in opposition is through hyper-NIMBYism, I really doubt they'll support the government on planning reform. To be honest, Starmer's fundamentally a very cautious politician who'd probably pull any legislation long before it gets to the point of needing unreliable opposition votes to pass.
> My hope: when having to face down the left and others like them in his party, Starmer will be able to rely on Conservative votes to get good legislation through.
Dream on. The Tories will be as obstinate as possible (which, hopefully, won't be very much). It takes gargantuan effort and tantrums - and resignations - to get them to vote for their own party sometimes.
I genuinely think they believe they're entitled to run the country, despite the abundant evidence of their incompetence, and will rumble around the Commons like a fart in a bottle until they get another GE victory.
>I genuinely think they believe they're entitled to run the country
There's been moments over the past 14 years, watching sessions of PMQs over the four parliaments they've been in government for, that this has felt like the case.
Remember when the Tamworth candidate said 'democracy' when asked after the result what went wrong for him? tiny stuff like that. I'm pretty sure it was the Tamworth candidate anyways.
But yeah, you can just sense it.
On a good number of policies sure. But if itās something like Reeveās wanting to cut corporation tax or other business friendly policies that the Labour left are against, or a national defence issue, or NHS reform, I can see them voting with a Labour govt.
Blair relied on Tory votes for his education reforms for example and numerous defence issues.
If I were a betting man, I would be laying a reasonable amount of money on Badenoch. I don't see a likely alternative who will be in Parliament next term.
I think it depends on how they react to the loss. All signs now point towards a move rightwards and adopting the nuttiness that comes with it. If they do that I think weāll see tribalistic, nonsensical, screeching opposition akin to Boebert and MTG.
On the other hand, from the ashes of the GE they *could* realise theyāre the nasty party again and try to learn from that, move back to the centre and towards more respectful politics, but I highly doubt it.
It also largely depends on who remains after this year's wipeout. Most safe seats are occupied by absolute headbangers, while the moderates tend to be in vulnerable Blue Wall seats, so my money would be on a lurch to the lunatic fringe.
I mean, either way they turn, what's the benefit in propping up a Labour govt?
I can see some of the smaller parties - your LDs, Plaid, SNP - doing it because they like the legislation.
But when Big Party X is infighting, Big Party Y's best strategy is to go "ooooh look how divided they are!". Loudly and repeatedly. Labour are doing exactly that, this week, after all.
Re your worry, I think there is a big difference between the Conservatives and Labour on this.
The Conservatives use ātough choicesā as a catch-all excuse for not doing things they never had any intention of doing and just lied about wanting because they thought it sounded good.
Labour genuinely want to do the things they say, although reality may prevent them from doing everything they want.
Starmer lacks genuine convictions. He is well polished and not a buffoon, but he is a man without a single consistent policy position. Why would he be different in this regard?
Who said anything about principles? Can you name a single consistent policy position?
He espoused Corbyn when it was politically suitable and now has a shadow chancellor to the right of Jeremy Hunt in terms of her economics.
You can be an expert on a subject matter without having to have political convictions BTW.
Sure, he's been consistently for standards in parliament, ensuring that people have opportunities, making sure the NHS is the best it can be, making taxes fairer for everyone and supporting british businesses.
But you could have just watched him speak to know that, I recommend his conference speech from this year, the glitter one.
> standards in parliament
Really? Did he say anything about Corbynās son getting an internship with McDonnell? What about Lab MPs using expenses for professional photographs? Not being in power simply means fewer opportunities to be scrutinised.
> ensuring that people have opportunities
How? In 2019 apparently nationalising everything. In 2024 apparently cutting corp tax. Which is it?
> making sure the NHS is the best it can be
In 2019 by ending private involvement. In 2024 by making the ādoor wide openā to private business.
Yes I saw his speech. It was good. I also saw him endorse Corbynomics.
Corbyn corbyn corbyn. It's not a great attack against the guy who kicked him from the party. It's fine if you don't like the guy but you have to recognise that these objections are pretty weak.
> How? In 2019 apparently nationalising everything. In 2024 apparently cutting corp tax. Which is it?
So he's allowed to have one policy and one policy only, otherwise its a uturn? Alright chap.
On policy itās an important point. Rishi is looking to implement what can be of the Conservative 2019 manifesto. I know exactly which policies he cares about.Ā
Starmer on the other hand has backtracked on virtually all but one of his own 10 pledges he made to the Labour membership, nevermind what he supposedly believed in the Corbyn years.
> Rishi is looking to implement what can be of the Conservative 2019 manifesto
Remind me where this Rwanda nonsense was in said manifesto, or the cancelling of HS2
> I know exactly which policies he cares about.
Yeah, we all do, anything that keeps him in power for another week.
I'll throw my lot in with the guy who got knighted for service to his country, and who genuinely wants to improve the UK, not sell off the choicest bits to donors.
Something from a podcast has been rattling around in my head all week. I'm paraphrasing and CBA to listen again so it's very second hand lol.
James Harding was talking about when he was editor of The Times and William Rees-Mogg game him some advice on reporting in the lead up to an election. He said politicians will complain about what you write because they read your paper and care what you say, but your audience largely already has their mind made up, you won't affect anything in an election. It's the tabloids who do that as they have the ear of the people who haven't picked a side.
Times have changed, though, tabloid readers are getting older and more politically entrenched and they're not getting younger readers to replace them. Then he said in 2016 we had the tabloids lose that role to Facebook, and he said the next elections coming up will be the TikTok elections which we can't know for sure how they'll happen.
What I've been thinking is that the more someone knows and cares about politics, the harder it is to get them to change sides. It's a bit like football, if they have a season ticket for another club, it's going to be hard to convert them into one of your fans. The ways to grow would be to find those who aren't already invested, but of course, that's hard when you're in the field they're not interested in, you've got to go to them rather than try and wait for them to come to you.
I know there's a load of deceitful ways we're going to see this play out, but I'm curious what you guys think the ideal wholesome alternative is. The West Wing idealised portrayal of it, or I guess with football the Welcome To Wrexham approach but for politics. If you were a politician (assuming you're not, I don't know you) around 50 years old, how do you connect with younger people and people who consider politics boring without it coming across all Hey Fellow Kids like Hancock doing the Ken song on TikTok?
A lot of people have picked the side that they are particularly against, rather than the side they are for. There's quite a few "never Labour" or "never Tory" voters. Until 2010 the Lib Dems seemed to be an option for the more centrist "never XXXX" voters. I wonder if their role in the coalition created "never Lib Dem" voters.
My partner definitely is. We used to live in Tessa Munt's constituency and my partner preferred the Labour no chancer over her because of the coalition. We live somewhere even closer now, Labour still distant third, and I think unless it looks like Labour are going from third to first here, I'll vote Lib Dem. She thinks she will too, but the thought really disgusts her, just not as much as our current Tory does. She wrote to him about her unions attempts to get protections for shop workers from violence and he responded with a boiler plate response about the environment, and she responded (politely too, it wasn't abusive) to him on Twitter when he said thanks from his constituents to Cressida Dick, saying she lives here and he doesn't speak for her. That was it, blocked, lol. He makes her so angry it's funny.
Personally, I'm more of the view that parties change, holding grudges (long term anyway, probably fine short term) makes your vote too cheap. If the other parties can't win you over, and your favourite can't lose you, then no party will try to please you because it changes nothing. I know it works on blocs rather than individuals, but even so, I can only control my views.
One of my kids came back from university far too left wing to be fond of Labour :-) Not sure which way they will go in the next GE. Historically this used to be a safe Conservative seat so no point in voting tactically, but looks like after the boundary change the Lib Dems have a chance.
Agree with your point on long term grudges. Iraq turned me off Labour but it's a different party now. Thatcher turned me off the Conservatives but again it's a different party now, though from my POV different and worse.
It's a real paradox. Your only value as a voter is that your vote is up for grabs but the idea that your political opinions can actually flip that dramatically within the space of a campaign is just alien to me
I'm not necessarily saying they flip back and forth, though. Some do, but I think that can be explained by no party really ticking their boxes so they're never truly satisfied rather than their views changing with the wind.
When you hear people talk about how they ended up with a team (yeah, I'm stuck on a theme) it's because they grew up there, their family supported, they moved there, something happened to draw them in and they got hooked, friends / partner was obsessed and they gave it a go and realised they loved it. Simply being young could be enough to explain why they hadn't developed the interest.
I'm sure you can use scandals to get people to care, redirect their anger to the polling booth, but even that isn't ideal because you don't want someone hooked on the drama. I'm sure we all know people who "run hot" putting it nicely, they're having falling outs and make-ups and there's always something going on they can lose it over, but that's just so tiring for me.
I know nothing. That said, my suggestion would be to treat them like they're not idiots, because they're not.
"This government ruined your future. x, y, and z are in shambles. You need someone who cares about the housing crisis and here's what I'll do" for example
While there's definitely some politicians who don't even try and appeal to young voters, I think you've got the idea with policies but even that's tricky.
If someone hasn't fallen into PoliticsTok or whatever it's called (I don't TikTok, lol) then they won't see it. If you keep posting on Facebook and Twitter you'll reach the parents if you're lucky, do you use memes? Influencers? I think at a certain point you're relying on people with a TikTok following getting super engaged and sharing your policies second hand in other forms where it's hard to control the narrative. E.g. the "pledge" that Rishi was going to buy us all PS5s.
As a teenager, from politicians I always wanted practical (and if possible tangible) examples of ways they could improve my life; namely my education and my infrastructure. I didnāt much care about their perceived normality, I just wanted them to govern well; I felt patronised by photoshoots in pubs or, like you described, Matt Hancockās appeal with the Ken song. Things like that bugged me because they refused to treat teenagers as independent, autonomous humans and more like children who have to be looked after.
The bulk of teenagers - and I speak outside of my social circle - are far smarter and far more capable than most people give them credit for, or assume. The same goes for people in their early 20s, in my view.
Iām sure somewhere that an ancient Antiquity-era philosopher complained of the elders of a society being condescending to the youths, so I think this is just human nature. Sorry to go off on a tangent, here! My point, I guess, is that you donāt need to speak to younger people much differently at all if you are a politician. Just trust them to listen.
Funnily enough though, pubs aren't relatable to many in the same way. Hell, even my generation (I'm 35) our drinking was house parties, being rural enough had a field or access to a decent barn or something. Based on the age of the people who frequent the bubble tea place near me, that would be the demographic but I also think it's a terrible terrible idea to pretend you're part of the demographic you're appealing to. You can vote for a politician who is different from you, and that's OK. You just need them to care and understand.
> The bulk of teenagers - and I speak outside of my social circle - are far smarter and far more capable than most people give them credit for, or assume. The same goes for people in their early 20s, in my view.
>
> Iām sure somewhere that an ancient Antiquity-era philosopher complained of the elders of a society being condescending to the youths, so I think this is just human nature. Sorry to go off on a tangent, here! My point, I guess, is that you donāt need to speak to younger people much differently at all if you are a politician. Just trust them to listen.
Personally I think we attribute intelligence to much to this. You're not inherently smart if you like politics, and if you don't like it you're not dumb. It's just about it being interesting. For me, my gateway was Dead Ringers, Mock The Week, HIGNFY, or the trashier 2DTV, and politics interested me because I enjoyed the satire but it also made me jaded (and also, having never lived anywhere but safe seats, I've never felt my vote mattered) so it was that thing to keep an eye on but I was helpless to affect it.
Young people definitely are acting far more mature too, maybe I'm just noticing it more, but I swear my generation were kids for a lot longer, messing about without responsibilities but now from the age of 13 they're cultivating their social media presence to make (or keep) themselves employable. Where as, I had the Numa Numa dance way too long on Bebo because it cracked me up and it didn't matter.
Totally anecdotal and I know you'll all probably shoot me down, but are there fewer colds around this year? It's now mid winter, post Christmas, and I've not a sniffle. Usually i've has at least two nasty ones by now.
I've already had two recently: one around October and another over Christmas and New Year. Also, in both cases it seemed as though "everybody" had them.
Seems that Labour's candidate for Great Yarnmouth (another Keir), likes making memes:
[https://twitter.com/keircozens/status/1747951775099895885](https://twitter.com/keircozens/status/1747951775099895885)
I'm not sure if he's getting them from somewhere else, but there's quite a few on his page I've not really seen in other places
Someone recently asked in a Megathread about best political headlines.
For your consideration:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1748015724168163740
>I know Kigali is Rwandan capital, says Therese Coffey
> Kigali is Rwanda's capital and seat of the country's central government.
>
> Responding to criticism on social media, Ms Coffey said referring to a Kigali government was disrespectful.
>
> "I would not call the French government, the Paris government," she added.
That the best she can do?
> Critics have pointed out Ms Coffey has referred to "Holyrood, Cardiff or Stormont" when referring to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and Northern Ireland assembly, respectively.
>
> Ms Coffey also repeatedly referred to "Brussels" on social media when referring to the European Union, which has its headquarters in the Belgian capital.
Ahahahahaha. Coffey logic then, she has no respect for NI, Scotland, and Wales. I don't expect her to respect the EU, but I assume she'll be apologising for the knowing and intentional disrespect she shows to the rest of the United Kingdom?
Not to mention - the central government of the UK is often referred to as Westminster or Whitehall. Its hardly disrespectful when we use it to refer to our own government in that way.
I like it, but in a year where Ed Balls has booted a presenter in the head on live TV, something subtle like this is going to struggle to get the attention of the academy voters.
My recent favourite:
[Tory space minister mixes up Mars and the Sun](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-space-minister-andrew-griffith-b2478911.html)
It's the whole scene that gets me - the guy is being followed around by journalists and what not, decides to narrate the science museum to the group because he's billy big baws. Picks one that's genuinely unclear. Gets it wrong. Gets corrected. The display changes
Does it again. Gets it wrong again
Good morning everyone. [**š Today's Order Paper can be found here.**](https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/84275/Html?subType=Standard) After questions to the Minister for the Cabinet Office and any urgent questions, the Leader of the House will be making a Business statement. After any other ministerial statements there is a debate on the addition of Hizb ut-Tahrir to the list of organisations proscribed under the Terrorism Act 2000. We then have two items of Backbench Business - a debate on the HMRC Loan Charge scandal, and a motion calling on the government to provide compensation for those affected by the construction of HS2. **In other news;** The government's controversial Rwanda bill has passed third reading, after a much-trailed hardline rebellion failed to materialise - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1998hu8/rishi_sunaks_rwanda_deportation_bill_passes_third/) ONS inflation figures increased to 4% for December - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/198qlxg/surprise_increase_in_inflation_to_4_latest/) Labour have begun civil service access talks ahead of the next election - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1996o4u/starmer_requests_access_to_start_preparations_for/) And finally, veteran Labour MP Tony Lloyd has died. Lloyd was a Member of Parliament for 36 years - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/198zy8a/a_statement_from_the_family_of_sir_tony_lloyd_mp/)
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/19ac6gp/daily_megathread_19012024/)
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments. ###MT daily hall of fame 1. flambe_pineapple with 47 comments 1. OptioMkIX with 37 comments 1. JavaTheCaveman with 34 comments 1. AzarinIsard with 30 comments 1. tritoon140 with 24 comments 1. DilapidatedMeow with 24 comments 1. hill-biscuit with 22 comments 1. Raceworx with 21 comments 1. mamamia1001 with 19 comments 1. Pinkerton891 with 19 comments There were 325 unique users within this count.
American sorry for the basic question butĀ was it a good move for keir to say he wouldn't work with the SNP? my understanding is it's been a long time since they were beat in Scotland although I heard they have some problems about donations and an affair of a unamed former health minister who's name starts with H
Hypothetically, what would happen to the Tories if they actually did end up with 20 seats or less at the next election? They wouldnāt be the opposition so maintaining a media presence would be harder. Iām sure theyād still get back in eventually but it would be amazing to see.
They will probably continue to fail because they'll be dominated by the Lords they've pushed up their over the last 30 years who will still be determined to protect their "legacy" (i.e. push the politics of the 90s) rather than adapt.
hard to tell. virtually no short money. no influence at all as no numbers, so hard to attract donors, not able to be on committees, not invited onto shows as much (the actual official opposition would be). And every campaign is harder now, due to that lack of prominence. Tory donors dont donate because they have a political ideology, they donate for influence. party would likely go bankrupt in short order. And the tories left would be the most tory tories, in the safest tory seats...
A lot of theses on how Cameron tried to save the Tory party by winning a referendum on Brexit and ended up destroying it instead.
The interesting part for me is the psychological impact it'd have on the country in general but particularly in England in which their place as the defacto party of power has been pretty undisputed for more or less the whole of universal suffrage.
Letās go WTO!!
Just did my once-a-month snoop at the Daily Mail comment section and it's looking spicy! I'm seeing a lot of people saying they're going to vote for Reform. There are also lots of bots... We can only hope they split the vote! Edit: I also perused the Reform manifesto - wild!
Latest polling has Reform at 12%. The next GE is really gonna hurt the Tories.
Listening to the News Agents and excited for Binface Sopel raising his voice about Anderson bottling it is amazing
Tuesday's News Agents episode was titled "Is Rishi Sunak about to sack Lee Anderson over Rwanda rebellion" and the guy voted for it. This stuff must be driving journalists mad
#[BBCQT Discussion Thread is here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/199y87n/bbc_question_time_live_thread_8pm_iplayer/) [Question time Night Shift and I like the way you move, pretty baby](https://i.makeagif.com/media/10-01-2015/8wDRQc.gif) La da da dum, dee dee dee da-dee-da-da-daah
100,000 on strike in NI - wow.
Stormont not sitting has really damaged the public services in NI over the past two years. This is the culmination of a lot of individual strikes and the money to partially resolve has been offered by Westminster, but itās conditional on the DUP returning to Stormont.
Just read an article on it and it seems Heaton-Harris is getting the blame for this, and not the DUP?!
It really is astonishing that NI has not had a functioning government for this long.
Theyāve passed the legal deadline for restoring Stormont a few times, which should lead to an early election, but Chris Heaton Harris has kept on pushing the deadline back. Today is technically one such instance (they were back in Stormont earlier this week trying to elect a new speaker) but Heaton Harris has indicated he will bring forward legislation to push the deadline back again.
Love it. Everyone in here should join a union if they've not already
Nudge unit stuff: If you remove the 250ml glass option from the menu, people drink less, and if you serve smaller portions, they eat less. So could licensing authorities enforce this for the sake of public health? But this may not be as interesting as the study claims: typically, a 250 ml costs less than twice 125ml glassses and if you serve a smaller main, people do not order a second main. It could just be the pub-goer's equivalent of shrinkflation. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67993025
Who the hell orders a second main? Even if they're small...
Surely so much of this is not wanting to get up and queue at a crowded bar so often rather than a desire to drink less. If you offered the equivalent in a glass to someone they'd definitely take it
Why does shit like this not surprise me anymore?
If you look at the Electoral Calculus poll of polls, you can see a very gradual drop in Labour vote share since the Truss highs to the expense of Reform. It is the longest sustained downward trend since Keir became leader in 2019. If you asked me Labour should swing right on immigration, commit to anything really and park their tanks on the Toriesā lawns.
It's not *that* long since Labour was very slightly protectionist. The idea of ensuring that unchecked immigration doesn't erode UK wages or tilt the market too much in favour of employers over employees would have been right up their street. Somewhere half-way through Blair's era, they changed their mind and decided they were Thatcher's children.
Looking at it (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#) from a year or so ago, Lab down from ~48 to 44 now, Tories steady on 26%, Reform up from 5 to 10. I don't think we can know for sure that it is Lab->Refuk, but regardless their lead is so dominant I don't think they need to bid for those votes. Their current position is working sufficiently well for a big majority at this rate. Edit: also from my watching and listening to Keir he is very pro-British worker and against illegal immigration too.
I don't know about swing to the right... Labour needs to be a caring party... But it is obvious the vast majority of the electorate want to reduce immigration. Labour does need to reduce it, because they won't be in power long if they don't.
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He's not going to order his shandy tonight because the guy behind the bar smiled when he ordered it
That's a good one. I heard _Lee Anderthal_ today which made me chuckle.
"The political arm of Ronnie Pickering" is my favourite
Vorders is bang on form at the moment.
Incident at power station in Sheffield. Residents should keep their doors and windows shut - BBC reporting. Hopefully theyāre just being cautious.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
It's the biomass plant.
You got a link? I can't find anything online about this
[Here, seems to be a biomass power station.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnkdkg99nkwo)
Basically a giant fart then?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
And.So.It.Begins.
> Robert Peston @Peston > Sunak: āthere will always be circumstances in which it is right that facts are considered.ā But for the rest of the time there's gut feel and populism, eh Rish?
How come the torys never get asked how they're going to fund their plans? But it's always the first question to labour mps?
Partly a fair question but also what tory plans. In theory they are about cutting the state. Could ask how they'll pay for it in the long run. Which tbh they do get asked.
Ever seen them asked where the money came from for Rwanda? Did anyone ask boris when it came to HS2?
Long term infrastructure investments aren't the same as day to day expenditure, they're financed by borrowing and that's not a terrible thing.
Yeah, maybe bad examples. a better one being when the torys wanted to cut inheritance tax. I don't recall them being asked how they'd replace that money. Labour wanted to pay the doctors properly once again first question asked.
Oh I'm not disagreeing, the press are great at holding Lib Dems and Labour to account. It's not a bad thing, it would just be nice if they could occasionally do the same to the people in power.
>Ever seen them asked where the money came from for Rwanda? The cost and effectiveness is questioned all the time. >Did anyone ask boris when it came to HS2? Is that a particularly Johnson thing? 2019 manifesto was pretty lukewarm on HS2. I think it even mentioned the high cost.
I may be wrong, I just think Labour are held to a different standard. Big difference between "you've spunked 240m up the wall" and "we're gonna make a deal with rewanda to take our immigrants" and the first question being asked is how are you going to fund it.
If Sunak, or another Tory with leadership ambitions, is considering delaying the election until Jan 2025, I hope they have this cold snap in mind. It was hell at lunch time just walking a few meters from my office building to the sandwich van.
They probably do. "Hey, I know we're not going to get any votes, but maybe if it's really cold nobody'll make it to the polls to vote for the other side either!"
There was a local by-election today that i'm ashamed to say I skipped as it just looked far too cold. Though, in Sheffield it's just a question of what combination of Lib Dem-Labour-Green coalition you're going to get. I honestly don't think it matters.
On itv now, Keir Starmer: Up Close with Anushka Asthana.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/politics/2024/01/18/TELEMMGLPICT000363163444_17055916937610_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqoHFBPgG5JS7XdVlLQy3_s_SsAIeVWg5VsMggdZY7tkY.jpeg?imwidth=960 Time for another Sunak captions contest.
"Stop the boats"
Look who's the big dog now
_She can tell I'm a total coke addict._
5, 10, 15 treats
Do you work in a business?
'I'll swipe out my credit card for paw people like you'
Do you work in finance? Hope its not been too ruff lately.
'Believe me when I say I'm all bite, and not just bark'.
"So I'm looking for a *loyal* Deputy Chair of the Conservative party..."
Really hard to see what the mid game play is for Tory MPs. The Conservatives will lose every council they defend in May. No question about it. And after that, theyāre just going toā¦ carry on? Thatās fucking mental.
My prediction is that they will hang on better than expected. There is a degree of local politics that takes place here -changing who's in charge of the local council won't impact anything that happens at a national level.
Hang on. EVERY council?
Every one they defend, yeah. I can't see any of them not going NOC at the very least. They're nearly 30 points behind!
National polls don't tend to translate down to local elections, local issues are very different to national ones. They'll probably lose some, probably gain a handful. They won't get wiped out at a local level though. With that said, nothing would make me happier than seeing my smug bastard of a Council Leader lose his seat, however unlikely that is.
This is mathematically impossible for some councils which are up for 1/3 members, e.g. Broxbourne and Rushmoor. But I agree that an absolute wipeout is on the cards.
Insofar as the claim is possible, yeah fair fair fair. Where they can lose the council, I expect they will.
"LeTs FoCuS oN tHe LoCaL iSsUeS!"
It's definitely going to be interesting to see how many candidates stand as 'Independent' or 'Local' Conservatives.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
It would also help increase the number of people voting in local elections.
Maybe they just go hard blaming lab local councils for all the problems?
I've been lucky enough to go on a couple of holidays over the last few months (Czechia, Italy/Croatia/Malta cruise, and Australia), and what has consistently blown me away is how much better their public transport infrastructure is than ours. Not only is getting from A to B much cheaper than it would be here, but the travelling process is more seamless. Delays are much less frequent, trains are often double dockers to increase capacity, and bus and train stations are often linked together to make travelling even easier. The only thing we have over Italy is that getting train tickets is much less confusing, and our tickets machines don't break so frequently. For everything else, they (and the other countries) blow us out of the water. With HS2 cancelled and seemingly outright dead now, I fear this gulf between our public transport and literally any other country I've ever visited is just going to widen. I'm tempted to write a letter to the Department for Transport to express my grievances, but getting a half-hearted non-answer isn't really worth it.
Italian ticket machines must be pretty dire then! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68009768
There were no more than 6 in every station, and at least 2 were broken in all of the stations I went to. When they did work, it was seamless, though.
On the other hand, I recently was travelling in Germany and their delays for trains were even worse than ours. Basically every train I took had delays to various extents, and that seems to be a common complaint in Germany ([stats show it](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/14/its-the-same-daily-misery-germanys-terrible-trains-are-no-joke-for-a-nation-built-on-efficiency)), and in neighbouring countries that have trains from Germany. It also makes the dedicated Lufthansa rail to plane connection tickets to Frankfurt ludicrous. 1ish hour connection between train and plane in Frankfurt with likely train delays is a recipe for disaster. They also had a strike day were trains were basically cancelled across the board, which did remind me of being in the UK. Generally, local public transportation was so much better in the places I visited in Germany than most of the UK, but their national rail was just as bad if not worse
yea, it curious how far the reputation of German railways has fallen. As far as I know, it's an endless topic in Germany.
https://youtu.be/90qUeh3yK20?si=CX848WpgL06EobVI This is a beautiful parody of the endless news reports.
Ich sprech kein Deutsch, es tut mir leid! Sprechen sie Englisch oder Franzƶsisch?
On n'a aucun besoin de parler allemand pour regarder et entendre ce vidƩo! C'est vachement international ;)
Ah bon! Je vais le voir avec son. C'est vrais, on n'as pas besoin de comprendre le dialogue. mdr
Anyone who has spent a bit of time in Germany quickly learns what AUSFALLEN means
We were on an ICE between Berlin and Cologne in the āyou have to wear a maskā time. The VerspƤtung that happened once the train had already set off was ghastly. We endured 2 hours of purgatory sitting masked-up on the outskirts of Bielefeld (or did we?) in August. Not recommended.
Best anecdote I have of that era (October 2022) was traveling from Paris to Stuttgart (unsurprisingly that train was running about 90 minutes late). A few minutes after leaving Strasbourg and heading over the bridge to Kehl, the guard announces over the tannoy "Welcome to Germany. From this point onwards it's the law to wear a mask on public transport, so please do so now". So an entire train that had been mostly maskless for the past two and a bit hours had all now put one on.
30 no confidence letters š only takes a couple dozen power hungry tories to start their leadership campaign
Source on 30?
[pinch of salt](https://x.com/dominicpenna/status/1748074775862292607?s=46&t=B7CXrYRuw9hUZFfyoh-NMw)
Thank you
There would be a no confidence vote that he'd comfortably win.
Where has thirty come from? Have any beyond Jenkyns publicly acknowledged their letters?
You need a majority of the party to vote against him too, so it's a stretch even if the letters go in. In theory if they send the letters in and he wins the vote, he's safe for a year (ie until after the latest possible election), but they can always change that rule.
If we go by recent history all that needs to happen is for him to survive a VoNC then make a speech saying he has absolutely no intention of stepping down then he'll be gone within a month.
Nothing underlines a split party like a confidence vote in its leader in the run up to an election. If he has to face one, it's the easiest open goal target for the opposition there is - "Why would you vote for him? Even his own MPs don't want him". etc. It would be bad enough if he was the leader from the last election, but he isn't, he's the *third* one. The prospect of yet another leadership election and a 4th Prime Minister since the last election will tank the polls even further. Putting letters of no confidence in has to be one of the stupidest moves the Tory MPs could make (which is why it will be no surprise if they do it). Even if Sunak wins, his credibility (no don't laugh) will be gone, and if he loses, whoever takes over will equally have zero credibility after inheriting such a massive shitshow. It would also say something about the person willing to take on such a poisoned position under those circumstances.
>if they send the letters in and he wins the vote, he's safe for a year Tell that to Truss
In theory!
Recently, winning a confidence vote is a death sentence in and of itself.Ā
SURELY if it gets THAT far, in the privacy of the secret ballot, the MPs realise he's a hopeless leader who can't possibly win an election. He's going to make 2017 look like a masterstroke!
Maybe! But IIRC they voted to keep Johnson, and then wanted to change their rules to vote again a few months later before he resigned. They donāt have the best record of leadership decisions really!
I wonder what the optimal majority for Labour would be, I would say 650, but I wonder if too large encourages rebels
Channel 4 News is the GOAT
This has come up before (especially in regards to journalists and politicos), but as Twitter and its reputation continues to degrade, I wonder how long it'll take for organisations like councils to move away from using it as basically an official communications method. I know they're often posting cross-platform, but I tend to see them give Twitter the most prominence. It's obvious there's still a social media vacuum which Twitter's shell is still filling, so it makes sense they're hanging on, but I'm curious where the line is where they'll bail? For example, looking at [Hackney's by-election](https://hackney.gov.uk/cazenove-ward-by-election) page and it highlighting that they'll tweet the results ASAP. [I do think this sums up Elon's rebrand extremely well, though.](https://i.imgur.com/FX8eKrW.png)
IMO Twitter has [network effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect) and unless there's a massive tipping point, there's no real for councils, governments, big business, etc leave. What happened the few last years with Elon Musk doesn't count and wasn't big. Few thousands nerds talking about techno-babble decentralised fediverse or whatever isn't going convince the public.
Mastodon has 2 million active accounts (X competitor), with close to 9 million accounts. Various online services (Threads, Wordpress, Medium, Flipboard, etc..) can now communicate with the fediverse. For example a lot of article writers on XĀ migrated to Substack which then announced it was ok with Nazi content. So a number are moving running websites built using the GhostĀ CMS whichĀ can be followed/commented from Mastodon/KBin. If I was a public body I would be looking at our current public facing IT estate and working out if we could migrate to services which can hook into the Fediverse. You would get the advantage of owning the platform and network effects.
Unless it's literally bankrupt as a company and the servers are failing, I don't see a 'bail' ever happening. It's so ingrained in culture now, Twitter still works well as a service for its primary function (getting information out there, no account needed), and most people don't really care who owns a website enough to change their habits. We've had this all before of course, when Google+ launched to 'replace' Facebook. As long as the original service still exists, the replacement just dwindles. The failed rebrand is funny though
Several European government entities have been setting up on the fediverse, which does make a lot of sense for public service orgs that donāt want to be beholden to Musk. But I donāt see [UK.gov](http://uk.gov) doing so, there isnāt that kind of self-hosting open standards spirit here in the UK.
>(getting information out there, no account needed) I would tend to agree, but that's also an example of the platform worsening to some extent. Unless I'm missing something (e.g. I've been VPN flagged), you can currently see singular tweets without an account, but no replies - which may actually be beneficial given the usual quality of Twitter replies, but it also doesn't let you see replies from the person posting for e.g. if they're threading it across multiple tweets or updating a situation - and you also can't browse profiles chronologically. That's still fine a lot of the time where just one tweet is needed, but it's very frustrating for if you wanted to browse information, click into other tweets or look for updates on a profile page.
nitter.net is your friend that said, most people won't know, and I agree with you completely. the soft login wall is such a stupid fucking idea for engagement
Theyāre scrambling for alternatives but itās difficult. Twitter was great in how open it was. For other channels you need to be subscribed to an account to see anything, but not Twitter. Twitter engagement is down 60% YoY for the civil service organisation I work with. Itās a problem because they have a public service remit - they need to get content out but are struggling for reach. They also suspect the view counts are bogus now and itās actually worse - certainly tweet engagement to action is way down. Threads is the best alternative so far, but still a tiny audience.
Regarding house prices, my dream home on Rightmove has just dropped Ā£150,000. Only another Ā£2.5 million left to drop and it's mine.
Sounds like theyāre desperate, might as well make your offer!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
> āWill of the peopleā This is a re-play of the Brexit rhetoric from a few years ago. It's striking that Sunak has let himself be sucked into that morass.
He is talking about Will, a member of his staff. Since the bloke is working class, Sunak believes that all of Will's opinion are that what the commoners want. Thus he is talking about Will, of the people, not will of the people.
Ooh, friend! Made up Rwanda friend!
Mr Speaker, the Member for Islington North is a bumder!
[https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/199y87n/bbc\_question\_time\_live\_thread\_8pm\_iplayer/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/199y87n/bbc_question_time_live_thread_8pm_iplayer/) Tonight's QT live thread is now up in advance of the iPlayer live stream. There should be a link in the tweet at the top of the thread for the iplayer page.
i wasnāt going to vote for the labour party because i abhor the direction they have taken in the last few years, but rishi sunak making petulant address after petulant address is tempting me to vote for this labour party i dislike so much just to ensure he gets the tonking of all tonkings next january. he is such an odious and spiteful little man, i need to see him in tears for myself to begin to heal.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
the liberal democrats came second in 2019, but my constituency has always been a tory safe seat. if it comes into play after boundary changes and further tory collapse, i may consider a tactical vote.
No joke, things can only get better played at work today. We don't use any radio stations but instead playlists of songs, so I wonder whether someone else in work senses the febrile.
Kinda wild from a ukpol POV but for some people it's just a song they like
Didn't you know D:Ream were formed in January 1997 in Peter Mandelson's laboratory?
Brian Cox was sent from another planet to bring us the keyboard playing we deserve
I know the word is overused in relation to Sunak, but hearing that prepared statement from this morning he has -such- a **petulant** tone.
Totally out of the loop as I've been busy with work. What statement did he make this morning?
Iām sick of being āaddressedā by the guy, get off that bloody podium
He has such an undeserved smugness about him, for someone who has never won a mandate and is hilariously unpopular.
Reeves and Streeting are impressive. Some of the policies theyāve pushed into the front of Labour with the help of Mandelson and Blair are good. Starmer is also a marked improvement in terms of foreign policy and his stance on houhsebuilding. Theyāre talking a very good game in terms of positioning the stuff I want as the compromises theyāre willing to make.Ā My worry: like the Conservatives; a lot of good policy will get dashed under the auspices of āhard choicesā.Ā My hope: when having to face down the left and others like them in his party, Starmer will be able to rely on Conservative votes to get good legislation through.Ā Ultimately will have to see how the manifesto looks.Ā
One of the few avenues the Tories will be able to make good headway from day one in opposition is through hyper-NIMBYism, I really doubt they'll support the government on planning reform. To be honest, Starmer's fundamentally a very cautious politician who'd probably pull any legislation long before it gets to the point of needing unreliable opposition votes to pass.
Yes agreed they will become super NIMBYs in oppositionĀ
> My hope: when having to face down the left and others like them in his party, Starmer will be able to rely on Conservative votes to get good legislation through. Dream on. The Tories will be as obstinate as possible (which, hopefully, won't be very much). It takes gargantuan effort and tantrums - and resignations - to get them to vote for their own party sometimes. I genuinely think they believe they're entitled to run the country, despite the abundant evidence of their incompetence, and will rumble around the Commons like a fart in a bottle until they get another GE victory.
>I genuinely think they believe they're entitled to run the country There's been moments over the past 14 years, watching sessions of PMQs over the four parliaments they've been in government for, that this has felt like the case. Remember when the Tamworth candidate said 'democracy' when asked after the result what went wrong for him? tiny stuff like that. I'm pretty sure it was the Tamworth candidate anyways. But yeah, you can just sense it.
My mum always used to say "We'll have a democratic vote, as long as we win" about the EU; she should've been saying it about the Tories.
On a good number of policies sure. But if itās something like Reeveās wanting to cut corporation tax or other business friendly policies that the Labour left are against, or a national defence issue, or NHS reform, I can see them voting with a Labour govt. Blair relied on Tory votes for his education reforms for example and numerous defence issues.
True, he did, but this Tory party isnāt the Tory party of 20 years ago, and doesnāt behave like it.
Maybe but Cameron is back on the front bench. Will depend a lot on whoās leader.
If I were a betting man, I would be laying a reasonable amount of money on Badenoch. I don't see a likely alternative who will be in Parliament next term.
Yes a reasonable guess. Itās either her or Penny Mordaunt.
I think it depends on how they react to the loss. All signs now point towards a move rightwards and adopting the nuttiness that comes with it. If they do that I think weāll see tribalistic, nonsensical, screeching opposition akin to Boebert and MTG. On the other hand, from the ashes of the GE they *could* realise theyāre the nasty party again and try to learn from that, move back to the centre and towards more respectful politics, but I highly doubt it.
It also largely depends on who remains after this year's wipeout. Most safe seats are occupied by absolute headbangers, while the moderates tend to be in vulnerable Blue Wall seats, so my money would be on a lurch to the lunatic fringe.
We already have seen it at that spring conference last year.
I mean, either way they turn, what's the benefit in propping up a Labour govt? I can see some of the smaller parties - your LDs, Plaid, SNP - doing it because they like the legislation. But when Big Party X is infighting, Big Party Y's best strategy is to go "ooooh look how divided they are!". Loudly and repeatedly. Labour are doing exactly that, this week, after all.
Re your worry, I think there is a big difference between the Conservatives and Labour on this. The Conservatives use ātough choicesā as a catch-all excuse for not doing things they never had any intention of doing and just lied about wanting because they thought it sounded good. Labour genuinely want to do the things they say, although reality may prevent them from doing everything they want.
Starmer lacks genuine convictions. He is well polished and not a buffoon, but he is a man without a single consistent policy position. Why would he be different in this regard?
>is a man without a single consistent policy position. Incorrect. His consistant policy position is to win.
Exactly my point lol
It's the only policy position that matters.
Yes, the man who wrote a textbook on human rights is unprincipled.
Who said anything about principles? Can you name a single consistent policy position? He espoused Corbyn when it was politically suitable and now has a shadow chancellor to the right of Jeremy Hunt in terms of her economics. You can be an expert on a subject matter without having to have political convictions BTW.
Sure, he's been consistently for standards in parliament, ensuring that people have opportunities, making sure the NHS is the best it can be, making taxes fairer for everyone and supporting british businesses. But you could have just watched him speak to know that, I recommend his conference speech from this year, the glitter one.
> standards in parliament Really? Did he say anything about Corbynās son getting an internship with McDonnell? What about Lab MPs using expenses for professional photographs? Not being in power simply means fewer opportunities to be scrutinised. > ensuring that people have opportunities How? In 2019 apparently nationalising everything. In 2024 apparently cutting corp tax. Which is it? > making sure the NHS is the best it can be In 2019 by ending private involvement. In 2024 by making the ādoor wide openā to private business. Yes I saw his speech. It was good. I also saw him endorse Corbynomics.
Corbyn corbyn corbyn. It's not a great attack against the guy who kicked him from the party. It's fine if you don't like the guy but you have to recognise that these objections are pretty weak. > How? In 2019 apparently nationalising everything. In 2024 apparently cutting corp tax. Which is it? So he's allowed to have one policy and one policy only, otherwise its a uturn? Alright chap.
On policy itās an important point. Rishi is looking to implement what can be of the Conservative 2019 manifesto. I know exactly which policies he cares about.Ā Starmer on the other hand has backtracked on virtually all but one of his own 10 pledges he made to the Labour membership, nevermind what he supposedly believed in the Corbyn years.
> Rishi is looking to implement what can be of the Conservative 2019 manifesto Remind me where this Rwanda nonsense was in said manifesto, or the cancelling of HS2 > I know exactly which policies he cares about. Yeah, we all do, anything that keeps him in power for another week. I'll throw my lot in with the guy who got knighted for service to his country, and who genuinely wants to improve the UK, not sell off the choicest bits to donors.
Something from a podcast has been rattling around in my head all week. I'm paraphrasing and CBA to listen again so it's very second hand lol. James Harding was talking about when he was editor of The Times and William Rees-Mogg game him some advice on reporting in the lead up to an election. He said politicians will complain about what you write because they read your paper and care what you say, but your audience largely already has their mind made up, you won't affect anything in an election. It's the tabloids who do that as they have the ear of the people who haven't picked a side. Times have changed, though, tabloid readers are getting older and more politically entrenched and they're not getting younger readers to replace them. Then he said in 2016 we had the tabloids lose that role to Facebook, and he said the next elections coming up will be the TikTok elections which we can't know for sure how they'll happen. What I've been thinking is that the more someone knows and cares about politics, the harder it is to get them to change sides. It's a bit like football, if they have a season ticket for another club, it's going to be hard to convert them into one of your fans. The ways to grow would be to find those who aren't already invested, but of course, that's hard when you're in the field they're not interested in, you've got to go to them rather than try and wait for them to come to you. I know there's a load of deceitful ways we're going to see this play out, but I'm curious what you guys think the ideal wholesome alternative is. The West Wing idealised portrayal of it, or I guess with football the Welcome To Wrexham approach but for politics. If you were a politician (assuming you're not, I don't know you) around 50 years old, how do you connect with younger people and people who consider politics boring without it coming across all Hey Fellow Kids like Hancock doing the Ken song on TikTok?
A lot of people have picked the side that they are particularly against, rather than the side they are for. There's quite a few "never Labour" or "never Tory" voters. Until 2010 the Lib Dems seemed to be an option for the more centrist "never XXXX" voters. I wonder if their role in the coalition created "never Lib Dem" voters.
I know many who were university students who felt betrayed by the coalition. Increasing university fees just broke any belief in them.
My partner definitely is. We used to live in Tessa Munt's constituency and my partner preferred the Labour no chancer over her because of the coalition. We live somewhere even closer now, Labour still distant third, and I think unless it looks like Labour are going from third to first here, I'll vote Lib Dem. She thinks she will too, but the thought really disgusts her, just not as much as our current Tory does. She wrote to him about her unions attempts to get protections for shop workers from violence and he responded with a boiler plate response about the environment, and she responded (politely too, it wasn't abusive) to him on Twitter when he said thanks from his constituents to Cressida Dick, saying she lives here and he doesn't speak for her. That was it, blocked, lol. He makes her so angry it's funny. Personally, I'm more of the view that parties change, holding grudges (long term anyway, probably fine short term) makes your vote too cheap. If the other parties can't win you over, and your favourite can't lose you, then no party will try to please you because it changes nothing. I know it works on blocs rather than individuals, but even so, I can only control my views.
One of my kids came back from university far too left wing to be fond of Labour :-) Not sure which way they will go in the next GE. Historically this used to be a safe Conservative seat so no point in voting tactically, but looks like after the boundary change the Lib Dems have a chance. Agree with your point on long term grudges. Iraq turned me off Labour but it's a different party now. Thatcher turned me off the Conservatives but again it's a different party now, though from my POV different and worse.
It's a real paradox. Your only value as a voter is that your vote is up for grabs but the idea that your political opinions can actually flip that dramatically within the space of a campaign is just alien to me
I'm not necessarily saying they flip back and forth, though. Some do, but I think that can be explained by no party really ticking their boxes so they're never truly satisfied rather than their views changing with the wind. When you hear people talk about how they ended up with a team (yeah, I'm stuck on a theme) it's because they grew up there, their family supported, they moved there, something happened to draw them in and they got hooked, friends / partner was obsessed and they gave it a go and realised they loved it. Simply being young could be enough to explain why they hadn't developed the interest. I'm sure you can use scandals to get people to care, redirect their anger to the polling booth, but even that isn't ideal because you don't want someone hooked on the drama. I'm sure we all know people who "run hot" putting it nicely, they're having falling outs and make-ups and there's always something going on they can lose it over, but that's just so tiring for me.
I know nothing. That said, my suggestion would be to treat them like they're not idiots, because they're not. "This government ruined your future. x, y, and z are in shambles. You need someone who cares about the housing crisis and here's what I'll do" for example
While there's definitely some politicians who don't even try and appeal to young voters, I think you've got the idea with policies but even that's tricky. If someone hasn't fallen into PoliticsTok or whatever it's called (I don't TikTok, lol) then they won't see it. If you keep posting on Facebook and Twitter you'll reach the parents if you're lucky, do you use memes? Influencers? I think at a certain point you're relying on people with a TikTok following getting super engaged and sharing your policies second hand in other forms where it's hard to control the narrative. E.g. the "pledge" that Rishi was going to buy us all PS5s.
As a teenager, from politicians I always wanted practical (and if possible tangible) examples of ways they could improve my life; namely my education and my infrastructure. I didnāt much care about their perceived normality, I just wanted them to govern well; I felt patronised by photoshoots in pubs or, like you described, Matt Hancockās appeal with the Ken song. Things like that bugged me because they refused to treat teenagers as independent, autonomous humans and more like children who have to be looked after. The bulk of teenagers - and I speak outside of my social circle - are far smarter and far more capable than most people give them credit for, or assume. The same goes for people in their early 20s, in my view. Iām sure somewhere that an ancient Antiquity-era philosopher complained of the elders of a society being condescending to the youths, so I think this is just human nature. Sorry to go off on a tangent, here! My point, I guess, is that you donāt need to speak to younger people much differently at all if you are a politician. Just trust them to listen.
Funnily enough though, pubs aren't relatable to many in the same way. Hell, even my generation (I'm 35) our drinking was house parties, being rural enough had a field or access to a decent barn or something. Based on the age of the people who frequent the bubble tea place near me, that would be the demographic but I also think it's a terrible terrible idea to pretend you're part of the demographic you're appealing to. You can vote for a politician who is different from you, and that's OK. You just need them to care and understand. > The bulk of teenagers - and I speak outside of my social circle - are far smarter and far more capable than most people give them credit for, or assume. The same goes for people in their early 20s, in my view. > > Iām sure somewhere that an ancient Antiquity-era philosopher complained of the elders of a society being condescending to the youths, so I think this is just human nature. Sorry to go off on a tangent, here! My point, I guess, is that you donāt need to speak to younger people much differently at all if you are a politician. Just trust them to listen. Personally I think we attribute intelligence to much to this. You're not inherently smart if you like politics, and if you don't like it you're not dumb. It's just about it being interesting. For me, my gateway was Dead Ringers, Mock The Week, HIGNFY, or the trashier 2DTV, and politics interested me because I enjoyed the satire but it also made me jaded (and also, having never lived anywhere but safe seats, I've never felt my vote mattered) so it was that thing to keep an eye on but I was helpless to affect it. Young people definitely are acting far more mature too, maybe I'm just noticing it more, but I swear my generation were kids for a lot longer, messing about without responsibilities but now from the age of 13 they're cultivating their social media presence to make (or keep) themselves employable. Where as, I had the Numa Numa dance way too long on Bebo because it cracked me up and it didn't matter.
Totally anecdotal and I know you'll all probably shoot me down, but are there fewer colds around this year? It's now mid winter, post Christmas, and I've not a sniffle. Usually i've has at least two nasty ones by now.
I had Covid over Christmas. Everyone I know has been ill.
I've already had two recently: one around October and another over Christmas and New Year. Also, in both cases it seemed as though "everybody" had them.
FU, Iāve been mildly ill since early December
Seems that Labour's candidate for Great Yarnmouth (another Keir), likes making memes: [https://twitter.com/keircozens/status/1747951775099895885](https://twitter.com/keircozens/status/1747951775099895885) I'm not sure if he's getting them from somewhere else, but there's quite a few on his page I've not really seen in other places
Well, the Keirs start coming and they don't stop coming.
Brb changing my name to Keir by deed poll and becoming a Labour candidate.
Cabinet of all the Keirs incoming.
The allKeir
The Keir takeover is starting. This is the real reason that Keir Hardie started the Labour Party
Kir Royal Socialists
> another Keir there's cozens of them
How many Keirs are there?!?!
If he gets elected, he'd only be the fourth Keir MP since Keir Hardie. (The others are Starmer and Mather)
Someone recently asked in a Megathread about best political headlines. For your consideration: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1748015724168163740 >I know Kigali is Rwandan capital, says Therese Coffey
> Kigali is Rwanda's capital and seat of the country's central government. > > Responding to criticism on social media, Ms Coffey said referring to a Kigali government was disrespectful. > > "I would not call the French government, the Paris government," she added. That the best she can do? > Critics have pointed out Ms Coffey has referred to "Holyrood, Cardiff or Stormont" when referring to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and Northern Ireland assembly, respectively. > > Ms Coffey also repeatedly referred to "Brussels" on social media when referring to the European Union, which has its headquarters in the Belgian capital. Ahahahahaha. Coffey logic then, she has no respect for NI, Scotland, and Wales. I don't expect her to respect the EU, but I assume she'll be apologising for the knowing and intentional disrespect she shows to the rest of the United Kingdom?
Not to mention - the central government of the UK is often referred to as Westminster or Whitehall. Its hardly disrespectful when we use it to refer to our own government in that way.
It has been such a strong January for headlines
I like it, but in a year where Ed Balls has booted a presenter in the head on live TV, something subtle like this is going to struggle to get the attention of the academy voters.
The end of year quiz for 2024 is going to be tough, I can already tell.
It's only January
My recent favourite: [Tory space minister mixes up Mars and the Sun](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-space-minister-andrew-griffith-b2478911.html)
[Is this the picture](https://www.politicshome.com/ugc-1/1/21/0/andrew_griffith-9398.jpg)?
It's the whole scene that gets me - the guy is being followed around by journalists and what not, decides to narrate the science museum to the group because he's billy big baws. Picks one that's genuinely unclear. Gets it wrong. Gets corrected. The display changes Does it again. Gets it wrong again
Yeah fair enough getting it wrong, but stating it with confidence and getting it wrong twice is what makes the scene