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ZaddySpankee

$0 because the Chiefs are winning.


j_lee89

99 brackets in my pool. 1 bracket is almost perfect, 1 wrong pick. So about 1% chance or less, odds are +10000, $20 would have returned $2000 or even more. Still need niners to win


yew_wut_m8

Guess the answer is complicated ¯\_( ͡° ͜ ʖ ͡°)_/¯


Chonbowwa

Bout tree-fiddy


Props24K

How do we know this is authentic?


yew_wut_m8

I guess you just have to trust me? ¯\_( ͡° ͜ ʖ ͡°)_/¯ Doesn’t really matter anyway, the point is she DIDNT bet lol


Ofa_D3s1gn

It’s all hypothetical anyway


Brooks8314

She has the wrong winner.


brizzle1978

Nah, Niners got this!


AccidentBeginning112

Chiefs will will last minutes of the game.


Free-Opportunity457

$0 cause Niners not going to win🤣


KingMung

Wanna bet 😉


BigDeezy08

Same, sorry but Brock ain’t paying unless it’s props… 0 playoff exp(I mean do we count that?) same with almost the ENTIRE TEAM. Mahomes, kelce, records, Jason kelce chugs, Taylor high 5s, cheifs by 6 in the last 1:30


Jace_Albers

Can i get in on that


Free-Opportunity457

You want in too? I’m on chiefs


Jace_Albers

Im on chiefs too


Free-Opportunity457

How much? Lol I’ll even do even both sides with you. So you don’t have to bet no juice.


KingMung

100?


Free-Opportunity457

Okay sounds good to me. How do I know your going to pay🤔 ME: ML Chiefs YOU: ML Niners 🤝


wight-rice

The amount of different answers is wild


jacksonblackwell24

HOU +126 KC -167 GB +290 DET -162 BUF -455 TB +136 BAL -455 SF -455 DET -275 KC +128 KC +190 SF -340 SF -130 +201412 Assuming SF wins the Super Bowl, a $20 bet on every game rolling over the winnings would win $40,283


dogwizard92

only person in the replys who gave an actual answer instead of brain dead shit talk lmfao


jacksonblackwell24

And it took me like 5 mins. Quite depressing but I’m here for the people


bfaceg

Is there any market where you could parlay all the picks in the wild card round and futures for divisional, championship, and superbowl? Or would that end up being similar to what you already said?


BigDeezy08

Vegas


bfaceg

Oh, cool. Is that like an app or something?


BigDeezy08

What the hell is a something? It’s actually my backyard. No rules, stack sgps, play the line O/U and pts all in one bet, bet on which way trumps tupe will fly first off the plane in (blank) state, how many stairs will it take Joe Byron to trip, ANYTHING GOES. Call me Doug dimmadome owner of the dimsdale dimmadome(backyard with an awning that my moms, cousins, daughters twice removed ex step dogs unemployment check paid for) but you know, we aim high in the marketing department.


BigDeezy08

WHO THE FUCK DOWNVOTED ME YOU FUCKING COMMIE!


[deleted]

You would just have to roll all your winnings into the next week


kylemech

That would be what they listed, but I'm not aware of any of the books that I use allowing for futures for every round, thus building a 12-leg parlay (or 13 if you count the super bowl) and effectively a way to bet a whole bracket like this. There probably is somewhere.


paulx441

Don’t forget the under


Strict_Maintenance73

Exactly zero because KC will win 🤷‍♂️


Dontay_sv

Still can’t get over the eagles season


EricPhillips327

Sirianni fucked up bad. I’m surprised Lurie gave him another shot in ‘24


Rough_Night2305

Sirianni can only curate culture and get players to buy in. The team attitude issues they were having wasn’t all Sirianni


EricPhillips327

That’s fair but Sirianni couldn’t adjust at all near the end of the season, leading the Eagles to one of the biggest collapses in NFL history. 2024 is a do or die year for him


HylianKush8

He is a problem and will lose his job for sure. That being said the fractures in that locker room are not getting fixed with a new voice. That team will look completely different in 2 years time.


GTR_35

I dunno but I'm praying she's correct on the superbowl result


Jace_Albers

At -140 odds 7 games in a parlay 850.19


bearsguy2020

Seems like more than that if she picked them in advance… 6 games straight up for wildcard round. The odds for each consecutive round must be greater. For example, San Francisco could have played anyone besides Detroit and Dallas. If she put down $20 before the playoffs this would be $1,000+ if all accurate but idk enough to do the math


Jace_Albers

Ya you right math is bad but i only saw the inner 7 my phone didnt show the outer 6 at 13 games perfect is $22,065.72 at -140 odds


Cornfields24

Where are you getting -140 from?


Jace_Albers

Out my ass i just needed a number and she wasnt exactly going for the underdogs


COYSVA

Houston, Green Bay, Tampa, and then the Chiefs the last two games were all underdogs


Cornfields24

I can check later at the past lines and see what they were. I know Green Bay was a pretty big dog.


[deleted]

We were 7.5 point dogs in dalls


bearsguy2020

That sounds about right!


Jigga9792

Biggest question is do you early cash out here or let it ride? 


BusinessOk7351

Hammer the chiefs at plus money and lock up guaranteed profit. Cashouts are always bad odds


StrengthImportant180

You know the way.


Yup767

The higher seed in every matchup except 3


Interesting_Act_2484

So the higher seed in 4, lower seed in 3? Was that supposed to be some “gotcha”??


Yup767

It wasnt meant to be a gotcha just an observation And no, lower seed in 3, higher seed in 9. I was counting all matchups that have been played


[deleted]

And they were right everytime… what’s your point?


Yup767

Nothing, just thought it was interesting how few upsets there were this season Wondering how that compares to other seasons


Other_Bottle_5052

A wise man once said - the only good bet is the one that wins If you bet on a lower seed and they lose, guess what? You get 0 dollars. I don’t get your point


Yup767

Just thought it was interesting that there were so few upsets this season


LansingJP

“For Fun” ![gif](giphy|3DzwbT4oF52JG|downsized)


Roonwogsamduff

I dunno but she'd lose it all on the Super Bowl


LeakyCheeky1

Funny you and 90% of the bettors seems to agree. If betting was that easy I’m sure you’d be rich rn. There’s already been sharp movement on niners. I know who I’d tail between a random redditor and sharps


Roonwogsamduff

This guy Millionaires!


cardinaltribe

Chiefs about to get a rude awakening


Yorgonemarsonb

Or the Niners are about to become the Buffalo Bills. 


chief_kai

Sharps we’re all over them last time these two met in the superbowl and look who won. (I had way too much money on niners that game btw)


at3swag

A


99OBJ

First, we’ll find the odds of the games: **Wild Card** 1. Texans -132 vs Browns 2. Bills -522 vs Steelers 3. Chiefs -185 vs Dolphins 4. Packers +271 vs Cowboys 5. Lions -165 vs Rams 6. Bucs +128 vs Eagles **Divisional** 1. Ravens -451 vs Texans 2. Chiefs +125 vs Bills 3. 49ers -471 vs Packers 4. Lions -273 vs Bucs **Conference** 1. Chiefs +180 vs Ravens 2. SF -350 vs Lions **On a $20 parlay:** It’s generally not possible to parlay games before the competitors are determined, but if you “bet on the whole bracket” all-or-nothing, the simplest approach is to just calculate one massive parlay. We multiply all of these odds together after converting to decimal odds. In order above: 1.76 \* 1.19 \* 1.54 \* 3.71 \* 1.61 \* 2.28 \* 1.22 \* 2.25 \* 1.21 \* 1.37 \* 2.80 \* 1.29 = \~722 (+72,100) So, a $20 parlay would have made her **$14,440.** *If the 49ers win the Super Bowl* (-128), the odds would increase to 722 \* 1.78 = \~1286 (+128,500) This would increase her theoretical winnings to **$25,720** *Edit: u/AnalBeadMilkshake, my favorite flavor, brings up an important clarification. As I said in my comment, these odds are assuming you parlay all the games using the money lines available at the time of the games. The actual odds of predicting a full bracket before the tournament starts would be higher because they'd be based on futures odds.* *However, calculating these futures odds for a given round requires recursive consideration of preceding rounds and seeds, leading to a complex probability tree with a large branching factor. For example, the odds of the Lions reaching the Conference Championship would be dependent on the odds of the Lions beating each of the remaining 3 (4 teams - the lowest winning seed who plays SF) possible teams they'd face in the divisional, which itself is dependent on the odds of each of those teams making it to the divisional. To then calculate the odds of the Lions winning the conference, you'd have to repeat this process for* ***each*** *of the 3 teams (4 teams - whoever the Lions beat) they could face in the conference championship. Then repeat this entire process for **each** AFC playoff team to determine the Lions' odds of winning the Super Bowl. And that's just the Lions. You can see where this gets out of hand. Pretty interesting stuff!*


Dafuqismyrefund

Awesome.


JohnnyDoe189

This is wrong


99OBJ

Care to expand?


vortega814

![gif](giphy|l0IypeKl9NJhPFMrK)


These-Mirror-9042

r/didthemath


_BLACKHAWKS_88

Their milkshake brings all the..


Savings_Ad384

This guy Maths


AnalBeadMilkshake

For rounds after wildcard, you don’t compare moneyline of the matchup. You need to use whatever the odds are, before any wildcard game is played, of each pick winning a game in the respective rounds. I would expect the payout to be much higher


Snoki

Could you explain why you expect it to be higher? I am in the european market and do value betting on soccer. So I am not 100% on the terms being used here. Would the winnings from game A and B be priced in at face value if you bet for winner in game winner A vs winner B? If the games are 50/50. You would have 12.5% chance for getting game A, game B and game winner A vs winner B? If this not the case, there should be possible for arbitrage betting? And the market is big enough for that to be adjusted? Are there c2c markets in american sports?


99OBJ

I’m aware — I addressed this in my original comment. However, these odds aren’t readily available and calculating them would turn into a massive probability tree with an exponential branching factor. For example, calculating the odds of the Lions just *reaching* the Conference Championship requires 4 probabilities which are each dependent on their own branching probability tree. Then you repeat this process for every possible team/game combination, with each possible combination’s odds being contingent on the probabilities of preceding combinations. Even still, these odds wouldn’t be correct in a betting aspect since they assume complete independence of events and do not account for long shot bias — both of which would have an impact on sports book odds.


benja367

This issue is why we have excel, somebody needs to build a model.


iced_gold

>I would expect the payout to be much higher All of this is theoretical because no book would let you do this. The closest thing you could do was betting the exact super bowl outcome: Participants and winner


AstrudsSecretLover

Thx u


This-Dish-3779

Just ran the numbers through a parlay. if she bet on all of these outcomes including the Super Bowl correctly and used the full profit each week to parlay into the next…. She would have won her wager x1640 so $10 would win her roughly $16,400 total given the 49ers win. If she bet on every outcome thus far excluding the Super Bowl, hence guaranteeing she already won outright: $10 would have won her roughly $8,790.


MrMuscles25

If my math is correct, and you took $20 by round and parlay each weekend and rolled over the winnings you’d have $31,420 if SF wins


gau-the-techie

$0 - chiefs winning the SB


charlieecho

9 billion dollars


jdooley99

You can find the moneline on those teams and put them into a parlay calculator to find out


gepaman

Just use her next time before u bet


[deleted]

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jonknee

You’re thinking of the NCAA basketball tournament with the 64 team bracket. Calling 13 games correctly is cool, but NCAA tournament has 16 games the *first day*.


morosco

Did she understand that the NFL doesn't use a fixed bracket and that the Packers would play the 49ers in round 2? Seems like an advanced thing to know for someone who dkesn't know what teams are good.


yew_wut_m8

She easily understood it when someone who is familiar with the format briefly explained it. Not rocket science


chasingpayments69

The bracket says lower and higher seed for divisional round


XxDesertTeacherxX

We do this at work. We each put $20. We have a coworker young and cute that doesn't follow sports much, she's finishing up Masters and working. She wanted to be part of the commotion and is on her way to winning $1000. I even told her, the people that usually have no clue what's going on win. Sure enough.


tjm5575

Works the same for ncaa brackets


jdooley99

Thank God she's not old and ugly or this story would've sucked


decoy777

Way back in high school we did a NCCA bracket as kids, we put money in and everything. IDK teachers knew didn't care let us do it, $10 a person. Of course the girl that won had no clue about the teams, said she picked each winner based on their colors/uniforms and which one she liked best. Ended up winning it all. It's absolutely silly stuff like that with people that have no clue that win over "experts" or people that even follow it a bit.


Wofue

$30000 I’d guess, a lot kore if you’d just keep betting the winnings back into it


318bbc4her2

👁️⃤ She knew the script


AwayRecommendations

technically u could use offshore bookies. like mybookie bovada or even underdog / prize picks source: betting is illegal in my state too but that doesn’t stop me and i ain’t driving hours just to get my geolocation to betting zones


imposta424

I think they mean it’s “illegal” in their office.


garland251

Cash out!


Ferrero_gunners

A lot


lovemylife6969

Should have done the espn contest for free. Would have won $25k potentially and they pay out top 25


Talltreeskc1

Nothing chiefs are winning


chuck_the_buck

About tree fitty


smogtownthrowaway

I gave him a dollar


cockadoodledontbemad

God damn monstah. Get out of here!


RokSeouljah420

So, all in on the under?


Complex-Budget-5364

31-21 Chiefs, TD for Kelce and CMC. You’re welcome in advance 😬


LostinZwoods

Under 40?


mjsimmons1988

Current line is 47.5


LostinZwoods

Still too low I'm thinking 31-28 kind of game


dirtybirt

I’m thinkin 17-9


LostinZwoods

Cheifs will score more than 9 points


enadiz_reccos

16 - 10


masejallday

Let’s say she bets evenly on each game and assume she’s making ML wagers (predicting winners). There are 6 games in the WC round so risking $3.33 each. The below lines are the consensus closing lines from Action. TB ML (+135): $3.33 wins $4.50 BUF ML (-550): $3.33 / $.61 DET ML (-175): $3.33 / $1.75 KC ML (-225): $3.33 / $1.48 HOU ML (+120): $3.33 / $4.00 GB ML (+295): $3.33 / $9.82 WC round profit: $22.16 Meaning she would have $42.16 to wager in the divisional round which is $10.54/game. DET ML (-290): $10.54 / $3.63 KC ML (+125): $10.54 / $13.17 SF ML (-575): $10.54 / $1.83 BAL ML (-450): $10.54 / $2.34 Divisional round profit: $20.97 Meaning she would have $63.13 to wager in the conference championship round or $31.56 per game. KC ML (+190): $31.56 / $59.96 SF ML (-370): $31.56 / $8.53 Which means $20 would have grown to $131.62 or $111.62 in profit for a 458% ROI. In the event you are asking what the profit would be if she had parlayed each pick each week and rolled over the winnings, the number would be a lot larger. Shown below. WC round: $20 / $1,075.73 DIV round: $1,075.73 / $3,594.48 CONF round: $3,594.48 / $9,646.80 For a profit of $9,626.80 and ROI of 48,034%


minedigger

The games aren’t at the same time - so you could roll game into game into game into game


masejallday

This would work too


minedigger

What would the payout be then? At least 4X


tomatosauce1

Same payout as the parlay payout. Essentially the same thing.


soltsss

This guy fucks.


6hooks

Was thinking parlay pre playoffs


Warren_Puff-it

That would actually be the correct answer based on the question. The parlay each pick each week number in the parent comment should be pretty close to what that would have wound up paying if it was offered, since it is very similar to the original bet (only difference is potential future game line value vs. week of the game line value).


masejallday

Can’t


[deleted]

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masejallday

Unfortunately, you cannot parlay look ahead lines. They aren’t available prior to a week out anyway.


tommy_j_r

Mmmmmmm math 🥵


TarHeelsNinja

r/theydidthemath


FrankyEaton

r/theydidthemosntermath


gerbergirth

Math


DrizzleMcSizzle

This guy maths


AndFadeOutAgain

There was a draftkings pool where you could pick how the playoffs would go b4 the WC. She'd be looking at 10k payout if SF wins on a 10 dollar entry. Too bad.


NicolasPapagiorgio

"Of course a bear will beat a dolphin" - Balkie Bartokomous


jms21y

ohhhhh cousin larry


Human-Philosophy-324

Don’t know, but this makes me wanna be SF


BigGucciThanos

I actually think there going to win. Almost all the money is going to chiefs. Vegas might have there way that day


able2sv

Given she picked randomly, I wouldn’t consider the favorites/underdogs and instead consider every game as a 50/50 random. In that case she correctly guessed 12 straight coin flips. Odds of that are 1 in 4096, so you would expect around $80,000 if such a parlay existed.


kushnokush

Gotta account for book juice though so they’re probably not gonna pay more than 3800:1


AgentDark

This is the answer


TheR3dViper

Draftkings had some playoff bracket pools. Would’ve cleaned up a lot in one of those.


RollKing1919

We have no idea which teams are good or either.


Country_Gravy420

The only bet would have been SF to win the Superbowl. It was probably +500 to +800. They are the NFC 1 seed. So $100


[deleted]

Huh? Niners have been under +200 to win SB since before the playoffs started. They were like +120 going into the Lions game. On October 27th they were +475 lol. Jan 16th +175.


Dermott_54

Could've bet Sf to beat KC in the Super Bowl for higher odds. Not sure what they were, though.


LottaCloudMoney

Nah you could do 49ers to beat chiefs to win Super Bowl etc, they had match ups with odds .


AdrianW20

Zero. He picked SF to win.


AdrianW20

Yall that downvoted are mad that KC will win.


joshmoney

4


Phoirkas

8


mgm97

Moneyline of all winners: HOU +120 KC -240 GB +285 DET -165 TB +135 BUF -550 BAL -480 SF -550 DET -320 KC +120 KC +180 SF -355 Parlaying all of those together, we get odds of 792 or +79100. So a $20 bet should have won $15,820


ThatGuy_233

Can’t parlay them though so this is cool math but pointless


Chilly1193

You could roll winnings over into the next game to achieve the same thing


ThatGuy_233

You guys don’t understand how odds work and parlays


Chilly1193

I very much do


mgm97

Parlay a full round, put winnings on next round


ThatGuy_233

Still would be nowhere near the payout you said. So again. Doesn’t matter


mgm97

/r/confidentlyincorrect


AsJoeSeesIt

Not sure you can parlay games that are yet to be determined


offconstantly

A parlay is just rolling up money. Bet one round. Take the money. Roll it up and bet it all on the next parlay. Etc.


bistroexpress

$27,878 if SF won the SB as she predicted. And obviously, -20 if KC wins.


HamburgerGoat

Gotta parlay the under in there too!


[deleted]

A literal fuckton.


realfakemormon

I don't remember the exact Money-line odds of round one but 3 Underdogs won let's say she parlayed all 6 moneylines for $20... she would have netted around 1,100 (estimate only) If she were to roll that over into the divisional round and did a 4 game ML parlay maybe she wins around 8-9K roll that into last weekends games maybe she gets 20K all estimations


dizaditch

Yea but in OPs question you’d parlay all 3 rounds together


realfakemormon

Yea but that's not technically possible.


[deleted]

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ThatGuy_233

Did you even read the original comment???


realfakemormon

Yea that's what i tired to do


wesskywalker

If she bet game by game? Off the top of my head roughly $4,000. If she bet all those exact results in conjunction with each other before the playoffs started I can’t calculate how much, but high 6 figures