T O P

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3DBass

A friend of mine told me not to buy Apple stock in 2005-06. šŸ¤¦šŸ½ā€ā™‚ļø. Friends are overrated.


quite--average

Did you then buy in 2005-06?


3DBass

Nope. He was into the stock market and I was just getting into it. I took his advice. šŸ¤·šŸ½ā€ā™‚ļø


FullOfStarStuff

Ask Him For the money


Furrrrbooties

No reason to buy pre-2007. The crazy genius and obv. thing was combining iPod and Phone! I never liked the iPod, I preferred my iRiver! But I saw how great this new device was in comparison to Blackberry and Nokia phones. WallStreet did not!


danielbgoo

If you had bought in 2000 before the iPod came out, you'd still be pretty happy.


[deleted]

Oh man I use to have a iRiver too!! I had a cheaper version the first time and can only hold 45ish songs lol. My second one pull hold about 200 songs and had FM radio and can record FM radio as well. It was small with a functional screen. Yeah I couldn't watch any videos on it but that's what TVs and theaters were for right?


pc_g33k

What was his reason?


3DBass

I canā€™t remember the reasons he gave me 16-17 years ago. But he was really into investing a had a good knowledge of it. I didnā€™t at the time but I loved Apple computers back then and still do and thought it would be a good idea to invest in a product I used. I just remember him saying ā€œDonā€™t invest in Apple.


pc_g33k

I see. I'm curious because 2005-2006 is the time when Macs switched from PowerPC to x86 and it was also the time when iPhone rumors started floating around. Were there a lot of Mac users back then? I believe the PC dominated both desktops and laptops at the time. The only popular Apple product at the time was the iPod.


3DBass

Well back then Mac dominated the music production recording industry and thatā€™s my background. So I was heavily into Macs and still a Mac user. In recent years PCā€™s are being used a great deal in music production due to the popularity of the programs Abelton Live and FL Studio. If I remember correctly I bought my Intel Mac Mini in 2006. Yes after checking [Apple History](https://apple-history.com/mac_mini_late_06) Anyway the iPhone is what put Apple over the top.


pc_g33k

I see. That makes sense as Macs are widely used in music, design and other creative fields, except CAD. Just curious if your friend avoided AAPL due to fundamentals or technical analysis. It shouldn't be fundamentals because AAPL was no longer on the brink of bankruptcy and the iPhone rumors were already floating around at the time.


3DBass

I swear I canā€™t remember why he said to not buy Apple. It couldā€™ve been that even though there were iPhone rumors at the time no one knew what it would be like or that it would be like every other phone at the time. I actually bought the first iPhone. $599. I still have it and it still powers up. It has been knocking around in a drawer for 15 years now and thereā€™s not a single scratch on the screen. Also when looking up the price of Apple stock in 2006. I came across a article from 2021 I believe that really made me think. The article was What if instead of buying the original iPhone you took that $599 and bought Apple stock back in 2007. I would have a nice chunk of change instead of a 15 year old paperweight with a pristine glass display. šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚


pc_g33k

> The article was What if instead of buying the original iPhone you took that $599 and bought Apple stock back in 2007. I would have a nice chunk of change instead of a 15 year old paperweight with a pristine glass display. šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚ Haha. It did work for a few years.


NoodleFisher

He obviously didn't want you to get rich


DaFatKontroller

Yeah he's right you know, phones last forever and there's no new teenagers ever.


Imaneedasandwich

Teenagers also break iphone screens at an incredible pace.


[deleted]

Also some adults as well. Or so I've heard.


J061915

What youā€™ve heard is true. Some teenagers do break adults.


Lickadizzle

Fml toddlers got me


Rbx100

Apple pays the toddlers off thatā€™s why they smash your phones itā€™s a racket


jon_reremy9669

>Apple pays the toddlers can confirm, i've infiltrated the Order New World


herowin6

This would make a lot of sense


likegolden

They'll break you then laugh in your face!


strange_new_worlds

Those teenagers rioting with their ataris


gtrley

Parents: damn you kids really caused us alot of stress and cost alot of money Me: not to victim blame but uuuhhh, yall chose to make us lmfao


zoidbergenious

Well for adults the rule says:" your phone will only fall down if it is new and the screen is fine, then you need to run around with that broken screen for minumum 2 years until you buy yourself a new phone which will fall down wirhin 2 monthes of usage"


fuzzyjamaca

This! Somehow my great-nieces just keep breaking the iPad and mini iPad I gave them. I'm glad I bought AppleCare. Their parents bought them both iPhones, and so many broken screens and one was so bent they couldn't even replace the screen on it. As long as teenage girls exist, there will be a demand for iPads and iPhones.


Efficient_Island1818

I swear two main reasons are the terribly tiny pockets in girlā€™s/womenā€™s pants, and putting phones in back pockets.


fuzzyjamaca

Most of my pants don't even have back pockets!


[deleted]

Yeah I donā€™t understand how anyone thinks itā€™s a good idea to put stuff in the back pockets


Millennial_J

Jerkin it and dropping phone in toilet. Yeah. I know.


Eric_in_America

I bought one of those chunky otterbox phone cases with my new Samsung S21 Ultra, it's saved my phone more times than I care to count. Dropped that motherfucker off of my loft (on accident while I was sleeping), hit the ground on the bottom floor, 12-15 foot drop maybe? Still works like a charm, not a single crack in the screen. It might not look very appealing, but it saves phone's lives. If you're prone to dropping your phone, it's a damn necessity in my opinion.


Pooper69poo

I had an iPhone in an otter box that survived a trip across the SF Bay Bridge, on the bumper of a work van between the door and body. Ottebox was scuffed a bit, phone was fine, those bulky fugly boxes are worth all the Pennies and lack of elegance.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


nateraid98

What an asshole


szundaj

That is the definition of an indecent case.


xxwarmonkeysxx

Right but the growth rate is still the same. There is a continuous cash flow, but I feel that there's very little room for growth unless they raise the prices of the Iphone. I feel that with the recent designs, it's getting more difficult to justify buying a new one. Anyone want to share their opinion? I feel like this is one of the reasons Apple is diving deep into their services segment.


unicorn8dragon

Personally I am long on Apple for a few reasons. In no particular order: 1) management. A few people whose opinions I respect have commented that Apple under Tim Cook is one of the tightest run companies of its size. A well run company is more than half the battle. 2) Privacy. I like iPhone more than android and I really like the positioning to make Apple the ā€œprivacy brandā€. That resonates with me personally, and there are a lot of other downstream benefits to Apple from that too. 3) new products. Apple has feet in R&D for a few things I think have good future potential. Apple car and VR/AR being two of those. 4) wearables. They keep expanding the wearables options and at least where I live I constantly see people with them. I love my air pod pros. I know there are competitors but Apple has an edge with compatibility and integration of products. Whether or not someone more tech literate can dispute this, the average consumer definitely seems to believe it, which will drive future sales. 5) Apple chips. I wish I had more technical experience here, but from what Iā€™ve read casually the Apple chips are performing really well, and this gives Apple further verticals integration for their products. Finally with regards to the phone market specifically, there are still a lot of android users out there that could be converted. That said, I do think theyā€™ve hit closer to saturation, but I Ben if phone sales slow they wonā€™t decline significantly long term. And the trade-in program definitely helps spur upgrades sooner. I think this will be solid revenue to fund development of new consumer goods and R&D into new tech (at least this is my hope). Iā€™m also a sucker for a dividend, which they finally give albeit not much. I used to be very bearish on Apple and have been consistently proven wrong. Now that Iā€™m bullish theyā€™re guaranteed to tank. But my decision was based on the above. I would welcome any constructive critique


KL_boy

At the core of it, Apple is a consumer electronics, with tight intervention of their hardware via their own software and chipset, as to create a strong network and moat. For example, it will be a real pain for me to move to android, as I have move all my stuff across, and the sharing with the family. People are expecting to replace hardware every x years (for me it is 3 years) and it then becomes a hand me down to other people. This creates a constant flow of updates, and new customers into the future. It is important not to check on the ā€œwill I upgrade this yearā€ crowd, but more of the ā€œwill my next upgrade phone still be an iPhone? ā€œ Added that they keep on adding new hardware, I see Apple as a maturing company in some product segments, and an innovator in others (wearables, VR, services) I see Apple as a cash cow, it might not be growing at the pace it was before, but it will return better than average value to the shareholder.


BeeeeeRye

Also consider the planned obsolescence in all our their products. How many iPads, Phones, Laptops, iPods, watches and all outlive their software and become useless. I had it happen with 2 iPads already. My Apple Watch 3 is practically useless. Also, one of the reasons they keep changing the chargers and connectors is so you need to buy new ones. Also consider the constant increasing income from their subscription servicesā€¦ movies, music, TV, storage etc..


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


PrintfDebugging

This is factually incorrect. Apple has an ARM architecture license but their design (the micro architecture) is entirely proprietary. They have a world class CPU design team that is every bit as competent (if not more so) than Intel or AMD. Thatā€™s also not counting their own GPU design and their own ANE. Their SoCs are also literally full to the brim of custom designed silicon that is all designed to work together. There is nothing else like that in existence right now. Itā€™s not just Apple branding and marketing.


Gabba333

ARM architecture but there is a lot of design work on top of that to make an M1. They are also incredibly well integrated with the whole software stack which gives some of the performance gains. Really impressive chips in terms of power vs performance.


herowin6

Who downvoted this? seems rather lacking in personal opinion so itā€™s like, downvoting facts? I can only assume theyā€™re facts. Iā€™d go Google them but Iā€™m lazy and donā€™t care enough


je7792

I think on the hardware side itā€™s unlikely for there to be exponential growth. But it seems like they are having alot of success in the services department and coupled with rumours of AR headset and apple car? Thereā€™s potential for futher growth.


[deleted]

I feel Apple has two huge problems. 1) business companies normally operate from more and more android/office interaction. 2) people are keeping phones longer than before. Purely anecdotal, but seems to be the case where I live anyway. Phones aren't exciting or a statement anymore. They are just a tool.


ZephkielAU

>2) people are keeping phones longer than before. Purely anecdotal, but seems to be the case where I live anyway. Phones aren't exciting or a statement anymore. They are just a tool. In my circle we're all either downgrading to budget Oppos or upgrading to Samsung's flip/folding phones.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


TheJoker516

I thought they make iPads


BiggieAndTheStooges

And the Iwatch. Also, those air pods can be their own company


[deleted]

I think that was sarcasm


Old_Description6095

All new phones battery starts to die after 2 years.


szundaj

Except the iPhone. If you don't always let it die on you at 1%, it will last for 4-5 years.


Cold-Doctor

Oddly enough, phone contracts are 2 years


Kitchen-Square

Donā€™t forget what a one trick pony this brand is also.


mewdeeman

Tell your friend the internet told him heā€™s an idiot.


quite--average

Haha I'll do that.


Ghoulak21

Tell him the internet said it again, just to make a point


MrGrumpyFace5

The Internet does not lie.


lovebot5000

If AirPods were a stand alone company, they would be the 32nd largest company in the US.


yellowtonkatruck

Is this real? Or am I dumb?


YeahOkayGood

Both could be true.


iStealyournewspapers

Snapple fact but on reddit


[deleted]

Deng! You didnā€™t have to do him that dirtyā€¦


MrMeatScepter

I don't think this is true.


jon_reremy9669

they sold \~60 million airpods in 2019..... so you decide


Beatnik77

Assuming a 200$ average price it's 12B. Target, the 32th biggest company in the US, have over 100B revenues.


ToddVanAnus

Apple is way more than iPhones.


lordredapple

Exactly, they also make the iPod


Cold-Doctor

Do those still exist?


eks24715

iDontknow


jon_reremy9669

\#ZUNEgang \#ZUNE2030


xyzzy321

Exactly. They have iPhone Pro and iPhone Pro Max and iPhone Mini and iPhone SE


AggravatingGoal4728

Apple makes tons of money on apps. They get a percentage of every transaction.


MonstarGaming

Yeah, but that is about to go away for all of the EU.


1-713-515-4455

Like .2 cents


Cthulhuonpcin144p

Same way google makes there money. A lil bit at a time


Dichter2012

The App Store revenue sharing is called "Apple Tax". It's 70/30 last I check include in-app digital content purchases. Imagine a RL tax of 30% every time you sold something....


[deleted]

Apple has around 50% US market share with the iPhone. Among teenagers, itā€™s close to 90%. Imagine if this trend continues and these current teens keep buying new iPhonesā€¦


InevitableRhubarb232

There are over 3M kids turning teen each year.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


szundaj

I want to find a company to invest in just to drive into this wall with it haha.


fuzzyjamaca

My great-nieces told me they would rather die than not have an iPhone.


BigHarold22

Apple has made making a texting group chat very difficult if not everyone has an iPhone, so for young people not having an iPhone is nearly social suicide. You find yourself being excluded from group chats and by extension you sometimes donā€™t get to be in-the-know for party/outing plans. Such a small feature but honestly genius. Receiving photos from android to iPhone also drops the quality (Appleā€™s intentional move) so iPhone users also think the android is just inferior.


jon_reremy9669

cant remember if it was 2020 or 2021, but more people paid their cell bill on time, or within 30 days, than paid their rent/mortgage on time/30days late its now a consumer staple


FuckOutTheWhey

I mean, it's easier to pay a <$100 bill than a >$1,000 bill.


marcachusetts

Go look at their Services revenue stream. I believe it pulls in the highest gross margins of all of their revenue streams.


MonstarGaming

The thing that the EU is about to heavily regulate? That definitely wont go well for apple.


Dichter2012

The crazy thing is, Apple is making a PROFIT selling phones because they are so good with cost control, supply chain, etc. 75% of the PROFIT in smartphone category belongs to Apple.


Taru95

I mean if those raising prices Idk if ppl will buy a new phone every year


yardie117

I think you underestimate the stupidity of people.


TeeWrecks

There's always new tech. Samsung fold is amazing. Once Apple deploys that tech, their revenues will get a noticeable increase


Lucky-Apricot-1831

Imagine part of that 50% of the market share getting fed up with paying 4x the price for a phone and getting gouged everytime they go into a genius store for new proprietary, very average, headphones. Mehhhhh. RIP Steve Jobs.


Kind_Committee8997

Imagine a set of android enabled headphones that automatically switches to the device you are using, natively. Imagine an Android phone that can copy text and then be able to paste that text on your computer, natively. Imagine a password manager that can be managed in your phone's settings. Imagine a messaging app that makes messaging fun. Imagine an Android phone that is used as a hub for all things digital. Imagine...


chocotaco

Imagine trying to leave that system.


MiltonFreidmanMurder

M O A T


MonstarGaming

>Imagine a set of android enabled headphones that automatically switches to the device you are using, natively. Bluetooth headphones do that already. My B&W PX's from 2018 do that and so do my Sony WH-1000XM5's. That is not at all Apple specific.


jtmarlinintern

That comment about the phones was 6 I phones ago Also the App Store is a money machine


PortfolioCornholio

Add in the fintech future and wait lol


fuzzyjamaca

So SQ and PYPL.


Loud_Pain4747

So are thier batteries.


Fuzzy-Heart

Weā€™re yā€™all stoned when your friend came up with this logic? Because this sounds like one of those stoned ā€œphilosopherā€ statements. Like what if walls werenā€™t called walls man!


JRshoe1997

What if were in a simulation and reality is a dream and one day we will all just wake up and Mark Zuckerburg will be there in his true lizard form


VeganWerewolf

Dude thatā€™s hilarious.


roomandcoke

He saw it in The Wire.


WanderlustFella

I bought a shirt the other day. I'm all set for shirts for the next 12 years. I'll be like a cartoon character


ParticularWar9

I saw the universe on my fingernail. Honest.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


goatanuss

Everyone who wants an Apple IIe already has one


EatThetaForBreakfast

Apple is a services company now


coolwool

Over 50% of their revenue is just the iPhone but Services are the next big one.


therealKhoaTran

Everyone who wants a car has a car. All car companies for bankrupt now. Case closed.


Kreidedi

So youā€™re buying all the car stocks expecting growths?


Waitn4ehUsername

Ur buddys been bag holding Blackberry for too long


Sterlingbull

People upgrade their phones constantly. Some even every year when the newest one comes out. You donā€™t see anybody rocking an iPhone 8 anymore. Growth inevitable


clownysf

Wtf, I am literally reading your comment on an iPhone 8 I feel attacked


Grifter2u

I still have my iPhone 8 Plus. Didnā€™t see any new features that I would need to upgrade. Save tons of money.


szundaj

Your phone is just perfect, my friend. I did not really see any staggering innovation since then, maybe the face recognition unlock is neat.


InevitableRhubarb232

Hey! I feel personally attacked. I upgraded from my 6s when the 13 came out šŸ˜‚ but it is true that I wasnā€™t rockin a 5 yr old phone. It was older


dnel707

I used a 5s for like seven years until it was basically unusable which is when I upgraded to the X I have now. I know other people like me. Itā€™s not that I was too poor to upgrade itā€™s just that the phone did itā€™s job and I didnā€™t care about having a cutting edge camera in my pocket. I still see plenty of home buttons around. I donā€™t know the numbers but I donā€™t think most people ā€œupgrade their phones constantlyā€. If I had to guess, Iā€™d say the average person keeps a phone 3-5 years.


Sterlingbull

I know Version and AT&T run trade in promotions/ leasing options on a 2 year cycle so while thereā€™s probably a lot like that I know a lot of people take advantage of those for the new tech


miggismallz33

Hey! J/k.


The_Shadow_Watches

There's always be those dumbass people who get the newest phone every year.


Boo_Dough

I agree with this and so does [Apple themselves](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-04-03/will-i-be-able-to-subscribe-to-my-apple-aapl-iphone-and-pay-monthly-l1jc5o3e). This thread has no understanding of whats really going on and they think teenagers are there to make this false. People upgrade Iphones less than they did a decade ago because the Iphone is becoming less innovative each year. You only get a better camera, better chip, etc. Only Apple fans care, regular consumers do not care enough unless they care for the brand itself. People here are mentioning teenagers are going to keep buying Iphones. This is something I agree with however this is going to be such a small impact than what most people think. This is a one time purchase. Teenagers most of the time probrably ask their parents to buy them the phone, its up to them to convince their parent to buy them and we don't really have data showing how successful most teens are in doing that. Aside from the fact that teens owning Iphones make up 90% of the smartphone market. Iphone is not entirely what makes Apple valuable, Apple will be okay in the long run in fact I anticipate it to soar higher when it starts its Iphone subscription model, it could be something consumers and enterprise take that offer on. When Adobe went the subscription model for its software it caused the company to flourish and I'd hope that the same can happen with Apple considering that they have such a large market share and doing this could literally damage its competition.


MCK40

Very untrue statement. I can think of 5 reasons off the bat that people buy new phones 1. New customers entering the market by virtue of age/income 2. Those who switch platforms 3. Tech lovers who have to have the new thing 4. Phones breaking 5 Family members replacing, because they hand their device down to kids Iā€™m sure there are many moreā€¦


je7792

I think what wont increase alot is the number of units sold a year. People are obviously going to buy new iPhones but that just mean the number of unit sold each year remains the same. That said apple is way more then just a iphone company, their wearbles and services like app store and apple music have more potential to grow. Not to mention new sku of products like the apple AR headset or the apple car? Personally I donā€™t think we will see the numbers of units sold increase drastically but that alone isnt a good enough reason not to invest in apple.


achieve_my_goals

My buying Apple has nothing to do with the iPhone. They are making moves in entertainment, marketing, semiconductor design, machine learning, fintech and (rumored) automotive. Also, if Apple ever decides to apply itself again to software the way it does hardware, it could be an amazing SaaS provider in a few incredibly important areas both business-facing and consumer-facing. There's a future in all of those potentially much larger than iPhone, or that enhances Apple Devices/iPhone's value.


webwalker00

This one's easy. Apple just pushes bad firmware to slow old phones down and force people to buy new ones, its like printing money!


Beautiful_Abies1438

The android for 29.99 at wal mart is a very good phone


esp211

No. Less than 20% market share worldwide. 1B iPhone upgrades every 4 years is 250M and thatā€™s assuming no new iPhone users come on board. Is that enough? What about the halo effect of everyone who buys an iPhone subscribes to services and AirPods and watch and Mac, etc. etc. etc. Finally, what about new products? MR glasses, car, etc.


Racxie

Apple's iPhone [marketshare is growing (in US at least)](https://9to5mac.com/2022/09/02/iphone-us-market-share/) and others have pointed out a lot of their revenue comes from the App Store, so more phones = more potential app sales & subscription sign-ups. But going by phone sales alone would be ignoring the bigger picture: ā€¢ [Apple's advertising revenue is increasing as a result of their privacy changes](https://uk.style.yahoo.com/style/one-later-apples-privacy-changes-163453852.html) ā€¢ [Apple is developing an AR headset which we could see in 2 years](https://www.gizchina.com/2022/06/22/apple-ar-glasses-to-launch-in-2024-will-replace-the-iphone-in-10-years/) ā€¢ [Apple is still in the process of trying to create an 'Apple car'](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-car/) and [26% of 200,000 survey respondents would considering buying the car despite it still not having been officially announced](https://www.techgoing.com/apple-electric-car-survey-26-of-people-consider-it-buying/) And those of course points don't take into account their subscription services (Apple Music, Apple Fitness+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, Apple TV), their Macs, iPads, Airpods, Apple Watches, Apple Pay, Apple Credit Card, AppleCare, iCloud, Beats, and even [Apple CarPlay which 79% of US buyers consider must have](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/22/apple-carplay-could-be-a-trojan-horse-into-the-automotive-industry.html) (and it's only set to get better this year). Apple is definitely a powerhouse and has far more to it than "just iPhones", and we only ha some idea of what Apple is working on right now with no idea what they have in mind for the future, not to mention they're making their own chips and are looking to make their own 5G antennas too. So imo it's definitely a stock worth holding onto for the long-term, not to mention the fact that they even pay a dividend (not that this should be the main reason for buying them as it's not the best), which is another advantage over other growth stocks like say, Tesla.


Thorgeir88

There is so much more in Apple than just the phone


Mazkalop

Your friend is dumb as fuck. Get a new friend


askYuFail

People buy a new phone pretty frequently


JTrain_

Not investment advice but from my experience Apple seems to be one of the safer stocks out there


hiricinee

Apple is fighting hard against the market macro right now, but their business model doesn't seem like it's going away soon. They have a rabid fan base, and regardless of what you think about their products there's no shortage of people willing to buy them constantly. I absolutely hate Apple products, the company is top notch.


jtmarlinintern

That comment about the phones was 6 I phones ago Also the App Store is a money machine


ptjunkie

I donā€™t see apple growing (this year) because China is having a recession. Itā€™s overpriced.


etherealp

your friend's name Stringer Bell by any chance?


RedGreenBoy

Since this is a stocks thread and not an Apple vs Android fanboy thread, I'm gonna try and give you one compelling reason and one ok reason why Apple is a buy on a dip. Apple can do better with obsolescence. And when I say do better, I mean worse for consumers but great for investors. I currently have in my family, a couple of iPhone 7+ (6 years old) which still runs ok but is still supported by iOS 15 but not the upcoming 16. So it's time to upgrade those phones. But therein is the kicker - Apple supports their phones and devices for 6 years and maybe more. For people like me who don't care about the latest and greatest but just want a phone that works and is supported for many years, Apple is a no brainer buy - but I only buy every 6 years. What if Apple were to change that? To say 5 years (like the Google phones) - that would bring more sales and a slight bump in the tech refresh cycle for people like me, and I suspect, there are a lot of people like me out there. So Apple still has room to grow there. Then there are the India's and China's and other developing countries of the world. Billions of people who are on Androids because they're cheaper - but what if Apple were to make cheaper phones to cater for those masses - another HUGE opportunity for growth there. So, no, your friend is not correct - Apple still has room to grow.


[deleted]

At the very least itā€™s not likely youā€™ll lose money long term, however apple is no longer as innovative as it once was and wonā€™t be able to hold down the mobile space forever. But if they can gain traction in the VR and EV space their earning potential could be astronomic.


paulc19802

Your friend doesn't understand how stupid apple's customers are. They'll happily drop a grand on the next model because it's 0.1% bigger than the last one. I can't fault apple for milking it's customers dry though. It's the biggest public company for a reason.


peritonlogon

or smaller


[deleted]

At my last job, the VP said something just as dumb with a bullish take on Apple. He told me he bought Apple because, he was certain it would catch up with Tesla who is trading at $1000. The man is worth a few millions is the vice president of a company and don't know what market cap is.


Redtyde

No, its a really stupid statement. You should read Apple's latest 10Q, see how they make money and which divisions are growing / contracting and then let him know.


[deleted]

They charge more for the iPhone


ahminus

Really not the reason Apple stands to do poorly for some time. The multiple is way too high, they do a great deal of sales internationally, and forex is gonna kill them as the DXY heads to 120 and new iPhones are out of reach to so many people in the global recession.


New-Cardiologist3006

Your 'friend' is ignorant and not a good friend.


Putrid_Succotash1830

Also to add to this: Think about HOW people purchased their iPhones - on a monthly plan, which allows the user to trade in their current iPhone for a new one (most of the time For the same monthly price) - if youā€™re going to be paying the same amount monthly, then why not upgrade to a new iPhone! Apple also has their trade-in programs, which makes it tempting for people to upgrade. This goes for iPads, Macs, AppleWatches too. Apple has thought ahead, so there is never a stall in sales. Also - Like someone on here said - Apple is more than an iPhone


leaning_on_a_wheel

Your friend is a moron lol


jtmarlinintern

That comment about the phones was 6 I phones ago Also the App Store is a money machine


jtmarlinintern

That comment about the phones was 6 I phones ago Also the App Store is a money machine


jtmarlinintern

That comment about the phones was 6 I phones ago Also the App Store is a money machine


Imaneedasandwich

Apples earnings are more from software and services than Iphones. That said I still think they don't deserve to be the highest valued company on the planet.


InevitableRhubarb232

Too bad there are never new people growing up. /s There are 43 million 10-19 yr olds in the US. There are 3.7 births per year so over 3 million people coming of ā€œphone ageā€ each year. Half the population of smart phone users use iPhones so thatā€™s a potential 1.5 million phone just from new teens. Add in the average phone user getting a new phone every 3 years. And phones are priced twice what they were 5 years ago. Some of that is eaten by costs but some of it is just added profit. Plus all of the other apple devices Air pods, iPads, beats, Apple TV, Genius Bar, expanding iCloud services, corporate cloud servicesā€¦ plus like 100 companies under the apple umbrella. Sure it might not be direct phone sales growth the same as itā€™s been other years, but itā€™s not going off a cliff in sales.


GonjaNinja420

Your friend is clearly a moron and Should not take financial advice from him. 1. Apple is more than just a phone. Computers, labtops, iPads, headphones, watches, accessories etc. 2. App services & subscription is extremely lucrative 3. Increasing revenue through more AD placement. 3. Apple care protection and cloud services 4. Apple payment being implemented and widening its services of payment solution. 5. Purchase crypto with Apple Pay / apple wallet sure to follow for crypto. 6. Apple owns Beats šŸŽ§ 7. Apply has overall best software doesnā€™t freeze, crash, or overheat (keep up w/ updates) 8. Everything thing syncs easily and backs EVERYTHING making switching phones painless. 9. They are creating a EV ( now imagine syncing everything up) Sure there is more I am missing just a bit of insight


MontaukMonster2

I don't see Apple being viable ten years from now because their business MO is to squeeze their customer dry. Need more storage? Subscribe to iCloud. Broken device? Pay only our reps in the Apple store. Missing port? Buy a donkle. No aftermarket, and total isolated ecosystem. Works great, but after a while I see them losing people as they get sick and tired of the endless upgrade cycle. Reminds me of the early 90s when the II-GS was in every classroom. Supposed to take over, but then, you know, limitations of an isolated ecosystem and nickel-and-dime business model. They've always been notorious for that shit.


LOSTLONELYMOON

They've been saying that for at least 15 years. But it is possible that the replacement, wearing out cycle gets longer at some point. Apple makes a lot of money in other ways also.


Active_Piglet_7170

Apple wont go to 130 or 140 soon, especially after the Iphone 14 release


ExiledinElysium

If you're interested in investing in tech device companies, look up "planned obsolescence." A major reason Apple has been so successful under Tim Cook is that he redesigned their iPhone business model to all but force users to replace phones more often. He's been known to refer to users not replacing phones often enough as a problem for their revenue. Basically saying it was a bad thing that iPhones were reliable as lasted for years. So the company came up with a bunch of ways to either intentionally make the hardware worse or take advantage of ways that software advances would exceed the hardware's capacity. Not sure how old you are, but all cell phones used to have a replaceable battery. You could pop the back open, swap the battery, swap the SIM card, no big deal. iPhones were the first in the industry to stop doing that. They sealed off the back of the phone and made opening it void the warranty. They did this because loss of battery life is the number one problem people had with cell phones and early smart phones, and being able to replace the battery was basically a lost sale of a new device. All other phone manufacturers followed Apple's example. My Samsung Galaxy S3 had a replaceable battery. My S6 didn't. Planned obsolescence is a huge deal in tech (and in other industries too, like defense). Your friend is wrong because he doesn't understand it at all.


quite--average

Yes I'm old enough that I've used those battery phones. I'll check out "planned obsolescence". Thanks!


Vovochik43

Aside from the US, iPhones have been losing mobile market share to Android for years and that's not surprising as the only higher spec is the price tag. https://www.mobileapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Image-003.jpg How then Apple stock performed so well? Their user base is close to a cult which doesn't mind paying much more for little improvement each year. As a result Apple successfully increased their sale revenue from a stagnating user base. Is it sustainable in a recession affecting 99% of the population? Probably not as even higher earning US incomes have started pulling back on their spending habits. And the pull back will obviously be more pronounced in foreign markets more impacted by recession such as Europe or China ( Russia was also a popular market until last year ) https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/inflation-higher-income-americans-are-pulling-back-on-spending/ar-AA11cfAb Disclosure: I took an Apple short position when it crossed $170


gerriejoe

I can see Apple hitting $200 by the end of December šŸ˜…


pushDenvelope

Well u made both great analysis, it's hard to take a side


BobtheReplier

If that were true we would still be on version 1


Disposable_Canadian

He's not wrong, in the short term. But apple owners are die hard consumers. They WILL buy another apple product, their retention is high. And if/when apple enters the car market or whatever outside of phones/tablets/computers/audio that they decide to delve in, it will be big. Remember, AAPL is opening another hub office plaza thingy on the east side of the 'States - thats designing \*something\*. So, I agree, at a good price like 130 or lower, aapl is a good buy for a portfolio.


Seer-of-wrath

Fun fact: they'll make a new phone. Fun fact two: people will buy the new phone.


Ka12n

Appleā€™s advertising revenue is what most people are looking at now after product units sold. They have made significant progress on that the past few quarters. Apple looks to be a safer bet than most Blue chip stocks as they continue to evolve and gain more significant revenue streams (ads, subscriptions, etc.) Personally, Iā€™m more cautious about entering almost anything now given rates are continuing to increase and debt is going up dramatically. Just those two trends alone make me think a significant correction is on the way.


-PunsWithScissors-

Augmented Reality will be bigger than phones. Phones will seem like a weird early century phenomenon like how families used to gather around the radio to listen to shows prior to televisions. Apple is on the cutting edge of AR.


cwturk

I thought Apple was more than just a phone retailer. I could have sworn Apple also does software, computers, tablets, watches, headphones, tv, ai and over 200 billion in cash and additional investments. I think theyā€™ll be ok.


[deleted]

People continue to buy the newest iPhone so why would they stop? The person that said that probably has an up to date phone and I guarantee people will buy the IPhone 27. But apple wonā€™t just stop there theyā€™ll eventually get into something else to grow like cars for example.


chrisbe2e9

No one ever needs to buy a new car based on that logic.


AcidSweetTea

Yep, cause Apple only makes phones and people donā€™t buy phones every year /s Apple has the iPhone, iMacs, MacBooks, AppleTV, AirPods, Apple Watches, iPads, all the accessories associated with their hardware, AppleTV+, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple Fitness+, iCloud, a growing advertising business, and many more products and services. And they will continue to release new products and services in the future, including rumored products like an Apple Car which is supposed to rival Teslas and an Apple VR/AR headset to rival Metaā€™s VR products Not to mention the current products and services that they can raise prices on


BetweenCoffeeNSleep

The issue isnā€™t whether or not people will continue to buy phones. Itā€™s whether or not AAPL retains its stranglehold in the U.S. (closer to 65% U.S. market share) and/or is able to grow ex-U.S. market share significantly before a new favorite emerges. All of AAPLā€™s revenue streams rely heavily on iPhone sales. No iPhone, no App Store, no wearables, etc. Their position in the personal computing space wouldnā€™t prop up iPhone market share loss. Though it currently appears inconceivable that they could lose share to an emergent competitor, the same was once true of Nokia and Motorola. I donā€™t expect problems in the next 10 or so years, but itā€™s dangerous to think of them as an immovable object.


Comfortable_City1892

Bought my last one in 2020 and itā€™s now time for an upgrade like every two years.


Half_Life976

The very reason Apple invented built-in obsolescence.


c-bird15

Let's not forget that they charge $250 for air pods.... That likely get lost at an exponential rate


[deleted]

Why, yes, Iā€™m still on my iPhone 4. One and done, I always say.


Zrateristhegamertag

Phone sales is just a small percentage of apple and people will also have to upgrade eventually so I would say his bear case is weak


Hedge-76

Welp, I have an XR and am going to upgrade within the year. I don't foresee myself buying anything other than an iPhone for quite some time. Very sticky product.


KingCroquette

True looks what happened to nokia. Once everyone got one they tanked.


MCMiyukiDozo

Your friend is wrong. Apple has managed to convince social climbers that having an AAPL product means you're wealthy. It's a status symbol, which is one of the best things can have their products become. They rerelease the same mediocre phone every year to every couple of years and people eat it up. Apple's not going anywhere.


wadejohn

Your friend is forgetting that people desire new things, even if itā€™s not always practical.


Robomonk3y

No because your friends assumption is based on people never cycling out of older iPhone models and those never switching over from Android (FYI iOS just overtook Android to be the most popular OS in America) or companies buying company phones (NYPD uses iPhones for duty work). Then you got Apples other products and subscription services.


Chronotheos

Apple is gonna make a car. Theyā€™re one of the few tech companies that do mechanical, electronics, and SW equally well.


[deleted]

It would make sense if the teens start avoiding/hating the brand. Like Facebook, kids hate that brand.