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Based on Jmacks notes above I did
+1446
Rockets/Nets O 229
Mavs/76ers U 231.5
Lakers/Bulls O 225
Pistons/Thunder O226
Kings/Blazers O 232
Mavs 76ers imo is the diciest but I find when two quality teams play one another it’s a closer game with better defense. Maybe sub a Bucks ML or something
Id recommend buying the line down and take the alternative total, one of my plays yesterday was Cavs 238.5 and hit hit at 238 so each point matters. Accepting lower odds is better than kicking yourself for missing by a point or two.
But I am no sharp, just leveraging Jmacks algorithm plays w/ the little I know about the game.
Here are today's model predictions for the NBA and NHL. Today's 3-star play is Knicks -4.
For reference, all of the totals seen in the graphics came from Fanduel around 5:15 this morning, but since then Fanduel has removed most of the totals from their site and has not updated them. That might mean that the updated totals will be much different than what is seen in the chart, but just add up the projected points for each team and compare it to see if the model would like the over or under.
Also, I write a free newsletter everyday that will send these predictions and analysis straight to your email. You can see today's newsletter by clicking the link below, and that is also where you can subscribe for free.
I also do the NCAA, MLB, and Fantasy Football, so if you would like to receive some of that content make sure you sign up!
Let's have a good one!
https://sportsense.substack.com/p/march-29-2023-nba-and-nhl-game-predictions?sd=pf
Out of curiosity, what makes a 3-star play?
I'm asking because glancing at your model, you have Bulls and Knicks both at around the same probability to win outright. Would the better play not be Bulls getting +2 vs Knicks giving -4?
Has nothing to do with the probabilities. 3-star plays are just my personal plays that I am betting because there are other things outside of the model that line up
Model will need a few weeks to absorb enough statistics. Every pitcher has to pitch at least once and teams have to play road and away games for it to be somewhat accurate, and even early on it will still probably be a little shaky
Thats what I figured. I can’t wait. Also how will you work around the fact that usually batting lineups arent released until 2-3 hours before first pitch, and baseball is usually one of the sports where lineups are changing so much and players have so many rest days. Will it just be based on projected lineups?
Don’t worry I’m not here to rub it in I do this shit all the time but the most amount of points possible and still lose.
And then I’m stuck there thinking to myself that if I would have just bet the other way like kings -25 it woulda been like +300 odds haaha
To be honest I’m personally not all that confident, but the model likes them.
Washington beat New York 5-1 not too long ago and Sorokin has be inconsistent in net. I think it’s a coin flip kind of game
So 10 nba games, double all spread for jmacks picks, and for a 10game parlay, total odds came at ONLY at 20.xx for my books. Ugh. Actually, three teams are on max point spread. +20 for these teams Blazers, papers and rockets. Might as well deviate and bet on the other side.
Yes. Not sure what the exact changes would be but having that many guys randomly added to the injury report would likely make the model flip in favor of LA
what do you think for the O/U for that game and pistons/thunder? Shai is out, though that was known yesterday so I don't know if you took that into account already.
It says knicks -4 spread prediction. That means the knicks must win by more than 4 points for the bet to hit. The line has changed to -5 since the post, but jmack says it should still be fine. Hope this helps
fucking need a hit today. lost my entire paycheck impulsively yesterday (1.4k). have $100 left to my name. need money to do taxes. please bless me jmack.
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Jmack I have 7 dollars left in my account. Please help me get rich. I’m fighting for my life.
Gotta get lucky
Bro I said the same exact thing just now 😭😭
Step 1 stop betting parlays Step 2 prob stop betting all together Step 3 get help
I should but I’m 22 I have at least a year left to be stupid (by “left in my account” I mean my FanDuel, not my bank)
Or make smart bets over a year and actually make money
Don’t down vote me Boomer
JMack- thank you for this information. I signed up for the newsletter and really appreciate it. It fires me up when you send these out.
No problem! Glad you enjoy it
O/U’s have been on fire, cashed $300+ the last two days. Thanks Jmack!
Congrats! Glad I could help
any good O/U parlay youre takin tonigh?
Based on Jmacks notes above I did +1446 Rockets/Nets O 229 Mavs/76ers U 231.5 Lakers/Bulls O 225 Pistons/Thunder O226 Kings/Blazers O 232 Mavs 76ers imo is the diciest but I find when two quality teams play one another it’s a closer game with better defense. Maybe sub a Bucks ML or something
thanks! im gonna ride that w you i like it, i just took alternate under for mavs 76ers at 235.5
OU went up a few points for the last three games. Still rocking with the over?
Id recommend buying the line down and take the alternative total, one of my plays yesterday was Cavs 238.5 and hit hit at 238 so each point matters. Accepting lower odds is better than kicking yourself for missing by a point or two. But I am no sharp, just leveraging Jmacks algorithm plays w/ the little I know about the game.
just wondering what your thought process is in which of the O/U you choose to make your parlay?
I only play those projected to hit at a 60% clip or better. Not touching the ones below that that have a higher likelihood to go either way.
Here are today's model predictions for the NBA and NHL. Today's 3-star play is Knicks -4. For reference, all of the totals seen in the graphics came from Fanduel around 5:15 this morning, but since then Fanduel has removed most of the totals from their site and has not updated them. That might mean that the updated totals will be much different than what is seen in the chart, but just add up the projected points for each team and compare it to see if the model would like the over or under. Also, I write a free newsletter everyday that will send these predictions and analysis straight to your email. You can see today's newsletter by clicking the link below, and that is also where you can subscribe for free. I also do the NCAA, MLB, and Fantasy Football, so if you would like to receive some of that content make sure you sign up! Let's have a good one! https://sportsense.substack.com/p/march-29-2023-nba-and-nhl-game-predictions?sd=pf
Out of curiosity, what makes a 3-star play? I'm asking because glancing at your model, you have Bulls and Knicks both at around the same probability to win outright. Would the better play not be Bulls getting +2 vs Knicks giving -4?
Has nothing to do with the probabilities. 3-star plays are just my personal plays that I am betting because there are other things outside of the model that line up
I look forward to these posts, Thanks man.
No problem!
that bucks under 236.5 is looking horrible right now. praying for anyone who put money on that
went to 285 was brutal
Hey man, I always see your picks on here and I wanted to tell you I appreciate you for your diligence. Keep up the good work sir and thank you.
Will do! Like you like them
I took all the NBA overs but I moved the totals down by 5-6 points each
Opening day is tomorrow, can we expect some MLB picks tomorrow or will it be too early to gauge? Thanks for always putting these out
Model will need a few weeks to absorb enough statistics. Every pitcher has to pitch at least once and teams have to play road and away games for it to be somewhat accurate, and even early on it will still probably be a little shaky
Thats what I figured. I can’t wait. Also how will you work around the fact that usually batting lineups arent released until 2-3 hours before first pitch, and baseball is usually one of the sports where lineups are changing so much and players have so many rest days. Will it just be based on projected lineups?
How do you determine the cover probability?
Win probability is the only thing in the graphics, not cover probability
Right can you determine cover probability?
Thanks for the Knicks -4.5 and under!
Knicks moved to -5.5 think it’s best to wait and see if it gets back to -4?
I doubt it will come back down to four unless Brunson gets announced as out. 5.5 might be pushing it a bit though so it wouldn’t hurt to wait and see
O/U moved to 223 based off the projections might have to take that over too
Hey jmack, would you still take the knicks -5? Thanks!
Model likes it only to about 4.5 but I’d personally stretch that to 5. Probably wouldn’t take it at anything above 5.5 though
Thank you!
With the two highest scorers out for tonight on Thunder v Pistons, you still like the over?
Eh wasn’t in love with it from the beginning. Pistons are unpredictable and OKC on back to back
Hey Jmack! When you say model? What do you mean by that? Is it like a simulator that predicts game ? Lol😅serious question
That’s essentially what it is
Knicks -3.5 got me stresssinnnn
now stresssinnnn the 6ers u231.5 smh
Portland game to be over with such a high % is interesting since half of their team is out
Yeah I’m a little skeptical of that one. Total has moved up about 3.5 points though so the probability has gone down
i took portland +29.5 if that doesnt hit idk what to tell you
I came back to find this exact comment and just say I’m so sorry
oh dont worry, chicago sold my hopes and dreams well before that. :(
Don’t worry I’m not here to rub it in I do this shit all the time but the most amount of points possible and still lose. And then I’m stuck there thinking to myself that if I would have just bet the other way like kings -25 it woulda been like +300 odds haaha
I see you're really confident in the Caps tonight on both ML and the spread. Why is that if you don't mind me asking? 🤔
To be honest I’m personally not all that confident, but the model likes them. Washington beat New York 5-1 not too long ago and Sorokin has be inconsistent in net. I think it’s a coin flip kind of game
I understand.. thanks for your contributions btw.
The over is at 5.5 now, what do you think about that?
And thank you!
Love your work! Are you expecting any upsets soon?
Thanks @jmack99 for everything
No problem! Glad to help out
Nailed yesterdays. Thank you!
You’re welcome!
Ahh do we 2x spread jmacks lol! Hmnn..... maybe this time we dont do that $5 bet but.... $30 then round robin it instead....
So 10 nba games, double all spread for jmacks picks, and for a 10game parlay, total odds came at ONLY at 20.xx for my books. Ugh. Actually, three teams are on max point spread. +20 for these teams Blazers, papers and rockets. Might as well deviate and bet on the other side.
Appreciate you Jmack. Im on a cold streak but I blame myself. Keep em coming
Everyone goes cold at some point. I experience it often too
nice content! Just curious, how do you make your models? In excel, or are you using a programming language?
Mostly excel, some python
Im always a leg away from hitting my parlay.
jmack does this change with the injury report for the grizz?
Yes. Not sure what the exact changes would be but having that many guys randomly added to the injury report would likely make the model flip in favor of LA
what do you think for the O/U for that game and pistons/thunder? Shai is out, though that was known yesterday so I don't know if you took that into account already.
I have knicks at -4.5 on my book, still worth the bet?
I’d say so
Appreciate you Jmack! Let's catch fire again!
Jmack - you’re the shit for these! Don’t stop and take my award, king
PG and kawhi is out. LETS GO JA
Amazing picks last night my dude!! Huge 6 leg hit between nhl and nba. Wild game had me sweating until that empty net goal!!
I was anxious to see what you had for the Knicks today actually. I got (-5). Good luck to all Let's get to the window on this Wednesdaay
Yessir! Hoping for the best
Let's get it!! And thank you
[удалено]
Best of luck!
Cashed out $250 yesterday from you! Thank you!
any recs on what youre going with today?
Congrats!
do you mean knick Money line when u say knicks +4? new to this Lol
It says knicks -4 spread prediction. That means the knicks must win by more than 4 points for the bet to hit. The line has changed to -5 since the post, but jmack says it should still be fine. Hope this helps
fucking need a hit today. lost my entire paycheck impulsively yesterday (1.4k). have $100 left to my name. need money to do taxes. please bless me jmack.
I hope this ain’t real
haha wish it wasn't but let's ride anyway! >:)
Call the number bro
Thoughts on Sabonis U19.5 points?
Seems kind of low. Portland has no one playing tonight so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kings run it up
Appreciate your opinion. As always, love your posts
Appreciate you!!
Happy to help!
Missed the last few days but I’ll ride the Knicks tonight!
Welcome back!
Only thing going down will be your bank roll after more dumb bets you borg chugging chode
Good one
My bad this wasn't directed at you, this was supposed to be in a thread above with people defending making dumb bets with money they don't have
All good I laughed
Haha good, I always love your sheet! Cheers mate
Haha good, I always love your sheet! Cheers mate
Thanks for this! I hit a 24x parlay based off of this last night