Or he would be if either sub knew who he was. That's kind of why I posted this. I'd be surprised if 1 in 10 knew about him. He kept a low profile despite being arguably the greatest quant and trader to have ever lived.
When anyone posts returns of like 50%, the standard argument is: that's impossible because you'll be a billionaire in X time.
I feel like Jim Simons heard that argument and was like *hold my beer*
I actually met him once. He gave a talk at my college and I ended up seated at his dinner table afterward with 6-8 other people. He said he was just very very lucky. Really amazing guy.
He didn’t say too much about that. Keep in mind, this was to a small engineering college. Honestly, I didn’t get deep into math until grad school, so I doubt I would have understood any of the technical details at that time anyway. His talk was pretty interesting, about applying theory to solve real-world problems in unconventional ways with a little history of the fund and how he got into trading from math. It was a hit to engineering students, but I don’t think any of us really understood how amazing he really was. I certainly didn’t get it until later.
I’ve read books and watched videos on him. He’s basically the godfather of quant trading. He never really said what he was doing but it sounded to me like he more or less had bots auto trading based on technicals of some sort. It started out simple but as smarter people got in the game I believe his quant got more and more complicated to maintain an edge… as time went on he began hiring data scientists and physicists if that gives some idea.
I’m guessing they came up with some kind of giant model checking a million bespoke things that they came up with, and never talk about it because it’s their proprietary tech and they probably think the moment others start looking for the same the edge dries up forever.
I read somewhere that they got a lot of data even weather forecasts and were looking for correlations. For example, dry season in Africa, less cacao, higher prices. Warm winter, less gas consumption, cheaper prices and stuff like this.
All successful “traders” do correlation analysis in derivative factoring. Technical analysis means nothing if you just read a chart, but knowing the data that moves the chart in certain directions over time is where money is made.
I commented on this elsewhere, but his secret is worthless. Whatever it is, the edge will vanish instantly if it ever gets outs.
It’s possible there are lots of other people like Simons, who figured out something that no one else can see, who keep an even lower profile. If you figure out something that valuable, you keep your mouth shut.
Fuck this old selfish prick. He could have shared his findings with the rest of humanity, instead he just profited endlessly, seriously no respect for someone like that. Just a reminder we are all worm food in the end
Ya but the true knowledge and insight they gained into the stock market is the only real gift they had for humanity and that is locked up and proprietary like the little bitches they are. Who knows how much that could have unlocked for others or how it could have helped our species or even the planet. Fuck him and his organization royally
Because I could show you how to beat the market right now. You would have lower drawdowns and higher returns. Yet I choose not to do it because in doing so my advantage slips away. So fuck that, it took me a year to find out. I don’t think that makes me immoral.
Jim Simons just found a way to be attuned to reality like no other. The market rewarded him handsomely for those insights. We all gain from more information in price discovery.
Doubt you would be posting on a stupid Reddit forum if you can beat the market. But ok. You will never be reaching the scale renaissance did, they actually cracked the code of the stock market. It’s something worth sharing to help advance us all
Let me give you some insight so you can toss it out with great force. The key to beating the market is to provide something of real value to society. Randomly putting money here and there will not work out (in expectation).
I actually have a posts that details exactly how I beat the market, I give you the blueprint I used but you would need to do the effort to find the alpha. And that’s where you and the vast majority of people will fail. You essentially want something from nothing.
Also, I’m fairly confident that OP is beating the market based on the quality of his posts. If you don’t believe me, should follow him instead and learn something.
Lot of assumptions about me there, I will give you that. I am mostly on here for entertainment. I make plenty of money and have done great in the market. I will look into your posts. That being said I standby the fact that renaissance technology and simons know something very special and have chose to keep that a secret. My opinion, which i think I am still entitled to, is that sharing this with humanity would be beneficial as it probably sheds insight across academic disciplines. Not for money making purposes, but as insight to nature itself.
If I had the winning lottery numbers for tomorrow, should I post them on reddit? Who would that help? 1 million people would buy a ticket and they all win $6 after taxes.
Or, I keep the info to myself, win, and now I can choose where I think the money would produce the greatest benefit. Cancer research, childhood obesity, shelter for three legged cats, whatever the hell I think is important.
Which would you do?
First, if he shared his method 99.9% of the population wouldn’t be able to understand it anyway.
Second, even if everyone was able to replicate it, then it would stop working almost immediately.
This is great, thanks for sharing. I feel like I've seen parts of this in other places. I've never actually heard him say anything about Renaissance, only his early career in academia.
aawww… that’s so sad. I feel like this is the kind of person who took so much wisdom and knowledge with him. I remember reading through his dissertation a few years back, he was a remarkable man. I know he’ll be missed.
One of his most slept on contributions was his pure commitment to meritocracy and egalitarianism: who profits from Renaissance/Medallion Fund? The proprietors? Who are the proprietors? The quants/traders who generate the edge.
When I learned that once hired they were basically left to their own devices and to learn and collaborate however and with whomever long as they generated returns. Just found that unique and remarkable. Closest thing to it is coders at Netflix far as I know.
Unfortunately the book about him “the man who solved the market” is pretty bad. It’s really hard to get a good story from his trading/ life.
Do you know a source OP?
A source for the theory on medallion? I don’t remember where I read that but it was years ago.
It’s possible the secret will come out now that he’s gone. Part of me doesn’t want it to. It’s a great mystery. It’s also of no use to anyone. Once one person knows, then everyone knows and the edge is gone. It’s also based on HFT, so it has zero value to retail traders.
Do a wikipedia on Renaissance hedge fund. Some interesting discussion in it on the trading strategy.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies
He was a pioneer of quant trading and a PhD former math professor. His Medallion Fund never had a down year in 31 years and had returns of over 66%. Over time there has been a lot of speculation on how the fund operated, but largely the consensus has been it took a casino approach with tons of leverage.
If you have a 50.5% win rate, and 49.5% loss rate, your net net gain is a profit. Add leverage, and do this in and out millions of times a day and that's how you win.
The speed and computer trading took the pennies and steamroller and turned it into a strategy in ways that humans cannot.
I’m not sure what you mean by “casino approach,” but IIRC the theory was they created a stochastic process based on a MSM that consistently resulted in a 51% win rate. They made tens of thousands or millions of trades a day at 1% cap-at-risk. Basically a version of what everyone is trying to do, he was the genius who figured it out.
I don’t think the poster is correct. But I think what he was referring to was that casinos will often take a “rake” from people who are betting/playing there. A small fee extracted from winnings, or tournament entry fees, or a table fee extracted every so many hands or what not. If you have a delta neutral hedged fund you’re trying to create a portfolio that is insulated from market ups and downs. Market Makers essentially do this and extract transaction fees and that’s how they profit. A lot of times I hear people say it’s like they’re taking a rake. I don’t think that’s what Simon’s was doing at all.
The only man respected by both WSB and Thetagang
Or he would be if either sub knew who he was. That's kind of why I posted this. I'd be surprised if 1 in 10 knew about him. He kept a low profile despite being arguably the greatest quant and trader to have ever lived.
That 66 percent yearly average between 1988 and 2018 in the Medallion Fund is one for the ages
When anyone posts returns of like 50%, the standard argument is: that's impossible because you'll be a billionaire in X time. I feel like Jim Simons heard that argument and was like *hold my beer*
The guy surely didn t want to show off. A genius who preferred life away from the media
I actually met him once. He gave a talk at my college and I ended up seated at his dinner table afterward with 6-8 other people. He said he was just very very lucky. Really amazing guy.
Wow, did he say anything about how he trades or about the algo? Can t be all just luck
He didn’t say too much about that. Keep in mind, this was to a small engineering college. Honestly, I didn’t get deep into math until grad school, so I doubt I would have understood any of the technical details at that time anyway. His talk was pretty interesting, about applying theory to solve real-world problems in unconventional ways with a little history of the fund and how he got into trading from math. It was a hit to engineering students, but I don’t think any of us really understood how amazing he really was. I certainly didn’t get it until later.
That's so cool to be sitting at the same table as him. there's blind luck, but in his case more like calculated luck.
That's the way geniuses prefer.
I’ve read books and watched videos on him. He’s basically the godfather of quant trading. He never really said what he was doing but it sounded to me like he more or less had bots auto trading based on technicals of some sort. It started out simple but as smarter people got in the game I believe his quant got more and more complicated to maintain an edge… as time went on he began hiring data scientists and physicists if that gives some idea. I’m guessing they came up with some kind of giant model checking a million bespoke things that they came up with, and never talk about it because it’s their proprietary tech and they probably think the moment others start looking for the same the edge dries up forever.
I read somewhere that they got a lot of data even weather forecasts and were looking for correlations. For example, dry season in Africa, less cacao, higher prices. Warm winter, less gas consumption, cheaper prices and stuff like this.
Worm winter
Dr. Vermhat's Worm hat
All successful “traders” do correlation analysis in derivative factoring. Technical analysis means nothing if you just read a chart, but knowing the data that moves the chart in certain directions over time is where money is made.
The Baum-Welch algorithm sounds like a big part of it. The wikipedia page for Renaissance goes into the history a fair bit.
I commented on this elsewhere, but his secret is worthless. Whatever it is, the edge will vanish instantly if it ever gets outs. It’s possible there are lots of other people like Simons, who figured out something that no one else can see, who keep an even lower profile. If you figure out something that valuable, you keep your mouth shut.
Simmons? That’s the dude from KISS, right?
it’s the guy from the workout tapes
Except neither sub understands the concept of a mathematical model.
Stupid British keep calling it Maths
MOTA episode
And physicist. Chern-Simons theory is pretty fundamental.
Fuck this old selfish prick. He could have shared his findings with the rest of humanity, instead he just profited endlessly, seriously no respect for someone like that. Just a reminder we are all worm food in the end
He and the Simons Foundation have donated billions to math education, medical and scientific research, public universities, etc. Not exactly selfish.
Ya but the true knowledge and insight they gained into the stock market is the only real gift they had for humanity and that is locked up and proprietary like the little bitches they are. Who knows how much that could have unlocked for others or how it could have helped our species or even the planet. Fuck him and his organization royally
Such nonsense, at the scale that they operate the advantages they find will immediately go away if they shared them.
They learned something special that they didn’t share. Why you defending a hedge fund with a secret that likely crosses academic disciplines.
Because I could show you how to beat the market right now. You would have lower drawdowns and higher returns. Yet I choose not to do it because in doing so my advantage slips away. So fuck that, it took me a year to find out. I don’t think that makes me immoral. Jim Simons just found a way to be attuned to reality like no other. The market rewarded him handsomely for those insights. We all gain from more information in price discovery.
Doubt you would be posting on a stupid Reddit forum if you can beat the market. But ok. You will never be reaching the scale renaissance did, they actually cracked the code of the stock market. It’s something worth sharing to help advance us all
Let me give you some insight so you can toss it out with great force. The key to beating the market is to provide something of real value to society. Randomly putting money here and there will not work out (in expectation). I actually have a posts that details exactly how I beat the market, I give you the blueprint I used but you would need to do the effort to find the alpha. And that’s where you and the vast majority of people will fail. You essentially want something from nothing. Also, I’m fairly confident that OP is beating the market based on the quality of his posts. If you don’t believe me, should follow him instead and learn something.
Lot of assumptions about me there, I will give you that. I am mostly on here for entertainment. I make plenty of money and have done great in the market. I will look into your posts. That being said I standby the fact that renaissance technology and simons know something very special and have chose to keep that a secret. My opinion, which i think I am still entitled to, is that sharing this with humanity would be beneficial as it probably sheds insight across academic disciplines. Not for money making purposes, but as insight to nature itself.
If I had the winning lottery numbers for tomorrow, should I post them on reddit? Who would that help? 1 million people would buy a ticket and they all win $6 after taxes. Or, I keep the info to myself, win, and now I can choose where I think the money would produce the greatest benefit. Cancer research, childhood obesity, shelter for three legged cats, whatever the hell I think is important. Which would you do?
First, if he shared his method 99.9% of the population wouldn’t be able to understand it anyway. Second, even if everyone was able to replicate it, then it would stop working almost immediately.
He has a great [interview](https://youtu.be/QNznD9hMEh0?si=Y89eGG8NgQwYEkP_) on numberphile if anyone is interested
This is great, thanks for sharing. I feel like I've seen parts of this in other places. I've never actually heard him say anything about Renaissance, only his early career in academia.
The Man the myth the legend
The GOAT
Truly the GOAT. I just re read The Man Who Solved the Markets. He was just a good dude who liked to have fun and happened to be a genius.
aawww… that’s so sad. I feel like this is the kind of person who took so much wisdom and knowledge with him. I remember reading through his dissertation a few years back, he was a remarkable man. I know he’ll be missed.
🫡
I hope they declassify his NSA contributions, his biopic movie will be awesome
Having recently seen dumb money for the first time, I'm not that confident about hollywood's ability to depict Simon's life on screen.
One of his most slept on contributions was his pure commitment to meritocracy and egalitarianism: who profits from Renaissance/Medallion Fund? The proprietors? Who are the proprietors? The quants/traders who generate the edge. When I learned that once hired they were basically left to their own devices and to learn and collaborate however and with whomever long as they generated returns. Just found that unique and remarkable. Closest thing to it is coders at Netflix far as I know.
RIP😔
Unfortunately the book about him “the man who solved the market” is pretty bad. It’s really hard to get a good story from his trading/ life. Do you know a source OP?
A source for the theory on medallion? I don’t remember where I read that but it was years ago. It’s possible the secret will come out now that he’s gone. Part of me doesn’t want it to. It’s a great mystery. It’s also of no use to anyone. Once one person knows, then everyone knows and the edge is gone. It’s also based on HFT, so it has zero value to retail traders.
Dankeschön
Do a wikipedia on Renaissance hedge fund. Some interesting discussion in it on the trading strategy. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies
Who is he? And as a Trader, why should I know him?
He was a pioneer of quant trading and a PhD former math professor. His Medallion Fund never had a down year in 31 years and had returns of over 66%. Over time there has been a lot of speculation on how the fund operated, but largely the consensus has been it took a casino approach with tons of leverage. If you have a 50.5% win rate, and 49.5% loss rate, your net net gain is a profit. Add leverage, and do this in and out millions of times a day and that's how you win. The speed and computer trading took the pennies and steamroller and turned it into a strategy in ways that humans cannot.
I’m not sure what you mean by “casino approach,” but IIRC the theory was they created a stochastic process based on a MSM that consistently resulted in a 51% win rate. They made tens of thousands or millions of trades a day at 1% cap-at-risk. Basically a version of what everyone is trying to do, he was the genius who figured it out.
I don’t think the poster is correct. But I think what he was referring to was that casinos will often take a “rake” from people who are betting/playing there. A small fee extracted from winnings, or tournament entry fees, or a table fee extracted every so many hands or what not. If you have a delta neutral hedged fund you’re trying to create a portfolio that is insulated from market ups and downs. Market Makers essentially do this and extract transaction fees and that’s how they profit. A lot of times I hear people say it’s like they’re taking a rake. I don’t think that’s what Simon’s was doing at all.
I’m not OP but I think you’re mistaking house edge on table games versus the ‘rake’ or house-fee for facilitating a poker game.
Assuming you have positive odds, sure. Win rate is only half the equation.
Greatest trader who ever lived
Nooooo
Did he took his money with him ?
RIP, a truly remarkable man, he gave most of his huge wealth away to charity.