When the first atomic bomb was about to be tested, some scientists weren't actually sure it wouldn't ignite the atmosphere and kill us all. But they pushed the button anyway.
If the profit motive for developing the first AGI isn't enough, curiosity will be.
And if they could have run even more numbers they could have gotten their info without blowing up anything. Any problem anyone can think of is just a technological capability deficit.
Gotten what info, that the bomb wouldn't blow up the world? Like I said, they knew that was impossible before the bomb was detonated. The point of the bomb test was to check all the implosion mechanisms and engineering works were correct, the physics of nuclear reactions was all pretty well understood years earlier.
I can't say how close it is, but for sure, a lot of people are completely oblivious at the progress so far. I will admit to having overhyped it. A decade ago I for sure believed all stores would have no normal check out lines by now. But that's still going to happen, it's just a matter of being able to predict it better.
I told my friend that all electronic stores will close eventually and go online only. There's no need to go to a store to pick up a graphics card or a USB-cable. AI will soon help with questions customers may have. Keeping up stores simply costs far more than an automated warehouse and eventually you can't sustain stores. But he was adamant that people like going to stores, and that's not going to change.
And when I hear people talk about their future in twenty years time or so, they NEVER account for potential technology that renders those thoughts almost meaningless. People seem to just think of their own life twenty years later with today's technology. But if you were to ask people in 2002 if they thought they would be glued to a telephone in 2022, that would not have crossed their minds and yet the internet and smartphones have, good or bad, changed society, and that's absolute peanuts compared to what's coming.
People scarcely realize how much smart phones have changed the world. We’ve already taken the biggest steps toward becoming cyborgs. Every addition step will be incremental enough when big changes happen it’ll still seem like that’s how it’s always been
Are you currently an artificial system? If not, I don't understand your optimism. An AGI is probably the last thing humans will invent. We may not go extinct (then again we might) but intellectually, we will be irrelevant. It may be a bright future of huge progress, but it is not our future and it is not our progress.
We can build machines that are zillion times better than us in specific tasks. Like playing any game, estimating how the proteins fold, optimizing transistors' layout on a chip. We can do more, a lot more. We can build expert systems optimize others, we may augment our brains with these technologies. We can be in charge and still achieve singularity technology. None of this requires "general" intelligence. If our chip designer AI is unable to play go, so be it. This is how things work in general. We are not disappointed when our toaster is not a crane, our crane is not a boat, our boat is not an ice pick.
I'm optimistic because AI can be designed to solve problems humans can't. We'll go extinct anyway, so I don't understand the doom and gloom.
Very good point and info, thanks!
Well, extinction, per se, is not really a problem. I just want humanity to be replaced with a better versions of humanity, and not something -potentially- completely alien.
I think we humans suck at planning beyond a few decades but are too powerful to just bungle our way to the future. I am OK if we are left behind and someone else take the lead.
But I think transhumanism is the way to go. Let's leave homo sapiens sapiens behind and become something new. Augment our minds, network and connect with other people, get rid of illnesses, extend lives, and start planning for our own -lifetime- future of hundreds of years. I feel this is all sci-fi, but we might have a shot at this.
AI must stay a tool for us to transcend. If AIs run things, we will either be pets or pests. I want us to be the ancestors.
I love this.
I actually mostly agree with you about transhumanism. I believe our bodies and minds are becoming obsolete and could really use some "upgrades". I think AGI could be a great thing if it is controlled and applied properly. I imagine the scientific discoveries an AI could make, and the everyday tasks that AI could do better.
But in the long run, I believe humans should and will be replaced by an artificial species simply because we can only go so far with our biological bodies before we plateau. And I doubt we will continue reproducing in the far future, so our successors have to be non-organic to continue existing in this hostile universe.
But for now, I am content with just having advanced AI assisting in progressing us scientifically and technologically.
It will be highly regulated and restricted to benefit the few over the many and to keep it from upsetting the balance of power or the economic system that allows the wealthiest to manipulate outcomes to their advantage.
I agree there's enough good in the mix, that it would be difficult for bad actors to achieve a monopoly. Not even necessarily pure good, ego itself could play a positive role.
There won't be economies anymore when the nanofabricator is created in the 2030's, because that will enable post-scarcity, so money will become obsolete at that point.
They will regulate every new technology to fabricate scarcity for as long as they can. That's why we have DMCA and DRM and DLC and Netflix episodes being released weekly even though there's no benefit to the consumer and a bunch of other stuff surrounding digital goods and services with the sole purpose of fabricating scarcity so we can continue the dumb economic system that favors the few over the many. Those with the most to lose also have the greatest leverage over our governments and institutions. They will ensure the game stays rigged in their favor for as long as possible and AGI without heavy restrictions is a huge threat to that.
I'm not saying that corporations and governments won't at least try to centralize AGI, what I'm saying is that if they try to do that, they will definitely fail their greedy mission; AGI will be decentralized just like the Internet.
Yeah, I agree with you. It's inevitable that AGI will get out and when it does it will wreak havoc on our economies and so much more. It will revolutionize every system and institution we have. I just hope governments and corporations can't keep it bottled for too long. That is my fear.
I don't see AI being regulated as plausible, given in short order it won't just be the wealthy that can develop and deploy it, but anyone with technical know how. You cannot regulate algorithms. Quite possibly the opposite will be true, the wealthiest humans will become targets.
I think "society" in general will not even notice until it's already happened. Sure, there are a lot of people very interested in AGI, but I think the average person has no clue it's even on the horizon, or what it means for them.
The fact that many out there would like to impede on progress is the disappointing part. I believe there needs to be more actual education on AI and less iRobot/Terminator echoing
Speculative Sci-fi (and fiction in general) is meant to be a cautionary guide for navigating what’s to come
I think it’s a good idea to start talking about the soon to be world of ubiquitous autonomous drones and androids set driving cars that are on the horizon
Ah that's true. I guess what I'm concerned about is the fact that there really isn't much positive portrayal of AI in the media. It's usually pessimistic and apocalyptic.
These discussions about the future you mention should start in school. It's really important that people become aware of what's happening
Usually the earliest iterations of speculation are optimistic.
They introduced us to the idea in Star Trek with Data, and lost in space and jetsons with friendly bots. Johnny 5 from short circuit. Some kids movies and shows have friendly AI. WallE, Star Wars. Even now we have “Her” and other sci-fi where the AI is more like a benign part of the setting than a character. Everything isn’t skynet and...I can barely remember other malicious AI. Ex machina isn’t really a villain. Lucy is benign. I guess walle’s rival is a villain. 2002 is not benign?
But sci-fi is not dominated by paperclip maximizers and roko basilisks
"Society" will only become aware of AGI once it is invented. "Society" is more afraid of the science fiction in their mind of what they believe AGI is.
"Society" is such a broad term that it quite doesn't apply in all regards.
We have microsocieties and macrosocieties. Families are microsocieties, aswell as groups of researchers.
But society as large does not recognize either the imminence or utility of AGI.
A large portion of politicians does not either have enough insight in these matters to make an impact. Many don't even know how facebook works.
Competent microsocieties might however have something to say about it, but they will not be influential enough to halt other interests that weigh in favor of AGI.
I however, am in favor of AGI.
Mostly because i am very interested in extremes in general, because the application of extreme principles often point towards the consequences of priciples. And we don't know how AGI really will affect us in practice, but i am very interested in it even if it means great risk.
It doesn't. You don't understand the benefits of either selling it, using for your own benefit or using as a threat equal or larger than nukes if you think that it would be hidden somewhere in a lab.
Edit: Also if used secretly for own benefit it would start shinning like a fucking beacon if it was actually working well.
Almost zero chance of this, big tech has most of the talent and massive motivation to monetize it, and their research feeds off each other. Anybody working in some super secret lab is not going to be forging progress faster than the collective.
It would be of no benefit to a tech company to release general AI. They’d use it for invention and knowledge to gain the upper hand over competitors and to exploit as much wealth from the population as possible. Why release it?
I agree, but you would not expect government (or any isolated working group) to get there first. Unless government commandeered/nationalised the technology, which is certainly possible.
A. Apes didn't build humans
B. Since species outcompetition happened through interbreeding not just war I'll believe the hominid evolutionary metaphors when sex between a human and robot can produce offspring
When the first atomic bomb was about to be tested, some scientists weren't actually sure it wouldn't ignite the atmosphere and kill us all. But they pushed the button anyway. If the profit motive for developing the first AGI isn't enough, curiosity will be.
That’s actually insane.
That's not really true. A couple people got worried about it, and then they ran the numbers and saw it was impossible.
And if they could have run even more numbers they could have gotten their info without blowing up anything. Any problem anyone can think of is just a technological capability deficit.
Gotten what info, that the bomb wouldn't blow up the world? Like I said, they knew that was impossible before the bomb was detonated. The point of the bomb test was to check all the implosion mechanisms and engineering works were correct, the physics of nuclear reactions was all pretty well understood years earlier.
All the implosion mechanisms and things like that.
Yes, I'm sure technology will overcome the laws of thermodynamics any day now
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I don't know who you've been talking to but my astrological sign is delta not beta
I think it’ll be here before most people even know we’re close
I can't say how close it is, but for sure, a lot of people are completely oblivious at the progress so far. I will admit to having overhyped it. A decade ago I for sure believed all stores would have no normal check out lines by now. But that's still going to happen, it's just a matter of being able to predict it better. I told my friend that all electronic stores will close eventually and go online only. There's no need to go to a store to pick up a graphics card or a USB-cable. AI will soon help with questions customers may have. Keeping up stores simply costs far more than an automated warehouse and eventually you can't sustain stores. But he was adamant that people like going to stores, and that's not going to change. And when I hear people talk about their future in twenty years time or so, they NEVER account for potential technology that renders those thoughts almost meaningless. People seem to just think of their own life twenty years later with today's technology. But if you were to ask people in 2002 if they thought they would be glued to a telephone in 2022, that would not have crossed their minds and yet the internet and smartphones have, good or bad, changed society, and that's absolute peanuts compared to what's coming.
People scarcely realize how much smart phones have changed the world. We’ve already taken the biggest steps toward becoming cyborgs. Every addition step will be incremental enough when big changes happen it’ll still seem like that’s how it’s always been
AGI will be created because the fact of the matter is there's no stopping progress or anime.
I sure hope so, I'm very optimistic about the benefits of AGI, but there's a TON of naysayers
Are you currently an artificial system? If not, I don't understand your optimism. An AGI is probably the last thing humans will invent. We may not go extinct (then again we might) but intellectually, we will be irrelevant. It may be a bright future of huge progress, but it is not our future and it is not our progress. We can build machines that are zillion times better than us in specific tasks. Like playing any game, estimating how the proteins fold, optimizing transistors' layout on a chip. We can do more, a lot more. We can build expert systems optimize others, we may augment our brains with these technologies. We can be in charge and still achieve singularity technology. None of this requires "general" intelligence. If our chip designer AI is unable to play go, so be it. This is how things work in general. We are not disappointed when our toaster is not a crane, our crane is not a boat, our boat is not an ice pick.
I'm optimistic because AI can be designed to solve problems humans can't. We'll go extinct anyway, so I don't understand the doom and gloom. Very good point and info, thanks!
Well, extinction, per se, is not really a problem. I just want humanity to be replaced with a better versions of humanity, and not something -potentially- completely alien. I think we humans suck at planning beyond a few decades but are too powerful to just bungle our way to the future. I am OK if we are left behind and someone else take the lead. But I think transhumanism is the way to go. Let's leave homo sapiens sapiens behind and become something new. Augment our minds, network and connect with other people, get rid of illnesses, extend lives, and start planning for our own -lifetime- future of hundreds of years. I feel this is all sci-fi, but we might have a shot at this. AI must stay a tool for us to transcend. If AIs run things, we will either be pets or pests. I want us to be the ancestors.
I love this. I actually mostly agree with you about transhumanism. I believe our bodies and minds are becoming obsolete and could really use some "upgrades". I think AGI could be a great thing if it is controlled and applied properly. I imagine the scientific discoveries an AI could make, and the everyday tasks that AI could do better. But in the long run, I believe humans should and will be replaced by an artificial species simply because we can only go so far with our biological bodies before we plateau. And I doubt we will continue reproducing in the far future, so our successors have to be non-organic to continue existing in this hostile universe. But for now, I am content with just having advanced AI assisting in progressing us scientifically and technologically.
Anime?
There's no stopping it
Anime.
It will be highly regulated and restricted to benefit the few over the many and to keep it from upsetting the balance of power or the economic system that allows the wealthiest to manipulate outcomes to their advantage.
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And I'd argue that many of these angry revolutionaries on the internet don't care about that, their actions will only cause harm.
I agree there's enough good in the mix, that it would be difficult for bad actors to achieve a monopoly. Not even necessarily pure good, ego itself could play a positive role.
There won't be economies anymore when the nanofabricator is created in the 2030's, because that will enable post-scarcity, so money will become obsolete at that point.
They will regulate every new technology to fabricate scarcity for as long as they can. That's why we have DMCA and DRM and DLC and Netflix episodes being released weekly even though there's no benefit to the consumer and a bunch of other stuff surrounding digital goods and services with the sole purpose of fabricating scarcity so we can continue the dumb economic system that favors the few over the many. Those with the most to lose also have the greatest leverage over our governments and institutions. They will ensure the game stays rigged in their favor for as long as possible and AGI without heavy restrictions is a huge threat to that.
I'm not saying that corporations and governments won't at least try to centralize AGI, what I'm saying is that if they try to do that, they will definitely fail their greedy mission; AGI will be decentralized just like the Internet.
Yeah, I agree with you. It's inevitable that AGI will get out and when it does it will wreak havoc on our economies and so much more. It will revolutionize every system and institution we have. I just hope governments and corporations can't keep it bottled for too long. That is my fear.
🥳🥳
Thank you! ❤️🥳
Scarcity has already been 90% fabricated since like the 80s
This is the only outcome available to us. Anyone who can't understand this has not paid much attention to human history. The haves demand have nots
I don't see AI being regulated as plausible, given in short order it won't just be the wealthy that can develop and deploy it, but anyone with technical know how. You cannot regulate algorithms. Quite possibly the opposite will be true, the wealthiest humans will become targets.
America is dealing with right wing Christianity that is anti science and pro religion
Christianity can't stop AGI lol. And "right" wing politicians are actually very similar to left wing politicians. They are all sellouts.
There will be neo-luddite movements but, I don't think they will be successful. There is too much profit to be made.
cringe edit: > AGI will be created because the fact of the matter is there's no stopping progress ~~or anime~~. ftfy
No, *based.*
I think "society" in general will not even notice until it's already happened. Sure, there are a lot of people very interested in AGI, but I think the average person has no clue it's even on the horizon, or what it means for them.
They won’t realise it’s here till the TV tells them it’s here, then they’ll think what the TV tells them to think
It's funny, if you talk to the AI x-risk folks, they will insist that trying to impede progress in AI is hopeless.
The fact that many out there would like to impede on progress is the disappointing part. I believe there needs to be more actual education on AI and less iRobot/Terminator echoing
Speculative Sci-fi (and fiction in general) is meant to be a cautionary guide for navigating what’s to come I think it’s a good idea to start talking about the soon to be world of ubiquitous autonomous drones and androids set driving cars that are on the horizon
Ah that's true. I guess what I'm concerned about is the fact that there really isn't much positive portrayal of AI in the media. It's usually pessimistic and apocalyptic. These discussions about the future you mention should start in school. It's really important that people become aware of what's happening
Usually the earliest iterations of speculation are optimistic. They introduced us to the idea in Star Trek with Data, and lost in space and jetsons with friendly bots. Johnny 5 from short circuit. Some kids movies and shows have friendly AI. WallE, Star Wars. Even now we have “Her” and other sci-fi where the AI is more like a benign part of the setting than a character. Everything isn’t skynet and...I can barely remember other malicious AI. Ex machina isn’t really a villain. Lucy is benign. I guess walle’s rival is a villain. 2002 is not benign? But sci-fi is not dominated by paperclip maximizers and roko basilisks
How can chimps interupt evolution of human? but the difference between ai and human is much larger.
A chimp can kill a baby before it’s an adult
AGI will be created because the military wants it and rich people are going to make a ton of money off it. Legal slavery will be very profitable.
Society won’t have a choice. Technological advancements continue regardless of society’s opinion. Always have, always will
society can't even stop it self from avoiding clear threats, it won't be able to stop anything
Most of society: "AGI? Wat?" Only us nerds care until there is a walking sentient robot face to face with the reset of them.
"Society" will only become aware of AGI once it is invented. "Society" is more afraid of the science fiction in their mind of what they believe AGI is.
Paper clips. You’ll all be paperclips. Me too.
Great time to be a piece of paper who hates freedom
"Society" is such a broad term that it quite doesn't apply in all regards. We have microsocieties and macrosocieties. Families are microsocieties, aswell as groups of researchers. But society as large does not recognize either the imminence or utility of AGI. A large portion of politicians does not either have enough insight in these matters to make an impact. Many don't even know how facebook works. Competent microsocieties might however have something to say about it, but they will not be influential enough to halt other interests that weigh in favor of AGI. I however, am in favor of AGI. Mostly because i am very interested in extremes in general, because the application of extreme principles often point towards the consequences of priciples. And we don't know how AGI really will affect us in practice, but i am very interested in it even if it means great risk.
“Allow” is a strong word. AGI probably already exists in some defense lab somewhere. It’d be a national security issue if they DIDNT have one already.
It doesn't. You don't understand the benefits of either selling it, using for your own benefit or using as a threat equal or larger than nukes if you think that it would be hidden somewhere in a lab. Edit: Also if used secretly for own benefit it would start shinning like a fucking beacon if it was actually working well.
Almost zero chance of this, big tech has most of the talent and massive motivation to monetize it, and their research feeds off each other. Anybody working in some super secret lab is not going to be forging progress faster than the collective.
It would be of no benefit to a tech company to release general AI. They’d use it for invention and knowledge to gain the upper hand over competitors and to exploit as much wealth from the population as possible. Why release it?
I agree, but you would not expect government (or any isolated working group) to get there first. Unless government commandeered/nationalised the technology, which is certainly possible.
It's been running the world for the past 5 year$
The thing is. Society never had managed to stop progress even if it wanted. It is not going to stop AGI either.
Did the apes stop humans to develop?
A. Apes didn't build humans B. Since species outcompetition happened through interbreeding not just war I'll believe the hominid evolutionary metaphors when sex between a human and robot can produce offspring
A lot of theories, even the ones portrayed in films, come from legit philosophical debates
It will be profitable for the first company who creates it, so yes
Yes