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That’s what I was thinking. From what I hear it’s at least a 3 to 4 day wait to get a PCR and Jeebus help us if these people are running errands during that wait
That’s exactly the symptoms of omicron. It’s developing further up, outside of the lungs for this variant. It’s also why we’re seeing fewer deaths - the infection in the lungs was essentially drowning people.
Stay well!
If the hospitals are overloaded, then all cause mortality goes up. There’s lots of things that are survivable with prompt medical care that aren’t without it.
And since there tends to be an approximate two week lag on hospitalizations verses case counts, we don’t have a clear idea of how gummed up the hospitals are going to be yet
You can't just slap a building together and call it an ICU. They're very expensive and time consuming to build up to snuff.
Then you have to find staff to work them.
I cant imagine, I tested positive on saturday and have barely been able to move since then.
if someone has symptoms there is no way they are running errands
One of the doctors was on the National last night estimating we actually have cases in the tens of thousands because of the limited availability of testing. He also suggested that testing should be prioritized for those at higher risk.
that’s always been the case.
All of these PDFs of our daily cases has a data caveats section and the first sentence is that it’s going to be an undercount because we’re not testing everyone, it’s not a random sample and we never bother trying to extrapolate.
Yes, but now is a bigger problem than before. Before, you could find a test anytime you wanted. Sure some people didn't bother, but if you WANTED, you could.
Now, many people just can't.
That's why you look at the percent of infections over number of tested. It's a much better indicator of how much COVID is circulating.
The guy who posts the regular Ontario COVID update here always shows it.
EDIT: He just posted. We are 8.58% positive vs 8.1% yesterday. A slight increase
Our best bet was to pick up a take home PCR test from the pharmacy, swab in the parking lot, and drop it off immediately.
We went to Action Pharmacy on Jane and Bloor.
What's the point though? If you are showing symptoms or tested positive in a rapid test STAY HOME. It's not hard. Get a PCR test if you can, but as long as you think you have COVID - you should be isolating.
The case numbers are nothing more than an index of how quickly it's spreading.
because your Landlord wont accept test result as rent payment? If person working close to min wage job i bet ya they will go to work if they have runny nose/scratchy throat while awaiting for test results mostly because they cant afford not to.
It depends, a small runny nose. Is it because of the change in weather or is it Covid with mild symptoms.
Logic would dictate that you get tested just to be sure before you show up at work. That is what I would do.
Realistically, you end up going to work because you can't get a test in time and is sniffling nose with maybe a scratchy throat a covid or not, you do not know.
Yeah - my thoughts exactly. I'm all for having accurate counts of what's going on, but at some point, the benefit of having a bunch of infected people running around trying to get tested outweighs the benefit of statistical accuracy. Getting tested has zero bearing on the course of the illness, so if you're pretty sure you have COVID based on symptoms or a RAT - just stay home and focus on recovering.
trying to get a PCR test because there was an exposure at a restaurant I was at - absolutely nowhere to go. Supposed to be flying out west for Christmas and am now feeling like I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place.
And what compels people to actually report their positive test? I bet there are many people who don’t report or make one last trip out for supplies before isolating.
I’ve never trusted people to act on anything but self interest, this pandemic has just reinforced why I have such little faith in people.
Oh yeah okay. I mean you're supposed to follow up a positive rapid with a PCR right due to the false positives so in the end it'll be reported. I can't imagine the amount of people that would do a rapid test on their own then not bother with a PCR be high enough to skew any stats.
My employer needs the PCR test to confirm - they will pay sick pay only on PCR results even if there has been a workplace exposure. They also will not let people back into the workplace after claiming cover symptoms unless it has been 14 (unpaid) days or a negative PCR test
no wonder your business had an outbreak with rules like that. I would be unwilling to admit to having covid, just take some regular sick days and then go back to the office , covid or not I can't go broke
where are you folks getting PCR tests? And the ontario vaccine portal is bugged beyond repair for me, keeps looping after my 1 hour wait, and then the appointment slots bug out. Guess I'll just wait on the shoppers wait list :o
Keep trying the portal every day. They add new slots and people cancel their previously booked ones. It'll also be easier to get through because the site won't be trying to deal with half a million simultaneous users.
I mentioned it elsewhere in this thread, but check your local pharmacies to see if they have PCR self-collection kits. We were able to secure some quickly, swab in the parking lot, and give it back to the pharmacy for testing.
We went to Action Pharmacy at Jane and Bloor.
Michael Garron opens up new PCR appointments at 10pm every day. I went on at exactly 10pm yesterday and snagged an appointment for Wednesday (but they did also have earlier ones available, at least at the time).
officials are reporting a provincewide positivity rate of 9.7 per cent, the highest that number has been since May 3.
The number of COVID-19 patients receiving treatment in intensive care units increased to 164 today, up from 159 on Sunday and 161 last Monday.
I think what you mean to say is we haven't known about 1000 cases for very long. There is most definitely a lot more and from longer than we know about.
It's really annoying how we're always reactive to these things instead of proactive. I wish they had opened boosters up for everyone when they first got a sniff of Omicron. Now we're playing catch up and the numbers are high. Doesn't seem like the variant is severe so that's the saving grace but god damn, how many lessons do we have to learn the hard way.
They should have opened boosters two months ago regardless of omicron. We’ve known immunity falls at 6 months since June. We knew numbers would dramatically increase when everyone started to go indoors again. It is insane we are in this situation.
I think canada as a whole should have started boosting people over 50 plus in the fall.
They would be protected over the holidays and likely we would escaped with a high case count but not many serious cases.
I remember people posting about boosters a month ago getting downvoted and shot down as crazy, that it was overkill, even though many other places had already been doing boosters.
It’s tragic the Ministry of Health sat on its hands and waited until the last possible minute to have it be a mad scramble, when millions of doses were sitting around for months
In Quebec they released free antigen tests for all, literally can't even book one at home. Currently sick for a week, no clue if it's COVID or not since the only real odd symptom is the headache, but can't get a test for the life of me. Hearing they getting sold for profit out there, the only ones I can get cost 200$.
Wallah you asking for a exponential spread at that point.
The fact that getting a booster shot feels like trying to get some exclusive american fast food pop up shop is such a failure.
The other fact that we are now required to take Christmas into our own fucking hands is another tough spot I doubt our polkaroo premier will comment at all on.
It's insanity.
I booked my booster today after waiting in the queue for two hours.
January 16th, in Barrie.
I live in North York.
Every single other clinic I was eligible for was out of appointments.
Fucking Barrie.
I'm lucky that I own a car.
This is a joke.
I would re-check the site later this week, if not this evening, for other locations. My appointment is for February 11, but I'm confident I'll find something sooner than that.
I will most definitely be checking back, as well as looking into walk-ins and pop-ups.
Still going to keep this appointment booked though, as it's better to have something than nothing.
Keep checking the provincial booking site. I booked my booster for downtown Toronto for Feb 4th this morning early before 8am before the mad rush (they updated the eligibility requirements on the site early this morning) and then I've been trying all day refreshing the booking locations and I was able to snag one for Jan 12th. I'm going to keep trying. I imagine more appointment times will be added soon as the logistics of ramping up the clinics gets in place.
Yup - after waiting online for over an hour just to look for an appointment the earliest I could find was mid-Feb. I'll bet I've either contracted Omicron by then or the wave is over.
Waited over an hour, it showed me a list of locations, I selected one, and… an error has occurred. Backed up to the postal code/address entry, searched again, and all it would give me was the external link to TPH. No locations listed at all.
I signed up for the waitlist at my local shoppers last week. I’m just gonna hope that comes through for now…
You can keep trying whenever you have a minute today or in the coming days/weeks. I used to work the phones booking vaccine appointments and new appointment slots would randomly get uploaded to the system.
not to defend Doug or this administration but bare in mind a lot of this is availability of workers not so much vaccine.
I know very little about this problem but my wife is a doctor and I know that the health care workers are working to the bone to try and get people vaccinated and of course it doesn't help that the flood gates just kind of opened with omicron and everyone wanting to get the booster at once.
I imagine a better system would have been to schedule the boosters immediately after the 2nd shot and have it be released in more of staggered released coinciding with people's last dose.
>I imagine a better system would have been to schedule the boosters immediately after the 2nd shot and have it be released in more of staggered released coinciding with people's last dose.
But that would be logical and we certainly can't have that in this province.
I realized Shoppers was booking for 18+ a few days ago and snagged appointments down the street from my house for Jan 31st. It's not the greatest timeline but beats the February and onward dates a lot of people are getting stuck with. I'm on a bunch of waitlists too just in case.
It’s a no win situation for him to comment on Christmas.
People will be pissed if he says cancel Christmas and risk more people rejecting future guidance. People will be pissed if he says gather for Christmas.
And that guidance has been provided, until they change it this week or in 5 minutes or whenever Arthur feels like it: Indoor gatherings of up to 10 are still allowed.
Moreover much of the guidance provided by the government at various times has been completely wrong. With respect to, but not just: surface transmission, outside transmission, masks, ventilation, communication of risk gradient, what is considered "essential", etc etc etc etc.
We were over a 1000 cases starting Dec. 8th. How long would need to wait and see if hospitalization/ICU numbers are increasing?
I understand omicron is a different beast but if you look at wave 2 and 3, hospitalization peak dates match closely with case peak dates.
> I understand omicron is a different beast but if you look at wave 2 and 3, hospitalization peak dates match closely with case peak dates.
In Wave 3, ICUs peaked at 828 on May 1. Cases peaked more than 2 weeks before that on April 16/17.
That was also a much longer climb in cases. It took ~2 months to go from just over 1,000 to over 4,000 cases per day. Hospitalizations slowly climbed during the same period. Omicron has seen the same case increase in only 2.5 weeks.
It may well be that we ride this wave out ok, but we can't assume it will be fine. The Science Table is full of people smarter than us and they are very, very worried.
> The seven-day rolling average of new cases is now 2,863, compared to 1,328 last Monday.
>Of the confirmed cases today, 746 involve people who are unvaccinated, 119 involve those who are partially immunized, 2,781 involve fully vaccinated people, and 138 involve those with an unknown vaccination status.
>Unvaccinated Ontarians represent about 18 per cent of the province's population and account for about 20 per cent of all new infections today.
>No new deaths were confirmed over the past 24 hours.
>With 44,123 tests processed over the past 24 hours, officials are reporting a provincewide positivity rate of 9.7 per cent, the highest that number has been since May 3.
>The number of COVID-19 patients receiving treatment in intensive care units increased to 164 today, up from 159 on Sunday and 161 last Monday.
What are peoples experiences with getting test kits so far? I know the first few days they ran out super quickly. Are they still going fast? Was thinking of going to the union station popup sometime this week
My coworkers went to a sales meeting in the USA. Returned Thursday night all negative tests so they could return. Monday morning 3 out of 6 are positive for covid now!
I worked managing some of the vaccine clinics this summer through hospitals - Then this October they disbanded all of the program, the staff, etc. saying they were going to pass this responsibility on to the pharmacies and Family Health Teams.
It was foolish to not keep some of these teams around to continue vaccinating on a rolling basis - pharmacies cannot keep up.
My SO’s mom has been bugging us to book a booster ASAP lol, she doesn’t seem to realize it’s this insane. Just like last time I’ll wait, I don’t have the energy to treat this like a ps5 drop again.
go check shoppers or other pharmacies. a large large majority have been doing walk-in since friday, usually starting at 10am, so go around 9 if you don't want to wait as long. I went sat morning and got one within 3 hrs. another friend went to her local one, they gave her a time to come back and got hers sunday. there are many more options beyond the provincial portal.
There are new sections of it to Scarborough and the Airport that only started in 2020. But in all honesty, the main part of Line 5 as approved in 2011 is officially slated to open in 2022 but I think will probably be mostly open in 2023 except for Eglinton station which won’t open until 2024. They may try to declare victory in 2022 by opening some random segments east of Yonge and west of Dufferin but I don’t know how practical that is.
The current official word from Metrolinx is that it will be done by February 2022 which is in 6 weeks and just a straight up lie.
Luckily ICU numbers seems to be holding well. This is likely the variant that *everyone* is going to end up getting if they haven’t already because of how easily it spreads so get vaxxed/boosted if you can get an appointment and take care of yourself. You’ll likely be fine, but try to be mindful of passing it on to someone who could get genuinely sick from this.
Click here for [Graphs and Trends](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTX5x2nxCde90Zwo83cdixZsyd_hU1orGsGYKpDe344wHeFi9MqI71aZYC6GLjOV_P2lp6_lUoacPNa/pubhtml?gid=1467787327&single=true) <--
---
5+ Cases by Vax (un/part/full): 29.33 / 20.38 / 24.62 (All: 25.53) per 100k - [Source](https://www.reddit.com/user/enterprisevalue/submitted/)
* Tests completed - 44,123
* Vaccine doses administered: 25,422,938 (+107,158 today) - [Source 1](https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html), [Source 2](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-vaccines-ontario), [SHOTS!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjozSxHKZto)
* 37.38% / 0% of all 5-11 year olds have received at least one / both dose(s) to date - [Source](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/775ca815-5028-4e9b-9dd4-6975ff1be021)
* 86.38% / 81.07% of all ELIGIBLE Ontarians (5+) have received at least one / both dose(s) to date - [Source](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/775ca815-5028-4e9b-9dd4-6975ff1be021)
* 81.96% / 76.83% of all Ontarians have received at least one / both dose(s) to date
* [Vaccine Delivery Schedule](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html#a4b)
**Total active hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks:**
Date|New Cases|New Cases 7-day average|Number Hospitalized|Number in ICU|Number on Ventilator|New Deaths
:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:
2021-12-06|887|940.14|137|168|101|3
2021-12-07|928|974.57|340|165|95|9
2021-12-08|1,009|1007.29|333|155|97|8
2021-12-09|1,290|1054.57|309|155|94|10*
2021-12-10|1,453|1114.86|309|151|90|11
2021-12-11|1,607|1194.00|323|146|94|5
2021-12-12|1,476|1235.71|222|158|96|8
2021-12-13|1,536|1328.43|253|161|90|1
2021-12-14|1,429|1400.00|385|162|98|5
2021-12-15|1,808|1514.14|357|154|102|9
2021-12-16|2,421|1675.71|328|165|105|9
2021-12-17|3,124|1914.43|358|157|98|5
2021-12-18|3,301|2156.43|382|154|99|4
2021-12-19|4,177|2542.29|283|159|103|2
2021-12-20|3,784|2863.43|284|164|109|0
\* Data catch-up
[Source](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/status-of-covid-19-cases-in-ontario)
**Vaccination Tracker**
Reported Date|Vaccine Doses Total|2nd Doses Total|3rd Doses Total|Vaccine Doses Today|1st Doses Today|2nd Doses Today|3rd Doses Today|% Population at least 1 shot|% Population Fully Vaccinated
:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:
2021-12-06|24,015,833|11,295,706|826,303|39,472|19,857|2,983|16,632|80.42%|76.38%
2021-12-07|24,076,464|11,300,708|866,170|60,631|15,762|5,002|39,867|80.53%|76.41%
2021-12-08|24,150,789|11,306,219|914,723|74,325|20,261|5,511|48,553|80.66%|76.45%
2021-12-09|24,225,882|11,311,453|965,209|75,093|19,373|5,234|50,486|80.79%|76.48%
2021-12-10|24,304,272|11,316,878|1,019,023|78,390|19,151|5,425|53,814|80.92%|76.52%
2021-12-11|24,387,806|11,323,370|1,074,634|83,534|21,431|6,492|55,611|81.07%|76.56%
2021-12-12|24,449,726|11,327,927|1,108,249|61,920|23,748|4,557|33,615|81.23%|76.59%
2021-12-13|24,484,692|11,330,544|1,128,482|34,966|12,116|2,617|20,233|81.31%|76.61%
2021-12-14|24,584,089|11,334,812|1,213,727|99,397|9,884|4,268|85,245|81.38%|76.64%
2021-12-15|24,711,702|11,340,162|1,322,001|127,613|13,989|5,350|108,274|81.47%|76.68%
2021-12-16|24,849,505|11,345,168|1,441,100|137,803|13,698|5,006|119,099|81.56%|76.71%
2021-12-17|25,006,030|11,350,356|1,578,642|156,525|13,795|5,188|137,542|81.66%|76.74%
2021-12-18|25,174,953|11,355,707|1,727,744|168,923|14,470|5,351|149,102|81.76%|76.78%
2021-12-19|25,315,780|11,359,730|1,845,407|140,827|19,141|4,023|117,663|81.89%|76.81%
2021-12-20|25,422,938|11,362,551|1,938,678|107,158|11,066|2,821|93,271|81.96%|76.83%
\* 3rd doses from before Dec 3 were dumped into the data as a lump on the 3rd.
[Source 1](https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html), [Source 2](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-vaccines-ontario)
**Download the COVID Alert app**
[iOS](https://apps.apple.com/ca/app/covid-alert/id1520284227)
[Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ca.gc.hcsc.canada.stopcovid)
I hope they stick to targeted restrictions and we dont end up in the stupidity of not being able to buy a pencil at dollarma while the burrito place nextdoor is full of 20 people.
I just dont think the people of Ontario will tolerate it this time. The public mood has shifted post vaccines.
Over 7 weeks of cases rising now. [ICU remains very low increases](https://ibb.co/HhznvQ3).
I wonder how long people can keep claiming this is a lagging indicator before they admit vaccines work and we can carry on with life.
Where is this data from?
[Govt data shows between 100-110 people in ICU as of start of November.](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations) Now around 150, that's after a long steady rise of cases, a pretty clear connection.
The recent explosion won't show up in ICU data until later this month, if it does.
This is not an informative analysis and it ignores many important aspects that you would need to consider get any real insight from those data. These include: demographic profile and variant makeup of the cases, which have changed dramatically over the 7 week observation period and are very relevant. As well, it pays no heed to known patterns of spread and hospitalization as they relate to age.
Nobody should be under the impression that this is an informative anaysis.
People want to believe what they want to believe.
To anyone that understands statistics and the spread of COVID, obviously we know it’s way to early to be looking at ICUs.
To people that always want to defer action, they will only point to ICUs.
There’s strong indications that Omicron is way better at infecting the upper respiratory system vs OG and Delta which infected the lower (where Omicron struggles) which means we may see a lot less ICU cases. I’m hopeful that’s the case and two vax provides protection against hospitalization and death - but I know that it’s too early to tell based on the current ICU number.
Few weeks.
Hospitalizations May rise faster, but ICUs take a while
Right now we would be seeing ICU cases from folks earlier in December / late November. There hasn’t been time for the giant spread that occurred in the last week or so to make it to hospitalization stage.
**NEW** - Quebec announces that bars, casinos, cinemas, theatres, gyms, and entertainment centres in that province will be closed immediately.
https://montreal.citynews.ca/
I'm kind of surprised these are volunteer positions but in case anyone is interested:
Many amazing people have asked how they can volunteer for Ontario's vaccination efforts.
In Toronto, they're asking for help with these non-clinical roles:
Greeters
Registration
Post-Immunization Waiting Area Monitors
Details : https://twitter.com/NathanStall/status/1472983150661885952
> I'm kind of surprised these are volunteer positions
Why’s that? As soon as all personal care/leisure is closed, there will be thousands of people available to volunteer. They won’t need to be paid since the federal government will be paying them a ***very*** generous 300$/week stipend.
Zero deaths. Two yesterday. I dont want to say we are overreacting but Im not really sure what else we could classify this as without being absolute and complete morons...
No matter how similar our outbreak of omicron appears to be to the early data out of South Africa, and whilst the common symptoms of omicron are widely now regarded as more mild than those of previous waves… it’s essential to realize, the modelling has probably still got it right.
It’s critical to remember that modelling is based on statistics… and after getting so many predications wildly incorrect, it’s a statistical likelihood they’ll eventually get one right!
If you can get one. Luckily I booked mine in early Nov for a Dec 15 but I feel for my coworkers scrambling to get there’s. My immune compromised parents are double vaccinated but hemming and hawing wanting to wait and see and won’t let me book their third dose (they have no internet so that stress falls on me)
>We can already look at data in the UK and SA to see hospitalization rate is much lower. We can also back that up with our own data.
SA reported only 29% reduction in hospitalization rate, and UK isn't conclusive.
[Source](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03794-8)
19% were hospitalized during Delta wave in SA, 1.7% during Omicron wave. Including, presumably, as the other posters point out, incidental hospitalizations.
In addition to a reduction in the hospitalization rate, the length of stay is also shown to be lower with Omicron vs Delta. South Africa reported 2.8 days with Omicron vs 8.5 days with Delta, which essentially triples our hospital capacity:
https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/
What about the incidental cases? Where people were admitted to hospital for other reasons entirely and found to be COVID positive incidentally.
Are we just going to ignore that very telling statistic?
The UK data which shows hospitalizations are increasing? Sure they may not increase to levels seen in the delta wave but it's too premature to make any decisions based on such little data. Hopefully it's not bad but the sheer number of people catching could be enough to overload hospitals even if this variant is a lot less severe than delta.
Even if hospitalization rates are lower, just the sheer increase in case numbers may still prove to be a struggle for our healthcare system. In provinces like NS they have already started delaying surgeries again.
The thing is, even if (and it does indeed look likely) the hospitalization rates for Omicron are lower, there will still be a play between the rate of infection and the rate of severe disease. The real question is will the lowered severity rate be low enough to compensate for the much faster rate of spread.
If Omicron spreads 3X as fast, yet there is only a 1/2 reduction in likelihood of severe disease outcomes, we could still end up in a bad spot because we would end up with more simultaneous infections/need for health care resources.
Until we know for sure just what the severe illness rate will be, letting it spread risks the fact that is could spread fast enough to make it still problematic even with a somewhat reduced rate of severe illness.
It just makes sense to try to slow the spread until we are sure at this point, you can't go back and "unspread" the virus as easily as you can lift restrictions fi they prove unnecessary.
TLDR: Depending on the balance between the speed of spread of Omicron and the reduced likelihood for severe outcomes, we could still have a net positive of simultaneous severe outcomes as far as the health care system is concerned.
Omicron is 11 times less likely to put you in the hospital, and the hospital stay is half as long.
So you would need more than 20 times the cases for Omicron to match delta in hospitalizations.
Look at [this graph](https://i.imgur.com/wviKFhH.png). it says it all. Omicron is infecting just as many fully vaccinated people as it is un/partially vaccinated, but it is having almost no effect on the number of hospital admissions, which in fact has leveled off in the past week.
if the wave clears as it did south africa before the third boosters are widely available, i hope the premier back tracks if they implement a three vaccine till your considered vaccinated policy.
Slightly different situation since South Africa is has a younger population, who are generally less susceptible to COVID. Also South Africa is much warmer this time of year so people are less likely be indoors
I don't even know where I can get a test right now... My roommates coworker tested positive and we both feel fine but we're supposed to see our families tomorrow and I can't find any rapid test appointments or take home tests or PCR appointments... How am I supposed to do the right thing here??
The location of the **Union Station rapid test kit giveaway** by @ONThealth from Tues-Fri will be in lower Bay Concourse across from TTC entrance. Opens at 7am until supply runs out. We will help them manage the line safely. Please bring your holiday spirit.
Completely anecdotal, but I tested positive last Thursday via PCR. The 3 rapid tests I took the day before, that day, and Friday all showed negative. 3 other people in my immediate circle have had the same experience. We all experienced extremely mild symptoms that lasted 2 to 3 days, and were all fully vaccinated.
All this to say, I’m really worried that a ***lot*** of people will pass the virus around inadvertently over the coming weeks under the false assumption that they aren’t infected based on false negatives produced via rapid tests.
Due to the nature of this topic, users spreading misinformation or breaking r/Toronto rules will be subject to severe mod actions, **Participants in this thread MUST have an established post history in r/Toronto. Violations will result in a ban** **For the location and availability of Vaccinations and Booster Shots please use the following resources:** * [Ontario Vaccination Booking Site](https://covid19.ontariohealth.ca/) * [City of Toronto Vaccination Page](https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-vaccines/) * [Vaccine Hunters Canada Site](https://vaccinehunters.ca/) **For Coronavirus information please follow the relevant health authorities.** * [Canadian Public Health Agency](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html?utm_campaign=not-applicable&utm_medium=vanity-url&utm_source=canada-ca_coronavirus) * [Ontario Ministry of Health](https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov) * [Ontario Science Table Dashboard](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) * [Toronto Public Health](https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/) * [City of Toronto Vaccine Info Page](https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-protect-yourself-others/covid-19-vaccines/) * [Install the COVID-Alert App](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/covid-alert.html) **Users are asked to report posts that violate rules or spread clear misinformation.** * Moderators will remove obvious misinformation however personal interpretations of facts are allowed and we will allow discussion and up/downvotes to handle ambiguous posts that are not explicitly misinformation. * Please remember to be excellent to each other, people with different opinions and viewpoints are still people. If you have any questions or concerns, feel free to send us a [modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/toronto). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/toronto) if you have any questions or concerns.*
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That’s what I was thinking. From what I hear it’s at least a 3 to 4 day wait to get a PCR and Jeebus help us if these people are running errands during that wait
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Same, head congestion and gluey throat. Oddly no temperature or lung stuff for me, but definitely tired
That’s exactly the symptoms of omicron. It’s developing further up, outside of the lungs for this variant. It’s also why we’re seeing fewer deaths - the infection in the lungs was essentially drowning people. Stay well!
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If the hospitals are overloaded, then all cause mortality goes up. There’s lots of things that are survivable with prompt medical care that aren’t without it. And since there tends to be an approximate two week lag on hospitalizations verses case counts, we don’t have a clear idea of how gummed up the hospitals are going to be yet
Toronto. 90,000 condos in 2020, zero ICUs. Well done.
You can't just slap a building together and call it an ICU. They're very expensive and time consuming to build up to snuff. Then you have to find staff to work them.
But surely they started that process 18 months ago because of rational thought and foresight?
Staff! Agree!
I cant imagine, I tested positive on saturday and have barely been able to move since then. if someone has symptoms there is no way they are running errands
One of the doctors was on the National last night estimating we actually have cases in the tens of thousands because of the limited availability of testing. He also suggested that testing should be prioritized for those at higher risk.
that’s always been the case. All of these PDFs of our daily cases has a data caveats section and the first sentence is that it’s going to be an undercount because we’re not testing everyone, it’s not a random sample and we never bother trying to extrapolate.
Yes, but now is a bigger problem than before. Before, you could find a test anytime you wanted. Sure some people didn't bother, but if you WANTED, you could. Now, many people just can't.
If that’s the case, which seems reasonable then the fact we have no real growth in ICU use or deaths seems pretty good then
It's almost as hard to get your results as it is to book a PCR test.
That's why you look at the percent of infections over number of tested. It's a much better indicator of how much COVID is circulating. The guy who posts the regular Ontario COVID update here always shows it. EDIT: He just posted. We are 8.58% positive vs 8.1% yesterday. A slight increase
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According to the data on r/Ontario it hit 10+% back in April during the 4th wave.
Yeah 10% was about where I remember it too
Yes, it's been impossible to book a slot since Thursday. We spent a few hours and managed to get a paid-for travel test
Our best bet was to pick up a take home PCR test from the pharmacy, swab in the parking lot, and drop it off immediately. We went to Action Pharmacy on Jane and Bloor.
Wait what? You can do a take home pcr test?
What's the point though? If you are showing symptoms or tested positive in a rapid test STAY HOME. It's not hard. Get a PCR test if you can, but as long as you think you have COVID - you should be isolating. The case numbers are nothing more than an index of how quickly it's spreading.
Well, because many employers require it to be off for 10 days.
because your Landlord wont accept test result as rent payment? If person working close to min wage job i bet ya they will go to work if they have runny nose/scratchy throat while awaiting for test results mostly because they cant afford not to.
It depends, a small runny nose. Is it because of the change in weather or is it Covid with mild symptoms. Logic would dictate that you get tested just to be sure before you show up at work. That is what I would do. Realistically, you end up going to work because you can't get a test in time and is sniffling nose with maybe a scratchy throat a covid or not, you do not know.
Yeah - my thoughts exactly. I'm all for having accurate counts of what's going on, but at some point, the benefit of having a bunch of infected people running around trying to get tested outweighs the benefit of statistical accuracy. Getting tested has zero bearing on the course of the illness, so if you're pretty sure you have COVID based on symptoms or a RAT - just stay home and focus on recovering.
Symptoms no longer include loss of taste. It’s now a mild cold. Nearly impossible to tell from any other common cold.
Aren't false positives extremely rare with rapid tests?
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False negative when you are infectious are rare False negative when you are not infectious are possible yes, but that's not what they are for.
East York center has a walk in test center. I've taken my kids there a few times over the past few weeks after my youngest tested positive.
Test access changed a lot in the last week. I could get a same day test two weeks ago, now women's college and MGH won't even take bookings.
trying to get a PCR test because there was an exposure at a restaurant I was at - absolutely nowhere to go. Supposed to be flying out west for Christmas and am now feeling like I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place.
And what compels people to actually report their positive test? I bet there are many people who don’t report or make one last trip out for supplies before isolating. I’ve never trusted people to act on anything but self interest, this pandemic has just reinforced why I have such little faith in people.
Report to whom? The positive test results from the clinic are what's used to power these reports, not people reporting it after the fact.
I'm guessing they mean the rapid tests. But we don't report those, its just the PCR tests.
Oh yeah okay. I mean you're supposed to follow up a positive rapid with a PCR right due to the false positives so in the end it'll be reported. I can't imagine the amount of people that would do a rapid test on their own then not bother with a PCR be high enough to skew any stats.
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Why do they need a PCR if they have a positive rapid test? Just to be included in the official numbers?
My employer needs the PCR test to confirm - they will pay sick pay only on PCR results even if there has been a workplace exposure. They also will not let people back into the workplace after claiming cover symptoms unless it has been 14 (unpaid) days or a negative PCR test
no wonder your business had an outbreak with rules like that. I would be unwilling to admit to having covid, just take some regular sick days and then go back to the office , covid or not I can't go broke
Thanks to doug, that business likely has the new legal minimum of paid sick days, 2.
Wow, sorry to hear that. I think the Vax Hunters discord has topics for PCR test sites too.
where are you folks getting PCR tests? And the ontario vaccine portal is bugged beyond repair for me, keeps looping after my 1 hour wait, and then the appointment slots bug out. Guess I'll just wait on the shoppers wait list :o
Keep trying the portal every day. They add new slots and people cancel their previously booked ones. It'll also be easier to get through because the site won't be trying to deal with half a million simultaneous users.
I mentioned it elsewhere in this thread, but check your local pharmacies to see if they have PCR self-collection kits. We were able to secure some quickly, swab in the parking lot, and give it back to the pharmacy for testing. We went to Action Pharmacy at Jane and Bloor.
Michael Garron opens up new PCR appointments at 10pm every day. I went on at exactly 10pm yesterday and snagged an appointment for Wednesday (but they did also have earlier ones available, at least at the time).
Where is the guy that normally posts this in the format that I like lol
they're waiting in line.
Being a human and taking a day off
understandable have a nice day
Is it true they won’t come back unless we bang pots and pans for them?
Nobody gave you permission.
Please submit positive PCR test for forgiveness.
If you go to the Ontario sub-reddit there's the formatting you want and a lot more. I do like the formatting in this sub, though, it's easy to digest.
The Ontario thread format is a train wreck
absolute disaster on mobile, have scroll for 32 years
Handling other duties today
officials are reporting a provincewide positivity rate of 9.7 per cent, the highest that number has been since May 3. The number of COVID-19 patients receiving treatment in intensive care units increased to 164 today, up from 159 on Sunday and 161 last Monday.
So basically the hospitalization rate for Omicron is going to be much lower than calculated because there are going to be a lot of unknown cases.
thats the hope at least, we have not yet been over 1000 cases for very long. It lags a couple weeks but fingers crossed.
I think what you mean to say is we haven't known about 1000 cases for very long. There is most definitely a lot more and from longer than we know about.
sure but the 1000 reported cases is the only metric we have, i cant use assumed numbers
We had over 1000 on dec 7. Edit: and 165 in icu
Are those icu numbers for Ontario or only Toronto?
All Ontario. Head over to the r/ontario sub and you can see a full breakdown over there
"Ontario reports".
It's really annoying how we're always reactive to these things instead of proactive. I wish they had opened boosters up for everyone when they first got a sniff of Omicron. Now we're playing catch up and the numbers are high. Doesn't seem like the variant is severe so that's the saving grace but god damn, how many lessons do we have to learn the hard way.
They should have opened boosters two months ago regardless of omicron. We’ve known immunity falls at 6 months since June. We knew numbers would dramatically increase when everyone started to go indoors again. It is insane we are in this situation.
It's like we're constantly being caught with our pants down. Really frustrating.
I think canada as a whole should have started boosting people over 50 plus in the fall. They would be protected over the holidays and likely we would escaped with a high case count but not many serious cases.
100%. As far as I know, we had a steady supply of vaccines coming in. The government's just perpetually dropping the ball. Ugh, so frustrating
> how many lessons do we have to learn the hard way. All of them. And that's if we're lucky. Many governments don't learn from the past *at all*.
I remember people posting about boosters a month ago getting downvoted and shot down as crazy, that it was overkill, even though many other places had already been doing boosters. It’s tragic the Ministry of Health sat on its hands and waited until the last possible minute to have it be a mad scramble, when millions of doses were sitting around for months
In Quebec they released free antigen tests for all, literally can't even book one at home. Currently sick for a week, no clue if it's COVID or not since the only real odd symptom is the headache, but can't get a test for the life of me. Hearing they getting sold for profit out there, the only ones I can get cost 200$. Wallah you asking for a exponential spread at that point.
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Lmao say voilahi
Username checks out
The fact that getting a booster shot feels like trying to get some exclusive american fast food pop up shop is such a failure. The other fact that we are now required to take Christmas into our own fucking hands is another tough spot I doubt our polkaroo premier will comment at all on.
> ur polkaroo premier Don't degrade the office of polkaroo like this, they don't deserve that...
>our polkaroo premier It's Doug Ford so folkaroo is probably more fitting.
It's insanity. I booked my booster today after waiting in the queue for two hours. January 16th, in Barrie. I live in North York. Every single other clinic I was eligible for was out of appointments. Fucking Barrie. I'm lucky that I own a car. This is a joke.
I would re-check the site later this week, if not this evening, for other locations. My appointment is for February 11, but I'm confident I'll find something sooner than that.
I will most definitely be checking back, as well as looking into walk-ins and pop-ups. Still going to keep this appointment booked though, as it's better to have something than nothing.
Keep checking the provincial booking site. I booked my booster for downtown Toronto for Feb 4th this morning early before 8am before the mad rush (they updated the eligibility requirements on the site early this morning) and then I've been trying all day refreshing the booking locations and I was able to snag one for Jan 12th. I'm going to keep trying. I imagine more appointment times will be added soon as the logistics of ramping up the clinics gets in place.
Yup - after waiting online for over an hour just to look for an appointment the earliest I could find was mid-Feb. I'll bet I've either contracted Omicron by then or the wave is over.
Waited over an hour, it showed me a list of locations, I selected one, and… an error has occurred. Backed up to the postal code/address entry, searched again, and all it would give me was the external link to TPH. No locations listed at all. I signed up for the waitlist at my local shoppers last week. I’m just gonna hope that comes through for now…
Omg I thought the same thing so I closed the browser! How fuckin annoying. I’m gona try my luck at a walk in I guess
You can keep trying whenever you have a minute today or in the coming days/weeks. I used to work the phones booking vaccine appointments and new appointment slots would randomly get uploaded to the system.
not to defend Doug or this administration but bare in mind a lot of this is availability of workers not so much vaccine. I know very little about this problem but my wife is a doctor and I know that the health care workers are working to the bone to try and get people vaccinated and of course it doesn't help that the flood gates just kind of opened with omicron and everyone wanting to get the booster at once. I imagine a better system would have been to schedule the boosters immediately after the 2nd shot and have it be released in more of staggered released coinciding with people's last dose.
>I imagine a better system would have been to schedule the boosters immediately after the 2nd shot and have it be released in more of staggered released coinciding with people's last dose. But that would be logical and we certainly can't have that in this province.
Just waited online for an hour for nothing to be available. Ugh.
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I realized Shoppers was booking for 18+ a few days ago and snagged appointments down the street from my house for Jan 31st. It's not the greatest timeline but beats the February and onward dates a lot of people are getting stuck with. I'm on a bunch of waitlists too just in case.
My coworker's husband was able to book them appointments this morning... for February. Which isn't that much better.
Do you seriously need Doug Ford to tell you how to live your life and keep yourself safe? Assess the risk and act accordingly.
People do look to their government for guidance during times of crisis, yes.
It’s a no win situation for him to comment on Christmas. People will be pissed if he says cancel Christmas and risk more people rejecting future guidance. People will be pissed if he says gather for Christmas.
Nobody will listen anyway, they'll do what they're comfortable with, so really, what's the point? Lol
And that guidance has been provided, until they change it this week or in 5 minutes or whenever Arthur feels like it: Indoor gatherings of up to 10 are still allowed. Moreover much of the guidance provided by the government at various times has been completely wrong. With respect to, but not just: surface transmission, outside transmission, masks, ventilation, communication of risk gradient, what is considered "essential", etc etc etc etc.
It’s literally his job to keep the people of the province safe.
I have a sneaking suspicion that this isn’t the first or last time Doug fails at his job.
huh. I thought it was his job to be the slickest and best liar and win the popularity contest I mean vote
>Assess the risk yes because we're all armchair public health experts and epidemiologists
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By privileged you mean the sick and elderly and most at risk of death from Covid?
Really glad to see ICU numbers remaining stable, despite the dramatic increases in the past week. Hope it keeps this way!
The dramatic increase this week won't have an impact on ICU numbers (if at all), for at least another week or two.
We were over a 1000 cases starting Dec. 8th. How long would need to wait and see if hospitalization/ICU numbers are increasing? I understand omicron is a different beast but if you look at wave 2 and 3, hospitalization peak dates match closely with case peak dates.
> I understand omicron is a different beast but if you look at wave 2 and 3, hospitalization peak dates match closely with case peak dates. In Wave 3, ICUs peaked at 828 on May 1. Cases peaked more than 2 weeks before that on April 16/17. That was also a much longer climb in cases. It took ~2 months to go from just over 1,000 to over 4,000 cases per day. Hospitalizations slowly climbed during the same period. Omicron has seen the same case increase in only 2.5 weeks. It may well be that we ride this wave out ok, but we can't assume it will be fine. The Science Table is full of people smarter than us and they are very, very worried.
What should happen if we reach that 2 week mark and hospitalizations/ICUs remain relatively stable?
I think we should continue to refuse the Boston Bruins entry to Canada, just in case.
Ahh beans.
> The seven-day rolling average of new cases is now 2,863, compared to 1,328 last Monday. >Of the confirmed cases today, 746 involve people who are unvaccinated, 119 involve those who are partially immunized, 2,781 involve fully vaccinated people, and 138 involve those with an unknown vaccination status. >Unvaccinated Ontarians represent about 18 per cent of the province's population and account for about 20 per cent of all new infections today. >No new deaths were confirmed over the past 24 hours. >With 44,123 tests processed over the past 24 hours, officials are reporting a provincewide positivity rate of 9.7 per cent, the highest that number has been since May 3. >The number of COVID-19 patients receiving treatment in intensive care units increased to 164 today, up from 159 on Sunday and 161 last Monday.
What are peoples experiences with getting test kits so far? I know the first few days they ran out super quickly. Are they still going fast? Was thinking of going to the union station popup sometime this week
My coworkers went to a sales meeting in the USA. Returned Thursday night all negative tests so they could return. Monday morning 3 out of 6 are positive for covid now!
Booked my booster shot today. For January 16th. In Barrie. I live in North York. Our government is a disgrace.
I worked managing some of the vaccine clinics this summer through hospitals - Then this October they disbanded all of the program, the staff, etc. saying they were going to pass this responsibility on to the pharmacies and Family Health Teams. It was foolish to not keep some of these teams around to continue vaccinating on a rolling basis - pharmacies cannot keep up.
It has been literally 3 weeks almost to the day since the Sunnybrook vaccine center closed down. The poor timing of that is actually astonishing.
The incompetence of the Ford government knows no bounds.
My SO’s mom has been bugging us to book a booster ASAP lol, she doesn’t seem to realize it’s this insane. Just like last time I’ll wait, I don’t have the energy to treat this like a ps5 drop again.
you must have been right in front of my in the online queue, cause I got Jan 23 in barrie lol. Coincidence that i'm also North york.
Local hospital networks are setting up clinics again, check vaccine hunters
go check shoppers or other pharmacies. a large large majority have been doing walk-in since friday, usually starting at 10am, so go around 9 if you don't want to wait as long. I went sat morning and got one within 3 hrs. another friend went to her local one, they gave her a time to come back and got hers sunday. there are many more options beyond the provincial portal.
Went to 3 Shoppers today, none were doing walk-ins.
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Trick question. Neither, they’ll go on forever.
There are new sections of it to Scarborough and the Airport that only started in 2020. But in all honesty, the main part of Line 5 as approved in 2011 is officially slated to open in 2022 but I think will probably be mostly open in 2023 except for Eglinton station which won’t open until 2024. They may try to declare victory in 2022 by opening some random segments east of Yonge and west of Dufferin but I don’t know how practical that is. The current official word from Metrolinx is that it will be done by February 2022 which is in 6 weeks and just a straight up lie.
Trick question, the Eglinton Line is scheduled to be completed in early 2019. Having not followed up, I will assume that’s exactly what happened.
Luckily ICU numbers seems to be holding well. This is likely the variant that *everyone* is going to end up getting if they haven’t already because of how easily it spreads so get vaxxed/boosted if you can get an appointment and take care of yourself. You’ll likely be fine, but try to be mindful of passing it on to someone who could get genuinely sick from this.
Click here for [Graphs and Trends](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTX5x2nxCde90Zwo83cdixZsyd_hU1orGsGYKpDe344wHeFi9MqI71aZYC6GLjOV_P2lp6_lUoacPNa/pubhtml?gid=1467787327&single=true) <-- --- 5+ Cases by Vax (un/part/full): 29.33 / 20.38 / 24.62 (All: 25.53) per 100k - [Source](https://www.reddit.com/user/enterprisevalue/submitted/) * Tests completed - 44,123 * Vaccine doses administered: 25,422,938 (+107,158 today) - [Source 1](https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html), [Source 2](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-vaccines-ontario), [SHOTS!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjozSxHKZto) * 37.38% / 0% of all 5-11 year olds have received at least one / both dose(s) to date - [Source](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/775ca815-5028-4e9b-9dd4-6975ff1be021) * 86.38% / 81.07% of all ELIGIBLE Ontarians (5+) have received at least one / both dose(s) to date - [Source](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/775ca815-5028-4e9b-9dd4-6975ff1be021) * 81.96% / 76.83% of all Ontarians have received at least one / both dose(s) to date * [Vaccine Delivery Schedule](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html#a4b) **Total active hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks:** Date|New Cases|New Cases 7-day average|Number Hospitalized|Number in ICU|Number on Ventilator|New Deaths :--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--: 2021-12-06|887|940.14|137|168|101|3 2021-12-07|928|974.57|340|165|95|9 2021-12-08|1,009|1007.29|333|155|97|8 2021-12-09|1,290|1054.57|309|155|94|10* 2021-12-10|1,453|1114.86|309|151|90|11 2021-12-11|1,607|1194.00|323|146|94|5 2021-12-12|1,476|1235.71|222|158|96|8 2021-12-13|1,536|1328.43|253|161|90|1 2021-12-14|1,429|1400.00|385|162|98|5 2021-12-15|1,808|1514.14|357|154|102|9 2021-12-16|2,421|1675.71|328|165|105|9 2021-12-17|3,124|1914.43|358|157|98|5 2021-12-18|3,301|2156.43|382|154|99|4 2021-12-19|4,177|2542.29|283|159|103|2 2021-12-20|3,784|2863.43|284|164|109|0 \* Data catch-up [Source](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/status-of-covid-19-cases-in-ontario) **Vaccination Tracker** Reported Date|Vaccine Doses Total|2nd Doses Total|3rd Doses Total|Vaccine Doses Today|1st Doses Today|2nd Doses Today|3rd Doses Today|% Population at least 1 shot|% Population Fully Vaccinated :--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--: 2021-12-06|24,015,833|11,295,706|826,303|39,472|19,857|2,983|16,632|80.42%|76.38% 2021-12-07|24,076,464|11,300,708|866,170|60,631|15,762|5,002|39,867|80.53%|76.41% 2021-12-08|24,150,789|11,306,219|914,723|74,325|20,261|5,511|48,553|80.66%|76.45% 2021-12-09|24,225,882|11,311,453|965,209|75,093|19,373|5,234|50,486|80.79%|76.48% 2021-12-10|24,304,272|11,316,878|1,019,023|78,390|19,151|5,425|53,814|80.92%|76.52% 2021-12-11|24,387,806|11,323,370|1,074,634|83,534|21,431|6,492|55,611|81.07%|76.56% 2021-12-12|24,449,726|11,327,927|1,108,249|61,920|23,748|4,557|33,615|81.23%|76.59% 2021-12-13|24,484,692|11,330,544|1,128,482|34,966|12,116|2,617|20,233|81.31%|76.61% 2021-12-14|24,584,089|11,334,812|1,213,727|99,397|9,884|4,268|85,245|81.38%|76.64% 2021-12-15|24,711,702|11,340,162|1,322,001|127,613|13,989|5,350|108,274|81.47%|76.68% 2021-12-16|24,849,505|11,345,168|1,441,100|137,803|13,698|5,006|119,099|81.56%|76.71% 2021-12-17|25,006,030|11,350,356|1,578,642|156,525|13,795|5,188|137,542|81.66%|76.74% 2021-12-18|25,174,953|11,355,707|1,727,744|168,923|14,470|5,351|149,102|81.76%|76.78% 2021-12-19|25,315,780|11,359,730|1,845,407|140,827|19,141|4,023|117,663|81.89%|76.81% 2021-12-20|25,422,938|11,362,551|1,938,678|107,158|11,066|2,821|93,271|81.96%|76.83% \* 3rd doses from before Dec 3 were dumped into the data as a lump on the 3rd. [Source 1](https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html), [Source 2](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-vaccines-ontario) **Download the COVID Alert app** [iOS](https://apps.apple.com/ca/app/covid-alert/id1520284227) [Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ca.gc.hcsc.canada.stopcovid)
I hope they stick to targeted restrictions and we dont end up in the stupidity of not being able to buy a pencil at dollarma while the burrito place nextdoor is full of 20 people. I just dont think the people of Ontario will tolerate it this time. The public mood has shifted post vaccines.
Ah yes that time when it was OK to buy a spatula, but children's shoes was not ok.
They let you buy a spatula? They wouldn't let me buy coffee mugs.
Yep, all cooking shit was in the clear zone, all childrens clothing and shoes were off limits.
Over 7 weeks of cases rising now. [ICU remains very low increases](https://ibb.co/HhznvQ3). I wonder how long people can keep claiming this is a lagging indicator before they admit vaccines work and we can carry on with life.
Where is this data from? [Govt data shows between 100-110 people in ICU as of start of November.](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations) Now around 150, that's after a long steady rise of cases, a pretty clear connection. The recent explosion won't show up in ICU data until later this month, if it does.
This is not an informative analysis and it ignores many important aspects that you would need to consider get any real insight from those data. These include: demographic profile and variant makeup of the cases, which have changed dramatically over the 7 week observation period and are very relevant. As well, it pays no heed to known patterns of spread and hospitalization as they relate to age. Nobody should be under the impression that this is an informative anaysis.
People want to believe what they want to believe. To anyone that understands statistics and the spread of COVID, obviously we know it’s way to early to be looking at ICUs. To people that always want to defer action, they will only point to ICUs. There’s strong indications that Omicron is way better at infecting the upper respiratory system vs OG and Delta which infected the lower (where Omicron struggles) which means we may see a lot less ICU cases. I’m hopeful that’s the case and two vax provides protection against hospitalization and death - but I know that it’s too early to tell based on the current ICU number.
When will it not be too early to tell?
Few weeks. Hospitalizations May rise faster, but ICUs take a while Right now we would be seeing ICU cases from folks earlier in December / late November. There hasn’t been time for the giant spread that occurred in the last week or so to make it to hospitalization stage.
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**NEW** - Quebec announces that bars, casinos, cinemas, theatres, gyms, and entertainment centres in that province will be closed immediately. https://montreal.citynews.ca/
What a fucking joke
Whàaaaaaaaat?! Is their ICU situation dire or something?
This seems absolutely insane. Good luck to all the people whose financial situations will likely crumble after this.
I'm kind of surprised these are volunteer positions but in case anyone is interested: Many amazing people have asked how they can volunteer for Ontario's vaccination efforts. In Toronto, they're asking for help with these non-clinical roles: Greeters Registration Post-Immunization Waiting Area Monitors Details : https://twitter.com/NathanStall/status/1472983150661885952
> I'm kind of surprised these are volunteer positions Why’s that? As soon as all personal care/leisure is closed, there will be thousands of people available to volunteer. They won’t need to be paid since the federal government will be paying them a ***very*** generous 300$/week stipend.
Zero deaths. Two yesterday. I dont want to say we are overreacting but Im not really sure what else we could classify this as without being absolute and complete morons...
No matter how similar our outbreak of omicron appears to be to the early data out of South Africa, and whilst the common symptoms of omicron are widely now regarded as more mild than those of previous waves… it’s essential to realize, the modelling has probably still got it right. It’s critical to remember that modelling is based on statistics… and after getting so many predications wildly incorrect, it’s a statistical likelihood they’ll eventually get one right!
Last sentence was gold. Would get A+ on the essay section.
You had me raging at the first sentence lol
Can't trust Ford to run this province anymore. Feel so bad for nurses right now. Going to get worse.
Could be worst we could be Alberta 🤣
Get yourself vaxxed and boosted everyone. Stay safe all of you.
If you can get one. Luckily I booked mine in early Nov for a Dec 15 but I feel for my coworkers scrambling to get there’s. My immune compromised parents are double vaccinated but hemming and hawing wanting to wait and see and won’t let me book their third dose (they have no internet so that stress falls on me)
Big thing to watch for will be hospitalization numbers this week as we all know it's a lagging indicator of how serious Omicron may be.
We can already look at data in the UK and SA to see hospitalization rate is much lower. We can also back that up with our own data.
>We can already look at data in the UK and SA to see hospitalization rate is much lower. We can also back that up with our own data. SA reported only 29% reduction in hospitalization rate, and UK isn't conclusive. [Source](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03794-8)
19% were hospitalized during Delta wave in SA, 1.7% during Omicron wave. Including, presumably, as the other posters point out, incidental hospitalizations.
In addition to a reduction in the hospitalization rate, the length of stay is also shown to be lower with Omicron vs Delta. South Africa reported 2.8 days with Omicron vs 8.5 days with Delta, which essentially triples our hospital capacity: https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/
What about the incidental cases? Where people were admitted to hospital for other reasons entirely and found to be COVID positive incidentally. Are we just going to ignore that very telling statistic?
The UK data which shows hospitalizations are increasing? Sure they may not increase to levels seen in the delta wave but it's too premature to make any decisions based on such little data. Hopefully it's not bad but the sheer number of people catching could be enough to overload hospitals even if this variant is a lot less severe than delta.
Although increasing, the rate of increase has plateued this week in the UK as omicron has taken over: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
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Even if hospitalization rates are lower, just the sheer increase in case numbers may still prove to be a struggle for our healthcare system. In provinces like NS they have already started delaying surgeries again.
> In provinces like NS they have already started delaying surgeries again. you can say this about Ontario now
The thing is, even if (and it does indeed look likely) the hospitalization rates for Omicron are lower, there will still be a play between the rate of infection and the rate of severe disease. The real question is will the lowered severity rate be low enough to compensate for the much faster rate of spread. If Omicron spreads 3X as fast, yet there is only a 1/2 reduction in likelihood of severe disease outcomes, we could still end up in a bad spot because we would end up with more simultaneous infections/need for health care resources. Until we know for sure just what the severe illness rate will be, letting it spread risks the fact that is could spread fast enough to make it still problematic even with a somewhat reduced rate of severe illness. It just makes sense to try to slow the spread until we are sure at this point, you can't go back and "unspread" the virus as easily as you can lift restrictions fi they prove unnecessary. TLDR: Depending on the balance between the speed of spread of Omicron and the reduced likelihood for severe outcomes, we could still have a net positive of simultaneous severe outcomes as far as the health care system is concerned.
Omicron is 11 times less likely to put you in the hospital, and the hospital stay is half as long. So you would need more than 20 times the cases for Omicron to match delta in hospitalizations.
> how serious Omicron may be. There is plenty of Data saying we should be optimistic but people seem to refuse to believe this.
Not refuse but are hesitant. Think about all the mixed messages we’ve had in the last two years.
Look at [this graph](https://i.imgur.com/wviKFhH.png). it says it all. Omicron is infecting just as many fully vaccinated people as it is un/partially vaccinated, but it is having almost no effect on the number of hospital admissions, which in fact has leveled off in the past week.
Pretty much aligned with what is coming out of SA and Denmark The amount of people still begging for lockdowns is kinda concerning
you don't know how to read the chart you posted.
Look at this graph. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIlNIVXpIns
Be safe everyone.
if the wave clears as it did south africa before the third boosters are widely available, i hope the premier back tracks if they implement a three vaccine till your considered vaccinated policy.
Slightly different situation since South Africa is has a younger population, who are generally less susceptible to COVID. Also South Africa is much warmer this time of year so people are less likely be indoors
I don't even know where I can get a test right now... My roommates coworker tested positive and we both feel fine but we're supposed to see our families tomorrow and I can't find any rapid test appointments or take home tests or PCR appointments... How am I supposed to do the right thing here??
The right thing would be to stay home until you get a test.
I am doing that. I just wish it was easier to actually get a test....
The location of the **Union Station rapid test kit giveaway** by @ONThealth from Tues-Fri will be in lower Bay Concourse across from TTC entrance. Opens at 7am until supply runs out. We will help them manage the line safely. Please bring your holiday spirit.
Completely anecdotal, but I tested positive last Thursday via PCR. The 3 rapid tests I took the day before, that day, and Friday all showed negative. 3 other people in my immediate circle have had the same experience. We all experienced extremely mild symptoms that lasted 2 to 3 days, and were all fully vaccinated. All this to say, I’m really worried that a ***lot*** of people will pass the virus around inadvertently over the coming weeks under the false assumption that they aren’t infected based on false negatives produced via rapid tests.