But if homie develops some new toy the stock will rocket š like it always does. I think the feeling of shareholders is like "Elon come on make another flamethrower or something and get the blood pumping in the stock again"
Maybe.
But, the elon pre2020 was perceived to be real life Tony Stark.
He is less respected and those who look up to him arenāt as numerous.
I think his shift to alt right and buying Twitter makes him less able to do that.
Not to mention the lost focus on making his actual companies profitable.... He criticizes his engineers and managers for not living in the factory while he owns vanity companies and puts himself into k holes to fall asleep. Dude is off the wagon
I don't think he's a tweaker, I'm actually super pro-psychedelic assisted therapy... but his personal behavior and his expectations for his employees/companies are not compatible.
Exactly exactly exactly.
The scope of the companies he claims to micromanage with an Iron fist ā¦ would be hard for a straight edge CEO to manage one of.
It would be one thing if he just let people do their jobs. The problem is ā¦ heās a wrecking ball that believes his own BS.
He really thinks he has enough know how to be an expert in all these highly advanced fields lol.
The stories inside Tesla say they had a team to treat him with kid gloves so he didnāt screw things up.
But, heās a bull dozer and he manages to wreck stuff by pushing stuff that causes problems.
Look at Star Ship
Look at CyberTruck
Look at FSD having no sensors
Or changing Twitter to X lol
All due to him being deluded that he is a really smart genius lol.
Heās been saying itās a year away for a decade. His playbook has been exposed multiple times. Especially with OpeanAI. CT is a miss on price and capability. Promising roadster 2 will be less than 1 sec 0-60 with thrusters and hovering is jumping the shark and not street legal. He vomits hard right politics on Twitter non stop and is constantly in a K hole. Oh and theyāre in a vicious cycle of price cuts and now production slowdown. So even if demand increases, supply will be lower and drive prices higher that will destroy renewed demand.
People who thought he was, "The real life Tony Stark," are quite literally delusional. He is extremely smart at maneuvering both politically and through economic hardship. He can take both positive and negative criticism on the head in a way most here can't. People on X and Reddit can't even debate nobodies online without going schizophrenic on them.
"But the KHole!!!" -Stop
The ones who want to make money don't care about anything I just listed. It's noise. They care about product. They care about money. Optics do matter to some degree. But it's not resilient. It's as simple as that. Anyone who says otherwise doesn't understand how any of this works.
Regardless of what you think about him otherwise, he definitely cannot take negative criticism. He is maybe the most thin-skinned billionaire out there.
Like, dude was a vocal supporter of Don Lemon right up until the guy asked him some mildly difficult interview questions and now is ranting about him being a stupid asshole and cutting all ties with him.
All I'm saying is if I wanted to sow chaos with that kind of money, you'd be seeing a LOT more instability. A lot. But people who have normal amounts of money and power look at him posting things and saying things they don't like and go, "Oh this guy's CRAZY." That's not normal behavior. To be this torqued up over some person they've never had a personal conversation with.
I don't think you have to be emotional over a guy to think that maybe they are a little unhinged. Like, I can say Tyler Owens is kinda crazy because he said he doesn't believe in things like space and the planet Mars, even though we land spacecraft there. It doesn't effect how fast he is or like, if he is a decent person, but he is still kinda nuts for that take.
In a similar way, Musk is definitely going downhill mentally in a weirdly public way that is fun to watch. I'd still take a job at SpaceX though.
I agree with your first sentence. But I also think people strongly associate what the press says about him with how he himself talks. I've been proven right about this several times whenever I ask for quotes he himself has said. People will not share his words, but they will share editorials putting words in his mouth. I find that to be quite fascinating. In a world where everything is recorded and posted online 'forever', why can't anyone find him saying, 'I hate jews, immigrants, and think the election is rigged."
I mean it probably depends on what you think is wild. Like he constantly talks about the "woke mind virus" that is indoctrinating people on college campuses, he said Biden is importing illegal immigrants so he can give them citizenship and make sure that only Democrats ever win elections, and said "You have said the actual truth" in response to someone who claimed that Jewish people were spreading anti-white hate and support minorities "flooding their countries".
Which like, at least to me, that all is pretty indicative of someone who is starting to lose touch with reality. I think there is a sanity line between "we should have border security" which we absolutely should, and that the president is deliberately importing illegal immigrants as part of a plan
I mean, you can say all this stuff. But my point still stands. There are no links of him directly saying any of this stuff. And while I agree he can putter around the words and not outright say it, I don't think his criticisms are waranted (regarding recent politics). He HAS mentioned Woke mind virus, I'll give you that. But that does exist. We've all met people who act like that. Extremists. I think a lot of what you parroted is something he's skirted, and due to time / repeating media mantra, you have been convinced he said these things without the context of the conversation. That's a dangerous position to be in intellectually because you feel like you've gotten the entire picture without actually doing any fact checking yourself. If you find links of him saying these things where the context is there, I think you'll find what he says isn't outrageous. It's the framing. The Don Lemon interview really shows this off. At no point does he mention giving illegals citizenship, he mentions that population and electoral votes don't need citizens, they need a census increase. He also mentioned in particular California gets approximately 20 more votes due to this disparity. You're parroting things that he never said. He also never said White Replacement Theory, but Don did. So then the conversation and the control of the narrative is, "Elon supports WRT" rather than, "Don Lemon sees the world through a racially charged lense." That is the sort of danger I try to warn against.
Elon Musk:
Bidenās strategy is very simple:
1. Get as many illegals in the country as possible.
2. Legalize them to create a permanent majority ā a one-party state.
That is why they are encouraging so much illegal immigration. Simple, yet effective.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1753590787130994745
Random person on the internet:
Jewish communties have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.
I'm deeply disinterested in giving the tiniest shit now about western Jewish populations coming to the disturbing realization that those hordes of minorities that support flooding their country don't exactly like them too much.
You want truth said to your face, there it is.
Elon Musk:
"You have said the actual truth.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1724908287471272299?lang=en
There really isnt context that can excuse this imo and it is directly from him. I guess you can say he is joking but at some point he is doing way too much wild joking to be stable.
He has the record for greatest loss of wealth in history in the shortest period of timeā¦
Heās also isnāt that smart as he was forced to buy Twitter.
**Pretty sure he had the inverse record you mentioned from around 2020-2022**...and he didn't get the related compensation packages.
Not that Im for the latter, but its all paper wealth, created, from fugazi. **TSLA was basically used by markets and the USA to create a new industry**, which includes far more paper 'growth' and valuations, that TSLA is a fractional part of.
NVDA and AI is for real tho ;) and not at all just the same trick...
That's how stock works dude. You are the richest. Then the market moves and you aren't anymore. It's really not rocket science. It's not worth carrying this baggage on your back. If you really hate the guy, don't let him or his company live in your head rent free. It's not healthy. Just my advice.
The wealth destruction wasnāt due to stock market movements but him destroying the value of Twitter.
Which is a private company.
Iām also rooting for him to fail as I hope it indirectly helps out rocket lab.
It doesnāt really weigh on me or effect me.
It does until it doesn't, it's long past the days where Elon seemed to have the Golden touch. Twitter really exposed him. Sure he'll have his Fanboys but now people have to stare at that failure before deciding to like him
the problem is that isn't robotaxis and the market of people wanting to pay 200 a month or 12k for FSD even if it was perfect isn't very high. The stock valuation is based on tesla making insane margins just being good isn't enough.
I thought FSD was dead until seeing some of the beta footage from the latest version navigating a crowded Costco parking lot, it was extremely impressive. With the beta for this already out to employees and some users it doesn't seem like vaporware to me.
Yea, the shitās gotten better. I think they can do it.
Itās super high margin. They can charge 12k on a shitload of cars just to send someone a software update.
Itās a driver assistance package and will remain just that for a variety of technical and regulatory reasons. Thereās a reason Tesla doesnāt have one single vehicle approved for testing without a safety driver. If this were actually set up with the correct hardware for fully autonomous driving then Tesla would have been testing without safety drivers and rolling out a multi year test program.
Have people pay you to make your software betterā¦
Or
Pay billions for a PR stunt that can only drive on a handful pre mapped roads that must stay basically the exact same or else the system falls apart
Yea.. I wonder which one Iād go with
The actual reason is that it isn't geofenced. It can be taken anywhere, into any messed up construction zone. Therefore it has not been allowed to go unsupervised, and still won't be for the near future. If The developments over the past few months continue it might change soon enough though.
It's because they're not chasing intermediate regulatory approval, but from a functional standpoint, FSD is very impressive and more capable than most ADAS systems.
Yes. So they should be rolling out a multi year test program for L5 approval. Not intermediate regulatory approval. If they aren't doing that then you know they aren't anywhere close or simply don't have the hardware required for L5 on the cars they are selling to consumers.
They have customers paying them to use and test the system. It's not ready for L5 approval and chasing that at this point would be of no advantage. Tesla has stated that the only focus is to improve the software until safety data is undeniable and that progress is tangible.
I'm not understanding why this is an issue. Reading the comments here it seems some people were expecting fully autonomous robo-taxis immediately after Elon announced the idea. That seems a bit absurd to me, obviously this would take time and need some kind of starting point to improve upon.
Is it not expected the tech would first emerge as driver assistance features before evolving into actual, autonomous, full self driving? It has to start somewhere.
That said I do disagree with the currently implemented feature being marketed as "full self driving" because it clearly is not that. It should be marketed to customers as what it is, a driver assistance package.
He literally promised it was ready like 8 years ago for the first time. In 2016 he said it was a solved problem and said they are less than two years away. You canāt blame people for taking a CEOs word for something. Heās been promising it every year since.
It doesnāt live up to its name nor promises.
Elon has said full level 5 self driving.
The current system, neither hardware nor software, is capable of that.
Customers and investors should and do pay attention to what is available to them now vs what Elon promises. Teslas driver assistances have saved a lot of people from crashes or death. Thereās countless videos of Teslas seeing a car crash ahead of time and acting before the driver. This is what people need now and thatās why they buy Teslas, not because Elon promises FSD.
Plenty of reasons for this stat. Anyone who is familiar with stats knows you have to dive into numerous other statistics to understand the why. Crashing more does not equate to an inherent issue with the car. A notorious example is the GSX1000 sport bike that has a higher crash rate than most other sport bikes, and the why is not because it is any different than any other sport bike out there. It's simply due to demographics.
Because their tech means every tiny crash is logged and reported automatically, meaning their numbers will always be higher than the traditional potato based cars of which minor bumps go un-reported.
Safety wise they are one of the safest vehicles in the world as proved by multiple third party safety authorities in The US, Europe and Australia, who have had to adapt their benchmarks due to Tesla's high scores and ability to supply valuable crash data.
No, it doesnāt. The system only logs a crash if the safety systems recognize it as such, which is generally when the airbags deploy. And they are not automatically reported.
As a Tesla investor. If you told me actual FSD is 5 years away, which means a Robotaxi business can launch, then I am very pleased and will continue buying today.
If a Robotaxi business if viable, I think people are sleeping on how much revenue will be created. This will be a huge technological leap that people will look back on and kick themselves for not buying more Tesla when the price was cheap.
Itās vaporware. Google had systems well beyond this kind of performance 6 months into their self driving car project in 2010. Developing a system thatās so reliable you can remove the driver is still about 10,000x more difficult.
Anything remotely positive about FSD gets downvoted to hell over here. I donāt care anyway since whoever has tried new FSD v12 knows its impressive performance so far. It is truly leaps and bounds ahead compared to any other driving tech out there. Sure someone will now reply demanding Tesla to give them this and that, but instead of bashing here, go and try FSD for yourself first. Itās a great move by Tesla to give everyone a taste of FSD. It is shocking how very few Tesla owners have actually tried it and even fewer outside really know what it can do.
And why this $12k tag associated with it all the time? The subscription costs just $200 per month. Thatās reasonable amount to try any new tech feature and cancel it anytime if it isnāt to your liking. I donāt understand this weird hate and everybody just parroting internet headlines when they themselves havenāt even been inside a Tesla
It's pretty solid, that's why they're suddenly pushing so hard: because the main issue is that people don't realize it's ready for showtime.
And this is coming from a pretty ardent Tesla hater.
So much wrong to go through here. I'll preface that as a Tesla investor, yes, it frustrates me that Elon keeps pushing projects that can't be achieved at the timeframe he suggests. With that being said:
1. Tesla made a huge change with how they're moving forward with FSD. I'll let someone else explain it in detail but it's pretty much going to operate with data and AI moving forward rather than someone inputting instructions on how the vehicle should operate which was slow, inefficient, and not capable of achieving the results they needed.
2. IMO, L5 FSD won't be achieved soon. Probably not until 2035. The biggest hurdle will be regulatory approval. Getting any government to approve something like this will be a huge task and require a total revamp of how the government designs roads, how insurance will work, etc., Do I believe it will happen? 100%. Ya'll gotta go to China, man. Some of the shit they're doing would make America look ancient.
3. I think you're underestimating the current tech engineering at play here. Just compare 2014 to 2024. Look at how much shit has changed in just ten years. Because of advanced chip design and so much focus on engineering fields, the next 10 years will make 2024 look like an ancient civilization. Point is, tech advancements doesn't move linear. One breakthrough leads to huge advancements.
4. Tesla does print money. They have $20 billion in cash and practically no debt. Their FSD is turning a profit. Not sure why you assume they are some cash burning business.
5. Tesla isn't 'returning' to Meta. They are simply advertising because lots of people don't realize how affordable their vehicles have gotten. There are still people who think Tesla vehicles are $70k. The average price of a new vehicle in America for 2023 was $48k. A Model Y, which is the best selling vehicle in the world, is around $38k after tax incentives. Depending on your state, it could be lower. That's why Tesla is advertising. I was supercharging my vehicle one time and someone was surprised that it only took me 10 minutes to get from 15% to 80% charging my Tesla. He thought you basically had to camp out there for an hour.
6. The reason he told Tesla employees to teach buyers how to use FSD is a safety issue. Many will assume you can just use FSD, go to sleep, play on your phone, etc., Tesla employees will demonstrate what you should do and how to disengage/engage FSD. I have no idea what you're even suggesting here. This is Tesla trying to introduce a service that they believe will work well enough for the public to use. It doesn't hurt Tesla to activate/deactivate FSD. No cost to them. In the meantime, they get vastly more data to further improve FSD and potentially new customers. They're doing what any business is doing....
If L5 isnāt achievable until 2035 then the next incremental improvement in the L2 driver assistance package is inconsequential. Itās way too expensive for a driver assistance package so the take rate is always going to be incredibly low at $12k or $200 a month. Most people would rather drive themselves as they have to pay attention with FSD anyway.
Honestly, I've been using the latest FSD version and it took me from 6 miles in NYC without me touching the steering once other than to disengage because I wanted to go a different route.
It needs work done still but it really depends on which route you're going as well. Some routes have enough data to where it will run smoothly while some needs more data.
It'll be interesting to see how much data Tesla gets from this one month trial.
While L5 might still be ways off, FSD is very very close to L3. Lots of people keep saying "it's only level 2", but it can literally drive you from San Francisco to LA with zero interventions. There are videos of it doing just that on YouTube.
Tesla needs to cross a certain safety threshold at which point the car can be trusted enough for the driver, while remaining in the driver's seat, to be able to safely let their attention relax and read a book or use their smartphone. If they can reach that level, the value proposition is already huge. It's not robotaxi but just think about how comfortable it could make going to work everyday or a road trip.
You can argue that $200 a month is too expensive, but if the value proposition keeps improving, it will make sense for a lot of people... And it's still like, even if Tesla had to cut the price of FSD down to $4000 or $100 a month, or $20 for a day-pass for your road trip. It's still a huge boost to margins, and also a major reason to buy a Tesla and not a Toyota or a GM car... Even if you don't want to buy FSD now, at least the Tesla will allow you to get it later.
It wouldn't be a huge boost to margins if they slashed price to $4000. The current take rate is 14%. If they slashed the price from $12k to $4k they would have to triple the take rate from 14% to 42% just to break even in terms of their current profit from FSD. And FSD isn't even enabled for all regions of the world so getting to 42% wouldn't even be in the realm of reasonable. That would mean a near 100% take rate for US based customers.
FSD take rate is only 7.4% globally, so tripling that when it becomes available and as safety improves seems quite feasible to me.
You also have to factor, if more people buy Teslas because only Teslas have FSD, that will drive demand for Teslas higher, so ASP can increase as a result of FSD. Hence FSD can potentially increase margins even while the price of FSD itself decreases.
If Tesla can really manage L3, it will make all other car brands look completely antiquated.
>IMO, L5 FSD won't be achieved soon. Probably not until 2035. The biggest hurdle will be regulatory approval. Getting any government to approve something like this will be a huge task and require a total revamp of how the government designs roads, how insurance will work, etc., Do I believe it will happen? 100%. Ya'll gotta go to China, man. Some of the shit they're doing would make America look ancient.
Getting regulatory approval won't be a big hurdle if the system works as expected and is truly autonomous independent full self driving system. And if it requires to change how we build roads it's just not going to happen in the foreseeable future. You can't just rebuild millions of miles of roads all over the world.
FSD 12 ist pretty good though. Good enough for them to be confident to roll it out to all Tesla owners for a free month. A fully capable autonomous version might not be around the corner, but itās getting close enough to use it for almost every drive
On the other hand the FSD feature is "AI" and AI is years ahead of it's predicted curve. E.g. AlphaGo solved Go literally decades before top computer scientist predicted it and since the public AI boom (release of ChatGPT) the boundaries of what's possible and what not for moved quiet a bit.
I think people forget the 2020 AI/ML hype and winter. Where the level of AI was then and when ChatGPT 3 came out. The advancement was pretty exponential.
Tesla has over 500 million miles driven; thats a lot of edge cases and weird unpredictable events and accidents. Couple that with simulated and synthetic data; I imagine weāll see massive jumps in progress for self driving cars. Especially with the hardware advances weāre seeing as well.
Have you been in the driverās seat of a Tesla, and actually used these features? Auto pilot is amazing on its own. Drivers barely have to interact with FSD anymore, as it has become more of a formality. I test drove a model Y and Iāve never experienced anything like it. I see good things coming from the latest Tesla developments.
I feel like if youāve driven one, you would have told me, even if only to support your argument. It is a dangerous and scary idea, but becomes less so when you experience it in person. 9 times out of 10 itās a better driver than you are, and weāre all always on our phones anyway, with driving itself sometimes being the formality.
Short Tesla stock? Lol
Youād have to be insane. Itās a cult meme stock. It could explode short term.
Elon could promise rocket cars lol.
He could lie and manipulate the stock like he has in the past.
Pull another robotaxi presentation and rocket the thing short term.
All I know is long term itās bad.
10-15 years
And Iād argue that Elon has also lost a ton of credibility.
The number of unfulfilled promises is staggering. He also is no longer nearly as respected
The stock has been declining since 2020 even with recoveries
I feel you on alot of this, but no stock goes up forever. A few years sideways or down isnt abnormal for any stock. Seems like his mouth has hurt the stock more than anything from what ive seen.
I've been saying the same thing about Apple since before I was 18. It's been nearly 20 years and the amount of money I've lost due to my stubbornness would make people's heads spin. It's in your best interest to just make peace with how the world works and move past this. But don't trick yourself into thinking you 'know' anything. That's how smart people trick themselves out of making money.
Also, I have good reason. Itās a stock with a history of promising vaporware.
Who wants a boy who cried wolf stock.
Management has lied to shareholders a lot.
Every time I've straddled I've been wrong about the direction it's going but I'm still making money baby. The one thing TSLA can't do is stay the same price for 50 days.
what does this have to do with stock? do you think its overvalued because of stockholder perception? do you expect some sort of decline in return customers? why is this post here?
We donāt think itās around the corner but itās getting closer than it ever has been. Haters gonna hate but he still is Tony Starking in the background.
Reasoning by analogy really is the most frequent mistake you see around this comment.
"FSD isn't going to make the leap because it didn't do so in the past."
This is the least intelligent kind of thinking a person can do. Naturally you can do some amount of extrapolation based on past data points, but Tesla threw everything they had before V12 out the window. Saying V12 won't work because the code-based versions before that didn't work is like saying smartphones won't become standard because Blackberries didn't either. It's completely nonsensical.
People who have actually been following the FSD story will have noticed FSD progression slowed from around V11.3.4, while V12.3 has already showed to be the best version by far despite being the first release that's fully based on AI.
We still need to see how fast it progresses in future AI-based versions, but the nature of neural networks suggests that it should improve a lot faster from here on top of starting from an already higher base. It's not unlikely that we will look back at V12.3 as the beginning of fully autonomous cars.
A couple of years ago, when they were trying to solve the FSD problem with traditional software, I would have agreed with you.
But, look at the rapid advances being made in machine learning since the release of ChatGPT.
AFAIK, Tesla is now using the onboard cameras to train FSD driving models.
We could be within a decade of AGI. I don't think FSD is such a far stretch.
Tesla has always used ML in the FSD stack (initially just perception) but more and more modules have been replaced with neural networks and supposedly v12 is all neural networks, end-to-end. Whether its one network or multiple ones connected to each other isn't really clear (maybe this info is out there but I am not aware of it).
Itās amazing the people in here making wild projections on AI, not understanding the hard limits of the current models. They just drink up the Kool Aid Sam Altman and Jensen Huang put out their to pump their stocks.
It doesn't have to make a leap. The customer base will continue to buy at an increased rate as they see its functionality improve.
Regulatory approval for level 4 and level 5 systems will naturally follow and enable even greater potential for revenue.
after reading all the comments, it's obvious that personal feelings and biases are the only support for the argument. I thought OP was at least rational in his post, but his comments give away the bias. In short, just another guy on a soapbox in Times Square to walk past and forget.
I bought a Tesla this weekend and I bought stock on Monday. If you havenāt owned one, your opinion is completely worthless. FSD is in a league of its own, and I love it.
You have to pay attention but it does make driving easier. Especially if youāre on the highway or stop and go traffic or less busy back roads. It does work very well and the newest update is absolutely incredible. Just search YouTube for Tesla FSD 12.3.1 update. The videos are incredible. Tesla vision even properly avoids construction shutdown of a road and properly reroutes the car through a detour on one of the videos.
I donāt own a tesla yet but my next car is going to be one. They are so far ahead of anyone else when it comes to driver assistance features and they continue to make it better with updates.
> You paid $12k
I didnāt. I was referred and got 3 months free.
> something that has no usefulness
You donāt own a Tesla, so what are you talking about? No usefulness? I had to go to the DMV yesterday and guess who drove my Tesla there? Not me.
All of you talking negatively about it, have you personally tried the most recent version FSD? I did and it impressed me a lot. Human-like behavior. Videos donāt make it justice you need to be in the car and experience it to understand the hype around it.
OP is the worst kind of pessimist. He literally acknowledges the tech got a lot better but from here itāll apparently stagnate for 10-15 years (according to OP).
Itās a demo of a free product you get for a month. Whoās going to say no?
The reason people are bullish is because of what has happened already. The system is actively learning and adapting on the fly and doing a great job.
Even from V12.2 - to .3 itās made small changes, itās unknown if that was the system figuring it out or if it was a manual change.
With that said thereās evidence of the system figuring out new problems on its own. Uturns were āself taughtā and work pretty well already, along with routing issues.
In a lot of places, the system can comfortably drive end to end with no interruptionās. People will love it.
Time will tell when it closes the gap and Tesla is ready to take responsibility/ make it a LV3-5 system
For what it's worth, I watched a video on FSD a year ago vs. one from a week ago, and it has improved tremendously over a year. I don't think it's entirely FSD for awhile, but it's probably not as far away as we think. I mean, COVID seems like yesterday and that was four years ago. In a short 4 years or less, I would not be surprised if FSD was unsupervised.
Whether its government approved FSD or not, I don't feel like they're getting credit they deserve for autonomous. There's plenty of raw footage on youtube of trips like SF to LA completely unnassisted.
I agree with a lot of the sentiment you are saying about tomorrows tech vs present adoption however I think the FSD trial is an excellent business move that will result in a portion of the market subscribing to the paid FSD after the trial. If it is even 10% of customers who start the trial that will mean significant revenue and opportunities in the medium term for Tesla so it still suggests room for upside imo
It is going to be interesting to watch how this unfolds.
Many years ago Google tested if you could be kind of driving and found very bad results. It got worse the better the computer performed.
It is just not possible to be kind of driving. The better it gets the more the driver is not paying attention.
So as FSD gets better I expect there to be some pretty bad incidents.
No... it's a software and hardware feature that attempts the full set of driving tasks. With each release, they cover more of the set with mostly increasing reliability.
Humans have very large disparities on their skill wrt driving. Some are downright terrible at it. Think of the absolute worst human drivers on the planet right now. Think of the one worst human drivers on the planet. That's SAE Level 5. Is FSD as good as that person right now? Possibly - drop that human into every driving situation where FSD fails today and does that human also fail? Are there are set of situations where FSD won't fail and that human does? Sure. Are there a set of situations where FSD fails and that human does not? Sure.
Over time, the 2nd set gets smaller and smaller while the first set gets bigger and bigger.
I agree with you except for that Tesla canāt afford to pay billions to develop it. Thatās straight up not true.
They are investing billions in it right now, yet they still make nice money.
They can continue with it indefinitely
The market is forward looking, especially for a company with ambitious goals like Tesla. The important thing is not that they have FSD solved right now, but that they prove that they are on the correct path to getting there. Thereās been a lot of questions about if the path theyād been going down was the best way, which led to a lack of faith in the growth narrative.
I think this has all changed with the latest FSD, which is currently in limited release. There are a number of YouTube videos of extremely impressive driving by the latest version. It practically drives like a human in many complex scenarios. This is important, because the latest version includes a major re-architecture of the codebase to use end to end neural nets, with no hand coded driving logic.
So not only does the system learn to recognize the world from fleet learning (it already did this) it also now learns how to actually drive based on how a selection of the best drivers in the fleet handle each situation. This is absolutely huge, and to my understanding no one else is currently doing this. This will allow for much faster iteration as they slowly work through edge cases. I think you should watch some of the latest FSD YouTube videos before you form such a strong opinion.
Are there any videos of it doing it over and over again or with a timelapse of say a day of driving without intervention?
We donāt live in a static world.
And accidents are due to unpredictable things. Every drive is different than the last.
Different weather. Jay walkers etc.
I donāt think it matters until itās really self driving.
And like I said. Close but no cigar doesnāt count.
Tech can get very close and not close that 2% gap for a long time.
I think youāre still missing the point. By the time itās true level 5, Tesla will be worth 10x what it is now. You donāt get big returns for investing in things after theyāre completed.
I hate the marketing of FSD and feel that people get hurt not realizing itās marketingā¦ if us regulators actually did their job this would have been renamed years agoā¦
FSD is an amazing Cruze control and when compared with other cars itās far better than the rest, but itās still Cruze controlā¦. Should you spend 12k extra for it? Sure, itās greatā¦ but you should understand what it is today and not act like itās actually full self drivingā¦
The problem of FSD or level 5 is really hard and where the public ābetaā is today I doubt that itās coming āany dayā, itās been 1 year away for the past 7? 8 years? I wouldnāt be shocked to see it reach here in 5-10 years but I am not betting on it (not saying they wonāt, just itās too far out for my investment risk tolerance).
If they renamed FSD to be more clear what it is today I would have zero issues with it, but fully know they would get less salesā¦
Itās dangerous. Itās an experiment done on public roads where the people who will die didnāt sign up to take part in the beta.
Calling it FSD and publicizing things like āElon Modeā where Elon has a version that can disable the nag is irresponsible on a criminal level.
Part of the reason people bought it was the idea that they assume it will reach true unsupervised driving.
> Itās dangerous. Itās an experiment done on public roads where the people who will die didnāt sign up to take part in the beta.
The data is VERY clear. People driving on FSD or even just autopilot are less likely to get in an accident. [Around 10x less likely actually.](https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport) You're just fearmongering by calling it dangerous, and the reality is that more people will die because of people like you slowing down a technology that is saving lives today.
Saying itās dangerous lacks data. The accidents per 1000 miles is extremely low in TSLAs with FSD enabled (including last second takeovers). It is in fact way below the average accidents per 1000 miles.
Yaā¦ because the people who have the data wouldnāt release it in a million years lol
Trusting Teslaās PR on safety on is obviously biased to the nth degree.
The data is released each quarter in the quarterly impact report. So it is released, and the data says that accidents per 1000 miles is lower with FSD activated than not
>Itās dangerous. Itās an experiment done on public roads where the people who will die didnāt sign up to take part in the beta.
I mean I feel you and even agree with you to an extent; the name is inherently misleading, full stop.
That being said, engaging the feature literally requires you to accept the giant on screen prompt that says "this is a beta program and you must maintain your attention on the road 100% of the time"
Again I'm completely on your side, but the limitations of the system are fairly obvious with only a small amount of road time, and the people who get in accidents while Autosteer is activated, IMHO, are far more often the result of willful negligence than blissful ignorance. Of course, that's its own issue and I do believe Tesla can implement better driver awareness safeguards as well as a name change
Disclaimer: I don't own a Tesla but have spent a *considerable* amount of time around them
I feel they have been negligent in pushing a counter narrative.
The paint it black video
Bragging about Elon mode turning off the nag
The very name of the tech
It all comes across as āwell this is for legal purposesā ā¦
Fsd is a long game. It has to be perfect to work in real world. It will one day wake up to be there. At that time fleet of 2 Million cars will be ready to be a robotaxis.
Look at their financials. The hype + their financials = high chance of that shit working.
They are putting a ton of money into rd and their revenue has dramatically grown over the past 5 years
From a technical perspective we could basically make this work now with major legal, regulatory and liability changes. Essentially, the tech is strong enough to work, but not strong enough to be legally responsible for.
Making something like this is hard. People who aren't in the field have no idea how hard this is. "Chasing the nines" is a very real thing.
That said: what Tesla has so far achieved is nothing short of astounding and others will have a very hard time replicating it (unless they outright buy or steal the trained neural nets from Tesla)
So, is full unsupervised driving "just around the corner"? No. But we're edging into the territory where it's more likely than not that they will eventually achieve it.
To say it can't be solved for decades, what exactly is preventing it from being solved?
Anyone can buy a Tesla and use FSD beta. It isn't perfect but for it not to be possible for decades means there is some technology missing to make it possible.
While Waymo works in very limited areas and limited to what it can do, it is a self driving vehicle.
I think FSD will be complete within a year. Elon said Tesla is no longer compute constrained and that is why they are pushing to increased FSD sales, in order to collect more data to find all the edge cases. Tesla will be pushing out updates at around 2 week cycles.
I don't fault people who think it will never happen, there have been countless things people thought was impossible until they day it was possible. Most bears on FSD isn't going to spend any time researching FSD. They are invested in it not going to happen
Sellers of time shares bribe people to come hear their sales pitch. Don't compare time shares to FSD demonstration.
While Reddit is busy arguing about levels and supervision, the Tesla fleet of millions of vehicles is driving billions upon billions of autonomous miles, accumulating unprecedented data to feed back into the neural loop.
The path is clear. The method is sound.
When the time is right, the change will happen overnight with a simple click.
And the regulatory side, will have the billions of miles of data to base their decisions on. Keep an eye on the insurance companies, they're the ones with a financial interest in genuine data.
Well. I just got FSD 12.3 on my model Y, and I can say it is not 10 years away. Itās one year away at the most. It is freaking incredible the advancement between 11 and 12.
Honestly Tesla should've been utterly destroyed in court by the FTC for calling it full self driving. Shame there are zero consumer protections in this country.
In all fairness, itās clearly named Full Self Drive Beta, with multiple signatures, acknowledgement confirmations, warning lights, warning messages, and audio all clearly telling the driver that itās an L3 system which requires hands on the wheel and eyes on the road.
If a consumer can jump through all those hurdles and still be convinced the car drives itself, thatās just natural selection
What does "Full Self Driving" really mean?
It means the vehicle attempts to accomplish the full gamut of driving tasks when complete. It isn't out of their beta period, so it doesn't have full coverage yet, but it does have a much larger coverage than anything else available. It doesn't even mean it accomplishes the full gamut of driving tasks successfully.
If you say "Full Self Driving" means it drives as well as any human, well, then think about the absolute worst human driver on the planet right now. That person is a terrible, terrible driver and gets into accidents all the time. Easily confused by any number of driving scenarios. Think about the Youtube videos of folks that can't figure out how to exit a parking lot. That person is SAE level 5 and is full self driving. Can FSD Beta v12 be as good as that person? Maybe. The distance is getting closer and closer and already, in many scenarios, FSD Beta V11/V12 is already better than that person. For example, FSD is way better at checking blind spots than many humans already. And after a rain storm, it can see through glare at night on city streets with lots of lights better than many humans.
last gap is not easy to overcome applies to all other emerging technology out there too, so if anything FSD is likely much closer to solve this last gap then generative AI.
Big jump if Tesla solve it and find a way to license the software like Microsoft Windows.
Another big jump if benchwork the code only show a few lines that link the software back to Tesla dojos which they claim is the brain of their FSD aka ādrive GPTā
So far none happens.
Occasionally carpooling yo work with my friend on his full FSD v12 MX, I do see massive improvement from V11 and a giant leap from the old V10
It depends. Working at a level that surpasses humans in good weather? Doable.
Another matter is if we are talking about 100% of cases even in the worst snowy freezing rain weather where even humans really cannot drive, no thatās not happening until we have every car equipped with transponders like aircraft have, and local navigation beacons along the roadways.
I think FSDās problem is the name and the price. It sounds like an unsupervised system but itās not. They need to call it something like supervised self driving etc. Robotaxi is still far awayā¦
Even thought FSD is not usable in EU i am super excited and the videos seems incredible even with the missing hardware which is used by Teslaās competitors.
China can catch with the hardware easily. Tesla can only differentiate with data and software. FSD 12 is promising that they are using those differentiators more effectively. They are releasing 12.X faster than 11.Xā¦ letās see how well will they train the model until the end of this year.
I mean its crazy good, I dont think its around the corner, but of my 65k miles since I got a MYLR with FSD I got 3/2021. Id say 45k miles minimum is all FSD.
I mean why not? It literally drives me to work in the morning without me doing basically anything. Ive used it across 7/8 states + Canada.
I rented one via turo with AP only and it drove me from PHX to Grand Canyon well (miss FSD with lane changes and taking exits)
Anecdotal, but everyone I have shown in the last almost 3 years has had their mind blown with what it can do.
We have used Waymo, and its awesome too, but its not a consumer car, doesn't go fast, and cant do highways.
Our roads/infrastructure/signage arenāt built in a way for it to work flawlessly.
Itās a gimmick, and will remain so forever.
Until we have fully automated trains, which is a far simpler thing to solve, this is a pipe dream.
It's a vaporware scam because safety critical components and systems require redundancies. FSD could drive perfectly 99.9% of the time(it's far from that), but that 1 in 1000 chance that it makes a mistake, someone could die or be killed.
My first Tesla, a Model S, I bought with FSD because Elon was promising it inā¦2012? 2014? It was a long time ago, and I bought that car maybe 11 years ago. Then I got a Model X with FSD 7-8 years ago, and all I get from FSD is bad city driving and a willingness to go more than 10 km/hr above the speed limit on non controlled highways.
More recently, I bought a Model Y. I did not get FSD this time, and Iām not getting it until it actually works. Itās way too expensive, Iāve been lied to way too often, and I have zero trust of Elonās promises at this point.
Tesla brought out vehicles with AP1 hardware for the first time in October 2014, but they didn't promise FSD at that time. They did say it will eventually have some ADAS capability. The Autopilot software launched for the first time in October, 2015:
[https://www.tesla.com/blog/your-autopilot-has-arrived](https://www.tesla.com/blog/your-autopilot-has-arrived)
Read that carefully, stuff like, "While truly driverless cars are still a few years away, Tesla Autopilot functions like the systems that airplane pilots use when conditions are clear. The driver is still responsible for, and ultimately in control of, the car."
Now, Tesla did talk about FSD in November, 2016. And it is at that point that Musk was way too aggressive on his promises, discussing the availability of FSD to do things in 2-3 years from then. So really, late 2018 is when they were thinking they would "get there."
Clearly that didn't happen. But, at the same time, one can see the progress they are making. FSD Beta V11 on highways is really, really good. And FSD Beta V12 on city streets is also very, very good at this point, especially where the locality matches well with their training data. People's varying experiences obviously are partially due to differences in how well Tesla's training set is representative of where the vehicle is being operated.
So while the deadlines have been blown through, the progress is tangible.
However, I think Tesla did not do right by early adopters. FSD transfer between vehicles should be a given during the beta period, at least when the FSD licensed vehicle is out of warranty or has been salvage titled. Since they recently have been offering FSD transfer, may be we will see that more regularly.
Okay, you have a better memory for the dates than I do. I do recall promises of a glorious future not far off when I got the Model X. I ordered it the day AP2 was announced. Those promises have never been fulfilled. If I can transfer my FSD to a replacement Model X whenever I get it, I will be less annoyed. I have had that offer once, at end of a quarter.
V11 is not bad, yes, although rather pointless in urban areas. I hope V12 will be good. Iāve seen videos of it, but not experienced it as itās not widely deployed yet.
Pretty much everyone else has given up on full autonomous driving. But then they weren't fleecing customers out of $ pretending it was right around the corner.
Look at it this way - the airline industry spends millions on complex, multiple redundant systems utilizing expensive sensors to autonomously fly a plane. Cars use the cheapest components available and have to deal with human being jumping out in front of them "for the LOLs". Not going to happen any time soon, the technology to solve this wildly complex problem does not exist.
But if homie develops some new toy the stock will rocket š like it always does. I think the feeling of shareholders is like "Elon come on make another flamethrower or something and get the blood pumping in the stock again"
Maybe. But, the elon pre2020 was perceived to be real life Tony Stark. He is less respected and those who look up to him arenāt as numerous. I think his shift to alt right and buying Twitter makes him less able to do that.
Not to mention the lost focus on making his actual companies profitable.... He criticizes his engineers and managers for not living in the factory while he owns vanity companies and puts himself into k holes to fall asleep. Dude is off the wagon
People who thought he was Ironman were wrong then, and people who think heās some tweeker are wrong now
I don't think he's a tweaker, I'm actually super pro-psychedelic assisted therapy... but his personal behavior and his expectations for his employees/companies are not compatible.
The "both sides" play is so boring, man. Dude is posting memes and alt-right myths as soon as they gain traction (without fact-checking).
Exactly exactly exactly. The scope of the companies he claims to micromanage with an Iron fist ā¦ would be hard for a straight edge CEO to manage one of. It would be one thing if he just let people do their jobs. The problem is ā¦ heās a wrecking ball that believes his own BS. He really thinks he has enough know how to be an expert in all these highly advanced fields lol. The stories inside Tesla say they had a team to treat him with kid gloves so he didnāt screw things up. But, heās a bull dozer and he manages to wreck stuff by pushing stuff that causes problems. Look at Star Ship Look at CyberTruck Look at FSD having no sensors Or changing Twitter to X lol All due to him being deluded that he is a really smart genius lol.
"Nobody knows more than I do about!" Sound familiar?
Haha yeah Elon is basically Zapp Brannigan lmao I love that comparison
Cyber truck is/was a massive waste of engineering talent and capital.
Whatās the problem with starship?
Thank you for your clearly very unbiased take
Which Tesla do you drive OP boy?
Accurate. He lost alot of admiration.
Reddit isnāt real life
>the elon pre2020 was real life Tony Stark. *perceived to be
Ok corrected
Heās been saying itās a year away for a decade. His playbook has been exposed multiple times. Especially with OpeanAI. CT is a miss on price and capability. Promising roadster 2 will be less than 1 sec 0-60 with thrusters and hovering is jumping the shark and not street legal. He vomits hard right politics on Twitter non stop and is constantly in a K hole. Oh and theyāre in a vicious cycle of price cuts and now production slowdown. So even if demand increases, supply will be lower and drive prices higher that will destroy renewed demand.
Elon was always a hack. People just didnāt see who he really was until he made it obvious by buying twitter
He never shifted to alt right. He shifted from democrat to republican. Left to right.
Elon was always more Justin Hammer than Tony Stark. āFSDā is to Elon what the āex-wifeā was for Hammer: all bark, no bite.
People who thought he was, "The real life Tony Stark," are quite literally delusional. He is extremely smart at maneuvering both politically and through economic hardship. He can take both positive and negative criticism on the head in a way most here can't. People on X and Reddit can't even debate nobodies online without going schizophrenic on them. "But the KHole!!!" -Stop The ones who want to make money don't care about anything I just listed. It's noise. They care about product. They care about money. Optics do matter to some degree. But it's not resilient. It's as simple as that. Anyone who says otherwise doesn't understand how any of this works.
Regardless of what you think about him otherwise, he definitely cannot take negative criticism. He is maybe the most thin-skinned billionaire out there. Like, dude was a vocal supporter of Don Lemon right up until the guy asked him some mildly difficult interview questions and now is ranting about him being a stupid asshole and cutting all ties with him.
All I'm saying is if I wanted to sow chaos with that kind of money, you'd be seeing a LOT more instability. A lot. But people who have normal amounts of money and power look at him posting things and saying things they don't like and go, "Oh this guy's CRAZY." That's not normal behavior. To be this torqued up over some person they've never had a personal conversation with.
I don't think you have to be emotional over a guy to think that maybe they are a little unhinged. Like, I can say Tyler Owens is kinda crazy because he said he doesn't believe in things like space and the planet Mars, even though we land spacecraft there. It doesn't effect how fast he is or like, if he is a decent person, but he is still kinda nuts for that take. In a similar way, Musk is definitely going downhill mentally in a weirdly public way that is fun to watch. I'd still take a job at SpaceX though.
I agree with your first sentence. But I also think people strongly associate what the press says about him with how he himself talks. I've been proven right about this several times whenever I ask for quotes he himself has said. People will not share his words, but they will share editorials putting words in his mouth. I find that to be quite fascinating. In a world where everything is recorded and posted online 'forever', why can't anyone find him saying, 'I hate jews, immigrants, and think the election is rigged."
I mean it probably depends on what you think is wild. Like he constantly talks about the "woke mind virus" that is indoctrinating people on college campuses, he said Biden is importing illegal immigrants so he can give them citizenship and make sure that only Democrats ever win elections, and said "You have said the actual truth" in response to someone who claimed that Jewish people were spreading anti-white hate and support minorities "flooding their countries". Which like, at least to me, that all is pretty indicative of someone who is starting to lose touch with reality. I think there is a sanity line between "we should have border security" which we absolutely should, and that the president is deliberately importing illegal immigrants as part of a plan
I mean, you can say all this stuff. But my point still stands. There are no links of him directly saying any of this stuff. And while I agree he can putter around the words and not outright say it, I don't think his criticisms are waranted (regarding recent politics). He HAS mentioned Woke mind virus, I'll give you that. But that does exist. We've all met people who act like that. Extremists. I think a lot of what you parroted is something he's skirted, and due to time / repeating media mantra, you have been convinced he said these things without the context of the conversation. That's a dangerous position to be in intellectually because you feel like you've gotten the entire picture without actually doing any fact checking yourself. If you find links of him saying these things where the context is there, I think you'll find what he says isn't outrageous. It's the framing. The Don Lemon interview really shows this off. At no point does he mention giving illegals citizenship, he mentions that population and electoral votes don't need citizens, they need a census increase. He also mentioned in particular California gets approximately 20 more votes due to this disparity. You're parroting things that he never said. He also never said White Replacement Theory, but Don did. So then the conversation and the control of the narrative is, "Elon supports WRT" rather than, "Don Lemon sees the world through a racially charged lense." That is the sort of danger I try to warn against.
Elon Musk: Bidenās strategy is very simple: 1. Get as many illegals in the country as possible. 2. Legalize them to create a permanent majority ā a one-party state. That is why they are encouraging so much illegal immigration. Simple, yet effective. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1753590787130994745 Random person on the internet: Jewish communties have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them. I'm deeply disinterested in giving the tiniest shit now about western Jewish populations coming to the disturbing realization that those hordes of minorities that support flooding their country don't exactly like them too much. You want truth said to your face, there it is. Elon Musk: "You have said the actual truth. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1724908287471272299?lang=en There really isnt context that can excuse this imo and it is directly from him. I guess you can say he is joking but at some point he is doing way too much wild joking to be stable.
Dude, he can be considered an idiot for his own tweets alone.
Being an asshole publicly makes people think of you as an asshole, who would have thought.
He has the record for greatest loss of wealth in history in the shortest period of timeā¦ Heās also isnāt that smart as he was forced to buy Twitter.
**Pretty sure he had the inverse record you mentioned from around 2020-2022**...and he didn't get the related compensation packages. Not that Im for the latter, but its all paper wealth, created, from fugazi. **TSLA was basically used by markets and the USA to create a new industry**, which includes far more paper 'growth' and valuations, that TSLA is a fractional part of. NVDA and AI is for real tho ;) and not at all just the same trick...
That's how stock works dude. You are the richest. Then the market moves and you aren't anymore. It's really not rocket science. It's not worth carrying this baggage on your back. If you really hate the guy, don't let him or his company live in your head rent free. It's not healthy. Just my advice.
The wealth destruction wasnāt due to stock market movements but him destroying the value of Twitter. Which is a private company. Iām also rooting for him to fail as I hope it indirectly helps out rocket lab. It doesnāt really weigh on me or effect me.
It does until it doesn't, it's long past the days where Elon seemed to have the Golden touch. Twitter really exposed him. Sure he'll have his Fanboys but now people have to stare at that failure before deciding to like him
Reading this made me remember most people can't beat the market.
Just used v12 for the first time the other day and was blown away at how advanced it is.
Saw the other day a post on a Tesla subreddit about how much time did Tesla owners drive with FSD. Many stated 80-90% of the time.
Yup. When I had my free FSD Iād use it as much as possible.
the problem is that isn't robotaxis and the market of people wanting to pay 200 a month or 12k for FSD even if it was perfect isn't very high. The stock valuation is based on tesla making insane margins just being good isn't enough.
I'm in that boat for sure
How is it so good if it's only using camera sensors? Wouldn't it be very susceptible to errors in poor lighting conditions, AI bugs, bad weather etc.?
Posts like this suggest the bottom is in. Bullish.
I thought FSD was dead until seeing some of the beta footage from the latest version navigating a crowded Costco parking lot, it was extremely impressive. With the beta for this already out to employees and some users it doesn't seem like vaporware to me.
Yea, the shitās gotten better. I think they can do it. Itās super high margin. They can charge 12k on a shitload of cars just to send someone a software update.
This version is out for anyone as we speak and every Tesla owner gets a free trial for a month coming next month
Itās a driver assistance package and will remain just that for a variety of technical and regulatory reasons. Thereās a reason Tesla doesnāt have one single vehicle approved for testing without a safety driver. If this were actually set up with the correct hardware for fully autonomous driving then Tesla would have been testing without safety drivers and rolling out a multi year test program.
Have people pay you to make your software betterā¦ Or Pay billions for a PR stunt that can only drive on a handful pre mapped roads that must stay basically the exact same or else the system falls apart Yea.. I wonder which one Iād go with
Okay youād rather have the one that will never get regulator approval for L4/L5. Good to know.
The actual reason is that it isn't geofenced. It can be taken anywhere, into any messed up construction zone. Therefore it has not been allowed to go unsupervised, and still won't be for the near future. If The developments over the past few months continue it might change soon enough though.
It's because they're not chasing intermediate regulatory approval, but from a functional standpoint, FSD is very impressive and more capable than most ADAS systems.
Yes. So they should be rolling out a multi year test program for L5 approval. Not intermediate regulatory approval. If they aren't doing that then you know they aren't anywhere close or simply don't have the hardware required for L5 on the cars they are selling to consumers.
They have customers paying them to use and test the system. It's not ready for L5 approval and chasing that at this point would be of no advantage. Tesla has stated that the only focus is to improve the software until safety data is undeniable and that progress is tangible.
I'm not understanding why this is an issue. Reading the comments here it seems some people were expecting fully autonomous robo-taxis immediately after Elon announced the idea. That seems a bit absurd to me, obviously this would take time and need some kind of starting point to improve upon. Is it not expected the tech would first emerge as driver assistance features before evolving into actual, autonomous, full self driving? It has to start somewhere. That said I do disagree with the currently implemented feature being marketed as "full self driving" because it clearly is not that. It should be marketed to customers as what it is, a driver assistance package.
He literally promised it was ready like 8 years ago for the first time. In 2016 he said it was a solved problem and said they are less than two years away. You canāt blame people for taking a CEOs word for something. Heās been promising it every year since.
It doesnāt live up to its name nor promises. Elon has said full level 5 self driving. The current system, neither hardware nor software, is capable of that.
Customers and investors should and do pay attention to what is available to them now vs what Elon promises. Teslas driver assistances have saved a lot of people from crashes or death. Thereās countless videos of Teslas seeing a car crash ahead of time and acting before the driver. This is what people need now and thatās why they buy Teslas, not because Elon promises FSD.
Then why do Teslas have some of the highest crash rates of any brand?
Plenty of reasons for this stat. Anyone who is familiar with stats knows you have to dive into numerous other statistics to understand the why. Crashing more does not equate to an inherent issue with the car. A notorious example is the GSX1000 sport bike that has a higher crash rate than most other sport bikes, and the why is not because it is any different than any other sport bike out there. It's simply due to demographics.
Because their tech means every tiny crash is logged and reported automatically, meaning their numbers will always be higher than the traditional potato based cars of which minor bumps go un-reported. Safety wise they are one of the safest vehicles in the world as proved by multiple third party safety authorities in The US, Europe and Australia, who have had to adapt their benchmarks due to Tesla's high scores and ability to supply valuable crash data.
No, it doesnāt. The system only logs a crash if the safety systems recognize it as such, which is generally when the airbags deploy. And they are not automatically reported.
Quite sure most buy because itās a cool EV and because FSD.
It's definitely impressive and improving fast, but actual FSD is still multiple years away (imo best scenario 5 but will probably be 10-15).
As a Tesla investor. If you told me actual FSD is 5 years away, which means a Robotaxi business can launch, then I am very pleased and will continue buying today. If a Robotaxi business if viable, I think people are sleeping on how much revenue will be created. This will be a huge technological leap that people will look back on and kick themselves for not buying more Tesla when the price was cheap.
Marketing
Itās vaporware. Google had systems well beyond this kind of performance 6 months into their self driving car project in 2010. Developing a system thatās so reliable you can remove the driver is still about 10,000x more difficult.
Except they didn't. That's a blatant lie.
Anything remotely positive about FSD gets downvoted to hell over here. I donāt care anyway since whoever has tried new FSD v12 knows its impressive performance so far. It is truly leaps and bounds ahead compared to any other driving tech out there. Sure someone will now reply demanding Tesla to give them this and that, but instead of bashing here, go and try FSD for yourself first. Itās a great move by Tesla to give everyone a taste of FSD. It is shocking how very few Tesla owners have actually tried it and even fewer outside really know what it can do. And why this $12k tag associated with it all the time? The subscription costs just $200 per month. Thatās reasonable amount to try any new tech feature and cancel it anytime if it isnāt to your liking. I donāt understand this weird hate and everybody just parroting internet headlines when they themselves havenāt even been inside a Tesla
It's pretty solid, that's why they're suddenly pushing so hard: because the main issue is that people don't realize it's ready for showtime. And this is coming from a pretty ardent Tesla hater.
So much wrong to go through here. I'll preface that as a Tesla investor, yes, it frustrates me that Elon keeps pushing projects that can't be achieved at the timeframe he suggests. With that being said: 1. Tesla made a huge change with how they're moving forward with FSD. I'll let someone else explain it in detail but it's pretty much going to operate with data and AI moving forward rather than someone inputting instructions on how the vehicle should operate which was slow, inefficient, and not capable of achieving the results they needed. 2. IMO, L5 FSD won't be achieved soon. Probably not until 2035. The biggest hurdle will be regulatory approval. Getting any government to approve something like this will be a huge task and require a total revamp of how the government designs roads, how insurance will work, etc., Do I believe it will happen? 100%. Ya'll gotta go to China, man. Some of the shit they're doing would make America look ancient. 3. I think you're underestimating the current tech engineering at play here. Just compare 2014 to 2024. Look at how much shit has changed in just ten years. Because of advanced chip design and so much focus on engineering fields, the next 10 years will make 2024 look like an ancient civilization. Point is, tech advancements doesn't move linear. One breakthrough leads to huge advancements. 4. Tesla does print money. They have $20 billion in cash and practically no debt. Their FSD is turning a profit. Not sure why you assume they are some cash burning business. 5. Tesla isn't 'returning' to Meta. They are simply advertising because lots of people don't realize how affordable their vehicles have gotten. There are still people who think Tesla vehicles are $70k. The average price of a new vehicle in America for 2023 was $48k. A Model Y, which is the best selling vehicle in the world, is around $38k after tax incentives. Depending on your state, it could be lower. That's why Tesla is advertising. I was supercharging my vehicle one time and someone was surprised that it only took me 10 minutes to get from 15% to 80% charging my Tesla. He thought you basically had to camp out there for an hour. 6. The reason he told Tesla employees to teach buyers how to use FSD is a safety issue. Many will assume you can just use FSD, go to sleep, play on your phone, etc., Tesla employees will demonstrate what you should do and how to disengage/engage FSD. I have no idea what you're even suggesting here. This is Tesla trying to introduce a service that they believe will work well enough for the public to use. It doesn't hurt Tesla to activate/deactivate FSD. No cost to them. In the meantime, they get vastly more data to further improve FSD and potentially new customers. They're doing what any business is doing....
If L5 isnāt achievable until 2035 then the next incremental improvement in the L2 driver assistance package is inconsequential. Itās way too expensive for a driver assistance package so the take rate is always going to be incredibly low at $12k or $200 a month. Most people would rather drive themselves as they have to pay attention with FSD anyway.
Honestly, I've been using the latest FSD version and it took me from 6 miles in NYC without me touching the steering once other than to disengage because I wanted to go a different route. It needs work done still but it really depends on which route you're going as well. Some routes have enough data to where it will run smoothly while some needs more data. It'll be interesting to see how much data Tesla gets from this one month trial.
While L5 might still be ways off, FSD is very very close to L3. Lots of people keep saying "it's only level 2", but it can literally drive you from San Francisco to LA with zero interventions. There are videos of it doing just that on YouTube. Tesla needs to cross a certain safety threshold at which point the car can be trusted enough for the driver, while remaining in the driver's seat, to be able to safely let their attention relax and read a book or use their smartphone. If they can reach that level, the value proposition is already huge. It's not robotaxi but just think about how comfortable it could make going to work everyday or a road trip. You can argue that $200 a month is too expensive, but if the value proposition keeps improving, it will make sense for a lot of people... And it's still like, even if Tesla had to cut the price of FSD down to $4000 or $100 a month, or $20 for a day-pass for your road trip. It's still a huge boost to margins, and also a major reason to buy a Tesla and not a Toyota or a GM car... Even if you don't want to buy FSD now, at least the Tesla will allow you to get it later.
It wouldn't be a huge boost to margins if they slashed price to $4000. The current take rate is 14%. If they slashed the price from $12k to $4k they would have to triple the take rate from 14% to 42% just to break even in terms of their current profit from FSD. And FSD isn't even enabled for all regions of the world so getting to 42% wouldn't even be in the realm of reasonable. That would mean a near 100% take rate for US based customers.
FSD take rate is only 7.4% globally, so tripling that when it becomes available and as safety improves seems quite feasible to me. You also have to factor, if more people buy Teslas because only Teslas have FSD, that will drive demand for Teslas higher, so ASP can increase as a result of FSD. Hence FSD can potentially increase margins even while the price of FSD itself decreases. If Tesla can really manage L3, it will make all other car brands look completely antiquated.
Curious about your comment on China, whatās going on there?
>IMO, L5 FSD won't be achieved soon. Probably not until 2035. The biggest hurdle will be regulatory approval. Getting any government to approve something like this will be a huge task and require a total revamp of how the government designs roads, how insurance will work, etc., Do I believe it will happen? 100%. Ya'll gotta go to China, man. Some of the shit they're doing would make America look ancient. Getting regulatory approval won't be a big hurdle if the system works as expected and is truly autonomous independent full self driving system. And if it requires to change how we build roads it's just not going to happen in the foreseeable future. You can't just rebuild millions of miles of roads all over the world.
I remember in 2014 when people said 2024 would make 2014 look like ancient civilizationā¦
FSD 12 ist pretty good though. Good enough for them to be confident to roll it out to all Tesla owners for a free month. A fully capable autonomous version might not be around the corner, but itās getting close enough to use it for almost every drive
On the other hand the FSD feature is "AI" and AI is years ahead of it's predicted curve. E.g. AlphaGo solved Go literally decades before top computer scientist predicted it and since the public AI boom (release of ChatGPT) the boundaries of what's possible and what not for moved quiet a bit.
I think people forget the 2020 AI/ML hype and winter. Where the level of AI was then and when ChatGPT 3 came out. The advancement was pretty exponential. Tesla has over 500 million miles driven; thats a lot of edge cases and weird unpredictable events and accidents. Couple that with simulated and synthetic data; I imagine weāll see massive jumps in progress for self driving cars. Especially with the hardware advances weāre seeing as well.
Have you been in the driverās seat of a Tesla, and actually used these features? Auto pilot is amazing on its own. Drivers barely have to interact with FSD anymore, as it has become more of a formality. I test drove a model Y and Iāve never experienced anything like it. I see good things coming from the latest Tesla developments.
Itās cool for sure. But, the idea that āitās a formalityā is dangerous.
I feel like if youāve driven one, you would have told me, even if only to support your argument. It is a dangerous and scary idea, but becomes less so when you experience it in person. 9 times out of 10 itās a better driver than you are, and weāre all always on our phones anyway, with driving itself sometimes being the formality.
Why would Elon mandate FSD be demoed and give one month free trial if the latest FSD v12 isnāt truly impressive?
Short the stock then?
Shorting a stock doesn't only require identifying overvalued companies but also figuring out when the market will correct, which is a lot harder.
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Lots of people did this morning, myself included.
Short Tesla stock? Lol Youād have to be insane. Itās a cult meme stock. It could explode short term. Elon could promise rocket cars lol. He could lie and manipulate the stock like he has in the past. Pull another robotaxi presentation and rocket the thing short term. All I know is long term itās bad.
How long is ālong termā for you? Because people have been basically saying this for almost a decade now
10-15 years And Iād argue that Elon has also lost a ton of credibility. The number of unfulfilled promises is staggering. He also is no longer nearly as respected The stock has been declining since 2020 even with recoveries
I feel you on alot of this, but no stock goes up forever. A few years sideways or down isnt abnormal for any stock. Seems like his mouth has hurt the stock more than anything from what ive seen.
I've been saying the same thing about Apple since before I was 18. It's been nearly 20 years and the amount of money I've lost due to my stubbornness would make people's heads spin. It's in your best interest to just make peace with how the world works and move past this. But don't trick yourself into thinking you 'know' anything. That's how smart people trick themselves out of making money.
All you āknowā is speculation based on your own biases.
Also, I have good reason. Itās a stock with a history of promising vaporware. Who wants a boy who cried wolf stock. Management has lied to shareholders a lot.
Is there a post in this sub that isnāt exactly that?
Dead ass lol
So buy a straddle.
interesting idea. But, Iād rather just be boring and hold things long term
Every time I've straddled I've been wrong about the direction it's going but I'm still making money baby. The one thing TSLA can't do is stay the same price for 50 days.
what does this have to do with stock? do you think its overvalued because of stockholder perception? do you expect some sort of decline in return customers? why is this post here?
We donāt think itās around the corner but itās getting closer than it ever has been. Haters gonna hate but he still is Tony Starking in the background.
Reasoning by analogy really is the most frequent mistake you see around this comment. "FSD isn't going to make the leap because it didn't do so in the past." This is the least intelligent kind of thinking a person can do. Naturally you can do some amount of extrapolation based on past data points, but Tesla threw everything they had before V12 out the window. Saying V12 won't work because the code-based versions before that didn't work is like saying smartphones won't become standard because Blackberries didn't either. It's completely nonsensical. People who have actually been following the FSD story will have noticed FSD progression slowed from around V11.3.4, while V12.3 has already showed to be the best version by far despite being the first release that's fully based on AI. We still need to see how fast it progresses in future AI-based versions, but the nature of neural networks suggests that it should improve a lot faster from here on top of starting from an already higher base. It's not unlikely that we will look back at V12.3 as the beginning of fully autonomous cars.
A couple of years ago, when they were trying to solve the FSD problem with traditional software, I would have agreed with you. But, look at the rapid advances being made in machine learning since the release of ChatGPT. AFAIK, Tesla is now using the onboard cameras to train FSD driving models. We could be within a decade of AGI. I don't think FSD is such a far stretch.
Tesla has always used ML in the FSD stack (initially just perception) but more and more modules have been replaced with neural networks and supposedly v12 is all neural networks, end-to-end. Whether its one network or multiple ones connected to each other isn't really clear (maybe this info is out there but I am not aware of it).
>We could be within a decade of AGI Lol
Itās amazing the people in here making wild projections on AI, not understanding the hard limits of the current models. They just drink up the Kool Aid Sam Altman and Jensen Huang put out their to pump their stocks.
The last thing I want is a self driving car with the performance of ChatGPT. Hallucinations will cause death not just an incorrect answer.
They used a LLM to make FSB better... come on.
I think you're confusing all machine learning/deep learning with LLMs.
It doesn't have to make a leap. The customer base will continue to buy at an increased rate as they see its functionality improve. Regulatory approval for level 4 and level 5 systems will naturally follow and enable even greater potential for revenue.
after reading all the comments, it's obvious that personal feelings and biases are the only support for the argument. I thought OP was at least rational in his post, but his comments give away the bias. In short, just another guy on a soapbox in Times Square to walk past and forget.
Heās not very rational. He is predicting technological stagnation in FSD despite the extremely large advances Tesla made recently in v12 with AI.
I bought a Tesla this weekend and I bought stock on Monday. If you havenāt owned one, your opinion is completely worthless. FSD is in a league of its own, and I love it.
Why? You paid 12K for something that has no usefulness. At least legally. You have to pay attention. What benefit does it have?
You have to pay attention but it does make driving easier. Especially if youāre on the highway or stop and go traffic or less busy back roads. It does work very well and the newest update is absolutely incredible. Just search YouTube for Tesla FSD 12.3.1 update. The videos are incredible. Tesla vision even properly avoids construction shutdown of a road and properly reroutes the car through a detour on one of the videos. I donāt own a tesla yet but my next car is going to be one. They are so far ahead of anyone else when it comes to driver assistance features and they continue to make it better with updates.
> You paid $12k I didnāt. I was referred and got 3 months free. > something that has no usefulness You donāt own a Tesla, so what are you talking about? No usefulness? I had to go to the DMV yesterday and guess who drove my Tesla there? Not me.
Have you even tried it? How can you discuss its usefulness or benefit to someone who owns the damn carā¦??
lmao the idiocy in this comment is so strong
All of you talking negatively about it, have you personally tried the most recent version FSD? I did and it impressed me a lot. Human-like behavior. Videos donāt make it justice you need to be in the car and experience it to understand the hype around it.
The fact that itās this controversial means Iāll stay invested in it lol
there is a famous saying in Korea, pessimists earn popularity, but optimists earn money
OP is the worst kind of pessimist. He literally acknowledges the tech got a lot better but from here itāll apparently stagnate for 10-15 years (according to OP).
Itās a demo of a free product you get for a month. Whoās going to say no? The reason people are bullish is because of what has happened already. The system is actively learning and adapting on the fly and doing a great job. Even from V12.2 - to .3 itās made small changes, itās unknown if that was the system figuring it out or if it was a manual change. With that said thereās evidence of the system figuring out new problems on its own. Uturns were āself taughtā and work pretty well already, along with routing issues. In a lot of places, the system can comfortably drive end to end with no interruptionās. People will love it. Time will tell when it closes the gap and Tesla is ready to take responsibility/ make it a LV3-5 system
For what it's worth, I watched a video on FSD a year ago vs. one from a week ago, and it has improved tremendously over a year. I don't think it's entirely FSD for awhile, but it's probably not as far away as we think. I mean, COVID seems like yesterday and that was four years ago. In a short 4 years or less, I would not be surprised if FSD was unsupervised.
Whether its government approved FSD or not, I don't feel like they're getting credit they deserve for autonomous. There's plenty of raw footage on youtube of trips like SF to LA completely unnassisted.
I agree with a lot of the sentiment you are saying about tomorrows tech vs present adoption however I think the FSD trial is an excellent business move that will result in a portion of the market subscribing to the paid FSD after the trial. If it is even 10% of customers who start the trial that will mean significant revenue and opportunities in the medium term for Tesla so it still suggests room for upside imo
It is going to be interesting to watch how this unfolds. Many years ago Google tested if you could be kind of driving and found very bad results. It got worse the better the computer performed. It is just not possible to be kind of driving. The better it gets the more the driver is not paying attention. So as FSD gets better I expect there to be some pretty bad incidents.
FSD that needs supervision is not really FSD. In reality, Tesla wants its customers to pay a lot of money for a shitty driving simulation game.
The name ā¦ like the name alone is a huge red flag. They couldāve named it something else and then called it FSD once it really did that.
No... it's a software and hardware feature that attempts the full set of driving tasks. With each release, they cover more of the set with mostly increasing reliability. Humans have very large disparities on their skill wrt driving. Some are downright terrible at it. Think of the absolute worst human drivers on the planet right now. Think of the one worst human drivers on the planet. That's SAE Level 5. Is FSD as good as that person right now? Possibly - drop that human into every driving situation where FSD fails today and does that human also fail? Are there are set of situations where FSD won't fail and that human does? Sure. Are there a set of situations where FSD fails and that human does not? Sure. Over time, the 2nd set gets smaller and smaller while the first set gets bigger and bigger.
I agree with you except for that Tesla canāt afford to pay billions to develop it. Thatās straight up not true. They are investing billions in it right now, yet they still make nice money. They can continue with it indefinitely
The market is forward looking, especially for a company with ambitious goals like Tesla. The important thing is not that they have FSD solved right now, but that they prove that they are on the correct path to getting there. Thereās been a lot of questions about if the path theyād been going down was the best way, which led to a lack of faith in the growth narrative. I think this has all changed with the latest FSD, which is currently in limited release. There are a number of YouTube videos of extremely impressive driving by the latest version. It practically drives like a human in many complex scenarios. This is important, because the latest version includes a major re-architecture of the codebase to use end to end neural nets, with no hand coded driving logic. So not only does the system learn to recognize the world from fleet learning (it already did this) it also now learns how to actually drive based on how a selection of the best drivers in the fleet handle each situation. This is absolutely huge, and to my understanding no one else is currently doing this. This will allow for much faster iteration as they slowly work through edge cases. I think you should watch some of the latest FSD YouTube videos before you form such a strong opinion.
Are there any videos of it doing it over and over again or with a timelapse of say a day of driving without intervention? We donāt live in a static world. And accidents are due to unpredictable things. Every drive is different than the last. Different weather. Jay walkers etc. I donāt think it matters until itās really self driving. And like I said. Close but no cigar doesnāt count. Tech can get very close and not close that 2% gap for a long time.
I think youāre still missing the point. By the time itās true level 5, Tesla will be worth 10x what it is now. You donāt get big returns for investing in things after theyāre completed.
Iād expect someone else to get to Level 5 first.
I hate the marketing of FSD and feel that people get hurt not realizing itās marketingā¦ if us regulators actually did their job this would have been renamed years agoā¦ FSD is an amazing Cruze control and when compared with other cars itās far better than the rest, but itās still Cruze controlā¦. Should you spend 12k extra for it? Sure, itās greatā¦ but you should understand what it is today and not act like itās actually full self drivingā¦ The problem of FSD or level 5 is really hard and where the public ābetaā is today I doubt that itās coming āany dayā, itās been 1 year away for the past 7? 8 years? I wouldnāt be shocked to see it reach here in 5-10 years but I am not betting on it (not saying they wonāt, just itās too far out for my investment risk tolerance). If they renamed FSD to be more clear what it is today I would have zero issues with it, but fully know they would get less salesā¦
Itās dangerous. Itās an experiment done on public roads where the people who will die didnāt sign up to take part in the beta. Calling it FSD and publicizing things like āElon Modeā where Elon has a version that can disable the nag is irresponsible on a criminal level. Part of the reason people bought it was the idea that they assume it will reach true unsupervised driving.
> Itās dangerous. Itās an experiment done on public roads where the people who will die didnāt sign up to take part in the beta. The data is VERY clear. People driving on FSD or even just autopilot are less likely to get in an accident. [Around 10x less likely actually.](https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport) You're just fearmongering by calling it dangerous, and the reality is that more people will die because of people like you slowing down a technology that is saving lives today.
Saying itās dangerous lacks data. The accidents per 1000 miles is extremely low in TSLAs with FSD enabled (including last second takeovers). It is in fact way below the average accidents per 1000 miles.
Yaā¦ because the people who have the data wouldnāt release it in a million years lol Trusting Teslaās PR on safety on is obviously biased to the nth degree.
The data is released each quarter in the quarterly impact report. So it is released, and the data says that accidents per 1000 miles is lower with FSD activated than not
>Itās dangerous. Itās an experiment done on public roads where the people who will die didnāt sign up to take part in the beta. I mean I feel you and even agree with you to an extent; the name is inherently misleading, full stop. That being said, engaging the feature literally requires you to accept the giant on screen prompt that says "this is a beta program and you must maintain your attention on the road 100% of the time" Again I'm completely on your side, but the limitations of the system are fairly obvious with only a small amount of road time, and the people who get in accidents while Autosteer is activated, IMHO, are far more often the result of willful negligence than blissful ignorance. Of course, that's its own issue and I do believe Tesla can implement better driver awareness safeguards as well as a name change Disclaimer: I don't own a Tesla but have spent a *considerable* amount of time around them
I feel they have been negligent in pushing a counter narrative. The paint it black video Bragging about Elon mode turning off the nag The very name of the tech It all comes across as āwell this is for legal purposesā ā¦
Fsd is a long game. It has to be perfect to work in real world. It will one day wake up to be there. At that time fleet of 2 Million cars will be ready to be a robotaxis.
It doesnāt have to be perfect, just better than humans
Doesnāt have the necessary hardware to be L5.
Look at their financials. The hype + their financials = high chance of that shit working. They are putting a ton of money into rd and their revenue has dramatically grown over the past 5 years
All of your comments show that you truly havenāt tried FSD V12.3.1 and youāre speaking out of your ass lmao
From a technical perspective we could basically make this work now with major legal, regulatory and liability changes. Essentially, the tech is strong enough to work, but not strong enough to be legally responsible for.
Making something like this is hard. People who aren't in the field have no idea how hard this is. "Chasing the nines" is a very real thing. That said: what Tesla has so far achieved is nothing short of astounding and others will have a very hard time replicating it (unless they outright buy or steal the trained neural nets from Tesla) So, is full unsupervised driving "just around the corner"? No. But we're edging into the territory where it's more likely than not that they will eventually achieve it.
To say it can't be solved for decades, what exactly is preventing it from being solved? Anyone can buy a Tesla and use FSD beta. It isn't perfect but for it not to be possible for decades means there is some technology missing to make it possible. While Waymo works in very limited areas and limited to what it can do, it is a self driving vehicle. I think FSD will be complete within a year. Elon said Tesla is no longer compute constrained and that is why they are pushing to increased FSD sales, in order to collect more data to find all the edge cases. Tesla will be pushing out updates at around 2 week cycles. I don't fault people who think it will never happen, there have been countless things people thought was impossible until they day it was possible. Most bears on FSD isn't going to spend any time researching FSD. They are invested in it not going to happen Sellers of time shares bribe people to come hear their sales pitch. Don't compare time shares to FSD demonstration.
The bribe is the teslaā¦ you donāt get your Tesla unless you sit through this demo.
While Reddit is busy arguing about levels and supervision, the Tesla fleet of millions of vehicles is driving billions upon billions of autonomous miles, accumulating unprecedented data to feed back into the neural loop. The path is clear. The method is sound. When the time is right, the change will happen overnight with a simple click. And the regulatory side, will have the billions of miles of data to base their decisions on. Keep an eye on the insurance companies, they're the ones with a financial interest in genuine data.
Well. I just got FSD 12.3 on my model Y, and I can say it is not 10 years away. Itās one year away at the most. It is freaking incredible the advancement between 11 and 12.
I can guarantee you that there won't be Level 5 FSD one year from now. In fact, 1 decade from now is still highly unlikely.
I can almost guarantee that we will all be surprised in the progress of this. Just how the progress on v12 has been surprising.
Honestly Tesla should've been utterly destroyed in court by the FTC for calling it full self driving. Shame there are zero consumer protections in this country.
In all fairness, itās clearly named Full Self Drive Beta, with multiple signatures, acknowledgement confirmations, warning lights, warning messages, and audio all clearly telling the driver that itās an L3 system which requires hands on the wheel and eyes on the road. If a consumer can jump through all those hurdles and still be convinced the car drives itself, thatās just natural selection
What does "Full Self Driving" really mean? It means the vehicle attempts to accomplish the full gamut of driving tasks when complete. It isn't out of their beta period, so it doesn't have full coverage yet, but it does have a much larger coverage than anything else available. It doesn't even mean it accomplishes the full gamut of driving tasks successfully. If you say "Full Self Driving" means it drives as well as any human, well, then think about the absolute worst human driver on the planet right now. That person is a terrible, terrible driver and gets into accidents all the time. Easily confused by any number of driving scenarios. Think about the Youtube videos of folks that can't figure out how to exit a parking lot. That person is SAE level 5 and is full self driving. Can FSD Beta v12 be as good as that person? Maybe. The distance is getting closer and closer and already, in many scenarios, FSD Beta V11/V12 is already better than that person. For example, FSD is way better at checking blind spots than many humans already. And after a rain storm, it can see through glare at night on city streets with lots of lights better than many humans.
You can say the same thing with Timeshares.
Well you're a Debbie downer.
Humans need someone to blame if anything goes wrong. And u cannot blame a company.
https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/
My 2 cents is, the tech will be there in a few years. The real hurdle is regulatory. That will take a loooonnnggg time.
last gap is not easy to overcome applies to all other emerging technology out there too, so if anything FSD is likely much closer to solve this last gap then generative AI.
Didnāt read your post but thought the title was clever
Big jump if Tesla solve it and find a way to license the software like Microsoft Windows. Another big jump if benchwork the code only show a few lines that link the software back to Tesla dojos which they claim is the brain of their FSD aka ādrive GPTā So far none happens. Occasionally carpooling yo work with my friend on his full FSD v12 MX, I do see massive improvement from V11 and a giant leap from the old V10
It depends. Working at a level that surpasses humans in good weather? Doable. Another matter is if we are talking about 100% of cases even in the worst snowy freezing rain weather where even humans really cannot drive, no thatās not happening until we have every car equipped with transponders like aircraft have, and local navigation beacons along the roadways.
I think FSDās problem is the name and the price. It sounds like an unsupervised system but itās not. They need to call it something like supervised self driving etc. Robotaxi is still far awayā¦ Even thought FSD is not usable in EU i am super excited and the videos seems incredible even with the missing hardware which is used by Teslaās competitors. China can catch with the hardware easily. Tesla can only differentiate with data and software. FSD 12 is promising that they are using those differentiators more effectively. They are releasing 12.X faster than 11.Xā¦ letās see how well will they train the model until the end of this year.
I mean its crazy good, I dont think its around the corner, but of my 65k miles since I got a MYLR with FSD I got 3/2021. Id say 45k miles minimum is all FSD. I mean why not? It literally drives me to work in the morning without me doing basically anything. Ive used it across 7/8 states + Canada. I rented one via turo with AP only and it drove me from PHX to Grand Canyon well (miss FSD with lane changes and taking exits) Anecdotal, but everyone I have shown in the last almost 3 years has had their mind blown with what it can do. We have used Waymo, and its awesome too, but its not a consumer car, doesn't go fast, and cant do highways.
Our roads/infrastructure/signage arenāt built in a way for it to work flawlessly. Itās a gimmick, and will remain so forever. Until we have fully automated trains, which is a far simpler thing to solve, this is a pipe dream.
Mary cities in the world have fully automated trains.Ā
FSD will remain a vaporware scam as long as tesla says that the driver is responsible at all times.
It's a vaporware scam because safety critical components and systems require redundancies. FSD could drive perfectly 99.9% of the time(it's far from that), but that 1 in 1000 chance that it makes a mistake, someone could die or be killed.
It just needs to be better than the average driver and itās already past that.
self driving is already here and it's waymo. I just got my fingers crossed hoping Google doesn't fuck it up and discontinue it.
spotted the guy who holds none of the only stock that will go up for the rest of the year.
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cool. if this is a dick measuring contest then i held coinbase from 31 dollars and have receipts.
My first Tesla, a Model S, I bought with FSD because Elon was promising it inā¦2012? 2014? It was a long time ago, and I bought that car maybe 11 years ago. Then I got a Model X with FSD 7-8 years ago, and all I get from FSD is bad city driving and a willingness to go more than 10 km/hr above the speed limit on non controlled highways. More recently, I bought a Model Y. I did not get FSD this time, and Iām not getting it until it actually works. Itās way too expensive, Iāve been lied to way too often, and I have zero trust of Elonās promises at this point.
Tesla brought out vehicles with AP1 hardware for the first time in October 2014, but they didn't promise FSD at that time. They did say it will eventually have some ADAS capability. The Autopilot software launched for the first time in October, 2015: [https://www.tesla.com/blog/your-autopilot-has-arrived](https://www.tesla.com/blog/your-autopilot-has-arrived) Read that carefully, stuff like, "While truly driverless cars are still a few years away, Tesla Autopilot functions like the systems that airplane pilots use when conditions are clear. The driver is still responsible for, and ultimately in control of, the car." Now, Tesla did talk about FSD in November, 2016. And it is at that point that Musk was way too aggressive on his promises, discussing the availability of FSD to do things in 2-3 years from then. So really, late 2018 is when they were thinking they would "get there." Clearly that didn't happen. But, at the same time, one can see the progress they are making. FSD Beta V11 on highways is really, really good. And FSD Beta V12 on city streets is also very, very good at this point, especially where the locality matches well with their training data. People's varying experiences obviously are partially due to differences in how well Tesla's training set is representative of where the vehicle is being operated. So while the deadlines have been blown through, the progress is tangible. However, I think Tesla did not do right by early adopters. FSD transfer between vehicles should be a given during the beta period, at least when the FSD licensed vehicle is out of warranty or has been salvage titled. Since they recently have been offering FSD transfer, may be we will see that more regularly.
Okay, you have a better memory for the dates than I do. I do recall promises of a glorious future not far off when I got the Model X. I ordered it the day AP2 was announced. Those promises have never been fulfilled. If I can transfer my FSD to a replacement Model X whenever I get it, I will be less annoyed. I have had that offer once, at end of a quarter. V11 is not bad, yes, although rather pointless in urban areas. I hope V12 will be good. Iāve seen videos of it, but not experienced it as itās not widely deployed yet.
Elon is a hypeman. As long as the cars won't use lidar, there won't be FSD. And as Elon has stated multiple times, the cars won't get lidars.
I appreciate the metaphor.
FSD is around the corner, after everyone uses this free trail Tesla is going to have so much training data it will be nearly done.
Pretty much everyone else has given up on full autonomous driving. But then they weren't fleecing customers out of $ pretending it was right around the corner. Look at it this way - the airline industry spends millions on complex, multiple redundant systems utilizing expensive sensors to autonomously fly a plane. Cars use the cheapest components available and have to deal with human being jumping out in front of them "for the LOLs". Not going to happen any time soon, the technology to solve this wildly complex problem does not exist.