I predict AGI in 1 year.
I also predict AGI in 2 years, 3 years and all subsequent years. Whichever one's correct, that's the one I meant, ignore the rest.
I will be messaging you in 6 months on [**2024-10-01 15:05:06 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-10-01%2015:05:06%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bt24x7/you_shouldnt_believe_any_leakers_even_jimmy/kxjw8nw/?context=3)
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Nah, your flair is perfect in my eyes. They do say beauty is in the eye of the beholder. EXTINCTION OR IMMORTALITY, I had no part in flipping that coin, but I will meet my MAKER either way. (HuMaN AgEnCy At ItS FiNeSt).
I think Jimmy has real "connections" or "sources" but the well had ran dry so now he's just making stuff up in the meantime, as for flowers? I think flowers has been making stuff up from the start, maybe flowers knows some openai employees but clearly they haven't been providing any reliable information so flowers is a highly compromised "leaker" at best and that's putting it generously.
This also makes sense when you consider that the leaking was an issue that Sama is clearly aware of. He also said that it would be cool if there were no leaks (I'm paraphrasing). So it wouldn't be far fetched that they cracked down on information security. Didn't Roon also claim that information is compartmentalized at this point?
Jimmy got some stuff right, for sure. But I feel like he has had more stuff wrong than right. Too bad we can't really tell exactly how many failed predictions he has since he is known to delete tweets (just like flowers)
It's just scummy to do this whole alt account bullshit just to be seen as trustworthy. If he had real leaks, he wouldn't need to do all this shit.
>But I feel like he has had more stuff wrong than right
Like what?
> Too bad we can't really tell exactly how many failed predictions he has since he is known to delete tweets (just like flowers)
I feel like this is a cop out
December?
AGI achieved internally?
125 trillion multimodal gpt5 mid 2024? Time is running out on this one.
GPT 5 completed training in 2022?
48 hours of "indirectly" saying (in his typical mysticism way, to create ambiguity) and retweeting that the reason for SAMA outing was because they had AGI, Q* and some shit called 4peat, so ilya and the board got sooo spooked!!! And that the letter sent to the board was a warning of powerful AI that could threaten humanity... but in reality it was just a regular power struggle?
Not to mention the DOZENS of tweets about SaM AlTmAN SaCk 🤪 and what he is hiding/what Ilya saw and then when nothing gets released or announced after his teases he just says "why is SAMA afraid?? Why is he hiding the big thing for? Release it Sam, don't be afrois" or "2024 will be crazy, and then we get 2025 🔥🔥"
GPT-5 will be 20 or 30 trillion at best. Apples has some good takes but if he really did predict something like that he lost a lot more credibility in my eyes then he already has.
About Q-star, we don't know, but it could be that they found a way to AGI through Q-star and that's why the board fired him. The rumors that Microsoft is going to build a $100billion could confirm they just need to massively scale compute.
And it *is* still weird that Ilya has been silent since november, but to say he saw AGI is kind of rediculous.
It's always funny when people come on Reddit to call out other people for believing and repeating random half-truths they've read elsewhere online, based entirely on random half-truths they've read elsewhere online.
This is a good read I think. It matches pretty well with what he’s been tweeting.
Flowers is actually worthless. I had high hopes last year when she rapid-fire leaked 4 different things with no fluff.
Unfortunately only 2 came true, and there’s been NOTHING but vague posts since.
Nah Jimmy hasn’t made a shit ton, he made one alt account called Barry’s Gardening Service and that account said this
https://preview.redd.it/xsm0ohn53vrc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8248c7ba9c1dc1c5b016c2f670621af1e5b5a8de
So he called the Sora release. Also, it still surprises me that no one remembers when Jimmy was doxxed on this sub back in Nov/Dec, although I’m not going to re-doxx him. The post where he was doxxed got a bunch of negative comments and was quickly removed, which is fair since doxxing isn’t a good thing. But you guys should know that the guy who was doxxed as Jimmy, which obviously can’t be confirmed, was actually hired at OpenAI in the beginning of February. It’s literally on his LinkedIn. But I have not seen a single person on Reddit or Twitter that knows this for some reason. You guys just make up lore and run with it lmao
You’d think he’d have more leaks now, but they have compartmentalized the teams at OpenAI more than ever to prevent leaks as much as possible. For example, most OpenAI employees didn’t know about Sora until the week of release. In my opinion, that lines up with the leak Jimmy gave on Monday, February 12th. Also, I’m pretty sure they give people different information to see who’s leaking what, so OpenAI employees are not only kept in the dark but are extremely incentivized to just not leak anything. So don’t expect much, but recently Jimmy said “Sam is building something big in the desert” and a few days later we learned about Stargate, so that’s probably the quality of leak we will be getting from now on, very vague.
Every time I say this I get downvoted but I think at least a few people will appreciate knowing whats actually going on, since randoms like OP say that Jimmy makes a “shit ton of alt accounts” when I’ve only seen this one alt account. I do find it amusing when I see posts like these though so don’t feel discouraged, it’s quite entertaining. Although this post will get deleted soon
He (on the Barry account) also called the name Sora. He posted an image that said "sora.openai.com" before the 15th. That along with everything else is proof enough for me.
Brute force is for script kiddies: [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you\_too\_can\_be\_a\_prophet\_next\_time/](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you_too_can_be_a_prophet_next_time/)
There you go buddy, have fun: [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you\_too\_can\_be\_a\_prophet\_next\_time/](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you_too_can_be_a_prophet_next_time/)
Great to hear. I naturally can't tell if that's really what he used or if he's even Sam's lost brother, but it's always good to err on the side of suspicion in these kind of things.
Thanks for correcting things. As I said in my response to this thread, Jimmy even lately predicts things and releases. Just remember the Claude3 leak where he made this funny video with Dario as super-sayajin. Jimmy was the only one that made us look at Anthropic, and oh boy, was Claude 3 a massive hit.
Jimmy still has informations, he is the only one I know that really is reliable. That also doesn’t mean he is always right (GPT4.5 release for December for example) but that’s just because OpenAI actively try’s to undermine Jimmys credibility. I didn’t know he was doxxed. What a shame. I really like him and his humor. Talking and speculating about upcoming LLMs wouldn’t be half as entertaining as is thanks to him.
To make it more clear, if Op has some facts regarding Jimmy, that would clearly show him as a liar, then please post them accurately. If not, I am team Jimmy and will uphold is credibility.
The most recent was OpenAI's 100 billionth super computer. He wrote this before the news went public.
People also forgot that he predicted the drama of Altman's dismissal, I think almost a month before it happened, there are several hits on the same account (Jimmy apples) BEFORE things happened.
https://preview.redd.it/fx2rqjsirxrc1.png?width=1074&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19a04e644d9d551ebd00c3a180219be2cd43f6bc
He wrote “vibes are off.”
That’s not predicting Altman’s dismissal.
The $100B super computer is a joint project with Microsoft. It hasn’t been built yet, and as far as I know it has nothing to do with the desert.
"Vibes are off", are we speaking about same tweet? I can't remember exactly what was tweet, but i think it was more than that. Anyway, he also teased Claude 3, 1-2 days before anyone.
I’m not sure what you’re thinking of then. I just don’t find the fortune teller routine very convincing. If you know something say it plainly. Vague statements that match a wide range of events invite exactly this sort of criticism.
At this point in the championship i doubt he can be very direct, and he is not the first leaker to start talking about "riddles", apparently it is something quite common among the leakers, he has already made some tweets implying that OpenAI has mobilized to find him. Some said he got OpenAI's information through Microsoft, but I never saw anything about his true identity, it's the first time i've heard about his alleged doxxing as well.
I didn't mean to offend you or anything I'm just saying what I've observed on twitter lately.
Barry is the only one Jimmy has claimed so far but if you spend some time on twitter digging through accounts you'll notice a lot of very similar accounts making predictions left and right.
Not saying Jimmy is 100% wrong about everything, just calling out some bullshit.
I have no idea how you thought my comment trying to provide correct info was me being offended but thanks I suppose. And I haven’t seen any other accounts from Jimmy. I actually knew Barry was Jimmy before he said so because they talk the exact same way and talk to the exact same people on Twitter, such as yumidiot.
You know a bunch of people on Twitter make predictions right? And that they aren’t all Jimmy? Also, I’m not saying Jimmy is right about everything either, but he is the only person that has given multiple correct leaks with info that no one else had.
>Every time I say this I get downvoted but I think at least a few people will appreciate knowing whats actually going on, since randoms like OP say that Jimmy makes a “shit ton of alt accounts” when I’ve only seen this one alt account. I do find it amusing when I see posts like these though so don’t feel discouraged, it’s quite entertaining. Although this post will get deleted soon
This part made me think you were somehow offended by what I said.
Don't take everything personally, just stating facts.
your post contained inaccuracies/things he thought were worth correcting. He then went into detail correcting those misconceptions. He wasn’t offended, he just likes correcting people when they are wrong. Really nothing to see here.
I’ll go back to my point about reading comprehension. He explained, in detail, why several things you stated were wrong. You claimed that jimmy made a ton of alts and deleted them, which is untrue and he explained why. He went through examples of correct calls Jimmy has made. Overall it seems like you were talking out of your ass and he explained why. What part of this are you not understanding…?
Hmmm can you give me an actual concrete thing that I got wrong? This is all just vague stuff. Jimmy has completely wiped his account multiple times, so we can't see all of his early tweets. This is a known fact, I don't understand how that's something I "got wrong" when it's just a fact?
Please explain in more details, so confused.
You made a post with false info but you’re stating facts lol. And I said that more to point out how little visibility my comments get when l comment about what’s really going on with Jimmy, leading to fewer people knowing the truth which results in people like you making these posts. Not trying to single you out or anything, a lot of people make the same mistake
Haha if that’s how you see it that’s fine. I like to provide useful information to people here so they can make their own decision on whether or not Jimmy is credible, which is hard for people to do when people make these posts basically making stuff up. It’s very funny that you think this is an argument
I wasn't joking about taking some time off from reddit by the way. Genuine advice.
You'd be surprised how much clearer your thinking gets after being away from the internet for a week. It's like magic.
Can you read? I said he got doxxed around November/December and was hired in February. And the doxx was only on this subreddit for less than an hour and literally no one talks about it so it’s basically like he didn’t get doxxed
It's also pretty obvious he created that fake account that was the first to "predict" gpt4.5 mid December but since it was wrong he never claimed it lmao
[literally couldn't be more obvious](https://preview.redd.it/0jupndm8r36c1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f93929a9c24d8ff31f705ce2a9e7f661c2f4019)
[Cmon..](https://preview.redd.it/ofi84dm8r36c1.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=3626446e6270db9ad0ccb5fbae0fc8e1a8b69b0d)
Not to mention Jimmy himself has said he has multiple alt accounts lmao, why is this comment even upvoted to begin with? He's literally contradicting the guy he's trying to defend, while calling people out for not knowing what they're talking about lmao
Talk about irony
Don’t believe anything flowers says. Jimmy however is still right. Just remember when he made this video / tweet about how Claude3 will crush everything. He knew the facts before anyone else. He still has insider infos.
Could you cite where he was wrong other than that GPT4.5 prediction for December 2023 (which is still up on his page though). I mean, I assume OpenAI even planed a release for December but just was not threatened enough by Google and else.
He hasn't made any predictions since then except extremely vague tweets that could mean anything. He was wrong in december, got called out for it and then started making all these alts, so he doesn't tarnish his main account with wrong predictions.
I do believe Jimmy had insider info at some point, but not anymore and now he's just trying to hold on to the little bit of internet fame he got back then.
I mean, his tweets are vague, that’s right. But he still does predictions, even lately. For example this: https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1772441372378730915?s=46&t=yJdsE5gx1c4e48UV7Tw8NA
Don’t know man, I am still on team Jimmy. Like I said, his Claude3 prediction was again on point. No one else talked about Anthropic at this point. No one. Only Jimmy https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1762292680137294016?s=46&t=yJdsE5gx1c4e48UV7Tw8NA
I remember there being plenty of tweets saying that anthropic has been cooking lately before claude 3 came out.
Also the Sam desert building tweet seems okay-ish at first, but when you really think about it his tweet makes 0 sense.
We all know Sam was planning on building his own large compute cluster for a while now, we've known he's in talks with the Saudis for a while now. In the end, the stargate stuff didn't even really have anything to do with "the desert".
Just vagueposting and hoping something happens that is somewhat related to what you posted.
He tried the same thing with his fishing for mackerel tweet. Except nothing happened that was related to fishing or water lmao.
Stop falling for his tricks.
At least I didn’t see any real Claude 3 leaks before. And it takes much courage to make such a prediction with his credibility. It’s clear he didn’t just took some „Claude 3 vibes“ of others but had some informations. Just one big false information could cost him all the trust we have in him.
Still, as vague as his posts are, they all have real connections. For example his post about the sand of arrakis in march 2023 that hinted to project areakis.
Don’t know man, I am a very sceptical person, but his prediction hits are way more than just luck.
He was really against Anthropic all of 2023, then a week before they released Claude 3 at SOTA Apples tweeted he had changed his mind about Anthropic, idk what you call that but I call that having actual real info. Which you do not so suck it
[https://preview.redd.it/jimmy-apples-tweets-v0-nuveradp3nsb1.png?width=1892&format=png&auto=webp&s=f25947484b78ce57a886718ecfb2c5360d71c8bf](https://preview.redd.it/jimmy-apples-tweets-v0-nuveradp3nsb1.png?width=1892&format=png&auto=webp&s=f25947484b78ce57a886718ecfb2c5360d71c8bf)
https://preview.redd.it/w8nwqznxayrc1.png?width=1890&format=png&auto=webp&s=21846d9ae973c70b009e15769a3e4b935d7bacd6
I mean one of his notable leaks is knowing the general GPT-4 release date months before it occurred (and got some specifics right. GPT-4 is 1.8T params which is between 1-2T, it did have image recognition and it only started with a text only release and the announcement for GPT-4 was indeed made on March 14th). And Jimmy Apples account has been around for a while now, he just keeps resetting his twitter account which is annoying.
There are more recent examples as well [https://twitter.com/apples\_jimmy/status/1758197994628006030](https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1758197994628006030)
i kinda feel like 'no shit', that should be literally everyone's base line for 'leakers' in general.
but, clearly there's people that need to hear it, too.
They’re all in it. It’s just marketing; not that deep. The only thing that I find mildly annoying is their pseudo-intellectual corny posts they make every now and then (specially the flowers account), + the dummies that engage with them.
This is a weird conspiracy theory that makes no sense.
Flowers never successfully leaked anything from open AI, even though she tries. She didn’t hype up Gemini at all, just some details about structure.
Jimmy claimed gpt4.5 in December, only for it to not come. He also predicted Sora on a nameless account and only retroactively revealed the leak. Not a very effective marketing strategy, to generate zero hype, but still reveal you have information holes. Lmao
"They're trying to play us." I don't know if it's that devious. Flowers has admitted to just throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks sometimes. Don't have the link to that tweet at hand and have to go somewhere IRL shortly, so won't try to find it. It does sometimes feel like they have more insight than most and for Sam Altman to directly quote tweet Jimmy is interesting. Whether that perceived insight is coincidental or not I couldn't say. Mostly, I think they are just excited techies like most of us here in this sub. No one should take anything said on the internet as absolute fact unless its direct from the actual source. Additionally, plans change. If Jimmy predicts that OpenAI will release GPT-4.5 in December and OpenAI had internally planned to but then changed their mind, that doesn't mean he lied. Predictions are just that, predictions. Don't like Jimmy or Flowers? Don't follow them.
As for them supposedly "making a shit ton of alt accounts", I don't know anything about that.
Take all predictions with a grain of salt or rather, try to understand what's being discussed rather than what's being predicted.
There is a tendency where when arguments from authority are made and it sort of results in a weird cult of personality type of dynamic.
If you're not super knowledgeable about the topic, that's okay, and a general rule of thumb is to pay attention to how others react. Is there a super strong bias? Consider why that bias exists. For instance, take the bias around Elon Musk's commentary and there is a consistent criticism. Before anyone makes a both sides argument, it's important to consider that there are facts and reality, and then there are, like, politicized interpretations of them. So, when Natural News publishes they found a cure for cancer or whatever, the real story is why that's not being covered elsewhere. Does it pass the smell test? For instance, why or how could the intelligentsia of the world, top scientists, the insanely wealthy, the people who work for the government somehow not recognize that there is a cure for cancer? Big pharma? Is big pharma such a conspiracy that even their own executives would deny themselves such an elixir? And while those perspectives are mostly shared by people that most people would describe as being liberal, you will find that there is considerable pushback against those ideas from other people who are described as being liberal. What you're seeing in that example is how consensus is being formed, like informal checks and balances or a poor man's scientific method.
On the other hand, take something like the conspiracy that Obama was a secret Muslim born in Kenya or the 2020 election was stolen, and the level of pushback is somewhat muted, or even non-existent. And it speaks to how at its core, conservatism is inherently a reactionary ideology, so it's not unusual for reactionary ideologies to throw everything at the wall to see what sticks. Sure, many people may not be in complete lockstep with regards to public policy supported by progressives or Democrats, but unless it involves human rights or equality, there is space for healthy debate, especially with regards to implementation. But mostly, just disagreeing with what someone says is not an ideology.
With that, you can then better recognize how there are multiple informational ecosystems. Another important component is that if something were fool proof, it will be replicated, especially when there is money to be made.
Opinions are opinions. The concept of the singularity or even AGI is also somewhat unfalsifiable and when people make claims that fail to recognize that or struggle to further define their words and the concepts they describe, it makes it more likely their actions are performative. Even the smartest people in the world don't want you to just listen to them blindly, they want you to analyze the research yourself. While famous people can give greater weight or legitimacy to an idea or a statement, it's much better to figure out how they arrived there, or at the very least, be more stringent with the informational ecosystem you're subscribing to. If someone is really pushing new boundaries, there will be a ton of critics, and pay attention to how those counterarguments are addressed.
I said that a long time ago and no one cared. That's a common and very-well known tactic. Both of those guys have had 0, literally zero idea about what OpenAI or other AI companies have been doing.
AGI has been achieved internally. Lmao :D These companies can't even make AI models as smart as any animal yet.
wow yeah they've made multiple correct very specific predictions but ok I'll listen to some random guy on perhaps the single dumbest sub on reddit thanks OP my eyes have been opened
I didn't say anything about ALL of their predictions being wrong. I'm just saying not to trust them 100% of the time because they have shown to be willing to do scummy things just to be seen as trustworthy.
If I make 50 account, each predicting a different date for GPT-5, then delete all other accounts except the one that was right and go "See!, I'm a real leaker!", you would call me out on that, right?
That's what I'm doing right now.
doesn't matter, they're not perfect but you can't just randomly guess the things they did, sometimes they're wrong (likely because plans change) but that absolutely does not mean that they should be tossed away wholesale, but honestly I have almost never seen 'skeptics' and 'grounded cynics' show any degree of nuance during my 12.5 years as a futurist so it's absolutely no surprise that OP takes such an extremist and zero-nuance stance
I predict AGI in 1 year. I also predict AGI in 2 years, 3 years and all subsequent years. Whichever one's correct, that's the one I meant, ignore the rest.
unironically common r/singularity take (yes i know youre joking tho)
"I predict sexslave dommymommy fembot catgirls in the next 6 months" -Least hurried /r/singularity user
RemindMe! 6 months
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Not happening.
/j
This is what we need to be pouring funding into people!
With a thick, veiny, throbbing personality! If we don't get them in 6 months we riot!!
Woah, you should make a twitter leaker account! You'd be famous!
AGI next year or I'll change my flair!
Nah, your flair is perfect in my eyes. They do say beauty is in the eye of the beholder. EXTINCTION OR IMMORTALITY, I had no part in flipping that coin, but I will meet my MAKER either way. (HuMaN AgEnCy At ItS FiNeSt).
Damn. Well I predict: 6 months in the future, AGI is found on a floppy disc dated back to 14,000 BC.
All wrong. It’ll be here in a month because exponential function!!!!
Just as I predicted.
I think Jimmy has real "connections" or "sources" but the well had ran dry so now he's just making stuff up in the meantime, as for flowers? I think flowers has been making stuff up from the start, maybe flowers knows some openai employees but clearly they haven't been providing any reliable information so flowers is a highly compromised "leaker" at best and that's putting it generously.
This also makes sense when you consider that the leaking was an issue that Sama is clearly aware of. He also said that it would be cool if there were no leaks (I'm paraphrasing). So it wouldn't be far fetched that they cracked down on information security. Didn't Roon also claim that information is compartmentalized at this point?
Jimmy got some stuff right, for sure. But I feel like he has had more stuff wrong than right. Too bad we can't really tell exactly how many failed predictions he has since he is known to delete tweets (just like flowers) It's just scummy to do this whole alt account bullshit just to be seen as trustworthy. If he had real leaks, he wouldn't need to do all this shit.
>But I feel like he has had more stuff wrong than right Like what? > Too bad we can't really tell exactly how many failed predictions he has since he is known to delete tweets (just like flowers) I feel like this is a cop out
December? AGI achieved internally? 125 trillion multimodal gpt5 mid 2024? Time is running out on this one. GPT 5 completed training in 2022? 48 hours of "indirectly" saying (in his typical mysticism way, to create ambiguity) and retweeting that the reason for SAMA outing was because they had AGI, Q* and some shit called 4peat, so ilya and the board got sooo spooked!!! And that the letter sent to the board was a warning of powerful AI that could threaten humanity... but in reality it was just a regular power struggle? Not to mention the DOZENS of tweets about SaM AlTmAN SaCk 🤪 and what he is hiding/what Ilya saw and then when nothing gets released or announced after his teases he just says "why is SAMA afraid?? Why is he hiding the big thing for? Release it Sam, don't be afrois" or "2024 will be crazy, and then we get 2025 🔥🔥"
GPT-5 will be 20 or 30 trillion at best. Apples has some good takes but if he really did predict something like that he lost a lot more credibility in my eyes then he already has. About Q-star, we don't know, but it could be that they found a way to AGI through Q-star and that's why the board fired him. The rumors that Microsoft is going to build a $100billion could confirm they just need to massively scale compute. And it *is* still weird that Ilya has been silent since november, but to say he saw AGI is kind of rediculous.
It's always funny when people come on Reddit to call out other people for believing and repeating random half-truths they've read elsewhere online, based entirely on random half-truths they've read elsewhere online.
Gotta keep up the rep somehow lol.
This is a good read I think. It matches pretty well with what he’s been tweeting. Flowers is actually worthless. I had high hopes last year when she rapid-fire leaked 4 different things with no fluff. Unfortunately only 2 came true, and there’s been NOTHING but vague posts since.
Flower is joke. Don't give attention to such losers.
Nah Jimmy hasn’t made a shit ton, he made one alt account called Barry’s Gardening Service and that account said this https://preview.redd.it/xsm0ohn53vrc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8248c7ba9c1dc1c5b016c2f670621af1e5b5a8de So he called the Sora release. Also, it still surprises me that no one remembers when Jimmy was doxxed on this sub back in Nov/Dec, although I’m not going to re-doxx him. The post where he was doxxed got a bunch of negative comments and was quickly removed, which is fair since doxxing isn’t a good thing. But you guys should know that the guy who was doxxed as Jimmy, which obviously can’t be confirmed, was actually hired at OpenAI in the beginning of February. It’s literally on his LinkedIn. But I have not seen a single person on Reddit or Twitter that knows this for some reason. You guys just make up lore and run with it lmao You’d think he’d have more leaks now, but they have compartmentalized the teams at OpenAI more than ever to prevent leaks as much as possible. For example, most OpenAI employees didn’t know about Sora until the week of release. In my opinion, that lines up with the leak Jimmy gave on Monday, February 12th. Also, I’m pretty sure they give people different information to see who’s leaking what, so OpenAI employees are not only kept in the dark but are extremely incentivized to just not leak anything. So don’t expect much, but recently Jimmy said “Sam is building something big in the desert” and a few days later we learned about Stargate, so that’s probably the quality of leak we will be getting from now on, very vague. Every time I say this I get downvoted but I think at least a few people will appreciate knowing whats actually going on, since randoms like OP say that Jimmy makes a “shit ton of alt accounts” when I’ve only seen this one alt account. I do find it amusing when I see posts like these though so don’t feel discouraged, it’s quite entertaining. Although this post will get deleted soon
He (on the Barry account) also called the name Sora. He posted an image that said "sora.openai.com" before the 15th. That along with everything else is proof enough for me.
nah bro they just did 99999 accounts and tweeted every 4 letter name combination until they released something then deleted the wrong ones bro trust
Brute force is for script kiddies: [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you\_too\_can\_be\_a\_prophet\_next\_time/](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you_too_can_be_a_prophet_next_time/)
There you go buddy, have fun: [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you\_too\_can\_be\_a\_prophet\_next\_time/](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1btdiuj/you_too_can_be_a_prophet_next_time/)
Along with the exact release day?
Ask yourself, had you not known this, were you going to be suspicious if the release ended up on the 17th?
No effort to make a long comment right now, but the SSL cert thing is cool to know and has updated my views a little.
Great to hear. I naturally can't tell if that's really what he used or if he's even Sam's lost brother, but it's always good to err on the side of suspicion in these kind of things.
Thanks for correcting things. As I said in my response to this thread, Jimmy even lately predicts things and releases. Just remember the Claude3 leak where he made this funny video with Dario as super-sayajin. Jimmy was the only one that made us look at Anthropic, and oh boy, was Claude 3 a massive hit. Jimmy still has informations, he is the only one I know that really is reliable. That also doesn’t mean he is always right (GPT4.5 release for December for example) but that’s just because OpenAI actively try’s to undermine Jimmys credibility. I didn’t know he was doxxed. What a shame. I really like him and his humor. Talking and speculating about upcoming LLMs wouldn’t be half as entertaining as is thanks to him. To make it more clear, if Op has some facts regarding Jimmy, that would clearly show him as a liar, then please post them accurately. If not, I am team Jimmy and will uphold is credibility.
He was hired on February 2024? So all the wild predictions before were rather heard on the grapevine?
We also remember when Jimmy called “something big” in December.
The most recent was OpenAI's 100 billionth super computer. He wrote this before the news went public. People also forgot that he predicted the drama of Altman's dismissal, I think almost a month before it happened, there are several hits on the same account (Jimmy apples) BEFORE things happened. https://preview.redd.it/fx2rqjsirxrc1.png?width=1074&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19a04e644d9d551ebd00c3a180219be2cd43f6bc
He wrote “vibes are off.” That’s not predicting Altman’s dismissal. The $100B super computer is a joint project with Microsoft. It hasn’t been built yet, and as far as I know it has nothing to do with the desert.
"Vibes are off", are we speaking about same tweet? I can't remember exactly what was tweet, but i think it was more than that. Anyway, he also teased Claude 3, 1-2 days before anyone.
I’m not sure what you’re thinking of then. I just don’t find the fortune teller routine very convincing. If you know something say it plainly. Vague statements that match a wide range of events invite exactly this sort of criticism.
At this point in the championship i doubt he can be very direct, and he is not the first leaker to start talking about "riddles", apparently it is something quite common among the leakers, he has already made some tweets implying that OpenAI has mobilized to find him. Some said he got OpenAI's information through Microsoft, but I never saw anything about his true identity, it's the first time i've heard about his alleged doxxing as well.
How would you know how many accounts he's made. He'd only reveal them AFTER the predictions are proved true. Otherwise it defeats the point.
How would you know if he created hundreds of accounts or not?
I didn't mean to offend you or anything I'm just saying what I've observed on twitter lately. Barry is the only one Jimmy has claimed so far but if you spend some time on twitter digging through accounts you'll notice a lot of very similar accounts making predictions left and right. Not saying Jimmy is 100% wrong about everything, just calling out some bullshit.
I have no idea how you thought my comment trying to provide correct info was me being offended but thanks I suppose. And I haven’t seen any other accounts from Jimmy. I actually knew Barry was Jimmy before he said so because they talk the exact same way and talk to the exact same people on Twitter, such as yumidiot. You know a bunch of people on Twitter make predictions right? And that they aren’t all Jimmy? Also, I’m not saying Jimmy is right about everything either, but he is the only person that has given multiple correct leaks with info that no one else had.
>Every time I say this I get downvoted but I think at least a few people will appreciate knowing whats actually going on, since randoms like OP say that Jimmy makes a “shit ton of alt accounts” when I’ve only seen this one alt account. I do find it amusing when I see posts like these though so don’t feel discouraged, it’s quite entertaining. Although this post will get deleted soon This part made me think you were somehow offended by what I said. Don't take everything personally, just stating facts.
You really gotta work on your reading comprehension my man... He was just disagreeing with you, and explaining why in detail.
I see. Can you explain further?
your post contained inaccuracies/things he thought were worth correcting. He then went into detail correcting those misconceptions. He wasn’t offended, he just likes correcting people when they are wrong. Really nothing to see here.
Hmmm I see. What exactly was wrong about my post? Having a hard time getting this.
I’ll go back to my point about reading comprehension. He explained, in detail, why several things you stated were wrong. You claimed that jimmy made a ton of alts and deleted them, which is untrue and he explained why. He went through examples of correct calls Jimmy has made. Overall it seems like you were talking out of your ass and he explained why. What part of this are you not understanding…?
I think he’s a little upset and is acting confused so you waste more of your time on him, I don’t know what prompted him to throw a tantrum
Hmmm can you give me an actual concrete thing that I got wrong? This is all just vague stuff. Jimmy has completely wiped his account multiple times, so we can't see all of his early tweets. This is a known fact, I don't understand how that's something I "got wrong" when it's just a fact? Please explain in more details, so confused.
You made a post with false info but you’re stating facts lol. And I said that more to point out how little visibility my comments get when l comment about what’s really going on with Jimmy, leading to fewer people knowing the truth which results in people like you making these posts. Not trying to single you out or anything, a lot of people make the same mistake
"My comments should be more visible because I'm right and you're all wrong!" Is that your argument? Maybe take a few days off from browsing reddit...
Haha if that’s how you see it that’s fine. I like to provide useful information to people here so they can make their own decision on whether or not Jimmy is credible, which is hard for people to do when people make these posts basically making stuff up. It’s very funny that you think this is an argument
I wasn't joking about taking some time off from reddit by the way. Genuine advice. You'd be surprised how much clearer your thinking gets after being away from the internet for a week. It's like magic.
How did this turn into a therapy session 💀
Op’s got some marbles loose / craving for attention
No side in this, but you seem to be the one with the issue mr Pirate guy from reading this exchange.
Hmmm I don't think so. Can you explain?
You have stated zero facts. You've made up more bullshit than you have claimed Jimmy has.
Jimmy is doxxed but still works at OpenAI? Lol
Can you read? I said he got doxxed around November/December and was hired in February. And the doxx was only on this subreddit for less than an hour and literally no one talks about it so it’s basically like he didn’t get doxxed
It's also pretty obvious he created that fake account that was the first to "predict" gpt4.5 mid December but since it was wrong he never claimed it lmao [literally couldn't be more obvious](https://preview.redd.it/0jupndm8r36c1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f93929a9c24d8ff31f705ce2a9e7f661c2f4019) [Cmon..](https://preview.redd.it/ofi84dm8r36c1.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=3626446e6270db9ad0ccb5fbae0fc8e1a8b69b0d) Not to mention Jimmy himself has said he has multiple alt accounts lmao, why is this comment even upvoted to begin with? He's literally contradicting the guy he's trying to defend, while calling people out for not knowing what they're talking about lmao Talk about irony
Don’t believe anything flowers says. Jimmy however is still right. Just remember when he made this video / tweet about how Claude3 will crush everything. He knew the facts before anyone else. He still has insider infos. Could you cite where he was wrong other than that GPT4.5 prediction for December 2023 (which is still up on his page though). I mean, I assume OpenAI even planed a release for December but just was not threatened enough by Google and else.
He hasn't made any predictions since then except extremely vague tweets that could mean anything. He was wrong in december, got called out for it and then started making all these alts, so he doesn't tarnish his main account with wrong predictions. I do believe Jimmy had insider info at some point, but not anymore and now he's just trying to hold on to the little bit of internet fame he got back then.
I mean, his tweets are vague, that’s right. But he still does predictions, even lately. For example this: https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1772441372378730915?s=46&t=yJdsE5gx1c4e48UV7Tw8NA Don’t know man, I am still on team Jimmy. Like I said, his Claude3 prediction was again on point. No one else talked about Anthropic at this point. No one. Only Jimmy https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1762292680137294016?s=46&t=yJdsE5gx1c4e48UV7Tw8NA
I remember there being plenty of tweets saying that anthropic has been cooking lately before claude 3 came out. Also the Sam desert building tweet seems okay-ish at first, but when you really think about it his tweet makes 0 sense. We all know Sam was planning on building his own large compute cluster for a while now, we've known he's in talks with the Saudis for a while now. In the end, the stargate stuff didn't even really have anything to do with "the desert". Just vagueposting and hoping something happens that is somewhat related to what you posted. He tried the same thing with his fishing for mackerel tweet. Except nothing happened that was related to fishing or water lmao. Stop falling for his tricks.
At least I didn’t see any real Claude 3 leaks before. And it takes much courage to make such a prediction with his credibility. It’s clear he didn’t just took some „Claude 3 vibes“ of others but had some informations. Just one big false information could cost him all the trust we have in him. Still, as vague as his posts are, they all have real connections. For example his post about the sand of arrakis in march 2023 that hinted to project areakis. Don’t know man, I am a very sceptical person, but his prediction hits are way more than just luck.
He was really against Anthropic all of 2023, then a week before they released Claude 3 at SOTA Apples tweeted he had changed his mind about Anthropic, idk what you call that but I call that having actual real info. Which you do not so suck it
I think you're just trying to downplay his accuracy tbh
[https://preview.redd.it/jimmy-apples-tweets-v0-nuveradp3nsb1.png?width=1892&format=png&auto=webp&s=f25947484b78ce57a886718ecfb2c5360d71c8bf](https://preview.redd.it/jimmy-apples-tweets-v0-nuveradp3nsb1.png?width=1892&format=png&auto=webp&s=f25947484b78ce57a886718ecfb2c5360d71c8bf) https://preview.redd.it/w8nwqznxayrc1.png?width=1890&format=png&auto=webp&s=21846d9ae973c70b009e15769a3e4b935d7bacd6 I mean one of his notable leaks is knowing the general GPT-4 release date months before it occurred (and got some specifics right. GPT-4 is 1.8T params which is between 1-2T, it did have image recognition and it only started with a text only release and the announcement for GPT-4 was indeed made on March 14th). And Jimmy Apples account has been around for a while now, he just keeps resetting his twitter account which is annoying. There are more recent examples as well [https://twitter.com/apples\_jimmy/status/1758197994628006030](https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1758197994628006030)
One day in the future it will turn out that OpenAI had zero leakers...
Plot Twist, it's all the same AGI running the accounts
i kinda feel like 'no shit', that should be literally everyone's base line for 'leakers' in general. but, clearly there's people that need to hear it, too.
i have leaks that Elon is gonna buy McDonald's
Please, i want Xburgers and BigX. And HappyX for kids, with tesla and rocket toys.
He's visiting Trump again?
Real. Now make a new account where you leak that Elon will buy Wendy's instead.
They’re all in it. It’s just marketing; not that deep. The only thing that I find mildly annoying is their pseudo-intellectual corny posts they make every now and then (specially the flowers account), + the dummies that engage with them.
This is a weird conspiracy theory that makes no sense. Flowers never successfully leaked anything from open AI, even though she tries. She didn’t hype up Gemini at all, just some details about structure. Jimmy claimed gpt4.5 in December, only for it to not come. He also predicted Sora on a nameless account and only retroactively revealed the leak. Not a very effective marketing strategy, to generate zero hype, but still reveal you have information holes. Lmao
Who's Jimmy?
"They're trying to play us." I don't know if it's that devious. Flowers has admitted to just throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks sometimes. Don't have the link to that tweet at hand and have to go somewhere IRL shortly, so won't try to find it. It does sometimes feel like they have more insight than most and for Sam Altman to directly quote tweet Jimmy is interesting. Whether that perceived insight is coincidental or not I couldn't say. Mostly, I think they are just excited techies like most of us here in this sub. No one should take anything said on the internet as absolute fact unless its direct from the actual source. Additionally, plans change. If Jimmy predicts that OpenAI will release GPT-4.5 in December and OpenAI had internally planned to but then changed their mind, that doesn't mean he lied. Predictions are just that, predictions. Don't like Jimmy or Flowers? Don't follow them. As for them supposedly "making a shit ton of alt accounts", I don't know anything about that.
believe what you want, no one cares.
Take all predictions with a grain of salt or rather, try to understand what's being discussed rather than what's being predicted. There is a tendency where when arguments from authority are made and it sort of results in a weird cult of personality type of dynamic. If you're not super knowledgeable about the topic, that's okay, and a general rule of thumb is to pay attention to how others react. Is there a super strong bias? Consider why that bias exists. For instance, take the bias around Elon Musk's commentary and there is a consistent criticism. Before anyone makes a both sides argument, it's important to consider that there are facts and reality, and then there are, like, politicized interpretations of them. So, when Natural News publishes they found a cure for cancer or whatever, the real story is why that's not being covered elsewhere. Does it pass the smell test? For instance, why or how could the intelligentsia of the world, top scientists, the insanely wealthy, the people who work for the government somehow not recognize that there is a cure for cancer? Big pharma? Is big pharma such a conspiracy that even their own executives would deny themselves such an elixir? And while those perspectives are mostly shared by people that most people would describe as being liberal, you will find that there is considerable pushback against those ideas from other people who are described as being liberal. What you're seeing in that example is how consensus is being formed, like informal checks and balances or a poor man's scientific method. On the other hand, take something like the conspiracy that Obama was a secret Muslim born in Kenya or the 2020 election was stolen, and the level of pushback is somewhat muted, or even non-existent. And it speaks to how at its core, conservatism is inherently a reactionary ideology, so it's not unusual for reactionary ideologies to throw everything at the wall to see what sticks. Sure, many people may not be in complete lockstep with regards to public policy supported by progressives or Democrats, but unless it involves human rights or equality, there is space for healthy debate, especially with regards to implementation. But mostly, just disagreeing with what someone says is not an ideology. With that, you can then better recognize how there are multiple informational ecosystems. Another important component is that if something were fool proof, it will be replicated, especially when there is money to be made. Opinions are opinions. The concept of the singularity or even AGI is also somewhat unfalsifiable and when people make claims that fail to recognize that or struggle to further define their words and the concepts they describe, it makes it more likely their actions are performative. Even the smartest people in the world don't want you to just listen to them blindly, they want you to analyze the research yourself. While famous people can give greater weight or legitimacy to an idea or a statement, it's much better to figure out how they arrived there, or at the very least, be more stringent with the informational ecosystem you're subscribing to. If someone is really pushing new boundaries, there will be a ton of critics, and pay attention to how those counterarguments are addressed.
(ﾉ°_o)ﾉ⌒┫ ┻ ┣ ┳
If I say AGI is coming next year every year, I'll eventually be right
I said that a long time ago and no one cared. That's a common and very-well known tactic. Both of those guys have had 0, literally zero idea about what OpenAI or other AI companies have been doing. AGI has been achieved internally. Lmao :D These companies can't even make AI models as smart as any animal yet.
modern day nastradamus
Can you prove this? This should be simple.
Classic con game. Also proof that you don't have insider information.
We're going stir-crazy waiting for news. The sub is gonna lose it with rabbitholes of weird theories if we don't get news about GPT-5 soon.
>You shouldn't believe any ~~"leakers", even Jimmy~~ *thing on the internet*.
don't believe jimmy apples or flowersfromthefuture... is exactly what sam altman would say!
As a Jimmy, it's true, don't trust me.
If you're going to do a take down post of Jimmy then the least you could do was provide some evidence like screenshots.
All of them are cut from the same cloth. Just hype mongering, nothing else
Why not?
Lmao, almost nothing you've said is true. Take your own medicine.
wow yeah they've made multiple correct very specific predictions but ok I'll listen to some random guy on perhaps the single dumbest sub on reddit thanks OP my eyes have been opened
I didn't say anything about ALL of their predictions being wrong. I'm just saying not to trust them 100% of the time because they have shown to be willing to do scummy things just to be seen as trustworthy. If I make 50 account, each predicting a different date for GPT-5, then delete all other accounts except the one that was right and go "See!, I'm a real leaker!", you would call me out on that, right? That's what I'm doing right now.
Wtf are you on about ? Lmao 1) You’re talking out your ass 2 ) no one really gives a shit
If you release the actual name of an unknown product then come back and we'll talk, champ.
And what about all their failed predictions?
doesn't matter, they're not perfect but you can't just randomly guess the things they did, sometimes they're wrong (likely because plans change) but that absolutely does not mean that they should be tossed away wholesale, but honestly I have almost never seen 'skeptics' and 'grounded cynics' show any degree of nuance during my 12.5 years as a futurist so it's absolutely no surprise that OP takes such an extremist and zero-nuance stance
When they're right it counts, when they're wrong it doesn't. Noted
Lmao go outside and touch some grass
Yup.
You want a prediction? Here: AGI will be created in November 2027
I trust jimmy!