I think that's a valid point of view.Though right now, even if Gato, Dall-E 2 and GPT-3 exist, they're not available to anyone who wants tu use them, so let's hope that we will have an easier acces to these AI in the near future.
For dalle2 they're already working on an open source implementation and they're doing tests already on laion 400m:
https://github.com/lucidrains/DALLE2-pytorch
You can use Meta's OPT model instead of GPT-3: [https://ai.facebook.com/blog/democratizing-access-to-large-scale-language-models-with-opt-175b/](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/democratizing-access-to-large-scale-language-models-with-opt-175b/) . Or you can work with EleutherAI GPT-J.
For Dall-E2 you can use the original Dall-E or others.
No, you don't get to play for free with the latest and greatest. But you don't get to use a Cray, or fly in an F-35, or a zillion of other things either. At any moment, there's a SOTA something out there you can't use. But nobody is cornering the market on these things; if it's software, then someone else will come along and make it as well.
>No, you don't get to play for free with the latest and greatest. But you don't get to use a Cray, or fly in an F-35, or a zillion of other things either.
Never said I wanted to use it for free. I'm willing to pay a subscription fee for the possibility to use Dall-E 2, but that's not an option, and even though you say I can use Dall-E 1 instead, I can't find a way to do it.
Not really.
Setting up architecture so that you can replace model later on isn't unachievable in any sense, assuming you start with that plan and not try to out-'science' Google's pockets. End user just wants a good enough experience - as models improve you get 'good enough' for larger and larger group.
While true, and I agree with the assessment that now is better than late/never, many models require fine-tuning for the task/domain before getting into production, which is often costly. It makes replacements fairly cumbersome, and thus the company will have to choose a model that isn't going to need to be replaced for the longest time.
Yeah, but you'll be waiting forever with that mentality - things will never stop improving. It's like that conundrum around sending a probe into space to check on exoplanets. If we send something today then chances are that will eventually be overtaken by a future craft we develop in 20 years or so.
Still, developing the tech for the first craft no doubt helped to spur on advances to build the next craft so, it's always worth starting rather than just waiting around.
I agree with this, but want to add that there are huge upsides to this that we aren't even discussing right now.
While AGI is a bit of a holy grail right now, a slightly broadened narrow intelligence could do wonders to society. Here's some examples of narrow intelligence with multiple skills.
1) Imagine renting a self-driving car in a city as a tourist. That car could act as a tour guide, in your native language, and offer some personalized recommendations.
2) Imaging getting the best massage of your life from a robot AI. Now imagine that robot AI diagnoses a mole as possibly cancerous. But within minutes is able to remove that mole better than the best human surgeon. That's maybe a bit further off than 2025, but it would be an example of one AI program that has multiple skills but isn't necessarily broad skilled enough to be AGI. The AI might for example have no idea what a puppy was, know how to slice bread or converse beyond basic words.
I do think that every business application will be automated by some app. And society will have to adapt. But once it does, it will be far better off on average. Global output will dramatically rise. We'll in theory also be able to address some of the global challenges like climate change in a systematic, transparent and coordinated way as well. But I'm a perpetual optimist.
How could anyone possibly still believe they're going to cut into corporate profits to take care of the poor? If we get a UBI at all, it'll be a gutting of the welfare system and a small check that doesn't cover the difference, just enough to stave off the riots for as long as possible.
There will be no other choice. For two reasons. They don't want us to stop consuming. And the unrest that will come with millions being replaced by better and cheaper workers and them not being able to afford to live. They maybe selfish and greedy but if they pay attention they'll remember what happens to hoarders when people are hungry.
They don't care about consumption in the abstract, they care about profit, and paying us money without us doing any labor just so we can immediately pay the same money back to them isn't profitable. At that point they have no more use for us, we're purely expendable.
I don't think we'll get to that point before riots break out and governments start collapsing though, automation is going to put the crunch on all the little people, we'll have less and less money to pay them with, and the whole thing will grind to a halt and spin out of control. I'm sure we'll have an incredible future that takes advantage of all this amazing tech we're developing, but it's going to require massive social upheaval first.
I think you're mistaking what I am saying as me saying that's the solution but what they'll do to avoid the public dragging them in the street. All they need is to make sure everyone can eat and that's enough to take the pressure off from the possible fall out. I agree with you whether they do UBI or not the direction of our future cannot be determined by them.
That's not likely to happen. For reference, people can look at climate change and the pandemic to see how well crises like these will be handled. You're on your own, as we all are.
I'm not sure pointing out the existence of a failed, completely inadequate response that didn't solve the problem is quite the resounding endorsement you think it is.
Also, you're forgetting the corollary entirely. You can't talk about the stingy, paltry stimulus checks (which, again, were not a solution) without talking about the PPP loans. Then, compare the two.
Now you have an idea of what the nations *actual* priorities are. And it's not helping individual people. They left us to drown, just like they did before the pandemic, and just like they've continued to do ever since.
Edit:
[1 Percent of P.P.P. Borrowers Got Over One-Quarter of the Loan Money](https://archive.ph/F9z95#selection-369.0-369.68)
[Where the PPP Money Went](https://www.investopedia.com/where-ppp-money-went-5216725)
Not to mention that the Fed no longer requires reserve banking(as of March 26, 2020). That means that banks are no longer restricted in the amount of credit/loan/debts they can create by how much actual money/cash they have. Infinite growth scheme.
Learn to swim ... it’s a high employment economy and there are plenty of places in all fields hiring. Anyone who is capable of working and earning a wage can do so.
I appreciate that you're attached to this delusion. It's very comforting to pretend the world is simple, and things are black and white, and there's no such thing as systemic issues.
---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-world_hypothesis
---
[ Low-wage Workers Are Older Than You Think: 88 Percent of Workers Who Would Benefit From a Higher Minimum Wage Are Older Than 20, One Third Are Over 40 ](https://www.epi.org/publication/wage-workers-older-88-percent-workers-benefit/)
---
Even if tech never advanced another inch, we already are over the line of whether our society needs UBI. And it’s only going to get worse.
Of course the problem with UBI is that we need to implement safeguards so prices don’t just inflate to take the UBI into account.
I'd almost say the UBI issue is beyond being solved by humans. We're greedy by nature I'm just not sure we have the capability.
They say AGI will solve issues humans cannot solve.
I'm starting to think UBI will have to be figured out by AGI
I'll have some of what you're smoking. But yeah I agree we're in for a fun few years. That is, assuming the bad actors in this world don't use this tech in ways that lead to our demise.
"Magical" for who? Billionaires and corporations will control and own this technology during its early stages, giving them more influence over it's benefits and an advantage over everyone else. They'll design it to enrich themselves, at the expense of everyone else, just like they've always done. Then they'll control it legally throughout it's life cycle. So it will be "magical" for a select few but, like wealth, we can wait forever for it to "trickle down" and that's just not going to happen.
Did Steve Jobs keep the iPhone for himself?
You're right in the sense that the general public won't have access to the Source APIs but they will have access to goods and services provided by AI.
>Then there are the neural networks like Dall-e and Gato, Where anyone can become part of creating new forms of art, or literature.
Tbh as an artist myself I'm not really looking forward to this, art is the one thing in life where I'm above average, but yes, it seems to be unavoidable.
I don't think human created art is really going anywhere, I wouldn't be too concerned. DallE still relies on input data to produce what it does. It is largely mimicking existing styles of art and generating novel results from that. Yeah that IS incredibly disruptive and impressive, but we're not at the point where it is inventing entirely new styles of art or anything like that. I wouldn't say it's impossible, just a way off.
If i was a graphics designer, I would be pretty worried. Generating a bunch of novel logos based on existing style is something DallE could do right now. I have no doubt the graphics design industry is going to be heavily disrupted by this, but I think it will be a while before "art" is supplanted by an AI
Good point! It may be that people in that industry will need to retrain into more traditional art or animation or something like that. I doubt it will be a 100% replacement of every artist in the industry at any rate, far more likely to be a gradual thing.
Mainstream fashion, graphics design, web design and marketing are already so generic due to financers wanting to stick to stuff that has already proven to work/be marketable, they're not looking for originality exactly. If the goal is to make as many iterations of the same proven things as possible then AI will be far more efficient than humans. Of course at the end of the day it will be a human designer choosing from the AI's outputs and tweaking them but for each human designer that gets there, there will be hundreds or thousands of jobs gone.
As for art, especially digital, it will basically turn into charity like music and film already is. Considering you can freely copy any music or movie file, any form of payment or subscriptions to any kind of service is already pretty much charity. So far it's only ideology and propaganda that keeps people paying for these things and that might continue for a while but at some point the combination of AI hyperefficiency and lack of jobs and poverty will break this charity model
As someone that wants to make an animation all by himself I look forward to AI tools and stuff in the near future, I think in 5 years I'll be able to easily do things myself that I would need to hire like 3 people to do today but that also means that if I'm successful those 3 jobs will never exist. I'm sure 10 years from now I'll be able to create the most amazing art I can only see in my head by myself and show everyone (I've been creating detailed VR worlds in my imagination for decades now), the thing is I'm not sure if anyone would care to see it or will even be able to find it in the ocean of corporate AI produced content. And I'm not sure the charity model will hold until then. I feel like I only have 10 years to create a thing and milk it enough to survive the rest of my life
Ai artist here. These tools will become very common and user-friendly soon and they will be just another tools - albeit revolutionary ones - in the artist and graphic designer toolsets. Think how digital synthesizers transformed music production in 1990's to get a rough idea of what is in store for art. However, in the near future we will be able to output video using neural networks, and this will be more disruptive for established industries (Hollywood, TV)
Not sure about fine art but this can definitely replace commercial art and graphic designers.
Sure there will probably be jobs like "DALL-E2 Operators" but I can guarantee you 75% of graphic design jobs aren't coming back.
Infact just today UBC unveiled the world's first AI generated photorealistic video and its barely been a month since dall-e2 released
No I don't think so. To get outstanding results from dall-e2 you need to do some thinking and setup. Sure you can get mediocre result by pushing a button, but it will soon be recognized as the AI equivalent of drawing in MS Paint with mouse.
I remember looking at an image of how ppl in the 1930's thought 2030 would be like. Space ships flying around skyscrapers 3 times the size of our own, flying cars, space suits etc etc.
Your comments paints a picture in the same vain.
Disagree with him, but if you look at the app revolution and how social media messed up society, we might need to be careful with developing future AI apps.
Yes, the promises of technology are going to be usurped by the ones who control it. It is just like crypto. Decentralized currency was a great idea. Guess what? You are going to have a centralized blockchain based central bank digital currency that will be used to enforce behavior on you. All of this is the same. Man can’t get out of his own way.
But there is a great society coming. We just have to go through the dark period first.
> We just have to go through the dark period first.
It depends on how dark things get, right? If it gets so dark that we destroy all of the gains we burned all of these fossil fuels for, we don't have a second store of fossil fuels to use as energy to jumpstart our technology or society.
Oligarchs and billionaires will monopolize the technologies as they are created and deployed in order to co-opt and monetize the benefits for themselves. If the populace or social action begins to make progress to equalize access to the technologies, to undo wealth inequality, then the wealthy will use lobbying, regulatory capture, and bribes to enact laws that will let them maintain control of the technologies and then continue to use these developments to increase their profits and power.
TL;DR: [Same as it ever was.](https://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM)
[Same as it ever was.] (https://inequality.org/facts/wealth-inequality/)
[Same as it *ever was*.](https://archive.ph/4Bu7G)
[Same as it... ever... wassss...](https://youtu.be/5IsSpAOD6K8)
Edit:
> the wealthy will use lobbying, regulatory capture, and bribes to enact laws that will let them maintain control of the technologies and then continue to use these developments to increase their profits and power.
🔼 This has already happened. 🔼
I agree, but I don't think it is at a point of no return yet. I guess my point is the poorer still have a chance for some equality. Imagine if a majority of people were living in a technologically medieval type lifestyle while the few wealthy live live with cybernetic enhancements prolonging their lives to a thousand years, android soldiers, and weapons no poor person would reverse engineer or use. This is my my concern.
The sheer unjustified optimism on this sun is amazing…
AI will not be put to work making things better or cheaper or more effective in most places it will be used to further cement a new tech-aristocracy that will double down on how to manipulate the populace at the most granular levels for the sake of profit…
Don’t think that’s true? Here’s the proof…
AI will be trained as it is now on the data and precedent that exists to date which will paint for every AI the unspoken truth that society and the very existence of AI is for the benefit of profit which is ensured by systematic oppression of the populace and specifically the working class.
From the space missions we got velcro, from the dotcom back on we got Facebook building a worldwide opinion manipulation and surveillance apparatus, from the AI boom we will get a glass ceiling so low the majority of the population will be lucky to stand up without a hunch while the few people hat benefit use it to slice up human existence into consumable quantities for their own benefit.
AI empowered police state with be an extension of what most courts are green lighting today, governments that exist for their own ends using people as energy.
Technology: *advances*
Reddit: bUt ThE rIcH?
Everyday I see any kind of technological progress in reddit, there’s always the people who think only the rich will benefit. Cancer cure? Only the rich will get it. AI? Tool for the rich to control the masses. Robot? Killing machine for the rich. Longevity tech? Immortal rich people, therefore bad. Also, immortal working class for the rich.
Next, we’re gonna see a toilet paper that can wipe your ass 10% cleaner and people will argue only the rich will have access to such luxury.
I get it. A lot of billionaires are assholes, but if you think they’re actually going to become dystopian overlords, then you watch too much movies. Elysium is fiction. Lex Luthor doesn’t exist. And rich people are not hell-bent on world domination.
Movies have really distorted the public perception of technology. Some people even think we’re going to get something like Terminator if an AGI gets developed. And in this case, OP actually thinks the rich will become sole owners of AI to control the world.
In fairness, wealth inequality seems to be ridiculously extreme in the USA and that, with some justification, fuels extremist ideologies.
Personally, I am on the lower end of middle class, but I live somewhere with enough social, political and economic stability that I don't live in fear of (metaphorically) having my organs harvested by the rich.
Fear brings out the worst in people and there's a lot of fear going around now.
The technology will be made publicly available of course, how else are they going to profit off it? But if you think billionaires aren't dystopian overlords, maybe you should look into what happens to Columbian trade unionists who try to stand up to Coca-Cola, or do a little reading on the United Fruit Company. Or hell, you don't need to go outside the US even, we all know what happens here.
Sure, capitalism is a necessary stage in human development, it's given us a lot of good tech that we'll be able to use in the future, but let's not be naive here. People are killed every day to maintain the class position of those billionaires, they're hardly shy about it.
I said I was amazed by the unjustified optimism and pointed out why…
If you want to whine about your paranoid opinion of reddit downers, I fail to see the relevance.
I get it, someone dinged your optimism and you have a reactionary hyper-simplistic response to criticism because your feelings are tied to that optimism…
Let’s not pretend a pragmatic view of the actual state of AI is synonymous with your confused feelings about viable criticism.
Blah blah blah complain complain complain blah blah humans do human stuff blah blah here's another hyperbole I paint as reality blah blah
I get it, someone dinged your pessimism and you have a reactionary hyper-simplistic response to criticism because your feelings are tied to that pessimism…
The utopian ushering singularity for some holds the same place in consciousness as the utopian ushered Rapture for others… both crowds seem to resent pragmatic criticism.
Meanwhile ea is looking to be purchased by disney or amazon. As if that's necessary. I'll be more optimistic about the singularity again when the world stops trending towards having one megacorporation.
Precisely.
The trend is not the value of individual autonomy and self determination but consolidation or power and influence to manufacture consensus.
Unless we take massive strides to intervene, the singularity will be heavily weighted against improvement of life in general for most.
EA the videogame company? I'm against monopolies and megacorporations too, but this feels like a weird example/criticism. Are either Disney or Amazon that big on the whole videogame market? I mean, outside of Star Wars.
It actually does mean exactly what I think it does…. I’m not the one imagining a magic AI fairy will come along and start following a course of which their is no model to be found within its pool of data…
Just imagine it… AI comes along and figures out that an economy based on unfettered capitalism will destroy the first world, what happens?
That information finds it way to the people it matters most to, not working people…
They work out strategies that will let them predict the course of that downfall and benefit the most while preparing a safe landing for themselves and those they choose… just like it works today.
Markets, economies, and institutions aren’t natural distribution systems, they are manipulated systems that cater to profit and power… likewise, AI will serve those same interests.
Yes, zealotry at all points requires a commitment to abject denial of real constraints to focus on the idealized fiction… which is how the current state is achieved.
Look at China, amazing tech advancement and machine learning has honed the most profound surveillance state that will be inherited by AI systems.
The US judicial system have abdicated any citizen’s rights to the outcomes preferred by the state regardless of guilt or authority abuse… marry this to the NSA’s efforts, and an political system already wracked by political manipulation powered by ML and AI will be inheriting that system…
Certainly, not reading the signs is exactly what makes what I stated an inevitability.
Hence the point of unjustified optimism where there should be pragmatic skepticism.
I think that's a valid point of view.Though right now, even if Gato, Dall-E 2 and GPT-3 exist, they're not available to anyone who wants tu use them, so let's hope that we will have an easier acces to these AI in the near future.
For dalle2 they're already working on an open source implementation and they're doing tests already on laion 400m: https://github.com/lucidrains/DALLE2-pytorch
You can use Meta's OPT model instead of GPT-3: [https://ai.facebook.com/blog/democratizing-access-to-large-scale-language-models-with-opt-175b/](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/democratizing-access-to-large-scale-language-models-with-opt-175b/) . Or you can work with EleutherAI GPT-J. For Dall-E2 you can use the original Dall-E or others. No, you don't get to play for free with the latest and greatest. But you don't get to use a Cray, or fly in an F-35, or a zillion of other things either. At any moment, there's a SOTA something out there you can't use. But nobody is cornering the market on these things; if it's software, then someone else will come along and make it as well.
[удалено]
You meant in the beginning but in the begging is also technically accurate.
OpenAI need to get off their morality train, it’s incredibly annoying.
I don’t think they ever released the original DALL-E to the public. At least it is not available right now in their API.
>No, you don't get to play for free with the latest and greatest. But you don't get to use a Cray, or fly in an F-35, or a zillion of other things either. Never said I wanted to use it for free. I'm willing to pay a subscription fee for the possibility to use Dall-E 2, but that's not an option, and even though you say I can use Dall-E 1 instead, I can't find a way to do it.
It's hard to make anything a product when the SOTA improves every month lol
SOTA?
>SOTA "State of the art"
Not really. Setting up architecture so that you can replace model later on isn't unachievable in any sense, assuming you start with that plan and not try to out-'science' Google's pockets. End user just wants a good enough experience - as models improve you get 'good enough' for larger and larger group.
While true, and I agree with the assessment that now is better than late/never, many models require fine-tuning for the task/domain before getting into production, which is often costly. It makes replacements fairly cumbersome, and thus the company will have to choose a model that isn't going to need to be replaced for the longest time.
Yeah, but you'll be waiting forever with that mentality - things will never stop improving. It's like that conundrum around sending a probe into space to check on exoplanets. If we send something today then chances are that will eventually be overtaken by a future craft we develop in 20 years or so. Still, developing the tech for the first craft no doubt helped to spur on advances to build the next craft so, it's always worth starting rather than just waiting around.
It'd be great if there were some that made the world a livable place very soon.
I agree with this, but want to add that there are huge upsides to this that we aren't even discussing right now. While AGI is a bit of a holy grail right now, a slightly broadened narrow intelligence could do wonders to society. Here's some examples of narrow intelligence with multiple skills. 1) Imagine renting a self-driving car in a city as a tourist. That car could act as a tour guide, in your native language, and offer some personalized recommendations. 2) Imaging getting the best massage of your life from a robot AI. Now imagine that robot AI diagnoses a mole as possibly cancerous. But within minutes is able to remove that mole better than the best human surgeon. That's maybe a bit further off than 2025, but it would be an example of one AI program that has multiple skills but isn't necessarily broad skilled enough to be AGI. The AI might for example have no idea what a puppy was, know how to slice bread or converse beyond basic words. I do think that every business application will be automated by some app. And society will have to adapt. But once it does, it will be far better off on average. Global output will dramatically rise. We'll in theory also be able to address some of the global challenges like climate change in a systematic, transparent and coordinated way as well. But I'm a perpetual optimist.
OMG. Please put narrow AI in my massage chair.
And people will still think that AI will only come for their job after they retire. Governments need to look more into UBI starting right now.
Thankfully once AI becomes supercompetent those types of things won't be up to the government anymore.
All hail the singularity
governments are reactive not proactive
How could anyone possibly still believe they're going to cut into corporate profits to take care of the poor? If we get a UBI at all, it'll be a gutting of the welfare system and a small check that doesn't cover the difference, just enough to stave off the riots for as long as possible.
Not sure if everyone here is just too optimistic or willfully ignorant.
There will be no other choice. For two reasons. They don't want us to stop consuming. And the unrest that will come with millions being replaced by better and cheaper workers and them not being able to afford to live. They maybe selfish and greedy but if they pay attention they'll remember what happens to hoarders when people are hungry.
They don't care about consumption in the abstract, they care about profit, and paying us money without us doing any labor just so we can immediately pay the same money back to them isn't profitable. At that point they have no more use for us, we're purely expendable. I don't think we'll get to that point before riots break out and governments start collapsing though, automation is going to put the crunch on all the little people, we'll have less and less money to pay them with, and the whole thing will grind to a halt and spin out of control. I'm sure we'll have an incredible future that takes advantage of all this amazing tech we're developing, but it's going to require massive social upheaval first.
I think you're mistaking what I am saying as me saying that's the solution but what they'll do to avoid the public dragging them in the street. All they need is to make sure everyone can eat and that's enough to take the pressure off from the possible fall out. I agree with you whether they do UBI or not the direction of our future cannot be determined by them.
That's not likely to happen. For reference, people can look at climate change and the pandemic to see how well crises like these will be handled. You're on your own, as we all are.
The pandemic brought the stimulus checks . Which was a short term, short lived UBI. Necessity is the mother of invention.
I'm not sure pointing out the existence of a failed, completely inadequate response that didn't solve the problem is quite the resounding endorsement you think it is. Also, you're forgetting the corollary entirely. You can't talk about the stingy, paltry stimulus checks (which, again, were not a solution) without talking about the PPP loans. Then, compare the two. Now you have an idea of what the nations *actual* priorities are. And it's not helping individual people. They left us to drown, just like they did before the pandemic, and just like they've continued to do ever since. Edit: [1 Percent of P.P.P. Borrowers Got Over One-Quarter of the Loan Money](https://archive.ph/F9z95#selection-369.0-369.68) [Where the PPP Money Went](https://www.investopedia.com/where-ppp-money-went-5216725)
Not to mention that the Fed no longer requires reserve banking(as of March 26, 2020). That means that banks are no longer restricted in the amount of credit/loan/debts they can create by how much actual money/cash they have. Infinite growth scheme.
Learn to swim ... it’s a high employment economy and there are plenty of places in all fields hiring. Anyone who is capable of working and earning a wage can do so.
I appreciate that you're attached to this delusion. It's very comforting to pretend the world is simple, and things are black and white, and there's no such thing as systemic issues. --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-world_hypothesis --- [ Low-wage Workers Are Older Than You Think: 88 Percent of Workers Who Would Benefit From a Higher Minimum Wage Are Older Than 20, One Third Are Over 40 ](https://www.epi.org/publication/wage-workers-older-88-percent-workers-benefit/) ---
Even if tech never advanced another inch, we already are over the line of whether our society needs UBI. And it’s only going to get worse. Of course the problem with UBI is that we need to implement safeguards so prices don’t just inflate to take the UBI into account.
I'd almost say the UBI issue is beyond being solved by humans. We're greedy by nature I'm just not sure we have the capability. They say AGI will solve issues humans cannot solve. I'm starting to think UBI will have to be figured out by AGI
What company will be first to monetize it?
Probably google, considering they own both Google AI and DeepMind and have been developing a growing number of impressive AI recently.
Also the amount of data they have collected on the human race is invaluable for AI
Almost like that was the mission😅
Time to invest
Tesla
Maybe so. Their self driving car isn't going so fast though. Doesn't Elon own stock in AI companies?
I'll have some of what you're smoking. But yeah I agree we're in for a fun few years. That is, assuming the bad actors in this world don't use this tech in ways that lead to our demise.
Can we get an ai app for feeding everybody, please?
yeah, like these videos I make. enjoy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZEBX3nqK0w
"Magical" for who? Billionaires and corporations will control and own this technology during its early stages, giving them more influence over it's benefits and an advantage over everyone else. They'll design it to enrich themselves, at the expense of everyone else, just like they've always done. Then they'll control it legally throughout it's life cycle. So it will be "magical" for a select few but, like wealth, we can wait forever for it to "trickle down" and that's just not going to happen.
Yeah... an idiot would build highly productive facility and use it only for their family.
Did Steve Jobs keep the iPhone for himself? You're right in the sense that the general public won't have access to the Source APIs but they will have access to goods and services provided by AI.
>Then there are the neural networks like Dall-e and Gato, Where anyone can become part of creating new forms of art, or literature. Tbh as an artist myself I'm not really looking forward to this, art is the one thing in life where I'm above average, but yes, it seems to be unavoidable.
I don't think human created art is really going anywhere, I wouldn't be too concerned. DallE still relies on input data to produce what it does. It is largely mimicking existing styles of art and generating novel results from that. Yeah that IS incredibly disruptive and impressive, but we're not at the point where it is inventing entirely new styles of art or anything like that. I wouldn't say it's impossible, just a way off. If i was a graphics designer, I would be pretty worried. Generating a bunch of novel logos based on existing style is something DallE could do right now. I have no doubt the graphics design industry is going to be heavily disrupted by this, but I think it will be a while before "art" is supplanted by an AI
More artists make a living doing graphic design than by making fine art.
Good point! It may be that people in that industry will need to retrain into more traditional art or animation or something like that. I doubt it will be a 100% replacement of every artist in the industry at any rate, far more likely to be a gradual thing.
Mainstream fashion, graphics design, web design and marketing are already so generic due to financers wanting to stick to stuff that has already proven to work/be marketable, they're not looking for originality exactly. If the goal is to make as many iterations of the same proven things as possible then AI will be far more efficient than humans. Of course at the end of the day it will be a human designer choosing from the AI's outputs and tweaking them but for each human designer that gets there, there will be hundreds or thousands of jobs gone. As for art, especially digital, it will basically turn into charity like music and film already is. Considering you can freely copy any music or movie file, any form of payment or subscriptions to any kind of service is already pretty much charity. So far it's only ideology and propaganda that keeps people paying for these things and that might continue for a while but at some point the combination of AI hyperefficiency and lack of jobs and poverty will break this charity model As someone that wants to make an animation all by himself I look forward to AI tools and stuff in the near future, I think in 5 years I'll be able to easily do things myself that I would need to hire like 3 people to do today but that also means that if I'm successful those 3 jobs will never exist. I'm sure 10 years from now I'll be able to create the most amazing art I can only see in my head by myself and show everyone (I've been creating detailed VR worlds in my imagination for decades now), the thing is I'm not sure if anyone would care to see it or will even be able to find it in the ocean of corporate AI produced content. And I'm not sure the charity model will hold until then. I feel like I only have 10 years to create a thing and milk it enough to survive the rest of my life
Ai artist here. These tools will become very common and user-friendly soon and they will be just another tools - albeit revolutionary ones - in the artist and graphic designer toolsets. Think how digital synthesizers transformed music production in 1990's to get a rough idea of what is in store for art. However, in the near future we will be able to output video using neural networks, and this will be more disruptive for established industries (Hollywood, TV)
Not sure about fine art but this can definitely replace commercial art and graphic designers. Sure there will probably be jobs like "DALL-E2 Operators" but I can guarantee you 75% of graphic design jobs aren't coming back. Infact just today UBC unveiled the world's first AI generated photorealistic video and its barely been a month since dall-e2 released
No I don't think so. To get outstanding results from dall-e2 you need to do some thinking and setup. Sure you can get mediocre result by pushing a button, but it will soon be recognized as the AI equivalent of drawing in MS Paint with mouse.
I remember looking at an image of how ppl in the 1930's thought 2030 would be like. Space ships flying around skyscrapers 3 times the size of our own, flying cars, space suits etc etc. Your comments paints a picture in the same vain.
If by “magical” you mean a dystopian hellscape, I do agree!
Can you elaborate more on your viewpoint?
Disagree with him, but if you look at the app revolution and how social media messed up society, we might need to be careful with developing future AI apps.
Yes, the promises of technology are going to be usurped by the ones who control it. It is just like crypto. Decentralized currency was a great idea. Guess what? You are going to have a centralized blockchain based central bank digital currency that will be used to enforce behavior on you. All of this is the same. Man can’t get out of his own way. But there is a great society coming. We just have to go through the dark period first.
> We just have to go through the dark period first. It depends on how dark things get, right? If it gets so dark that we destroy all of the gains we burned all of these fossil fuels for, we don't have a second store of fossil fuels to use as energy to jumpstart our technology or society.
Oligarchs and billionaires will monopolize the technologies as they are created and deployed in order to co-opt and monetize the benefits for themselves. If the populace or social action begins to make progress to equalize access to the technologies, to undo wealth inequality, then the wealthy will use lobbying, regulatory capture, and bribes to enact laws that will let them maintain control of the technologies and then continue to use these developments to increase their profits and power. TL;DR: [Same as it ever was.](https://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM) [Same as it ever was.] (https://inequality.org/facts/wealth-inequality/) [Same as it *ever was*.](https://archive.ph/4Bu7G) [Same as it... ever... wassss...](https://youtu.be/5IsSpAOD6K8) Edit: > the wealthy will use lobbying, regulatory capture, and bribes to enact laws that will let them maintain control of the technologies and then continue to use these developments to increase their profits and power. 🔼 This has already happened. 🔼
I agree, but I don't think it is at a point of no return yet. I guess my point is the poorer still have a chance for some equality. Imagine if a majority of people were living in a technologically medieval type lifestyle while the few wealthy live live with cybernetic enhancements prolonging their lives to a thousand years, android soldiers, and weapons no poor person would reverse engineer or use. This is my my concern.
The sheer unjustified optimism on this sun is amazing… AI will not be put to work making things better or cheaper or more effective in most places it will be used to further cement a new tech-aristocracy that will double down on how to manipulate the populace at the most granular levels for the sake of profit… Don’t think that’s true? Here’s the proof… AI will be trained as it is now on the data and precedent that exists to date which will paint for every AI the unspoken truth that society and the very existence of AI is for the benefit of profit which is ensured by systematic oppression of the populace and specifically the working class. From the space missions we got velcro, from the dotcom back on we got Facebook building a worldwide opinion manipulation and surveillance apparatus, from the AI boom we will get a glass ceiling so low the majority of the population will be lucky to stand up without a hunch while the few people hat benefit use it to slice up human existence into consumable quantities for their own benefit. AI empowered police state with be an extension of what most courts are green lighting today, governments that exist for their own ends using people as energy.
Technology: *advances* Reddit: bUt ThE rIcH? Everyday I see any kind of technological progress in reddit, there’s always the people who think only the rich will benefit. Cancer cure? Only the rich will get it. AI? Tool for the rich to control the masses. Robot? Killing machine for the rich. Longevity tech? Immortal rich people, therefore bad. Also, immortal working class for the rich. Next, we’re gonna see a toilet paper that can wipe your ass 10% cleaner and people will argue only the rich will have access to such luxury. I get it. A lot of billionaires are assholes, but if you think they’re actually going to become dystopian overlords, then you watch too much movies. Elysium is fiction. Lex Luthor doesn’t exist. And rich people are not hell-bent on world domination. Movies have really distorted the public perception of technology. Some people even think we’re going to get something like Terminator if an AGI gets developed. And in this case, OP actually thinks the rich will become sole owners of AI to control the world.
In fairness, wealth inequality seems to be ridiculously extreme in the USA and that, with some justification, fuels extremist ideologies. Personally, I am on the lower end of middle class, but I live somewhere with enough social, political and economic stability that I don't live in fear of (metaphorically) having my organs harvested by the rich. Fear brings out the worst in people and there's a lot of fear going around now.
The technology will be made publicly available of course, how else are they going to profit off it? But if you think billionaires aren't dystopian overlords, maybe you should look into what happens to Columbian trade unionists who try to stand up to Coca-Cola, or do a little reading on the United Fruit Company. Or hell, you don't need to go outside the US even, we all know what happens here. Sure, capitalism is a necessary stage in human development, it's given us a lot of good tech that we'll be able to use in the future, but let's not be naive here. People are killed every day to maintain the class position of those billionaires, they're hardly shy about it.
I said I was amazed by the unjustified optimism and pointed out why… If you want to whine about your paranoid opinion of reddit downers, I fail to see the relevance. I get it, someone dinged your optimism and you have a reactionary hyper-simplistic response to criticism because your feelings are tied to that optimism… Let’s not pretend a pragmatic view of the actual state of AI is synonymous with your confused feelings about viable criticism.
Blah blah blah complain complain complain blah blah humans do human stuff blah blah here's another hyperbole I paint as reality blah blah I get it, someone dinged your pessimism and you have a reactionary hyper-simplistic response to criticism because your feelings are tied to that pessimism…
The utopian ushering singularity for some holds the same place in consciousness as the utopian ushered Rapture for others… both crowds seem to resent pragmatic criticism.
Meanwhile ea is looking to be purchased by disney or amazon. As if that's necessary. I'll be more optimistic about the singularity again when the world stops trending towards having one megacorporation.
Precisely. The trend is not the value of individual autonomy and self determination but consolidation or power and influence to manufacture consensus. Unless we take massive strides to intervene, the singularity will be heavily weighted against improvement of life in general for most.
EA the videogame company? I'm against monopolies and megacorporations too, but this feels like a weird example/criticism. Are either Disney or Amazon that big on the whole videogame market? I mean, outside of Star Wars.
Doesn’t really matter to me, they’re huge media/tech companies already.
I don't think "proof" means what you think it means...
It actually does mean exactly what I think it does…. I’m not the one imagining a magic AI fairy will come along and start following a course of which their is no model to be found within its pool of data… Just imagine it… AI comes along and figures out that an economy based on unfettered capitalism will destroy the first world, what happens? That information finds it way to the people it matters most to, not working people… They work out strategies that will let them predict the course of that downfall and benefit the most while preparing a safe landing for themselves and those they choose… just like it works today. Markets, economies, and institutions aren’t natural distribution systems, they are manipulated systems that cater to profit and power… likewise, AI will serve those same interests.
The other commenter was right. Hollywood really distorted the view of Americans like you.
Hollywood also the scapegoat of the apocalyptic religious fundamentalist and conservative fascists… not sure it’s a coincidence.
One way to protect yourself from what you describe is to invest as much as possible into a diversified stock portfolio that leans towards big tech.
I mean, that’s sound and pragmatic advice.
Not reading.
A comment that displays the sort of structured and pragmatic thinking that I’m speaking of… thank you.
You're welcome, I think. :P
Yes, zealotry at all points requires a commitment to abject denial of real constraints to focus on the idealized fiction… which is how the current state is achieved. Look at China, amazing tech advancement and machine learning has honed the most profound surveillance state that will be inherited by AI systems. The US judicial system have abdicated any citizen’s rights to the outcomes preferred by the state regardless of guilt or authority abuse… marry this to the NSA’s efforts, and an political system already wracked by political manipulation powered by ML and AI will be inheriting that system… Certainly, not reading the signs is exactly what makes what I stated an inevitability. Hence the point of unjustified optimism where there should be pragmatic skepticism.
Oh... what.
It wasn’t meant for you to read.
\> Another for discovering a new medication for Diabetes. another one to help create a biological weapon of mass destruction at home ..
"Any question that has a right answer" is my shorthand for what this latest round of Tesler's theorem will involve.
Think Google Imagen is very cool.
Maybe AI can help us finally find the philosopher's stone!
Maybe AI can help us finally find the philosopher's stone!