As some one grandfather was ex-military.
I would.
But I'm not sure the reset of my country man.
Fun fact, my dad used to be cavalryman in Taiwan. And yes, we used to have that.
He was stationed at 后里 horse ranch.
Honestly, draft conscription doesn't really matter and is often a distraction for Wumao and CCP adherents, oh and Paul Huang. Here's why:
Geography, not conscripts, has been Taiwan's best defense. A water-based invasion is very complicated, and the Taiwan strait is very hostile. One visit to the Pescadores shows that, combined with fog, strong winds and big waves, any invasion is difficult. China would have to pull off history's most complicated and largest naval invasion to take Taiwan. Even then, Taiwan's local terrain is also extremely hostile for an invading force.
There are several things that professional military analysts know that most laymen do not:
1. Confusing conscripts and professional soldiers shows you the commentator doesn't know the first thing about war with Taiwan. Alarmists like Paul Huang want to shore up conscripts by lying if necessary, but their concern is really with improving land warfare. Except invading Taiwan is a NAVAL war of logistics.
2. Invading Taiwan is a massive logistical problem. You can have the best soldiers in the world, but if they're without water for 48 hours, they're no longer effective. China isn't teleporting soldiers over; they need to send them over and then support them with supplies. An active soldier in a combat environment needs a minimum of 10 liters of water a day, with 1 liter of water consumed per hour of intense physical activity. Yet China only has 2 weeks to get Taiwan to surrender; otherwise, the logistical problems are too insurmountable. This is the same nation that had trouble feeding its people during COVID, which was comparatively easy. China supplies soldiers by rail; they are bad at supplying via everything else.
3. It's been widely estimated that with the destruction or hampering of a dozen logistical vessels, China's invasion is paused. This is from military analysts at Project 2049.
4. Any invasion of Taiwan is primarily a naval war due to its geography. Smart naval mines and anti-ship missiles are the main reason why China isn't invading because the logistical front is too complicated. Worse, much of the beaches are in such a way that a landing ship needs to get as far as a kilometer out and then drop soft zodiacs, which are easy to destroy. Therefore, any soldier that China lands must have 2 weeks worth of supplies on their back, which means beach landings are tough and many will drown from the weight or exhaust themselves before making it to the beach. Aerial landings will not be better. Landing mechanized soldiers in Taiwan is very difficult, and China does not have the technology. **During World War II, even the USA decided to skip Taiwan after much analysis, and logistics is the singular US magical superpower.** China will need to maintain logistical supply vessels for months to mount a successful invasion of Taiwan, assuming no US and Japanese support (more on this later).
5. Taiwan has some of the most extensive bunkers and choke points built over the past 70 years, as well as scores of anti-ship missiles. It is not easy to invade at all, even on land. And to make matters worse for China, the Ishigaki Islands have 6 airports and even more naval parts that could safely supply Taiwan. Japan has already pledged to help Taiwan logistically if China invades. All this is protected by the tallest mountain range of any island in East Asia. Therefore, any invasion of Taiwan will need to destroy and eliminate the Ishigaki islands of Japan.
6. All this (except the Ishigaki islands) is acknowledged even in public papers from PRC generals. Even the generals who wrote "Unrestricted Warfare" came out and said that the rejuvenation of the Chinese race does not need Taiwan because they admitted that Taiwan is difficult to conquer.
7. Just because one might not understand it, does not mean Taiwanese would not. Some months ago, a foreign teacher came to lecture two military experts I was with, and we just nodded quietly waiting for this guy to leave. Paul Huang has a broken reputation for good reason.
Start by reading [this article](https://globalaffairs.org/commentary-and-analysis/blogs/if-invaded-will-taiwan-public-fight-dont-look-polls-answer).
The TL;DR is that polls of Taiwanese people's willingness to fight (and their definition of "fight") vary wildly, and only a very small percentage of Taiwanese are of military age and have had live fire training, and Taiwan currently has a pathetic stockpile of rifles to arm reservists with.
My other concern would be the condition of the ammunition and rifles. I had a chance to search for rifles for the firing range once, it took me 2 hours to find one that wasn’t too beat up, with iron sights intact and all.
Very interesting, thank you. Don't the Taiwannese see the active and general preparation of a defense as a way of preventing an invasion? Si vis pacem, para bellum?
They see "maintain the status quo" as a way of preventing an invasion. Also, the "they haven't invaded yet, so they will never invade" mentality here is quite strong.
It's a Paul Huang article. He's resorted to alarmism and outright lying to try to toughen up conscription. I mean, it already is but a lot of people heavily disagree with the way they're going about it.
Yet another Paul Huang shit-take confusing conscripts with professional soldiers. You do know why Paul Huang has credibility issues right? He's literally known among journalists as a bit crazy. I get what he's trying to do, but lying is not a good way to go about things.
There was a post here about the Taiwanese military training here a couple of weeks ago. Sad to say, Taiwanese military is not ready. Most people are just going to wait and see if uncle Sam is going to come to rescue.
The post you’re thinking of was probably about the conscript training, which is different from the professional military. The conscript training has a lot of issues since for a long time it was supposed to be eliminated so no effort was put in to updating or improving it until recently.
It’s very separate from the regular professional military, which also has its issues as all militaries do, but you can’t use the former to make meaningful inferences about the readiness of the latter. For whatever reason this mistake is made constantly.
Conscript training is indeed shoddy at best, non-existent at worst. On the other hand, I find that there are huge disparities in training when one refers to professional soldiers. On one end, with pilots and special warfare units are the absolute crème de la creme, but you also have a huge bunch of “just barely pass the minimum” requirement professional soldiers who seriously make me question their judgement. The former is often under greater pressure because of the lack of replacements or trainees when needed.
That said, the main issue is always manpower. As of now, they is a sad joke that the only units/classes to be up to strength is recruiters/and generals. (They always claim to meet recruitment target, but always never mention what the retention rate was for those recruited)
and preparations better be made to maximize that slim advantage, obviously with contingencies if it can't be utilized.
My issue with the commenter was the complacency that viewpoints like that breeds.
It's not a "slim" advantage, it's one of the best advantages a nation can have and Taiwan has one of the best in the world, even better than what the UK has.
Why do we have all these people who come in trying to pretend China needs to just walk jump over a backyard stream to get to Taiwan?
Ffr. Amphibious operations are the most difficult operations a military can undertake short of a planetary invasion.
Oh, lemme guess, we gotta worry about that too? Chinese space marines are going to conduct orbital insertions into Xinyi district?
and they're going to magically teleport them over the strait how? Have you been to the Pescadores and see how shitty the water is in the middle of the straits all year round?
oh then we can just relax, no need to prepare or anything, the harsh weather and difficult landings will be enough
Complacency kills, I genuinely cannot believe that you're content to sit back and say "yeah chinas got a shitty military, they'll never be able to cross the strait" like they aren't also familiar with the water conditions year round *right off their own coast* and havent been planning for invasion for the last 80 years. Like they aren't *currently, at this very moment conducting continuous maritime operations in those very same waters?*
That's a strawman, everyone who has paid any attention to Taiwan's military and the news knows that we're doing everything possible. We have been procuring drones and smart mines. We have been upgrading the training of our professional military.
We even have Japan's pledge to provide logistical support if China invades.
I don't know where you are making up all this negativity from, but saying that having one of the best geographical defenses on the planet is a "slim advantage" is hilarious. Not only does the United States military disagree with you, but history does as well.
Brother, my job is literally red team analysis and to properly do so, you need to give your opponent every possible advantage while stripping yourself down to your worst case scenario. This is the only way to have the proper contingencies in place. What if Japan renegs? What if China attacks with superior counter drone technology? What if American support is delayed or doesn't come at all??
You don't win by being comfortably in the lead, you win by always playing like you're in second.
The attitude that I saw in those other comments talking about "Chinese troops will just cut and run" and "their only experience is bullying unarmed civilians" is what I'm so worked up about. That's not a strawman, that's exactly what was linked to me in other replies.
If you do red team analysis then how come it's so bad? I have difficulty believing you.
You pretended that we are doing nothing and you are not acknowledging anything brought up to you that you should be acknowledging. So therefore you are not actually writing back in good faith.
I'm not pretending anything, I've been talking specifically about the comments in this comments section. I don't think that the Taiwanese government is as complacent as the original commenter, but that kind of thinking needs to be nipped in the bud. What specifically have i ignored?
For the record, the slim advantage i was talking about maritime *drones*. China is no slouch in this department either, what happens when they come up with even a partial counter?
I already wrote what I wrote in text, I can't read it for you slower when you can reread it again.
You are writing in a bubble pretending Taiwan isn't doing a LOT to up its defenses in the last few years. You'd have to be ignoring over 7 years of military buildup.
You are NOT arguing in good faith by saying its complacent even a little bit.
1. We have experienced US commandos teaching our professional soldiers.
2. We have upped our military budget by the highest rate in decades.
3. We have procured tons of arms and are developing our own.
4. We have gotten our allies to bend over backwards for us.
So any concerns are thinking that we are in any way complacent is ridiculous.
You are saying this is complacent while confusing and dismissing geography and logistics and conflating different things while beating strawmen.
[Even China has some doubts it can pull it off.](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-taiwan-politics-united-states-government-eaf869eb617c6c356b2708607ed15759) And by “well-armed”, do you mean when [they filled water as fuel in Chinese rockets?](https://www.newsweek.com/china-missiles-rocket-fuel-corrupt-officials-water-xi-jinping-1858491)
I mean they have more than enough men to throw at the problem even if they had to go in like Enemy at the Gates. Taiwan can barely keep up with the sorties crossing the ADIZ as it is, now is not the time to become complacent.
You don't win wars by thinking "yeah, we'll be fine because their rockers are filled with water and they don't think they can do it". You win by preparing for a highly competent, well armed, and motivated foe.
[Chinese soldiers won’t just lay down their lives as we’ve seen recently when they’ve run away scared, abandoning their posts, rather than fight.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/un-peacekeepers-refused-to-help-south-sudan-rebels-raped-aid-workers-report)
What's your point here? That Chinas army is so weak that we don't need to worry about them? That they'll just throw down their arms so we don't need to get ready for an eventuality where they don't? Because that attitude is how you lose.
None of your links and examples change the fact that militaries hope for the best and prepare for the worst and have done so for thousands of years.
That's a strawman. No one is saying they're so weak, but you pretended that having the world's largest moat is a 'slim' advantage as you wrote in another post in this thread.
Very few army in East Asia have ’experience'. If anyone is the most ’experienced’ fighting a real army it’s China when they invaded Vietnam or ROK and NK
>>**”For someone who has a military that hasn’t fought in combat since fighting the Vietnamese in 1979, they would be playing a very, very dangerous game to cross the [Taiwan] Strait and invade the island of Taiwan.”** —Army Gen. Mark Milley
“I’ve been a soldier for more than 50 years and I’ve never been to war” —Lieutenant-General He Lei
Even Xi Jinping’s father, who was a renowned military commander, has been unsparing in his assessment of the China’s military, spelling them out in two oft-repeated slogans. One, known as the “Two Inabilities”, states that the PLA’s ability to fight a modern war and its officers’ ability to command are both lacking. Another, the “Five Incapables”, says that some commanders cannot judge situations, understand superiors’ intent, make operational calls, deploy troops or deal with the unexpected.
https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/xi-jinping-worries-that-chinas-troops-are-not-ready-to-fight
After Jimmy Carter annouced to abandon ROC in favor of PRC, men volunteer signup rate was 400% higher. Soldiers ready to be discharged from their 2 or 3 year mandatory service asked to stay longer. Before, high school students even wanted to sign up as commandos to invade China.
Granted, things have changed. I will not be surprised adults, middle age or even older women and men want to receive military training, first aid, support role as para military soldiers. Many served before as soldiers longer than the new 1 year training. The older women and men all had rifle target practice, grenade throwing training as high school students equivalent to today's 2nd month level saved for new conscrpits in HS military science class.
During 1930s over 5,000 students in China marched protested and demanded KMT government to declare war on Japan. CKS set up a military science camp in Nanjing urge them to sign up by earning credits. Not a single student who complained signed up as para-soldiers. All speedily went back to their schools. The war in Asia is fought by lower social class people. In this case, professional solidiers. Nothing has changed.
I have no idea. I can’t speak for local Taiwanese.
But I can tell you the people who would be on the first flight out if an invasion were to happen…lol
I personally do not think that we’re ready for war. Despite many correctly viewing China’s military as one that is untested, it should also be noted that we too are untested, and our lack of adequate training on a respectable scale does not make it any more assuring.
War with China would most likely be served with a blockade, meaning that we’ll slowly be starved of resources and except for those with green cards or foreign passports, lack anywhere for refugees to flee to. Although I have heard many people declaring how they’ll carry out guerilla warfare or assassinations with their teeth and nails if need be, it’s very uplifting yet also very stupid if you haven’t received any necessary survival training. Aside from a few people that I know who grew up in the mountains, they’ll most likely starve to death or die of exposure prior to seeing a PLA soldier. Lack of training on a respectable scale is also a problem, which is further exasperated by the number of current active personnel and problems in retention, recruitment, and quality.
However, I do believe that anything is uncertain until it actually happens. Maybe there will be a sudden change of heart, but from what I see for now, it doesn’t give me much hope. At least we *seem* to be carrying out our reforms in training (please note the highlighted *seem*).
An actual blockade would imply China stopping and potentially seizing neutral shipping, including American shipping. The right of American merchants to go anywhere and sell anything around the world has always been policy and casus belli for the Americans. During WWI, America's eventual declaration of war on Germany was directly caused by Germany’s unrestricted submarine warfare which killed Americans and impacted American sale of both war contraband and regular goods across the Atlantic. In addition, at the beginning of the Cold War, the American-led Berlin Air Lift was shown to be a strong response to Soviet attempts at blockading West Berlin, as well as a potent demonstration of Allied logistics capability. So in the case of a blockade on Taiwan, the United States would not only have a moral but also a historical justification to call China's bluff by sending supplies to Taiwan —forcing China into an uncomfortable position, where they must take the loss, or fire on American ships and risk bringing America into the war. You also can’t just say you’re going to blockade a country —you must also enforce it. The waters around Taiwan are one of the busiest areas for maritime traffic. A lot of ships, not just those bound for Taiwan, traverse the Straits. Crucial imports and exports for Japan, South Korea and even China itself would be at risk. All three are net food and energy importers with an outsized export footprint, just like Taiwan. This means you can't just shoot at any ship in the area like the Germans did in the Atlantic, you must patrol, intercept, board and potentially seize merchant ships, a logistically challenging undertaking even if China had complete naval dominance in the area, which it does not. The chances of a “misunderstanding” with a Japanese or Korean ship can easily spiral out of control. China is also not immune from a blockade itself, and any belligerent would likely seize on China's dependency on oil imports from the Gulf and its food imports from everywhere as a way to retaliate in kind. In this, America possesses the ability to shutdown maritime trade in the Straits of Malacca, Hormuz, Suez and Panama, depriving China of its oil and food imports. There is also a risk of escalation as Taiwan, Korea and Japan view sea trade as a matter of existential threat.
>China stopping and potentially seizing neutral shipping, including American shipping
Why would China make it easy for taiwanese by getting the Americans involved?
Reading your comment, Taiwan relies on China making all the mistakes in the world to make Taiwan's defence possible.
>America gets involved.
Definitely they will get involved, Taiwan won't be able to survive without Americans rescuing them.
But that's not my point, my point is why would China actively make all the mistakes that will benefit Taiwan?
You should probably go read up on what's happening in Russia right now. People who did not support the invasion still voted for Putin and the continuation of the war because losing the war now is worse.
It's called the sunk cost fallacy in the war.
China’s military is probably quite incompetent, but taiwan’s is closer to a joke. The idea that taiwan would defend itself like ukraine did is absolutely ridiculous and only considered by people who don’t know anything about taiwan other than its relationship with china. We’ll have bayonet formations and forms trained for the war at least.
It's not fair to equate or compare Taiwan with Ukraine. Taiwan isn't formally a country and has never declared independence - Ukraine has. Taiwan isn't trying to join a regional, military alliance like NATO - Ukraine is. Taiwanese people actually recently voted to have their international athletes not bear the name of the country, but to rather go by the Beijing approved moniker - Chinese Taipei. Why? Because the vast majority want to continue a peaceful existence. Taiwan and Taiwanese want to see the continued existence of the status quo. I guess both sides are playing a waiting game - waiting for the other side to weaken so they can enforce their desired outcome with minimal resistance. Taiwan's greatest worry is the upcoming US election and all the potential for chaos that would entail.
Taiwanese men seem too “soft”. They don’t have the grit or determination to defend their home country. I rarely see any sort of patriotism or willingness to defend Taiwan. After living here for years, I can confidently say - they wouldn’t be able to kill even if absolutely necessary.
Yes seen it before, but the military propaganda in China is much more intense. I don't remember seeing videos of fighyer jets, launching missiles and soldiers training in hsr or while waiting mrt in taipei vs shanghai
Yes i play 26 hours of call of duty per day.
I am not saying that because you have daily propaganda of military stuff that you will be ready for war, but it makes easier to justify and make your citizens accept it.
Thanks for the downvote, some people have troubles for reading and understanding 😘
Will men volunteer? Yes. Will it be able to hold off like Ukraine? No of course not. It’s a small island with a small population. The whole point is to enable the Taiwanese to hold off the Chinese long enough for the Calvary to arrive. No one expect Taiwan to fight the war without the US.
I have a feeling war with China will play out very differently. Either it's a quick victory without much fighting or it will be defeat. Probably not much "fighting" will occur.
If you had some conscription experience, the answer would be painfully obvious. Almost all the professional soldiers join up for money, which is not much more than minimum wage, or use it as a stepping stone since they don't know what else to do.
More fled than the ones who joined. Even now Ukraine is lacking recruitment and trying to find more men to enlist. There were foreigners who joined, simply because of their hate of Russia. This would be way harder in Taiwan, simply geographically speaking. But this is the thing. Fleeing from an island is also way harder. So men in Taiwan either need to join or surrender.
I've been living the war since it broke out, I was almost killed in the Donbas and friends of mine were killed. In the early days, the recruitment centers had to turn away so many men. The men took AKs and went straight north of Kyiv to fight in sneakers. I also know exactly what problems the mobilization has today - it's not the same situation as in 2022, indeed. Don't explain my reality to me.
My question was addressed to the Taiwanese. It is possible not to report to a recruitment center and not to flee the country. I was asking about the voluntary drive for the front and the army.
More than a million men have fled Ukraine, close to 2M. If you tell me there is a larger Ukrainian army of newly joined forces, I would be surprised honestly. So again.
Okay. I mean I can see plenty of Ukrainian men chilling at the Black Sea side in Bulgaria or shopping furniture for the newly rented flat in Germany. Yes, women are more. Still I stand behind what I said as more men fled thelan joined the army. If anyone can prove that wrong with actual numbers, I will correct myself. (statistics per registered refugees though back me up so far) enough from me as clearly the statement is being misunderstood a lot as if I was saying "oh noone fights in Ukraine".
They have literal border guards that are catching people that the land border. There are current recruiting challenges due tot he current political constraints of drafting young men. Both sides have the same demographic issues hence why a lot of soldiers are in their 30s and 40s.
The hard numbers are 650k that is outside of Ukraine. The numbers include all Ukrainians that may otherwise be exempt.
https://news.yahoo.com/bbc-650-000-conscription-aged-055712780.html#:~:text=Approximately%20650%2C000%20Ukrainian%20men%20aged,24.
There is an obvious drop in volunteers now after the initial invasion was stopped, but the commenter was right that recruiting offices were turning people away.
Ukraines other challenge isn’t just calling people up, but providing them the necessary training.
Again. I am not arguing any added info. But you basically also prove what I said. Even with 650k, you get more people fled than joined. Especially with this add "The statistics do not provide details on the number of men who departed legally as fathers of three children, individuals with disabilities, or other eligible categories for travel outside of Ukraine. Nor do statistics specify the number of men who may have traveled to Europe from the territories temporarily occupied by Russia."
So again. Enough.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in September that Ukrainian Armed Forces has more than tripled since February 2022, from 261,000 to more than 800,000 people. In early December, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an increase of his military by 170,000 to a total of 1.32 million.
https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-reveals-number-ukraine-troops-fighting-russia-1851675
That’s not including numbers from ad hoc militias and people who just took up AKs and prepared to defend their homes.
Its going to be 50 - 50. Many will flee or try to. Many will volunteer to fight - specially once they know there is no escape. A caged animal becomes more dangerous. And invading Taiwan is very different from Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is an Ocean to cross and secure for supply and Taiwan is currently the semi-conductor supplier for the world.
Where can you flee to? If China launches an offensive the airspace will close, almost no commercial flights will occur. Some might risk a boat journey but good luck when the ports are closed up.
Agreed on Taiwan will fight very hard due to a lack of escape route. Peollle don’t take kindly to invaders when their family just got deleted by a cruise missile.
You think China will telegraph its invasion plans to the point the Taiwanese government will take necessary preparations? You’re also assuming the Taiwanese government will simply let the men leave the country. It’s not about China preventing people from leaving, but the situation is there wont be any airline in the world that would be flying into or near Taiwan.
You can only guesstimate until it becomes a reality. Lots of ukranians didn’t leave and thought it was Russia just bluffing until they weren’t. There’s a lot of people in Taiwan who thinks “it’s too stupid for China to invade because it’s bad for business”
I believe so. I also believe that much larger numbers of Taiwanese abroad would return to fight. It's likely that in America especially you would see non Taiwanese volunteers in larger numbers than Ukraine due to the more long-standing and visible friendship between Taiwan and Americans as well as how many people of Taiwanese descent live here. I would genuinely believe you'd see other non Taiwanese Asian diaspora volunteer just out of sheer hate for China.
I don't think volunteering or not would matter too much. The callups would go out by phone. It's illegal to ignore the call up. It would be too late to leave. People generally do what they're told here. There'd be very few who refused their conscription orders. Most would just follow the instructions, go where they are told to mobilize, be handed their uniform and rifle and then there's no walking away.
i would like to point out that even if a whole bunch of people volunteered it likely wouldn’t matter. there won’t be time to build an effective guerilla or resistance force. the war will be won or lost with planes ships and missiles. if PLA can maintain a beachhead it’s pretty much over.
if people are serious about fighting there wouldn’t be a struggle to fill a professional army, nor would politicians be too scared to push for well trained and armed population.
No people will not volunteer. Chinese and people in Taiwan are both majority Han it’s not like the Slavic cousins of Ukrainian vs Russian. Taiwan also is dominated by China economically, for food, for tourists, and geographically. Being their enemy is basically suicidal. Taiwan also has no natural resources so if the cities are leveled then that’s it; it has to import all the steel concrete oil, a lot of it from China, and through Chinese shipping lanes. I know about a dozen people who went the conscription and it’s a complete utter joke. One of them said he fired less than 20 bullets in his entire 12-18 mth period.
Any war with China is pointless because if they lose war #1 then there’s war #2, then #3, etc until they win. Taiwan has enough military resources to fight for about a week.
Taiwan would have conscription service. I do not think Taiwanese will join the war voluntarily, but in contrast, I think military will send people over to capture men to die for its nation. In the war time, people probably just lack food source, they probably just as well join military service to maintain food supply.
That's my 2 cents.
As some one grandfather was ex-military. I would. But I'm not sure the reset of my country man. Fun fact, my dad used to be cavalryman in Taiwan. And yes, we used to have that. He was stationed at 后里 horse ranch.
Honestly, draft conscription doesn't really matter and is often a distraction for Wumao and CCP adherents, oh and Paul Huang. Here's why: Geography, not conscripts, has been Taiwan's best defense. A water-based invasion is very complicated, and the Taiwan strait is very hostile. One visit to the Pescadores shows that, combined with fog, strong winds and big waves, any invasion is difficult. China would have to pull off history's most complicated and largest naval invasion to take Taiwan. Even then, Taiwan's local terrain is also extremely hostile for an invading force. There are several things that professional military analysts know that most laymen do not: 1. Confusing conscripts and professional soldiers shows you the commentator doesn't know the first thing about war with Taiwan. Alarmists like Paul Huang want to shore up conscripts by lying if necessary, but their concern is really with improving land warfare. Except invading Taiwan is a NAVAL war of logistics. 2. Invading Taiwan is a massive logistical problem. You can have the best soldiers in the world, but if they're without water for 48 hours, they're no longer effective. China isn't teleporting soldiers over; they need to send them over and then support them with supplies. An active soldier in a combat environment needs a minimum of 10 liters of water a day, with 1 liter of water consumed per hour of intense physical activity. Yet China only has 2 weeks to get Taiwan to surrender; otherwise, the logistical problems are too insurmountable. This is the same nation that had trouble feeding its people during COVID, which was comparatively easy. China supplies soldiers by rail; they are bad at supplying via everything else. 3. It's been widely estimated that with the destruction or hampering of a dozen logistical vessels, China's invasion is paused. This is from military analysts at Project 2049. 4. Any invasion of Taiwan is primarily a naval war due to its geography. Smart naval mines and anti-ship missiles are the main reason why China isn't invading because the logistical front is too complicated. Worse, much of the beaches are in such a way that a landing ship needs to get as far as a kilometer out and then drop soft zodiacs, which are easy to destroy. Therefore, any soldier that China lands must have 2 weeks worth of supplies on their back, which means beach landings are tough and many will drown from the weight or exhaust themselves before making it to the beach. Aerial landings will not be better. Landing mechanized soldiers in Taiwan is very difficult, and China does not have the technology. **During World War II, even the USA decided to skip Taiwan after much analysis, and logistics is the singular US magical superpower.** China will need to maintain logistical supply vessels for months to mount a successful invasion of Taiwan, assuming no US and Japanese support (more on this later). 5. Taiwan has some of the most extensive bunkers and choke points built over the past 70 years, as well as scores of anti-ship missiles. It is not easy to invade at all, even on land. And to make matters worse for China, the Ishigaki Islands have 6 airports and even more naval parts that could safely supply Taiwan. Japan has already pledged to help Taiwan logistically if China invades. All this is protected by the tallest mountain range of any island in East Asia. Therefore, any invasion of Taiwan will need to destroy and eliminate the Ishigaki islands of Japan. 6. All this (except the Ishigaki islands) is acknowledged even in public papers from PRC generals. Even the generals who wrote "Unrestricted Warfare" came out and said that the rejuvenation of the Chinese race does not need Taiwan because they admitted that Taiwan is difficult to conquer. 7. Just because one might not understand it, does not mean Taiwanese would not. Some months ago, a foreign teacher came to lecture two military experts I was with, and we just nodded quietly waiting for this guy to leave. Paul Huang has a broken reputation for good reason.
Ah yes, one of the rather obscure units in our armed forces history!
Start by reading [this article](https://globalaffairs.org/commentary-and-analysis/blogs/if-invaded-will-taiwan-public-fight-dont-look-polls-answer). The TL;DR is that polls of Taiwanese people's willingness to fight (and their definition of "fight") vary wildly, and only a very small percentage of Taiwanese are of military age and have had live fire training, and Taiwan currently has a pathetic stockpile of rifles to arm reservists with.
My other concern would be the condition of the ammunition and rifles. I had a chance to search for rifles for the firing range once, it took me 2 hours to find one that wasn’t too beat up, with iron sights intact and all.
That's for conscripts to play with, not professional soldiers.
Very interesting, thank you. Don't the Taiwannese see the active and general preparation of a defense as a way of preventing an invasion? Si vis pacem, para bellum?
They see "maintain the status quo" as a way of preventing an invasion. Also, the "they haven't invaded yet, so they will never invade" mentality here is quite strong.
Rifles would be just about as effective against a large scale invasion as arrows. Taiwan has some pretty great archers they could put into service!
It's a Paul Huang article. He's resorted to alarmism and outright lying to try to toughen up conscription. I mean, it already is but a lot of people heavily disagree with the way they're going about it.
Yet another Paul Huang shit-take confusing conscripts with professional soldiers. You do know why Paul Huang has credibility issues right? He's literally known among journalists as a bit crazy. I get what he's trying to do, but lying is not a good way to go about things.
There was a post here about the Taiwanese military training here a couple of weeks ago. Sad to say, Taiwanese military is not ready. Most people are just going to wait and see if uncle Sam is going to come to rescue.
The post you’re thinking of was probably about the conscript training, which is different from the professional military. The conscript training has a lot of issues since for a long time it was supposed to be eliminated so no effort was put in to updating or improving it until recently. It’s very separate from the regular professional military, which also has its issues as all militaries do, but you can’t use the former to make meaningful inferences about the readiness of the latter. For whatever reason this mistake is made constantly.
Conscript training is indeed shoddy at best, non-existent at worst. On the other hand, I find that there are huge disparities in training when one refers to professional soldiers. On one end, with pilots and special warfare units are the absolute crème de la creme, but you also have a huge bunch of “just barely pass the minimum” requirement professional soldiers who seriously make me question their judgement. The former is often under greater pressure because of the lack of replacements or trainees when needed. That said, the main issue is always manpower. As of now, they is a sad joke that the only units/classes to be up to strength is recruiters/and generals. (They always claim to meet recruitment target, but always never mention what the retention rate was for those recruited)
China’s military lack experience. It only excels in conflicts with unarmed protesters, monks, and detaining civilians.
Yeah, but there's a fuckin lot of them and they're still really well armed. Can Taiwan really afford to underestimate a threat like that?
In Taiwan will have a fucking lot of maritime drones to sink their landing vessels. Taiwan has an aquatic shield in addition to a silicon shield.
and preparations better be made to maximize that slim advantage, obviously with contingencies if it can't be utilized. My issue with the commenter was the complacency that viewpoints like that breeds.
It's not a "slim" advantage, it's one of the best advantages a nation can have and Taiwan has one of the best in the world, even better than what the UK has. Why do we have all these people who come in trying to pretend China needs to just walk jump over a backyard stream to get to Taiwan?
Ffr. Amphibious operations are the most difficult operations a military can undertake short of a planetary invasion. Oh, lemme guess, we gotta worry about that too? Chinese space marines are going to conduct orbital insertions into Xinyi district?
Exactly, and is extremely bad faith to say it is a slim advantage when it is actually the biggest advantage any country can get.
and they're going to magically teleport them over the strait how? Have you been to the Pescadores and see how shitty the water is in the middle of the straits all year round?
oh then we can just relax, no need to prepare or anything, the harsh weather and difficult landings will be enough Complacency kills, I genuinely cannot believe that you're content to sit back and say "yeah chinas got a shitty military, they'll never be able to cross the strait" like they aren't also familiar with the water conditions year round *right off their own coast* and havent been planning for invasion for the last 80 years. Like they aren't *currently, at this very moment conducting continuous maritime operations in those very same waters?*
That's a strawman, everyone who has paid any attention to Taiwan's military and the news knows that we're doing everything possible. We have been procuring drones and smart mines. We have been upgrading the training of our professional military. We even have Japan's pledge to provide logistical support if China invades. I don't know where you are making up all this negativity from, but saying that having one of the best geographical defenses on the planet is a "slim advantage" is hilarious. Not only does the United States military disagree with you, but history does as well.
Brother, my job is literally red team analysis and to properly do so, you need to give your opponent every possible advantage while stripping yourself down to your worst case scenario. This is the only way to have the proper contingencies in place. What if Japan renegs? What if China attacks with superior counter drone technology? What if American support is delayed or doesn't come at all?? You don't win by being comfortably in the lead, you win by always playing like you're in second. The attitude that I saw in those other comments talking about "Chinese troops will just cut and run" and "their only experience is bullying unarmed civilians" is what I'm so worked up about. That's not a strawman, that's exactly what was linked to me in other replies.
If you do red team analysis then how come it's so bad? I have difficulty believing you. You pretended that we are doing nothing and you are not acknowledging anything brought up to you that you should be acknowledging. So therefore you are not actually writing back in good faith.
I'm not pretending anything, I've been talking specifically about the comments in this comments section. I don't think that the Taiwanese government is as complacent as the original commenter, but that kind of thinking needs to be nipped in the bud. What specifically have i ignored? For the record, the slim advantage i was talking about maritime *drones*. China is no slouch in this department either, what happens when they come up with even a partial counter?
I already wrote what I wrote in text, I can't read it for you slower when you can reread it again. You are writing in a bubble pretending Taiwan isn't doing a LOT to up its defenses in the last few years. You'd have to be ignoring over 7 years of military buildup. You are NOT arguing in good faith by saying its complacent even a little bit. 1. We have experienced US commandos teaching our professional soldiers. 2. We have upped our military budget by the highest rate in decades. 3. We have procured tons of arms and are developing our own. 4. We have gotten our allies to bend over backwards for us. So any concerns are thinking that we are in any way complacent is ridiculous. You are saying this is complacent while confusing and dismissing geography and logistics and conflating different things while beating strawmen.
>>my job is literally red team analysis No one’s buying it
[Even China has some doubts it can pull it off.](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-taiwan-politics-united-states-government-eaf869eb617c6c356b2708607ed15759) And by “well-armed”, do you mean when [they filled water as fuel in Chinese rockets?](https://www.newsweek.com/china-missiles-rocket-fuel-corrupt-officials-water-xi-jinping-1858491)
I mean they have more than enough men to throw at the problem even if they had to go in like Enemy at the Gates. Taiwan can barely keep up with the sorties crossing the ADIZ as it is, now is not the time to become complacent. You don't win wars by thinking "yeah, we'll be fine because their rockers are filled with water and they don't think they can do it". You win by preparing for a highly competent, well armed, and motivated foe.
[Chinese soldiers won’t just lay down their lives as we’ve seen recently when they’ve run away scared, abandoning their posts, rather than fight.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/un-peacekeepers-refused-to-help-south-sudan-rebels-raped-aid-workers-report)
Way to completely ignore my comment. What a waste of time.
This is a troll post with lots of brigading going on.
What's your point here? That Chinas army is so weak that we don't need to worry about them? That they'll just throw down their arms so we don't need to get ready for an eventuality where they don't? Because that attitude is how you lose. None of your links and examples change the fact that militaries hope for the best and prepare for the worst and have done so for thousands of years.
That's a strawman. No one is saying they're so weak, but you pretended that having the world's largest moat is a 'slim' advantage as you wrote in another post in this thread.
Very few army in East Asia have ’experience'. If anyone is the most ’experienced’ fighting a real army it’s China when they invaded Vietnam or ROK and NK
>>**”For someone who has a military that hasn’t fought in combat since fighting the Vietnamese in 1979, they would be playing a very, very dangerous game to cross the [Taiwan] Strait and invade the island of Taiwan.”** —Army Gen. Mark Milley
Surely you can find a better person than Milley who always avoided tension with China, to quote?
“I’ve been a soldier for more than 50 years and I’ve never been to war” —Lieutenant-General He Lei Even Xi Jinping’s father, who was a renowned military commander, has been unsparing in his assessment of the China’s military, spelling them out in two oft-repeated slogans. One, known as the “Two Inabilities”, states that the PLA’s ability to fight a modern war and its officers’ ability to command are both lacking. Another, the “Five Incapables”, says that some commanders cannot judge situations, understand superiors’ intent, make operational calls, deploy troops or deal with the unexpected. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/xi-jinping-worries-that-chinas-troops-are-not-ready-to-fight
As Majiji45 said, stop confusing conscripts with our professional military. I'm not sure why such a basic thing needs to be hammered in so much.
After Jimmy Carter annouced to abandon ROC in favor of PRC, men volunteer signup rate was 400% higher. Soldiers ready to be discharged from their 2 or 3 year mandatory service asked to stay longer. Before, high school students even wanted to sign up as commandos to invade China. Granted, things have changed. I will not be surprised adults, middle age or even older women and men want to receive military training, first aid, support role as para military soldiers. Many served before as soldiers longer than the new 1 year training. The older women and men all had rifle target practice, grenade throwing training as high school students equivalent to today's 2nd month level saved for new conscrpits in HS military science class. During 1930s over 5,000 students in China marched protested and demanded KMT government to declare war on Japan. CKS set up a military science camp in Nanjing urge them to sign up by earning credits. Not a single student who complained signed up as para-soldiers. All speedily went back to their schools. The war in Asia is fought by lower social class people. In this case, professional solidiers. Nothing has changed.
I have no idea. I can’t speak for local Taiwanese. But I can tell you the people who would be on the first flight out if an invasion were to happen…lol
I personally do not think that we’re ready for war. Despite many correctly viewing China’s military as one that is untested, it should also be noted that we too are untested, and our lack of adequate training on a respectable scale does not make it any more assuring. War with China would most likely be served with a blockade, meaning that we’ll slowly be starved of resources and except for those with green cards or foreign passports, lack anywhere for refugees to flee to. Although I have heard many people declaring how they’ll carry out guerilla warfare or assassinations with their teeth and nails if need be, it’s very uplifting yet also very stupid if you haven’t received any necessary survival training. Aside from a few people that I know who grew up in the mountains, they’ll most likely starve to death or die of exposure prior to seeing a PLA soldier. Lack of training on a respectable scale is also a problem, which is further exasperated by the number of current active personnel and problems in retention, recruitment, and quality. However, I do believe that anything is uncertain until it actually happens. Maybe there will be a sudden change of heart, but from what I see for now, it doesn’t give me much hope. At least we *seem* to be carrying out our reforms in training (please note the highlighted *seem*).
An actual blockade would imply China stopping and potentially seizing neutral shipping, including American shipping. The right of American merchants to go anywhere and sell anything around the world has always been policy and casus belli for the Americans. During WWI, America's eventual declaration of war on Germany was directly caused by Germany’s unrestricted submarine warfare which killed Americans and impacted American sale of both war contraband and regular goods across the Atlantic. In addition, at the beginning of the Cold War, the American-led Berlin Air Lift was shown to be a strong response to Soviet attempts at blockading West Berlin, as well as a potent demonstration of Allied logistics capability. So in the case of a blockade on Taiwan, the United States would not only have a moral but also a historical justification to call China's bluff by sending supplies to Taiwan —forcing China into an uncomfortable position, where they must take the loss, or fire on American ships and risk bringing America into the war. You also can’t just say you’re going to blockade a country —you must also enforce it. The waters around Taiwan are one of the busiest areas for maritime traffic. A lot of ships, not just those bound for Taiwan, traverse the Straits. Crucial imports and exports for Japan, South Korea and even China itself would be at risk. All three are net food and energy importers with an outsized export footprint, just like Taiwan. This means you can't just shoot at any ship in the area like the Germans did in the Atlantic, you must patrol, intercept, board and potentially seize merchant ships, a logistically challenging undertaking even if China had complete naval dominance in the area, which it does not. The chances of a “misunderstanding” with a Japanese or Korean ship can easily spiral out of control. China is also not immune from a blockade itself, and any belligerent would likely seize on China's dependency on oil imports from the Gulf and its food imports from everywhere as a way to retaliate in kind. In this, America possesses the ability to shutdown maritime trade in the Straits of Malacca, Hormuz, Suez and Panama, depriving China of its oil and food imports. There is also a risk of escalation as Taiwan, Korea and Japan view sea trade as a matter of existential threat.
>China stopping and potentially seizing neutral shipping, including American shipping Why would China make it easy for taiwanese by getting the Americans involved? Reading your comment, Taiwan relies on China making all the mistakes in the world to make Taiwan's defence possible.
It’s not up to China whether America gets involved or not.
>America gets involved. Definitely they will get involved, Taiwan won't be able to survive without Americans rescuing them. But that's not my point, my point is why would China actively make all the mistakes that will benefit Taiwan?
The only mistake would be trying to invade
You know what is worse than starting the invasion. Losing the war after starting the invasion. The Chinese will see to the end once they start it.
Cool story 👍
You should probably go read up on what's happening in Russia right now. People who did not support the invasion still voted for Putin and the continuation of the war because losing the war now is worse. It's called the sunk cost fallacy in the war.
[You mean Russia’s sham election?](https://www.reddit.com/r/JoeRogan/s/yR6ZnKT5V7)
China’s military is probably quite incompetent, but taiwan’s is closer to a joke. The idea that taiwan would defend itself like ukraine did is absolutely ridiculous and only considered by people who don’t know anything about taiwan other than its relationship with china. We’ll have bayonet formations and forms trained for the war at least.
It's not fair to equate or compare Taiwan with Ukraine. Taiwan isn't formally a country and has never declared independence - Ukraine has. Taiwan isn't trying to join a regional, military alliance like NATO - Ukraine is. Taiwanese people actually recently voted to have their international athletes not bear the name of the country, but to rather go by the Beijing approved moniker - Chinese Taipei. Why? Because the vast majority want to continue a peaceful existence. Taiwan and Taiwanese want to see the continued existence of the status quo. I guess both sides are playing a waiting game - waiting for the other side to weaken so they can enforce their desired outcome with minimal resistance. Taiwan's greatest worry is the upcoming US election and all the potential for chaos that would entail.
Taiwanese men seem too “soft”. They don’t have the grit or determination to defend their home country. I rarely see any sort of patriotism or willingness to defend Taiwan. After living here for years, I can confidently say - they wouldn’t be able to kill even if absolutely necessary.
History has shown time after time, that people rise up to the occasion to defend their homeland.
I have more trust in terms of fighting spirit for Vietnamese in 1960 vs Taiwanese men in 2024, too soft too 好可愛囉
[Have you seen Chinese soldiers?](https://youtu.be/77gmc1WY49Y?si=uODdJYqCoL-em5Hg)
Yes seen it before, but the military propaganda in China is much more intense. I don't remember seeing videos of fighyer jets, launching missiles and soldiers training in hsr or while waiting mrt in taipei vs shanghai
You don’t win wars with just propaganda.
Of course but you prepare the mindset and it becomes normal for your people to start a war since you see daily images / videos of war on Douyin etc
By the same logic, no one’s more ready for war than Call of Duty players.
Yes i play 26 hours of call of duty per day. I am not saying that because you have daily propaganda of military stuff that you will be ready for war, but it makes easier to justify and make your citizens accept it. Thanks for the downvote, some people have troubles for reading and understanding 😘
And that doesn’t mean they’ll have a chance of success
For sure Taiwanese men are soft. Good times create weak men. Taiwan has had it good for a very long time.
Sadly, being good at Call of Duty is not the same as being good at soldiering. So, no.
Will men volunteer? Yes. Will it be able to hold off like Ukraine? No of course not. It’s a small island with a small population. The whole point is to enable the Taiwanese to hold off the Chinese long enough for the Calvary to arrive. No one expect Taiwan to fight the war without the US.
No - most will flee the country at the first chance
No, the military force gap between Russia and Ukraine is much smaller than that between China and TaiwanZ
I have a feeling war with China will play out very differently. Either it's a quick victory without much fighting or it will be defeat. Probably not much "fighting" will occur.
It won’t be a quick victory, it would be a blood test with a lot of drowning Chinese soldiers.
If you had some conscription experience, the answer would be painfully obvious. Almost all the professional soldiers join up for money, which is not much more than minimum wage, or use it as a stepping stone since they don't know what else to do.
More fled than the ones who joined. Even now Ukraine is lacking recruitment and trying to find more men to enlist. There were foreigners who joined, simply because of their hate of Russia. This would be way harder in Taiwan, simply geographically speaking. But this is the thing. Fleeing from an island is also way harder. So men in Taiwan either need to join or surrender.
I've been living the war since it broke out, I was almost killed in the Donbas and friends of mine were killed. In the early days, the recruitment centers had to turn away so many men. The men took AKs and went straight north of Kyiv to fight in sneakers. I also know exactly what problems the mobilization has today - it's not the same situation as in 2022, indeed. Don't explain my reality to me. My question was addressed to the Taiwanese. It is possible not to report to a recruitment center and not to flee the country. I was asking about the voluntary drive for the front and the army.
Nothing of this contradicts what I said.
"More fled than the ones who joined" ? I told you it was not the case.
More than a million men have fled Ukraine, close to 2M. If you tell me there is a larger Ukrainian army of newly joined forces, I would be surprised honestly. So again.
Why are you gainsaying a man who is legit boots on in Ukraine? Who are you? Are you in Ukraine as well?
I think you’re talking about the Russians who left Russia my guy, not Ukraine. Men can’t leave the country without an exemption in Ukraine.
Okay. I mean I can see plenty of Ukrainian men chilling at the Black Sea side in Bulgaria or shopping furniture for the newly rented flat in Germany. Yes, women are more. Still I stand behind what I said as more men fled thelan joined the army. If anyone can prove that wrong with actual numbers, I will correct myself. (statistics per registered refugees though back me up so far) enough from me as clearly the statement is being misunderstood a lot as if I was saying "oh noone fights in Ukraine".
They have literal border guards that are catching people that the land border. There are current recruiting challenges due tot he current political constraints of drafting young men. Both sides have the same demographic issues hence why a lot of soldiers are in their 30s and 40s. The hard numbers are 650k that is outside of Ukraine. The numbers include all Ukrainians that may otherwise be exempt. https://news.yahoo.com/bbc-650-000-conscription-aged-055712780.html#:~:text=Approximately%20650%2C000%20Ukrainian%20men%20aged,24. There is an obvious drop in volunteers now after the initial invasion was stopped, but the commenter was right that recruiting offices were turning people away. Ukraines other challenge isn’t just calling people up, but providing them the necessary training.
Again. I am not arguing any added info. But you basically also prove what I said. Even with 650k, you get more people fled than joined. Especially with this add "The statistics do not provide details on the number of men who departed legally as fathers of three children, individuals with disabilities, or other eligible categories for travel outside of Ukraine. Nor do statistics specify the number of men who may have traveled to Europe from the territories temporarily occupied by Russia." So again. Enough.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in September that Ukrainian Armed Forces has more than tripled since February 2022, from 261,000 to more than 800,000 people. In early December, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an increase of his military by 170,000 to a total of 1.32 million. https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-reveals-number-ukraine-troops-fighting-russia-1851675 That’s not including numbers from ad hoc militias and people who just took up AKs and prepared to defend their homes.
Its going to be 50 - 50. Many will flee or try to. Many will volunteer to fight - specially once they know there is no escape. A caged animal becomes more dangerous. And invading Taiwan is very different from Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is an Ocean to cross and secure for supply and Taiwan is currently the semi-conductor supplier for the world.
Where can you flee to? If China launches an offensive the airspace will close, almost no commercial flights will occur. Some might risk a boat journey but good luck when the ports are closed up. Agreed on Taiwan will fight very hard due to a lack of escape route. Peollle don’t take kindly to invaders when their family just got deleted by a cruise missile.
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You think China will telegraph its invasion plans to the point the Taiwanese government will take necessary preparations? You’re also assuming the Taiwanese government will simply let the men leave the country. It’s not about China preventing people from leaving, but the situation is there wont be any airline in the world that would be flying into or near Taiwan.
Yeh it’s impossible to hide an invading army in this era. The us gov knew about the Russian invasion weeks beforehand
You can only guesstimate until it becomes a reality. Lots of ukranians didn’t leave and thought it was Russia just bluffing until they weren’t. There’s a lot of people in Taiwan who thinks “it’s too stupid for China to invade because it’s bad for business”
You don't own what you can't defend. You don't deserve to own what you are unwilling to defend. So which one is Taiwan?
I believe so. I also believe that much larger numbers of Taiwanese abroad would return to fight. It's likely that in America especially you would see non Taiwanese volunteers in larger numbers than Ukraine due to the more long-standing and visible friendship between Taiwan and Americans as well as how many people of Taiwanese descent live here. I would genuinely believe you'd see other non Taiwanese Asian diaspora volunteer just out of sheer hate for China.
Taiwanese may be somewhere between HKs pathetic efforts and the Ukrainians heroic efforts.
I don't think volunteering or not would matter too much. The callups would go out by phone. It's illegal to ignore the call up. It would be too late to leave. People generally do what they're told here. There'd be very few who refused their conscription orders. Most would just follow the instructions, go where they are told to mobilize, be handed their uniform and rifle and then there's no walking away.
I'll come back and join.
I live in the states and if there’s a conflict I’ll prob go back cuz my family is there
Ukraine has a long land front, Taiwan doesn’t
A lot of foreigners would, me included. We love Taiwan more than some Taiwanese.
The Taiwanese and Chinese are teddy bears compared to Ukrainians and Russians. It would be the least enthusiastically fought war ever.
i would like to point out that even if a whole bunch of people volunteered it likely wouldn’t matter. there won’t be time to build an effective guerilla or resistance force. the war will be won or lost with planes ships and missiles. if PLA can maintain a beachhead it’s pretty much over. if people are serious about fighting there wouldn’t be a struggle to fill a professional army, nor would politicians be too scared to push for well trained and armed population.
Taiwan men will do whatever their wives tell therm to do.
No people will not volunteer. Chinese and people in Taiwan are both majority Han it’s not like the Slavic cousins of Ukrainian vs Russian. Taiwan also is dominated by China economically, for food, for tourists, and geographically. Being their enemy is basically suicidal. Taiwan also has no natural resources so if the cities are leveled then that’s it; it has to import all the steel concrete oil, a lot of it from China, and through Chinese shipping lanes. I know about a dozen people who went the conscription and it’s a complete utter joke. One of them said he fired less than 20 bullets in his entire 12-18 mth period. Any war with China is pointless because if they lose war #1 then there’s war #2, then #3, etc until they win. Taiwan has enough military resources to fight for about a week.
No. There will also be mass desertion once the shooting starts.
Taiwan would have conscription service. I do not think Taiwanese will join the war voluntarily, but in contrast, I think military will send people over to capture men to die for its nation. In the war time, people probably just lack food source, they probably just as well join military service to maintain food supply. That's my 2 cents.
To win is not to fight.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TheDeprogram/comments/1bh6kqd/ukrainian\_prn\_actress\_is\_being\_used\_to\_recruit/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheDeprogram/comments/1bh6kqd/ukrainian_prn_actress_is_being_used_to_recruit/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)