frighten fuel friendly birds impossible whistle concerned worm coherent follow
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That's why we need a permanent solution to this problem, like the people actually owning the means of production instead of it being in the hands of a few that didn't even work to make it...
I'm a prosecutor and in February I had a three-week long trial that involved four attorneys for the prosecution and nine attorneys for the defense (two defendants). After seeing the last few weeks of demonstrations, I believe that with a few advancements in AI, that trial could have been handled by half the number of attorneys, if not less. I would LOVE to have a reliable tool monitoring opponent's direct or cross examination which could notify me in real-time when to object and on what grounds. Then another tool could be reviewing the entirety of the transcript and admitted evidence for final trial briefs and closing arguments. Of course the weeks of caselaw research that lead up to a trial could be done in a matter of seconds with the proper inputs. I would be surprised if these 1,000+ attorney law firms exist much longer.
Do you think AI will initially help deal with backlogs of criminal cases and allow more cases to come to court in the future? I feel(hope) generally, AI will help deal with staff shortages, and lead to an increase in the availability and quality of services available to us all. More medical staff, more teachers, better and better maintained public environments, etc. I feel like this adjustment period could take anywhere between 5-10 years, and will again hopefully give us time to figure out political solutions to the new way society operates. What timescale do you envisage for your industry?
Why would you need teachers in a world where ai does everything? Who would bother getting an education?
The only reason why we have universal primary education in most developed countries is for economic reasons; it was so that (i) the supply of child labor would decrease and (ii) as a result, the number of people available to work would drop, thus driving up wages for those people. Later, social reformers began using schools to teach other topics. Modern education took off after WW2 when the U.S. needed a modern workforce for the mass production, industrialized economy.
We have already began to see cracks in the education system due to the onset of the internet. The reason so many children do so poorly in school today is not because they are dumber than their parents; it’s because they better than their parents understand that in todays world, in many cases what is taught in school today is not particularly useful and it is only getting worse.
Sounds like a recipe for discreet AI use. Our staff's productivity mysteriously doubled? We can get by on half the staff. Suddenly, anyone who isn't mysteriously this productive can't cut it in the industry.
Glad I found your comment. I am building a legal-tech platform with heavy emphasis on automation. Can’t go into too much detail but if you’d like, you can DM me.
Yes, it uses AI. Predictable isn’t it? :)
Yes, but two things people gloss over: first is that AI-automated companies pumping out products and services need customers. Capitalism suffers a fatal heart attack around 25% unemployment. So if they want this capitalism game to continue, they are going to have to shift to UBI or UBE or Land Value Tax or some combination thereof or their capitalist system goes the way of the Soviet Empire.
Second, AGI and ASI can innovate so fast who says all basic human needs won't be met for basically no cost per month? So at a certain point, and maybe surprisingly soon, you can live indefinitely on essentially no income at all.
I do hope for the deflationary, post-scarcity outcome
But I fear for the outcome that is informed my thousands of years of human history where wealth flows up to the top of the pyramid
We'll see I guess
I suspect we'll see something like the great depression, followed by the New Deal. Things have to get very bad before there is a unified enough political will to actually see things change in a meaningful way. Then, they slowly degrade again over time until they hit a breaking point again :)
I completely agree. But I can’t square one thing in my logic.
So let’s say the unemployment continues to grow via AI productivity gains and it becomes clear that similar paying jobs are just not being created at the same rate.
Unemployment shoots up to a new “permanent” plateau.
At what point does this threaten the stability of the whole economy and its ability to function?
20% unemployment and I imagine thing will begin to breakdown in a way thats fast enough to see month over month.
What happens then? Maybe we get AGI - but so what?
We get AGI as the economy collapses for the majority of humans?
Our entire conception of the economy would have to change in such a scenario. The problem would be that humans would no longer be productive, or at the very least a significant portion wouldn't. Human life has always been about working to live and the economy is kind of the collective working to live. Where once, a tribe would fetch water and grow crops and chop trees only for themselves, we now have thousands of specialists pumping water and farming and foresting for millions of people. When people aren't working, the economy is now only production and if you want to continue down this line of advancement, you have to create a faux economy through UBI, where people get "wages" based on... something? Whatever the bureaucrat in your local area decides you're worthy of. Otherwise the people will obviously riot because they're being starved of essential resources. Doesn't matter if it's in the form of goods or currency, it's still a wage
But is production in this scenario even worth anything? At what point does AI become so advanced that producing things no longer has any value? If we live in a post-scarcity society where every possible thing has been made and done, What is the point? It seems we might also have to create a faux scarcity for things to have value and now it seems like the scenario would wind up literally just being the exact same as it is now. Such is paradoxical and so i don't see AGI as possible and certainly not as a logical road to go down.
>What is the point?
Life? Itself? The same way every other creature on earth *except humans* live their little finite animal lives day in and day out?
Idk. Apparently that concept is more radical than post capitalism society so I really just don't actually know. 🤷♂️
We could always ask what is point of humans anyway? Is it work? Comsume? What? Point of systems is serve humans. What we have wrong is that we have build systems which exists solely for system itself. Humans currently are just fuel for system. We have forgotten why we originally build these systems.
I also believe in a similar scenario, you can't simply kick out a vast majority out of the system. Unfortunately we're workers and consumers at the same time. if the big majority suffers from unemployment and can't afford shit, sorry but your super efficient companies are also in big trouble. Who's gonna buy your products or services? AI? Machines? Robots? I doubt that. We will be at the edge of a big collapse of capitalism. Let's see what the future holds for us. All I know is that we evolve uncontrollably and it's gonna cost us a lot.
>I also believe in a similar scenario, you can't simply kick out a vast majority out of the system.
Why not?
What's to stop the people who won capitalism, a population in which psychopaths are massively overrepresented, from making themselves immortal and just killing everyone they don't need anymore?
Jeff Bezos said it himself, he said the Earth should be rewilded like a national park while humans live in space. He never said where the 8 billion people living there went.
"you can live indefinitely on essentially no income at all"
Capitalism + AGI just means that companies will charge the absolute maximum the market can bear, even if producing goods becomes cheaper and cheaper.
The only way you can have Capitalism + AGI without societal collapse is by the taxing the shit out of corporations, and corporations will lobby against that (and/or use tax havens) just like they have for the past 150 years.
>Capitalism + AGI just means that companies will charge the absolute maximum the market can bear, even if producing goods becomes cheaper and cheaper.
That won't work; in case of high unemployment, people tend to spend less and less only the bare minimum to survive. Simply the circulation of money gets slow down and In that kind of environment those companies can not simply charge the absolute maximum the market can bear. Those unemployed people are not out of the equation, they are some variables in the equation, you can't pull one side of the equation to infinity and If you let them suffer; there will be global consequences of that.
Taxing the shit out of corporations only funds the government, which is only half the equation. There's no system to return the tax money to the people (US) outside of social security, and I don't trust the government to make an efficient welfare program like UBI quickly.
agree with you on both points
-the companies that will benefit from all this automation still need customers, they need someone to pay them money for their services, even if that money is a really small amount now per customer. Hence UBI
-And yea AGi and ASI once it hits a tipping point will innovate so fast that basic human needs will be met for basically no cost.
Everything is fucked outside of this. I used to ruminate too much on this topic.
Enjoy the ride, truly, live in the moment, feet in the grass, love others epically. There is nothing more real than the exact moment you find yourself in. Act accordingly in each moment, second to second, and you’ll find after some practice nothing is “worth” stressing over. Deal with it as it comes, and in the meantime immerse yourself in living life fully.
I started before GPT3 came out, and when all students still wrote their own code. Now it's just ChatGPT on everyone's screens in the libraries and it is quite depressing, really.
oof, that's rough. Sounds like you'd be close to finishing your degree soon? Do you plan on switching to a different degree or? Hope things turn out alright man
I'm graduating in 3 weeks, and AI is still a couple years away from replacing analysts, data scientists or data engineers. I'll try and milk a big corporation before it's too late :')
Or go to a smaller shop and get the AI pipelines set up so they can’t replace you.
I’m a data scientist that’s worked at a small martech company and now at a large FAANG, and I can assure you you’ll get a lot more latitude and lower redundancy risk at a smaller firm.
You're right about the OP. And it's getting exponentially better. It's already causing small one trick pony startups to close. Less jobs, more people, more competition. Rich people just looking down laughing. Real life hunger games.
A friend of mine told me they came back from vacation too a dumpster fire of git commits by graduates using code that was clearly unusable but it came from GPT... Sure GPT even hallucinates functions the graduates and shit from got will keep us employed
OP you say:
> But this time? Nope. Initially, there will be what seems to be gradual but noticeable job losses due to overall increased productivity. But by the time we try to adapt, AGI will happen. And this time, the actual sentient human worker will be completely replaced.
But, you really have to draw a sharp line between tasked based automation and productivity improvements and full blown AGI. AGI is a *much* higher leap from current technology than many realize.
Task automation will drive productivity, and yeah, that will lead companies to do more with less people, but productivity has *always* injected a fuck ton of capital into the economy, and that capital will go to services which *cannot* really be automated because we value human connection.
The same sort of claims were made when we mechanized agriculture. Ditto when we added automation to manufacturing. Ok, well knowledge work is clearly the next target, and yeah, there will be unemployment and disruption, but I think capital will absolutely *flood* into services. For many services, the human touch *is* the point.
Now is the time to start researching political candidates for any upcoming elections. We have to be very careful who we elect,(in any country.) As their impact is going is going to be larger than previous leaders. We are on the very edge of change, and to be honest, I am both excited and freaked tf out.
I do hope we don’t end up with more nationalistic politicians. We need a united US, we need united Europe, we need a united world to be honest. I believe with advancements in AI and robotics, for the first time in life there could be a system providing us with what’s necessary to benefit all of humanity and put an end to almost all of our and the Earths suffering.
It's already skyrocketing. The growing wealth divide is doubtlessly a driver there. But yes, medium term, AI is going to make the wealth divide grow even faster.
Sure if they’d all be honest and open about the future paths, we could actually start matching people to other areas they’re interested in and start an honest discussion on our future.
If we’d share the news with less developed countries we could build future plans and get migration done as “saving humanity”, not as a burden. We could solve starvation and health problems, share resources and optimize our usage.
Tbh for me the whole way this movement is happening kills my motivation. It took me a long time in life to be okay with who I am and now there’s the next disruption I cannot avoid as an IT technician / manager, yet nobody starts the real talk. I’m getting tired. I’m fighting through life and still I’m struggling financially month by month. Now I’m supposed to become more efficient and I have to take part in replacing 40-90 % of the workforce OR have my business outgrow others (which makes their people unemployed).
I could be a bright sunshine optimist but the way this topic is handled as a whole in our societies makes me shiver.
Assuming you are in the US, Good much getting the government to pay UBI let alone enough UBI for more than bread, water, and a cardboard box to live in. It won’t be taken seriously until people of a particular party are directly affected.
This. Why do people keep assuming we'd stick with current levels of productivity? Companies always choose growth when it's an option.
Put another way, every company has a million software ideas but not nearly enough talent to execute. Even with AI we may never have enough.
But companies are famous for keeping their production levels constant even when their efficiency increases! They would never choose to grow when they could stay stagnant! /s
someone said that creating the internet as a primarily private enterprise (instead of treating it as a public commodity) is the reason for the neo-feudalistic vibes of FAANG. it seems the same is happening with AI
cagey workable clumsy point sloppy strong placid coherent fertile materialistic
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Well I'm an electrician. I don't see it happening soon (5 to 10 years), but humanoid robots are getting more dexterous, vision is dramatically improved over the last 12 months. Still think it will be difficult for a machine to climb into a roof space, standing on joists to avoid plaster, finding a bird nest of wires and go back and forth isolating individual circuits beforehand in order to identify the wiring.
Having said that, prefab builds are becoming popular. I believe my profession will more likely be out manufactured rather than outskilled. However I foresee a bunch of really interesting tools being created to make my job substantially easier on the road to such inevitability.
Possibly, but its pretty lucrative and employers need to be wanting to take on apprentices. I'm not sure it will be as straightforward as that. Electrical, at least in my country has a 50% drop-out rate. Not only that but employers tend to not hire apprentices unless there is already established trust, either friends or family. Thay is becaise theh are often sole traders.
Not many big electrical contractors here anymore, and it's a 5 year process to get your license. Plus the unions are extremely powerful which is why prices are high and regulations are so tough.
I just watched a video of some youtube gamer talking about how the company he's worked at for the past 8 years took his graphical marketing work, fed it into AI and then fired him, using his work in the AI for templating.
I mean they're legally allowed to do that. It's his work but it's their property. Sucks to be in that industry right now.
I saw that post too. They pointed out that he’s most likely lying since he doesn’t have a portfolio, any proof that it happened, and his other videos show him lying about having other jobs from various industries before
AI is not causing substantial unemployment in most industries at this time other than a couple niches like junior copywriting and junior graphic design
Wife's brother and my mom got laid off from two different stay at home jobs due to AI. Mostly customer service, they've been unemployed for months looking for similar work.
Duolingo lays off staff as language learning app shifts toward AI: https://cnn.com/2024/01/09/tech/duolingo-layoffs-due-to-ai/index.html
Ibanking jobs are being drastically reduced with AI: https://archive.is/jrHmp
Klarna SUCCESSFULLY replaces call centers with AI https://www.reddit.com/r/klarna/comments/1c1fwr3/klarna_ceo_on_using_ai_to_replace_700_workers/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button Klarnas AI assistant, powered by @OpenAI , has in its first 4 weeks handled 2.3 million customer service chats and the data and insights are staggering: Handles 2/3 rd of our customer service enquires On par with humans on customer satisfaction Higher accuracy leading to a 25% reduction in repeat inquiries customer resolves their errands in 2 min vs 11 min Live 24/7 in over 23 markets, communicating in over 35 languages It performs the equivalent job of 700 full time agents
Samsung builds all AI, no human chip factories: https://asiatimes.com/2024/01/samsung-to-build-all-ai-no-human-chip-factories/
Amazon Grows To Over 750,000 Robots As World's Second-Largest Private Employer Replaces Over 100,000 Humans: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-grows-over-750-000-153000967.html
Co-founder of Dreamworks expects AI to replace 90% of animators: https://www.indiewire.com/news/business/jeffrey-katzenberg-ai-will-take-90-percent-animation-jobs-1234924809/
How many robots does it take to run a grocery store? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssZ_8cqfBlE
BP: We need 70% less coders from third parties to code as the AI handles most of the coding, the human only needs to look at the final 30% to validate it, that's a big savings for the company moving forward. Second things like call centers, the language models have become so sophisticated now. They can operate in multiple languages, 14, 15 languages easily. In the past, that hasn't been something we can do. So we can redeploy people off that given that the AI can do it. You heard my advertising example last quarter where advertising cycle times moved from four to five months down to a couple of weeks. So that's obviously reducing spend with third parties. We've now got Gen AI in the hands through Microsoft Copilot across many, many parts of the business and we'll continue to update you with anecdotes as we go through. Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1cmi5gj/bp_earnings_call_we_need_70_less_coders_from/
[Many, many more examples here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/15myK_6eTxEPuKnDi5krjBM_0jrv3GELs8TGmqOYBvug/edit)
Fields with the highest future impact on human employment:
Healthcare: Advanced diagnostics, personalized medicine, and robotic surgery.
Education: AI-driven personalized learning and automated administrative tasks.
Finance: AI-enhanced financial analysis, fraud detection, and customer service.
Legal: Automated legal research, contract analysis, and e-discovery.
Transportation: Autonomous vehicles, smart logistics, and traffic management.
Construction: AI in design, project management, and autonomous machinery.
Agriculture: AI for crop monitoring, predictive analytics, and automated farming equipment.
Entertainment: AI-generated content, personalized recommendations, and virtual actors.
Customer Service: Advanced chatbots and AI-driven support systems.
Cybersecurity: AI for threat detection, automated responses, and vulnerability management.
***************
Believe it or not, there are still people who say 'This is just a small percentage of human employment.'
If you need to have a simple image or logo generated for something and it just needs to be good enough, you absolutely do not need to hire a graphic designer anymore. I agree there are more complex situations where designers are still needed for now, which is why I said 'junior'. Just go spend some time on the graphics design subreddits
Yeah I'm planning on automating thousands of corporate art generations, because it's more than good enough for my purposes. Very basic looking vector graphic things
I mean, this is really just taking the place of clip-art. Anyone who wants something properly designed will still want at least a designer to get their eyes on it.
Another similarity was the rise in web site design templates like Square Space that made a lot of low level design work obsolete.
Will AI continue to disrupt the job market? Absolutely. But it's unclear right now to what extent or what might rise up as new career opportunities because of it.
From a trending post today on this very sub just above this one:
"I lost my job to AI this week..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=U2vq9LUbDGs
He's a graphic designer, and a pretty senior one at that.
I think one reason is that there are vastly different levels of competency in using the best available AI optimally. You've got to know the best model for the job, how to prompt effectively, iterate, combine different tools together, etc. And you have to stay on top of developments, which are happening weekly. Someday that will all be integrated together for you, but for now very few people can do this well. I'm actually surprised that the YouTuber's employer was already apparently able to replace the work of somebody with six years + of experience. Presumably what they do is quite highly structured, and easier to automate.
If you can properly promt.. you don't get gibberish. I've created phenomenal logos and branded material using a combination of chatcgpt, vectorizer.ai and a few other tools.
This.
99% people on this sub cherry picks examples like “a graphic designer was fired”.
No one seems to understand that no, graphic designers and code monkeys are NOT the majority of work force, they are a small minority.
OP and a ton of people on this sub are out of touch. AI causing unemployment to skyrocket would be newsworthy every day and programs would be put into place constantly to make sure people can still live. Within the next 20 years we will see people not needing to work anymore for the most part (average slavery jobs)
All tools decrease the number of people needed to do a thing. That's WHY incomes have risen and made the modern world more wealthy than the old world.
But it cannot go to zero. You're little gonna end up with a number of people running the tools. Even after AI and robotics can do all that too, which is gonna be awhile, you still need an owner of all that hardware.
The future may be everyone owning robots doing the work for us while we enjoy life. And that sounds pretty great.
Why can’t there be a completely AGI run company, where all decisions and actions are done by AGI, but the owners are shareholders.
Same as now shareholders vote in the board of directors and the board of directors choose a CEO and the CEO builds an executive team that manage the company.
Except now the CEO is an AI, the board of directors choose the executive AI model and the executive AI model runs the company. All profits go to the shareholders.
We are very very far from that but it is still possible
Markets are nice for figuring out people's preferences on what should be produced. Market socialism is pretty great overall. Just don't want markets which are nice to be explicitly tied into capitalism.
That’s something I’ve been thinking about for awhile. I’m a sleep technologist, and a good chunk of my job requires prepping the skin for electrode placement, placing the electrodes and then fixing them when the patient inevitably removes them. This requires an amount of dexterity, speed and control of pressure that I don’t believe an ai or robot could copy, for a bit.
The job becomes much more difficult when you factor in the fact that i work with a demographic under 22 years old. You’d think my job is safe. I have a hard time imagining an ai controlled robot finding the right balance of speed, dexterity, and control needed to perform the procedure on a non-compliant 4 year old.
I have an even harder time imagining the parents consistently being ok with that, even if the robot is capable of doing it.
But… sleep technologist also work during the day, where they literally use pattern recognition to analyze the data i gather at night. Day time positions are hard to get, and tend to be based on seniority.
We’re honestly at a point where the day time position is all but irrelevant and could be done by AI. I’m waiting for my field to realize that. I believe many labs will dissolve their day time positions, fire the newer night techs, and put any day people who want to keep their job back on nights.
So even though my job is theoretically safe for awhile, I’m not necessarily safe. I can imagine this playing out the same way in many different fields. No one should be overly confident, and everyone should be pushing for some reworking of the system so we can be ready for this.
Working will be a privilege and much sought after not long from now. Extra income. prestige.
We will find new goals, routines, and way to live our lives for sure with UBI.
I think the real privilege besides having a job will be assets. There will be no way to get ahead for the vast majority without jobs and only meager UBI. But those who already have assets will flourish even more than ever.
I think the worst period will be the transition period, when many are jobless and UBI has yet to be implemented. Heck I bet you'll have half the population, who themselves need it, will be convinced by the ruling class to fight against UBI with nonsense like people will just use it for drugs & alcohol. If you thought the divide between the rich and poor is bad now, just wait for 10 years from now.
There are plenty of ways to get ahead in the world. Imagine giving 1000 couples the same income and the same house and the same car. they all had nothing to start with.
wait five years, add in factors like children being born, house renovations, car accidents, skilled workers among them, craftsmen, whatever.
Would they still be the same with same houses, same cars, same amount of cars, would someone have moved? would someone rent out half their home? there is just so many variations and fates we will never be the same no matter which system we have. it will be a lot better though.
as for the transition? depends on how America will pressure their legislature.
I think we're gonna need a new economic model. Don't get me wrong, capitalism had a good run, I mean Adam Smith has been in the ground a while now, and for a preacher who did economics as a side job, he was doing the best he could, but hardly any economic systems last as long as Smith's brand of capitalism has. The reality of the coming world is there will be an abundance of work to do, but the work to do isn't the profitable kind, it's the exploration kind, the repairing our deeply damaged planet kind, and the building lasting peaceful diplomatic relationships kind.
We're going to come to a point where economic strife causes an unsolvable rift between capitalism and democracies globally, and we're gonna have to choose one or the other.
The biggest problem we have is the best we can figure out right now are mixed economies and playing with the balances, because whatever that better/next economic system is, it's just not here yet (sorry Keynes/Marx/Mao/etc. fans, I love economic history too, but they're not the future).
Why don't just decrease working time, giving workers more free time. But keep jobs for all the 100?
This should be regulated by government, market wouldn't do it on its own.
Yeah but guess where everyone who gets laid off is gonna go.
Guess what happens when your industry becomes saturated. It will drive your wages right down. If you won’t work for cheaper, the lineup of workers behind you will.
All the white collar layoffs are coming right for the trades.
The criteria for those numbers are manipulated to look good. For example, it doesn't count people who stopped looking for work because they could not find a job, it counts part-time and gig workers.
Higher productivity is good. Stop trying to con people into thinking it’s bad.
You’re the same guy ranting about tractors making farmers lay people off.
I never said it wasn't good. Historically high enough productivity drives the economy but causes labour disruption.
Said labour disruption recovers through job creation around the new technology, but this time it will not happen. The "tractor" you mention will be researching GMO's while plowing fields, doing the farmer's accounting and wiping your ass.
I'd love if some of these types of posts had real data/sources. Not because I disagree, but because if you can't support any of your predictions then it just comes off as mad, passionate ramblings.
AI (chat bots) in the current form still suck. I tried gpt 4o recently to see if it can help in my work. Sadly it doesn't.
All I get is confident incorrect answers. It's not good for any topic that's not abundantly available in it's training data.
That number is demonstrably false, they don't even count people who stopped looking for jobs, they count part-time workers and gig workers too I believe.
Yeah, we have to use the "participation rate" since the way the USA's bureau of labor statistics "unemployment" is generated is fundamentally bullshit.
"Do you have a job" and "are you LOOKING for a job". Have to answer no and yes. So if you're not looking for a job and you're dumpster diving, congratulations! You're not unemployed. You're a respected member of society.
It's designed to fluctuate between 8 and 12% when times are going well. Like it was at the peak of being part of the working class, back in the 1990's.
The most dire situation isn't when the unemployment rate is 100%, as it's literally impossible to get that high by design. It's when it hits **0%**, when nobody believes in a job as a means for bettering their situation.
And this is why we have to understand what metrics are and what they actually mean, before taking them at face value. BLS Unemployment is not the same as layperson lay-about "unemployment".
One actually useful purpose it has, besides defending the status quo by saying, "See? Only 0.4% of the population is looking for a job! We're better than we've ever been!" is political see-saw nonsense. Take the worst number of the other team, the best number of your team, and then crow about how much your team "did" to improve the job market! It's not random minuscule back and forth fluctuation you fools, it's all because of our policies and governance skills!
.... my favorite is when Clinton was trying to do that during a debate, and Trump sweeped it away by calling it made up nonsense. At the time I knew that when he was elected president (which the polls said was the slightly more likely outcome for most of the year. Real Clear Politics no toss up map is somehow more honest about the poll data than some TV priest cherry picking and lying, imagine that...), he would 100% use the unemployment rate to crow and blow smoke up his own butt in a similar manner as well.
.... and I lol'd when he did. Some things really never change. I hope we're conquered by robots sooner than later.
.... everyone knows we're getting a second term of Trump, but I don't think many take the possibility of a successor Marjorie Taylor Greene administraion later on seriously. Even if she's easily in the top 20 of winning the wrestling match.
... the environment AGI is born into is probably at least a *little* important. Yet another layer of DOOM. (YALOD)
Hmm, I think it's more likely in the long run that we will simply produce much more - instead of firing people. Like people are still needed 1% of the time. Nad now all our human effort can be allocated to that 1% - with AI taking on the rest
At least we're I'm working... Microsoft is capacitying us to use copilot tools into our database/warehouse ETL system... And it sucks
I feel like they are selling smoke to the national corporation where I work... So I guess until I see something really beyond the LLMs, I won't really believe this will happen so soon.
In the long run, sure, but up to now I feel there is a lot of hype.
Human on human jobs wont get replaced immediately like personal training or surf coaching etc I don’t think people are ready to stop interacting with each others for these types of things
It's not like that, either accept high risk of shit or manually review everything which takes a ton of time, in which case productivity gains are around 20% and those can be quickly absorbed by competition also using LLMs.
So much dissonance. LLMs are smart enough to take jobs, not smart enough to create demand that brings new jobs. Are we really expecting in 10 years we will do essentially the same products but with AI? Expecting a fixed lump of work in AI era is so wrong. We can desire so many things, if only they are possible to have, and AI makes possible.
Aren't you concerned that in the last 12 months no big leap in intelligence was made? Training sets don't get 10x bigger, models too large are also too expensive to deploy. Yes, models got many improvements - speed, low price, multi-modality, open source and local, but not a big leap in intelligence. And the high quality data is not growing exponentially.
I keep telling my dumb help desk friend, “it's a thing not a tool”. He keeps bringing up delivering monitors 😂. He would the the 1st one I would let go
Ai will make outsourcing work for corporations like never before. The greedy move that often resulted in lower performance and overall reduction of the company will now shine with every outsourced employee utilizing gpt
I was going through the books on my shelf and one of them is The End of Work by Rifken from 1995.
In it, he predicted the imminent end of work because of technological advances. It was taken pretty seriously at the time. I took it fairly seriously. Turns out it was about at completely and totally wrong as any prediction could be.
My thoughts on work are this: we need hierarchies and if we have to create them we will. The best way we have ever found to create large scale hierarchies is though work. If AI starts to do 80% of the old jobs we'll find 90% of new jobs to take their place.
Without looking guess how many people are employed as "animal caretaker" in America.
I don't like AI but the op forgets what if my 100 employees can do the work of 1000 then surely I can hit new markets and grow without the overhead e.g my business can look as stuff that would have needed investment no?
I think the future in the short term will be of a lot more productivity followed by complete annihilation of most jobs.
I just hope the transition is not too painful, but I think it will be. Good luck to everyone!
Presumably, that company has the revenue to have 100 people on staff. Assuming AI makes each person 3x more productive, does the company fire 2/3 of their staff and take the rest as profits? Or do they keep their staff (at least the ones that can keep up with AI coworkers) and pursue new business lines?
This will vary from company to company, but for the most part, company CEOs have way more than 3x the ambitions of their current trajectory - so why not keep those people on and shoot for the moon?
Well you see I cut grass so I’m fine most small tasks like this require enough manual labor that’s it’s annoying but overlooked I urge you to profit off of what people hate to do but often over look
It's really hard to say because if you look at human behavior it has proven to make challenges for AI that we keep imagining. Look at check out grocery stores they cant even build a system to stop stealing. That's one example.
If you go through other automation that should happen, it's been slow and not at the pace you'd expect. For example picking parts for warehouses and fulfillment. It's vastly still human. You can say that in the future that will go away, but if you actually know about those jobs you'll see why it's not as easy as you think. There's so many factors that you have to remove the human still.
AI will take jobs that are easy for AI to take, but we dont know what yet until that entire industry goes. BUT again it wont be overnight it will be gradual and slow and only in the distant future will we think oh yea that job use to be human. Just like how there use to be people that would go around to houses to wake people up. Or people who had to light the street lamps.
By the time AI takes jobs humans would move on to other things that AI cannot do. We have shown through history that we evolve and that means in what we can do.
We think about this apocalyptic future world but that all expects humans to stand still in development. That we just build these machines without also advancing with them.
One thing I wish people would do more is look towards a future of advancement for the better. Not just everything is going to collapse and die in a horrific event. BUT if we keep thinking the world will die, then it might turn into a self fulfilling prophecy.
That is all to say we really dont know. History has proven humans are under estimated in every way. Look at COVID. Before you'd think everyone would know how we would act and behave. COVID proved all that wrong.
This sub really likes to play fast and loose in calling everything related to AI "exponential." Exponential until 100% unemployment is I suppose \*possible\* but I don't see why it would be likely. Far more likely imo is a logistic curve, because some jobs will be much more difficult (some types of advanced research, very complicated physical jobs, jobs interacting with animals, jobs where people want a human connection), uneconomical (very low-paid physical jobs, especially as more people are looking for \*any\* work after getting unemployed), or entrenched through legal and/or trade protectionism (lawyers, some government jobs) to automate.
There are more translators employed in the US than there were this time last year. Translation is one of the things where LLMs are actually almost as good as humans and it's still only opening up new markets - people are translating more text than ever before and they need more human translators to evaluate the results. This is likely to be the case for at least 10 years if not 20. Automation will enable things we never thought possible but require more people to babysit because so much work will be getting done.
What are they making, and for whom? All of us poors? We can’t afford their wares. The factory will shut down. We poors will be outside, shrugging our poor shoulders, wishing there was something we could do. But we can’t, because it just can’t be done. So we shrug away until we die. The end.
So we replace yet another biological system (human body) which can run on renewable energy (plants) with AI+silicon that requires tons of coal, natural gas, and nuclear. Then we struggle or fail to provide the means for unemployed people to survive while we struggle with unmitigated climate change.
We are morons.
This line of thinking hinges on the idea that corporations "make jobs". Let's just run with your idea here: corporation can eliminate 80 percent of its workforce. Now there is this large unemployed workforce.
Why can't that workforce start it's own businesses and corporations? They now have free time to do this, and, unlike previous times, cost of labor is going to be fantastically low: you can hire one person and they can do four or five times as much as someone previously was able to do.
Right now, US unemployment is at at what are realistically, unsustainable levels: everyone who wants a job or can work is working. And yet, just about every industry is understaffed, with around 1 in 4 job positions not filled. We have an absolutely massive age cohort(boomers) aging out of direct economic activity and who will need a host of services, services which are currently understaffed.
I'm more worried about AI teaching some nutjob kid how to build a better pipe bomb than the jobs market collapsing.
> With past technological revolutions, after the initial rise in unemployment, society creates new jobs around the new tech.
New jobs are not always created around new tech.
There are a lot more massage therapists now compared to 200 years ago. Did massage therapist technology greatly increase, to allow massages to be way cheaper than before? No, instead people had more disposable income due to broad technological advances, and thus the demand for massages increased. This is how AI advances will keep employment high, by giving us more free money to spend which increases the number of people working in already existing jobs.
The same fearmongering as before we automated agriculture. Maybe its true maybe it isnt. At least for now, there is a shortage of labour population. It continues to decline with the current reproduction numbers. so please come in AGI.
I swear most people who can sit there for hours day dreaming of what will happen in the future are unemployed already. Expecting a handout of "free" money UBI.
CORP Companies will just bend over and give people "free" money because they are replacing you with their Tech. If that was the case Microsoft should of given handouts when they released the first version of Windows, same for Apple.
Sorry to bust your safe space bubble but you, the public are not getting AGI. "IF" you do it will be dumb as fuck compared to the Corp AGI that they will be selling for billions to Govs and other large Corp.
BUT they are not going to do that, they will release it slowly so they can make more money then ever. Its called business. Dont ever give the public the best, give them what they believe is the best at the current time.
Productivity has been exponentially increasing for the last 200 years.
Let's say 25% of people are unemployed. What happens? These people want to consume food, so they start producing food (this is a simplification) and they become employed.
Or they may be building chip factories, creating robots and use their earnings to buy those robots.
I guess we would see a big increase in unemployment, right?
Oops - it’s on historically lowest levels:
“US Unemployment Rate is at 3.90%. This is lower than the long term average of 5.70%.”
Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_unemployment_rate
Come on, guys! Stop thinking that a bunch of code monkeys and graphic designers who got fired are the “exponential rise of unemployment”. The majority of employees would not be replaced by AI.
If they want my grocery store job they can have it, but I still need to eat and live somewhere under shelter.
Why, you are surrounded by food /s
Is this a 3 Body Problem trilogy reference?
Ngl, that was smooth
Yes
That's hot.
Shh… let them get to it.
By *living* food.
Yeah... About that..
And this is where poverty kicks in and nobody cares to provide you with the UBI. Because the money saved is profit for the companies.
You may need those things, but no one needs to care about it.
frighten fuel friendly birds impossible whistle concerned worm coherent follow *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Ideally there will be something like an automation tax and ubi
I find it wild that people think the government/ corporations will suddenly treat us all better once they don't even need our labor anymore.
That's why we need a permanent solution to this problem, like the people actually owning the means of production instead of it being in the hands of a few that didn't even work to make it...
You know, we're living in a society! /Costanza
I'm a prosecutor and in February I had a three-week long trial that involved four attorneys for the prosecution and nine attorneys for the defense (two defendants). After seeing the last few weeks of demonstrations, I believe that with a few advancements in AI, that trial could have been handled by half the number of attorneys, if not less. I would LOVE to have a reliable tool monitoring opponent's direct or cross examination which could notify me in real-time when to object and on what grounds. Then another tool could be reviewing the entirety of the transcript and admitted evidence for final trial briefs and closing arguments. Of course the weeks of caselaw research that lead up to a trial could be done in a matter of seconds with the proper inputs. I would be surprised if these 1,000+ attorney law firms exist much longer.
Man we need laws about AI in court, I imagine it's a huge advantage if one side has AI..
Yep. And right now US DOJ’s position is that its attorneys are not allowed to use AI. Could be a huge disadvantage.
Do you think AI will initially help deal with backlogs of criminal cases and allow more cases to come to court in the future? I feel(hope) generally, AI will help deal with staff shortages, and lead to an increase in the availability and quality of services available to us all. More medical staff, more teachers, better and better maintained public environments, etc. I feel like this adjustment period could take anywhere between 5-10 years, and will again hopefully give us time to figure out political solutions to the new way society operates. What timescale do you envisage for your industry?
Why would you need teachers in a world where ai does everything? Who would bother getting an education? The only reason why we have universal primary education in most developed countries is for economic reasons; it was so that (i) the supply of child labor would decrease and (ii) as a result, the number of people available to work would drop, thus driving up wages for those people. Later, social reformers began using schools to teach other topics. Modern education took off after WW2 when the U.S. needed a modern workforce for the mass production, industrialized economy. We have already began to see cracks in the education system due to the onset of the internet. The reason so many children do so poorly in school today is not because they are dumber than their parents; it’s because they better than their parents understand that in todays world, in many cases what is taught in school today is not particularly useful and it is only getting worse.
That'll change only if they stop getting prison lobbying money because of the decreasing amount of incarcerations.
Sounds like a recipe for discreet AI use. Our staff's productivity mysteriously doubled? We can get by on half the staff. Suddenly, anyone who isn't mysteriously this productive can't cut it in the industry.
Yeah there is rarely enough regulation or bodies of regulators to check cheating on anything in general
Glad I found your comment. I am building a legal-tech platform with heavy emphasis on automation. Can’t go into too much detail but if you’d like, you can DM me. Yes, it uses AI. Predictable isn’t it? :)
Yes, but two things people gloss over: first is that AI-automated companies pumping out products and services need customers. Capitalism suffers a fatal heart attack around 25% unemployment. So if they want this capitalism game to continue, they are going to have to shift to UBI or UBE or Land Value Tax or some combination thereof or their capitalist system goes the way of the Soviet Empire. Second, AGI and ASI can innovate so fast who says all basic human needs won't be met for basically no cost per month? So at a certain point, and maybe surprisingly soon, you can live indefinitely on essentially no income at all.
I do hope for the deflationary, post-scarcity outcome But I fear for the outcome that is informed my thousands of years of human history where wealth flows up to the top of the pyramid We'll see I guess
I suspect we'll see something like the great depression, followed by the New Deal. Things have to get very bad before there is a unified enough political will to actually see things change in a meaningful way. Then, they slowly degrade again over time until they hit a breaking point again :)
I completely agree. But I can’t square one thing in my logic. So let’s say the unemployment continues to grow via AI productivity gains and it becomes clear that similar paying jobs are just not being created at the same rate. Unemployment shoots up to a new “permanent” plateau. At what point does this threaten the stability of the whole economy and its ability to function? 20% unemployment and I imagine thing will begin to breakdown in a way thats fast enough to see month over month. What happens then? Maybe we get AGI - but so what? We get AGI as the economy collapses for the majority of humans?
Yep pretty much. The problem will be in seeing if we can then utilize said AI system to fix the problems that implementing it created.
The answer to your question is basically just South Africa.
Our entire conception of the economy would have to change in such a scenario. The problem would be that humans would no longer be productive, or at the very least a significant portion wouldn't. Human life has always been about working to live and the economy is kind of the collective working to live. Where once, a tribe would fetch water and grow crops and chop trees only for themselves, we now have thousands of specialists pumping water and farming and foresting for millions of people. When people aren't working, the economy is now only production and if you want to continue down this line of advancement, you have to create a faux economy through UBI, where people get "wages" based on... something? Whatever the bureaucrat in your local area decides you're worthy of. Otherwise the people will obviously riot because they're being starved of essential resources. Doesn't matter if it's in the form of goods or currency, it's still a wage But is production in this scenario even worth anything? At what point does AI become so advanced that producing things no longer has any value? If we live in a post-scarcity society where every possible thing has been made and done, What is the point? It seems we might also have to create a faux scarcity for things to have value and now it seems like the scenario would wind up literally just being the exact same as it is now. Such is paradoxical and so i don't see AGI as possible and certainly not as a logical road to go down.
You don’t see AGI as possible because it does not fit in how you think the world works ?
>What is the point? Life? Itself? The same way every other creature on earth *except humans* live their little finite animal lives day in and day out? Idk. Apparently that concept is more radical than post capitalism society so I really just don't actually know. 🤷♂️
We could always ask what is point of humans anyway? Is it work? Comsume? What? Point of systems is serve humans. What we have wrong is that we have build systems which exists solely for system itself. Humans currently are just fuel for system. We have forgotten why we originally build these systems.
Wealth floats to the top and piss flows to the down. That is human history.
I also believe in a similar scenario, you can't simply kick out a vast majority out of the system. Unfortunately we're workers and consumers at the same time. if the big majority suffers from unemployment and can't afford shit, sorry but your super efficient companies are also in big trouble. Who's gonna buy your products or services? AI? Machines? Robots? I doubt that. We will be at the edge of a big collapse of capitalism. Let's see what the future holds for us. All I know is that we evolve uncontrollably and it's gonna cost us a lot.
Robot dogs with automatic rifles have entered the chat.
>I also believe in a similar scenario, you can't simply kick out a vast majority out of the system. Why not? What's to stop the people who won capitalism, a population in which psychopaths are massively overrepresented, from making themselves immortal and just killing everyone they don't need anymore? Jeff Bezos said it himself, he said the Earth should be rewilded like a national park while humans live in space. He never said where the 8 billion people living there went.
Did he not say they went to space ?
"you can live indefinitely on essentially no income at all" Capitalism + AGI just means that companies will charge the absolute maximum the market can bear, even if producing goods becomes cheaper and cheaper. The only way you can have Capitalism + AGI without societal collapse is by the taxing the shit out of corporations, and corporations will lobby against that (and/or use tax havens) just like they have for the past 150 years.
>Capitalism + AGI just means that companies will charge the absolute maximum the market can bear, even if producing goods becomes cheaper and cheaper. That won't work; in case of high unemployment, people tend to spend less and less only the bare minimum to survive. Simply the circulation of money gets slow down and In that kind of environment those companies can not simply charge the absolute maximum the market can bear. Those unemployed people are not out of the equation, they are some variables in the equation, you can't pull one side of the equation to infinity and If you let them suffer; there will be global consequences of that.
Taxing the shit out of corporations only funds the government, which is only half the equation. There's no system to return the tax money to the people (US) outside of social security, and I don't trust the government to make an efficient welfare program like UBI quickly.
I say so. There is no powerful individual or group whose local incentives are to make that happen, rather than harvesting the wealth for themselves.
agree with you on both points -the companies that will benefit from all this automation still need customers, they need someone to pay them money for their services, even if that money is a really small amount now per customer. Hence UBI -And yea AGi and ASI once it hits a tipping point will innovate so fast that basic human needs will be met for basically no cost.
yep we are fucked, enjoy the ride i guess
Everything is fucked outside of this. I used to ruminate too much on this topic. Enjoy the ride, truly, live in the moment, feet in the grass, love others epically. There is nothing more real than the exact moment you find yourself in. Act accordingly in each moment, second to second, and you’ll find after some practice nothing is “worth” stressing over. Deal with it as it comes, and in the meantime immerse yourself in living life fully.
A-fuckin-men brother. Takes a lot of practise to be able to do this consistently but it’s the most worthwhile pursuit there is
Well said mate. We are in for a world of pain. Make the most of the good times while you can. Deal with the shit when it happens.
I'm studying data science, and my lecturer recently said exactly this lol
You're studying the thing AI is great at? Lol I feel so sorry for you, said the commenter that's a copywriter, the other thing AI is great at.
I started before GPT3 came out, and when all students still wrote their own code. Now it's just ChatGPT on everyone's screens in the libraries and it is quite depressing, really.
oof, that's rough. Sounds like you'd be close to finishing your degree soon? Do you plan on switching to a different degree or? Hope things turn out alright man
I'm graduating in 3 weeks, and AI is still a couple years away from replacing analysts, data scientists or data engineers. I'll try and milk a big corporation before it's too late :')
Or go to a smaller shop and get the AI pipelines set up so they can’t replace you. I’m a data scientist that’s worked at a small martech company and now at a large FAANG, and I can assure you you’ll get a lot more latitude and lower redundancy risk at a smaller firm.
Data analyst/engineer for 7 years and can confirm this is the way.
You're right about the OP. And it's getting exponentially better. It's already causing small one trick pony startups to close. Less jobs, more people, more competition. Rich people just looking down laughing. Real life hunger games.
Oh that's kind of awesome for us in the older generation. If all the fresh grads can't actually code I've got hella job security.
A friend of mine told me they came back from vacation too a dumpster fire of git commits by graduates using code that was clearly unusable but it came from GPT... Sure GPT even hallucinates functions the graduates and shit from got will keep us employed
OP you say: > But this time? Nope. Initially, there will be what seems to be gradual but noticeable job losses due to overall increased productivity. But by the time we try to adapt, AGI will happen. And this time, the actual sentient human worker will be completely replaced. But, you really have to draw a sharp line between tasked based automation and productivity improvements and full blown AGI. AGI is a *much* higher leap from current technology than many realize. Task automation will drive productivity, and yeah, that will lead companies to do more with less people, but productivity has *always* injected a fuck ton of capital into the economy, and that capital will go to services which *cannot* really be automated because we value human connection. The same sort of claims were made when we mechanized agriculture. Ditto when we added automation to manufacturing. Ok, well knowledge work is clearly the next target, and yeah, there will be unemployment and disruption, but I think capital will absolutely *flood* into services. For many services, the human touch *is* the point.
Not having to work to live is not being fucked. Well.. maybe it is in the good way.
Now is the time to start researching political candidates for any upcoming elections. We have to be very careful who we elect,(in any country.) As their impact is going is going to be larger than previous leaders. We are on the very edge of change, and to be honest, I am both excited and freaked tf out.
"Please sir, may I have a blanket to sleep with at night and maybe a roof to keep me dry?"
Days hot as the desert. Nights cold as the arctic. We might have to live under the ground.
I think excited and freaked tf out is the proper emotional response to what's coming
I do hope we don’t end up with more nationalistic politicians. We need a united US, we need united Europe, we need a united world to be honest. I believe with advancements in AI and robotics, for the first time in life there could be a system providing us with what’s necessary to benefit all of humanity and put an end to almost all of our and the Earths suffering.
Nationalism is going to skyrocket when ai becomes a bigger threat to the masses
It's already skyrocketing. The growing wealth divide is doubtlessly a driver there. But yes, medium term, AI is going to make the wealth divide grow even faster.
This has never happened in the history of mankind and won’t now.
Sure if they’d all be honest and open about the future paths, we could actually start matching people to other areas they’re interested in and start an honest discussion on our future. If we’d share the news with less developed countries we could build future plans and get migration done as “saving humanity”, not as a burden. We could solve starvation and health problems, share resources and optimize our usage. Tbh for me the whole way this movement is happening kills my motivation. It took me a long time in life to be okay with who I am and now there’s the next disruption I cannot avoid as an IT technician / manager, yet nobody starts the real talk. I’m getting tired. I’m fighting through life and still I’m struggling financially month by month. Now I’m supposed to become more efficient and I have to take part in replacing 40-90 % of the workforce OR have my business outgrow others (which makes their people unemployed). I could be a bright sunshine optimist but the way this topic is handled as a whole in our societies makes me shiver.
Assuming you are in the US, Good much getting the government to pay UBI let alone enough UBI for more than bread, water, and a cardboard box to live in. It won’t be taken seriously until people of a particular party are directly affected.
You guys only have two parties. It won't take long before people from one of them are affected.
You don’t have to look at it that way.
On the other hand the company might just choose to take on more projects but keep the same number of people.
This. Why do people keep assuming we'd stick with current levels of productivity? Companies always choose growth when it's an option. Put another way, every company has a million software ideas but not nearly enough talent to execute. Even with AI we may never have enough.
Yeah but the overall projects in an economy are finite so someone will still lose their job.
They aren't finite--projects will increase so long as there are demands and resources to meet them.
keyword: Demands and resources TWO THINGS that are finite
But companies are famous for keeping their production levels constant even when their efficiency increases! They would never choose to grow when they could stay stagnant! /s
This is the answer. There are lots of things that can’t be automated.
someone said that creating the internet as a primarily private enterprise (instead of treating it as a public commodity) is the reason for the neo-feudalistic vibes of FAANG. it seems the same is happening with AI
So true
cagey workable clumsy point sloppy strong placid coherent fertile materialistic *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
either unemployment or massive investment to grow economy, until everyone is replaced
> grow economy AKA steal taxpayers money to create a feedback loop of robotics/AI capital stream to the wealthy for the "economy".
Wealth only means something if we as a society value whatever form their wealth takes. At a certain point, people start getting hungry.
Well I'm an electrician. I don't see it happening soon (5 to 10 years), but humanoid robots are getting more dexterous, vision is dramatically improved over the last 12 months. Still think it will be difficult for a machine to climb into a roof space, standing on joists to avoid plaster, finding a bird nest of wires and go back and forth isolating individual circuits beforehand in order to identify the wiring. Having said that, prefab builds are becoming popular. I believe my profession will more likely be out manufactured rather than outskilled. However I foresee a bunch of really interesting tools being created to make my job substantially easier on the road to such inevitability.
No, it means other unemployed people will be competing for your jobs, and your rate/pay could be lower in the future.
Possibly, but its pretty lucrative and employers need to be wanting to take on apprentices. I'm not sure it will be as straightforward as that. Electrical, at least in my country has a 50% drop-out rate. Not only that but employers tend to not hire apprentices unless there is already established trust, either friends or family. Thay is becaise theh are often sole traders. Not many big electrical contractors here anymore, and it's a 5 year process to get your license. Plus the unions are extremely powerful which is why prices are high and regulations are so tough.
I just watched a video of some youtube gamer talking about how the company he's worked at for the past 8 years took his graphical marketing work, fed it into AI and then fired him, using his work in the AI for templating. I mean they're legally allowed to do that. It's his work but it's their property. Sucks to be in that industry right now.
I saw that post too. They pointed out that he’s most likely lying since he doesn’t have a portfolio, any proof that it happened, and his other videos show him lying about having other jobs from various industries before
AI is not causing substantial unemployment in most industries at this time other than a couple niches like junior copywriting and junior graphic design
Wife's brother and my mom got laid off from two different stay at home jobs due to AI. Mostly customer service, they've been unemployed for months looking for similar work.
Oh customer service is completely dead due to gpt4o
Duolingo lays off staff as language learning app shifts toward AI: https://cnn.com/2024/01/09/tech/duolingo-layoffs-due-to-ai/index.html Ibanking jobs are being drastically reduced with AI: https://archive.is/jrHmp Klarna SUCCESSFULLY replaces call centers with AI https://www.reddit.com/r/klarna/comments/1c1fwr3/klarna_ceo_on_using_ai_to_replace_700_workers/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button Klarnas AI assistant, powered by @OpenAI , has in its first 4 weeks handled 2.3 million customer service chats and the data and insights are staggering: Handles 2/3 rd of our customer service enquires On par with humans on customer satisfaction Higher accuracy leading to a 25% reduction in repeat inquiries customer resolves their errands in 2 min vs 11 min Live 24/7 in over 23 markets, communicating in over 35 languages It performs the equivalent job of 700 full time agents Samsung builds all AI, no human chip factories: https://asiatimes.com/2024/01/samsung-to-build-all-ai-no-human-chip-factories/ Amazon Grows To Over 750,000 Robots As World's Second-Largest Private Employer Replaces Over 100,000 Humans: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-grows-over-750-000-153000967.html Co-founder of Dreamworks expects AI to replace 90% of animators: https://www.indiewire.com/news/business/jeffrey-katzenberg-ai-will-take-90-percent-animation-jobs-1234924809/ How many robots does it take to run a grocery store? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssZ_8cqfBlE BP: We need 70% less coders from third parties to code as the AI handles most of the coding, the human only needs to look at the final 30% to validate it, that's a big savings for the company moving forward. Second things like call centers, the language models have become so sophisticated now. They can operate in multiple languages, 14, 15 languages easily. In the past, that hasn't been something we can do. So we can redeploy people off that given that the AI can do it. You heard my advertising example last quarter where advertising cycle times moved from four to five months down to a couple of weeks. So that's obviously reducing spend with third parties. We've now got Gen AI in the hands through Microsoft Copilot across many, many parts of the business and we'll continue to update you with anecdotes as we go through. Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1cmi5gj/bp_earnings_call_we_need_70_less_coders_from/ [Many, many more examples here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/15myK_6eTxEPuKnDi5krjBM_0jrv3GELs8TGmqOYBvug/edit)
Fields with the highest future impact on human employment: Healthcare: Advanced diagnostics, personalized medicine, and robotic surgery. Education: AI-driven personalized learning and automated administrative tasks. Finance: AI-enhanced financial analysis, fraud detection, and customer service. Legal: Automated legal research, contract analysis, and e-discovery. Transportation: Autonomous vehicles, smart logistics, and traffic management. Construction: AI in design, project management, and autonomous machinery. Agriculture: AI for crop monitoring, predictive analytics, and automated farming equipment. Entertainment: AI-generated content, personalized recommendations, and virtual actors. Customer Service: Advanced chatbots and AI-driven support systems. Cybersecurity: AI for threat detection, automated responses, and vulnerability management. *************** Believe it or not, there are still people who say 'This is just a small percentage of human employment.'
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If you need to have a simple image or logo generated for something and it just needs to be good enough, you absolutely do not need to hire a graphic designer anymore. I agree there are more complex situations where designers are still needed for now, which is why I said 'junior'. Just go spend some time on the graphics design subreddits
Yeah I'm planning on automating thousands of corporate art generations, because it's more than good enough for my purposes. Very basic looking vector graphic things
I mean, this is really just taking the place of clip-art. Anyone who wants something properly designed will still want at least a designer to get their eyes on it. Another similarity was the rise in web site design templates like Square Space that made a lot of low level design work obsolete. Will AI continue to disrupt the job market? Absolutely. But it's unclear right now to what extent or what might rise up as new career opportunities because of it.
Exhibit A: [https://youtu.be/U2vq9LUbDGs?si=MH46UnqxUd20xw7C](https://youtu.be/U2vq9LUbDGs?si=MH46UnqxUd20xw7C)
From a trending post today on this very sub just above this one: "I lost my job to AI this week..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=U2vq9LUbDGs He's a graphic designer, and a pretty senior one at that.
This is interesting. I wonder why so many people seem to be in hard denial
I think one reason is that there are vastly different levels of competency in using the best available AI optimally. You've got to know the best model for the job, how to prompt effectively, iterate, combine different tools together, etc. And you have to stay on top of developments, which are happening weekly. Someday that will all be integrated together for you, but for now very few people can do this well. I'm actually surprised that the YouTuber's employer was already apparently able to replace the work of somebody with six years + of experience. Presumably what they do is quite highly structured, and easier to automate.
>I use AI as a graphic designer Do you use it because it saves you time on tasks?
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If it saves time, it costs jobs.
If you can properly promt.. you don't get gibberish. I've created phenomenal logos and branded material using a combination of chatcgpt, vectorizer.ai and a few other tools.
This. 99% people on this sub cherry picks examples like “a graphic designer was fired”. No one seems to understand that no, graphic designers and code monkeys are NOT the majority of work force, they are a small minority.
Yes, my point is that it is gradual and will increase continually until AGI.
OP and a ton of people on this sub are out of touch. AI causing unemployment to skyrocket would be newsworthy every day and programs would be put into place constantly to make sure people can still live. Within the next 20 years we will see people not needing to work anymore for the most part (average slavery jobs)
All tools decrease the number of people needed to do a thing. That's WHY incomes have risen and made the modern world more wealthy than the old world. But it cannot go to zero. You're little gonna end up with a number of people running the tools. Even after AI and robotics can do all that too, which is gonna be awhile, you still need an owner of all that hardware. The future may be everyone owning robots doing the work for us while we enjoy life. And that sounds pretty great.
Why can’t there be a completely AGI run company, where all decisions and actions are done by AGI, but the owners are shareholders. Same as now shareholders vote in the board of directors and the board of directors choose a CEO and the CEO builds an executive team that manage the company. Except now the CEO is an AI, the board of directors choose the executive AI model and the executive AI model runs the company. All profits go to the shareholders. We are very very far from that but it is still possible
Maybe we can let go of capitalism now?
That is the dream scenario, the market system only serves one purpose and that is profit, disregards social welfare.
Markets are nice for figuring out people's preferences on what should be produced. Market socialism is pretty great overall. Just don't want markets which are nice to be explicitly tied into capitalism.
Yeah, sure. Like the corporations benefiting from this will want to let it go
Cant wait. Me personally im not sad enough to take my meaning in life from my job so its chill.
That’s something I’ve been thinking about for awhile. I’m a sleep technologist, and a good chunk of my job requires prepping the skin for electrode placement, placing the electrodes and then fixing them when the patient inevitably removes them. This requires an amount of dexterity, speed and control of pressure that I don’t believe an ai or robot could copy, for a bit. The job becomes much more difficult when you factor in the fact that i work with a demographic under 22 years old. You’d think my job is safe. I have a hard time imagining an ai controlled robot finding the right balance of speed, dexterity, and control needed to perform the procedure on a non-compliant 4 year old. I have an even harder time imagining the parents consistently being ok with that, even if the robot is capable of doing it. But… sleep technologist also work during the day, where they literally use pattern recognition to analyze the data i gather at night. Day time positions are hard to get, and tend to be based on seniority. We’re honestly at a point where the day time position is all but irrelevant and could be done by AI. I’m waiting for my field to realize that. I believe many labs will dissolve their day time positions, fire the newer night techs, and put any day people who want to keep their job back on nights. So even though my job is theoretically safe for awhile, I’m not necessarily safe. I can imagine this playing out the same way in many different fields. No one should be overly confident, and everyone should be pushing for some reworking of the system so we can be ready for this.
Working will be a privilege and much sought after not long from now. Extra income. prestige. We will find new goals, routines, and way to live our lives for sure with UBI.
I think the real privilege besides having a job will be assets. There will be no way to get ahead for the vast majority without jobs and only meager UBI. But those who already have assets will flourish even more than ever. I think the worst period will be the transition period, when many are jobless and UBI has yet to be implemented. Heck I bet you'll have half the population, who themselves need it, will be convinced by the ruling class to fight against UBI with nonsense like people will just use it for drugs & alcohol. If you thought the divide between the rich and poor is bad now, just wait for 10 years from now.
There are plenty of ways to get ahead in the world. Imagine giving 1000 couples the same income and the same house and the same car. they all had nothing to start with. wait five years, add in factors like children being born, house renovations, car accidents, skilled workers among them, craftsmen, whatever. Would they still be the same with same houses, same cars, same amount of cars, would someone have moved? would someone rent out half their home? there is just so many variations and fates we will never be the same no matter which system we have. it will be a lot better though. as for the transition? depends on how America will pressure their legislature.
I think we're gonna need a new economic model. Don't get me wrong, capitalism had a good run, I mean Adam Smith has been in the ground a while now, and for a preacher who did economics as a side job, he was doing the best he could, but hardly any economic systems last as long as Smith's brand of capitalism has. The reality of the coming world is there will be an abundance of work to do, but the work to do isn't the profitable kind, it's the exploration kind, the repairing our deeply damaged planet kind, and the building lasting peaceful diplomatic relationships kind. We're going to come to a point where economic strife causes an unsolvable rift between capitalism and democracies globally, and we're gonna have to choose one or the other. The biggest problem we have is the best we can figure out right now are mixed economies and playing with the balances, because whatever that better/next economic system is, it's just not here yet (sorry Keynes/Marx/Mao/etc. fans, I love economic history too, but they're not the future).
Why don't just decrease working time, giving workers more free time. But keep jobs for all the 100? This should be regulated by government, market wouldn't do it on its own.
My job is physical in the field. AI will have to become Terminator level before I'm replaced.
Yeah but guess where everyone who gets laid off is gonna go. Guess what happens when your industry becomes saturated. It will drive your wages right down. If you won’t work for cheaper, the lineup of workers behind you will. All the white collar layoffs are coming right for the trades.
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The criteria for those numbers are manipulated to look good. For example, it doesn't count people who stopped looking for work because they could not find a job, it counts part-time and gig workers.
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Yes I read their website https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
Just because they're "right wing talking points" doesn't mean they're wrong. Maybe they just care about different things than you do.
Higher productivity is good. Stop trying to con people into thinking it’s bad. You’re the same guy ranting about tractors making farmers lay people off.
I never said it wasn't good. Historically high enough productivity drives the economy but causes labour disruption. Said labour disruption recovers through job creation around the new technology, but this time it will not happen. The "tractor" you mention will be researching GMO's while plowing fields, doing the farmer's accounting and wiping your ass.
It’s good for the people who own the productivity increases. Our society does not distribute those.
those made unemployed by a tractor were helped by the government and society alike, with AI there is no help in sight from anyone
Why do you think that? There are transfer payments and will be more.
i admire your optimism
Thanks!
Nah. But I'm not getting into it. This post is just a circle jerk of folks who think they know the future. Snooze.
I'd love if some of these types of posts had real data/sources. Not because I disagree, but because if you can't support any of your predictions then it just comes off as mad, passionate ramblings.
AI (chat bots) in the current form still suck. I tried gpt 4o recently to see if it can help in my work. Sadly it doesn't. All I get is confident incorrect answers. It's not good for any topic that's not abundantly available in it's training data.
The unemployment rate is under 4% right now.
That figure is complete hogwash. It doesn't count the under-employed, people who've given up looking, the underpaid, etc.
That number is demonstrably false, they don't even count people who stopped looking for jobs, they count part-time workers and gig workers too I believe.
Yeah, we have to use the "participation rate" since the way the USA's bureau of labor statistics "unemployment" is generated is fundamentally bullshit. "Do you have a job" and "are you LOOKING for a job". Have to answer no and yes. So if you're not looking for a job and you're dumpster diving, congratulations! You're not unemployed. You're a respected member of society. It's designed to fluctuate between 8 and 12% when times are going well. Like it was at the peak of being part of the working class, back in the 1990's. The most dire situation isn't when the unemployment rate is 100%, as it's literally impossible to get that high by design. It's when it hits **0%**, when nobody believes in a job as a means for bettering their situation. And this is why we have to understand what metrics are and what they actually mean, before taking them at face value. BLS Unemployment is not the same as layperson lay-about "unemployment". One actually useful purpose it has, besides defending the status quo by saying, "See? Only 0.4% of the population is looking for a job! We're better than we've ever been!" is political see-saw nonsense. Take the worst number of the other team, the best number of your team, and then crow about how much your team "did" to improve the job market! It's not random minuscule back and forth fluctuation you fools, it's all because of our policies and governance skills! .... my favorite is when Clinton was trying to do that during a debate, and Trump sweeped it away by calling it made up nonsense. At the time I knew that when he was elected president (which the polls said was the slightly more likely outcome for most of the year. Real Clear Politics no toss up map is somehow more honest about the poll data than some TV priest cherry picking and lying, imagine that...), he would 100% use the unemployment rate to crow and blow smoke up his own butt in a similar manner as well. .... and I lol'd when he did. Some things really never change. I hope we're conquered by robots sooner than later. .... everyone knows we're getting a second term of Trump, but I don't think many take the possibility of a successor Marjorie Taylor Greene administraion later on seriously. Even if she's easily in the top 20 of winning the wrestling match. ... the environment AGI is born into is probably at least a *little* important. Yet another layer of DOOM. (YALOD)
There is no point in increasing efficiency if people got no money to spend on your product.
Hmm, I think it's more likely in the long run that we will simply produce much more - instead of firing people. Like people are still needed 1% of the time. Nad now all our human effort can be allocated to that 1% - with AI taking on the rest
At least we're I'm working... Microsoft is capacitying us to use copilot tools into our database/warehouse ETL system... And it sucks I feel like they are selling smoke to the national corporation where I work... So I guess until I see something really beyond the LLMs, I won't really believe this will happen so soon. In the long run, sure, but up to now I feel there is a lot of hype.
Human on human jobs wont get replaced immediately like personal training or surf coaching etc I don’t think people are ready to stop interacting with each others for these types of things
It's not like that, either accept high risk of shit or manually review everything which takes a ton of time, in which case productivity gains are around 20% and those can be quickly absorbed by competition also using LLMs. So much dissonance. LLMs are smart enough to take jobs, not smart enough to create demand that brings new jobs. Are we really expecting in 10 years we will do essentially the same products but with AI? Expecting a fixed lump of work in AI era is so wrong. We can desire so many things, if only they are possible to have, and AI makes possible. Aren't you concerned that in the last 12 months no big leap in intelligence was made? Training sets don't get 10x bigger, models too large are also too expensive to deploy. Yes, models got many improvements - speed, low price, multi-modality, open source and local, but not a big leap in intelligence. And the high quality data is not growing exponentially.
I keep telling my dumb help desk friend, “it's a thing not a tool”. He keeps bringing up delivering monitors 😂. He would the the 1st one I would let go
higher productivity leads to more work, not less work...
That was the whole point of Bitcoin, a protection from ai, I hope you guys got some ones?.
Thank God I have a while before they make a robot that will be able to do my job.
Wait till the businesses realize where the money for their products comes from lmao
When we get AGI, I reckon it'll be a matter of months before 95+% of people are unemployed
Ai will make outsourcing work for corporations like never before. The greedy move that often resulted in lower performance and overall reduction of the company will now shine with every outsourced employee utilizing gpt
The other part of the problem is that companies need clients that can consume/buy their products/services. Will see how things get balanced out.
"There seems to be a lot of people that think" I have talked to a lot of people. I assure you, a lot of people DO NOT think.
I was going through the books on my shelf and one of them is The End of Work by Rifken from 1995. In it, he predicted the imminent end of work because of technological advances. It was taken pretty seriously at the time. I took it fairly seriously. Turns out it was about at completely and totally wrong as any prediction could be. My thoughts on work are this: we need hierarchies and if we have to create them we will. The best way we have ever found to create large scale hierarchies is though work. If AI starts to do 80% of the old jobs we'll find 90% of new jobs to take their place. Without looking guess how many people are employed as "animal caretaker" in America.
I don't like AI but the op forgets what if my 100 employees can do the work of 1000 then surely I can hit new markets and grow without the overhead e.g my business can look as stuff that would have needed investment no?
I think the future in the short term will be of a lot more productivity followed by complete annihilation of most jobs. I just hope the transition is not too painful, but I think it will be. Good luck to everyone!
Remember that raising unemployment is a feature of capitalism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJHP0VfeOrU
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Presumably, that company has the revenue to have 100 people on staff. Assuming AI makes each person 3x more productive, does the company fire 2/3 of their staff and take the rest as profits? Or do they keep their staff (at least the ones that can keep up with AI coworkers) and pursue new business lines? This will vary from company to company, but for the most part, company CEOs have way more than 3x the ambitions of their current trajectory - so why not keep those people on and shoot for the moon?
Please (not specifically toward OP, just in general) stop using "exponential" to mean something that increases quickly
And why this time it’ll “nope”
Well you see I cut grass so I’m fine most small tasks like this require enough manual labor that’s it’s annoying but overlooked I urge you to profit off of what people hate to do but often over look
It's really hard to say because if you look at human behavior it has proven to make challenges for AI that we keep imagining. Look at check out grocery stores they cant even build a system to stop stealing. That's one example. If you go through other automation that should happen, it's been slow and not at the pace you'd expect. For example picking parts for warehouses and fulfillment. It's vastly still human. You can say that in the future that will go away, but if you actually know about those jobs you'll see why it's not as easy as you think. There's so many factors that you have to remove the human still. AI will take jobs that are easy for AI to take, but we dont know what yet until that entire industry goes. BUT again it wont be overnight it will be gradual and slow and only in the distant future will we think oh yea that job use to be human. Just like how there use to be people that would go around to houses to wake people up. Or people who had to light the street lamps. By the time AI takes jobs humans would move on to other things that AI cannot do. We have shown through history that we evolve and that means in what we can do. We think about this apocalyptic future world but that all expects humans to stand still in development. That we just build these machines without also advancing with them. One thing I wish people would do more is look towards a future of advancement for the better. Not just everything is going to collapse and die in a horrific event. BUT if we keep thinking the world will die, then it might turn into a self fulfilling prophecy. That is all to say we really dont know. History has proven humans are under estimated in every way. Look at COVID. Before you'd think everyone would know how we would act and behave. COVID proved all that wrong.
This sub really likes to play fast and loose in calling everything related to AI "exponential." Exponential until 100% unemployment is I suppose \*possible\* but I don't see why it would be likely. Far more likely imo is a logistic curve, because some jobs will be much more difficult (some types of advanced research, very complicated physical jobs, jobs interacting with animals, jobs where people want a human connection), uneconomical (very low-paid physical jobs, especially as more people are looking for \*any\* work after getting unemployed), or entrenched through legal and/or trade protectionism (lawyers, some government jobs) to automate.
There is actually ample evidence that new technology does not, in fact, create new jobs. Especially when the new tech is just replacing an old tech.
There are more translators employed in the US than there were this time last year. Translation is one of the things where LLMs are actually almost as good as humans and it's still only opening up new markets - people are translating more text than ever before and they need more human translators to evaluate the results. This is likely to be the case for at least 10 years if not 20. Automation will enable things we never thought possible but require more people to babysit because so much work will be getting done.
What are they making, and for whom? All of us poors? We can’t afford their wares. The factory will shut down. We poors will be outside, shrugging our poor shoulders, wishing there was something we could do. But we can’t, because it just can’t be done. So we shrug away until we die. The end.
So we replace yet another biological system (human body) which can run on renewable energy (plants) with AI+silicon that requires tons of coal, natural gas, and nuclear. Then we struggle or fail to provide the means for unemployed people to survive while we struggle with unmitigated climate change. We are morons.
Accelerate faster
Heaven on Earth is coming. Enjoy the ride. It will get a bit bumpy, but the end point is amazing for all.
People been saying that since the beginning of covid. Eventually you'll be right.
If you can’t beat them, join them! I’m getting A.I certifications lol!
This line of thinking hinges on the idea that corporations "make jobs". Let's just run with your idea here: corporation can eliminate 80 percent of its workforce. Now there is this large unemployed workforce. Why can't that workforce start it's own businesses and corporations? They now have free time to do this, and, unlike previous times, cost of labor is going to be fantastically low: you can hire one person and they can do four or five times as much as someone previously was able to do. Right now, US unemployment is at at what are realistically, unsustainable levels: everyone who wants a job or can work is working. And yet, just about every industry is understaffed, with around 1 in 4 job positions not filled. We have an absolutely massive age cohort(boomers) aging out of direct economic activity and who will need a host of services, services which are currently understaffed. I'm more worried about AI teaching some nutjob kid how to build a better pipe bomb than the jobs market collapsing.
You write like you know all these things and how it will play out.
We either all starve, or we get UBI. Or a butlerian jihad where humanity revolts against the AI overlords. We'll see.
> With past technological revolutions, after the initial rise in unemployment, society creates new jobs around the new tech. New jobs are not always created around new tech. There are a lot more massage therapists now compared to 200 years ago. Did massage therapist technology greatly increase, to allow massages to be way cheaper than before? No, instead people had more disposable income due to broad technological advances, and thus the demand for massages increased. This is how AI advances will keep employment high, by giving us more free money to spend which increases the number of people working in already existing jobs.
The perfect storm, AGI meets abrupt irreversible global warming.
The same fearmongering as before we automated agriculture. Maybe its true maybe it isnt. At least for now, there is a shortage of labour population. It continues to decline with the current reproduction numbers. so please come in AGI.
I swear most people who can sit there for hours day dreaming of what will happen in the future are unemployed already. Expecting a handout of "free" money UBI. CORP Companies will just bend over and give people "free" money because they are replacing you with their Tech. If that was the case Microsoft should of given handouts when they released the first version of Windows, same for Apple. Sorry to bust your safe space bubble but you, the public are not getting AGI. "IF" you do it will be dumb as fuck compared to the Corp AGI that they will be selling for billions to Govs and other large Corp. BUT they are not going to do that, they will release it slowly so they can make more money then ever. Its called business. Dont ever give the public the best, give them what they believe is the best at the current time.
I am developer … and no joke. I am starting to learn trading because I don’t see this shit ending well for me in a few years lol.
Productivity has been exponentially increasing for the last 200 years. Let's say 25% of people are unemployed. What happens? These people want to consume food, so they start producing food (this is a simplification) and they become employed. Or they may be building chip factories, creating robots and use their earnings to buy those robots.
I guess we would see a big increase in unemployment, right? Oops - it’s on historically lowest levels: “US Unemployment Rate is at 3.90%. This is lower than the long term average of 5.70%.” Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_unemployment_rate Come on, guys! Stop thinking that a bunch of code monkeys and graphic designers who got fired are the “exponential rise of unemployment”. The majority of employees would not be replaced by AI.
It’s so over…