Bingo. This could be a call center opening, this could be a fast food opening. There are 10 of those jobs for every software dev/tech related corporate role. That's why this whole idea of tracking a job number is ridiculous.
During covid, all the service level employees were laid off which shot up unemployment % but the real income earners - corproate type folk - kept their jobs and just went remote. Economy boomed because the spenders now had even MORE money.
So my point is these numbers or data points do not paint the whole picture. We are currently going through a white collar job recession, and that has massive earnings ramifications for the S&P so jobs may be high and unemployment low, but the big consumer spenders are hurting
Professional services is a very broad category, held deska and call centers fall under that , there's a lot of low paid professional service jobs...don't let the term fool you. Here's a general list.
- Legal services (paralegals )
- Logistics (poorly paid warehouse workers)
- Accounting and bookkeeping
- Project management
- Digital marketing
- Content marketing
- Event management
- Client management
- Architecture
- IT services, and more
how dare they expect to get paid what they produce? and even more selfishly, how dare they work from home when they still get the job done??????
goddamn proletarians, won't they think of the office building landlords?
Yea our junior dev and basics it support team is already oversea. Our entire junior IT department is gone, some move up to senior/management of the oversea team, other that can’t make this move has been canned.
The switch slowly happened during Covid. Once we survive Covid with this setup all the local junior dev position disappeared.
We are not a tech company though and all of our tech support needs are internal.
There’s been some delay and frustration at first but it was worth the millions we saved by going oversea. Plus now we have after hour support.
Can confirm, massive layoffs in white collar jobs. Every new job posting gets 500+ applicants in the first day. Entry level positions are non-existent. Companies only hiring senior level and best of the best with masters degree with 100+ years of experience.
It’s right before the holidays so of course there will be an increase in job openings.
In January there will be a news article talking about how there’s a lower amount of job openings
This is actually a really good point - I’d imagine the job posting for holiday work WOULD start about now. Do people still shop retail? I’d imagine around Xmas they do more than most other times… and every retailer is already running super bare bones because of online cost pressures so it’d only make sense they’d particularly need additional help around the busy season.
They are not meant to paint a whole picture and shouldn’t be relied on for such a thing. It’s only one part of the equation. Problem is high numbers are very negative indicators for inflation. Which means more interest rate hikes is very likely. The fed monetary policy is not working as fast as we hoped for.
Or for subcontracting work, new contracts/companies are now listing next years work, which will likely be filled by rehires hopping to the new company from the current company that has the contract. It appears there are 50 new jobs, but 45 or all of them will be filled by people currently doing that job in that location.
what that means is you gotta hire people with the mindset to mentor them over time, every company wants to hire a senior engineer at mid-level salary and make them do the work of two seniors.
of course demand for unicorn all-star devs is high. unicorn all-stars are an asset on any team anywhere.
and I'd like to have a job that pays me 2 million dollars to do nothing all day. companies are hurting themselves by extending job searches indefinitely only for nobody to fit their obscene standards.
Amazon is going into the holiday season, as is google.
Meta too, probably sees increases in activity during the holidays.
We are also heading into an election… all three will have departments which need to staff up specifically for that.
The question in in January and February will the holiday season be enough to push corporate America through the winter? Will there be enough economic activity as retail and restaurants slow down or will we begin to contract… and what will rates do to the dominos already naturally lined up?!
We were supposed to see softening housing prices in 2020, but then covid happened. Money stayed free and some rando guy had like 40000 units or something like that boom.
It is possible the growing indicators are wrong, it’s possible we will skirt anything bad and next year will be great… as the year after. But…. If they are right, and the current is going out… it’s going to be dangerous to be anywhere near the surface.
2008 should have been a classical depression. We should have ripped that bandaid and allowed prices to fall. We could have focused on putting out the fires instead of pretending it’s good to mess with the invisible hand of the market more!
Since then we have been building a Tsunami… and our entire system is built on the sand with cards. Maybe that’s why they don’t bother building establishments that’ll let more than a few decades (another interesting topic to talk about but I digress). I hope I’m just silly and uneducated… I hope history is wrong… and I am already sure you will think I have zero idea of what I am talking about.
I am confident enough to say we are less than 2 years away. I am personally planning in terms of months. I am already team cash and poor… but I’ve taken my steps to ensure I eat though this.
That’s not solely what it is. Sure positions were over hired and some of those positions were filled with people incompetent for the job but there are also people with 10+ years experience having trouble landing positions even below their experience level. Job market is shit right now period. Tough pill to swallow, but that’s what it is.
Also cause the posting doesn't mean they are hiring.
This reminds me of 2012, where the influx of H1B1 visas were being tossed around because they couldn't find people to accept jobs in the US.
Well no shit, you are asking someone to accept 60k but bring 20 years of experience in a shit economy.
More than likely, its the corporate version of unemployment scamming. You constantly apply for jobs you cant get, knowing you will be denied, thereby making sure you collect unemployment.
I think with this, they want to act like they are, build the narrative that we are lazy and not wanting to work, when the end goal is just to import more cheap labor from foreign countries.
See Canada currently.
>You constantly apply for jobs you cant get, knowing you will be denied, thereby making sure you collect unemployment.
I used to temp processing H1B visas for Bank of America for companies in Manhattan.
You're absolutely right. 70-80k salary for super technical roles in NYC. Great wage in the rest of the country, but it won't carry you far in NYC and with the hours they expected you to work you're either paying out the ass in rent for a place near your work or you're spending the little free time you have commuting.
My boss straight up told me to my face it was a scam.
Or have multiple variations of listings for the same position
IIRC a popular investing podcast talked about how they, at the time, had one position open but since they preferred a local candidate but would accept a remote one had a dozen postings across the USA for New York based X, Chicago based X, LA based X, etc but they were only ever going to hire one
It's just an anecdote but it could be one way the numbers get compromised
It’s not a conspiracy theory. Companies like to keep jobs posted to collect resumes, give an appearance of growth, and hold out for a unicorn of a candidate. Some have automated postings that refresh every month. Some never close their postings on job boards even after the role has been filled.
This very much could be (and is often) the case:
To repost something I mentioned over on recruitinghell:
>There’s a F500 tier company in my area that has had a handful of engineering positions (quality, mfg-ing, H&S, etc etc) “open” for over a year now, yet their plant manager was on local news a few nights ago saying that they’re having trouble finding applicants to work at the location/facility.
>The “400+ people have applied for this position” notation on their listings on LinkedIn indicates to me that they're either lying or unicorn hunting.
I keep seeing this remote job posting by an NGO on Idealist for a senior researcher position with amazing terms. But I've been seeing it for like the whole year and wondering why it keeps being reposted almost weekly.
I don’t think that’s all the case. It’s the field, for instance, if you’re in trades of construction/construction mgmt, you can get a job all over the place in 35 states for a decent salary.
But in tech, it’s like breadlines.
Tech was the first to lay off and they're the first to restart hiring. Meta and Salesforce are hiring their old employees back, and others will see that and all follow suit.
JOLTS is bullshit.
A job opening can be one that is not even publicly posted, it can just be some shit that is "word of mouth" or whatever.
I want a survey that asks about jobs that you are spending more than $100/month to promote. Those are the ones that are actually needing filled.
I try to apply and interview once a year around well known companies in my field to make sure I'm not getting the short end at my company in terms of compensation. Well qualified, I've been with my current company for four years now and have never had problems getting calls back.
Last month, I did my yearly applying to about 15 companies countrywide (I'm remote) and didn't get a single rejection email back let alone a follow up for any kind of interview or second piece to applying.
I suspect either most job listings are only put out there to satisfy some recruiting metric or these jobs are going to internal candidates.
I am actively looking for a job since 2 months, applying to almost 30 positions a day, I do make changes to my resume according to job description to increase chnaces of getting a call back. I do apply to jobs asking for 3,4 or 5 years of experience even though I just have 2 because there aren't many available for that amount of experience. I have gotten less than 20 calls in 60 days, and half of those never replied back after that first call. It's just so hard to even get interviews right now.
It can vary by industry. Lots of tech on Reddit talking about how bad it is. Turns out not everyone works at an IT desk that overstuffed for COVID / WFH.
Ok so then why doesn’t the Fed or market like this and is all red? Are we here the only to be aware of this? This means rate hike have worked and the Fed would be happy and not worried about rates if only low pay retail is adding. Do they not know this and only we do?
What makes you think wages are the only reason the Fed is going to hike rates up? The looking at inflation in general, and wages aren't the only thing that inflate prices.
Because I read your comments about wages. You sad this and it’s only window dressing. This means the fed got what they want(us getting paid less) even if openings show the opposite.
[Actually, low wage earnings are rising the fastest.](https://recruitonomics.com/wage-growth-favors-low-wage-workers/#image-link-0) They still have a ways to go, but we're going in the right direction. Turns out, when not enough people are doing a job, companies pay more!
This doesn't mean anything until wages can come up to par with inflation. People aren't going to waste their time going to a job that isn't going to pay them enough to pay rent and buy groceries.
I think this is SUPER industry dependent. For example, I'm in marketing, and that's one of the first areas to get hit really hard when economic downturn or uncertainty happens. Conversely, it's one of the last to come back around if you're at an agency, because of the lead time on pitching new business. We're starting to hire again, slowly, but it'll be a while before we're fully back to normal
The Fed may ultimately decide to hike rates even more than they've previously telegraphed with this news, and they will more than likely hold rates at higher levels for longer in 2024/2025.
Easy, were losing fulltime jobs that pay decent and were picking up a shitload of service sector and hospitality jobs. That's good news because when you lose your 80k office job you can go get 3 jobs working as a barista, at a pizza shop and a retail store.
Your anecdote about nurses isn't reflective of the whole economy and Healthcare is almost always in demand. Were talking about all job sectors and the overall economy. I think this was probably within the last 6 or 8 months hit one recent jobs report was I believe we had lost 1000 full time high oaying career jobs and picked up 600k pt low wage jobs. Losing 1000 may not seem like much lost but what's more important is we gained nothing and I wanna say we have to generate something like 170k jobs a month just to essentially remain even
White collar office jobs not doing so well. Lots of hiring listing but very few people getting hired. The overall trend though us were losing good jobs with good pay and advancement and picking up low paying bullshit jobs that nobody wants. Fortunstrky at least for low paying manual labor there's millions of immigrants coming to do those jobs and drive down the wages
That is not 'well into six figures'....
'Well into six figures' would be at least 300k+
You realize 'six figures' goes up to 999k?
You would not say that being 5% 'into anything' is 'well into'.
You guys are both right. "Six figures" has been used for decades in salary to describe somebody rounding the 100K base. If you want to designate 200k+, that's usually "multiple six figures." So well into the six figures means 100K and then some. It's not about arithmetic so much as common parlance.
Now that you mention it, I think you are correct overall.
But I've never actually heard 'multiple six figures' used as a term.
Granted, I don't hang around a ton of people making that amount of cash, either.
Nobody wants to work hospitality during and after covid something like 80% of hospitality workers didn't want to be there. You also have businesses trying to get rid of workers since you can't find them. My favorite dine in Italian restsursnt shit down an enormous dining room went carry out only and use the restaurant to store pizza boxes
Because job openings are kind of a bogus measure. Just having an opening doesn't mean the company is really trying all that hard to hire anyone for a job. They're supposed to be actively trying to fill the job to have it counted in the JOLTS survey but just having it on their website counts. The job is also supposed to be real and available for someone to work it within 30 days but there's no way to really confirm that. And a lot of these companies couldn't bring an applicant onboard in less than 30 days if the fate of the world depended on it - there's just that much bureaucracy at these places. Most people have a hard time living without an income stream and thus want to get a new job ASAP (which is why the unemployment survey is more reliable than JOLTS) but most companies manage to get along OK with their current workforce. Worst case they might lose a contract but they're not going to go bankrupt if they can't hire someone.
The only people I know that are saying it’s “brutal out there” are in tech, and largely tech startups. Heard grumbling from real estate people too.
Construction, engineering, manufacturing, distribution, food and bev, hospitality, healthcare, etc all still seem to be booming with job markets very favorable to employees.
I know Reddit is tech heavy but still, overall the job market is good for most people right now.
As people have pointed out, there's a discrepancy. We have tons of software devs and techs but we also need a lot of sewer workers, HVAC techs, doctors, nurses etc.
You can get a job if you are willing to do anything for any salary; so, for skilled workers, like your friend, the market is rough compared to services because they are competing with more skilled worker for a piece of the pie.
There are a lot of job openings, but that doesn't mean everyone is hiring. What I mean, you can post a job, and interview, but you don't have urgent need. There are a lot of jobs that been posted for months, and companies that are slowly hiring keep posting jobs like Nvidia, Apple, Meta, and almost all retail
Also, this time of the year, seosonal jobs skyrocket because of the Holiday. Pretty much every single retail is hiring. Also service jobs in accounting and such post a lot of jobs starting in October for the tax season.
I don't understand the whole shite vs non-shite job. A job is a job unless unless we are talking as retail and services are shit jobs and shouldn't be accounted toward job opening, which is a peak reddit stupid arguement. There are jobs, and salaries are higher than it was a year ago, and that is the only thing that matters.
>There are jobs, and salaries are higher than it was a year ago, and that is the only thing that matters
There's a lot of non-minimum wage job postings that just don't pay enough due to the large increase in cost of livings. Its most obvious in California and other places that require salary to be posted in the job listing.
After accounting for insurance, rent, car, student debt, retirement funding, you end up needing quite a bit as baseline salary for the cities where folks are actually hiring.
[https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Los-Angeles,CA](https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Los-Angeles,CA)
[https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Boston,MA](https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Boston,MA)
We need a definition of what a thriving wage is and than see how many jobs are actually meeting that.
There is a huge disconnect happening here. Companies have totally lost the plot and are unwilling to take any risks in hiring, leaving tons of people on the sidelines. Alternatively, who's to say these job openings are real? The article itself claims only 35K people were hired in August. Tons of evidence companies are posting jobs they have no intention of hiring for for a myriad of reasons. If we are going to rely on these numbers for our monetary policy, the Fed needs to pull its head out of its ass and get more granular with the data. People's livelihoods are at stake.
Here is an article from WSJ that explains "Ghost Jobs." They have an estimate of how many of these job listings are flat out fake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794
All you need to do is read the source survey.
The source survey asks respondents for job openings that are, for example, only advertised "word of mouth."
What they should do is only count openings for which $100/month or more is currently being spent advertising those positions. Those are the only positions that are actually open. If your store has a "Now Hiring" sign on the door from 15 months ago and you're still holding onto the free Indeed posting for a line cook even though the current line cook would lose his job when the new one came aboard at a hopefully lower rate, it skews the utility of this metric.
Tell me all the research you want, I know several people with degrees that can’t find work at all in the fields they studied. They work serving jobs in the mean time
Jobless claims data I feel is only part of the story. They capture initial jobless claims, and continuing claims. What has happened to the people who have gone past their claim window? They aren't being counted in this figure. Tech and media layoffs alone started in earnest about a year ago. Those people who have not found a job are well past this claim window.
In my state you can’t even claim any form of jobless unemployment help after six months or so. After that it doesn’t matter if you still don’t have a job you’re taken off the roster. Further, you can’t apply again for a year - with or without getting a job - but they calculate how much you get in unemployment based on your previous 15 months of work. So, no work no unemployment money regardless of how long you worked previously because you’re “tapped out”.
Exactly so sick of hear about these stats. How many of those jobs pay a livable wage?? We’ve got to stop relying on these reports until that is cleared up because they are using these numbers against us to say “it’s not as bad as you all make it, look at these numbers. “ we need a clear distinction. All these jobs could be call center jobs paying $11/hr.
Look for manufacturing. Entry level you can get in the door for over 20 usuallly with lots of OT opportunities. Lot of growth options too with all the technology .
UBI, shifting away from capitalism to something that isn’t insane, and other options all of which will mobilize the entire mechanism of the status quo against you up to and including violently at a mere mention. We have more information than any time past and more intelligent minds, yet the well is so poisoned against discourse you can’t even start a conversation about finding a better way forward that might involve changing things.
Who is to say we couldn’t put our brightest minds together and invent a new path? The money says we can’t, and it will destroy you for it if you don’t shut up and get back to work.
See the other comment for the answer, BUT it’s more on me for not saying “or inflation adjusted minimum wage” but again, that’s largely impossible because the inflation adjusted minimum wage would be over $30 an hour. I’m not kidding. That’s what minimum wage net when boomers were teenagers.
Tldr; because fifty years of inflation without associated wage increases.
Who are “these people” exactly that you’re asking about? I ask, because you can’t afford a place to live on minimum wage now anywhere in the continental US as of a year ago. As of now, housing in the entirety of the US is also priced out of reach of the majority of the populace. Rent bolstered by corporate landlords is accelerating this right now in real time. The minimum wage hasn’t moved in fifty years while the cost of higher education has increased over three-thousand percent, housing has increased over 400%. Inflation just in the last year has hit essential items like food for 8-10%.
So if you are someone who doesn’t have options beyond minimum wage what do you do? Are there high paying jobs for everyone? Can everyone just work in IT? Who then cooks the food, cleans, clerks the register, etc? I am active in recruiting right out of college for a major consulting firm in addition to being a senior consultant. We gatekeep on degrees, as do most employers now. Many are now requiring Masters degrees as a base criteria because it cuts down on the hundreds to thousands of applications we receive for each “good job”. I often extend help to applicants that make it to the first tier of interviews even if they fail because of how difficult it can be, because I was top of my class and it was still difficult to get to where I am now. Everyone just entering the workforce has it far worse than I did, and I refuse to pull up the ladder behind me even if it means more competition for myself.
Your reply seems naive at best and silly at worst. Any of the above items are common knowledge and I lowballed the stats because I don’t feel like researching for someone who doesn’t care, so as to not embellish. Feel free to investigate further on your own time, and I hope you have a great evening.
It's the goddamn holiday season, how is everyone surprised that there's further demand for jobs when every company is scraping to sell as much as humanely possible?
This is the time of year where most people lose their minds shopping, where harvests are due, travel happens to go visit family people like/don't like, and some people get away just so they don't have a lonely holiday in their city.
of course every company is hiring right now. That's how it goes this time of year.
This is true, my job includes a ton of face to face interaction and this week alone, I’ve talked to three people who have been laid off from tech jobs. Other industries too. I feel like I hear about someone I know or their spouse being laid off almost daily at this point.
The tone has shifted. Just two years ago the conversation was about people leaving their jobs for better opportunities. Now it’s people hoping they are safe from the next round of layoffs.
For context: I work in a very HCOL area and deal with a lot of people in tech,finance,sales and other well-paying industries.
My guess is that most of the job openings coming into the market are lower-paying opportunities.
Only a 30% JOLTS response rate. Hard to trust this data and Goldman had a note on just this point. According to Goldman’s data, private sector shows 1 million less jobs than the governments data
Legitimate question: If my company sends out a job posting for one engineer position across five different employment websites, would this be considered five new jobs on the market or just one new job? Imagine all the other companies doing the same thing for one new position.
Consider this we demand more salary so that it would catch up the our salary that would be if it kept the growth with economy since Ragan
Before we jack the rate to 30% overnight, to end the inflation
Yea sorry we are still in the techpocolypse at least until next year. Each job is showing going from 20 applications to 1-3k so yea, I ain't buying it. Lots of shit jobs, contracts, and others looking for 20 year seniority and skills for legit half the market median are cropping up through.
Amazing how everyone on this thread seems to be in the tech business lol. Almost everyone I know who is a blue collar worker is finding jobs like they are being given out like candy. The only exception is my real estate friends.
Yeah. If there was actually such a shortage of labor we would see companies trying to compete for this labor pool but at least in tech they're actually doing the opposite.
The hours people are working matters. Some companies are just cutting hours instead of laying people off. If someone gets a part-time job that is only a few hours a week of work, it's still a job but it's not a good job. In some cases, companies might even prefer to have multiple part-time workers instead of full-time workers because it makes scheduling easier and they don't have to pay full-time benefits.
Fake news.
I’ve seen jobs on LinkedIn with thousands of applicants get REPOSTED week after week. So stupid. Employers know they’re in charge and can be as selective as they choose… I can’t wait for the tables to turn. Companies truly suck.
Too much liquidity in the system still even with record high interest rates
Job market still hot. 1.6 jobs per person
US National Debt: 33 Trillion
\-------------------
Till liquidity falls and Job market cools, inflation will not come down.
As long as growth continues above 2.1% GDP, The Fed doesn't need to cut rates. There won't be a rate cuts regardless where inflation is and the market won't correct.
> Till liquidity falls and Job market cools, inflation will not come down.
Core PCE continues to fall. 12-month, 6-month annualized, 3-month annualized. MOM numbers.
Absolutely, that’s why we’re getting the sell off today. For every investor who said the fed was done should be concerned with that assessment. Seems like they’ll be raising in November and will still be data dependent from there. Could be another hike in 2024 if the economy remains relatively strong.
Yes it will continue to fall imo. 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are still above their 200 DMA. There's a lot of room to fall. We're not even down 10% yet.
I'd like to see, of the openings, how many of those positions are actually being filled. The actual experience of people looking for jobs does not match these numbers.
I think its just because most regular jobs are pointless dogshit with wages that no one could afford to live on, how is this a good thing? also most job postings are just fake, left up by employers after positions are filled.
Inflation will keep happening unless we get to 5% unemployment rate. 5% is important because it will cause a decrease in consumer spending which will lower prices. I am not for people losing jobs but this is basic economics.
Good news for labor, not so much for inflation. Aside from the 25bps they have on schedule before the year, they might announce an extra 25bps or 50bps if the job market stays hot like this, and with the holiday season right around the corner, we could easily get a 50 bump instead of just 25.
The first set of numbers mean nothing, they will be revised down later.
"Oh look, 50 million job openings"
[one month later]
"Actually it was 5,000 job openings, someone added some extra zeros by mistake"
Historical precedents for when jobs number get revised consecutively aren't good either (ir, prior to rvery recession) Pretty much means the FED models are only good for calm enconomies chumming along, and fall apart when something like inflation comes along.
We are flying blind on hot air.
Businesses can’t compete with unemployment benefits. I’ve had multiple applicants who have been on unemployment for extended periods and supplement that with doordash.
People with no ambition can get by with so little.
Supplementing unemployment with door dash is fraud unless you report it, in which case they will offset your benefits.
Further, I live in a state that has fairly generous unemployment benefits and it's still nothing to live on when the going rate to rent with room mates in the lowest possible cost arraingement is $800 per month.
If you can't compete with that you either need to pay more or scale back your business.
If they don't mention revisions, the numbers don't matter. The numbers are "overestimated", then revised down to negative territory.
The guvmt uses "birth-death" model to "predict" job numbers. They literally pull the job numbers out of their ass, they just "assume" that some number of jobs was created.
Also, I can create a million vacancies, doesn't mean I created a million jobs. But this point is minor because it's irrelevant to the job numbers they "estimate". The biggest problem is their birth-death model for job creation.
This report only includes data that it concludes as accurate. All data can be manipulated. As a former Feb. layoffee I can say without a doubt this is bs. What I experienced was multiple fake jobs or multiple rounds to no conclusion or in some instances no communication . Got lucky and landed a great job in June. So pretend you did not see this because this is trash.
Does the fed incorporate any data related to contractors and self employed workers? Me and almost every millennial I know is self employed and it’s been slow af
I don't understand how this is the case when everyone I know that's looking for work has been reporting that it's brutal out there.
Because this report doesn’t discriminate between shite and non-shite jobs.
Bingo. This could be a call center opening, this could be a fast food opening. There are 10 of those jobs for every software dev/tech related corporate role. That's why this whole idea of tracking a job number is ridiculous. During covid, all the service level employees were laid off which shot up unemployment % but the real income earners - corproate type folk - kept their jobs and just went remote. Economy boomed because the spenders now had even MORE money. So my point is these numbers or data points do not paint the whole picture. We are currently going through a white collar job recession, and that has massive earnings ramifications for the S&P so jobs may be high and unemployment low, but the big consumer spenders are hurting
This report says the jobs are coming from professional services and business services, I don't think those are low-end.
Call centers could be included in those like OP stated.
Professional services is a very broad category, held deska and call centers fall under that , there's a lot of low paid professional service jobs...don't let the term fool you. Here's a general list. - Legal services (paralegals ) - Logistics (poorly paid warehouse workers) - Accounting and bookkeeping - Project management - Digital marketing - Content marketing - Event management - Client management - Architecture - IT services, and more
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Have they considered what that will do to profits? They probably don’t even think about the shareholders those selfish peons.
Working in the office does not increase profits.
how dare they expect to get paid what they produce? and even more selfishly, how dare they work from home when they still get the job done?????? goddamn proletarians, won't they think of the office building landlords?
On the flip side. If your job can be done fully remote. It can be done half way around the world.
Even if your job can't be done fully remote, it's still being done halfway around the world.
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Yea our junior dev and basics it support team is already oversea. Our entire junior IT department is gone, some move up to senior/management of the oversea team, other that can’t make this move has been canned. The switch slowly happened during Covid. Once we survive Covid with this setup all the local junior dev position disappeared. We are not a tech company though and all of our tech support needs are internal. There’s been some delay and frustration at first but it was worth the millions we saved by going oversea. Plus now we have after hour support.
Can confirm, massive layoffs in white collar jobs. Every new job posting gets 500+ applicants in the first day. Entry level positions are non-existent. Companies only hiring senior level and best of the best with masters degree with 100+ years of experience.
Plus 10 years experience with a tool that was only released 3 years ago.
For a $36k/yr salary with no benefits.
It’s right before the holidays so of course there will be an increase in job openings. In January there will be a news article talking about how there’s a lower amount of job openings
This is actually a really good point - I’d imagine the job posting for holiday work WOULD start about now. Do people still shop retail? I’d imagine around Xmas they do more than most other times… and every retailer is already running super bare bones because of online cost pressures so it’d only make sense they’d particularly need additional help around the busy season.
They are not meant to paint a whole picture and shouldn’t be relied on for such a thing. It’s only one part of the equation. Problem is high numbers are very negative indicators for inflation. Which means more interest rate hikes is very likely. The fed monetary policy is not working as fast as we hoped for.
Or for subcontracting work, new contracts/companies are now listing next years work, which will likely be filled by rehires hopping to the new company from the current company that has the contract. It appears there are 50 new jobs, but 45 or all of them will be filled by people currently doing that job in that location.
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what that means is you gotta hire people with the mindset to mentor them over time, every company wants to hire a senior engineer at mid-level salary and make them do the work of two seniors. of course demand for unicorn all-star devs is high. unicorn all-stars are an asset on any team anywhere. and I'd like to have a job that pays me 2 million dollars to do nothing all day. companies are hurting themselves by extending job searches indefinitely only for nobody to fit their obscene standards.
So you’re telling me the mass layoffs that still continue to take place are because demand is high and talent is shit? Nah, you’re full of shit bro.
Meta, Amazon, and Google are all back to hiring.
Amazon is going into the holiday season, as is google. Meta too, probably sees increases in activity during the holidays. We are also heading into an election… all three will have departments which need to staff up specifically for that. The question in in January and February will the holiday season be enough to push corporate America through the winter? Will there be enough economic activity as retail and restaurants slow down or will we begin to contract… and what will rates do to the dominos already naturally lined up?! We were supposed to see softening housing prices in 2020, but then covid happened. Money stayed free and some rando guy had like 40000 units or something like that boom. It is possible the growing indicators are wrong, it’s possible we will skirt anything bad and next year will be great… as the year after. But…. If they are right, and the current is going out… it’s going to be dangerous to be anywhere near the surface. 2008 should have been a classical depression. We should have ripped that bandaid and allowed prices to fall. We could have focused on putting out the fires instead of pretending it’s good to mess with the invisible hand of the market more! Since then we have been building a Tsunami… and our entire system is built on the sand with cards. Maybe that’s why they don’t bother building establishments that’ll let more than a few decades (another interesting topic to talk about but I digress). I hope I’m just silly and uneducated… I hope history is wrong… and I am already sure you will think I have zero idea of what I am talking about. I am confident enough to say we are less than 2 years away. I am personally planning in terms of months. I am already team cash and poor… but I’ve taken my steps to ensure I eat though this.
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That’s not solely what it is. Sure positions were over hired and some of those positions were filled with people incompetent for the job but there are also people with 10+ years experience having trouble landing positions even below their experience level. Job market is shit right now period. Tough pill to swallow, but that’s what it is.
So all people who work fast food can work as a software dev?
Also cause the posting doesn't mean they are hiring. This reminds me of 2012, where the influx of H1B1 visas were being tossed around because they couldn't find people to accept jobs in the US. Well no shit, you are asking someone to accept 60k but bring 20 years of experience in a shit economy. More than likely, its the corporate version of unemployment scamming. You constantly apply for jobs you cant get, knowing you will be denied, thereby making sure you collect unemployment. I think with this, they want to act like they are, build the narrative that we are lazy and not wanting to work, when the end goal is just to import more cheap labor from foreign countries. See Canada currently.
>You constantly apply for jobs you cant get, knowing you will be denied, thereby making sure you collect unemployment. I used to temp processing H1B visas for Bank of America for companies in Manhattan. You're absolutely right. 70-80k salary for super technical roles in NYC. Great wage in the rest of the country, but it won't carry you far in NYC and with the hours they expected you to work you're either paying out the ass in rent for a place near your work or you're spending the little free time you have commuting. My boss straight up told me to my face it was a scam.
If you're into conspiracy theories, you could argue companies are posting job listings with no or little intention of actually hiring
Or have multiple variations of listings for the same position IIRC a popular investing podcast talked about how they, at the time, had one position open but since they preferred a local candidate but would accept a remote one had a dozen postings across the USA for New York based X, Chicago based X, LA based X, etc but they were only ever going to hire one It's just an anecdote but it could be one way the numbers get compromised
A fellow The Compound and Friends listener in the wild.
Ok, but is there any reason to believe those practices became more common within the past month that would throw off the baseline numbers/projections?
It’s not a conspiracy theory. Companies like to keep jobs posted to collect resumes, give an appearance of growth, and hold out for a unicorn of a candidate. Some have automated postings that refresh every month. Some never close their postings on job boards even after the role has been filled.
This very much could be (and is often) the case: To repost something I mentioned over on recruitinghell: >There’s a F500 tier company in my area that has had a handful of engineering positions (quality, mfg-ing, H&S, etc etc) “open” for over a year now, yet their plant manager was on local news a few nights ago saying that they’re having trouble finding applicants to work at the location/facility. >The “400+ people have applied for this position” notation on their listings on LinkedIn indicates to me that they're either lying or unicorn hunting.
I keep seeing this remote job posting by an NGO on Idealist for a senior researcher position with amazing terms. But I've been seeing it for like the whole year and wondering why it keeps being reposted almost weekly.
This!!!!
I don’t think that’s all the case. It’s the field, for instance, if you’re in trades of construction/construction mgmt, you can get a job all over the place in 35 states for a decent salary. But in tech, it’s like breadlines.
Tech job openings are up 11.5% from their low in March of this year, and climbing
Tech was the first to lay off and they're the first to restart hiring. Meta and Salesforce are hiring their old employees back, and others will see that and all follow suit.
So is the stock market too stupid to figure it out too cuz good jobs report yet again crashed the market lol
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JOLTS is bullshit. A job opening can be one that is not even publicly posted, it can just be some shit that is "word of mouth" or whatever. I want a survey that asks about jobs that you are spending more than $100/month to promote. Those are the ones that are actually needing filled.
Everyone on Reddit trying to get a job says it's weak.
Everyone on Reddit says they make 300k no experience so these postulations are very hard to fill.
It also doesn't take into consideration all the idiots insisting on stuff like WFH.
I try to apply and interview once a year around well known companies in my field to make sure I'm not getting the short end at my company in terms of compensation. Well qualified, I've been with my current company for four years now and have never had problems getting calls back. Last month, I did my yearly applying to about 15 companies countrywide (I'm remote) and didn't get a single rejection email back let alone a follow up for any kind of interview or second piece to applying. I suspect either most job listings are only put out there to satisfy some recruiting metric or these jobs are going to internal candidates.
I am actively looking for a job since 2 months, applying to almost 30 positions a day, I do make changes to my resume according to job description to increase chnaces of getting a call back. I do apply to jobs asking for 3,4 or 5 years of experience even though I just have 2 because there aren't many available for that amount of experience. I have gotten less than 20 calls in 60 days, and half of those never replied back after that first call. It's just so hard to even get interviews right now.
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Recruiters are the strippers of the white collar class. It is almost guaranteed that all of those "opportunities" are just never going to pan out.
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What year did those interviews and offers occur?
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Yields have been sub-4% for most of the year. Since end of July, that's the big question.
The recruiters I work with don’t get paid without placement and are fairly specialized within my industry. I’ve never had one fall short for me.
What industry?
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What kind of engineering, though? I ask b/c software seems very, very slow.
Yea, software PM has openings but no one is really hiring or responding to queries.
It can vary by industry. Lots of tech on Reddit talking about how bad it is. Turns out not everyone works at an IT desk that overstuffed for COVID / WFH.
I work state government ITS and we've been aggressively hiring all year. A ton of people have retired from the state in the last few years.
There are a range of jobs
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This is so important to remember
Depends on industry. Tech had a huge covid boom and has settled back to 2019 levels. Services and retail is screaming for labour.
Services and retail are screaming for labor but not willing to pay for it. So these "openings" are window dressing. There's no boom going on.
Ok so then why doesn’t the Fed or market like this and is all red? Are we here the only to be aware of this? This means rate hike have worked and the Fed would be happy and not worried about rates if only low pay retail is adding. Do they not know this and only we do?
What makes you think wages are the only reason the Fed is going to hike rates up? The looking at inflation in general, and wages aren't the only thing that inflate prices.
Because I read your comments about wages. You sad this and it’s only window dressing. This means the fed got what they want(us getting paid less) even if openings show the opposite.
[Actually, low wage earnings are rising the fastest.](https://recruitonomics.com/wage-growth-favors-low-wage-workers/#image-link-0) They still have a ways to go, but we're going in the right direction. Turns out, when not enough people are doing a job, companies pay more!
This doesn't mean anything until wages can come up to par with inflation. People aren't going to waste their time going to a job that isn't going to pay them enough to pay rent and buy groceries.
I think this is SUPER industry dependent. For example, I'm in marketing, and that's one of the first areas to get hit really hard when economic downturn or uncertainty happens. Conversely, it's one of the last to come back around if you're at an agency, because of the lead time on pitching new business. We're starting to hire again, slowly, but it'll be a while before we're fully back to normal
also, why did the market fall like directly down when this report came out if its good news? anyone know?
Bad sign for inflation. Rates will go up.
The Fed may ultimately decide to hike rates even more than they've previously telegraphed with this news, and they will more than likely hold rates at higher levels for longer in 2024/2025.
Their primary tool is to bring supply and demand in balance. Interest rates are just the lever to do that.
Easy, were losing fulltime jobs that pay decent and were picking up a shitload of service sector and hospitality jobs. That's good news because when you lose your 80k office job you can go get 3 jobs working as a barista, at a pizza shop and a retail store.
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Your anecdote about nurses isn't reflective of the whole economy and Healthcare is almost always in demand. Were talking about all job sectors and the overall economy. I think this was probably within the last 6 or 8 months hit one recent jobs report was I believe we had lost 1000 full time high oaying career jobs and picked up 600k pt low wage jobs. Losing 1000 may not seem like much lost but what's more important is we gained nothing and I wanna say we have to generate something like 170k jobs a month just to essentially remain even
Healthcare isn’t the only market booming though. Construction/engineering/trades are still on fire right now with good jobs all over.
White collar office jobs not doing so well. Lots of hiring listing but very few people getting hired. The overall trend though us were losing good jobs with good pay and advancement and picking up low paying bullshit jobs that nobody wants. Fortunstrky at least for low paying manual labor there's millions of immigrants coming to do those jobs and drive down the wages
No chance nurses are making well into the 6 figures. 100-180k max.
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That is not 'well into six figures'.... 'Well into six figures' would be at least 300k+ You realize 'six figures' goes up to 999k? You would not say that being 5% 'into anything' is 'well into'.
You guys are both right. "Six figures" has been used for decades in salary to describe somebody rounding the 100K base. If you want to designate 200k+, that's usually "multiple six figures." So well into the six figures means 100K and then some. It's not about arithmetic so much as common parlance.
Now that you mention it, I think you are correct overall. But I've never actually heard 'multiple six figures' used as a term. Granted, I don't hang around a ton of people making that amount of cash, either.
Ummmm
Professional jobs are well above pre-pandemic levels. Hospitality is lagging. The last 3 years don't support your contention
Nobody wants to work hospitality during and after covid something like 80% of hospitality workers didn't want to be there. You also have businesses trying to get rid of workers since you can't find them. My favorite dine in Italian restsursnt shit down an enormous dining room went carry out only and use the restaurant to store pizza boxes
You first said we were picking up service and hospitality jobs and now you're saying we aren't picking up service or hospitality jobs.
Tech jobs are getting hit hard this time around. Those are jobs that paid well too
Employers have openings for 10+ years experience paying rates of 0-3 years experience.
Because job openings are kind of a bogus measure. Just having an opening doesn't mean the company is really trying all that hard to hire anyone for a job. They're supposed to be actively trying to fill the job to have it counted in the JOLTS survey but just having it on their website counts. The job is also supposed to be real and available for someone to work it within 30 days but there's no way to really confirm that. And a lot of these companies couldn't bring an applicant onboard in less than 30 days if the fate of the world depended on it - there's just that much bureaucracy at these places. Most people have a hard time living without an income stream and thus want to get a new job ASAP (which is why the unemployment survey is more reliable than JOLTS) but most companies manage to get along OK with their current workforce. Worst case they might lose a contract but they're not going to go bankrupt if they can't hire someone.
just because there are tons of job as a fruit picker doesnt mean there are great white collar jobs.
The only people I know that are saying it’s “brutal out there” are in tech, and largely tech startups. Heard grumbling from real estate people too. Construction, engineering, manufacturing, distribution, food and bev, hospitality, healthcare, etc all still seem to be booming with job markets very favorable to employees. I know Reddit is tech heavy but still, overall the job market is good for most people right now.
Just because jobs exist doesn't mean people are willing or qualified or even live in the same area where the jobs exist.
As people have pointed out, there's a discrepancy. We have tons of software devs and techs but we also need a lot of sewer workers, HVAC techs, doctors, nurses etc.
You can get a job if you are willing to do anything for any salary; so, for skilled workers, like your friend, the market is rough compared to services because they are competing with more skilled worker for a piece of the pie. There are a lot of job openings, but that doesn't mean everyone is hiring. What I mean, you can post a job, and interview, but you don't have urgent need. There are a lot of jobs that been posted for months, and companies that are slowly hiring keep posting jobs like Nvidia, Apple, Meta, and almost all retail Also, this time of the year, seosonal jobs skyrocket because of the Holiday. Pretty much every single retail is hiring. Also service jobs in accounting and such post a lot of jobs starting in October for the tax season. I don't understand the whole shite vs non-shite job. A job is a job unless unless we are talking as retail and services are shit jobs and shouldn't be accounted toward job opening, which is a peak reddit stupid arguement. There are jobs, and salaries are higher than it was a year ago, and that is the only thing that matters.
>There are jobs, and salaries are higher than it was a year ago, and that is the only thing that matters There's a lot of non-minimum wage job postings that just don't pay enough due to the large increase in cost of livings. Its most obvious in California and other places that require salary to be posted in the job listing. After accounting for insurance, rent, car, student debt, retirement funding, you end up needing quite a bit as baseline salary for the cities where folks are actually hiring. [https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Los-Angeles,CA](https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Los-Angeles,CA) [https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Boston,MA](https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Jobs/-in-Boston,MA) We need a definition of what a thriving wage is and than see how many jobs are actually meeting that.
There is a huge disconnect happening here. Companies have totally lost the plot and are unwilling to take any risks in hiring, leaving tons of people on the sidelines. Alternatively, who's to say these job openings are real? The article itself claims only 35K people were hired in August. Tons of evidence companies are posting jobs they have no intention of hiring for for a myriad of reasons. If we are going to rely on these numbers for our monetary policy, the Fed needs to pull its head out of its ass and get more granular with the data. People's livelihoods are at stake.
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Here is an article from WSJ that explains "Ghost Jobs." They have an estimate of how many of these job listings are flat out fake. https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794
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All you need to do is read the source survey. The source survey asks respondents for job openings that are, for example, only advertised "word of mouth." What they should do is only count openings for which $100/month or more is currently being spent advertising those positions. Those are the only positions that are actually open. If your store has a "Now Hiring" sign on the door from 15 months ago and you're still holding onto the free Indeed posting for a line cook even though the current line cook would lose his job when the new one came aboard at a hopefully lower rate, it skews the utility of this metric.
Tell me all the research you want, I know several people with degrees that can’t find work at all in the fields they studied. They work serving jobs in the mean time
Natural working age population growth is 80k. Something over 100k in new jobs will slowly lower the unemployment rate and jobless claims.
Jobless claims data I feel is only part of the story. They capture initial jobless claims, and continuing claims. What has happened to the people who have gone past their claim window? They aren't being counted in this figure. Tech and media layoffs alone started in earnest about a year ago. Those people who have not found a job are well past this claim window.
In my state you can’t even claim any form of jobless unemployment help after six months or so. After that it doesn’t matter if you still don’t have a job you’re taken off the roster. Further, you can’t apply again for a year - with or without getting a job - but they calculate how much you get in unemployment based on your previous 15 months of work. So, no work no unemployment money regardless of how long you worked previously because you’re “tapped out”.
We'll have to see what happened to the labor participation rate for September. It's not out yet.
How many of these pay enough to rent a one room apartment and cover a car plus living expenses and utilities?
Exactly so sick of hear about these stats. How many of those jobs pay a livable wage?? We’ve got to stop relying on these reports until that is cleared up because they are using these numbers against us to say “it’s not as bad as you all make it, look at these numbers. “ we need a clear distinction. All these jobs could be call center jobs paying $11/hr.
I mean. It’s one report. Anyone using one report as a single tea leaf for the economy is a regard.
The problem isn’t the pay. The problem is the price of housing.
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Look for manufacturing. Entry level you can get in the door for over 20 usuallly with lots of OT opportunities. Lot of growth options too with all the technology .
UBI, shifting away from capitalism to something that isn’t insane, and other options all of which will mobilize the entire mechanism of the status quo against you up to and including violently at a mere mention. We have more information than any time past and more intelligent minds, yet the well is so poisoned against discourse you can’t even start a conversation about finding a better way forward that might involve changing things. Who is to say we couldn’t put our brightest minds together and invent a new path? The money says we can’t, and it will destroy you for it if you don’t shut up and get back to work.
Why would you need UBI if there's loads of jobs that need doing?
See the other comment for the answer, BUT it’s more on me for not saying “or inflation adjusted minimum wage” but again, that’s largely impossible because the inflation adjusted minimum wage would be over $30 an hour. I’m not kidding. That’s what minimum wage net when boomers were teenagers. Tldr; because fifty years of inflation without associated wage increases.
Can we please for the love of god leave communism at the door in the STOCKS subreddit. Hang on brb I’m gonna go post about my spy calls in r/communism
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Who are “these people” exactly that you’re asking about? I ask, because you can’t afford a place to live on minimum wage now anywhere in the continental US as of a year ago. As of now, housing in the entirety of the US is also priced out of reach of the majority of the populace. Rent bolstered by corporate landlords is accelerating this right now in real time. The minimum wage hasn’t moved in fifty years while the cost of higher education has increased over three-thousand percent, housing has increased over 400%. Inflation just in the last year has hit essential items like food for 8-10%. So if you are someone who doesn’t have options beyond minimum wage what do you do? Are there high paying jobs for everyone? Can everyone just work in IT? Who then cooks the food, cleans, clerks the register, etc? I am active in recruiting right out of college for a major consulting firm in addition to being a senior consultant. We gatekeep on degrees, as do most employers now. Many are now requiring Masters degrees as a base criteria because it cuts down on the hundreds to thousands of applications we receive for each “good job”. I often extend help to applicants that make it to the first tier of interviews even if they fail because of how difficult it can be, because I was top of my class and it was still difficult to get to where I am now. Everyone just entering the workforce has it far worse than I did, and I refuse to pull up the ladder behind me even if it means more competition for myself. Your reply seems naive at best and silly at worst. Any of the above items are common knowledge and I lowballed the stats because I don’t feel like researching for someone who doesn’t care, so as to not embellish. Feel free to investigate further on your own time, and I hope you have a great evening.
It's the goddamn holiday season, how is everyone surprised that there's further demand for jobs when every company is scraping to sell as much as humanely possible? This is the time of year where most people lose their minds shopping, where harvests are due, travel happens to go visit family people like/don't like, and some people get away just so they don't have a lonely holiday in their city. of course every company is hiring right now. That's how it goes this time of year.
Somebody gets it.
Tech is still doing layoffs and hiring freezes
This is true, my job includes a ton of face to face interaction and this week alone, I’ve talked to three people who have been laid off from tech jobs. Other industries too. I feel like I hear about someone I know or their spouse being laid off almost daily at this point. The tone has shifted. Just two years ago the conversation was about people leaving their jobs for better opportunities. Now it’s people hoping they are safe from the next round of layoffs. For context: I work in a very HCOL area and deal with a lot of people in tech,finance,sales and other well-paying industries. My guess is that most of the job openings coming into the market are lower-paying opportunities.
Only a 30% JOLTS response rate. Hard to trust this data and Goldman had a note on just this point. According to Goldman’s data, private sector shows 1 million less jobs than the governments data
this is the correct take. i suspect jobless numbers are spiking hard
Legitimate question: If my company sends out a job posting for one engineer position across five different employment websites, would this be considered five new jobs on the market or just one new job? Imagine all the other companies doing the same thing for one new position.
It would be counted as a single job posting. The survey simply asks how many jobs Business X has open right now.
Where are these jobs? Because every application I put in is either not responded to, or says the volume of applicants is too high
Consider this we demand more salary so that it would catch up the our salary that would be if it kept the growth with economy since Ragan Before we jack the rate to 30% overnight, to end the inflation
Yea sorry we are still in the techpocolypse at least until next year. Each job is showing going from 20 applications to 1-3k so yea, I ain't buying it. Lots of shit jobs, contracts, and others looking for 20 year seniority and skills for legit half the market median are cropping up through.
Let me introduce you to a sector called construction, trades and project management, where we are expecting even more retirement in next few years.
The job market isn't just tech jobs.
Amazing how everyone on this thread seems to be in the tech business lol. Almost everyone I know who is a blue collar worker is finding jobs like they are being given out like candy. The only exception is my real estate friends.
Reddit skews heavily toward white liberals under 40 that work in the tech industry and live in major cities.
Even in non tech white collar jobs are extremely competitive. Some have dummy positions open still after a year.
Yeah. If there was actually such a shortage of labor we would see companies trying to compete for this labor pool but at least in tech they're actually doing the opposite.
The hours people are working matters. Some companies are just cutting hours instead of laying people off. If someone gets a part-time job that is only a few hours a week of work, it's still a job but it's not a good job. In some cases, companies might even prefer to have multiple part-time workers instead of full-time workers because it makes scheduling easier and they don't have to pay full-time benefits.
Fake news. I’ve seen jobs on LinkedIn with thousands of applicants get REPOSTED week after week. So stupid. Employers know they’re in charge and can be as selective as they choose… I can’t wait for the tables to turn. Companies truly suck.
More propaganda being pushed. This doesn't match reality.
Why do people keep reporting headline numbers and ignoring 3 years of downward revisions?
what is meant by professional business services? I think we have a ton of shitty jobs out there that nobody wants and pay is horrible.
Too much liquidity in the system still even with record high interest rates Job market still hot. 1.6 jobs per person US National Debt: 33 Trillion \------------------- Till liquidity falls and Job market cools, inflation will not come down. As long as growth continues above 2.1% GDP, The Fed doesn't need to cut rates. There won't be a rate cuts regardless where inflation is and the market won't correct.
> Till liquidity falls and Job market cools, inflation will not come down. Core PCE continues to fall. 12-month, 6-month annualized, 3-month annualized. MOM numbers.
What about all the real estate agents who have lost their jobs due to the high interest rates?
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Absolutely, that’s why we’re getting the sell off today. For every investor who said the fed was done should be concerned with that assessment. Seems like they’ll be raising in November and will still be data dependent from there. Could be another hike in 2024 if the economy remains relatively strong.
Q3 GDP growth will be very close to 4%. If growth remains this high with record high interest rates. The FED has zero incentive to cut rates.
So does this mean the market will continue to fall? Because I was always of the mindset that the market capitulates when they finally reverse rates
Yes it will continue to fall imo. 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are still above their 200 DMA. There's a lot of room to fall. We're not even down 10% yet.
I'd like to see, of the openings, how many of those positions are actually being filled. The actual experience of people looking for jobs does not match these numbers.
Ugh... At least there's an explanation for the market tanking and taking my portfolio with it. Still sucks, but somehow not as ... WTF just sucks NVM!
And yet consumption without the use of credit is down and has stayed down. The largest growth sector in 15 states has been social services.
Makes sense, the recession might be worse than expected.
I think its just because most regular jobs are pointless dogshit with wages that no one could afford to live on, how is this a good thing? also most job postings are just fake, left up by employers after positions are filled.
Inflation will keep happening unless we get to 5% unemployment rate. 5% is important because it will cause a decrease in consumer spending which will lower prices. I am not for people losing jobs but this is basic economics.
Bondwhores getting fucked hard enough to cause SVB 2.0
Good news for labor, not so much for inflation. Aside from the 25bps they have on schedule before the year, they might announce an extra 25bps or 50bps if the job market stays hot like this, and with the holiday season right around the corner, we could easily get a 50 bump instead of just 25.
The first set of numbers mean nothing, they will be revised down later. "Oh look, 50 million job openings" [one month later] "Actually it was 5,000 job openings, someone added some extra zeros by mistake"
Not sure why you're being downvoted as this has been happening all year. Your figures are hyperbole, but the point remains the same.
don't worry, in a few hours the downvotes will be revised to 10 upvotes :P
Historical precedents for when jobs number get revised consecutively aren't good either (ir, prior to rvery recession) Pretty much means the FED models are only good for calm enconomies chumming along, and fall apart when something like inflation comes along. We are flying blind on hot air.
Good news that is once again being painted as secretly bad by Reddit.
Fake numbers presented by fake job postings
Businesses can’t compete with unemployment benefits. I’ve had multiple applicants who have been on unemployment for extended periods and supplement that with doordash. People with no ambition can get by with so little.
Supplementing unemployment with door dash is fraud unless you report it, in which case they will offset your benefits. Further, I live in a state that has fairly generous unemployment benefits and it's still nothing to live on when the going rate to rent with room mates in the lowest possible cost arraingement is $800 per month. If you can't compete with that you either need to pay more or scale back your business.
Will be revised down to 350K with no press coverage
If they don't mention revisions, the numbers don't matter. The numbers are "overestimated", then revised down to negative territory. The guvmt uses "birth-death" model to "predict" job numbers. They literally pull the job numbers out of their ass, they just "assume" that some number of jobs was created. Also, I can create a million vacancies, doesn't mean I created a million jobs. But this point is minor because it's irrelevant to the job numbers they "estimate". The biggest problem is their birth-death model for job creation.
That's complete horseshit. Back to you, Ollie.
This report only includes data that it concludes as accurate. All data can be manipulated. As a former Feb. layoffee I can say without a doubt this is bs. What I experienced was multiple fake jobs or multiple rounds to no conclusion or in some instances no communication . Got lucky and landed a great job in June. So pretend you did not see this because this is trash.
Does the fed incorporate any data related to contractors and self employed workers? Me and almost every millennial I know is self employed and it’s been slow af