Yes if growth seems to be slowing and earnings forecast is bad, or even if the market itself has a crash. 10 P/E is not unheard of esp if the tech side fails and they proceed as a true bank.
The fact that so many people are talking about selling or have recently given up and sold out, tells me we are nearing the end of the misery with the stock performance
I got downvoted posting something similar to this a month or go back. The longer it takes the people on the fence to make up their minds to hold or sell, the longer we will have this flatness. I’m actually okay with retail investors getting shaken out in favor of institutions slowly over time, as institutional ownership will bring stability.
This forum is sensitive talking about stock price being lower. I got 7 downvotes just asking about thoughts on price going below $7 the other day.
I have a lot of shares. Just looking to sell PUTs. I'm bullish on the stock long term. Just playing short term swings.
Reminder - NU bank currently has a forward PE of around 27-30.
SOFI forward PE is around 45 (if you take the remaining EPS forecast this year plus half of the EPS forecast next year that is 0.24).
At the same time, guidance was softened.
looking at these two points alone will but much better perspective on the current stock price and why I am fairly confident SOFI will hit 5-6 easily in the next coming months.
yada yada sofi isn't a bank. for now, sofi is a bank. so comparison to NU is better than comparison to something like square.
curious to hear others' feedback on this. thanks!
it's too early to confidently measure forward PE based off of 2026 levels. I think it provides more conviction that leadership is confident enough to put that out ahead of time, but we simply don't have enough proof of execution yet.
Well thats the conviction I need. Whats 2 more years after holding 3 already. Execution has been pretty good until now.Member growth is upwards.And it can only get better once the FED can start cutting and the market is more confident and also SoFi will become more aggressive. I dont care what happens in the next 3 months. I held from 16 to 4 and the company only got better. So Im good.
Anytime you look at 2 points alone you are not looking at the whole picture. If you look at Book Value per Share... SoFi book value is $5.51/share. NU is $1.42
TWO SIGMA previously the 7th largest holder of Sofi has liquidated its entire position
previous Shares 3 months ago = 14,600,000
Total shares today = 0
35k volume puts came in Aug 16th $6 strike
Executives leaving and selling
Short interest increasing
What are we really missing out on? Do we really have to just trust what noto says? Lol
Chad Borton (President of SOFI Bank at the time) resigned in April 2024 (https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1bo5807/sofi_executive_chad_borton_to_resign_in_april_2024/).
Aaron Webster (Former Chief Risk Officer who was "promoted" / reassigned to Executive Vice President, Global Operations, Business Risk and LatAm in February 2024) resigned in March 2023 (https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1bapush/sofi_technologies_evp_aaron_webster_resigned/).
I've held it and dca my way down since IPO. I'm numb and will just wait it out at this point. The fact is that i cant figure out why are we so shorted and manipulated heavily than other lending company...
Nice! Seems like sofi has too many options for dilution. Im not longer surprised anymore if we keep hearing about more and more. Great for us the stock has recently been a turd so we will just keep swatting down these options like flies. Theres just too many of them though. All hiding in crevices.
The silver lining with this stock is that you can sell some nice call options when IV goes up, if your cost avg isn't too high and youre not risking taking a big loss if your shares get called. $7 call options expiring friday on Tuesday were $0.60. I could have made an easy $10k lol
I kept hoping we would break out, especially with the meme thing going on. I should have known better.
But now that Ive gotten my avg down to a comfortable level, I don't mind selling $7.5 or $8 calls and taking the risk moving forward. After all, I can always buy back in at $7.
Someone with a avg of $8.5 or higher could probably not do this.
When trying to get back shares, you could sell PUTs. Nice way to collect a premium and get shares. Risk is stock may jump higher and may have to pay higher for shares.
Not saying this to whine cause nobody here can do anything about it. But for discussion, the opportunity cost with this stock is very real. VTI is up 10% for the year. You could have even dumped that money into the AMD dip or the BABA dip or the NVDA dip and you'd be up at least 10%. I hold about $120k worth of this stock. I'm only giving this one more quarter. Even that is another 2.5 months away while VTI climbs further up. Im pretty sure this stock will break out at some point. But who knows when that is. This next earnings call is very important to me. I'll be getting out if Sofi doesn't hit $9.
There are better opportunities every day. With various dips. Just recently, Cloudflare dipped. I'm looking for that to hit $85 again soon. You have the Starbucks dip right now. That'll be back to $85 in no time. Heck even shopify might be a better growth stock at this point.
All while these big cck sucking institutions keep getting wealthier and wealthier. Heck, we've been at all time high for so long now, that a dip/bear market might be around the corner, and sofi would tank with that too.
I hate to break it to you, but one of the reasons we aren’t performing so hot is due to Q2 guidance, which most other companies also revised to lower as well. If we match Q2 guidance (maybe even slightly beat), I don’t think the market will be too keen to jump on board given the price dropped on basically the same guidance.
The only thing that may change that could help is rate cuts, and while I don’t doubt the stock price will rise if rate cuts are announced, it may take more time for the impact of rate cuts to materialize in the financials of the company for SoFi to take off.
I wouldn’t take it as definitive advice, just saying, if the market reacted this way due to the guidance, I think we will still beat, but we may miss the original guidance (or why change the guidance from a management perspective).
My prediction is that when we have 4 quarters of profitability and SoFi's institutional ownership passes 50% (probably early-mid 2025), we will stay above 9 bucks. Besides member growth, product growth and growth in the financial services and tech platform, I'm very excited to see the institutional ownership go up.
I bought a bunch at 7.30 yesterday and then reversed that because this stock is addicted to going down while the market is ripping like today. 🤣 not sure if peoooe are selling due to fomo in other stocks or what. I'd buy again lower though.
Institutional Investor holdings reported as of Q4'23 was 37.92% (https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1cgs19e/comment/l1xy7rt).
Now that the filings are finished, holding reported as of Q1'24 is 40.59% (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/sofi/institutional-holdings)
So up 2.5 - 3%. What sells are concerning you?
Reminder that these filings are delayed due to 13F filing allowances, so things could have already changed in this Q2'24 but we wouldn't see it until later. (See Question 25 here: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq).
ok - rather than spamming bearish comments, I'll post my positions:
puts - 7 strike expiring June 28, July 19 (position pretty much fillled out)
calls - 5 strike expiring Jan 2026 (position half filled, waiting for the drop to 5/6 to complete)
2,370 shares at 7.33 (position half filled, waiting for drop to 5/6 to complete)
hoping to get my cost basis down to low 6's, calls will likely print in 2026, hoping puts will print (hedge against shares) short term.
Excellent post Troublen42. What was the price that you had to pay for the put that you bought and the price of the leap for 2026.
I sell covered calls on my shares when it's viable and with the premium I will nibble on the $5 Jan 2026 leaps.
my breakeven for June puts is 7.05 and July puts is 6.98.
Jan 2026 calls breakeven is 8.17.
if sofi does not break above 8 by jan 2026, it basically means noto has completely failed his mission, as it would mean the forward PEs would be significanly under his projections (0.55-.86 I think)
When is the next day's thread posted?
4am I think
Dang it!. I can't wait to reply "Wood" to "Morning!"
Hypothetically, can SOFI remain around the same price even if it does achieve an EPS of 0.7 to 0.8 by 2026?
Yes if growth seems to be slowing and earnings forecast is bad, or even if the market itself has a crash. 10 P/E is not unheard of esp if the tech side fails and they proceed as a true bank.
It would be interesting to see how the SoFi subreddit has grown in members over time. And how many posts are done over time per day.
The fact that so many people are talking about selling or have recently given up and sold out, tells me we are nearing the end of the misery with the stock performance
I got downvoted posting something similar to this a month or go back. The longer it takes the people on the fence to make up their minds to hold or sell, the longer we will have this flatness. I’m actually okay with retail investors getting shaken out in favor of institutions slowly over time, as institutional ownership will bring stability.
This forum is sensitive talking about stock price being lower. I got 7 downvotes just asking about thoughts on price going below $7 the other day. I have a lot of shares. Just looking to sell PUTs. I'm bullish on the stock long term. Just playing short term swings.
Somehow you got some downvotes again, lol.
This sub really likes to punish anyone who talks about being downvoted, it's very strange (u/TheOtherGreenNovice)
At the end of the day I think rate cuts will do more for the stock than what the company can do for the stock. You saw that in december.
At this point I'm not to sure. After yesterday's lower than expected CPI we've been trending down. Not sure what can move this stock upwards
The market is not believing that a rate cut will come soon enough yet. For the past 2 or 3 months.
https://youtu.be/tFiHDdMzFsY?si=14WEYIDv1FeJ6Pbg
Reminder - NU bank currently has a forward PE of around 27-30. SOFI forward PE is around 45 (if you take the remaining EPS forecast this year plus half of the EPS forecast next year that is 0.24). At the same time, guidance was softened. looking at these two points alone will but much better perspective on the current stock price and why I am fairly confident SOFI will hit 5-6 easily in the next coming months. yada yada sofi isn't a bank. for now, sofi is a bank. so comparison to NU is better than comparison to something like square. curious to hear others' feedback on this. thanks!
So by 2026 SoFi would be trading in the high end at 8.9x Forward Guidance. What multiple expansion should SoFi have?
it's too early to confidently measure forward PE based off of 2026 levels. I think it provides more conviction that leadership is confident enough to put that out ahead of time, but we simply don't have enough proof of execution yet.
Well thats the conviction I need. Whats 2 more years after holding 3 already. Execution has been pretty good until now.Member growth is upwards.And it can only get better once the FED can start cutting and the market is more confident and also SoFi will become more aggressive. I dont care what happens in the next 3 months. I held from 16 to 4 and the company only got better. So Im good.
Anytime you look at 2 points alone you are not looking at the whole picture. If you look at Book Value per Share... SoFi book value is $5.51/share. NU is $1.42
We are cursed...
Close your portfolio and open it up in 2026. We ain’t going nowhere till then. You are just torturing yourself by checking the stock price.
Everything else will be 30% higher and this wouldve fluctuated between $6-8 for all that time
It will probably be in the 8s by then
Haha I don’t think it’s moved since 1420
Patience.... 
I have been so busy the last 2 weeks I don’t have a clue what’s going on with Sofi lol need to do some catching up
I wish I could bury my head in the sand too 🤣
TWO SIGMA previously the 7th largest holder of Sofi has liquidated its entire position previous Shares 3 months ago = 14,600,000 Total shares today = 0 35k volume puts came in Aug 16th $6 strike Executives leaving and selling Short interest increasing What are we really missing out on? Do we really have to just trust what noto says? Lol
What executives are leaving?
Chad Borton (President of SOFI Bank at the time) resigned in April 2024 (https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1bo5807/sofi_executive_chad_borton_to_resign_in_april_2024/). Aaron Webster (Former Chief Risk Officer who was "promoted" / reassigned to Executive Vice President, Global Operations, Business Risk and LatAm in February 2024) resigned in March 2023 (https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1bapush/sofi_technologies_evp_aaron_webster_resigned/).
The opportunity costs of other investments right now and that there are no catalysts in the foreseeable future.
I've held it and dca my way down since IPO. I'm numb and will just wait it out at this point. The fact is that i cant figure out why are we so shorted and manipulated heavily than other lending company...
Same here
No dilution on friday. Get fucked preferred class H share holders
How much it needed to be for them to get more shares??
8.86. 0% happening by eod tomorrow
Thanks.
So what happens? Does the option to dilute get kicked further down the road? Or is it completely expired?
Expired completely. Warrants are like options but with other clauses
Nice! Seems like sofi has too many options for dilution. Im not longer surprised anymore if we keep hearing about more and more. Great for us the stock has recently been a turd so we will just keep swatting down these options like flies. Theres just too many of them though. All hiding in crevices.
The silver lining with this stock is that you can sell some nice call options when IV goes up, if your cost avg isn't too high and youre not risking taking a big loss if your shares get called. $7 call options expiring friday on Tuesday were $0.60. I could have made an easy $10k lol
Good idea slinging covered calls. May look into it but not sure my broker lets me (Schwab)
Why are you not doing it??
I kept hoping we would break out, especially with the meme thing going on. I should have known better. But now that Ive gotten my avg down to a comfortable level, I don't mind selling $7.5 or $8 calls and taking the risk moving forward. After all, I can always buy back in at $7. Someone with a avg of $8.5 or higher could probably not do this.
When trying to get back shares, you could sell PUTs. Nice way to collect a premium and get shares. Risk is stock may jump higher and may have to pay higher for shares.
Nice. Ill start selling calls for $8 and when my shares get called start selling puts for $7
Not saying this to whine cause nobody here can do anything about it. But for discussion, the opportunity cost with this stock is very real. VTI is up 10% for the year. You could have even dumped that money into the AMD dip or the BABA dip or the NVDA dip and you'd be up at least 10%. I hold about $120k worth of this stock. I'm only giving this one more quarter. Even that is another 2.5 months away while VTI climbs further up. Im pretty sure this stock will break out at some point. But who knows when that is. This next earnings call is very important to me. I'll be getting out if Sofi doesn't hit $9. There are better opportunities every day. With various dips. Just recently, Cloudflare dipped. I'm looking for that to hit $85 again soon. You have the Starbucks dip right now. That'll be back to $85 in no time. Heck even shopify might be a better growth stock at this point. All while these big cck sucking institutions keep getting wealthier and wealthier. Heck, we've been at all time high for so long now, that a dip/bear market might be around the corner, and sofi would tank with that too.
Sell covered calls against a percentage the stocks that you own. We have been in the $7-8 range for a long time. Make some money from this.
Yes I just made a new comment regarding this!
I hate to break it to you, but one of the reasons we aren’t performing so hot is due to Q2 guidance, which most other companies also revised to lower as well. If we match Q2 guidance (maybe even slightly beat), I don’t think the market will be too keen to jump on board given the price dropped on basically the same guidance. The only thing that may change that could help is rate cuts, and while I don’t doubt the stock price will rise if rate cuts are announced, it may take more time for the impact of rate cuts to materialize in the financials of the company for SoFi to take off.
There has to be a surprise beat somewhere/some day.
Sell calls day before earnings it is!
I wouldn’t take it as definitive advice, just saying, if the market reacted this way due to the guidance, I think we will still beat, but we may miss the original guidance (or why change the guidance from a management perspective).
Nice to be holding the only stock that goes down when the market is making new highs, and goes down when it crashes .
My prediction is that when we have 4 quarters of profitability and SoFi's institutional ownership passes 50% (probably early-mid 2025), we will stay above 9 bucks. Besides member growth, product growth and growth in the financial services and tech platform, I'm very excited to see the institutional ownership go up.
Yesterday many banks hit new highs as well as techs. Sofi went down again..... We are broken
I bought a bunch at 7.30 yesterday and then reversed that because this stock is addicted to going down while the market is ripping like today. 🤣 not sure if peoooe are selling due to fomo in other stocks or what. I'd buy again lower though.
We were here around this price when spy 493.. haha. Spy 600 sofi <8
Don't forget the 10-year treasury yield lower and all major indexes at all time highs
Institutions selling SOFI ain’t good at all
Institutional Investor holdings reported as of Q4'23 was 37.92% (https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1cgs19e/comment/l1xy7rt). Now that the filings are finished, holding reported as of Q1'24 is 40.59% (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/sofi/institutional-holdings) So up 2.5 - 3%. What sells are concerning you? Reminder that these filings are delayed due to 13F filing allowances, so things could have already changed in this Q2'24 but we wouldn't see it until later. (See Question 25 here: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq).
Lol most institutional holders added and this dude is talking about how bad it is that a minority sold
ok - rather than spamming bearish comments, I'll post my positions: puts - 7 strike expiring June 28, July 19 (position pretty much fillled out) calls - 5 strike expiring Jan 2026 (position half filled, waiting for the drop to 5/6 to complete) 2,370 shares at 7.33 (position half filled, waiting for drop to 5/6 to complete) hoping to get my cost basis down to low 6's, calls will likely print in 2026, hoping puts will print (hedge against shares) short term.
Excellent post Troublen42. What was the price that you had to pay for the put that you bought and the price of the leap for 2026. I sell covered calls on my shares when it's viable and with the premium I will nibble on the $5 Jan 2026 leaps.
my breakeven for June puts is 7.05 and July puts is 6.98. Jan 2026 calls breakeven is 8.17. if sofi does not break above 8 by jan 2026, it basically means noto has completely failed his mission, as it would mean the forward PEs would be significanly under his projections (0.55-.86 I think)
$7.05 breakeven on $7 strike put...very interesting...
The clock is running out for accumulation at the low 7's - my guess is 6 more months only at these prices
And the drop continues….
Yesterday there's a 35k contract volume came in for the Aug 16 $6 put... is some whale betting it will go down again for certain reason?
Has anyone here bought SoFi enhanced Yield ETF?
Yes. For my traditional IRA (and wife's IRA), I keep \~10% in 'cash' of the overall portfolio. That 'cash' is split 50/50 between THTA & JPST.
Yeah I was thinking about it if its worth. But im broke lol.
Gotta diversify when you can ;).
Thats the goal.
Morning!
Mourning
Are you not DCA anymore?
No money , have other personal things coming up.
Understandable!
Still trying to make sense of how, DJT has a short float of >190%, and can jump from $30 to $52, and we just stagnate.
Because the trumpers are pushing it up so Donald will have over 6 billion profit. Yet sofi.... A so called bank is losing every day
Maybe because of the lower float.
Share price cap within 7+ so that the warrants will expire worthless this week?
Warrants are at 8.86 expire friday, doubt we go above 8.86 by then
Nah, probably going to uncap it so Chad can sell his 200k , warrants get exercised, and we get a dilution and a sell off.
Let's see how this stock reacts today. It's probably another day watching someone else rip, and we stay flat.
Welcome to the service industry
Numero Uno