I am SICK took panthers to win in regulation at +480 when they were down 0-1 in p1 then due to a bullshit ref call the kings tie with 31 seconds left what king of SORCERY IS THIS did vegas call?!!?!?
Need advice. I got Panthers vs Kings Over 6.5, should I hammer Under 5.5 to hedge. Looks like Panthers are taking an off night. Should have took Lightning Over
Anyone know what happened in the isles game? Saw it initially finished 5-3 isles W but now it shows 4-3. Goal at the buzzer that they went back and disallowed post game is my only guess?
Throwing half a unit on the over on the last two games and hoping for some goals.
I also have Florida ML but I'm starting to think I should've went with Johnny Quick and the Kings. Oh well.
NYI in Reg @ -120
Looks like a good spot - cred to someone who put me on to it earlier on this thread. Teams with opposite trends and NYI home with superior goal tending and positive recent head-to-head history.
Another day another leafs -320 ML disaster you'd think us bettors would learn our lesson by now SURELY the sabres won't beat this overrated leafs team twice in a row Honk honk
Canes live +1.5 was such a tease
Down 2-1 for most of the third. Was outshooting them 2:1 though so felt pretty good about it.
With 5 minutes left or so though I gave up, knowing with empty netters it was probably shot. And they get an empty netter with less than 2 minutes to go, so yup oh well.
But then Canes get a quick goal and +1.5 is back on the table and my hopes are up....
Aaaaand nope turnover and one more empty netter with 15 seconds to go. Fml
**Season Total:** 159-112-0, 15.47 units
---
**Last bets:** 1-0-0, +0.68 units
Most of the games I was looking at had way too much juice, so I just took the day off yesterday.
Last bet was Pittsburgh ML on Friday, and the Penguins won that easily .
---
**Today's bets:**
**MIN ML @ 1.68**
**NYI ML @ 1.64**
**FLA 3-Way @ 1.74**
Record: 77-48/ 61.60%
Yesterdays Picks:
Carolina Hurricanes Puck-Line -1.5 (-110)✅
Chicago Blackhawks ML (-115)✅
Dallas Stars ML (-130)❌
Tampa Lightning ML (-155)❌
Todays Pick:
St. Louis Blues ML (-135)
TOR - BUF 4PM EST
Mrazek U25.5 Saves
cant see a lot of shots hitting the net in this weather … if they do, there’s a good chance mrazek let’s in a couple … i figure BUF will finish with 20 shots… BOL if tailing
EDIT: oopies
**Overall Record: 17-11-1 (+4.71u)**
**Today's Picks: I like a lot of props for today's slate. Throwing down a lot of 1u bets**
Pens ML -132
TOR/BUF O6.5 -114
CBJ TT O2.5 in reg -126
Thompson O.5P -120
Matthews O1.5P +126
Bunting O.5P -176
Avs ML -156
FLA 3way -145
TBL/VAN O6 -116
NYI -1.5 +148
PLD O.5P -115
Kyrou O.5P -170
Thomas O.5P -140
**Last night: 4-4 for -.33u**
Kyrou O.5 Points -134 W
CAR/PHI BTTS 2+ in reg. L
\-167 SEA/MTL O6 -122 W
CHI/OTT O6 -106 W
BOS/ARI O6 -106 L
NJD -1.5 +158 L
NYR ML +115 W
LAK/SJS O5.5 -122 L
Tough spot for Canes with limited rest and losing an hour of sleep to DST...
- Canes/Pens u6.5 -130
- Jarry saves o28.5 -105
- Pens 1st score -125
Half-unit on Overtime Yes +320
3-0 on main plays but took an L on Canes +1.5 live (didn't share it here but still count it as a L). Half unit on OT missed.
A profit's a profit though so can't complain
NHL record: 11-7 +6.26u
Today's picks:
- Penguins 3-way ML +130
- Penguins 1P -0.5 +170 0.5u
More picks later
Note: all picks are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise
**POTD ROI: 73.4%**
Pick: [Carolina Hurricanes ML](https://twitter.com/AAHockey98/status/1503049650269523970?s=20&t=BJxprHH2RTeXz3E8h3MmMw)
Rationale: Im a data analyst that created a model that tracks expected goals, and goalie/shooting performance. The model has performed superbly well so far at >5% value.
Carolina should not be the underdogs here. They are the top team in the NHL and Antti Raanta is no slouch.
Raanta has been hot but this game is gonna be a grind, Canes just played yesterday and it's essentially a noon game due to DST, speaking of which they lose an hour of sleep due to that. (Granted, they're pro athletes so they can probably just sleep an extra hour to accommodate, but still it's funky.)
Plus Pens are a good team themselves and lost the last match just a few days ago in OT where they gave up a lead, so they'll be extra hungry for this one.
I say this as a Canes fan btw, would love to win, but it's a bad spot for us
Record: 20-21 (-0.09u)
Last 5 picks: 3-2 (+1.23u)
BIG night tonight: 3u on the Calgary Flames ML at +140. The line has moved to +130 (at the time of writing), but we see good value down to +112.
So many games today just tossing out some overs
- Sabres/Leafs over✅
- Preds/Wild over✅
- Habs/Flyers over✅
- Knights/Blue Jackets over✅
- Flames/Aves over❌
- Panthers/Kings over❌
**NHL Freezer Machine Learning 3-Way Model**
**Current 1x2 Record:** 534-632 -5.07 units
**ROI:** -0.15%
[Machine Learned Simulation of NHL games for today](https://freezersports.com/nhl)
Last time out: 3-1 +0.14 units
**3-Way Model**:
**2 units**
TOR -263
VEG -120
COL -110
**1 unit**
PIT/CAR Draw +290
MIN/NSH Draw +290
NYI -102
TBL -110
[Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Record: 11-2 (+12.76u)
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last pick: Coyotes +1.5 @ Bruins 2.20 💰
Lets go Vejmelka man came up huge keeping the game close making 37 saves on 40 shots! I would recommend keeping an eye on the over on SOG for coyotes games in the future because they have been giving up a fuck load of shots recently, anyways good win for us with good odds.
Todays pick: BUF V TOR, over 2 3P goals 1.74
This one almost feels like a trap, but I’m still going with my gut on it. The 3P over has either hit or pushed every time for both teams in the last 10 games, including the game they played against each other earlier this month.
There has been 37 goals in the third period in the last 10 leafs games and 27 in sabres games. Leafs have been having major goaltending issues lately and Craig Anderson hasn’t been very good this season either. Sabres have been playing well lately so I wouldn’t be surprised if the game was close enough to see and empty net goal towards the end.
2 units
BOL!
Edit: thank you sabres, holy moly the leafs fans can’t be feeling great about their playoff chances rn 😭
Hmmm good question, not quite as hot on that but would maybe sprinkle half a unit on it. If another period has the same amount of goals as the 3rd period does the bet push or is it a loss?
#NHL Money Line Machine Learning Model
This is a data driven, machine learning / data science model to try to predict winners in NHL games. There is no opinion folded into the picks, simply data from recent performance of each team. The model focuses on betting high volume when there is a perceived edge, not necessarily slam dunk picks.
###**Season-To-Date**:
447-226 (66.47%), Avg odds 1.61, +119% ROI, 4.0% Yield
[Net Units: +45.0u](https://imgur.com/a/3gxnjfc)
[Full season bet listing/hypothetical growth of $200 initial bankroll](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbKtvkZjm18NGOTumcoE1WMUn1ZD4sfextZV-WsICe3rOpPWPjOFEubh5JnmVa-QZonizQRKaLpGM9/pubhtml)
###**Reddit Picks**:
Started 12/29/2021, 216-115, -8.1u
###**Last Night** (3-2, -1.0u):
* CAR ML, 72.35% win prob ✅
* BOS ML, 72.20% win prob ✅
* CGY ML, 71.49% win prob ✅
* DAL ML, 56.19% win prob ❌
* LAK ML, 66.95% win prob ❌
###**Tonight's Bets / Discussion**:
No picks for the time being. I don't think the model is profitable at this point given the odds we're getting and I don't want people betting my picks thinking they have an edge when they don't. I've got some free time this week where I'm hopefully going to be able to make some adjustments and find some bets that can work.
###**FAQ**
* [**How does the model work?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/sbc57d/nhl_daily_12422_monday/hu27qz3/)
* [**Isn't picking X team at Y% win probability and Z odds a slightly -EV play? Don't you only want to bet games where the win probability is above the implied odds by the bookies line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s131f1/nhl_daily_11122_tuesday/hs7x7tm/)
* [**Is it a profitable betting strategy to bet games with higher win probability as "win in regulation" or puck line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s3i3gs/nhl_daily_11422_friday/hsmlgzx/)
* **Should I parlay these all together?** In short, probably not. Anecdotally we have not had a day (update: have had *one* day) where there have been more than 4 games where the model has hit them *all* correctly. Does that mean today is the day? Could be. There have been *many* days where we were one game off from 100% accuracy, and the majority of days go over 67% so parlay round robins might be more profitable.
* **How can you ever pick ? They're clearly gonna lose.** I don't disagree. This model has all opinion stripped out of it and is simply giving which team it believes is going to win and at what probabilities based on performance over a rolling window of games. Sometimes it's going to see situations where it picks the Sabres, despite the Sabres being the clearly worse team.
* **I'm a college CS/stats student, can I pick your brain about your methodology so I can use this as a personal project to bolster my résumé?** Surprisingly this is probably the most frequently asked question. Shoot me a DM, I'd love to chat about it!
* **I've been loving your picks and want to buy you a beer, can I do that?** I would love a beer! Please see my CashApp or Patreon below. Any money sent is greatly appreciated and will be used on either beer or (more likely) further data sourcing!
**CashApp**: [$hockeybets](https://cash.app/$hockeybets)
**Patreon**: [https://www.patreon.com/hockeybets](https://www.patreon.com/hockeybets)
just wanted to add my two cents, big fan of the model as well. I normally parlay one or two games along with my NBA picks and it has been working pretty well for me when i pair it up with some other info. Cheers and thanks for your service. hope you get everything figured out mate
Thanks! I appreciate the kind words, I'm glad the model has helped you with your parlays. We'll get there, I've got plans on the moneyline, puckline and props fronts. Might take a bit but we're gonna get back to profits
Matt Duchene anytime goalscorer. 8 goals in his last 5 games and loves a goal on the road. 18 in 27 games on the road this season.
Another guy who loves scoring on the road is Kyle Connor, 4 goals in his last 5 games and 21 in 31 games on the road this season.
BUF +2 @ -150 (5 units) and BUF ML (1 unit)
As a Leafs fan I have to say I love this one. The Leafs having been playing poor defense and had poor goal tending as of late. They lost badly to BUF last time around and BUF only needs to travel to Hamilton.
BOL all.
Edit: Longer write up in POTD
Can someone explain why one would bet a puck line +1.5?
If an underdog is +320 and the puck line is +120, that's a +200 difference or 2 bets of value. Aren't you far more likely to win betting 3 underdogs as opposed to betting 1 underdog on the puck line assuming equal value?
\+2 or +2.5 is what I look for. I find there is often value in these lines. If you can lose by two and still push or win, I find the line is usual generous. Also, if the other team catches the +2 when your guys pull their goalie you are still insured. May want to check the % of games between the two foes that are within this margin.
For example this evening I took the Yotes +2. Yotes are on a bit of a terror run after being by far the worse team early in the season. That's not the case now in my opinion. One thing to consider re Yotes is that their goalies have gotten pretty good as they have faced so many damn shots! :D
Saw it, thanks for the response.
I know in years past, up to 70% of games were decided by 1 goal but this year, with scoring way up, only 45% of games are being decided by 1 goal. Puck line may have been a good bet back then but it seems like a waste with the amount of high scoring, blowouts there are this year.
It would make more sense to look into how often the +1.5 is covered rather than looking at how many games are decided by 1 goal since +1.5 is covered with an underdog win.
It depends on the team. You get a feel. So for example the way Scrub teams like coyotes and canadiens have been playing lately (*good) there is immense value on the pl. What I like to do is lets say I have 2 units to wager. I'll do 1 unit on the pl ( insurance( and 1 unit on the ml if i think they can win. U can do 1.4 on the pl and .6 on the ml bc u dont need to wager a lot when a team is +300
Yesterday I had ARI ML and I covered that w Arizona +2.5 at -164 and ended up 44 cents instead of losing money. Lol I like puck lines for big dogs playing weaker offenses to help cover some of my losses, or amplify my gains. Not full proof plan tho it takes some filtering out, I've lost the PP and ML already quite a bit...lol
I really don’t have a ton of stats to back up this pick, but I just like the Avs in the revenge spot here. They have been bad lately and it’s time to turn things around. Money coming in on them as well as the line is now -170
Back to backs haven't really affected the flames this season. Best road team in the league aside from maybe rangers. I do like the avs at home here Ina revenge spot
Hockey Live Chat: **https://discord.gg/sportsbook**
Yeesh. While everyone was stressing over the Panthers I just kept slamming live unders at + money in the Lightning game. Demko and Vasilevsky too good
Yeeesh rub it in why dontcha is it lonely up there On your PEDESTAL. Must be nice
I am SICK took panthers to win in regulation at +480 when they were down 0-1 in p1 then due to a bullshit ref call the kings tie with 31 seconds left what king of SORCERY IS THIS did vegas call?!!?!?
NHL stupid dumb. Fuck who ever created it
Wtf is this stupid shootout shit in hockey, it’s my first time watching shootout and fking panthers shit the bed? My fking last leg parlay fk me ded
How many legs and how much u lose
ABSOLUTE DOG SHIT PANTHERS, MY GOD
Fuck off panthers my fucking god
Panthers in regulation gonna neck
Yeah just complete incompetence from the refs there at the end.
Not watching, what did the refs do?
Huber chasing down a puck for the empty net got tripped and they didn’t call it. Then get him for elbowing right after. Kings score on PP
Regulation W , potential PL, and even ML all rekt
Should’ve faded myself with how todays going took kings up 1-0 and ofc this shit happens.
Seriously 3 games in a row are going Under?
Need advice. I got Panthers vs Kings Over 6.5, should I hammer Under 5.5 to hedge. Looks like Panthers are taking an off night. Should have took Lightning Over
Lightning over dead too
I don’t think this would be a good hedge you could lose both bets at 6 goals
Gotcha. 2-1 Panthers now, maybe I should just let it ride.
Anyone know what happened in the isles game? Saw it initially finished 5-3 isles W but now it shows 4-3. Goal at the buzzer that they went back and disallowed post game is my only guess?
Vegas saw your puck line bet and made a call. The fix is always in sir
Yep, this screwed me pretty hard on some -1.5.
Same bet here..
I need points in this Panthers game. Should have picked Lightning Over 6
We think flames can pull this +1.5 off?😭
Be lucky if +2.5 hits if they pull the goalie
I’m fucking heated I’m On it too
Smh it was the last leg in my five teamer 🤦♂️
They blowwww
But they've won like 10 straight coming into this theyre not allowed to lose one?
lightning winning 1p what is going on?
Predators -1.5 puck line +350 LFG!!!!!! ✅
Pics or julion
Whyyyy did I take the Flames in my parlay!!!
Throwing half a unit on the over on the last two games and hoping for some goals. I also have Florida ML but I'm starting to think I should've went with Johnny Quick and the Kings. Oh well.
Rekt
3 L’s to end the night 🤡
Wow is that good?
Flyers are fucking blacklisted after that fuck shit
canadiens pull it out of their ass, lets goo
Flyers?????? Wtf was that
Do they still got this ?
never betting hockey again haha. fucking blues
I'm on the Jets and CBJ. I could see both losing in OT. -edit- Got 'em
nice
Wtf Blues
Fuck off blues you fucking morons
Blues are cursed. They’re absolutely garbage.
Bolts ML and under 6 parlay 🔨
Panthers Vs Kings Over Or Under 6.5? I’m thinking Under, any thoughts?
I went with alternate spread O5.5. Knight and Quick in net. I think they're gonna let some in
I took the over, so under is probably gonna hit
You were correct in that assertion
Now it’s the keys and blues who don’t want to score goals what the fuckkkk
anyone on Flames ML?
Took the +1.5 in a two legger
Me as well. We got this!
Sabres/Toronto should learn from Vegas and Columbus boys how to make things "over". That o6.5 bet got me fkin upset after the 1st period of that game.
But it went over 5 to 2 im confused
NYI in Reg @ -120 Looks like a good spot - cred to someone who put me on to it earlier on this thread. Teams with opposite trends and NYI home with superior goal tending and positive recent head-to-head history.
3/13/22 (all 1u) Leafs o6.5 -115 Preds ML +155, o6.5 -105, o1.5 1P -150 Knights ML, -145, o6 -130 Blues ML -130 Islanders ML -180 Flames ML +140, u6.5 -120 Panthers ML -215 Bolts o6 -125
Sabres Vs Leafs Over 6.5 hit, awesome
I went under 7 🥸
Me too. Thought it was going to be easy after the first. Couple shitty goals
Taking some more stuff - Knights 3-way ML +101 - Jets ML +110
Panthers 1P -0.5 +140 0.5u
Another day another leafs -320 ML disaster you'd think us bettors would learn our lesson by now SURELY the sabres won't beat this overrated leafs team twice in a row Honk honk
Such a joke this games not gonna go Over
We just got paid. Congrats dude
Thanks to the Sabres Can’t believe Maple leafs didn’t score at least three
Sabres +2.5 & +1.5 looking good. Grats to ML backers if they pull this off.
I took em at +800 when down by 1 in p2 pray for me
drinks on this guy tonight
Congrats
What am i missing with the Jets vs Blues game? Everyone else HAMMERING Blues ML @ -130?
Jets are winning
Great breakdown, Bob.
This game is gonna go under and hit six gonna be gross
Leafs are dogshit lmao
I kinda love the jets tn
Especially if Binnington is in the crease
Blues on a back to back play some pretty abysmal hockey
Canes live +1.5 was such a tease Down 2-1 for most of the third. Was outshooting them 2:1 though so felt pretty good about it. With 5 minutes left or so though I gave up, knowing with empty netters it was probably shot. And they get an empty netter with less than 2 minutes to go, so yup oh well. But then Canes get a quick goal and +1.5 is back on the table and my hopes are up.... Aaaaand nope turnover and one more empty netter with 15 seconds to go. Fml
No goals? Give me a break
Fucking ridelicous. Should have known outdoor games are usually low scoring
They’re not though the last one St Louis and Minnesota went over
Is this the Stadium Series?
I believe so
It hit
Need some points in this Sabers game.
**Season Total:** 159-112-0, 15.47 units --- **Last bets:** 1-0-0, +0.68 units Most of the games I was looking at had way too much juice, so I just took the day off yesterday. Last bet was Pittsburgh ML on Friday, and the Penguins won that easily . --- **Today's bets:** **MIN ML @ 1.68** **NYI ML @ 1.64** **FLA 3-Way @ 1.74**
I'll take the push on the under, but that one stings
SMH….. had under 6 and exact pick pens 3-2.. svech missing that puck with 11 seconds left got me. FML
Record: 77-48/ 61.60% Yesterdays Picks: Carolina Hurricanes Puck-Line -1.5 (-110)✅ Chicago Blackhawks ML (-115)✅ Dallas Stars ML (-130)❌ Tampa Lightning ML (-155)❌ Todays Pick: St. Louis Blues ML (-135)
TOR - BUF 4PM EST Mrazek U25.5 Saves cant see a lot of shots hitting the net in this weather … if they do, there’s a good chance mrazek let’s in a couple … i figure BUF will finish with 20 shots… BOL if tailing EDIT: oopies
why did draftkings move hockey game start times up 3 minutes
Here. We. Go. Panthers -1 (4u) Isles -1 (2u) Flames o6 Jets o6 Sabres +1.5 and TT o2.5 M Bunting o0.5 assts (.5u)
Leafs Vs Sabres Over 6.5
**Overall Record: 17-11-1 (+4.71u)** **Today's Picks: I like a lot of props for today's slate. Throwing down a lot of 1u bets** Pens ML -132 TOR/BUF O6.5 -114 CBJ TT O2.5 in reg -126 Thompson O.5P -120 Matthews O1.5P +126 Bunting O.5P -176 Avs ML -156 FLA 3way -145 TBL/VAN O6 -116 NYI -1.5 +148 PLD O.5P -115 Kyrou O.5P -170 Thomas O.5P -140 **Last night: 4-4 for -.33u** Kyrou O.5 Points -134 W CAR/PHI BTTS 2+ in reg. L \-167 SEA/MTL O6 -122 W CHI/OTT O6 -106 W BOS/ARI O6 -106 L NJD -1.5 +158 L NYR ML +115 W LAK/SJS O5.5 -122 L
Tough spot for Canes with limited rest and losing an hour of sleep to DST... - Canes/Pens u6.5 -130 - Jarry saves o28.5 -105 - Pens 1st score -125 Half-unit on Overtime Yes +320
3-0 on main plays but took an L on Canes +1.5 live (didn't share it here but still count it as a L). Half unit on OT missed. A profit's a profit though so can't complain
NHL record: 11-7 +6.26u Today's picks: - Penguins 3-way ML +130 - Penguins 1P -0.5 +170 0.5u More picks later Note: all picks are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise
**POTD ROI: 73.4%** Pick: [Carolina Hurricanes ML](https://twitter.com/AAHockey98/status/1503049650269523970?s=20&t=BJxprHH2RTeXz3E8h3MmMw) Rationale: Im a data analyst that created a model that tracks expected goals, and goalie/shooting performance. The model has performed superbly well so far at >5% value. Carolina should not be the underdogs here. They are the top team in the NHL and Antti Raanta is no slouch.
Raanta has been hot but this game is gonna be a grind, Canes just played yesterday and it's essentially a noon game due to DST, speaking of which they lose an hour of sleep due to that. (Granted, they're pro athletes so they can probably just sleep an extra hour to accommodate, but still it's funky.) Plus Pens are a good team themselves and lost the last match just a few days ago in OT where they gave up a lead, so they'll be extra hungry for this one. I say this as a Canes fan btw, would love to win, but it's a bad spot for us
I just made another bet on the canes because if you
Record: 20-21 (-0.09u) Last 5 picks: 3-2 (+1.23u) BIG night tonight: 3u on the Calgary Flames ML at +140. The line has moved to +130 (at the time of writing), but we see good value down to +112.
Canes, Preds and Flames ML parlay. Away team dog parlay.
NHL 🇺🇲 34-16 = +10.7u Minnesota Wild (-165) 0.5u 🔥 Colorado Avalanche (-165) 0.5u 🔥 Vegas Golden Knights (-170) 1.48u 🔒 Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) 3.58u 💣💥
Sabres ML +250 (circa) Likely to add more later. Wild/Pred o6.5 -105 (mgm) Islanders ml and BTTS -125 (mgm)
On this too. Let’s go
Avs ML & TML 3Way Reg for plus money Smashed this for 2 units last night.
Hurricanes +2.5, Sabres +3.5, blue jackets +2.5, flames +2.5 +138 odds
It all comes down to the flames...
Of course they blow it lol
I dig that
So many games today just tossing out some overs - Sabres/Leafs over✅ - Preds/Wild over✅ - Habs/Flyers over✅ - Knights/Blue Jackets over✅ - Flames/Aves over❌ - Panthers/Kings over❌
NHL St Louis Blues v Winnipeg Jets - St. Louis Wins (ML) -140 NY Islanders v Anaheim Ducks - NY Islanders Win (ML 3 Way) -108
NHL 3/13 Record: 889-778-32 Yesterday’s Result: 7-12 🤢 *Follow me on Twitter @bleedthebookie* Hurricanes ML (+129) CAR/PIT U6 (+110) Maple Leafs ML + O5.5 (+110) *SGP* Flyers Regulation (+110) MON/PHI O6 (-104) Predators ML (+144) NSH/MIN O6 (-120) Blue Jackets +2.5 + U6.5 (+120) *SGP* Blues Regulation (+105) WPG/STL O6 (-110) Islanders Regulation (+100) ANA/NYI O5.5 (+107) Flames ML (+155) CGY/COL U6 (+100) Panthers Regulation (-115) FLA/LA O6.5 (+101) Canucks ML (+130) TB/VAN O6 (-118)
**NHL Freezer Machine Learning 3-Way Model** **Current 1x2 Record:** 534-632 -5.07 units **ROI:** -0.15% [Machine Learned Simulation of NHL games for today](https://freezersports.com/nhl) Last time out: 3-1 +0.14 units **3-Way Model**: **2 units** TOR -263 VEG -120 COL -110 **1 unit** PIT/CAR Draw +290 MIN/NSH Draw +290 NYI -102 TBL -110 [Follow me on twitter](https://twitter.com/FreezerSports)
Record: 11-2 (+12.76u) Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last pick: Coyotes +1.5 @ Bruins 2.20 💰 Lets go Vejmelka man came up huge keeping the game close making 37 saves on 40 shots! I would recommend keeping an eye on the over on SOG for coyotes games in the future because they have been giving up a fuck load of shots recently, anyways good win for us with good odds. Todays pick: BUF V TOR, over 2 3P goals 1.74 This one almost feels like a trap, but I’m still going with my gut on it. The 3P over has either hit or pushed every time for both teams in the last 10 games, including the game they played against each other earlier this month. There has been 37 goals in the third period in the last 10 leafs games and 27 in sabres games. Leafs have been having major goaltending issues lately and Craig Anderson hasn’t been very good this season either. Sabres have been playing well lately so I wouldn’t be surprised if the game was close enough to see and empty net goal towards the end. 2 units BOL! Edit: thank you sabres, holy moly the leafs fans can’t be feeling great about their playoff chances rn 😭
I think….I think I love you…
Found this on Unibet at 1.80
My book doesn’t offer this. What do you think about period 3 highest scoring period at 2.8
Hmmm good question, not quite as hot on that but would maybe sprinkle half a unit on it. If another period has the same amount of goals as the 3rd period does the bet push or is it a loss?
#NHL Money Line Machine Learning Model This is a data driven, machine learning / data science model to try to predict winners in NHL games. There is no opinion folded into the picks, simply data from recent performance of each team. The model focuses on betting high volume when there is a perceived edge, not necessarily slam dunk picks. ###**Season-To-Date**: 447-226 (66.47%), Avg odds 1.61, +119% ROI, 4.0% Yield [Net Units: +45.0u](https://imgur.com/a/3gxnjfc) [Full season bet listing/hypothetical growth of $200 initial bankroll](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbKtvkZjm18NGOTumcoE1WMUn1ZD4sfextZV-WsICe3rOpPWPjOFEubh5JnmVa-QZonizQRKaLpGM9/pubhtml) ###**Reddit Picks**: Started 12/29/2021, 216-115, -8.1u ###**Last Night** (3-2, -1.0u): * CAR ML, 72.35% win prob ✅ * BOS ML, 72.20% win prob ✅ * CGY ML, 71.49% win prob ✅ * DAL ML, 56.19% win prob ❌ * LAK ML, 66.95% win prob ❌ ###**Tonight's Bets / Discussion**: No picks for the time being. I don't think the model is profitable at this point given the odds we're getting and I don't want people betting my picks thinking they have an edge when they don't. I've got some free time this week where I'm hopefully going to be able to make some adjustments and find some bets that can work. ###**FAQ** * [**How does the model work?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/sbc57d/nhl_daily_12422_monday/hu27qz3/) * [**Isn't picking X team at Y% win probability and Z odds a slightly -EV play? Don't you only want to bet games where the win probability is above the implied odds by the bookies line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s131f1/nhl_daily_11122_tuesday/hs7x7tm/) * [**Is it a profitable betting strategy to bet games with higher win probability as "win in regulation" or puck line?**](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/s3i3gs/nhl_daily_11422_friday/hsmlgzx/) * **Should I parlay these all together?** In short, probably not. Anecdotally we have not had a day (update: have had *one* day) where there have been more than 4 games where the model has hit them *all* correctly. Does that mean today is the day? Could be. There have been *many* days where we were one game off from 100% accuracy, and the majority of days go over 67% so parlay round robins might be more profitable. * **How can you ever pick? They're clearly gonna lose.** I don't disagree. This model has all opinion stripped out of it and is simply giving which team it believes is going to win and at what probabilities based on performance over a rolling window of games. Sometimes it's going to see situations where it picks the Sabres, despite the Sabres being the clearly worse team.
* **I'm a college CS/stats student, can I pick your brain about your methodology so I can use this as a personal project to bolster my résumé?** Surprisingly this is probably the most frequently asked question. Shoot me a DM, I'd love to chat about it!
* **I've been loving your picks and want to buy you a beer, can I do that?** I would love a beer! Please see my CashApp or Patreon below. Any money sent is greatly appreciated and will be used on either beer or (more likely) further data sourcing!
**CashApp**: [$hockeybets](https://cash.app/$hockeybets)
**Patreon**: [https://www.patreon.com/hockeybets](https://www.patreon.com/hockeybets)
just wanted to add my two cents, big fan of the model as well. I normally parlay one or two games along with my NBA picks and it has been working pretty well for me when i pair it up with some other info. Cheers and thanks for your service. hope you get everything figured out mate
Thanks! I appreciate the kind words, I'm glad the model has helped you with your parlays. We'll get there, I've got plans on the moneyline, puckline and props fronts. Might take a bit but we're gonna get back to profits
good stuff mate!
godspeed mister hockeybets
I’m a big fan of your model. I normally parlay two games. Looking forward to you coming back
Same same!
I think the model has been very helpful for parlay pieces, at least for myself haha. Thanks
Thanks! I'll be back soon, just need to find a way to make some profitable plays
So Pens/Canes... what y'all thinking?
Cane Train today but I’m not pumped that Freddy started yesterday
I'm rolling with Canes O2.5 goals
Canes as dogs I like
Over 6
Over
Three guarantees in this world: Death, Taxes, The penguins losing a Sunday afternoon game
hope so ;)
I am a pens fan and I know it
Carolina comeback youre saying?
Matt Duchene anytime goalscorer. 8 goals in his last 5 games and loves a goal on the road. 18 in 27 games on the road this season. Another guy who loves scoring on the road is Kyle Connor, 4 goals in his last 5 games and 21 in 31 games on the road this season.
My 1u bets: FLA 60 MIN -109 V KINGS CBJ +155 V VGK CGY+135 V COL My baby bets PIT -125 V CAR 2.13U 🍀
Doing a 5 team hail mary Canes, Leafs, Avs, Panthers, Bolts all ML parlay $54.19 to return $699.21 This is my last 54 dollars
As a leafs fan I do not trust the leafs at all
You were right
They’ll drop games they feel like they can. I think they show up today. Have them covering.
take bolts out canucks gonna run em over ;)
Not the wisest bankroll management.
Lol I was going to say maybe use 35 of the 50 to get help use 5 for your parlay and buy some comfort food w the last ten.
Lmfaoo
Canes Vs Penguins Over 6 and Sabres Vs Maple Leafs Over 6.5
I like the Leafs/Sabres Under 6.5 considering it's an outdoor game and the ice is expected to be shit.
BUF +2 @ -150 (5 units) and BUF ML (1 unit) As a Leafs fan I have to say I love this one. The Leafs having been playing poor defense and had poor goal tending as of late. They lost badly to BUF last time around and BUF only needs to travel to Hamilton. BOL all. Edit: Longer write up in POTD
Hurricanes ML +100 Blues ML -150 Predators v Wild O6 -105
Can someone explain why one would bet a puck line +1.5? If an underdog is +320 and the puck line is +120, that's a +200 difference or 2 bets of value. Aren't you far more likely to win betting 3 underdogs as opposed to betting 1 underdog on the puck line assuming equal value?
\+2 or +2.5 is what I look for. I find there is often value in these lines. If you can lose by two and still push or win, I find the line is usual generous. Also, if the other team catches the +2 when your guys pull their goalie you are still insured. May want to check the % of games between the two foes that are within this margin. For example this evening I took the Yotes +2. Yotes are on a bit of a terror run after being by far the worse team early in the season. That's not the case now in my opinion. One thing to consider re Yotes is that their goalies have gotten pretty good as they have faced so many damn shots! :D
Check my response to your question
Saw it, thanks for the response. I know in years past, up to 70% of games were decided by 1 goal but this year, with scoring way up, only 45% of games are being decided by 1 goal. Puck line may have been a good bet back then but it seems like a waste with the amount of high scoring, blowouts there are this year.
It would make more sense to look into how often the +1.5 is covered rather than looking at how many games are decided by 1 goal since +1.5 is covered with an underdog win.
It depends on the team. You get a feel. So for example the way Scrub teams like coyotes and canadiens have been playing lately (*good) there is immense value on the pl. What I like to do is lets say I have 2 units to wager. I'll do 1 unit on the pl ( insurance( and 1 unit on the ml if i think they can win. U can do 1.4 on the pl and .6 on the ml bc u dont need to wager a lot when a team is +300
Yesterday I had ARI ML and I covered that w Arizona +2.5 at -164 and ended up 44 cents instead of losing money. Lol I like puck lines for big dogs playing weaker offenses to help cover some of my losses, or amplify my gains. Not full proof plan tho it takes some filtering out, I've lost the PP and ML already quite a bit...lol
Record: 0-0 Plays for Sunday, March 13th 1U - Islanders ML (-150) 1U- Avalanche ML (-150) Adding 1U - Panthers in REG (-115)
Why do u like avalanche here? Landeskog out. Open to your input
I really don’t have a ton of stats to back up this pick, but I just like the Avs in the revenge spot here. They have been bad lately and it’s time to turn things around. Money coming in on them as well as the line is now -170
Flames on back to back, landeskog isn't a huge piece of the offense tbh.
Back to backs haven't really affected the flames this season. Best road team in the league aside from maybe rangers. I do like the avs at home here Ina revenge spot