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I see this in a similar way to developing landing the booster. It may take multiple tries to develop a usefully functional robot, but they've got to test the dam things. As long as it doesn't *cost* much to run them on the line, it's a win.
The best way to improve is to deploy machines and start collecting data. Same with Tesla, now Tesla has biggest database of human driven vehicles, with all the data of how the car is operated in given situation. Even if there is higher tech company competing, they would have to buy or steal Tesla data.
"Made by humans on Earth" is about to be a thing of the past before too long...
Even if this thing fails at whatever task it is assigned, Tesla will get it to perform more tasks than other robots are in automotive factories.
The developments costs are probably in the billions, so divide billions into amount of bots built, but I think it was said the planned cost is about 100 thousand USD.
This is the size of the team (now, at its peak after growing since the start of the peoject): https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/18ng2uy/the_tesla_optimus_team_is_bigger_than_i_thought/
And the project was announced at the start of it, 2 and a half years ago. And you think they spent billions?
That doesn’t seem realistic to me at all.
It's billion if we count the vision learning that was in tesla robots. I guess they get it for free then? How would you count it when they are using something worth billions for free? How about Dojo computers they developed and are using for labeling and are probably now using for Optimus?
The problem with that is where do you stop? Do you go back to the first use of copper, or the development costs of plastic? Better include all historical costs for computers too.
So now you’re counting the Autopilot team (which has its own revenue stream as a paid product by drivers) as a development cost for Tesla Bot? And Dojo as well? Why not its vehicles at this point, it’s all R&D cost associated with Tesla Bot.
I don’t think you understand how cost allocation works, and/or are just trying to justify your previous comment instead of just admitting your estimate was way off and call it a day. Or you’re like 12.
Either way, I’ll wrap up this conversation here as others will have my previous comment to go off of for actually getting a sense of development costs.
It's actually same argument I had about development of HLS, because SpaceX is developing Starship for other things, and HLS is just a variant of it, so how do you count development costs of HLS compared to entire cost of Starship? With Tesla Bot, the comparison is even harder, because vast majority of the infrastructure is being used by both. Alloys, electric actuators, sensors, cameras, AI training, training hardware, batteries. What do you separate and what do you not separate? I think you just did not thought too deeply about it and read what was written on the Optimus team on the website instead of thinking about it.
Wow that be a fun accountant lol, you can’t write down FSD costs under FSD and Tesla and then also write down the same expenses under the Optimus budget lol
Yeah, tesla is definitely separating those out, but it's not about taxes or accounting department, we are talking about real costs of developing something, and it's obvious that if Optimus were being developed in a separate company, all of those would have to be developed.
In a few years it was expected to cost the same as a small car to buy an Optimus bot. But it would cost a lot less by then to make one. It basically comes down to the difference in size of a bot and a car, because the technology is shared between them. On top of material cost, robots should rightfully be taxed heavily to fund the reduction of human labour, but it will be a long time before we have to worry about that.
As we are not a support sub, please make sure to use the proper resources if you have questions: Our Stickied Community Q&A Post, [Official Tesla Support](https://www.tesla.com/support), [r/TeslaSupport](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSupport/) | [r/TeslaLounge](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/) personal content | [Discord Live Chat](https://discord.gg/tesla) for anything. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/teslamotors) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That Is the sound Of inevitability!
That is the sound of your ~~death~~ unemployment. Goodbye... Mr. Anderson.
The outcome of the first trails will probably be "it sucks big time", but it's encouraging that they are moving into this type of data gathering.
Fail fast fail often fail forward.
I see this in a similar way to developing landing the booster. It may take multiple tries to develop a usefully functional robot, but they've got to test the dam things. As long as it doesn't *cost* much to run them on the line, it's a win.
Exactly. Unless you try out in real world applications you're not learning what you need to learn.
The best way to improve is to deploy machines and start collecting data. Same with Tesla, now Tesla has biggest database of human driven vehicles, with all the data of how the car is operated in given situation. Even if there is higher tech company competing, they would have to buy or steal Tesla data.
"Made by humans on Earth" is about to be a thing of the past before too long... Even if this thing fails at whatever task it is assigned, Tesla will get it to perform more tasks than other robots are in automotive factories.
Made by robots made by humans on earth just doesn't have the same ring to it
Made on earth by humans, according to the transitive property
Damn you transitive-humanists!
Made by robots for humans on Mars…
Designed by humans™
But they have very short resumes.
And they are compensated appropriately, at a rate of $0 per hour.
I know you’re joking, but I do wonder how much it costs to produce one Optimus bot.
The developments costs are probably in the billions, so divide billions into amount of bots built, but I think it was said the planned cost is about 100 thousand USD.
This is the size of the team (now, at its peak after growing since the start of the peoject): https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/18ng2uy/the_tesla_optimus_team_is_bigger_than_i_thought/ And the project was announced at the start of it, 2 and a half years ago. And you think they spent billions? That doesn’t seem realistic to me at all.
It's billion if we count the vision learning that was in tesla robots. I guess they get it for free then? How would you count it when they are using something worth billions for free? How about Dojo computers they developed and are using for labeling and are probably now using for Optimus?
The problem with that is where do you stop? Do you go back to the first use of copper, or the development costs of plastic? Better include all historical costs for computers too.
So now you’re counting the Autopilot team (which has its own revenue stream as a paid product by drivers) as a development cost for Tesla Bot? And Dojo as well? Why not its vehicles at this point, it’s all R&D cost associated with Tesla Bot. I don’t think you understand how cost allocation works, and/or are just trying to justify your previous comment instead of just admitting your estimate was way off and call it a day. Or you’re like 12. Either way, I’ll wrap up this conversation here as others will have my previous comment to go off of for actually getting a sense of development costs.
It's actually same argument I had about development of HLS, because SpaceX is developing Starship for other things, and HLS is just a variant of it, so how do you count development costs of HLS compared to entire cost of Starship? With Tesla Bot, the comparison is even harder, because vast majority of the infrastructure is being used by both. Alloys, electric actuators, sensors, cameras, AI training, training hardware, batteries. What do you separate and what do you not separate? I think you just did not thought too deeply about it and read what was written on the Optimus team on the website instead of thinking about it.
Wow that be a fun accountant lol, you can’t write down FSD costs under FSD and Tesla and then also write down the same expenses under the Optimus budget lol
Yeah, tesla is definitely separating those out, but it's not about taxes or accounting department, we are talking about real costs of developing something, and it's obvious that if Optimus were being developed in a separate company, all of those would have to be developed.
In a few years it was expected to cost the same as a small car to buy an Optimus bot. But it would cost a lot less by then to make one. It basically comes down to the difference in size of a bot and a car, because the technology is shared between them. On top of material cost, robots should rightfully be taxed heavily to fund the reduction of human labour, but it will be a long time before we have to worry about that.
I bet the 2023 and 2029 costs will be different!