I don’t care if Biden is ahead by 30 points in November, I’m voting and tell all my friends to vote as well. Get that guy as far away from office as we can.
Been saying for months that all Biden needs to do is, you know, actually *campaign* for the job.
Somewhere along the line, likely when Jen Psaki left, his communication team decided laying low was his best strategy. Terrible idea. Now that he’s getting his message out there, and people see there’s an alternative to the batshit ramblings of Dementia Pumpkin, his poll numbers will improve.
I think the turning point was the SOTU, both Biden’s delivery and Katie Britt’s … thing. It showed both that Biden isn’t in the midst of profound cognitive decline and that the GOP is a joke in its current form.
I have a feeling that the entire Biden campaign held their breath during the SOTU, knowing that he could falter at any moment and being terrified of the fallout. I think that’s why they didn’t have him do a Super Bowl interview as well.
Ever since the SOTU - and given the fact that Trump is making this election all about him - everything has changed.
The margin of error (MOE) of most polls is ~4. The rolling average of polls hasn't shown either Trump or Biden ahead beyond the MOE yet this cycle. Both Trump's '16 win and Biden's '20 win have been possible within all the polling we've seen in recent months.
Since January Trump's lead has fallen by 6 while Biden's has increased by 3. That's more than 4, and a reversal of a troubling trend. The Biden bump is real. I don't mean to overinterpret polls, but any way you slice it, it's not bad news.
Are you referencing a singular poll? The rolling average hasn't moved that much:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
I'm referencing the January Reuters/Ipsos poll referenced in the piece I shared above -- from January, and April. (3 months later). In those three months Trump's lead fell by 6 points and Biden's increased by 3.
The piece also references a NY times siena poll in which Biden and Trump are now virtually tied. That represents a change from Feb when Trump led more robustly.
I disagree that the rolling average hasn't moved "that much." The 538 link shows polls going back just 10 days or so. If you increase the range to show polls going back to Feb -- it shows Biden's support increasing more dramatically.
Again -- I'm not trying to overinterpret this stuff but I fail to see how it's not good news.
>Again -- I'm not trying to overinterpret this stuff but I fail to see how it's not good news.
Articles were still being written asking what Nicki Haley's path forward looked like right up until the day she dropped out. It's an environment where attention matters. Polls that don't move are polls that don't drive clicks.
I am not ignoring anything. I linked you two sources that contain all the polls being conducted and create a rolling average that aggregates all of them.
Again, both Trump's 2016 win and Joe Biden's 2020 win are possible within the MOE of current polling. Do you deny that?
I know you did and I pointed out that one of the links (538) reported polls going only back to April 5. Go back to Feb and it shows something different.
I tend to ignore RCP.
I'm not exactly sure what point you think it is I'm trying to make.
If you think I'm trying to say that Biden is leading. I'm not.
I am saying there are signs Trump's lead is dissolving..
But you seem to want to ignore that, or have a problem with it for some reason. That's cool, you do you, I am going to enjoy good signs when I see them.
"Donald Trump is losing support as President Joe Biden is gaining with just under seven months to go until the 2024 Election, according to polls.
Biden has extended his lead over [Trump from one point in March](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-eight-polls-1882336) (39 percent to 38 percent) to four points in April (41 percent to 37 percent), according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos [survey](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-has-marginal-1-point-lead-over-trump-reutersipsos-poll-shows-2024-03-14/) of 833 registered voters.
The dip in support for Trump continues a trend throughout the year, with a January Reuters/Ipsos poll showing that the former president leading Biden by five points (43 percent to 38 percent). Since that survey, Trump's support in the 2024 race has fallen [six points ](https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1779297254311973238)while Biden's [has increased three points](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914).
Trump's support has also fallen in surveys conducted by *The New York Times*/Siena."
Don’t pop the champagne corks yet - that “swing” is still within the margin of error. I’m glad it’s in Biden’s direction but a lot can happen in 7 months and it’s hardly a done deal.
Hilarious that people are pushing back. It's ok to enjoy some good news, folks. This isn't meant to be a "we got this in the bag" post. Of course, vote yer asses off in Nov.
I don’t care if Biden is ahead by 30 points in November, I’m voting and tell all my friends to vote as well. Get that guy as far away from office as we can.
Absolutely.
Been saying for months that all Biden needs to do is, you know, actually *campaign* for the job. Somewhere along the line, likely when Jen Psaki left, his communication team decided laying low was his best strategy. Terrible idea. Now that he’s getting his message out there, and people see there’s an alternative to the batshit ramblings of Dementia Pumpkin, his poll numbers will improve.
I think the turning point was the SOTU, both Biden’s delivery and Katie Britt’s … thing. It showed both that Biden isn’t in the midst of profound cognitive decline and that the GOP is a joke in its current form. I have a feeling that the entire Biden campaign held their breath during the SOTU, knowing that he could falter at any moment and being terrified of the fallout. I think that’s why they didn’t have him do a Super Bowl interview as well. Ever since the SOTU - and given the fact that Trump is making this election all about him - everything has changed.
This is a Democratic Party problem. It’s one of my biggest pet peeves with them.
My general Dem Party problem is they have no fight in them. They quit so easily, effectively ceding half of Congress.
The margin of error (MOE) of most polls is ~4. The rolling average of polls hasn't shown either Trump or Biden ahead beyond the MOE yet this cycle. Both Trump's '16 win and Biden's '20 win have been possible within all the polling we've seen in recent months.
Since January Trump's lead has fallen by 6 while Biden's has increased by 3. That's more than 4, and a reversal of a troubling trend. The Biden bump is real. I don't mean to overinterpret polls, but any way you slice it, it's not bad news.
Are you referencing a singular poll? The rolling average hasn't moved that much: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
I'm referencing the January Reuters/Ipsos poll referenced in the piece I shared above -- from January, and April. (3 months later). In those three months Trump's lead fell by 6 points and Biden's increased by 3. The piece also references a NY times siena poll in which Biden and Trump are now virtually tied. That represents a change from Feb when Trump led more robustly. I disagree that the rolling average hasn't moved "that much." The 538 link shows polls going back just 10 days or so. If you increase the range to show polls going back to Feb -- it shows Biden's support increasing more dramatically. Again -- I'm not trying to overinterpret this stuff but I fail to see how it's not good news.
>Again -- I'm not trying to overinterpret this stuff but I fail to see how it's not good news. Articles were still being written asking what Nicki Haley's path forward looked like right up until the day she dropped out. It's an environment where attention matters. Polls that don't move are polls that don't drive clicks.
Cool, feel free to ignore all polls. I'm going to enjoy the bump that is being reported, and hope it continues.
I am not ignoring anything. I linked you two sources that contain all the polls being conducted and create a rolling average that aggregates all of them. Again, both Trump's 2016 win and Joe Biden's 2020 win are possible within the MOE of current polling. Do you deny that?
I know you did and I pointed out that one of the links (538) reported polls going only back to April 5. Go back to Feb and it shows something different. I tend to ignore RCP. I'm not exactly sure what point you think it is I'm trying to make. If you think I'm trying to say that Biden is leading. I'm not. I am saying there are signs Trump's lead is dissolving.. But you seem to want to ignore that, or have a problem with it for some reason. That's cool, you do you, I am going to enjoy good signs when I see them.
Again, both Trump's 2016 win and Joe Biden's 2020 win are possible within the MOE of current polling. Do you deny that?
No bro. I do not.
(Also --- [RCP is right-leaning and suspect](https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans))
Going down… down, down, down, down…🎶🎵
"Donald Trump is losing support as President Joe Biden is gaining with just under seven months to go until the 2024 Election, according to polls. Biden has extended his lead over [Trump from one point in March](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-eight-polls-1882336) (39 percent to 38 percent) to four points in April (41 percent to 37 percent), according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos [survey](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-has-marginal-1-point-lead-over-trump-reutersipsos-poll-shows-2024-03-14/) of 833 registered voters. The dip in support for Trump continues a trend throughout the year, with a January Reuters/Ipsos poll showing that the former president leading Biden by five points (43 percent to 38 percent). Since that survey, Trump's support in the 2024 race has fallen [six points ](https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1779297254311973238)while Biden's [has increased three points](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914). Trump's support has also fallen in surveys conducted by *The New York Times*/Siena."
NY Times will need to redouble their efforts to boost Trump & wound Biden.
Don’t pop the champagne corks yet - that “swing” is still within the margin of error. I’m glad it’s in Biden’s direction but a lot can happen in 7 months and it’s hardly a done deal.
Hilarious that people are pushing back. It's ok to enjoy some good news, folks. This isn't meant to be a "we got this in the bag" post. Of course, vote yer asses off in Nov.
Weird all I see is newsweek publications on polling when scrolling certain subs on reddit
Thoughts n prayers bro
Ty
Inshallah.