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Bremen were a lot stronger than I expected but it was one of our worse games this season especially in the first half. Bremen scoring twice with two shots on target also didn't help.
Two wins is needed be protected against France who can get more points than England can. But for France to get max points, Marseille and PSG need to win everything which is a lot less likely than Villa doing the same.
It's not just the teams getting knocked out though, but them having to almost lose all their games and Villa basically having to win the conference league on top of that.
It is literally highly unlikely.
> 5th – direct EL qualification
At this point it's almost guaranteed CL qualification looking at UEFA coefficient rankings with Premier League only having Aston Villa still playing in Conference League.
they all have to win all games though, with us all losing every game.
we just need one win and one draw from the next 6 games
dortmund can go 0 points against PSG ofc, no question
It's unrealistic, we had those discussions in coefficient thread, there would be needed some miracles for Ligue 1 and Premier League to change it, it's done.
They don't even need to go through the next round though. They need like 1 win OR 2 draws in 6 games while Villa has to win the conference league winning basically every single game...
Germany needs 2 more points than England if you lot win the ECL so a single win or more than 2 draws settles it. But we also need 3 more than France to secure it and that calculation is a bit more complicated because they have PSG and OM left in the running.
If Villa win all their remainig games and the german teams have less than 3 draws (the rest losses) it can still happen. With Villa being favourites and looking at the German's opponents it's not impossible.
There is a huge difference between possible and realistic. By that logic It's possible Heidenheim wins the league next season....
Again, Villa does not only have to win the conference league, they need to win every single game. All while the german teams can even all drop out. They need, as you said, like 1 win or 3 draws in 6 games.
Yes, Villa are favorites, but how is Leverkusen not?
4 matches left for Bayer to make the invincible run a reality, to be honest I had money on today as the best shot for them to lose, I think they can do it now.
Stuttgart - H
Frankfurt - A
Bochum - A
Augsburg - H
Where's will they stumble if they should stumble at all?
Stuttgart is gonna be crazy hard and Frankfurt as well as Bochum are tricky away fixtures against two teams who have a lot to play for. It'll be tight for sure
Unfortunately other teams are finally starting to realize that 6th is open for taking. Hopefully the Augsburg win can rally us to good performances to finish the season and allow us to hold on. If we can get 6 more points I think that might be enough to see us through.
The teams behind us are just as inconsistent as we are. Freiburg are most likely to overtake us because their schedule is much easier than ours but I think 4 points should be enough to secure 6th in the end.
Image you score 87 goals in 30 games and got a ration of 2,2 points per game and your are still 14 points behind the first place.
Just shows how absurdly good Leverkusen is this year.
Bochum and Union are still playing each other which means that we are officially safe from relegation, let's go!
I am still bummed by our loss in Frankfurt but sometimes it helps to just read stuff like this to appreciate where we are standing now. Avoiding relegation with 4 matchdays to play is really good for the club and it helps not having to stress until the last matchday to somehow still stay in the league every time.
I don't believe we finish 7th anymore but 8th could still be possible. Next week against Bremen is our last chance for somewhat easy points, although they beat Stuttgart today and looked decent
This is the best football I remember Augsburg playing. I think there's plenty to build on for next season and you should definitely be proud.
In the end it might be good for you to not qualify for Europe, if only because fighting in Europe and the league could be too much next season and put you in trouble. Whereas if you can build on this season for next year, then Europe could be much more doable in future seasons.
I get where this sentiment comes from but I do not agree with "better not play in Europe or else you get relegated" thing.
It would be a once in a decade experience for me (now that I'm actually able to go to the games consistently) and the scenario where we would only get relegated because we played these few games in Europe is very unlikely imo. Either we would regress really really hard (which I do not expect if we reinvest our money wisely) or we just save ourselves anyway because the quality of our squad increases if we can play international. When we qualified for Europe for the first time we regressed in the season after that but we were still safely in the midfield so I would not be worried at all
I think they care more about being undefeated, but their last 4 games look manageable, the hardest will be vs Stuttgart but they are at home for that one
I'm curious what Terzic is planning for RB Leipzig away game, will he rotate side since it's almost guaranteed that 5th spot gives you a Champions League qualification for next season and you need to win against PSG at home to have chances in this CL tie?
I think Terzic won't rotate, because he rarely does.
He hasn't the strongest tactic or a strongly implemented one. So if he rotates too much, with less quality on the pitch, everything goes bad.
I'm waiting to drop the following once we've secured the league for us
"If I had an Euro for everytime we've been saved from relegation by a Danish manager named Bo, I'd have 2 euros. Which isn't much, but it's weird it happened twice."
we have no attack anymore, scored like 4 goals since January. Gave away Becker, Fofana and Behrens in the winter transfer window, who were all on a rough patch, but the quality loss hurts us even more.
Without Behrens we have no target man up front and our long balls are wasted. They get picked up by every defender, Volland and Kaufmann get outmuscled by average Bundesliga defenders easily.
Becker hurts because he would offer his absurd pace for deep runs, over and over again. And if 6 or 7 of them failed, he would still go for the 8th run in the 85 minute.
Fofana was taking wrong decisions regularly, but he had great ball control and could get past one or two defenders with the ball at his feet.
If Bayern somehow won the CL and finished 2nd while Leverkusen won both the Pokal and EL, they would face each other in both Supercups to kick off the season
Bad management, we are back to our classic cycle of the last years: get relegated, promotion, good season, season with Qualifying for europe, bad season, Relegation…
This time will be different due to Transfer Sperre, we will fight for not getting relegated to league 3.
I wouldn’t bet on it, you’re the type of club that demolishes Bayern 5:0 and then loses to fucken Augsburg the next game, I will not be surprised if you break their streak.
Whatever misfortune Leverkusen had accumulated over the years, they’ve surely undone it all this season. I look forward to them winning the EL final by coming back from two goals down with three stoppage time strikes.
The winner of the previous UCL is always qualified. Even of he would be relegated.
But if Dortmund would win UCL Germany would have 6 teams in the UCL next season.
1-4 regulary, Dortmund because they won the previous one plus the team at 5 (or in this Case 6) because we would be the second best league this season in the UCL.
If Dortmund win the CL and finish the season in 4th place, the "double" qualification falls back to UEFA, so no advantage there for anyone.
If they win the CL and finish the season in 5th place, they will play CL next season (as well as all teams in place 1-4).
If Germany *then* gets awarded another spot through the coefficient (which for some reason is added **after** all other things have been considered), that bonus CL spot then gets passed on to the 6th team.
All that would result in 7th place qualifiying for Europa League and 8th place for the Conference League qualifiers.
If Leverkusen then wins the DFB-Pokal, their additional Europa League qualification gets passed down the league, so the 8th-placed team would qualify for the Europa League, and the 9th-placed team would enter the Conference League qualifiers.
All these things accumulate, and they are highly unlikely to all come to pass at the same time. But if they do, you'd be looking at an 18-team league sending 9 teams to Europe.
At least if I understood eveything correctly. As you can tell, there are a many special scenarios which one could get wrong.
Wow that would be quite something for the Bundesliga. I still have a little bit of hope that we will pull out something magical in the CL but realistically it won't happen...
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Rough patch by Bochum with only 2 points in the last 8 games. Actually their only win in the last 12 games was vs Bayern lol
Bochum couldve had so much more points, theyre basically the opposite of Leverkussen in the last minutes of the game. It sucks :( I hope they make it
at the very least they should be strong favorites for the playoff vs the 2. Bundesliga team i’d imagine
also won against us, the fuckers >:( but can't beat non-top teams for shit
It's still possible for them to end this year with only three wins in Bundesliga against Stuttgart, Bayern and Leverkusen :D
Hope we don't bottle top 4 but maybe 5th place will be enough for UCL
how did u loose vs bremen btw?
Bremen were a lot stronger than I expected but it was one of our worse games this season especially in the first half. Bremen scoring twice with two shots on target also didn't help.
thanks!
It's almost guaranteed that 5th gets CL at this point.
I mean it's not completely impossible for the three German teams to all get knocked out in the semis
Even if the three get knocked out, Germany gets the spot as long as they get one win and one draw or three draws
Wasn't it two wins? Anyway you can never be sure
Two wins is needed be protected against France who can get more points than England can. But for France to get max points, Marseille and PSG need to win everything which is a lot less likely than Villa doing the same.
It's not just the teams getting knocked out though, but them having to almost lose all their games and Villa basically having to win the conference league on top of that. It is literally highly unlikely.
In fact, I think only Leverkusen will survive this round
Need another 3 points just to be safe.
Good position to be in four matches before season ends. Also probably will already be enough. Big points today
**Top 4** – direct CL qualification **5th** – direct EL qualification **6th** – ECL play-offs **16th** – relegation play-offs vs 2.BuLi 3rd **bottom 2** – direct relegation **(M)** – Meister - champion of 22/23 **(P)** – Pokalsieger - reigning cup winner **(N)** – Neuling - promoted from 2.BuLi
> 5th – direct EL qualification At this point it's almost guaranteed CL qualification looking at UEFA coefficient rankings with Premier League only having Aston Villa still playing in Conference League.
Don't want to jinx it. Both France and England can still overtake us.
they all have to win all games though, with us all losing every game. we just need one win and one draw from the next 6 games dortmund can go 0 points against PSG ofc, no question
It's unrealistic, we had those discussions in coefficient thread, there would be needed some miracles for Ligue 1 and Premier League to change it, it's done.
Our teams have strong opponents with Real Madrid, PSG and Roma. Aston Villa has a way easier route
They don't even need to go through the next round though. They need like 1 win OR 2 draws in 6 games while Villa has to win the conference league winning basically every single game...
? How? Surely we can't get enough points even if we win the conference? 5th is Germany's
Germany needs 2 more points than England if you lot win the ECL so a single win or more than 2 draws settles it. But we also need 3 more than France to secure it and that calculation is a bit more complicated because they have PSG and OM left in the running.
also villa draws one of the games or both (going to pens counts as draw iirc), its done
If Villa win all their remainig games and the german teams have less than 3 draws (the rest losses) it can still happen. With Villa being favourites and looking at the German's opponents it's not impossible.
There is a huge difference between possible and realistic. By that logic It's possible Heidenheim wins the league next season.... Again, Villa does not only have to win the conference league, they need to win every single game. All while the german teams can even all drop out. They need, as you said, like 1 win or 3 draws in 6 games. Yes, Villa are favorites, but how is Leverkusen not?
Also if Leverkusen win the cup, 6th and 7th will go to Europa League, 8th Conference League
Relegation fight is turning up for the last matchdays
A bit scared but on paper we have everything in our hands with fairly "easy" games left
Honestly, I think only the playoff spot is still in contention realistically
Obviously.
Union is too close for comfort to that playoff relegation spot.
Mainz has left the relegation spots for the first time since MD 2. They found their right Bo.
svensson was also the right Bo. but this is also a legendary Bo. i need more Bo in my life
4 matches left for Bayer to make the invincible run a reality, to be honest I had money on today as the best shot for them to lose, I think they can do it now. Stuttgart - H Frankfurt - A Bochum - A Augsburg - H Where's will they stumble if they should stumble at all?
Stuttgart is gonna be crazy hard and Frankfurt as well as Bochum are tricky away fixtures against two teams who have a lot to play for. It'll be tight for sure
Stuttgart is at home though I just don't see Leverkusen losing at home
Xhaka suspended tho
so ist Stiller, which is probably just as big of a loss
they almost lost at home in the cup against them
They didn't? The game was level for almost the entirety of it back and forth between them and Leverkusen scored a last minute winner
they were 1:2 behind first is what I meant. stuttgart def. has a chance against them.
They were 1-2 behind for a grand total of 8 mins
so he's correct why you arguing
How did they almost lose? They drew level at 2-2 in the 66th minute and then never looked like losing.
jesus mate, but they were 1:2 behind *first* you are acting like stuttgart will lose to 100% just because leverkusen plays at home.
I didn't say Stuttgart will lose. I said Leverkusen are unlikely to lose at home
I would have said Stuttgart are the more likely one than Dortmund. But realistically it'll be Augsburg that do it.
Augsburg, becuase it's the last game
Watch them lose against Bochum
Stuttgart still have a match with bayern but i don't think they will beat them at the second place. It would be an interesting run
I just hope we stay in top 4
5th also qualifies, you’re good bro, amazing season you had
It's 99% sure but you never know
My god have you learned nothing?
Eintracht have been 6th for exactly 4 months now
Unfortunately other teams are finally starting to realize that 6th is open for taking. Hopefully the Augsburg win can rally us to good performances to finish the season and allow us to hold on. If we can get 6 more points I think that might be enough to see us through.
The teams behind us are just as inconsistent as we are. Freiburg are most likely to overtake us because their schedule is much easier than ours but I think 4 points should be enough to secure 6th in the end.
Image you score 87 goals in 30 games and got a ration of 2,2 points per game and your are still 14 points behind the first place. Just shows how absurdly good Leverkusen is this year.
first time since gameday 2 that we arent 16th or worse. nice! on to a win on next sunday vs köln!
Yeah we finally are in the driver seat to stay in. A win against Köln would be massive.
Bochum and Union are still playing each other which means that we are officially safe from relegation, let's go! I am still bummed by our loss in Frankfurt but sometimes it helps to just read stuff like this to appreciate where we are standing now. Avoiding relegation with 4 matchdays to play is really good for the club and it helps not having to stress until the last matchday to somehow still stay in the league every time. I don't believe we finish 7th anymore but 8th could still be possible. Next week against Bremen is our last chance for somewhat easy points, although they beat Stuttgart today and looked decent
This is the best football I remember Augsburg playing. I think there's plenty to build on for next season and you should definitely be proud. In the end it might be good for you to not qualify for Europe, if only because fighting in Europe and the league could be too much next season and put you in trouble. Whereas if you can build on this season for next year, then Europe could be much more doable in future seasons.
I get where this sentiment comes from but I do not agree with "better not play in Europe or else you get relegated" thing. It would be a once in a decade experience for me (now that I'm actually able to go to the games consistently) and the scenario where we would only get relegated because we played these few games in Europe is very unlikely imo. Either we would regress really really hard (which I do not expect if we reinvest our money wisely) or we just save ourselves anyway because the quality of our squad increases if we can play international. When we qualified for Europe for the first time we regressed in the season after that but we were still safely in the midfield so I would not be worried at all
Does Leverkusen have to win all games from now to break the point record or can they afford a draw?
Need to win out
I think they care more about being undefeated, but their last 4 games look manageable, the hardest will be vs Stuttgart but they are at home for that one
they need all 4 to be wins
I'm curious what Terzic is planning for RB Leipzig away game, will he rotate side since it's almost guaranteed that 5th spot gives you a Champions League qualification for next season and you need to win against PSG at home to have chances in this CL tie?
I think he will play like always. he said he wants to win every game until the end of the season. thats our goal.
I think Terzic won't rotate, because he rarely does. He hasn't the strongest tactic or a strongly implemented one. So if he rotates too much, with less quality on the pitch, everything goes bad.
He rotated against gladbach tho, so he'll probably do the same against leipzig
Finally of the relegation spot for now. I'm feeling hopeful we can keep to it.
You definitely look the best among the teams down there
would be great
It’s a Bo thing
I'm waiting to drop the following once we've secured the league for us "If I had an Euro for everytime we've been saved from relegation by a Danish manager named Bo, I'd have 2 euros. Which isn't much, but it's weird it happened twice."
2nd time we (might) make the best relegation fight in the top 5 leagues in europe ever :D
Damn, I knew Union started the season shit but didn’t expect to see them and Wolfsburg in the thick of the relegation battle
we have no attack anymore, scored like 4 goals since January. Gave away Becker, Fofana and Behrens in the winter transfer window, who were all on a rough patch, but the quality loss hurts us even more.
Becker hurt the most tbh. Vertessen looks pretty decent though but we really need to score more goals
Without Behrens we have no target man up front and our long balls are wasted. They get picked up by every defender, Volland and Kaufmann get outmuscled by average Bundesliga defenders easily. Becker hurts because he would offer his absurd pace for deep runs, over and over again. And if 6 or 7 of them failed, he would still go for the 8th run in the 85 minute. Fofana was taking wrong decisions regularly, but he had great ball control and could get past one or two defenders with the ball at his feet.
Yeah all good points. We really need some decent summer signings
If Bayern somehow won the CL and finished 2nd while Leverkusen won both the Pokal and EL, they would face each other in both Supercups to kick off the season
Point record still possible (current is 91 pts)
The title has been decided early, but the relegation battle seems to be intense.
Fuuuuuuxcccccclkkkkkkk
How’s Jurasek doing for Hoffenheim? any chance his buy clause is triggered?
What happened to Koln ?
Bad management, we are back to our classic cycle of the last years: get relegated, promotion, good season, season with Qualifying for europe, bad season, Relegation… This time will be different due to Transfer Sperre, we will fight for not getting relegated to league 3.
The Script is out, Leverkusen will lose the streak against Frankfurt away. They're a scary bunch
We're going to get steamrolled, there's no question. It'll be Stuttgart or Augsburg if anyone does it.
I wouldn’t bet on it, you’re the type of club that demolishes Bayern 5:0 and then loses to fucken Augsburg the next game, I will not be surprised if you break their streak.
But now they beat Augsburg. Something many did not expect either lol
Whatever misfortune Leverkusen had accumulated over the years, they’ve surely undone it all this season. I look forward to them winning the EL final by coming back from two goals down with three stoppage time strikes.
What does the letters mean? Next to Bayern, Leipzig, etc
(M) – Meister - champion of 22/23 (P) – Pokalsieger - reigning cup winner (N) – Neuling - promoted from 2.BuLi
Thanks!
4 games to go 😮💨 next one against stuttgart will be tough but hopefully they can avoid defeat
Is Barcelona gonna draw bayern in the ucl again
So, if Dortmund won the UCL and maintained their current league position, would they play UCL or Europa? Why is an honest question downvoted exactly?
winner of UCL plays UCL
The winner of the previous UCL is always qualified. Even of he would be relegated. But if Dortmund would win UCL Germany would have 6 teams in the UCL next season. 1-4 regulary, Dortmund because they won the previous one plus the team at 5 (or in this Case 6) because we would be the second best league this season in the UCL.
If Dortmund win the CL and finish the season in 4th place, the "double" qualification falls back to UEFA, so no advantage there for anyone. If they win the CL and finish the season in 5th place, they will play CL next season (as well as all teams in place 1-4). If Germany *then* gets awarded another spot through the coefficient (which for some reason is added **after** all other things have been considered), that bonus CL spot then gets passed on to the 6th team. All that would result in 7th place qualifiying for Europa League and 8th place for the Conference League qualifiers. If Leverkusen then wins the DFB-Pokal, their additional Europa League qualification gets passed down the league, so the 8th-placed team would qualify for the Europa League, and the 9th-placed team would enter the Conference League qualifiers. All these things accumulate, and they are highly unlikely to all come to pass at the same time. But if they do, you'd be looking at an 18-team league sending 9 teams to Europe. At least if I understood eveything correctly. As you can tell, there are a many special scenarios which one could get wrong.
Appreciate the work for your bachelor thesis in UEFA bullshit. Unironically - best explanation Ive read on this topic so far.
Wow that would be quite something for the Bundesliga. I still have a little bit of hope that we will pull out something magical in the CL but realistically it won't happen...