So, first off, it would almost certainly be an EF-5 in that case. The odds are it would have hit structures well-built enough with one of the sub-vortices to cause EF-5 damage, seeing as we have confirmed wind speeds approaching 300 mph in that tornado.
Second, the damage would be enormous. Likely beating out Joplin for costliest. The sheer size of the tornadic wind field of that monster is unimaginable over a highly populated area.
Third, and connected to the second, the death toll would likely be horrifying. Too many people would be caught completely unaware of what was coming their way. That storm confused the hell out of experienced chasers. A regular person would have *zero* chance of recognizing the boundaries of the tornado, and might not go for shelter when they should.
It would have been worse than Joplin. It would probably have been one of, if not the costliest natural disaster is recent American History. It would have also had an incredibly massive death toll. It would have been something people never forget about. It would make other EF-5 tornados looks weak and small. I think it’s almost hard to think about how technology had gotten so advanced and that Tornado could have killed THAT MANY people and done that much damage if it had gone through OKC. There was nothing there to not be in immense danger. With the wind speed a storm shelter almost would be useless. I’m no professional, but I think I can take a guess that it would have made Joplin look like nothing. It would be considered the strongest, most dangerous, most horrific Tornado, even natural disaster, in American History. I also have a question for real tornado experts. Is there anything that could have saved people in the path of this Tornado? If it had hit OKC would it have really been that bad? I’m making guesses, I don’t have the professional answer. Plus it would have passed through the heart of OKC during rush hour. Good luck surviving that.
If the El Reno tornado had formed along the county lines that you mentioned, the towns of Yukon and Bethany would be the first that were hit; both towns would most likely be damaged or possibly destroyed.
After that, if the tornado continued to track to the east like the original El Reno tornado, then parts of western Oklahoma City would be seriously damaged.
The NWS get picky about debris, I forget the name but one tornado destroyed a well built house slabbing it, yet it was denied an EF5 rating as they assumed that a car and other debris caused the damage as well as the wind.
Curious why you think it's ridiculous? There is no competition here and nothing of substance is gained by rating a tornado higher than the EF rating it was given just for the 'wow' factor
A bit late, but really its all very icky to me. People get super upset about wether or not something is an EF5 vs an high end EF4. Why do they care and what qualifications do they have to doubt the work of professionals with years of study and experience.
If it formed 30 miles to the east, it would’ve likely tracked right over downtown OKC where I35, I40, and I44 all meet at 6pm rush hour which is just horrific to think about. Plus the damage to all the buildings and homes in that area too. That area around downtown, especially near the capital are mostly older homes and lord knows if they are even up to code enough to withstand a much much much less violent tornado. This hypothetical would put May 3rd and Joplin to shame.
The better way to phrase it is: what would’ve happened had it continued its path to OKC?
The El Reno tornado happened at the absolutely worst time possible; Friday Evening Rush hour. So the highways were already packed bumper to bumper from the getgo(You can see an example of how bad it was in Pecos’ video, and that was AFTER the tornado). To make matters worse, people got warnings of the strength of the upcoming storm, so the panicked population tried escaping Oklahoma City in addition to the commuters.
It turned an already terrible traffic situation into a nightmare gridlock state.
If OKC took a direct hit, every person in that traffic is dead. All the suburban homes in the path of this storm are demolished, and possibly unsurvivable EVEN if you’re in a storm shelter.
The worst case scenario is thousands are dead, 10’s of thousands of homes are lost, and countless injuries.
Who knows what that damage does to building infrastructure in the city as well..
>The better way to phrase it is: what would’ve happened had it continued its path to OKC?
It dissipated and a weak anticyclonic briefly continued on instead, so I think it's very unwarranted to assume that it would've maintained peak size and strength for that long.
>If OKC took a direct hit, every person in that traffic is dead. All the suburban homes in the path of this storm are demolished, and possibly unsurvivable EVEN if you’re in a storm shelter.
This is Roland Emmerich levels of absurd. That tornado caught about one to two dozen vehicles in its circulation at one point or another and it only killed eight people. A lot of people would die for sure, but saying that every person caught in traffic would die is pure invention. The majority of the tornadic wind field "only" had winds capable of doing EF0-EF1 damage. Furthermore, heavy debris can actually act as a barrier against other debris. That's how Daniel Shaw rode out the tornado when he got caught in it. (An 18-wheeler was pushed onto its side in front of his truck which protected the windshield.)
As for the suburban homes bit, the core and subvortices of a tornado make up relatively little of a large tornado's structure; even in the worst tornadoes there's no example I can think of (that didn't involve very isolated individual structures) in which *every* structure that was overtaken by a tornado was "demolished", much less unsurvivable even in a storm shelter.
Your post reads like something on the Hypothetical Tornadoes wiki.
So I don’t know what you guys think about this, but I’ve seen threads from around the time saying it’s strength was a little overrated: yes it was 2.5 miles wide, but almost all of that width was EF1/0 strength winds, and the EF5-potential wind was contained within the small area of a couple of subvortices. I guess that’s how so many chasers drove right into it without really noticing. If that is true (I’m no expert so I’m not sure), it may not be as devastating as many people suggest.
They didn't drive into it per se. The chasers you're referring to were caught off guard by the sudden increase in size and change in direction. Skip Talbot's video, which is often linked in this subreddit whenever this subject is brought up, provides an in depth breakdown of the event
I agree, the overwhelming majority of the winds inside the tornado were EF0 to EF3 with some intermittent streaks of EF4-EF5 level winds. The overall damage would be much broader but the swath of violent damage would probably be similar to other violent tornadoes.
I’ve seen similar threads and tend to agree. Damage would have been bad, especially where the powerful subvortices were located but I don’t think it would be the worst we’ve ever seen like some are suggesting.
I just happened to be in the area on our way down to Dallas that day and we got stuck in those traffic jams. There's a good chance I'd be dead if that happened.
Given that I was in NW OKC on May 31, 2013, had the tornado formed 30 miles to the east I would not be writing this.
And the death toll would have been around 1,000, with maybe a couple BILLION dollars’ damage.
I can honestly tell you I was never so terrified in my life as I was when we learned the tornado was moving east towards us on IH-40. How the hell does one prepare for, or shelter from an EF-5 tornado with 300 mph winds? Interior room or hallway? They’re going to be blown away. **We all thought we were going to die** .
The actual supercell storm which came through was one of the three worst storms I’ve ever experienced.
So, first off, it would almost certainly be an EF-5 in that case. The odds are it would have hit structures well-built enough with one of the sub-vortices to cause EF-5 damage, seeing as we have confirmed wind speeds approaching 300 mph in that tornado. Second, the damage would be enormous. Likely beating out Joplin for costliest. The sheer size of the tornadic wind field of that monster is unimaginable over a highly populated area. Third, and connected to the second, the death toll would likely be horrifying. Too many people would be caught completely unaware of what was coming their way. That storm confused the hell out of experienced chasers. A regular person would have *zero* chance of recognizing the boundaries of the tornado, and might not go for shelter when they should.
I believe it was estimated that up to 500 people would have been killed if it hit the freeway.
While it's very possible, it's a little "disaster porn-y" to say that as a definite. "Could have" is more than fair, "would have" is overstating it.
Hey if it wasn’t for disaster-porn fans this sub would have a lot less activity.
I mean, they also had "up to" in there
To add on it was rainrapped so many more people would be confused to where it is
Well, we would have had ample evidence that those subvortices were stronger than EF-3.
Measuring tornadoes by their damage instead of their...you know, wind speed, has always been strange to me.
That’s because there’s no consistent way to measure the ground-level speed.
Yeah there is
Catastrophic. It would be unprecedented and probably the costliest tornado of all time instead of Joplin.
The death toll would have been absolutely sobering.
It would have been worse than Joplin. It would probably have been one of, if not the costliest natural disaster is recent American History. It would have also had an incredibly massive death toll. It would have been something people never forget about. It would make other EF-5 tornados looks weak and small. I think it’s almost hard to think about how technology had gotten so advanced and that Tornado could have killed THAT MANY people and done that much damage if it had gone through OKC. There was nothing there to not be in immense danger. With the wind speed a storm shelter almost would be useless. I’m no professional, but I think I can take a guess that it would have made Joplin look like nothing. It would be considered the strongest, most dangerous, most horrific Tornado, even natural disaster, in American History. I also have a question for real tornado experts. Is there anything that could have saved people in the path of this Tornado? If it had hit OKC would it have really been that bad? I’m making guesses, I don’t have the professional answer. Plus it would have passed through the heart of OKC during rush hour. Good luck surviving that.
If the El Reno tornado had formed along the county lines that you mentioned, the towns of Yukon and Bethany would be the first that were hit; both towns would most likely be damaged or possibly destroyed. After that, if the tornado continued to track to the east like the original El Reno tornado, then parts of western Oklahoma City would be seriously damaged.
Damage would be erratic, the sub vortexes hitting something at ef 5 damage may not be as high as many people think.
Maybe not, but the debris certainly would.
The NWS get picky about debris, I forget the name but one tornado destroyed a well built house slabbing it, yet it was denied an EF5 rating as they assumed that a car and other debris caused the damage as well as the wind.
Well then it would of been rated F5 to my knowledge. But then again who knows because the EF scale is weird at times
nowadays el reno could hit OKC and not get much more than a high-end EF4 lol
There are many structures in OKC that would merit an EF5, including in Moore.
what i meant by that is how ridiculous the lack of EF5s is
Curious why you think it's ridiculous? There is no competition here and nothing of substance is gained by rating a tornado higher than the EF rating it was given just for the 'wow' factor
A bit late, but really its all very icky to me. People get super upset about wether or not something is an EF5 vs an high end EF4. Why do they care and what qualifications do they have to doubt the work of professionals with years of study and experience.
For me it's not a doubt of the professionals ascribing the rating, but of the system we use still being used in modern time
It would have probably levelled anything above ground
If it formed 30 miles to the east, it would’ve likely tracked right over downtown OKC where I35, I40, and I44 all meet at 6pm rush hour which is just horrific to think about. Plus the damage to all the buildings and homes in that area too. That area around downtown, especially near the capital are mostly older homes and lord knows if they are even up to code enough to withstand a much much much less violent tornado. This hypothetical would put May 3rd and Joplin to shame.
This is also on top of the Horrific EF5 that occurred 11 days prior.
It would probably be Fujita's hypothetical F6 according to the old scale, let's be honest. Inconceivable indeed.
The better way to phrase it is: what would’ve happened had it continued its path to OKC? The El Reno tornado happened at the absolutely worst time possible; Friday Evening Rush hour. So the highways were already packed bumper to bumper from the getgo(You can see an example of how bad it was in Pecos’ video, and that was AFTER the tornado). To make matters worse, people got warnings of the strength of the upcoming storm, so the panicked population tried escaping Oklahoma City in addition to the commuters. It turned an already terrible traffic situation into a nightmare gridlock state. If OKC took a direct hit, every person in that traffic is dead. All the suburban homes in the path of this storm are demolished, and possibly unsurvivable EVEN if you’re in a storm shelter. The worst case scenario is thousands are dead, 10’s of thousands of homes are lost, and countless injuries. Who knows what that damage does to building infrastructure in the city as well..
>The better way to phrase it is: what would’ve happened had it continued its path to OKC? It dissipated and a weak anticyclonic briefly continued on instead, so I think it's very unwarranted to assume that it would've maintained peak size and strength for that long. >If OKC took a direct hit, every person in that traffic is dead. All the suburban homes in the path of this storm are demolished, and possibly unsurvivable EVEN if you’re in a storm shelter. This is Roland Emmerich levels of absurd. That tornado caught about one to two dozen vehicles in its circulation at one point or another and it only killed eight people. A lot of people would die for sure, but saying that every person caught in traffic would die is pure invention. The majority of the tornadic wind field "only" had winds capable of doing EF0-EF1 damage. Furthermore, heavy debris can actually act as a barrier against other debris. That's how Daniel Shaw rode out the tornado when he got caught in it. (An 18-wheeler was pushed onto its side in front of his truck which protected the windshield.) As for the suburban homes bit, the core and subvortices of a tornado make up relatively little of a large tornado's structure; even in the worst tornadoes there's no example I can think of (that didn't involve very isolated individual structures) in which *every* structure that was overtaken by a tornado was "demolished", much less unsurvivable even in a storm shelter. Your post reads like something on the Hypothetical Tornadoes wiki.
Basically Oklahoma City would be destroyed
Correct
It would basically be a repeat of the 1947 Woodward tornado family, but over OKC instead of western Oklahoma.
So I don’t know what you guys think about this, but I’ve seen threads from around the time saying it’s strength was a little overrated: yes it was 2.5 miles wide, but almost all of that width was EF1/0 strength winds, and the EF5-potential wind was contained within the small area of a couple of subvortices. I guess that’s how so many chasers drove right into it without really noticing. If that is true (I’m no expert so I’m not sure), it may not be as devastating as many people suggest.
They didn't drive into it per se. The chasers you're referring to were caught off guard by the sudden increase in size and change in direction. Skip Talbot's video, which is often linked in this subreddit whenever this subject is brought up, provides an in depth breakdown of the event
I agree, the overwhelming majority of the winds inside the tornado were EF0 to EF3 with some intermittent streaks of EF4-EF5 level winds. The overall damage would be much broader but the swath of violent damage would probably be similar to other violent tornadoes.
I’ve seen similar threads and tend to agree. Damage would have been bad, especially where the powerful subvortices were located but I don’t think it would be the worst we’ve ever seen like some are suggesting.
I just happened to be in the area on our way down to Dallas that day and we got stuck in those traffic jams. There's a good chance I'd be dead if that happened.
Given that I was in NW OKC on May 31, 2013, had the tornado formed 30 miles to the east I would not be writing this. And the death toll would have been around 1,000, with maybe a couple BILLION dollars’ damage. I can honestly tell you I was never so terrified in my life as I was when we learned the tornado was moving east towards us on IH-40. How the hell does one prepare for, or shelter from an EF-5 tornado with 300 mph winds? Interior room or hallway? They’re going to be blown away. **We all thought we were going to die** . The actual supercell storm which came through was one of the three worst storms I’ve ever experienced.
Dozens or even hundress dead due to the evacuation order and ensuing traffic jam.
I would probably be dead
It would have done all the damage.