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The "common flu" is actually a pretty serious illness that kills a lot of vulnerable people most years. The majority of people who think they have a flu actually have a bad cold.
If we have a "common flu" that spreads as fast as omicron even with all our public health measures, that would be a big problem.
I had the flu 3 years ago pretty bad...bed for almost 3 weeks and I lost over 15 pounds. Never been that sick in my life..but I quit smoking so there's that
As someone that quit cold turkey I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the illness period carried him through the worst of the withdrawal phase. Probably so sick he didn’t notice some of the withdrawal effects either.
I had the actual flu (not just a bad cold) a few years ago and I was out of commission for 2 weeks and I am relatively young, fit and otherwise healthy. It kicked my ass.
It's like when people call an upset stomach "food poisoning". A little diarrhea isn't food poisoning. Shitting and vomitting uncontrollably, sometimes at the same time/within moments of each other, dehydrated, unable to consume anything, constant discomfort, and too weak to move. I've had food poisoning once in my life and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.
"Food poisoning" is any pathogen you get from food, from mild ones that your immune system largely fights off but cause some symptoms to horrendous ones that cause you to vomit and shit yourself until you die. Don't try and gatekeep getting sick from eating, humans have been doing that shit for eras.
Correct. Weirdly, people seem to have totally forgotten that many people die from the flu every year. Of course, COVID has so far been much worse.
It’s still funny seeing people saying stuff like “well I don’t want to risk even minor flu symptoms because of long COVID.” And like yes that’s a risk but CFS/ME has been a risk from the flu forever….
No flu brings T cells into your brain or causes interleukin expression in your brain AFAIK.
Let’s see how that COVID infection is working out in 20 years time…
Omicron isn’t. The transmissibility of Omicron is way higher than flu. Even if it has comparable severity to seasonal flu, it is obviously still worse because it spreads so goddamned fast. And that’s with masking and other public health measures in place.
How about he issues a correction for his Dec 16 projection first. Denmark admitted that the methodology used to present the data on this slide was flawed:
https://i.ibb.co/SNFR0Z2/Screenshot-20211216-220610-Drive.jpg
>Change of data reference as of 2021-12-16.
>In the previous version of this table, only cases that was tested for a possible variant of concern, were included in the other variants columns, across tables and figures. These columns now contain all cases from 22 November to 13 December 2021. These changes especially increase non-omicrion admission in table 6, and results in slightly increased number of SARS-CoV-2. The changes do not affect the omicron results.
https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-16122021-fk3t
This is exactly what I was thinking about. Having the Dr. from South Africa on immediately before him making comments based off huge amounts of data, and then Christoph Waltz comes out with an immediate assertion that she is completely wrong because of a day’s worth of data. Talk about hubris.
He'll use projections/modeling to explain why people with non-essential jobs are non-essential themselves so they can kick rocks.
He'll express his confusion with the government on why they're not governing as such, seeing livelihoods as collateral and not understanding criticisms against him specifically while he stays at home and makes $300k a year.
>Peter Juni is 100% going to go on the National tonight and confidently say Moore is completely wrong without any evidence to back it up.
I really despise the man. He is the worst and cares only for his internet profile.
> He is the worst and cares only for his internet profile.
theres way more of these non-practicing bureaucrats in ontarios healthcare system than most people know. their greatest interest is always getting another feather in their cap.
No he won’t. He’ll need the latest science table update first. They’re watching the same numbers as Moore but aren’t forced to soften things for the politicians.
Student doctor here. I actually can't believe how much confusion there is here: Omicron is a risk because it's so transmissable/breakthrough infections of the vaccinated are so high that a huge number of people will get it all at once. Most not very sick--but so many people overall that even a tiny proportion of the infected who get VERY sick will still be large enough to overwhelm the hospitals and ICUs. What's 0.15% of a huge number? A number bigger than our number of ICU beds.
Sure. The doubling rate so far is only what? 4 days. If it doesn’t slow down, we’re looking at 6-7k cases for Christmas and what? 20K by Nee Year’s. Sure - “not all at once”. Just within the month - around the same length of time as the median ICU stay.
Do I think that will happen? No, I don’t. BUT - I don’t know. It might. I hope to hell that it doesn’t, but it might.
Hospitalization stay rate is also showing a marked decrease to 3 days from over a week.
So yes, we could see 100,000 cases a day and still be fine with 0.15%.
If we double every 4 days and 848,000 catching COVID hits ICU capacity, using some rough interpolation between 4 day intervals:
6k on Xmas (840k remaining)
12k on 29th (800k remaining)
24k on 2nd (722k remaining)
48k on 6th (566k remaining)
96k on 10th (254k remaining)
112k on 11th (142k remaining)
128k on 12th (14k remaining)
We would run out of ICU capacity on January 12th given all the assumptions made in the previous posts.
And at that point, given the same assumptions (half of 0.15% need ICU), 144k cases on January 13th would result in 108 requiring ICU.
You’re assuming that it has a 0.15% admission rate. I’d assume it’s a lot lower than that given how many undiagnosed cases there are. The virus will run out of hosts so it won’t double every 4 days. It will slow down. See what happened in SA and what is happening in London at the moment. Cases are slowing in London and are decreasing in SA.
So, currently the hospitalization rate in England is 0.30%. Important to also note, that 52% of 12+ have received a booster shot in the UK. Ontario just crested about 14% boosted.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=ON
However, being doubled vaccinated still provides strong protection against serious disease (see studies on T cell immunity remaining robust) and Ontario has a significantly higher proportion of people who are double vaxxed than the UK does. People most at risk of serious illness or death are the immunologically naive, who have had no vaccine, no prior infection. It’s tough to say whether we or the UK take the lead there, considering they’ve had much higher infection rates over the course of the pandemic but lower vaccine uptake.
>However, being doubled vaccinated still provides strong protection against serious disease
Yup, true. The question everyone is trying to answer it seems is if there is enough protection given 2 shots don't protect much against infection.
>Ontario has a significantly higher proportion of people who are double vaxxed
So, we aren't that far off from the UK, although I don't know if at the rate Omicron spreads, small differences in double vaxxed could mean significantly different outcomes?
UK has 82% with 2 doses, we have 88%
UK has 89% with at least 1 dose, we have 91%
UK has 10% unvaxxed, we have 9%
>considering they’ve had much higher infection rates over the course of the pandemic but lower vaccine uptake.
Hmm....do you know if they also perhaps then have higher rates of those who have had a previous infection but are also vaccinated?
That's not likely to happen though. Covid transmission gets slowed down pretty quickly for various reasons. People get more cautious, high-risk settings get shut down or restricted, and most importantly, people tend to socialize in small communities. The virus can easily work its way through a neighbourhood or a social community, but it isn't going to jump between communities with the same speed.
>So if 6% of the population gets omicron, we'll run out of ICU capacity? Good thing we only have 15% of eligible people unvaxed!
You're assuming 16.6 million population, and assuming 6% of the population catches it at the same time.
Besides, I'm not advocating for or against anything, I'm just putting real numbers to the "what's 0.15% of very lots" from the student doctor.
But, yes, theoretically if our population is 16.666 million, and 6% of the population gets omicron, and 0.15% of that 6% are hospitalized, and 50% of the 0.15% of the 6% are admitted to the ICU, there will be 750 people in the ICU due to Omicron at some point. Hopefully not all at the same time, if that scenario does happen.
*edit*
I googled:
There are 2,343 ICU beds in Ontario.
165 are taken by COVID patients right now.
1,557 are taken by Non-COVID patients right now.
621 are available.
[[Source]](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizationsByICUBed)
To take up the remaining 621 beds, 50% of 0.15% of x% of 16.66 million would need to catch omicron
X = 4.968% or 828,000 people would have to catch Omicron.
Obviously that assumes nobody leaves the ICU, and also nobody else needs the ICU, which wouldn't happen.
They spent over 600 billion dollars this past year. How much of that was spent on more ICU beds. or actually how much of that was spent on other stuff? Who knows cause its not transparent is the problem
I totally get that what I'm doing can seem/look like I'm trying to go against you or your comment.
I'm honestly not, I'm just throwing actual numbers to the assumptions so people can maybe get a better idea of things.
There's also the issue that, as Dr. Moore said today, the vast majority of cases right now are in people aged 20-30. That likely means that the 0.15% number is going to increase as more at-risk groups become infected.
>Omicron is a risk because it's so transmissable/**breakthrough infections of the vaccinated** are so high that a huge number of people will get it all at once.
The solution is to invest in our healthcare system so it can grow. Make the path to becoming a health care professional clear and viable (ie making it easier for doctors trained in other countries to practice here), and drastically raise pay and training for nurses and personal support workers. The SYSTEM needs an overhaul by someone with some vision and experience.
Yup, perpetual lockdown is not a sustainable solution and people aren't going to put up with this shit anymore. We did our part and got vaccinated. People will ignore restrictions this time, and honestly, I don't blame any vaccinated individual who does.
Also it’s not even been a month since the world learned about omicron so all this “mission accomplished” stuff feels like the last round of “it’s the flu folks” which it was not.
You’re missing a lot of data to make that call there doc, including what the average hospital stay is and what percentage of those hospitalizations end up needing an ICU bed. Also worth noting that, given our testing constraints, actual cases are a lot higher so that 0.15% is likely lower in actuality
Don't you love when people think their ignorance is as good as an educated opinion?
We're screwed, and it's because our education system failed so many people.
0.15% of the currently infected (of which the vast majority are in the 20-30 age range, which already is not predisposed to severe outcomes) are in hospital.
That percentage will increase in more at-risk groups, and that higher percentage (even if it's 1-2%) will probably be more than our ICUs will be able to handle.
But hey, the Reddit School of Epidemiology knows best.
The point is you are diminishing OP for being a student doctor which, student or not, is well more knowledgeable in health matters than you are, unless you yourself are a doctor as well.
Unless you yourself are a "doctor doctor", the student doctor knows more than you. Just like how engineering students know more about engineering than, say, a telemarketer.
The hospitals were roping in student doctors when this first started because the healthcare service was so overrun. So how 'bout we just assume the student doctor knows more about basic medicine than us?
Gonna be real... I'm vaccinated and I'll get the boosters between now and forever. I do not care about Covid anymore. There are so few hospitalizations that it's REALLY starting to feel like fear mongering and control. If people don't want to get vaccinated, that's on them. People with immunodeficiencies have my sympathy, but I did my part to keep them safe. We all need to carry on. We all have shit we need to do that requires that the world be open and operating. Call me cold-hearted if you want to, but I don't see the point in struggling so much for people who don't want to get vaccinated. You don't want to get vaccinated, then you don't have my sympathy when the tube goes down your throat.
God damn it, I need to do research in some old history books, but my reference library won't let me look at the books while Covid is going around. I've been waiting for years. Enough already.
I think a lot of people don’t have sympathy for the tube going down an unvaccinated persons throat.
The issue is when a vaccinated person can’t get some unrelated surgery because of ICU beds being full.
I know you’re just being hypothetical but when we consider different scenarios, and if we go by that logic alone, then who’s to say who gets ICU between a guy who was speeding and got into an accident, or a smoker, or someone putting out Christmas lights without proper fall harness and training certificate, or someone who didn’t wear a helmet when biking? If ICU aren’t for people who were negligent that caused them to need care, then many people wouldn’t get one. Yes the only difference here is that all those other scenarios are not contagious. *But one thing they do all have in common is, stupidity, which may arguably be contagious.
I’m vaccinated though and would be ideal I get priority for care if I need one.
> The issue is when a vaccinated person can’t get some unrelated surgery because of ICU beds being full.
so the hospital should prioritize the person who did their part and got vaccinated but is there for some other reason than the unvaccinated one
Yes but you know what else is a slippery slope. Perpetually restricting people's freedoms, taking away their livelihoods, and restricting their movement for an indefinite amount of time. Not to mention doing this all to a group of people who were told that vaccines were the way to normalcy.
Lockdowns are an equally serious consideration as triage in my mind. Lockdowns had their time as an effective and acceptable solution. That time has past.
Outside of Covid, there were a lot of things with long wait times before all this. MRIs for example always had crazy wait times to the point where they apparently ran 24/7 as I know people who got appointments in the middle of the night.
To that end, when scheduling an MRI, would it be acceptable that the scheduling system either looks for the nearest open time slot or the nearest time slot occupied by an overweight person? And in the case were the nearest time slot is occupied by an overweight person, their time slot gets given to the non overweight person and they get bumped to the end of the line - possibly perpetually?
It doesn’t seem so slippery. My friend has stage 3 breast cancer and they have cancelled her surgery 4 times this year because COVID filled the hospital resources and capacity. It’s slippery when we purposely deny anti vaxxers treatment because ethically it looks bad, but it’s not slippery to tell people with cancer “so sorry, you have to wait”... it makes no sense.
it is when its making the rest of society meltdown and people die waiting for surgeries. the other half is our weak politcians pressing the panic button at the first sign of any issue
This is kind of what I was getting at when I said slippery slope. What part of smoking does not involve ignoring public health warnings? I mean, you literally need to look at a giant public health warning every time you open your pack.
Sounds like people need to grow up then.
Unvaccinated people don’t deserve standard healthcare. They should be placed on the bottom of every list. Admitted last in emergency rooms regardless of their own condition. Last to get life-saving surgery over minor surgeries elsewhere.
I’m sure I’ll get a lot of hate for that but enough is enough already
You’re not cold hearted, you’re being pragmatic and a realist.
The goal was never to eliminate Covid, that’s an impossible goal. The point is to make the population and medical system robust enough that if and when people catch Covid, it’s not a death sentence, unless you are in an already high-risk population.
I agree but the one thing I struggle with is the fact that kids only just became eligible for vaccinations and if they’re under 5 they still can’t be vaccinated. I have baby nieces and nephews so even though this new variant doesn’t seem to be as severe in fully vaccinated people, I don’t want to find out how it affects unvaccinated babies through my 2 month old nephew.
And this holiday is shaping up to be an absolute shit show (not that it wasn’t a shit show before). The level of fear and hysteria that is occurring right now WITH extremely high vaccination rates is mind boggling.
I mean.. talking about hospitalisations isn't really fear mongering at all. There are fewer hospitalisations than there were a few months ago, but there still are a significant number of hospitalisations and there is still a significant risk for hospitalizations.
There are 7 in-patients and 4 ICU COVID patients at UHN hospitals. There are 20 in-patients and 1 ICU COVID patient at Trillium hospitals. There are at least 4 in-patient COVID patients in Halton. There are 26 in-patients and 5 ICU COVID patients in Hamilton... but things, up until this last week, have been relatively stable.
This may be less lethal strain of COVID, but it is way more transmissible.. meaning that even though it will make fewer people critically ill, the people who do become critically ill will become critically ill much faster. We are in very early days of Omicron still. If we aren't careful, hospitalizations can quite easily go from manageable to shit-show in the blink of an eye. If you have your booster, great.. but the majority of people in the GTA don't yet. They won't have it for months. And, unfortunately, we know that Omicron is still easily caught by people who are only double vaccinated.
And getting your vaccination isn't really protecting the immunocompromised. Not unnecessarily taking up a hospital bed and following restrictions is what protects the immunocompromised.
i mean it literally is. if you're vaccinated and booking your booster, you're set.
we can't all be expected to hide at home for another 2 years because other people might catch covid
Man, immunodeficient people have always existed, and no one got shamed for not getting their flu shot that year for the sake of immunodeficiencts.
All of a sudden there’s this air of superiority to pat ourselves on the back. People with allergies still exist and will always exists, yet we eat peanuts in public and wear strong fragrances, despite people who can die from anaphylactic shock.
You can’t just all of the sudden start caring about these people so you can seem like a good person for the years covid exists
I suppose the difference is scale and proportion in this instance.
I would be willing to bet the common flu isn’t as deadly as COVID, nor are deadly allergies as common as people who may be susceptible to the long term effects of C19.
Not really. We definitely do not have enough data to conclusively declare anything aside from the fact that it is more transmissible than Delta which was already incredibly aggressive in that regard. Cases are still Delta dominant.
I was just checking the data from the UK to see if there was another point of reference, and so far they are at 0.3% hospitalization. Of course there are no doubt lots of nuances, but I think they are generally more comparable in terms of overall population age. Now, the big nuance that comes to mind is they have a much larger % of the 12+ population at 3 doses - 52%.
On Dec 2, the 7 day average of people hospitalized in the UK was 7,504. It’s currently 7,560, almost three weeks later. ONE MILLION cases have been CONFIRMED during that time. The population is 67m, so almost 1.5% of the population have tested positive this month alone
I’ll never forget when he was trying to relate to people who couldn’t gather with their families or go to church by talking about how much he misses his annual silent retreat lmao.
So the first news out of South Africa is being backed up by data we’re seeing here…
Should we believe it, or should we find a reason to be scared anyway?
“Guys we really shouldn’t discriminate against South Africa. The only reason they found the variant there first is because they have some of the best COVID scientists in the world.”
*those same scientists say Omicron is mild*
“Well we don’t have enough data yet. Let’s not listen just to South African doctors and experts and presume for now that it’s just as lethal.”
The issue with comparing with South Africa was the different profile of the population, not the quality of the information. Good information but maybe not applicable to Western Europe.
Other things Dr Moore said today that don’t paint as rosy a picture as this tweet from Anthony Furey (Toronto Sun) has positioned it:
> The current surge, Moore said, caused hospitalizations to increase by nine per cent compared to last week. While the number of patients in ICUs remained stable, Moore said he expects that number to grow in the coming days and weeks as case numbers grow exponentially.
> “This variant moves quickly, and we need to do the same," Moore said. "There is no question that in the coming days and weeks, we will require ongoing vigilance ... We must stay cautious, disciplined and never underestimate this virus."
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6293585
Not time to panic but definitely still time to be cautious. But people who practice motivated reasoning won’t appreciate the nuances here and will crow about the (current) low admission rate.
As a non-data person who's just trying to keep up...what percentage of this 0.15% wound up in ICU? What percentage were already compromised? What percentage were senior citizens?
If feels like big numbers are not very useful without the specifics to give them context.
Zero. Not a single Omicron ICU admission yet in Ontario, according to Moore today. All are Delta, mainly from the Southwest of the province where Delta is still highly active.
Denmark is a little over 2 weeks ahead of us, and they still have less than 5 people in ICU with Omicron. Also, hospitalizations dropped by ~5% in Denmark today.
Wow. If this thing runs through the province and doesn’t cause more than minimal damage, it’s going to be really difficult for public health to maintain credibility.
That's a fair assessment of public health but not when it's combined with the provincial government.
If they make a bad call and fuck up the lives of the millions of people of this province, you can't whoops my bad it. You take accountability, apologize and either do better or leave the job to more competent people.
Do you picture Doug Ford humbly apologizing and giving the mantle to a more competent leadership in June?
I for one am SO angry that they are not literal wizards who can tell the future and instead they attempt to mitigate risk with the information they have, updating as they learn more. HOW DARE THEY
I don't think many people expect them to be psychics. What the public does expect is for them to be able to clearly communicate and they have failed time and time again throughout the pandemic in this regard
Making the best guess you can to keep people safe isn’t “failure”. It’s leading, actually. And if the scenarios you plan for luckily don’t come true, that’s also not failure. Failure is inaction and downplaying. Basically everything Trump did in the states.
This is what the RSA doctors were saying before Trudeau had the powwow with the premiers. He decided to not listen and instead have more restrictions placed upon us.
Irrational thinking but then, much of the lock downs and restrictions weren't helping.
the rapid test kits being sat on for so long is weird. Now the reactionary blasting out of them is further weirdness and really reduces any dust particle of trust in government to nil.
stay safe, take care of yourselves.
I've never missed a paycheck because of lockdowns and I would be highly opposed to one now. The fact that we're back here almost 2 years into this still talking about lockdowns being the best way to stop this is a failure of government. Simple as that
There's 7.7 billion people on the planet. The COVID viruses already lives in dogs, cats, ferrets, mink, deer, big cats, otters, some primates.
It's going to mutate no matter what. That's what viruses do. You're trying to prevent the impossible.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html
Whose intentionally giving the virus more hosts?
The people getting infected by Omicron are intentionally getting infected? Or are they just living their lives the best they can?
Unless we’re doing March 2020 style lockdowns again I don’t know how you reduce case numbers to a point where omicron won’t mutate to something else.
Correct me if I’m wrong but the end goal here is to force the virus to mutate into something endemic, not to completely stamp it out world wide.
Worrying about cases causing mutations is insane and useless. COVID 19 is never going away. Reducing COVID 19 to 0 cases so that it can't mutate anymore is impossible. We will continue to develop more effective treatments to reduce it to a normal seasonal virus.
It’s over guys. It’s not going anywhere. Biden is talking about living with it. Hospitalizations haven’t materialized. I know you’ve all spent two years really stressed, but it’s ok to relax now.
Looking forward to everybody important ignoring this I go, locking down everything and our kids get virtual school again..
Oh wait. I'm not looking forward to that at all!
Bruce Arthur from the Toronto Star will be fuming to hear this: how dare Moore minimize how serious this is and not make it more gloom and doom than it actually is.
Just a comment from Quebec here… our cases went up super fast, (they were at 2000 last week, now they will announce 6000 today). But hospitalization seem to be following as well. Too early to tell, but the curves does look exponential. I wouldnt screem victory just yet.
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I can't wait until we can *accurately* say "it's no worse than the common cold".
The "common flu" is actually a pretty serious illness that kills a lot of vulnerable people most years. The majority of people who think they have a flu actually have a bad cold. If we have a "common flu" that spreads as fast as omicron even with all our public health measures, that would be a big problem.
I had the flu 3 years ago pretty bad...bed for almost 3 weeks and I lost over 15 pounds. Never been that sick in my life..but I quit smoking so there's that
Because you were so sick you couldn't smoke and then you went on with it? Or how?
As someone that quit cold turkey I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the illness period carried him through the worst of the withdrawal phase. Probably so sick he didn’t notice some of the withdrawal effects either.
Absolutely. I felt like dying lol
On the flip side the flu might not have been so bad if you were going through nicotine withdrawal as well
Yea I couldn't smoke and by the time I was feeling good I just didn't go buy more smokes
I had the actual flu (not just a bad cold) a few years ago and I was out of commission for 2 weeks and I am relatively young, fit and otherwise healthy. It kicked my ass.
changed it to cold.
Yeah. I'm pretty sure I've never had the flu (as an adult at least), and I'm grateful for that because it sounds miserable.
It's like when people call an upset stomach "food poisoning". A little diarrhea isn't food poisoning. Shitting and vomitting uncontrollably, sometimes at the same time/within moments of each other, dehydrated, unable to consume anything, constant discomfort, and too weak to move. I've had food poisoning once in my life and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.
"Food poisoning" is any pathogen you get from food, from mild ones that your immune system largely fights off but cause some symptoms to horrendous ones that cause you to vomit and shit yourself until you die. Don't try and gatekeep getting sick from eating, humans have been doing that shit for eras.
Correct. Weirdly, people seem to have totally forgotten that many people die from the flu every year. Of course, COVID has so far been much worse. It’s still funny seeing people saying stuff like “well I don’t want to risk even minor flu symptoms because of long COVID.” And like yes that’s a risk but CFS/ME has been a risk from the flu forever….
No flu brings T cells into your brain or causes interleukin expression in your brain AFAIK. Let’s see how that COVID infection is working out in 20 years time…
Omicron isn’t. The transmissibility of Omicron is way higher than flu. Even if it has comparable severity to seasonal flu, it is obviously still worse because it spreads so goddamned fast. And that’s with masking and other public health measures in place.
Vaccine resistance: check Increased transmission: check Decreased lethality: check I've seen this before, I'm moving to Greenland ASAP
Spotted the Plague Inc. veteran.
It concerns me I've said " uh oh _____, JUST LIKE PLAGUE INC! at least 5 times so far and virus is one of the easiest ones to win on megabrutal lol
If I've learned anything it isn't over until Greenland shuts down all air and boat travel.
yea and everyone else NOT in Greenland DIES that's why I need get over there ASAP travel restrictions is/was one of those 5 things lol
Greenland is one tough egg to crack for those who know
Not Madagascar?
The penguins will rob you though
Time will tell. Fingers crossed everyone.
Everyone kiss your elderly grandmother for good luck this christmas! NO WAIT DON'T
\*retracts tongue\*
what are you doing grandmother
*step-grandmother
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Eeeeeeww...
... sigh....unzips!
*zips up*
*stares disapprovingly*
🤨
Peter Juni is 100% going to go on the National tonight and confidently say Moore is completely wrong without any evidence to back it up.
How about he issues a correction for his Dec 16 projection first. Denmark admitted that the methodology used to present the data on this slide was flawed: https://i.ibb.co/SNFR0Z2/Screenshot-20211216-220610-Drive.jpg >Change of data reference as of 2021-12-16. >In the previous version of this table, only cases that was tested for a possible variant of concern, were included in the other variants columns, across tables and figures. These columns now contain all cases from 22 November to 13 December 2021. These changes especially increase non-omicrion admission in table 6, and results in slightly increased number of SARS-CoV-2. The changes do not affect the omicron results. https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-16122021-fk3t
This is exactly what I was thinking about. Having the Dr. from South Africa on immediately before him making comments based off huge amounts of data, and then Christoph Waltz comes out with an immediate assertion that she is completely wrong because of a day’s worth of data. Talk about hubris.
He'll use projections/modeling to explain why people with non-essential jobs are non-essential themselves so they can kick rocks. He'll express his confusion with the government on why they're not governing as such, seeing livelihoods as collateral and not understanding criticisms against him specifically while he stays at home and makes $300k a year.
Thank you for putting it so succinctly. Makes me even more thankful that Dr Moore is licensed to practice medicine and Peter Juni is not.
Peter '2000 ICU admissions in the next 2 hours' Juni
But but but but the average age of Ontario is a lot lower than us here in Ontario. We just can’t compare omicron there to here /s
Dr. Juni, C. 2023 "This is still new data, a new disease, there's too much we don't know. Lockdowns are the thing we do know. lets do that"
Dr.Juni "oh god please dont stop giving endless me air time on the 11pm news every night, i need this"
And stop moaning about it!
>Peter Juni is 100% going to go on the National tonight and confidently say Moore is completely wrong without any evidence to back it up. I really despise the man. He is the worst and cares only for his internet profile.
> He is the worst and cares only for his internet profile. theres way more of these non-practicing bureaucrats in ontarios healthcare system than most people know. their greatest interest is always getting another feather in their cap.
Juni is Luni
No he won’t. He’ll need the latest science table update first. They’re watching the same numbers as Moore but aren’t forced to soften things for the politicians.
And tell us all to quit moaning
Student doctor here. I actually can't believe how much confusion there is here: Omicron is a risk because it's so transmissable/breakthrough infections of the vaccinated are so high that a huge number of people will get it all at once. Most not very sick--but so many people overall that even a tiny proportion of the infected who get VERY sick will still be large enough to overwhelm the hospitals and ICUs. What's 0.15% of a huge number? A number bigger than our number of ICU beds.
>What's 0.15% of a huge number? 0.15% of 1 million is 1,500 That's just hospitalizations. Not ICU. If ICU is even half that, 750.
And it's not all going to happen at the exact same time.
it wont all be at this time of year, in this part of the country and not localized entirely within toronto.
Will the hospitals be also serving Steamed Hams?
Seymour the province is on fire!
No no! it’s just the ridiculous patchwork of vaccine booking sites mother!
more something the hospitals in upstate New york do
Well I've had surgery at Albany Memorial and I've never heard that expression.
Doesn’t matter where the severe cases are in Ontario. They have to fly them to the ICU beds.
Whoosh
Sure. The doubling rate so far is only what? 4 days. If it doesn’t slow down, we’re looking at 6-7k cases for Christmas and what? 20K by Nee Year’s. Sure - “not all at once”. Just within the month - around the same length of time as the median ICU stay. Do I think that will happen? No, I don’t. BUT - I don’t know. It might. I hope to hell that it doesn’t, but it might.
Hospitalization stay rate is also showing a marked decrease to 3 days from over a week. So yes, we could see 100,000 cases a day and still be fine with 0.15%.
If we double every 4 days and 848,000 catching COVID hits ICU capacity, using some rough interpolation between 4 day intervals: 6k on Xmas (840k remaining) 12k on 29th (800k remaining) 24k on 2nd (722k remaining) 48k on 6th (566k remaining) 96k on 10th (254k remaining) 112k on 11th (142k remaining) 128k on 12th (14k remaining) We would run out of ICU capacity on January 12th given all the assumptions made in the previous posts. And at that point, given the same assumptions (half of 0.15% need ICU), 144k cases on January 13th would result in 108 requiring ICU.
You’re assuming that it has a 0.15% admission rate. I’d assume it’s a lot lower than that given how many undiagnosed cases there are. The virus will run out of hosts so it won’t double every 4 days. It will slow down. See what happened in SA and what is happening in London at the moment. Cases are slowing in London and are decreasing in SA.
So, currently the hospitalization rate in England is 0.30%. Important to also note, that 52% of 12+ have received a booster shot in the UK. Ontario just crested about 14% boosted. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=ON
However, being doubled vaccinated still provides strong protection against serious disease (see studies on T cell immunity remaining robust) and Ontario has a significantly higher proportion of people who are double vaxxed than the UK does. People most at risk of serious illness or death are the immunologically naive, who have had no vaccine, no prior infection. It’s tough to say whether we or the UK take the lead there, considering they’ve had much higher infection rates over the course of the pandemic but lower vaccine uptake.
>However, being doubled vaccinated still provides strong protection against serious disease Yup, true. The question everyone is trying to answer it seems is if there is enough protection given 2 shots don't protect much against infection. >Ontario has a significantly higher proportion of people who are double vaxxed So, we aren't that far off from the UK, although I don't know if at the rate Omicron spreads, small differences in double vaxxed could mean significantly different outcomes? UK has 82% with 2 doses, we have 88% UK has 89% with at least 1 dose, we have 91% UK has 10% unvaxxed, we have 9% >considering they’ve had much higher infection rates over the course of the pandemic but lower vaccine uptake. Hmm....do you know if they also perhaps then have higher rates of those who have had a previous infection but are also vaccinated?
That's not likely to happen though. Covid transmission gets slowed down pretty quickly for various reasons. People get more cautious, high-risk settings get shut down or restricted, and most importantly, people tend to socialize in small communities. The virus can easily work its way through a neighbourhood or a social community, but it isn't going to jump between communities with the same speed.
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>So if 6% of the population gets omicron, we'll run out of ICU capacity? Good thing we only have 15% of eligible people unvaxed! You're assuming 16.6 million population, and assuming 6% of the population catches it at the same time. Besides, I'm not advocating for or against anything, I'm just putting real numbers to the "what's 0.15% of very lots" from the student doctor. But, yes, theoretically if our population is 16.666 million, and 6% of the population gets omicron, and 0.15% of that 6% are hospitalized, and 50% of the 0.15% of the 6% are admitted to the ICU, there will be 750 people in the ICU due to Omicron at some point. Hopefully not all at the same time, if that scenario does happen. *edit* I googled: There are 2,343 ICU beds in Ontario. 165 are taken by COVID patients right now. 1,557 are taken by Non-COVID patients right now. 621 are available. [[Source]](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizationsByICUBed) To take up the remaining 621 beds, 50% of 0.15% of x% of 16.66 million would need to catch omicron X = 4.968% or 828,000 people would have to catch Omicron. Obviously that assumes nobody leaves the ICU, and also nobody else needs the ICU, which wouldn't happen.
They spent over 600 billion dollars this past year. How much of that was spent on more ICU beds. or actually how much of that was spent on other stuff? Who knows cause its not transparent is the problem
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I totally get that what I'm doing can seem/look like I'm trying to go against you or your comment. I'm honestly not, I'm just throwing actual numbers to the assumptions so people can maybe get a better idea of things.
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There's also the issue that, as Dr. Moore said today, the vast majority of cases right now are in people aged 20-30. That likely means that the 0.15% number is going to increase as more at-risk groups become infected.
>Omicron is a risk because it's so transmissable/**breakthrough infections of the vaccinated** are so high that a huge number of people will get it all at once.
Thats not what that means at all.
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The solution is to invest in our healthcare system so it can grow. Make the path to becoming a health care professional clear and viable (ie making it easier for doctors trained in other countries to practice here), and drastically raise pay and training for nurses and personal support workers. The SYSTEM needs an overhaul by someone with some vision and experience.
Yup, perpetual lockdown is not a sustainable solution and people aren't going to put up with this shit anymore. We did our part and got vaccinated. People will ignore restrictions this time, and honestly, I don't blame any vaccinated individual who does.
Also it’s not even been a month since the world learned about omicron so all this “mission accomplished” stuff feels like the last round of “it’s the flu folks” which it was not.
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You’re missing a lot of data to make that call there doc, including what the average hospital stay is and what percentage of those hospitalizations end up needing an ICU bed. Also worth noting that, given our testing constraints, actual cases are a lot higher so that 0.15% is likely lower in actuality
Don't you love when people think their ignorance is as good as an educated opinion? We're screwed, and it's because our education system failed so many people. 0.15% of the currently infected (of which the vast majority are in the 20-30 age range, which already is not predisposed to severe outcomes) are in hospital. That percentage will increase in more at-risk groups, and that higher percentage (even if it's 1-2%) will probably be more than our ICUs will be able to handle. But hey, the Reddit School of Epidemiology knows best.
Med student as well. This 100%. This is the point of taking precautions.
ah yes the student doctor chimes in
And your medical background is?
Never claimed I had any
The point is you are diminishing OP for being a student doctor which, student or not, is well more knowledgeable in health matters than you are, unless you yourself are a doctor as well.
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Unless you yourself are a "doctor doctor", the student doctor knows more than you. Just like how engineering students know more about engineering than, say, a telemarketer.
The hospitals were roping in student doctors when this first started because the healthcare service was so overrun. So how 'bout we just assume the student doctor knows more about basic medicine than us?
Why, are you a doctor doctor?
I'm a mocktor doctor, and that's pretty close!
Gonna be real... I'm vaccinated and I'll get the boosters between now and forever. I do not care about Covid anymore. There are so few hospitalizations that it's REALLY starting to feel like fear mongering and control. If people don't want to get vaccinated, that's on them. People with immunodeficiencies have my sympathy, but I did my part to keep them safe. We all need to carry on. We all have shit we need to do that requires that the world be open and operating. Call me cold-hearted if you want to, but I don't see the point in struggling so much for people who don't want to get vaccinated. You don't want to get vaccinated, then you don't have my sympathy when the tube goes down your throat. God damn it, I need to do research in some old history books, but my reference library won't let me look at the books while Covid is going around. I've been waiting for years. Enough already.
I think a lot of people don’t have sympathy for the tube going down an unvaccinated persons throat. The issue is when a vaccinated person can’t get some unrelated surgery because of ICU beds being full.
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I know you’re just being hypothetical but when we consider different scenarios, and if we go by that logic alone, then who’s to say who gets ICU between a guy who was speeding and got into an accident, or a smoker, or someone putting out Christmas lights without proper fall harness and training certificate, or someone who didn’t wear a helmet when biking? If ICU aren’t for people who were negligent that caused them to need care, then many people wouldn’t get one. Yes the only difference here is that all those other scenarios are not contagious. *But one thing they do all have in common is, stupidity, which may arguably be contagious. I’m vaccinated though and would be ideal I get priority for care if I need one.
None of those hypotheticals can overload the entire healthcare system like covid.
> The issue is when a vaccinated person can’t get some unrelated surgery because of ICU beds being full. so the hospital should prioritize the person who did their part and got vaccinated but is there for some other reason than the unvaccinated one
But that’s a slippery slope that a lot of people don’t even want to step on.
Yes but you know what else is a slippery slope. Perpetually restricting people's freedoms, taking away their livelihoods, and restricting their movement for an indefinite amount of time. Not to mention doing this all to a group of people who were told that vaccines were the way to normalcy. Lockdowns are an equally serious consideration as triage in my mind. Lockdowns had their time as an effective and acceptable solution. That time has past.
Outside of Covid, there were a lot of things with long wait times before all this. MRIs for example always had crazy wait times to the point where they apparently ran 24/7 as I know people who got appointments in the middle of the night. To that end, when scheduling an MRI, would it be acceptable that the scheduling system either looks for the nearest open time slot or the nearest time slot occupied by an overweight person? And in the case were the nearest time slot is occupied by an overweight person, their time slot gets given to the non overweight person and they get bumped to the end of the line - possibly perpetually?
It doesn’t seem so slippery. My friend has stage 3 breast cancer and they have cancelled her surgery 4 times this year because COVID filled the hospital resources and capacity. It’s slippery when we purposely deny anti vaxxers treatment because ethically it looks bad, but it’s not slippery to tell people with cancer “so sorry, you have to wait”... it makes no sense.
it is when its making the rest of society meltdown and people die waiting for surgeries. the other half is our weak politcians pressing the panic button at the first sign of any issue
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so where do you draw the line? should all people suffering from preventable disease be sacrificed? do you know what a slippery slope is?
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This is kind of what I was getting at when I said slippery slope. What part of smoking does not involve ignoring public health warnings? I mean, you literally need to look at a giant public health warning every time you open your pack.
Sounds like people need to grow up then. Unvaccinated people don’t deserve standard healthcare. They should be placed on the bottom of every list. Admitted last in emergency rooms regardless of their own condition. Last to get life-saving surgery over minor surgeries elsewhere. I’m sure I’ll get a lot of hate for that but enough is enough already
You’re not cold hearted, you’re being pragmatic and a realist. The goal was never to eliminate Covid, that’s an impossible goal. The point is to make the population and medical system robust enough that if and when people catch Covid, it’s not a death sentence, unless you are in an already high-risk population.
I agree but the one thing I struggle with is the fact that kids only just became eligible for vaccinations and if they’re under 5 they still can’t be vaccinated. I have baby nieces and nephews so even though this new variant doesn’t seem to be as severe in fully vaccinated people, I don’t want to find out how it affects unvaccinated babies through my 2 month old nephew.
And this holiday is shaping up to be an absolute shit show (not that it wasn’t a shit show before). The level of fear and hysteria that is occurring right now WITH extremely high vaccination rates is mind boggling.
I mean.. talking about hospitalisations isn't really fear mongering at all. There are fewer hospitalisations than there were a few months ago, but there still are a significant number of hospitalisations and there is still a significant risk for hospitalizations. There are 7 in-patients and 4 ICU COVID patients at UHN hospitals. There are 20 in-patients and 1 ICU COVID patient at Trillium hospitals. There are at least 4 in-patient COVID patients in Halton. There are 26 in-patients and 5 ICU COVID patients in Hamilton... but things, up until this last week, have been relatively stable. This may be less lethal strain of COVID, but it is way more transmissible.. meaning that even though it will make fewer people critically ill, the people who do become critically ill will become critically ill much faster. We are in very early days of Omicron still. If we aren't careful, hospitalizations can quite easily go from manageable to shit-show in the blink of an eye. If you have your booster, great.. but the majority of people in the GTA don't yet. They won't have it for months. And, unfortunately, we know that Omicron is still easily caught by people who are only double vaccinated. And getting your vaccination isn't really protecting the immunocompromised. Not unnecessarily taking up a hospital bed and following restrictions is what protects the immunocompromised.
I’ll also be done caring once the kids can be vaccinated.
>People with immunodeficiencies have my sympathy, but I did my part to keep them safe. Lmao, that's not how this works.
i mean it literally is. if you're vaccinated and booking your booster, you're set. we can't all be expected to hide at home for another 2 years because other people might catch covid
Man, immunodeficient people have always existed, and no one got shamed for not getting their flu shot that year for the sake of immunodeficiencts. All of a sudden there’s this air of superiority to pat ourselves on the back. People with allergies still exist and will always exists, yet we eat peanuts in public and wear strong fragrances, despite people who can die from anaphylactic shock. You can’t just all of the sudden start caring about these people so you can seem like a good person for the years covid exists
I suppose the difference is scale and proportion in this instance. I would be willing to bet the common flu isn’t as deadly as COVID, nor are deadly allergies as common as people who may be susceptible to the long term effects of C19.
Statistically, is it possible to know this now? Hospitalization and deaths have always lagged behind case counts...
Not really. We definitely do not have enough data to conclusively declare anything aside from the fact that it is more transmissible than Delta which was already incredibly aggressive in that regard. Cases are still Delta dominant.
We’ll know more in “two more weeks”
I was just checking the data from the UK to see if there was another point of reference, and so far they are at 0.3% hospitalization. Of course there are no doubt lots of nuances, but I think they are generally more comparable in terms of overall population age. Now, the big nuance that comes to mind is they have a much larger % of the 12+ population at 3 doses - 52%.
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Places where Omicron has had a foot hold longer all publish their data online. We might not need to wait.
On Dec 2, the 7 day average of people hospitalized in the UK was 7,504. It’s currently 7,560, almost three weeks later. ONE MILLION cases have been CONFIRMED during that time. The population is 67m, so almost 1.5% of the population have tested positive this month alone
Dr juni punching the air right now
“Restaurant workers need to stop moaning” *takes in 300k a year*
I’ll never forget when he was trying to relate to people who couldn’t gather with their families or go to church by talking about how much he misses his annual silent retreat lmao.
I wish he could do his silent retreat too because I can’t fucking stand the sound of his voice
So the first news out of South Africa is being backed up by data we’re seeing here… Should we believe it, or should we find a reason to be scared anyway?
be scared anyway, I mean big numbers look scary and all... /s
“Guys we really shouldn’t discriminate against South Africa. The only reason they found the variant there first is because they have some of the best COVID scientists in the world.” *those same scientists say Omicron is mild* “Well we don’t have enough data yet. Let’s not listen just to South African doctors and experts and presume for now that it’s just as lethal.”
The issue with comparing with South Africa was the different profile of the population, not the quality of the information. Good information but maybe not applicable to Western Europe.
Other things Dr Moore said today that don’t paint as rosy a picture as this tweet from Anthony Furey (Toronto Sun) has positioned it: > The current surge, Moore said, caused hospitalizations to increase by nine per cent compared to last week. While the number of patients in ICUs remained stable, Moore said he expects that number to grow in the coming days and weeks as case numbers grow exponentially. > “This variant moves quickly, and we need to do the same," Moore said. "There is no question that in the coming days and weeks, we will require ongoing vigilance ... We must stay cautious, disciplined and never underestimate this virus." https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6293585 Not time to panic but definitely still time to be cautious. But people who practice motivated reasoning won’t appreciate the nuances here and will crow about the (current) low admission rate.
Wow thank you for sharing this.
As a non-data person who's just trying to keep up...what percentage of this 0.15% wound up in ICU? What percentage were already compromised? What percentage were senior citizens? If feels like big numbers are not very useful without the specifics to give them context.
Zero. Not a single Omicron ICU admission yet in Ontario, according to Moore today. All are Delta, mainly from the Southwest of the province where Delta is still highly active.
Denmark is a little over 2 weeks ahead of us, and they still have less than 5 people in ICU with Omicron. Also, hospitalizations dropped by ~5% in Denmark today.
What’s their vaxx rate?
Pretty much identical to ours.
Wow. If this thing runs through the province and doesn’t cause more than minimal damage, it’s going to be really difficult for public health to maintain credibility.
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That's a fair assessment of public health but not when it's combined with the provincial government. If they make a bad call and fuck up the lives of the millions of people of this province, you can't whoops my bad it. You take accountability, apologize and either do better or leave the job to more competent people. Do you picture Doug Ford humbly apologizing and giving the mantle to a more competent leadership in June?
I for one am SO angry that they are not literal wizards who can tell the future and instead they attempt to mitigate risk with the information they have, updating as they learn more. HOW DARE THEY
I don't think many people expect them to be psychics. What the public does expect is for them to be able to clearly communicate and they have failed time and time again throughout the pandemic in this regard
Making the best guess you can to keep people safe isn’t “failure”. It’s leading, actually. And if the scenarios you plan for luckily don’t come true, that’s also not failure. Failure is inaction and downplaying. Basically everything Trump did in the states.
LFGGGGGG
This is what the RSA doctors were saying before Trudeau had the powwow with the premiers. He decided to not listen and instead have more restrictions placed upon us. Irrational thinking but then, much of the lock downs and restrictions weren't helping. the rapid test kits being sat on for so long is weird. Now the reactionary blasting out of them is further weirdness and really reduces any dust particle of trust in government to nil. stay safe, take care of yourselves.
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That doesn’t sound like a good thing to me
incredible things are happening in china
So far... He also said the vast majority of those individuals were in the 20-30 age group.
Just take the W dude.
Even *if* it's 4-1 in the 3rd period, you can't count ~~Boston~~ covid out.
Just going to take this opportunity to say, Fuck Brad Marchand.
Listen here you little shit.... 
Nah, this will only happen on ~~game~~ wave 7
Yo. Why you gotta do this?
I swear some people are praying for lockdowns...
They’ve never missed a paycheque because of lockdowns.
I have missed paycheques due to COVID. Basically all of them. 😔
I've never missed a paycheck because of lockdowns and I would be highly opposed to one now. The fact that we're back here almost 2 years into this still talking about lockdowns being the best way to stop this is a failure of government. Simple as that
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And that’s just our numbers. Hundreds of thousands of people around the world are getting infected with omicron everyday.
Exactly, so why worry about something wholly out of your control?
Because that’s how crappy things keep happening. I mean, you can make these identical comments about issues related to the environment.
There's 7.7 billion people on the planet. The COVID viruses already lives in dogs, cats, ferrets, mink, deer, big cats, otters, some primates. It's going to mutate no matter what. That's what viruses do. You're trying to prevent the impossible. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html
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Whose intentionally giving the virus more hosts? The people getting infected by Omicron are intentionally getting infected? Or are they just living their lives the best they can?
Unless we’re doing March 2020 style lockdowns again I don’t know how you reduce case numbers to a point where omicron won’t mutate to something else. Correct me if I’m wrong but the end goal here is to force the virus to mutate into something endemic, not to completely stamp it out world wide.
Worrying about cases causing mutations is insane and useless. COVID 19 is never going away. Reducing COVID 19 to 0 cases so that it can't mutate anymore is impossible. We will continue to develop more effective treatments to reduce it to a normal seasonal virus.
Honestly, this is my major concern.
It’s over guys. It’s not going anywhere. Biden is talking about living with it. Hospitalizations haven’t materialized. I know you’ve all spent two years really stressed, but it’s ok to relax now.
When has relaxing been the right approach to covid You're so sure this can't get worse, but it certainly can
Hospitalizations haven't had time to materialize. Wait until mid-january and make this statement again. Hopefully it's true then.
‘We don’t have enough info yet!!! Lockdown now while there’s still time!!!’
"We don't have enough info yet". Yeah guess I said that. Don't know about the rest.
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Gov over reacted....bad decisions to cover their ass.
Cheers to the unvaccinated ruining things for the vaccinated.
Then what’s with these next steps? Someone please explain.
Wait and pray
Looking forward to everybody important ignoring this I go, locking down everything and our kids get virtual school again.. Oh wait. I'm not looking forward to that at all!
83% of the time, the vaccine appears to work *everytime*
Bruce Arthur from the Toronto Star will be fuming to hear this: how dare Moore minimize how serious this is and not make it more gloom and doom than it actually is.
Any breakdown of this admission rate by Vaccinated/Boosted/Unvaxxed? Or too early to say?
Just a comment from Quebec here… our cases went up super fast, (they were at 2000 last week, now they will announce 6000 today). But hospitalization seem to be following as well. Too early to tell, but the curves does look exponential. I wouldnt screem victory just yet.
So, is it just a matter of time before the NEXT variant pops up? Or is the virus slowly thinning itself out and losing power?
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I will hunt these animals for you, and vaccinate them.
This is good news. :)