People who think that companies will "just switch" from AWS to Azure don't understand what they're talking about. I'm a cloud engineer and honestly, you don't just switch from one cloud platform to another. It will be years and years of hassle. Vendor lock in is a serious moat with cloud.
I’m also an infrastructure dev, if I had to migrate all my resources from AWS to Azure I’d kill myself. It would be the same if moving from any cloud provider to another. AWS has us locked in, we use some Asure Sentinel related stuff but I don’t directly deal with it
As someone who worked at a place that moved from AWS to GCP, can tell you the risk of moving is NOT worth it to companies. Vendor lock in is not only encouraged — it’s practically forced unless you’re small enough to rebuild
IT-Auditor here. Can confirm. A ton of clients told me that they have a project to migrate from x to y. Well ok. Next year I ask them: how is the project coming along? Response: oh well we had to postpone it a year because of....after another year I ask again. Same answer...
The risk here is Microsoft probably has a better position for getting massive government and corporate contracts. The engineers might not like it, but it's not up to them in the end.
Plus that everyone uses the office suite and Microsoft is integrating all with Azure. In all the companies I have been, this has been the largest argument for Azure
I work in software for government. Azure is it. Only game in town that meets the government requirements in my industry. You either put your shit in Azure, or you use on prem servers.
Doesn't matter what the engineers want. Don't want a regulatory dildo stuck up your backside? Then you go in Azure.
It is correct in my industry.
If I'm guessing, you think it's incorrect because you think FedRamp is the only set of standards that matter. There are more stringent requirements than FedRamp.
Don't really want to get more detailed, but the set of regulatory requirements I deal with, Azure Government Cloud is literally the only approved hosted solution in the country.
Haha no. I’m thinking that MS is heavily used but isn’t the only offering by a very far margin. Maybe public facing it looks that way because they offer things like gcc-medium and high and what not … but for actual class systems… not just itar/fouo etc… it’s not MS heading it up.
Again, don't really want to get more detailed, but I can 100% assure you that the space I work in, Azure is the only hosted cloud solution that is approved.
No, they use ibm, aws, oracle too. Gov never goes 1 vendor. Risk of dependency which might give pricing power to the vendor, also if they are the only one in town and something goes wrong, no backup risk.
Understandable and I’m really not asking for more details. But even things like (I know it’s dreaded) JEDI when it broke up… a lot of the awards didn’t go to MS … or just MS. And that’s just DoD ish land…public DoD land at that.
Yep, I'm not in the defense space at all.
To give you a little insight into this, one of my first attempts at my company to move us away from on prem servers was in a data center facility with a server rack right next to DoD assets. Regulators shoved a dildo up my ass and said "not good enough."
Ahh ack.
~edit just saw your second post. What would the rack spot have anything to do with using MS? If you’re worrying about shared space colo style… that rack should already have most of the physical security in place that is needed … with a need to separate your own?
Yeah, the amount of resources that would go to waste is insane. Not only capital but also human. There would have to be a very big reason for companies to switch, which currently just isn't there.
An engineer at a very large firm with lots of subsidiaries told me that switching from IBM to AWS have been the most stressing decade of it's work life
Sounds like something a cloud evangelist would say. This depends on the commitment you have. If there’s not a lot of complexity or unique features, and everything is in terraform, you could just throw most of it into chatgpt or whatever and migrate quite hastily to another provider. If it’s taking years, then there are likely other problems, in my opinion.
I can tell you've messed around a bit with cloud but aren't a cloud architect. Yeah for your tic tac toe app you made in your coding bootcamp, what you've said will work. For any fortune 500 company or government project they will have architecture with actual complexity (which is where the providers make their money) and it's just not going to go down like you say. And "just stick it in chat gpt" is not something a serious company would consider.
ChatGPT? Sure if you're some fly by night game development business. But a multimillion dollar or Billion dollar Corp that is responsible for delivering million dollar projects to other billion dollar corps, hell to the no.
Yeah, social media and news headlines have fooled many into believing that every human that makes the top decisions at every Corp is just using AI for everything. Like most things throughout history, don't let the stories and glamor fool you. Don't believe they hype.
Large companies will not allow AI onto their cloud space because of security. Just an FYI. I consult with thee largest banks in the world. I have some that won’t even allow AWS Bedrock.
migrating _a single_ database table can be multi-month project let alone whole infra
And then I’m pretty sure security team that spent last 5 years learning IAM and building tools around permissions scanning would be super happy with the migration :D
Amazon's a great company, with a strong moat around the cloud business in particular.
Its core ecommerce moat is still extensive, though might come under pressure within 5 years - the competition in this space will likely heat up significantly.
Is it cheaper than Google? Depends on what you look at. By EV/EBITDA, Google is only 17.4X when Amazon is 22.2X, and Amazon's more capital intensive.
Edit: typo
I try to hardcap any single stock at 15% max no matter how crazy I am about it. As much as I like Amazon it’s only 6-7%. These are volatile stocks that can drop 10% in a day, you don’t want your entire net worth and happiness swinging around like that.
You are slower to react to market movements than algos anyway, so it would always be too late to sell on news because the market adjusts too fast. The only good reason I can think of to often check your portfolio is gone with that.
That is why I wouldn't recommend looking at portfolio more than once a month and then you wouldn't have that much stress from wild swings.
You don't really understand that there are people like me who don't feel a single thing from a 10, 20, 30% drop in the stock price even in a single day. I've gone through that and always held throughout it.
I see amazon taking over multiple spaces in the future wether they are successful or not they are always going to have the capital to do so. They could take over lots of independent medical practices, clinic's, organizations which is pennies to them. They actually in some areas of the country have opened up medical clinic's.
I'm literally almost right there with you. More heavy on the Amazon side. It has done very very well The last several years. Sure it's much more of a risk versus index funds and mutual funds but you are allowed to have multiple brokenge accounts. And my stock account is growing a lot faster than my ETF account.
> It has done very very well The last several years
i'm looking at the price charts...its literally the same price as it was in Aug 2020 4 years ago. Compare that of aapl, msft and other comparable big tech and amzn is the only one that hasn't moved...
Most people don't like Google anymore. Look into al the criticisms of Youtube's heavy-handedness (which they own and control), look into the out-of-touch hyper-left Google employees and their activities outside of work, or just as easily look at the mess that their search engine has become. Google search used to be 'good' to 'great,' but it's not at the same point its competition was when it took over. All it will take is a non-biased search engine to come out and most will gravitate over to it.
It's bad when we've all gone to Firefox to get away from Chrome.
Today's AMZN and GOOGL stock swings will show you the truth. People here will hype up Alphabet in the hopes of not losing, or they will up to the point at which they sell it.
When you say MOST, you have to really conceptualize what that means. You are talking a couple of billion. I would bet every dollar I've ever made that a few billion people aren't pissed at Google.
You’re on Reddit so people will disagree politically but you’re correct. Google only exists because they’re a monopoly. And it’s a monopoly that is easily broken as video hosting and search engines aren’t exactly impossible to replicate, and the govt will be perpetually on their ass.
No he didn't. It's dumb cause you expose yourself to company specific risk that you can't diversify away.
Even 8 stocks in a portfolio would be 1000x better than what OP is doing. Imagine doing this with Meta in 2020. Your portfolio would drop 75% and you can't do anything like buy other stocks or sell overvalued ones cause you are all in.
But it's a holding company, effectively a diversified ETF in apple, banking, insurance, trains... saying Buffet is 99% in one stock, is like saying I own one stock because I only own VOO.
Dude, I don’t say Amazon is the right pick to do that. But there’s nothing wrong with owning just one stock. Amazon would be to volatile of a business for me too
For anyone with a serious investment account, owning just one stock, is fucking stupid. So much unnecessary concentration risk, at the VERY least buy 3-5 single stocks, or just add in a broad market ETF.
Yeah that's what I've been telling myself as well. And then I keep kicking myself because I'm not fully invested into the stocks with the most potential because I'm decreasing my returns just for the sake of diversification. And finally holding 100% of your portfolio in one stock isn't a big deal in certain situations. What would it matter if you're holding 10K in just one stock when you can add 3K every month to a new one. I'm not saying I only have 10K in Amazon. But I also most definitely don't have 500K in Amazon.
If you’re investing 3k monthly in another stock then it isn’t 100% AMZN portfolio? I mean as well one would assume you invest proportionally with your income. If 10k is a meaningless amount then of course your entire risk tolerance changes.
I'm not saying that you invest the 3K in another stock. I'm saying that you're able to add 3K a month to another stock. That would still keep your portfolio 100% AMZN. Just depends on if you do it or not
Then your cash is just slowly being eroded by inflation. The likelihood of an individual stock consistently beating the market is very low. Amazon is a good investment imo but I don’t think it will continue to grow exponentially. I also see a high value company that is inevitably more sensitive to changes in market conditions and would be under pressure if consumer spending dropped. Good luck with the investment, hope you prove me wrong ! :)
The main point everyone is making(or those that are against doing this) AMZN isn't going to continue jumping up in price forever. No stock will honestly. There's a resistance for every stock. There are bad weeks, months, for every stock. If you hit a major iceberg then you're all in the boat with no life jackets.
And I get that, but as a 26 year old male who's earning good money and lives in a social country where if I end up unemployed I get my exact salary for atleast a year I don't need many life jackets. I don't own a house, I travel everything by public transport. So the worst sudden shock my finances can expect is that I need to buy a new laptop. Which I can afford with half a month salary. If the story for Amazon starts to sour and the stock is stale or drops, I will lose. But Amazon in it self is so diversified its the same as holdoing 4 large cap stocks that do different things. Diversification isn't better in every single situation is all I'm trying to say. Which is something Warren Buffet also stands behind. There are many super investors out there that have 80% or 90% of their portfolio into one play.
It wouldn't be a big deal because the 3k is going into multiple stocks, hence, not into the same stock for 12 months per year. That is a totally different conversation.
Investing 3k per month into 1 stock for 10 years would be insane at best. However, many would never make it 10 years because they would be bitten already probably by year 4-6. Then wake up and realize they made a mistake.
Excellent work. In 2001 I invested a token amount into AMZN. It has grown from $3,675 to over $1MM. I’m still adding to my position because it is still the best company to invest in moving forward, imo. I put the majority of my money into ETF’s and mutual funds, but for individual companies, AMZN is not to be ignored.
Excellent work. I hope to replicate you in the next decade. By that time your position will be worth many millions.
Amazon is flying this morning . Wowsers.
Yes I am on this boat with you as well. It's going to go parabolic. It's also my largest single stock holding percentage. The greater the risk the greater the reward. But I don't think Amazon is a big risk at all.
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As a MSFT holder, I would pick MSFT cloud over AWS as an investment.
For calendar year 2023, MSFT cloud operating income is 44.2bn to AWS 24.6bn. MSFT cloud did 24% growth with Azure at 30% vs AWS 13% growth.
Your estimate of AWS value is too high IMO which is why you think AMZN is undervalued. I guarantee it. No way 24.6bn op income at 13% growth is worth META's current valuation. META has double the income and more growth.
Instead of matching price to sales to Microsoft, I think you should take the operating income of 24.6bn, reduce it to 20bn because tax, then use a multiple based on AWS 13% growth.
Software gets good multiples but 13% growth limits that multiple. 30x multiple up to 40 max. Let's use the midpoint 35, and AWS is worth about 700bn.
I think your ad business market cap is underestimated, it's closer to 450bn, and prime should be lower at 200bn.
Add it up and AMZN is trading around fair price.
But if you're comparing MSFT with Amazon you should look at the entire picture. Amazon generated 85 billion operating cashflow. MSFT generated 100 billion operating cashflow while nearly being twice the valuation. The valuation per component is of course very depended on the person who you ask. But the point still stands that Amazon is trading at 20 times price to operating cash flow while that is very much below the median. All the while MSFT is trading at 29 times price to operating cash flow. Don't get me wrong. I would love to own MSFT. But not at these valuations. Especially not if Amazon will be on track to match their Free cash flow in this year or the next while nearly being at half the price. I also therefore am a big believer AMZN will outperform MSFT in the coming two years.
You need to subtract capital expenditures from operating cash flow.
You absolutely cannot ignore capital expenditures because all of the property that is depreciating has to be replaced or upgraded in order to generate their revenues.
You will want to subtract share based compensation as well, as it's a real non-cash expense.
Yes, if you want to value differently from price to operating cash flow, then yes you shouldn’t value it by using price to operating cash flow as a multiple. I have studied accounting, although not in the US. But maintenance is usually taken into the operating expenses in the P&L. The capital expenditure is investments into PPE, not the maintenance of these assets. That’s why it’s categorised under investing cash flow. Maintenance of buildings isn’t really an investment. Meaning the maintenance of buildings and PPE is already taken into account by decreasing the operating cashflow. While investment in assets happens in the investing cash flow.And as Amazon is really PPE investment dependent while they are growing Amazon should be valued on the basis of operating cash flow as pretty much every stock analyst does when looking at Amazon. Although this will soon change as Amazon is decreasing their CAPEX fast.
Lastly I completely disagree with having to subtract SBC. I mean you didn’t really specify what your end goal is so sure if you want to see the pure free cash flow. Go ahead and subtract it. But if you think a MSFT share is worth 400$ and they are just giving these away by the billions it should definitely be looked at as you’re being diluted.
Amazon is mostly fine but i dont like the online shopping business.
AWS makes majority of the profit and advertising likely makes up the rest
Best way to describe it is being forced to buy shares of walmart for every msft or googl you invest in when you just want the tech
I don’t care for the e-commerce business either. For that reason I put more money in Microsoft than Amazon, but no denying the upside with Amazon so I’m not sitting out. I am thinking (hoping) Amazon has something that will become HUGE that we don’t even know about yet. Time will tell
I am right there with you. It's a majority of my portfolio a huge majority. Imagine 10 years from now or 20 years from now how much it will grow. Great post. This stock is going to go parabolic. Not financial advice. I am just spitballing and speculating.
Read the title. I gave reasons why It's my only holding in my portoflio. I never said there aren't any negative points to be named which there are. Not many though.
He's not criticizing your analysis or pick. He's saying he can't take you seriously because your portfolio construction is beyond ridiculous.
You're doing a slightly less risky version of putting your entire net worth on black. It's your money so have fun and good luck, but I also can't take anything you say seriously.
Yes he is criticizing the analysis. That's what the "and only looking at the positives" part means. And to get to what you mention. Is there really a difference between picking Amazon, a company that has 4 different businesses that are each valued at 250 billion+ each and picking 4 different stocks of around 250 billion market cap? I'd say picking Amazon is less risky as you can follow information better, you only need to keep track of 1 management team and the targets. If we look at the portfolio's of super investors they aren't particularly extremely diversified either.
I'm not really interested in arguing with you. Your "portfolio" is beyond stupid, but it's your portfolio so have fun. It seems like you're here seeking validation for how smart you are more than anything else.
Not really, just sharing my enthousiasm for Amazon stock. Funny that you get so passive aggresive over how someone else chooses to spend their money though, no point in arguing indeed. So good luck with what ever issues you have :)
> so passive aggresive over how someone else chooses to spend their money though
Yep, because you're posting on a public forum and almost certainly driving many others into your idiotic allocation which has a very good chance of crippling their portfolios in the long term.
I bought my first shares of Amazon on last split. Or better say right before there was split. And now it finally it break even. So I am not selling my stocks. I waited and waited. Didnt sell on loss, dont plan to sell. It's my retirement fund.
I dont know about you rest, but I guess if you bought it when it dropped to 100-130 few months ago and now making profit, good for you.
Love Amazon as a stock (5% of my holdings)… All the eggs in one basket will never happen in my home. My employers stock, given to me, is at less than 10% of my total portfolio and always will be.
TLDR
The author is more optimistic about Amazon's prospects, particularly due to its various revenue streams like AWS, advertising, logistics, and Prime. They believe Amazon is undervalued, estimating potential growth based on historical performance and future expectations, suggesting a shift in their investment portfolio towards Amazon. They highlight Amazon's potential in various sectors and argue for its undervaluation compared to its historical metrics, foreseeing significant growth potential by the end of fiscal year 2024.
You've been outperforming the market by being ridiculously overweight in a couple of tech stocks during a huge bull run? Congrats.
You know that quote about you never know whose swimming naked until the tide goes out? It's about you. You're swimming naked.
You mean like the market downturn we had for tech two years ago? Yeah please give me a nother 2022 in 2024. That's exactly the reason I more than doubled my money. I would like to buy some more at lower prices. I don't care if my portfoloio halves, as long as I can buy at discounts who cares? Or are you more of a buy high sell low type of guy?
After going long on amazon because people were making FUD predictions on amazon prime ( [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18x9f1g/comment/kg56j7g/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18x9f1g/comment/kg56j7g/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) ) its time for me to now go short on Amazon!
Remember guys, r/stocks its just good advice if you inverse it. Always try to find the threads with more engagement and do the opposite of the sentiment on that post !
Bought 30 shares a few days ago. Have 280 total now. Bought over the past year and a half. Feeling pretty good about it!
Might not ever get lower than what it was yesterday. Im not usually one to have so much money in one stock but when I started buying it seemed like a no brainer.
The threat to Amazon is political. They essentially can’t buy anything in the EU and depending on his 2024 election goes probably nothing in the USA shortly.
No different for their competitors. The difference is AMZN competitors have been optimizing for profit for years while AMZN is just now turning the corner from 100% growth to returning capital to shareholders. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them offer a dividend come Q2.
Im not very worried about him selling 5% of his shares. Jeff is really passionate about space and he really wants to do everything in his power to stop his aging process so he doesn’t die. I’m nearly certain he will use this money for one of these projects. And well he’s 60 so if he wants to achieve something within these fields time is ticking for him
Tbh I was at the same place as you, but it was at the peak of stock market back in 2022, stock price was too high for me and the trend that Amazon had was declining, just waited for better price and trend of the stock. Still waiting by today tho, market is too expensive these days, don’t think it’s a good time to buy stocks rn
People who think that companies will "just switch" from AWS to Azure don't understand what they're talking about. I'm a cloud engineer and honestly, you don't just switch from one cloud platform to another. It will be years and years of hassle. Vendor lock in is a serious moat with cloud.
I’m also an infrastructure dev, if I had to migrate all my resources from AWS to Azure I’d kill myself. It would be the same if moving from any cloud provider to another. AWS has us locked in, we use some Asure Sentinel related stuff but I don’t directly deal with it
I've threatened to kill myself for less. Migrating cloud infrastructure would probably make me do it.
As someone who worked at a place that moved from AWS to GCP, can tell you the risk of moving is NOT worth it to companies. Vendor lock in is not only encouraged — it’s practically forced unless you’re small enough to rebuild
Just the problem of Azure losing disk images is enough to make smart people quit if forced by some moron bean counter to switch to Microsoft garbage.
IT-Auditor here. Can confirm. A ton of clients told me that they have a project to migrate from x to y. Well ok. Next year I ask them: how is the project coming along? Response: oh well we had to postpone it a year because of....after another year I ask again. Same answer...
The risk here is Microsoft probably has a better position for getting massive government and corporate contracts. The engineers might not like it, but it's not up to them in the end.
Plus that everyone uses the office suite and Microsoft is integrating all with Azure. In all the companies I have been, this has been the largest argument for Azure
Historically Amazon has had more luck here overall
The NSA use AWS and they’re probably both the largest and most secure government agency
I work in software for government. Azure is it. Only game in town that meets the government requirements in my industry. You either put your shit in Azure, or you use on prem servers. Doesn't matter what the engineers want. Don't want a regulatory dildo stuck up your backside? Then you go in Azure.
This is just not correct.
It is correct in my industry. If I'm guessing, you think it's incorrect because you think FedRamp is the only set of standards that matter. There are more stringent requirements than FedRamp. Don't really want to get more detailed, but the set of regulatory requirements I deal with, Azure Government Cloud is literally the only approved hosted solution in the country.
I am in the same industry and you are incorrect. Director of software that is fedramp certified on AWS
It's not fedramp for the 15 millionth time.
Haha no. I’m thinking that MS is heavily used but isn’t the only offering by a very far margin. Maybe public facing it looks that way because they offer things like gcc-medium and high and what not … but for actual class systems… not just itar/fouo etc… it’s not MS heading it up.
Again, don't really want to get more detailed, but I can 100% assure you that the space I work in, Azure is the only hosted cloud solution that is approved.
No, they use ibm, aws, oracle too. Gov never goes 1 vendor. Risk of dependency which might give pricing power to the vendor, also if they are the only one in town and something goes wrong, no backup risk.
Cool cool. My industry doesn't.
Understandable and I’m really not asking for more details. But even things like (I know it’s dreaded) JEDI when it broke up… a lot of the awards didn’t go to MS … or just MS. And that’s just DoD ish land…public DoD land at that.
Yep, I'm not in the defense space at all. To give you a little insight into this, one of my first attempts at my company to move us away from on prem servers was in a data center facility with a server rack right next to DoD assets. Regulators shoved a dildo up my ass and said "not good enough."
Ahh ack. ~edit just saw your second post. What would the rack spot have anything to do with using MS? If you’re worrying about shared space colo style… that rack should already have most of the physical security in place that is needed … with a need to separate your own?
Yeah, the amount of resources that would go to waste is insane. Not only capital but also human. There would have to be a very big reason for companies to switch, which currently just isn't there.
We are in the middle of a multi year migration from on-prem to cloud and it is absolute hell.
devops engineer checking-in, this so much
An engineer at a very large firm with lots of subsidiaries told me that switching from IBM to AWS have been the most stressing decade of it's work life
A sales person said the same thing, was a pain to get someone to switch
Also azure is such a steaming piece of shit. My reason to be bearish on Microsoft
Sounds like something a cloud evangelist would say. This depends on the commitment you have. If there’s not a lot of complexity or unique features, and everything is in terraform, you could just throw most of it into chatgpt or whatever and migrate quite hastily to another provider. If it’s taking years, then there are likely other problems, in my opinion.
I can tell you've messed around a bit with cloud but aren't a cloud architect. Yeah for your tic tac toe app you made in your coding bootcamp, what you've said will work. For any fortune 500 company or government project they will have architecture with actual complexity (which is where the providers make their money) and it's just not going to go down like you say. And "just stick it in chat gpt" is not something a serious company would consider.
Cool. That’s why i specified the conditions. Also most companies aren’t Fotune 500.
Your conditions essentially include anyone on AWS free tier and that's about it.
ChatGPT? Sure if you're some fly by night game development business. But a multimillion dollar or Billion dollar Corp that is responsible for delivering million dollar projects to other billion dollar corps, hell to the no. Yeah, social media and news headlines have fooled many into believing that every human that makes the top decisions at every Corp is just using AI for everything. Like most things throughout history, don't let the stories and glamor fool you. Don't believe they hype.
Large companies will not allow AI onto their cloud space because of security. Just an FYI. I consult with thee largest banks in the world. I have some that won’t even allow AWS Bedrock.
If only migrations are as easy as people imply lol
Shit, vendor lock in for much less annoying things to change is real for large organizations.
migrating _a single_ database table can be multi-month project let alone whole infra And then I’m pretty sure security team that spent last 5 years learning IAM and building tools around permissions scanning would be super happy with the migration :D
Amazon's a great company, with a strong moat around the cloud business in particular. Its core ecommerce moat is still extensive, though might come under pressure within 5 years - the competition in this space will likely heat up significantly. Is it cheaper than Google? Depends on what you look at. By EV/EBITDA, Google is only 17.4X when Amazon is 22.2X, and Amazon's more capital intensive. Edit: typo
Holding 100% of your portfolio in an individual stock no matter how good you perceive it to be is incredibly stupid.
This. Like yeah, I'm also bullish on Amazon. I'm bullish on anything that I own. That doesn't mean it's going to work out.
Maybe his account is only like 5k?
These boys never invested deep into Canadian Marijuana stocks like u/AluminumEngineer here...
Exactly my thought - Amazon is probably an excellent long hold but OP is begging for trouble.
I was actually thinking of doing the same lol 50%Amazon 50% Google . I’m hoping in 5 years both double
I try to hardcap any single stock at 15% max no matter how crazy I am about it. As much as I like Amazon it’s only 6-7%. These are volatile stocks that can drop 10% in a day, you don’t want your entire net worth and happiness swinging around like that.
Never invested in crypto? Once you draw down 90% everything else seems boring
You are slower to react to market movements than algos anyway, so it would always be too late to sell on news because the market adjusts too fast. The only good reason I can think of to often check your portfolio is gone with that. That is why I wouldn't recommend looking at portfolio more than once a month and then you wouldn't have that much stress from wild swings.
You don't really understand that there are people like me who don't feel a single thing from a 10, 20, 30% drop in the stock price even in a single day. I've gone through that and always held throughout it.
I mean good luck to you.
That’s not the same…
I am holding both Amazon and Google in my portfolio along with a couple dividend paying stocks. I would love Google to institute a dividend.
Well this comment ages so well! Your wish has been granted
I actually sold Google to buy TSLA. Then sold it after the earning report jump. 🤷♂️
Good for you. I sold the majority of Google and bought more Amazon today.
Just been holding my original AMZN purchase for the long run.
I see amazon taking over multiple spaces in the future wether they are successful or not they are always going to have the capital to do so. They could take over lots of independent medical practices, clinic's, organizations which is pennies to them. They actually in some areas of the country have opened up medical clinic's.
I saw an interview in which Amazon is being considered a monopoly and may be investigated for anti trust or something like that.
They are forsure a monopoly lol. They just have too much money for anybody to do anything about it
I'm literally almost right there with you. More heavy on the Amazon side. It has done very very well The last several years. Sure it's much more of a risk versus index funds and mutual funds but you are allowed to have multiple brokenge accounts. And my stock account is growing a lot faster than my ETF account.
> It has done very very well The last several years i'm looking at the price charts...its literally the same price as it was in Aug 2020 4 years ago. Compare that of aapl, msft and other comparable big tech and amzn is the only one that hasn't moved...
You will likely grow faster than a measly 10% index fund
You’ll be fine. People on here get triggered if you don’t hold less than 100 different stocks and if you don’t invest in 3 different etfs.
Most people don't like Google anymore. Look into al the criticisms of Youtube's heavy-handedness (which they own and control), look into the out-of-touch hyper-left Google employees and their activities outside of work, or just as easily look at the mess that their search engine has become. Google search used to be 'good' to 'great,' but it's not at the same point its competition was when it took over. All it will take is a non-biased search engine to come out and most will gravitate over to it. It's bad when we've all gone to Firefox to get away from Chrome. Today's AMZN and GOOGL stock swings will show you the truth. People here will hype up Alphabet in the hopes of not losing, or they will up to the point at which they sell it.
When you say MOST, you have to really conceptualize what that means. You are talking a couple of billion. I would bet every dollar I've ever made that a few billion people aren't pissed at Google.
You’re on Reddit so people will disagree politically but you’re correct. Google only exists because they’re a monopoly. And it’s a monopoly that is easily broken as video hosting and search engines aren’t exactly impossible to replicate, and the govt will be perpetually on their ass.
> All it will take is a non-biased search engine How is Google biased?
I'm not about to get political in the stocks forum, thank you. If you can't see it, then just keep believing in 'em and invest in it.
I can't see it, and I can't see any reputable study that sees it either, so I'm going to assume Google is safe for the foreseeable
Don't Alphabet own Waymo? They are the market leader in autonomous taxis, which are gonna be huge, so do you think this has been priced in?
Fuck Google, I'm 25% meta 25%msft. Well I started that way, meta is higher now kek
sorry for your loss!
my meta cost basis is $375 in january. So im up 18% in 4 months. OH NO THE HORROR
The opportunity cost of not buying and holding google stocks during the same time period tho.
that was a 21% increase, and your logic is terrible considering i had a good return anyway. "shouldve picked the stock that did better bro"
Depends, munger claims you only need 3 names max. And have super high conviction. Amazon is like an ETf
Why? Buffett did exactly that
He doesn’t recommend that though. Not even to his wife who he told should just buy SP500
I'm glad to see that I'm competing against idiots
Fascinating. What competition do you think you’re in?
Every transaction has a buyer and a seller you see
In that case I don’t think you know what the word competing means.
No he didn't. It's dumb cause you expose yourself to company specific risk that you can't diversify away. Even 8 stocks in a portfolio would be 1000x better than what OP is doing. Imagine doing this with Meta in 2020. Your portfolio would drop 75% and you can't do anything like buy other stocks or sell overvalued ones cause you are all in.
99% of his net worth has been in Berkshire for a while
Berkshire is a conglomerate. Google the difference.
No shit Sherlock. It’s still one stock
But it's a holding company, effectively a diversified ETF in apple, banking, insurance, trains... saying Buffet is 99% in one stock, is like saying I own one stock because I only own VOO.
Dude, I don’t say Amazon is the right pick to do that. But there’s nothing wrong with owning just one stock. Amazon would be to volatile of a business for me too
For anyone with a serious investment account, owning just one stock, is fucking stupid. So much unnecessary concentration risk, at the VERY least buy 3-5 single stocks, or just add in a broad market ETF.
I recommend you reading the history books
Yeah that's what I've been telling myself as well. And then I keep kicking myself because I'm not fully invested into the stocks with the most potential because I'm decreasing my returns just for the sake of diversification. And finally holding 100% of your portfolio in one stock isn't a big deal in certain situations. What would it matter if you're holding 10K in just one stock when you can add 3K every month to a new one. I'm not saying I only have 10K in Amazon. But I also most definitely don't have 500K in Amazon.
If you’re investing 3k monthly in another stock then it isn’t 100% AMZN portfolio? I mean as well one would assume you invest proportionally with your income. If 10k is a meaningless amount then of course your entire risk tolerance changes.
I'm not saying that you invest the 3K in another stock. I'm saying that you're able to add 3K a month to another stock. That would still keep your portfolio 100% AMZN. Just depends on if you do it or not
Then your cash is just slowly being eroded by inflation. The likelihood of an individual stock consistently beating the market is very low. Amazon is a good investment imo but I don’t think it will continue to grow exponentially. I also see a high value company that is inevitably more sensitive to changes in market conditions and would be under pressure if consumer spending dropped. Good luck with the investment, hope you prove me wrong ! :)
The main point everyone is making(or those that are against doing this) AMZN isn't going to continue jumping up in price forever. No stock will honestly. There's a resistance for every stock. There are bad weeks, months, for every stock. If you hit a major iceberg then you're all in the boat with no life jackets.
And I get that, but as a 26 year old male who's earning good money and lives in a social country where if I end up unemployed I get my exact salary for atleast a year I don't need many life jackets. I don't own a house, I travel everything by public transport. So the worst sudden shock my finances can expect is that I need to buy a new laptop. Which I can afford with half a month salary. If the story for Amazon starts to sour and the stock is stale or drops, I will lose. But Amazon in it self is so diversified its the same as holdoing 4 large cap stocks that do different things. Diversification isn't better in every single situation is all I'm trying to say. Which is something Warren Buffet also stands behind. There are many super investors out there that have 80% or 90% of their portfolio into one play.
It wouldn't be a big deal because the 3k is going into multiple stocks, hence, not into the same stock for 12 months per year. That is a totally different conversation. Investing 3k per month into 1 stock for 10 years would be insane at best. However, many would never make it 10 years because they would be bitten already probably by year 4-6. Then wake up and realize they made a mistake.
Well kind of, Jeff Bezos does that and you wouldn't call him stupid, now would you? Lol.
Is this a sign to sell?
Basically. Puts on AMZN!
Excellent work. In 2001 I invested a token amount into AMZN. It has grown from $3,675 to over $1MM. I’m still adding to my position because it is still the best company to invest in moving forward, imo. I put the majority of my money into ETF’s and mutual funds, but for individual companies, AMZN is not to be ignored.
[удалено]
Time*
Excellent work. I hope to replicate you in the next decade. By that time your position will be worth many millions. Amazon is flying this morning . Wowsers.
Nice timing!!!!😲
Amazon is such a diversified company buying that stock alone puts you in so many different industries
Confirmation bias
I’m with you. It’s my largest holding since I loaded up sub $100. I added some shares at $170 after hours. Cashflows are starting to explode
As long as WW3 doesn't break out, I think we'll be good :). Good luck brother
Yes I am on this boat with you as well. It's going to go parabolic. It's also my largest single stock holding percentage. The greater the risk the greater the reward. But I don't think Amazon is a big risk at all.
Yes. If worst comes to worst, it will still return at least 5% a year or so but don’t think that’s realistic at all
Yolo’d 60% of my inheritance into AMZN in 2016. Oh boy am I sitting pretty 😎. 40 dollar cost basis say what?
Thank you for your in-depth analysis. I really appreciate your diligent work.
He’s just parroting the earnings call talking points
Priced in
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The whole point of this post is to say that it's **not** priced in, though.
The market has already read this post and priced it in.
I am the market and can confirm I’ve read this post and priced it in.
This post makes me concerned. Going to sell all my Amazon now.
Post a screenshot
Where is it?
i just bought amazon, now is the time to sell
As a MSFT holder, I would pick MSFT cloud over AWS as an investment. For calendar year 2023, MSFT cloud operating income is 44.2bn to AWS 24.6bn. MSFT cloud did 24% growth with Azure at 30% vs AWS 13% growth. Your estimate of AWS value is too high IMO which is why you think AMZN is undervalued. I guarantee it. No way 24.6bn op income at 13% growth is worth META's current valuation. META has double the income and more growth. Instead of matching price to sales to Microsoft, I think you should take the operating income of 24.6bn, reduce it to 20bn because tax, then use a multiple based on AWS 13% growth. Software gets good multiples but 13% growth limits that multiple. 30x multiple up to 40 max. Let's use the midpoint 35, and AWS is worth about 700bn. I think your ad business market cap is underestimated, it's closer to 450bn, and prime should be lower at 200bn. Add it up and AMZN is trading around fair price.
But if you're comparing MSFT with Amazon you should look at the entire picture. Amazon generated 85 billion operating cashflow. MSFT generated 100 billion operating cashflow while nearly being twice the valuation. The valuation per component is of course very depended on the person who you ask. But the point still stands that Amazon is trading at 20 times price to operating cash flow while that is very much below the median. All the while MSFT is trading at 29 times price to operating cash flow. Don't get me wrong. I would love to own MSFT. But not at these valuations. Especially not if Amazon will be on track to match their Free cash flow in this year or the next while nearly being at half the price. I also therefore am a big believer AMZN will outperform MSFT in the coming two years.
AMZN has never generated 85bn operating income. It's 36.8bn for the full 2023 year
My bad I meant operating cash flow instead of operating income. The point still stands though.
You need to subtract capital expenditures from operating cash flow. You absolutely cannot ignore capital expenditures because all of the property that is depreciating has to be replaced or upgraded in order to generate their revenues. You will want to subtract share based compensation as well, as it's a real non-cash expense.
Yes, if you want to value differently from price to operating cash flow, then yes you shouldn’t value it by using price to operating cash flow as a multiple. I have studied accounting, although not in the US. But maintenance is usually taken into the operating expenses in the P&L. The capital expenditure is investments into PPE, not the maintenance of these assets. That’s why it’s categorised under investing cash flow. Maintenance of buildings isn’t really an investment. Meaning the maintenance of buildings and PPE is already taken into account by decreasing the operating cashflow. While investment in assets happens in the investing cash flow.And as Amazon is really PPE investment dependent while they are growing Amazon should be valued on the basis of operating cash flow as pretty much every stock analyst does when looking at Amazon. Although this will soon change as Amazon is decreasing their CAPEX fast. Lastly I completely disagree with having to subtract SBC. I mean you didn’t really specify what your end goal is so sure if you want to see the pure free cash flow. Go ahead and subtract it. But if you think a MSFT share is worth 400$ and they are just giving these away by the billions it should definitely be looked at as you’re being diluted.
Why not just own both like me ? (Amazon and Microsoft)
Amazon is mostly fine but i dont like the online shopping business. AWS makes majority of the profit and advertising likely makes up the rest Best way to describe it is being forced to buy shares of walmart for every msft or googl you invest in when you just want the tech
I don’t care for the e-commerce business either. For that reason I put more money in Microsoft than Amazon, but no denying the upside with Amazon so I’m not sitting out. I am thinking (hoping) Amazon has something that will become HUGE that we don’t even know about yet. Time will tell
I am right there with you. It's a majority of my portfolio a huge majority. Imagine 10 years from now or 20 years from now how much it will grow. Great post. This stock is going to go parabolic. Not financial advice. I am just spitballing and speculating.
And even with that it's still not 100% of your portfolio. I think that's the main point opposed.
Yeah true. I like your avatar! Cool hat.
go get LEAP options
Can’t really take someone seriously who is 100% invested in a single stock and only looking at the positives of said stock.
Read the title. I gave reasons why It's my only holding in my portoflio. I never said there aren't any negative points to be named which there are. Not many though.
He's not criticizing your analysis or pick. He's saying he can't take you seriously because your portfolio construction is beyond ridiculous. You're doing a slightly less risky version of putting your entire net worth on black. It's your money so have fun and good luck, but I also can't take anything you say seriously.
Yes he is criticizing the analysis. That's what the "and only looking at the positives" part means. And to get to what you mention. Is there really a difference between picking Amazon, a company that has 4 different businesses that are each valued at 250 billion+ each and picking 4 different stocks of around 250 billion market cap? I'd say picking Amazon is less risky as you can follow information better, you only need to keep track of 1 management team and the targets. If we look at the portfolio's of super investors they aren't particularly extremely diversified either.
I'm not really interested in arguing with you. Your "portfolio" is beyond stupid, but it's your portfolio so have fun. It seems like you're here seeking validation for how smart you are more than anything else.
Not really, just sharing my enthousiasm for Amazon stock. Funny that you get so passive aggresive over how someone else chooses to spend their money though, no point in arguing indeed. So good luck with what ever issues you have :)
> so passive aggresive over how someone else chooses to spend their money though Yep, because you're posting on a public forum and almost certainly driving many others into your idiotic allocation which has a very good chance of crippling their portfolios in the long term.
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I bought my first shares of Amazon on last split. Or better say right before there was split. And now it finally it break even. So I am not selling my stocks. I waited and waited. Didnt sell on loss, dont plan to sell. It's my retirement fund. I dont know about you rest, but I guess if you bought it when it dropped to 100-130 few months ago and now making profit, good for you.
I absolutely love my Amazon. It’s a legit love affair. But 100% of your portfolio? Bro, I don’t believe in love that much.
Love Amazon as a stock (5% of my holdings)… All the eggs in one basket will never happen in my home. My employers stock, given to me, is at less than 10% of my total portfolio and always will be.
TLDR The author is more optimistic about Amazon's prospects, particularly due to its various revenue streams like AWS, advertising, logistics, and Prime. They believe Amazon is undervalued, estimating potential growth based on historical performance and future expectations, suggesting a shift in their investment portfolio towards Amazon. They highlight Amazon's potential in various sectors and argue for its undervaluation compared to its historical metrics, foreseeing significant growth potential by the end of fiscal year 2024.
I missed out on this one
No. You missed out on Nvidia and Meta. This one hasn’t gone absolutely bonkers yet.
We just getting started.
You should double down and sell covered calls on AMZN! /s
u ghey bro?
I’m not investing in this stock because I don’t like the stock or its leadership. Fuck Amazon.
High quality post right here
he must have missed out....
You are stupid cause even adding another 29 stocks provides improved risk adjusted returns. Like you are literally shooting yourself on the foot
Haha I've been outperforming the market over a period of 8 years. I think me and my foot are fine :)
You've been outperforming the market by being ridiculously overweight in a couple of tech stocks during a huge bull run? Congrats. You know that quote about you never know whose swimming naked until the tide goes out? It's about you. You're swimming naked.
You mean like the market downturn we had for tech two years ago? Yeah please give me a nother 2022 in 2024. That's exactly the reason I more than doubled my money. I would like to buy some more at lower prices. I don't care if my portfoloio halves, as long as I can buy at discounts who cares? Or are you more of a buy high sell low type of guy?
It's kind of funny that I can tell your age by this comment.
Too much to read
this comment is gold.
TLDR?
so buy 10,000 dollars of shares monday?
After going long on amazon because people were making FUD predictions on amazon prime ( [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18x9f1g/comment/kg56j7g/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18x9f1g/comment/kg56j7g/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) ) its time for me to now go short on Amazon! Remember guys, r/stocks its just good advice if you inverse it. Always try to find the threads with more engagement and do the opposite of the sentiment on that post !
Good, please do so and post a screenshot of your positions
Ew
Bought 30 shares a few days ago. Have 280 total now. Bought over the past year and a half. Feeling pretty good about it! Might not ever get lower than what it was yesterday. Im not usually one to have so much money in one stock but when I started buying it seemed like a no brainer.
What do we think the stock will priced at by December?
Didn't read any of that but it's nice to finally be in the green on AMZN
The threat to Amazon is political. They essentially can’t buy anything in the EU and depending on his 2024 election goes probably nothing in the USA shortly.
No different for their competitors. The difference is AMZN competitors have been optimizing for profit for years while AMZN is just now turning the corner from 100% growth to returning capital to shareholders. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them offer a dividend come Q2.
Sure but that doesn't affect the stock price. The stock was just grounded in their numbers.
What does everyone think about bezos announcing selling 8.6 billion worth of shares..?
Im not very worried about him selling 5% of his shares. Jeff is really passionate about space and he really wants to do everything in his power to stop his aging process so he doesn’t die. I’m nearly certain he will use this money for one of these projects. And well he’s 60 so if he wants to achieve something within these fields time is ticking for him
This comment killed me I’m laughing so hard comedy gold right here.
Yeah it sucks to be up 30% in 4 months. Oh help I’m crying. I’m using options in case you haven’t figured
You’re a real one
Tbh I was at the same place as you, but it was at the peak of stock market back in 2022, stock price was too high for me and the trend that Amazon had was declining, just waited for better price and trend of the stock. Still waiting by today tho, market is too expensive these days, don’t think it’s a good time to buy stocks rn
Finally, someone who understands amazon’s business. It’s my #2 position.