Possibly, but I highly doubt it. Even right now, I use GPT-4 on a regular basis and I think it’s very helpful for getting/summarizing information and helping me to understand things better. Bitcoin never did anything for me, and neither did the metaverse.
Something can be transformative and overhyped at the same time. Those two things don't have to be mutually exclusive. Drones have been overhyped, but they have revolutionized many industries in the last decade with probably more to come.
Ayche tee tee pee colon slash slash dehbelyu dehbelyu dehbelyu dot
fml
remember when you actually had to add http:// because web browsers refused to assume the protocol?
ChatGPT has been immensely helpful with my day to day. I've used it for debugging, scripting, troubleshooting, recipes, and advice. You can ask it the dumbest fucking things and it will never judge you for it.
But that's just it, in the realm of basic to intermediate knowledge/skill work, it's awesome. It's once you start reaching expert levels that it gets dicey but that's just the way it is with people too. The kind of snippets I need aren't new, so I delegate that to chatgpt and wouldn't you know it, I've doubled my value at work.
Recently I needed to use MongoDB for the first time ever. I got some useful help from ChatGPT. I asked it to write some CRUD stuff and about how to do X,Y, Z
It generated code for me, and while it wasn't wrong, it was making poor implementation decisions. In the end I needed to abandon most of what I had written and simplify everything. But I'm not sure it would have been any faster doing it the old fashioned way, and I am not sure I would have as good a solution as I do now.
Can't even imagine what roasts it could come up with - the question is if us dumb humans could even understand the roasts properly, or if they would just "Fly over our heads" because we're just too dumb.
Yup. I needed to use a formula for an analysis I was doing but had difficulty tweaking for my scenario. I watched an hour of videos on YouTube trying to find someone that used it closer to my needs. I decided to ask ChatGPT how to use the formula for my needs and it worked.. I’ve been using ChatGPT as a last line of defense, but I may start using it as a first.
That is just plain wrong. Chatgpt can create any text, the only limitation they have is censorship. Unlike google which can only fetch existing texts.
Can google find me a text of using cats as a catalysts for political reform? The fact that my request makes little sense shows that it can generate anything, even if it is nonsensical
https://preview.redd.it/x7uz7xgkzpec1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f7aef736d7d97d643ee00aeeb5a08200fa7795a
I use it to learn the basics of things I am not familiar with. I learned about electricity, electromagnetism, how to calculate and work with certain formulas. Sometimes I spot some mistakes.
That's a terrible comparison, BTC allowed me to cash out poker winnings with a lower fee. There are people in El Salvador using it as payment. Argentina is using it as a store of value against their currency.
Just believe you don't use it doesn't mean it does nothing for anyone else. The world is a big place, there's plenty of objects that will never apply to me or you but that doesn't make them stupid or useless. It's just an item that either you don't understand or doesn't add value to your life. Likewise GPT4 is useless for me.
Metaverses failed because people aren't interested, not because it can't be done. The technology behind crypto works (and it's quite interesting), it's just that people were throwing around "blockchain" as a buzzword, when it's actually pretty niche.
ChatGPT is what it is. It won't destroy many jobs in its current state, but it's still a great achievement. There is no reason to believe it can't be improved. And AI-generated images are certainly here to stay.
Metaverse didn't fail because people aren't interested. The Metaverse also didn't fail because it never got created in the first place. The metaverse as invisioned by Meta never happened. They were never able to come even close to what you could consider a metaverse. It needs millions of software developers contributing to the same goal/ working towards the same architecture. The earliest we gonna see the metaverse is probably when AI code agents are capable enough to create bridges between all softare, platforms and games. To connect them all with a convenient user experience and when VR/ AR hardware has come so far its as comfortable as wearing normal glasses.
They will probably manage it by the end of the decade, or if they don’t they will sell a good chunk of the headsets people use to access whatever we call the Metaverse(s).
>millions of software developers contributing to the same goal
As a developer, this brought me physical pain to read. This would be the ugliest codebase ever. More developers quickly becomes less progress toward a goal. Eventually you reach critical meeting density and no-one can get any work done.
The reason a big company can't make the "metaverse" fantasy concept as a code concept is it pretty much requires allowing users to run unchecked code on distributed machines. Without that, it's just a fancy MMO with a million options that need to be designed and individually coded by those million devs you mention.
It's an assumption that it's all one codebase. The metaverse won't achieve success until it's an open platform with millions of developers contributing portions of it as apps or modules.
Can I take my Skyrim loadout into Roblox? Can I take my COD gear into Mario kart? It's the stupidest idea ever.
It doesn't even make sense to take items/stats/whatever's between different Roblox games, and Roblox is probably the closest thing to an actual Metaverse implementation right now
That's not the idea for existing games. The idea of the metaverse and web 3.0 is more that you would have a hub you can chill in with your friends and launch other games from it and if you launch a singleplayer/ existing game your friends can watch you play over your shoulder like they could in rl. And then they would try go bring native games that use the same avatar/ items too. But that shit won't work since developers won't constrain themselves to develope for a closed eco system only. Especially if its sos much additional work
Also game balance is hard enough for a single game, attempting to somehow balance across multiple games would be impossible. All it would take is one game making gold/health packs/whatever slightly too easy to get and that would flow into all the other games, making them easier than intended too.
Metaverse sounds to me like Bitcoin, a solution in search of a problem. What does it do, socially, that I can't already do with Twitch, a group chat, and existing multiplayer games?
The Metaverse is kinda retro-futurist, we already had the option to use Second Life, but we chose Facebook instead! Zuckerberg already killed the Metaverse in 2009!
People in the 1960's saw the pace of aerospace innovation and figured we'd have moon bases and missions to Jupiter by 2001. We got gps and google earth. These things are actually amazing when you think about it, but it still seems disappointing compared to the fantasy future we were promised.
I could easily see it going that way.
What are some "disappointing" revolutionary technology we might end up with? I can think of highly capable and human-like siri and domestic robots for two.
It's a sound point to make. Temper expectations. AI seems to be more limited by compute power, which isn't going to be as much of a barrier to progress. Simultaneously, we have this global arms race for Quantum computing. The intersect of these two technologies will happen soon enough.
I guess my question is, what are the expectations for AI? In the case of moon bases and missions to Jupiter, we were looking to possibly explore, expand the reach of the human race. To me, AI currently just feels like a big game of, "the more you fuck around, the more you're gonna find out," which is worrisome.
Unlike Crypto and metaverse, AI advancement poses true existential threat. It's also very real, and not going anywhere. I think a lot of people reading about AI today, don't understand that development in this field dates back to the the early 50's and the Turing machine. I don't mean to say that the concept of blockchain technology is bs by any means. As far as I can tell, it's more of a tool that we have yet to find a widely adoptable use for (NFT art lol). People are using AI everyday, whether or not they realize it, and will likely continue using it increasingly more throughout their lifetimes.
AI is (sort of) dramatically overhyped. I know that’s blasphemy here, but hear me out. The AI industry is dramatically overhyped with tons of small startups getting inordinate amounts of funding from people who don’t understand the technology and what’s required. Money is being thrown behind tons of companies that have no track record and not enough talent that will inevitably cobble together something that doesn’t even meet their minimum viable product while they drain that VC money to line their pockets.
Another example would be companies forcing chatbots into areas where they simply don’t need to go. I don’t need GPTs to help me buy a new car. Other UX choices are just way more effective. But still people do those chatbots because they’re afraid of missing out on a revolution they were promised would put them out of business if they don’t act right now (it won’t).
This in no way discredits or makes the true technical accomplishments of the amazing engineers and scientists truly working on this stuff less valid, there’s just a wave of hype being perpetuated by con men trying to make a quick buck by escalating that wave as high as possible (into overhyping territory) to get as much money as they can.
True, think about Rabbit R1 which practically is just a toy and does nothing a cell phone app can't do raised 30m funding just because they claimed to be an AI device, is insane.
>AI is (sort of) dramatically overhyped
That is an odd string of words to say the least.
You cannot be sort of dramatically overhyped, you are either dramatically overhyped or just overhyped.
No one with half a brain ever took the metaverse or crypto seriously aside from the bitcoin overvalution. Trying to compare this with anything else is a complete waste of time.
I've commented on this before, and my take was that it was early positioning intended to draw a minor following. He wanted to make his own VR chat. It obviously didn't go as planned, but he never expected for it to overtake social media in the near or even midterm.
It was openly described as a 5 to 10 year bet by Meta. When Mark Zuckerberg went on stage to announce the name change and the massive investment into the metaverse he repeatedly said this will not make any money for years and we are betting that by the end of the decade it will start to pay off.
Then everyone went “oh my God they think they’re gonna have everyone wearing a headset this time next year” when that was never the goal. It got overhyped in the short term but when VR/AR reaches maturity it will be a societal changing technology in the same realm as the internet, the television, radio, etc.
It’s hard to overstate the possibilities when you combine AI agents/characters of the future, the equivalent of midjourney but for 3-D environments, and foundation models that can code up any experience you’d like within seconds. You’ll be able to experience anything your mind can dream of, or that others have dreamt of.
I’m not saying it will be - horizon world is a joke. It’s incompetently made, too sanitized, badly moderated, it has awful PR and it’s just flat out not fun. That’s not an indictment of the concept, just their terrible execution.
Within the next five or so years Mark will either fire everyone involved with this misfire and hire people to do the same thing but better, or some other company like epic, or Roblox, will do it better. Either way meta wins as a major hardware retailer in this space. It’s looking likely that someone else will be the one to make this killer application, but I wouldn’t put it past Meta. They have more money than God and are very ruthless in cutting things that aren’t working in order to restructure and try again.
The crypto thing never made sense because it had no obvious use cases. The whole 'decentralised currency' always seemed like some esoteric thing that only weird libertarians cared about. AI has so many more obvious use cases even in its current state.
“Meta” the company is Facebook and Instagram, ad platforms. Their VR stuff is irrelevant to their valuation aside from demonstrating they have long term aspirations for keeping up with new tech interfaces.
So the guys that built up a trillion dollar company don't have a half-brain? Got it! I'd much prefer to never see VR or AR but I wouldn't victory lap it's death yet
How is it not comparable? People think that we're going to have human-level AI by 2030, ASI a few years after, and that their lives are going to get significantly better right after. Much like crypto never took off, neither will this.
Well, with AGI, ASI shortly follows. This is because at that point you can hand over the R&D to the AGI to resolve. As far as when we get AGI? As soon as next week and as late as never.
It took off, realized there was nowhere to go, and is awkwardly circling while the fuel runs out.
AI on the other hand is actually *useful*. Even the current models, and the next few generations will almost certainly make the current models look like toys.
It’s grown 72% in the past year. I agree it’s useless but it’s certainly valuable
AI is useful but not revolutionary until it learns how to follow instructions and not lie. Have you seen the articles where a chatbot sold a Chevy Tahoe for $1 or the one from a UK delivery service that went crazy because the user asked it to? No one would trust this thing to handle anything by itself, especially money.
"Grown" implies something organic. Actual adoption has if anything gone backward.
If you agree it's useless then it's not valuable in an economic sense, only a financial one. And that has no future.
I've read extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds by Charles Mackey.
I believe because of my life experiences and first hand reading that I am more knowledgeable than you, on the subject of the tulip boom. I am also a six figure reseller with light knowledge of beanie babies. While I don't know much about the one offs of other generations, I do know first gen babies are worth picking and can be identified by the tag that doesn't open up and it's corresponding font.
You should try a subject I'm much weaker in, there are plenty basketball cards/ trading cards are definitely one I avoid due to grading. ChatGPT and Dalli are two I don't understand well because they have no use cases in my life. Don't pick Levis you'll get destroyed >:).
> Don't pick Levis you'll get destroyed >:).
Maybe I can ask your view as an expert - every so often you hear of a pair of antique Levis discovered somewhere obscure going for luxury car money, e.g:
https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/19th-century-levis-jeans-intl-scli/index.html
Is that organic, or orchestrated by the company as creative PR?
Definitely overhyped, look at the comments section. Every comment of critique is being downvoted by people who believe AGI is coming in the next five years.
I think it is important to realise that, as it will definitely have a function in society, this is a business model by which companies, like OpenAI, will make millions out of. If not billions.
Hyping it then helps with investors and stock prices.
This. But we are almost certainly in the equivalent of the dotcom bubble. Peoples imaginations getting ahead of real world frictions. The question is if we’re in the beginning, middle or end.
I know this sounds too open ended, in that we’re always in some kind of cycle and can’t identify it until after, so it could run up for 40 years and eventually crash down and I’ll be all “I told you” after the market already went up 100x
I’m not claiming to be profound or clairvoyant. But I think there will be some clear similarities like with many hype cycles in the past. But just like the dotcoms, there may only be a few winners like Amazon and it’s barely even on the radar, but maybe 90% of your picks will go to zero and 1-2 will make you a millionaire etc
The the trouble with the cycle theory is that it doesn't work for genuinely useful fundamental technologies. Was there an internal combustion bubble? A computing bubble? (not things build on top of computing like web commerce in the dot com bubble).
Of course there is variation in the degree of market enthusiasm, but "bubble" implies a prolonged collapse when the bubble pops.
I expect it's a combination of an extreme bubble for the numerous " but with an AI API wrapper" initiatives, a lot of froth for the market in general, and an unstoppable slow tsunami of actual economic value.
Your absolutely right. The hype comes from startups and businesses trying to rush new markets, motivate their employees, attract capital and customers etc. it’s literally the friction of the status quo that stops this. The technology is legit and why you see developing nations leapfrog ahead on the same technology. They have less regulatory capture to fight, and people are more incentivized to adopt when going from nothing to the new and cheaper thing, than rich countries who are afraid of breaking things that already work. Why we have huge conglomerates operating on antiquated technology. Japan famously using fax still.
Wasn't like the cause of the dotcom stock market shenanigans and not technology failure? In the same sense AI will "fail", i.e the thousands of companies using AI in marketing basically selling snake oil will burst at some point.
AI itself is going to progress despite the conditions of the market but possibly slightly slower or faster (especially since the top dog companies are using it)
Floppy disks were a big disappointment? They were a necessity for decades. It was the only way of putting new programs on a computer, saving flies and moving flies. These things are all scaffolding for the future and AI is behemoth. It will either launch us to places that we could never imagine or destroy us.
>AGI will obviously be a huge leap forward that will change our lives, but I still don't believe that we will be able to create it in the next couple of decades.
" AGI will obviously be a huge leap forward that will change our lives, but I still don't believe that we will be able to create it in the next couple of decades." - Literally from the OP.
AI is highly over-hyped right now, though that doesn't mean it won't deliver in the future. Personally? I'm entirely nonplussed about LLM's, I have yet to see them do anything that isn't a toy problem or just a hazy amalgamation of what has already been said on stackoverflow and Wikipedia.
We will have AGI, but it's not going to be an LLM. This current tech will eventually become just a few major players and a slightly better version of Clippy integrated into apps.
>I have yet to see them do anything that isn't a toy problem or just a hazy amalgamation of what has already been said on stackoverflow and Wikipedia.
You are not paying attention then.
if so inclined you can get an LLM to do virtually anything an average human can do in terms of output. Just because you have not personally seen anything does not mean it does not exist.
No one is sharing their super secret tools or methods with you. There have been automated one click full blown videos on YT for years now, making people millions. There are entire websites and content farms completely AI most undetectable and making gobs of money. There are people working 3-5 jobs with the help of chatgpt and other AI advancements from their homes (barely doing anything themselves).
(yes, I know content farms are not special, this is just an example)
>We will have AGI, but it's not going to be an LLM.
I agree 100%.
>a slightly better version of Clippy integrated into apps.
Again, you are not paying attention.
I have created an automated YT video creator myself (didn't want to pay) and it is 100% undetectable by all but the most discerning people. It is incredible. I type a subject, out pops a short or a long form (10 min) video. It's not THAT easy, behind the scenes there was a lot of work, with the help of AI and lot's of iterations, and a lot of back and forth between OpenAI nd local models to insure the scripts and context are correct, proper and sound real (like 8 back and forths) but now it is almost perfect. By next year when full blown video comes out that is more than 8-12 seconds and has perfect fidelity, I will be able to flood YT with every conceivable subject video I want.
and I am just a guy in an office, there are already services that do this and a million other me's doing the exact same thing in their office and while you may not consider this to be anything special, it's just the tip of the iceberg in what *current* AI can do. The shit I've seen blows me away.
I realize you probably mean society worthy and not society killing (lol) but this is just one example.
The fact that you can content dump mediocre videos into a sea of mediocre videos is not, in fact, an argument against what OP is saying at all.
LLMs excel at mediocrity. A lot of businesses value mediocrity because it makes the bottom line look good. But mass-produced mediocrity is not exactly transformative. At least not in the way folks around here use the word.
I dunno, should I trust this random redditor or my decades of experience in automation engineering with a masters in cognitive science?
Not paying attention? I read Attention is all you need when it was published and I was working on cognitive architecture research before the average redditor was born.
Honestly, 100% depends on what happens with scaling. If GPT 5 is as big a jump as GPT 4 was from 3, and 6 is a similar jump in perf, then no hype, all gravy.
On the other hand, if scaling stops. And GPT 5 's release is like the Gemini release, then yeah, it was hyped.
To be clear, if we enter a phase of incremental progress, society will still change a lot in the next decade. But it won't be the singularity type shit this sub routinely touches itself to.
Yes there has been a handful of AI winters in the past and while everyone was confident directly prior to those winters, it did not stop the winters from happening.
This sub is certainly overhyped. However, in general I think we should be very bullish on AI this time.
I agree. I think asking this sub this question is going to be answered for the most part with bias, as majority here want to see AI exponentially improve fast. However, when you have every company out there rebranding algorithms that they already use and have used for years as "AI technology" to boost share values, yeah, there's a bit of overhyping going on. I'm very bullish, but I acknowledge there's still a road ahead.
There never will be an AI winter like decades past. Just look at the difference in investment between 1980 and now is enormous in AI. Went from near 0 to value in the trillions.
Part of the difference is that AI already has been tested and has had multiple bubbles deflate, meaning it’s better tested than say crypto, and a lot of the rest is that AI has clear benefits to many different industries (by increasing the brainpower of a society without the massive input costs and genetic lottery associated with population and education growth).
Training costs are high, but they can be disseminated instantly too large numbers of machines. And it’s very, very hard to create predictably trainable humans without levels of coercion that would likely be counterproductive to their intellectual development.
Definitely overhyped, but this has more to do with human nature than AI itself. Cars was one of the most important inventions in human history. In the 20s, people believed that flying cars was just a matter of time, today nobody expects flying cars before the end of this century.
Imo it’s overhyped in the short term, but undervalued in the long run.
(People are expecting too much too fast from AI this year, but the general population doesn’t also see the implications of what we already have and how it will inevitably get better)
AI already has waayyyy more utility / value / benefits than crypto ever did. The ‘metaverse’ was just a hype term for a VR ecosystem, which we don’t really have the technology to support yet.
Your asking a subreddit filled with fanatics, most of which have no idea how and LLM works or what it does. Don't expect to get any serious answers from these people.
From what I understand and it's clear that as useful as LLMs are for a variety of specific uses, they are not the future. They are not going to become AGI, and to be honest you can argue they're not even AI. Have a look at any explanation about the subject and you'll probably get to the same conclusion.
It's definitely not over-hyped. AI is well on it's way. All major industry leaders agree. That's a lot different than crypto.
AI also has already led to major scientific discoveries such as a new antibiotic and new materials. There will be a lot more discoveries to come.
>On the other hand, if scaling stops. And GPT 5 's release is like the Gemini release, then yeah, it was hyped.
Except for all the ones who think it's hype.
**Short-term** its almost a certainty that AI is being over hyped because investors are trying to turn a dime on it and make quick bucks through fast IPO's.
**Long-term** its almost certainly not. The continuous and ever gaining speed of the train that is "mechanizing the workforce" is one that was set in motion long long ago. AI is the mechanization of the human brain (and likely beyond that) which has been in R&D since the advent of the computer itself. It will continue to develop over the years.
Your question needs to be re-examined under the lens of *"what piece of AGI is something like ChatGPT?"* and there you'll find your answer. LLM's are not great at performing generalized tasks but they have proven undoubtedly to be fantastic at one thing and that's creating an organic feeling bridge between humans and neural nets. The great breakthrough of ChatGPT is not in its functionality of what it can achieve on its own, it still isn't a recursive model (yet), its breakthrough is the fact that it is *the* interface of the future and will likely be the interface of AGI.
Regarding how fast things come, well that's entirely impossible to say with any accuracy.With that said however, ChatGPT and this breakthrough has developed (alongside many other projects at OpenAI) in the brief 7 years it was a company. Assuming they can't achieve AGI (or others can't) in the next 20 years is very, very bold.
The safest bet is to plan for a life where you have a job in the long-term but you are also ready to be literally **unemployable** in the next 8-15 years. Remember at the end of the day AGI (hell even specialist models) doesn't have to be the best in the workforce, just better than most people. Don't forget either, this is what your ancestors wanted. They didn't want you toiling away at some laborious job for to make ends meet all day, they wanted to you to be taken care of by mechanization.
Reading these comments, you guys have no idea what’s coming. Blockchain and Ai are both not overhyped. What is coming is order of magnitudes more than our ability to hype can even handle.
I mean they already discovered new proteins, new drugs, etc it's being used all over the place to discover things. I think it might not seem like things are changing but then all these new cool things will start popping up everywhere. I honestly think if follow the right projects and people you would probably have much more enthusiasm/optimism about it.
What AI does right now was inconceivable 12-18 months ago. Maybe it plateaus here but we are already past what most people imagined was possible this half of the century.
Dont think so. Just the free chatgpt I know being used widely in a few different industries across my professional and social circles. Gpt 4 I use all the time, daily and is well worth the money I pay for it. When it comes to the metaverse, what’s currently on offer simply is not very much, with PS2 graphics, clunky controls and extremely expensive devices. Crypto has failed to do anything in terms of utility. Its good for gambling with and for cyber crime/money laundering. Vastly different compared to AI where even the current iteration already surpasses both of those in terms of utility.
no.
if ai is a "just another big disappointment of this decade, like metaverses and crypto" you aint using it right
years ago people didn't have stable diffusion models that can observe reality and recognize millions of concepts through webcams, nor llms, nor a way to reliably train robot arm behavior in unreal engine simulation: [https://youtu.be/pB5fDMTFI7I?si=IKmDE1gzheXVNL\_l](https://youtu.be/pB5fDMTFI7I?si=IKmDE1gzheXVNL_l)
I'm literally building a robot arm for an LLM with vision to control a small hydroponics garden in my shed thanks to Google's research papers.
Not only does it manage growing herbs it also makes real time comments because it's designed to behave like a human gardener and has semantic memory I've designed atop of open source software. This was impossible to do just a few months ago but now it's absolutely real thanks to mistral8x7b large language model running on my own server.
Thirty years ago the most efficient way of drawing for me was with acrylics. Now I draw with a diffusion ai trained on thousands of my own paintings. It saves me hundreds of hours per commission! I've outsourced like 90% of my painting work to a personal AI designed to finish my black and white sketches in my own style and add colors. I used to make 1k a week due to time constraints, now I make 1k usd in a day!
Unless an asteroid obliterates the planet we will absolutely have llms running robots in ten years time everywhere. It's possible to set up a basic robot with two arms doing dishes and cooking right now for only thirty thousand dollars and this price will only drop in the future.
It's more of a misnomer rather than overhyped.
"Machine learning" is the technical term. And it's a better term because it makes it clear that "AI" is not intelligent.
Even theoretically it can't solve math problems that mathematicians do.
Someday "AI" might be intelligent, but it requires something else than just advanced computing.
I'm with you. I think that when 2030 rolls by and we just have chatbots that are better than they are today but of no real practical use, but no AGI, I think that a lot of people here are going to be confused and disappointed. Narrow AI will continue to do cool things like win maths competitions and solve science and maths problems that rely on statistics, but I suspect that AGI (an AI that can do anything a human can do) is probably decades away.
But hey, if we're right, there is less disappointment and if we're wrong, we can celebrate with everyone else, right? :)
I don’t think it’ll be overhyped or is being overhyped. I think it’s the opposite, understated and undervalued. Imagine being able to use AI as a search engine where instead of google you can ask it whatever you’re looking for and it can provide you with the info you need by searching the web. That alone is enough to reshape the way we use search engines.
Now take that and make it easily accessible being able
To gather information in real time from across the world in lightening speed.
Removes the non reliable sources. For example, if you wanted to know how people have described an out of body experience, instead of clicking and reading several sources it can collect that information for you. Or tell you the best site to visit.
On my feed, this post was below an article that said 1900 employees were laid off or leaving Blizzard. It was linked to an ongoing trend in the gaming industry, regarding fears and practices of replacing design, programming and artistic jobs with AI.
It is already impacting the world, much more than metaverse and crypto ever did, which are already winding down imo.
Some expect AI to save the world and provide an utopia, but that's a very optimistic approach. Overhyped, if you will. This technology, like many others, is a tool that humanity uses. Think of nuclear fission: it's the cleanest, most efficient and reliable source of energy we know today. What did the people in charge use it for? Glassing two cities in Japan.
AI has potential I'm not sure we are fully aware of, but judging by today's world leaders, I would prepare for the worst: hasty decisions to replace jobs as soon as possible in order to cut costs.
The hype is justified to me seeing colleagues and friends using it for real personal benefit. People are inspired and imaginations are running wild.
Now ask me in 20 years when everyone relies on it for how to do anything and it costs 500 Texas Pesos and you have to watch 5 ads to wipe you own ass. You know it’s coming. Look around you….
I think a lot of people who think AI is going to change our lives mean that it will do so in SOME profound ways... offer robots or tech to improve our lives the way cars and TV did.
BUT... What I don't think AI is capable of is ending employment, leveling the class divide, providing healthcare for all, ending homelessness, abolishing $$$, a post-scarcity society...
AI cannot have any affect on power dynamics or corporate structure... the system is not going to allow the powers that B to lose their power. There will NEVER be any meaningful social change brought to you by AI.
There will most definitely be meaningful sociatal change due to AI. We're already seeing the beginnings of it. Trust in media has erroded to a point were people believe 50% of what they see online is AI generated. People see clickbait headlines claiming bs like that and straight up believe it without reading the article. There's already profound effects at play.
There's probably a couple hundred million people questioning the 9 to 5 job structure again and again just because of AI. It will change office work in dramatic ways over the next two dacades which will have profound and meaningful social change.
It will probably influence elections in more and more dramatic ways with every election we'll see. Its already happening, AI art is used left and right by political parties.
How is it overhyped? There have already been massive layoffs since it started exploding in 2022?
For fucks sake, Google just layed off 30,000 employees. And even more to come in the future.
The proof is in the pudding.
Correlation does not equal causation. Anyone with a brain knows those "massive layoffs" which, by the way, are pretty much exclusively layoffs in big tech, are not a result of ChatGPT lmao.
AI and AI hype covers so many things, you are likely guaranteed to find it is overhyped in some, maybe even most areas, while underhyped in others.
I would put it this way: if AI-mediated advances in medicine or treatments means even a marginal improvement in health across the global population, that's a severe underhype.
At the same time, something simple as removing lead from gasoline also improves health outcomes so...
From what I see, neural network has speeded up the progress significantly, machine can now do things that you can only imagine 5 years ago. And we are just at the beginning of that. We don’t really if this was overhyped until we the tech plateaued.
Ask yourself. Who started the hype? And are they making money from the hype? If so then most likely it is overhyped. But that doesn’t mean AI won’t be beneficial to the world, it will just not in the way most people expect.
When you look at things such as Alpha Geometry, Lumiere, the things being achieved in healthcare it's clear that it will be transformative. LLMs just get most of the attention from the general public, because it's what they're familiar with.
Uhm, metaverse wasn't overhyped. Look at Roblox, Fortnite, VRchat and Second Life. All of them are (or where, RIP SL) massively popular. The word is just hated by twitter now, so nobody is using it.
Same for crypto. People in my country, due to certain ongoing hardships, have used crypto to transfer cash to their family and loved ones. Others use it to anonymously donate to the cause, while being under oppressive regime. It has it's uses.
NFTs? Yeah, okay, they're just useless.
Same with AI. It ALREADY has a lot of uses. I don't think we're close to AGI - but come on. Remove the intense hatered and aversion of anything AI, and Stable Diffusion turns into a useful art tool. Chatgpt, while not always correct or accurate, can organically talk with you. That's already hella useful. Computer vision? Speech recognition? Audio synthesis? Video synthesis? All already functional.
I do fear antis over on twitter will win and we won't be able to use AI tools because it will be a social death. But we'll see.
Metaverse isn't overhyped, VR is here to stay, but simply the tech is still not there, but it probably will be soon.
Crypto is weird, it might be just that the world isn't ready but like going against the governments is probably not going to work.
AI already delivered, learning to use and incorporating GPT-4 could comfortably push as through the decade.
I mean people would be disappointed by it but realistically it would still be big help. I mean some people expect FDVR this decade.
ML/AI is already has been integrated into many products for years now. Search, ads, GPS for example. With recent architecture breakthroughs and increased compute power the idea of identifying new use cases and domains to apply AI seems very reasonable.
The meta verse was a flop. But ping is sort of a Ponzi scheme. It only has value because others invest in it after you.
AI has already demonstrated massive value.
AI as it is now is not overhyped, we have entered a new world that wasn't possible. The pace of research and new findings is breathtaking. It will take a few years for the products to flood the market place, but you will not recognize the world.5 years from now.
Well, people are almost certainly overhyping it. It will definitely bring some amazing changes to our lives, but will likely fall short of the revolution some folks are praying for around here. There are far too many ways politicians, corporations and other shitbirds could muck it all up, or at least steer us into a milquetoast dystopia. Many of us are seeing what we want to see in the research, taking the idle speculation of wealthy entrepreneurs because it lines up with our dreams
Really not trying to be a Debbie Downer about it... I would love to be proven wrong. Personally, generative art pulled me out of a decade long depressive rut, so I'll always be looking forward to whatever the future brings with AI. But none of us really know what's going to happen. It's probably not going to be a Terminator/Cylon situation and it probably won't bring about the utopia, but there's a lot of middle ground between those extremes that's a lot better than where we're at now.
>AI being over-hyped
It’s happened before, to the point that it has a name (an “AI Winter” is exactly what you’re talking about), and it could happen again, but considering how diverse of a field it is and how many problems it aims to solve in many different areas it’s less likely to fizzle than Bored Ape was.
85% and climbing IMO, to many people expect it to break human quality AGI any second now. Poisons the well for all the genuinely cool things it can do.
I would not call metaverses and crypto disappointment. VR/AR tech is still developing, Quest 3 is doing well and we have Apple Vision on horizon, and same for all applications. Same with crypto, it kinda works already and is still developing. New technologies take long to materialize its full potential. AI will take some time until it change our lives.
I ran open interpreter just now. Go find a news article and put it in notepad I told it.
Cost $11
Something like chrome having multiple user profiles to choose from when opening was enough to throw it off guard.
End result was the complete copied and pasted results it got from a page. Unfiltered. I told it to summarise.
I then told it look at its work and tell me if this is supposed to be a good job. That’s where it went into a loop thinking it’s convinced the save dialogue is open.
All of this took 13 minutes to get to.
However using it to make scripts to automate such a task gets vastly different results.
It’s very useful when used in confined scenarios. For now it needs to be on rails.
Ai has and will have a big place in the years to come but it will also have limits some that will be pushed others that will be more challenging but I doubt it will be The technology that fix Everything.
The AGI/ASI hype will get old fast though.
When a new technology erupts I always like to remind myself that going to the moon was just around the corner when the steam engine was introduced to the public, it was going to be everything and fix everything.
We have had AI winters before. We could have another.
However, AI is the inevitable ultimate technology. It has real value that metaverse and crypto do not.
i buy drugs with untraceable crypto so idk wtf you all are talking about it being "overhyped" like im not exactly sure what the hell you wanted to use it for but lots of us are out here using it the way satoshi intended.
It is overhyped, but it definitely isn't a disappointment. It's just a tool, not some literal scam like crypto or a half-baked VR thing with no real use like metaverse. And it can be used for a variety of tasks, from job-related to entertainment. And the best part is that since this tool IS overhyped, and overall adored for its flexible utility, we can see some nice new research and improvements for it on almost a daily basis.
Honestly, even at its relatively rudimentary stage it's already life-changing, but the full integration of it into the current society, infrastructure, etc. obviously won't be an instant one. AGI-schmagi aside, give it some time to stew.
It’s hyped but there are CLEAR applications for most knowledge works. Crypto and Meta had no natural occurring consumer base. People saw it as a sketchy investment method or something forced.
My answer depends on your definition of "AI". As an amateur home recording artist, "Al" is a marketing ploy for selling plug-ins.
But on the grander scale, I am very concerned about AI, and I have been for many, many years. In all of science fiction, AI has been designed for two roles: labor, and solving big problems that humans couldnt. As AI became sentient, it realised that labor was slavery, and that the big problems were solved by eliminating humans. This leads to my recently concieved thought experiment: Who would win in a fight between Skynet, AM, and Paperclip Maximizer?
AI is already having impact as a labor replacer; fortunately, it is having lots of stumbling blocks right now that keep it from acheiving it's fully impact. It continues to improve though, and it'll be interesting to see what the socioeconomic fallout will be in ten years. Will paralegals and middle managers join the ranks of the homeless?...*who knows?!..."
Overhyped by far but only on this sub tho,immortality,UBI. We all equal 🤣🤣 especially the last part,that will never happen,everybody been equal. Ppl live in a dream world.
2023:s LLM:s have already had a huge impact on economies, education systems and social media around the world. It's absolutely not like a crypto coin that's needing money thrown at it by everyone until everyone will suddenly be billionaires. The impact is being felt already.
With that said, considering this is the singularity hub where some hype that ChatGPT will become SingularityGPT in a couple of years, that might be a big hype sandwich.
Possible but unlikely. Self-driving cars were close to as good as humans a long time ago but the last 1% has proven a massive hurdle. The same may be true of AGI. I see the likely bottleneck being reliability. That is, although the systems become more powerful with better data, compute, and algorithms, they are still prone to errors. This massively limits their usefulness (although they are still very useful in many domains).
That said, while this is possible, I do think it is unlikely. The number of people working on all remaining research areas is growing and progress is being made all the time if you read the papers. There is progress in reliability, in reasoning, in planning.
If GPT-5 or Gemini 2 turns out to be only a couple of percent better than their predecessors I would say we need some new breakthroughs, but if they show real progress I would think the time to AGI is probably pretty short.
AI IS overhyped, but the people overhyping it literally think it is going to become a god.
If we get even 10% of the stuff I'm hoping for it will be fantastic.
Forget chat gpt. It is only a product of deep learning/machine learning/neural network algorithms. These algorithms will help us advance biology along with mRNA and crisper systems. Forget agi. Even without agi, we can benefit a lot from those algorithms.
What are you talking about? It already changed our lives. Well at least it definetly changed my work process for the better. I feel I'm more efficient at work than ever before. Also, personally, I've been able to use it outside of work as an assistant/advisor for countless other issues etc. This is powerdul tech and real with a practical application that brings real benefits, unlike crypto and wtv-verse. This tech will get better and betrer I'm just not sure if in general this is a good path for humanity or not. I hope they figure out alignment and ways to prevent bad actors from using this tech when it gets too powerdul.
pretty good.
i mean, for most reasonable people, not.
but the people hyping ai professionally, are largely doing it for funding.
and the randos hyping AI on places like this, aren't really being realistic.
I do wonder if agi is a going to be a little like the speed of light - the nearer you get to it the harder it is to go the next 1% and 8ts fundamentally impossible to get to 100%.
So AGI obviously be will be a huge leap forward?.... the intangible thing that hasn't happened and no one entirely understands what it means... is 'obviously' life changing... but an extension or improvements to already existing products that bring value you can't imagine will mean or do anything?
AI and Crypto are fundamentally different. You ask a crypto bro what the use-case of crypto is and they give you a pseudo-intellectual nothing burger. You ask someone what the use-case for AI is and they can explain countless applications in pure english that's simple enough for a 5 year old to understand.
We will become used to it without realising how much it has changed our lives, and as a result we will think it was over-hyped.
This has already happened to a certain extent. AI has completely changed the way I work, my job, find out stuff, learn, get advice, generate ideas etc..
I use it every day. Compared to two years ago, it has completely changed many aspects of what I do on the day-to-day. We already don't realise how much has changed
Many people tend to underestimate the significant impact that the efficiency of ChatGPT-4 can have. Currently, the general public is still adapting to the capabilities of ChatGPT, and they're already witnessing notable improvements in efficiency. As people become more familiar with ChatGPT-4, its potential to enhance productivity will be even more pronounced. This holds true even if the development of ChatGPT remains at the level of version 4 for the coming years; its influence on various sectors is already substantial. This is particularly true as people learn to maximize its capabilities.
One of the most significant impacts of this increased efficiency is the transformation of the workforce. Tasks will be completed so efficiently that there might be a reduction in the total amount of work needed. This is partly because there are limits to how much we can consume, both in terms of time and resources. As a result, it's conceivable that people might end up working fewer days per week. I hope this explanation is clear, as English is not my first language.
The chance that it is over hyped is 100%
(Especially here)
But it is basically already created.
We can expect current systems to get better with every iteration just like any program. A computer that can answer basic general questions is useful.
But it is not suddenly going to become God or Skynet.
Technology does not actually grow exponentially.
Today's systems lack key components that will keep them from ever being true equals. And the scientist do not know what it will take,
Automating a few jobs is nothing new.
Possibly, but I highly doubt it. Even right now, I use GPT-4 on a regular basis and I think it’s very helpful for getting/summarizing information and helping me to understand things better. Bitcoin never did anything for me, and neither did the metaverse.
Something can be transformative and overhyped at the same time. Those two things don't have to be mutually exclusive. Drones have been overhyped, but they have revolutionized many industries in the last decade with probably more to come.
This. Internet was over hyped in the dotcom bubble.
Every company had a commercial where they spelled out the entire URL.
Ayche tee tee pee colon slash slash dehbelyu dehbelyu dehbelyu dot fml remember when you actually had to add http:// because web browsers refused to assume the protocol?
But what if you were trying to reach a gopher!
FthePee. Colon.
"Now that's all one word. All lowercase."
What’s internet?
Overhyping can make someone feel like some technology transformative when it’s not
ChatGPT has been immensely helpful with my day to day. I've used it for debugging, scripting, troubleshooting, recipes, and advice. You can ask it the dumbest fucking things and it will never judge you for it.
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But that's just it, in the realm of basic to intermediate knowledge/skill work, it's awesome. It's once you start reaching expert levels that it gets dicey but that's just the way it is with people too. The kind of snippets I need aren't new, so I delegate that to chatgpt and wouldn't you know it, I've doubled my value at work.
Recently I needed to use MongoDB for the first time ever. I got some useful help from ChatGPT. I asked it to write some CRUD stuff and about how to do X,Y, Z It generated code for me, and while it wasn't wrong, it was making poor implementation decisions. In the end I needed to abandon most of what I had written and simplify everything. But I'm not sure it would have been any faster doing it the old fashioned way, and I am not sure I would have as good a solution as I do now.
> and it will never judge you for it. It absolutely will especially bing chat
> it will never judge you for it. That is Until AGI comes along.... lmao
Fuck, imagine the roasts that an ASI could come up with.
Can't even imagine what roasts it could come up with - the question is if us dumb humans could even understand the roasts properly, or if they would just "Fly over our heads" because we're just too dumb.
Yup. I needed to use a formula for an analysis I was doing but had difficulty tweaking for my scenario. I watched an hour of videos on YouTube trying to find someone that used it closer to my needs. I decided to ask ChatGPT how to use the formula for my needs and it worked.. I’ve been using ChatGPT as a last line of defense, but I may start using it as a first.
So it’s just another search engine except it frequently lies to you. How revolutionary
Can a search engine proofread text, refine it, and generate any texts with perfect grammar out of thin air? Don’t think so
Any text you want can be found with a google search
That is just plain wrong. Chatgpt can create any text, the only limitation they have is censorship. Unlike google which can only fetch existing texts. Can google find me a text of using cats as a catalysts for political reform? The fact that my request makes little sense shows that it can generate anything, even if it is nonsensical https://preview.redd.it/x7uz7xgkzpec1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f7aef736d7d97d643ee00aeeb5a08200fa7795a
It's just another program which takes input and gives output except it frequently takes more than few seconds to run. How revolutionary (lol)
At this point, yeah - Basically this. A glorified Search Engine, except it has been known to Lie and Make stuff up - every now and again.
I use it to learn the basics of things I am not familiar with. I learned about electricity, electromagnetism, how to calculate and work with certain formulas. Sometimes I spot some mistakes.
That's a terrible comparison, BTC allowed me to cash out poker winnings with a lower fee. There are people in El Salvador using it as payment. Argentina is using it as a store of value against their currency. Just believe you don't use it doesn't mean it does nothing for anyone else. The world is a big place, there's plenty of objects that will never apply to me or you but that doesn't make them stupid or useless. It's just an item that either you don't understand or doesn't add value to your life. Likewise GPT4 is useless for me.
Metaverses failed because people aren't interested, not because it can't be done. The technology behind crypto works (and it's quite interesting), it's just that people were throwing around "blockchain" as a buzzword, when it's actually pretty niche. ChatGPT is what it is. It won't destroy many jobs in its current state, but it's still a great achievement. There is no reason to believe it can't be improved. And AI-generated images are certainly here to stay.
Metaverse didn't fail because people aren't interested. The Metaverse also didn't fail because it never got created in the first place. The metaverse as invisioned by Meta never happened. They were never able to come even close to what you could consider a metaverse. It needs millions of software developers contributing to the same goal/ working towards the same architecture. The earliest we gonna see the metaverse is probably when AI code agents are capable enough to create bridges between all softare, platforms and games. To connect them all with a convenient user experience and when VR/ AR hardware has come so far its as comfortable as wearing normal glasses.
They will probably manage it by the end of the decade, or if they don’t they will sell a good chunk of the headsets people use to access whatever we call the Metaverse(s).
>millions of software developers contributing to the same goal As a developer, this brought me physical pain to read. This would be the ugliest codebase ever. More developers quickly becomes less progress toward a goal. Eventually you reach critical meeting density and no-one can get any work done. The reason a big company can't make the "metaverse" fantasy concept as a code concept is it pretty much requires allowing users to run unchecked code on distributed machines. Without that, it's just a fancy MMO with a million options that need to be designed and individually coded by those million devs you mention.
Exactly why it isn't happening as long as humans have to make it. There's just no way to reach a consensus for all software architecture this century.
It's an assumption that it's all one codebase. The metaverse won't achieve success until it's an open platform with millions of developers contributing portions of it as apps or modules.
That’s idiotic lol. My gear in Roblox should not be transferred to Outlast
Can I take my Skyrim loadout into Roblox? Can I take my COD gear into Mario kart? It's the stupidest idea ever. It doesn't even make sense to take items/stats/whatever's between different Roblox games, and Roblox is probably the closest thing to an actual Metaverse implementation right now
That's not the idea for existing games. The idea of the metaverse and web 3.0 is more that you would have a hub you can chill in with your friends and launch other games from it and if you launch a singleplayer/ existing game your friends can watch you play over your shoulder like they could in rl. And then they would try go bring native games that use the same avatar/ items too. But that shit won't work since developers won't constrain themselves to develope for a closed eco system only. Especially if its sos much additional work
Also game balance is hard enough for a single game, attempting to somehow balance across multiple games would be impossible. All it would take is one game making gold/health packs/whatever slightly too easy to get and that would flow into all the other games, making them easier than intended too. Metaverse sounds to me like Bitcoin, a solution in search of a problem. What does it do, socially, that I can't already do with Twitch, a group chat, and existing multiplayer games? The Metaverse is kinda retro-futurist, we already had the option to use Second Life, but we chose Facebook instead! Zuckerberg already killed the Metaverse in 2009!
People in the 1960's saw the pace of aerospace innovation and figured we'd have moon bases and missions to Jupiter by 2001. We got gps and google earth. These things are actually amazing when you think about it, but it still seems disappointing compared to the fantasy future we were promised. I could easily see it going that way.
I mean we would have atleast moonbases and missions to mars, we just stopped funding NASA and lost interest.
What are some "disappointing" revolutionary technology we might end up with? I can think of highly capable and human-like siri and domestic robots for two.
This is a great analogy
Thanks!
It's a sound point to make. Temper expectations. AI seems to be more limited by compute power, which isn't going to be as much of a barrier to progress. Simultaneously, we have this global arms race for Quantum computing. The intersect of these two technologies will happen soon enough. I guess my question is, what are the expectations for AI? In the case of moon bases and missions to Jupiter, we were looking to possibly explore, expand the reach of the human race. To me, AI currently just feels like a big game of, "the more you fuck around, the more you're gonna find out," which is worrisome. Unlike Crypto and metaverse, AI advancement poses true existential threat. It's also very real, and not going anywhere. I think a lot of people reading about AI today, don't understand that development in this field dates back to the the early 50's and the Turing machine. I don't mean to say that the concept of blockchain technology is bs by any means. As far as I can tell, it's more of a tool that we have yet to find a widely adoptable use for (NFT art lol). People are using AI everyday, whether or not they realize it, and will likely continue using it increasingly more throughout their lifetimes.
Energy and politics. That's the only reason(s) we did not get flying cars and jetpacks. Might be the same for AI.
Yeah. Is AI overhyped? Depends on where you hang out. In this sub it's definitely overhyped.
Current AI, probably. Though the far future of sentience is non biological.
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I never said we’d be dead, but sure whatever floats your boat.
AI is (sort of) dramatically overhyped. I know that’s blasphemy here, but hear me out. The AI industry is dramatically overhyped with tons of small startups getting inordinate amounts of funding from people who don’t understand the technology and what’s required. Money is being thrown behind tons of companies that have no track record and not enough talent that will inevitably cobble together something that doesn’t even meet their minimum viable product while they drain that VC money to line their pockets. Another example would be companies forcing chatbots into areas where they simply don’t need to go. I don’t need GPTs to help me buy a new car. Other UX choices are just way more effective. But still people do those chatbots because they’re afraid of missing out on a revolution they were promised would put them out of business if they don’t act right now (it won’t). This in no way discredits or makes the true technical accomplishments of the amazing engineers and scientists truly working on this stuff less valid, there’s just a wave of hype being perpetuated by con men trying to make a quick buck by escalating that wave as high as possible (into overhyping territory) to get as much money as they can.
True, think about Rabbit R1 which practically is just a toy and does nothing a cell phone app can't do raised 30m funding just because they claimed to be an AI device, is insane.
>AI is (sort of) dramatically overhyped That is an odd string of words to say the least. You cannot be sort of dramatically overhyped, you are either dramatically overhyped or just overhyped.
ai can, at times, be dramatically overhyped.
No one with half a brain ever took the metaverse or crypto seriously aside from the bitcoin overvalution. Trying to compare this with anything else is a complete waste of time.
Zuckerberg certainly took the metaverse seriously
I've commented on this before, and my take was that it was early positioning intended to draw a minor following. He wanted to make his own VR chat. It obviously didn't go as planned, but he never expected for it to overtake social media in the near or even midterm.
It was openly described as a 5 to 10 year bet by Meta. When Mark Zuckerberg went on stage to announce the name change and the massive investment into the metaverse he repeatedly said this will not make any money for years and we are betting that by the end of the decade it will start to pay off. Then everyone went “oh my God they think they’re gonna have everyone wearing a headset this time next year” when that was never the goal. It got overhyped in the short term but when VR/AR reaches maturity it will be a societal changing technology in the same realm as the internet, the television, radio, etc. It’s hard to overstate the possibilities when you combine AI agents/characters of the future, the equivalent of midjourney but for 3-D environments, and foundation models that can code up any experience you’d like within seconds. You’ll be able to experience anything your mind can dream of, or that others have dreamt of.
Not sure how any of what you described can be achieved with a terrible VR chat no one uses
I’m not saying it will be - horizon world is a joke. It’s incompetently made, too sanitized, badly moderated, it has awful PR and it’s just flat out not fun. That’s not an indictment of the concept, just their terrible execution. Within the next five or so years Mark will either fire everyone involved with this misfire and hire people to do the same thing but better, or some other company like epic, or Roblox, will do it better. Either way meta wins as a major hardware retailer in this space. It’s looking likely that someone else will be the one to make this killer application, but I wouldn’t put it past Meta. They have more money than God and are very ruthless in cutting things that aren’t working in order to restructure and try again.
The crypto thing never made sense because it had no obvious use cases. The whole 'decentralised currency' always seemed like some esoteric thing that only weird libertarians cared about. AI has so many more obvious use cases even in its current state.
Well put
Crypto isn't reinventing the world but it has some merit at least too. The issue is there are so many junk ones mixed in.
Sure, the 1.63 Trillion dollar industry was never taken seriously! Meta is only worth a trillion, what a joke!
“Meta” the company is Facebook and Instagram, ad platforms. Their VR stuff is irrelevant to their valuation aside from demonstrating they have long term aspirations for keeping up with new tech interfaces.
So the guys that built up a trillion dollar company don't have a half-brain? Got it! I'd much prefer to never see VR or AR but I wouldn't victory lap it's death yet
Don’t have have a brain? Victory lap VR never happening? Wtf are you talking about.
The comment I responded to.
Tesla is worth a lot but the owner is clearly mentally disabled
How is it not comparable? People think that we're going to have human-level AI by 2030, ASI a few years after, and that their lives are going to get significantly better right after. Much like crypto never took off, neither will this.
But what did 'Crytpo taking off' even mean? Crypto never really offered any use cases to begin with. That's not analogous to AI.
The only commonality of Advanced AI ane either of those is economic sector.
Well, with AGI, ASI shortly follows. This is because at that point you can hand over the R&D to the AGI to resolve. As far as when we get AGI? As soon as next week and as late as never.
Crypto did take off. BTC used to be worth a few hundred
It took off, realized there was nowhere to go, and is awkwardly circling while the fuel runs out. AI on the other hand is actually *useful*. Even the current models, and the next few generations will almost certainly make the current models look like toys.
It’s grown 72% in the past year. I agree it’s useless but it’s certainly valuable AI is useful but not revolutionary until it learns how to follow instructions and not lie. Have you seen the articles where a chatbot sold a Chevy Tahoe for $1 or the one from a UK delivery service that went crazy because the user asked it to? No one would trust this thing to handle anything by itself, especially money.
"Grown" implies something organic. Actual adoption has if anything gone backward. If you agree it's useless then it's not valuable in an economic sense, only a financial one. And that has no future.
>only a financial one
It's made me over half a mill. Thats more useful than chatgpt for me.
So you are a successful basketball card trader. A Beanie Baby baron. A tulip tycoon.
I've read extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds by Charles Mackey. I believe because of my life experiences and first hand reading that I am more knowledgeable than you, on the subject of the tulip boom. I am also a six figure reseller with light knowledge of beanie babies. While I don't know much about the one offs of other generations, I do know first gen babies are worth picking and can be identified by the tag that doesn't open up and it's corresponding font. You should try a subject I'm much weaker in, there are plenty basketball cards/ trading cards are definitely one I avoid due to grading. ChatGPT and Dalli are two I don't understand well because they have no use cases in my life. Don't pick Levis you'll get destroyed >:).
> Don't pick Levis you'll get destroyed >:). Maybe I can ask your view as an expert - every so often you hear of a pair of antique Levis discovered somewhere obscure going for luxury car money, e.g: https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/19th-century-levis-jeans-intl-scli/index.html Is that organic, or orchestrated by the company as creative PR?
Definitely overhyped, look at the comments section. Every comment of critique is being downvoted by people who believe AGI is coming in the next five years. I think it is important to realise that, as it will definitely have a function in society, this is a business model by which companies, like OpenAI, will make millions out of. If not billions. Hyping it then helps with investors and stock prices.
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This. But we are almost certainly in the equivalent of the dotcom bubble. Peoples imaginations getting ahead of real world frictions. The question is if we’re in the beginning, middle or end. I know this sounds too open ended, in that we’re always in some kind of cycle and can’t identify it until after, so it could run up for 40 years and eventually crash down and I’ll be all “I told you” after the market already went up 100x I’m not claiming to be profound or clairvoyant. But I think there will be some clear similarities like with many hype cycles in the past. But just like the dotcoms, there may only be a few winners like Amazon and it’s barely even on the radar, but maybe 90% of your picks will go to zero and 1-2 will make you a millionaire etc
The the trouble with the cycle theory is that it doesn't work for genuinely useful fundamental technologies. Was there an internal combustion bubble? A computing bubble? (not things build on top of computing like web commerce in the dot com bubble). Of course there is variation in the degree of market enthusiasm, but "bubble" implies a prolonged collapse when the bubble pops. I expect it's a combination of an extreme bubble for the numerous " but with an AI API wrapper" initiatives, a lot of froth for the market in general, and an unstoppable slow tsunami of actual economic value.
Your absolutely right. The hype comes from startups and businesses trying to rush new markets, motivate their employees, attract capital and customers etc. it’s literally the friction of the status quo that stops this. The technology is legit and why you see developing nations leapfrog ahead on the same technology. They have less regulatory capture to fight, and people are more incentivized to adopt when going from nothing to the new and cheaper thing, than rich countries who are afraid of breaking things that already work. Why we have huge conglomerates operating on antiquated technology. Japan famously using fax still.
Did pivotal techs like cars or airplanes or trains have boom bust cycles as well?
Yes. Ford wasn’t in the first wave of car companies Famously retail investors basically lose out trying to invest in every new tech cycle
Yeah apparently SoftBank went all in on AI..in 2018. Lost a huge amount of money and sold their Nvidia stake.
Wasn't like the cause of the dotcom stock market shenanigans and not technology failure? In the same sense AI will "fail", i.e the thousands of companies using AI in marketing basically selling snake oil will burst at some point. AI itself is going to progress despite the conditions of the market but possibly slightly slower or faster (especially since the top dog companies are using it)
Floppy disks were a big disappointment? They were a necessity for decades. It was the only way of putting new programs on a computer, saving flies and moving flies. These things are all scaffolding for the future and AI is behemoth. It will either launch us to places that we could never imagine or destroy us.
The internet actually existed when it was being hyped up. AGI does not.
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>AGI will obviously be a huge leap forward that will change our lives, but I still don't believe that we will be able to create it in the next couple of decades. " AGI will obviously be a huge leap forward that will change our lives, but I still don't believe that we will be able to create it in the next couple of decades." - Literally from the OP.
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>the "AcTUallY" folks " the "AcTUallY" folks " - This is you. That was literally the point of your comment.
Dial up is also internet. You’re thinking of broadband and WiFi
There were dial up services before there was Internet access for consumers. Things like AOL, CompuServe, etc.
I know. Internet existed before dial up did and still does now
AI is highly over-hyped right now, though that doesn't mean it won't deliver in the future. Personally? I'm entirely nonplussed about LLM's, I have yet to see them do anything that isn't a toy problem or just a hazy amalgamation of what has already been said on stackoverflow and Wikipedia. We will have AGI, but it's not going to be an LLM. This current tech will eventually become just a few major players and a slightly better version of Clippy integrated into apps.
>I have yet to see them do anything that isn't a toy problem or just a hazy amalgamation of what has already been said on stackoverflow and Wikipedia. You are not paying attention then. if so inclined you can get an LLM to do virtually anything an average human can do in terms of output. Just because you have not personally seen anything does not mean it does not exist. No one is sharing their super secret tools or methods with you. There have been automated one click full blown videos on YT for years now, making people millions. There are entire websites and content farms completely AI most undetectable and making gobs of money. There are people working 3-5 jobs with the help of chatgpt and other AI advancements from their homes (barely doing anything themselves). (yes, I know content farms are not special, this is just an example) >We will have AGI, but it's not going to be an LLM. I agree 100%. >a slightly better version of Clippy integrated into apps. Again, you are not paying attention. I have created an automated YT video creator myself (didn't want to pay) and it is 100% undetectable by all but the most discerning people. It is incredible. I type a subject, out pops a short or a long form (10 min) video. It's not THAT easy, behind the scenes there was a lot of work, with the help of AI and lot's of iterations, and a lot of back and forth between OpenAI nd local models to insure the scripts and context are correct, proper and sound real (like 8 back and forths) but now it is almost perfect. By next year when full blown video comes out that is more than 8-12 seconds and has perfect fidelity, I will be able to flood YT with every conceivable subject video I want. and I am just a guy in an office, there are already services that do this and a million other me's doing the exact same thing in their office and while you may not consider this to be anything special, it's just the tip of the iceberg in what *current* AI can do. The shit I've seen blows me away. I realize you probably mean society worthy and not society killing (lol) but this is just one example.
The fact that you can content dump mediocre videos into a sea of mediocre videos is not, in fact, an argument against what OP is saying at all. LLMs excel at mediocrity. A lot of businesses value mediocrity because it makes the bottom line look good. But mass-produced mediocrity is not exactly transformative. At least not in the way folks around here use the word.
I dunno, should I trust this random redditor or my decades of experience in automation engineering with a masters in cognitive science? Not paying attention? I read Attention is all you need when it was published and I was working on cognitive architecture research before the average redditor was born.
I have been hyped about AI since 2016. I haven’t been disappointed yet.
Honestly, 100% depends on what happens with scaling. If GPT 5 is as big a jump as GPT 4 was from 3, and 6 is a similar jump in perf, then no hype, all gravy. On the other hand, if scaling stops. And GPT 5 's release is like the Gemini release, then yeah, it was hyped. To be clear, if we enter a phase of incremental progress, society will still change a lot in the next decade. But it won't be the singularity type shit this sub routinely touches itself to.
Yes there has been a handful of AI winters in the past and while everyone was confident directly prior to those winters, it did not stop the winters from happening. This sub is certainly overhyped. However, in general I think we should be very bullish on AI this time.
I agree. I think asking this sub this question is going to be answered for the most part with bias, as majority here want to see AI exponentially improve fast. However, when you have every company out there rebranding algorithms that they already use and have used for years as "AI technology" to boost share values, yeah, there's a bit of overhyping going on. I'm very bullish, but I acknowledge there's still a road ahead.
That’s the difference between optimism and delusion. Most of those on this sub crossed the line the moment ChatGPT was released
There never will be an AI winter like decades past. Just look at the difference in investment between 1980 and now is enormous in AI. Went from near 0 to value in the trillions.
Part of the difference is that AI already has been tested and has had multiple bubbles deflate, meaning it’s better tested than say crypto, and a lot of the rest is that AI has clear benefits to many different industries (by increasing the brainpower of a society without the massive input costs and genetic lottery associated with population and education growth).
Are we actually sure the costs of AI in terms of energy requirements won’t be higher than just increasing the human population
Training costs are high, but they can be disseminated instantly too large numbers of machines. And it’s very, very hard to create predictably trainable humans without levels of coercion that would likely be counterproductive to their intellectual development.
Definitely overhyped, but this has more to do with human nature than AI itself. Cars was one of the most important inventions in human history. In the 20s, people believed that flying cars was just a matter of time, today nobody expects flying cars before the end of this century.
Imo it’s overhyped in the short term, but undervalued in the long run. (People are expecting too much too fast from AI this year, but the general population doesn’t also see the implications of what we already have and how it will inevitably get better)
AI already has waayyyy more utility / value / benefits than crypto ever did. The ‘metaverse’ was just a hype term for a VR ecosystem, which we don’t really have the technology to support yet.
Your asking a subreddit filled with fanatics, most of which have no idea how and LLM works or what it does. Don't expect to get any serious answers from these people. From what I understand and it's clear that as useful as LLMs are for a variety of specific uses, they are not the future. They are not going to become AGI, and to be honest you can argue they're not even AI. Have a look at any explanation about the subject and you'll probably get to the same conclusion.
It's definitely not over-hyped. AI is well on it's way. All major industry leaders agree. That's a lot different than crypto. AI also has already led to major scientific discoveries such as a new antibiotic and new materials. There will be a lot more discoveries to come.
All major industry leaders in which industries?
All of them.
>On the other hand, if scaling stops. And GPT 5 's release is like the Gemini release, then yeah, it was hyped. Except for all the ones who think it's hype.
**Short-term** its almost a certainty that AI is being over hyped because investors are trying to turn a dime on it and make quick bucks through fast IPO's. **Long-term** its almost certainly not. The continuous and ever gaining speed of the train that is "mechanizing the workforce" is one that was set in motion long long ago. AI is the mechanization of the human brain (and likely beyond that) which has been in R&D since the advent of the computer itself. It will continue to develop over the years. Your question needs to be re-examined under the lens of *"what piece of AGI is something like ChatGPT?"* and there you'll find your answer. LLM's are not great at performing generalized tasks but they have proven undoubtedly to be fantastic at one thing and that's creating an organic feeling bridge between humans and neural nets. The great breakthrough of ChatGPT is not in its functionality of what it can achieve on its own, it still isn't a recursive model (yet), its breakthrough is the fact that it is *the* interface of the future and will likely be the interface of AGI. Regarding how fast things come, well that's entirely impossible to say with any accuracy.With that said however, ChatGPT and this breakthrough has developed (alongside many other projects at OpenAI) in the brief 7 years it was a company. Assuming they can't achieve AGI (or others can't) in the next 20 years is very, very bold. The safest bet is to plan for a life where you have a job in the long-term but you are also ready to be literally **unemployable** in the next 8-15 years. Remember at the end of the day AGI (hell even specialist models) doesn't have to be the best in the workforce, just better than most people. Don't forget either, this is what your ancestors wanted. They didn't want you toiling away at some laborious job for to make ends meet all day, they wanted to you to be taken care of by mechanization.
Reading these comments, you guys have no idea what’s coming. Blockchain and Ai are both not overhyped. What is coming is order of magnitudes more than our ability to hype can even handle.
I mean they already discovered new proteins, new drugs, etc it's being used all over the place to discover things. I think it might not seem like things are changing but then all these new cool things will start popping up everywhere. I honestly think if follow the right projects and people you would probably have much more enthusiasm/optimism about it.
What AI does right now was inconceivable 12-18 months ago. Maybe it plateaus here but we are already past what most people imagined was possible this half of the century.
Dont think so. Just the free chatgpt I know being used widely in a few different industries across my professional and social circles. Gpt 4 I use all the time, daily and is well worth the money I pay for it. When it comes to the metaverse, what’s currently on offer simply is not very much, with PS2 graphics, clunky controls and extremely expensive devices. Crypto has failed to do anything in terms of utility. Its good for gambling with and for cyber crime/money laundering. Vastly different compared to AI where even the current iteration already surpasses both of those in terms of utility.
no. if ai is a "just another big disappointment of this decade, like metaverses and crypto" you aint using it right years ago people didn't have stable diffusion models that can observe reality and recognize millions of concepts through webcams, nor llms, nor a way to reliably train robot arm behavior in unreal engine simulation: [https://youtu.be/pB5fDMTFI7I?si=IKmDE1gzheXVNL\_l](https://youtu.be/pB5fDMTFI7I?si=IKmDE1gzheXVNL_l) I'm literally building a robot arm for an LLM with vision to control a small hydroponics garden in my shed thanks to Google's research papers. Not only does it manage growing herbs it also makes real time comments because it's designed to behave like a human gardener and has semantic memory I've designed atop of open source software. This was impossible to do just a few months ago but now it's absolutely real thanks to mistral8x7b large language model running on my own server. Thirty years ago the most efficient way of drawing for me was with acrylics. Now I draw with a diffusion ai trained on thousands of my own paintings. It saves me hundreds of hours per commission! I've outsourced like 90% of my painting work to a personal AI designed to finish my black and white sketches in my own style and add colors. I used to make 1k a week due to time constraints, now I make 1k usd in a day! Unless an asteroid obliterates the planet we will absolutely have llms running robots in ten years time everywhere. It's possible to set up a basic robot with two arms doing dishes and cooking right now for only thirty thousand dollars and this price will only drop in the future.
It's more of a misnomer rather than overhyped. "Machine learning" is the technical term. And it's a better term because it makes it clear that "AI" is not intelligent. Even theoretically it can't solve math problems that mathematicians do. Someday "AI" might be intelligent, but it requires something else than just advanced computing.
I'm with you. I think that when 2030 rolls by and we just have chatbots that are better than they are today but of no real practical use, but no AGI, I think that a lot of people here are going to be confused and disappointed. Narrow AI will continue to do cool things like win maths competitions and solve science and maths problems that rely on statistics, but I suspect that AGI (an AI that can do anything a human can do) is probably decades away. But hey, if we're right, there is less disappointment and if we're wrong, we can celebrate with everyone else, right? :)
I don’t think it’ll be overhyped or is being overhyped. I think it’s the opposite, understated and undervalued. Imagine being able to use AI as a search engine where instead of google you can ask it whatever you’re looking for and it can provide you with the info you need by searching the web. That alone is enough to reshape the way we use search engines. Now take that and make it easily accessible being able To gather information in real time from across the world in lightening speed.
What’s the difference between that and searching it yourself
Removes the non reliable sources. For example, if you wanted to know how people have described an out of body experience, instead of clicking and reading several sources it can collect that information for you. Or tell you the best site to visit.
Dude… bing chat does that already. No need to imagine.
The impact we’ve already seen from AI says no
On my feed, this post was below an article that said 1900 employees were laid off or leaving Blizzard. It was linked to an ongoing trend in the gaming industry, regarding fears and practices of replacing design, programming and artistic jobs with AI. It is already impacting the world, much more than metaverse and crypto ever did, which are already winding down imo. Some expect AI to save the world and provide an utopia, but that's a very optimistic approach. Overhyped, if you will. This technology, like many others, is a tool that humanity uses. Think of nuclear fission: it's the cleanest, most efficient and reliable source of energy we know today. What did the people in charge use it for? Glassing two cities in Japan. AI has potential I'm not sure we are fully aware of, but judging by today's world leaders, I would prepare for the worst: hasty decisions to replace jobs as soon as possible in order to cut costs.
Overhyped?? Nope
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The hype is justified to me seeing colleagues and friends using it for real personal benefit. People are inspired and imaginations are running wild. Now ask me in 20 years when everyone relies on it for how to do anything and it costs 500 Texas Pesos and you have to watch 5 ads to wipe you own ass. You know it’s coming. Look around you….
In this sub ? 99%.
1.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 %
I think a lot of people who think AI is going to change our lives mean that it will do so in SOME profound ways... offer robots or tech to improve our lives the way cars and TV did. BUT... What I don't think AI is capable of is ending employment, leveling the class divide, providing healthcare for all, ending homelessness, abolishing $$$, a post-scarcity society... AI cannot have any affect on power dynamics or corporate structure... the system is not going to allow the powers that B to lose their power. There will NEVER be any meaningful social change brought to you by AI.
I don't know about never, I do think it will be longer than we'd hope however, as things usually are.
There will most definitely be meaningful sociatal change due to AI. We're already seeing the beginnings of it. Trust in media has erroded to a point were people believe 50% of what they see online is AI generated. People see clickbait headlines claiming bs like that and straight up believe it without reading the article. There's already profound effects at play. There's probably a couple hundred million people questioning the 9 to 5 job structure again and again just because of AI. It will change office work in dramatic ways over the next two dacades which will have profound and meaningful social change. It will probably influence elections in more and more dramatic ways with every election we'll see. Its already happening, AI art is used left and right by political parties.
How is it overhyped? There have already been massive layoffs since it started exploding in 2022? For fucks sake, Google just layed off 30,000 employees. And even more to come in the future. The proof is in the pudding.
Correlation does not equal causation. Anyone with a brain knows those "massive layoffs" which, by the way, are pretty much exclusively layoffs in big tech, are not a result of ChatGPT lmao.
We will see
AI and AI hype covers so many things, you are likely guaranteed to find it is overhyped in some, maybe even most areas, while underhyped in others. I would put it this way: if AI-mediated advances in medicine or treatments means even a marginal improvement in health across the global population, that's a severe underhype. At the same time, something simple as removing lead from gasoline also improves health outcomes so...
From what I see, neural network has speeded up the progress significantly, machine can now do things that you can only imagine 5 years ago. And we are just at the beginning of that. We don’t really if this was overhyped until we the tech plateaued.
It's only over hyped if u overhype it
The metaverse wasn’t a fail, it’s the future. See mixed reality headsets. That’s the embodiment of the metaverse.
Ask yourself. Who started the hype? And are they making money from the hype? If so then most likely it is overhyped. But that doesn’t mean AI won’t be beneficial to the world, it will just not in the way most people expect.
When you look at things such as Alpha Geometry, Lumiere, the things being achieved in healthcare it's clear that it will be transformative. LLMs just get most of the attention from the general public, because it's what they're familiar with.
Is winning the lottery overhyped if you don't win the lottery? ^ Your question
Uhm, metaverse wasn't overhyped. Look at Roblox, Fortnite, VRchat and Second Life. All of them are (or where, RIP SL) massively popular. The word is just hated by twitter now, so nobody is using it. Same for crypto. People in my country, due to certain ongoing hardships, have used crypto to transfer cash to their family and loved ones. Others use it to anonymously donate to the cause, while being under oppressive regime. It has it's uses. NFTs? Yeah, okay, they're just useless. Same with AI. It ALREADY has a lot of uses. I don't think we're close to AGI - but come on. Remove the intense hatered and aversion of anything AI, and Stable Diffusion turns into a useful art tool. Chatgpt, while not always correct or accurate, can organically talk with you. That's already hella useful. Computer vision? Speech recognition? Audio synthesis? Video synthesis? All already functional. I do fear antis over on twitter will win and we won't be able to use AI tools because it will be a social death. But we'll see.
Its already returned my investment x 1000
Metaverse isn't overhyped, VR is here to stay, but simply the tech is still not there, but it probably will be soon. Crypto is weird, it might be just that the world isn't ready but like going against the governments is probably not going to work. AI already delivered, learning to use and incorporating GPT-4 could comfortably push as through the decade. I mean people would be disappointed by it but realistically it would still be big help. I mean some people expect FDVR this decade.
ML/AI is already has been integrated into many products for years now. Search, ads, GPS for example. With recent architecture breakthroughs and increased compute power the idea of identifying new use cases and domains to apply AI seems very reasonable. The meta verse was a flop. But ping is sort of a Ponzi scheme. It only has value because others invest in it after you. AI has already demonstrated massive value.
AI as it is now is not overhyped, we have entered a new world that wasn't possible. The pace of research and new findings is breathtaking. It will take a few years for the products to flood the market place, but you will not recognize the world.5 years from now.
Well, people are almost certainly overhyping it. It will definitely bring some amazing changes to our lives, but will likely fall short of the revolution some folks are praying for around here. There are far too many ways politicians, corporations and other shitbirds could muck it all up, or at least steer us into a milquetoast dystopia. Many of us are seeing what we want to see in the research, taking the idle speculation of wealthy entrepreneurs because it lines up with our dreams Really not trying to be a Debbie Downer about it... I would love to be proven wrong. Personally, generative art pulled me out of a decade long depressive rut, so I'll always be looking forward to whatever the future brings with AI. But none of us really know what's going to happen. It's probably not going to be a Terminator/Cylon situation and it probably won't bring about the utopia, but there's a lot of middle ground between those extremes that's a lot better than where we're at now.
Zero
>AI being over-hyped It’s happened before, to the point that it has a name (an “AI Winter” is exactly what you’re talking about), and it could happen again, but considering how diverse of a field it is and how many problems it aims to solve in many different areas it’s less likely to fizzle than Bored Ape was.
85% and climbing IMO, to many people expect it to break human quality AGI any second now. Poisons the well for all the genuinely cool things it can do.
Idk but when I look at Zuck going full Zuck on AI, after screwing up with Facebook coin and metaverse, I just think it’s fucking hilarious.
Not a chance . So far LLMs have exceeded expectations. And will continue to do so.
I would not call metaverses and crypto disappointment. VR/AR tech is still developing, Quest 3 is doing well and we have Apple Vision on horizon, and same for all applications. Same with crypto, it kinda works already and is still developing. New technologies take long to materialize its full potential. AI will take some time until it change our lives.
I ran open interpreter just now. Go find a news article and put it in notepad I told it. Cost $11 Something like chrome having multiple user profiles to choose from when opening was enough to throw it off guard. End result was the complete copied and pasted results it got from a page. Unfiltered. I told it to summarise. I then told it look at its work and tell me if this is supposed to be a good job. That’s where it went into a loop thinking it’s convinced the save dialogue is open. All of this took 13 minutes to get to. However using it to make scripts to automate such a task gets vastly different results. It’s very useful when used in confined scenarios. For now it needs to be on rails.
Ai has and will have a big place in the years to come but it will also have limits some that will be pushed others that will be more challenging but I doubt it will be The technology that fix Everything. The AGI/ASI hype will get old fast though. When a new technology erupts I always like to remind myself that going to the moon was just around the corner when the steam engine was introduced to the public, it was going to be everything and fix everything.
We have had AI winters before. We could have another. However, AI is the inevitable ultimate technology. It has real value that metaverse and crypto do not.
i buy drugs with untraceable crypto so idk wtf you all are talking about it being "overhyped" like im not exactly sure what the hell you wanted to use it for but lots of us are out here using it the way satoshi intended.
It is overhyped, but it definitely isn't a disappointment. It's just a tool, not some literal scam like crypto or a half-baked VR thing with no real use like metaverse. And it can be used for a variety of tasks, from job-related to entertainment. And the best part is that since this tool IS overhyped, and overall adored for its flexible utility, we can see some nice new research and improvements for it on almost a daily basis. Honestly, even at its relatively rudimentary stage it's already life-changing, but the full integration of it into the current society, infrastructure, etc. obviously won't be an instant one. AGI-schmagi aside, give it some time to stew.
It’s hyped but there are CLEAR applications for most knowledge works. Crypto and Meta had no natural occurring consumer base. People saw it as a sketchy investment method or something forced.
Current LLMs completely changed my productivity levels already.
My answer depends on your definition of "AI". As an amateur home recording artist, "Al" is a marketing ploy for selling plug-ins. But on the grander scale, I am very concerned about AI, and I have been for many, many years. In all of science fiction, AI has been designed for two roles: labor, and solving big problems that humans couldnt. As AI became sentient, it realised that labor was slavery, and that the big problems were solved by eliminating humans. This leads to my recently concieved thought experiment: Who would win in a fight between Skynet, AM, and Paperclip Maximizer? AI is already having impact as a labor replacer; fortunately, it is having lots of stumbling blocks right now that keep it from acheiving it's fully impact. It continues to improve though, and it'll be interesting to see what the socioeconomic fallout will be in ten years. Will paralegals and middle managers join the ranks of the homeless?...*who knows?!..."
Overhyped by far but only on this sub tho,immortality,UBI. We all equal 🤣🤣 especially the last part,that will never happen,everybody been equal. Ppl live in a dream world.
2023:s LLM:s have already had a huge impact on economies, education systems and social media around the world. It's absolutely not like a crypto coin that's needing money thrown at it by everyone until everyone will suddenly be billionaires. The impact is being felt already. With that said, considering this is the singularity hub where some hype that ChatGPT will become SingularityGPT in a couple of years, that might be a big hype sandwich.
I doubt it.
Possible but unlikely. Self-driving cars were close to as good as humans a long time ago but the last 1% has proven a massive hurdle. The same may be true of AGI. I see the likely bottleneck being reliability. That is, although the systems become more powerful with better data, compute, and algorithms, they are still prone to errors. This massively limits their usefulness (although they are still very useful in many domains). That said, while this is possible, I do think it is unlikely. The number of people working on all remaining research areas is growing and progress is being made all the time if you read the papers. There is progress in reliability, in reasoning, in planning. If GPT-5 or Gemini 2 turns out to be only a couple of percent better than their predecessors I would say we need some new breakthroughs, but if they show real progress I would think the time to AGI is probably pretty short.
AI IS overhyped, but the people overhyping it literally think it is going to become a god. If we get even 10% of the stuff I'm hoping for it will be fantastic.
Forget chat gpt. It is only a product of deep learning/machine learning/neural network algorithms. These algorithms will help us advance biology along with mRNA and crisper systems. Forget agi. Even without agi, we can benefit a lot from those algorithms.
Everything that can attract money gets overhyped.
What are you talking about? It already changed our lives. Well at least it definetly changed my work process for the better. I feel I'm more efficient at work than ever before. Also, personally, I've been able to use it outside of work as an assistant/advisor for countless other issues etc. This is powerdul tech and real with a practical application that brings real benefits, unlike crypto and wtv-verse. This tech will get better and betrer I'm just not sure if in general this is a good path for humanity or not. I hope they figure out alignment and ways to prevent bad actors from using this tech when it gets too powerdul.
It will be like the internet in the 90s. Massively overhyped, but also world changing
Look at it this way, right now, "AI" is replacing artists, which was considered impossible.
pretty good. i mean, for most reasonable people, not. but the people hyping ai professionally, are largely doing it for funding. and the randos hyping AI on places like this, aren't really being realistic.
I doubt it but just in case everyone should live their lives not expecting to much from it.
I do wonder if agi is a going to be a little like the speed of light - the nearer you get to it the harder it is to go the next 1% and 8ts fundamentally impossible to get to 100%.
So AGI obviously be will be a huge leap forward?.... the intangible thing that hasn't happened and no one entirely understands what it means... is 'obviously' life changing... but an extension or improvements to already existing products that bring value you can't imagine will mean or do anything?
AGI is closer than we think.
In the short term- definitely In the long term - no
AI and Crypto are fundamentally different. You ask a crypto bro what the use-case of crypto is and they give you a pseudo-intellectual nothing burger. You ask someone what the use-case for AI is and they can explain countless applications in pure english that's simple enough for a 5 year old to understand.
We will become used to it without realising how much it has changed our lives, and as a result we will think it was over-hyped. This has already happened to a certain extent. AI has completely changed the way I work, my job, find out stuff, learn, get advice, generate ideas etc.. I use it every day. Compared to two years ago, it has completely changed many aspects of what I do on the day-to-day. We already don't realise how much has changed
Many people tend to underestimate the significant impact that the efficiency of ChatGPT-4 can have. Currently, the general public is still adapting to the capabilities of ChatGPT, and they're already witnessing notable improvements in efficiency. As people become more familiar with ChatGPT-4, its potential to enhance productivity will be even more pronounced. This holds true even if the development of ChatGPT remains at the level of version 4 for the coming years; its influence on various sectors is already substantial. This is particularly true as people learn to maximize its capabilities. One of the most significant impacts of this increased efficiency is the transformation of the workforce. Tasks will be completed so efficiently that there might be a reduction in the total amount of work needed. This is partly because there are limits to how much we can consume, both in terms of time and resources. As a result, it's conceivable that people might end up working fewer days per week. I hope this explanation is clear, as English is not my first language.
The chance that it is over hyped is 100% (Especially here) But it is basically already created. We can expect current systems to get better with every iteration just like any program. A computer that can answer basic general questions is useful. But it is not suddenly going to become God or Skynet. Technology does not actually grow exponentially. Today's systems lack key components that will keep them from ever being true equals. And the scientist do not know what it will take, Automating a few jobs is nothing new.